CHINA’S RISE

INRL20090
Autumn 2020, Week 9
LECTURE OUTLINE

Historical context of U.S.-China relations

Causes and consequences of China’s rise

Power transition theory

Is war with China inevitable?

KEY TERMS AND CONCEPTS

Power transition theory

Interdependence

Security dilemma
INTRODUCTION

The United States remains the most powerful country in the

world measured by economic and especially military capabilities

But will America’s edge endure?

China is the only country that could one day challenge American
primacy
China has the longest uninterrupted history of any country on
earth

Ten of China’s thirteen historical dynasties lasted longer than the

entire history of the United States

China was the world’s most technologically advanced country

until about 1500

China’s ‘reemergence’ is perhaps more accurate than ‘rise’

The U.S.-China relationship will be the defining geopolitical
contest of the 21st century

This competition will affect virtually every aspect of international

politics — trade, technology, alliance relations, international
institutions

Many potential flash points: Taiwan, South China Sea, North

Korea
HISTORICAL CONTEXT OF U.S.-
CHINA RELATIONS

In the United States, two schools of thought on China’s rise have

existed in recent decades:

Engagement — expand and deepen economic, political,

societal, and military contact with China

Containment — treat China as the United States did the

Soviet Union during the Cold War — i.e., as a strategic rival
and adversary
U.S.-China diplomatic relations were restored in 1971 (full
normalization in 1979)

The United States had severed diplomatic relations with China

following the Communist victory in the Chinese civil war in
1949

U.S.-China rapprochement in 1971-72 driven by geopolitical

reasons — both faced a common threat in the Soviet Union

In the United States, the 1989 Tiananmen protests stigmatized

China as a brutal, repressive regime

Still, few Americans saw China as an ideological or geopolitical

threat
CHINA’S RISE TO GREAT POWER
STATUS
Rapid economic growth has driven China’s emergence as a great
power

This is a familiar pattern in international politics

Close relationship between economic strength and geopolitical

weight

As a corollary, as a state’s power expands, its interests also

tend to expand
Deng Xiaoping introduced economic reforms in 1979

China henceforth embraced market economics and its economy

took off

Abolished agricultural communes and made China self-sufficient

in food

Sent thousands of Chinese students to Western countries

Initiated one of the most spectacular periods of economic

growth and development in world history
Today China is the United States’ most important bilateral
relationship

As China continues its rise, key unanswered questions remain:

What are China’s long-term strategic goals — in the Asia-

Pacific and globally?

Which elements of the status quo will China accept?

Which elements will it seek to reform?

What does history and theory tell us about such historical

junctures?
POWER TRANSITION THEORY

Rise of one power at the expense of another has nearly always

produced instability — and often led to military conflict

This has been called ‘Thucydides’ trap’ — after the Greek

historian who wrote the history of the Peloponnesian War

‘It was the rise of Athens and the fear that this instilled in
Sparta that made war inevitable’
In one recent study by Graham Allison, out of 14 power
transitions in history, 10 resulted in war

Either the dominant power or the rising challenger can initiate

war — but usually the weaker power is most likely to be the
aggressor

More equal distributions of power are more likely to lead to war;

more unequal distributions of power more likely to lead to peace
NEW COLD WAR?

Many government officials and commentators in both the United

States and China have suggested that a new ‘cold war’ is emerging

Several reasons to be skeptical that U.S.-China relations will mirror

U.S.-Soviet Cold War

Every Soviet leader until Gorbachev proclaimed worldwide

triumph of Communism as ultimate goal — China makes no such
universal claims

Soviet armies occupied Eastern Europe — China does not have an

empire
Soviet ideology insisted on universal applicability — China
does not challenge the domestic structure of other states on
ideological grounds

It is nationalism, not Communism, that could lead to

confrontation with the United States
IS WAR WITH CHINA INEVITABLE?

Can international relations theory help us answer this question?

In general, realists expect conflict and liberals expect peace

However, it is also possible to identify liberals who expect

conflict and realists who expect peace

Liberalism and realism each has two variants — one optimistic,

one pessimistic
LIBERAL OPTIMISTS

Economic interdependence — economic interdependence tends

to dampen conflict (but not make it impossible)

International institutions — China is a member of most of the

main international institutions

This signals that China is more of a status quo than a

revisionist power
REALIST PESSIMISTS

China’s power is rising inexorably — power transition dynamics

at play

China’s aims are expanding — China wants to drive the United

States out of the Asia Pacific

Security dilemma is intense — danger of misperception or

miscalculation leading to war
LIBERAL PESSIMISTS

United States: Crusading liberal democracy?

Rising nationalism in both countries

Interactive effects of suspicion and hostility

Vicious cycle of mutually reinforcing suspicions and fears

REALIST OPTIMISTS

The United States is much more powerful than China and is likely
to remain so for many decades

China’s aims are limited — a modus vivendi between the United

States and China is possible

The security dilemma is manageable due to nuclear weapons

War between two states is never ‘inevitable’

The distribution of power and interests make it virtually

inevitable that there will be conflicts of interest between the
United States and China

Both countries will have to accommodate the other’s legitimate

interests — but this may prove difficult to do in practice

Avoidance of war will depend on wise and prudent leadership in

both countries
CONCLUSION

The future of U.S.-China relations is decisive for the course of

21st-century international politics

Power transitions have historically been destabilizing — but they

have not always resulted in war

Many questions remain unclear: How China will define its

national interests; whether China will remain a status quo power;
how China will use its power and influence