28.05.

2020

PERT Question PERT

n Draw a network diagram for the following n PERT stands for Program Evaluation and
activities, do the necessary calculations, Review Technique
show the critical path, identify the critical
activities and calculate the completion
time of project with 50% probability?

1 2

PERT Ques. CPM Network

ES EF
f, 1
LS LF 3 5
9 10
2
b, 20 21
2

21
21
0

9
9
9 e,

g, 6
1 7 6

c, 5

15
15
9

4
4
a, 4 9 15
0 15
4 d, 4
0 2
4 4
4 8
11 15

3 4

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 28.05.2020

CPM Network PERT

f, 1
n PERT stands for Program Evaluation and Review
5
3
9 10
Technique
2 n PERT is mostly used in Research and
b, 20 21
2

21
21
0 Development projects and in projects where we

9
9
9 e,

g, 6
1 7 6 have a lot of uncertainties.
c, 5

15
15
9

4
4
a, 4 9 15
0 15
4 d, 4
2
0
4 4 4
8
11 15

5 6

PERT PERT Optimistic Time Estimate:

n Uncertainties § ta = optimistic time
estimate
n te= expected time = § tm = most likely time
estimate
§ tb= pessimistic time
estimate
n ta = optimistic time estimate
n tm = most likely time estimate
n tb= pessimistic time estimate
If everything goes OK, you can complete
in 5 days.
Pessimistic Time Estimate:
If problems occur, the work may extend to
9 days.
If you cannot decrease the
variation of your
estimations,that means
uncertainties exist

ta tm tb
5 7 9

7 8

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 28.05.2020

PERT PERT
n How can we find standard deviation for any activity? n What is the probability of completion of the Network
Question within 24 days and 26 days?
n You have Z Table.

Z: The number of standard

deviations of a normal
n What is the probability of completion of the Network
distribution (the standard
Question within 24 days and 26 days?
normal deviate)
n Remember completion of project within 21 days was of 50%
probability. D: The desired project
completion time

9 10

PERT
Z: The number of standard deviations of a
normal distribution (the standard normal
deviate)
D: The desired project completion time
PERT
§ 3s approach to probabilistic estimates
§ in PM we use 3s
§ in aerospace engineering, they use 6 s

µ: The critical time of the project, the sum of 3 s 3 s 3s : 6s :

the tes for activities on the critical path
out of 1000 trials, out of 1000 000
sµ2 : The variance of the critical path, the sum 1 2
3 3
2
1 there are 2 errors: trials,
of the variances of activities on the critical
there are 2 errors:
path ta tm tb 0.998
5 7 9 0.999998

11 12

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 28.05.2020

PERT PERT Ques.

§ Decrease the variance, increase the
speed, speed to market ta tm tb
1 4 7
21 2 2
2 5 8
Decrease the 3 4 5
variance 4 6 8
0 0 6
3 6 9
ta tm tb FIRSTLY, Calculate Expected Activity Times and Activity Variances.
5 7 9

13 14

PERT CPM Network (Chp 8, p.402, Solved Problem)

n te= expected time = ES EF
f, 1
LS LF 3 5
9 10
§ te for Activity A is 4.
2
b, 20 21
§ te for Activity B is 2. 2

21
21
0

9
9
9 e,
§ te for Activity C is 5.

g, 6
1 7 6

c, 5

15
15
9

4
4
§ te for Activity D is 4. a, 4 9 15
0 15
§ te for Activity E is 6. 4
2
d, 4
0
4 4
§ te for Activity F is 1. 4 8
§ te for Activity G is 6. 11 15

15 16

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 28.05.2020

CPM Network (Chp 8, p.402, Solved Problem) PERT

f, 1
n Question 1) What is the probability of the
5
3
9 10
completion of the project in 23 days?
2
b, 20 21
2

21
21
0 n Question 2) What is the completion time

9
9
9 e,

g, 6
1 7 6

c, 5
corresponding to 95% probability?

15
15
9

4
4
a, 4 9 15
0 15
4 d, 4
2
0
4 4 4
8
11 15

17 18

PERT
Calculations PERT
n Calculate s2 for each Activity. n Question 1) What isthe probability of the
completion of the project in 23 days?
s2 for Activity A is 1, s2 for Activity E is 0.44,
s2 for Activity B is 0, s2 for Activity F is 1,
s2 for Activity C is 1, s2 for Activity G is 1.
Z=1.078 P = 85.9%
s 2
for Activity D is 0.11,
Check Z table for probability value.

19 20

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PERT PERT
n Question 1) What isthe probability of the n Question 2) What is the completion time
completion of the project in 23 days? corresponding to 95% probability?

P = 85.9% 14.1% risk I am taking P = 95% Z=1.65

T= 24.06 24 days

21 22

CPM Network PERT

f, 1
n You can complete this project in 24 days with
5
3
9 10
95% probability.
2 n You can complete this project in 23 days with
b, 20 21
2
21
21

0 86% probability.
9
9

9 e,
g, 6

1 7 6
c, 5

n You can complete this project in 21 days with

15
15

9
4
4

a, 4 15
9
15
50% probability.
0 4 d, 4
2 n This is how you report your manager about the
0
4 4 4
8 completion times of the project.
11 15

23 24

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 28.05.2020

PERT
n If there are more than 1 critical path, you do
separate calculations for each path and take
the one with the lower probability into
consideration.
n This is how you report your manager about the
completion times of the project.

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