MATH 1030-502-506

Salt Lake Community College

Melissa Kohler, Goldie Spira, Kati Heath
Voting Theory Project 9
2/15/2021
Part I: Research the Iowa Caucuses and explain how they work. Your response should be a one-
page (250-word) narrative. Be sure to include a brief history, how a caucus differs from a typical
primary election, and why the Iowa Caucuses play such an important role in American
presidential elections.

Iowa has been conducting a biennial caucus on and off since the 1800’s; however, it’s
first Democratic and Republican caucuses began in 1972 and 1976 respectively. In Iowa,
political parties are required to hold caucuses every two years to select delegates for party
committees.
Unlike traditional primary elections, where citizens go to the polls and cast their ballots,
Iowan caucuses are considered to be more similar to gatherings of community members or
neighbors within each precinct--and they’re typically held in public venues such as schools,
churches, or libraries. In addition to selecting delegates, caucus-goers will vote on their
presidential preference and begin writing party platforms. Both the Democratic and Republican
caucuses have rules that differ quite a bit from each other.
The Iowan caucus receives national attention at nearly every Presidential Election due to
the accuracy with which it predicts which candidate will go on to be the party nominee for
President (55% accuracy with Democrats and 43% with Republicans). This, however, is likely
because of how early the caucus is conducted. Critics have claimed that the caucus serves as a
self-fulfilling prophecy that throws favor onto any candidate that is chosen. Additionally, the
demographics of the caucus is statistically wealthy and white, due to the hours that the caucus is
held at. Colored, working-class citizens have less opportunity to add their opinion to the
conversation. It may, therefore, be considered less fair than a traditional primary election.
Regardless, the Iowan caucus’s impact on a national scale is incomparable and noteworthy.

Part II: Imagine you live in Mason City, Iowa and attend a Republican caucus for Precinct W1-
P2 at the Highland Golf Course. The meeting organizers ask the voters to select their preferences
for four candidates. The following preference schedule summarizes the results of the poll.

# Voters 15 11 35 39

1st B R C T

2nd C B R R

3rd R C B C

4th T T T B
B is Jeb Bush, C is Ted Cruz, R is Marco Rubio, and T is Donald Trump
 MATH 1030-502-506
Salt Lake Community College
Melissa Kohler, Goldie Spira, Kati Heath
Voting Theory Project 9
2/15/2021

Use this preference schedule to answer the following questions about various voting methods.
Vocabulary words in bold are defined in the Voting Theory section in Math in Society .

i. How many people voted? 100

ii. Who wins by Plurality Method? T (Donald Trump)

iii. Suppose we use Instant Runoff Voting. Remove the candidate with the least 1st Choice
votes and show the preference schedule.

# Voters 15 11 35 39

1st B B C T

2nd C C B C

3rd T T T B

iv. Remove the candidate with the least 1st Choice votes and show the preference schedule.

# Voters 15 11 35 39

1st C C C T

2nd T T T C

v. Who wins by Instant Runoff Voting? C (Ted Cruz)

vi. Calculate a Borda Count for each candidate.

B: 202 C: 285
R: 296 T: 217

vii: Who wins by Borda Count? R (Marco Rubio)

viii: How many points does each candidate get using Copeland's Method?
B: 1 C: 2.5
R: 2.5 T: 0
 MATH 1030-502-506
Salt Lake Community College
Melissa Kohler, Goldie Spira, Kati Heath
Voting Theory Project 9
2/15/2021
ix: Who wins by Copeland's Method? C and R tied

x: . Is there a Condorcet Candidate? N

xi: If YES, who is the Condorcet Candidate? If NO, put N/A N/A

Part III: Imagine that the members of your group are selected as the delegates from Precinct
W1-P2 and you must agree on one candidate to support at the Cerro Gordo County Convention.
Write a one-page (250-word) discussion explaining who won the election. The discussion should
include your interpretation of your calculations in Part II and which fairness criteria helped you
choose a winner.
There is no right answer (see Arrow's Impossibility Theorem). As a group it is your job to
make a decision and defend that decision in your discussion.

As delegates for Precinct W1-P2 we as a group came to the conclusion to support

candidate Ted Cruz for the Cero Gordo County Convention. In the calculations from part 2 we
determined that Donald Trump won the Plurality Method, Ted Cruz won the Instant Runoff
Voting, Marco Rubio won the Borda Count, and Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio tied the Copeland's
Method.

In order to determine a winner, we decided to look into the four different fairness criteria.
We also considered the Arrow’s Impossibility Theorem we know that not all fairness criteria can
be satisfied in all cases in a voting system. This is true for the results of the Cerro Gordo County
Convention. The fairness criteria that we felt best represented the majority of the community is
the Monotonicity Criteria. This criterion supports the Instant Runoff Voting, in which Ted Cruz
was the winner. The voters chart shows that if voters change their vote to increase the preference
of Ted Cruz it will not harm the chances of him winning the election.

If we had used the Majority Criterion, then Donald Trump would have won according to
that fairness criteria. Looking at all the votes it showed that Donald Trump was first in only one
group. All the other groups of votes had Donald Trump as the 4th choice. In considering all the
voters' choices and who they would prefer, then also considering the fairness method of
Monotonicity Criteria we made the educated decision to support Ted Cruz in the Cero Gordo
County Convention.