SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.262506
R Square 0.06891
Adjusted R-0.024199
Standard E 1.909487
Observatio 12

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 1 2.698495 2.698495 0.740096 0.409781
Residual 10 36.46142 3.646142
Total 11 39.15992

Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%
Lower 95.0%
Upper 95.0%
Intercept 278.3539 321.9939 0.86447 0.407588 -439.0932 995.801 -439.0932 995.801
Year -0.13737 0.159679 -0.860288 0.409781 -0.493158 0.218418 -0.493158 0.218418
SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.277198
R Square 0.076839
Adjusted R-0.128308
Standard E 2.004188
Observatio 12

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 2 3.009009 1.504504 0.374556 0.697828
Residual 9 36.15091 4.016768
Total 11 39.15992

Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat
Intercept 200.6439 438.5622 0.457504
Year -0.099357 0.216292 -0.459363
Unemploym0.238655 0.858358 0.278037
P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0%
Upper 95.0%
0.658153 -791.4528 1192.741 -791.4528 1192.741
0.656867 -0.588643 0.38993 -0.588643 0.38993
0.787266 -1.703086 2.180395 -1.703086 2.180395
 Germany
period Year Unemployment GDP
Rate Growth (Percent)
1 2011 5.82 3.93
2 2012 5.38 0.42
3 2013 5.23 0.44
4 2014 4.98 2.21
5 2015 4.62 1.49
6 2016 4.12 2.23
7 2017 3.75 2.68
8 2018 3.38 0.98
9 2019 3.14 1.06
10 2020 3.81 -3.70
11 2021 3.535 2.63
12 2022 5.30 1.80
 Mean
GDP Absolute
period Year Forecast Absolute Squared Error
Growth (%) Percentage error
Error
1 2011 3.93
2 2012 0.42 3.93 3.5067 12.29694489 838%
3 2013 0.44 0.42 0.0191 0.00036481 4%
4 2014 2.21 0.44 1.7719 3.13962961 80%
5 2015 1.49 2.21 0.7176 0.51494976 48%
6 2016 2.23 1.49 0.7381 0.54479161 33%
7 2017 2.68 2.23 0.4502 0.20268004 17%
8 2018 0.98 2.68 1.699 2.886601 173%
9 2019 1.06 0.98 0.0754 0.00568516 7%
10 2020 -3.70 1.06 4.7534 22.59481156 -129%
11 2021 2.63 -3.70 6.3238 39.99044644 241%
12 2022 1.80 2.63 0.827 0.683929 46%
13 2023 1.80
Mean Absolute Error 1.898382
Root Mean Square Error 2.744595
Mean Absolute Percentage Error 1.235322
Trend Model (Fit a line to the time series data)

Squared Percent
period Year GDP Growth (%) forecast error ABS(error) Error Error F
1 2011 3.93 2.10 1.82 1.82 3.32 0.46
2 2012 0.42 1.96 -1.55 1.55 2.39 3.70 5.00
3 2013 0.44 1.83 -1.39 1.39 1.93 3.18
4 2014 2.21 1.69 0.52 0.52 0.27 0.24

Sales
5 2015 1.49 1.55 -0.06 0.06 0.00 0.04 0.00
6 2016 2.23 1.42 0.81 0.81 0.66 0.37 1 2 3
7 2017 2.68 1.28 1.40 1.40 1.97 0.52
8 2018 0.98 1.14 -0.16 0.16 0.03 0.16 -5.00
9 2019 1.06 1.00 0.05 0.05 0.00 0.05
10 2020 -3.70 0.87 -4.56 4.56 20.82 -1.23
11 2021 2.63 0.73 1.90 1.90 3.60 0.72
12 2022 1.80 0.59 1.21 1.21 1.46 0.67
13 2023 0.45 0.00 1.29 3.04 0.74
… BIAS MAD MSE MAPE
13 2023 0.45

Method 1: Use Excel's function

Intercept 2.239648
Slope -0.13737

Method 2: Use Chart Trendline

5.00
4.00
3.00
2.00
f(x) = − 0.13737027972028 x + 2.23964848484848
1.00
Sales

0.00
-1.00 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14
-2.00
-3.00
-4.00
-5.00

Time

Method 3: Use Excel's Data Analysis | Regression tool

Question: What are the forecasts for next January, Febary, and April?
 Forecast vs. Actual

5.00

GDP
Sales

0.00 Growth
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 1 1 (%)
0 1 2
-5.00

Time
Moving Average Model

Simple MA models 3 - Period Moving Average

3-month
MA Percent
period Year GDP Growth (%) forecast error ABS(error) MSE Error
1 2011 3.93 - - -
2 2012 0.42 - - -
3 2013 0.44 - - -
4 2014 2.21 1.59 0.62 0.62 0.38 0.28
5 2015 1.49 1.02 0.47 0.47 0.22 0.32
6 2016 2.23 1.38 0.85 0.85 0.72 0.38
7 2017 2.68 1.98 0.70 0.70 0.49 0.26
8 2018 0.98 2.13 -1.15 1.15 1.33 1.17
9 2019 1.06 1.96 -0.91 0.91 0.82 0.86
10 2020 -3.70 1.57 -5.27 5.27 27.77 -1.43
11 2021 2.63 -0.55 3.18 3.18 10.11 1.21
12 2022 1.80 0.00 1.80 1.80 3.26 1.00
13 2023 0.24
0.03 1.66 5.01 0.45
13 2023 0.24 BIAS MAD MSE MAPE

Question: What is the forecast for next January?

(2) Weighted MA model

Weights
w1 = 0.5000
w2 = 0.3333
w3 = 0.1667
3-month
WMA Percent
period month Steel_Sales_1991 forecast error ABS(error) Squared Error Error
1 Jan 6786 - - - - -
2 Feb 6039 - - - - -
3 Mar 5966 - - - - -
4 Apr 6450 6127.00 323.00 323.00 104329.00 0.05
5 May 6762 6220.17 541.83 541.83 293583.36 0.08
6 June 6623 6525.33 97.67 97.67 9538.78 0.01
7 July 6420 6640.50 -220.50 220.50 48620.25 0.03
8 Aug 6954 6544.67 409.33 409.33 167553.78 0.06
9 Sep 6747 6720.83 26.17 26.17 684.69 0.00
10 Oct 7499 6761.50 737.50 737.50 543906.25 0.10
11 Nov 6427 7157.50 -730.50 730.50 533630.25 0.11
12 Dec 6118 6837.67 -719.67 719.67 517920.11 0.12
51.65 422.91 246640.72 0.06
BIAS MAD MSE MAPE
Question: What is the forecast for next January?
4-month
MA
forecast error ABS(error) MSE
- - -
- - -
- - -
- - -
1.7 -0.3 0.3 0.1 0.17
1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 0.49
1.6 1.1 1.1 1.2 0.41
2.2 -1.2 1.2 1.4 1.19
1.8 -0.8 0.8 0.6 0.75
1.7 -5.4 5.4 29.5 -1.47
0.3 2.4 2.4 5.6 0.90
0.2 1.6 1.6 2.4 0.87

-0.19 1.72 5.25 0.41

BIAS MAD MSE MAPE
Simple Exponential Smoothing

Alpha = 0.25
Squared Percent
period Year GDP Growth (%) forecast error ABS(error) Error Error
1 2011 3.93 3.93 - - - -
2 2012 0.42 3.93 -3.51 3.51 12.30 8.38
3 2013 0.44 3.05 -2.61 2.61 6.82 5.97
4 2014 2.21 2.40 -0.19 0.19 0.03 0.08
5 2015 1.49 2.35 -0.86 0.86 0.73 0.57
6 2016 2.23 2.13 0.10 0.10 0.01 0.04
7 2017 2.68 2.16 0.52 0.52 0.27 0.19
8 2018 0.98 2.29 -1.31 1.31 1.71 1.33
9 2019 1.06 1.96 -0.91 0.91 0.82 0.86
10 2020 -3.70 1.74 -5.43 5.43 29.51 -1.47
11 2021 2.63 0.38 2.25 2.25 5.06 0.86
12 2022 1.80 0.94 0.86 0.86 0.74 0.48
13 2023 1.15 -1.01 1.68 5.27 1.57
BIAS MAD MSE MAPE
13 2023 1.15
Alpha = 0.5 Forecast vs. Actual
Squared Percent
forecast error ABS(error) Error Error
3.93 - - - - 5.00
3.93 -3.51 3.51 12.30 8.38 4.00
2.17 -1.73 1.73 3.01 3.96 3.00
1.30 0.90 0.90 0.82 0.41 2.00
1.76 -0.27 0.27 0.07 0.18 1.00

Sales
1.62 0.61 0.61 0.37 0.27 0.00
1.93 0.75 0.75 0.57 0.28
-1.00 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
2.30 -1.32 1.32 1.75 1.35
1.64 -0.59 0.59 0.34 0.55 -2.00
1.35 -5.05 5.05 25.47 -1.37 -3.00
-1.17 3.80 3.80 14.44 1.45 -4.00
0.73 1.07 1.07 1.15 0.60 -5.00
-0.48 1.78 5.48 1.46
BIAS MAD MSE MAPE
Time
Forecast vs. Actual

GDP Growth (%)

Fcst (alpha=0.3)
6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Fcst (alpha=0.5)

Time
Holt's Model

alpha = 0.50
gamma 0.30
Squared
period Year GDP Growth (%) level trend forecast error ABS(error) Error
1 2011 3.93 3.9252 0 - - - -
2 2012 0.42 3.9252 0 3.93 -3.51 3.51 12.30
3 2013 0.44 2.17 -0.53 1.65 -1.21 1.21 1.46
4 2014 2.21 1.04 -0.71 0.33 1.88 1.88 3.52
5 2015 1.49 1.27 -0.43 0.85 0.65 0.65 0.42
6 2016 2.23 1.17 -0.33 0.84 1.39 1.39 1.93
7 2017 2.68 1.53 -0.12 1.41 1.27 1.27 1.60
8 2018 0.98 2.05 0.07 2.12 -1.14 1.14 1.29
9 2019 1.06 1.55 -0.10 1.45 -0.39 0.39 0.15
10 2020 -3.70 1.25 -0.16 1.09 -4.79 4.79 22.94
11 2021 2.63 -1.30 -0.88 -2.18 4.81 4.81 23.11
12 2022 1.80 0.22 -0.16 0.07 1.73 1.73 3.01
0.06 2.07 6.52
BIAS MAD MSE
Percent Forecast vs. Actual
Error
-
5.00
8.38 4.00
2.76 3.00
0.85 2.00
0.43 1.00 GDP
Sales

0.62 0.00 Growth

0.47 -1.00 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 (%)
1.16 -2.00
-3.00
0.37
-4.00
-1.30 -5.00
1.83
0.96
1.50 Time
MAPE
Model Comparison and Selection

Models BIAS MAD MSE MAPE

Moving Avg 21.06 32.81 1804.07 0.08
Exponential Smoothing 28.25 33.69 1816.06 0.08
Trend 0.00 18.69 672.92 0.04
Holt's 8.61 23.09 1417.21 0.05