Data has been taken from www.Statista.

com
Travel, Tourism & Hospitality›
Food & Drink Services

Year Period (t) Revenue (billions) Forecast Forecast error Sq FE error

2012 1 17 18.9555556 -1.96 3.82
2013 2 18 19.3555556 -1.36 1.84
2014 3 19 19.7555556 -0.76 0.57
2015 4 21 20.1555556 0.84 0.71
2016 5 23 20.5555556 2.44 5.98
2017 6 23 20.9555556 2.04 4.18
2018 7 24 21.3555556 2.64 6.99
2019 8 26 21.7555556 4.24 18.02
2020 9 14 22.1555556 -8.16 66.51
MSE 12.07

Create a short video to do the following

Explain how forecasting is used in the real world. 
Provide a specific example from your own line of work or from a line of work that
Illustrate an example using at least 2 different quantitative forecasting methods u
Evaluate which of the methods you demonstrated would be the best forecasting
Additionally, by the end of the week, post at least one response to one of your p

My notes:
In the indutry of travel, tourism and hospitality, forecasting is used to predict revenue of food and drinking s
Using the coeficcients for intercept and period (t) coefficients, I am forecasting the values to get the MSE.
In the data that we gatherd from the travel and tourism hospitality indutry in the year 2020 we found an outlier valu

Year period Y X Forecast

2021 10 18.5555555555556 0.4 22.555555556
Using the Coefficients for the intercet and the period (t) I am estimating that in 2021 the revenue for the trvel and to

alpha 0.2
Period (t) Revenue (bill Forecast Forecast error Sq FE error Percentage error
 1 17
2 18 17 1.00 1.00 5.56%
3 19 17.2 1.80 3.24 9.47%
4 21 17.56 3.44 11.83 16.38%
5 23 18.25 4.75 22.58 20.66%
6 23 19.20 3.80 14.45 16.53%
7 24 19.96 4.04 16.33 16.84%
8 26 20.77 5.23 27.38 20.13%
9 14 21.81 -7.81 61.05 55.81%
MSE 19.73 20.17%

Being that a lower MSE is always better for forecasting, with the alph of 0.2 I noticed that the MSE is greater than th
 Revenue 2012-2020
30

25

20 f(x) = 0.4 x + 18.5555555555556

R² = 0.081203007518797

Percentage error 15
11.50%
7.53% 10

3.98%
5
4.02%
10.63% 0
8.89% 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

11.02%
16.32%
58.25%
14.68% MAPE

m a line of work that you find interesting.

ecasting methods using MS excel
he best forecasting approach based on the MAPE measure of forecast accuracy.  
se to one of your peers’ posting. Try to select a post that has not yet received replies.

ue of food and drinking services. With the forecast value we can adjust our expenses to make more profit.
to get the MSE.
20 we found an outlier value due to the pandemic.

revenue for the trvel and tourism indutry will be 22.56 billions
 MAPE

the MSE is greater than the first foreacast method, making the first method the better choice.
 2012-2020

5 6 7 8 9 10

SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.28496141
R Square 0.08120301
Adjusted R S -0.05005371
st accuracy.   Standard Erro 3.93922078
received replies. Observations 9

ANOVA
ke more profit. df SS MS
Regression 1 9.6 9.6
Residual 7 108.622222 15.5174603
Total 8 118.222222

CoefficientsStandard Error t Stat

Intercept 18.5555556 2.86177755 6.4839266
Period (t) 0.4 0.50855122 0.78654812
RESIDUAL OUTPUT

Observation
Predicted Revenue (billions)
Residuals
1 18.9555556 -1.95555556
2 19.3555556 -1.35555556
3 19.7555556 -0.75555556
4 20.1555556 0.84444444
5 20.5555556 2.44444444
6 20.9555556 2.04444444
7 21.3555556 2.64444444
8 21.7555556 4.24444444
9 22.1555556 -8.15555556
 F Significance F
0.61865794 0.45734312

P-value Lower 95% Upper 95% Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0%

0.00033923 11.788527 25.3225841 11.788527 25.3225841
0.45734312 -0.80253254 1.60253254 -0.80253254 1.60253254