Dawn Wright:

Mean square error (MSE) is probably the

Dawn Wright:
The mean absolute deviation (MAD) is
the sum of absolute differences
between the actual value and the
forecast divided by the number of
observations.
most commonly used error metric. It
penalizes larger errors because squaring
larger numbers has a greater impact than
squaring smaller numbers. The MSE is the
sum of the squared errors divided by the
number of observations.

Absolute
Value of Absolute Values of Errors
Period Actual Forecast Error Error Square of Error Divided by Actual Values.
t At Ft At -Ft | At -Ft| ( At -Ft)^2 | (At -Ft)/At|
1 27.580 27.580 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000
2 25.950 26.765 -0.815 0.815 0.664 0.0314
3 26.080 26.015 0.065 0.065 0.004 0.0025
4 26.360 26.220 0.140 0.140 0.020 0.0053
5 27.990 27.175 0.815 0.815 0.664 0.0291
6 29.610 28.800 0.810 0.810 0.656 0.0274
7 28.850 29.230 -0.380 0.380 0.144 0.0132
8 29.430 29.140 0.290 0.290 0.084 0.0099
9 29.670 29.550 0.120 0.120 0.014 0.0040
10 30.190 29.930 0.260 0.260 0.068 0.0086

Totals 1.305 3.695 2.319 0.131

n 10
MAD 0.370
MSE 0.232
RMSE 0.482
MAPE 1.31
Dawn Wright: Dawn Wright:
the root mean square Mean Absolute Percentage
error (RMSE) is the Error (MAPE) is the average of
square root of the MSE. absolute errors divided by
actual observation values.