Date Closing Price Closing Price_High Closing Price_NewRun Binary Run Count

4/2/2017 1040 1 1 1 1
4/3/2017 1030 1 0 1 1
4/4/2017 1009 1 0 1 1
4/6/2017 1000 1 0 1 1
4/9/2017 1005 1 0 1 1
4/10/2017 1020 1 0 1 1
4/11/2017 1040 1 0 1 1
4/12/2017 1020 1 0 1 1
4/13/2017 1018 1 0 1 1
4/16/2017 1000 1 0 1 1
4/18/2017 990 1 0 1 1
4/19/2017 980 1 0 1 1
4/20/2017 1005 1 0 1 1
4/23/2017 1011 1 0 1 1
4/24/2017 1000 1 0 1 1
4/25/2017 985 1 0 1 1
4/26/2017 990 1 0 1 1
4/27/2017 976 1 0 1 1
4/30/2017 974 1 0 1 1
5/2/2017 990 1 0 1 1
5/3/2017 990 1 0 1 1
5/4/2017 975 1 0 1 1
5/7/2017 952 1 0 1 1
5/8/2017 988 1 0 1 1
5/9/2017 975 1 0 1 1
5/11/2017 961 1 0 1 1
5/15/2017 970 1 0 1 1
5/16/2017 951 1 0 1 1
5/17/2017 960 1 0 1 1
5/18/2017 960 1 0 1 1
5/21/2017 960 1 0 1 1
5/22/2017 940 1 0 1 1
5/23/2017 960 1 0 1 1
5/24/2017 950 1 0 1 1
5/28/2017 938 1 0 1 1
5/30/2017 925 1 0 1 1
5/31/2017 926 1 0 1 1
6/1/2017 926 1 0 1 1
6/4/2017 925 1 0 1 1
6/5/2017 925 1 0 1 1
6/6/2017 948 1 0 1 1
6/7/2017 940 1 0 1 1
6/8/2017 928 1 0 1 1
6/11/2017 910 1 0 1 1
6/12/2017 910 1 0 1 1
6/13/2017 906 1 0 1 1
6/14/2017 907 1 0 1 1
6/15/2017 920 1 0 1 1
6/18/2017 910 1 0 1 1
6/19/2017 895 1 0 1 1
6/20/2017 878 1 0 1 1
6/21/2017 870 1 0 1 1
6/22/2017 886 1 0 1 1
6/25/2017 883 1 0 1 1
6/27/2017 886 1 0 1 1
6/28/2017 890 1 0 1 1
7/2/2017 870 1 0 1 1
7/3/2017 885 1 0 1 1
7/4/2017 881 1 0 1 1
7/5/2017 888 1 0 1 1
7/6/2017 900 1 0 1 1
7/9/2017 900 1 0 1 1
7/10/2017 893 1 0 1 1
7/11/2017 900 1 0 1 1
7/12/2017 904 1 0 1 1
7/13/2017 886 1 0 1 1
7/16/2017 890 1 0 1 1
7/17/2017 905 1 0 1 1
7/18/2017 924 1 0 1 1
7/19/2017 912 1 0 1 1
7/20/2017 907 1 0 1 1
7/23/2017 913 1 0 1 1
7/24/2017 910 1 0 1 1
7/25/2017 900 1 0 1 1
7/26/2017 903 1 0 1 1
7/27/2017 913 1 0 1 1
7/30/2017 910 1 0 1 1
7/31/2017 914 1 0 1 1
8/1/2017 909 1 0 1 1
8/2/2017 905 1 0 1 1
8/3/2017 905 1 0 1 1
8/6/2017 911 1 0 1 1
8/7/2017 915 1 0 1 1
8/9/2017 914 1 0 1 1
8/10/2017 915 1 0 1 1
8/13/2017 906 1 0 1 1
8/15/2017 906 1 0 1 1
8/16/2017 915 1 0 1 1
8/17/2017 925 1 0 1 1
 8/20/2017 902 1 0 1 1
8/21/2017 910 1 0 1 1
8/22/2017 901 1 0 1 1
8/23/2017 904 1 0 1 1
8/24/2017 898 1 0 1 1
8/27/2017 905 1 0 1 1
8/28/2017 900 1 0 1 1
8/30/2017 892 1 0 1 1
8/31/2017 885 1 0 1 1
9/4/2017 864 1 0 1 1
9/6/2017 880 1 0 1 1
9/7/2017 875 1 0 1 1
9/10/2017 850 1 0 1 1
9/11/2017 853 1 0 1 1
9/12/2017 835 0 1 0 2
9/13/2017 820 0 0 0 2
9/14/2017 855 1 1 1 3
9/17/2017 890 1 0 1 3
9/18/2017 883 1 0 1 3
9/20/2017 890 1 0 1 3
9/24/2017 890 1 0 1 3
9/25/2017 896 1 0 1 3
9/26/2017 891 1 0 1 3
10/3/2017 898 1 0 1 3
10/4/2017 895 1 0 1 3
10/8/2017 855 1 0 1 3
10/9/2017 855 1 0 1 3
10/10/2017 860 1 0 1 3
10/11/2017 857 1 0 1 3
10/12/2017 855 1 0 1 3
10/15/2017 865 1 0 1 3
10/16/2017 880 1 0 1 3
10/17/2017 893 1 0 1 3
10/18/2017 886 1 0 1 3
10/22/2017 890 1 0 1 3
10/23/2017 890 1 0 1 3
10/24/2017 871 1 0 1 3
10/25/2017 867 1 0 1 3
10/29/2017 865 1 0 1 3
10/30/2017 860 1 0 1 3
10/31/2017 857 1 0 1 3
11/1/2017 884 1 0 1 3
11/2/2017 868 1 0 1 3
11/5/2017 845 0 1 0 4
11/6/2017 850 1 1 1 5
 11/7/2017 850 1 0 1 5
11/8/2017 840 0 1 0 6
11/9/2017 836 0 0 0 6
11/12/2017 848 1 1 1 7
11/13/2017 849 1 0 1 7
11/14/2017 870 1 0 1 7
11/15/2017 860 1 0 1 7
11/16/2017 850 1 0 1 7
11/19/2017 847 1 0 1 7
11/20/2017 836 0 1 0 8
11/21/2017 837 0 0 0 8
11/22/2017 840 0 0 0 8
11/23/2017 850 1 1 1 9
11/26/2017 863 1 0 1 9
11/27/2017 866 1 0 1 9
11/28/2017 870 1 0 1 9
11/29/2017 883 1 0 1 9
11/30/2017 880 1 0 1 9
12/4/2017 878 1 0 1 9
12/5/2017 871 1 0 1 9
12/6/2017 873 1 0 1 9
12/10/2017 862 1 0 1 9
12/11/2017 862 1 0 1 9
12/12/2017 850 1 0 1 9
12/13/2017 844 0 1 0 10
12/14/2017 840 0 0 0 10
12/17/2017 835 0 0 0 10
12/18/2017 840 0 0 0 10
12/19/2017 838 0 0 0 10
12/20/2017 839 0 0 0 10
12/21/2017 844 0 0 0 10
12/24/2017 839 0 0 0 10
12/26/2017 649 0 0 0 10
12/27/2017 630 0 0 0 10
12/28/2017 608 0 0 0 10
12/31/2017 590 0 0 0 10
1/1/2018 636 0 0 0 10
1/2/2018 650 0 0 0 10
1/3/2018 648 0 0 0 10
1/4/2018 644 0 0 0 10
1/7/2018 652 0 0 0 10
1/8/2018 651 0 0 0 10
1/9/2018 660 0 0 0 10
1/10/2018 663 0 0 0 10
1/14/2018 660 0 0 0 10
1/16/2018 659 0 0 0 10
1/17/2018 653 0 0 0 10
1/21/2018 651 0 0 0 10
1/22/2018 656 0 0 0 10
1/23/2018 658 0 0 0 10
1/24/2018 658 0 0 0 10
1/25/2018 656 0 0 0 10
1/28/2018 657 0 0 0 10
1/29/2018 661 0 0 0 10
1/31/2018 660 0 0 0 10
2/1/2018 660 0 0 0 10
2/4/2018 664 0 0 0 10
2/5/2018 656 0 0 0 10
2/6/2018 652 0 0 0 10
2/8/2018 656 0 0 0 10
2/11/2018 656 0 0 0 10
2/12/2018 658 0 0 0 10
2/14/2018 653 0 0 0 10
2/15/2018 667 0 0 0 10
2/18/2018 665 0 0 0 10
2/20/2018 663 0 0 0 10
2/21/2018 665 0 0 0 10
2/22/2018 656 0 0 0 10
2/25/2018 653 0 0 0 10
2/26/2018 640 0 0 0 10
2/27/2018 646 0 0 0 10
2/28/2018 637 0 0 0 10
3/4/2018 610 0 0 0 10
3/5/2018 583 0 0 0 10
3/6/2018 593 0 0 0 10
3/7/2018 600 0 0 0 10
3/11/2018 590 0 0 0 10
3/12/2018 588 0 0 0 10
3/13/2018 592 0 0 0 10
3/14/2018 596 0 0 0 10
 Average 845.58
Total Run [R] 10
n 214 Rx
n0 64 Z
n1 150 
where R  number of runs
E(Ret) 90.719626
VAR 37.370384
STDEV 6.1131321
2n1n2
Z -13.2043
x 1
p-value 0
n1  n2
2n1n2 (2n1n2  n1  n
H0: Random


 n1  n2 
2
Since p-value < 0.05 we can reject null. Hence the (n1  n2  1
HBL return is not random. Hence is inefficient in weak form
n1 , n2  number of observa
Z  standard normal var
 x

mber of runs
n2
1
n2
2 (2n1n2  n1  n2 )
 n2  (n1  n2  1)
2

mber of observations in each category

dard normal variable
 Year Returns (%) R-E® Sq MR R-E® Sq
2017 10 -9 81 14 -1.375 1.890625 12.375
2018 -25 -44 1936 17 1.625 2.640625 -71.5
2019 75 56 3136 8.5 -6.875 47.265625 -385
2020 16 -3 9 22 6.625 43.890625 -19.875
Ex. Return E® 19 5162 15.375 95.6875 -464
Std. Dev 2.24 Var 5 Var (M) 23.921875
C.V. 0.117894737 SDV(M) 4.8909994
CV(M) 0.3181138
State of Economy Probab (P) Return (%) PxR R-E® Sq SqxP
Strong 0.3 20 6 11.5 132.25 39.675
Moderate 0.4 10 4 1.5 2.25 0.9
Poor 0.3 -5 -1.5 -13.5 182.25 54.675
Expected Return 8.5 Variance 95.25
Std. Dev 9.7596106
Standard Deviation C.V. 1.1481895
Variance

Covariance
Correlation
Beta
COV (AM) -116
R (AM) -10.58796

Beta -4.849118

B(M) 1
Runs Test Results for Closing Price

1200
Number of obs 214
Number above cutoff 150 1000
Closing Price
Number below cutoff 64
800
Number of runs 10
600
E(R) 90.720
400
Stdev(R) 6.113
Z-value -13.204 200
p-value (2-tailed) 0.000
0
4/2/2017 6/2/2017 8/2/2017 10/2/2017 12/2/2017 2/2/201
 Price

10/2/2017 12/2/2017 2/2/2018

 Time series plot of Closing Price

1120

1040

960

880
Closing Price

Closing Price

800

720

640

560
4/2/2017 5/2/2017 6/2/2017 7/2/2017 8/2/2017 9/2/2017 10/2/2017 11/2/2017 12/2/2017 1/2/2018 2/2/2018 3/2/2018

Date