The impact of COVID-19

on Poland

MIRUNA POPESCU

GROUP 131 | FABIZ-ENGLISH
Contents
1. Introduction.........................................................................................................................................2
2. Pre-outbreak analysis..........................................................................................................................2
3. Description of the problem..................................................................................................................7
4. Solutions proposed............................................................................................................................10
5. Conclusion.........................................................................................................................................12
Annexes.....................................................................................................................................................13
References.................................................................................................................................................13
 1. Introduction

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is an infectious disease that is caused by severe acute
respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). The first infection with this virus was
identified in Wuhan, China in December 2019. Ever since, it has grown in proportion and it has
spurred in an ongoing global pandemic.
As of 12 May 2020, this virus has infected more than 4,17 million people in over 187 countries
and territories and it has caused over 286,000 deaths. Out of the total number of cases, more than
1.45 million persons have managed to recover. The magnitude of the transmission of this virus
can be explained by the ease with which it is transmitted, between people, during close contact
usually via small droplets produced by coughing, sneezing and talking.
The majority of cases will only have mild symptoms, similar to any usual cold, but in a small
percentage, it can lead to serious symptoms such as acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS),
multi-organ failure, septic shock and blood clots.
According to the World Health Organization, there are currently no available vaccines or
antiviral treatment for COVID-19, which makes the problem even more difficult to try and
tackle. Due to this fact, one of the measures that has been implemented by most countries
worldwide to somehow slow the spread of the virus has been social distancing.
This solution undoubtedly helped save lives, but it also led to a huge strain on the economies of
all countries. According to two World Bank scenarios for growth outcomes in Europe and
Central Asia, the region’s developing economies are expected to contract in 2020 to -2.8 percent,
and in the pessimistic scenario to -4.4 percent.
This paper will be focusing is Poland, one of the Eastern-European countries who was seriously
affected by the virus. Thus, it needs to implement a series of measures to ensure that people
remain safe, while also jumpstarting the economy before even more damage has been produced.

2. Pre-outbreak analysis

For us to be able to better understand the impact that the COVID-19 pandemic will have on
Poland on an economic and social level it is important to first understand its situation prior to the
virus.
Therefore, Poland is one of the 10 countries that became members of the European Union in
2004. Its economy so far has been on the upswing in the last years. This can be seen if we look at
one of the most recent statistics regarding the Member States and how they contributed the most
to the EU GDP.
 Figure 1-Member States contributions to the EU GDP (%). Source:
https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/4187653/10321599/EU_annual_gdp_share_2019.jpg/

As we can see, Poland is one of the biggest contributors to the EU GDP, being the fifth overall
country in the European Union, with a contribution of 3.8% and only lagging behind the biggest
economies in the EU.
GDP is the next macroeconomic indicator analyzed in order to paint a clearer picture regarding
Poland’s situation prior to the outbreak. In the following chart, the GDP during the period 2010-
2018 will be presented in billion USD.
 Poland GDP (USD)
Poland GDP (USD)
700,000
600,000
585,664
500,000 528,832 500,361 524,234 545,389 526,216
479,321
400,000 477,577 472,028

300,000
200,000
100,000
0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Figure 2- Poland's GDP 2010-2018 (USD) Source: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD?

end=2018&fbclid=IwAR1_iqFVfIVabVvtbhmaCV-cz-VbTOYCQetqUA49AkbxlxLZ-
yYtgeQimwA&locations=PL&start=1990&view=chart

As we can see, in the last 3 years, the GDP of Poland has experienced great increases, the biggest
one being between 2017 and 2018 when it was of approximately 5.3%. This suggests that the
economy in Poland has been on the right track for the last years and when looking at another
indicator, GDP/capita at purchasing power parity has grown on average by 6% p.a. over the
last 20 years, the most impressive performance in Central Europe. Consequently, since 1990 the
country has increased its GDP seven-fold.
Moving further into our analysis, we will delve into the unemployment rate in Poland.

Poland Unemployment rate

Unemployment rate
12.00
10.00
9.64 9.63 10.09 10.24
8.00 8.99
6.00 7.50
6.16
4.00 4.88
2.00 3.67 3.27
0.00
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Figure 3- Unemployment Rate (2010-2019). Source: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SL.UEM.TOTL.ZS?

fbclid=IwAR1_iqFVfIVabVvtbhmaCV-cz-VbTOYCQetqUA49AkbxlxLZ-yYtgeQimwA&locations=PL

Looking at the table above, we can see that since 2013 the unemployment rate has been steadily
decreasing. What is more, according to Eurostat, since 2008, the unemployment levels recorded
in Poland have been constantly below the averages recorded in the EU.
Another important factor that helps analyze the pre-outbreak situation of Poland is the debt/GDP
ratio.
 Debt/GDP
60
50 53.5 54.5 54.1 56 54.3
50.8 51.3 50.6 48.8
40 46
30
20
10
0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Debt/GDP

Figure 4-Debt/GDP in Poland (2010-2019). Source: https://tradingeconomics.com/poland/government-debt-to-gdp

Generally, this represents the country’s ability to make future payments on its debt. Looking at
this, the trend has been to decrease it in the last few years and another important aspect that
reflects the performance of the Polish economy is the fact that this number has been constantly
below that of the EU. As a comparison, in 2019 the average for the EU was of 79.3%, while
Poland’s was 46%.
When it comes to budget deficit, this occurs when the government spends more money than
what it takes it. Like all of the other macroeconomic indicators encountered so far, the budget
deficit has been steadily decreasing over the last few years.

Government budget defi cit

0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
-0.2 2019
-1 -0.7
-2 -1.5
-3 -2.6 -2.4
-4 -3.7 -3.6
-4.2
-5
-4.9
-6
-7
-8 -7.4

Government budget deficit

Figure 5- Poland's Government budget deficit (2010-2019) Source: https://tradingeconomics.com/european-union/government-budget

The table above shows the government deficit as a percentage of the GDP. As we can see, it has
been falling until 2018 and in 2019 there was a very small increase. The government was
planning to have it reduced even more, but with the pandemic that will most likely not be the
case. In addition to this, the number is once again lower than the average recorded in the EU as,
for example in 2018 the average of the EU for this indicator was -0.7 while in Poland it was -0.2
which was the smallest value recorded in the 8 years studied.
 The inflation rate in Poland has reached an all-time low in 2016 when it was at -0.665% and it
has grown in the last 2 years. This trend has continued this year, thus in February 2020 it had
reached 4.66%, being the fourth country when it comes to inflation in the entire world. The only
countries that fared worse were Argentina (51.5%), Turkey (12.4%) and India (6.6%).

Infl ati on rate

5
4.24
4 3.56
3 2.58
2.08 2.23
2 1.81
0.99
1
0.05
0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
-1 -0.67
-0.87
-2

Government budget deficit

Figure 6- Inflation rate (2010-2019). Source: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/FP.CPI.TOTL.ZG?locations=PL

Concerning the interest rates, the reference rate according to the National Bank of Poland has
been decreasing in the period that we have studied. Therefore, at the end of 2012 it was at 4.25,
only to go down to 1.5 in 2015. The most recent shifts in regards to interest rates have been in
March 2020 when it reached 1, only to further decrease to 0.5 in April.
As it was presented, the state of the Polish economy prior to this COVID-19 outbreak was a good
one, being classified as a high-income economy by the World Bank. What is more, it is the
largest economy among the former Eastern Bloc members of the EU. It has been ranked as an
emerging economy by Russell and all of the predictions were positive. In addition to this, S&P
had granted it a A - long-term foreign currency debt rating, pointing to the country’s diversified
economy and strong macroeconomic fundamentals.
One final thing worth noting is that prior to the COVID-19 outbreak Poland was scheduled to
elect its president in 2020 and that the party in power was a rightwing party which had acquired a
well-deserved reputation for playing fast and loose with democratic norms, particularly in
relation to the judiciary and media.
In the end of 2019 this populist party narrowly won a second term in office, but its grip on power
was weakened by a small fraction after it lost its control over the Senate, the upper house, and
failed to increase its majority in the more powerful lower chamber. This loss in control over the
Senate could grant the opposition the capacity to block or delay the legislation proposed by the
leading party, Law and Justice. Passing legislation has been a problem in the last years, as this
Party had the tendency to pass laws quickly with hastily called late-night sittings of the lower
house, followed by quick approval from the upper house. Their strategy involved combining a
big increase in social spending in certain areas, made against the backdrop of a booming
economy, which has a nationalist and traditionalist rhetoric. This is leading to an authoritarian
direction that has caused divisions in the Polish society and has ignited the disapproval of the
European Commission.

3. Description of the problem

One of the biggest, if not the biggest, threats to the favorable state in which the Polish economy
has been in the last few years is represented by the novel coronavirus pandemic. This virus has
created enormous economic uncertainty and fears that the damages caused will be too extensive
and would take years to repair.
Analyzing the manner in which COVID-19 has affected Poland, it is good to create a timeline of
the evolution of the virus and of the measures the authorities have taken thus far to limit the
spread and reduce its negative impact.
Poland was not among the first countries to record cases of the virus. Therefore, the Polish
authorities did not participate in the 28th February 2020 European Union tender procedure for
purchasing COVID-19 pandemic related medical equipment, in which 20 other member states
participated.
The first case of a confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection was that of a man hospitalized in Zielona
Góra, with confirmation announced officially on 4 March 2020. The local transmission phase of
the virus was declared to the WHO on the 10th of March, while the first death was that of a 56-
year-old woman on 12 March. Consequently, Poland applied on 6 March for the 17 March tender
for the purchase of medical equipment after which the European Commission announced that all
requests were satisfied by orders.
Concerning the lockdown control measures, they started on 10–12 March, closing schools and
university classes and cancelling mass events, and were strengthened on 25 March, limiting non-
family gatherings to two people and religious gatherings to six and forbidding non-essential
travel. On 20th March, the Ministry of Health tried to prevent medical personnel from
commenting on the pandemic, but the Polish Ombudsman defended them by calling upon the
freedom of speech and the right of the public to information.
The lockdown restrictions were tightened starting on 31 March–1 April by a government
regulation, requiring individuals walking in streets to be separated by two meters, closing parks,
boulevards, beaches, hairdressers and beauty salons, and forbidding unaccompanied minors from
exiting their homes.
In addition to this, Poland was the first country to introduce sanitary border checks and according
to the government, this was one of the measures that prevented an even wider spread of the virus.
Moreover, the National Bank of Poland carried out a two-week quarantine procedure and heating
at 150 °C (302 °F) for all bank notes, prior to returning the notes for circulation.
By April, the direction of the country started to shift and a follow up regulation on 10 April
loosened the restrictions on public gatherings starting from 20 April, allowing religious
gatherings and funerals to be held for up to a maximum of 50 people, opening of forests and
parks, free movement for recreational purposes while maintaining at least a two-meter distance
and covering mouth and nose, while some stores will be opened, but with certain restrictions.
This is only the first step of the Polish government’s 4 stage plan to loosen the measures. The
other stages are further away and they entail:
 the opening of DIY stores at weekends, the opening of hotels and other accommodation,
opening of libraries, museums, and art galleries;
 the opening of stationary gastronomy (with certain restrictions included), stores in
shopping malls, hairdressing and beauty salons, the organization of sporting events with
the participation of up to 50 people in open space (without attendance), of childcare in
crèches, kindergartens, school primary school grades 1-3;
 the opening of gyms, solariums, massage salons, theaters and cinemas
One key aspect concerning the current situation of the coronavirus and the loosening of these
restrictions is that part of the Polish people has felt like these measures were taken way too soon
and that the ruling party was only thinking about the scheduled May 10 elections, with which
they intended to proceed.
This social problem only escalated, as the Law and Justice political party continued to push for
the organization of the elections in spite of the problems brought on by COVID-19 and which
were costing people their lives and affecting the economy. The opposition called for the elections
to be held on May 2021, while the ruling party instead wished to change the electoral rules and
to organize elections by only allowing postal voting. However, voting only by post is considered
unconstitutional by the Supreme Court as well as the change of election rules in a shorter period
of time than 6 months before voting.
However, as it was previously stated, the ruling party is veering towards authoritarianism and so
in the morning of April 23, every Polish mayor and city council president received an
anonymous, unsigned email from the Polish post stating that they were required to deliver the
private data of 30 million Polish citizens in a format unprotected by passwords. Many of them
criticized this, while an uproar among citizens was started. Some claimed they would go on and
file a lawsuit to the prosecutor's office about the possibility of crimes being committed by the
government-run post and by the politicians responsible for the regulation.
The issues in the political sphere did not stop here during the coronavirus pandemic though,
because the electoral cards were leaked at the end of April 2020 and 9 former Polish Presidents
and Prime Ministers called for a boycott on the elections. Finally, it was decided that the
elections day will be postponed to a still to be decided future date.
To make matters worse, the government wants to take advantage of the coronavirus pandemic,
when the lockdown measures prevent protests and pass a law that had been previously heavily
protested against. What this law would entail is the ban on abortions, making the already very
restrictive abortion policy even stricter; potentially result in a ban on sexual education and
criminal charges against those that encourage people under 18 to have sex and anti-gay
provisions.
Now that we have outlined the current problems during the coronavirus pandemic in Poland in
social and political terms, it is crucial to also discuss about the economy and its state. According
to statements made by members of the ruling party, the restrictions imposed on the economy are
costing Poland some 10 billion zlotys (€2.21 billion) every day or two.
Moreover, an economic forecast by the European Commission published on May 6, the Polish
economy will fall by 4.25 percent in 2020 as unemployment rises and consumer confidence
weakens as the country fights against the coronavirus pandemic and a drop in demand for
exports. Yet, this is not such a large dip, as the same forecast predicts even more somber
numbers for other countries such as Germany, leaving Poland one of EU’s most mildly affected
economy.
Venturing into other indicators, predictions estimate unemployment to rise to 7.5%, from the
previous 3.5% recorded in 2019 and the fiscal deficit will soar to 9% of the GDP because of the
government’s pumping of money into the economy and a decline in the revenues collected from
taxes.
To try and mitigate some of these effects, the Polish government has already taken a series of
measures. Among them we can find:
 government-paid social insurance contributions for three months, for companies
employing up to nine people, self-employed individuals and freelancers
 one-off benefits of circa 2000 PLN gross (80% of monthly minimal wage) for self-
employed and freelancers (about 2.2 million people)
 working permits for non-citizens are to be prolonged to 30 days after the official revoking
of the state of epidemic if they expire within the during the state of epidemic
 public co-financing of employees' salaries up to 40% of average monthly wage, if
working time has been reduced up to 20%, but no less than working time for half-time
position
 taxpayers affected by pandemic are entitled to deduct their losses incurred in year 2020
from income obtained in 2019 providing that revenue has been diminished by more than
50%
 non-repayable loans up to 5000 PLN for companies employing up to 9 people, but there
cannot be any lay-offs within next 6 months
 elongated deadlines of public projects and cancellation of deadlines penalties in public
tenders
Besides this, there has also been a steep reducing of the reference rate by the National Bank of
Poland, as it went to 1% in March, only to be cut again in April to 0.5%, while the banks have
granted over 400,000 mortgage holders deferment of interest charges on mortgages and loans
since the end of March, as part of the stimulus package agreed with the government.
There is a consensus among the economists that the Polish economy will contract by between 0.5
and 4.5 percent only in the second quarter of 2020, this negative trend will only continue in the
future if there will be a lack of suitable monetary policy.

4. Solutions proposed

The previous chapter has dealt with explaining the current problems that the pandemic has
brought upon Poland. As we could see, there are extensive economic issues that will need to be
remedied, but the things that cannot be ignored in the future are the glaringly obvious problems
faced in the social and political sphere of the country.
Firstly, we will begin with proposing some solutions that could help save the economy in the
short-term and heal the damage in the long-run. In order to be able to deliver better solutions, we
have to understand the main sectors of the Polish economy which are:
 Agriculture- accounts for 3.8% of the country’s GDP and is responsible for 12.7% of the
labor force. It is mostly private, the majority of farmers owning less that 5 hectares of
farmland. Most of the produce, sugar or poultry that comes out of these farms is
consumed locally by the Polish people.
 Energy- Poland is the world’s 9th largest producer of hard coal; also most of it being
consumed locally
 Manufacturing- automotive production accounts for 4% of the country’s GDP and
annual exports from the automotive sector are valued at over €15.7 billion, translating to
about 16% of the country’s total exports
 Tourism- the world’s 16th most popular tourist destination in 2016 after an estimated
17.5 million tourists
In regards to agriculture, we believe it would be crucial for Poland to be able to keep it afloat as
it is the main source of good needed by the people. A good idea would be to implement measures
that would help connect the local farmers with the supermarkets. This would help because the
local markets might be closed or people might be less willing to buy from local sources that are
not viewed as reliable and safe as supermarkets.
In addition to this, a measure that I have read about and which worked well in Italy would be for
the government to allocate funds in order to buy from farmers the produce that has not sold and
which could be perishable and to distribute it to the most vulnerable families, who have suffered
as consequences of the virus.
Because of the fact that short-term workers, seasonable workers coming from other countries
might not be as available for the agriculture market, it might help if the government helped
develop a mechanism that would connect people in search of work, perhaps those that have been
affected by unemployment or cuts in their working hours to supplement their income. I also think
that the government accelerating the payment of subsidies to the local farmers would help them
stay in business and continue to produce.
When it comes to the energy industry, one of the most important things that have to be taken into
consideration is that as a result of the outbreak, one of the hardest hit categories are the miners in
the Silesia region. Out of the 16 900 confirmed cases, over 1500 are miners from Silesia. Thus,
the most important measure that the government could take would be a protocol of mass-testing
in the mines, which have become hotspots for the spread of the novel coronavirus. Furthermore,
due to the shift towards renewable energy and many companies shifting away from coal, the
government could take advantage of this and transform the Polish energy industry. This, in the
long-run would be extremely productive and would mean great economic gains as the coal
industry has suffered from big declines lately.
It is no surprise that tourism has found itself at a standstill following the pandemic. Yet, it is a
crucial industry for Poland so the government should help it overcome this challenge. Therefore,
it would be good to have grants and deferrals from the payment of utilities being given to
businesses operating in the hospitality and leisure sector which have been affected by the virus.
There could also be an incentive for local businesses such as restaurants, coffee shops or hotels
to partner among each other, thus pool their resources together and work towards surviving and
getting back on track.
The crisis that the novel coronavirus will bring upon the economy is undeniable, but in a way, it
is different from the crisis that we experienced in 2008 because for now the banks have the
liquidity and the capital needed in order to be used further on. One of the monetary policies that
can be identified clearly and that I believe should continue to be applied in Poland is for the
SMEs to receive grants and credit support that would help them keep operating. In terms of fiscal
policy, the National Bank of Poland could buy private and public bonds and commercial paper to
avoid the collapse of the economy in the short-run.
After a large, disastrous impact has been averted, Poland should focus on the long-run to reduce
the impact that unemployment and uncertainty in terms of investment and consumption would
bring. Here, if the government continue to pump more and more money in the economy, there
could be the risk of reaching a way too high level of inflation. One way of avoiding this would
be to increase the public debt, but also for the National Bank of Poland to work closely together
with the other national banks in order to maintain the exchange rates relatively stable.
One other measure that could help cushion the impact of COVID-19 and which I know Austria
and other countries applied during the 2008 recession is the idea of short-time work. This would
allow temporary reduction in working hours up to 90% while maintaining the employment
relationship and granting almost full public wage compensation.
Yet, all of these measures would be pointless if Poland does not invest first of all in the health
system and allocate money to protect the vulnerable persons. A collapse in the health department
could turn out to have catastrophic consequences on Poland.
Additionally, in the current complicated political situation of Poland, the government needs, in
my opinion, to start thinking more about the people than about their own agendas. They should
think about those employed in the public sector and allow them the chance to work from home,
especially if it can be done without affecting the quality of their work. Another example of their
lack of genuine concern about the people’s wellbeing is the lack of adequate measures taken for
the pupils and students who have to take their final exams during the month of June. All of this
needs to be reconsidered, and turned into a priority instead of attempting to pass laws that the
general public would disapprove of.

5. Conclusion

The Polish economy has experienced a positive trajectory in the last years, process which was
abruptly halted because of the outbreak. The virus has mostly affected the labor force due to the
increase in unemployment and the SMEs. A series of measures need to be implemented by the
government to support the economy, both in the short-run and in the long run and to help the key
industries in the country survive.
However, this needs to be backed up by heavy spending in the health system which needs to
operate at full-force to be able to mitigate the impact of the virus. The government, who is
currently facing very low approval rates from the people needs to also change its attitude and to
stop trying to follow their rightwing ideas, at least for now and instead focus on doing all it can
to mitigate the risks brought on by COVID-19.
Poland has, as Fitch stated, a diversified yet relatively closed economy, moderate tourism sector,
net energy importer status, flexible exchange rate, a current account close to balance and some
degree of fiscal space to accommodate expansionary fiscal measures. Therefore, it should be able
to come out without extremely serious damage from the COVID-19. Yet, that will only be
possible if the government makes the right choices and only time will be able to say that. Judging
from its attitude thus far, many Polish people have their doubts regarding this.
 Annexes

Figure 1-Member States contributions to the EU GDP (%). Source:

https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/4187653/10321599/EU_annual_gdp_share_2019.jpg/.........3
Figure 2- Poland's GDP 2010-2018 (USD) Source:
https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD?
end=2018&fbclid=IwAR1_iqFVfIVabVvtbhmaCV-cz-VbTOYCQetqUA49AkbxlxLZ-
yYtgeQimwA&locations=PL&start=1990&view=chart.................................................................................4
Figure 3- Unemployment Rate (2010-2019). Source:
https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SL.UEM.TOTL.ZS?fbclid=IwAR1_iqFVfIVabVvtbhmaCV-cz-
VbTOYCQetqUA49AkbxlxLZ-yYtgeQimwA&locations=PL.............................................................................4
Figure 4-Debt/GDP in Poland (2010-2019). Source: https://tradingeconomics.com/poland/government-
debt-to-gdp.................................................................................................................................................5
Figure 5- Poland's Government budget deficit (2010-2019) Source:
https://tradingeconomics.com/european-union/government-budget.......................................................5
Figure 6- Inflation rate (2010-2019). Source: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/FP.CPI.TOTL.ZG?
locations=PL................................................................................................................................................6

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