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1 Introduction
More than 100 years ago, H. G. Wells, an English author and historian, suggested
that one day quantitative reasoning will be as necessary for effective citizenship as
the ability to read. He made no mention of business because the Industrial Revolution
was just beginning. Mr. Wells could not have been more correct. While “business
experience,” some “thoughtful guesswork,” and “intuition” are key
attributes of successful managers, today’s business problems tend to
be too complex for this type of decision making alone.
One of the tools used to make decisions is statistics. Statistics is
used not only by businesspeople; we all also apply statistical concepts
in our lives. For example, to start the day you turn on the shower and
let it run for a few moments. Then you put your hand in the shower to
sample the temperature and decide to add more hot water or more cold
water, or determine that the temperature is just right and then enter the
shower. As a second example, suppose you are at Costco Wholesale
and wish to buy a frozen pizza. One of the pizza makers has a stand,
and they offer a small wedge of their pizza. After sampling the pizza, you
decide whether to purchase the pizza or not. In both the shower and pizza examples,
you make a decision and select a course of action based on a sample.
Businesses face similar situations. The Kellogg Company must ensure that the
mean amount of Raisin Bran in the 25.5-gram box meets label specifications. To do
so, it sets a “target” weight somewhat higher than the amount specified on the label.
Each box is then weighed after it is filled. The weighing machine reports a distribution
of the content weights for each hour as well as the number “kicked-out” for
being under the label specification during the hour. The Quality Inspection Department
also randomly selects samples from the production line and checks the quality
of the product and the weight of the contents of the box. If the mean product
weight differs significantly from the target weight or the percent of kick-outs is too
large, the process is adjusted.
As a student of business or economics, you will need basic knowledge and
skills to organize, analyze, and transform data and to present the information. In this
text, we will show you basic statistical techniques and methods that will develop
your ability to make good personal and business decisions