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Risk Management
Comprehensive Notes
Teacher Name:
Nasir M. Iqbal
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Notes By Nasir M. Iqbal, MBA-IRM, MBA Fin., PGD App..Eco, Cert. CII. E: nasiriq1974@yahool.com, T: 03214004203
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Notes By Nasir M. Iqbal, MBA-IRM, MBA Fin., PGD App..Eco, Cert. CII. E: nasiriq1974@yahool.com, T: 03214004203
Definition of Risk
Consider the following statements, each giving a different slant to the term ‘risk’:
● Unpredictability;
● Possibility of loss
Consider for example the many risks associated with owning a car. These include:
The first refers to the contingency e.g. – the fire risk, the theft risk and so on.
The second use of the term relates to the thing (or liability) context the ‘risk’ could
be a factory, or a manufacturer’s liability to the public.
Attitude to risk:
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Notes By Nasir M. Iqbal, MBA-IRM, MBA Fin., PGD App..Eco, Cert. CII. E: nasiriq1974@yahool.com, T: 03214004203
Components of risk:
In order to gain a deeper understanding of the meaning of risk, we must now take a
closer look at the various components of risk. These include:
1- Uncertainty
2- Level Of Risk
3- Peril And Hazard
1- Uncertainty
The concept of uncertainty implies doubt about the future, as a result of our
incomplete Knowledge. Uncertainty is at the very core of the concept of risk for, if
we know what is going to happen, there is no element of risk involved. If you know
that your house will burn down at 4.00 p.m. tomorrow, or that on the way home
you will have an accident in the car, there is no risk of the event happening, as the
event would become a certainty. As we do not have this prior knowledge, we can
say that we live in an uncertain or risky environment and that risks exist
separately from the individual.
2- Level Of Risk
The second aspect of risk relates to the different levels of risk that exist. We know
that there is a greater likelihood of some things happening than others and this is
what we mean by the level of the risk involved. Risk is usually assessed in terms of:
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Notes By Nasir M. Iqbal, MBA-IRM, MBA Fin., PGD App..Eco, Cert. CII. E: nasiriq1974@yahool.com, T: 03214004203
The concept of peril and hazard together form the final aspect of risk. This aspect
relates to the causes of losses:
A hazard can be defined as that which influences the operation or effect of the
peril.
What Is Peril?
● Probable cause (such as an earthquake, fire, theft) that exposes a person or
property to the risk of damage, injury, or loss, and against which an
insurance cover (policy) is purchased.
Types Of Peril
1- Human Perils
These are the man-made perils e.g. fire, theft, terrorism, strike riot etc.
2- Economic Perils
The perils which are originate from economy of a country e.g. Inflation,
Unemployment, Economic instability etc.
3- Natural Perils
The peril which is act of God. The natural perils include: rain, hurricane, wind,
earthquake or flood and many others.
What Is Hazard?
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Notes By Nasir M. Iqbal, MBA-IRM, MBA Fin., PGD App..Eco, Cert. CII. E: nasiriq1974@yahool.com, T: 03214004203
● A hazard is a situation in the workplace that has the potential to harm the health
and safety of people or to damage plant and equipment.
● A hazard is any biological, chemical, mechanical, environmental or physical
agent that is reasonably likely to cause harm or damage to humans, other
organisms.
The meaning of the word hazard can be confusing. Often dictionaries do not give
specific definitions or combine it with the term "risk". For example, one dictionary
defines hazard as "a danger or risk" which helps explain why many people use the
terms interchangeably.
There are many definitions for hazard but the more common definition when
talking about workplace health and safety is:
Basically, a hazard can cause harm or adverse effects (to individuals as health
effects or to organizations as property or equipment losses).
Sometimes a hazard is referred to as being the actual harm or the health effect it
caused rather than the hazard. For example, the disease tuberculosis (TB) might be
called a hazard by some but in general the TB-causing bacteria would be
considered the "hazard" or "hazardous biological agent".
Types of Hazard:
Physical hazard is a physical condition that increases the possibility of a loss. Thus,
smoking is a physical hazard that increases the likelihood of a house fire and illness.
Moral hazards are losses that results from dishonesty. Moral hazards (most of
which are avoidable), like dishonesty (such as burning down the warehouse when
your company goes bankrupt to collect insurance money Thus, insurance
companies suffer losses because of fraudulent or inflated claims.
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Notes By Nasir M. Iqbal, MBA-IRM, MBA Fin., PGD App..Eco, Cert. CII. E: nasiriq1974@yahool.com, T: 03214004203
Legal hazard can also result from laws or regulations that force insurance
companies to cover risks that they would otherwise not cover, such as including
coverage for alcoholism in health insurance.
Morale hazard because it increases the possibility of a loss that results from
the insured worrying less about losses. Therefore, they take fewer
precautions and may engage in riskier activities—because they have
insurance.
A hazard is any condition or situation that makes it more likely that a peril
will occur and spread the loss
Categories of risks:
It does not follow that, having identified a risk, it will automatically be insurable.
Not every type of risk or eventuality is insurable. It will help our understanding if
we look at (and contrast) different types of risk to identify those that are insurable
and those that are not. The groupings that we will look at are:
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Notes By Nasir M. Iqbal, MBA-IRM, MBA Fin., PGD App..Eco, Cert. CII. E: nasiriq1974@yahool.com, T: 03214004203
Some of the risks that we face are not capable of financial measurement. They may
have a financial aspect to them, but it is incidental. The real risk arises from
decisions and actions motivated by other considerations. Take for example the
choice of a marriage partner or our enjoyment of a holiday. We cannot measure
these in financial terms,
1- Property risk affects either personal or real property. Thus, a house fire or car
theft are examples of property risk. A property loss often involves both a direct
loss and consequential losses
● A direct loss is the loss or damage to the property itself.
● A consequential loss(indirect loss) is a loss created by the direct loss.
Thus, if your car is stolen, that is a direct loss; if you have to rent a car
because of the theft, then you have some financial loss—a
consequential loss—from renting a car.
2- Legal risk (liability risk) is a particular type of personal risk that you will
be sued because of neglect, malpractice, or causing willful injury either to
another person or to someone else's property. Legal risk is the possibility
of financial loss if you are found liable, or the financial loss incurred just
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Notes By Nasir M. Iqbal, MBA-IRM, MBA Fin., PGD App..Eco, Cert. CII. E: nasiriq1974@yahool.com, T: 03214004203
defending yourself, even if you are not found liable. Most personal,
property, and legal risks are insurable.
3- Economic risks, such as unemployment, are also fundamental risks
because they affect many people.
4- Enterprise risk is the set of all risks that affects a business enterprise.
5- Strategic risk results from goal-oriented behavior. A business may want
to try to improve efficiency by buying new equipment or trying a new
technique, but may result in more losses than gains.
6- Operational risks arise from the operation of the enterprise, such as the
risk of injury to employees, or the risk that customer’s data can be leaked
to the public because of insufficient security.
10 -Liquidity Risk – if you have some bonds that you would like to sell for
immediate requirement but there is no buyer or fewer buyers than sellers –
you may have to sell your bonds at discount.
11 - Execution risk – the time between when you see your price and when the
trade actually goes to the market.
12 - Information Risk – This is again a very important risk to understand. You take
your financial decisions based on some information – this information is
provided either by manufacturer of financial products or
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Notes By Nasir M. Iqbal, MBA-IRM, MBA Fin., PGD App..Eco, Cert. CII. E: nasiriq1974@yahool.com, T: 03214004203
13 - Timing risk: - You are too early or too late to the market.
14 - Market Risk: Market risk is the risk in which value of an investment will
decrease due to move in market risk factors. The standard market risk
factors are interest rate, commodities prices, foreign exchange rate,
stocks indices etc.
Let us look at some examples of financial risks to help us understand this concept:
Let us look at some examples of pure risks to help us understand this concept:
1- Risk of fire
2- Risk of machinery breakdown
3- Risk of injury to employees at work
Fundamental Risk There are some risks that occur on such a vast scale that they
are uninsurable. Take for example the risk of famine, economic recession or a more
general risk – that of war.
Particular risks are localized or even personal in their cause and effect. Sometimes
the cause may be more widespread (a storm over a whole region), but the effect is
localized or even related to an individual. For example, not all properties in the
region will have been damaged.
1- Factory fire
2- Car collision
3- Theft of personal possessions from a home
There are some risk which are generate through organization internal source like
fire in a store room or theft.
There are some risk which are generate through external means like office
damaged due to fire in public transformer or due to strike.
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Notes By Nasir M. Iqbal, MBA-IRM, MBA Fin., PGD App..Eco, Cert. CII. E: nasiriq1974@yahool.com, T: 03214004203
There are some risk which are generate due to organizational noncompliance
behavior like third party risk or Contractual Liabilities.
Calculation Of Risk
Situations are sometimes more complex than the simple binary possibility case. In
a situation with several possible accidents, total risk is the sum of the risks for each
different accident, provided that the outcomes are comparable:
Risk Perception
Risk perception is the subjective judgement that people make about the
characteristics and severity of a risk.
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Notes By Nasir M. Iqbal, MBA-IRM, MBA Fin., PGD App..Eco, Cert. CII. E: nasiriq1974@yahool.com, T: 03214004203
There are the following feature or factors which are associate with risk perception.
1- Voluntariness
2- Controllability
3- Delay
4- Man Made and Nature Risk
5- Familiarity
6- Expected Benefits
7- Media
8- Dread And Unknown Risk
Voluntariness
Controllability
People are more willing to accept risk they think they can control. Risk that are out
of our control are more frightening because we cannot influence their outcome .
Delay
If the effect of risk is far in to the future we are may be more willing to accept that
risk now and vice versa.
Man-made and natural risk perceive differently, in case of man-made risk people
are more willing to avoid risk as compare to natural process can be accepted as a
act of God or fate.
Familiarity
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Notes By Nasir M. Iqbal, MBA-IRM, MBA Fin., PGD App..Eco, Cert. CII. E: nasiriq1974@yahool.com, T: 03214004203
Familiarity with risk also affects our perception, for example a good driver is ready
to accept risk pertaining to high speed vehicles.
Expected Benefit
Expected benefit also influence our view of risk. We have already seen that driving,
for example a known high risk is accepted because of the overriding benefit of
getting quickly from one place to another place.
Media
Finally, perception of risk was influenced by the media. Risks are not in the media
are not seen as important as those that are. Right or wrong we think risks must be
important if the media has chosen to cover them.
Unknown risks are those less generally known, with limited knowledge of the risk,
perhaps with delayed effects and where the risk type is new.
Stakeholder:
Person, group, or organization that has direct or indirect stake in an organization
because it can affect or be affected by the organization’s actions, objectives, and
policies. Key stakeholders in a business organization include creditors, customers,
directors, employees, government (and its agencies), owners (shareholders),
suppliers, unions, and the community from which the business draws its resources.
Although stake-holding is usually self-legitimizing (those who judge themselves to
be stakeholders are de facto so), all stakeholders are not equal and different
stakeholders are entitled to different considerations. For example, a firm's
customers are entitled to fair trading practices but they are not entitled to the
same consideration as the firm's employees.
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Notes By Nasir M. Iqbal, MBA-IRM, MBA Fin., PGD App..Eco, Cert. CII. E: nasiriq1974@yahool.com, T: 03214004203
Types Of Stakeholders
Example Of Stakeholders
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Notes By Nasir M. Iqbal, MBA-IRM, MBA Fin., PGD App..Eco, Cert. CII. E: nasiriq1974@yahool.com, T: 03214004203
New forms of risk management consider both pure and speculative loss exposures.
risk management process will be wasted. This is the challenge for the risk
manager to extract out the useful and the best information from the available
information and then shape the information in such a way, that it useful in
identifying the risk. Risk manager should also make sure that the information
he acquires is from a trusted source, wrong information will lead to a wrong
risk management process.
There are various techniques which are used to identify the risk, to decide
which technique to use will depend upon certain questions:-
These are the key questions which have to be kept in mind before selecting and
applying any technique of risk management.
Risk management has the following objectives before and after a loss occurs.
Pre-loss objectives:
1- Prepare for potential losses in the most economical way
2- Reduce anxiety (if you have uncertainty and know about it, then you fix it,
Post-loss objectives:
1- Ensure survival of the firm (didn’t die)
2- Continue operations (able to keep going after loss, keep doors open)
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Notes By Nasir M. Iqbal, MBA-IRM, MBA Fin., PGD App..Eco, Cert. CII. E: nasiriq1974@yahool.com, T: 03214004203
5- Minimize the effects that a loss will have on other persons and on society
(stakeholders)
● Orientation
● Risk Analysis Questionnaires
● Exposure Checklists
● Insurance Policy Checklists
● Flowcharts
● Analysis of Financial Statements
● Other Internal Records
● Inspections
● Interviews
Orientation
The first requirement in risk identification is to gain as through a knowledge as
possible of the organisation and its operations. The risk manager needs a general
knowledge of the goals and functions of the organisation, the practices of the
particular industry, and the specific activities of the organisation itself. The history
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Notes By Nasir M. Iqbal, MBA-IRM, MBA Fin., PGD App..Eco, Cert. CII. E: nasiriq1974@yahool.com, T: 03214004203
of the organisation and the scope of its current operations are captured in a variety
of records, and these records represent a basic source of information required fro
risk analysis and exposure identification. A variety of tools are available to assist in
extracting information pertinent to the identification process.
Exposure Checklists
A second important aid in risk identification and simply a listing of common
exposures is called an exposure checklist. Obviously, a checklist cannot include all
possible exposures to which an organisation may be subject; the nature and
operations of different organisations vary too widely for that. However, it can be
used effectively in conjunction with other risk identification tools to reduce the
chance of overlooking a serious exposure.
Flowcharts
In certain instances, analysis of a flowchart of the firm's operations may alert the
risk manager to singular aspects of the firm's operations that give rise to special
risks. Probably the most positive benefit of using flow charts is that they force the
risk manager to become familiar with the technical aspects of the firm's operations,
thereby increasing the likelihood of recognizing special exposures.
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Notes By Nasir M. Iqbal, MBA-IRM, MBA Fin., PGD App..Eco, Cert. CII. E: nasiriq1974@yahool.com, T: 03214004203
Inspections
Just as one picture is worth a thousand words, one inspection tour may be worth a
thousand checklists. An examination of the firm's various operations sites and
discussions with managers and workers will often uncover risks that might
otherwise have gone undetected.
Interviews
Some information is not recoded in documents or records, and exists only in the
minds of executives and employees. Interviews with various parties within an
organisation are sometimes required to dig this information out and add it to the
general information that is used to identify exposures. The number and scope of
such interviews will depend on the situation. Depending on the circumstances,
these can include the CEO, operations manager, CFO, legal counsel, plant engineer,
purchasing agent, personnel manager, plant nurse, safety manager, employees and
supervisors. External parties such as the organisation's attorney and CPA may also
be able to provide useful information.
1- Estimate the frequency and severity of loss for each type of loss exposure
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Notes By Nasir M. Iqbal, MBA-IRM, MBA Fin., PGD App..Eco, Cert. CII. E: nasiriq1974@yahool.com, T: 03214004203
● Loss frequency refers to the probable number of losses that may occur
during some given time period
● Loss severity refers to the probable size of the losses that may occur
2- Once loss exposures are analyzed, they can be ranked according to their
relative importance
● The maximum possible loss is the worst loss that could happen to the firm
during its lifetime
● The probable maximum loss is the worst loss that is likely to happen
Risk control refers to techniques that reduce the frequency and severity of losses
1- Avoidance means a certain loss exposure is never acquired, or an existing loss exposure is
abandoned
● The chance of loss is reduced to zero
● It is not always possible, or practical, to avoid all losses
2- Loss prevention refers to measures that reduce the frequency of a particular
loss
● e.g., installing safety features on hazardous products
3- Loss reduction refers to measures that reduce the severity of a loss after is
occurs
Risk financing refers to techniques that provide for the funding of losses
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Notes By Nasir M. Iqbal, MBA-IRM, MBA Fin., PGD App..Eco, Cert. CII. E: nasiriq1974@yahool.com, T: 03214004203
1. Retention
2. Non-insurance Transfers
3. Commercial Insurance
Risk Financing Methods: Retention
⮚ Retention means that the firm retains part or all of the losses that can result
from a given loss
– The retention level is the dollar amount of losses that the firm will retain
⮚ A risk retention group is a group captive that can write any type of liability
coverage except employer liability, workers compensation, and personal line
– Federal regulation allows employers, trade groups, governmental units,
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Notes By Nasir M. Iqbal, MBA-IRM, MBA Fin., PGD App..Eco, Cert. CII. E: nasiriq1974@yahool.com, T: 03214004203
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Notes By Nasir M. Iqbal, MBA-IRM, MBA Fin., PGD App..Eco, Cert. CII. E: nasiriq1974@yahool.com, T: 03214004203
Insurance is appropriate for loss exposures that have a low probability of loss but
for which the severity of loss is high
Definition Of Insurance: is the equitable transfer of the risk of a loss, from one
entity to another in exchange for payment. It is a form of risk management
primarily used to hedge against the risk of a contingent, uncertain loss.
The transaction involves the insured assuming a guaranteed and known relatively
small loss in the form of payment to the insurer in exchange for the insurer's
promise to compensate (indemnify) the insured in the case of a financial
(personal) loss. The insured receives a contract, called the insurance policy, which
details the conditions and circumstances under which the insured will be
financially compensated.
Reactions covers all aspects of the insurance and reinsurance industry including
insurers, reinsurers, brokers. A lot of our focus is on how the industry transfers
risk and the financial risks and opportunities inherent in the process. The
following is a guide for people new to the industry – or people who have
managed to bluff their way through up to now.
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Notes By Nasir M. Iqbal, MBA-IRM, MBA Fin., PGD App..Eco, Cert. CII. E: nasiriq1974@yahool.com, T: 03214004203
In most instances the absolute level of exposure an insurance company has will
outweigh the capital it has on its balance sheet. As a consequence insurance
companies find it necessary to transfer their risk to third parties, whether they
are in the traditional reinsurance market or the capital markets through the
services of an intermediary (or broker) or directly with the reinsurer.
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Notes By Nasir M. Iqbal, MBA-IRM, MBA Fin., PGD App..Eco, Cert. CII. E: nasiriq1974@yahool.com, T: 03214004203
Principles Of Insurance
1- Insurability
2- Legal
Insurability
Large number of similar exposure units: Since insurance operates through pooling
resources, the majority of insurance policies are provided for individual members
of large classes, allowing insurers to benefit from the law of large numbers in which
predicted losses are similar to the actual losses. Exceptions include Lloyd's of
London, which is famous for insuring the life or health of actors, sports figures and
other famous individuals. However, all exposures will have particular differences,
which may lead to different premium rates.
Definite loss: The loss takes place at a known time, in a known place, and from a
known cause. The classic example is death of an insured person on a life insurance
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Notes By Nasir M. Iqbal, MBA-IRM, MBA Fin., PGD App..Eco, Cert. CII. E: nasiriq1974@yahool.com, T: 03214004203
policy Fire, automobile accidents and worker injuries may all easily meet this
criterion.
Accidental loss: The event that constitutes the trigger of a claim should be
fortuitous, or at least outside the control of the beneficiary of the insurance. The
loss should be pure, in the sense that it results from an event for which there is
only the opportunity for cost. Events that contain speculative elements, such as
ordinary business risks or even purchasing a lottery ticket, are generally not
considered insurable.
Large loss: The size of the loss must be meaningful from the perspective of the
insured. Insurance premiums need to cover both the expected cost of losses, plus
the cost of issuing and administering the policy, adjusting losses, and supplying the
capital needed to reasonably assure that the insurer will be able to pay claims. For
small losses these latter costs may be several times the size of the expected cost of
losses. There is hardly any point in paying such costs unless the protection offered
has real value to a buyer.
Calculable loss: There are two elements that must be at least estimable, if not
formally calculable: the probability of loss, and the attendant cost. Probability of
loss is generally an empirical exercise, while cost has more to do with the ability of
a reasonable person in possession of a copy of the insurance policy and a proof of
loss associated with a claim presented under that policy to make a reasonably
definite and objective evaluation of the amount of the loss recoverable as a result
of the claim.
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Notes By Nasir M. Iqbal, MBA-IRM, MBA Fin., PGD App..Eco, Cert. CII. E: nasiriq1974@yahool.com, T: 03214004203
portion of their capital base. Capital constrains insurers' ability to sell earthquake
insurance as well as wind insurance in hurricane zones. In the US, flood risk is
insured by the federal government. In commercial fire insurance it is possible to
find single properties whose total exposed value is well in excess of any individual
insurer's capital constraint. Such properties are generally shared among several
insurers, or are insured by a single insurer who syndicates the risk into the
reinsurance market.
Legal
When a company insures an individual entity, there are basic legal requirements.
Several commonly cited legal principles of insurance include;
Insurable interest – the insured typically must directly suffer from the loss.
Insurable interest must exist whether property insurance or insurance on a person
is involved. The concept requires that the insured have a "stake" in the loss or
damage to the life or property insured. What that "stake" is will be determined by
the kind of insurance involved and the nature of the property ownership or
relationship between the persons. The requirement of an insurable interest is what
distinguishes insurance from gambling.
Utmost good faith – the insured and the insurer are bound by a good faith bond of
honesty and fairness. Material facts must be disclosed.
“Deductible is the amount paid out of pocket by the policy holder / Insured and
over and above that amount paid by insurance company”
Causa proxima, or proximate cause – the cause of loss (the peril) must be covered
under the insuring agreement of the policy, and the dominant cause must not be
excluded
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Notes By Nasir M. Iqbal, MBA-IRM, MBA Fin., PGD App..Eco, Cert. CII. E: nasiriq1974@yahool.com, T: 03214004203
Mitigation - In case of any loss or casualty, the asset owner must attempt to keep
loss to a minimum, as if the asset was not insured.
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