Global Scenario &

Pakistan’s National
Security Strategy
Sardar Masood Khan (President AJ&K)

Foreign Policy
Formulation &
Implementation
Najmuddin A. Shaikh

Inland Water
Transportation
in Pakistan
Brigadier Muhammad Asim Iqbal TI(M)

Education System
of Pakistan
Major General Ghulam Qamar HI(M)

UN Peacemaking
in Kashmir
Maria Saifuddin Effendi

Pakistan’s
Foreign Policy
Dr. Huma Baqai

Pakistan Army Green Book-2017
A Research Journal of Pakistan Army, recognised by the
Higher Education Commission (HEC) of Pakistan
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The contents of this book are writers’ personal views.
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the Green Book do not imply the official policy of the
institution, editors or the publisher.
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PAKISTAN ARMY
Note from the Patron-in-Chief
GENERAL QAMAR JAVED BAJWA, NI(M)
Chief of Army Staff
After being confronted with multifaceted challenges to its security over the past two decades,
Pakistan, with its battle hardened army, has finally emerged as a resilient, spirited and indomitable Nation.
A new era of increased relevance at regional and global level and rapid infrastructure development has set
in, eliciting our enormous geopolitical potential into attainable ideals. This opportunity, however, brings
with it enormous security challenges as well. This calls for utilizing all our capabilities in cognitive and
physical domains persistently to enhance our capacity in staying abreast with the fast changing global and
regional environment. Pakistan Army Green Book is a manifestation of the same aim and it gives me great
satisfaction to see this scholarly compendium successfully achieving milestones in quest for agitating
readers’ minds.
Pakistan Army Green Book 2017, with its high standards of intellectual writing and research
articles encompassed in an attractive outlook, continues to raise the bar of professionalism in pursuit
of excellence. Owing to its quality, this publication has attained a coveted status among contemporary
research journals.
My special compliments to the authors and advisory / editorial boards for their indefatigable
efforts in producing an excellent publication. I sincerely hope that this will further encourage eminent
scholars and officers of Pakistan Army to contribute freely, expressing their candid views on multifaceted
issues confronting us today, at global, regional and national level.
Green Book 2017 1
 PAKISTAN ARMY PAKISTAN ARMY

TABLE OF CONTENTS TABLE OF CONTENTS

Editor’s Note
PATRON-IN-CHIEF Pakistan Army Green Book exemplifies
our perpetual endeavour to produce a
General Qamar Javed Bajwa, NI(M) chef-d’oeuvre of high-quality research. Its
Chief of Army Staff 2017 issue showcases constructive discourse
on a multitude of topics by renowned schol-
ars, intellectuals & literati representing
EDITORIAL BOARD distinct but authentic voices in the world of
letters. I, along with my team, feel indebted
Lieutenant General Hidayat Ur Rehman, HI (M) for their fervent and unequivocal response.
Major General Syed Hasnat Amir Gillani, HI (M)
Brigadier Sajjad Sikandar Ranjha

ADVISORY BOARD
116
USA’s Strategy of Rebalancing
Implications for Asia Pacific Region
Lieutenant General Naeem Khalid Lodhi, Hl(M) (Retired)
Inland Water Transportation in Brigadier Sajjad Sikandar Ranjha
Pakistan
54 130
Brigadier Dr. Naeem Haider SI(M)
Brigadier Muhammad Asim Iqbal TI (M)
Pakistan’s Foreign Policy
Dr. Zafar Iqbal Cheema In Changing Regional and Global Dynamics

70
President and Executive Director of
Strategic Vision Institute, Islamabad, Pakistan Biological Weapons’ Convention: Dr. Huma Baqai
Emerging Indo-US Relations
142
Prevention & Response to Infectious Diseases
and Hostile Use of Biological Agents

4
Dr. Pervaiz Iqbal Cheema An Assessment
Dean FCS, National Defence University, Global Scenario and Pakistan’s Brigadier Dr. Naeem Haider SI (M)

80
Colonel Muhammad Kamran Saleem
Islamabad, Pakistan National Security Strategy

150
Security and Counter Terrorism
Mind Control-Inaudible Effective
Dr. Zulfqar Khan
Sardar Masood Khan (President AJK)
Challenges–Pak, Iran, Middle East Threat to National Security
Head Of Department, Strategic Studies,
Lieutenant General Naeem Khalid Lodhi HI (M) (Retired)
National Defence University, Islamabad, Pakistan

84
Humeira Khaqan Chaudhary &
Evolving Paradigm of Intl Relations; A Lieutenant Colonel Khaqan Sarwar
Dr. Rizwana Karim Abbasi Liberalist Perspective on One Belt One Road
National Defence University, Islamabad, Pakistan
Brigadier Dr Waseem Ishaque
Dr . Zafar Khan
National Defence University, Islamabad, Pakistan

Dr. Iftikhar Zaidi

93 Looking After Our Veterans
Brigadier Ahmed Nawaz

13
Cranfield University, UK
Mapping UN Peacemaking in Kashmir
Prof Caroline Kennedy Pipe under Conflict Analysis Framework
University of Hull, UK Securing the CPEC–Pakistan Living

160
Maria Saifuddin Effendi

28 Deradicalisation, Rehabilitation and upto the Task

Dr. Peter Caddick Adams
Cranfield University, UK Reintegration of Extremists: Global Major General Abid Rafique HI (M)

and National Imperatives

173
Climate Change and its Impact on
EDITORS Brigadier Dr Khurshid Khan (Retired) & Asma Sana Bilal
Pakistan

42
Colonel Ghazi Kamal Kiani
Lieutenant Colonel Muhammad Noman Munir Foreign Policy-Definition Formulation Major Saif Ul Halim
and Implementation-Theory and

106
Pakistani Media-An Element of
187
Major Umar Farooq Farid
Education System of Pakistan
Practice in Pakistan Issues in Policies and Practice National Power
Najmuddin A. Shaikh Major General Ghulam Qamar HI(M) Major Muhammad Iqbal

2 Green Book 2017 Green Book 2017 3

 PAKISTAN ARMY PAKISTAN ARMY

Global scenario
knowledge economy through quality education is
proving transformative.
Pakistan is being upgraded from a “frontier
market” to “emerging market” by ‘Morgan
solvency. Beneath these overarching trends, the
Middle East is aflame and is being consumed by
civil, asymmetric and proxy warfare. Religious
and sectarian wars have become a familiar

and Pakistan’s
Stanley Capital International’ MSCI. The Karachi
Stock Exchange has the best performing index
in Asia in 2016.
Foreign interest in Pakistan’s economy
is rising. The middle class, young workforce and
phenomenon; and religious idiom dominates
political discourse even in the most liberal states,
with Islam at the receiving end. Fight for resources
is becoming nasty. Chronic conflicts in vast parts
of Africa have hamstrung the continent, though its

National Security
consumer market are expanding. These are all
good signs.
Pakistan has done well in the realm of
security too. Its credible strategic deterrence
and its conventional redoubt, despite obvious
economies are showing signs of strength.
On the brighter side, digital technologies
are reshaping the world irreversibly. Global
citizens often have created new neighbourhoods.
World has become more aware of humanitarian

Strategy
asymmetries, vis-a-vis India has made Pakistan
Honourable President Azad Jammu &
Kashmir, Sardar Masood Khan is an secure. India would not think of mounting
established diplomat and has served on an attack against Pakistan. The backbone of
several important assignments during the terrorists in the north has been broken; and
his esteemed career paramilitary operations in Karachi have restored
confidence amongst businesses and spurred
economic activity with the manufacturing sector
Abstract: Given CPEC and new SCO alliances, Pakistan is all set to play its role in the policies, economics picking pace. Violence has been drastically pushed
and commerce of this century having all the right constituents needed for a major economic player at down. Overall, there is stability in the country.
regional and global levels. The article focusses on equipping Pakistan’s populace, nationally and regionally Vulnerabilities and risks remain that
with a view to tackle arising challenges. It highlights that Pakistan is doing well in economic realm which require vigilance and preparedness. India has
is proved by its economic indicators. This places higher premium on knowledge economy. The paper also opened four fronts against Pakistan: one, twin
highlights that Pakistan has performed well in security scenario too. It however, argues that in addition to wars in Jammu and Kashmir, one against the
the influence of digital technology, political economy, in line with geography is also altering the productivity people in the Occupied Kashmir, and the second
landscape. Under these circumstances, a fresh stock of security scenario is therefore necessary. The writer against civilians in Azad Kashmir, across the Line
recommends that reinforcing ideology, strengthening national unity, promoting optimistic mindset along of Control; two, fourth generation warfare against
with democratic values and defence capability are pathways to Pakistan’s prosperous future. the state of Pakistan including through proxy
Key Words: Leadership, Diaspora, Effective communication, political economy, economic geography, wars and abetment and sponsorship of terrorism
digital technology, knowledge economy, two nation theory in Pakistan; three, economic warfare against
issues. Opportunities for economic growth in the
developing countries have multiplied, who now
campaign against protectionism being practiced
by the developed world. Economic geography is
being leveraged on a massive scale by China’s
One Belt One Road.
What are Pakistan’s levers for carving its
own destiny and safeguarding its own security?
Some ingredients for its national security strategy
are identified below:
Ideology
Pakistan was created for a reason and rationale. It
has a raison d’etre. For ensuring national security
of Pakistan, we should preserve and maintain
the pristine essence of Pakistan’s ideology. There
are revisionists from within Pakistan, who are
questioning the two-nation theory and campaigning
against the Objectives Resolution and the

P
akistan is stronger today and is poised
to seize immense opportunities it has
within and beyond the region and de-
fend itself against threats to its security
in the neigbourhood while addressing
transnational security risks.
The 21st century will be Pakistan’s century as of
other emerging nations. What is more, Pakistan
will be a leader. For that Pakistan must prepare
itself for tomorrow to get the most out of new
openings.
Pakistan is an active participant in the
policies, economics and commerce of this century
and has the potential to become a major economic
player at the regional and global level. Its growing
economic prowess will lay the foundation for
its rise. The historic China-Pakistan Economic
Corridor (CPEC) will continue to act as a catalyst
for Pakistan’s robust economic growth. According
to an estimate, by 2020, nearly 4 per cent of world
trade will pass through this corridor. And Pakistan’s
full membership of the Shanghai Cooperation
Organisation (SCO) opens new conduits for
Pakistan’s trade and investment.
Today Pakistan is in a better position to
handle macro-economic risks. We see Pakistan
moving towards higher growth through macro-
economic discipline. These strengths will continue
to build as new jobs are created and new businesses
are launched.
The rapid development of our communications,
energy and industrial infrastructure, as well
as improved tax collection, is igniting a new
entrepreneurial spirit in Pakistan.
There will be a rebound in services’ sector and
agriculture. In this context, growing emphasis on
Pakistan that includes open opposition to CPEC;
and, four, a diplomatic campaign to demonise
and isolate Pakistan internationally. Moreover the
continuing instability in Afghanistan keeps
Pakistan’s borders and hinterland exposed to
sponsored asymmetric warfare, espionage and
transnational crime.
Even as Pakistan grapples with these
traditional security risks, new threats such as cyber
crimes, adverse impact of climate change, and
possible outbreak of disease require new methods
and mechanisms to counter them.
Global scenario
The world order is in flux. While the United States
is the global leader, China has emerged as a major
economic and political protagonist on the world
stage. Russia has re-emerged as a formidable
counterforce. Strategic competition has intensified
in the Caucasus, Syria and South China Sea, even
as major developed nations strive for economic
supremacy of the Quran and Sunnah in our policy
and constitution. They pose a threat to national
security. The voices of these dissenters need not
be muffled undemocratically, but a deliberate
and systematic effort should be made to assert
ownership of the ideology by state institutions
and civil society. The ideology of Pakistan is alive
in the hearts and minds of the people, but there is
a determined push by India and some freewheeling
intellectuals in Pakistan to undermine it. Ideology
would, however, not be safeguarded by lip service
or cosmetic measures. People have to live it and it
has to be woven into the fabric of society. If there is
no ideology, there is no compass; and if there is no
compass, the state would become rudderless.
National unity
National unity is never given in for a large state and
even for micro states. It is a conscious choice that
is made by citizens and is nurtured by constant
endeavours. Once there is a valid social contract

4 Green Book 2017 Green Book 2017 5

 PAKISTAN ARMY
within a state, patriotism is designed and crafted.
It is not left to mere whims or sentimentality.
Educational institutions, as well as all state
institutions, promote and forge unity. But most
important are citizens and all the federation’s
constituents, who should genuinely believe in the
state and consider themselves its stakeholders
and beneficiaries. Ideally, there should be no
marginalised people in the state, but segments
that are excluded or feel they are excluded
should be brought into the national mainstream.
At the moment, national unity is demonstrated
sporadically during natural disasters and cricket
matches. It should become a palpable and abiding
feature.
The mindset
The mindset of failure has to be changed to one of
success. The current mindset of either megalomania
or, alternately, fragility is self-debilitating and
confusing. A ‘can do’ mindset will transform
individual lives and the nation as a whole. Again
such a mindset of nations is not a voluntary growth,
but one that is devised and publicised by leaders.
This mindset will wean people off dependency
and encourage them to help themselves and help
others. It would unleash their learning potential to
explore new frontiers in science and technology,
commerce, and markets. It will turn them into
entrepreneurs. Pakistan needs to change its
mindset of doomsday scenarios and failure to
one of determined march towards achievements
and success.
Democracy
Pakistan has established its credentials for
democracy. It has one of the few Muslim
democracies that are functional. In the years
6 Green Book 2017
to come its democratic institutions will be made
more representative, more people-centred, more
accountable, and more responsive. Democracy
would move to grass roots to resolve local problems
by local people. Pakistan’s growing stature would,
however, require a strong federation, though the
18th amendment has atrophied it considerably.
Some remedial steps should be taken to restore the
balance; and the system of checks and balances
should be streamlined.
Defence capability
Pakistan has come a long way in developing
its strategic and conventional deterrent. But in
defence there is always vulnerability. One is never
one hundred per cent secure because of existing
and emerging threats. Weaponry and machinery
become obsolete; soldiers need constant training
and motivation.
Pakistan needs to work on four fronts to
maintain credibility and effectiveness of its defence.
One, bridge the deficits in tanks, armored
vehicles, artillery and rocket launchers; fighter,
attack, transport and trainer aircraft; and attack
and transport helicopters.
Two, with the advent of the China-Pakistan
Economic Corridor envisaging trans-regional and
trans-oceanic trade, Pakistan should acquire
and develop, in greater numbers and of higher
quality, frigates, patrol and mine warfare ships,
and submarines; and, in the long run, destroyers,
corvettes and an aircraft carrier. The last set of
capabilities may sound a bit too ambitious at the
moment, but Pakistan, as a nuclear power and an
increasingly influential economic player, would
need to add these competencies to its repertoire.
Overall, Pakistan would need to reorientate its
defence strategy to build strong naval muscle
Pakistan Armed Forces participating in
Pakistan Day Parade 23rd March 2017
Annual Formation Commanders Conference held at GHQ
being presided over by COAS Gen Qamar Javed Bajwa
which would help it defend sea lanes in the areas
adjacent to Pakistan’s maritime coast and protect
its emerging marine economy.
Three, Pakistan’s nuclear deterrent
requires constant modernisation, up-gradation and
refurbishing of its warheads, as well as strategic and
tactical delivery vehicles. This modernisation has
to, at the minimum, keep pace with India who has
been pumping huge resources to boost its nuclear
power. Moreover, Pakistan needs to remain
ahead of the curve and maintain a qualitative
edge in the nuclear realm. Equal attention should
be given to the rejuvenation of nuclear industrial
establishments and command and control systems.
Four, for national security, Pakistan needs
to develop skills and technical ability to create a
secure and stable cyber space for its economic and
industrial complexes, as well as the capability to
safeguard critical infrastructure and combating
cybercrime, which is becoming rampant.
Sun Tzu’s age old adage of “winning
without fighting” should be the basic guideline
for defence, but it is evident that one needs a very
high level of foolproof and failsafe preparedness
of personnel, weapons, and equipment covering
both existing and projected threat scenarios.
Pakistan’s posture would never be aggressive, but it
should prepare rigorously for countering perceived
threats. For that a defence doctrine, leaving room
for some necessary ambiguity, should be articulated
PAKISTAN ARMY
authoritatively - a doctrine that should be anchored
in peace, stability and prosperity in the region and
beyond. More importantly, for stronger defence one
needs a strong industrial base to support military
infrastructure. Any deficiency in these areas will be
fatal.
Internal Security
Pakistan’s internal security is threatened by
three menaces that require both kinetic and
non-kinetic responses. These are terrorism,
violent extremism and proxy war by India.
Pakistan would not lower its guard on fighting
terrorism and extremism because these two twin
scourges imperil nation’s security and if not
opposed and eliminated with full vigour, these may
well undo the state itself. Terrorism and extremism
too have external roots which can be traced to the
US-led war against the Soviet Union in Afghanistan
in the 1980s and the war against terrorism
prosecuted by the US coalition since 2001. It is true
that in the past 35 years, terrorism was embraced by
some indigenous outfits but they have never been
free agents and their actions have been wholly or
partly masterminded by their external sponsors.
The avalanche of civil wars and internecine
conflicts which started with the Arab spring is
headed towards all Muslim countries particularly to
Green Book 2017 7
 PAKISTAN ARMY
the countries contiguous to the Middle East. Pakistan
is not invulnerable to the swelling currents of this
giant maelstrom. Fleeing refugees, radicalised
elements, misguided ideologues - all can suck
Pakistan into this turbulence, caused by sectarian
and militant fault lines. What is most obvious is
that the Middle Eastern nations and their leaders
are bent on inflicting fatal wounds on their polities
and it appears that new leadership structures will
emerge from the ashes of the multiple civil and
diplomatic wars going on in the Middle East. If the
fallout of this strife gets enmeshed with Pakistan’s
existing threats of terrorism and extremism, the
poisonous brew could ruin Pakistan.
Therefore, Pakistan has to beef up its own
immunity against this rising tide by keeping
a decent distance, while not abandoning its
traditional allies.
The third threat manifests itself through
a determined thrust by India to punish Pakistan
for its stand on Kashmir. After 1995, the year
when the freedom movement in Kashmir reached
its peak, India used its proxies to fuel subversion
and discord by a systematic practice of the fourth
generation warfare whereby, through espionage and
operational activities, it has targeted civilian and
military institutions, elites and masses, economic
enterprises and political parties of Pakistan.
Hoping for a civil implosion, it aims to exploit all
weak spaces and areas. Those, who think this is
paranoia, should check out some confessional
pronouncements made publicly by Indian leaders,
past and present.
These being existential threats, Pakistan
should counter them with effective tools of
intelligence, counter-insurgency and counter-
terrorism. But even more important is to develop
and propagate narratives that capture the essence
of Pakistan’s statehood and the aspirations of its
people to shape a just and humane society focused
on human development, decent livelihoods,
knowledge, and strong economy. These narratives
should not be hollow and bureaucratic riddled
with cliches, but ones moulding and projecting the
values of Pakistan fed by Islam and humanity. Civil
society has to get involved to define the persona of
Pakistan.
Diplomacy
Pakistan’s diplomacy is by and large on track,
but it has to make some adjustments and
break new ground. While strengthening ties
with China, continue to seek a robust relationship
with the US, especially in the field of science
8 Green Book 2017
and technology and commerce. This balance is
important and Pakistan should learn from China
which has deftly maintained strong economic ties
with the US despite sharp differences between the
two countries. Europe, Canada, Australia and New
Zealand offer many opportunities which must not be
neglected. In the Middle East and the Gulf, remain
engaged and disengaged; be equidistant between
rivals but explore common ground for promoting
unity within the Ummah. In the region, Pakistan’s
lodestar should be economic, not political or
ideological. Move deeper into Central Asia again
using economic levers among others through
the instrumentality of the Shanghai Cooperation
Organisation. A deliberate effort needs to be made
to build closer relationships with the African and
South East Asian nations. It is high time Pakistan
fleshed out its largely dormant Africa policy and
Vision East Asia. In due course, Africa would use
CPEC; and East Asia is by and large hospitable to
Pakistan’s products, business and services. In turn,
these regions have a lot to offer to Pakistan.
Pakistan should strengthen its bonds
with its allies and build new coalitions. China,
Turkey, Saudi Arabia and some Gulf states have
all been good allies; but it would be productive to
develop multi-dimensional ties with Russia and
its own allies within the CIS. Iran is important as
a neighbour and as a route for a potential Western
land corridor for Pakistan’s access to Central Asia,
Turkey and Europe.
It is important that Pakistan has a vision
of its pragmatic foreign policy evolving with the
global trends.
Pakistan should discard its Cold War fixations
and experiment with models that would
promise greater security for Pakistan and
promote Pakistan’s economic interests.
Strategic and political angles dominate
Pakistan’s foreign policy and that is a sound
approach; but now economics should be moved to
the centre because that too is strategic. Pakistan’s
economic and diplomatic apparatus is inadequate
and anemic. In fact, Pakistan does very little to
establish is presence and lobby at world economic
forums and multilateral institutions in general
for attracting investment. Diplomacy is equated
largely with peace, security, disarmament and
human rights; while economic dimensions are
considered secondary. This needs to be rectified
now that Pakistan’s economic clout is increasing.
Pakistan has reached a stage where it
can deal with India and that frustrates the latter.
Pakistan should pursue a nuanced, multi-pronged
policy towards India. It should remain firm on its
policy on Kashmir, oppose Delhi’s state sponsored
terrorist activities in Pakistan and fight off its
attempts to isolate Pakistan diplomatically. At the
same time, it should keep the door open for dialogue
and diplomacy, without falling into the trap of a
dialogue on Kashmir that promises no results and
in fact reduces its primacy. Pakistan’s face should
be one of goodwill and fair play. No ill-will towards
neighbours but no countenancing of injustice
either. One should not forget that large chunks
of Indian civil society are keen to have peace,
amity and justice, despite dangerous forays of
Hindu zealots and extremists into their socio-
political milieu. India’s sworn hostility towards
Pakistan should also give a window of opportunity
to the latter to single-mindedly develop its economy.
It is axiomatic that there are no military
solutions of the Kashmir dispute; diplomacy is the
way forward but not the vapid charade of on and off
bilateral talks that has produced no results and has
in fact worked to India’s advantage. Pakistan has lost
ground by partially surrendering the international
track of decision-making on Kashmir. We should
go back to the UN forums - the UN Security Council
and Human Rights Council - which really matter;
PAKISTAN ARMY
and we should involve world parliaments and
citizenry in our endeavours. This would build moral
and political pressure on India to stop its killings in
the Indian Occupied Kashmir and respond to their
call for self-determination. Kashmiris have rejected
the status quo; Pakistan should adopt a dynamic
posture diplomatically to heed their call for azaadi.
Afghanistan will remain unstable for
some time to come. Therefore do not postulate
connectivity with or through Afghanistan in the
short term. Afghanistan is a victim of strategic
entanglements; and partly the current turmoil
is Afghan’s leadership’s choice because of their
alliance with India. Pakistan should wisely and
persistently associate China and Russia, as well as
other relevant actors, with a process that should
bring all stakeholders to peace table. This should be
a low-key effort, without hoping for instant gains,
so that Pakistan does not burn its fingers along the
way.
Grow rich and prosper
Deng Xiaoping famously said “Let some people
get rich first,” when China was graduating out
of equalitarian but unproductive communist
system. Pakistan should aim for an economic
system that reduces income gaps between rich
and poor, urban and rural populations; and
create conditions for distributive justice. This
Prime Minister Shahid Khaqan Abbasi
chairing a meeting of the National Security
Council (NSC) and reviewing security
situation along the Line of Control (LoC)
Green Book 2017 9
 PAKISTAN ARMY
Pakistan should aim for an economic system that reduces income gaps
between rich and poor, urban and rural populations; and create conditions for
distributive justice.
should not hamper growth that is key to economic
development and prosperity of all citizens. All
emerging markets owe their rise to growth models.
To stimulate growth Pakistan should mobilise and
train human resource, including labour, integrate
with regional and global markets, and provide
efficient economic governance. Higher growth
would also provide sufficient resources for growing
defence needs; and in due course defence industry
itself can become profitable.
Growth should take place in sync with the
United Nations’ Sustainable Development Agenda
2030. To get a major power status, Pakistan should,
on priority basis, end abject poverty, ensure healthy
lives, promote quality education, achieve women
empowerment, attain energy security, build
resilient infrastructure, promote industrialisation,
foster innovation, and combat climate change.
Growth would take off in Pakistan
by gradually transitioning from reliance on
means of production to knowledge economy,
to intellectual capital, and to the quantity
and quality of information. In this regard,
10 Green Book 2017
President, Defence Minister, CJCSC & COAS Reviewing
Pakistan Day Parade on 23rd March 2017
enhanced investment in ICT, digital technology,
nanotechnology and biotechnology will be critical.
Effective communication
Compared to its neighbours and its competitors
far afield, this is Pakistan’s weak area. Others
define Pakistan; Pakistan cannot effectively and
convincingly project its own image and identity.
This is partly because of neglect of social sciences
over the decades, and partly because of blurred
focus on national issues. Lenses should be adjusted
and there should be strategic investment in modern
tools of communication - TV networks, web-based
broadcasts and portals, social media, think tank,
and universities.
Soft Power
Pakistan has soft power but it is seldom
projected effectively. Many confuse soft power
with soft image or public diplomacy or cultural
events organised by embassies. The key word in
soft power is ‘power’ that includes national
airlines, peace keepers, successful economic
enterprises with global and regional outreach,
investment potential, and educational
institutions that attract foreign students. In a
rudimentary form, Pakistan has all these assets
which should be developed and displayed properly
in a professional manner.
Diaspora community
According to some estimates (ballpark at best but
still useful), Pakistan’s diaspora community
should range between 7 to 10 million. Now that
is a huge advantage not only in terms of overseas
Pakistanis’ remittances in billions of dollars but
also because of the influence they have in their
countries of adoption. Pakistani and Kashmiri
expatriates now own flourishing businesses, they
are active in politics, they are represented in local
councils and parliaments, they hold public and
corporate positions, and they influence decision-
making. Pakistan should move beyond its policy of
community welfare abroad to connecting with its
diaspora like China, India and Turkey, for instance,
have done. The sophistication of this connection (or
PAKISTAN ARMY
Parcham Party on March Pakistan Day
Parade 2017
lack thereof) would impinge on Pakistan’s national
security and economic prospects.
Leadership
Finally, Pakistan has to find its own formula for
participating in the new world order. It is not, and it
can’t be, a detached spectator. It is part of the play;
it is on the stage; it has no choice but to play its part
well. Quoting Den Xiaoping again, he advised his
nation back in the 1980s to “Hide your strength,
bide your time” and that was a sound advice which
can be adapted to Pakistan too.
Pakistan should avoid shrill rhetoric and
get down to brass tacks through solid
performance in commerce, science,
technology and defence.
Make no mistake: Pakistan has to be present at the
top global and regional tables where decisions are
made but it should do so by understanding the real
dynamics of power.
Green Book 2017 11
 W
PAKISTAN ARMY PAKISTAN ARMY

ars and conflicts are
considered as natural
phenomena of human
living. Deriving from
Sigmund Freud’s thesis
on “Why War?” and his
reference of ‘Thanatos’2
i.e. death instinct, armed conflict and conflict is
very much part of human experience to express
their dislikeness, displeasure, clash of interest or
difference of opinions or struggle between or among
ideologies or systems. International Organisations
are crucial to regulate warfare in lieu of Jus ad
bellum and Jus in bello, bring and maintain peace,
ensure harmonious relations among countries,
develop economic prospects and opportunities
among developed and developing countries and
to settle/look after world conflicts. The concept
of International Organisations emerged and
strengthened after the disastrous impact of two
world wars. While League of Nations (LoN, 1920 -
1946) was formed to bring the concept of collective
security, international peace and alliance making
Ms Maria Saifuddin Effendi is Assis- among countries, United Nations was founded in
tant Professor, Department of Peace
and Conflict Studies, National Defence
1945, to prevent conflict emergence and ensure
University, Islamabad, Pakistan regional and international peace. United Nations
has been playing an important role in dealing with
January 1948. India occupied Kashmir forcefully by
blackmailing the Hindu Maharaja of Kashmir. India
forced Maharaja to sign a controversial document,
the Instrument of Accession, on 26 October 1947.
Neither Pakistan nor Kashmiris buy Indian claims
to have Kashmir legally. There are doubts about
the very existence of the Instrument of Accession.
The United Nations also does not consider Indian
claim as legally valid: it recognises Kashmir as a
disputed territory.3 In the initial phase, UN played
an active role to ceasefire India-Pakistan first war
and monitor violent activities on the border through
UNCIP and UNMOGIP. Later, they couldn’t bring
any fruitful results to the oldest standing conflict
nor could convince India to see Kashmir with the
lens of Kashmiri perspective.
This paper dwells in three dimensions:
• The paper presents a conflict analysis
framework for Kashmir conflict.
• It maps and assesses the role of the UN in
Kashmir conflict as a peacekeeper (United
Nations Commission for India and Pakistan
– UNCIP under UN resolutions 1948) and as a
peacemaker (United Nations Military Observer
Group for India and Pakistan–UNMOGIP 1949).
It also deals with the question of the efficiency
an international organisation like UN could

Mapping UN Peacemaking
the contemporary conflicts since post World War II have displayed to help resolve/manage Kashmir
era. conflict.
• An overview would also be given on how the

in Kashmir
Almost all seven states in South Asia are
conflict prone and many of them have
experienced brutal large scale wars,
continuous civil wars, insurgency, religious
UN could have played a better role to fulfil
and expand the functions and mandate of the
Mission.
Before evaluating the role of UN in Kashmir

under Conflict Analysis Framework
Efficacy and Prospects
Abstract: The conflict of Kashmir was internationalised when India referred the case to
United Nations Security Council (UNSC) right after partition in 1947. Though minimum
and quite insignificant, but the United Nations (UN) has been keeping its presence in the
region through its standing mission known as United Nations Military Observer Group for
India and Pakistan (UNMOGIP). The conflict kept coming under UN limelight regularly, yet
none of the international efforts, UNSC Resolutions could relieve Kashmiris to have timely
and effective management or amiable and sustainable resolution of Kashmir conflict. This
study is conducted to look at the role of UN with detailed background on UNCIP, UNMOGIP,
UNIPOM, their functions and how the UN could have performed better or still can play a
more facilitating role in managing and resolving Kashmir conflict peacefully.
Key words: Kashmir, UN, UNCIP, UNMOGIP, UNIPOM, UNSC, India, Pakistan, Conflict
Mapping, Conflict Analysis Framework, Conflict Wheel, Early Warning, Conflict Prevention,
Crisis Management
militancy and ethnic conflicts.
The region is also referred as high risk nuclear
flashpoint because of the deep rooted hostility
between India and Pakistan over Kashmir. With
particular reference to United Nations in case
of Kashmir, it was involved right from the very
beginning since 1947. Kashmir obtained the
recognition as an international conflict with the
involvement of United Nations in 1948 when India
and Pakistan fought their first war in 1947. History
of India-Pakistan hostility is well known. They got
independence from British Colonialism in 1947.
While Kashmir remains the core of their conflict,
they have other issues as well such as Water dispute,
maritime boundary conflict, Sir Creek, Baglihar
Dam, Wullar Barrage, Continuous arms race etc.
The role of UN can be traced back in the wake of first
war between India and Pakistan after which India
brought Kashmir Conflict to UN Security Council in
conflict, the study entails a comprehensive analysis
of Kashmir conflict under a conceptual framework.
Conflict Analysis Framework for Kashmir
Centre for Security Studies4 designed seven tools to
analyse any conflict of national and international
significance. These are :5
• Conflict Wheel
• Conflict Tree
• Conflict Mapping
• Glasl’s Escalation Model
• INMEDIO’s Conflict Perspective Analysis
• Needs – Fears Mapping, and,
• Multi Causal Role Model.
However, Conflict Wheel is found as most relevant and
comprehensive to analyse Kashmir conflict. Conflict
Wheel, as per the study, gives a comprehensive
analysis of conflict. It introduces six important
dimensions of conflict analysis (dynamics, actors,
causation, structures, issues and options/strategies).6

12 Green Book 2017 Green Book 2017 13

 PAKISTAN ARMY
Kashmir: Conflict Profile and Dynamics
India and Pakistan acquired independence from
British Colonialism in August 1947. Since then,
the relationships between these two countries
were based on colonial legacy as well as historical
acrimony. The last 70 years didn’t happen to see a
single day of peace in Kashmir. Continuous violence,
violation of human rights and international law,
fractured social and economic life in the Indian
occupied Kashmir; this automatically led to
unpleasant diplomatic and political encounters
between India and Pakistan and lowered trade
volumes along with lesser willingness to keep
Pakistan Army Special Services Group – Part of UN
peace Keeping Force
14 Green Book 2017
PAKISTAN ARMY
neighbourly bilateral ties.
Geography: Jammu and Kashmir is encircled
with four sides; Indian Punjab, Pakistan’s side of
Kashmir, Some parts of Pakistan’s frontier province
and China. 39000 square miles are under Indian
administration, 30000 is integrated with Pakistan
and 17000 is with China out of total 86000 square
miles of this formerly princely state.7 “The majority
of the Kashmiri population living within India
resides in the Kashmir Valley (5.4 million people).
Those who live in the valley and the immediately
surrounding areas speak Kashmiri, a Dardic
tongue distinct from but influenced substantially
by Sanskrit, Persian, and Arabic.”8 Muslims form
the majority in Kashmir and Hindus and Buddhists
are the minority groups. There are three major
ethnic areas in Kashmir. Ladakh with majority
Buddhist population is in the northwest. The
Kashmir Valley which is controlled by India and
the part now controlled by Pakistan, both are with
Muslim majority, and Jammu (in the south), which
is majority Hindu. The overall majority is Muslim.9
“You can step over the body but you cannot step over the spirit”
History of the Conflict: Kashmir’s genesis can Indian Army atrocities across Indian occupied Kashmir
be extracted from British Colonial times. In 1846,
Treaty of Amritsar was signed between the British 100 years, Kashmir was ruled by Dogra descendants Hari Singh intentionally delayed his decision
government and Maharaja Gulab Singh. “According and proved as unpopular regime in the eyes of for Kashmir for two months after the Indo-Pak
to Article 1 of the treaty, mountainous region along indigenous Muslim community. partition in 1947. Not only Muslim population
with River Indus on the east and River Ravi on the Kashmir is known as a protracted conflict as majority but Kashmir enjoyed geographical
west, was transferred to the Maharaja by British for many reasons. Its historical dimension is already contiguity, communal and historical links, flow of
colonial masters.”10 Since 1846 till 1947, for almost disputed amongst its conflict actors. On 25 July river waters towards West Pakistan and also the
1947, the last viceroy of India, Lord Mountbatten most unique strategic position which connects
addressed a convention of the rulers of princely to China and Central Asia. In words of Saif: “The
states. Geographical contiguity and predominant catchments of the five main left bank tributaries of
religion emerged as guiding principles to decide the Indus all lay in the Indian Hill States or in Kashmir.
fate of 650 princely states. In theory, these princely Kashmir contains most of the catchments of three
states had the option of deciding which country to major rivers, the Jhelum, Chenab and Ravi. With
join, or of remaining independent.11 the partition of Punjab, the control of three rivers,
There were three princely states which the Ravi, Beas and Sutlej went to Indian domain
were also to join either of the two sides; Hyderabad, causing a loss of six million acres of land in West
Junagadh and Kashmir. Hyderabad and Junagadh Punjab. The inclusion of Kashmir in India meant the
had Muslim rulers and predominantly Hindu control over the Jhelum and Chenab rivers would
population and Kashmir had Hindu ruler with pass to India depriving the whole West Pakistan its
Muslims as majority population. Hyderabad main source of life.” 13
and Junagadh were known as cradle of Muslim
culture and civilisation and hence it was expected India’s takeover of Hyderabad and Junagadh
by Pakistani side that these states would fall into by force, the delaying decision of Hindu
the newly demarcated Muslim country. However, Maharaja of Kashmir with overwhelming
the expectations couldn’t be fulfilled and Bhopal, majority Muslim population automatically
Hyderabad and Junagadh were taken over by India broke hopes for Pakistan when India
by force. The emotions of the people of newly occupied Kashmir.
born Pakistan were deeply hurt when Hyderabad
and Junagadh were forcefully taken by India but The Maharaja of Kashmir decided to accede
Indian occupation of Jammu and Kashmir fuelled to India on the promise of military aid by India to
their sentiments furthermore.12 Kashmir’s Maharaja curb tribal revolt in Kashmir. The Maharaja delayed
Green Book 2017 15
 PAKISTAN ARMY
his decision in an effort to remain independent, but
was forced to choose India when internal revolt in
the Poonch region was turned into an organised
rebellion of the indigenous majority Muslims, later
joined by Pashtun tribesmen. It culminated with
massive killings of Hindus, Sikhs and Muslims
throughout the year led to hundreds of thousands
of refugees fleeing their homes where they were in
the religious minority.14 It was this situation which
India exploited when Maharaja requested for
military assistance and India agreed to assist him
only if he would join Indian Union.
The first war between India and Pakistan
started in November and continued till December
1947 over Kashmir. On 1st January 1948, India
referred the case of Kashmir to the United Nations.
The UN Security Council then passed a resolution
on 13 August 1948, asked Pakistan to remove its
troops, after which India was also to withdraw the
bulk of its forces. The UN intervention ended the war
between India and Pakistan; it also established the
U.N. Military Observer Group on India and Pakistan
(UNMOGIP) in 1948 to monitor ceasefire line (later
turned as Line of Control). Pakistan controls the far
northern and western areas of the state where as
the Kashmir valley, Jammu, and Ladakh are under
India’s control.15 The UNSC Resolution 1948 also
emphasised a free and fair plebiscite to be held in
Kashmir once situation gets normalised. Since then,
India never withdrew its forces nor had normalised
the situation in Kashmir to hold plebiscite where
Kashmiris are allowed to enjoy their right of self
determination.
Conflict Actors and their Positions on Kashmir
At present, there are three main conflict actors
for Kashmir issue; Pakistan, India and Kashmiris.
Pakistan’s stand on Kashmir is based on two
principles:
• Two-Nation Theory: Two Nation Theory
was foundation of Pakistan’s Freedom
16 Green Book 2017
Movement in pre 1947 sub-continent.
According to it, Hindus and Muslims were
two distinct nations and 3rd June 1947
Plan clearly indicated princely states may
join either side with the consideration of
geographical contiguity and communal
/religious connection. Since Kashmir
had Muslim population ruled by Hindu
Maharaja, Kashmir belonged to Pakistan
naturally.
• Pakistan supports Kashmiris in Indian Held
Kashmir on the moral grounds and condemns
India’s brutal violence on Kashmiri population.
Indian position on Kashmir comes along with
brutality. Since 1947, India has maintained
Kashmir as the highest militarised zone in South
Asia, violating human rights almost every day,
bombing and killing innocent civilians, raping
Kashmiri women, curbing their basic right for self
determination which was promised at the time of
treaty of accession with Maharaja and despite the
two UN resolutions. India’s position is based on
three principles:
• India considers Kashmir as its internal issue. It
also believes that Kashmir is part of the country
on the basis of accession of the Princely State
of Kashmir to India after the first war between
India and Pakistan in October 1947. In words of
Tristam: ‘Instead, India has maintained what
amounts to an occupying army in Kashmir,
cultivating more resentment from the locals
than fertile agricultural products. Modern
India’s founders, Jawaharlal Nehru and
Mahatma Gandhi, both had Kashmiri roots,
which partially explains India’s attachment
to the region. To India, “Kashmir for the
Kashmiris” means nothing. Indian leaders’
standard line is that Kashmir is “an integral
part” of India’.16
• India also rejects Pakistan’s position on
Kashmir and alleges Pakistan for its support to
Kashmiris.
• India is not ready to give Kashmiris right of
self-determination because it may threaten
territorial integrity of India in terms of its
conflict prone northeastern part called seven
sisters; Assam, Nagaland, Manipur, Arunachal
Pardesh, Mizoram, Tripura and Sikkim. The
region has long been centre of homegrown
insurgencies since long. Approving right of self-
determination to Kashmiris will automatically
raise hopes for other insurgent or separatist
tendencies to challenge writ of Indian
government.
Kashmiris have mixed opinions; some aspire
to have independent Kashmir, whereas some
want to join Pakistan’s side of Kashmir. Many
of the groups want to exercise their right of self-
determination. “The Kashmir conflict represents a
self-determination (and more recently, secessionist)
movement for Kashmiris; an irredentist movement
for Pakistan and Pakistan-controlled Kashmir; and
a civil insurgency for India.”17 The three conflict
actors have different views on Kashmir conflict.
Pakistan views it as a major human rights issue
with disputed territorial boundary with India. India
sees it as a hurdle to have trade and other ties with
Pakistan. India has rejected U.N. resolutions and its
proposed plebiscite in Kashmir, for the reason that
Kashmiris participate in national elections in India,
which nullifies their demand to have a plebiscite.
Pakistan supports UN resolutions. Several of the
freedom fighting groups in Kashmir also support
plebiscite but argue that an independent Kashmir
should be an option.18 In 2015-16, continuous unrest
in Kashmir unfolded newer twist and while the
valley went through worst of violence via pellet
guns against civilians, especially youth, caused 53
days of continuous curfew, ban on electronic and
social media, there emerged a revival of Kashmiri
freedom struggle through its charged and energetic
youth refusing and rejecting to be subjugated by
Indian forces. Holding Pakistani flag, chanting
slogans of “Pakistan Zindabad” clearly shows how
brutally they are being suppressed and what they
are envisioning for their future.
Conflict Causation and Structures
As discussed in its historical part above, the main
causation of Kashmir conflict lies in three main
factors:
• The deliberate decision of British colonial
masters through 3rd June 1947 Plan to leave
princely states without a clear and directed
decision and to give them choice to join either
side. It instigated Kashmir as a legacy of
PAKISTAN ARMY
partition plan, suggested and given by British
masters.
• India’s haste to annex Hyderabad, Junagadh
and Bhopal forcibly brought Pakistan
under distress and pressure with regard to
Kashmir which had muslim majority, shared
geographical contiguity and expected to join
Pakistan.
• UN Resolution of 21 April 1948 clearly
recommended a plebiscite to be held in
Jammu and Kashmir yet India never made
the situation normalised in the valley to
hold plebiscite. In Clause B, Number 7, it is
mentioned: “The Government of India should
undertake that there will be established in
Jammu and Kashmir a Plebiscite as soon as
possible on the question of the accession of
the State to India or Pakistan.”19 Since 1947, the
valley has been on fire, under the threat and
brutality of Indian security forces. Bloodshed,
killings, rapes, bombings have become routine
feature in Kashmir and this took away the
possibility of plebiscite to be held in Kashmir.
The orientation and structure of Kashmir conflict
is referred as an inter – state territorial dispute. It
is considered as freedom struggle against Indian
suppression in Kashmir. For India, it’s a home-
grown insurgency, supported by non-state actors
and regional players. For Pakistan, it is the most
protracted and violent conflict of contemporary
South Asian history which is based on human
rights violation of Kashmiri freedom struggle by
Indian forces and government.
Having mentioned all causation, root causes,
positions of conflict actors, Kashmir is a
major historical, ideological and territorial
conflict between India and Pakistan with
massive human rights violation and brutal
violence over innocent civilians in Kashmir
by stationed Indian troops.
Mapping the UN Intervention in Kashmir
The UN got involved in Kashmir in the backdrop
of first war between India and Pakistan right after
independence in 1947 when India referred the
Kashmir issue to the UN. In words of Brecher; UN
had five distinct phases: “(i) direct Security Council
intervention during the first six months of 1948;
(2) the suggestion of bases of agreement by the
U.N. Commission on India and Pakistan from July
I948 to December 1949; (3) informal mediation at
the end of 1949 by General A. G. L. McNaughton,
President of the Security Council at the time; (4) the
Green Book 2017 17
 PAKISTAN ARMY
proposals of Sir Owen Dixon, Australian jurist and
diplomat, in his capacity as U.N. Representative for
India and Pakistan, from April to September 1950;
and (5) the efforts of Dr. Frank Graham, from April
I95I to March I953, to secure the parties’ agreement
to a programme of demilitarisation, which is a
prerequisite for a mutually-accepted plebiscite.”20
During these five phases, UN had emerged as a
peacemaker and peacekeeper to deal with Kashmir
conflict. It established immediate ceasefire as a
peacekeeper (UNCIP) and monitored the activities
of Indian and Pakistani forces as peacekeeper and
peacemaker (UNMOGIP).
India brought the conflict to the UNSC on
1 January 1948 under Article 35 of the UN Charter,
against Pakistan for its assistance to tribesmen and
other invaders to violate its sovereignty.21 Pakistan
positioned its stance too by charging India for its
forceful occupation of Kashmir without the consent
of local Kashmiris towards the instrument of
18 Green Book 2017
“Courage is just another kind of Weapon” A kid showing
his resolve to the occupant Army In Indian Held Kashmir
accession. It was in this backdrop when the UNSC
adopted two resolutions on 17th and 20th January
1948. The first Resolution 38 encouraged India and
Pakistan to hold bilateral dialogue. The second
Resolution 39 established the United Nations
Commission for India and Pakistan (UNCIP), to
investigate and prevent border clashes and active
violence in Kashmir and facilitate and mediate
India and Pakistan to have viable solution.22
UNCIP
The UN formed United Nations Commission for
India and Pakistan’s (UNCIP) in 1948 to establish
peace during the times of heightened tensions in
immediate post partitioned time period. It was
tasked to facilitate and settle this conflict between
India and Pakistan by demilitarising the zone,
normalising situation and preparing for the fair
and impartial plebiscite in Kashmir. It was short
lived and lasted for only two years from June 1948
to March 1950. Sir Owen Dixon was delegated as
the UN Representative for India and Pakistan. His
task was to assume the responsibilities of UNCIP,
to prepare for the Plebiscite Administrator for
Jammu and Kashmir, and to assist in preparation
for, and supervision of, demilitarisation.23 There
were three representatives to be selected for UNCIP,
each to be selected by the two countries and third
to be delegated by the two so selected. UNCIP
passed two resolutions on August 13, 1948 and
January 5, 1949 respectively. “On 5 January 1949,
UNCIP (United Nations Commission for India and
Pakistan) Resolution states that the question of
the accession of the State of Jammu and Kashmir
to India or Pakistan will be decided through a
free and impartial plebiscite. As per the 1948 and
1949 UNCIP Resolutions, both countries accept the
principle, that Pakistan secures the withdrawal
of Pakistani intruders followed by withdrawal
of Pakistani and Indian forces, as a basis for the
PAKISTAN ARMY
formulation of a Truce agreement whose details are
to be arrived in future, followed by a plebiscite.”24
UNCIP served as a peacekeeper too, by engaging
observers to monitor and prevent violence between
India and Pakistan and encourage them through
its peacemaking efforts. However, UNCIP failed to
maintain minimum presence for Indian military
in Kashmir and couldn’t help Indian occupied
Kashmir to hold plebiscite. UNCIP facilitated
the first agreement between India and Pakistan
with the help of Britain. “The Karachi Agreement
was a cease-fire agreement signed by Military
Representatives of India and Pakistan on 27th of
July 1949.”25 According to the agreement, the 800-
mile front in Jammu and Kashmir was agreed as
the ceasefire line (CFL) by India and Pakistan.
The agreement neither served as a permanent
solution to Kashmir conflict nor helped the two
countries to conduct a long lasting or impactful
peace process. However it did prevent India and
Pakistan from war till 1965.
UNMOGIP 26
United Nations Military Observer Group in India and
Pakistan (UNMOGIP) was established in July 1949 to
monitor and observe the activities and mobilisation
of Indian and Pakistani forces across and along
the Line of Control (previously Ceasefire Line). The
signature of Karachi Agreement in July 1949 gave
birth to this military observer group to monitor
newly established ceasefire line. These observers,
under the command of the Military Adviser, formed
the nucleus of the United Nations Military Observer
Group in India and Pakistan (UNMOGIP). After
the termination of UNCIP on 30 March 1951, it was
decided by UNSC through its resolution 91 (1951)
that UNMOGIP should continue to supervise the
ceasefire in Kashmir. UNMOGIP’s functions were
to observe and report, investigate complaints of
ceasefire violations and submit its findings to each
party and to the Secretary-General. 27
With the second outbreak of war between
India and Pakistan in 1965, UNMOGIP was
extended further with the establishment of United
Nations India and Pakistan Observer Mission
(UNIPOM). UNMOGIP had a difficult time when
India and Pakistan fought third war in December
1971. The two countries violated Ceasefire Line
agreed in July 1949 Agreement. The direct cause
of war was not Kashmir but Indian intervention
in civil crisis between Western and Eastern parts
of Pakistan (East-Pakistan is now Bangladesh).
With the end of war and another ceasefire agreed
by the two countries, Ceasefire Line (CFL) which
Green Book 2017 19
 PAKISTAN ARMY
was established in 1949 was transformed into Line
of Control (LoC) in July 1972 agreement, known
as Simla Accord. UNMOGIP is one of the oldest
peacekeeping missions of UN which is still at
work.
UNIPOM
United Nations India and Pakistan Observer
Mission (UNIPOM) was established in 1965 in wake
of second war between India and Pakistan. In
early 1965, relations between India and Pakistan
were strained again because of their conflicting
claims over the Rann of Kutch at the southern
end of the international boundary. The situation
steadily deteriorated during the summer of 1965,
and in August, military hostilities between India
and Pakistan erupted on a large scale along the
ceasefire line in Kashmir.28 This war lasted for
five weeks and was ended with the UN-mandated
ceasefire which came to effect as a result of Security
Council’s resolution on 22 September 1965. The
resolution demanded an unconditional ceasefire
between India and Pakistan. Thus hostilities came
to an end on 23rd September 1965.
Later, the ceasefire agreement was brokered
between India and Pakistan by the former Soviet
Union in Tashkent on 10 January 1966, known as
Tashkent Agreement. The declaration stressed
that both sides will exert all efforts to create good
neighbourly relations between Pakistan and India
in accordance with the United Nations Charter.
20 Green Book 2017
“The new face of the freedom” Freedom
Fighter “Burhan Wani” Funeral on June 9,
2016
They reaffirmed their obligations under the Charter
not to return to violation and to settle their disputes
through peaceful means.
UNIPOM was a temporary arrangement,
extension of UNMOGIP which was specifically set
up to supervise the ceasefire line along with India
and Pakistan near the State of Jammu and Kashmir.
The function of UNIPOM was primarily to observe
and report on breaches of the ceasefire as called for
by the Security Council. In cases of breaches, the
observers were to do all they could to persuade the
local commanders to restore the ceasefire, but they
had no authority or power to order a cessation of
firing. Ninety observers were assigned to UNIPOM.29
On 22 March 1966, UNIPOM was terminated and
all the additional observers were sent back to their
countries.
Critical Assessment of the UN Peacemaking in
Kashmir: Efficacy and Prospects
Through Simla Agreement 1972, Kashmir is referred
as a bilateral conflict. While India was the first
country to internationalise Kashmir Conflict by
referring it to UN in 1948, it managed to refer
Kashmir as an issue to be discussed under bilateral
negotiations. On 1 January 1948, India lodged a
formal complaint against Pakistan accusing it of
helping the tribesmen. It asked the Security Council
to put pressure on Pakistan to cease helping the
tribesmen.30
The involvement of UN made Kashmir as
an international conflict in 1948. However
UN was expected to have played a greater,
effective and more meaningful role in
managing and resolving the conflict between
India and Pakistan which it could not.
The UN played its role in Kashmir Conflict
through UNCIP, UNMOGIP and UNIPOM. Among
all, the only existing mission is UNMOGIP. UNCIP
passed two resolutions in 1948 and 1949 respectively.
It also laid foundation of Karachi Agreement and
UNMOGIP. Both resolutions maintained withdrawal
of Indian and Pakistani troops in wake of the first
war between them in 1947-48 and arrangement of
plebiscite to decide Kashmir’s fate. Yet none of these
resolutions were implemented in letter and spirits.
In words of Shakoor: “These UNCIP resolutions
which formed the major part of UN involvement
in Kashmir, however could not be implemented
as both Pakistan and India, the two parties to
the dispute, failed to agree on the modalities of a
plebiscite. Moreover, these resolutions were non-
binding in nature and did not impose any sanctions
against the concerned parties, if they failed to carry
out the conditions set in the two above mentioned
resolutions.31 The nature of these resolutions was
non binding and could not be enforced upon by UN.
UNMOGIP is a peacekeeping (military
/ traditional security) mission that had no role
PAKISTAN ARMY
in peacebuilding (human security) of Kashmir
conflict between India and Pakistan. It manages
its finances under a regular UN budget of $. 7.92
million.32 UNMOGIP is still at work and has
its headquarters in Rawalpindi (Pakistan)
and Srinagar (Jammu and Kashmir). It has 44
military observers (from Sweden, Denmark,
Chile, Finland, Croatia, Italy, Republic of
Korea and Uruguay), 21 international civilian
personnel and 49 local civilian staff.33
The role of UNMOGIP has always been
limited and unfortunately it could not expand its
domain beyond merely observing the border clashes
between India and Pakistan throughout these
seven decades. Despite the exchange of reports
between its two offices in Rawalpindi and Srinagar,
the mission has failed to prevent India and Pakistan
from escalating violence in 1965, 1971, 1987-89,
1999, 2001-02 and very recently since 2012 till today.
Border clashes, despite the UNMOGIP as standing
valid mission, go unnoticed and untreated at UN
level. The monitoring and observing mission has
proved quite ineffective as it couldn’t implement the
UN resolutions which emphasised on arrangement
of plebiscite to decide ultimate fate of Kashmir.
During the initial time period of UN
resolutions in 1948-50, the UN with its missions
in Kashmir (UNCIP and UNMOGIP) could not
investigate violations along the borders, nor could
it push India to hold plebiscite which was supposed
“Unconquerable spirit” Freedom Movement gaining
momentum after the Shahadat of Burhan Wani
Green Book 2017 21
 PAKISTAN ARMY
to be the most important task before UN mission
in Kashmir. In words of Chakravarty: “Resolution
91, adopted by the Security Council in March 1951,
called for arbitration in case demilitarisation did
not happen within three months. Second, the
Commission was phased out to give way to the UN
Military Observers Group for India and Pakistan. But
the UNMOGIP could merely investigate complaints
of ceasefire violations and submit its report to
either party or to the UN Secretary General. Third,
the resolution took note of the new constituent
assembly for Jammu and Kashmir, elected earlier
that year. But these elections were not considered
a substitute for plebiscite. India rejected the
resolution.”34
The Ceasefire Agreement 1949 could not
be honoured in 1965 when India and Pakistan
opted for their second war and UNMOGIP was
not strong enough to prevent them from it. India
charged Pakistan with 585 violations in 34 days,
while Pakistan countered with accusations of
450 incidents by India.35 Since 1949, UNMOGIP
22 Green Book 2017
was given a special task to monitor and observe
violations of ceasefire by India and Pakistan.
UNIPOM, an adjunct to UNMOGIP, was established
in order to restore peace between India and Pakistan
in the backdrop of 1965 war. It was successful
to demobilise and demilitarise troops of the two
sides along Ceasefire Line and persuaded the two
neighbours to sign Tashkent Agreement. However
it was short-lived with time oriented and target
oriented mandate.
UNMOGIP succeeded to make negative
peace till six years in 1966-1971. In 1971, third
war between India and Pakistan broke out with
deadliest outcomes. UNMOGIP faced a crucial
phase of its validity. India outlawed and refused to
continue with the validity of the observer mission.
In Simla Accord 1971, India and Pakistan agreed to
transform Ceasefire Line (CFL) into Line of Control
(LoC). UNMOGIP was established exclusively to
monitor the mobilisation of Indian and Pakistani
troops at Ceasefire Line (transformed as LoC) and
therefore India questioned the validity of UNMOGIP.
Pakistan rejected India’s stance on UNMOGIP and
insisted on the continuation of the tasks under the
Mission. Hence United Nations strictly reiterated
that the mission could only be terminated by the
decision of Security Council.
The most promising feature of UNMOGIP
is that it prevented India and Pakistan to have
an all-out war for 15 years from 1949 to 1965.
Albeit the two countries had negative peace and
there were border clashes and tension along the
Ceasefire Line but there was no exchange of heavy
bombing and had less sabre rattling.
Kashmir conflict was internationalised
because Security Council passed four resolutions in
order to manage crisis between India and Pakistan
over Kashmir. India, now, considers it the gravest
blunder of Indian leadership to take up Kashmir
issue to General Assembly in January 1948. The
international community always stressed the
peaceful resolution of Kashmir, however, in case of
Kashmir, it displays apathy and UN seems failed to
convince India to take Kashmir conflict seriously.
PAKISTAN ARMY
After going through the history of
skirmishes, limited and large scale wars
between the two countries, one cannot regard
UNMOGIP as a ‘successful’ mission. Despite the
presence of international observer team, India and
Pakistan fought three major wars in 1965, 1971 and
1999 and several low-scale border clashes. India
and Pakistan have experienced military stand-offs
in 1989 and 2000-2001 which were close to an open
war and fought a low-scale war in Kargil in the
summer of 1999. Since 2012, the two countries are
engaged and affected by border clashes. The recent
years especially 2014-16, Kashmiris saw the extreme
level of brutal and inhuman violence and human
rights violation by Indian troops and no empathy
rather negligence from the UN and international
community on this burning conflict makes one
questions the existence of UNMOGIP.
As per Indian stance, Kashmir is part of
Indian Union and there is no point to consider it
even as a dispute despite India itself brought into
international lime light as an international conflict
in 1947-48. If Kashmiris are Indian citizens, they
should not be suffering with brutal and intense
violence within their own land by their own
armed forces. The most significant right of self
determination has been denied to Kashmiris by
Indian government for the past 70 years in Kashmir.
The continuous border clashes between India and
Pakistan makes UN’s domain to deal with regional
and international conflicts highly criticized and
questioned which could not establish even negative
peace in South Asia.
The question still remains if Kashmir only
deserves a mention in the UNSC meetings once
a year, if Kashmiris bleed blue or green not red to
be taken seriously by international community
and organisation such as United Nations. Chapter
VI of UN Charter, Article 33 says: The parties to
any dispute, the continuance of which is likely to
endanger the maintenance of international peace
and security, shall, first of all, seek a solution by
negotiation, enquiry, mediation, conciliation,
arbitration, judicial settlement, resort to regional
agencies or arrangements, or other peaceful means
of their own choice.36 The continuous bloodshed
and Indian suppression makes Kashmir as a
continuing threat to regional and international
peace and security. The UN needs to revive its role
in facilitating Kashmiris to seek out a peaceful
solution. Being a cherish international organisation,
the UN needs to pursue its resolutions on Kashmir
in letter and spirit, to encourage the two countries
to be engaged with continuous peace process and
Green Book 2017 23
 PAKISTAN ARMY
to make India realise its violent Kashmir policy is
ruining its own future in contemporary world order.
Recommendations
UNMOGIP is a continuing observing mission since
1949 but this is not an enough cause to render it a
very successful mission. Its focus has largely been
on monitoring and observing the developments
and incidents on the borders and between India
and Pakistan. The findings reveal that it has
fulfilled its mandate to restore negative peace
between India-Pakistan armies to some extent.
Monitoring and Observation doesn’t end purpose of
the existence of UNMOGIP. It has to help India and
Pakistan creating positive peace in the region. The
key of positive peace lies in continuous interest of
UN to discourage India for its belligerent position
on Kashmir, encourage both India and Pakistan
to hold dialogue, supporting peace building
activities and humanitarian relief services to the
sufferers of Kashmir Conflict. Greater coordination
between local NGOs and relief workers, media
and academicians and international financial
institutions is needed to address the issues of the
Kashmiris on the two sides of border. In order
to expand its activities, the UN should convince
stakeholders of Kashmir conflict that it is working
24 Green Book 2017
in the best interest of the region. At present, the UN
is not even playing a justifying role as a monitoring
mission. Every day, there are numerous killings
within Indian held Kashmir, border clashes on
both sides, worsening relations between India and
Pakistan, low volume of diplomatic initiatives etc
and the international community and particularly
the UN keeps their eyes shut from this volatility of
South Asian region.
The paper also identifies few areas where
UN could have managed to work but it did not.
They are; humanitarian services for Kashmiris,
economic infrastructure, crisis management and
conflict prevention of other issues that are not
directly related to Kashmir but worsening bilateral
relations, involvement of other regional and
international organisations in economic and social
welfare etc. Few Recommendations are proposed to
get the UN more involved by expanding its existing
mission in the region, they are:
Early Warning Analysis, Conflict Prevention and
Crisis Management
Since 1949, UNMOGIP has been observing
the forces to some extent but it did not play a
proactive role as a peace making mission. The
main areas of a peacekeeping and peacemaking
mission are not only conflict prevention but also
crisis management. In order to focus on crisis
management, UNMOGIP should develop its
capacity to address root causes of the conflict.
Since India refuses involvement of third party
in Kashmir issue, UNMOGIP should help the two
countries by playing a very cautious and neutral
role. Neutral role can be played in a way that the
observers should encourage negotiations between
India-Pakistan armies. There are many military
issues between India and Pakistan, e.g. Siachen
Glacier, demarcation of maritime boundary etc.
In case of Indian refusal to accept UNMOGIP’s
involvement in these issues, the observer team can
help them to sketch out an early warning analysis
framework to prevent and manage these issues.
Traditional security is one of the main issues
between them. This initiative would also help them
reviving hotline between DGMOs and early warning
mechanism would help them overcoming border
violence. This would make a huge difference in the
bilateral relations between the two armies.
Focus on Fairer Gender related issues
The UN should also focus on fairer gender issues
of Kashmir by involving women activists and
organisations. Kashmiri women have been suffering
for so long. Their voice needs to be heard, they
should be given platform to voice their concerns.
The UN should enhance role of Kashmiri women in
peacebuilding projects and activities.
The unfinished agenda of Partition - Kashmir
PAKISTAN ARMY
Cooperation from Regional and International
Organisations
The UN should generate and encourage more
participation from regional and international
bodies. It may help introduce economic
development models with the involvement of any
regional organisation of which India and Pakistan
are members. South Asian Association for Regional
Cooperation (SAARC) can be considered as a good
platform. The Charter of SAARC emphasises on
economic development and social well being of
the South Asian countries. It is more focused on
human security and development. By combining its
efforts with such regional organisation, UN could
contribute in bridging the gap between India and
Pakistan in economic affairs as well.
Annual Revision of the Mission Mandate
UNMOGIP should review and revise its mandate
annually. The regional and domestic political
dynamics have changed during 70 years. The
prevailing bilateral relations between India and
Pakistan are not promising in the backdrop of the
ongoing case of Indian spy Jadev Kalboshan. The
two countries are vulnerable and this vulnerability
of paranoia can be exploited by regional spoilers
at any point of time. It is high time to have UN on
board for its proactive and more meaningful role to
create space for peace. The UN should include few
more tasks in the mandate to help building peace
in Kashmir.
Green Book 2017 25
 PAKISTAN ARMY
Conclusion
Violence is the worst expression being in
the conflict. It ruins human lives, devastates
economic infrastructure, physical structure of
the conflict zone and it makes people displaced
in or from their own land. There is nothing
more brutal than war in contemporary history.
Kashmir is one of the oldest and most important
conflicts in the world. The United Nations as
an international organisation assumes greater
responsibility to help countries manage their
conflicts through bilateral or multilateral efforts.
It cannot dictate the conflict parties to resolve
their issues but can facilitate them to identify and
address their differences to bring peace throughout
the world. In case of Kashmir, its role seems
disappointing but considering its influence in the
international community raises hopes for a better
future. The clever Indian lobby and propaganda
against Pakistan remains the major hurdle and
challenge to awaken and sustain international
support for Kashmir cause. The UN missions have
made contributions to create and maintain negative
peace between India and Pakistan, yet it proved
itself helpless to prevent massive violence in the
bleeding Kashmir Valley during all these years. The
standing mission of UNMOGIP’s role is not restricted
to exchange reports on border clashes at the end of
every year. It needs to be revived and encouraged to
take lead to manage border tensions between India
and Pakistan, to take Indian brutality over innocent
civilians in Kashmir an urgent issue to be discussed
and addressed, to engage India and Pakistan for
a sustainable dialogue to resolve Kashmir conflict
peacefully. More interest and support is required
from international community to have Kashmir
resolved the way Kashmiris deserve. It’s only that
United Nations, if sets up its agenda meaningful,
can contribute to resolve this deep rooted conflict
due to its status and repute as an international
organisation. South Asia awaits the time when
world powers necessitate their involvement in
resolution of Kashmir conflict. If not today, may be
tomorrow, Kashmiris will rise again, shine brighter
with the best solution possible to make their dreams
come true.
26 Green Book 2017
PAKISTAN ARMY
NOTES
1. Assistant Professor, Department of Peace and Conflict Studies, National
Defence University, Islamabad - Pakistan
2. Thanatos is referred as death instinct by Sigmund Freud which refers to
the desire for aggression as an innate human instinct. It culminates into
various negative patterns of human behavior such as killing, harming the
other, opting for war, attack or aggression. Sigmund Freud, Why War, http://
faculty.washington.edu/caporaso/ courses/203/readings/freud_Why_War.pdf.
Accessed on 2 April 2017
3. Kashmir – The History, http://www.pakun.org/kashmir/history.php. Accessed
on 2 April 2017.
4. Conflict Analysis Tools, http://www.css.ethz.ch/content/dam/ethz/special-
interest/gess/cis/center-for-securities-studies/pdfs/Conflict-Analysis-Tools.pdf.
Accessed 2 April 2017
5.
6.
Ibid
Ibid. Accessed 2 April 2017
7. “Kashmir: Learning from the Past”, ICGAsiaReport, No.70, 4 December 2003,
p.1.
8. Wajahat Habibullah, “The Political Economy of Kashmir Conflict:
Opportunities for Economic Peacebuilding and for US. Policy”, USIP Special
Report , No.121, June 2004, p.5
9. Arjun Makhijani, “Short History of Kashmir Dispute”, Institute for Energy and
Environmental Research, http://ieer.org/resource/south-asia/short-history-of-
kashmir-dispute/. Accessed on 4 April 2017.
10. India: Jammu and Kashmir: Half a century of Conflict
at http://www.conflictprevention.net/page.php?id=40&
formid=73&action=show&surveyid=17
11. A Brief History of the Kashmir Conflict, The Telegraph, 24 September 2001,
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/1399992/A-brief-history-of-the-Kashmir-
12.
conflict.html. Accessed on 4 April 2017
Lubna Saif, “Kashmir and 3 June Plan”, Pakistan Vision Vol. 14 No. 1, p. 106,
http://pu.edu.pk/ images/journal/studies/PDF-FILES/Artical-6_Vol_14_No1.
pdf . Accessed on 4 April 2017
13. Ibid . Accessed on 4 April 2017
14. Kashmir: Conflict Profile, Insight on Conflict, https://www.insightonconflict.
org/conflicts/kashmir/conflict-profile/. Accessed on 4 April 2017.
15. Behind the Kashmir Conflict: Abuses by Indian Security Forces and Militant
Groups continue, Human Rights Watch, https://www.hrw.org/reports/1999/
kashmir/back.htm. Accessed on 15 April 2017.
16. Pierre Tristam, “Kashmir: History and Background”, Thought Co, https://
www.thoughtco.com/kashmir-history-and-background-2353435. Accessed on
4 April 2017.
17. Meredith Weiss, “The Jammu and Kashmir Conflict”, 25 June 2002, p.3 at
http://www.yale.edu/ macmillan/globalization/kashmir.pdf
18. Behind the Kashmir Conflict: Abuses by Indian Security Forces and Militant
Groups continue, Human Rights Watch, https://www.hrw.org/reports/1999/
kashmir/back.htm. Accessed on 15 April 2017.
19. http://www.un.org/en/ga/search/view_doc.asp?symbol=S/RES/47(1948),
Accessed on 15 April 2017.
20. Michael Brecher, “Kashmir: A Case Study in United Nations Mediation”,
Pacific Affairs, Vol. 26, No. 3 (Sep., 1953), p. 195http://www.jstor.org/
stable/2753284, Accessed on 17 April 2017
21. Pervez Iqbal Cheema, “A Solution for Kashmir Dispute?” Regional Studies,
Autumn, 1998, p.5.
22. Ipsita Chakravarty, “The UN in Kashmir: A potted history of resolutions that
led nowhere”, Scroll.in, 26 September 2016, https://scroll.in/article/817144/
the-un-in-kashmir-a-potted-history-of-resolutions-that-led-nowhere. Accessed
on 16 April 2017.
23. United Nations Archives, https://search.archives.un.org/united-nations-
24.
commission-for-india-and-pakistan-uncip-1948-1950. Access on 16 April 2017
Kashmir: Nuclear Flashpoint, http://www.kashmirlibrary.org/kashmir_
timeline/kashmir_chapters/1948-1954.shtml. Accessed on 16 April 2017
25. Karachi Agreement, https://gbvoice.files.wordpress.com/2016/08/karachi-
agreement.pdf. Accessed on 16 April 2017.
26. Basic information, facts and figures were collected from http://www.pkops.
net/ops/unmogip.htm
27. India – Pakistan Background, http://www.un.org/en/peacekeeping/missions/
past/unipombackgr.html. Accessed on 16 April 2017
28. Ibid.
29.
30.
Ibid.
Farzana Shakoor, “UN and Kashmir”, Pakistan Horizon, Vol. 51, No. 2 (April
1998), pp. 66. http://www.jstor.org/stable/pdf/41394458.pdfhttp://www.jstor.
org/stable/pdf/41394458.pdf. Accessed on 18 April 2017
31. Ibid. Accessed on 18 April 2017
32.
33.
For details see http://www.pkops.net/ops/unmogip.htm
Ibid
34. Ipsita Chakravarty, “The UN in Kashmir: A potted history of resolutions that
led nowhere”, Ibid. Accessed on 16 April 2017
35. For details see http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,901761,00.
html
36. http://www.un.org/en/sectio ns/un-charter/chapter-vi/. Accessed on 20 May
2017
Green Book 2017 27

PAKISTAN ARMY
Abstract: Deradicalisation is a process of
changing particular mind set, ideology or
a belief system, which rejects the extremist
ideology and modify the individual’s
behaviour. Whereas, rehabilitation refers
to a process whereby ex-combatants are
prepared to adjust to the civilian life.
However, the term reintegration is a
broad one, which is often associated with
rehabilitation. In the context of national
and global security, it refers to the process
by which government plan and orchestrates
efforts to neutralise insurgents and
gradually implement a series of efforts and
programmes to assist them in their transition
from insurgency to civilian life while
minimising recidivism. As we follow the
history, extremist tendencies is an ongoing
DERADICALISATION,
phenomenon however, in the recent past,
the incident of 9/11 made the world realise
that appropriate steps are required to bring
back such extremist elements into social
mainstream. Accordingly, many countries
REHABILITATION AND
including Saudi Arabia, Burundi, Yemen and
Sri Lanka introduced rehabilitation process
for those prisoners who were found involved
in terrorist activities, which met with mixed
results. The United Nations’ Programme
REINTEGRATION OF
of Action (PoA) is a global attempt in
addressing the former combatants. The
causes leading to extremism are numerous
but still vary from country to country and
region to region. Pakistan had launched
EXTREMISTS
an impressive rehabilitation programme in
Swat region of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa after
successful military operation. So far, around
11,100 detainees have been reintegrated into
the society through the deradicalisation
GLOBAL AND NATIONAL IMPERATIVES programmes. Nevertheless, Pakistan is
confronted with host of challenges, which
are much more serious in scope and
intensity vis-à-vis Saudi Arabia and other
countries. The worrisome fact is that if
essential steps are not taken now, the society
as a whole is likely to drift into the grip of
extremism, the first step leading towards
terrorism. Pakistan needs a comprehensive
‘counter radicalisation’ strategy which
could disengage and de-radicalise the
society along with strong ‘rehabilitation and
reintegration’ strategy.
Brigadier Muhammad Khurshid Khan (Retired), currently serving as
Key words: Terrorism, Rehabilitation,
principal Shaheed Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto Cadet College (Palandri), has
written extensively on the issues of national interests Reintegration, International Initiative,
Ms Asma Bilal is lecturer in department of International Relations at Radicalisation, Disarmament
National Defence University, Islamabad
28 Green Book 2017
T
PAKISTAN ARMY
he deradicalisation, reintegration and
rehabilitation of detained militants
is one of the pre-requisites for post-
conflict stability and an integral
part of the preventive strategy. As
explained in this paper, the examples
of reintegration in Saudi Arabia, Burundi, and
Yemen have provided the affected stakeholders
with example of both successes and failure in
the effort to transform extremists and militants
into productive class of civilians. While the said
programme undertaken by Saudi Arabia appeared
to have achieved the objectives however, the
deradicalisation, reintegration and rehabilitation
programmes launched by Burundi and Yemen
remind the counter-insurgency observers and
stakeholders, the challenges and loopholes of the
reintegration process because it failed to achieve
the desired objectives .1
Nevertheless, the nature of the problems
varies from country to country and region to region.
Similarly, the scope and intensity of the issue also
dictates whether a state is capable of handling the
issue unilaterally without external support. The
United Nations’ Programme of Action (PoA) is an
international initiative in addressing the former
combatants. With a high level of commitment
and dedication, the UN-PoA focuses on effective
Disarmament, Demobilisation and Reintegration
(DDR) to produce reasonably good results, provided
it is duly supported by the world community in
terms of appropriate funding.2 However, UN-PoA’s
scope is too narrow and it has nothing to do with
the tormented societies, which are heading towards
extremism/fundamentalism, the first phase leading
to terrorism. The causes leading to extremism are
numerous but still vary from case to case.
Unfortunately, Pakistan is one of the
countries, which are victims of the menace
of extremism because of multiple reasons.
Although, Pakistan has done a great job in
rehabilitating/reintegrating the extremists’
after a successful operation in Swat and FATA,
however, its problem is quite critical which
needs a comprehensive ‘counter radicalisation’
strategy along with ‘rehabilitation and
reintegration’ strategy.
As pointed out earlier on, Pakistan
has successfully carried out rehabilitation and
reintegration process in Swat and elsewhere in
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK). In this process,
Pakistan Army was in lead role, duly supported
by KPK government as well as non-governmental
organizations (NGOs). However, these efforts are
Green Book 2017 29
 PAKISTAN ARMY
still not adequate as rehabilitation and reintegration
process contains inherent limitations. To overcome
the limitation, medium to long-term investment is
needed at the national and global level if we wish
that militants / extremists should not drift back into
their old practices.
Extremism, particularly religious
extremism, has emerged as a global phenomenon.
There is a dire need for a counter radicalisation
strategy and rehabilitation programmes at
international level to assist the countries facing
extremism and terrorism. “The disengagement
strategy should incorporate incentives, re-
education, and rehabilitation. As an essential
element in the fight against extremism, detainee
and inmate rehabilitation is the reverse of
terrorist indoctrination”.3 De-radicalisation
initiatives can proactively help to counter the
contemporary wave of extremism but the remedy
lies in pre-emptive rather than reactive approach.
In this backdrop, this brief paper
focuses on Pakistan’s initiatives to deradicalise,
rehabilitate and reintegrate the extremists into
mainstream, especially after Swat operation,
while concentrating on following factors: one,
understanding deradicalisation, rehabilitation
and reintegration process, two; international
initiatives to support the process, three; models of
deradicalisation, rehabilitations and reintegration.
Fourth, Pakistan’s challenges and initiatives and
finally the way forward.
Understanding Deradicalisation, Rehabilitation
and Reintegration
Deradicalisation is a gradual process, which changes
the rigid extremist belief system and concludes that
violence is not justified in any sense to enforce
30 Green Book 2017
ideology. Deradicalisation refers “to programmes
that are generally directed against individuals who
have become radical with the aim of re-integrating
them into society or at least dissuading them from
violence.”4 As a process, it is both cognitive and
behavioral and such transformation is only possible
by providing an appropriate environment. It is a
method through which radicalisation is reversed in
a radical individual to the point that he no longer
remains a threat to the society. This is different
from ‘counter-radicalisaton’ as the latter refers
broadly “to policies and programmes that attempt
to dissuade individuals at risk of radicalisation—
usually young people—from becoming radicalised
or ‘crossing the line and becoming terrorists’.5
Hence, it’s a preemptive strategy adopted by the
states.
The rehabilitation refers “as a process
whereby ex-combatants are prepared to adjust to the
civilian life before they are reintegrated into their
communities”.6 Rehabilitation programmes are
mostly run in well-equipped facilities for the period
of three to six months under proper supervision of
staff. In these rehabilitation centres, ex-combatants
receive psychosocial counseling. Thus, it helps
affected people in returning towards normal life by
providing them education, training and therapy.
The former militants and terrorists who are inclined
towards extremism need to be facilitated so that
they are brought back in the mainstream of society.7
If a terrorist is released before undergoing
the process of rehabilitation, there are ample
chances of him becoming a hardcore extremist
who is more dangerous for the community after
his return. With the same mindset, he is likely to
contaminate others with his ideology and recruit
them to advance the notorious causes. Particularly
for the religiously motivated terrorist detainees,
the ideological debate or religious counselling
sessions are extremely important component of the
rehabilitation process.
Rehabilitation requires engaging
the individual on all its facets. A successful
rehabilitation programme must recognise all
modes of rehabilitation. Within each mode
of rehabilitation, there are various modules.
“The four principle modes of rehabilitation
are religious rehabilitation, psychological
rehabilitation, social rehabilitation and
vocational rehabilitation”.8 While all aspects are
important but the ‘vocational rehabilitation’ is most
relevant as it is the last stage that helps individual
to reintegrate into society as a productive civilian.
The term reintegration is a broad one,
which is often associated with rehabilitation. In
the context of national and global security, “it
refers to the process by which government plan
and orchestrates efforts to neutralise insurgents
and gradually implement a series of efforts and
programmes to assist them in their transition
from insurgency to civilian life while minimising
recidivism”.9
Rehabilitation and reintegration serve as
a mean towards de-radicalisation of the societies.
However, this should not be a preferred option.
Efforts should be made to ensure that the fence
sitters and those inclined to join the radical groups
in immediate future due to multiple social and
psychological reasons should be convinced to
PAKISTAN ARMY
revert into the mainstream society. They should be
given opportunities for playing greater constructive
role in the society. That will be possible only; if we
have a long-term plan to reform the society covering
all aspects including economic, social, cultural
and ideological justice.10 Resource constraints
especially in terrorism-ridden states like Pakistan
and Afghanistan are likely to be a serious challenge,
particularly in case international community fails
to fulfil its earlier commitments. Thus, this imply
the use of strong counter-radicalisation strategy by
the state to neutralise the ideological threats.
International Initiatives
Rehabilitation is a complex process, which
needs holistic approach. The idea of religious
rehabilitation was first used by Egypt in the 1990s.
Scholars from Al-Azhar, Islamic counsellors along
with the eminent leadership of Al Gama al Islamiyah
al Masri (Islamic Group of Egypt) put a rigorous
effort to deradicalise detainees and inmates to
abandon violence and build peace.11 Earlier
programmes on rehabilitation were designed in
Malaysia and Singapore to rehabilitate communist
terrorist in the 1960s and 1970s, however they
lacked comprehensive mechanism. There was no
serious attempt by international community to
draw rehabilitation and reintegration programme
until September 11 attack. After realising the scale
of the threat following the Al Qaeda attacks on
the US mainland, Singapore, Saudi Arabia, Iraq,
Uzbekistan, Indonesia, and Malaysia developed
Green Book 2017 31
 PAKISTAN ARMY
national rehabilitation programmes.12 Since
September 11, deradicalisation, rehabilitation and
reintegration programmes have been considered as
an important pillar in counterterrorism strategies.
It has provided a considerable degree of success in
few countries.13
Since the 1990s, “disarmament,
demobilisation, and reintegration (DDR) has been
considered a crucial phase in the transition from
conflict to peace”.14 An effective implementation
of DDR programmes provides opportunity to the
former extremists’ to successfully reintegrate in
society and adopt respectful professions.15 The
World Bank has made a multilateral effort to
coordinate DDR programme throughout the Great
Lakes region of Africa. “These programmes aimed
to rehabilitate more than 350,000 ex-combatants
in nine countries”.16 After attack on Afghanistan
in 2001, high-profile DDR programmes have
been established in Afghanistan. “The donor
governments, such as Japan, helped to pay the $100
million tab for disarming approximately 63,000
former combatants, decommissioning 250 former
militias units, and providing reintegration packages
to 53,000 ex-combatants.”17
Another international initiative was a
conference on ‘Rehabilitation and Reintegration
of Violent Extremist Offenders: Good Practices &
Lessons Learned‘ hosted by the United National
Interregional Crime and Justice Research Institute
(UNICRI) and the International Centre for Counter
Terrorism (ICCT) on 6-9 December, 2011 at Hague.
After that, many positive developments have taken
place. In May 2012, Global Counter terrorism Forum
(GCTF), convened to discuss the ICCT / UNICRI
good practices document that was produced after
the Hague meeting. This document was further
transformed into as the ‘Rome Memorandum’
and adopted at the GCTF Ministerial-level plenary
session in Turkey on 7-8 June.18 The good practices
outlined in the Rome Memorandum are intended
to inform and guide countries in designing their
indigenous rehabilitation programmes.
Models of Deradicalisation, Rehabilitations and
Reintegration
As mentioned earlier on, rehabilitation programmes
for detainees and reintegration are usually part
of a larger de-radicalisation strategy. Depending
Since September 11, deradicalisation, rehabilitation and reintegration programmes
have been considered as an important pillar in counter terrorism strategies. It has
provided a considerable degree of success in few countries.12
32 Green Book 2017
PAKISTAN ARMY
upon the prevailing political, social, cultural and biased interpretation of Islam.26 structure, then Yemeni President Ali Abdullah
ideological environment, a number of countries The financial support provided by the Saleh summoned five senior clerics who formed
have approached the problem from different angle, Saudi government to the families of detainees the nucleus of this initiating endeavour”.29 “The
applying the best possible strategies. However, in also provided support to the government to curb Committee expanded to 24 members, under the
broader sense, there are four major approaches recidivism. However, the periodic rates of recidivism purview of four relevant ministries”.30 However,
in practice to deradicalise and rehabilitate occurred after the year 2009 raised a question mark after the impending pressure from opposition
individuals and vulnerable communities.19 The on the constant claim of success that the Saudi political parties the programme was halted in
case studies of the following countries are briefly government had been pledging. However, relatively 2005.31 Therefore, because of lack of support from
explained:- speaking, the Saudi Arabia’s reintegration strategy all stakeholders this programme could not develop
had some reasons to be a considerable success. as per its initial schedule.
Saudi Arabian Model As far as programme structure is concerned,
After the violent extremist outburst in 2003, Kingdom The Saudi example demonstrate that it was based on “the art of dialogue, topics for
of Saudi Arabia designed a comprehensive counter when national economic resources are dialogue, and guidance on sharing of information
terrorism strategy based on an unconventional appropriately employed in a well-organised to the relevant authorities.”32 The strength of the
soft scheme.20 It deals with countering ideological manner and a reasonable incentive is given programme lies in the firm conviction of committee
and intellectual rationalisation for extremism. The to the militants, they are expected to give up of the dialogue programme and the weakness was
main objective of strategy was “to engage and fight armed resistance.27 internal pressure from opposition political parties.33
ideology, which corrupted interpretations of Islam In 2009, Al-Qaeda elements grew stronger
that deviated from the official Saudi interpretation Yemeni Model in the country. Yemen eventually drifted into civil
of Islam”.21 There was a realisation on part of Saudi The deradicalisation, rehabilitation and war and the extremist elements grew stronger in
government that traditional method of coercion and reintegration programme by Yemen was initiated the country, which also forced Saleh to hand over
security is not enough to combat violent extremism. in September 2002. “A Yemeni Committee for power to vice president Abd Rabbuh Mansur Hadi.
The soft strategy adopted by the Saudi Dialogue was formed under the leadership of Judge However, since 2015 the situation in Yemen totally
Kingdom was composed of “three-pronged strategy Hamoud al-Hitar”.28 “In terms of its organisational changed which also brought regional actors in the
aimed at prevention, rehabilitation and post-release
care of detainees - known as PRAC Strategy”.
The programme was totally in hands of Saudi
government, the interior ministry was in charge
of designing and providing financial support to
the programme.22 The interior ministry is also
overseeing programmes particularly designed for
Guantanamo returnees and other terrorist - minded
extremist in general.23
In the case of Saudi Arabia, the
reintegration process was considered a success
for several reasons. The most important argument
is that the strategy designed to deal with the
most dangerous terrorists was well planned and
executed meticulously. It was Saudi’s exclusive
plan without involving foreign donors. It was
made possible because Saudi Arabia had sufficient
resources to fund this programme without the
involvement of the foreign stakeholders.24 The
government tactically used religious scholars, well-
trained Saudi psychologists and foreign experts to
build deradicalisation strategy.25 Similarly, well-
equipped, technologically advanced rehabilitation
centres were built and the lectures on religion were
regularly delivered in these centres to counter the
COAS General Qamar Javed Bajwa interacts with local
tribal Elders during visit to Kurram Agency on 30th June
2017
Green Book 2017 33
 PAKISTAN ARMY
civil war. Today, Yemen is considered as unstable
volatile state with multiple actors destabilising
Yemen and fighting for power, which includes Al-
Qaeda and Islamic State as well. Yemini approach
was similar to that of Saudi Arabian; however,
the difference lies in the internal political
support and material resources. Therefore,
Yemen drifted further towards civil war.
Burundian Model
The Disarmament, Demobilisation, and
Reintegration (DDR) programme in Burundi was
initiated in December 2004. It was also developed
by the governmental administrative body – National
Commission for Disarmament, Demobilisation
and Reintegration (NCDDR). “In terms of its
organisational structure, the NCDDR was supported
by an Executive Secretariat (ES) that was responsible
for taking care of the technical sides of planning,
34 Green Book 2017
implementation and supervision of the overall
programme and ensuring proper coordination with
external resources and programme partners”.34
There were also Provisional Programme Offices
(PPOs) working in selective locations of the country
with the same functions of Executive Secretariat.
More than 28,000 participants have been
successfully rehabilitated and reintegrated into the
society through DDR programme. Burundian DDR
programme is more focused on social and economic
reintegration. Education, awareness and financial
support remain the priority for DDR officials.
International donor organisation and few countries
also played an important role in financially
facilitating programme such as Germany, United
Nations Operation in Burundi (ONUB) and the
World Bank.35
However, the Burundian model failed
to yield complete success as the country was
extremely poor and DDR programme could
not manage to get enough financial support.36
Moreover, due to lack of proper planning,
coordination and implementation the aid by
international donors went into the hands of corrupt
elements.
Sri Lankan Model
In mid-2009, when the insurgency led Liberation
Tigers of Tamil Eelam was at the cessation, the
Sri Lankan government established the Bureau of
Commissioner General of Rehabilitation (BCGR). It
was a state initiative under the purview of Ministry
of Defence with in the Ministry of Justice. It was
latter shifted to the Ministry of Rehabilitation and
Prison Reform.
The rehabilitation programme was
designed to accomplish number of tasks, including:
safeguarding the rights of rehabilitees, victims, the
community and the state; contributing towards
sustainable peace, reconciliation, psychological,
economic and social cohesion; and increasing
the employability of the rehabilitees and creating
opportunities for economic revitalisation. The
mission and vision statements on the rehabilitation
programme are also revealing. The mission of
the programme is to “disengage, deradicalise,
rehabilitate and reintegrate,” what are called
“misguided” and “radicalised” individuals.
The corresponding vision for the rehabilitation
programme was to achieve long term peace and
stability through the transformation of both adult
and child ex-combatants in Sri Lanka through
therapies aimed to enhance their self-esteem,
knowledge, employability and participation in
mainstream family and community life.37
Participants of the rehabilitation
programme were surrenders and amongst those
who were classified by the Terrorism Investigation
Division as a political cadre, supporters, and
those who had provided labour or minion work
for the LTTE. They were further classified as the
low, medium and high risk for the purpose of
rehabilitation. Leaders, strict followers and other
LTTE who were involved in violent activities were
sent to other detention centres.
Approximately 11,664 individuals
surrendered near the end of the conflict with the
LTTE, including around 2,033 women and 9,037
men. This rehabilitation recruitment process also
included approximately 594 children involved with
the LTTE.38
Sri Lankan Ministry of Defence authorised
“Protective Accommodation and Rehabilitation
PAKISTAN ARMY
Centres” (PARC) to manage the rehabilitation
programme with the administrative staff consisting
of around 254 personnel from the Army Cadet
Corps, including professional educators and school
teachers along with those trained in psychological
counselling. Several international organisations,
including the International Organisation for
Migration (IOM), assisted in the administration the
rehabilitation programme through a “Disarmament,
Demobilisation and Reintegration” programme.39
The rehabilitation programme identified
six key areas such as spiritual and religious
rehabilitation; vocational training;
psychological and creative therapies; sports
and extracurricular activities; social and
cultural rehabilitation; and education.40
Sri Lanka also executed a number of initiatives
to facilitate reintegration process. Rehabilitees
were offered three-month reinsertion packages
to address their initial needs. Specifically,
employment was offered in the Civil Defence Force
and the Navy Coastguard in addition to schemes for
self-employment through micro-financing options.
Of the near 12,000 individuals that surrendered or
were selected for rehabilitation, only 374 remain
in the programme, including eighteen female
surrenderers. The remaining participants were
reintegrated into society and 194 individuals
entered legal proceedings.41
The Sri Lankan Model is one of the
successful model of deradicalisation, rehabilitation
and reintegration with the minimum cases of
recidivism. One of the important factor is that
the rehabilitation process started after the end of
liberation movement of LTTE. Secondly, it was
an institutional initiative. A legal framework was
adopted by the Sri Lankan government. The financial
support was also provided to the rehabilitation
centre along with the support of international NGOs.
The participants were also reintegrated into society
and government took special care in providing
employment opportunities. The psychological
factor is also important, as the participants were
not treated as criminals or surrenderers.
Pakistan’s Challenges & Initiatives
Pakistan’s Challenges
Pakistan is confronted with host of challenges,
which are much more serious in scope and intensity
vis-à-vis Saudi Arabia and other countries. Pakistan
may have less threats from those fundamentalists /
terrorists and radical elements who are either behind
Green Book 2017 35
 PAKISTAN ARMY
the bar or likely to be released. The worrisome fact
is that if essential steps are not taken now, the
society as a whole is likely to drift into the grip of
extremism, the first step leading towards terrorism.
We have already seen the unemployed youth falling
into wrong hands.
Unfortunately, Pakistan’s sacrifices in War
against Terrorism have not been acknowledged.
Instead of appreciating the people of Pakistan for
their sacrifices, the West, led by the US, continues
to blame Pakistan for their failure in Afghanistan.
Above all, the Western media is persistently
involved in encouraging those who show
disrespect to Islam applying various means.
There is no appropriate response to the
Western propaganda against Islam,
w h i c h
causes
frustration
in Muslim
society. All these developments
do have a psychological impact on the
minds of common people in Pakistan.
Unemployment at the domestic level and
injustices at the global level are the core causes
that attract the youth towards extremism and
radicalism. The current and emerging insecurities
in Pakistan warrant a comprehensive approach
to tackle with the issue. Despite its all sincerity,
Pakistan is unlikely to meet this challenge single
handedly. The problem requires colossal economic
resources to turn the clock round by introducing
social and education reforms that will help curbing
radicalisation tendencies.
As pointed out earlier on, Pakistan has
limited capacity to undertake this gigantic task
single handedly. The international community
36 Green Book 2017
rehabilitation process.42
As pointed out earlier on, in
recent past, Pakistan Army had launched
an impressive rehabilitation programme
in Swat region of KPK after a successful
military operation against extremists / militants
there. There are six main deradicalisation
programmes throughout the country: Sabaoon
centre for Rehabilitation, Mishal, Sparlay, Rastoon,
Pythom and Heila. However, Sabaoon is the only
civilian run programme established by Pakistan
Army in September 2009 and currently in-charge of
Lahore based organisation. During the operation,
over two million people were displaced, who were
brought back and reintegrated successfully within
six to eight months.
These de-radicalisation programmes have
provided a nucleus and a beacon for subsequent
larger or expanded de-radicalisation efforts. Thus,
so far, “11,100 detainees have been reintegrated
into the society through the de-radicalisation
programme”.43 “The initiative to rehabilitate
detainees in Pakistan was first taken in September
2009, with an initial cost of Rs 4.4 million”.44 The
programme has three main components:
• Project Sabaoon- ‘The first ray of the rising sun’,
which focuses on juveniles (focuses on young
generation between 12-18), Rastoon: Juveniles/
youth between 19-25
needs to come forward and help Pakistan to
overcome this challenge. Small and disjointed
efforts by the international community have
not produced the desired results in the past. It
is believed that economic challenges cannot be
met through aid and donations. For this purpose,
international community should help by investing
in Pakistan as well as offering trade opportunities.
It is opined that by generating extensive
economic activities, 70 per cent of the problems
are likely to be addressed.
Pakistan’s Initiatives
Over the past 11 years, Pakistan is at war with
terrorists and other militant groups supported
by various actors from within and from across
the borders. It has used both hard as well as soft
powers. Since 2004, Pakistan Army launched
many operations against the militant groups and
apprehended many of them. Leaving aside the
hardcore militants who are being tried in court of
justice, others have been released after necessary
PAKISTAN ARMY
• Project Mishal that concentrates on adult
detainees.
• Project Sparlay for family members of detained
persons.
Project-Sabaoon
Saboon is the only civilian run programme
established by Pakistan Army in September 2009
and currently under Hum Pakistani Foundation
(HPF). However, provision of security is still in
hands of Pakistan Army Unit at the Malakand Fort.
The United Nations’ Children’s Fund (UNICEF)
also funds the Sabaoon facility and its goal is to
rehabilitate, de-radicalise and reintegrate underage
militants affiliated with the Taliban in Swat.
The programme has been the initiative
of Pakistan Army, but to date no government
department has offered support or taken ownership
of this, even as a national initiative. All inductees
are provided by the Army. That is, individuals who
were either a) apprehended during the counter
insurgency operation, or b) targeted action against
the militants, or c) were surrendered by their
families or communities.
An individual under 18 years of age, once
apprehended by the Armed Forces is recommended
for induction at Sabaoon. The Mental Health Team
or MHT (consisting of psychologists and social
workers) conducts an initial interview to assess if
As part of Rehabilitation Works,
Major Construction Projects undertaken in
Miranshah, NWA
Green Book 2017 37
 PAKISTAN ARMY
the apprehended individual meets the criteria for
induction (under the age of 18 years & involvement
in militancy).
According to the ‘un published report’ by Dr
Fariha Paracha, they are classified further into
following four groups ranging from ‘religiously
inclined’ to ‘extremist’, to ‘active involvement
in sabotage / law breaking’ to finally the
‘planners and terrorists’.
Once inducted, the individual undergoes
the deradicalisation and rehabilitation procedures
(including assessments & intervention). The
decision for reintegration requires a detailed
assessment of the Individual Progress, Familial
Acceptance and Support, and Community Variables.
When deemed fit for reintegration to society, the
MHT shortlists individuals for recommendation
to the Armed Forces, who then inform the Local
Army Units overseeing the concerned inductees’
community, for monitoring and attendance
purposes.
The process of rehabilitation is multi-
faceted. The module at Saboon gives mainstream
education, psychosocial intervention, corrective
religious education, vocational skills training,
and recreational/extracurricular activities.
Pakistan Army inducts youth to the rehabilitation
and reintegration schools where Social Welfare
Academics and Training is given to them. Sabaoon
is providing them the facility in their special
schools. Here, students are undergoing the de-
radicalisation process. They receive special
counselling along with normal education.45 It is
important to consider that it is the only project for
children and adolescents that is structured to the
needs for both deradicalisation and also fulfil the
deficiencies that these children had faced prior to
their joining militancy or pre-morbid stage.
To reintegrate them as a productive unit
in society, they are provided with the vocational
training to enable them in adjusting in society. For
good mental health, they are equally provided with
the recreational activity. In this whole process, the
individual’s psychology, his family background
and the community, from where he belongs, is
considered important, as they are often reasons for
the extremist attitude of an individual.
Reintegration is most important as
students are gradually exposed to society i.e.
community visits and student’s home visits. The
social workers at Sabaoon and the Monitoring Cell
assess the family situation and dynamics at home
38 Green Book 2017
in the initial community visits to have a general
idea of the challenges for them post reintegration.
The information is sought from the neighbors, peer
group in the community, peer group at school/
college, school/ college administration including
the teachers, children’s employers, local jirga and
community elders. The social workers counsel
the children prior to as well as after reintegration
depending on what kind of problems children
report.
Sabaoon is also working on buttressing secondary
education and reducing dropout rates. It has
tackled this by selecting five schools in the hard hit
areas during the insurgency and counter insurgency
operations. Sabaoon has also initiated teacher-
training workshops, stocking books in the libraries,
reconstruction of destroyed school buildings.46
Project-Mishal
The Mishal Rehabilitation Centre caters for the
adult ex-combatants. “It aims at providing an
environment conducive for restoring the self-respect
for selected individuals to de-radicalise and remove
their psychological burden caused by ideological
exploitation and/or coercion to make them and
their families useful citizens of the society”.47 After
a screening process, low-cadre militants were
identified, who did not have a leadership role and
were not directly involved in killings or sabotage
activities.
As part of Mishal School, “the Pakistani
Army runs two ‘de-radicalisation centres’, one is
located in Paithom in upper Swat Valley and the
other in Barikot in lower Swat; 850 former militants
Project Sabaoon, undertaken by Pakistan Army as part of
and Taliban soldiers have been released back
into society after successfully completing courses
and passing psychological exam from licensed
counsellors”.48 Staff consists of trainers, religious
and vocational teachers, psychiatrists and social
work is efficiently fulfilling their responsibilities in
these centres.
For completely integrating the locals
of affected areas into the society, two technical
institutes have also been established to impart
technical skills to detainees with the view to
integrate them into nation building and reduced
unemployment. These technical institutes are:
• Khyber Institute of Technical Education (KITE),
Peshawar.
• Waziristan Institute of Technical Education
(WITE), South Waziristan.
Pakistan’s modest effort, is a beginning. These
initiatives are in their initial phase. There is room
to learn from best practices and make adjustments,
where needed, to improve their chances of success.
The stakeholders are also in touch with other think
tanks and scholars for their advisory role.
Way Forward
• In case of Pakistan, there is absence of
legal framework, which could define the
parameters, administration responsibility
and scope of deradicalisation, rehabilitation
and reintegration centre. Anti-terrorism Acts
have been introduced to the national policies,
but more concrete anti-terrorism and counter-
PAKISTAN ARMY
Deradicalisation programmes
terrorism policies and strategies are necessary
as well, as is the need to reinforce their
implementation.
• Federal and Provincial governments have
to take responsibility of deradicalisation,
rehabilitation and reintegration programme.
Governments must plan thoroughly and allocate
sufficient financial resources to address the
large numbers of ex-combatants who will need
immediate assistance. Particularly, in dealing
with post integration challenges.
• There is a need of cross sector collaboration
between all the stakeholders, relevant agencies
and institutions. Similar approach is needed
in collaboration with security agencies, civil
authorities and families of detainees.
• Detailed planning and implementation are
essential to the process of reintegration, and
that efforts be largely devoted to the use of
governmental soft power that address quality
of life and issues of the rehabilitating militants.
The government should also see to it that these
programmes adequately support correctional
staff, counsellors, and other transitional team
members so that they are properly equipped
and trained to help ex-combatants back into
society.
• Accordingly, transitional programme
counsellors should teach ex-combatants how to
begin a new life and should endow them with
essential life skills such as education, financial
management, developing livelihood.
Green Book 2017 39
 PAKISTAN ARMY
• In addition to these broad areas, transitional
programmes should also focus on daily
essentials. These include taking steps such
as helping former militants in obtaining
identification documents, social beneficiary
tokens, and vocational skill certificates, so that
they will have the confidence of furthering their
education and obtaining employment.
• Transitional programmes should similarly
focus on improving the quality of life for ex-
combatants, such as access to health facilities,
as well as other facilities that may promote
their literary, educational, economic, social,
and even their spiritual development. The
Saudi case makes it clear that when these steps
are taken, the results can be effective.
• Burundi and Yemen, on the other hand,
exemplify the potential consequences
when states fail to consider these steps.
Both countries had only limited resources;
beyond these limitations, however, it is clear
that poor implementation in both countries
was largely to blame for the failure of their
respective programmes. In short, embracing
a reintegration programme is not a guarantee
that reintegration will work; planning and
administration of programmes must be effective
in order for such efforts to be successful.
• A complete reintegration process can indeed
help former militants to develop stronger
bonds and ties to their communities, thereby
making it easier for them to reintegrate within
their societies. On the one hand, ex-combatants
face many economic, social, and emotional
challenges. It is, therefore, necessary for
reintegration programmes to include economic,
social, and emotional needs of a satisfactory
magnitude so that they can break the cycle of
recidivism.
• As pointed out above, conceptualising a
programme is not enough. Despite having
best theoretical strategy, and the best possible
efforts, the countries, like Pakistan, would still
require massive foreign support to implement
the agenda, which has global implications. The
efforts are required to address the issues that
are focused on society rather than individuals.
Therefore, international community should
be made to realise of its earlier commitments
that it made to bail out Pakistan economically.
Pakistan has suffered in pursuit of achieving
global peace by being part of global team
in war on terror, therefore, the world
community is morally obliged to come
40 Green Book 2017
forward and support Pakistan in its efforts
to develop a moderate society.
• Contrarily, Burundi and Yemen, exemplify
the potential consequences when states fail
to respond appropriately in implementing
such programmes, especially when more
than one stakeholder are involved. Therefore,
it is suggested that such programmes once
supported by the donor countries, a strategy
must also exist to ensure that resources are
spent on right cause under total scrutiny of an
Oversight Board.
• While Pakistan’s rehabilitation and
reintegration programme, is producing
results; however, emotions are more difficult
to deal with, particularly if the relatives of the
reintegrated individual are radicalised. This
is particularly relevant in view of the fact that
there is no soft counter terrorism narrative at a
national level, madrassa reforms, monitoring
of religious material and or dialogue with the
extremists in mosques on similar platforms.
• International media has an important role in
perception making. They can help creating
inter-faith harmony, which is vital in bridging
the gaps between various societies.
• Finally, in addition to the financial support,
the international community should also
be forthcoming in sharing their knowledge
and expertise with the effected countries like
Pakistan and Afghanistan. The work done by
the scholars and think tanks may be shared
with affected countries so that the same is
applied in formulating/improving the counter
radicalisation strategy.
Conclusion
A complete reintegration process can indeed help
former militants to develop stronger bonds and ties
to their communities, thereby making it easier for
them to reintegrate within their societies. On the one
hand, ex-combatants face many economic, social,
and emotional challenges upon their re entry into
society. They face obstacles such as finding lost family
members, land disputes in their ancestral territories,
safe and affordable housing, unmet educational and
employment needs, undiagnosed past memories, and
family reunification issues. It is, therefore, once again
re-emphasised that reintegration programmes must
take due care about the aspects like economic, social,
and emotional needs of the affected people so as to
break the cycle of recidivism.
While this is relevant to the countries, where the scope
of the issue is narrow and management of the problem
is comparatively easy to manage. However, the existing
model of rehabilitation and reintegration do not fit in the
society like Pakistan where the issue is different having
multiple challenges need to be tackled. We need to deal
with a society, which has shown strands of radicalism/
extremism because of growing injustices not only at
the individual levels but also at the state, regional and
NOTES
1. (This is the authors’ analysis of different programmes)
2. Matt Schroeder and Rachel Stohl, “Small Arms, Large Problem: International
Threat of Small Arms Proliferation and Misuse”, Arms Control Today, June
3.
2006.
Conference Report, “Tackling Extremism: De radicalization and
Disengagement”, Institute of Strategic Dialogue, Copenhagan, 8-9 May 2012.
4. United Nations Counter-Terrorism Implementation Task Force, First Report of
the Working Group on Radicalisation and Extremism that Lead to Terrorism:
Inventory of State Programmes, September 2008, 8, available at http://www.
un.org/en/terrorism/pdfs/radicalization.pdf
5. Ibid, 5
6. R Taouti-Cherif and A. Sewonet, Crossing the Border: the Demobilization and
Reintegration of Rawandan Boys and Girls Associated with Armed Groups in
7.
the Democratic Republic of Congo (Kigali: Save the Children UK, 2004), 12-13.
Kate Barelle, “Disengagement from Violent Extremism” (PhD Diss., Global
Terrorism Research Center and Politics Department, Monash University, 2009).
8. Rohan Gunaratna, “Terrorist Rehabilitation: A Global Imperative”, Journal of
Policing, Intelligence, and Counter Terrorism 6, no. 1 (2011).
9. R. Krech, The Reintegeration of Former Children Combatants: A Case Study of
NGO Programming in Sierra Leone (Toronto: Ontario Institute for Studies in
Education of the University of Toronto, 2003), 164.
10. Naureen Chowdhury Fink and Ellie Hearne, Beyond Terrorism: De-
radicalization and Disengagement from Violent Extremism (New York: IPI
11.
Publications, 2008), 3–13.
Katherine Seifert, “Can Jihadis Be Rehabilitated? Radical Islam”, Middle East
Quarterly (Spring 2010): 21-30.
12. David Ucko, “Militias, Tribes and Insurgents: The Challenge of Political
reintegration in Iraq”, Conflict Security and Development 8, no. 3 (2008):
341-373; and Ami Angell and Rohan Gunaratna, “The Future of Extremist
Rehabilitation Programs”, in Terrorist Rehabilitation: The US. Experience in
Iraq (CRC Press, 2011), 348-349.
13. Kees Kingma, “Post-war Demobilization and the Reintegeration of
Ex-Combatants into Civilian Life” (Paper presented at USAID Confernce
Promoting Democracy, Human Rights and Reintegeration in Post-Conflict
Socities, Bonn: Bonn International Center for Conversion (BICC), October
30-31, 1997).
14. John Horgan and Kurt Braddock, “Rehabilitating the Terrorists?: Challenges
in Assessing the Effectiveness of De-radicalization Programs”, Terrorism and
15.
Political Violence 22, no. 2 (2010), 267-291.
Matt Schroeder and Rachel Stohl, “Small Arms, Large Problem”.
16. Abraham Sewonet Abatneh, Disarmament, Demobilization, Rehabilitation
and Reintegration of Rawandan Child Soldiers (MSc diss., University of South
Africa, December 2006); and Matt Schroeder and Rachel Stohl, “Small Arms,
17.
Large Problem”.
Matt Schroeder and Rachel Stohl, “Small Arms, Large Problem”.
18. Global Counterterrorism Forum, “Rome Memorandum on Good
Practices for Rehabilitation and Reintegration of Violent Extremist
Offenders”, 20 June, 2012, www.thegctf.org/documents/10162/19594/
Rome+Memorandum+on+Good+Practices+for+Rehabilitati
on+and+Reintegration+of+Violent+Extremist+Offenders
19. Rohan Gunaratna, Jolene Jerard and Lawrence Rubin (ed.), Terrorist
Rehabilitation and Counter Radicalisation: New Approaches to Counter
Terrorism (New York: Routledge, 2011); and Amanada K. Johnston, “Assessing
the Effectiveness of Deradicalization Programs on Islamist Extremist”( MSc.
diss., Monterey C.A.: Naval Postgraduate School, December 2009).
20. Mohammed Hafez, “Radicalization in the Persian Gulf: Assessing the
Potential of Islamist Militancy in Saudi Arabia and Yemen,” Dynamics of
Asymmetric Conflict (2008), 7.
21. N. Iyer, K. Kshatriya, J. Lerman, and L. Weitzman, “Returning Home:
Resettlement and Reintegration of Detainees Released from the US. Naval
Base in Guantanamo Bay, Cuba”, International Human Rights Law Clinic and
Human Rights Centre, University of California, Berkeley, March 2009, 9–13
22. Christopher Boucek, “Extremist Re-education and Rehabilitation in Saudi
Arabia,” in Leaving Terrorism Behind, ed. Tore Bjorgo and John Horgan
(New York: Routledge, 2009), 217; Christopher Boucek, “Saudi Arabia’s
‘Soft’ Counterterrorism Strategy: Prevention, Rehabilitation, and Aftercare,”
Carnegie Papers, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, no. 97 (2008:
4.
23. Abdullah F. Ansary, “Combating Extremism: A Brief Overview of Saudi
Arabia’s Approach,” Middle East Policy Council 15, no. 2 (Summer 2008):
111–142.
24. Christopher Boucek, “Saudi Arabia’s ‘Soft’ Counterterrorism Strategy:
Prevention, Rehabilitation, and Aftercare,” Carnegie Papers, Carnegie
PAKISTAN ARMY
global levels. The impact of such injustices cut across
the borders. Therefore, the global efforts must focus
on curbing the growing tendencies of injustices so that
the state’s administrations are able to deal with such
inclinations on justification that no injustices are done
at any level, may it be ‘individual’, ‘state’ or ‘global’.
Endowment for International Peace, no. 97 (2008): 23; Rob Wagner,
“Rehabilitation and De-radicalization: Saudi Arabia’s Counterterrorism
Successes and Failures,” Peace and Conflict Monitor, University for Peace,
2010, http://www.monitor.upeace.org/innerpg.cfm?id_article=735.
25. Christopher Boucek, “The Saudi Process of Repatriating and Reintegrating
Guantanamo Returnees,” CTC Sentinel 1, no. 1 (2007), http://www.ctc.usma.
edu/posts/the-saudi-process-of-repatriating-and-reintegrating-guantanamo-
returnees
26. Christopher Boucek, “The Saudi Process of Repatriating and Reintegrating
27.
Guantanamo Returnees”, 11.
Leila Ezzarqui, “De-Radicalisation and Rehabilitation Program: A Case Study
of Saudi Arabia” (MA. diss., Washington D.C.: Georgetown University, April
23, 2010).
28. Christopher Boucek, Shazadi Beg and John Horgan, “Opening up the Jihadi
Debate: Yemen’s Committee for Dialogue,” in Leaving Terrorism Behind,
Individual and Collective Disengagement, ed. Tore Bjorgo and John Horgan
(New York: Routledge, 2009),184
29. Peter Willems, “Unusual Tactics,” Middle East (2004): 66.
30. Michael Taarnby, “Yemen’s Committee for Dialogue: Can Jihadists Return to
Society?”, Terrorism Monitor 3, no. 14 (2005), http://www.jamestown.org/
programs/gta/single/?tx_ttnews[tt
31. Embassy Of The Republic Of Yemen, Washington, DC, “Yemen Efforts in the
Fight Against Terrorism”, http://www.yemenembassy.org/3420413E-FAAB-
49EF-8397-973B68C4A71A/FinalDownload/DownloadId-DF9861660B03F7F2
A5EE2A30282FD9A7/3420413E-FAAB-49EF-8397-973B68C4A71A/wp-content/
uploads/2017/07/Yemen-Efforts-in-the-Fight-Against-Terrorism.pdf
32. James Brandon, “Koranic Duels Ease Terror,” Christian Science Monitor
(February 4, 2005), 1
33. Author Analysis
34. Jean Marie Gasana and Douma Pyt, “Reintegration in Burundi: Between
happy cows and lost investments,” Conflict Research Unit, Netherland
institute of International Relations, 2008, 35..
35. Carames A. and E. Sanz, Burundi: PNDDR, 2004–2008, “DDR 2009: Analysis of
Disarmament, Demobilization and Reintegration (DDR) Programs in the World
36.
during 2008”, Bellaterra: School for a Culture of Peace, 2009, 31–38.
Human Rights Watch, “Everyday Victims: Civilians in the Burundian War,”
December 2003, 9–15.
37. BUREAU OF THE COMMISSIONER GENERAL OF REHABILITATION, http://
bcgr.gov.lk/history.php [hereinafter BCGR].
38. Brig. H.A.N. Hapuarachchi, “IDPs, Resettlement, Rehabilitation and
Reintegration of Combatants”, BUS. TODAY, July 2011, available at http://
www.businesstoday.lk/article.php?article=3488
39. Iromi Dharmawardhane, “Sri Lanka’s Post-Conflict Strategy: Restorative
Justice for Rebels and Rebuilding of Conflict-affected Communities”,
Perspectives on Terrorism 7, No. 6, 27, 34 (2014) available at http://www.
terrorismanalysts.com/pt/index.php/pot/article/ view/310/html.
40. MINISTRY OF REHABILITATION & PRISON REFORMS, supra note 57, at 3.
41. Permanent Mission of Sri Lanka to the UN, Statement by H.E. Ravinatha
Aryasinha Ambassador and Permanent Representative of Sri Lanka at the
International Counter Terrorism Focal Points Conference on Addressing
Conditions Conducive to the Spread of Terrorism and Promoting Regional
Cooperation, 4 (June 13, 2013) available at http://www.un.org/en/terrorism/
ctitf/pdfs/ Statement%20from%20Mr.%20Aryasinha,%20Permanent %20
Representative,%20Sri%20Lanka.pdf.
42. Maj Gen Ghulam Qamar, “Pakistan’s Experience in Rehabilitation and
Reintegration”, Business Today, September 2012, http://www.businesstoday.
lk/article.php?article=7470
43. Muhammad Amir Rana, “Swat De-radicalization Model: Prospects for
Rehabilitating Militants”, Conflict and Peace Studies 4, no. 2 (April-June,
44.
2011): 4
Shehzad H. Qazi, “A War without Bombs: Civil Society Initiatives against
Radicalization in Pakistan”, Institute for Social Policy and Understanding,
7 (2013) available at http://www.ispu.org/pdfs/ISPU_Brief_Counter
Deradicalization_2_14.pdf.
45. Dr. Muhammad Farooq Khan, An Overview of Project ‘Saboon’, (Report on 1st
Strategic Workshop on Rehabilitation and Deradicalization of Militant and
Extremists, FATA Capacity Building Project, FATA Secretariat, May 2010).
46. Lectured delivered by Feriha N Peracha, “Socio-political Impact of WoT”,
National Defence University, Islamabad, October 17, 2012.
47.
48.
Rana, “Swat De-radicalization Model”, 5.
Ibid
Green Book 2017 41

PAKISTAN ARMY
Foreign Policy
Definition Formulation and
Implementation
Theory and Practice in Pakistan
Mr Najmuddin A. Shaikh is currently Head of
Global and Regional Studies Centre, a former
Ambassador and Foreign Secretary of Pakistan
Abstract: This presentation seeks to address the lacunae in the
understanding of what foreign policy is and how its primary purpose is
to preserve a country’s territorial integrity and sovereignty. It contains
various definitions of foreign policy and of “national interest” and
postulates that apart from the overriding need for protecting national
sovereignty and territorial integrity its role is to advance the goals set
by domestic policy bearing geography, domestic resource base etc. in
mind.
It uses concrete example from the history of Pakistan’s foreign
relations with the United States to draw conclusions that often relations
are based on a “contrived commonality of interests” and that two
countries entering into an alliance relationship may have different goals
in mind. When need arises foreign policy may require the creation of
mutual interest where none exists.
It seeks to recommend steps that need to be taken to formulate
coherent foreign policy with priority being given to eliminating terrorism
and extremism and allowing the Foreign Office to play the principal role
in recommending to the leadership and parliament the foreign policy
options drawing upon the resources of other departments including the
armed forces, the other ministries and the intelligence agencies.
It notes that a new multi polarity is coming into being and
while Pakistan is advantageously placed, it must contend with negative
perceptions that often become the basis for the policies of other
countries.
Key words: Domestic Policy, Capabilities, Intelligence agencies,
Democracy, International Agreements
42 Green Book 2017
A
s one watches the countless talk
shows that have become the main
source of information, for most
Pakistanis, we see a considerable
focus on foreign policy. We do not,
however, see or read much that is
genuinely informative about what foreign policy
is, what its determinants are, and what its purpose
is or should be. This essay will seek to address this
lacunae with the caveat that no presentation of
this nature can do full justice to what is a subject
of considerable complexity and the subject of
voluminous tomes by analysts and practitioners
around the world.
There are many definitions of foreign policy
and what it should seek to achieve. One says
“the goals the nation’s officials seek to attain
abroad, the values that give rise to those
objectives, and the means or instruments
used to pursue them.” 1
The Encyclopaedia Britannica in its 2009
edition defines it as “General objectives that
guide the activities and relationships of one
state in its interactions with other states. The
development of foreign policy is influenced
by domestic considerations, the policies or
behaviour of other states, or plans to advance
specific geopolitical designs. Leopold von Ranke
emphasised the primacy of geography and external
threats in shaping foreign policy, but later writers
emphasised domestic factors. Diplomacy is the
tool of foreign policy, and war, alliances, and
international trade may all be manifestations of
it”.
Another more succinct definition is “Foreign
policy is the key element in the process by
which a state translates its broadly conceived
goals and interests into concrete courses
of action to attain these objectives and
pressure its interests.”2
Yet another older but perhaps clearer
definition is from Hugh Gibson who says
“a well rounded, comprehensive plan,
based on knowledge and experience,
for conducting the business of
government with the rest of the world.
It is aimed at promoting and protecting
the interests of the nation. This calls for
a clear understanding of what, whose
interests are and how far we can help
to go with the means at our disposal.
Anything less than this falls short of
being a national foreign policy.”3
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In a more general survey of the available
literature it would appear; most analysts agree
that foreign policy is influenced by domestic
considerations, the policies or behaviour of other
states, or plans to advance specific geopolitical
designs. Some analysts emphasise the primacy of
geography and external threats in shaping foreign
policy, while others emphasise the domestic factor
as the determinant. All are agreed that the principle
goal is the protection and advancement of national
interest.
Cardinal Richelieu, credited with being
the “father of the modern nation-state, made
France the dominant power of Europe in the early
17th Century. He was, according to Kissinger, the
man who used foreign policy most effectively
to advance the interest of the French monarchy.
According to his study, Richelieu believed that the
first indispensable element of a successful foreign
policy is a long-term strategic concept based on a
careful analysis of all relevant factors. This vision
must be distilled by analysing and shaping an array
of ambiguous, often conflicting pressures, into a
coherent and purposeful direction. He (or she) must
know where this strategy is leading and why. And
lastly, he must act at the outer edge of the possible,
bridging the gap between his society’s experiences
and its aspirations. 4
Lord Palmerston, the British Prime Minister
in the 19th Century defined the basic principle
governing foreign policy as being “We have no
eternal allies, and we have no perpetual enemies.
Our interests are eternal and perpetual, and those
interests it is our duty to follow…And if I might be
allowed to express in one sentence the principle
which I think ought to guide an English Minister,
I would adopt the expression of Canning, and say
that with every British Minister the interests of
England ought to be the shibboleth of his policy.” 5
Asked to define these interests more specifically in
the form of an official “foreign policy,” Palmerston
said, “When people ask me … for what is called a
policy, the only answer is that we mean to do what
may seem to be best, upon each occasion as it
arises, making the Interests of Our Country one’s
guiding principle.”6
What are interests for a state and how have
analysts defined them. Hans Morgenthau, one of
the most influential thinkers of the “realist” school
says, “The idea of interest is indeed of the essence
of politics and is unaffected by the circumstances
of time and place. Thucydides’ statement, born of
the experiences of ancient Greece that,“identity of
interests is the surest of bonds whether between
Green Book 2017 43
 PAKISTAN ARMY
states or individuals” was taken up in the nineteenth
century by Lord Salisbury’s remark that “the only
bond of union that endures” among nations is “the
absence of all clashing interests.”7
Many people referred derisively to the
British as a nation of shopkeepers. While the British
may take offense, it does point to the fact that
the “interests of our country” which Palmerston
described as the guiding principle of foreign policy
meant the economic interests of its people and
therefore of the nation. In today’s world this is
even truer than it was in the days when the British
Empire was being created and managed to further
British economic interests.
I have always believed that, in large
measure, the determinant of foreign policy is
domestic policy. Foreign policy is the handmaiden
of domestic policy. If in domestic policy there
is a certain ideological thrust and there is a
determination that our relations with other
countries will be pursued bearing this ideology
in mind despite the costs that it may entail then
foreign policy, will veer towards establishing close
relations with the countries that share this ideology.
The task is then of formulating a foreign policy
that allows an advance towards this goal without
putting at risk other relationships that are of greater
importance in political and economic terms.
Domestic policy and its formulation has
to take account of the elements of national power
and that includes a realistic assessment of what its
geographical location means.
With a population of 185 million Pakistan is
the 6 most populous country in the world. Were it
th
located in Africa, it would be the largest country of
the continent having about 25 million more people
than Nigeria and being almost three times the size of
South Africa. But in its present location, Pakistan
is dwarfed by two neighbours China and India;
the world’s most heavily populated countries at
1.33 billion and 1.15 billion respectively.
With an area of 796,000 sq. kms, a coast
line of 1046 kms and an exclusive Economic Zone in
the Arabian Sea of almost 240,000 sq. kms Pakistan
ranks as the 36th largest country in the world but
again it is surrounded by neighbours who dwarf it
in size with China being 9.6 million sq. kms, India
being 3.3 million sq. kms, and Iran being 1.6 million
sq. kms.
With the exception of Afghanistan
therefore it would appear that Pakistan has as
its neighbours countries that are bigger in size
and population like India and China or richer
in resources like Iran. The influence that size and
44 Green Book 2017
resources normally confers on countries vis-a-vis its
neighbours is not one of the benefits that Pakistan
enjoys.
Having such large neighbours, being at the
juncture of different regions and having a coastline
that can provide outlets for landlocked states can
however confer advantages. It can be the ideal
transit country for overland trade between the large
markets that these countries represent.
Pakistan’s location makes it an ideal transit
point for trade between South Asia and the
Middle East, between Central Asia and South
Asia and for providing Central Asia access to
the Sea trade routes. It would be a mistake,
a mistake we often make, to suggest that
the advantage of Pakistan’s location is geo-
strategic or geo-political. These if they exist
are peripheral. The true advantage is geo-
economic.
Domestic policy, if realistically framed,
has also to take account of the country’s natural
resource base. What is the level of human resource
development as reflected in the standards of
education and health it has achieved? What is the
extent of its cultivable land resource and what is
the availability of water, advanced technology,
land ownership patterns that can maximise
productivity. Are there underground mineral or
fossil fuel reserves that can be exploited? Can we
undertake their exploitation ourselves or do we
need assistance to develop our human resource,
optimise the use of our land resource and extract
the mineral and fossil fuel reserves under our soil?
If domestic policy recognises that the
resources, the country can generate internally, are
not sufficient to fulfil the economic development
requirements of the country and that it needs
greater access to foreign markets, large amounts
of foreign assistance and foreign investment etc.
foreign policy must then be formulated with these
objectives in mind. Clearly in advancing these
objectives there will be domestic policy trade-offs in
terms of the reciprocal opening of our own domestic
market to foreign exporters, granting of concessions
to foreign investors, accepting economic conditions
for foreign assistance etc. but concessions may also
have to be made in foreign policy terms.
There is, however, one overriding
foreign policy goal that cannot be subservient
to domestic policy and that is, in fact, the one
area in which domestic policy must bend to the
requirements of foreign policy. This goal is the
protection of the territorial integrity and the
sovereignty of the country. The extent to which
this goal becomes the determinant of foreign policy
will vary from country to country. In our own case
this has been paramount from the start because
of the circumstances in which Pakistan came into
being.
How would one determine the formulation
of foreign policy in the context of an external threat
to national security? Firstly, the country’s leaders
have to use all the means at their disposal to
determine the existing or potential external threats
to the territorial integrity and sovereignty of the
country. Second, they have to determine whether
these threats are such, as can be met by the nation’s
own capabilities or by capabilities that it can afford
to acquire. Third, they have to determine whether
these threats can be mitigated by diplomatic efforts
directed at the source of the threat or by diplomatic
efforts to build alliances with other nations that
share the same threat perception or for other
reasons can help offset these threats. Fourth, they
have to determine the maximum and the minimum
concessions that the country would be prepared
to make or that the sovereign authority believes it
can offer to blunt the source of the threat or to build
alliances or to acquire the where withal to mitigate
or offset the threat.
PAKISTAN ARMY
Pakistan’s National Security Advisor Sartaj Aziz,
holds talks with Afghan Foreign Minister Salahuddin
Rabbani, at the Foreign Ministry in Islamabad,
Pakistan
Further the policy that is devised vis-à-vis
the source of the threat must be such as would follow
from a deep and thorough study of (a) the potential
adversary country’s strengths and weaknesses. (b)
the inimical elements in that country, the rationale,
if any for their adversarial posture, the degree of
influence they enjoy in decision making, and the
steps that can be taken to mitigate the hostility. (c)
the friendly elements in that country, the reasons
they have for seeking friendship, the degree of
influence they enjoy in decision making and what
steps can be taken to increase this influence. (d) the
identification and the highlighting of interests that
are served by friendly rather than hostile relations
and finding ways of making these common interests
known to the masses in both countries with a view
to building public opinion in favour of friendship
rather than hostility.
In seeking support from other countries
the policy devised would be one that takes
account of the prospective ally’s own needs and
its political system. It would be sensitive to the
needs of the groups or individuals who would need
to be influenced. It would seek to establish as far
as possible the geo-political compulsions, which
would make such support helpful if not essential
for the prospective ally. It would stress the affinities
between the peoples of the two countries and the
Green Book 2017 45
 PAKISTAN ARMY
advantages that an alliance would bring in terms
of promoting trade and economic relations on
favourable terms etc. Finally, it would include what
could be offered as a quid pro quo for such support.
The foregoing list of determinants, by
no means comprehensive, would show that
information in a number of areas would have to be
gathered and this task would of necessity require
primarily the employment of the Ministry of Foreign
Affairs and the embassies it maintains in foreign
countries but a number of other agencies including
the defence and economic ministries and the
intelligence agencies would also need to contribute.
For example, determining the magnitude
of the threat will require not only information
on the publicly known facts about the size of the
potential adversary’s armed forces and about the
quality of its weaponry but also less well publicised
or even secret information about the leadership
qualities of the military commanders, about the
relations these commanders have with the political
leadership, about their ability to deploy rapidly,
about their indigenous capability to manufacture
military hardware and a whole host of other such
information. Such information, obtained through
overt or covert sources would then need to be
assessed primarily by military experts before it
becomes an input in the policy making process.
Similarly identifying inimical and friendly
elements in the potential enemy country and the
degree of influence they enjoy would primarily be
the function of the ministry of foreign affairs and
the envoys it deploys but these efforts could be
usefully supplemented by information obtained
covertly by intelligence agencies using tools that are
not available to the personnel of the Foreign Office.
Other organs of the government such as commerce,
economic affairs, finance would have the expertise
to gauge the commercial and economic interests of
the country in question and identify the degree to
which such interests could coincide or clash with
ours. Outside of formal government organs officially
sponsored or privately financed Think Tanks and
the researchers they employ could supplement the
information and analysis flow.
In other words, intelligence agencies and
other organs of the government have an important
role to play in gathering the information needed,
particularly in the context of external security, for
the formulation of a coherent foreign policy. The
government would be failing in its duty if it relied
solely on the ministry of foreign affairs for this
purpose even while recognising that the primary
46 Green Book 2017
responsibility for advising the government on
foreign policy must rest with this ministry.
Theoretically it is the ministry of foreign
affairs that will be the recipient of foreign policy
related information from the intelligence and other
agencies of the government and will incorporate
it, after analysis, in its recommendations to the
government on how Pakistan’s security and other
interests could best be safeguarded. In practice,
however, the situation has been to say the least,
very different.
Pakistan has found itself, forced by the
perceived threat to its security from the time it
came into being, to devote a larger part of its
limited resources to defence and as a necessary
corollary to give the military a greater role in
the political life of the fledgling democracy.
There is a general impression, and one
cannot regard it as inaccurate, that on vital
foreign policy issues the government’s policy
formulations are based on the conceptual
frameworks and the information and analysis
provided by the intelligence agencies and it is these
agencies that are given primary responsibility for
their implementation. There is also the general
impression that these conceptual frameworks lay
an inordinately heavy emphasis on the military
facets of security and downplay the other facets
that contribute, as much if not more, to genuine
national security.
Of course it is not in Pakistan alone
that intelligence agencies play a role in policy
formulation that goes beyond the provision of raw
information obtained overtly or covertly. In the
United States where much emphasis has been laid
on the fact that in making his policies the President
relies most heavily on his principal foreign policy
adviser, and that is the Secretary of State, there
have been periods when the director of the CIA, has
been the dominant voice in policy making. During
the period of the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan,
the CIA, by and large, dictated American policies in
Afghanistan. It had a larger presence in Afghanistan
and perhaps in Pakistan than the State Department.
There is no doubt that all over the world on
questions of security the intelligence agencies tend
to go beyond the narrow mandate of providing raw
information or neutral analysis for their political
masters. This is as it should be. Intelligence
gathering, 90% of which lies in the public realm, has
to be done, if it is to be done effectively, by educated
and trained personnel and it is almost inevitable
that these persons will draw conclusions from such
information and wish to share such conclusions
along with the information. The question is whether
such conclusions or recommendations should by
themselves become the basis of policy.
Most intelligence agencies have both an
information gathering and analysis capability
and an operational capability. Good intelligence
agencies try and ensure that the two functions are
insulated from one other. But this is clearly difficult.
There is then a strong temptation to tailor the
analysis of the information gathered to the needs of
the operational branch.
Secondly while intelligence agencies can
develop tremendous capacities for information
gathering there are inevitably lacunae and, equally
importantly, there are large bodies of information
the analysis of which needs capabilities and
experience that rest elsewhere in the government
structure.
Thirdly, foreign policy is not a one-
way street. The viability or otherwise of policy
options may depend on the reactions and needs
of other countries. Gauging these accurately needs
contact with decision makers in these countries and
that is the task of the ambassadors and embassies.
It would therefore be right and proper
that the role of the intelligence agencies should
be limited to providing as fully as possible
the information that they are able to gather,
along, if necessary, with their own analysis of
what this information could mean to the one body
that is institutionally responsible for assisting the
leadership in formulating foreign policy and that
body indeed is the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
This ministry’s recommendations,
once accepted by the government, should, in a
democracy, be subject to deliberation and debate
either in open session or, if the subject is sensitive,
in camera by the relevant committees of Parliament
and become the basis of policy only after they have
been approved.
It is a sad fact that in the relatively short
periods, for which democracy has prevailed
in our country; our legislators have paid little
attention to foreign policy even while recognising
its importance. For some of them it is a subject
of such enormous complexity and delicacy that
it is best left to the experts. More cynically others
have chosen to ignore it because there is no real
constituent pressure to take an interest in this area
nor does specialisation in this field create the sort
of influence that the legislator can use to advance
PAKISTAN ARMY
his political ambitions or to solve the day-to-day
problems of his constituents.
The fact, however, is that in any democracy,
Parliament has a crucial role to play in foreign
policy formulation and implementation. They
not only adopt legislation needed domestically
to give effect to foreign policy decisions but also
in many countries to ratify any agreements that
the government in power reaches with other
countries or groups of countries or international
organisations.
Currently in Pakistan the power to ratify
agreements lies with the Cabinet and not directly
with the Parliament but there should be no mistake
that in such ratification the Cabinet is, at least
theoretically reflecting the will of the Parliament
and that when these agreements are of consequence
such ratification would normally be preceded by a
discussion in Parliament or at the very least in the
Foreign Affairs committee of both the National
Assembly and the Senate.
As our democracy matures we may well
come to the stage where all international
agreements will be the subject of discussion
and scrutiny not only by the Cabinet but by
Parliament and the Parliament’s consent will
be needed to ratify such agreements.
The Parliament also controls the purse
strings. It is for the Parliament to determine
what funds are made available for the Ministry
of Foreign Affairs and to the other agencies that
play a part in advising the government on foreign
policy issues. In so doing it can determine the
role the Ministry and the other agencies can play
in helping the government to formulate foreign
policy and thereafter, what resources the Ministry
of Foreign Affairs, as the principal instrument of the
government for implementation, will have to put
these policies into effect.
In domestic politics a successful politician
is the one who knows either directly or through his
aides, not only his own strengths and weaknesses
but also those of his coalition partners and his
adversaries. He knows to a nicety, which goals he
will need to modify to achieve consensus. And in
today’s world, he knows how to present a case
at the bar of domestic public opinion so that his
assessment rather than that of his opponents is
accepted.
Similarly the successful politician will
rely on the professional diplomat to give him a
sense of the perceived and real strengths and
Green Book 2017 47
 PAKISTAN ARMY
weaknesses of foreign countries, of the domestic
compulsions of the leaders of these countries and,
where necessary, an estimate of the ideological or
other considerations that guide decision making
in those countries. Where multilateral negotiations
are involved he may also want advice on how best
his country’s case can best be projected at the bar of
international public opinion.
The policy must be decided upon by the
government drawing upon the recommendations
that the Ministry of Foreign affairs provides based on
its own information and inputs from other agencies.
This is particularly so in a democracy where
governments change, and with them policies, but
48 Green Book 2017
the experience and expertise must remain available
to implement the new government’s policies with
the same enthusiasm and professionalism. The
room for policy changes may be limited but this
choice must be made by the sovereign authority.
Turning to another determinant of policy,
Article 40 of our Constitution states “The State shall
endeavour to preserve and strengthen fraternal
relations among Muslim countries based on
Islamic unity, support the common interests of the
people of Asia, Africa and Latin America, promote
international peace and security, foster goodwill
and friendly relations among all nations and
encourage the settlement of international disputes
by peaceful means”.
These foreign policy guidelines in the
Constitution are a reflection of no more than the
natural affinity that the people of Pakistan feel with
their co-religionists and with the peoples who have
suffered the same ravages under colonial rule.
But we sought to make it more. In our quest
for security we tried from the start to become part
of a Pan-Islamic movement ostensibly because of
our ideological moorings but in reality to find allies
against the threat from our eastern neighbour. We
soon discovered that in the fragmented Islamic
world there was no preparedness to participate in
an anti Indian alliance nor was there a preparedness
to accept Pakistan’s Middle East moorings. Not
only did the Arabs reject our overtures but more
importantly our own people believed that we
were, and continued to remain, essentially a South
Asian nation. Let me again recall that as we moved
towards creating this Pan Islamic movement and
playing a leading role in it, the acid reaction of King
Farook of Egypt was that from the way Pakistan was
behaving it seemed that Islam had only come into
being on 14th August 1947.
Let us however recall that for many years
Pakistan was the articulate spokesperson for the
struggle waged in international councils for the
liberation of Muslim countries from the colonial
yoke. If we punched well above our weight in the UN
and other international bodies it was because ours
was recognised to be the voice of moderate tolerant
Islam and because our advocacy of decolonisation
was conducted skillfully and with far greater
understanding of the dynamics of the international
situation than our Arab friends.
Let me add in the context of our relations
with the Muslim world that at one time around
1987-88 as we were discussing Pak-US relations
in the aftermath of the Soviet withdrawal from
Afghanistan that Pakistan, given its relations with
the Gulf countries, could be identified as the bastion
of stability that could irradiate such stability in the
event of unrest in the Gulf Sheikhdoms. This, I had
argued, was a common Pakistani and US interest. At
that time it appeared to be a reasonable proposition
but now seems very divorced from reality.
Let us also recognise that our relations
with the Muslim countries registered a quantum
jump after the Arab-Israeli War of 1973. The
successes achieved by our pilots while serving in
the Jordanian and Syrian air forces-the only bright
spots for the Arabs in these wars won us popular
support. President Bhutto’s subsequent tour of the
PAKISTAN ARMY
Middle Eastern countries and his liberalisation of
passport issuance made possible the large scale
movement of Pakistani workers to the Gulf countries
as they used their higher oil revenues to engage in
large scale construction and development.
Our relations with the Gulf countries
- Saudi Arabia and the UAE in particular have
been extensive and have included a large military
component but we have been clear from the start
that we would not take sides in any intra-Arab or
intra Muslim conflict. During the Iran-Iraq war
we carefully eschewed taking sides but offered to
mediate. Our stationing of troops in Saudi Arabia
during the first Gulf war was subject to the clear
understanding that we would undertake internal
defence duties but not participate in any conflict
with Iraq. Our recent decision not to join the Saudi-
led coalition in their war against the Houthis in
Yemen was in accord with this policy, which we had
followed in the past and which we will hopefully
continue to follow in the future. It has caused
umbrage and some effects of this policy are being
felt in the economic sphere.
This episode, of course, highlights the fact
that to be able to follow diplomatic and political
policies that are in the best interests of the country
we must, by mustering our own resources, reduce
our vulnerability to economic pressures.
Again a reflection of the fact that foreign
policy initiatives can be pursued only if our internal
polity is seen to be strong and in accord with the
initiatives we seek to advance.
Our quest for security and our perceived
need to strengthen our defence capabilities pushed
us into abandoning our earlier policy of non-
alignment and to choose sides in the “Cold War”.
We joined SEATO in 1954, and in 1955 we joined the
Baghdad Pact, both alliances designed to “contain”
China on one hand and the Soviet Union on the
other. We should be clear, however, that as the US
sought to build these alliances it first tried to woo
Nehru’s India into these alliances and turned to
us only after Nehru rebuffed these overtures. We
should also be clear that we proceeded on the basis
of creating a contrived commonality of interests.
We had no real quarrel with the Soviet Union
though we were apprehensive of the relations it was
developing with Afghanistan but we too proceeded
to condemn the “Godless” communists and talked
of our fear that the Soviets would seek to move
toward the warm waters of the Arabian Sea through
Afghanistan and Pakistan’s Balochistan. Our public
posture of being anti Soviet did not, however, in
private conversations prevent us from insisting
Green Book 2017 49
 PAKISTAN ARMY
that our allies should come to our aid in the event
of an Indo-Pak conflict. The Americans refused
to offer this assurance and went further insisting
that all weapons they supplied could not be used
for anything other than countering a communist
threat.
So the Americans allied with us to contain
the Soviet Union and to prevent the spread of the
communist ideology. We entered the alliance to
build our defence capabilities, to benefit from
economic assistance and to allow us to entertain
the forlorn hope that the USA would be on our side
if there was war with India.
All military aid and even military sales
were stopped after war broke out between India and
Pakistan and military aid was not resumed until
1982 when Pakistan’s assistance was needed to
reverse the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan. Again,
Pakistan and the USA had very different goals when
they cooperated to reverse the Soviet occupation
of Afghanistan. The USA wanted to inflict upon
50 Green Book 2017
the Soviet Union the same sort of defeat as the
Americans had suffered in Vietnam in the 70s.
Pakistan on the other hand was concerned that the
consolidation of the Soviet control over Afghanistan
would inevitably lead to the Soviet Union moving
further to occupy Pakistan’s Balochistan and secure
access to the warm waters of the Arabian Sea.
From the American perspective, this
cooperation succeeded beyond the West’s wildest
dreams. It was the catalyst for the disintegration of
the Soviet Union and consequently the emergence
of the USA as the sole super power.
For Pakistan, however, the consequences
were very different. The USA could and did walk
away leaving Pakistan to cope with the detritus of
that war which included the deterioration of law
and order, unrestricted smuggling, the conversion
of Karachi into the most weaponised city in South
Asia and the growth of fundamentalist Islam.
Much of this detritus was our doing - we
could have confined Afghan refugees in camps
as Iran did, we could have prevented them from
being the shock troopers of our religious parties
we could have prevented the growth of the evil of
sectarianism, we could have made a greater effort
to throw out foreign fighter who used Pakistan
as the base for the fight against the Soviets in
Afghanistan. There is no doubt, however, that
America’s abandonment of the region compounded
the difficulties we faced.
All aid was then stopped in 1990 when
President Bush failed to certify that Pakistan
did not possess a nuclear device. I was then
Ambassador to the USA and I argued that since all
US intelligence agencies were agreed that Pakistan
did not possess a nuclear device, which is what was
mentioned in the Pressler amendment the failure
to certify was unjustified. I was told that sometime
earlier, State Department lawyers testifying before a
Congressional committee had said that possession
of all the components of a nuclear device amounted
to possession of a nuclear device. When I protested
that this had never been communicated to us, the
Americans had no response beyond saying that in
conversations with Pakistani officials this position
had been verbally conveyed. We had a point but it
seemed futile to pursue it because the dye had been
cast. The nuclear programme remained a subject
of discussion through the period of our anti-Soviet
alliance. Some steps were taken to limit our access
to required nuclear material but there was no break
in the relationship since Pakistan was the key to
achieving the objective of expelling the Soviet
Union from Afghanistan.
The next phase of the relationship started
after 9/11 but I recall vividly that in 2001, just before
9/11 the US Deputy Secretary of State Richard
Armitage who had primary responsibility in the
State Department for South Asia said that in the
past, US Pakistan relations had always been based
on being against something - be it India or the
Soviet Union and proposed that now the US should
frame a relationship based on being for something
positive and that he said could be assisting Pakistan
to prevent its Talibanisation.8
I will not go into the history of US-Pak
cooperation or alleged lack of it in the American war
against the Taliban and the Global War on Terror.
But I will point out that in a conference held in the
NDU in 2008 between the analysts of the Pak NDU
and the American NDU, I had said that “Now after
a period of uncertainty and lack of clarity both in
Pakistan and the United States there is for the first
time in the chequered history of the last 60 years
a relationship based on a genuine “commonality
PAKISTAN ARMY
of interest” - the global threat of terrorism which
will probably remain the principal determinant
of American foreign policy for some time to come
and the threat terrorism and extremism pose to
the survival of Pakistan as a moderate tolerant
democratic Islamic state. This “common interest”
will to my mind be the determinant of the US-Pak
relationship for at least the next decade because the
“common problem or threat” will take at least that
long to be resolved.”
Why have I talked at such length about our
relations with the USA?
It illustrates four elements in the
formulation and implementation process. One you
may create a contrived commonality of interest
to get what you want and pay only an acceptable
price for it. Two, you may form an alliance to
pursue the same goal but for very different reasons.
Three, there is little that happens in international
relations based on favours done in the past. Four,
governments feel compelled to maintain relations
even while the public is opposed and even when
the government itself encourages such adverse
sentiments because national needs so dictate.
Today as the world moves towards multi-
polarity and as Trump’s America appears to be
moving towards policies that effectively suggest
a withdrawal from the role it has played in the
international arena since the end of the Second
World War and as China moves ahead as the
champion of free trade and the major proponent
of the Climate Change accord reached in Paris
the policies of almost all countries will have to
take account of this new emerging situation on
the ground. For Pakistan the CPEC is a “game
changer” both in terms of how it advances
economic development in the country but also
how it becomes the most concrete manifestation
of the geo-economic advantages of its location.
It was encouraging to hear Prime Minister Nawaz
Sharif highlight this facet of the CPEC and to
downplay what many have mistakenly talked about
as its geo-strategic advantages.
We must also consider Foreign policy as
a tool for advancing our national interest bear in
mind another reality. In international relations
perceptions matter and more often than not
perceptions created by reports of influential think
tanks in the west - become the basis of policy for
many countries. Here is what one such adversial
remark that appeared in a larger piece by Richard
Haass of the Council of Foreign Relations “And one
country that we haven’t talked about much recently
and is always on my shortlist of things that keep
Green Book 2017 51
 PAKISTAN ARMY
me up at night is Pakistan. This is a country with
well over 100 nuclear weapons; it has the world’s
fastest-growing nuclear arsenal. It’s also home to
some of the world’s most extreme terrorists, and it
has some of the worst governance in the world.”9
In conclusion let me talk about 5 points
some procedural and some more substantive.
First procedural point if there is to be coherence
in the formulation of foreign policy the Rules of
Business have to be observed. They provide that
with the exception of the Economic Affairs division
and its discussions with foreign government
representatives all other contact between
government organs/officials must be conducted
through the ministry of Foreign Affairs. No letters
can be written to foreign governments directly by
any official without consultation with the Foreign
Office.
Second greater attention must be paid to
give the FO the space it needs to be able to do the job
it is required to do. The FO officers need to do their
homework more thoroughly but they must then be
allowed to present their point of view without being
intimidated or being forced to give up the turf that
rightly belongs to them
Third and more substantive, as has been the
recurrent theme of this essay we need to look at our
security paradigm in the light of not only narrowly
defined external security issues but at security as a
whole. Our decision makers have to determine how
far the external security aspect has been changed
by our demonstration of nuclear capability in 1998
and the creation of a robust and secure capacity to
deter any potential adversary.
Fourth, equally if not more substantively,
we must recognise that at this time, dangers to
our security flow from our internal problems
chief among them the continued presence of
extremist and terrorists which our brave statements
notwithstanding are making relations difficult with
all our friends as much as with our adversaries. The
Americans say that of the 98 identified terrorist
organisations 20 are in the AfPak region and further
that 7 of them are based in Pakistan. 10
Fifth, it is undoubtedly clear that for a
variety of reasons we are experiencing a virtual
collapse of governance in every sphere be it the
Federal Secretariat, the Provincial secretariats or
the State owned enterprises. Yet this was a country
which survived the difficult circumstances of its
birth and the efforts to choke the “moth eaten
state” at birth because dedicated leaders and civil
servants made herculean efforts to imaginatively
handle the problems of the fledgling state even
52 Green Book 2017
PAKISTAN ARMY
while following the rules and eschewing the
temptation of misusing their office for personal
gain. Contrary to the general perception such civil
servants exist even today and, though their number
has shrunk, they can be the nucleus around which
the civil administration is rebuilt.
What should this suggest to us for the future
in terms of foreign policy goals? I would suggest
that what we need is a focus on using all available
resources to tackle the internal security threat and
marshal foreign assistance for this purpose secure
in the knowledge that such assistance will be
forthcoming because the western world has a great
stake in ensuring that Pakistan eliminates the threat
of extremism with which it is faced and which helps
maintain safe haven for terrorists who the West
believes are intent on using these safe havens to
plan attacks on western countries.(the Americans
say that 20 of the 98 terrorist organisations that
have been identified are in the AfPak and seven
of them are based in Pakistan). We must focus on
building our national power primarily by providing
the sort of good governance that will ensure the
use of our own limited resources and those that we
can raise abroad by smart diplomacy to develop
our human resource and to use optimally the other
natural resources that we have.
As we go about raising international
resources our smart diplomacy must consist of
recognising that there are no free lunches in
international relations just as there are none in
every day transactions but still managing to reduce
the cost by stressing mutuality of interest where it
really exists and creating one where it does not.
NOTES
1. The Oxford Companion to American Military History
2. Norman J. Padelford and George A. Lincoln, “The Dynamics of International
Politics,” p. 1977
3.
4.
Hugh Gibson, “The Road of Foreign Policy”, New York: Doubleday, 1944
Quoted by Henry Kissinger in “World Order”
5. Lord Palmerston Speech to the House of Commons (1 March 1848).
6. Quoted by Henry Kissinger in “World Order”
7. Hans J. Morgenthau, Politics Among Nations: The Struggle for Power and
8.
Peace, Fifth Edition, Revised, (New York: Alfred A. Knopf, 1978, pp. 4-15
In an earlier interview to The Hindu (18-06-01), Armitage had maintained
that the so-called great (US-Pak) relationship of the past was, in fact, a false
one because in the first instance “it was built against the Indo-Soviet axis
and then latterly it was against the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan. So we
did not have a policy for Pakistan, we had a policy with Pakistan directed
against something else…. what we are desirous of is for our Pakistani friends
to try and develop a relationship about Pakistan.” In essence what Armitage
was saying was that while in the past there had been “cold war” reasons for
relations with Pakistan now the American interest was to use its relationship
with Pakistan to help it become a moderate, stable, democratic state which
could resist the pull of the Taliban ideology. (Newsline Feb. 2003 State of the
Union by Najmuddin A. Shaikh) accessed on 200517
9. Richard Haass President CFR IS IT TIME FOR WORLD ORDER 2.0? Daily Dose
070317
10. Department of Defense Press Briefing by General Nicholson in the Pentagon
Briefing Room, December 2, 2016) and Press Conference With General John
Nicholson and Secretary of Defense Ash Carter;” General John Nicholson
, Commander of International Forces in Afghanistan, Dec. 9, 2016, http://
www.defense.gov/News/Transcripts/Transcript-View/Article/1026539/press-
conference-with-general-john-nicholson
Green Book 2017 53
 PAKISTAN ARMY PAKISTAN ARMY

A foreigner ferrying his vehicle across Attabad Lake in
Gojal Hunza Valley of Northern Pakistan.
proved navigable as far as Lahore, in flat bottomed
boats or barges up to Lahore.
Pakistan has, 350,000 registered trucks,
running on 6% of road infrastructure, carrying 96%
of freight traffic, completely saturating road space.
We have 450 locomotives pulling 4% of freight
and 39 aircrafts carrying zero freight. Hence, there
exists some space for exploring another dimension
of transportation i.e. Inland Water Transportation
(IWT). We have a natural resource of thousands

Inland Water
of kms of navigable water channels, with capacity
more than road and rail combined, which has not
been tapped at all. This paper aims at exploring
existing IWT potential in Pakistan, highlighting its
influence on the fields of economy and defence, so
as to suggest a frame work for workable model in
Pakistan.

Transportation in Pakistan Understanding IWT

IWT is a method of using small to medium sized
barges on water bodies (such as rivers, canals
and lakes) that lie within a country’s frontiers
for the purpose of transporting materials and
human freight. It involves; a navigable water
channel (at least 5-8 feet), river craft (conforming
to minimum draft available in the water channel),
docks/jetties, water regulation structures and
navigational locks and aids. IWT System has
constant requirement of maintenance, although
it remains far more economical than road or rail
networks. Maintenance work includes clearance
Brigadier Muhammad Asim Iqbal, TI (M) of routes/lanes from obstructions, dredging to

W
The Officer is serving in Pakistan Army
remove sediments, improvement/strengthening of
banks and bed for assisting water regulation and
marking of navigable routes/lanes to aid movement
Abstract: Pakistan inherited a rich irrigation system, which is one of the world’s largest, spanning from illiam Dalrymple writes an in the navigable lane. Laws of IWT are similar
Arabian Sea to KPK. It spreads over the complete length and breadth of the country. However, use of interesting story in his book to traffic laws for inland transportation but are
these waterways for transportation was not seriously considered owing to sufficiency of road and rail “Return of a King” that in 1830, more methodical and stringently applied to avoid
infrastructure. Recent years have seen the saturation of road infrastructure, whereas rail has lost its Governor General of India accidents. These are invoked for controlling and
credibility as reliable means of transportation. Transit trade with Afghanistan and growing domestic despatched a covert mission to governing the IWT Systems. Transportation on IWT
transport has brought a phenomenal change in the flow of our traffic, which is going to multiply with the gather information about River Systems is also taxed to fulfil their maintenance and
advent of CPEC. Hence developing Inland Waterways for transportation is fast becoming a necessity for Indus, which he believed be made into a principle future development costs. A regulatory authority is
Pakistan. British transport route into Central Asia. He sent a of course, required to implement government laws
An effort has been made in this paper to explore the potential of inland waterways (IWT) and establish the boat up the Indus manned by a team of disguised and policies on IWT.
necessity of adding another dimension to existing means of transportation. Its linkages have been drawn draughts men and surveyors to map the river banks,
with economic and defence sectors, involving the major stakeholders of public and private sectors. This plumb its depth and test the practicality of British In Pakistan, roads take 96% of freight, thus
paper, after having set the base of theoretical framework, examines IWT history and previous studies on the streamers upstream Indus. In order to disguise saturating the road space and the single mode
subject, drawing pertinent conclusions. Few contemporary models have also been studied for comparative its true purpose, the raft was given a cover of of transport system. Air cargo is negligible
analysis. The paper then unfolds some of the recent initiatives of Punjab Government for developing water carrying diplomatic presents for Raja Ranjit Singh; and railways take 4 % of freight traffic, thus
transportation network in the face of ever increasing requirements. Relevant conclusions and brief analysis six rare breed Suffolk horses (never seen in India leaving the space to add another dimension of
of strengths and weaknesses of IWT logically conclude the paper. In the end, different options of IWT have before). On 4 March 1831, the expedition made slow transportation i.e. water transport.
been recommended for adoption depending upon various engineering solutions. progress upstream for 700 miles to Lahore. The
Key Words: Navigable water channel, freight , Sea transport, Road Congestion, Hydrographical, Indus proved shallow to introduce streamers on Here are few interesting facts about IWT:
infrastructure the Ganges model. However, Indus and Ravi were • Developing Costs. Nature has already done the

54 Green Book 2017 Green Book 2017 55

 PAKISTAN ARMY
initial engineering work for the transportation
infrastructure. The cost of developing IWT
could be as low as 5-30% of the cost of
developing an equivalent railway or a four-lane
expressway (depending upon the engineering
works required)
• Maintenance Cost. The maintenance cost of
IWT is approximately 20% of the maintenance
cost of an equivalent roadway (which fast
deteriorates with time comparing water
channels).
• Transportation Cost. It is estimated that 1
litre of fuel can move 180 tons/km by IWT
system. Whereas, the same amount of fuel
can move only 75 tons/km by rail and 25 tons/
km by road; air being the costliest of all. The
comparative ratios may vary with the size of
barges/navigability of water channel but still
remain 5 times cheaper than the road.
• Easy Integration with Sea Transport. Inland
water transport can easily integrate with Sea
transport and hence it reduces the extra cost
required for land-sea or air-sea transport
interface. It also reduces the time taken to
56 Green Book 2017
transfer the goods to, and from, sea transport
vessels.
• Economy of Fuel. In a recent survey1, one
million tons of wheat was moved for 1000
kms from Karachi to Punjab by multi modal
system i.e road, rail and water. The estimated
expenditure of fuel is 35, 12 and 5 million litres
respectively, costing 3.5, 1.2 and 0.5 billion
Rupees respectively. Imagine the saving of
fuel, which is growing in requirement by 3
times annually. Water Depth. With the latest
design of barges, we can transport millions of
tons of cargo in a water channel of 5 feet depth
and substantially more in a channel of 8 feet
or more.
• Relieving Road Congestion. IWT would
reduce traffic congestion with a ratio of 1km
:45km, (though the international standard
is 1:138); meaning thereby that 45 km of road
space would be shared by 1 km of water
channel. Reduction of traffic density would
result in reduction of accidents, noise and flow
disruptions.
• Futuristic Approach. The future of inland
“Where there is a will, there is definitely, a way”
Tourists using local resources to ferry across Waterway
Northern Areas of Pakistan
freight is in Intermodal Transportation
System, which refers to the ability of moving
containerised cargoes seamlessly using a multi-
modal transportation system.
Few contemporary models of developed, and
developing, world are discussed in ensuing
paragraphs for drawing relevant conclusions.
There is hardly a country in the world which
has potential like Pakistan and is not tapping
it. First on the list is USA.
United States of America (USA)
The IW ways of the USA include more than
40,000 km of navigable waters. Much of the
commercially important waterways of the
USA consist of the Mississippi River System
and connecting waterways. The Mississippi
River System, including the Gulf Intracoastal
Waterway (GIWW 1700 km) connects Gulf
Coast Ports with major inland ports, including
Memphis, Kansas City, St. Louis, Chicago, St.
Paul, Cincinnati, and Pittsburgh. The man made
waterway provides a 125 feet wide channel with
a controlled depth of 12 feet, designed primarily
PAKISTAN ARMY
for barge transportation. US Army Corps of
Engineers (USACE) is responsible for 19,000
km of the waterways including the Intracoastal
Waterway. Conducting feasibility studies and
maintenance of most of the commercially
important IWs is done by USACE, including fuel
taxed waterways. Commercial operators on the
designated waterways pay tax, deposited in the
IWs Trust Fund, which funds half the cost of
new construction and major rehabilitation of
the IWs infrastructure.
China
China is considered to be pioneer in IWT, wherein
their use of IWs for transportation dates back to 300
BC. China has world’s longest navigable IWs over
100,000 kms length and cargo volume through IWT
freight in China is the largest in world surpassing 1
Trillion tons in 2015. It has one of the most efficient
intermodal transport networks, integrating all
modes of transportation. Grand Canal is the world’s
longest canal (1,776 kms). It’s a world heritage and
the only North to South navigable waterway in
China. China has also incorporated “Roll on–Roll
off” concept of transportation, in which vehicles
are loaded onto IW vessels for movement through
economical stretches of waterways. Amongst the
bulk cargoes moved through IWs, construction
materials like sand, gravel, stones, cement etc. Have
the biggest share of approximately 34%. The official
regulatory authority is “Ministry of Transport”,
which looks after all the modes of transportation in
China. Ministry of Transport coordinates movement
on IWs in collaboration with Ministry of Water
Resources.
India
India is investing heavily in developing IWT System,
whereas, they have one of the world’s best railways
networks, which is public sector profit generating
project. India has about 14,500 kms of navigable
waterways which comprise of rivers, canals,
backwaters, creeks, etc. Presently, about 55 million
tons of cargo is being moved annually by IWT. In
India, the national waterways are developed by the
central government through the “IWs Authority of
India” (IWAI). It was set up by the IWs Authority of
India Act in 1985 under the Ministry of Shipping. It
is a statutory autonomous body for regulating and
developing navigation and shipping in the IWs.
Along with IWAI, “Central Inland Water Transport
Corporation” (CIWTC) also supports the IWT sector
through transportation of cargo via IWs and the
operation and maintenance of the vessels and
Green Book 2017 57
 PAKISTAN ARMY
waterway terminals. Based on the data available
on navigable waterways, a total of 106 water bodies
with a minimum length of 25 kms were declared as
National Waters (NW). These have been classified
into three categories based on financial viability
and location as well as into six clusters based on
location and target cargo.
From the study of these models, we safely conclude
that where naturally gifted exploiting water
transportation potential is a must. Wherever
the natural flow of rivers does not support the
transportation routes, man made water channels
have found the solution. Where, both the factors
do not coincide with the trade markets, local/
regional clusters have been formed. Intra-coastal
water channels and still water canals have also
been created instead of roads for economy of
construction, maintenance and transportation. The
funds generated from water transportation not only
maintain the infrastructure but also contribute to
its expansion, being far more economical compared
to roads.
History of IWT in Pakistan
Pakistan is blessed with immense IW
potential, both natural and artificial that can
serve the purpose of IWT System with sound
efficiency producing desired results.
The water in our channels is seasonal; we have
abundance of water in monsoon and rainy seasons
which results in floods and scarcity of water in dry
seasons when our rivers go almost dry. Resource
base of IWT includes; five major rivers and 56
canals (including link canals).2 To further relate
the benefits of IWT with respect to Pakistan’s geo
strategic location and its direct effects on economy
and military defence strategy, it’s necessary to
present the brief history of IWT Development in
Pakistan.
Water-borne trade along the Indus
river system finds a mention from the Harappa
civilisation when the river itself acted as the carrying
vessel: wood floated down from the valleys of
Kashmir, building materials were rafted down from
the upper reaches of the Indus and its tributaries.
British covert expedition in 1831 concluded that
River Indus / Ravi were shallow to introduce
streamers on the Ganges model. However, it was
navigable from Karachi to Lahore in flat bottomed
boats / barges. “Inland Water Transport” (IWT)
on the Indus and the five rivers (Jhelum, Chenab,
Ravi, Sutlej and Bias) was widely used prior to
58 Green Book 2017
the advent of railways in the latter part of the 19th
century. Indus Flotilla Company was established
in 1859 and used steamers and barges to run cargo
through the rivers of present day Pakistan. In the
absence of decent roads and railways, the rivers of
Pakistan provided a means of transportation all the
way from Arabian Sea to the Northern Punjab city
of Makhad (District Attock) for a short time referred
to as the Punjab Flotilla. From 1860 onwards, the
British Government neglected water transport
after the introduction of railways to benefit the
railways though Indus and some other canals had
considerable water transport on Indus.
Central Engineering Authority of Federal
Government was responsible for IWT for East and
West Pakistan; nothing was done in West Pakistan
but East Pakistan Ordinance No. LXXV of 1958 was
issued to set up an Authority for development,
maintenance and control of inland water transport
and of certain inland navigable waterways in
East Pakistan which latterly laid base for IWTA
in Bangladesh. After Indus Basin Treaty in
1963, during Pakistan Engineering Congress
session, a large number of studies and research
papers were prepared by various authors and
consultants, especially “Inland navigation from
Kalabagh to Sea” by Dr. Mohi-ud-din is worth
mentioning but nothing materialised.
Nothing significant was done in 30 years,
due to politico-military turmoil and regional
situation with regards to Afghanistan. In 1992-93 the
Pakistan Government got feasibility study through
“Luis Berger International Inc” while preparing
Highway Development Programme for the country.
The study clearly indicated that Indus from
Kalabagh to Port Qasim could be made navigable.
The consultants suggested postponing this project
till 2000 AD due to its underutilisation. In 2009, the
task force on the maritime industry recommended
activating cargo movement on inland waterways of
the country. A total of three IWT pilot projects i.e. 200
kms of Indus River, 200 kms Nara and Jamrao canals
in Sindh and 300 km on Kacchi Canal in Punjab
and Balochistan were subsequently proposed, and
approved by the President of Pakistan. In 2009-10,
the Planning Commission and a private consortium
signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU)
for implementing IWT in Pakistan. A sum of Rs 1.4
Billion for the project was also allocated in PSDP in
the Federal Budget for 2009-10. The Pakistan Navy,
with financial help from private sector, subsequently
conducted a survey of 200 km of Indus River from
Nowshera to Kalabagh. It was found that in the
northern portion of 200 km of River Indus, down to
Kalabagh, the water is sufficiently deep, while the
bridges are also high, while only a little work needs
to be carried out on the navigable channel.
Previous Studies on IWT
Re-establishing IWT in Pakistan has been on the
drawing boards since 1959, when a Presidential
Order was issued to examine the feasibility of this
transportation along the Indus River and canal
system. This was based on both economic and
strategic considerations. It was considered that
the existing transport network “rail and road” was
vulnerable, not only because they ran parallel to
each, but was particularly vulnerable as the only
link between Punjab and Sindh (the rail-road
bridge linking Kotri and Sukkur). IWT was first
examined as an extension to the construction work
under Indus Water Treaty to analyse the possibility
of using link canals as a means of transportation.
About two dozen studies have been carried out on
the subject (also consulted during research work).
Conclusions of most important studies are:
• Study by US Army - Tipton and KalmBach
1962. The study concluded that “the possibility
of large-scale mechanically propelled inland
water navigation on the rivers of West Pakistan
or the link canals is unpromising”. The reasons
highlighted in the study were:
• Cities are far from the dry weather river
channels.
• Extensive dredging required during dry
season due to lesser water.
• Extensive engineering effort over bridges,
enroute.
• Highway development programme for
Pakistan by Louis Berger- 1992
• Three main navigational water routes were
identified; Sukkur to Kalabagh, Kalabagh
to Kotri and downstream Kotri.
• Study concluded that conversion of the
PAKISTAN ARMY
Indus into a navigation channel is feasible
after hydrological engineering.
• Rivers of Chenab and Ravi are not suitable
due to lesser water.
• The consultant advised to take on the
projects after 2000 AD because of less
passenger and freight traffic in the country
in 90s.
• Hydrographical survey was conducted by
Pakistan Navy in 2009, with not much of
credible outcome.
• Feasibility study by Techno Consultant
International (Pvt) Limited (TCI) and Royal
Haskoning DHV of Netherlands. This feasibility
study was conducted on two routes of Punjab
(in 2015/16); Attock to Daud Khel (175 km)
and Daud Khel to Taunsa (330 km). Generally,
it has been declared viable with suggested
engineering solutions.
Economic Relevance
A large portion of its fleet has been grounded for
want of repairs and technical sufficiency. PIA
is running continuously in loss; only in 2015 it
suffered a loss of Rs 35 Million. Whatever PIA earns
is mainly generated from passenger’s traffic, cargo
earns maximum 5% of revenue.3
Pakistan Railways is an energy efficient
and fairly economical mode of transport, but is
on its decline for past few decades, as it handled
73% freight traffic in 1950s/60s which gradually
reduced to 4% in 2015; and it continues to run
in loss.4 Most of its divisions have outlived their
productive lives, infrastructure as well as its
rolling stocks. It is adversely impacting upon the
operational efficiency, as it could not be upgraded
as per technological developments. A cursory look
at its physical structures and rolling stocks paint a
gloomy picture of an elaborate structure crumbling,
finances collapsing, services being suspended,
coupled with inflation, inefficiency and corruption.
Resultantly,
Pakistan Railways which used to handle 73%
of freight traffic is reduced to less than 4% in
2015.
Highways form the backbone of Pakistan’s
transport system; a total road length of 263,775 km
accounts for 96% of freight traffic. Out of which
12,131 km is with NHA (4.6%), carrying 80% of
commercial traffic. N-5 (Peshawar to Karachi) takes
65% of highway load, leaving 35% to other 38 other
highways / motorways.5 The existing highways are
Green Book 2017 59
 PAKISTAN ARMY
fast deteriorating and poorly maintained. As regards
road transport, public sector owns negligible share.
There used to be inter-city state owned transport,
famously known as GTS, which has faded away.
Talking of private sector transportation,
existing airlines have limited capacity and initiatives
with regards to cargo carrying capacity. Although
potential exists in private railways, however, there
has been no progress in this sector so far. Pakistan
Railways have actually deteriorated in structural
and commercial aspects since independence. Road
transport services are largely in the hands of the
private sector, which handles around 95% of freight
traffic. The road network is rapidly expanding
and attracting the cargo. Resultantly, the pivot
of industrial and commercial transport has
shifted from railway to road, owing to quicker
and credible service. Motorways are commercially
viable due to freight transportation, otherwise
would run in loss. The transporter groups and
organisations are formidable lobbies, which
inherently oppose any form of intrusion that would
reduce their share in transport.
Comparative Transport and Logistics Costs
The advantage of water transportation is that much
larger volumes can be transported at a substantially
lower cost per tonne kilometre, both in terms
of energy and costs consumed. The inter-modal
performance based on international comparison is
appended below:-
Ser Item Unit IWT Rail Road
1 One Lit Ton- 120 75 25
Km
2 Cost of Ratio 1 - 20
construc-
tion 4-lane
expressway
3 Mainte- Ratio 1 - 10
nance cost
4 Cost of Cent 1 1.75 5
fuel
• 1 truck can carry 20 tons of cargo, 1 rail wagon
can carry 40 tons while a medium size barge can
carry from 150-250 tons (suitable for navigating
on Pakistan’s canal network and through the
navigation gates on all barrages).
• Another study finds that freight transportation
costs per ton km handled by water
transportation services would be about 1/10th
60 Green Book 2017
of highway costs, and ¼th of the lowest
possible rail rates.
• There is at least 200 billion ton km movement
of cargo within the country, mainly on roads
and railways.
• The potential of inland water transport in
Pakistan is estimated to be 267 billion ton cargo
(more than road / railway combined).
• It can be safely assessed that just the fuel
savings (being critical), is remarkable. The
savings in fuel and in foreign exchange is
phenomenal and permanently recurring.
• There is another dimension of cost savings
under the head of road construction that IWT
could potentially allow for.
Building each kilometre of a standard 24-ft wide road
costs Rs.80-100M, while the cost of commissioning
100 km of Indus based IWT is less than Rs.50M .6
Note: Ton km is a unit of freight measurement
meaning the movement of 1 ton of cargo by a
distance of 1 km.
Drivers of Transportation
Agriculture. Farming is Pakistan’s largest
economic activity. Agriculture, including small-
scale forestry and fishing, contribute 25.3 per cent
of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and employ 48
per cent of the labour force. Agricultural products,
especially raw cotton, yarn, cloth and rice, tobacco,
fruits (fresh/dry) are important exports. Although
there is agricultural activity in all areas of Pakistan,
most crops are grown in the Indus River plain in
Punjab and Sindh.
Industry. Industrial sector is the third largest sector
of economy, accounting for 21.6 per cent of GDP and
13 per cent of total employment. Pakistan’s cement
industry is also fast growing. In 2013 Pakistan
exported 7,708,557 metric tons of cement. Pakistan
has an installed capacity of 44,768,250 metric tons
of cement and 42,636,428 metric tons of clinker
(used coal). In 2012 and 2013, the cement industry
in Pakistan became the most profitable sector of the
economy. Other major industries include fertiliser,
apparel manufacturing, edible oil, steel, sugar,
tobacco, chemicals, hosiery, machinery and food
processing.
Passenger Movement. Hubs of 91 per cent of
passengers’ movement are communication centres
connecting through highways and motorways.
Passengers are one of the significant drivers of
transportation in the country, with population
centres along the main arteries. Developing water
transportation might trigger a demographic shift to
less developed areas, which could set positive trends.
CPEC. CPEC envisages major upgrades and overhauls
of Pakistan’s transportation infrastructure directed
towards roads and railways on following routes:-
• Northern Alignment (Reconstruction).
National Highway (887 kms), which is to be
completely rebuilt and upgraded to a 4-lane
highway between Khunjerab and Burhan.
• Eastern Alignment. Generally following the
alignment of National highways / motorways,
this route will provide link to both major
ports of Karachi and Gwadar as well as Major
Industrial cities Lahore, Rawalpindi, Islamabad,
Faisalabad, Sialkot, Gujranwala and Multan.
• Western Alignment. The Western Alignment
routes in Balochistan consist of: N50 between
Dera Ismail Khan and Kuchlak; the N25 between
Kuchlak and Surab; the N85 between Surab
and Hoshab, and the M8 between Hoshab and
Gwadar.
Railways. Railways are also to be overhauled from
Karachi and Peshawar to support the road network for
better integration.
Recent Initiatives of Punjab Government
The survey of River Indus was carried out with
funding by a group of entrepreneurs as a public-
private sector initiative to evaluate the feasibility
of this channel. The Phase-I Project of transporting
goods and passengers to, and from, Daud Khel
to Attock is under test and trials. “Inland Water
Transportation Development Cooperation” (IWTDC)
has established hydrographical setup to undertake
PAKISTAN ARMY
bathymetric survey of rivers/harbours along this
section of River Indus. A barge of small size has
been locally constructed on the site, measuring
100x30 ft, with a capacity of carrying 300 tons
(30x10 truck load), likely to sail at the speed of 10
nautical miles. The objective of this pilot project
for Inland Waterways Navigation system in the
reaches Attock - Daud Khel & Taunsa is to carry
out a decision-oriented study to provide sufficient
information to the Government of Punjab regarding
the project cost and its benefits.
Feasibility study by Techno Consultant
International (Pvt) Limited (TCI) and Royal
Haskoning DHV of Netherlands was conducted
on two routes of Punjab (2015/16); Attock to Daud
Khel (175 km) and Daud Khel to Taunsa (330 km).
Summary of six volumes of their report reveals
following:-
• Comparative freight rates:
• Road: Rs.16/- per ton km
• Rail: Rs. 10/- per ton km
• IWT:Rs. 8.75 per ton km(likely to reduce to
half with eco load)
• Economic Analysis:
• EIRR (Economic Internal Rate of Return):
38%
• B:C Rates (Benefit Vs Cost) : 3.8
• NPV (Net Present Value) : 4,646 M
• The project declared viable if the cargo through
put materialise.
• Phased development is suggested over five years.
During this time private sector will also join in
Green Book 2017 61
 PAKISTAN ARMY
and take over major work load and development
investment.
• Suggested Transit Terminals, keeping in view
communication network, topography and
smooth river flow:
• Attock Khurd
• Khushal Garh
• Makhad
• Daud Khel
• Chashma Barrage
• Bhakkhar DI Khan Bridge
• Taunsa Barrage
• Medium size of barges possible after
engineering solution of barges. Small size of
barges suggested due to the size of navigational
lock at Jinnah Barrage; 25 m x 5 m x 1.5 m. Two
or three barges may be joined and pulled with a
tug to transport upto 500 tons in one go (50x10
ton trucks).
• The minimum depth of navigable channel
should be 2.5 m (to cater for 1.5 m draft barges).
Probability analysis carried out on 20 years
data at Attock Bridge revealed 95% probability
of occurrence of water.
• 2.5 m depth appears to be available from March
to September. However, caution advised during
Moon Soon season for high currents.
• Economic/social surveys revealed that
majority of stakeholders/groups have
affirmative response in favour of IWT project
in River Indus. Government interventions
would be required to encourage population
growth and development close to river to
compliment the benefits of river transport.
Public private partnership is the best solution
involving private sector and availing shipment
advantages even at micro level.
• River Indus from Jinnah Barrage to Taunsa
Punjab Pilot Proj IWT being prepared in Indus
62 Green Book 2017
Headworks (330 km) at places is highly unstable
especially during flood season. Following two
options offered in order of priority:
• Building a still water canal parallel to river.
Though very heavy in capital investment,
this canal would also be an instrument
of flood control and provide thousands
of acres of river area for industrial and
agricultural development.
• Adopt Thall Canal for river navigation. This
essentially requires engineering solutions
of low bridges. Moreover, canal has to be
widened in its desert reaches with more
water inflow to maintain navigable depth.
This outweighs option one in terms of
investment. However, the long term
economic returns are less.
• Consultants recommend that IWT be introduced
as alternative mode of transportation phases
depending on the response of stakeholders and
private sector.
• Unlike other infrastructure projects IWT has
more intangible benefits than the primary
ones. Introduction of industries, recreational
and socio economic activities are likely to open
up the dull corridors.
• Unlike past attempts of limited river length,
IWT operations of entire country be evaluated
and small pilot projects be derived from it.
• Multimodal transportation be encouraged at
national level to aid IWT.
Defence Communication Modes
Pakistan Army depends upon following modes of
communication:
• Air. Air transportation capability of our
armed forces is limited owing to available
assets coupled with expenses incurred for
transportation. This mode of transportation is
hence restricted to extreme emergencies only.
• Railways. Strategic movement of formations
was dependent on railways, especially move
from distant locations like Karachi, Quetta and
Peshawar. Redundancy of rolling stock and
locomotives has reduced military dependency
on railways.
• Roads. Road infrastructure is taking the load
of military logistics during peace and war,
thus creating road space management issues.
Hired Mechanical Transport and Civil General
Transport have replaced rolling stock, thus
shifting the dependency from public to private
sector.
Logistics Dimension. Logistics is largely dependant
upon rail and road networks for transportation of
men and material but not the rivers. Our inland
waters have lot of capacity to augment existing
communication infrastructure. Transportation of
materials at 4th (or even 3rd line tiers) from logistic
bases located in the vicinity of water channels
can be carried out through riverine medium as
an alternative to rail and road network. Also inter
corridor shifting can be handled through waterways
in addition to hired mechanical transport (HMT).
From navigation heads at river ports, loads could
be shifted from barges to HMT for further delivery
to respective logistics setups. Feasibility of utilising
waterways for shifting/buildup of logistics is
carried out depending upon the river located at
short, middle or far distance from various logistic
bases.
Movement Dimension. Long distance movement,
relief/rotation of units or transportation of newly
issued vehicles, can be carried out through water
channels rather than rail or road. Annually hundreds
of newly imported military vehicles are issued
from Central Ordnance Depot Karachi to different
formations of the country. Movement of large
number of collection parties exposes them to traffic
hazards and road accidents. Water transportation
will not only provide comparative safety but
also security, owing to its inherent depth from
the borders.
Analytical Review. In view of existing infrastructure,
factors affecting military logistics are analysed as
under:-
• Security Factor. River lines of communication
on Indus and Jhelum are sufficiently away
from the border and thus offer comparative
PAKISTAN ARMY
security and depth during hostilities. Similarly,
movement along water channels provides
inherent security against hostile aircrafts. The
likely damage to the medium/water vessel
is negligible compared to roads for obvious
reasons. Water body itself remains unaffected
from enemy action, unlike roads/rails. Even if
river ports are destroyed, river crafts execute
alternative anchorage for delivery of logistics
support. Unlike railway and road transport, the
rivers have limited critical points/bottlenecks,
which are likely to get choked as in case of
roads/railways. Moreover, reduced density
of water based traffic presents less attractive
targets to the enemy. The overriding advantage
of riverine communication over other means, is
its lesser susceptibility to enemy interdiction.
• Economy Factor. “Tonnage to vessel” ratio
is much favourable in case of water transport,
comparing wheeled vehicles. One medium size
barge can take the load of one civil GT company,
thus reducing density and increasing economy.
Lifting and back loading of all peace time
supplies and ordnance stores to/from various
formations can be done easily through river
transport. Similarly, administrative/training
movements can be executed through inland
waters at much economical cost, especially
so in the absence of credible railways. Water
transportation adds a new dimension to
logistics and transport. Availability of such
alternative “Lines of Communication” and
multiple “Main Supply Routes” adds incredible
flexibility to military logistics.
SWOT Analysis
Strengths. Pakistan possesses immense water
potential, both natural and man made. Pakistan
being smaller to Russia has three times bigger
irrigation network than latter. Our waterways have
following strengths:
• Pakistan has thousands of kms of navigable
waterways (exact figures need confirmatory
surveys).
• River Indus runs Northeast to Southwest,
naturally aligned to our main communication
arteries and trade routes.
• All water bodies from northern part of the
country join River Indus, further connecting
Arabian Sea.
• Canal system of Pakistan is world’s largest and
most spread, thus provides a strong base for
IWT.
• River Indus not only provides an alternative
Green Book 2017 63
 PAKISTAN ARMY
transportation means but also alternative
communication link between provinces well in
depth.
• River Indus and perennial canals provide
alternative medium of transportation round the
year, with some engineering solutions.
Weaknesses
• Water shortage in eastern rivers.
• Dynamic/live nature of rivers would require
regular maintenance.
• Undefined river banks, resulting into wide wet
spans with insignificant depth, especially in
southern Punjab.
• Political/provincial rivalries and exploitation
of riparian rights.
• Inherent risks of trying new dimension, thus
private sector’s investment.
• Low bridges and barrages will require
considerable engineering solutions, especially
Sukkur Barrage, because of absence of
navigational locks.
• Complete infrastructure including water vessels
has to be built from scratch, thus requiring
handsome budget.
• Lack of authentic data about river waters with
government departments, making such studies
questionable.
• Insufficient water regulation capability,
resulting into loss of 40 MAF water (104 MAF
out of 145 MAF utilised for irrigation), which
is wasted/drained out to Arabian Sea without
utilisation.
• 26 MAF out of 104 MAF irrigation water is further
wasted,(i.e. 1/4th), due to poor infrastructure/
seepage in our canal system.
Uncertain Investment Environment
Opportunities
• Water bodies in Pakistan are astride road and
railway network in the country, hence provide
better opportunities for passenger and cargo
transit.
• Waterways provide a link between cities/
population hubs, providing opportunity for
transportation of cargo and passenger service.
• Canal system of Pakistan offers an opportunity
to develop IWT in the areas which are away
from main river systems.
• This is the right time to integrate CPEC with
IWT and plan long term investments (domestic
and foreign).
• Development of IWT provides an opportunity
to create water regulation systems and also
64 Green Book 2017
PAKISTAN ARMY
power generation projects. route before twentieth century. British Empire • The synopsis of some 21 reports reveal that
• IWT, if well harnessed and propagated, can willingly sacrificed its potential to give impetus IWT failed because the project was taken up
serve as provincial integration. And also a to railways. Inherent potential of Indus water as a whole in one go with top heavy capital
platform to resolve water related issues. system needs exploitation. investment and with lack of support by
• An effective “Water Regulatory Authority” can • A dispassionate analysis reveals that advantages government/public sector. Non availability of
be an instrument to resolve many issues and of IWT outweigh its disadvantages. The cost sufficient water in lower reaches of Indus also
also contribute towards long term development benefit analysis favours its development. was detrimental to the project. Hence, there
plan. • Comprehensive transportation network calls for is a need to undertake the project in “phases”
• With correctly developed water regulation and integration, to form an “Intermodal System”. In under “public - private partnership”.
effective water regulatory authority, flood and our case, the absence of viable railways makes • Absence of authentic data (especially on
disaster management schemes can also be minimum denomination of “roads and waters” hydrology) with government departments
harnessed. as intermodal transportation. warrants conduct of separate feasibility studies
• Initial orientation of IWT will soon transit from • Initially, IWT costs in Pakistan is likely to be covering technical and financial aspects of IWT.
cargo transportation to passenger and cargo high, hence Public sector will have to take a • Taking lead from the USA’s Eastern Mississippi
traffic both. Thus serving the common people lead, later integrating Private sector. River system, we can also develop IWT in
and tourists alike, providing them different and • Issue of scarcity and wastage of water Punjab, as it already has a comprehensive IW
economical means of transportation. (approximately 40 MAF per year) warrants potential.
• Well-developed IWT system will boost proper water storage/regulation capability, • Where existing water channels/rivers do
economic and agriculture sectors, providing an thereby addressing threefold problem of not solve our purpose, new water channels/
opportunity to private investors too. power generation, flood protection and still water canals can be created to suit the
• Employment opportunities will multiply with water transportation. requirements of transportation and trade like
a new dimension of transport industry and
peripheral activities.
• Strategic defence alternate route.
• Catalyst for better inter-provincial coordination
and integration of regional economies.
• Reduction in road and traffic densities, thus
contributing to Green Pakistan.
• Ensure economy at all tiers and supplement
efforts to reduce cost of business.
• Introduction of a modern and multimodal
transportation regime.
• Reduction in environmental issues also earning
carbon credits, thus contributing to healthy
environment.
Threats
• Provincial interests if not served timely and
effectively, can retard such development.
• External/internal threats as in case of CPEC/
developmental projects.
• Lack of awareness can lead to misperceptions
and inhibitions, thus hijacking the complete
project.
• Political and economic instability threatens
domestic/foreign investment.
• River traffic might have to be suspended during
flood and winter season, unless proper water
regulation is ensured.
Conclusions
Apropos, following pertinent conclusions can be
drawn:-
• Historically, Indus River was used as trade
Green Book 2017 65
 PAKISTAN ARMY
USA, China and India.
• Chinese model of “Roll on – Roll off” (RORO)
may serve more useful in Pakistan. The initial
development on this model could be more
economical.
• IWT / mass transit would be a compulsion for
Pakistan in near future, as over population
& growing traffic has already saturated the
road infrastructure.
• Since Punjab government has initiated a
lead role in IWT, the same can be pursued
in short term within Punjab boundary, later
the model can be tried at National level,
with suitable engineering and legislative
solutions .7
• Based on world’s history, IWT is likely to
bring positive demographic change, causing
66 Green Book 2017
industrial and population shift towards rivers;
thus creating “Economic Industrial Parks”.
• Low speed of IWT and transportation of
perishable items could be offset; like India and
China.
• Inherent disadvantage of low speed of IWT
can be off set, by moving bulk cargo for long
distances and managing round the clock
transportation, employing latest navigation
techniques and barges.
• Following significant nodes appear on North-
South trade route, through conclusions of
“modal graph”/simulation software, for which
alternative routes should be planned for
flexibility of movement:
• Critical Nodes. Gwadar, Gilgit, Khunjerab.
• Important Nodes. Chilas, Hassan Abdal,
DIK, Khuzdar and Turbat.
• Considering the agriculture and industrial
hubs of the country, the areas which may be
identified as Navigational heads are:-
• Attock on River Indus.
• Rasool Headworks on River Jhelum.
• Qadirabad Headworks on River Chenab.
• Guddu/Sukkar Headworks on River Indus.
• Peace time military movement, where economy
overrides urgency, may be considered through
Inland Water Transportation.
Recommendations
Staying within the conceptual/theoretical domain,
following recommendations are proffered:
• Tech studies and surveys for financial/
economic feasibility by technocrats and
PAKISTAN ARMY
concerned departments are recommended to
judge the efficacy of IWT in the country.
• IWT development should be considered on fast
track to ensure integration with CPEC. China
being the largest IWT operator would be more
than willing to invest and assist in river based
transportation.
• Trade route through inland waters should
be added to existing CPEC communication
development plans. This would be easily
palatable to all stake holders in comparison to
much debated road infrastructure. Moreover,
the developmental needs of Balochistan
and Sindh (as originally conceived) can also
be dovetailed through existing/new water
channels.
• Though much economical than developing any
other mode of transportation, infrastructure
of IWT may be phased progressively. Viable
sections with easy solutions may be developed
initially, leading to a complete infrastructure
from sea to mountains in long term.
• Formulation of a regulating body in the shape
of IWT Authority (IWTA) is recommended.
The regulating body shall have members from
private and public sectors (including defence
forces).
• Print and electronic media should be used for
both, perception and conflict management on
IWT, emphasising its futuristic requirement
and its efficacy for all provinces. Also involving
experts and academia for their professional
output and developing industry-academia
linkages for better planning and execution.
• Existing hydraulic infrastructures shall
be improved/rehabilitated through expert
engineering solutions to suit IWT and improve
water storage/regulation capability.
• “Roll on Roll off” (RORO), IWT model of
China in which loaded vehicles are parked
in a vessel till their destination road/rail
head, may be adopted for all the proposed
models of IWT. Vehicle can ferry through
the economical stretches of waterways.
This method does not require elaborate
infrastructure.
• The plan of IWT should be conceived and
implemented in totality, including all transit
facilities, warehouses, packing and bulk
breaking facilities, and infrastructure of river
port facilities. This should be done involving
subject experts and implying “logistics and
supply chain management” techniques.
• A fine balance would have to be ensured
Green Book 2017 67
 PAKISTAN ARMY PAKISTAN ARMY

between the basic considerations of supply
chain graph; “responsive” and “cost effective”
criteria.
Recommended models for IWT in Pakistan are:
• River Based Model
• River Indus being the best option should
be utilised for IWT network from Attock to
Arabian Sea.
• A pilot project from Attock to Chashma
Barrage should be undertaken at priority.
• The remaining section of river Indus shall
be dovetailed till Arabian Sea in phases.
stage 1 for the province of Sindh in the shape
of Still Water Canal which includes following:
• Left Bank Outfall Drain (LBOD).
• Tidal Link Canal.
• Hybrid Model (West). This model is most
advantageous in the long term. It is the same
as “Hybrid Model (East)” till Kachi Canal.
Thereafter, Kachi Canal (500 kms) could be
connected to Pat Feeder Canal originating from
Guddu Barrage. The implementation stream
might drive the canals project to completion
in Balochistan. Thereafter, it is oriented
to it. If intelligently developed, it has the potential
to contribute towards national integration. The
federating partners need to understand that
developing Inland Water Transportation may
provide them with an excuse for backing out from
there rigid and irrational stands against water
regulation or building of major reservoirs.
Inland Waters is a 4th dimension of
transportation which will require deliberate
efforts on the part of government to develop
through public sector and then to lure in
of Inland Water Transportation in terms of
regulating the water channels and flood protection
outweigh the investment costs. Conception and
execution of projects like “Neelum-Jhelum Power
Project”, the inertia of thoughts should transcend
to determination of implementation. Even the
temptation of partial success is worth taking the risk
of exploring this much needed futuristic dimension
of transportation.
NOTES

Following points are suggested in this
regards:
• Construction of suitable navigation
westwards and options to connect Pat Feeder
with Nal/Hingol/Dasht River may be seen. Thus
linking Ormara/Gwadar with Indus at Guddu
private sector with incentives.
Defence services will also accrue benefits from
1. Study carried out by Techno Consultant International (Pvt) and Royal
Haskoning DHV of Netherlands.
2.
3.
www.slideshare.net/canal-system-of-pakistan.
Annual Report 2015, Pakistan International Airlines.
4. Pakistan Railway Year Book 2015-2016.

heads like Attock, Taunsa and Sukkur
etc.
• Suitable engineering solutions shall
be applied and portions of Indus be
made navigable for a final long term
solution. A “One Go” project should be
avoided as learnt from past.
• Hybrid Model (East). River Indus be used from
Attock to Chashma and further to Jinah Barrage;
the canal network be utilised there onwards:
• Since the segment from Jinnah Barrage to
Taunsa Headworks is rough in high water
season, following two options are suggested
in the order of priority:
• Building a “still water canal” parallel
to River Indus from Jinnah Barrage to
Taunsa Headworks. This is a long term
solution and will address multiple
issues of the area, including agriculture
and flood control.
• Adopt Thall Canal for river navigation.
This would also require engineering
solutions of low bridges. It is
comparatively a cheaper solution but
with less dividends.
• Adoption of Chasma Right Bank
Canal (CRBC) may also be evaluated
for engineering and financial
implications.
• From Taunsa Barrage, adopted canal may be
connected to Kachi Canal, which is running
along River Indus.
• From Guddu Barrage, Ghotki Feeder could be
utilised running in the east of River Indus till
Sukkur Barrage.
• From Sukkur Barrage, Nara Canal may be
utilised till Jamrao Canal.
• Jamrao Canal be further connected to the
segment of National Drainage Programme
Barrage. In case of nonexistent water streams, Inland Water Transportation, in terms of a new
5. www.nha.gov.pk
6. IWTD and Institute of Policy Studies, Islamabad.
making a new canal (where so required) will avenue providing an additional artery for movement 7. Manager Operations, Inland Water Transportation Corporation, Punjab,
Pakistan.
still be a cheaper solution than construction of of logistics during peace and war. The dividends
road and maintaining it in long term.
• Link Canal Based Model. The existing
infrastructure of rivers/irrigation canals may
Inland Shipping – Port of Rotterdam
be utilised for IWT network that involves least
effort and investment. Canals be given priority
over rivers due to defined banks. In canals,
Linked Canals be given priority over normal
canal systems owing to the probability of
water.
• Rasul-Qadirabad Link Canal.
• Qadirabad-Baloki Link Canal.
• Baloki-Sulemanki Link Canal.
• Chashma-Jhelum Link Canal.
• Taunsa Punjnad Link Canal.
• Sidnai-Mailsi-Bahawal Link Canal.
• Trimmu-Sidnai Link Canal.
• Marala-Ravi Link Canal.
• To make the complete circuit, portion of rivers
shall also be incorporated by carrying out water
regulation at respective head works/barrages
by stopping the water of irrigation canals in
case of need.
Conclusion
There is indeed an immediate requirement to exploit
the gifted water resource potential of Pakistan, to
optimise national logistics and transport sectors.
It would be unwise to find refuge in outdated
arguments like “lack of river waters”, “low bridges”,
“regulation capabilities” and “provincial rivalries”
etc. We need to plan ahead, break the inertia
of thoughts and seize the opportunity of CPEC.
Lack of foresight, political rifts and hard stands
on water regulation has impeded our progress
and development in this regard. Inland Water
Transportation is likely to add a new dimension

68 Green Book 2017 Green Book 2017 69

 PAKISTAN ARMY PAKISTAN ARMY

Biological
Prevention &
Abstract:This paper examines the lack of verification mechanism of BWC and its implications on
Response to international security. Moreover, the significance of effective national implementation of the Convention
and strengthening of WHO is also discussed in the context of guarding against infectious diseases and
infectious hostile use of biological agents. The implications of scientific and technological developments on the

Weapons
scope of the Convention and national / international implementation measures are also analysed. The
Diseases and research highlights Pakistan’s legislative, regulatory and administrative measures that demonstrate the
Hostile use of seriousness with which Pakistan undertakes its national implementation of the BWC, thereby contributing
to international peace and security. Finally, it concludes with salient findings and recommendations
Biological Agents regarding effective and comprehensive national implementation measures, significance of international
cooperation, raising of awareness of stakeholders, and strengthening of BWC and WHO.

I
Key Words: Infectious diseases, WHO, IHR, Biological Weapons Convention, Deterrence, Quarantine

Convention
ommon development, Inclusive participation, Shared destiny, Win-win Cooperation.

Brigadier Dr. Naeem Haider, SI (M)
The Officer is serving in Pakistan Army
nfectious diseases are a serious threat
to public health, economy and security.
The outgoing US President Barak Obama
appealed at the United Nations General
Assembly in 2011, to “…come together to
prevent, and detect, and fight every kind of
biological danger – whether it’s a pandemic like
H1N1, or a terrorist threat, or a treatable disease.”1 He
reiterated this call subsequently at the Global Health
Security Agenda Summit in 2014 by saying that “We
have to change our mindsets and start thinking about
biological threats as the security threats that they
are – in addition to being humanitarian threats and
economic threats. We have to bring the same level
of commitment and focus to these challenges as we
do when meeting around more traditional security
issues.”2 Security of a State can be threatened by
accidental release of biological agents,3 deliberate
use of Biological Weapons, or naturally occurring
infectious diseases. Therefore, there is strong
linkage between disease and security.4
Today’s world is experiencing incredible
advancement in technology, transportation and
communication. While, these developments
support globalization efforts, they also contribute
to the spread of diseases. Other major factors are
uncontrolled migrations and movements due to
open and uncontrolled borders in many parts of the
world. The outbreak of diseases can threaten the
stability of nations and even regions, particularly
for weak States.5 Moreover, due to immense
developments and widespread diffusion in the field
of science and technology, the deliberate use of a
biological agent for mass destruction or disruption

70 Green Book 2017 Green Book 2017 71

 PAKISTAN ARMY
is increasingly becoming possible.6 Though, the
BWC specifies strict national obligations and outlaw
the development and use of Biological Weapons,
its handicap is the lack of an effective verification
mechanism.7
This paper examines the lack of verification
mechanism of the BWC, and its implications on
international security and monitoring national
compliance measures. Moreover, the significance of
effective national implementation of the Convention
and strengthening the WHO is also discussed,
in the context of guarding against infectious
diseases and hostile use of biological agents. To
understand the significance of the subject and
the consequences caused by infectious diseases,
selected international health crises are also covered.
The implications of scientific and technological
developments on the scope of the Convention
and national/ international implementation
measures are also analysed in this research. This
study highlights Pakistan’s legislative, regulatory
and administrative measures that demonstrate
the seriousness with which Pakistan undertakes
its national implementation of the BWC, thereby
contributing to international peace and security.
The paper identifies future challenges that Pakistan
has to address with regard to health of humans,
animals and plants; and national capacity building
for effectively responding to any bio-accident/
incident. Finally, this paper concludes with salient
findings and recommendations regarding effective
and comprehensive national implementation
measures, significance of international
cooperation, awareness raising of stakeholders,
and strengthening of BWC and WHO, with a view
72 Green Book 2017
to safeguard against infectious diseases and hostile
use of biological agents.
Health Crisis of International Concern
To understand how infectious diseases can cause
immense humanitarian, economic, psychological
and societal harm, some telling examples include:-
• Ebola Virus. In December, 2013, a boy in
Guinea, who had been playing with bats
became sick and died after few days, from
subsequently determined Ebola virus disease.
Within two years, this disease spread to seven
states; infected almost 28,637 people and killed
more than 11,315 of them.8 The economic cost
of Ebola in Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia
was approximately $2.2 Billion9 along with
huge societal implications. This disease could
have caused global catastrophe, had it not been
contained in Nigeria.
• Zika Virus. In February, 2016, the WHO declared
Zika virus an emergency of international
concern. This disease spread through more
than 26 countries in the Americas.10 While most
infected people developed symptoms of mild
illness, this disease is also linked with potential
neurological diseases and devastating birth
defects. Noting the alarming consequences,
huge efforts were launched to contain Zika
virus and mitigate its consequences.
• MERS. MERS is a respiratory disease that was
first identified in Saudi Arabia in 2012. 11 It
has 36 per cent mortality rate. This disease
spread through the Middle East, and in June
2015 a traveler brought MERS to South Korea.
Consequently, approximately 16,000 people
Kuwaiti civil defence forces rehearse contingency plans
for a biological weapons attack
were placed in quarantine and the economic
cost was approximately $ 1 Billion.12
Challenges to International Health
The international community requires strong global
governance of diseases. The outbreak of infectious
disease, whether it is deliberate, accidental or
natural is a national security challenge. Growing
international trade, travels, urbanization and
inadequate public health infrastructure facilitate
the rapid and wide spread of infectious diseases.
Usually WHO responds to the outbreak of major
infectious diseases, but it lacks requisite resources,
especially financial.13 Moreover, the working
relationship of WHO with member states also needs
more streamlining and improvement.14 The World
Health Assembly adopted the revised International
Health Regulations (IHR) in 2005. The IHR created
a framework for international coordination and
cooperation for launching an effective multilateral
response. It also obligates States to develop
core national capacities for detection, reporting
and responding to public health emergencies.15
Regretfully, almost 70 per cent of States have not yet
developed their core capacities. The effectiveness of
IHR framework is dependent on national capacities
as well as the level of cooperation amongst States.
PAKISTAN ARMY
Both these areas require definite improvement
especially in the developing world. It was due to
such inadequacies that WHO could not launch
effective response to Ebola Outbreak in 2013.
Climate change is another serious threat
to global public health, economy and natural
ecosystem.16 The natural ecosystem contributes
to fight off infections; and there is delicate
interconnectedness amongst humans, animals and
plants. Climate change has implications for food
security and clean water availability. It is widening
the reach of vector borne diseases such as Dengue
and Zika. Thus, changes in the natural ecosystem
will continue to impact human health, agriculture,
plants and societies.17
Since the world is highly dynamic and
interlinked, disease outbreaks, climate change,
weak governance, threat of misuse of biological
agents, can interconnect with relative ease and
multiply in a number of ways. Another dimension
of these intersecting threats is that they can cascade
the consequences. The disease causing microbes
are constantly evolving; and many diseases are
transferable from animals to humans. The main
cause for the spread and emergence of new diseases
is the interaction amongst humans, animals and
the environment.18 This necessitates coordinated
Green Book 2017 73
 PAKISTAN ARMY
United States President Barack Obama chairs United
Nations Security Council meeting at U.N. Headquarters
in New York, September 24, 2009
efforts of experts such as epidemiologists,
veterinarians and disease ecologists.
Need for Surveillance of Communicable Diseases
There is a dire need to effectively establish national
and global surveillance of communicable diseases.
This realisation is important and in 1995, this
concern was strongly expressed in the World Health
Assembly, urging member states to strengthen their
surveillance for infectious diseases. WHO is striving
to create a global surveillance system that links
national, regional and international medical centres
and laboratories. This network would involve 191
member states of WHO and several related regional
initiatives. The revised International Health
Regulations (IHR) of the WHO are legally binding
and obligates states to develop their national
capacities and promptly notify diseases of global
significance.19 This network, along with Biological
Weapons Convention is mandated to monitor and
report the intentional use of pathogenic microbes.
With regard to health security, the term
globalisation implies that outbreak of an infectious
disease may spread to other States in a matter of
days and weeks. While diseases will emerge and
re-emerge, infectious diseases are preventable. The
international pandemic is characterized by its large
scope and breadth of its impact. The surveillance
capability will enable policy makers and crisis
managers to timely forecast the course, pattern and
74 Green Book 2017
intensity of communicable diseases. Therefore,
for any response, the most critical variable will
be time. It will also facilitate concerted and
coordinated international effort. If a pandemic is
immediately recognised, the States will be able to
launch a coordinated response for its containment.
On the contrary if precious time is lost, it will cause
immense human and economic loss along with
sufferings and mass disruption. Therefore, States
must develop effective prevention, preparedness
and response capabilities. International
cooperation can contribute to capacity building of
developing States, as needed.
The Scope of BWC
The Convention on the Prohibition of the
Development, Production and Stockpiling of
Bacteriological (Biological) and Toxin Weapons
and on their Destruction (BWC) was opened for
signature on 10 April 1972, and it entered into
force on 26 March 1975.The BWC currently has
177 States parties and six signatory states.20 The
term Biological Weapon is defined by the BWC as
“microbial or other biological agents, or toxins21
whatever their origin or method of production, of
types and in quantities that have no justification
for prophylactic, protective or other peaceful
purposes.”22 The BWC prohibits “the development,
production, stockpiling or acquisition by other
means, or retention of microbial or other biological
agents or toxins, as well as of weapons, equipment
or means of delivery designed to use such agents or
toxins for hostile purposes or in armed conflict.”23
BWC and Verification Options
The BWC is an international regime with no
verification mechanism or an implementing
organisation. Hence, BWC has no procedures to
compel compliance of its States Parties. At the
BWC forums, the Non-Aligned Movement (NAM)
States favour strengthening the Convention with
a multilaterally negotiated, non-discriminatory
and legally binding compliance and verification
mechanism. The US is however, not favourably
disposed to this proposal, and insists that such
arrangement would give a false sense of security
where verification mechanism can be misused.
Nonetheless, a weak arrangement does exist in
the BWC, i.e. in case of compliance concerns,
the BWC gives the right and obligation to States
Parties to consult and cooperate both bilaterally
and multilaterally. It also permits States to lodge
complaints with the UN Security Council, if a State
believes that another State is in contravention of
the Convention.24 Though UN Security Council
has the authority to investigate such charges, such
investigations has never taken place due to huge
political costs, and UNSC voting rules that includes
use of veto power.
National Obligations under BWC
Major obligations under BWC are as following:
• Never, under any circumstances to acquire or
retain biological weapons.25
• To destroy or divert to peaceful purposes
biological weapons and associated resources
prior to joining.26
• Not to transfer, or in any way assist, encourage
or induce anyone else to acquire or retain
biological weapons.27
• BWC national implementation through
legislations and regulations.28
• Consult bilaterally/ multilaterally to solve any
BWC compliance concerns.29
• Request the UN Security Council to investigate
alleged breaches of the BWC and to comply
with its subsequent decisions.30
• Assist States, which have been exposed to a
danger as a result of a violation of the BWC. 31
• Do all of the above in a way that encourages
the peaceful uses of biological science and
technology.32
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National Legislative Requirements
States must designate a governmental authority
for the national implementation of the BWC as
these would require BWC national implementation
legislation and related rules and regulations
for adopting penal provisions for deterrence
purpose. Through these instruments, States have
to criminalize the “development, production,
manufacture, stockpiling, acquisition, retention,
transfer and use of Biological Weapons.” Moreover,
States have to adopt bio-safety and bio-security
measures for the production, transport, storage and
use of harmful pathogens.
The governmental authorities have to
ensure adequate safety and security measures for
laboratories, foolproof procedures for licensing,
and adopt import and export control measures
for the controlled/ listed items. Moreover, the
governmental authorities have to ensure effective
oversight over transfers. The legislative and
regulatory measures must help in monitoring
research and other scientific activities and to punish
violators of the Convention. Ideally the national
legislations ought to have an extra-territorial
jurisdiction and should facilitate international
cooperation and assistance. The salient advantages
of effective national implementation measures are
as following:
• States can investigate and punish Non-
State Actors for any offences/ acts related to
biological agents and toxins.
• States can supervise transfers of biological
agents and toxins.
• Public health and national security will be
enhanced.
• Potential investors will feel safe and secure
about their investment.
• States will fulfil their national obligations
under UNSC Resolution 1540 and the BWC. This
will also contribute to national standing when
the national indexes are formulated by 1540
Committee.
Developments in Science and Technology:
Implications for BWC
Developments in Science &Technology (S&T) can
have significant implications for the BWC. One
major implication could be on the scope of the
Convention. The S& T developments may result in
development of new biological and toxin agents,
and new production technology that may go beyond
the scope of the Convention. S&T developments can
also have implications for the national regulatory
systems, nonproliferation measures, international
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cooperation and investigation of alleged use by
the UN Secretary General Mechanism.33 Various
experiments take place just for commercial
interests that may violate the norms of research
and experimentation. It is therefore, imperative
that relevant industry and sensitive laboratories in
both public and private sector must be regulated by
the respective governments. Therefore, the BWC
national and international governing bodies need
to focus on safety and security measures and keep
the scientific community engaged in measures
that would reduce the risks of misuse of biological
sciences.
Both scientific and policy experts need to
work closely to mutually and correctly understand
the nature and implications of potential
developments in life sciences. The scientific and
policy perspective put together could contribute to
safety and security, and also permit international
cooperation. Another issue closely associated with
S&T developments is the dual-use phenomenon.
The knowledge, technology and tools of life
sciences have intrinsic dual-use characteristics.
Dual-use phenomenon can carry serious risks for
nonproliferation efforts, public health and national
security.34 Therefore, it is particularly important
for the scientific community to be aware of dual-
use phenomenon, national and international
obligations regarding life sciences, and the norms
of responsible and appropriate scientific conduct.
At the BWC forum, the developing countries
highlight that the dual-use nature of emerging
technologies in itself should not be used as a pretext
for proscribing or restricting their availability to
developing countries for peaceful purposes. This
challenges the difference of perception in the
industrialized West that views BWC primarily as
a security agreement and perceives its economic
aspects as secondary. On the contrary, developing
countries argue that the security benefits and trade
and technology should get equal importance.
Pakistan’s Legislative, Regulatory and
Administrative Measures
Pakistan ratified Biological Weapons
Convention (BWC) on 25th September 1974 and is
committed to strengthening this regime through
national implementation measures. It encourages a
multilaterally negotiated, non- discriminatory and
cooperative effort on all issues pertaining to BTWC.
Pakistan emphasizes effective implementation
of the Convention, including establishment of a
compliance regime and verification mechanism.
Talking necessary step in conformity with BWC and
76 Green Book 2017
International Health Regulations (IHR) 2005 of the
WHO, Pakistan has introduced stringent bio-safety
and bio-security measures. Pakistan has taken
adequate legislative, regulatory and administrative
measures for promoting the object and purpose of
the Convention.
Pakistan’s Legislative and Regulatory Instruments
Pakistan’s national legislative and regulatory
framework includes basic legislations and bio-
safety associated rules and guidelines.35 Basic
legislations comprise Pakistan Export Control
Act-2004,36 Anti-Terrorism Act-1997,37 Drugs Act-
1976 and Rules,38 Plant Quarantine Act-1976
and Rules,39 Animal Quarantine Act-197940 and
Rules, and Pakistan Penal Code.41 Export Control
Act- 2004 includes a comprehensive coverage of
export, re-export, transit and transshipment of
biological materials. The Strategic Export Control
Division regulates strategic exports according to
a National Control List revised in 2015. Pakistan
Bio-safety Rules 2005, Bio-safety Guidelines 2005,
Plant Quarantine Act 1976 and Animal Quarantine
Act 1979 deal with safety aspects of bio- related
materials and facilities.
Pakistan’s Administrative Measures
They include the following:-
• National Point of Contact. National Point of
Contact on BWC has been established at the
Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
• Inter Agency Working Group. An Inter-
Agency Working Group involving policy experts
and life scientists from public and private
sector provides inter-agency expert advice to
the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.42
• Education and Awareness Raising.
Awareness enhancement for researchers,
academia and Law Enforcement Agencies on
bio- risk management, export control and
dual-use of biological materials is an ongoing
process at various levels through seminars,
conferences, etc.
• Oversight of biological Research Activities.
Monitoring and Implementation Mechanism of
National Bio- Safety Guidelines at Federal level
is based on three tiers; i.e. National Bio-safety
Committee, Technical Advisory Committee and
Institutional Bio-safety Committees.43
• National Bio- Safety Centre. Being a signatory
to Cartagena Protocol on Bio- safety, Pakistan
has established an implementation system
for the regulation of Genetically Modified
Organisms (GMOs) under Pakistan Bio- safety
Rules 2005 and National Bio- safety Guidelines
2005.44
• National Bioethics Committee. A Bioethics
Committee under the Pakistan Medical
Research Council (PMRC) is an advisory body
dealing with all aspects of bioethics in the
health sector in the country.45 All research
projects involving human subjects, including
the use of fetal material, embryos and tissues
wherever conducted are reviewed by the
Research Ethics Committee (REC) before
commencement of research.
• Code of Conduct for Life Scientists.
Guidelines on “Code of Conduct for Life
Scientists” were issued in 2010 to relevant
stakeholders for implementation. The
stakeholders are encouraged to customise their
codes according to their respective roles and
tasks, within the broad theme of “Science for
Humanity” as their fundamental objective.46
• Public Health Lab Network. A National
Strategic Framework for the establishment of
Public Health Laboratories Network (PHLN)
was launched in 2007.47 This Network generates
laboratories evidenced quick response,
complementing national and international
obligations under IHR 2005. It monitors trends
to establish disease patterns, undertake
mapping and identify populations at risk. The
network also helps identify health priorities
and specific needs.
Areas for Future Focus
Pakistan has a population of approximately 175
million. Major infectious diseases with high degree
of risk are either waterborne or food diseases that
include, inter alia, hepatitis, bacterial diarrhea and
typhoid fever. Other categories of prevalent risk
includes vector- borne diseases, like malaria and
dengue fever; rabies as a common animal contact
disease; and communicable diseases, like hepatitis,
tuberculosis, polio, measles, pandemic influenza
and malaria.48
There are two dedicated public health
laboratories in Pakistan. They are Laboratory of
Institute of Public Health Lahore49 and Public
Health Laboratories Division (PHLD) at the National
Institute of Health (NIH) Islamabad.50 Nutrition and
Drugs Control Division of NIH undertakes public
health testing of water, food and drugs. The PHLD
has excellent diagnostic labs; however, in view
of the large area and population of Pakistan, the
number of public health laboratories is quite limited
and needs to be enhanced. Moreover, Bio-Safety
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Level-3 (BSL-3) labs are also being developed for
better analysis and diagnosis.51 Field Epidemiology
Laboratory Training Programme (FELTP) is a highly
beneficial programme, which was started in 2006.
Medical professionals from all over the country
benefit from FELTP.52 This programme merits
further strengthening through provision of more
resources and better intake of students. 53
To effectively detect and respond to
infectious diseases, National Institute of Health
(NIH) Pakistan designed and implemented Disease
Early Warning System (DEWS) with assistance
from the WHO. This major national surveillance
system was implemented in response to floods
of 2010. Its system has evolved very well with the
passage of time and now covers approximately
57 per cent of population. DEWS collects data on
weekly basis on various syndromes from over 2800
health facilities and undertakes alert reporting, and
issues guidelines and precautionary measures for
various health issues. After the 18th Constitutional
Amendment, the subject of health has become
mainly provincial responsibility. Therefore, while
the provinces can consider developing DEWS in
respective provinces, the real challenge for them
would be to create a compatible system to handle
this responsibility including awareness and
development of human resource expertise.54
Pakistan’s national cattle herd has 27.3
million buffalos, 29.6 million cattle, 53.8 million
goats, 26.5 million sheep, 00.9 million camel and
00.3 million horses.55 Moreover, there is a large
poultry sector. The size of Pakistan’s live-stock
surveillance system, high rate of infectious diseases,
inadequate institutional capabilities and moderate
veterinary extension services to farmers, are some
of the major challenges, which have considerable
economic implications for the farmers. In Pakistan,
mostly animal diseases are controlled through
vaccination. The vaccines against animal diseases
are produced by four Veterinary Research Institutes
(VRI).56 However, because of limited numbers and
capacity of the VRIs the vaccination covers only
20-25 per cent animals. Therefore, establishment
of VRIs in Balochistan, Gilgit Baltistan and Azad
Kashmir are an important need.57
In Pakistan, private sector bio-industry is
in developing stage, while many programmes are
on-going for agricultural development and human
health. Pharmaceutical industries are undertaking
joint ventures with Argentina, the Netherlands
and China. The private sector is following best
international standards and is making huge
investments in the agriculture sector. Moreover,
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 PAKISTAN ARMY
bottlenecks in the development of agricultural
biotechnology were removed through institution of
Bio-Safety Rules and Guidelines, enacted in 2005.
Now the industry and organisations in private and
public sector have to seek approval from National
Bio-Safety Committee and implement Bio-Safety
Guidelines prior to commercialising products that
are based on recombinant DNA technology.58 These
measures would enhance international confidence,
on which Pakistan must capitalise. Moreover,
Pakistan is developing the capacity of first responders
for effective response to any bio-accident/incident.
The National Disaster Management Authority
(NDMA) could train volunteers from first responders
for effective response to any bio- accident/ incident.
Pakistan’s private and public sector can actively
seek international cooperation; procure requisite
equipment, develop human resource and state-
of-the-art analytical laboratories for effectively
preventing and responding to any bio-accident/
incident.
Conclusion and Way Forward
Public health challenges are inevitable anywhere in
the world as new diseases tend to emerge frequently.
Climatic changes also facilitate movement of
diseases to new places. The canvas of public health
emergencies is so wide that governments have to
resort to multi-sectoral and multilateral responses.
An increasing number of states are acknowledging
the relationship between disease and security, and
establishing effective national and international
governance structure for prevention, preparedness
and response. The potential scale and scope of
the threat to life, security and economic interests
from infectious diseases is significant. Therefore,
States must accord due priority, allocate requisite
resources and create effective governance structures
for infectious diseases.
The WHO is mandated for coordinating
and responding to public health emergencies.
Therefore, WHO must address its current issues
such as working relationship with member
states and adequacy of resources, so that it can
launch effective and timely response to any
public health emergency. In this regard, states
must build their individual capacities, which will
directly contribute to global health governance
and response. Furthermore, the international
disease surveillance system requires a definite
improvement. This surveillance system will enable
WHO and international community to launch timely
response, which in turn will significantly contribute
to locally containing an infectious outbreak,
78 Green Book 2017
thereby preventing it from becoming a pandemic
of regional or global proportion. The WHO must
have requisite experts, resources, equipment,
funds, tested procedures and infrastructure for
effectively facilitating management of public health
emergencies.
National implementation of BWC is similarly
of immense importance, as States have varying
capacities. In particular, the national capacity of
developing States requires further enhancement,
for which international cooperation and assistance
should remain available. This cooperation may
include human resource development, establishing
biological research centres, provision of latest
technology, etc. This cooperation would enable
developing States to promptly detect and effectively
respond to infectious diseases. This way the
national capabilities for prevention, preparedness,
and crisis management and mitigation efforts can
increase.
Infectious diseases are serious threats to
national, regional, and international security. Both
the probability and consequences of this threat are
growing. Disease outbreaks will exploit weaknesses
in the health care systems. Diseases will evolve
and their speed of spread can further increase
due to growing globalisation, urbanisation, opens
borders and climatic changes. As there is strong
linkage between disease and security, therefore,
every developing State must securitise public
health needs, because this investment is essential.
States must build their national capacities, involve
scientific community and cooperate internationally
for effective prevention, response and mitigation
efforts. Creating better understanding within the
scientific community, academia, civil society and
governmental authorities regarding obligations
under BWC and WHO, strengthening national
capacity against infectious diseases and safe and
secure handling of biological agents and toxins
should be priority national objectives.
The developing countries must develop
public health care capacity and infrastructure for
diagnosing and treating infectious diseases. In
this regard, international cooperation under BWC
between developed and developing States can prove
beneficial. This cooperation will enable developing
States to make effective and commercially available
drugs and vaccines. The developed states must
not use the potential dual-use nature of new
technologies as a pretext to restrict their availability
and provision to developing states.59 In the same
context, appropriately designed and effectively
implemented national controls under BWC should
address proliferation concerns but should not
hinder economic and scientific developments of
developing states.
Pakistan has made significant efforts for
regulating life sciences and related technologies.
However, rapid advances in biological sciences have
opened up new avenues for peaceful application of
bio-technology. This necessitates focused national
efforts and international cooperation for the
betterment of humans, animals, plants and the
environment.60 In view of Pakistan’s geography and
population, international cooperation can be used
for developing biological sciences and technology;
NOTES
1. “Remarks by President Obama to the United Nations General Assembly”, New
2.
York, The White House, Office of the Press Secretary, 21 September 2011.
“Remarks by the President at Global Health Security Agenda”, The White
House, 26 September 2014.
3. WHO defined biological agents “as those that depend for their effects
on multiplication within the target organism and are intended for use in
war to cause disease or death in humans, animals or plants; they may be
transmissible or non-transmissible.” WHO 1970 report.
4. Cary Cecchine, Melinda Moore, “Infectious Disease and National Security”,
Prepared for the Office of the Secretary of Defence, National Defence Research
Institute (RAND), (Rand Publication: 2006), p.23. Available at www.rand.org.
5. Stewart Patrick, “Weak States and Global Threats: Assessing Evidence of
“Spillovers”, Centre for Global Development, Working Paper No. 73, 2006,
p.23.
6. Thomas V. Inglesby, Tara O. Tool, and Donald A Henderson, “Preventing the
Use of Biological Weapons: Improving Response Should Prevention Fail,”
7.
Clinical Infectious Diseases, Vol.30, No.6, p.927.
Andras Kos, “European Union Statement”, First Preparatory Committee
for the Eighth Review Conference of the Biological and Toxin Weapons
Convention, Geneva, 26-27 April 2016.
8. BBC News, Ebola: Mapping the Outbreak, 14 January 2016.
9. “Cost of the Ebola Outbreak,”Centre for Disease Control and Prevention, 2014.
United Nations High-level Panel of the Global Response to Health Crises.
Protecting Humanity from Future Health Crises. 25 January 2016. P.27.
10. Al Jazeera News, “Zika Virus to Spread to Much of Americas”, 26 January 2016.
11. Hannah Nichols, “What is MERS? What You Need to Know”, Medical News
12.
Today, 22 September 2015.
Alastair Gale, “South Korea MERS Outbreak is Over, Government Says”, The
Wall Street Journal, 27 July 2015.
13. WHO.“Overview of Reform Implementation,” A69/4, 11 March 2016.
14. US Department of State, Report on International Security and Foreign Policy
15.
Implications of Overseas Disease Outbreaks, 23 May 2016, p.23.
World Health Assembly, Revision of the International Health Regulations
(2005), May 23, 2005.
16. A.J. McMichael, D.H. Campbell- Lendrum, C.F. Corvalan, (et al), Climate
Change and Human Health: Risks and Response, World Health Organisation,
17.
Geneva, 2003, p.10.
“Natural Systems in Changing Climate,”Science Magazine, 2 August 2013.
18. US, Department of State, Report on International Security and Foreign Policy
Implications of Overseas Disease Outbreak, 23 May 2016, p.26.
19. WHO, Global Infectious Disease Surveillance, WHO Media Centre, 2016.
20.
Available at www.who.int.
“About the BWC”, United Nations Office at Geneva, updated on 11 November
2016, Available at www.unog.ch.
21. Toxins are poisonous products of organisms; they are non-living and cannot
reproduce themselves, unlike biological agents.
22. BWC, Article- 1.Daniel Feakes, “Understanding Biological Weapons and an
Introduction to the BWC”, United Nations Office for Disarmament Affairs,
Available at www.pgaction .org.Accessed on 6 December 2016.
23. BWC, Article-1.
24. Daniel Herner, “BWC Parties Prepare for Review Meeting”, Arms Control
25.
Association, January/ February 2016. Available at www.armscontrol.org.
BWC, Article-1.
26. BWC, Article-2.
27. BWC, Article-3.
28. BWC, Article-4.
29.
30.
BWC, Article-5
BWC, Article-6
PAKISTAN ARMY
as well as response mechanisms such as equipment
and related training, particularly in the area of
capacity-building for protection against misuse of
biological agents. Moreover, Pakistan ought to work
regularly on awareness raising through training
workshops and courses for laboratory managers,
bio-safety and bio-security professionals and
bio-risk managers/researchers. The fulfillment
of our international obligations under BWC and
the establishment and maintenance of effective
bioethics, bio-safety and bio-security standards
as well as focus on dual-use education serve not
only Pakistan’s vital interests but also contribute
towards enhancing international confidence.
31. BWC, Article-7
32. BWC, Article-8
33. National Research Council (US) Committee on Trends in Science and
Technology Relevant to the Biological Weapons Convention: An International
Workshop, Life Sciences and Related Fields: Trends Relevant to the Biological
Weapons Convention, Washington (DC): National Academies Press (US); 2011.
Article 5.2.1,S&T and the Scope of the BWC. Available at www.ncbi.nlm.nih.
34.
gov.
Ibid.
35. Pakistan, Bio-Safety Rules, 2005, S.R.O. (1) 336 (1) 2005, Islamabad, 26 Apr
2005.
36. Pakistan, Export Control on Goods, Technologies, Material and Equipment
Related to Nuclear and Biological Weapons and their Delivery System Act,
2004, Registered No. 302/ L-7646, Islamabad, 27 September 2004.
37. Pakistan, The Anti-Terrorism Act 1997, Act No. XXVII, 20 August 1997.
38. Pakistan, The Drugs Act, 1976, No. XXXI, 11 May 1976.
39. Pakistan Plant Quarantine Act, 1976 and Plant Quarantine Rules, 1976
40. Pakistan Animal Quarantine (Import and Export of Animal and Animal
Products) Ordinance, 1979, 17 September 1979.
41. Pakistan Penal Code, (Act XLV of 1860) Act, 6 October 1860.
42. Statement by Ambassador Zameer Akram, Permanent Representative of
Pakistan to the United Nations at the Seventh Review Conference of BWC,
43.
Geneva, 6 December 2011.
Pakistan Environmental Protection Agency, National Bio-Safety Centre
Directorate. Available at environment.gov.pk.
44. Ibid.
45. Pakistan Bio-ethics Committee. Available at nbcpakistan.org.pk.
46. Ambassador Zameer Akram Statement to the Seventh BWC Review
Conference, 6 December 2011, Geneva.
47. National Institute of Health, Islamabad, Public Health Laboratories. Available
at www.nih.org.pk.
48. “Pakistan Major Infectious Diseases”, Available at www.indexmundi.com.
49.
50.
www.iph.punjab.gov.pk.
National Institute of Health, Islamabad, Public Health Laboratories. Available
at www.nih.org.pk.
51. National Institute of Health, Islamabad, Public Health Laboratories. Available
at www.nih.org.pk.
52. National Institute of Health, Islamabad, Public Health Laboratories. Available
at www.nih.org.pk.
53. Discussion with Dr. Riaz Qamar, General Manager Chem- Bio Defence
Directorate, DESTO, 9 January 2017, Rawalpindi.
54. Discussion with Mr. Khalid Banuri, Director General Arms Control and
Disarmament Affairs (ACDA) Strategic Plans Division (SPD), who is also a
Member Inter-Agency Working Group on Life Sciences, of Ministry of Foreign
Affairs, 11 January 2017, Rawalpindi.
55. Pakistan, Bureau of Statistics, Livestock Population, 2016, p.1. Available at
www.pbs.gov.pk.
56. Pakistan, EU, United Nations Development Programme, Trade Related
Technical Assistance (TARA II) Programme, Baseline Information for OIE- PVS
Evaluation of Pakistan. Available at ww.trtapakistan.org.
57. Discussion with Dr. Riaz Qamar, General Manager Chem Bio Defence
Directorate, 9 January 2017.
58. Pakistan Environmental Protection Agency, Composition and Functions of
Committees (NBC,TAC, IBC). Available at environment.gov.pk.
59. Discussion with Mr. Khalid Banuri, Director General ACDA, SPD, who is also
a Member Inter-Agency Working Group on Life Sciences of the Ministry of
Foreign Affairs, 5 January 2017, Rawalpindi.
60. Ibid
Green Book 2017 79

PAKISTAN ARMY
Security
Abstract: In this article, the author investigates
the genesis of Terrorism which emanates from
extremism and is an outcome of socio-economic
& Counter Terrorism
injustice. The article highlights that Terrorist
entities follow non-traditional structures. Speaking
about asymmetric conflicts, political implications
of employing regular forces and their exorbitant
Challenges
expenditures, the article sheds light on proxy
wars. It draws its connections with Indo-Pak
situation and relevance of Afghanistan in this
context. Talking about the diplomatic approach to
balancing options, it also reviews Pakistan’s fight
Pak, Iran, Middle East
against terrorism and proposes a dialogue based
solution to the issue along with a range of other
viable recommendations.
Key Words: Security, Counter-terrorism, Proxy
wars, Pakistan, Afghanistan, India, Foreign policy,
Peace, War, Internal Security, Selective Justice.
Lieutenant General Naeem Khalid Lodhi, HI
(M), (Retired) has served as Secretary Defence
and later as CEO and MD of a leading Corpo-
rate Organization. He is presently a freelance
writer and an Eminent Defence Analyst
80 Green Book 2017
T
PAKISTAN ARMY
errorism emanates from extremism,
which normally is an outcome of lack of
political, social and economic justice,
sense of deprivation and exploitation
of these cleavages by adversaries.
The terrorist entities so formed are
not strictly hierarchical organisations, nor do
they rigidly follow any central leadership or
commands. Most of them are up for sale, at
times in franchise format. So these troubles could
be homegrown, foreign sponsored or combination
which is mostly the case. It is this nature of these
creatures that we find at times, the same countries
sponsoring and fighting terrorists’ outfits at a
time, occasionally with same names. Now before
we embark upon findings a panacea for this very
complicated, but potent hydra with multiple heads
and reincarnation abilities, we need to scan the
genesis of this monster.
Green Book 2017 81
 PAKISTAN ARMY
Quite some time back when a political
party with religious leanings won elections in
Algeria, they were kept away from power. Iraq was
invaded giving a false premise, Sudan was divided
into two and East Timur was carved out because
some ethnic/religious groups reportedly were
being persecuted. But the continued oppression of
Kashmiris and Palestinians goes unnoticed by the
world conscience.
When brotherhood party wins elections
in Egypt, they are not deemed worthy of forming
their government. The Qaddafi of Libya committed
the sin of challenging the tyranny of petro-dollars.
But an array of monarches elsewhere, towing the
line, face no threat of imposition of democracy.
Afghanistan has been converted into ashes in so
called hot pursuit of Al Qaeda, Syria is battered into
nearly a non-entity and Yemen as a country is just
on paper maps.
In this backdrop the emergence of
counter forces, mostly irregular, was just but
natural, and countries who had grudges against
the sole super power, and could not face them
overtly, found good opportunity to align with
few terrorist outfits.
But this was not all. Asymmetric nature
of conflicts, political implications of employing
regular forces and their exorbitant expenditures,
gave further rise to proxy wars. Thus raising or
abetting militias and irregular forces and employing
them liberally by some very civilised countries has
become a norm rather than exception. Add to this
landscape the treachery of information operations,
false flag actions and media manipulations, and we
find ourselves confronted with herculean task, that
is telling on the resources of even well governed,
economically strong countries, and much more
difficult to be tackled by misgoverned and weak
countries.
Focusing closer in the region and we face a
comical situation:-
82 Green Book 2017
• We are allies of US but Indo-US nexus defies all
other relations.
• India vows to teach us a lessons, and attack
comes from Afghan side.
• We are forging on alliance with China – Russia-
Turkey, with Iran a natural member of this
bloc, but NOC given to General Raheel Sharif to
head a loosely organised IMAT (Islamic Military
Alliance against Terrorism) with clear anti Iran
ambitions and openly under US tutelage.
• We are under a heavy burden of debt provided
by international monetary institutions with
main control of US, but aspire to benefit from
China Centric CPEC, that would definitely be an
eye sore for Americans.
• We do understand that acme of diplomacy lie
in multilateral approach but the balancing act
must be seen credible. In our exuberance to gain
from all sides let us hope and pray we do not
lose all glimmers of bright future. Diplomacy
has its limitations as has politics and military
strategy, that is why only combination works.
• If we look at the situations of Syria, Iraq,
Yemen, Afghanistan and Kashmir and try to
gauge mood of stake holders it resembles a
spectre where in an arena several blind boxers
are hitting out at each other without any aim
and objectives; and referees (US, Russia, UN
etc) instead of putting a stop to this fight are
shouting ‘box on’, as they need to perpetuate
these proxies for their own interests.
Having understood the genesis of terrorism (a
very complicated socio-economic & politico-mil
phenomenon) let us scan the prospects of fighting
it out successfully, by ME, Iran & Pakistan.
Middle East monarchies are in a good
position to fight out this menace due to rich
resources, absence of large scale deprivation,
strict implementation of laws, due to nature of
regimes, and last but not the least, well aligned
with the dominant super power. Exceptions
are Iraq, Libya and Syria; and their vows can be
“Pakistani policewomen demonstrate
their skills during a special elite police
training course at a police training centre
in Nowshera, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa”
attributed to imposition of democracy, falling in anti-
American Camp and destruction of stable regimes.
Emergence of multiple independent zones, division
of Syria, Iraq & Yamen seems to be on the horizon.
So the wars going on in these countries are purely
politico-mil struggles with terrorism only as a tool
of fighting. Thus this fire cannot be extinguished
by anti-terror forces, it can only be controlled
through good politics and diplomacy, most likely
resulting into footholds of new emerging political
reality in the shape of Russian, Chinese and Iranian
alignment.
Iran on the other hand is not a victim of
large scale terrorist activities. They have wisely
and intelligently adopted a forward pre-emptive
strategy by fighting out proxy wars away from their
homeland, into Syria, Iraq, Yemen and elsewhere.
So Iran, may be seen as a part of the problem,
actually has devised a strategy to keep the problem
away at arm’s length through activity and not
passivity.
Coming closer home; we have allowed
things to happen for a long time, creating ideal
environment for nurturing extremism and terrorism
on grand scales. Lack of socio-economic justice,
illiteracy of mammoth proportions, absence of
health facilities and unequal eco opportunities,
combined to evolve into a combustible land and
people to get ignited and exploited by known and
unknown enemies for different motives.
Add to this spectre the pliable regimes and
inter institutional rivalries, resulting into disunity,
disharmony and confused foreign policy and nearly
stunted diplomacy.
The oft trumpeted success against
terrorism is mainly in the kinetic spectrum, and
there are hardly any mentionable successes in
the field of diplomacy, socio-eco indicators and
internal harmony. Surrounded by threats from all
around and facing multiple internal challenges,
PAKISTAN ARMY
our efforts to balance out between Iran and Saudi
Arabia, between US and China are actually likely
to antagonise all. With Indo-US nexus comfortably
perched in the neighbourhood and their firm
control on the Afghan Unity Govt, has dashed all
hopes of peace in the region. Our inability to make
the world aware of the atrocities perpetrated in
Indian Occupied Kashmir, and Hybrid War waged
by Indians in our hinterland, has left us alone to
fight out this multidimensional menace. So what
are we supposed to do?
• Ensure that all foreign backed outfits and
madrassas are closed and sealed immediately.
• Join whole heartedly the China-Russo effort to
open communication channels with Afghan
Taliban trying to convince them into negotiation
with other Afghan stake holders.
• Keep yourself away from Islamic Coalition
Army, as now its motives are very clear.
• Stop appeasing India as it is amply clear that
nothing of this sort has ever worked with them.
• Start doing to our adverseries exactly what they
are doing to us.
• Internally, reorganise governance structures
and create a common platform to discuss
and formulate efficient diplomacy, plan and
execute all required formats of anti-terrorism,
with all stake holders on board. Such that a
focused, centrally controlled, anti-extremism
and anti-terrorism efforts could be undertaken.
• Make a clear distinction between friends and
foes and stop playing an artificial balancing act
that could prove counter-productive.
In the end I would only urge, that if given a
choice between War and Peace, the prudent
option is naturally peace.
But if war is imposed on you, do you have a
choice of not fighting back?
Green Book 2017 83
 PAKISTAN ARMY PAKISTAN ARMY

Evolving Paradigm of
Abstract: Peaceful development of China is most
significant in the contemporary international order
of unprecedented significance experienced in the
past. China has successfully maintained steady

International Relations
growth rate of over 8% of GDP since last three
decades. This development has also put a great
question mark on established Realist notion of rising
power challenging the statues que power, generally
regarded as Thucydides Trap. Another important
Brigadier Dr Waseem Ishaque
aspect of this changing paradigm is that China is
A Liberalist Perspective on One Belt One Road
The Officer is serving in Pakistan Army
endeavouring to help uplifting other countries
and the regions through common development
and inclusive participation. Service to humanity
is one of the cardinal aspects of China’s foreign
policy philosophy. China has earned respect and
won confidence of international community due
to her non - aligned and neutral foreign policy and
strong adherence to principles of non-interference
in internal affairs of other countries. Chinese vision
of One Belt One Road aims at reviving great Chinese
dream of common development and prosperity of
participating countries and creating the community
of shared interests and destiny through a win - win
cooperation. There are several views on the intent
and motives behind One Belt One Road, albeit
different lenses of theoretical framework make
it look that way. This research article highlights
the salient aspects of mainstream theories of
International Relations “Realism” and “Liberalism”
to build the context of evolving paradigm.
Thereafter, China’s foreign policy of peaceful
coexistence and common development has been
analysed to establish its relevance with proposed
vision of “One Belt One Road”. The significance
and Liberalism analysis of One Belt One Road has
been undertaken in last part of the article. This is an
academic discourse, therefore, the views expressed
in this paper are author’s own.

T
Key Words; Common development, Inclusive
participation, Shared destiny, Win-win Cooperation.

he peaceful rise of China is the most

significant development of 21st century.
Unlike the historical precedents of
rising power challenging the statuesque
power, China has altered the paradigm
of conducting foreign relations by
way of common development, shared destiny and
peaceful coexistence. It has been reiterated by
China unequivocally that her peaceful development
is for better service to humanity and inclusive
growth of the countries and regions through a
win-win cooperation. National transformation and

84 Green Book 2017 Green Book 2017 85

 PAKISTAN ARMY
peaceful progress are at the core of grand strategic
policy planning generally called as Chinese Dream.
President Xi Jinping states; “we will unswervingly
follow the road of peaceful development, and pursue
win-win strategy of opening up. Our development
will not only benefit the Chinese people, but also the
rest of the world”.1 It can, therefore, be discerned
that China’s peaceful development is not exclusive
to China but it is inclusive as it envisages service
to humanity and mutual development for rest
of the world through peaceful coexistence. To
appreciate the dream of shared prosperity of
mankind, Chinese vision of “One Belt One Road”
is exhibition of regional connectivity and superior
economic integration, which had triumphed in
the past in the form of ancient silk route and have
to be reinvigorated for ensuing mutual benefit of
concerned countries, the regions and the world at
large.
Analytical View of Realism and Liberalism
Paradigms of International Relations
In contextual definition, Realism is predominant
school of thought in International Relations and is
often associated with realpolitik. It describes that
power or security maximisation is the ultimate desire
of every state for self-preservation and advancement
of self interests, often at cost of other states. On the
contrary, Liberalism emphasise liberty, equality,
mutual cooperations and common development
as fundamental right of every individual and
every state. From both paradigms, one can discern
that China’s peaceful rise advocates Liberalism.
However, peaceful rise of China has been portrayed
by western media as “China Threat”. Linking it
with Classical Theories of International Relations,
the Thucydides trap appears significantly, which
believes that the historical tendency of unhealthy
competition between the rising and status quo
power will produce war as it challenges the existing
international order. In certain western quarters,
Silk Road Economic Belt and Investment Banks
Projects proposed by China are considered as
China’s soft power to colonise the regions. With
the benign intent and explicit foreign policy that
rejects hegemonic behaviour, China has invited all
the countries to join this noble project as it directly
serves the mankind, amid suspicions that prevail
in international community. “There is a deeper,
unspoken fear that the new institutions will be
used to enhance China’s leadership at the expense
of the United States and its traditional allies”. 2 In
response to growing skepticism, President Xi while
addressing to the international community on 15
86 Green Book 2017
May 2014 on the eve of 60th anniversary of CPAFFC
stated that “China Threat Theory is misleading
founded on deep rooted prejudices”3 and assured
the world that “China has always been peace loving
nation, Chinese culture advocates harmony and
despite foreign aggression, Chinese philosophy does
not impose on others”. 4 One Belt One Road should
therefore, be viewed from Liberalism perspective
which believes in mutual cooperation and shared
destiny through common development and not for
power politics or dominating others as propagated
by Realism paradigm.
Liberalism Analysis of China’s Foreign Policy
Philosophy
Before going into analytical debate of “One Belt One
Road” it is pertinent to understand China’s foreign
policy philosophy as it has direct relevance with the
implementation of proposed vision. On 1 March 2007,
Mr Qin Gang, the Foreign Ministry spokesperson
outlined eight-point diplomatic philosophy of
China, which forms the basis of Chinese eagerness
for mutual cooperation and common development.
More specifically he states that; the China will
not seek hegemony, no to power politics,
equal treatment of every nation with respect,
no double standards, upholding UN charter,
peaceful settlement of disputes, no to terrorism
and weapons, proliferation and respect for
civilisations. On taking over the office of President,
Mr Xi Jinping elaborated fundamental foreign
policy principles to be adopted by his government
for realising the China’s dream. The main strands
of his vision are; Struggling for a peaceful global
environment to develop itself and supporting
world peace through its own development, to
endeavour to stimulate coordinated development
among the major powers, to consistently enhance
friendly relations with neighboring countries, to
maintain peace and stability in peripheral areas
and deepen the cooperation and unity with the
developing countries. China follows independent
foreign policy of peace on the foundations of
five principles (PANCHSHEEL) of peaceful co-
existence. It can, therefore, be concluded that
core arguments in China’s peaceful rise underpins
her desire for passing the benefits of development
to rest of the world, which indeed is unique of its
kind in contemporary world history. For avoiding
growing skepticism on China’s peaceful rise,
Chinese President proposed establishing “New
Type of Major Power” relations with USA aimed at
removing misperceptions and avoiding unhealthy
competition or conflict that is historically perceived
to be produced by the rising power. It is pertinent to
mention the press conference held on the sidelines
of APEC between President Xi Jinping and President
Obama in December 2014. President Xi announced
that “China will never challenge the leadership of
USA” and President Obama announced that “USA
welcomes peaceful development of China and
appreciates the initiative of One Belt One Road”.
Having built the strategic construct of One Belt One
Road vision, now the stage is set for deeper analysis
in succeeding parts.
One Belt One Road Vision
Chinese President during his visit to Kazakhstan
delivered a key note speech at Nazarbayev University
on 7 September 2013, where he announced vision of
constructing “The Silk Road Economic Belt” , which
was followed up by his subsequent visits of Central
and South Asia in September 2014, where contours
of “Silk Road Economic Belt” were debated and
refined into wholesome vision of “One Belt One
Road” based on the ethics of “amity, sincerity,
mutual benefit and inclusiveness”. The strategic
vision of “One Belt One Road” comprises two
segments; the one component is land based road
which has been termed as “Silk Road Economic
Belt”, while second component is sea based which
is referred as “21st Century Maritime Silk Road”.
Additionally, three Economic Corridors have also
been proposed for optimum connectivity of more
countries and the regions. The government of
China has allocated US$ 40 billion for Silk Road
Fund and another US$ 100 billion will be financed
through recently established Asian Infrastructure
Investment Bank (AIIB). Comprehensive analysis of
each component will be presented in relevant part
of this paper.
Silk Road”.9 Additionally, three Economic Corridors
have also been proposed for optimum connectivity
of more countries and the regions. The government
of China has allocated US$ 40 billion for Silk Road
Fund and another US$ 100 billion will be financed
through recently established Asian Infrastructure
Investment Bank (AIIB). Comprehensive analysis of
each component will be presented in relevant part
of this paper.
One Belt and Road Strategic Vision10
The Silk Road Economic Belt
This is essentially a road network aimed at
enhancing transportation and trading channel
through land route whereby “China is linked to
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Europe by crossing through Russia and Central Asia
along the northern line, to the west joins countries
along Caspian Sea and Black Sea by middle line,
and to South Asian Countries and Europe along
South Line with North Africa as its extension”.11
The New Silk Road Connecting Different Regions 12
More specifically, the New Silk Road
originates at Xi’an in Central China, passes through
Lanzhou in Gansu Province-Urumqi and Khorgas
in Xinjiang Province enters near the border with
Kazakhstan. Thereafter passes through the Central
Asian Countries of “Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan,
Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and enters Afghanistan.
From here the road passes through northern Iran,
Iraq, Syria and Turkey. From Turkish city of Istanbul,
the road crosses the strait of Bosporus and swings
North West to Europe passing through Bulgaria,
Romania, Czech Republic and reaches Germany.
From Duisburg in Germany, the road moves to
Rotterdam in Netherlands and moves South to Venice
in Italy”,13 where it joins the proposed sea based
project “21st Century Maritime Silk Road”.
Twenty First Century Maritime Silk Road
The “Maritime Silk Road” is a sea based maritime
transportation and trading channel. It starts from
Quanzhou at Fujian Province and passes through
Guangzhou in Guangdong Province- Beihai in
Guangxi Province and Kaikou in Hainan Province
from where it is heading south to Malacca Straits.
21st Century Maritime Silk Road Master Plan14
Green Book 2017 87
 PAKISTAN ARMY
From Malaysian capital Kuala Lumpur, it moves to
Belttung and Banda Ache in Indonesia, Chittagong
in Bangladesh, Kolkata in India, “Hambantota in
Sri Lanka, Maldives”15 and crosses the remaining
Indian Ocean to “Kenyan capital Nairobi. From here,
the road moves north passing around Horn of Africa
and through Red Sea reaches the Mediterranean Sea.
After touching Athens in Greece, it meets with Land
Based New Silk Road at Venice in Italy”.16
China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC)
Pakistan has been linked to One Belt One Road
through exclusive CPEC. It is appreciated that “CPEC
will function as means for economic development of
Pakistan”.17 Its expanse is appreciated around 3000
KMs long joining Kashgar in Xinjiang Province
of China to Gwadar in Balochistan Province of
Pakistan. “US$ 46 billion have been allotted for the
project which is anticipated to be accomplished by
2030”.18 The important components of CPEC include
the development of Gwadar Port including oil
storage, oil refinery and host of allied port facilities
and international airport which will be completed
by 2017. The existing Karakoram Highway will be
widened along-with up-gradation of Karachi-
Peshawar rail link in next phase. Fibre optic link
will also be developed in second phase of the
project. “The project also involves investment in
energy sector in Pakistan which is estimated to be
around US$34 billions”.19
China – Mongolia – Russia Economic Corridor
During tripartite summit with the leaders of Russia
and Mongolia on 11 September 2014 at Dushanbe on
the side lines of 14th SCO Summit, China “proposed
to construct China-Mongolia and Russia Economic
Corridor”.20 Russian President stressed that the
“geographic proximity of Russia, Mongolia and China
help us implement mutually advantageous enduring
projects in energy, infrastructure and mining”, 21
88 Green Book 2017
while Chinese President expressed that “the three
neighbours can merge Beijing’s Silk Road Economic
Belt initiative with Russia’s transcontinental rail
plan and Mongolia’s Prairie Road programme,
to cooperatively build a China-Mongolia-Russia
economic corridor”. 22
Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar Economic
Corridor (BCIM)
During Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s
visit to Beijing on 25 October 2013, he and
Chinese Premier Li Keqiang agreed on enhancing
interaction on strategic economic partnership
anticipated through BCIM. It is appreciated that
BCIM will “ease and multiply the flow of goods and
services including transport, tourism between India
and China apart from providing huge economic
resources to mushrooming markets of Myanmar and
Bangladesh due to geographical contiguity and land
based connectivity of BCIM states”. 23 The corridor
will start at Kunming of Yunnan Province of China,
through Myanmar to Dhaka in Bangladesh, then to
Indian city of Kolkata from where it will link to port
city of Chennai which is also a part of Maritime Silk
Road through multiple channels of road, rail and air
linkages”. 24
Liberalism Analysis of “One Belt One Road”
Manifestation of China’s Foreign Policy of Building
Harmonious World
One Belt and One Road is a unique blend
of historical, cultural, economic and trade
integration aspects, which are at the core
of China’s foreign policy. For this important
project, “China is advocating Three NOs, ie,
no meddling in the internal affairs of other
countries, No to seeking sphere of influence
and No to hegemony”.25
This initiative brings enormous opportunities of
demonstrating China’s soft power for eventual
benefit of mankind without discrimination and
building harmonious world.
Revival of the Spirit of Ancient Silk Road
One Belt One Road brings enormous
opportunities of exchange of civilisations
and promoting culture, traditions, education,
knowledge, science, technology and host of
mutual exchange programmes for benefit
of humanity as it advocates and advances
the core spirit of ancient Silk Road, that is;
equality, mutual trust, mutual leaning, mutual
benefits and inclusiveness for all. From Chinese
perspective, it will help in enhancing political and
cultural ties with all the relevant countries which
is expected to create a new model of “mutual trust
and mutual respect” 26 for mutually advantageous
cooperation. The proposed initiative presents
opportunities for integrating the relevant
countries, regions and the continents with
commonality of purpose and mutually win-win
situation. It connects Asia, Europe, Africa, Middle
East and ASEAN region through land and sea route
into the bonds of friendship and prosperity.
Unique Opportunities for Economic Integration
One Belt One Road is reminiscent of a golden line
joining the countries with political confidence,
developed and developing economies,
comprehensive national strength and balanced
resources. “The combined GDP of countries along
Silk Road is 55% of world’s GDP and their population
accounts for 70% and proven reserves 75%”.27 Such
a huge economic potentials and fast speed of
competitive economic progress in the world makes
the Silk Road as indispensable artery of economic
transformation and integration in this era of
economic globalisation. Another example will
amply highlight the point of economic integration;
“From 2014-18, it is projected that imports of
China will hit US$ 10 trillion, with direct overseas
investment exceeding US$ 500 billion. Similarly,
Russia and China have set the target of enhancing
bilateral trade upto US$ 200 billion by 2020”.28 All
these anticipated targets will be heavily dependent
on the Silk Road Economic Belt.
Eradiating Violence and Terrorism
One Belt One Road offers excellent opportunities
for building new bonds of peaceful development
and lifting regional security. Giving firm assurances
and support to each other on the cardinal issues
related to territorial integrity, sovereignty, security
and stability through inclusive participation will
PAKISTAN ARMY
reduce the chances of mistrust and eliminate the
space potentially to be exploited by elements
who are ready to destabilise the regions, thus
contributing towards regional and global security.
Africa, Middle East, Afghanistan etc. are some
of the examples of the regions where security
situations are unstable. One of the contributory
factors is lack of infrastructure and inadequate
communication between races, tribes with weak
technological capacity. It is my considered analysis
that most of terrorism issues are byproduct of
under development and low level of income, which
has entangled the countries into vicious cycle of
poverty and terrorism etc.
One Belt One Road brings in enormous
economic, developmental, poverty alleviation
and prosperity related underpinnings, which
will create host of employment opportunities,
drive the engine for economic growth, bring in
prosperity, development and ultimate stability
for the countries and the regions.
Means of Flourishing People-to-People Contact
One Belt One Road will create enormous
opportunities for tourism, transportation of goods
and services, exchange of students, teachers,
scholars, Think Tanks, Journalists, media,
musicians, artists etc. Thus enhancing people-to-
people contacts and eventually better assimilation
of each other’s values, cultures and creating shared
interest for mutual benefit and service to mankind.
It will provide unique opportunities of multi level
and multi channel people-to-people exchanges
which will promote shared understanding and
learning.
Building the Community of Common Interests and
Destiny
One Belt One Road will help in establishing
the community of collective values, equally
beneficial interests, collective prosperity
and shared destiny through a win-win
cooperation and peaceful co existence. This
fundamental thinking lays strong foundations
for connection of hearts and minds of people
irrespective of countries and the regions. It
inspires advancement and collaboration in
the exchange of people-to-people contacts,
especially in the fields of culture, economy,
science, trade, education, transport and
several other spheres as indicated in the
pertinent vision documents.
Green Book 2017 89
 PAKISTAN ARMY PAKISTAN ARMY

Evolving Trends of International Strategic
Landscape
One Belt One Road is an ideal concept fitting into
the current globalisation trends providing a unique
opportunity of integration into several forms and
manifestations, which indeed is great opportunity
for success of this initiative. Silk Road Economic
Belt is a perfect modal of geo economics, fitting
into the international scene and pattern of politics
for eventual benefit of every one through a win-
win cooperation. The economic opportunities
imbedded in this project are unfathomable, which
must be exploited positively. There is greater desire
by countries and the regional organisations to
coordinate their interests and strategies for cohesive
response to host of challenges and opportunities
facing the countries and the regions. One Belt
One Road provide ideal platform to countries to
align their economic and security interests and
coordinate them regionally and globally.
OBOR Summit 2017
sovereignty over spratly islands, conflicts arising out
of South China sea, military modernisation plans,
missile and space programme, persistent tension
with USA over freedom of navigation and Taiwan
issue are generally termed as China’s war mongering
aimed at demonising the regional countries and
enhancing her sphere of influence at the cost of
others. China’s revised Defence Policy of Active
Defence and enhanced role at international stage in
the form of Active Diplomacy are cardinal aspects of
proponents of China Threat Theory. The territorial
disputes and evolving situations in South China
Sea pose serious challenges for China’s strategic
planners due to inherent vulnerability of Sea Lines
of Communication (SLOCs), generally termed as
Malacca dilemma. From this perspective, One Belt
One Road, while enhancing interdependence and
common development is believed to be Chinese
attempts of colonising the countries and the regions
through monetary benefits.
It centres around Afghanistan designed to link
Eurasia to Indian Ocean”.29 Second one is Russia’s
initiative on “Eurasian Economic Integration which
was announced on 29 May 2015”.30 Third is EU
dominated “cooperation and assistance to East
European and Central Asian Countries”.31 Fourth one
is “Trans Eurasia transportation plan and last one is
Turkey’s Modern Silk Road Plan”.32 Due to existing
level of tense relations prevailing with Russia over
Ukraine crisis, unstable Middle East, competing
interest of USA and EU, and overlapping alternate
ambitious plans with inward regional orientation,
are leading towards conflict and competition.
Secondly financing of this initiative by China, AIIB
and BRICS Bank has created a fear that Silk Road
development fund and Infrastructure Development
Banks “pose direct challenge to USA dominated
World Bank and IMF and Asian Development Bank,
and are considered as an attempt to undermine USA’s
leadership in the region”.33 Thirdly, in the backdrop
of regional power politics, like USA’s rebalancing
towards Asia, tense competition between Russia,
EU and USA over Ukraine, unstable Middle East
and Africa are some of the impediments which pose
grave challenges of Power Politics in realising the
initiative of One Belt One Road.
Conclusion
The “One Belt One Road” is unique and exceptional
enterprise of China, which is concentrated on
shared progress and prosperity of humanity,
enduring stability of related countries and the
regions due to greater economic amalgamation.
This vision has a benevolent intent which is aimed
at increasing people-to-people contacts, revitalise
the resources’ integration and stimulate common
development of Asia, Europe, Middle East and
Africa and contribute towards development of
worldwide economies. This Grand strategic vision is
manifestation of Chinese dream of enhanced multi
dimensional integration and regional connectivity,
which had prevailed in the times of “Ancient Silk
Road” and have to be rejuvenated for benefit of
the regions, countries and the world at large. This
article has conducted dispassionate analysis of
One Belt One Road through Liberalism and Realism
paradigms of International Relations, highlighting
its benefits, suspicion and fear it contains. While
both theoretical paradigms have rationale for
the arguments, however, it is appreciated that
by and large One Belt One Road offers enormous
opportunities. Pakistan is uniquely positioned to
get maximum benefits from this vision as work
on China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is
going on at steady pace and has been regarded as a
unique blend of Pakistan-China friendship.
NOTES
1. RenXiaosi, The Chinese Dream What It Means for China and Rest of the World,
New World Press, 2013, page, 10.
2. The Nation News Paper, China’s Silk Road poses challenges to USA
dominance, 26 January 2015 file:///C:/Users/cds/Desktop/One%20Belt%20

Realism Analysis on One Belt One Road Alternate Power Politics

Views
China Threat Theory
China Threat Theory has been gaining currency in
international media despite assertions of peaceful
development by China. The issues like unresolved
border disputes with neighbouring countries,
The proposed alignment of One Belt One Road
passes through several countries and the regions,
with separate multilateral arrangements in
addition to this project. Most significant one are;
“USA’s New Silk Road Plan which was announced
by US Secretary of State Hilary Clinton in July 2011.

90 Green Book 2017 Green Book 2017 91

 PAKISTAN ARMY PAKISTAN ARMY

One%20Road/China%27s%20Silk%20Road%20poses%20challenge%20
to%20US%20dominance%20on%20continent%20-%20The%20Nation.htm (1
February 2017)
3. Robert Lawarance Kuhn, Silk Road Economic Belt Strategy, China Go Abroad
Newspaper, , June 2014, file:///C:/Users/cds/Desktop/One%20Belt%20
One%20Road/The%20%E2%80%98Silk%20Road%20Economic%20
Belt%E2%80%99%20Strategy%20%20Actualizing%20President%20Xi%20
Jinping%E2%80%99s%20Foreign%20Policy%20_%20ChinaGoAbroad.htm (1
February 2017)
4. ibid
5. Silk Road Economic Belt Construction: Vision and Path, Think Tank Report 28
June 2014, page 5
6. Spotlight, Xi’s Four Nation Tour, 21 September 2014, file:///C:/Users/cds/
Desktop/One%20Belt%20One%20Road/Spotlight%20%20Xi%27s%20
four-nation%20tour%20highlights%20sincerity%20of%20China%27s%20
neighborhood%20diplomacy%20-%20Xinhua%20_%20English.news.cn.htm
(10 February 2015)
7. ibid
8. ibid
9. ibid
10. China’s New Silk Road Vision Revealed, The Diplomat News Paper, 9 May 2014
11. Silk Road Economic Belt Construction: Vision and Path, Think Tank Report 28
June 2014, page 5
12. China Studying New Silk Road Rail Link to Pakistan, China Daily USA,
6 February 2015, http://usa.chinadaily.com.cn/business/2014-06/28/
content_17621848.htm (10 February 2015)
13. China’s New Silk Road Vision Revealed, The Diplomat Newspaper,
9 May 2014, file:///C:/Users/cds/Desktop/One%20Belt%20One%20
Road/China%E2%80%99s%20%E2%80%98New%20Silk%20
Road%E2%80%99%20Vision%20Revealed%20_%20The%20Diplomat.htm
(10 February 2015)
14. China’s New Foreign Relations for a Complex World, by Yang Jiechi, https://
mygoldenbengal.wordpress.com/2014/11/11/chinas-new-foreign-relations-for-
a-complex-world/ (1 February 2017)
15. Spotlight, President Xi’s Four Nation Tour Highlights sincerity on China’s
neighborhood Diplomacy, 21 September 2014, file:///C:/Users/cds/Desktop/
One%20Belt%20One%20Road/Spotlight%20%20Xi%27s%20four-nation%20
news/2013/10/bangladesh-china-india-myanmar-economic-corridor-builds-
steam/ (1 February 2017)
4. Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar Economic Corridor Build Steam,
Asia Briefing Newspaper, 25 October 2013, http://www.asiabriefing.com/
news/2013/10/bangladesh-china-india-myanmar-economic-corridor-builds-
steam/ (1 February 2017)
5. China’s New Silk Road Vision Revealed, The Diplomat Newspaper,
9 May 2014, file:///C:/Users/cds/Desktop/One%20Belt%20One%20
Road/China%E2%80%99s%20%E2%80%98New%20Silk%20
Road%E2%80%99%20Vision%20Revealed%20_%20The%20Diplomat.htm
(16 February 2015)
6. China’s New Silk Road Vision Revealed, The Diplomat News Paper, 9 May 2014
7. China Studying New Silk Road Rail Link to Pakistan, China Daily USA,
6 February 2015, http://usa.chinadaily.com.cn/business/2014-06/28/
content_17621848.htm (1 February 2017)
8. China’s New Silk Road Vision Revealed, The Diplomat Newspaper,
9 May 2014, file:///C:/Users/cds/Desktop/One%20Belt%20One%20
Road/China%E2%80%99s%20%E2%80%98New%20Silk%20
Road%E2%80%99%20Vision%20Revealed%20_%20The%20Diplomat.htm (1
February 2017)
9. China’s New Foreign Relations for a Complex World, by Yang Jiechi, https://
mygoldenbengal.wordpress.com/2014/11/11/chinas-new-foreign-relations-for-
a-complex-world/ (1 February 2017)
10. China, Russia and Mongolia to create Economic Corridor, The BRICS Post, 12
September 2014, http://thebricspost.com/china-russia-mongolia-to-create-
economic-corridor/#.VNSNhlL9ky8 (1 February 2017)
11. Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation Corridors, http://www.
carecprogram.org/index.php?page=carec-countries (1 February 2017)
12. Defining the Silk Road, Joshua J Mark, published on 28 March 2014, http://
www.ancient.eu/Silk_Road/ (1 February 2017)
13. Full text of Hu Jinato’s report at the 17th Party Congress on 15 October 2007
http://www.china.org.cn/english/congress/229611.html , (1 February 2017)
14. History of Silk Road, Silk Road Economic Belt Construction: Vision and Path,
Think Tank Report 28 June 2014
15. Historic Silk Road, West China, Xinjiang, http://www.china.org.cn/english/
MATERIAL/139504.htm, (1 February 2017)
16. Jerry Bentley, Old World Encounters: Cross-Cultural Contacts and Exchanges

Looking After
tour%20highlights%20sincerity%20of%20China%27s%20neighborhood%20 in Pre-
diplomacy%20-%20Xinhua%20_%20English.news.cn.htm (1 February 2017) 17. Silk Route History, http://history.cultural-china.com/en/183History13045.html
16. China’s New Silk Road Vision Revealed, The Diplomat Newspaper, (1 February 2017)
9 May 2014, file:///C:/Users/cds/Desktop/One%20Belt%20One%20 18. Modern Times (New York: Oxford University Press, 1993), page, 32.
Road/China%E2%80%99s%20%E2%80%98New%20Silk%20 19. News Paper English News China, 6 February 2015, http://www.chinaview.cn/
Road%E2%80%99%20Vision%20Revealed%20_%20The%20Diplomat.htm (1 special/index.htm (1 February 2017)
February 2017) 20. Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif’s Statement after Meeting with President Xi
17. Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif’s Statement after Meeting with President Xi Jinping at Beijing in November 2014 at APEC Conference

Our Veterans
Jinping at Beijing in November 2014 at APEC Conference 21. Pakistan is Set to Build Economic Corridor, Satoshi Waki , Asia.com, 6
18. ibid December 2014, http://asia.nikkei.com/Politics-Economy/International-
19. ibid Relations/Pakistan-set-to-build-economic-corridor (1 February 2017)
20. China, Russia and Mongolia to create Economic Corridor, The BRICS Post, 12 22.
September 2014, http://thebricspost.com/china-russia-mongolia-to-create- 23. President Hu Jintao’s speech at UN New York on 15 September 2005, http://
economic-corridor/#.VNSNhlL9ky8 (15 February 2015) www.un.org/webcast/summit2005/statements15/china050915eng.pdf (1
21. ibid February 2017)
22. ibid 24. RenXiaosi, The Chinese Dream What It Means for China and Rest of the World,

In war, there arere no unwounded

23. Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar Economic Corridor Build Steam, New World Press, 2013, page, 10.
Asia Briefing Newspaper, 25 October 2013, http://www.asiabriefing.com/ 25. Robert Lawarance Kuhn, Silk Road Economic Belt Strategy, China Go Abroad
news/2013/10/bangladesh-china-india-myanmar-economic-corridor-builds- Newspaper, , June 2014, file:///C:/Users/cds/Desktop/One%20Belt%20
steam/ (16 February 2015) One%20Road/The%20%E2%80%98Silk%20Road%20Economic%20

soldiers.” -Jose Narosky

24. ibid Belt%E2%80%99%20Strategy%20%20Actualizing%20President%20Xi%20
25. Shi Ze, One Belt and One Road Concept and practices, China Institute of Jinping%E2%80%99s%20Foreign%20Policy%20_%20ChinaGoAbroad.htm (1
International Studies, 25 May 2014, file:///C:/Users/cds/Desktop/One%20 February 2017) Brigadier Ahmed Nawaz
Belt%20One%20Road/%E2%80%9COne%20Road%20and%20One%20 26. Silk Road Economic Belt Construction: Vision and Path, Think Tank Report 28
June 2014, page 5
The Officer is serving in Pakistan Army
Belt%E2%80%9D%20and%20New%20Thinking%20With%20Regard%20
to%20Concepts%20and%20Practice_China%20Institute%20of%20 27. Spotlight, President Xi’s Four Nation Tour Highlights sincerity on China’s
International%20Studies.htm (1 February 2017) neighborhood Diplomacy, 21 September 2014, file:///C:/Users/cds/Desktop/
26. China’s New Silk Road Vision Revealed, The Diplomat Newspaper,
9 May 2014, file:///C:/Users/cds/Desktop/One%20Belt%20One%20
One%20Belt%20One%20Road/Spotlight%20%20Xi%27s%20four-nation%20
tour%20highlights%20sincerity%20of%20China%27s%20neighborhood%20
Abstract: Due to their contributions and sacrifices, nations around the world endeavour to establish
Road/China%E2%80%99s%20%E2%80%98New%20Silk%20 diplomacy%20-%20Xinhua%20_%20English.news.cn.htm (1 February 2017) comprehensive structure for welfare, rehabilitation and resettlement of their veterans. In fact, veterans’
welfare programmes are a mean for distribution of war sacrifices in the entire society. Veterans in Pakistan
Road%E2%80%99%20Vision%20Revealed%20_%20The%20Diplomat.htm (1 28. Shi Ze, One Belt and One Road Concept and practices, China Institute of
February 2017) International Studies, 25 May 2014, file:///C:/Users/cds/Desktop/One%20
27. Silk Road Economic Belt Construction: Vision and Path, Think Tank Forum,
27 June 2014, page 6
Belt%20One%20Road/%E2%80%9COne%20Road%20and%20One%20
Belt%E2%80%9D%20and%20New%20Thinking%20With%20Regard%20
enjoy great respect and honour among their fellow citizens but their welfare is not given due consideration
28. ibid to%20Concepts%20and%20Practice_China%20Institute%20of%20 at government level. Pakistan Armed Services Board is the only organisation at federal level to look after
veterans’ affairs. Although, all the three Services have an fairly efficient mechanism in place for welfare
29. Silk Road Economic Belt Construction: Vision and Path, Think Tank Report 28 International%20Studies.htm (1 February 2017)
June 2014, page 11 29. Selected Works of Deng Xioping, Vol.III, ForeignlanguagesPress, 1994, p. 146.
30.
31.
ibid
ibid page 12
30. The Nation News Paper, China’s Silk Road poses challenges to USA
dominance, 26 January 2015 file:///C:/Users/cds/Desktop/One%20Belt%20
and rehabilitation of their veterans, yet due to organisational/structural void, at national level, veterans
32. ibid page 13 and 13 One%20Road/China%27s%20Silk%20Road%20poses%20challenge%20 are not being looked after befittingly. Consequently, they are facing numerous issues concerning pension,
medical, re-employment, education and housing etc. To lessen the woes of veterans and their families,
33. ibid to%20US%20dominance%20on%20continent%20-%20The%20Nation.htm (1
February 2017)
Bibliography
1. Approaches Old and New to the Silk Roads” Eliseeff in: The Silk Roads:
31. Transcript of, Mr Qin Gang, the Foreign Ministry spokesperson of 1 March
2007, http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2007/mar/1/20070301-104826-
synergy is required to be created in the efforts of all departments affiliated with welfare of veterans. PASB
Highways of Culture and Commerce. Paris (1998) UNESCO, Reprint: Berghahn 2978r/?page=all (1 February 2017) must be transformed into a vibrant, dynamic and effective organisation; adequately equipped to perform
its tasks. Above all, Federal and Provincial Governments must take the ownership of veterans and their
Books (2009), page. 1–2. ISBN 92-3-103652-1; ISBN 1-57181-221-0; ISBN 1-57181- 32. Xi’s One Belt and One Road has Great Significance, CRI English News Paper,
222-9 (pbk) 11 October 2014, file:///C:/Users/cds/Desktop/One%20Belt%20One%20Road/
2. An Archeologist follows his dream to Asia, Aurel Stein, the last explorer, the
Silk Road under Sand, http://www.monkeytree.org/silkroad/stein.html (1
Xi%27s%20Strategic%20Conception%20of%20%27One%20Belt%20and%20
One%20Road%27%20Has%20Great%20Significance.htm (1 February 2017)
families instead of leaving this ever increasingly important issue to defence forces alone.
February 2017) Key words: Veterans’ issues, Pakistan Armed Services Board, lack of government patronage, vibrant
3. Asia Briefing News Paper, 25 October 2013, http://www.asiabriefing.com/
organisation.

92 Green Book 2017 Green Book 2017 93

 V
PAKISTAN ARMY
eterans dedicate their youth to
the defence and security of their
motherland so that their fellow
citizens can live independent,
honorable and secure life. They lead
an extremely tough life, throughout
their service and never hesitate to make even the
ultimate sacrifice of their lives. Many, in the process,
loose limbs and spend remaining part of their life
as a disabled person. A considerable number of
veterans who have had an exposure to conflict,
suffer from Post Traumatic Stress Disorder. Thus,
recognition of sacrifices made by veterans through
welfare measures for their rehabilitation attains
paramount importance. That is why countries
all over the world endeavour to have a well
established system for the welfare, resettlement
and rehabilitation of their veterans. In America,
there is an exclusive ministry of veterans with a
Federal Minister for this purpose. Countries of the
world lay varying emphasis to veterans’ affairs,
however, countries with long history of war fighting
have more elaborate and mature systems for their
welfare. Such countries have many ways to honour
their veterans including longstanding traditions,
ceremonies and holidays. For example, Veterans’
Day is an official public holiday in United States,
observed annually on November 11 to honour
military veterans.1
Veterans’ services in Pakistan are not much
recognised particularly at Government level.
Lack of patronage at national level coupled
with absence of any effective and vibrant
forum to project their sacrifices for the nation,
organisational inadequacies of existing set
ups, lack of resources and lack of coordination
between departments deputed for the task are
some of the contributory factors towards this.
Pakistan Armed Services Board (PASB) is the only
organisation at federal level to look after welfare,
rehabilitation and resettlement aspects of the
veterans. However, due to organisational and
administrative weaknesses, lack of resources, poor
funding, capacity building issues and above all
lack of priority by government is found wanting
to effectively do the job. Consequently, veterans
face numerous problems with regards to pensions,
medical, re-employment, education and housing
etc. Armed Forces, at their end, try to take care of
their veterans through Fauji, Bahria and Shaheen
foundations but magnitude/quantum of work is so
large that it cannot be managed befittingly without
94 Green Book 2017
PAKISTAN ARMY
Government support.
“No handicap is beyond the resolve of a soldier” COAS
To alleviate the distress of veterans visiting brave son of Soil
and ensure their welfare, resettlement and
rehabilitation, Federal and Provincial Governments
must take the ownership of the veterans and
undertake initiatives to address their problems.
PASB must be made more vibrant, dynamic and
effective through its reorganisation, eradication of
its weaknesses and allocation of required resources.
It is also important to create synergy in the efforts
of all departments affiliated with veterans’ affairs
(VA). Services, though already doing enough can
also take additional measures to help veterans and
their dependents to overcome multi-dimensional
issues being faced by them.
Aim
To evaluate the existing system of welfare of
veterans with a view to make recommendations for
its improvement.
Scope
The paper includes: -
• Who is a veteran?
• Problems being faced by our veterans.
• Existing Organisation for welfare of veterans.
• Management of veterans’ affairs by some other
countries.
• Analysis.
• Recommendations.
Who is a Veteran?
According to Wikipedia, a veteran (from Latin
vetus, meaning “old”) is a person who has had long
service or experience in a particular occupation or
field.2 Cambridge dictionary has defined veteran
as “a person who has had a lot of experience of
a particular activity”.3 Oxford dictionary defines
veterans as “a person who has a lot experience in
a particular area or activity”.4 By these definitions,
Military Veteran is a person who has served in the education, housing requirement etc. are at healthcare system (116 medical facilities;
Armed Forces. Those who had direct exposure their peak and cannot be met through pension hospitals, medical centres, dispensaries etc.
to military action or conflict are also called war alone. Hence, they require re-employment as a with approximately 4300 employees5) FF is
veterans and traditionally war veterans are treated means of sustenance which is neither provided unable to provide medical facilities in many
with great respect for their contributions by their by the Government nor the armed forces parts of the country. Moreover, for veterans
nations. (services lack capacity to absorb all veterans). living in remote areas access to the nearest FF
Even the meagre employment quota reserved hospital is more time consuming and expensive
• Problems being Faced by Our Veterans by Federal and Provincial Governments is not than local medical treatment. Problem becomes
Some of the problems being faced by our veterans being implemented. more pronounced for veterans living in far
include: • Medical. JCOs/soldiers and their families flung areas like Chitral. Moreover, retired civil
• Re-employment. Most of our officers and are entitled to medical treatment in Fauji servants are allowed medical allowance in lieu
soldiers retire at an early age; approximately 40 Foundation (FF) or equivalent hospitals in of outdoor treatment which is not allowed to
years (civilians retire at the age of superannuation; other services which are limited in number and armed forces’ veterans.
60 years). At this stage, liabilities like children’s located in major cities only. Despite an elaborate • Pension Related Issues. Veterans and
Green Book 2017 95
 PAKISTAN ARMY
their families face number of problems
related to pension which include adjustment
of increments, transfer of pension to next of
kin (NOK), claiming arrears etc. The process
becomes cumbersome as they have to interact
with Controller of Military Accounts (Pension),
banks, post office, Central Officers’ Record
Office (in case of officers), Regimental Centres
and PASB. The diversity of departments, lack
of one window facility and difficulties in
accessing these setups adds to the miseries of
the veterans, particularly widows.
• Children’s Education. Provision of quality
education to children does not need an
emphasis. Recently, number of vacancies
in public educational institutes for wards
of serving and retired personnel have been
increased considerably. In addition to FF
institutions, an opportunity is also afforded to
wards of veterans for education in Cadet Colleges
and Army Public Schools. FF is running large
number of educational institutions, Vocational
Training Centres and Technical Training
Centres, a university and medical college6 with
reserved quota for children of veterans. Despite
all this, the volume and degree of effort is far
less than required due to large population of
veterans/families.
• Provision of Houses. Housing is another
realm in which governments’ involvement
has been inefficient. Respective services make
an endeavour to reduce this problem through
provision of plots and houses. Introduction
of JCOs/Soldiers Housing Insurance Scheme
President Mamnoon Hussain conferring Nishan-e-
Imtiaz on General Zubair Mehmood Hayat,
Chairman Joint Chiefs of Staff Committee
96 Green Book 2017
PAKISTAN ARMY
in 2012 in the Army has helped NOKs of
shuhada and those who die during service to
own a house. However, there is no worthwhile
initiative from government side to help veterans
in this regard.
• Privileges/Facilities. Veterans, in many
countries are provided certain concessions/
privileges like rebate on travelling, entry in parks,
parking, renewal of licenses and tax exemption
etc. Such privileges/concessions, more than
actual financial impact, act as massage to the
pride and honour of veterans. Just to quote,
veterans in UK, after having met prerequisites
can get Veterans Oyster Photo Card to travel free
on bus, tram, tube, London Rail and most of
national rail services.7 No such concessions and
privileges are granted to our veterans.
• Financial Loans. There are no arrangements
for grant of financial loan to deserving veterans
except for a Micro Credit Scheme, launched
in 54 DASBs with Rs 39.54 million by PASB.8
The scheme was introduced in 2001 to help
ex-servicemen in establishing small business
and become a useful member of the society. Rs.
30000-40000/- are provided as loan to 30-40
veterans in each DASB.
• Vocational Training of Veterans. Absence
of an effective and forward looking skill
development programme for veterans affects
their re-employment chances negatively. Pre-
release training regime in vogue for soldiers
before retirement need a total rehash/ revamp.
• There is no effective mechanism to facilitate “This nation will remain the land of the free only
veterans and their families in matters dealt
with by civil authorities. so long as it is the home of the brave.”
Existing Organisation To Manage Veterans’ Affairs -Elmer Davis
Various departments looking after veterans’ affairs • Minister of Labour. • Members
include: • Minister of Industries. • Financial advisor, MoD.
PASB • Deputy Chairman Planning Commission. • Representative of COAS, CAS and CNS.
PASB is an attached department of Ministry of • Chairman Joint Chiefs of Staff Committee. • Secretary - Director General PASB
Defence (MoD) with its Secretariat at Rawalpindi • Chief of Army Staff (COAS).
and Directorates in all Provincial Capitals and • Chief of Air Staff (CAS). Major responsibilities of PASB include
AJ&K. The Board also has sixty three District Armed • Chief of Naval Staff (CNS). promotion of welfare of ex-servicemen and
Service Boards (DASBs). Besides looking after • Secretary, Defence. their families in conjunction with Service
welfare aspects of ex-servicemen, PASB also assists • One retired Major General or above/ Headquarters, facilitate in re-employment
serving soldiers in their civil matters. Composition equivalent from each service. of ex-servicemen, delivery of cheques
of PASB at national level is as under9:- • Secretary-Director General PASB to pensioners, documentation of family
• Chairman-President/ Prime Minister Central board decides major policy issues during its pension transfer cases, assist ex-servicemen
• Members annual meeting whereas a working committee meets in utilisation of various welfare schemes of
• Minister of Finance. twice a year to discuss important aspects relating the services, alleviation of distress to ex-
• Minister of Defence. to welfare of veterans and serving personnel. The servicemen and passage of information to ex-
• Minister of Interior. committee is composed of10: servicemen regarding welfare schemes etc.
• Minister of Establishment. • Chairman - Additional Secretary, MoD
Green Book 2017 97
 PAKISTAN ARMY
PASB also represents Pakistan in World Veterans
Federation and Royal Commonwealth ex-service
League.
A retired Brigadier is appointed as Director
General PASB with two Assistant Director Generals
who are retired Colonels/Lieutenant Colonels or
equivalent officers of Navy or Air Force. Currently,
7x Directorates are functioning at provincial level
and AJ&K (Punjab has two directorates i.e North and
Centre & South). DASBs act as field units and carry
out verification of applications, claims, petitions
etc. of veterans as well as serving personnel. DASBs
are classified into category A and B, according
to population of ex-servicemen and is headed
by a retired Colonel/Lieutenant Colonel/Major.
Honorary Welfare Officers (HWO) perform the most
important task by executing field verification and
documentation of veterans.
Armed Forces
• Joint Staff Headquarters (JSHQ). There is no
98 Green Book 2017
exclusive set up at JSHQ to deal with veterans’
affairs or act as interface between PASB, Service
Headquarters and veterans.
• Three Services. All three services are
endeavouring hard to take care of their veterans
through different Directorates and Fauji,
Bahria and Shaheen Foundations. Welfare
measures by each service are briefly discussed
in succeeding paras.
• Army. Adjutant General’s Branch is
overall responsible for welfare, rehabilitation
and resettlement of veterans and their families.
Welfare and Rehabilitation Directorate (W&R)
undertakes Welfare and Rehabilitation
measures in the Army to include financial
assistance, re-settlement of families, re-
employment, education assistance programme
and medical assistance etc. Shuhada Cell
at GHQ assists NOKs of Shuhada for speedy
settlement of their issues. Pay, Pension &
Accounts, Housing and Medical Directorate are
responsible for pension, housing and medical
related issues respectively. FF is a major welfare
organ of the service which is managing a well
structured network of health care facilities and
educational institutions for welfare of veterans.
• PAF. Welfare & rehabilitation aspects of retired
and serving personnel are being looked after by
Welfare Directorate. In addition to FF medical
facilities, PAF hospitals at regional bases also
provide medical care to veterans. A dedicated
Shuhada Cell has been establishment at Air
HQ to act as “One Window Facilitation Centre”
for Shuhada’s families, retired personnel
and widows for resolving their problems.11
PAF has taken a lead over other services
by establishing Pakistan Air Force Retired
Officers Association (PAFROA) at air HQ
and regional bases to address the issues
of veterans.12 Shaheen Foundation has also
launched different programmes for welfare of
veterans.
• Navy. Within the ambit of Personnel
Branch, W&R Directorate has been assigned the
responsibility for welfare and rehabilitation of
all ranks of the service. A dedicated directorate
is looking after Pension related issues.
Commander Karachi and Station Commander
Lahore act as regional welfare officers too and
extend welfare facilities to veterans. Bahria
Foundation is also actively extending welfare
services to veterans.
Veterans’ Organisations
Some Veterans at their own have established
organisations for welfare of veterans and their
families/widows, identify their problems and
bring these to the notice of authorities concerned.
However, most of these organisations are not
recognised and represented at any official forum.
Some of such organisations are: -
• Defence Forces Veterans’ Association Pakistan.
• Pakistan Ex Servicemen Association.
• Pakistan Army Veterans’ Association.
• Pakistan Ex Servicemen Society.
• Retired Fauji Jan-Nisar Association.
• Retired Fauji Ittehad.
Contemporary Paradigm for Management of
Veterans’ Affairs
USA
USA has an elaborate system for welfare of
veterans with long history of evolution. The first
medical facility for veterans was authorised by the
Government in 1811 (established in 1834). Veteran
PAKISTAN ARMY
Homes were established after American Civil War
for disabled and sick veterans. Improvements were
incorporated in welfare programmes after every
conflict; Civil War, Indian Wars, Spanish-American
War, World War-I, Korean and Vietnam War etc. US
Department of Veterans’ Affairs) was established on
July 21, 193013 which is, now functioning as a cabinet
level department and its Secretary is appointed by
the President with the advice and consent of the
Senate.
The Department has three main subdivisions,
known as Administrations; Veterans’ Health
Administration (VHA) operates an elaborate
health care system for veterans to include
hospitals, clinics, community living centres,
counselling centres and other facilities,
Veterans’ Benefits Administration (VBA)
provides variety of services to veterans
including disability compensation, pension,
education, life insurance etc, and National
Cemetery Administration is responsible for
providing burial and memorial benefits and
maintenance of 135 national cemeteries.
Veterans are assisted through different programmes
like “Job Skill Mentoring” programmes provides
coaching to veterans in the preparation of resumes,
interviewing skills, networking etc. Department of
Labour caters for job development and job training
opportunities for veterans. Through VBA schemes,
veterans can get loans for small businesses and
purchase/construction of homes from banks or
mortgage companies.
UK14
UK Veterans’ Organisation is part of the Ministry
of Defence which helps veterans in getting support
from Government, local authorities, independent
bodies and the charity sector. It is worth
highlighting that in British Armed Forces, charity
is not considered a stigma, rather charitable sector
is integral to welfare of serving and retired men
and women. Service charities significantly assist in
improving quality of life of armed forces personnel
during service and post retirement phase. UK
Veterans’ Organisation assists veterans and their
dependants in getting pensions, disability pension,
compensation for illness or injury and extends
advice on telephone or home visit. Veterans can
also seek guidance using UK Veterans’ Helpline
about benefits, pensions, loans and grants, job
search, health care, service records and medals etc.
India
India inherited pre-partition Soldier Board
Green Book 2017 99
 PAKISTAN ARMY
System which was later re-organised to meet the
requirements of ex-servicemen. Department of
Ex Servicemen Welfare (Poorva Senani Kalyan
Vibhag) was created in 2004 within MoD to
formulate and implement various policies for
welfare, resettlement and pension matters of ex-
servicemen.15 The department has two divisions;
Resettlement Division and Pension Division along
with three attached offices; Kendriya Sainik
Board (KSB), Directorate General of Resettlement,
(DGR) and Ex-servicemen Contributory Health
Scheme (ECHS). KSB is the apex body to ensure
implementation of government policies for welfare
of ex-servicemen and their families. KSB is assisted
in its task by 32 Rajya Sainik Boards and 395 Zila
Sainik Boards. DGR implements various policies,
schemes and programmes launched by DESW for
veterans. Health and medical care of ex-servicemen
and their dependents is taken care of by ECHS.
DESW has launched a number of welfare
projects for ex-servicemen. They can get loans for
establishment of business on the recommendations
of DEWS. Even class V vehicles of army are allotted
to ex-servicemen and widows. DESW is maintaining
its official website to communicate information
to veterans and address complaint/grievance of
veterans.
Directorate of Indian Army Veterans.16 Army
Veterans’ Cell, raised in 2013, has been
converted into Directorate of Indian Army
Veterans (DIAV). DIAV functions directly under
the Adjutant General and interacts not only
with directorates and welfare organisations
within army but also with state Governments
and skilling agencies across the country to
assist the veterans in rehabilitation. Indian
Army Veterans’ portal is also being maintained
by DIAV.
Analysis
Lack of Government Patronage
As a matter of fact, our veterans’ affairs deserve more
focus than it presently receives by the government.
Lack of patronage by the Government results into
low priority to veterans’ issues by every department
involved in their affairs. Though the composition
of PASB at National level with President/Prime
Minister as its Chairman, important ministers and
three services Chiefs as its members, looks very
impressive, but its meeting has never been chaired
by the President/Prime Minister. Even the working
committee has been dormant since long and the
forum has become dysfunctional. There is no
100 Green Book 2017
national policy for welfare of veterans. Adequate
funds and resources are not allocated by Federal
and Provincial Governments to armed services
boards which badly hampers their functioning.
Despite their earnest endeavours, the services due to
limited financial, organisational and administrative
capacity cannot manage veterans’ affairs without
government support. Therefore, Government must
augment the efforts of the services in this regard.
Efficacy of PASB
PASB is a well constituted organisation at federal
as well as provincial and district levels in the
form of respective boards. However, issues such
as poor infrastructure, lack of funding/resources,
inadequate capacity building and low priority by
people at the helm of affairs has badly affected
performance of the board. Resultantly, functions of
the board have been reduced to merely information,
attestation and verification of documents; there
are hardly any welfare functions being performed.
Some of its weak areas are:-
• A retired brigadier (DG PASB) cannot project
and propagate veterans’ issues with force,
resulting in failure to get adequate attention
and resources. Similarly, at provincial level,
the directorates, headed by retired colonels
fail to pursue veterans’ issues vigorously with
provincial governments.
• Composition of DASB is quite comprehensive
as it includes DCO as chairman and DPO, EDO
Education, EDO health, EDO Agriculture and
Superintendent Post Offices as members while
Deputy Director/Additional Director acts as
secretary of the board. Most of the issues of
the veterans concerning civil matters can be
resolved at district level if functioning at DASB
is improved.
• Almost 50 per cent districts do not have DASB
i.e. 63 x DASBs in 114 x districts.
• HWOs, a linchpin of the system are paid an
honorarium of Rs. 3600/- per annum only. With this
meagre honorarium and no incentives, their reason of
in-action is increased.
• Lack of adequate administrative resources
(accommodation, transport etc.) is another
impediment affecting efficiency of the boards.
• Due to manual data base of ex-service men and
widows at DASBs, processing of cases is slow and
prone to intentional or unintentional human errors.
• Linkage/interaction between services and PASB, at all
tiers is minimal and ineffective.
Need to Synergise Efforts of Various Departments
At present, different departments are involved with
issues of veterans and each department is exercising
responsibility within its own particular sphere.
It includes MoD, Ministry of Finance, Pakistan
Post, Banks and Labour Department etc. There is
no exclusive central organisation to integrate
efforts of different departments to conform
to an overall policy. Issues cannot be addressed
comprehensively without creating synergy and
harmonisation of efforts of all these departments
which could not be achieved due to low priority
accorded to veterans by successive Governments.
Lack of Harmonisation of Efforts at MoD
Presently, there is no exclusive set up at MoD to
manage veterans’ issues. Absence of an exclusive
set up at MoD to handle veterans matters also acts
as stumbling block in smooth execution of welfare
measures for veterans. Most of the departments
associated with pension, an important concern
of the veterans and their families fall under MoD
like Military Accountant General, Chief Controller
Military Accounts, Controller Military Accounts
(Officers Pension), Controller Military Accounts
(Pension) and PASB etc. There is no exclusive setup
at MoD, which can put in dedicated efforts, carry
out coordination and monitor functioning of these
departments.
Welfare Measures by Armed Forces
All the three services are endeavouring hard to
extend maximum assistance to veterans and their
families yet there is room for improvement. JSHQ
does not have any exclusive establishment to
handle matters concerning veterans. Presently,
veterans’ issues are being dealt with by more than
one directorate in each service. For example, in
Army W&R, PP&A, Housing and Medical Directorate
are responsible for different aspects of veterans’
welfare. Shared responsibility between several
directorates is an impediment in prompt resolution
of veterans’ problems. Our services do not have
special set up for the purpose like contemporary
armies, where separate directorates are established
for veterans.
Besides welfare foundations, other
organisations run under respective services like
Army Welfare Trust, Defence Housing Authority
etc. can accord priority to qualified veterans
for re-employment. Likewise, Services can give
concessions and privileges to their veterans in
recreational facilities established within their
domain. Facility of five per cent rebate allowed to
PAKISTAN ARMY
serving personnel on purchases from CSD can be
extended to veterans also.
Wastage of Trained Manpower
There is a growing national need for highly educated
and skilled manpower. Veterans represent our
nation’s highest quality human capital as they are
highly trained, motivated, energetic and seeking
jobs keenly. This special manpower could be
employed for Civil Armed Forces, education sector,
Civil Defence etc. A deliberate national policy is
required to utilise this great national asset for the
society. Unfortunately, no such effort is made by the
government whereby veterans, particularly disabled
ones, could be made rehabilitated to become useful
members of the society. Some departments do make
use of this manpower to make up their deficiency
and enhance their performance. Enrollment of
large number of retired personnel in police
department is an example.
Veterans’ Organisations
Though conceptual framework of establishment
of these organisations is fine; welfare of veterans
and their families, but, in the absence of any
monitoring mechanism and code of conduct, their
involvement in different activities cannot be ruled
out. Such organisations at times adopt political
agenda and try to influence political events in
the country. These organisations also collect
membership fee from veterans besides getting
support from public and private concerns. Some
organisations are being managed by retired Junior
Commissioned Officers; Subedar Mehmood Zaman
(Retired) is the president of Retired Fauji Jan-nisar
Association (District Mardan) and Subedar Major
Bashir Ahmed (Retired) is president of Retired Fauji
Ittehad (District Layya).17 These organisations
are existing to cover the vacuum created by
Government. Though, there is a requirement to
monitor all such organisations, a lot more is to
be done at the Government level.
Recommendations
Following recommendations are proffered at
Government and Services level:
Organisational Changes.
There is a need to have a dedicated organisation at
various tiers to manage veterans’ affairs as follows:-
• Establishment of Veterans’ Department
at MoD. A dedicated department should be
established as part of MoD, to be headed
by an Additional Secretary (serving Major
Green Book 2017 101
 PAKISTAN ARMY
General) to look after welfare, re-settlement
and rehabilitation aspects of veterans and their
dependents.
• Armed Forces
• JSHQ. An officer (Colonel/Lieutenant
Colonel) may be posted at JSHQ as
GSO-I (VA) to handle veterans’ affairs
and coordinate these between MoD and
services’ headquarters.
• Services’ HQ. To start with, a Veterans’
Cell should be raised at AG’s Branch
which could be later expanded to
form a Veterans’ Directorate. It should
be assigned the responsibility to
coordinate veterans’ affairs between
different directorates of the Service,
besides carrying out liaison with JSHQ,
MoD and PASB.
• PASB. Following changes are recommended in
existing structure:-
• DG PASB. A retired Major General to be
appointed as DG PASB.
• Provincial Armed Boards. A retired
Brigadier should be nominated as head of
the provincial boards.
• DASBs. Category ADASB should be headed
by Colonel/Lieutenant Colonel and
category B by Lieutenant Colonel/Major.
Patronage by Government
It is Government’s obligation to help veterans
to overcome their woes by fulfilling their needs
adequately rather generously. Considering the
importance, scale and resources required, it is
essential that Federal Government must take
ownership of veterans and adopt a positive policy
towards meeting the legitimate needs of the
veterans promptly. Adequate funds and resources
must be provided to all departments involved in
veterans’ welfare.
Efficacy of PASB
Besides organisational changes suggested above,
following is recommended to enhance efficacy of
the board:
• Annual meeting of the central body must
be held regularly and should be chaired by
President/Prime Minister.
• Working committee must be made functional
at priority to ensure implementation of policies
and oversee boards’ functioning at federal,
provincial and district level.
• Preferably, DASB should be established in each
district. However, since population of veterans
102 Green Book 2017
is an important factor in this regard, therefore,
a study should be carried out to identify
districts which can be grouped together due
to less number of veterans.
• DASBs must be made more effective to help
address veterans’ issues at grass root level.
• HWOs should be enrolled as Welfare Officers.
Their pay package should be in line with other
government departments to improve their
performance.
• Administrative problems of the board
must be resolved. It includes provision of
accommodation, transport, funds etc.
• Efforts be made to establish a single and
authenticated computerised data base of
pensioners; to be used by CMA, Post Office
and PASB/ DASBs. It will not only enhance
efficiency but also curtail fraudulent activities.
Medical. Following is recommended (in order of
priority):
• FF should be tasked to identify areas and
establish health care facilities where veterans
are facing problems.
• Veterans may be authorised medical allowance
in lieu of outdoor treatment as applicable to
civil servants. However, a detailed study may
be carried out to analyse pros and cons of the
proposal before final decision.
• Families of JCOs and soldiers may be
entitled to medical treatment in nearest
CMHs, where the Fauji Foundation hospitals
are not located within the same district,
and Government should provide separate
funding to such CMHs.
Re-employment
Quota reserved for veterans must be honoured by
the Federal and Provincial Governments. Moreover,
private entrepreneur, business corporations and
security companies must be engaged to accord
preference to qualified veterans particularly
disabled ones for re-employment. Armed
Forces should also focus on mission oriented
vocational training to veterans to be able to
compete for employment in civil. Opportunities
for rehabilitation/post retirement jobs should be
maximised through grant of post graduate studies.
Besides, efforts be made to accommodate maximum
veterans in departments being run under forces like
AWT, DHA, CSD etc.
One Window Facility
One window facilitation centre may be
established at MoD, Services HQ and all Garrison
HQ (Station HQ) to help the veterans in settlement
of their issues.
Privileges and Facilitation
• Veterans’ Corners may be established in banks,
post offices, airports and other public places
to facilitate and accord priority to veterans as
semblance of respect.
• Minimum 25 per cent rebate on trains, metro
and air journey.
• 50 per cent concession on entry at public/
private recreational facilities to include parks,
cinemas and other places of entertainment.
• Concession/no fee on renewal of license.
• Services should consider to grant rebate
on facilities managed within cantonment
limits like entry in the parks, parking fee etc.
Moreover, five per cent rebate on purchases
from CSD (as for serving personnel) should be
granted to veterans also.
Loans
Veterans may be provided loans to establish a
business/farming or construction of house on
subsidised interest rates by Government/private
financial institutions.
Provision of small and medium scale business
opportunities to veterans with the cooperation
of SMEDA and banks will not only help veterans
in earning livelihood but also contribute towards
national economy. Extension of Micro Credit
Scheme, launched by PASB to all districts should
be ensured.
Veterans’ Organisations
There is a requirement to formulate a methodology
to monitor all such organisation, formulate a code
of conduct for them and ensure that they work
under the ambit of some rules and regulations.
While their work for welfare must be applauded,
they must not be allowed to indulge in politics
and get un-due favours from government/semi
government organisations. No one should be
allowed to establish such organisation at his own
without permission from MoD.
Miscellaneous
• To provide easy access to veterans to
communicate their problems to concerned
authorities, a UAN helpline may be established
at MoD, Services HQ and PASB Secretariat.
• Veterans’ Web Portal may also be established to
be managed by PASB.
PAKISTAN ARMY
• Media should be used to project contribution
of veterans. It, besides earning respect for
veterans, will attract the youth to join forces.
• Rallies of veterans may be organised on
important days like September 6 each year.
• While it would be ideal to have a day
dedicated to the sacrifices and contributions
of veterans but to economise the efforts,
Veterans’ Day may be combined with
Shuhada Day.
Conclusion
The basic purpose of veterans’ welfare programmes
is to alleviate to some extent the sacrifices made by
them and their families. Veterans deserve special
treatment due to the sacrifices they make during
service. The problems faced by the veterans and the
support they need for their sustenance and leading
an honourable life must be recognised at national
level. Present system of their welfare needs to
be augmented by all segments of the society
particularly government. Ownership of veterans
by Federal/Provincial Governments, establishment
of a special department at MoD, addressing
organisational inadequacies of PASB along with
enhanced funding to improve its efficiency will
help address problems being faced by our veterans.
NOTES
1. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Veterans_Day (accessed on March 20,2017).
2. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Veteran(accessed on March 15, 2017)
3. http://dictionary.cambridge.org/dictionary/english/veteran (accessed on
4.
March 15.2017)
Oxford dictionary
5. http://www.fauji.org.pk/fauji/welfare/healthcare/healthcare-overview
(accessed on march 18, 2017)
6. http://www.fauji.org.pk/fauji/welfare/education/education-overview
7.
(accessed on march 18, 2017)
https://tfl.gov.uk/fares-and-payments/adult-discounts-and-concessions/
veterans-oyster-photocard (accessed on March 31, 2017)
8. Ministry of Defencee, Year book 2014-2015, p.86. (available at http://www.
mod.gov.pk/Year Book)
9. Government of Pakistan, Ministry of Defence, Gazette Notification No 73/61
as amended vide No 2277/73 dated 19 Oct 1973, No 1060/76 dated 28 May
1976, No 1645/85 dated 16 Oct 1985, No F 6/9/ D-30 dated 19 Sep 1988 and No
F6/5/D-30/87 dated 9 Apr 1989.
10. ibid.
11. http://www.paf.gov.pk/shuhada_moavin_cell.html (accessed on march 23,
2017)
12. http://pafroa.paf.gov.pk/index.php?action=aboutus&section=history
13. https://www.va.gov/about_va/vahistory.asp (accessed on March 20, 2017)
14. https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/veterans-uk (accessed on
15.
March 15, 2017).
http://www.desw.gov.in/about-us/about-desw
16. http://indianarmyveterans.gov.in
17. DAWN (Islamabad), April 3, 2017.
18. Telephonic conversation with Subedar Major (Retired) Bashir Ahmed, dated
April 5, 2017.
Books/Reference
1. Ministry of Defence, Year book 2014-2015, (available at http://www.mod.gov.
pk/Year Book)
2. Retired Officers Guide Book, Adjutant General Branch, General Headquarters,
Rawalpindi.
3. Veterans’ Benefits in United States, A report to the President by the Presidents’
Commission on Veterans’ Pensions, April 1956.
Green Book 2017 103
 PAKISTAN ARMY PAKISTAN ARMY

104 Green Book 2017 Green Book 2017 105

 P
PAKISTAN ARMY
akistan emerged as a postcolonial
nation in 1947 after the departure of
British from India. Education was
considered as one of the most
important factor in the development
of the new nation by its founders as
visible in the first education conference held
Education
as early as November 1947 (3 months after the
independence). The nation’s founder Muhammad
Ali Jinnah in his inaugural address said:
“There is no doubt that the
System of
future of our State will, and must, greatly
depend upon the type of education we give to
our children and the way in which we bring
them up as future citizens of Pakistan.”
PAKISTAN
However, later events show that this
priority to education could not move beyond
rhetoric. Several educational plans and policies
have been put forward since then but without
remarkable results. According to various studies
on education system of Pakistan, it has been
observed that there is little to no change till
the 18th amendment in 2010 which declared
Issues in Policies and Practice education as the fundamental human right
in the Constitution. Problems of access to
better education, infrastructure and inequality
of opportunity, remain endemic. All these issues
are the byproducts of missing gaps in the current
education policies of Pakistan. To fill these gaps and
formulate a new educational policy, all stakeholders
such as teachers, principals, and researchers have
to be involved or informed on policy formulation
and implementation.
Education System of Pakistan: An Overview
The present education system of Pakistan is
comprised of 303,446 institutions, 47,491,260
Major General Ghulam Qamar, HI (M), (Retired)
has served as Director General Institute for
students, and 1,723,790 teachers.1 The system
Strategic Studies Research and Anaylsis, is composed of 191,065 public institutions and
National Defence University 112,381 private institutions. Furthermore, presently,
Pakistan’s educational landscape presents
three parallel streams: public schools, private
Abstract: Education is means to transfer traditions and practical knowledge to successive generations. schools, and Madrassas. Public sector schools or
Pakistan has peculiar requirements for education in line with our history, traditions and present Government schools are run by the government
circumstances. These obligations can only be performed if our educational system is focused and thriving. and the fee structure caters to all segments of the
Despite several policies and Acts passed in a time span of 70 years since independence, educational sector society. Under these, there are many ghost schools
of Pakistan still needs a saviour. The paper is an attempt to highlight different streams of education system which do not exist, and in certain rural areas, public
in Pakistan. Moreover the study anatomises the infrastructural issues and challenges in education sector schools have become the properties of feudal lords
of Pakistan. The paper investigates the main causes for poor implementation of educational policies in for their own vested interests.2
Pakistan. The last part of the paper suggests few practical policy recommendations to improve the quality The second stream, private schools are
and standard of education in Pakistan followed by a way forward. individual owned - schools, here the focus of
Key Words: Education, Streams, Challenges, Resources, Quality, Public, Private. instruction is far better and superior, and the
106 Green Book 2017
PAKISTAN ARMY
administrative structure is more productive, that
is the why these have the capacity to produce
better outcomes. Contrary to dominant thinking
these schools serve to the lower salary classes
too, and are quickly expanding in both rural and
urban districts of Pakistan.3 Public institutes in
the country constitute 63% of the educational
system and private institutes up to 37%. The
student enrolment ratio in the public sector
is 58% and private sector is 42% with 52%
teachers are serving in the public schools and
48% in the private schools.4
These educational streams have further
sub-streams: elite and non-elite schools. Elite
schools cater to economic elite of the society,
with high quality education. Whereas, non-elite
schools are low-quality public and private schools,
serving to the children of lower middle social class,
which are in bulk. Majority of non-elite schools
are incapable to produce proficient graduates who
can win high competitive positions in society;
and thus, their vertical social mobility remains
just a dream.5 Contrarily, elite schools are entirely
different in their curriculum, textbooks, exams
administration, teaching-modes, and resources etc.
The graduates of these schools achieve high-end
jobs in society, because their training and grooming
is better as per the requirement of job market.
The major difference in the performance of
graduates of different educational systems is
their proficiency in the use of English language.
Generally, elite schools in Pakistan are affiliated with
foreign universities (like Cambridge University UK,
London School of Economics etc.) where medium of
instructions is English. However, non-elite schools
follow local system of education, and use Urdu (or
regional languages) as medium of instructions. In
these schools, the use of English is a problem for
students and their teachers. Since, superior jobs in
society are associated with proficiency in English
language; therefore, most of the best jobs go to the
privileged class of society.6
The third educational stream within the
education system of Pakistan is ‘Madrassa’. With
the delay in census, the exact statistics of these
institutes varies but as per the available figures,
there are more than 32,000 Madarassas in Pakistan.7
It is a misperception that madrassas teach Jihad,
however it is true that the imbalance in the curricula
prevailing in modern and religious education
systems has produced individuals who find it
difficult to blend with the society. The Madrassa
system produces such type of graduates which
are absolutly out of the race in competitive
Green Book 2017 107
 PAKISTAN ARMY
economic market as they have no skill to
perform outside the realm of religion. They are
prepared just for religious roles, and accordingly
they fail to avail economic opportunities present
in the job market.8 It means that educational
curriculum and medium of instruction of different
educational systems mark socio-economic classes
of their beneficiaries. This difference is also a
source of variation in their attitudes. The students
in Madrassa are mostly taught the Holy Qur’an,
Hadith, Fiqh and other relevant religious courses,
decided with the help of Ulema .9
The Madrassas focus more on imparting
religious education, and do not equip the students
with necessary secular education thus making
them less receptive to ideas relating societal
norms and trends. This restricts the scope of their
awareness of the society since most Madrassas
never touch on the subjects of modern education.
The learning method focuses on rote-learning by
the students, without giving them the opportunity
to understand the context of the jurisprudence and
ignoring development of their analytical activities.
The classroom language of these institutes is Urdu
and Arabic, mostly.10
The choice of a specific Madrassa usually
depends on the religious sect the family adheres
to. A number of students attain admission into
these schools to learn how to read the Holy Qur’an.
Roots School System – One of the Elite Private
School System in Pakistan
108 Green Book 2017
Most of the students, thus residing there belong
to the underprivileged class with no or minimal
background in secular education.
As far as admission policy is concerned,
these schools have no criteria for admission and
intake continues round the year. They feed on
charity or community help and the buildings are
sometimes erected adjacent to the local mosques,
with the imam acting as the head of these schools.11
At present five Islamic schools of thoughts
exist in Pakistan, namely: the Deobandi, Barelvi,
Ahl-e-Hadith, Jamat-e-Islami, and Ahl-e-Tasheh.
The Madrassas in Pakistan thus function under the
umbrella of each of these schools and propagate the
teachings vital to their ideologies. The examination
boards under these are:
• Wafaqul-Madaris-ul-Arabiya: Central board
of Sunni Deobandi institutions; established at
Multan in 1960.12
• Tanzimul-Madaris: Central board of Sunni
Barelvi institutions; established at Lahore in
1960.13
• Wafaqul-Madaris Shi’a: This board of Shi’a
institutions was established in 1959 and has
its centre in Lahore. Shi’a madaris teach Fiqh-
e-Jafariya named after Imam Jafer Sadiq,
while other madrassas in Pakistan teach Fiqh
-e-Hanafia.14
PAKISTAN ARMY
• Rabitahul-Madris-ul-Islamiya: This board were made to orientate the system of education
was established by the Jamaat-e-Islamia in towards ideological moorings and subjects
Lahore in 1983, and recognises the madrassas of Pakistan Studies and Islamiat were made
of all school of thoughts. They teach more compulsory till intermediate level.20
modern subjects.15 From 1990 till 9/11, financial stagnation
• Wafaqul-Madaris-ul-Salafiya: This board was and political precariousness were real hurdles in
established by the Ahl-e-Hadith at Faisalabad the advancement of Pakistan‘s education system.
in 1955.16 Moreover education disintegrated with the
In the 32,272 Deeni Madaris of Pakistan, total expanding divergence among social classes. The
enrolment stands at 2.28 million students, in quantity of schools and colleges couldn’t match the
which 65% are males and 35% females .17 populace mass migration.21
Accordingly, the world views of students From 9/11 to present, further changes
from different categories of educational institutions were made in curriculum and new reforms were
is polarised. This polarisation is, actually, a threat to introduced. Efforts were made to de-nationalise
national harmony and social cohesion in Pakistan. the educational institutions and the private or
In order to deal with the problem, the Constitution public private set ups were encouraged to build
of Pakistan (1973) is the best guide. The Constitution up schools, colleges and universities. Syllabi have
leads to eliminate educational inequalities and been reconsidered and certain radical changes have
consequently social injustice. Articles 29 to 40 been made in subjects of History, Islamiat, English
of the Constitution are quite helpful to device and Urdu.
education policy for Pakistan. These articles
condemn the class based educational structure in Issues in Policies and Practice
the country. The Constitution ensures a “uniform, Our systems of education instead of emphasising
equitable and effective system of education”. on inculcation of values, discipline, social/civic
It entrusts responsibility on the state to devise responsibility and socio-economic productivity,
a comprehensive ‘national education system’ stimulates partisan and class difference, and
sharing the ideals and goals of Pakistani society.18 agitates semi educated individuals. The education
system, as a whole, faces a set of complex specific
Contours of Pakistan’s Education System: 1947 problems in terms of policies and practices, which
till Date will be discussed step by step in the paper.
From 1958-1970, students’ unrest and politicisation
of educational institutions were the major problems
which Pakistan faced. Special commissions were set
up to improve the standard of education. However, “A child’s smile - Sign of hope
system of education did not emphasise moral, for a better world”
religious and ideological aspects. One of the major
causes of dismal performance in the education
sector was that meagre resources were allocated
for the development of education.19
The period from 1970-1978 saw
nationalisation of educational institutions. Adult
literacy drive was started also. An effort was
made to acquire consistency and uniformity to the
curriculum of the educational modules and teaching
strategies in Madrassas, government schools and
private schools. The foundation of Universities
Grant Commission and National Book Foundation
were the accomplishments of this period.
From 1979-1989, the Afghan war and
resulting drive of Islamisation influenced the
education system as well. During this period,
significant changes in curriculum were made.
Madrassa education flourished and learning of
Arabic was made obligatory upto class VIII. Policies
Green Book 2017 109
 PAKISTAN ARMY
The first problem lies in the basic
foundation of our education system as it is an
imposed system which has not been evolved
through a gradual process of policy making.
Second, the educational system in Pakistan
ignores grooming aspect of students as productive
and useful members of a modern society. This
problem relates directly with the curriculum taught
in schools. The contents of curriculum taught to
students, has vital importance as education is
not just the content of textbooks being poured
into students’ minds like an “empty barrel”, but
it is really the character & personality building
that educates and grooms young minds. The
curriculum helps students in their grooming and
to achieve the goals efficiently. Unfortunately,
our education system promotes cramming, which
impedes learning and development.22
The third missing gap in the policies of
our education system is that this system neither
recognizes students as per psycho/social and
socio- economic requirements of our nation nor it
identifies the talent of students for specialisation.
In the current education system of Pakistan,
education is not at all arrayed with national
needs. While formulating the education policies
government officials, policy makers and planners
are not aware of the fact that how many engineers,
teachers, doctors, scientists, literary people and
other skilled manpower are needed. This results in
unemployment.23
Fourth, the curriculum itself is the major
issue while formulating and implementing policies.
Our curriculum still remains confused. We
are undecided whether we should encourage
scientific and technical education or promote
studies of humanities. We are also unclear
whether to emphasise on ideology and values
or promulgate liberality. Language remains
another problem and we have no clear idea
whether to continue with English medium or
not. The current Madrassas curriculum is invalid
in economic markets and does not impart market
oriented education. Instead of learning different
subjects and gaining knowledge, students spend
all of their time in memorising the religious
materials without even having the understanding
of the material. The curriculum in Madrassas is
inappropriate for the students as they are immature
and have tender mind, and such type of curriculum
does not guide students toward positive thinking
and encourages the youth toward radicalisation
and militancy.24
110 Green Book 2017
Then, linkages between primary,
secondary and higher education are non-existent
in our education system and policies that have
been drafted so far. Number of subjects has not
been rationalised at various levels, which is over
burdening the capacity of students.25
Furthermore, system of examination
in Pakistan is also a big cause of failure of its
educational policies. In present examination
system, students and teachers focus on achieving
higher pass percentage rather than emphasis on
learning and bringing out hidden qualities and
talent. The examination is the system to evaluate
student’s learning. It should have qualitative as well
as quantitative techniques to judge the capability of
the students. The standards of examination system
must ensure the reliability of the procedures in
the estimation process. Pitiably, the examination
system is not only old fashioned and outdated, but it
also lacks the measures to judge the performance of
learners and their conceptual knowledge about the
subject.26 Our examination system only evaluates
the memory of the student. It doesn’t evaluate
them in aspects like learning, knowledge, etc. Such
things promote rote learning and negate the role of
critical thinking and analytical skills of students.
The biggest drawback of our education
system and policies is overwhelming number of
private schools. Involvement of private sector
has generated commercialisation in education
and has added to class difference.27
Lack of trained teachers also adds to the
inadequacies of our educational system. Teachers,
indeed, anchor education system. The credentials
of the teachers and their experience in the field
ensure the quality education for the students.
Teacher can motivate the students by appreciation.
Teachers can be the reason of enrollment as well
as dropout rate of the students. It is our misfortune
that the teachers in our education system are not
highly qualified and even if they are highly qualified
then they lack teaching skills. They are paid meager
salaries compared to their counterparts in the
government sector in addition to no job security.28
There is a lack of conducive educational
environment in our country. Teachers as well as
students are content as much of superficial
knowledge from textbooks as possible that
they can pour it out on the examination paper.
Moreover, social knowledge is necessary for
intelligent and efficient social service and education
should infuse this knowledge and endeavour to
make the students efficient members of the society.
Sociology and other social sciences are not very
popular subjects in education of all the classes.
Vocational and technical training are
other areas which are ignored in our educational
system. While formulating national educational
policies, sufficient attention has not been paid to
the technical and vocational education in Pakistan.
The number of technical and vocational training
institutes is not sufficient and many are
deprived of infrastructure, teachers and
tools for training. The population of a
state is one of the main elements
of its national power. It can
become an asset once it
is skilled. Unskilled
population means
more jobless
people in the
country,
which
a f f e c t s
the national
development
negatively. Therefore,
technical education needs
priority handling by the
government. It has no strategy
what so ever, to utilise the vast human
capital by imparting education which
makes pupils self-sustaining.29
Moreover, shortage of instructional facilities like
proper school buildings, laboratories, libraries
and equipment is major impediment in promoting
conducive environment for learning.
While formulating and implementing the
educational policies, the misplaced priorities at
policy planning level are another grey area affecting
progress in the field of education. In present
education policies, the system being followed at
primary level does not cater for inculcating objective
thinking and power of reasoning in the young
students. Moreover, rampant poverty results into
large number of dropouts at this level. In addition
to this, our secondary education is purposeless and
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cumbersome. It neither
prepares students to take on
higher education nor gives them
opportune economic self-sufficiency.
Finally, wide gap in the classes of
society is applicable to our education system.
We have sophisticated English medium private
schools for rich and influential, The ordinary
government schools for middle and lower middle
class and Madrassas for poor as well as religious
people.30
Findings and Recommendations
The analysis of the education system of Pakistan
and its educational policies underpins that:
• The existing foundations, infrastructures and
resources are not being appropriately used in
education sector.
• The official record shows the statistics of funds
allocated to education sector but yet there is
no system which guarantees the transparent
spending of those funds on educational
projects.
• There are various challenges that include
expertise, institutional and capacity issues,
forging national cohesion, uniform standards
for textbook development, and quality
assurance.
• The faculty staff and teachers’ recruitment
process is generally known to be politicised
in Pakistan. It is a direct result of this that the
quality of teaching suffers and even more so
when low investments are made in teachers’
training and evaluation programmes. Therefore
the teachers are not regular and their time at
Green Book 2017 111
 PAKISTAN ARMY
“Our schools - The reflections of our resolve”
school is not as productive as it would be with a
well-trained teacher.
• In public sector schools and educational
institutes there are various internal
infrastructural challenges and capacity
building issues which include lack of well
trained teachers, absence of teachers from
school, shortage of basic facilities and lack of
friendly environment.31
• Out of school and external challenges include
lack of schools, especially girls’ schools,
security issues, poverty, cultural norms
and social taboos. Parents are reluctant to
send their daughters to distant schools or
coeducation schools. Parents lack awareness
about importance of education, especially
girls’ education.
Recommendations
Following steps should be taken to improve the
quality of education and education system in
Pakistan:
Private-Public partnership: This would give the
managerial and organisational control to the private
112 Green Book 2017
owners. Through this the condition of the schools
would improve, better facilities would be provided,
a standard of education will be maintained and
teacher absenteeism effectively countered. An
example of this is the Balochistan Education
Support Project, launched in 2012, funded by
the World Bank’s International Development
Association where this lead to a better school
infrastructure and improved teaching methods
being employed.32
Teachers’ Training: The government should take
the responsibility to train the teachers and conduct
training sessions periodically. International
collaborations should be made in this regard
and tests be conducted to ensure a standard be
maintained.33 All the schools and colleges should
organise special teaching programmes/workshops.
Teachers be trained to impart education at various
levels specifically and teachers’ training colleges
should be established at district level.
Improved Syllabus and Textbooks: The text books
should be more interactive in nature and a unity in
syllabus is ensured at all levels and in all streams.
While designing textbooks, the development of a
student’s cognitive and analytical skills should be
kept in view. The curriculum should be regularly
updated and revised and the medium of instruction
in schools should be the right mix of Urdu, English
and the native language of the people.
Education Expenditure: The importance of
education can be understood from the annual
spending of countries on education, where some
countries are allocating up to more than 17% of their
budget to the education system. Therefore Pakistan’
should also spend more on improving the academic
institutions. Private schools should be allowed to
grow so that the competitive environment drives
the administration to improve its quality.34
Technical education should be made a compulsory
part of secondary education. Special classes
for handiwork, electrical, and other technical
education must be made part of the syllabus.
Policies at Primary and Secondary level: The
educational policies at primary and secondary
level must be redrafted by involving the education
experts, and the curriculum must be redesigned
at these two levels. The objectives of primary
education should be to make a child functionally
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literate, to develop all aspects of his personality
and to equip him with basic knowledge and skills
and prepare him for further education.
Objective of secondary education should be
more inclusive, embracing the needs of human
development. All the students should be encouraged
to develop some technical skill at this level. There
should be one and not several secondary school
systems. The curriculum of secondary schools
should be broadened so that purposeful and
practical education can be provided to the students.
Research and Development: To promote the
original thinking and improve the quality of
research, a compulsory subject of research and
development must be taught from primary level till
university.
Restructuring of Examination System: The
examination system in Pakistan should be
restructured, by focusing on quality of graduates,
rather than quantity. The examination system must
focus on the grooming, knowledge and capabilities
of students instead of their grades and marks.
Economic Incentives. Free education up to
intermediate level should be ensured. A substantial
compensation for poor children should be given
so that they can continue education without
burdening their parents. Budget for education
should be increased and minimum 10% of the
GDP should be spent on education as against
barely 4% which is being presently spent.
Way Forward
Slow pace of development, in various fields of life,
strongly suggests that comprehensive changes are
required in our educational system. These changes
should be premised upon history and ideology of
our country, social make up, cultural structure and
economic compulsions. It requires concerted efforts
to decide upon structure and context of educational
development in our country.
Change in education system of Pakistan is
necessitated due to a number of reasons. Prevalent
frustration among the youth needs to be addressed
on priority basis. If radical changes, based on
providing an equal opportunity to all the classes
of society are not made in educational system of
Pakistan, Pakistani youth will continue to serve
as fodder for extremism and terrorists. Proposed
changes are in addition to the reforms instituted in
2002. Even after six decades, Pakistani society is in
a state of flux.35
Underpinning factors for the educational
system’s failure are social injustice, economic
disparity, provincial disharmony and rampant
Green Book 2017 113
 PAKISTAN ARMY PAKISTAN ARMY

corruption. System of education should be enabling, NOTES

empowering and synergising for sociological 1. http://library.aepam.edu.pk/Books/Pakistan%20Education%20Statistics%20
2015-16.pdf
processes. It should also serve perennial purpose 2.
3.
ibid
Ikram Raza, A Futuristic Paradigm of Education in Pakistan(Islamabad: PFI
of education and the basic life tasks by means and Margallah Voices, 2005)
4. http://library.aepam.edu.pk/Books/Pakistan%20Education%20Statistics%20
of the basic life skills taught and learnt as basic 2015-16.pdf
educational skills. 5. Ministry of Education, National Education Policy 2009 (Islamabad:
Government of Pakistan, (2009)
Our education system needs to satisfy 6. ibid
7. ibid
economic and productive functions of our society. 8. Ministry of Education, National Education Policy 2009 (Islamabad:
It is only through better education that we can attain 9.
Government of Pakistan, (2009)
http://library.aepam.edu.pk/Books/Pakistan%20Education%20Statistics%20
a position of economic security.36 We need to have 2015-16.pdf
10. Government of Pakistan, Education Division, Proceedings of The Educational
highly skilled academics, scientists, technicians, Conference, 1951
business or public service administrators who 11.
12.
ibid
Raza, Abdul Rauf Iqbal & Ms. Sobia. “Madrassa Reforms in Pakistan: A
should be selected without discrimination and Historical Analysis.” ISSRA Papers, 2015: 27-50.
prejudice. Ideology of education is the guidepost, 13.
14.
Ibid.
Ibid.
which sets the direction of educational enterprise. 15.
16.
Ibid.
Ibid.
The quality of national education will not improve 17. ibid
automatically unless the ideology is clear and 18. Niamatullah Khan, Nasir Amin, Muhammad Bilal Kakli, Zubair Farooq
Piracha, Muhammad Adeel Zia,.Pakistan Education Statistics. Statistical,
deep rooted. Education, as a process, needs to 19.
Islamabad: National Education Management Information System, 2017.
ibid
be emphasised for reorganisation of national 20. Mehnaz Aziz et al, “Education System Reform in Pakistan: Why, When,
education. Educative process should focus more and How?” IZA Policy Paper No. 76, January 2014 (Institute for the Study of
Labour, 2014), P 4
on personality development and productivity of an 21. Maliha Naveed, Reasons of Low Levels of Education in Pakistan, Pakistan
Herald, January 03, 2013 (available at: http://www.pakistanherald.com/
individual.37 articles/reasons-of-low-levels-of-education-in-pakistan-3065).ibid
22. Annual Report: Pakistan Education Statistics 2011-12, National Education
Management Information System Academy of Educational Planning and
Conclusion Management, Ministry of Education, Trainings & Standards in Higher
Education, Government of Pakistan, (Islamabad, AEPAM, 2013)
Without qualitative change in the policies, 23. ibid
procedures and practices of the present system 24. Human Development Report 2014 “Sustaining Human Progress: Reducing
Vulnerabilities and Building Resilience,” United Nations Development
of education, we cannot hope for real progress in 25.
Programme (UNDP) (New York: UNDP, 2014).
ibid
education system of our country. Reorganisation 26. ibid
in the education system should aim at achieving 27. Muhammad Memon, Policy reforms for decentralising education system in
Pakistan: prospects and challenges (Sydney, Australia, 2005)
the directional goals through concerted efforts on 28.
29.
ibid
Naseem Jaffar, Problems of Education in Pakistan (Karachi:Royal Books, 1990)
war footings. We need to give a serious thought to 30. ibid
the value of education for our national security 31.
32.
ibid
Ikram Raza, A Futuristic Paradigm of Education in Pakistan (Islamabad: PFI
and survival. Directional changes in the education 33.
and Margallah Voices, 2005)
Mehnaz Aziz et al, “Education System Reform in Pakistan: Why, When,
system should revolve around our ideology and and How?” IZA Policy Paper No. 76, January 2014 (Institute for the Study of
national purpose. Our educational system should 34.
Labour, 2014)
Mehnaz Aziz et al, “Education System Reform in Pakistan: Why, When,
reflect our national priority and ambitions. and How?” IZA Policy Paper No. 76, January 2014 (Institute for the Study of
Labour, 2014)
Pakistan stands at the cross roads of history. We 35. Maliha Naveed, Reasons of Low Levels of Education in Pakistan, Pakistan
need to understand the importance of education Herald, January 03, 2013 (available at: http://www.pakistanherald.com/
articles/reasons-of-low-levels-of-education-in-pakistan-3065).
for progress and prosperity. In today’s competing 36.
37.
ibid
Annual Report: Pakistan Education Statistics 2011-12, National Education
world, we need to act quickly to make up for the lost Management Information System Academy of Educational Planning and
opportunities. Management, Ministry of Education, Trainings & Standards in Higher
Education, Government of Pakistan, (Islamabad, AEPAM, 2013).

“Our Children - Our National Asset”

114 Green Book 2017 Green Book 2017 115

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PAKISTAN ARMY PAKISTAN ARMY

USA’s Strategy of
fter Obama Administration’s major shift from George Bush’s old obsessions with
inauguration in USA, Mr John Kerry, terrorism and democratisation of Middle East.2 The
was instated as USA’s 68th Secretary World Trade Centre attacks and later occupations

Rebalancing
of State in 2013.1 Within months of
confirmation of his appointment,
Mr John Kerry visited Asia Pacific,
stopping in South Korea, Japan and China. It was
the first time an American official of the status of
Implications for Secretary of State visited all three nations in the
same go. Though this visit also coincided with the
Asia Pacific Region heightening tensions on the Korean Peninsula, but
this visit also provided Mr Kerry an opportunity
to examine the USA’s ‘Pivot to Asia’, an Obama
Administration’s lead foreign policy initiatives.
Pivot East Strategy is meant to be a strategic ‘re-
balancing’ or shift of USA’s focus from erstwhile
Europe and the Middle Eastern theatres to East Asia
Pacific and it also entails promised placing of 60%
of military assets in the region by 2020.
Commercial and trade relations between
USA and Asia Pacific Region are not new and USA’s
trade with the continent and China in particular,
has always been on an upward trajectory for last 2
to 3 decades. So in a way, America can justly claim
that the “Pivot Asia” is just a new name for an old
Brigadier Sajjad Sikander Ranjha
The Officer is serving in Pakistan Army
trend going on for last many decades. And now with
‘Pivot East’ USA’s enhanced presence in the region
will lead to improving relations with established
markets dotting the Pacific Rim like Tokyo, Seoul,
Taiwan and emerging ones like Jakarta and Manila.
The Obama Administration wanted a
of Afghanistan and Iraq, diverted American focus
and resources from East Asia while as per many
leading economists East Asia Pacific Region was
an “economic centre of gravity” and at occasions
also termed it as an ‘Asian Century”. So, Obama’s
new thrust in the shape of “Pivot to Asia” and later
renamed as “Rebalancing to Asia Pacific” made
good sense for American domestic politics and
Global Geo-Politics.
In addition, as per USA’s readings, Beijing
has started flexing her muscles and throwing its
weight around the neighbourhood, laying claims
over Senkaku and Paracel Islands in East & South
China Sea. USA’s security analysts also believe that
Peoples Republic of China’s (PRC) claimed “Nine
Dash Line” as Chinese maritime boundary and
announcement of Air Defence Identification Zone
(ADIZ) in seas in the East have made the region a
hotspot for any future military showdown with
global consequences.3 On the other hand, China
has time and again vented her apprehensions about
true US objectives and agenda in the Region. China
believes that this ‘Pivot’ is all about to contain
China in the East through military presence and
multiple security protocols with countries having
maritime disputes with China like Vietnam and
Philippines. China believes that USA is preying
on and trumpeting minor regional disputes and

Obama visit to Vietnam, breaking 60 years of old armies embargo.

Abstract: Rise of China and consequent concerns being aired by USA and her allies in Asia Pacific Region
are an omen of heightened tensions in the region with global consequences. This shift is evident from
Obama administration’s promised ‘rebalancing’ entailing major shift of her military muscle from erstwhile
European and Middle Eastern theatres to Asia Pacific. This is also followed by her relentless spree to win
more allies with hot land and maritime disputes with China. Philippines, Vietnam, Singapore are new
emerging dots on global map in addition to old allies like Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Australia and New
Zealand. USA’s emerging nuclear, defence and economic ties with India is yet another pawn pointing
clearly towards ‘China factor’, though USA State Department denies it at all official forums. Chinese
containment in the East has forced a Westwards march on China out of this containment through land
bridges connecting China with South Asia, Europe, Africa and Middle East, a major source meeting her
ever increasing energy needs. Pakistan figures very well in this complicated jigsaw puzzle, guaranteeing
a hassle free connectivity to Indian Ocean Region. By implications, USA’s Strategy of Rebalancing to East
Asia Pacific has opened up a new vista of opportunities for Pakistan guaranteeing huge economic gains
and stronger allegiances with higher stakes.
Key Words: Pivot Asia, Strategy of Rebalancing, Containment of China, South China Sea, Land Bridges,
One Belt One Road (OBOR), China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), Opportunities and Challenges,
Trans-Pacific Trade Treaty (TPP)

116 Green Book 2017 Green Book 2017 117

 PAKISTAN ARMY
unfound fears to gain a foothold in the region to
retard China’s march to economic development and
thus to challenge her political and strategic clout.
US Department of State’s vision on Rebalancing
Strategy
• USA believes that her economic future and
security are closely linked with the East
Asia-Pacific Region.4 In wake of this belief,
President Obama made a strategic commitment
to Rebalance US efforts and commitment to
East Asia Pacific Region. He gave a certain
commitment that US will remain a strong
and reliable partner in the region and her
resources investment will commensurate
with her declared multi-faceted engagement
encompassing diplomatic, military, and
economic fields. Other spheres of engagement
and cooperation will include energy
cooperation, people-to-people exchanges to
include youth and education.
• US Department of State almost all press releases
on East Asia Pacific emphasise and underline
strong emerging partnerships in the Region.5 It
is officially reiterated that deep and sustained
multi-faceted ties with her allies in the Region
are a priority issue for the state department.
And that US military presence and strategic
alliances in the region have deterred intra–
Regional conflicts and effectively checked
escalations on multiple occasions and that
USA has provided security to the Region for
last some 60 years. In fact, if we keenly look at
East Asia Pacific Region as a whole we find that
USA’s continued support for her Allies in the
Region is obvious owing to multiple pressing
reasons.
Though US Officials stop just short of making
a direct mention of China Factor, which for
most of the analysts is more than obvious in
view of rising Chinese clout and consequent
American concerns.
US Vision cum Latest Stand/Viewpoint
In November 2015, USA’s ex-President Obama’s trip
to Asia Pacific reflected the magnified importance
of the region for USA’s national interests and the
announcement of their regional strategy, known
as the Rebalance is the factual manifestation of
this new found realisation.6 With nearly half of the
earth’s population, 1/3 of global GDP, and some
newly emerging financial hubs, East Asia Pacific is
new evolving politico-economic centre of gravity.
118 Green Book 2017
The region’s expanding trade and investment and
increasing people-to-people ties with the USA offer
special opportunities that USA will seriously like
to take advantage of. It was in recognition of these
opportunities for USA that Obama Administration
launched the ‘Pivot East’ later renaming to
‘Rebalance’ early in his Presidential term.
USA, as per their declared policy
guidelines,“seeks to preserve and enhance a stable
and diversified security order in which countries
pursue their national objectives peacefully and
in accordance with international law and shared
norms and principles, including: the peaceful
resolution of disputes; an open economic order
that promotes strong, sustainable, balanced and
inclusive growth through a level, competitive
playing field”. To achieve this objective, American
priority is to strengthen cooperation among like-
minded states through multi-faceted and multi-
tiered engagements to include trade and commerce
and active military cooperation through security
agreements and alliances.
Strategy of the Rebalance – US Achievements till
to date
USA, since start of the implementation of the
‘Strategy of Rebalance’, has made concrete
steps to further this vision and made significant
multifaceted progress in almost all spheres. USA’s
accomplishments towards this end are briefly
enumerated below:-7
• USA strengthened her defence treaty alliances
with many old and new partners in the Region
to include Japan, Republic of Korea (ROK),
Australia, Philippines, Singapore and Thailand.
Over some period, USA has meaningfully
improved her defence posture in East
Asia and committed placing of 60% of her
advanced military capabilities in the Region
by 2020. Lifting of 60 years old arms embargo
on Vietnam by President Obama in 2015 is an
indicator towards the same end. It is expected
that Trump Administration will continue with
the same trajectory towards East Asia Pacific,
in spite of Mr Trump’s various policy assertions
to the contrary during his election campaign.
• Trans-Pacific Partnership Treaty (TPP)
was initiated and sponsored by Obama
Administration, aimed at promoting stronger
trade/investment relations with eleven other
regional countries enhancing economic
integration (It excluded PRC). TPP in essence is
aimed at countering China and will cover Labour
Laws, Environmental pollution, Intellectual
property rights, new Gold Standards and other
relevant policies on global trade paradigm.
Though as of now, Trump Administration has
retracted from TPP. However, Australia, New
Zealand and Japan have reiterated to pursue
TPP even at exclusion of USA at Hanoi in May
2017. Treaty still needs ratification by 6 more
members. Group also hopes for an expected U-
turn by Trump Administration owing to strategic
advantages it offers to USA and her allies against
China.
• Deep partnerships established with Malaysia,
Indonesia, Vietnam, Singapore, Taiwan and
India.
• Expanded cooperation and engagement with
PRC dwelling on durable relations with China.
• Joined the East Asia Summit (EAS) and placing
of first resident US Ambassador to ASEAN;
Strategy of Rebalancing and China Factor – Loud
Indicators
The strategic rebalance toward the Asia-Pacific,
first, began shortly after the President Obama took
office in 2009 and then the rallying cry was “The
United States is back to Asia”. However, historical
records indicate that USA had never left the
region. Even during the two highly active military
engagements in Iraq and Afghanistan, USA never
ignored or abandoned Asia-Pacific.8
If seen both at micro and macro level, by
all measures and standards, the strategic rebalance
appears beyond any doubt China specific. This
initiative was launched at a time when the USA
was already facing severe economic down turn in
the wake of 2008 financial crises.9 USA then had
neither the money to finance such a strategic shift,
nor the leaders had time to focus on international
rather than domestic issues. The only reason for
taking on such a strategic shift in spite of multiple
odds was, and is, to hinder PRCs march to regional-
cum- global dominance. Given the importance of
the rise of China and its implications, USA, has
no choice but to strike a delicate balance between
East Asia Pacific vs. European theatre and Middle
Eastern quagmire where currently USA has equally
high stakes.
However, ruling administration in USA
has all along and very consistently denied China
factor. Though, most of the USA’s ventures in the
region - may those be diplomatic, economic or
security openly underline China Factor. There is
also an increasing realisation in regional as well
as global political circles that USA’s overtures in
East Asia have contributed to the region’s growing
PAKISTAN ARMY
polarisation and creating irritants which can lead
to a direct confrontation in not so distant future.10
USA’s Specific Initiatives in Asia Pacific
Forging of Military-cum-Security Alliances
• USA’s decades old continued potent military
presence in Okinawa, Japan, and in Republic
of Korea (RoK) on one plea or the other and
preying on regional disputes and consequent
fears, was to ensure her global dominance
through an aura of deterrence to counter
erstwhile USSR. This global garrisoning served
American ambitions well during the era of
Cold War. However, later these outposts came
handy when US obsessions with rising and
challenging China emerged on the horizon.
Now USA is preying on fears of smaller nations
in the region and forging new military alliances
to ensure China remains at bay. Obama era has
seen a substantive increase in this garrisoning
strategy. Philippines, Singapore and lately
Vietnam are new dots appearing on World map
having US military footprints.
• Instigating Democratic Peoples Republic of
Korea (DPRK) on one pretext or the other appears
part of US strategy on Korean Peninsula. This is
sometimes through various prickly statements
at Politico-diplomatic channels and then
at times through conduct of frequent DPRK
Centric joint military manoeuvres with Japan
and RoK. These ventures are seen as efforts
to keep North Korean scare crow fluttering,
prey on South Korean and Japanese fears and
consequently legitimise her physical presence
in Japan and Korean Peninsula.
• Forging of security agreements with regional
countries and reactivation of old air, and naval,
bases in these countries are very much on the
table and most of them at advance stages.
Interesting aspect warranting notice is that
these all military engagements are being done
with countries having active disputes with PRC.
Comprehensive Nuclear deal and new found
American romance for India is yet another
aspect to this not so complicated jigsaw puzzle.
Rumours of US interest in Indian owned
Andaman Nicobar Islands right at the mouth of
Malacca Strait is also not very surprising.
• Orchestrating a New Security Regime in the
Region
• Arming of Allies. US’ physical presence
in Japan and RoK, arming of Taiwan
in a big way to the sheer distaste of
China, permanent placing of battleships
Green Book 2017 119
 PAKISTAN ARMY PAKISTAN ARMY

in Singapore and Security Pacts with
Philippines and lately with Vietnam in
combination of basis in Australia, all are
clear indicators of US’ strategic designs. If
dots are drawn on the map, it appears as if
a ‘Ring of Fire’ is being created to ensure
flawless containment of China when the
need arises. President Obama during his
last three day visit to Hanoi, Vietnam in
May 2015, very graciously announced to
lift more than 50 years old arms embargo
thus paving way to arm Vietnam to act as
an American outpost in the Region.
• The new security arrangements are being
forged as regional tensions are rising over
China’s assertiveness in the region and
• Taking advantage of intra region disputes
in South China Sea (SCS), USA has
embarked on a series of joint military
exercises with her allies in the region,
including some former adversaries. To put
realism to Chinese fears, these manoeuvres
are arrogantly pointed against China. In
that, USA and Australia routinely conduct
joint military exercises to practice naval
blockade of an imaginary adversary in
conjunction with other allies in the region.
In addition to this Joint US-Philippines
military exercises are conducted on annual
basis that can only heighten tensions with
China over disputed territorial claims in the
South China Sea. In 2012, US Marines and
Article 9 of post war Japanese constitution
thus allowing its once SDFs (Self Defence
Forces) to play a wider and more active
role in the region. Approval of amendment
by Japanese National Diet is definitely a
landmark development for USA’s policy
objectives in Western Pacific and allows
USA to use Japanese resources cum-assets
more proactively in the region to keep
common enemies under check.
Increased Military presence in Eastern waters
Last few years have witnessed an ever increasing
flux of American presence in East and South China
Seas. Especially, US battleships have an acute
obsession to cruise through waters very close to
disputed Islands of Paracel and Senkaku. These
aggressive undertakings have resulted many a
times into close calls. American surveillance and
intelligence collection flights are also a routine
affair with alarmingly increased frequency casting
shadows on already hostile atmosphere.
• Chinese announcement of ADiZ (Air Defence
Identification Zone) in East and South China
Sea in 2014 and resultant aerial standoffs
between Chinese Air Force platforms
and US - Japanese warplanes could had
easily plummeted into aerial brawls with all
potentials to full scale military standoff. USA
has already permanently stationed her Aircraft
Carrier Group in Pacific though on the pretext
of North Korean threat but its employment as a

aggressive territorial claim over waters Philippines’ troops staged an amphibious

around it, including nearly the entire
South China Sea. In this backdrop, USA is
in full swing and forming a new “security
architecture” in the Asia-Pacific with its
strategic partners and new and old treaty
allies including the Philippines and
Vietnam.
• Instead of new US bases, being too
expensive to establish and maintain, USA is
working with “spokes” as part of the Pivot
or Rebalancing of US forces in the region.
These “spokes” are to include Australia,
Japan, South Korea, and possibly Taiwan.
Thailand in addition to Vietnam and
Philippines are also strong contenders.
• USA is also eyeing at courting Malaysia as
yet another strategic partner. Singaporean
‘Sembawang’ military base is already
housing US naval warships and air force
troops under a bilateral agreement signed
in 1992. US’ WW II bases in Thailand are
still active and make Thailand yet another
partner in new US Security regime in the
region.
landing drill at ‘Ulugan Bay’ on Palawan
Island to mimic the recapture of an island
from enemies. It needs to be noted that the
disputed Islets of Spratly are located just
adjacent to Palawan Island.
• Reinterpretation of Article 9 of Japanese
Constitution. Mr Obama in 2015, after
Vietnam flew directly to Japan. During
this visit to Japan, President Obama also
visited Hiroshima where some 6 decades
back millions of civilians were killed by
American Atomic bombing and use of
‘Little Boy’ and ‘Big Brother’ brought Japan
to its knees and earned absolute victory
for USA. Post WW II Japanese constitution
crafted/dictated by USA was excessively
pacifist in its nature, seriously limiting role
of Japanese Armed Forces. Now, in changed
geo-strategic environment, USA want Japan
to play a more active role in her strategic
pursuits in her immediate neighbourhood
and even beyond the region, if required. Senkaku and Parcel Islands flash point for a serious mil show
So, USA encouraged reinterpretation of down between US & China which have also been a hotspot in
South China sea resulting in close calls b/w US Navy and PLN.

120 Green Book 2017 Green Book 2017 121

 PAKISTAN ARMY
China Land bridges connecting main
Land China to Western fringes of
Europe.
deterrent to China is not an alien interpretation
to students of geo-politics.
USA’s Views on Regional Disputes
• If one, as a neutral observer, looks at US
opinions and stance on various maritime
disputes in the Region, one finds out with
surprise that usually USA regards such issues
internal matters of related states or adopts a
neutral position. RoK – Japan dispute over
Dokdo may be taken as a test case wherein USA
has very conveniently taken a back seat and
worn cloak of neutrality instead of supporting
RoK’s legitimate claim over Islets.
• However, if you look at Senkaku and Paracel
Islets in East and South China Sea, USA in sheer
contrast has taken very definite position to the
utter dismay of China. It appears that USA’s
strategy in the region is uni-focused, ranging
from creation of Military alliances, arming of
various countries to views on regional disputes,
all is nothing but about China.
As per Australia’s Lowy Institute’s Alan
Dupont: Fairfax columnist Hugh White, US policy
makers have long believed that the territorial
disputes in the South China Sea are a strategic
opportunity rather than a problem for the US,
allowing them to “cast Beijing as a bullying and
aggressive rising power and themselves as the
indispensable guardians of regional order and
international law”.11
122 Green Book 2017
General Atmosphere in the East Asia-Pacific
Region
United States’ Anxieties about China
• In 1967, when the erstwhile ‘Cold War’ was at
its peak, Mr Richard Nixon made a mention of a
new American ambition and that is to persuade
China to change and embrace the World outside
of its iron curtain. He mentioned that “we simply
cannot afford to leave China forever outside the
family of nations, there to nurture its fantasies,
cherish its hates and threaten its neighbours.”
And in 1971, when he finally ascended to the
White House as President, Nixon engineered an
“opening to China”. This opening up to China
was managed by Pakistan for her partner-cum-
ally USA discretely in late 1960s. For USA this
opening up promised to establish diplomatic
ties with the communist giant with a loud hope
that China may embrace American values and
possibly even its system of democracy. The
belief that engagement is the only realistic way
to inspire China to liberate itself of shackles of
communism continued with both Republican
and Democratic governments across eight US
administrations. Nixon’s policy was handed
down to Jimmy Carter then to Ronald Reagan;
George W. Bush and through two consecutive
terms of President Barack Obama.
• However, unexpectedly for many Americans
today, watching rise of China in economic,
military and diplomatic spheres and
challenging USA for leadership in Asia, that
‘loud hope’ seems more far-off than ever
before. Mr Michael Pillsbury an Asia specialist
and Pentagon official under Presidents Ronald
Reagan and George H.W. Bush in “The Hundred-
Year Marathon,”— one of his books concludes
that China “has failed to meet nearly all of our
rosy expectations”. With latest situation and
developments, Washington’s 1970’s unanimous
policy thrust line of “constructive engagement”
with Beijing has tripped over and rather has
given rise to a different thought process gyrating
around a need for containment of China.
US Policy of Containment of PRC
American policy of “congagement”–an odd
mixture/cocktail of containment and engagement,
has increasingly characterised the US approach to
China as confused and a serious lack of clarity. This
has led to increasingly incoherent policies from
Capitol Hill.12 USA on one hand crave for economic
benefits of trade and support on her international
initiatives, but at the same time is wary of a
wealthier and more assertive Beijing pursuing
its own interests in the region and even beyond.
Though disagreements and difference of opinions
between friendly states is not a very uncommon
phenomenon –referring to USA and EU Countries’
relations. This US – EU trans-Atlantic relationship
is mostly based on cooperation and engagement
with no hint or signs of military competition. There
are no troop’s deployments and no analytical
view of European Theatre and military built up
what so ever by hawkish segments in Congress
and its sponsored think tanks. On the contrary,
Washington’s views for China are very different
and wary of even minute changes in PRC’s military
profile. Almost every annual report published by
USA DoD on the Chinese military in last decade or
so clearly indicates that USA considers China as a
potential threat. This annual report is then used to
justify American garrisoning in the region, forging
of security alliances and arming of different nations
in East Asia-Pacific Region. Current USA military
outlays in the region even surpass the rest of the
world combined.
American economic situation and her
temptation to maintain her defacto empire at the
cost of her ever swelling national debt, it will not be
possible for USA to maintain her profile as a global
hound for long. With some $15 trillion in national
debt and almost $200 trillion in other liabilities-
cum - obligations, aggressive US policy options will
face a rough road ahead. Pentagon, during their
Annual Report to Congress on Chinese Military
Developments (Military and Security Developments
PAKISTAN ARMY
Involving the PRC 2011), indicated a changing
balance of power with respect to China.13 Pentagon
concluded that,
“China’s modernised military could be put to
use in ways that increases PRC’s capacity to
gain diplomatic advantage or resolve disputes
in its favour.”
Apprehensions vented out by Pentagon are
unquestionably correct, but then America
uses its overwhelming military might in every
nook and corner of the world exactly this way
practically every day, if not more often.
Changed Contours of Foreign Policy towards PRC
United States’ New face for PRC
• Analysts from across the political spectrum
are now taking a different view of USA
-PRC engagement. American policy of
“congagement”, a weird blend of containment
and engagement in view of almost all lead
think tanks of the world has reached its turning
point by all criterions. So the US approach to
China which was increasingly characterised
as confused and reflective of a grave lack of
clarity is drawing its new contours.14 This
change in American foreign policy, towards
Asia Pacific and China is clearly apparent
through an unending spate of analytical and
advisory reports from leading academic centres
and think tanks, clearly proposing everything
from military response against China to
extensive and wide range of economic-cum-
diplomatic concessions. These new contours
are excessively marred by cynicism, suspicion
and pessimistic approach towards present
course of USA-PRC relations.
• United States’ signature “Pivot to Asia” is
aimed to keep her hold on Asia’s vast resources
Green Book 2017 123
 PAKISTAN ARMY
in what Americans say an “Asian Century”.
And also to tame down anxious “friends” and
allies in the region through increased military
presence in the region.15 USA’s senior foreign
policy experts and advisers both of Democratic
and Republican affiliations in their reports
have suggested repeatedly that President Xi
Jinping is more interested in becoming World
Number 1, rather than co-existing with the USA.
This viewpoint goes at odd with USA’s dream
of maintaining international pecking order
with USA at its apex, even forcibly, if deemed
essential.16
• Most of the regional as well as International
spectators now take it that PRC is a rival and
not “strategic partner” as claimed by the
Obama administration. Even on the TPP (Trans
Pacific Partnership) front President Obama told
The Wall Street Journal that “if we don’t write
the rules, China will write the rules out in that
region”. On economic front, US-PRC relations
are increasingly under strain with American
Chambers of Commerce (in both Shanghai
and Beijing) complained about increasing
regulatory and legal scrutiny from the PRC
government.17
• This on-going show off between USA and PRC
South China Sea regard marred with marry time disputes giving casus basic to US for
intervention. US Pivot Asia entails places of 60% USA / mil Naval asserts in 2020.
124 Green Book 2017
is way different from erstwhile Cold War era
blink less eye-to-eye gazing that marked NATO
and Warsaw Pact troops, ICBMs and tanks
standoff where in-spite of all frowning at each
other across lines but no one dared to trip over
red line. China–USA brinksmanship of today
is quite different from Cold War standoff. Now
USA and China have started to view each other
not as partners, competitors or rivals but as
adversaries. And East China Sea and South
China Sea are full of multiple trigger points
and a zone of possible major showdown with
Global implications.18
• In May 2014, Admiral William Locklear,
commander of US Pacific forces, admitted in
a session on security during the WEF (World
Economic Forum) on East Asia, that Asia-
Pacific is the most militarised region in the
world and with rapidly growing economies,
there is a corresponding “rapid growth of
military equipment”. He said, that “this heavy
militarisation could lead to troubles and to
avoid this, there has to be some kind of security
architecture”. And Admiral William Locklear
subsequently explored this new “architecture”
at a closed-door WEF meeting with Philippines’
officials and security experts of ASEAN within
the ambit of EDCA. Philippines and USA are still
refining the Enhanced Defence Cooperation
Agreement (EDCA), signed during President
Obama’s visit to Philippines earlier in 2014.
• All above mentioned US sponsored “Security
architecture”, in Asia-Pacific and many more
military engagements with so many more
nations in the region, has been going on for
some time now, ringing alarm bells both for
China and independent observers alike. Some
independent analyses also predict formation of
NATO like organisation by USA in consonance
with her regional Allies in East Asia-Pacific.
PRC has been airing her trepidations and
apprehensions on these developments on
multiple occasions and forums and in widely
varied tones and words.
Chinese Reaction to US Overtures
Over a period of time, China has showed her
apprehensions on American overtures in the region.
China stands ‘rightly’ convinced about American
game plan and ultimate though somewhat veiled
objective of US strategy of rebalance. President Xi
Jinping of China issued a veiled warning immediately
after the World Economic Forum (WEF) Session in
May 2014 against forging regional military alliances
aimed essentially at PRC.19 President Xi Jinping
issued the warning as US security engagements
loudly spoke of a nexus being forged to contain
China and make Southern and Eastern waters
ever more contested for Chinese commercial and
naval shipping. US military alliances with Japan,
Philippines, Vietnam, Singapore, Thailand,
Australia and India loudly narrate and substantiate
Chinese Premier’s fears.
President Xi Jinping warned against
these obvious anti-China military alliances. He
also underlined that such measures will not
benefit regional security rather will have adverse
ramifications for the regional security mosaic. He
said “To beef up military alliances targeted at a
third party is not conducive to maintaining common
security in the region”. Xi made his remarks at
a regional conference in Shanghai in 2014 when
Vietnamese Vice President Nguyen Thi Doan, as
well as representatives from the Philippines, Japan
and more than 40 other countries and organisations
were in attendance. Though he stopped barely short
of mentioning the United States directly.
President Xi also pledged to resolve China’s
territorial and maritime disputes peacefully,
through dialogue and consultations. As guiding
principle of Chinese “conflict resolution strategy”
PAKISTAN ARMY
gave a new slogan which said “Friendship first and
Issues later”.20 In another landmark policy speech
by Mr Xi at the 4th Conference on CICA (Interaction
and Confidence Building Measures in Asia) in
Shanghai, in May 2014, called for the creation of an
Asian security framework. This security framework
underlines that Asian Security lies in Asia only,
with no space for outside interference. This Chinese
initiative is professed to be yet another challenge to
the USA’s strategic rebalance to Asia-Pacific.
Chinese Response Strategy
“String of Pearls” – A Reality or a Mere Myth.
The debate that “String of Pearls is a reality or a
myth” has been on-going since the term was first
devised in year 2005. The most common question
echoing around among all major think tank
setups since then is whether “String of Pearls”
theory is valid or not. In 2005, US consultancy
Booz Allen Hamilton circulated a report captioned
“Energy Futures in Asia”. In this report, Booz Allen
prophesied that China would try to expand its naval
presence throughout the Indian Ocean Region (IOR)
by building a chain of ports in allied and friendly
states in the East Asia Pacific and Indian Ocean
Region and labelled this strategy as the much
trumpeted “String of Pearls”. Since this report,
there are varied guesswork and deliberations going
on about possible aims, objectives, intentions and
the extent of this strategy. Apparently, each “Pearl”
denotes some form of permanent Chinese military
installation at a number of deliberately chosen
locations extending from South China Sea, through
the IOR (Indian Ocean Region), to the Persian Gulf/
MENA (Middle East and North Africa) and mainland
Africa from where China imports bulk of her energy
supplies.21
Chinese Logic behind Super Expensive “String of
Pearls”
• Chinese apprehensions about US intentions in
the East Asia - Pacific have created a realisation
among Chinese Government forcing her to
devise and implement a counter containment
strategy. US initiatives in the region indicate
an Asian NATO being created through multiple
security agreements. If US activities and
initiatives under the umbrella of “Pivot Asia”
are seen critically, one could easily find a logic
behind and extent of urgency being shown by
PRC. American physical presence in Republic
of Korea (RoK), Japan, Australia, New Zealand
and over it forging of security agreements with
countries having active disputes with PRC.
Green Book 2017 125
 PAKISTAN ARMY
• Reinterpretation of article 9 in Japan and lifting
of more than 50 years old arms embargo on
Vietnam is an indicator that USA is looking
for adding potency to her allies in the region
and preparing Japan and Vietnam to act as US’
policemen in the region. Moreover, farther to
South West, American new love story with old
USSR ally India is yet another pawn to close the
noose around China and deny use of Malacca
Straits for her wartime supplies.
• Chinese “String of Pearls” appears an effort to
neutralise her blockade during any possible
diplomatic showdown with USA and her allies
with possibility of spiralling into a military
standoff. This “String” will provide China with
possible bypasses to Malacca Strait and highly
contested Eastern and Southern Waters. These
126 Green Book 2017
“Pearls” may also provide opportunity to PRC
for permanent placing of naval assets to fight
back blockade physically.
Progress and Latest Position of “String of Pearls”
• PRC’s “String” stretches from Eastern China
to East Africa. Chinese reclamation drive on
disputed Islands of Paracel in South China
Sea will provide PLAF and PLAN much needed
offshore airfields, naval bases and other
military facilities. These facilities will guard
approaches to China and suitably fit into a
wider “String of Pearls” strategy.22
• Moving west towards Indian Ocean, a definite
pattern of Chinese submarines visiting that
region has emerged to the dismay of USA
and her regional allies, especially India. This
frequency has alarmingly increased in 2013-
2015 period. Colombo harbour in Sri Lanka was
host to a Song-class attack submarine in late
2014. Later, a nuclear Han-class submarine also
appeared in Colombo. This was immediately
followed by an official statement from Beijing
that PLAN (Peoples Liberation Army Navy)
will conduct frequent submarine combat
patrols in the Indian Ocean. In addition,
China is investing hugely in construction of
Hambantota, a southern port of Sri Lanka.
Though falling of former Sri Lankan President
Mahinda Rajapaksa and unveiling of the new
President Mathripala Sirisena created some
concerns for China, since new government
was more inclined towards New Delhi. Further
East in the Bay of Bengal, ‘Chittagong’ a major
Bangladeshi Port also figures out as a possible
“Pearl” on China’s “String”.23
• Further East, in Myanmar, with the stepping-
down of Than Shwe in 2011, relations with
Beijing witnessed a downward trend. The
incumbent President Thein Sein, as a divorce
from previous policy showed more inclination
towards western investment at the cost of
China. Though, the Sino-Burmese pipeline
and port facilities in Kyaukpyu (thought to
be another“Pearl”) remains in full swing and
can be labelled as Beijing’s major projects in
Myanmar.24
• In Indian Ocean Region (IOR), Pakistan appears
to be most promising ally and most shining
pearl in China’s string of “Pearls”. China is all
set to develop “Gwadar Port” in a big way raising
eyebrows by multiple competitors worldwide.
China is also leading market for import of
military hardware for Pakistan, especially after
slipping of USA into Indian lap. China is also
selling 8 Yuan class diesel submarines (Export
version) to Islamabad. A Yuan class submarine
coincidently visited Karachi recently, and it
was the first ever visit by a PLAN boat to any
port in Pakistan.
• There are more possible “Pearls” in the western
part of the IOR. There are indicators into
possibility of Seychelles and the Maldives
as strong contenders to host PLAN bases.
Another promising candidate for a potential
“Pearl” appears to be Djibouti. The otherwise
small and not very well known African state
appears to have offered China the opportunity
to establish a permanent facility at ‘Obock
Harbour’.25
Carrier US Navy pacific fleet frequently
roams East and South China Sea on Plea of
N Koreans instigations.
PAKISTAN ARMY
China’s March West – Revival of Silk Route-cum-
OBOR
China’s March West – a way out of Containment
Over a period of time, United States’ “Pivot to
Asia”, later renamed as “strategy of Rebalance”
(to reduce arrogance enshrined in the earlier term)
has seriously cramped PRC’s independence and
freedom of movement in her Eastern Waters. USA’s
drive to create new military-cum-security related
alliances and ever increased USAN presence in
East and South China Sea has literally converted
erstwhile Chinese front yard into her backyard.
As of now, Chinese SLOCs running through Indian
Ocean, passing through Malacca Strait and South
China Sea are increasingly contested and vulnerable
to hazards like a blockade in times of hostilities,
putting a big question mark on China’s survival and
sustenance in times of war.26
To address these fears and vulnerabilities,
and guarantee her survival in times of war, China
gave a concept of “New Silk Road, New Dreams”.
This Chinese “New Silk Road” or more commonly
known as One Belt One Road (OBOR) is infact her
overland “March West” and her way out of this
containment. China’s Xinhua News published a
series of articles giving the clearest look so far at
China’s vision for its Silk Road Economic Belt as
well as the Maritime Silk Road. It also released a
map showing China’s ambitious visions for the
“New Silk Road” and “New Maritime Silk Road.”
This map shows the distinct vision to date of the
range, layout and scope of China’s Silk Road plan.27
As per Chinese official statements, the
land-based “New Silk Road” will be based on
construction of land bridges starting from Eastern
China and extending up to English Channel and
shores of Atlantic Ocean in the extreme west. Land
based Silk Route will originate in Xi’an in central
China before extending westwards through Urumqi
and Khorgas (Xinjiang), a trading hub near the
Kazakhstan border. Silk Route will have three major
avenues tagged as Northern, Central and Southern
Axis.
Northern will pass through Mongolia, CARs
and enter into Russia. It will be making use of trans-
Mongolian and trans-Siberian Road/Rail networks
and eventually end at Hamburg in Germany and
ports in Spain on Atlantic Ocean. A test freight train
has already completed its landmark trip to Hamburg
in 2014, taking 21 days in contrast to 45 days of
sea voyage. The Central Avenue runs southwest
from Central Asia to northern Iran before entering
Iraq, Syria, and Turkey. Thereon, the Silk Road
crosses the Bosporus Strait and heads northwest
Green Book 2017 127
 PAKISTAN ARMY
through Europe, reaching Duisburg in Germany.
It is this place where it meets up with the equally
ambitious Maritime Silk Road. While the Southern
avenue enters Pakistan from Kashgar, passing
through Karakorum Ranges and Gilgit Baltistan
(GB) Region, eventually connects with Karachi and
Gwadar on the Indian Ocean. This prong will be
based on Roads, Railways and Oil and gas pipelines
with parallel running fibre optic cables.
Chinese Look West Strategy - How Pakistan
fits in? Chinese ‘String of Pearls’ and ‘Look West
Strategy’ are essentially part of a larger strategy to
defeat her containment. Various Pearls (ports) on
her String are a tool to defeat blockade of her SLOCs
either by placing her military assets at these ports
or by connecting these ports with mainland China
through road and railway corridors, thus ensuring
her trade and supply routes remain open even
during times of open hostilities. For her way out of
containment and Westwards connectivity, PRC has
multiple options available and actually Chinese
‘March West’ is at advance stages of implementation
on various available avenues. A brief analyses of
options available to China and how Pakistan figures
out in this strategy is covered in ensuing paras:-
• Apparently, China’s march west and opening
up to the world through a re-juvenated ‘Silk
Route’, a combination of ports, Industrial
complexes and land bridges is a strategy which
gives China access to Indian Ocean Region
(IOR) and Eastern coasts of Atlantic. OBOR
is being termed as a game changing event of
21stCentury guaranteeing not only unhindered
flow of Chinese merchandise to farthest reaches
of the global market but also Chinese politico-
economic influence. If we look at geo-strategic
and political make up of immediate West of
China, it appears that things are murkier than
expected for so ambitious a venture.
• If one zooms out and see the larger picture of
westward openings available to China, one finds
out that this journey is marred with hazards. If
one looks at Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar
(BCIM) Corridor, this entire avenue passes
through countries under varying shades of US
influence. India is new South Asian Bride, USA
is keenly eyeing at. While Bangladesh is under
huge Indian influence and further east, of late,
American footprints are more than visible in
Myanmar. Towards North, American physical
presence in Afghanistan coupled with active US,
Indian and Israeli presence in CARs with active
airbases seriously curtail Chinese freedom of
movement in that region, especially during time
128 Green Book 2017
of open confrontation with USA. Even one can
also draw parallels between ETIM militancy in
Xinjiang, situation in Afghanistan and Islamic
Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU) linkages with
CARs. Region has a ready made recipe and all
essential ingredients to give a serious flip to
East Turkmenistan Islamic movement (ETIM)
anti state activities in mainland China to the
sheer disadvantage to OBOR initiative.
• In this extremely complex politico-eco-military
tug of war, only guaranteed avenue available to
nurture Chinese dream of One Belt One Road
and her way out of Strategic Containment
is through Pakistan. Pakistan and China
are time tested friends and this is one area
wherein all segments of Pakistani society
may it be political, religious or military all are
on one page. Both countries’ top leadership
publicly term their friendship as Higher than
the Himalayas, Deeper than the deepest
Oceans and sweeter than honey. Recent
developments in the region like Indo-US
Strategic partnership, formation of Shanghai
Cooperation Organisation (SCO) and emerging
Sino-Russian closeness coupled with Pakistan’s
tilt towards this new emerging Sino-Russian
strategic equation makes her a trustworthy ally
and a friend and the most guaranteed-cum-
hassle free rout out of containment.
Implications for Pakistan
• Though Pakistan-China equation is not new
at global political stage, but Pakistan playing
key role in orchestrating Chinese strategy to
defeat her containment squarely makes many
eyebrows to raise. In addition, developing
closeness between Pakistan and Russia is yet
another bad omen for many in the international
community. Situation demands that in
foreseeable future, Pakistan has to tread this
route very carefully, keep a delicate balance
and maintain a calculated inclination towards
China and Russia thus guarding own national
honour and integrity. At no time Pakistan
should be giving an impression of a pawn in
their hands. We need to deliberately craft our
foreign policy options and strike a balanced
outlook and tread a middle path while dealing
with USA, EU and Middle East, especially with
respect to well trumpeted but controversial
Islamic Military Alliance under KSA.
• Pakistan also needs to ensure CPEC meets
its anticipated time lines and essential
benchmarks. Law and Order and foreign
sponsored sabotage activities to disrupt various
projects is a serious challenge for Pakistan.
Balochistan, due to her proximity to Afghanistan
and Iran, has clear foreign footprints wherein
hostile Intelligence outfits, especially that
of India are directly orchestrating a spate of
terrorism to de-rail CPEC. Pakistan need to
positively engage Afghanistan and highlight
benefits they can accrue from Pakistan while
capitalising on CPEC. On the other side, Iran
is a sign of our flawed national foreign policy.
With no active dispute and in-spite of so much
common we have yet failed to win a potential
ally. Pakistan need to engage all its neighbours
and propagate notion of ‘Shared Economic
Destiny’ highlighting collective economic
dividends of CPEC for the entire neighbourhood.
India can also be offered a share in CPEC on
certain conditions and mutually agreed
terms. Increased stakes will cramp space for
negativity and control foreign interference.
• CPEC is bound to have a profound impact on
Pakistan’s economy. In order to ensure that
fair and real dividends reach common people,
ToRs of all agreements between China and
GoP undertaken under umbrella of CPEC must
be crafted with excessive deliberations by
economic experts of repute and integrity. These
agreements also be made public to ensure
complete visibility and transparency. It is very
important that ownership of entire initiative
must rest with Pakistan. We must understand
that Chinese stakes are much higher than those
of ours, so we must be in the driving seat of CPEC.
All projects also need be subjected to third party
auditing at every stage of implementation to
ensure fairness.
Conclusion
Rise of China is a reality and its bitterness for status
quo World leadership is even a larger reality. China’s
march to development, her efforts to assert herself
at regional and global level translates conveniently
into a challenge for existing ruling elite of the World.
President Obama’s new thrust in the shape of “Pivot
to Asia” and later rephrased as “Rebalancing to Asia-
Pacific” made good sense for American Global Geo-
Politics and policy orientation. This ‘Pivot to Asia’
has forced PRC to look westwards for her way out
of multifaceted containment in the East. This game
of push and pulls has given Pakistan a God given
opportunity being most trustworthy and shortest route
for PRC to access Western markets. This development
when translated physically into CPEC, will grant
PAKISTAN ARMY
Pakistan a status wherein entire region will benefit
from Pakistan. It is beyond doubt that economic
interdependencies nurture positive relations and
mitigate irritants and disputes.
NOTES
1. The Atlantic, What Exactly Does It Mean That the US Is Pivoting to Asia? And
2.
will it last? Matt Schiavenza, Apr 15, 2013, China
Ibid 1
3. Ibid 2
4. The White House, Office of the Press Secretary, “FACT SHEET: Advancing the
Rebalance to Asia and the Pacific” November 16, 2015
5.
6.
Ibid 4
THE DIPLOMAT: “Fixing the US Rebalance to the Asia-Pacific” By David Lai
and Cameron Stevens, June 12, 2014
7. Ibid 6
8. China.Org.cn Dated 21 March 2016, US’ empire state of mind, By Doug
9.
Bandow, December 27, 2011
Ibid 9
10. Ibid 10
11. It’s official: America has a China-containment policy By Peter Lee on June 17,
2015 in Asia Times News & Features, China
12. ELECTRONIC FRONTIER FOUNDATION, Defending your rights in the digital
World, Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement
13. Ibid 14
14. ELECTRONIC FRONTIER FOUNDATION, Defending your rights in the digital
World, Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement
15. In Washington, a Strategic Shift on China—Toward Containment, By Bill
Powell, On 4/29/15, The NEWSWEEK
16. Ibid 19
17. Ibid 20
18. Ibid 21
19. REUTERS, China’s Xi issues veiled warning to Asia over military alliances
SHANGHAI, Wed May 21, 2014, By John Ruwitch
20. It’s official: America has a China-containment policy, By Peter Lee on June 17,
2015 in Asia Times News & Features, China
21. The Diplomat “China’s ‘New Silk Road’ Vision Revealed” By Shannon Tiezzi,
22.
May 09, 2014
The Diplomat “Where Is the ‘String of Pearls’ in 2015?”, By Benjamin David
Baker, October 05, 2015
Bibliography
1. The Atlantic, What Exactly Does It Mean That the US Is Pivoting to Asia?And
will it last? Matt Schiavenza, Apr 15, 2013, China
2. The White House, Office of the Press Secretary, “FACT SHEET: Advancing the
Rebalance to Asia and the Pacific” November 16, 2015
3. THE DIPLOMAT: “Fixing the US Rebalance to the Asia-Pacific” By David Lai
4.
and Cameron Stevens, June 12, 2014
China.Org.cn Dated 21 March 2016, US’ empire state of mind, By Doug
Bandow, December 27, 2011
5. It’s official: America has a China-containment policy By Peter Lee on June 17,
2015 in Asia Times News & Features, China
6. ELECTRONIC FRONTIER FOUNDATION, Defending your rights in the digital
World, Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement.
7. The Diplomat “Where Is the ‘String of Pearls’ in 2015?”, By Benjamin David
Baker, October 05, 2015.
8. In Washington, a Strategic Shift on China - Toward Containment, By Bill
9.
Powell, On 4/29/15, The NEWSWEEK.
WikiLeaks, Secret Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPP) - IP Chapter, 13
November 2013
10. PhilSTAR Global, US forming new security alliance in Asia-Pacific, (The
Philippines Star) updated May 25, 2014.
11. Air & Space Power Journal, March–April 2012, The International Feature, The
Australian Factor in the United States’ Western Pacific Strategy by Liao Kai.
12. World Socialist Website (wsws.org), Published by the International Committee
of the Fourth International (ICFI) US-Philippine military exercises directed
against China, By Peter Symonds, 26 April 2012.
13. BBC News, Why is there tension between China and the Uighurs? 26
September 2014, Section China.
14. Council on Regional Relations, China, The East Turkamanistan Islamic
Movement (ETIM), Authors: BeinaXu, Holly Fletcher, and Jayshree Bajoria,
Updated: September 4, 2014.
15. REUTERS, China’s Xi issues veiled warning to Asia over military alliances
SHANGHAI, Wed May 21, 2014, By John Ruwitch.
16. It’s official: America has a China-containment policy, By Peter Lee on June 17,
2015 in Asia Times News & Features, China.
17. In Washington, a Strategic Shift on China—Toward Containment, By Bill
18.
Powell, On 4/29/15, The NEWSWEEK.
INVESTOPEDIA, US. vs China Military Budget, By David Floyd | April 30, 2015.
19. PETER G Peterson Foundation, The United States spends more on defence
than the next seven countries combined, Apr 18, 2016.
20. The Diplomat “China’s ‘New Silk Road’ Vision Revealed” By Shannon Tiezzi,
21.
May 09, 2014.
The Diplomat “Where Is the ‘String of Pearls’ in 2015?”, By Benjamin David
Baker, October 05, 2015.
22. The Diplomat “China’s ‘New Silk Road’ Vision Revealed” By Shannon Tiezzi,
May 09, 2014.
Green Book 2017 129
 R
PAKISTAN ARMY PAKISTAN ARMY

Pakistan’s
ealism remains the foundation
school of thought for any foreign
policy analyst. Realists are the
traditionalists in International
Relations and Security Studies.1
foreign policy must be to ensure: the integrity of the
nation’s territory, of its political institutions and of
its culture. Thus the core objective of foreign policy
remains national security.
However, “National Security as an

Foreign Policy
Thus, the core assumption of Ambiguous Symbol”, authored by Arnold Wolfers,
groupism, egoism and power-centrism continue to some over fifty years ago, suggested foreign policy is
be used to justify foreign policy behaviour,2 which dictated by the national interest, more specifically
is built around national interest. by the national security interests.3 Lippmann gave
The concept of the national interest in a functional understanding of it as; “A nation
Dr. Huma Baqai is an Associate
Professor, Department of Social Sciences
In Changing Regional foreign policy making became the core focus to the
development of Realism in post-Second World War
has security when it does not have to sacrifice
its legitimate interests to avoid war and is able,
and Director Public Affairs &
Communication, Institute of Business
and Global Dynamics years and continues to dominate both the academia
and governments. Morganthau brought the concept
if challenged to maintain them by war”.4
National security centrist approach from
Administration, Karachi
to prominence, stating that the fundamental aim of the realist school is rooted in the Thomas Hobbes’
view of state interactions, synonymous to a state
Abstract: Pakistan’s foreign policy is turning a new leaf. Perhaps for the first time in 70 years the region- of war of all against all; thus the core objective of
al and global dynamics have allowed Pakistan to make foreign policy choices that are not a construct of foreign policy is to ensure survival of the state. For
regional global constraints and compulsions. This has direct manifestations for the bilateral equation of the realist, the basic national interest of all states,
conflict with India. The relationship that Pakistan has with India, it’s not just about peace in South Asia. is national security, where politics is for survival
It is intrinsically linked to the global struggle against terror, violent extremism and peace in Afghanistan and not progress. Progress is important, but is not
to name a few. Pakistan is, and will remain, a pivot state in the region. The paradigm shift in Pakistan’s of prime importance. Applying the theories to the
foreign policy from geo-politics to geo-economics has the following dimensions: contemporary inter-state relations of South Asia, it
• Direct stakes in conflict resolution, peace and stability in the region is evident that all states play power politics.
• Strategic economic convergence with China According to Morganthau, the lust for
• Improved relations with Iran and Russia power results in three types of foreign policy,
• Desire for a functional relationship with India behaviours or thrust i.e:
• A balanced relationship with Washington and Riyadh • Policy of the status quo
Pakistan is fast becoming a country investing in economic growth, regional connectivity and peace. The • Policy of imperialism
policy thrust of Pakistan is focused on neutralising conflicts inside its territory and improving relations • Policy of prestige 5
with its neighbours. The theoretical construct of Pakistan’s foreign policy is that it is a security state exer- A similar explanation was also put forward by
cising defensive realism. Arnold Wolfers (1984,106), that “differences in
Key words: Foreign Policy, Defensive Realism, Regional Peace purpose for which power is sought… accounts
for some of the great variations in the scope and
intensity of the quest for influence and power.”6
Saudi Armed Forces Contingent participating In Pakistan
Day Parade – 23rd March 2017
Realist response to the criticism of its thrust is
Defensive Realism, which is negotiated by state
security; whereas the Offensive Realism gives the
justification of status quo.
The Defensive realists like Kenneth Waltz
(1979) maintain that it is unwise for states to try to
maximise their share of world power, because the
system will punish them if they attempt to gain too
much power. The pursuit of hegemony, they argue,
is especially foolhardy.7
Whereas, the opposing voices as John
Mearsheimer argues that it makes good strategic
sense for states to gain as much power as possible
and, if the circumstances are right, to pursue
hegemony. The argument is not that conquest or
domination is good in itself, but instead that having
overwhelming power is the best way to ensure
one’s own survival. For classical realists, power
is an end in itself; for structural realists, power

130 Green Book 2017 Green Book 2017 131

 PAKISTAN ARMY
is a means to an end and the ultimate end is
survival.8
Stephen P. Cohen in his book “Shooting for
a Century” on India and Pakistan, categorically says
India-Pakistan rivalry is likely to endure for several
more decades-even to 2047, a century”.9 95% of the
world conflicts are resolve-able, only 5 % are not,
the India-Pakistan dispute is the longest lasting in
the latter group.10
Realists are great lovers of history,
according to them history teaches them that war
and conflict are norms in international relations.
Conflict and competition may result in aggressive
outlets and thus state must be ready to defend
itself, assuming the structure of international
politics in anarchic, where the minimum objective
is a balance of power.
Policy of Status Quo:
In his seminal work, “Politics among Nations”,
Morgenthau defines the status quo as the
“maintenance of the distribution of the power that
exists at a particular moment in the history”. The
concept of status quo derives from status quo ante
bellum, “which implies a return to the distribution
of power before a war.
This can be easily applied to the politics of
South Asia, where the legacy of partition continues
to haunt Pakistan-India relations. The study reveals
that the military power equation on the Pakistan’s
side is a defensive realist state, and India as an
offensive realist state.
Policy of Imperialism:
Imperialism is a manifestation of the balance of
power, aiming to achieve a favourable change in
the status quo. The objective is enhancement of
power by decreasing the strategic and political
vulnerability of the nation.
Economic, cultural and military
imperialism are themes that dictate the politics of
South Asia, whether it is India-Pakistan relations,
China’s rising economic power or US-Pakistan
relations.
Policy of Prestige:
Policy of prestige is central to the argument that
Morganthau built. The prestige is perception and
reputation of a nation’s power. Prestige might, or
might not, have any connection with reality. This
is how foreign observers perceive power behaviour,
and may be as important as power itself. It is
defined as a group sharing a certain second level
132 Green Book 2017
belief; each member’s beliefs that the rest believe
that a party has a certain desireable quality.
Contextualising Pakistan’s Foreign Policy:
Pakistan was named as one of the nine pivotal
states whose future evolution would not only
determine the fate of the South Asian region
but would also effect international stability,
said historian Paul Kennedy. 11
Pivotal states are typically middle ranked countries,
in which any transformation of polity or behaviour
could have a profound and lasting impact on
their region, and possibly the wider world. As per
Business Monitor International (BMI) research,
Pakistan is categorised as one on the basis of its
strategic value, which includes its large population,
its status as a Muslim state, it being a front line
state in war on terror and world’s sole Muslim
nuclear state. The sources of instability identified
for Pakistan are Political Schism, Islamist militants,
adjacency to Afghanistan. The issues at stake are
Power balance in South Asia, future of political
Islam, nuclear proliferation and interestingly
India’s security.12
The power dynamics of the South Asian
region is changing at an unprecedented pace.
The emerging power and assertiveness of China
is manifested in the form of its growing economic
and military power, rising political influence,
a distinctive diplomatic voice and increasing
involvement in regional and multilateral issues.
The growing convergence between
Pakistan and China and perhaps Russia and a west-
ward looking India, is bringing about a paradigm
shift in the politics and power equation of the
region. The blooming Indo-US strategic alliance is
also changing the balance of power in the region.
The new found intimacy between US and India
will definitely alter the Russian image of the India
and will contribute to a shift in its Asian policies.
To add to all this is the new Iran, economically de-
strangulated and displaying political pragmatism
after a very long time. This becomes more significant
in the backdrop of a very unstable Middle East, and
a conflict entangled Saudi Arabia.
Nowadays Pakistan’s foreign policy is
dynamic in nature, it has options and choices. The
Chinese “String of Pearl” strategy and US strategy
to contain China, both have Pakistan as a major
player, giving Pakistan dual relevance with China.
Pakistan is trying to balance its relation shifts both
between Saudi Arabia and Iran, and also with China
PAKISTAN ARMY
and United States. US, especially, is not looking for
co-operation but submission or subservience.
The new independence of action, yet to
be recognised more fully is both refreshing and
challenging. Some observers may think China’s
One Belt One Road initiative, in which Pakistan has
emerged as a front line state, is a contributing factor.
Although, it has changed the power and economic
dynamics of the region, and there is no doubt that
China has given Pakistan a solid commitment to
bolster both its political economy as well security.
Pakistan is now cultivating the eastern
bloc, it is cognisant that foreign policy decision
independence is only achievable if it sustains its
relation with China and consolidates them with
Russia and Iran. The east ward trend in Pakistan’s
foreign policy should only be viewed in terms
of creating options and choices. Washington
and Riyadh are important countries for Pakistan
and moreover one relationship should not come
at the expense of the other. Pakistan is moving
towards a strategy of improved relations with all its
neighbours and beyond.
The country for the last two decades has
been embroiled in conflicts. It had to deal with both
their operational dimensions and aftermath. This
continues to be the case. According to the South
Asian Terrorism Portal, Pakistan endured one of the
heaviest tolls in the world with over 21,158 civilian
fatalities between 2003 and 2016.13 Pakistan’s
forces have conducted numerous operations in
various parts of the country since 2001 to address
the situation. Terror attacks in the country have
declined up to 80%, since the deadliest attack on
Army Public School, Peshawar. 14
The Army Chief has termed the year 2016
the year of annihilation of terrorists.15 In two
consecutive meetings in the month of June at GHQ,
one with the Formation Commanders16 and the
other with the civilian leadership,17 the commitment
to prevent hostile intelligence agencies to foment
trouble inside Pakistan and sabotage CPEC was
endorsed. Furthermore, Army Chief also stated
that operations against terrorists of all hue
and colour will continue and Pakistan
wouldn’t allow its land to be used
for terrorist activities against its
neighbours.18
The foreign policy
outlook of Pakistan has
changed because of the
emerging new realities
of the region that
include the shifting of
Green Book 2017 133
 PAKISTAN ARMY
the economic fulcrum from the west to the
east, is perhaps a very pertinent development
which has brought about a paradigm shift in
Pakistan’s foreign policy from geo-politics to
geo-economics. To respond to the same, It is now
for several years, committed to tackle terrorism
and corruption at all levels, it has also displayed
a genuine desire to improve relations with
Afghanistan, Iran and India. The thrust is now built
around its energy and economic needs, internal
security and stability to change the economic
landscape of the country.
Pakistan is gradually progressing towards
better regional dynamics. However, Pakistan-India
relations continue to hamper progress. In fact, the
recent revelation that include RAW involvement to
sabotage the CPEC is indicative of Indian nefarious
designs in the region. Soon after the launching of
the CPEC, a special cell was established in RAW
with allocation of huge sum of money amounting
approx. $300 million to scuttle this mega-project. 19
Moreover, RAW is alleged to be in
clear cut collaboration with pro-Indian Afghan
Intelligence Agency (NDS) for subversive activities
134 Green Book 2017
in Pakistan.20 There is irrefutable nexus between
Raw and NDS spreading terrorism in Pakistan,
their main objective is to sabotage CPEC and brew
unrest in the Balochistan province, from where
six NDS agents were arrested. Home Minister
Sarfraz Bugti is on record stating, “RAW and NDS
jointly infiltrated their agents into Pakistan, who
committed target killing of innocent people, bomb
blasts and other heinous crimes.” 21 On the other
hand, the confessional video statement of RAW
agent Kulbhushan Yadav and India’s request for
counsellor access is self-explanatory. This is the
first time since World War II that the serving officer
of another country has been arrested. 22
Pakistan-Afghanistan Relations:
The Pakistan-Afghanistan region was referred
to as the “cockpit of Asia” by Lord Curzon. The
contemporary times see them as neighbours, with
a checkered history of conflict and co-operation.
Both are Islamic republics, members of SAARC and
designated by the US as major non-NATO allies post
9/11. The relationship, in spite of these similarities
and convergences has been problematic, and is of
mutual suspicion and interference.
The hostility between the two countries is
self-defeating, the discord strengthens terrorists
on both sides of border. The shared border is 2,000
kms long and perhaps one of the most porous and
difficult border to manage in the world. Pakistan,
even today, hosts nearly three million refugees.
The relationship is complex, what complicates it
further is that, the Pakistan–Afghanistan relations
are not a simple linear equation. They have been
hostage to India’s manoeuvring in Afghanistan. The
regional proxy war between Pakistan and India in
Afghanistan and the US desire to counter Chinese
and Russian influence in the region also complicate
the situation.
The US constantly sends confused signals
to Pakistan. Duplicity of action is more on the US
side; in the beginning of 2016, Chief of US and NATO
troops Lt. General Mick Nicholson categorically
stated that targeting the Haqqani Network was no
longer the focus of United States’ counter-terrorism
operations in Afghanistan,23 later in the year, the
US demanded the exact opposite from Pakistan.
The Afghan policy on Taliban is also weak
and lacks direction, which is contributing towards
their gaining strength and clout. The Taliban had
traditionally drawn on ethnic Pashtuns in its
insurgency against the Afghan government, more
recently, disgruntled members of other ethnic
disenfranchised communities; like Tajiks, Turkmen
and Uzbeks are joining the Taliban in the country’s
north. This has contributed towards expanding the
groups reach, not seen since the US-led invasion
in 2001. The non-Pashtuns make up around one-
quarter of the Taliban leadership council and
its various commissions. This has gone largely
unnoticed by the US-led NATO forces. This is a
major challenge on the ground, inside Afghanistan,
where new fronts are being opened in the north
because of the Afghan government’s failure, which
is unable to address grievances that the Taliban is
exploiting for recruiting purposes. This may result
in the fall of record number of districts to the Taliban
in the fighting season of 2015 and 2016.24 The past
practice is to blame Pakistan for the failures of the
Afghan government.
Pakistan is constantly criticised for
cultivating Taliban leadership and at the same time
pressured to bring them to the negotiating table. The
recent killing of Mullah Mansur in a drone attack in
Balochistan, just before he had agreed to become a
part of the peace process, is very confusing.25
PAKISTAN ARMY
US defence secretary, Ashton Carter in
a meeting with senior Pakistani military leaders
categorically said, I must tell you, “I am a friend of
India”, we try to be a trusted partner of India”, said
the defence secretary. 26
India in return, endorsed the US stand
on South China Sea island dispute with China
by reaffirming “importance of the freedom of
navigation and over flight throughout the region
including the South China Sea”. The Indo-US
alliance is further complicating the power equation
of the region even more.27 The Indian Press has
also reported that Ashton Carter has conveyed to
the Indians that the US has given up on Pakistani
cooperation to stabilise Afghanistan and wants
India to play a larger role there.
India-US nexus:
The US-India relations started consolidating a
decade ago. The areas of engagement included
economy, defence, climate change, rule of law and
various other issues. US has supported both Indian
membership to Nuclear Suppliers Group and a
permanent seat of the United Nations Security
Council. It was also given a path breaking entry into
Missile Technology Control Regime, because of US’
support, opening doors for India to acquire world
class missile technology. There is also a move to
give India the status of major non NATO ally. 28
On the defence front the strides made in
recent times are even more gigantic. The defence
trade between US and India has risen from some
$300 million to over $14 billion during the last 10
years and it is growing. There is no doubt that US.
is investing in a long term strategic partnership
with India. Senator Warner, after introducing the
US-India Defence Technology and Partnership Bill,
said, “The Bill bestows upon India the status it
deserves as a partner in promoting security in Asia
and around the world.
US is also helping to sell India the Patriot
Advanced Capability (PAC)-3 missile which is the
world’s most advanced and can destroy tactical
ballistic missiles carrying weapons of mass
destruction, advanced cruise missile and aircrafts.
After a decade of shifting gradually towards the
US, India is set to abandon all norms of non-
alignment, sovereignty and autonomy in return
for closer military ties. The Modi government has
pursued vigorously the three foundational defence
agreements, the previous United Progressive
Alliance (UPA) government had opposed it,
suggesting it undermined India’s policy of non-
alignment. The crux of the matter is that India
Green Book 2017 135
 PAKISTAN ARMY
has openly allied with US to counter the
strategic convergence between Pakistan, China
and perhaps also Russia.
The US also wants its trade with India to
grow multifold and be close to the levels of US-
China trade. Assistant Secretary of State for South
and Central Asia Nisha Desi Biswal informed the
Indian lawmakers that the US-India bilateral trade
has grown by a factor of five over the last 15 years,
to over USD 100 billion and India wants to increase
it by another fivefold. 29
US-Pakistan Relations:
The contemporary US-Pakistan relationship seems
to be a repeat of what it was like in Februery,
2007, under the Bush administration where
David Sanger’s article created the ground for Vice
President Dick Cheney’s visit to Pakistan, with the
mantra of “do more”, concerns over Afghanistan
and Al-Qaeda. Fast forward 2016, after a gap of
nine years, New York Times and Washington Post
are at it again. New York Times editorial captioned”
Time to put the squeeze on Pakistan”, squarely
blamed Pakistan for the mess in Afghanistan.30
The only difference is this time the US government
has distanced itself from the public and congress
outcry by saying that its relationship with Pakistan
is important and vital.
However, the talk need to be substantiated
with actions on the ground, which seem to be
missing. The issue of F-16, Shakil Afridi, lope sided
policy on the nuclear issue and the latest drone
attack in Balochistan are self-evident. Moreover, the
signals of once again trying to minus Pakistan from
the peace process in Afghanistan are not indicative
of what is being said.
After jeopardising the peace talks on more
than one occasion, it continues to urge Pakistan
to persuade the Taliban to join the peace process.
In the same breath, US Special Representative
for Afghanistan and Pakistan Richard Oslon told
Pakistan, that “it will not have a bright future until
and unless, it goes after the Taliban”.31 There is
either confusion or duplicity on the Taliban policy
in the US. The signals sent are mixed.
Zarb-e-Azb is the largest military operation
undertaken by the Pakistan Army. Over a
period of two years, 3,600 sq. km in North
Waziristan has been cleared of terrorists.
These operations have been conducted, without
any biases. Shawal has also been cleared of
terrorism, where 7,500 bomb making factories were
136 Green Book 2017
PAKISTAN ARMY
closed down, 3500 terrorists have been killed, 992 post its nuclear programme and more recently in The Pakistan-Saudi Arabia positive
hideouts have been destroyed. Pakistan Army, has 2014 for internal financial sustainability. alignment in Afghanistan may be strengthened
recovered modern weapons from the terrorists, The recent conflict in the Middle East have by improved relations between Pakistan and Iran,
which they had stolen from American troops. The also impacted Pakistan and Saudi Arabia relations. where Pakistan can act as bridge state between Iran
army also seized 253 tons of explosives, enough to Pakistan’s decision to maintain neutrality during and Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia still remains a very
make IEDs for at least 15 years.32 the Yemen crisis, in which Saudi Arabia was a pivotal country for Pakistan.
US lawmakers concede that the on-going frontline player, did not sit well with Riyadh.
military operation in Waziristan has curbed According to the Wikileaks, the Saudi Ambassador India-Saudi Arabia Relations:
terrorism inside Pakistan. However, Pakistan can’t to the US, Adel al-Jubeir asserted in 2009, that Year 2015, witnessed the historical strategic
be held responsible for what is not being done on the Saudis were not observer but participants in rapprochement between India and Saudi Arabia,
the Afghan side. Pakistan.38 The recent independence of actions they have been on an upswing over the last two
US would be providing more than three shown by Pakistan was new to Saudi Arabia. decades. India is the largest trading partner, the
billion dollars in support for the Afghan National Saudi Arabia remains very important to trade volume between Saudi Arabia and India
Security Forces from 2018-2020. US has already Pakistan. The strategic depth of the relationship is touched to USD 39.3 billion in 2014-2015.39 Saudi
spent billions of dollars on Afghan Security,33 $68 neither lost on Saudi Arabia nor Pakistan. However, Arabia is also the largest supplier of oil to the
billion to support Afghanistan’s army and police Pakistan’s political and religious landscape is very country. India’s oil consumption rate is set to reach
force and additional $45 billion has been spent on complex and diverse. Moreover, Pakistan has to 9.8 million bpd by 2040, Saudi Arabia wants to
direct humanitarian assistance,34 the question is; is respond to the emerging politics of alliances in make the best of it. In 2012, Saudi Arabia had also
there any improvement on the ground. South Asia. This requires Pakistan to maintain a come to rescue Indian economy by increasing oil
According to Neta Crawford, a professor balance between its relations with Iran and Saudi exports to compensate for the dwindling of supplies
of Political Science at Boston University and co- Arabia. The new Iran, US and India nexus and its from Iran-post US sanctions on Iranian oil industry.
director of the Cost of War Project, that since 2001, impact on the peace dynamics in Afghanistan are India’s rich portfolio in IT and Pharmaceuticals
the Pentagon and the US State Department has spent new realities, Pakistan must respond to. The Saudi- are also very attractive to the Kingdom. Over 2.96
a total of $783 billion on Afghanistan, factoring in Indian defence cooperation is no secret, Pakistan million Indian expatriates live and work in the
the costs of deploying troops and diplomats. That views it as Saudi’s choice to diversify its security kingdom, which makes Saudi Arabia a country,
figure balloons to $1.8 trillion if future interest on partnership. Pakistan’s relation with Iran should be with highest number of Indian passport holders.
the national debt, veterans’ care and other long- viewed in the same light by the House of Saud and These expatriates enrich Indian economy by 10
term spending is considered”.35 others. million dollars, worth of remittances every year.
The Wall Street Journal, post the drone
attack in Balochistan, reported that, some peace Turkish Military Band performing during Pakistan Day
makers viewed the drone strikes that killed Mullah military parade in Islamabad on March 23, 2017
Mansur as a setback to restore peace to war-ravaged
country. The Secretary General of the Pugwash
Conference on Science and World Affairs, Mr. Paolo
Cotta –Ramusino said that “we need to interact
with the Taliban leadership, not take them out and
that the striking the leadership was a mistake”.36
Moreover, after the drone strike, that killed
Mullah Mansur who was seen as an obstacle to
peace by the Pentagon and President Barak Obama,
resulted in the Taliban appointing a hard liner
religious leader Mullah Habitaullah as the new
chief, who has stepped up attacks on governments
and has vowed to avenge Mullah Mansur‘s death.37
Pakistan-Saudi Arabia Relations:
Pakistan-Saudi Arabia relations have remained
largely cordial. Riyadh is one of Pakistan’s foreign
policy pillar, the other two being Washington and
Beijing. Pakistan and Saudi Arabia have supported
each other on matter of strategic interest. Saudi
Arabia has, in times of need, provided Pakistan with
strategic financial assistance. The most pertinent
being in 1998, after Pakistan was facing sanctions
Green Book 2017 137
 PAKISTAN ARMY
Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and Chinese President Xi Jinping inaugurate
projects through video link at PM Office
However, India eyes more than just
economic ties with the Kingdom. Prime Minister
Narendra Modi has visited UAE and Saudi Arabia
within a year in 2016, responding to calls in India
that the country should insert itself in the broader
geopolitical dynamics of the region, involving both
Iran and Saudi Arabia. The balance of power in
South Asia is determining new global equations.
The convergence between Saudi Arabia and India
& US and India are more obvious than other and of
interests and concerns to Pakistan. Indian Prime
Minister, Modi amongst other objectives, would
like to build on its ties with Saudi Arabia to isolate
Pakistan. Just before the Indian Prime Minister’s
visit to Saudi Arabia, Riyadh announced sanctions
against four individuals and two organisations
in Pakistan involved in financing terrorist
operations,40 this was to please India at the expense
of Pakistan. Modi was conferred with the highest
civilian honour by the Saudi King, on which even
the Indian Muslim community had reservations.
Pakistan, Iran & Saudi Arabia Triangle:
India is trying to balance its relations with Iran and
Saudi Arabia, however the convergence that it has
with Saudi Arabia has gained a lot more depth.
138 Green Book 2017
Moreover, Iranian Ambassador to Pakistan Mehdi
Hoonardoost’s statement that Iran is willing to
become a part of China-Pakistan Economic Corridor,41
is self-explanatory of the scheme of the things to
come. The balance, India is trying to achieve, has
been achieved by Pakistan. Pakistan foresees the
natural convergence of interest between China, Iran
and itself. The recent endeavours from the both
sides endorse the direction of relations. Pakistan
and Iran have stakes in peace in Afghanistan. An
unstable conflict ridden Afghanistan has security
implications for both Iran and Pakistan. There is an
obvious trilateral convergence of interest between
Pakistan, Afghanistan and Iran.
In fact the Indian designs to destabilise
Pakistan, through Afghanistan as a result of which
Afghanistan remains conflict-prone, go against
the interests of both Pakistan and Iran. The
relations between the two countries are back on
track. Pakistan today has a choice to work around
its reliance on the house of Saud, since China is
now bankrolling Pakistan. This is not lost on Iran.
Willliam Dalrymples’ so called deadly triangle
comprising of India, Pakistan and Afghanistan42
can be countered by an emerging triangular
relationship between Pakistan, Iran and China,
giving peace a fair chance.
The courting of Iran by India, should not
be viewed as a threat by Pakistan, neither should
it turn its relationship with Iran into a zero-sum
game. If Pakistan and China categorically say that
CPEC is not against any country and even India
should become part of it. Pakistan should walk its
talk when reacting to the recently signed agreement
to develop Chabahar port, related infrastructure,
availability of approximately $500 million for these
projects and India’s economic charm offensive in
the region.
Chabahar and Gwadar can complement
each other rather than be in competition. Moreover
it is not practical for China to use it, nor has China
shown any desire to cultivate it.
Iran is a very mature and pragmatic, it
may welcome the investment, India wants to make
in building up its port, any country would, but it
cannot erase from its memory the fact, that very
conveniently the same India had taken a velvet
divorce from Iran, when it wanted to pursue the
Civil Nuclear Deal with the US. 2004 to 2014 is lost
decade in terms of Iran-India relations, a time when
Iran desperately needed friends. In fact, India had
also dumped Russia in pursuance of modernising
its armament and creating convergences with the
West.
As for Afghanistan, Pakistan has on more
than one occasion categorically said that it is
committed to Afghan-owned and Afghan-led peace
process, Pakistan should also say that Afghanistan
has complete independence of economic action.
Why should Chabahar be seen as harming
Pakistan’s interest or the viability of Gwadar?
Anybody who understands the ground
realities would vouch for the fact that the
Iranian port is at best an option and not an
alternative. It in no way undermines the
importance of Gwadar port.
In addition to it, India initiated Chabahar
in 2003, inked in 2015, the logistics cash fluidity
and the infamous Indian red-tapism are serious
issues. Whereas, Gwadar would be operational in
2017. Moreover, last but not the least India does
not have the money muscle, China has. Pakistan
has accepted Chabahar with graciousness, it’s
not even a remote threat, if Pakistan continues to
work on the Gwadar Port and CPEC with speed and
commitment.
PAKISTAN ARMY
Pakistan should continue positive
engagement with Iran and work on its becoming
a part of One Belt One Road initiative. Iran can be
a part of it in spite of Chabahar. There is a natural
convergence between the three countries that is
China, Pakistan and Iran. It has not been invested
in.
Among other things, Pakistan should also
learn from Chinese pragmatism. For years, Pakistan
was in a strategic relationship with US. However,
China never held it against Pakistan and raised its
concerns, if any, strictly through private diplomacy.
Lessons for Pakistan and Iran relations.
Pakistan’s Relevance:
Pakistan is the sixth most populous country of
the world. The recent progress in the region hold
great promise for it, its geo-political and geo-
economic significance stands re-emphasised. It
not only bridges regions like Middle East, Central
Asian Republic, South Asia and South East Asia,
but also connects energy abundant countries to
energy-starved countries. It is the only country
in the world that is the front line defence against
global terror, for the past 14 years. It has an intrinsic
role in determining the outcome of the Afghan
War. Pakistan’s geo-strategic location, emerging
geo-economic significance, gives it multi-lateral
strategic significance making it a country that
has direct stakes in contributing towards peaceful
borders in the region.
Bruce Riedel in his 2010 article, also
emphasised the role of Pakistan in determining
the outcome of Afghan War.43 Pakistan is a country
fighting three wars, it has two hostile borders and
an internal war, it’s tackling with. Pakistan sees
Afghan Taliban’s ascendance to power as a source
of concern. For it may result in repercussions
for Pakistan in the form of giving an impetus
to Islamic militancy in Pakistan. Ambassador
Masood, Director General ISSI rightly pointed out,
that Taliban are neither Pakistan’s wards nor its
proxies.44
Going back to the theoretical framework
of defensive and offensive realism in South
Asia, the new development is that the theatre of
conflict between Pakistan and India has shifted
to Afghanistan. India strategically cannot
contribute towards building peace in a country
it uses to instigate violence in Pakistan. India
wants to hold Afghanistan hostage to its designs
in the region to hurt both Pakistan and China.
Inadvertently, US is supporting it. As a result of
which, a conflict ridden Afghanistan is drifting
Green Book 2017 139
 PAKISTAN ARMY
towards a civil war, which is a direct threat to the
internal stability of Pakistan. A peaceful, stable and
non-hostile Afghanistan is intrinsic to Pakistan’s
goals and objectives of economic turnaround.
The security and economic dynamics
of foreign policy for Pakistan and China stand
intertwined. Pakistan’s focus has shifted from just
geo-politics to geo-economics. This is in itself a
major paradigm shift. The economic objective that
Pakistan has set for it-self has direct stakes for
peace and stability in Pakistan and Afghanistan,
improved relations with Iran and Russia, in fact
even India. Pakistan is fast becoming a country
investing in the politics of economy of growth,
regional integration and peace. Pakistan energies
are now geared towards neutralising all conflicts
inside its territory and improving relations with
its neighbours to cultivate the atmosphere of
peace. Can we say the same for India, with the rise
of RAW activities in Pakistan to sabotage CPEC;
unprecedented investment in arm purchase and
desire to alter the naval balance of power in the
region?
The US’ support to all this, is also indicative
of the Indo-US alliance geared towards promoting
cold war dynamics in the region including arms
race, pitching one state against another and
working to curtail Chinese influence in the region.
Not a recipe for peace. US and Afghanistan, both
are hostage to Indian lobbies, the cost of this is
very high for Pakistan, but it is higher for US and
Afghanistan. It’s costing 4 million of dollar per hour
for US tax payers, this has gone on for 14 years. The
cost for Afghanistan is peace itself.
NOTES
1. Peter Hough, Understanding Global Security (New York: Routledge, 2004), 2.
2. Steve Smith, Amelia Hadfield, Tim Dunne (ed.) Foreign policy: theories,
actors, cases (New York: Oxford University Press, 2008), pp. 36-37
3. Arnold Wolfers, ”National security-as an Ambiguous Symbol” Political
Science Quarterly (New York) Vol. 67, No. 4. (Dec., 1952): 481-502.
4. Peter Hough, Understanding Global Security (New York, Routledge, 2004),
10.
5. Sten Rynning and Stefano Guzzni, “Realism and Foreign Policy Analysis”,
ResearchGate. Accessed on May 12, 2016.https://www.researchgate.net/
publication/237465426_Realism_and_Foreign_Policy_Analysis
6. Ibid.
7. John J. Mearsheimer, “ Structural Realism” in Tim Dunne, Milja Kurki, and
Steve Smith, eds., International Relations Theories: Discipline and Diversity
(Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2006), 72. Accessed on May 17 , 2016. http://
mearsheimer.uchicago.edu/pdfs/StructuralRealism.pdf
8. Ibid.
9. Stephon P. Cohen, Shooting For a Century (India: Harper Collins, 2013), ix.
10. Peter T. Coleman, The Five Per cent: Finding Solutions to Seemingly
Impossible Conflicts (New York: Public Affairs, 2011), 4-5.
11. Muqarrab Akbar, “Pakistan’s Foreign Policy: Internal Challenges in New
Millennium,” Berkeley Journal of Social Sciences Vol. 1, No. 2, (Feb 2011):4.
Accessed 0n May 17, 2016. http://berkeleyjournalofsocialsciences.com/
Feb%204.pdf
12. “Seven Pivotal States Facing Crucial Political Challenges In H2 2013-2014,”
BMI Research. Accessed on May 22, 2016. http://www.bmiresearch.com/
news-and-views/seven-pivotal-states-facing-crucial-political-challenges-
in-h2-2013-2014
13. “Fatalities in Terrorist Violence in Pakistan 2003-2016,” South Asian Terrorism
140 Green Book 2017
PAKISTAN ARMY
Portal Pakistan. Accessed on May 22, 2016. http://www.satp.org/satporgtp/
countries/pakistan/database/casualties.htm
14. “Pakistan witnesses 80% decline in terror attacks”, The News, June 8, 2016.
Accessed on June 25, 2016. https://www.thenews.com.pk/print/126219-
15.
Pakistan-witnesses-80pc-decline-in-terror-attacks
“Pakistan has no option but to succeed against terrorism: COAS”, Associated
Press of Pakistan Corporation, June 1, 2016. Accessed on June 4, 2016. http://
www.app.com.pk/pakistan-has-no-option-but-to-succeed-against-terrorism-
coas/
16. “Gen Says ready to pay any price to turn CPEC into reality,” The News, June 2,
2016. Accessed on June 3, 2016. http://www.thenews.com.pk/latest/124766-
Gen-Raheel-says-ready-to-pay-any-price-to-turn-CPEC-into-reality
17. “No foreign agency can foment terror in Pakistan”, The Nation, June 8, 2016.
Accessed on June 12, 2016. http://nation.com.pk/national/08-Jun-2016/no-
18.
foreign-agency-can-foment-terror-in-pakistan
“Pakistan won’t allow anyone to use soil against Afghanistan, expect same
from Kabul: COAS”, The Nation, July 8, 2016. Accessed July 12, 2016. http://
nation.com.pk/national/08-Jul-2016/pakistan-won-t-allow-anyone-to-use-soil-
against-afghanistan-expect-same-from-kabul-coas
19. Special cell set up in RAW to foil Economic Corridor,” The News, May on 11,
2015.Accessed on June 19, 2016. https://www.thenews.com.pk/print/12423-
special-cell-set-up-in-raw-to-foil-economic-corridor
20. Jawad R Awan, “RAW-NDS agent caught from Chaman” The Nation (Karachi),
April 07, 2016.
21. Muhammad Zafar, “Not so hidden hand: Six Afghan ‘agents’ arrested in
Balochistan” The Express Tribune (Karachi) May 27, 2016.
22. “490 soldiers, 3,500 militants killed in Operation Zarb-e-Azb so far: DG ISPR”,
The Express Tribune, June 15, 2016.Accessed on June 15, 2016. http://tribune.
com.pk/story/1123356/dg-ispr-addresses-press-conference-afghanistan-
23.
pakistan-border-clashes/
Ayaz Gul, “US Will Not Target Haqqanis in Afghanistan,” Voice of America,
January 31, 2016. Accessed on June 17, 2016. http://www.voanews.com/
content/us-says-not-targeting-haqqanis-in- afghanistan/3168157.html
24. Frud Bezhan, “Ethnic Minorities Are Fuelling the Taliban’s Expansion in
Afghanistan,” Foreign Policy, June 15, 2016. Accessed on June 18, 2016. http://
foreignpolicy.com/2016/06/15/ethnic-minorities-are-fuelling-the-talibans-
expansion-in-afghanistan/
25. Tahir Khan, “Mullah Mansoor was ‘about to join peace talks’ when killed,”
The Express Tribune, July 11, 2016. http://tribune.com.pk/story/1139173/
26.
mullah-mansoor-join-peace-talks-killed/
Munir Akram, “The Indo-US alliance” Dawn (Karachi), April 20, 2016.
27. Ibid.
28. “Commodore RS Vasan, US-India Relations and Imperatives for China,” South
Asia analysis Group, no. 6125( 2016). Accessed on June 23, 2016 at http://www.
29.
southasiaanalysis.org/node/2003
Overcome Challenges To Realise Economic Ties Potential: US To India, NDTV.
Accessed on June 20, 2016. http://www.ndtv.com/india-news/overcome-
challenges-to-realise-economic-ties-potential-us-to-india-1405326
30. The Editorial Board, “Time to Put the Squeeze on Pakistan”, The New
York Times, May 12, 2016. Accessed on June 20, 2016. http://www.nytimes.
com/2016/05/12/opinion/time-to-put-the-squeeze-on-pakistan.html?_r=0
31. “Indian role in Afghanistan overestimated in Pakistan: Olson”, Dawn, June 22,
2016. Accessed on June 21, 2016. http://www.dawn.com/news/1266465/indian-
role-in-afghanistan-overestimated-in-pakistan-olson
32. “490 soldiers, 3,500 militants killed in Operation Zarb-e-Azb so far: DG ISPR”,
The Express Tribune, June 15, 2016. Accessed on June 15, 2016. http://tribune.
com.pk/story/1123356/dg-ispr-addresses-press-conference-afghanistan-
pakistan-border-clashes/
33. Ibid.
34. Tim Craig, “US will seek billions more to support Afghan military efforts,”
The Washington Post, June 18, 2016. Accessed on June 20, 2016. https://www.
washingtonpost.com/world/the-us-will-be-seeking-billions-more-from-other-
countries-to-help-support-afghanistan-efforts/2016/06/17/3b6bb0b8-2f3d-11e6-
b9d5-3c3063f8332c_story.html
35. Ibid., pp. 8.
36. Jessica Donati, “After Drone Strike, Uncertain Path to Afghan Peace,” The Wall
Street Journal, June 20, 2016. Accessed on June 22, 2016. http://www.wsj.com/
articles/after-drone-strike-uncertain-path-to-afghan-peace-1466371769
37. Ibid.
38. “Public Library of US Diplomacy,” WikiLeaks. Accessed on June 23, 2016.
https://wikileaks.org/plusd/cables/07RIYADH2320_a.html
39. “Charge d’ Affaires message on the occasion of 67th Republic Day of
India”, Embassy of India, Riyadh, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.http://www.
indianembassy.org.sa/Content.aspx?ID=879
40. “Saudi Arabia tilts towards India,” Al-Monitor. Accessed on June 23, 2016.
http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2016/04/saudi-arabia-tilt-india-
pakistan-salman-iran.html
41. “Iran ready to become part of CPEC: envoy,” The News, April 17, 2016.
Accessed on May 15, 2016. http://www.thenews.com.pk/print/113354-Iran-
ready-to-become-part-of-CPEC-envoy
42. William Dalrymple, “A Deadly Triangle: Afghanistan, Pakistan & India”, The
Brookings Essay, June 25, 2013. Accessed on June 20, 2016. http://www.
brookings.edu/research/essays/2013/deadly-triangle-afghanistan-pakistan-
india-c
43. Bruce Riedel, “Pakistan’s Role in the Afghanistan War’s Outcome”, Brookings,
May 20, 2010. Accessed on June 16, 2016. http://www.brookings.edu/research/
opinions/2010/05/20-afghanistan-riedel
44. http://www.pakistantoday.com.pk/2016/06/26/features/an-interview-with-
ambassador-masood-khan-director-general-institute-of-strategic-studies-
islamabad-and-former-ambassador-to-the-united-nations-and-china/
Green Book 2017 141

PAKISTAN ARMY
Emerging
Indo US
Relations
An Assessment
Abstract: Second decade of twenty first century
has brought a paradigm shift within the global and
Colonel Muhammad Kamran Saleem regional geo politics. The principal narrative of War
The Officer is serving in Pakistan Army on Terror has largely receded and great powers geo
strategic contestations driven by geo-economics are
now in the forefront, due to the challenge posed to
US’ global leadership by economic rise of China.
This irreversible rise of China, is already translating
into a rapid global geo political prominence.
The Chinese rise goes contrary to US worldview,
as she refuses to let go of her undisputed global
leadership. Within the overall context of US
containment strategy, India is the hinge to arrest
Chinese expansion. In view of enhanced role in
regional/global politics, preferential treatments
will continue to be meted by world powers to India
in conventional and unconventional domains. It
shall give significant advantage to India vis-a-vis
Pakistan. The article carries out an assessment of
emerging Indo US relations with a view to draw
pertinent conclusions for the policy makers.
Key Words: Geo-economics, US Pivot to Asia,
Hindutva, Make in India, Strategic influence,
Strategic autonomy, US national security strategy,
Containment of China, Projections
142 Green Book 2017
I
ndia is now regarded as major global player,
not only for economic reasons but for its
potentialities within global geo strategy. As
a new cold war emerges on horizon between
two global powers, India’s clear place is not a
settled issue. The vivisection of the evolution
of Indian power potential and its relations with rest
of the world carries important clues to predict its
future geo strategic course.
Economic
For the best part of its modern history, India
remained a sluggish economic giant, with
notoriously slow rate of growth also ref to as Hindu
rate of growth. However, its human resource exports
had always been strong.
In 1960, India also started to export high
skilled manpower to the West which was to have a
significant impact in years to come. Nevertheless
it was not until the reforms process initiated in
1990s,1 inspired by Chinese reforms a decade back,
that India slowly started becoming economic reality
that it is now.
Indian economic growth has been
significant over the years, transforming it into
world’s 7th largest economy in nominal terms and
third largest in Purchasing Power Parity index.2
Current global interest in India is primarily
because of the economic opportunities that she
represents due to a gigantic consumer base,
skilled human resource and many other niche
advantages.
Within a regional context, India always
had a very connected economy to all its neighbours
less Pakistan.
Diplomatic
Indian international diplomatic clout varied over
the years after independence. Despite its size,
India’s early fascination with Nehruvian non
alignment and strategic culture instructed its
initial world view. Geo political realities of Cold
War affected this position in South Asian context in
1960 to 90. However, she still remained a marginal
player in world politics.
Despite its benign international credential,
it never refrained from acting aggressively within
the South Asia. Pakistan remained the only country
strong enough to challenge it which it tried to cut to
size in 1971.
Post-Cold War, Indian diplomatic clout
started rising significantly as it recalibrated its
national priorities to the changed realities of
Post-Cold War era particularly to reinvigorate
its moribund economy. Sensing its success, this
PAKISTAN ARMY
policy was followed by both Congress and BJP led
alliances during their respective tenures. Nuclear
tests affected these relations, but only temporarily.
Vis a vis Pakistan, Kargil proved out to
be a watershed, as it presented India and US with
an opportunity to warm up to each other. The
relationship has remained strong ever since as
US duly capitalised this opportunity to reduce the
historic mistrust.3
More recently, US Pivot to Asia brought
India into a greater geo-political focus4 and US has
started investing a huge diplomatic and political
capital into this relation. In 2010, during his
address to Indian parliament Obama said, “US not
only support India as a rising power; we fervently
support it, and we have worked to help make it
reality.” Although Trump’s rise to power has been
unsettling for India on certain counts, it would be
unjustified to assume that the course embarked
upon by last administrations, is going to change.
As Indian outlook has become more global,
it has recently shown a desire to briskly resolve its
longstanding internal and regional problems with
varying degrees of success. Pakistan, however is
continued to be perceived as a thorn in its side,
which she wants to deal with a more muscular
approach.
Within international system, India had a
mixed record and despite its efforts to move up the
ladder very fast, it still has much ground to cover.
It is now becoming evident to Indian policy circles
that India would have to make tough strategic
choices, that it could previously defer. Each choice
in this regard carries a significant cost.
Informational
India has arguably one of the world’s
largest diaspora, with estimated 31 million Indians
living across the globe.5 Lately, the influential
segments of its diaspora, especially in the US, has
been sublet the responsibility of lobbying for India.
This strategy has accrued huge dividends for India
within public diplomacy, particularly in the matters
pertaining to South Asia.
Indian media growth has corresponded
to its economic growth,6 building further on
strong legacy created by its cinema. The recent
phenomenal explosion in Television industry
and internet added to Indian informational clout.
It is a huge importer, exporter and consumer of
information and entertainment, which served to
increase its outreach within the global audience as
well as its informational influence.
Green Book 2017 143
 PAKISTAN ARMY
Military
For the longest part, Indian military capability
remained straitjacketed due to inhibiting political
and bureaucratic oversight and a typical strategic
culture. Nonetheless it continued to possess the
capabilities to maintain hegemony within its
neighbourhood. The military strategy thought also
remained stunted as a direct outcome of Nehru’s
aversion to military, and the same was reflected in
its earlier military inventories. Even, post 1962 and
65 reformations were not transformative enough to
win her clear victories against potent adversaries.
Sunderji reforms tried to shake India out
of its strategic inertia; however its steam ran out
soon due to lack of requisite political interest. Any
leftover motivation was lost after Soviet Union’s
demise, which was India’s principal security
partner.
While Russia was consolidating itself
as a successor to Soviet Union, India and US
both remained unsure of each other’s role in
new unipolar world, resulting in limited military
engagement. Short on confidence, India receded
back to its former shell to focus more on economic
reforms.
Hindutva gained ground as an ideology
in 1980s. Ironically as economy started to increase
India’s prowess for defence spending, Hindutva also
strengthened in Indian society, with a deep impact
on its international relations and national security
outlook. Mainstreaming of Hindu nationalism had
a militarising impact on Indian state and society.
Shaking out of her strategic inertia, due to her
growing clout, India has now started to envision
itself within the great power realm.
As highlighted earlier, as a political spinoff
of Kargil, US and India considerably shunned off
their mutual distrust and became close, opening
up a new set of possibilities which carries regional
implications.
Indian military strategy predominantly
remained continental. Though a two front
capability became a leading strategic jargon,
Indian principal preoccupation remained
with Pakistan, both as a function of history
and geography. India’s key focus is now both
territorial in term of defence and maritime
within the realm of geo strategy to match her
global aspiration.
The current focus on indigenisation was
met with a great deal of enthusiasm when defence
industry was included as one of the key areas of
“Make in India” policy. However, it is falling under
the burden of its own expectations. At this very
144 Green Book 2017
juncture the policy is seriously impacting Indian
Armed Forces’ critical capabilities besides creating
a backlog.
Strategic Stability
Nuclear ambition remained a central focus of Indian
strategy, however she faltered in finding a clear direction.
The confusion continued to prevail regarding purpose
of possessing there capabilities, whether for peaceful
or for strategic purpose; and in latter case, to what end.
However under BJP, India driven by Hindu Nationalism
decided to take the next lunge forward for an admittance
in global great power realm.
Ironically for India, the situation favours
Pakistan, as it acted as an equaliser for Indian
conventional asymmetry. While acquisition of nuclear
capabilities might have been a boost to her other
perceived wider regional aspiration, it simply does not
work in her favour vis a vis Pakistan.
India tried to find the requisite strategic
balance through a combination of proactive strategy and
massive retaliation. However, the glaring contradictions
and complexities make actualising this strategy a huge
challenge.
India and US Strategic Partnership-A Content
Analysis
A lot of fanfare has been associated with by rapidly
growing Indo-US partnership, going to the extent of
terming it as the most defining one in 20th century.7
Before making objective assessments regarding the
long term dividend of this partnership, it is important
to deconstruct it to its fundamentals. Although India
does not have any national security policy or
vision documents, its overarching national interests,
discerned from contemporary thought are:-
• Diplomatic. To shape its external environment
in order to seek maximum “strategic influence”
in extended neighbourhood as against the past
emphasis on “strategic autonomy”.8
• Military
• Territorial defence and maritime power projection.
• A sea denial focus and maritime diplomacy to
limit the role of external power in the Indian
Ocean.9
• Expanded scope of maritime interest from Aden
to Malacca or Suez to South China Sea.10
• Coalition building while maintaining a notion of
leading power.
• Economic. To maintain a current momentum of
growth.
After having reviewed key Indian national interests, even
bird’s eye view of the US national Security Strategy11 is
enough to reveal following:
PAKISTAN ARMY
US National Security Cardinal US National Security Cardinal
Emphasis on US undisputed global leadership India subsumed as junior partner within US strategy
Seizing/exploiting strategic opportunities Suggesting its strategic engagements as opportunity
provided by historic transitions; influencing their based & transactional; and current bonhomie with
trajectory and managing risks by evolving the India is an “evolved method of US leadership”
way US exercise it leadership
• Partners/international institutions; Partners like India are used to subsidise US security
instruments to deliver essential capacity to overheads and international institutions exploited
share burden of maintaining global security as leverage. (e.g UNSC membership for India)
• More sustainable military approach instead
of fighting costly large scale wars
Primacy of economic interests of US citizens US business interest would get priority over
“economic partners’” interest. A truth which is now
becoming ever more clear to India after shift in US
H1-B visa policy
• Leveraging a strong and regulated economy The term ‘Abuse’ also used in context of subsidies
to promote trade/investment while protecting and protectionism, much of which support the
international financial system from abuse Indian developing economy
• Shaping emerging global economic
environment, based on “rules” as against
“alternative less open models”
Unilateralism; when enduring US interest Exposing Indian national security and diplomacy to
demand it or key allies are threatened unwarranted risks, if it got too closely involved with
US, especially with Asia-Pacific
Economy as a measure of power and influence; Economic incentives for India like nuclear deal
and underwriting military strength and (within Energy security context), market access and
diplomatic influence. Leveraging strong economy access to technologies as a geo-political leverage
and US presence in global financial system to especially against China
advantage US security
India’s role as a regional provider of security India looks east to underwrite US interests in Asia-
and its expanded partnership (with an oblique Pacific; while US remain sole principal in Middle
reference of Asia Pacific). Indian mention with East
regard to Middle East is clearly absent
Constructive relations with China have been Relations with China fundamental to US
highlighted notwithstanding the acrimony
Juxtaposing both sets of interests is far too complex, to China. An out of the region showdown with
however following relevant inferences can be China as a possibility, that is not sinking in well
deduced:- with many sane Indians. US is not comfortable
• Bilateral Trade. India and US can hardly with this continued “strategic dithering”12 by
ignore the opportunities that both represent India. Conversely, US also wants to retain a two
for each. Economy is, therefore, the biggest stream relations with China, in which India
convergence between both, which is in many figures out within the confrontational stream.
ways independent of geo-strategy. • Relations with Pakistan. While US has
• Containment of China. Despite its much accommodated a lot of Indian concerns with
touted acrimony for China, India is still regards to her relation with Pakistan, India still
undecided regarding the extents of adversity remains somewhat skeptical. US, despite being
Green Book 2017 145
 PAKISTAN ARMY
US President Barack Obama and India’s Prime Minister
Narendra Modi talk as they have coffee and tea together in
the gardens of Hyderabad House in New Delhi on January
25, 2015
accommodative to India, continues to retain
a rather independent policy of Pakistan due
to a host of diplomatic, geo-political and geo
strategic compulsions. Nonetheless, the level
of this accommodation has grown significantly
in the recent years.
• Nature of Economic Relations. A sustainable
growth in India cannot be without a serious
long term economic cost for US. US and India
are often on a different page when it comes to
certain central issues of global economy e.g
tariffs, subsidies, free movement of human
resource, clean energy, and so on. In such an
environment, US would always want India to
be a partner on her own terms, rather than
vice versa. Ironically for US, India finds
a common ground with China in most of
these issues.
146 Green Book 2017
• Indian Role in International System. A sane
US policy ought to see India as a long term rival
within International Security architecture. She,
therefore, needs to carefully calibrate its geo
- political support to India. It has, therefore,
deployed a very suave strategy in this regard,
allowing other major powers like China to
be the natural balancer, without being in
forefront. Indian UNSC and NSG bids are two
cases in point.
• Trajectory of Indian Military Capability.
Corollary to above, if India were to potentially
achieve its desired military capabilities, it
would become a competitor in Indian Ocean
Region (which according to Mahan is of great
importance within global geo-strategy). Such
an eventuality, therefore, goes contrary to
interests. For this reason, US for now seems
mostly interested in big ticket defence sales,
without any meaningful technology transfers.
Max Agreeable Agenda. Based on the
aforementioned, following can be listed as the
maximum agreeable agenda between US and
India:-
• High bilateral trade volumes and market
access.
• High tech defence sales.
• Nuclear energy.
• “Counter balancing” China as against
“Containing” it.
• Afghan policy.
Projections
• By 2025, the Indo-US relationship would still
be significant, but US-Chinese geo - political
transactions would be pre-eminent, due to
unparalleled economic interdependence.
India would also continue to pursue benefits
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of favourable US ties, for various geo - political
pursuits including as a hedge against Chinese
hostilities. India would be important to US
to keep Asian power potential divided, keep
China in check and reap economic benefits.
Therefore, it would, essentially, be a triangular
relations of immense economic and geo
political complexity.
• India would continue to strive for a multi-polar
world in which she represents one of the poles.
However, within the global geo-politics, India
is likely to carry a lot more respect for Chinese
sensitivities in exchange for some diplomatic
and economic space. Any alternate is too risky
for India.
• India’s diplomatic sway in South East Asia
and Oceania would increase. However it
would more be in the economic domain.
Within the geo strategic context, it is non-
committal attitude due to its compulsion of
not confronting China. This would likely result
in a course correction in US-India policy, with
the relationship becoming transactional rather
than “truly strategic”.
• Within the scope of the aforementioned
transactional relations, India’s military will
still be eager to benefit from expanded defence
ties with Washington. These defence relations
would be more driven by defence economy
rather than geo-strategy.
• As a corollary, relations with Russia are likely
to have mended significantly, as her defence
relations with US might have plateaued short
of her desires. India, under the compulsion to
diversify its defence procurement, especially in
the niche domains (like high level Air Defence,
Air Craft carriers and Nuclear Subs), would
have to re-orientate itself towards Russia.
• Within the context of special capability like
Cyber, US and India are expected to take
independent paths, complementing each
other in governance issues of cyberspace
(against perceived Chinese non conformism).
The areas like information assurance, core
cyber defensive and offensive capabilities
and encryption etc. might not see much
cooperation, due to respective sensitivities.
• India, however, is expected to receive
significant investment (if not cooperation) from
US in her space programme in order to offload
cost prohibitive launch operations to make its
own programme more strategically focused.
This would carry indirect benefits for Indian
Green Book 2017 147
 PAKISTAN ARMY
satellite and geospatial programmes, as well as
its missile capabilities.
• Notwithstanding the US India nuclear
cooperation, India’s energy and resource
(particularly water) riddle is expected to remain
unsolved. This constraint could overtime
become overbearing, informing Indian foreign
and security policy, especially within its
neighbourhood domain. The desired energy
mix is likely to have significant bearing on its
relations with Pakistan (for water and gas) and
Middle East (for oil and gas).
Key Conclusions
• The current Indo-US strategic trajectory is
a function of complex geo politics. Certain
strands of this relation are sustainable, however
it is very hard to see the strategic interest of US
and India totally converging, in the long run.
• India is rather too big to be anybody’s ally.
Divergent world view, with US insisting
upon its global predominance and Indian
vying for “global and strategic influence” on
its own terms, could prove out to be major
limitations in long run.
• On its “Anti-China” terms, US India relations
are unsustainable. However economics and
geo-political counter balancing of China can be
a more enduring mutual interest.
• An active confrontation between India and
China is implausible, as India cannot get into
148 Green Book 2017
PAKISTAN ARMY
American business tycoon and
philanthropist Bill Gates announced an
emergency relief fund of $700,000 for
the flood victims in India
such a misadventure, without seriously hurting
itself.
• The US-India relationship would, therefore, be
anchored in economic partnership, whereas the
defence relationship will be more transactional
than strategic in mid to long term.
• Indian and US interdependence with China
would be an important safety valve within
global geo strategy. However, both would try
to leverage each other potentialities to apply
brakes to the Chinese progress and instil
“favourability” in Chinese behaviour.
NOTES
1. Masani Minoo, “The Indian Economic Liberalisation Story”. Project for
2.
Economic Education: Mumbai, May, 2012.
“IMF World Economic Outlook”, last modified on October, 2016, http://
statisticstimes.com/economy /countries-by-projected-gdp.php.
3. US National Security Strategy – 2015.
4. Shafiq Muhammad, “Emerging Trends in Geo-Politics of Asia Pacific Region”,
5.
IPRI Journal XIV, no.1 (Winter 2014): 81-101.
“Population of Overseas Indians”, last modified on December, 2016, http://
www.mea.gov.in/overseas-indianaffairs.htm.
6. Naqvi Munawwar, “Growth and Diversification of Mass Media in India:
Whose Interests, Whose Ideas”, Paper presented at international conference
on Diversity and Plurality in Media-Reflections of Society, Bhopal, India,
December 2011.
7. President Obama’s address in New Delhi on 26 January 2015.
8. Mohan Raja, “International Dimension of National (In) Security Concept,
Challenges & Way Forward”. Paper presented at 9th Berlin conference on Asia
9.
Security (BCAS), Berlin, June 14-16, 2015.
“Major Powers’ Interests in Indian Ocean: Challenges and Options for
Pakistan”. International conference organised by Islamabad Policy Research
Institute (IPRI) at Islamabad, November 18-19, 2014.
10. Kumar Radha and Achal Mulhotra, “Back to Reality: Indian National Interests
11.
& Multilateralism”, The Stanley Foundation, February, 2014.
US National Security Strategy – 2015.
12. Ratnayake K, “India-US Mil Cooperation Robust & Deepening”, wsws.org,
http://www.wsws.org/en/ articles/2016/04/14/Usin-A14.Html, April, 2016.
13. “Energy India Outlook”, World Energy Outlook Special Report: International
Energy Agency, February, 2015.
Green Book 2017 149
 PAKISTAN ARMY
Mind
Control
H
Inaudible effective threat to
National Security uman body is a combination of
composite communication system
which receives accidental and
non-accidental signals, internally
and externally. It possesses
countless data processing systems
including chemical-mechanical signal processing
by brain, heart and peripheral nervous system.
Altering these data processing systems of body
is possible due to lack of any firewall in human
mind. Disinformation and deception of this data
processing system of the body, especially brain
Lieutenant Colonel Khaqan Sarwar
being the controller, could be deceived or even shut
The Officer is serving in Pakistan Army down like any other data processor, if signals of
confusion, misinformation or external command
Humeira Khaqan Chaudhary is a professional engineer, serving as Divisional are interfered with the normal signals. US news and
Engineer, National Telecommunication Cooperation
world wide reports disclosed the existence of silent
weapons including acoustics, microwave, lasers
etc. and also uncovered the truth behind scientific
Abstract: The concept of “Mind Control” is as old as the human history, which has, so far, attained research on securing the electromagnetic and sonic
the ultimate technological advancements. Brain, which is responsible for the overall performance and spectrum.1 Experimentations and trials regarding
integrity of all body parts, may be unable to do so, if mind is controlled and brain is on the mercy of some these wonder weapons which describe the danger
external agent. The situation could lead to great devastation, if the process of “Mind Control” is part of to humanity due to psychotronic war reveal the US
any conspiracy, as the victims are unable to understand subliminal messages. It is believed that the same and Russian research.2
lethal weapon is used behind the suicidal terrorism in Pakistan. This lethal weapon would be the most Mass communication through electronic
fatal in future psychological warfare. media and usage of internet for reinforcement
The purpose of this paper is to uncover the stimuli by identifying the agents, their work style and of psychotronic war is included in the agendas
mastermind behind this magical control to give thoughts to the readers. of Pentagon. Frequent messages from media,
Keywords: Mind Control, MK-ULTRA, suicide bombers. religion, education and the inherited values which
150 Green Book 2017
PAKISTAN ARMY
we absorb without questions, lead to the prison of
mind, dictated by other authorities and turn the
mind into rigid enemy rather than a flexible friend3.
Russian research makes known the potential danger
of computer operated interface and considers the
man as an open system rather than a closed one who
exchanges information (electromagnetic, acoustics,
gravitational etc.) with environment through
two way traffic. Any change could lead to change
in physical, psycho or psychological conditions
of data processing capabilities and may lead to
destabilisation of the entire system. These wonder
weapons are in development process around the
globe. Examples include Psychotropic Generator,
Autonomous Generator, Nervous System Generator,
Ultrasound Emanation, Noiseless Cassettes, the 25th
Frame Effect and countless others.4
Psycho-electronic frequency weapons
may have lethal effects upon societies and their
remotely accessed controlled minds. These silent
weapons are developed by experimenting unaware
people. Real humans were used as laboratory mice
and were victims of secret experiments without
subject’s consent5. Authorities at United States of
America including President Bill Clinton admitted
such experiments and rendered apology from the
world for using human victims in such experiments
of mind control and same is on record.
Green Book 2017 151
 PAKISTAN ARMY
In current decade, security of Pakistan
has been severely affected due to suicide bombing
attacks. The mind control, which is a weapon
of psychological warfare is the source behind
this phenomenon, causing wide spread evil and
affecting not only Pakistan but also many other
countries.
This article narrates the shocking realities
of experimentations for hidden objectives to violate
humanity.
This paper aims at investigating the
advancements in Mind Control Techniques
through exploratory research and finding out the
relevant factors responsible for negative trends and
radicalisation of some factions of the society in
Pakistan. The paper would also reveal the realities
behind terrorism and suicide explosions, which are
creating havoc in the country.
Origin of Mind Control
At the end of Second World War, top level scientists
from Italy and Nazi Germans were brought to America
under secret Project “Paperclip”, accompanied
by Hitler’s Chief of Intelligence against Russia
“Reinhard Gehlen”, who played an influential
role in creation of American National Security
Council.6 In response to Soviet Brainwashing
Programme “Truth Drug”,7 Project “Chatter” was
initiated under umbrella of joint efforts of CIA and
National Security Council. The said Project ended
in 1953.8 The Project “Blue Bird” was initiated
under the supervision of CIA’s Director Allen Dullas
in 1950 with the objective of strong behavioural
modification in their spies to cease any possibility
of information leakage in case of their capture. The
Project ended in 1956.9 Before the demise of Project
“Blue Bird”, Project “MK-ULTRA” took birth on April
152 Green Book 2017
13, 1953. “MK-ULTRA” comes from German word
“Mind Kontrolle”.10 The Mind Control Programme’s
objective was to condition the subjects to cease
any possibility of information leakage in case their
spies were detained, develop investigation methods
for detainees to extract intelligence based data/
information and develop memory strengthening
ways and means. Several tools were used and
modified in the experimentation including
radiation, psychology, graphology, anthropology,
material, Lysergic acid diethylamide (abbreviated
as LSD or LSD-25), Psychiatry, paramilitary devices,
electric shocks etc.11 Vast experimentation was
performed trying all possible ways without any care
for legal or moral considerations.
“MK-ULTRA” was supported by 149 baby
projects; some of these were formally launched but
not identified officially due to secretive nature of
projects.12 “MONARCH” was one of these projects
achieving the objectives of “Sleeper Assassins-
PAKISTAN ARMY
Manchurian Candidates”, who could be triggered
by a “Programmed” key word in post hypnotic
state achieved through electroshocks and repeated
Trauma.13
The initiator of these programmes
cannot be precisely identified; however, Dr
Gruenbaum, Dr Green and Dr Josef Mengele,
genetic researchers at Auschwitz Centre,
were among the brutal experimenters.
The barbarianism of the experiments is
unprecedented.14 In an experiment, Dr Mengele
cruelly killed a child in front of other child after
vicious torture; the survivor child was caged naked
with monkeys who were trained for sexual abuse.
The humanity was reduced to animal level and the
victims were not allowed to express any excessive
emotions.15
Through the application of electroshocks,
the subjects were dissociated. The chosen victims
were from minor infants to about six years of age,
however, at times even the shocks were given in
mother’s womb. Minds of these minors used to
split off as the result of extreme trauma, electric
shocks, rape and other methods which finally lead
to “Dissociative Identity Disorder”, which is an
extremely rare mental disorder. In the preceding
stage, subjects were fed command messages by
using hi-tech headsets, noiseless sound waves,
combination of harmonics etc. affecting the
Ribonucleic acid (RNA) of the neuron pathway
to the subconscious brain. Subliminal messages,
optical devices and split screen visuals were also
used in combination with modern methods for
memory dissociation.16
Due to hidden intentions, the Project “MK-
ULTRA” was split into various subprojects and
segmented into specialised fields of research at
Green Book 2017 153
 PAKISTAN ARMY
different venues, funded by American Government.
Dr D. Ewen Cameron who conducted experiments
at McGill University, Allen Memorial Institute
and St Mary’s Hospital had conceived “Psychic
Driving” through sexually abused victims, mostly
from Catholic Orphanage who were strapped with
electric helmet after being kept under drug induced
coma for several weeks.17 The subjects were then fed
by repeated messages. The Project “MK-ULTRA” was
exposed by Canadian survivor through lawsuits in
1970.18
Satellite Weapons and Mind Control
Satellite Mind Control and Bio Electric weapons
influencing human thoughts and behaviours
against their will and knowledge are termed as Mind
Control. Psychotronic Torture is remotely controlled
technological torture that gradually captures and
ultimately poisons the human thoughts as the data
processors of humans are manipulated. In the first
phase, victim is made isolated and then victimised
through number of experiments. Many of them
are implanted with microchips, some experience
extreme pains. Directed energy weapons are used
for the purpose. These directed energy weapons
include extremely low frequency electromagnetic
weapons, acoustics, harmonics, ultrasound,
microwave, audiograms, microwave pulse and
radio frequency weapons. Electromagnetic beam
can be used to induce the muscular agitation or
physical lethargy. Electronic harassment leads to
constant distressed situation as mind undergoes
constant trauma.19 Technologies are emerging to
remotely control the minds and manipulation
of brains. 20 Manipulation through subliminal
messages is known to many and is banned
in many countries. Light flashing in multiple
frequencies, combination of ultrasonic waves,
use of electromagnetic energies etc, are known
techniques.
Shocking Realities
The existence of satellite spies is reality now. Below
listed are some of these satellites which United
States has achieved:-
• Echelon Satellites. It is a secret global
spying network designed for surveillance of
telecommunication worldwide. It is used for
conversation/email interception and theft of
intellectual property. The base of the system is
directly linked with National Security Agency
(NSA) of USA with the series of surveillance
posts all around the world including Britain.
The said system contains high tech powerful
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PAKISTAN ARMY
computers specially designed for voice
recognition. The system is capable of listening
all sort of international calls, emails, faxes and
radio transmissions. Both chief protagonists
i.e. United States and Britain are the main
users; however both deny its existence.21 In
November 1999, Mr Bill Bliss, the Inspector
General of Australian Intelligence and Security
Agency had confirmed that Australian Defence
Signal Directorate (DSD) also contribute to the
system.22
• Interactive Transtector Device. It is designed
to target political figures for intercepting their
thoughts. “Pat US #489381516-1-90 L. Rowan”.23
• Audio-Visual Satellites. It is used for 24/7
surveillance worldwide even inside the
roof. This could be used for harassment
of targets.24 Devices for Audio surveillance
include radiating/non-radiating devices such
as miniature radio, ultrasonic transmitters,
concealed microphones, laser facilitated
devices etc.25
• Methods of Altering Consciousness. It is
designed to influence the emotions and mood
of the target by exhibiting specific rhythms. • Neurophones. In
Satellite based “Pat US #5123899, 23/6/92 J. 1968, Dr Patrick
Gall + Pat US #5289438, 22/2/94 ”. US Patent Flanagan developed
# 5123844. June 23rd, 1992. US patent 5289,438, first Neurophone. “US
February 22nd, 1994. The brain is stimulated Patent #3393279 16/7/68 P.
with different frequencies which cause to alter Flanagan + Pat US #3647970
subject’s consciousness. The most effective 7/3/72 P. Flanagan, July 16th, 1968.
method is Electromagnetic Field (EMF) US Patent # 3,647,970. March 7th,
interference to induce disruptive motions like 1972”.29 It is an application of lasers,
fear, sleep, anger etc.26 microwave and electromagnetic
• Brain Wave Analysers. It is used to read energies on target so that victim hears
target’s mind. It is claimed that this technology voices from inside.29-30
is designed for monitoring terrorist activities. • Psycho-Acoustic Projector. US Patent
“Pat US #6011991, 1/4/00”25. The pioneer of # 3,566347, (23/2/71) Andrew Flender has
this technology is Lawrence Pinneo, who was developed this device in 1971. This device
an electronic engineer and neurophysiologist, or weapon is capable of aural psychological
working as military contractor. He designed disturbance and deafening the target.31
a computer in 1974.27 The brain waves form • Superimposing Method and Apparatus. This
magnetic field, which can be monitored was developed by Josef Wilson in July 1992. US
through a satellite. The results are fed to Patent #5,134,484. These techniques can be
computers. The frequency of human thoughts used to change the behaviours of the victim.32
is 5000bits/sec, whereas these computers • Silent Subliminal Messages. Dr Oliver M
have speed of 300 trillion bits/sec. Thus one Lowery is the inventor of Silent Subliminal
such computer can process more information Messages. US Patent # 5159703. October 27th,
than entire world population. These kinds 1992. The carriers with extreme frequencies
of setups exist in Maryland USA, Israel etc. are modulated with desired material such as
which are interfaced with satellites and various music, video etc. The propagation of these
forms of bio-elementary devices for collection/ signals directly induce human brain without
monitoring/ analysis of human thoughts.28 knowledge. Rene Lundy and David Taler
invented a system called “Auditory Subliminal
Green Book 2017 155
 PAKISTAN ARMY
Message System” in 1983 to modulate messages
in background music. US patent # 439500.
July 26th, 1983. Robert Sweet had developed
“Subliminal Message Generator” to modulate
subliminal message in video medium. US
Patent # 5,270,800 December 14th, 1993. Joseph
Wilson had developed superimposing methods
and system for said techniques. US Patent
# 5,134,484, July 28th, 1992. The mentioned
techniques are often used by entertainment
industry, though banned, for increased sale.33
• Microwave Weapons. These weapons are
used for transmission of Extremely Low
Frequencies (ELF) which mimic human
thought waves. The people in the vicinity of
these microwave transmitters are turned to
be submissive Zombies. The said techniques
can be used to alter the behaviour of the
victim at the flick of a switch.34
• Synthetic Telepathy. Pentagon has achieved
the insertion of voice inside the head of targeted
human which could drive him crazy; this is
done through the application of low frequency
electromagnetic power in auditory sensation.
The concept is termed as Synthetic Telepathy.35
Mind Control Police under the umbrella of secret
intelligence agencies is a reality. The first step
towards protection against this phenomenon
is awareness and informing as many people as
possible to stop this human abuse. The agendas
behind this experimentation are to keep masses
in fear and ignorance. It is thus easy to access
and control the mind.36 The power behind these
experiments lack humanistic qualities, intensity
of pain they create in other innocent creature
and increased frequency of victims multiplies
their urge of more power. “No Fear” feeling and
156 Green Book 2017
self-empowerment, which can be achieved by
countless methods, are the counter weapons. One
must choose the best suitable technique to restrict
and stop the remote access to mind and energies.37
Those who believe in the existence of
these frequency weapons, must document their
experiences and evidences to make this human
abuse exposed.38 David Ickes’ Brilliant Book
uncovers the secret military documents regarding
“Silent Weapons” and also the secret realities behind
the authoritarian elite world forces. The techniques
of brainwashing, keeping the public undisciplined,
ignorant, disorganised and confused could provide
success in securing the silent weapons. David Icke
made known the potential danger of futuristic
“Micro Chipped Population” in his book “And The
Truth Shall Set You Free”.39 According to him,
the expected future generation will be controlled
centrally through central elite global authorities.
This micro chipped population, being the obedient
prisoners, could be used for any purpose, even for
the explosions.
Findings
During the research on Project “MK-ULTRA” and
relevant projects, certain aspects of Mind Control
are revealled that are believed to be responsible
for the prevailing destructive situation of Pakistan.
There are certain elements which used to control
minds of masses to achieve results or reactions of
the audience which goes in the favour of certain
institutions, political parties or even government.
Different mediums around us try different tactics
to control our minds and actions. They focus on
how to exploit the situation and manipulate the
individuals or society to gain their trust and then
control their thinking and beliefs.
Alex Ansary explored that people relate
the Mind Control and “MK-ULTRA” with “Classic
Conspiracy Theory”, exposing the hidden objectives
of CIA and Pentagon other than the initial objectives
of developing methods of controlling subjects.40
One of the most common examples of
Mind Control in our so-called free and civilised
society is the advent and usage of electronic
media. This makes perfect sense when we see how
slanted and warped the news is today. Examining
the conflicts of interest is merely glancing at the
issue. Although to understand the multiple ways
that lies become truth, we need to examine the
techniques of brain washing that the networks are
employing.41
Mass Media’s Role in Mind Control
Media controls the masses in such a devious way
that majority among them is unable to believe the
existence of any conspiracies or special hidden
agenda behind. In fact, today’s Liberal Media,
especially in Pakistan, has taken over the control
of the minds of the masses and population.
Unconsciously world see not from their own eyes
rather they think, believe and accept what media
drills in their minds. Media today is being used
as the brainwashing agent and most efficient tool
that is utilised on behalf of some hostile force for
their vested interests. Every component of media
i.e. TV/ radio news, print media, advertisement,
entertainment and internet is playing its effective
role in controlling the minds of the viewers. We
must try to explore the agendas and objectives
behind these secret propagandas. Awareness and
belief in existence of hidden conspiracies behind is
the first and the foremost step for the purpose.
Social Networking Sites: A Tool for Mind Control
In present world, social networking sites are
providing ways into our private lives and are also
keeping record of our current activities like our
location, whom we interact with, what is the nature
of our interaction and even our family history.
These social sites tend to be more dangerous than
the television as they have the ability to watch us.
Whatever we type in Google and Yahoo search
engines, it is stored in the databases for years and
after combining that information with the databases
of sites, like Facebook and MySpace, the combined
information can tell everything about user and the
people he knows. All the conversations are also
being watched and monitored. User interests and
all relevant information are stored in the database.
These databases have the power to analyse that
PAKISTAN ARMY
how many of us are vulnerable and what sort of
incidences affect us.
Terrorist Activities
Henry Makow in his article “War on Terror is Elite
Mind Control” says, “If terror can be induced on a
widespread basis into a society, Lewin has stated,
then society reverts to a tabula rasa, a blank slate,
a situation where control can easily be instituted
from an external point”. He explores that through
insertion of controlled chaos, minds of the populace
can be made willingly submissive slave accepting
the greater control, pushing the masses to “Early
Childhood Stage”, a term known as “Fluidity”.42
What we all need to know is the real
source that is behind the suicide bombers and
what is the cause for this wide spread evil that
is affecting not only Pakistan but the whole
world?
Peter Chamberlin of USA has written an
article on “Who is responsible for suicide-bomber
academias” in which he says that recently a lot of
suicide bombers were captured from Swat, giving
substantial evidence related to Mind Control
Techniques that are used to control the minds of
innocent young boys and how they are drugged and
forced to perform terrorist activities.43
The following passage has been taken from
the article by Peter Chamberlin to look into what
actually has been happening in the area of Swat.
Pakistani media interviewed a terrorist
detainee in Bajur camp, the teenager boy told,
“When I refused, they tied me down with a rope and
started beating me. Eventually I said I was ready to
carry out an attack just to make them stop. They
came and forced me to eat a tablet. After taking the
pill I couldn’t understand what was right or wrong.
Whatever they said to me I would answer yes to
everything and seemed justified to me. The pills
made me forgetful and I stopped caring about my
brothers, sisters or parents. The only thing before
me was paradise and I agreed to carry out an attack
for the sake of Islam”.44
The statements by the suicide bombers
who were captured reveal that how the captured
ones were the chosen ones and how they were
slowly prepared for performing the terrorist
activities. These boys were deceived by their
captivators about their religion and made to believe
that Islam calls for such extreme actions and they
will be greeted in Heaven with joy ; all leading to a
ultimate reward.
The terrorist leaders must have some
mechanism through which they have the ability
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 PAKISTAN ARMY
to control the minds of these killers rather strong
techniques of Mind Control and alteration of
one’s fundamental beliefs, they possess, creating
“Zombie Killers” at will on the name of “Jihad”.45
Simple persuasion, otherwise, cannot create the
mass murderers out of innocent children provoking
horrible destructive thoughts. There must be some
force behind providing modern techniques and
technologies to produce “Psychopathic” killers.
Certain drugs were used in the past to
control the conditions of the mental status of
an individual like sodium amytal, commonly
known as amo-barbital. These “Truth Drugs”
are similar to one used during macro-analysis
of detained culprits by police departments in
many countries. These “Truth Drugs” have the
lethal effects in creating hypnotic terrorists.46
From the above content it can easily
be concluded that how innocent teenagers and
individuals are used through Mind Control
to achieve the goals that are set by the mind
controllers. Mind Control Techniques are involved
in creating psychopathic killers and related terrorist
activities. All this revelation leaves one in confusion
about this WAR ON TERROR that is taking place in
Afghanistan and Pakistan.
Mind Control by Exploiting Religious Beliefs
Mind of an individual or a group can also be
controlled by inducing religious beliefs in the
mind. Muslims are very vulnerable in this regard.
Individual going through physical or emotional
158 Green Book 2017
crisis greatly rely on religious/ mystical scholars
for support. Often these religious scholars use
hypnosis or other brainwashing techniques to
control their mind and get advantage of their
situation or exploit them in other ways. There are a
number of ways in which an individual’s religious
belief is manipulated to control his actions, mind
and behaviour. Recently, a book named, “Confession
of a British Spy” has surfaced,47 in which the author
has revealled that how a British spy was involved in
introducing a religious sect to control the thinking
of some of the Islamic individuals and hence
exploiting the religious differences.
It is a common practice, especially in
Pakistan, that different religious sects primarily
focus on the differences that they have with other
sects rather than focusing on the common beliefs
they have. Pakistani nation is going towards the
extremes of religion which is giving rise to violence,
ethnicity and religious differences. As our nation
is already going through many traumas, hence, we
are more prone to be victimised by the Mind Control
Techniques, happening right now in Pakistan.
Recommendations
• Conscious awareness could restrict access
of mind whereas ignorance is the biggest
weakness against Mind Control Technologies.
We must try to create such awareness about
existence of hidden conspiracies. It is only
through awareness that external access of
body’s data processing system may be denied.
ISPR may play an effective role by recruiting
specialised and trained persons and send them
to troubled areas of FATA, Swat and Balochistan
to influence the local masses.
• Strong policies are to be made at Government
level for restricting electronic media against
propagation of confusing messages. Control of
electronic media is very essential in national
interest and credibility of media anchors must
also be firmly monitored. This is possible
only through strict enforcement of relevant
regulations in true spirit.
• Social networking sites serve as tool for mind
control, especially of youngsters. There is a
need for policy making at Government level
to check and monitor these sites prudently
through Pakistan Telecom Authority and Law
Enforcement Agencies. Further, vigilance must
be propagated at school/college level through
awareness programmes.
• Exploitation of religious beliefs play an
important role in Mind Control. Muslims,
especially, are very vulnerable. Existence
of different sects further adds to violence.
Religious scholars must focus on common
beliefs rather than focusing on differences. This
should be monitored as part of national policy.
Further, syllabus of Islamic education must be
redesigned by a board comprising of qualified
and credible scholars under Government’s
umbrella and peaceful teachings of Islam must
be highlighted and propagated.
• The Mind Control Technology involves
sophisticated scientific research.
Establishment of state-of-the-art Research
institute at national level is essentially
needed to explore the scientific base of
these wonder weapons and also to explore
development of counter weapons.
Conclusion
The Evil desire of ruling the mind had started since
inception. The tremendous maturity is seen in the
Mind Control from achieving satanic mysterious
powers to scientific technologies. This human
abuse must be stopped before the freedom of mind
becomes non existant. The first anti-weapon is
the “Belief” and “Knowledge” about existence
of these wonder tools. “No fear” feeling can
help greatly in denying the hacking of body
processor by some external force. These hidden
“Satanic Demons” must be exposed through
awareness of masses.
PAKISTAN ARMY
NOTES
1. Silent Subliminal Presentation System available on http://www.
bibliotecapleyades.net/ ciencia/ciencia_nonlethalweapons03.htm, US Patent
#5,159,703, dated October 27, 1992.
2. The Weird Russian Mind-Control Research Behind a DHS Contract by
Sharon Weinberger available on http://www.wired.com/politics/security/
3.
news/2007/09/ mind_reading?currentPage=all.
Protection from Neuro Electromagnetic Frequency Mind Control Weapons by
George Ferquhar.
4. The Mind Has No Firewall by Timothy L. Thomas From Parameters, Spring
1998, page. 84-92.
5.
6.
Ibid.
Secret Agenda: The United States Government, Nazi Scientists, and Project
Paperclip, 1945 to 1990 by Linda Hunt.
7. The Search for the Manchurian Candidate by John Marks available on http://
www.druglibrary.org/schaffer/lsd/marks8.htm.
8. In Search of Black Assassins available on http://mindcontrolblackassassins.
com/category/project-chatter/.
9. CIA Behavior Modification: Project Bluebird available on http://www.
10.
examiner.com/article/cia-behaviour-modification-project-bluebird.
AMERIKA’S FASCIST CHARACTER:MK-ULTRA: The CIA’s Mind Control
11.
Programme by Stephen Lendman Tuesday, 16 February 2010.
CIA Experiments with “Mind Control on Children” by Jon Rappoport,
Perceptions Magazine, September/October 1995.
12.
13.
Ibid.
Project Monarch: Nazi Mind Control, The Evolution of Project Mk Ultra by Ron
14.
Patton.
Ibid.
15. The Egyptian Masonic Satanic Connection by David L. Carrico, 1992.
16. CIA Experiments with “Mind Control on Children” by Jon Rappoport,
Perceptions Magazine, September/October 1995.
17.
18.
Operation Mind Control by Walter H. Bowart, Flatland Editions, 1994.
Ibid.
19. Satellite Mind Control – Bioelectric Weapon by Benjamin Simon Corbion
Ciney Leignon on January 24, 2012 available on http://gangstalkingbelgium.
wordpress. com/2012/01/24/satellite-mind-control-bioelectric-weapon/.
20. Subliminal Messages: How America Uses Mind Control by Derek Rodriguez
available on http://www.trutv.com/conspiracy/in-the-shadows/subliminal_
messaging/btk-killer-capture.html.
21. Echelon Spy Setwork Revealed by Andrew Bomford of BBC Radio available on
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/503224.stm.
22.
23.
Ibid
The Mother of All Black Ops by James F. Marino available on http://9-
11themotherofallblackoperations.blogspot.com/2012/03/audio-visual-
24.
satellites-combined-with.html.
Satellite Spies the Shocking Truth available on http://groups.yahoo.com/neo/
25.
groups/ MCVictimsEU/conversations/topics/2868.
Ibid.Ibid.
26. http://www.surveillanceissues.com/categories-of-surveillanceharassment-
27.
technologies/Ibid.
Ibid.
28.
29.
Ibid.
Ibid.
30. project Freedom, “Military use of Mind Control weapon by by Judy Wall,
Nexus Magazine, 1998. Available on http://www.lambros.name/profreedom/
mumcw_jw.html
31.
32.
Ibid
Ibid
33. http://www.surveillanceissues.com/categories-of-surveillanceharassment-
34.
technologies/
“Microwave Mind Control, UK Intelligence Forces and Microwave Mind
Control” by Tim Riffat, available on https://www.bibliotecapleyades.net/
sociopolitica/esp_sociopol_mindcon10.htm
35. Synthetic Telepathy - The Early Mind Wars by Richard Alan Miller, c2001,
presented at the Consciousness Technologies Conference, July 19-21, 2001, on
Saturday, July 20th, 2001.
36. Brain-Machine Interface by Robert Asher, Sandia National Laboratories June
2002,Arlington, Virginia.
37. Protection from Neuro Electromagnetic Frequency Mind Control Weapons by
38.
George Ferquhar.
Ibid.
39. Silent Weapons for a Quite War and Microchip Population (Secret Military
documents exposed), extract from David Ickec Brilliant Book, “Truth Shall
Set You Free”.
40. Mass Mind Control Through Network Television: Are Yout Thoughts Your
Own? by Alex Ansary available on http://rense.com/general69/mass.htm.
41.
42.
Ibid.
War on Terror is Elite Mind Control “Controlled Chaos” by Henry Makow PhD
http://www.rense.com/general70/copntr.htm.
43. Who is Responsible for Suicide Bomber Academies by Peter Chamberlin
available on http://therearenosunglasses.wordpress.com/2010/11/08/who-is-
44.
responsible-for-suicide-bomber-academies/.
Ibid.
45. MindNet Journal - Vol. 1, No. 96 available on http://www.whale.to/b/
46.
constantine6.html.
Mind Control by John D. Rockefeller http://www.theforbiddenknowledge.
47.
com/hardtruth/ mind_control_index.htm.
Confessions of A British Spy and British Enmity Against Islam by Waqf Ikhlas
(Publications No: 14).
Green Book 2017 159
 PAKISTAN ARMY PAKISTAN ARMY

China to markets in Asia, Europe and beyond. Since

construction of Gwadar Port in 2005/2006, an array
of security challenges emerged and continue to
pose threat to China Pakistan Economic Corridor.
Cognisant of the security challenges faced
by the China Pakistan Economic Corridor project,
Pakistan has taken special measures to address
the apprehensions of Chinese Government about
the overall security situation of Pakistan and
enabling environment for large scale economic
and development activities. Chinese assertions of
security guarantees was taken seriously by civilian
and military leadership in Pakistan. Comprehensive
measures to ensure security of the China Pakistan
Economic Corridor and the Chinese working on
various projects are being taken; raising of a
special security force on war footing and its timely
deployment instilled confidence, allowing start of
most of the Early Harvest Projects.
The challenges posed to the China Pakistan
Economic Corridor are peculiar and palpable.
Not only do internal mischief mongers have the
potential to throw a spanner in the progress of
the China Pakistan Economic Corridor, but the
external threats are also quite flagrant. Pakistan
has fair idea of the intentions and modus operandi
of both the elements. In fact, military operations

Securing the CPEC are already in full swing to eliminate internal rogue
elements like Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan and its
affiliates. As a result, the world has seen a visible
improvement in the security situation in Pakistan.
Pakistan Living upto the Task Besides, certain foreign quarters might view China
Pakistan Economic Corridor as a catalyst to greater
proximity between Pakistan and China, thereby
fearing a decrease in their influence on Pakistan.
“With Faith, Discipline and Selfless Devotion to duty, there is nothing worthwhile Some even view the development of Gwadar Port
that you cannot achieve” as a challenge to their monopoly over port trade

A
Major General Abid Rafique, HI (M)
Quaid-i-Azam Muhammad Ali Jinnah The General Officer is serving in Pakistan Army
Abstract: Significance of China-Pakistan Economic Corridor for both China and Pakistan in particular great leap forward in Sino-Pak
and whole region in general cannot be over emphasized. CPEC is the flagship project of China’s new vision relations occurred when the two
‘One Belt One Road’ initiative and part of its southern benefits out of this mega project. Due to the evolving countries agreed in 2013 to give a
regional and international environment, CPEC is surrounded by serious and multidimensional security practical shape to connect Western
challenges from hostile intelligence agencies, competitors and host of stakeholders. CPEC is a Geo-economic China (Chinese city of Kashgar)
framework which is being termed as a Game Changer and Fate Changer for Pakistan. However, the success with the Pakistani port of Gwadar
of CPEC is likely to benefit the entire region. To ensure physical security of Chinese/foreigners employed through a network of roads and railways. China
on CPEC, a dedicated force i.e. Special Security Division (SSD) has been raised and operationalised by Pakistan Economic Corridor has not only offered
Pakistan Army. SSD has achieved significant milestones in a very short span of time since its raising. Phase great opportunities for the economic prosperity of
1 of CPEC is already under implementation due to improve/secure enabling environment. Correct focus China and Pakistan but will also give a tremendous
and consistent efforts will be required to fully benefit from this opportunity. boost to their strategic significance. For Pakistan,
Keywords: CPEC, Environment, Enabling Environment, Threat, Challenges, Functional Zones, Security it is considered not only a game changer but a fate
Audit, Pilot Project, Central Security Nerve Centre (CSNC), Joint Working Group (JWG), One Belt One Road changer. The Chinese term it as a flagship project
(OBOR), Integrated Security Mechanism (ISM), Special Security Division (SSD) of the ‘One Belt, One Road’, which will connect
in the region. Fortunately, most of the Pakistanis
are on one page with regards to the China Pakistan
Economic Corridor and have frequently expressed
their strong desire to see this project flourishing.
Aim
This study overviews the strategic environment,
identifies the security concerns and challenges to
China Pakistan Economic Corridor with a view to
recommending way forward for ensuring failsafe
security to the mega national project.
The Environment
In a fast changing world there is a shift from
unipolarity to multipolarity. United State limitations
and other challengers’ assertions in the global
power game are evident while global contestation

160 Green Book 2017 Green Book 2017 161

 PAKISTAN ARMY PAKISTAN ARMY

for resources continues. The emerging global order
is evident but the transformation remains painful
and uncertain.
Global Environment
• Changing world order is impacting new
imperatives in the changing times. A clear tilt
in the balance of power can be seen due to rise
of China as a new economic power affecting
whole of the Asian region.
• The larger geopolitical perspective of China
Pakistan Economic Corridor is characterised
by Western concerns about the sudden rise
of China as a geo-economic giant with the
capacity to challenge the existing, United
States - led and West-dominated, global order.
This context implies that while both China and
Pakistan see ‘One Belt, One Road’, and China
Pakistan Economic Corridor as geo-economic
imperatives, United States will eventually view
them as Chinese geopolitical countermoves to
hedge against and eventually circumvent its
Pivot to Asia.
• While China views “Pivot to Asia Strategy”
as United States rebalancing to contain
China. United States of America and India
view China Pakistan Economic Corridor as
Chinese countermoves and an extension of
her ‘String of Pearls Strategy’.
• Competition for control of global commons/
Sea Lines of Communications in Asia Pacific
has the potentials to further raise tensions
between China and United States.
• Standoff of Eurasian Union under Russian
leadership with the West has started looking
East and has deepened its engagement with
Central Asian Republics, Afghanistan, Pakistan
and China. This augurs well for economic
integration of the region.
• Extremism and trans-national terrorism being
a global phenomenon is found in almost every
region and country across the globe. Islamic
State of Iraq and Syria and rise of new right in
the West have the potential to further disturb
global peace and stability.
Regional Environment
• Greater economic interdependence and quest
for diversified economic benefits are reshaping
alliances at regional level; which augur well for
regional stability and economic prosperity.
• South Asian Region is in the state of flux due to
stakes/interests of global and regional powers,
who are trying to establish their hegemony in
this resource rich region.
• India is asserting to become a regional hegemon
and attain the status of maritime power in the
Indian Ocean Region, thereby challenging
neighbours with apparent tacit nod of the west.
• Instability in Afghanistan and India’s use of its
soil against Pakistan in the form of sponsored
proxies to create unrest in Balochistan
and Gilgit-Baltistan as well as New Delhi’s
objections over the China Pakistan Economic
Corridor route passing through Gilgit-Baltistan
are creating negative effects on regional peace
and harmony.
• Inside China, Xinjiang has been classified as the
soft belly of China due to under development
and ethnic tensions primarily concerning the
Muslim Uyghur population. For the Chinese,
the East Turkmenistan Islamic Movement is
manifestation of the three evils of terrorism,
extremism and separatism.
• Recent developments including state terrorism
in Indian Occupied Kashmir and continuous
assertions in attempts to isolate Pakistan have
aggravated tensions between both nuclear
neighbours.
• Joint agreement between Iran-India-
Afghanistan and threats voiced by Indo-Afghan
leadership are Indian Exterior manoeuvres to
isolate Pakistan.
• Iran and China bilateral trade agreement and
prospects of linking Iran-Pakistan Gas Pipeline
with Kashgar is a positive development.
Domestic Environment
• Pakistan’s relevance is signified by its geo-
strategic location, potential to rise, ideology
and its resilient population of 200 million.
• National consensus on special relationship
with China augurs well.
• After the successful execution of Operation
Rah-e-Nijaat, Rah-e-Raast and Zarb-e-Azab and
now with ongoing operation Radd-ul-Fasaad,
security situation in the country is improving
at a fast pace.
• Raising of Special Security Division for
security of Chinese has provided assurance
to the Chinese government and ensured
successful initiation of China Pakistan
• Two Axes. Lahore-Islamabad-Peshawar and
Karachi-Gwadar development axes.
• Five Functional Zones
• Southern Xinjiang Zone. Kashgar -Atushi-
Tumshuq-Khunjerab. Industry/logistics/
economic development.
• Northern Pakistan Zone. Khunjerab-
Islamabad. Border logistic channel,
resource exploration.
• Central Pakistan Zone. Karachi-Sukkur-
Multan-Lahore-Islamabad. Industrial and
economic development.
• Western Pakistan Zone. Gwadar-Quetta-
Dera Ismail Khan. Logistic channel,
mineral exploration.
• Southern Pakistan Zone. Gwadar-
Karachi. Energy, logistic trade and business
development.
• Statistics of China Pakistan Economic
Corridor. China Pakistan Economic Corridor
project is equivalent to roughly 20% of
Pakistan’s annual Gross Domestic Product.
Detailed account of various statistics of China
Pakistan Economic Corridor is as under:-
• Components of China Pakistan Economic
Corridor. China Pakistan Economic Corridor
envisions establishment and construction of
following planned components in Pakistan:-
• Energy sector (coal, hydel, wind, solar,
Liquid Natural Gas and transmission).
• Transport Infrastructure (road, railway,
aviation).
• Gwadar Port (Gwadar City and allied
components development).
SITE

Economic Corridor as per the envisioned

KUAN MARJ

WALI DAD

timeline. EXISTING JARZAN

CONTAINER
RAILWAY YARD

• Gwadar standout as the economic hub of the

AIRPORT
GOTH GURRANDANI

region.
Coastal HWY
• Comparatively weak governance, under-
performing state institutions, religion-sectarian RE-LOCATION OF
GWADAR TOWN

fault lines and current energy crisis have the TOURISM

potentials to retard Pakistan’s growth.

DEVELOPMENT SUR BANDAR

NEW COMMERCIAL CENTER

PETROCHEMICAL &
EPZ GAS/OIL STORAGE
COMMERCIAL CENTER UTILITIES

Overview of China Pakistan Economic Corridor GREEN BELT

ADMINISTRATIVE AREA

The Concept. China Pakistan Economic Corridor

DEEP SEA PORT
HOUSING GWADAR EAST BAY
(DIMI ZARR)

aims at connecting Western China with Gwadar

OLD TOWN
GWADAR WEST BAY EAST BAY EXPRESS
(PADI ZARR)

through a corridor based on roads, railways and

WAY
GRAVE YARD FISH HARBOUR MINI
PORT

energy pipelines. It is not only a ‘game changer’ for N

China and Pakistan but for the entire region as well. SANGAR HOUSING
PAKISTAN NAVY

China Pakistan Economic Corridor has a spatial ARABIAN SEA

layout:- • Industrial cooperation (Gwadar Free Zone
• Three Passages. The western, central and and other industrial parks in Pakistan).
eastern routes.
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi called on Chief of Army Staff
(COAS) General Qamar Javed Bajwa
162 Green Book 2017 Green Book 2017 163
 PAKISTAN ARMY PAKISTAN ARMY

• Other planned facilities development the Centre and the Gwadar Port, Energy, A Pakistan Army soldier looks on during the opening
(construction of portion of Karachi-Lahore Infrastructure and Industrial Cooperation as of trade project in Gwadar port, some 700 km west of
Motorway and laying of Optical Fibre Cable). the four key areas. Broad categories of the planned Karachi
components of China Pakistan Economic Corridor
are as under:-

Serial CPEC Component Cost ($ Billion)

1 Energy Sector Projects 34.413
(coal, hydel, wind,
solar, Liquid Natural
Gas, gas pipeline and
transmission)
2 Communication 15.143
Infrastructure (road,
railway, aviation)

3 Gwadar Port related 0.793

Phases and Timeline. Completion of China
Pakistan Economic Corridor is spread over a 15
years plan comprising four phases, as under:-
• Early harvest - 2015 to 2018.
• Short term projects - 2020.
• Mid-term projects - 2025.
• Long term projects - 2030.
• Volume of Trade. Total expected trade
through China Pakistan Economic Corridor is
$ 1028 Billion. Even taking 50% of expected
trade as aggregate would be $500 Billion as
compared to total Pakistan trade which is
less than $70 Billion. It can be imagined how
beneficent this project can be for Pakistan.
China Pakistan Economic Corridor would
surely lead to a prosperous Pakistan. Total
trade of China was $3958 Billion in 2015.
China’s current trade with Middle East, Africa,
Turkey, Iran & United Kingdom is:-
CHINA TRADE VOLUME
Middle East $230 Billion
Africa $170 Billion
United Kingdom $82 Billion
Iran $52 Billion
Turkey $28 Billion
Investment Portfolio. More than $51 billion are
flowing in Pakistan in the form of investments by
state owned and private Chinese companies and
also as soft loan to Pakistan in the context of China
Pakistan Economic Corridor. This mega national
project broadly follows ‘a “1+4” cooperation
structure with the Economic Corridor at
Projects
4 Industrial and other 1.817
Projects
Total cost of CPEC 51.5
5
projects
Note:- With inclusion of new projects after 6th Joint Cooperation
Committee meeting, cost will increase up to $54.5 billion.
Challenges and Impediments
China Pakistan Economic Corridor is a mammoth
opportunity wrapped in multiple layers of threats.
For decades, Pakistan has suffered from instability
and violence at multiple fronts, at home as well
as in our western and eastern neighbourhood.
Resultantly, we have endured a prolonged period of
economic stagnation, violent radicalisation of vast
segments of our society and even the occasional
reprobation as one of the most dangerous countries
of the world. China Pakistan Economic Corridor
comes to us after Pakistan has already fought four
wars with its eastern neighbour, India alongside
fighting an arduous war on terror for the past
decade and a half, which has cost thousands
of human lives and immense economic losses.
Pakistan as a country and Pakistanis as a nation
are struggling to provide a conducive environment
to take this opportunity, China Pakistan Economic
Corridor, which has brought in its wake a range
of challenges posed by our internal weaknesses
and inadequacies as well as external threats from
regional and extra-regional actors averse to the idea
of a secure and prosperous Pakistan. Impediments
in the way of China Pakistan Economic Corridor are
because of six main reasons enumerated below:-
First, requirement of peace and stability for the
successful and timely completion of this project
because in an environment which is insecure and
violent, it will be highly difficult for the Chinese
workers and technicians to work efficiently and
deliver on construction works. Second, if China
is investing in Pakistan in mega-projects, it is the
responsibility on the part of Islamabad to build
its professional capacity and skills to meet the
deadlines for the construction of roads, railways
and power stations. Failure to meet deadlines
will have a negative impact on China Pakistan
Economic Corridor. Third, as repeatedly stated
by various government officials of Pakistani
elements, forces that are working against China
Pakistan Economic Corridor will try all methods
to sabotage mega initiative. For that purpose, such
forces will deepen their efforts to covertly sponsor
acts of sabotage, violence and terrorism. Fourth,
corruption, nepotism and inefficiency are major
impediments to launch successful mega-projects
in Pakistan. Islamabad will have to make sure that
negative factors in Pakistani society which tend to
discourage foreign investments are effectively dealt
with. Fifth, lack of consensus or undue criticism
about the route of China Pakistan Economic
Corridor is also a major source of concern both for
China and Pakistan because if such a mega-project
becomes a victim of political wrangling between the
government and the opposition, it will have a very
adverse impact on foreign investment and Pakistan
will lose a life time opportunity.
Besides the above, another aspect that proves to
be a major challenge is the timely development of
a comprehensive Long Term Plan for execution of
this mega project. Existing institutional oversight is
wanting. China Pakistan Economic Corridor section
within the Planning Commission has not really
been inspiring requisite confidence due to lack of

164 Green Book 2017 Green Book 2017 165

 PAKISTAN ARMY
a solid constitutional authority, technical capacity
and a sound regulatory mechanism.
In addition, lack of One Window Operation
for better command and control and smooth
interface between Security Forces raised for the
security of China Pakistan Economic Corridor and
Federal/Provincial government departments also
remains a challenge. Slow reforms in institutional
restructuring and lack of one window operations
at national level are likely to affect the timely
achievement of this mega project.
SECURITY CONCERNS
Regional Security Threats
Pakistan is confronting hybrid menace of
conventional and unconventional threats on both
of his eastern and western borders. With India on
the east, who is ambitious to become the regional
power and Afghanistan, a war torn and a politically
unstable country on the west, Pakistan is facing
significant security challenges.
Security of the China Pakistan Economic
Corridor is closely interlinked with regional
geopolitics, particularly with India’s defiant
attitude for peace. In India, many quarters have
raised concerns about the China Pakistan Economic
Corridor with particular reference to passage
through disputed territory and China’s access to
Indian Ocean region. Hence, violation of Line of
Control in Kashmir and backing of sectarian and
separatist movements/proxy wars in Balochistan
and Gilgit Baltistan by India adds to worsening of
security situation.
166 Green Book 2017
The Establishment of a special desk by India to
coordinate disruptive activities against China
Pakistan Economic Corridor by Indian Research
and Analysis Wing is a known fact.
The agency has allotted multi billion dollars at its
hand to sabotage this mega project.
There are also major concerns about the
Kunar and Nuristan provinces of Afghanistan,
where multiple terrorist groups including Al
Qaeda (AQ), the self-styled Islamic State (ISIS), the
Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), the Movement
of East Islamic Uzbekistan and the Turkmenistan
Islamic Movement (ETIM), etc. are concentrated.
These groups can pose a direct threat to the
China Pakistan Economic Corridor in Pakistan’s
northern region. In addition; smuggling/illegal
border crossing, refugees issue adds to instability
and worsening of the security situation with dire
consequences for development projects.
In addition to the distributed borders of
Pakistan with India and Afghanistan, an arc of low
level militancy stretches from Xinjiang to Gwadar.
These militant groups may not have enmity with
China itself but rather intend to attack the Chinese
interests, like the China Pakistan Economic Corridor,
as a means to directly hit Pakistani interests. In
addition the reports about support of Hostile
Intelligence agencies in assisting the militant
groups and Sub-Nationalists in the country to
conduct subversive acts through terrorist elements
to threaten Pak-Chinese plans of developing the
China Pakistan Economic Corridor are a concern.
Internal Security Problems
Every province/region of Pakistan is faced with
a set of security concerns some common to other
provinces and some particular to that region,
damaging the road to development and prosperity.
Region/province wise security concerns are
elaborated in succeeding paragraphs:
• Balochistan. The ongoing security situation in
Balochistan province makes up the most crucial
challenge for a successful implementation of
the China Pakistan Economic Corridor project
as Gwadar port is instrumental to its success.
Baloch sub-nationalists pose the key threat
in Gwadar and the coastal belt. Tehreek-e-
Taliban Pakistan and sectarian militants have
minimum presence in this region, however,
Baloch sub-nationalists can carry out low
intensity attacks targeting the China Pakistan
Economic Corridor-linked installations and
infrastructure and workers besides attempts of
kidnappings.
• Sindh. The level of threat is medium in
Karachi and very low in interior parts of
Sindh. Presence of large numbers of militant,
sectarian extremists and criminal elements in
Karachi increases the probability of attacks
on engineers and workers employed on China
Pakistan Economic Corridor projects and also
on security personnel deployed to provide
security to the project sites and workers.
Incidents of kidnapping cannot be ruled out
in Interior Sindh whereas Vehicle Bourne
Improvised Explosive Device had already been
experienced on Sukkhar-Rohri road during
move of Mega Trade Convoy.
• Punjab. The threat spectrum of Punjab shows
medium to low level threat due to better law
and order situation but criminals and members
of banned organisations who are taking refuge
in remote areas of Southern Punjab have the
potential to target China Pakistan Economic
Corridor related projects, especially in Southern
Punjab.
• Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Threat to China
Pakistan Economic Corridor in this region
is low because Hazara Division of Khyber
Pakhtunkhwa is relatively more peaceful and
safe from militancy. However, supporters of
Taliban are dispersed in the region and their
proximity to Afghan border and connections to
Tehreek-e Taliban Pakistan can pose security
PAKISTAN ARMY
threat to workers and engineers associated
with the China Pakistan Economic Corridor.
• Gilgit Baltistan. This region has seen plenty
of sectarian violence in the past. Some high
intensity attacks in recent years on security
forces and foreigners also reveal Tehreek-
e-Taliban Pakistan and other militants’
outreach to these areas. Absence of militant
bases and support structures in Gilgit and
Baltistan suggests that threat to China Pakistan
Economic Corridor in this region is likely to be
low. However, sporadic attacks on the China
Pakistan Economic Corridor-linked sites and
personnel cannot be ruled out. In addition
involvement of Research and Analysis Wing in
instigating people for launching of separatist
movements cannot be ruled out as well.
Security Mechanism against the Envisaged
Threats
Success of the China Pakistan Economic
Corridor is mainly contingent upon the
security arrangements. On the insistence
of China for assuring security of China
Pakistan Economic Corridor by Pakistan
Army, a new National Security Construct has
been formalised, wherein; Special Security
Division is spearheading the Integrated
Security Mechanism, which includes all
relevant agencies i.e. federal and provincial
Law Enforcement Agencies, Civil Armed
Forces and Private Security Guards (Army
Welfare Trust Security Services). The
physical security will be ensured by Special
Security Division through Integrated Security
Mechanism.
Special Security Division spearheads
the security mechanism and works as a linchpin
between all the three different tiers (Figure 1)
including:-
• Planning & Coordination tier in which
Special Security Division interface with key
stakeholders responsible for providing security
including concerned ministries, General
Headquarters and Chinese embassy.
• Intelligence Input tier in which Special Security
Division is being provided input by all the
intelligence agencies for development of
appropriate response.
• Execution tier in which Special Security Division
ensures physical security by incorporating all
Law Enforcement Agencies.
Green Book 2017 167
 PAKISTAN ARMY
(Figure 1)
• Special Security Division. The essential
details of Special Security Division include:-
• Raising. The raising of Special Security
Division started in July 2015 and completed
in June 2016. Soon after raising, the
Formation was fully operationalised and
has taken over security of all the running
China Pakistan Economic Corridor projects.
• Troops. Approximately 15,000 strong
force, comprising 9 x Composite Battalions
and 6 x Civil Armed Forces Wings are
integral to Special Security Division. Due
to anticipated expansion of the security
force, 2 x additional Brigade Headquarters;
one each at Karachi and Gwadar have also
been raised for beefing up the security.
• Mandate. The purpose/philosophy behind
raising of Special Security Division is to
contribute towards the construction of
China Pakistan Economic Corridor projects
and successful operation of China Pakistan
Economic Corridor by organising move
of Chinese trade goods from Kashghar
to Gwadar and Karachi ports employing
combination of rail and road networks. The
significant tasks of force are:-
• Leading the existing security
apparatus, already deployed by the
Federal and/or Provincial Government
and/or sponsor organisation, on the
China Pakistan Economic Corridor
Projects.
• Provide, ensure, articulate, monitor
and coordinate security of Chinese
nationals working on China Pakistan
Economic Corridor projects.
168 Green Book 2017
• Articulate a proactive advisory
and monitoring role for Non-China
Pakistan Economic Corridor projects to
remain viable as 2nd or 3rd tier responder
in case of any untoward incident.
Viability of Special Security Division
Besides being operationally prepared for
conventional operations, Special Security
Division is in full control of physical security at
all the projects under China Pakistan Economic
Corridor, across Pakistan. Over 21,000 Chinese
are working day and night, successfully on China
Pakistan Economic Corridor and Non-China
Pakistan Economic Corridor projects in absolute
safe and secure environment. The diverse array of
challenges emanating from formation’s dual role
and significance of its responsibility towards China
Pakistan Economic Corridor, demands agility,
adaptability and highest degree of professionalism.
Leading milestones that Special Security Division
has been able to achieve in a very short span of time
are:-
• Completed raising in a record time of just
one year wherein all the elements have been
deployed at project locations and have taken
over the China Pakistan Economic Corridor
projects. Timeline of raising, deployment and
operationalisation has been shown in Figure.
• Security audit of hundreds of China Pakistan
Economic Corridor and Non China Pakistan
Economic Corridor projects across Pakistan
was completed to identify the security lapses
which were shared with all stakeholders for
remedial measures.
• Articulated the security of pilot project first
trade convoy from Khunjerab to Gwadar by
integrating national security mechanism. This
The first Chinese trade convoy arrived at the Gwadar port through
CPEC as contingents of Special Security Division of the Pakistan Army
provided security to the convoy that travelled the 3,000 kms trade
route linked Xinjiang,China
effort contributed to visible operationalisation
of China Pakistan Economic Corridor
inculcating confidence amongst Chinese and
other regional stakeholders.
Besides achieving the leading milestones, Special
Security Division has formulated complete
set of Standing Operating Procedures for Law
Enforcement Agencies alongside a comprehensive
advisory for Chinese working inside Pakistan. In
addition, Special Security Division has been able to
establish smooth interface with all the stakeholders
to include Chinese Embassy and relevant Ministries.
A system of joint coordination at various levels has
also been established and activated for sustaining
Integrated Security Mechanism.
(Figure 2)
A Central Security Nerve Centre has been established
at the formation headquarters connected through
line and wireless communication with all the
projects across Pakistan and controls/monitors all
the projects round the clock. In addition Central
Security Nerve Centre has been developed to assist
in generation of appropriate and timely response.
The main concept behind establishment of
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Central Security Nerve Centre is to synergise the
efforts of all the stakeholders responsible for
security of Chinese, smooth interface between
security and intelligence agencies and for
monitoring of foolproof security at the project
sites.
For smooth execution/implementation of China
Pakistan Economic Corridor projects and provision
of comprehensive security arrangements, a Joint
Working Group on Security at National level and
committees at Provincial, Division and District
level have been established. These committees are
connected to Special Security Division at each tier
and work under the guidance of the Chairman,
Prime Minister of Pakistan.
Besides security of the administrative
camps, work camps and work sites, Special Security
Division is also providing security to Chinese
nationals working in any context on China Pakistan
Economic Corridor during move from camps to
work sites and to their headquarters in Islamabad.
Way Forward. To ensure secure enabling
environment in line with vision to undertake huge
economic development and regional connectivity
projects like China Pakistan Economic Corridor,
following short to medium and medium to long
term recommendations are proffered:-
• Short to Mid Term
• Taking the National Action Plan and the
on-going operation Radd-ul-Fasaad to their
logical ends but importantly, as a national
whole-of-government commitment.
• Supplementing and consolidating the
gains of both these operations with good
governance along with institutional and
administrative reforms
• Evolve a comprehensive security
architecture that concentrates all the
federal and provincial capacities under
one agency.
• Enabling security forces (Special Security
Division), particularly through correct
command articulation, providing
operational space and high tech equipment.
• Persevering along the current path in
Balochistan, that is, politico-economic
focus combined with consolidation of
security gains.
• Given Karachi’s relevance to China Pakistan
Economic Corridor’s eastern alignment and
overall economy, the ongoing anti-crime
campaign must be provided the much-
Green Book 2017 169
 PAKISTAN ARMY
needed governmental, administrative,
legal and political support.
• Mid to Long Term
• China Pakistan Economic Corridor to be
used as an opportunity to consolidate
national integration.
• China Pakistan Economic Corridor could
be extended to selected regional partners
to enhance regional security and economic
cooperation with the condition that the
third country would be required to commit
to peace, security and development of the
region.
• Effective law enforcement along with
redress of legitimate grievances in China
Pakistan Economic Corridor-proximate
regions of Balochistan, tribal regions along
Pak-Afghan border, and Gilgit-Baltistan.
• Capacity building of Civil Armed Forces in
line with their enhanced role in combating
170 Green Book 2017
Conclusion
The multidimensional China Pakistan Economic
Corridor project is capable of paving the way for
regional economic and trade connectivity and
developing integration between the region of
South, Central and East Asia. The China Pakistan
Economic Corridor as a flagship of ‘One Belt, One
Road’ is expected to benefit millions of people
of the region as the project has the capacity to
boost economic activities, increase trade linkages,
enhance technical cooperation, generate new
financial opportunities, and amplify socio cultural
connectivity among people in the region. The
execution of this inclusive project would bring
economic revolution that can transform the fate of
the regional states in a positive way. Statistically
China Pakistan Economic Corridor is likely to
positively affect, directly or indirectly, more than
65 countries of Asia, Middle East, Africa and some
parts of Europe, approximately 4 billion population
and almost 3/4th of the world. For Pakistan and
China, China Pakistan Economic Corridor appears
to be a significant project. It provides China with an
alternate secure trade channel to import energy and
explore new avenues of investment for its export
based economy for Pakistan, an opportunity to
urban terrorism and protection of China
Pakistan Economic Corridor.
• Capacity building of Police with a special
focus on de-politicisation, training, and
addressing personnel and equipment
deficiencies.
• Better regulation and monitoring of levies
and tribal Lashkars, especially in terms
of community-based policing of China
Pakistan Economic Corridor and related
developmental projects.
• Efforts be made for Human Resource
development to enhance students
exchange programmes for creation of
skilled and technical manpower. The step
will also assist in developing a pool of
qualified individuals readily available for
technical projects.
• Continue research on social impact, urban
development and policy reforms with a
view to maximise benefits of CPEC.
PAKISTAN ARMY
economic progress. Although we face multifarious
challenges in the operationalisation of China
Pakistan Economic Corridor but a good start
has already provided hope for a prosperous and
harmonious future for not only China and Pakistan
but for the entire region. However, to fully benefit
from this opportunity we will have to rise to the
occasion; our discipline, attitudes and commitment
has to be commensurate.
BIBLIOGRAPHY
1. Abid, Mussarat and Ashfaq, Ayesha, China Pakistan Economic Corridor:
Challenges and Opportunities for Pakistan, Pakistan Vision Vol. 16 No. 2.
2. Bhattacharjee, Dr. Dhrubajyoti, China Pakistan Economic Corridor, Issue
3.
Brief, Indian Council of World Affairs, May 2015.
Aslam, Sabah, Khan, Farid, and Rafi, Asad, China Pakistan Economic
Corridor: Pakistan’s Way to Success IICR Special Report September 2016.
4. Ali, Akber, China Pakistan Economic Corridor: Prospects and Challenges for
Regional Integration, Arts and Social Sciences Journal, Volume 7, Issue 4, July
5.
20, 2016.
Javaid Umbreen, Assessing China Pakistan Economic Corridor: Potential
Threats and Prospects.
6. Mahmood, Majid, China - Pakistan Economic Corridor The Geo Strategic
Dimension and Challenges, CISS Insight: Quarterly News & Views.
7. Khalid Manzoor Butt, Anam Abid Butt, 2015, Impact of China Pakistan
Economic Corridor on Regional and Extra Regional Actors, Journal of Political
Science.
8. Sial, Safdar, The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor: an assessment of
potential threats and constraints.
9.
10.
Asif Haroon Raja, China-Pakistan Energy Corridor.
Elahi, Naveed, China Pakistan Economic Corridor - Security Threats &
Solutions: A Strategy, November 2015.
11. Ahmar, Moonis, Strategic Meaning of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor.
12. CPEC info.gov.pk
13. PC.gov.pk
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Major Saif Ul Halim

The Officer is serving in Pakistan Army

Climate Change and its Impact on Pakistan

“This is especially true for climate change and environmental sustainability, where
we are perilously close to running out of time . ” 1

(Barry Brook)
Abstract: Climate around the globe has altered over a period of time which can be attributed to the
emission of Greenhouse Gases primarily carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide. This paper highlight
that modification in climate has significantly impacted the world in the shape of frequent floods, cyclones,
storms and ascend in temperature etc. thereby impinging on national security of the states. Pakistan
being a developing country is particularly vulnerable to climate change due to its geographical location.
The paper argues that climate change poses significant threats to Pakistan in the form of rapid recession
of glaciers resulting into floods and droughts, rise in sea level and temperature; thereby impacting the
food, health and energy security of the country. Besides the direct impact of climate change on national
security; food, health and energy aspects also affect the national security indirectly in the form of violence
and chaos. The article recommends that by enforcing National Climate Change Policy-2012, adopting a
pro-active approach to the issue through scaling down the emissions of greenhouse gases, developing /
constructing water reservoirs, and most of all imparting awareness in public about grimness of the issue
will help Pakistan to dilute the impacts of climate change on national security of Pakistan.
Key Words: Contributing factors, Climate Change Threats, Impact on National Security, Awareness
Campaign, Action Strategy

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 PAKISTAN ARMY
I
n present era, Climate change is the most
significant challenge being confronted by
the world. Significance of the issue can be
evaluated from Ban Ki-moon’s statement
at Paris climate agreement December 2015
that, “We are the last generation that can
take steps to avoid the worst impact of climate
change”. This trend is mainly caused by emission
of greenhouse gases (GHG), like carbon dioxide,
methane and nitrous oxide in atmosphere.2 Its
detrimental impacts are already unfolding in the
form of extreme weather events like cyclones,
storms, floods, droughts; whose rate of recurrence
and magnitude is on the rise. The climate across the
globe has noticeably begun altering since industrial
era; with increase in carbon dioxide density due to
deforestation and enormous use of fuels etc.3 As
per Inter Governmental Panel on Climate Change
(IPCC), before end of current century, the average
temperature may rise between 1.4 to 5.8 degrees.4
This incomparable rise in temperature will have
noteworthy effects on not only global hydrological
system, sea level, agriculture and related aspects
but also surpass the national security of affected
states. The impact of climate change will be more
pronounced in hot/humid areas, which include
mainly developing countries, like Pakistan.
According to United Nations Development
Programme (UNDP), Pakistan is considered to
be one of the most vulnerable and susceptible
174 Green Book 2017
countries to climate change across the globe;
with threats to water, food and energy security.5
Flash floods of 2010 to 2016 (almost every year)
in consequence of glaciers’ melting and erratic
rains and droughts in Sindh (Tharparker) are case
in point. Moreover, the human and economic
losses as a result of climate change are higher than
terrorism. As per UNDP country director, Pakistan’s
losses due to climate change are $6 billion whereas
losses caused by terrorism are around $1 billion.6
According to a report by Asian Development
Bank, by 2050 there will be more than 150 million
people in Pakistan living in “hot spots” exposed
to floods and droughts.7 Pakistan Armed Forces
being integral part of the society is also affected
from climate change threats; directly upsetting the
national security of Pakistan.
The collective effect of water, food and
energy securities, economic losses coupled
with health issues and effects on Armed Forces,
developed as a result of climate change, will have
serious repercussions on the national security of
Pakistan. It is in this backdrop that an effort has
been made to evaluate the impact of Climate Change
on the national security of Pakistan in the light of
Government of Pakistan climate change policy and
suggest an action strategy for Pakistan to decrease
the effects of climate change.
Aim
To analyse the impact of climate change on
the national security of Pakistan in the light of
Government of Pakistan Climate Change policy and
suggest an action strategy to enable Pakistan to
minimise the impending dangers of climate change.
This paper shall be focused on following
essentials, whose analysis merits immediate
attention and response:-
• Definition and factors contributing to climate
change.
• Climate change threats to Pakistan.
• Impact of climate change on National Security
of Pakistan.
• Action strategy for Pakistan to counter the
effects of climate change.
Definition and Factors Contributing to Climate
Change
Definitions. There are various definitions of climate
change, out of which a couple are as under:-
Dictionary meaning is “long-term change in earth’s
climate, especially a change due to an increase in
the average atmospheric temperature.” 8
• As per encyclopedia “Climate change is
a change in the statistical distribution of
weather patterns when that change lasts for
an extended period of time (i.e., decades to
millions of years). Climate change may refer to
a change in average weather conditions, or in
the time variation of weather around longer-
PAKISTAN ARMY
term average conditions (i.e., more or fewer
extreme weather events) ”.
Factors Contributing to Climate Change. The
greenhouse gases and its radioactive energy is
principally the main reason of climate change.
After industrial revolution global atmospheric
accumulation of these gases has increased
considerably, resulting into climate change. The
greenhouse gases i.e. carbon dioxide; methane
and nitrous oxide are increasing due to human
activities. Concentration of carbon dioxide is
increasing primarily as a result of excessive use of
fossil fuels, while concentration of methane and
nitrous oxide is due to agriculture.
Pakistan ranks 135th in world ranking,
contributing only 0.8% to global emissions,
which is equivalent to 1.9 tons of CO2 per
individual.9 The contribution of different gases
in these emissions is; 54% CO2, 36% Methane,
9% Nitrous Oxide, 0.7% Carbon Monoxide
and 0.3% Non-Methane Volatile Organic
Compounds.10 Out of these, energy sector
accounts for nearly 51% emissions, agriculture
sector 39%, industrial sector 6%, land use,
land use change and forestry emissions 3% and
wastes 1%.11
The factors which contribute to climate change are:-
• Movable Factors. These comprise mainly
transport, railways and aircrafts and
Green Book 2017 175
 PAKISTAN ARMY
contributes about one fourth of carbon dioxide
emissions in Pakistan.12 These emissions are
more in form of “Hot Spots” in urban areas due
to more number of transport vehicles.
• Immovable Factors
• Energy Sector. This sector has more
dependence on furnace oil and natural
gas; which has lowest carbon, whereas
less dependence on coal; which has
highest carbon. The reserves of natural
gas and local oil are depleting, however,
coal reserves are estimated to be around
185 billion ton.13 Shifting reliance to coal
will increase emissions of carbon in
atmosphere.
• Agriculture Sector. Emissions from this
sector are methane (79%) and nitrous
oxide (39%). These are primarily from four
sub-sectors; fermentation in cattle, rice
cultivation, nitrous fertilisers and manure
management. 14
• Industrial Sector. Emissions are mainly
from sugar, cement, steel, fertilisers
and textile industries. This sector is also
responsible for more than one fourth of
emissions attributed to energy sector.15
This sector contributes 24 % to GDP17 in
form of foreign export earnings.
Climate Change Threats to Pakistan
Pakistan is vulnerable to different threats emanating
from Climate Change. These are16:-
• Continuous depletion of glaciers present in
Pakistan’s north, affecting the inflows into
Indus River System. According to Pakistan
Economic Survey 2014-15, the glaciers of
Pakistan present in northern region are melting
faster than any other part of the world.17 Pakistan
Meteorological Department has Meteorological
Recording Stations at Skardu, Gilgit and
Astore but it does not cover the complete area.
Moreover, no Weather Forecasting Radar exists
in these areas.
• Substantial increase in the frequency and
intensity of weather/climate events has resulted
into unpredictable monsoon rains and floods.
Floods in Pakistan are now a regular feature.
• Frequent and intensive droughts are also an
outcome of extreme weather events due to
Climate Change.18
• Sedimentation/siltation of major dams due to
frequent floods.
176 Green Book 2017
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• Decrease in agriculture productivity due to rise
in temperature resulting into more heat and
paucity of water.
• Increased incursion of brackish water in Indus
delta. Carbon dioxide dissolving into the oceans
is making sea-water more acidic. There could
be impact on coral reefs and other marine life.19
• Rise in sea level due to enhanced temperature
posing threat to coastal areas. Presently
Pakistan has 10% of its population living in
the vicinity of coastal areas; 40% industrial
zone is located at or near coasts. Due to the
frequent movement of tectonic plates, the coast
of Balochistan is rising above sea level, but
Sindh coast will be affected from sea level rise
as most either equal or below sea level.20 Owing
to climate change the rate of sea level rise in
coastal areas of Pakistan is 1.1mm/year. 21
• Rise in temperature is a symptom of
climate change which occurs mainly due to
deforestation and rapid urbanisation.
• Due to climate change the frequency of cyclones
in Arabian Sea has increased over past 10-15
years. Moreover, a string of tropical activities
in Arabian Sea, in last few years, shows an
increasing trend towards cyclones.22
• Water scarcity is also outcome of climate
change. According to UN estimates, annual
per capita availability of water is 1,090
cubic metre, 23 which was 5260 cubic metre
in 1953.24 By 2035, Pakistan is estimated to
become water scarce from water stressed;
less than 500 cubic metre per capita. 25
Main reasons of this decline are rise in
temperature resulting in recession of
glaciers and variation in precipitation; and
increase in demand.
• Enhanced health issues due to climate change.
Impact of Climate Change on National Security of “Access to basic amenities still remains a dream “ A person
Pakistan collecting water in water scarced deserts of Pakistan
Before discussing the impact of climate change
on National Security of Pakistan, it is pertinent • Violence. It is deliberate use of physical unable to act in response, it may lead to chaos,
to explain first, the national security in context force or power against other person or group affecting the national security.
of climate change. As per Wikipedia, “National resulting into injury or death. Water scarcity, • Civil War. It is a war between organised groups
Security is a concept that a government should energy shortage, inequality, injustice, political within the same state or country. Denying
protect the state and citizens against all kinds instability are some of the elements forcing a provinces the provision of basic privileges of
of national crisis, through a variety of power group to adopt violence. Violence becoming essential necessities like food, energy and water
projections”. Beside military factor, other elements uncontrollable can seriously impede the may lead to a civil war; which will hamper the
are food, energy, economic, health securities etc. national security. national security.
Following are some of the end result • Chaos. It means complete disorder and Pakistan, in consequence of its peculiar geography
scenarios emanating from climate change affecting confusion, lawlessness, anarchy or lack of law will be more vulnerable to climate change. Due
national security:- enforcement. When in any crisis, government is to its large arid and semi-arid area, any change in
temperature and rainfall pattern may influence
Green Book 2017 177
 PAKISTAN ARMY PAKISTAN ARMY

food security, affecting millions of people thereby

impacting indirectly national security, as a
result becoming a national crisis and entailing
involvement of armed forces in search and rescue
operations. Secondly, outcomes of climate change
may also affect directly the armed forces; recent
casualties to men and material due to floods in
Chitral region, is case in point. Pakistan’s 22.8%
area and 49.6% population is at direct risk due to
this phenomenon.26 Moreover, currently Pakistan
has to rely on foreign assistance for weather forecast
due to non-availability of own satellite. The impact
of climate change on national security of Pakistan
is covered in detail in ensuing paragraphs:-
• Melting Glaciers. Its impact on national
security of Pakistan is:-
• It is one of the reasons of extensive floods
in Pakistan, because there are no adequate
measures to confine/stock up glaciated
water feeding different rivers of Pakistan.
• Its constant recession will affect the inflow
of water in Indus River System creating
water strain within the country.
• Melting glaciers will also have following
impact on troops employed in that region:-
• It may cause abrupt avalanches
which may cause damage to men and in the 2010 floods alone exceed US$ 9.6 • Large numbers of troops take part • Employment/deployment of different arms,
material at posts/unit headquarters, billion.29 Non availability of funds by in such operations thereby diverting especially armour, artillery, air defence
established in valleys or slopes of international donors and inaction by concentration from primary task. and engineers resources in operational
mountains. Gyari incident in April 2012 successive governments have contributed Exploitation of such situation by area will turn into a colossal effort in
is the case in point. towards inaction in Dams’ construction. adversary on eastern border cannot be flooded water or muddy conditions.
• It will amplify the number and span of • Any erratic change in seasons due to climate ruled out. • It will surely affect the health of
crevasses in route of parties going to, change will reduce the harvesting season • Floods will also affect the armed forces troops due to diseases resulting as an
and from, the posts. for crops thereby resulting in a decline of directly thereby disturbing the national aftermath of floods.
• Right now neither Forecasting Radar crops’ yields. Moreover, water logging due security of Pakistan. Some of the effects • It may also affect the air fields thus
nor Meteorological Station is available to floods and salinity in coastal areas are are:- affecting the operational efficacy of
with armed forces in these areas. other factors contributing to sinking crops • It causes damage to men and material, Air Force.
• Heavier Rainfall and Floods. Impact of production. especially in mountainous regions • Droughts. Its impact on national security are:-
rainfall and floods on national security of • Excessive floods have increased the where less warning time is available. • Drought in Tharparker district has turned
Pakistan are:- sedimentation/silting in water reservoirs.30 Casualties of Army in recent floods of into a national crisis. In 2016 alone, it
• Climate change has affected the rain Resultantly the storage capacity of these July 16 are the case in point. has claimed lives of 160 children due to
pattern in Pakistan. The main rainfall reservoirs has decreased, affecting the • It will cause damage to static or drought-related water borne and viral
season i.e. Monsoon has been affected power generation, thereby increasing risk immovable military infrastructure, diseases. South Eastern parts of Sindh and
adversely; not only the timings of the to National Energy Security. which becomes submerged or is in South Western parts of Balochistan are
season are disturbed but the area/region is • National resources, especially armed close vicinity to the current/flow/span most affected by mild drought (refer map).
also shifted/changed.27 forces, are employed for relief/search of floods. • Due to drought, the rivers’ current has
• Floods cause enormous damage to and rescue operations. It has following • It will damage/affect the communication reduced significantly, resultantly drying
human lives, livestock, public and private implications:- infrastructure i.e. roads and railway the irrigation canals and drinking water
infrastructure. The most devastating flood • Wear and tear of equipment, especially tracks, thus disturbing the relief/ reservoirs in these areas; affecting
was in 2010, which affected almost one vehicles, engineers/marines and rotation or operational move of units/ agriculture, immense losses to human and
fifth of the country, creating a national aviation resources from Army and formations. animals’ lives and deficiency of food and
crisis. Apart from 1,754 persons dead Navy are utilised. • It will damage the defence construction water.
and 20 million displaced, damage to • A huge amount of fuel is utilised in along border affecting directly the • Permanent recurrence of drought will
infrastructure was enormous.28 Losses such operations. operational efficiency of units. create chaos particularly in such areas

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 PAKISTAN ARMY
and other linked areas in general, thereby
affecting the national security of Pakistan.
• Increasing Frequency of Cyclones/Tsunami.
• Rise in Sea Level. The impact of rise in sea
level are:-
• Approximately 2 metres ascend in sea
level may submerge about 7,500 square
kilometre in Indus Delta.
• Karachi, the commercial hub of Pakistan,
which is 8 metre above sea level, may sink
in ocean by 2060, while Badin and Thatta in
2050.31 Other low lying areas of Indus Delta
Residents grab water bottles dropped
from a Pakistan Army helicopter during
floods.
180 Green Book 2017
PAKISTAN ARMY
may also be affected. It requires immediate
planning and remedies to counter such
circumstances; as Karachi is the industrial
hub of Pakistan having direct impact on
economy; hampering national security of
Pakistan.
• It will also affect the Static Installations
of Navy and Coast Guards located along
coastal areas.
Impact of these cyclones/tsunami are:-
• It will cause damage to men and material.
Yemyin cyclone of 2007, which killed 730
people beside other damages in coastal
areas of Balochistan and Sindh32 is the case
in point.
• Possibility of these cyclones in future
hitting a metropolis city like Karachi will
be a catastrophe. Occurrence of such
incidents will create national crisis having
implications on national security of
Pakistan.
• It will cause damage to men and material
of Navy and Coast Guards; affecting overall Stranded Pakistanis wade through water for safe areas in
Muzaffargarh near Multan During floods 2010
operational efficiency of both.
• Cyclones on land will cause damage not
only to lives but infrastructure as well. • Rise in Temperature. It has following GDP36 but most of the population along
implications:- coastal areas depends on fisheries for
• It will pose threat to human and animal lives livelihood.
in the form of heat strokes or dehydration. • Impact on Agriculture
Heat wave in southern parts of Pakistan in • Agriculture is a life line of Pakistan’s
June 2015, which has resulted in death of economy. Not only is 45% of workforce
2000 people,33 is the case in point. Such connected to it, but it also contributes
heat waves may turn into national crisis 21% to GDP37 and ensures national food
affecting the national security. security. Being agrarian based, Pakistan’s
• Rise in temperature will also have following agriculture will be affected the most due
impact on troops:- to climate change. Some of the impact has
• It will affect the health of troops, already been discussed above.
especially heat strokes will increase. • It is obvious from above facts that climate
• It will affect the efficiency of troops change will not only affect the lifeline of
thus affecting the training. Pakistan, but will have significant effect on
• It will also affect the viabilty of economy as well. Wheat crisis in 2013 has
equipment due to their potential to not only created rift between the provinces
expand in ascending temperature. but wheat had to be imported. So any
• Only one degree rise in temperature danger to food security in future due to
may reduce the Wheat yield by 6-9%;34 climate change will create chaos/violence
which is the major nutrient all over thereby affecting the national security of
Pakistan, whereas the cash earner crops Pakistan.
like mango and cotton may be affected • Water Scarcity. Paucity of water will have
with even lower temperatures. following implications:-
• Pakistan is one of those thirty three • Agriculture production will decline against
countries, where rise in ocean temperature growing population affecting food security
is depleting the stock of fisheries.35 thus putting a strain on national security.
Although it contributes to only 0.3% of
Green Book 2017 181
 PAKISTAN ARMY
• Unequal distribution of water will lead to
conflict and violence between upper and
lower riparian.
• It will also seriously hamper national
energy security, due to decrease in water
flow in rivers affecting the primary source
of power generation. The gap between the
supply and demand is already increasing
with every passing day; shortage of power
will create unrest leading to violence
protest, affecting national security of
Pakistan.
• Water and Power Development Authority
has prepared a draft of National Water
Policy but its finalisation is still uncertain
because of serious reservations of the
provinces.
• Impact on Health
• The effects on quality of water, food,
amplified heat stress and increasing
frequency of natural disasters due to
climate change; will virtually affect human
health. Moreover, the vector borne diseases
like dengue, malaria, typhoid and cholera
(in consequence of floods), a significant
Pakistan Army soldiers evacuate a baby in district Shorkot
near Jhang During floods 2010
182 Green Book 2017
cause of deaths in Pakistan, are climate
sensitive and known to prosper in warmer
regions.38
• The cost of health in Pakistan, which is
already exceeding Rs 22.4 billion,39 will
enhance further with climate change,
thus affecting the poverty decline and
health improvement measures.
• Impact on National Energy Security.
Pakistan’s national energy security is also
affected by change in climate. Some of the
critical factors are :-
• Shortage and scarcity of water, variation
in flow of rivers will affect hydropower
generation. Moreover, the cost of energy
production will increase due to more
reliance on fuel thereby making energy
expensive for general public.
• Rise in temperature will require more
energy/ power, whereas the proportion of
production and consumption is not similar.
Moreover, production of energy also does
not correspond with population growth.
These two factors will bring general public
on roads creating law and order situation.
Mob after getting uncontrollable may
damage public/private properties. It will
have serious impact on not only economy
but national security of Pakistan also.
The above discussed factors are a threat to the
survival of Pakistan, particularly with regards to
water security, food security and energy security;
leading to national emergency and resultantly
impacting overall National Security of Pakistan.
Action Strategy for Pakistan
National Level Strategy. Pakistan needs to adapt
itself to Climate Change by adopting proactive
approach rather than being reactive. It can be
done by implementing national strategies spelt
out in National Climate Change Policy 2012 and
Framework for Implementation of Climate Change
Policy 2013 in true letter and spirit; and allocating
consistent funding for important projects affecting
climate change. Following should be done to
minimise the effects of climate change:-
• Launching of Weather Forecast
Satellite. Efforts should be made at
National level for launching weather
satellites for early weather forecast; it will,
in turn, help Pakistan to adopt preventive
measures against future extreme weather
circumstances.
• Construction/Desilting of Dams
• More reservoirs and dams are needed
to prevent floods generated from
melting glaciers. Efforts should be
made by government for construction
of Diamer-Basha, Dasu, Bunji and
Kalabagh Dams. It requires more than
just political will as construction of
dams is now a matter of survival for
Pakistan.
• Dams will not only help to protect lower
riparian areas from floods but will
also aid in generating cheap power.
Additionally the amount expended by
government on repair of bridges, roads
and other infrastructure (damages as
a result of floods) can be utilised for
financing other welfare projects.
• Feasibility study should also be
carried out to increase the existing
storage capacity/height of dams like
Tarbela, Warsak in line with Mangla
Dam carried out in 2009. Silting and
sedimentation which decreases the
storage capacity/power generation
may be cost effective and may even
PAKISTAN ARMY
become costlier than construction of
new dams.40
• Strategy against Rise in Sea Level.
Government should take account of
Climate-related migration in Climate
Change Policy. Possible sites should be
selected at Balochistan’s coast, as it is
rising due to tectonic movements. Major
underlying areas should be accorded
priority for re-settlement. Following may
be done at appropriate echelons:-
• Site should be selected and feasibility
should be carried out for settlement of
population of most affected areas from
rise in sea level.
• Setting up of new industries should
be carried out after due consideration.
New site may be allocated outside
on coasts of Balochistan. Moreover
shifting/establishment of existing
industries at new location should also
be given consideration.
• Improving Energy Security
• Energy should be generated from,
environmentally, friendly and cheaper
power generation projects; like Hydro.
• Reliance on fossil fuel for energy
production should be shifted to other
renewable energy resources like
Wind and Tidal and Non-renewable
source like Nuclear. Moreover, energy
production from coal should not be
considered; which produces maximum
carbon emissions.
• Existing energy should be preserved to
decrease the supply and demand gap
avoiding violence and grievances of
public. A couple are:-
• Timings of all commercial markets
for opening and closing be fixed
from 0800 to 2000 hrs respectively.
• Power theft be dealt with an iron
hand to reduce the line losses.
• Overcoming Droughts: The measures
mentioned below will not only help the
population to overcome drought like
situation in South Eastern part of Sindh
and South-Western part of Balochistan; but
troops in these areas will also be benefitted.
Following should be done phase wise:-
• Phase-1. Fresh water should
be provided on priority basis to
population of drought affected areas
through water bowzers etc.
Green Book 2017 183
 PAKISTAN ARMY
• Phase-2. A pipeline should be laid for
uninterrupted provision of drinking
water and for normal usage.
• Phase-3. In final phase cemented
sub-surface covered canals should be
constructed in these areas for irrigation
purposes.
• Water reservoirs in the form of underground
water tanks should be constructed for
nonstop availability of water in these areas.
• Reducing Water Scarcity
• There is a dire need for finalisation and
implementation of already prepared
National Water Policy. The reservation
of provinces should be addressed
before its finalisation.
• Government should devise and
promote methods for conserving
of water. Strategies for harvesting
rain water, recycling of water and
drip irrigation system would help in
conserving water.
• At individual level, public should
be made aware for preserving and
conserving water through media.
184 Green Book 2017
• Strategy for Food Security
• We need to have more investment in
Research and Development sector on
heat resistant crops e.g., wheat which
is the main intake for most people;
rice, main component of earning
foreign exchange; and cotton, which is
the back bone of Textile industry.
• More water demanding crops such
as sugar cane and few variety of rice
should be phased out gradually.
• Modern irrigation technologies can be
precious. More access should be given
to farmers for seeds, fertilisers and
pesticide before start of season; it will
certainly improve the net productivity.
• Strategy for Health Security. Owing to
increase in temperature, especially in
plains, proper Heat Stroke Centres should
be established at Hospitals and Basic
Health Units. Government should also
promote preventive measures in general
public against water borne diseases.
• Reducing Emissions of Carbon Dioxide
PAKISTAN ARMY
be allowed to enter in a city or even ply
on road.
• Strategy to Support Government’s Climate
Change Initiative by Armed Forces.
Pakistan Armed Forces should assist the
Government in implementing Climate Change
Policy; as repercussions are affecting the national
security of Pakistan. A possible support strategy at
Armed Forces level is as under:-
• Strategy against Melting Glaciers
• A portable Meteorological Station
(price starts from Rs 10,000 only)
should be based at Battalion
Headquarters for recording of weather,
facilitating precautionary measures
against weather hazards.
• 2 x Weather Forecasting Radars (worth
10 million only) in harmony with
Meteorological Department should be
based at appropriate locations; which
will be sufficient for complete Gilgit
Baltistan region. It will aid in taking
preventive measures against weather
extremes.
• Periodic survey of glaciers through
aerial/imageries and porting
parties in case of crevasses should
“ Smile .. against all odds “ be carried out, especially in those
areas which can affect the deployed
• Managing Forests. We need to grow troops. In case of any danger, these
forests which have many intrinsic troops should be re-located in line
advantages. It will not only limit the with Goma and Gyong re-location
magnitude of CO2 in atmosphere but projects.
will also help watershed protection, • Strategy against Rise in Sea Level and
absorbing flash floods and preventing Cyclone/Tsunami
soil erosion. Billion Tree Tsunami, • Shifting of Naval/coast guard
started by Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, is a installations and expansion of both
step in the right direction. However at above mentioned forces should be
National level no tangible steps have planned at Ormara, Pasni and Gwader;
been taken for forestation. coast comparatively being higher from
• Transport. Emissions from transport sea level.
can be reduced by implementation of • To safeguard against Tsunami/
following strategy:- cyclones, important installations
• The allowed quantity of back blow should be built on high ground; where
gases for each type of vehicle should not possible evacuation shelters
be fixed by the government. Vehicles should be built for evacuation of
fitness certificate (from nominated personnel and valuable equipment to
workshops) should be made part of these shelters in case circumstances
annual taxation of vehicles. arise.
• Colour codes should be devised on the • Strategy against Floods
basis of back blow gases. These should • In case of heavy floods like 2010,
be pasted on wind screens of vehicles, sufficient safe guards should be taken
e.g. a vehicle with more than specified along eastern borders mainly due to
amount of back blow gases should not two reasons:-
Green Book 2017 185
 PAKISTAN ARMY
•
To discourage any adventure by
our adversary, when Armed Forces
are employed in relief operations.
• No movement during/after the
floods will be possible as vital
communication infrastructure will
be flooded.
• Drainage arrangements of flood water
should be considered in infrastructure
which can be affected by floods.
• More plantations should be done on
defence construction, especially bunds, to
avoid erosion due to floods.
• Strategy against Rise in Temperature
• Troops should be exposed minimum to
heat with instructions for more fluids
intake.
• Shelters should be provided for all
important weapons and equipment
which can be affected by heat thus
affecting operational efficiency.
• Technical inspection should be carried
out of all equipment after intensive
heat wave to check their efficacy.
Awareness Raising. Above all, general public
should be educated through reach out programmes
such as various state sponsored advertisements for
educating/bringing awareness in them on Climate
Change issue.
Conclusion
“Climate change is a terrible problem, and it absolutely
needs to be solved. It deserves to be a huge priority”41
(Bill Gates)
Climate Change is a severe hazard being confronted
by Pakistan. Its impact on Pakistan is already
unfolding in the shape of frequent floods, droughts,
ascend in temperature and sea, unpredictable
monsoon season and cyclones. We need to grant
it high priority; as its affects are threatening the
national security of Pakistan. By enforcing the goals
spelt out in National Climate Change Policy-2012,
consistent funding/rendering more significance to
projects affecting Climate Change like construction
of dams/reservoirs, forestation etc; we can
minimise the effects of Climate Change on national
security. However, a lot depends on leadership and
intent of the Nation to solve this concern, which is
threatening the existence of Pakistan.
186 Green Book 2017
PAKISTAN ARMY
“The impact of climate change is a tremendous risk
to the security and well-being of our countries”42
(Nancy Pelosi)
Pakistani Media
An Element of National Power
NOTES
Abstract: Media in any form, may it be electronic, print and social media,
1. http://www.c3headlines.com/global-warming-quotes-climate-change-quotes. plays an important role in setting public agenda. The wars of recent past
stand testimony to the fact that the media played highly effective role
html, accessed on 2 Jun 2016
2. IPCC. 2007. Climate Change 2007: Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on
3.
Climate, Cambridge University Press, United Kingdom.
Stern Review: The Economics of Climate Change. 2006. HM Treasury, London.
in order to galvanise the actions of the armed forces through effectively
4. Zia Mustafa, Climate Change and its Impact on Pakistan, available at https:// sensitizing the opponent’s mind and molding the world opinion. Media
industry of Pakistan is growing fast with much potential and seemingly
www.pecongress.org.pk/images/upload/books/8Climate%20Change%20
and%20its%20Impact%20with%20Special%20Focus%20in%20Pakistan.pdf,
5.
accessed on 4 Jun 16
M.A. Zuberi, Climate Change Pakistan among most vulnerable countries,
bright future ahead. Media in Pakistan has played an important role
Business Recorder, May 26 2015 in national building, reshaping and changing the opinion of people.
The media mainly television has become the main story telling vehicle
6. ibid
7. http://tribune.com.pk/story/998757/as-climate-impacts-hit-pakistan-faces-
8.
migration-surge-experts/, accessed on 4 Jun 2016
http://www.dictionary.com/browse/climate-change, accessed on 2 Jun 2016
and the journalists have become the key players in legend making and
9. Ali Hassan Shabbir, Review of Climate Change Policy of Pakistan, available national building. Professional journalists are responsible to create a
sense of belonging and to encourage the youth of Pakistan to behave
at http://agrihunt.com/articles/pak-agri-outlook/review-of-climate-change-
policy-of-pakistan/, accessed on 2 Jun 2016
10. National Climate Change policy-2012
like a responsible Pakistani.
O
11. ibid
12. ibid Key Words: Media , PEMRA, Image projection, Social uplift, Cyber
warfare
13. ibid
14. ibid
15.
16.
ibid
National Climate Change Policy-2012
17. http://tribune.com.pk/story/915700/pakistans-glaciers-melting-faster-than- ver the years media has been the
part of every nation’s rise and
rest-of-the-world/ accessed on 3 Jun 2016
18. National Climate Change Policy-2012
19. https://www.scribd.com/doc/31195244/Impact-of-Climate-Change-s-in-
Pakistan, accessed on 2 Jun 2016
fall. In fact media in a country is
20. http://www.newslens.pk/rise-in-sea-level-poses-threat-to-coastal-cities/, the barometer of its character,
accessed on 10 Jun 16
21. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/266838504_The_Impact_Of_Sea_ its vitality and its
22.
Level_Rise_On_Pakistan’s_Coastal_Zones-_In_A_Climate_Change_Scenario
http://www.climateemergencyinstitute.com/uploads/global_warming_and_
values. To the
its_impacts_on_Pakistan.pdf, accessed on 4 Jun 2016 common man, the medium
23. United Nations Development Programme, “Environment and Climate Change,
available at ” http://undp.org.pk/ environment-and-climate-change.html, to provide the interface
24.
25.
Zia Mustafa
Daanish Mustafa, Majeed Akhter, Natalie Nasrallah, Understanding Pakistan’s
with the real world is
Security Nexus, available at https://www.usip.org/sites/default/files/PW88_ media. All over the world,
media is known as the
Understanding-Pakistan’s-Water-Security-Nexus.pdf, accessed on 5 Jun 16
26. Zia Mustafa
27. Saad Iqbal, Global Warming And Climate Change Efftects, Reasons And
Differences, available at http://www.iamcivilengineer.com/2013/11/global-
fourth pillar of State.1
warming-and-climate-change.html, accessed on 2 Jun 2016 It plays an important
role in conveying
28. Zia Mustafa
29. Framework for Implementation of Climate Change Policy (2014-2030),
30.
Government of Pakistan, Climate Change Division, November 2013
National Climate Change Policy-2012
information, forming
31. Peer Muhammad, Karachi could be submerged by 2060, available at http:// opinions, starting
trends and even
www.dawn.com/news/1169339, accessed on 4 Jun 2016
32. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cyclone_Yemyin, accessed on 5 Jun 2016
33. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_Pakistan_heat_wave, accessed on 10 Jun
2016
effecting social
34. Zia Mustafa behaviour. Experts,
35. Nauman Rashid, Climate Change and its impact on Pakistan, available at
https://www.scribd.com/doc/46068888/Climate-change-and-its-impact-on- however, remain
36.
Pakistan accessed on 2 Jun 2016
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fishing_in_Pakistan, accessed on 3 Jun 2016
somewhat
37. National Climate Change Policy-2012 puzzled about
38. Zia Mustafa
39. http://en.dailypakistan.com.pk/headline/live-finance-minister-unveils- the true impact Major Muhammad Iqbal
40.
budget-for-2016-2017/ accessed on 3 Jun 2016
Khaleeq Kiani, Terbela Disilting may be costlier then dam, Dawn, 6 Jan 2013,
of media on The Officer is serving in Pakistan Army
available at http://www.dawn.com/news/776804/tarbela-desilting-to-be- societies
costlier-than-new-dam, accessed on 3 Jun 2016
41. http://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/quotes/b/billgates446494.html?src=t_ and people.
42.
climate_change accessed on 10 Jun 16
http://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/quotes/n/nancypelos410716.html?src=t_
Outwardly it
climate_change, accessed on 10 Jun 16
Green Book 2017 187
 PAKISTAN ARMY PAKISTAN ARMY

source at the time of independence was Radio • ARY Zindagi.

Pakistan. Television came to Pakistan in the city • ATV.
of Lahore on 26 Nov 1964. By 1974 we had colour • Dunya Entertainment.
television. Pakistan Television now reaches • Express Entertainment.
nearly 88% of population. Radio Pakistan and • Filmazia Entertainment.
Pakistan Television are corporate entities under the • Geo Entertainment.
control of government. However, growing number • Geo Kahani.
of independent satellite channels are now flooding • Hope TV.
the television screen.3 Some important channels • Hum TV.
are:- • Islamic
• News channels • ARY Qtv.
• 92 News. • Hadi TV.
• Aaj News. • Haq TV.
• Abb Takk News. • Madani Channel.
• ARY News. • Paigham TV.
• BOL News. • Takbeer TV.
• Dawn News.
• Dunya News. Cyber Media. Although technically it falls within
• Express News. the ambit of electronic media. However, due to
appears that many countries, organisations, people • Role of Media in National Building. This portion • Geo News. the sheer growth, increasing number of users/
and commercial enterprises not only know how includes:- • News One. subscribers and consequent influence thereof, the
to use media to present their viewpoint effectively • Role of media in social and political issues. • Samaa TV. worldwide web of internet has been mentioned as
but can also exploit it to further their aims. Media • Role of media in military issues. • Such TV. a separate entity.
empowers those who employ it as a strategic tool. • Analysis. The analysis will focus on highlighting • Waqt News. Roles
In this world of conflicting ideas, nations strengths and inadequacies of Pakistan’s • General Entertainment • As a watchman, to provide information about
are busy waging a constant war of words. Our media. • Aaj Entertainment. happenings and events by keeping constant
adversary has taken great bounds in acquiring this • Recommendations. • A-Plus Entertainment. watch.
power of media and has been putting it to good use • Conclusion. • ARY Digital.
for her benefits. On the contrary, our media has
been under lot of criticism for its deficiencies to PART- I
meet the challenges of media intensive world. Introduction to Media
Therefore, there is a need to study the existing Definition. It is the medium, by virtue of which
weaknesses in our media management/handling thoughts, feelings, ideas, concepts and information
strategy and recommend measures to overcome are conveyed to the masses. Every medium has a
these deficiencies. formidable force, as they disseminate information
and shape public opinion.
Aim
To analyse to the role of media in nation building Types of Media
and suggest suitable measures to improve media Print Media. Periodicals, magazines, newspapers
management. and other printed material fall in this category. The
first eleven years of Pakistan’s life saw a number
Sequence of political ups and downs. The press was badly
The paper covers salient aspects pertaining to the divided between Lahore and Karachi camps and
role of media both in peace and war. Basing upon could not develop unified organisation.
the facts, relevant analysis has been carried out
and concrete recommendations have been made to Today there are 317 dailies, 217 weeklies, 25
remove the existing shortfalls/inadequacies in our fortnightlies and 165 monthlies published in
media. The sequence is as under:- Urdu, English and the provincial languages.2
• Media and its Management in Pakistan.
This part will establish theoretical framework The government has limited control over both print
of the study to include:- and electronic media. President NDU, Lt Gen Rizwan Akhtar, H.St, HI(M)
Addressing the Audience at “Eighth National Media
• Media at a glance.
Workshop: Empowering Through Enlightenment“ 10 – 21
• Media resources. Electronic Media. It includes television, satellite April 2017
• Media management in Pakistan. channels, cinema and radio. The second media

188 Green Book 2017 Green Book 2017 189

 PAKISTAN ARMY
• As a contributor to decision making process
and provide input necessary for a dialogue
on certain issues.
• As a pressure tool and modifier of pub
opinion, in desired direction, during the
process of decision-making.
• As a catalyst for change, it has the mirror
effect which works through informing all,
thereby motivating them to participate in the
development process.
Media Management in Pakistan
Media Policy4 . The official media policy as laid
down by the Ministry of Information in 1972 has
three major components:-
• National issues need to be presented to the
media and a national consensus forged.
• The government to present its case in the best
possible manner without interfering with the
freedom of press and expression.
190 Green Book 2017
• Lastly the Government’s own specific policies,
news, views and personalities of its leaders
should also be projected.
Associated Press of Pakistan (APP). APP is the
nation’s premier news agency which comprises
highly qualified and professionally competent
journalists. Objective and accurate reporting
remains its hallmark. A contradiction of an APP
story is a rare phenomenon.
Management. Initially it was run through a trust,
but owing to financial problems, it was taken
over by the Government through an Ordinance
called; “Associated Press of Pakistan (taking over)
Ordinance 1961”, on 15th June 1961. However, the
journalists are allowed to retain their independent
status under this ordinance.
Roles
• To gather, report and distribute domestic and
foreign news. Besides economic, financial and
sports reports.
• Project national events.
• Ensure free and efficient flow of reliable news
to the people, electronic media including radio,
TV and newspapers.
• Ensure high journalistic standards.
Pakistan Electronic Media Regulatory Authority
(PEMRA). PEMRA was established on March 01,
2002 through an Ordinance to induct private sector
into the field of electronic media.5
• Outline Organisation
• Tasks. Its mandate is to:-
• Improve the standards of information,
education and entertainment.
• Enlarge the choice available to the people
of Pakistan in the media for news and
all other subjects of public and national
interest.
• Facilitate the devolution of responsibility
and power to grass-roots by improving the
access of the people to mass media at the
local and community level.
• Ensure accountability, transparency
and good governance by optimising the
free flow of information.
• Armed Forces Level
• Inter Services Public Relations
Directorate (ISPR).6 ISPR is a bridge
between Pakistan Armed Forces and
media. As per policy, a proactive role has
been undertaken by this organisation
to ensure that a unified point of view is
communicated to media.
• Functions
• Act as defence forces’ mouth-piece to
the mass media.
• Keep the public informed of the
activities of defence services, their
scope and importance, within the
bounds of security.
• Administer Press censorship and
conduct war correspondents in times
of war.
• Maintain close liaison with official and
private news media and government
information agencies for exchange of
information.
• Arrange visits of media representatives
to Armed Forces’ exercises,
demonstrations, parades and theatres
of operations.
• Highlight nation-building activities of
the Armed Forces.
• Publish pamphlets for distribution
within the country and abroad for
projection of the Armed Forces. In
addition, it also acts as a distribution
agent of government publicity material
among the forces to keep them
informed about national policy.
PAKISTAN ARMY
• With the assistance of Pakistan
Television, Department of Films
and Publications and through own
resources, ISPR makes video film
documentaries and short films on
Armed Forces activities for screening
on TV and in cinemas within the
country and abroad.
PART- II
ROLE OF PAKISTANI MEDIA IN NATION BUILDING
We, in Pakistan, must ponder over the role of
media in bringing about stability in the country
and in making Pakistan a strong and prosperous
country. Generally, media, in Pakistan has
played a positive role in national affairs and
certainly helped in educating the masses about
multifarious problems facing the country. Roles
of our media, in nation building are discussed
below:-
Exposing Corruption. Since the introduction of
private vibrant TV channels, many major corruption
cases and scams have been unveiled by journalists.
Notable among them are7 :-
• National Insurance Company Limited scandal.
• Bribery and corruption in Pakistan International
Airlines which caused losses of $500 million.
• Embezzlement in Pakistan Railways causing
massive financial losses.
Green Book 2017 191
 PAKISTAN ARMY
• Hajj corruption case.
• Rental Power Projects corruption.
• Ephedrine Quota Case, a scandal involving the
son of former Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gillani
to pressurise officials of the Health Ministry
to allocate a quota of controlled chemical
‘Ephedrine’ to two different pharmaceutical
companies.
• Malik Riaz ‘Media Gate’ in which the son of
Chief Justice Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry is
said to have taken money from Malik Riaz to
give favourable decisions from the Supreme
Court.
• Panama paper case has also been highlighted
effectively.
Country’s Image Projection. Media’s role in
shaping public opinions, attitudes and perceptions
is a universally accepted phenomenon. Objectively,
media performs a balanced role at the national,
regional and international levels. What appears
in media, print or visual, is widely accepted by
people as true. Hence its role has to be very careful
in projecting images. The media has to come out
with a powerful role in casting off negative image
192 Green Book 2017
of the country by encouraging the moderates and
quelling the extremists and should project Pakistan
as a moderate Islamic country.
The media should be more proactive in
casting a better light on Pakistan and creating
a positive image of the country abroad. The
national interest should reign supreme while
reporting the issues related to the country’s
profile.
National Confidence. Media has effectively
contributed in inspiring the confidence, will and
determination of nation and its people. It has also
effectively projected the supreme preparedness and
competence of armed forces backed by unflinching
support of the nation.
Morale Building. Our best defence lies in national
motivation. Mass communication can be used in a
defensive/offensive manner. Our media has been
playing a defensive role to ward off our people
against hostile media influence and offensive
role to suitably influence adversaries’ public
opinion and perception.
Social Uplift. The media plays a proactive role in
creating awareness amongst the masses on health,
education, social rights, grant of basic amenities
etc. It is with the opening up of the electronic media
that the scale and scope of the media’s impact
on society has been most profound. Different
educational channels are doing a commendable job
in imparting education to the people; standard of
entertainment has also been improved by virtue of
fierce professional competition amongst different
channels. Being an agent of socio-political,
economic and cultural change in our age, media
can disrupt a society or can stabilise and strengthen
a society.
Extremism. Our religion teaches harmony and
tolerance. But certain elements preach otherwise as
it suites to their interests. It brought a bad name to
the country. The media has a very important role to
play in this regard. Opinion of the masses can be
changed positively with the help of media and it is
underway. Media is educating the people not to
involve in such un-Islamic activities.
Public Opinion. Media can help to bring even
the most hostile of the public opinion in line with
national objectives. Almost any event or social
phenomenon today which is not easily explicable
by other means is casually ascribed to the ‘effects’
with the help of newspapers, video, television and
the cinema.
Economic Prosperity. Media contributes to the
successful adoption of policies aimed at economic
progress. Pakistani media has been playing a
central role in emphasising the need for economic
turn around and different economic reforms
like the increase in the Job quotas of the public
servants in the government, increase in the wages
of a common man in the recent budgets can all in
one or more ways be attributed to the role played
by media in pioneering the needs for such reforms
through various platforms. It is important that the
efforts must be made to project a soft image of
Pakistan abroad through various entertainment
and informative programmes.
1965/1971 Wars
• In 1965 War, media was effectively employed
in raising and maintaining nation’s morale
high. Role of our media in September War
remains a bright example in the history of
Subcontinent.
• In the early stages, media management was not
proactive, but improved later on.
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• In 1971 War, electronic media was still in
developing stage. More individualised efforts
were seen like singing of national songs;
however no coordinated effort as an institution
was undertaken by the media to play its role.
Thus, its use remained confined to domestic
front alone.
• Pakistan even could not secure international
support against naked aggression of India
aimed at breaking the country.
• Reasons of the dormant media activity could
be:-
• Media as a weak institution.
• Lack of expertise to use media as a
diplomatic tool.
• Unimaginative thinking to handle media.
Kargil Conflict. This conflict unearthed many
weak links of our media in general and its
management by government/military in particular.
Leadership remained indecisive when decisiveness
was needed. Notwithstanding the inadequacies
of media the ambiguous government stance also
compromised the credibility of the media. For
example government’s claim that the infiltrators
were freedom fighters and regular Armed Forces of
Pakistan had nothing to do with them.
• Some of the lessons learnt during Kargil
conflict are:-
• Public opinion must be supportive,
which can be built by the media.
• Successful Information/Psychological
Warfare and operational deception in
modern wars inevitably require active
connivance of the media.
• There is a need for reporters to be
educated about the military and the
military about the media.
• Media coverage, if handled correctly,
is a force multiplier. People get their
perception of the military as a dedicated
and professional organisation from media
reports; hence, trust and confidence must
be created.
• The media can be as patriotic as any other
state organisation.
Role of Media in Unconventional Warfare.
Both India and Pakistan have acquired nuclear
capability, which has reduced the chances of going
for an all out war.
Green Book 2017 193
 PAKISTAN ARMY
Fear of escalation of conventional war into
a nuclear war has completely changed the
security environment. The international
concerns over any conflict becoming a flash
point for nuclear war has given way to Low
Intensity conflict.
Kashmir issue remains the flash point, which
is of concern to international community.
Unconventional environment demand extensive
support of own public as well as support of
international community, making role of media
more important. Today our media has improved a
lot and is playing its role to expose the atrocities of
Indians in Kashmir.
• War Against Terror. For the first time in the
history of Pakistan, a well-organised and
efficient media plan was crafted and executed.
Media analysts/correspondents were taken
to actual area of operation and briefing were
organised by Inter Services Public Relations
Directorate. Media played an important role
in projecting the legitimacy for use of force.
However, few weaknesses observed are:-
• Initially, media was not fully geared to mobilise
public opinion in favour of Army’s operation.
Consequently a sizeable populace initially
considered this operation as unjust.
194 Green Book 2017
• In the early stages, media was not proactive,
but improved later on.
PART- III
ANALYSIS
In this portion, focused approach has been made
to identify strengths and shortcomings peculiar to
media management in Pakistan at national and
military levels. These will form the basis to proffer
relevant recommendations aimed at exploiting the
strengths and improving the grey areas:-
Strengths
• Nationalism. Pakistan is a nation with
strong ideological moorings. The nationalist
sentiment, though latent at times, among the
masses, with little revival can once again be
decisive. The overwhelming response by the
nation in the ongoing Operation Zarb-e-Azb
and proactive role played by our media needs
to be correctly acknowledged and maintained.
• Cultural Heritage. Apparently, with the
passage of time we, as a nation, lost the
confidence in our rich cultural heritage. Such
trends are considered not only injurious to
our national character but can also prove
detrimental to our ideological foundations. Our
media is playing a positive role in promoting
the cultural heritage.
• National Harmony. A widespread interest is
discernible in the private sector to have a go
on the new found field of media enterprise.
Of course, it is unthinkable to think of private
venture without profit motive. To maintain
unison harmony, profit considerations should
be acceptable, however the participation
of public sector must be exploited to the
maximum with a view to attain uniformity
in Governement stance on different issues at
national and international level.
• Competitive Spirit. Despite being relatively
young and in formative stage, our media has
displayed great competitive spirit. All that is
required to make a winning combination, well-
directed ambition and a deliberate process of
integration by the authorities.
• Freedom and Liberty. The provision of
initiative by the Musharraf Govrnment in terms
of media liberalisation, independence and
freedom of expression is considered not only
commendable but in due course of time it is
expected to become a strength, which has no
parallels in our past.
• Inadequacies and Weaknesses
• Non Implementation of Media Policy
• The non implementation of media policy at
the government level in true letter and spirit
is probably the major weakness, which is
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responsible for many other shortfalls being
highlighted in succeeding paragraphs.
• Another dimension to this problem is
personality oriented and ad hoc policies,
which has remained a barrier to positive
development of our media and a bad
influence on its credibility.
Lack of Integration and Coordination.
Despite the presence of Media Coordination
Committee, vital aspects to generate full potential
of media like coordination of media with civil and
military representatives, provision of guidance,
threat assessment and formulation of effective and
wholesome response are found lacking.
Role of PEMRA Despite being fresh, either
the organisation seems to have lost focus
or has fallen victim to the all too familiar
incompetence and lack of vision. PEMRA is
lacking in implementing the media policy, hence
private channels are broadcasting material, which
compromise national security and interest.
Lack in Training of Media Personnel. Media
personnel and journalist are not imparted with
coordinated training to ensure media management
in accordance with Natinal Media Policy. False
Green Book 2017 195
 PAKISTAN ARMY PAKISTAN ARMY

reporting as well as coverage against national/state

interest has been observed due to incompetent
journalists.

Lack of Vision and Professionalism.

This observation is applicable to our media
but to a lesser degree to that of Government.
Incompetence, shortsightedness, vested interests,
self-aggrandisement are few terminologies, which
aptly describe the Ministry of Information and its
associated departments.

Effective Use of Cyber Media. The cyber media

also plays an important role and can’t be neglected.
There is a dire need in terms of both aggressive
projection as well as defensive mechanism to
counter the formidable threat in this medium.

Credibility
• To begin with, credibility of the media of
any country is directly dependent on the
credibility of Government and its internal/
external policies.
• Furthermore, in-house contradictions, media
coverage lacking mass appeal and correct
emphasis, paucity of experience, limited
circulation, and delayed response are also
some of the factors negatively affecting the
credibility of our media at present.
PART- IV
Politicisation of Media. The electronic media of RECOMMENDATIONS
Radio and Television in Pakistan are although free
and independent. But are influenced and financed
by different political parties. Thus, the media that
reach the largest parts of the population operate on
the direction of different parties.
Coverage in Rural Areas. Our media is mainly
focused in urban areas. The far flung and backward
areas of country where the media is much needed
are neglected by media.
Media should be more proactive in bringing
the rural population and its problems within
the ambit of National consciences.
There is a dire need to highlight the problems
of rural area like Balochistan, Gilgit Baltistan,
Kashmir and FATA etc.
Security of Jounalists. Media personnel and
journalist remain expose to security risks. They
also receive security threats for telecasting facts
and isssues. Correct reporting and coverage cannot
be ensured without proper security of media
personnel.
After analysing the role of Pakistani media in the
recent past and seeing its effectiveness, following
recommendations are offered to enhance and
improve its role:-
• Implementation of National Media Policy.
It is essential to implement National Media
Policy in true letter and spirit, firmly linked
with national objectives and interests. All
media regulatory authorities should play their
role for implementation of policy without any
diffrences in all media groups.
• Formulation of ‘National Media Integration
Committee’. Formulation of a committee
under the direct supervision of National
Security Council is recommended to monitor
the output of media and gauge its effectiveness
and commitment to profession. A suitable
office comprising competent think tanks
in the form of diplomats, analysts, media
representatives, government officials from
concerned departments and military must
be established. Some envisaged roles are:-
• Provide policy guidelines both during
peace and war to attain the national
objectives and interests under the overall
direction of National Security Council.
• Provide feedback to the ‘decision making
forum’ for improvements at national level.
• Look after the national and public interest
by close monitoring.
• Most importantly, it must ensure
integration of thoughts and actions, in
line with national objectives on a broad
canvas, encompassing military and
civilian institutions in public and private
sectors both at home and abroad.
Vibrant Role of PEMRA. Despite being fresh, either
the organisation seems to have lost focus or has
fallen victim to the all too familiar incompetence
and lack of vision. Before it is too late, it is deemed
important to review and improve its output in
terms of quality management, competent staffing,
efficient mechanism to exercise effective control on
private media aided by necessary legal jurisdiction.
Creation of ‘National Media Education and
Research Academy’. A national academy to
impart/ensure high quality education and promote
research in the field should form an essential part
of National Policy suggested above. To accrue better
dividends, the proposed institution should be
encouraged through a joint venture of Government
and private enterprise. The credibility of the
academy can be ensured through its affiliation with
premiere education institutions such as NUST or
LUMS. Or else, such reputed institutions should
be encouraged to introduce the discipline of media
management.
Promoting Professionalism. Promotion of
professionalism in media circles should be
a priority with the Government. This can be
accomplished by recognising their work through
an Annual Excellence Award. Joint Government-
private scholarships to support journalists for
higher studies and specialisations on a particular
subject should also be considered.
Focus on Cyber Media
• Ministry of Information should focus and
promote launching of more web sites, which
project Pakistan’s point of view on current
issues (both domestic/international) in the
world.
• Cyber warfare, to include offensive, defensive
and supportive operations, should form
a mandatory part of information warfare
objectives and doctrine at all tiers and
departments of the government.

196 Green Book 2017 Green Book 2017 197

 PAKISTAN ARMY
• The assistance of various universities running
computer sciences disciplines be sought to
encourage students for preparation of quality
websites/ideas mandatory for the award of a
degree.
• A regulatory authority at national level is also
considered essential to ensure control and
coordination of web masters. Alternatively,
a dedicated wing at PEMRA can also be
considered in this regard.
Credibility at Home and Abroad. Credible
propagation is the projection of a state’s long-
term strategic interest, which reflects national
consensus. Responsible media projects and
promotes this national consensus. Liberty to
media is a step in the right direction. A lot has been
achieved by the private media as far as domestic
audience is concerned. However, at the international
level, much more is needed to be done. Following
should be considered in this regard:-
• The credibility of the government itself directly
reflects upon the credibility of the media
abroad.
• Constructive criticism of Government policies
reinforces media’s credibility.
• De-politicisation of state owned media is a pre-
requisite.
• A balanced approach towards censorship and
allowing maximum access to media can afford
greater credibility.
• Enhanced engagement of foreign media and
need for lobbying, as discussed above, remains
a key feature.
De-politicisation. Independence of media implies
freedom of expression therefore, state-owned
and private media must remain free from political
intimidation for petty interests. De-politicisation
of media must be ensured to keep it neutral and
enhance its credibilty.
Effective Coverage in Rural Areas. Media should
reach in far flung areas of country to highlight the
issues in these areas. Major media groups like ARY,
Geo, Dunya etc. should ensure presence of their
offices in backward areas of Balochistan, Kashmir,
Gilgit-Baltistan and FATA and effective coverage of
problems faced by these people.
Provision of Security to Jounalists. Media
personnel and journalists should be provided
with effective security to assist correct and timely
reporting of events. Today media is exposing
corruption and evils of society.
198 Green Book 2017
All media channels should ensure hiring of
security personnel for provision of security to
their representatives.
Enhanced Interaction with Foreign Media.
Importance of a healthy rapport and strong lobby
with International media must never be neglected
and joint ventures should be initiated. International
media should be facilitated to project good image
of Pakistan. International media could be hired to
deliver/promote our campaign whenever required.
Concurrently, negative foreign media must not go
unchecked.
Enhancement in Technological Self Reliance.
We should reduce our dependence on developed
world and claim a fresh, more just and equitable
order in the field of communications and
Information Technology.
Conclusion
The adventure of modern technologies has
enhanced the media capabilities manifold.
The ardent role that media is playing today
cannot be negated; No doubt the media has
given a new dimension to the warfare. In
this contemporary era the battles are won by
media rather than the conventional armies
and in the future to come the role of media
going to be manifold.
It is of paramount importance to keep pace with the
changing environments of information technology
to meet the challenges of new millennium.
NOTES
1. http:/www.site.google.com/site/fouthpillar.
2.
3.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Media of Pakistan.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List of television channels in Pakistan.
4. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Media of Pakistan.
5. http://58.65.182.183/pemra/pemgov/wp-ntent/uploads/2015/08/PEMRA Rules
09.
6.
7.
https://www.ispr.gov.pk.
“Pakistani media’s fight against corruption: A Case Study for Afghan Media”,
Mokhtar Wafayi and Haris Bin Aziz, The Express Tribune, 23 July 2012
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• http:/www.site.google.com/site/fouthpillar.
•
•
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Media of Pakistan.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_television_channels_in_Pakistan.
• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Media_of_Pakistan.
• http://58.65.182.183/pemra/pemgov/wp-ntent/uploads/2015/08/PEMRA_
Rules_09.
•
•
https://www.ispr.gov.pk.
“Pakistani media’s fight against corruption: A Case Study for Afghan Media”,
Mokhtar Wafayi and Haris Bin Aziz, The Express Tribune, 23 July 2012
• “Media in Pakistan: Between radicalisation and democratisation in an
unfolding conflict”, International Media Support, July 2009, 56 pages.
•
•
Freedom of The Press 2014 - Pakistan. Freedom House.
“Pakistan Impunity Campaign”. IFJ. Archived from the original on 20 January
2015.
• “Journalists in danger”, Reporters Without Borders, 30 October 2012.
 “Nothing beats a Soldier’s smile”
Pakistan Army Soldiers having a light moment
after a successfully executed mission