Strategy after Covid

Session for ABG Customers

20 April 2020 | Shiv - ABG
This is Prakash Nedungadi’s idea

He runs the Bosstomer

program for ABG
 Structure
• Some thought starters
• The Facts
• The Opinions
• Pivot or Perish
• Company Strategies/plans + Individual
• Summary
 Statutory warning

This is my personal view

 slow motion economy,
We will be in a
despite debates on V shaped, U shaped recovery.
Have Patience !
Doing Nothing is not a strategy.
Good strategy responds to
change and
stretches capabilities/resources that give
you an advantage.
3 word strategy

‘Pivot or Perish’
FACTS on 20 Infected Deaths GDP $ Trillion Stimulus Health spend Unemployment %
April FY20 $ Bln % GDP
World 2.4 Million 166,000 90

1. USA 7,47,000 42,000 22.3 2300 17.1% 18 % April 20

2.China 82.735 4632 15.3 368 5.15% 5.4% March

3.Japan 10,807 238 5.4 1006 10.94% 2.5 % Feb
4.Germany 1,44,000 4547 4 187 11.25% 7 % April

5.India 16,116 519 3.2 24 3.53% 24 % April

6.France 113,700 19,718 2.8 132 11.31% 8.1 % Feb

7.UK 1,20,000 16,060 2.7 82 9.63% 10 % April

8.Italy 1,80,000 23,660 2 30 8.8% 12.7 % April

9.Brazil 37,000 2372 1.9 30 9.47% 12.5 % Feb

10.Canada 33,997 1511 1.8 151 10.57% 7.8 % April
The Facts
• China economy declined by 6.8 % last quarter, i.e. China lost 250 billion in one
quarter, 150 countries have annual GDP of less than 250 billion per annum !!
• Average lockdown across the world is 45 days, that’s $ 12 Trillion of activity impacted
– One China gone!

• Only 33 % of all flights now flying

• Oil price at $ 28 per barrel, lowest in 20 years

• All sporting events closed, Olympics postponed

• All colleges closed, online teaching is on.
The IMF View
Geography 2020 GDP growth % 2021 GDP growth %
World (3) 5.8
USA (5.9) 4.7
Euro Area (7.5) 4.7
Brazil (5.3) 2.9
Russia (5.5) 3.5
India 1.9 7.4
China 1.2 9.2
South Africa (5.8) 4.0

All countries except India and China will not be at 2019 levels even in 2021
Covid is main theme, however we see sub themes

1. China conspiracy theories 5. Stronger Governments

2. Nationalism, borders
closed
3. Oil price and implications
4. Vaccine development
6. Role of central banks
7. Future of global supply
chains
8. US Election 2020
9. Role of Media
When to Open debate

• The Spanish flu had three waves exactly 100 years ago

•Lives vs Livelihood argument

• Testing ,Tracking and cordoning off are the variables

Challenge is SMEs
Account for 90 % of all
private enterprises globally

Employ 50 % of global
workforce

Access to finance is their big

challenge
Pivot or Perish – 10 Thoughts
1. Please put all 3
and 5 year plans in the
freezer right now. Most of them are capital
allocation plans anyways. Pivot to

NOW
2. As a CEO , you
cannot do everything
on your own, you have to be clear what your
team members can do and then trust them to do it.
Pivot to

Delegation
3. History has shown that the Industry you
operate doesn’t matter, as much as
being good at what you do in that industry. Pivot to
being the best
4. Will your industry become more
consolidated? Will it get more
integrated?
5. Every industry will change, you will win if you
take a position now, waiting to see what
others are doing is a lose lose game. Pivot to a

view
What happened after 9/11?
The whole ‘security’ issue changed
Some examples of dramatic change
• New York has allowed digital marriages this week !! The state will send your marriage
certificate by mail after a video ceremony.

• Insurance companies are offering dramatically altered terms to get new policy holders.

• Emcees are offering digital motivation sessions for companies.

• Virtual concerts, beer festivals

• Efficient meetings online

• College admissions deferred

• Haircut and beauty treatment learnt online

Some examples of possible dramatic change
• Millennials buying cars? Challenge the old paradigm

• Travel substituted by on line meetings?

• New certification from online courses, certificates from star on line coaches/teachers?

• Eating in as opposed to eating out?

• The rise of the counselling , meditation industries?

• Digital model will be a default model, most CEOs have failed here?

• Masks become part of dress code?

• Surge in digital insurance?

• Digital fraud and hence digital security.

• Robots
6. Things that will always count
• Your reputation
• A valuable customer base
• The ecosystem network
• Capable people

You lose one and you will perish

7. 5 Metrics to chase
What to chase, what to measure, what to celebrate, how to celebrate?

1. Cash
2. Employee engagement
3. Customer continuity
4. Cut fixed costs
5. % business done digitally
8. Centralization vs Decentralization

There is a tendency to overmanage and

underlead. Pivot to
decentralized execution
9. Collaborate and build partnerships

Pivot to being

a good partner
10. As Individuals/Employees

• Psychological impact is significant

• There is no guarantee or entitlement
• Reskill fast – get online for training
• Re- Commit to the company for the next 12-18 months.
• Save as much as you can and provide for your family
• Pivot and

rethink your capabilities

Summary