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COVID-19
Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. Updated 13 April 2020 Version 1.1.
COVID-19
BCG Perspectives
Objectives of this document
Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. Updated 13 April 2020 Version 1.1.
COVID-19 is a global Leaders need to drive an integrated
societal crisis response to navigate the crisis
We at BCG believe that the COVID-19 outbreak is It is the duty of health, political, societal, and business
first and foremost a societal crisis, threatening lives leaders to navigate through this crisis. A complex
and the wellbeing of our global community. Society interplay of epidemic progression, medical response,
now, more than ever, needs to collaborate to protect government action, sector impact, and company action
people's lives and health, manage mid-term is playing out jointly. This document intends to help
implications and search for lasting solutions. leaders find answers and shape opinions to navigate
the crisis in their own environments. It encourages
thinking across the multiple time horizons over which
we see the crisis manifesting itself.
Source: BCG 1
Executive Summary | COVID-19 BCG Perspectives
The COVID-19 disease progression is a global societal crisis which needs to be addressed collaboratively by leaders worldwide
• Medical response is ramping up according to health system preparedness; many countries have reached hospitalization and treatment capacity limits
• Government action includes a set of measures like social distancing, and financial stimulus and restart plans based on country-specific trade-offs
• Public engagement and response to these measures varies by country and will co-determine if, when, and how societies relax restrictions
• Countries will likely go through three principle phases of the outbreak: (1) FLATTEN the spread curve, (2) collectively FIGHT the virus, preserve public
health and progressively reopen sectors of economy and society, and (3) prepare for the FUTURE
Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. Updated 13 April 2020 Version 1.1.
The evolution of the crisis shapes different economic scenarios that already imply significant impact on business sectors and the public
• From past crises, we find economies recover in one of three shapes: rapid recovery (V-shape), slow comeback (U-shape), or protracted challenge (L-shape)
• Countries which took swift, strong action and ensured adherence, such as China, seem to be on a recovery path
• Business impact is determined by demand shocks (e.g. consumer confidence) and supply shocks (e.g. shutdowns) as well as supply chain disruptions
• Consumer behavior changes towards increased savings and wellness as opposed to travel or discretionary spend, putting pressure on certain sectors
• Sectors such as health care, food, or household products see limited impact whereas sectors such as fashion retail, auto, or energy struggle
Business leaders globally therefore need to respond differently to this crisis and find tailored actions to urgent and important issues:
• Leaders will have to plan for scenarios across the Flatten, Fight, and Future horizons and take into consideration global footprints
• With a clear logic on demand curves, the period of disruption due to social distancing, and consumer confidence, leaders will need to take bold actions
We believe to navigate this crisis, leaders need to be able to think along two dimensions:
(1) Taking an integrated perspective on health/medical progression, governmental responses, societal
reactions, and economic implications to understand business/sector impacts and
(2) thinking multi-timescale (the now, near and long-term future); i.e., in a flatten-fight-future logic
Source: BCG 2
COVID-19 will be a journey with three distinct phases requiring an
integrated perspective
Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. Updated 13 April 2020 Version 1.1.
Social distancing (e.g., lockdown) and also partial Moderate economic activity with recovering Reactivated economy with strong business
business closures outside a few, lead to economic GDP, some business reopenings and social rebound and job growth, social restrictions
recession with large employment impact distancing on sustainable level limited or completely suspended
3. Economic scenarios
All of the above five factors result in specific economic and social outcomes in each phase
Source: BCG 3
1 COVID-19 Context and Development
Disease progression, health care system capacity, and response
Government policies and economic stimulus
Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. Updated 13 April 2020 Version 1.1.
Economic, Business, and Societal
2
Impact and Scenarios
Economic scenarios
Business engagement and response
Public engagement and response
4
1 COVID-19 Context and Development
Disease progression, health care system capacity, and response
Government policies and economic stimulus
Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. Updated 13 April 2020 Version 1.1.
Economic, Business, and Societal
2
Impact and Scenarios
Economic scenarios
Business engagement and response
Public engagement and response
5
DISEASE PROGRESSION,
HEALTH CARE SYSTEM
COVID-19 pandemic spread - cases doubling every ~10 days1 globally CAPACITY, AND
RESPONSE
As of 09 April 2020
UK
Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. Updated 13 April 2020 Version 1.1.
days days days
3k 42k 95k
Days of doubling cases:
# of fatality cases
0-3 days 3-6 days 6-14 days 14-30 days >30 days
Note: Continued cases and fatalities are subject to different testing, propensity, reporting standards and hence imperfect measures
1. No. of doubling days based on 7 day CAGR 2. Basis Johns Hopkins CSSE
Sources: Johns Hopkins CSSE, Our world in data, WHO situation reports, BCG analysis 6
DISEASE PROGRESSION,
HEALTH CARE SYSTEM
The week that was… CAPACITY, AND
RESPONSE
Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. Updated 13 April 2020 Version 1.1.
7
DISEASE PROGRESSION,
HEALTH CARE SYSTEM
Different progression scenarios have emerged across countries CAPACITY, AND
RESPONSE
As of 07 April 2020
Max/ Hubei, China Recovering Max/ South Korea Stable Max/ Italy Stable
day: day: day:
14,840 851 6,557
# of # of # of
new new new
cases cases cases
Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. Updated 13 April 2020 Version 1.1.
Days since first 100 infections Days since first 100 infections Days since first 100 infections
Max/ Beijing, China Recovering Max/ Singapore Increasing Max/ Germany Stable
day: day: day:
29 120 6,933
# of # of # of
new new new
cases cases cases
Days since first 100 infections Days since first 100 infections Days since first 100 infections
# of # of # of
new new new
cases cases cases
Days since first 100 infections Days since first 100 infections Days since first 100 infections
As of 08 April 2020
Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. Updated 13 April 2020 Version 1.1.
15%
• US and Europe are current
Brazil epicenters
UK • India currently has a high
Canada US
10% Japan France infection growth rate but a low
Central & South America
Africa Cases doubling: 8 days base
Sweden Belgium
Singapore
Portugal Netherlands Germany
5%
Iran
Spain Nations approaching fight
Iceland Cases doubling: 14 days
Norway
Switzerland
Italy stage
Austria
• China and South Korea in Fight
South Korea Greater China
0% stage, have loosened lockdown
1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000 Fight measures. Key focus now on
'imported' cases
Cumulative number of confirmed cases
1. Includes Middle-east .
Source: National Health Commission China (China-specific data), Johns Hopkins CSSE(Non-China Data), BCG Henderson Institute analysis 9
DISEASE PROGRESSION,
HEALTH CARE SYSTEM
As of 07 April 2020 CAPACITY, AND
RESPONSE
Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. Updated 13 April 2020 Version 1.1.
Average time from symptom
COVID-19: Still onset until death
~14-20 days
As of 07 April 2020
Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. Updated 13 April 2020 Version 1.1.
10,000 Russia
Spain and have higher # of cases
US
France
# Cases/M* 54 707
Africa ANZ Asia2 Central & South America Europe North America
1.GDP per capita is expressed in PPP (current, international dollars) based on 2018 2. Includes Middle-east * Data corresponds to the set of 56 countries represented in the chart
Source: World Bank, Worldometers.info, Our World in Data, Johns Hopkins 11
DISEASE PROGRESSION,
Launch of new testing methods critical for better understanding HEALTH CARE SYSTEM
CAPACITY, AND
- scaling and quality of tests likely to be the next challenge RESPONSE
Test purpose Available for last 2+ weeks Becoming available now In development
Examples
Lab-based
Presence of
Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. Updated 13 April 2020 Version 1.1.
viral genome
Near-patient/
Rapid, on-site Panel with Flu
Point-of-Care
portable test A/B Handheld digital PCR
Lab-based
Immune
response to
virus Near-patient/ Many players announced
Point-of-Care development plans1
1. More that 70 serology test makers have notified FDA that they have serology tests available for use as of April 7, 2020
Source: CDC website, FDA website, company websites 12
DISEASE PROGRESSION,
Lack of seasonality, recurrence, and mutation – HEALTH CARE SYSTEM
CAPACITY, AND
three elements to watch out for RESPONSE
As of 06 April 2020
Is there a seasonal impact? Is the virus recurrent? What is the mutation rate?
Australia and Ecuador cases rising, indicating Hong Kong experienced second wave, Research indicates mutation
warmer weather may not slow outbreak though new containment measures seem to rate of SARS-CoV-2 is likely low
have slowed it down
Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. Updated 13 April 2020 Version 1.1.
Cumulative # of confirmed cases # of new cases per day
6,000 80
"The mutation rate would
Hong Kong
60 suggest that the vaccine
4,000 Australia would be a single vaccine,
40 rather than a new vaccine
every year."
2,000
20
— Peter Thielen, JHU1
Ecuador
0 0
23-Feb 8-Mar 22-Mar 5-Apr 23-Feb 8-Mar 22-Mar 5-Apr
As of 30 March 2020
110%
100%
Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. Updated 13 April 2020 Version 1.1.
70%
60%
50%
40%
30% -37pp.
-25pp.
-18pp. -25pp.
20% -15pp. -11pp.
-11pp.
10%
0%
Day 0 Day 14 Day 0 Day 14 Day 0 Day 14 Day 0 Day 14 Day 0 Day 14 Day 0 Day 14 Day 0 Day 14 Days
since
measure
School Workplace Cancel public Close public Public info Restrict internal International
closing closing events transportation campaigns movement travel controls
# of countries
that implemented 12 13 6 8 5 9 6
measures
As of 7 April 2020
Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. Updated 13 April 2020 Version 1.1.
Australia 9.7%
25 Mar: German lower house approved a
Canada 8.4% $814B stimulus package2 including:
Germany 4.9% • Direct payments to distressed small
Brazil 3.5% businesses and self-employed
Saudi Arabia 2.7% • Loan guarantees to secure corporate debt
France 2.0% at risk of defaulting
Turkey 1.5% • Loans to struggling businesses
Italy 1.4%
China 1.2% Stimulus packages being announced 27 Mar: U.S. approved a $2.2T stimulus
Argentina 1.0% progressively by countries; package including:
South Korea 0.8% overall picture likely to change rapidly • Direct payments to individuals
India 0.8%
• Loans to small businesses and distressed
European Union 0.3% firms
Russia 0.2% • Expanded unemployment insurance
Indonesia 0.2% benefits
South Africa 0.2%
1 As announced on April 07 2020, based on following sources: IMF (2 April 2020) except Japan: Reuters (7 April 2020);
Russia: BusinessLine (22 March 2020); South Africa: ABC (26 March 2020)
2. $814B stimulus package across fiscal, monetary, etc. 15
Few governments are starting to prepare for the GOVERNMENT
POLICIES AND
end of 'Flatten' phase ECONOMIC STIMULUS
As of 06 April 2020
Some countries announce wave of projected measures to ease lockdown but at the same time urge the public to avoid social contacts
"Austria set to be first European country to ease lockdown" Financial Times, 6 April 2020
Currently planned: Mid-April Currently planned: Beginning of May Currently planned: Mid-May Currently planned: Beginning of July
Austria Limited retail reopenings Complete retail reopenings Reopening of schools Events potentially allowed
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Small non-essential, and DIY All shops, malls, and salons will All schools, as well as Permission for events to take
stores allowed to reopen with be allowed to reopen under restaurants and hotels might place – no decision yet on a
restrictions (e.g., minimum restrictions (minimum distance potentially be reopened threshold for the allowed
distance and face masks) and face masks) (specifics not yet confirmed) number of participants
Today
Currently planned: Mid-April Currently planned: Mid-May
"Denmark to ease restrictions next week after coronavirus lockdown" Reuters, 6 April 2020
Source: Financial Times; Reuters; Tagesschau; The Brussels Times; Time; BCG 16
1 COVID-19 Context and Development
Disease progression, health care system capacity, and response
Government policies and economic stimulus
Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. Updated 13 April 2020 Version 1.1.
Economic, Business, and Societal
2
Impact and Scenarios
Economic scenarios
Business engagement and response
Public engagement and response
17
ECONOMIC
Key economic indicators point to a downturn SCENARIOS
As of 09 April 2020
Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. Updated 13 April 2020 Version 1.1.
7
5 Total of 16.8M initial
0 6 unemployment insurance
claims for last three weeks
-5 5 (3.3M week ending March 21,
-10 U.S. (S&P 500) 6.9M week ending March 28,
4 and 6.6M week of April 4)
-15 Germany (DAX)
UK (FTSE 100) 3
-20
Japan (Nikkei 225)
-25 Korea (KOSPI) 2
-30 China (MSCI)
1
-35
0
1-Jan 1-Mar 1-May 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
1. Financial Crisis S&P sell-off at comparable time frame: 26/09/2008 – 27/10/2008 and 19/02/2020 - 23/03/2020 2. Peak VIX recorded 16/03/2020
Source: OECD, Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on global FDI and GVCs, UNCTAD, US Bureau of Labor Statistics, BCG 18
ECONOMIC
This has led to economic forecasts become increasingly negative SCENARIOS
As of 07 April 2020
US Europe China
Forecast GDP growth vs. baseline before COVID-19 Forecast GDP growth vs. baseline before COVID-19 Forecast GDP growth vs. baseline before COVID-19
6.0% (03.4.) HSBC Holdings 6.1% HSBC Holding (07.4.) 9.2% (03.4.) Morgan Stanley
5.3% (03.4.) Morgan Stanley 9.2% (03.4.) JP Morgan Chase
5.5% Morgan Stanley (03.4.)
Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. Updated 13 April 2020 Version 1.1.
3.8% (31.3.) Deutsche Bank 8.8% (03.4.) Nomura Securities
3.4% (07.4.) ING Group 4.7% JP Morgan Chase (03.4.)
6.5% (07.4.) ABM Amro
3.0% (25.3.) Swedbank 3.5% Standard Chartered (03.4) `
6.3% (03.4.) Dankse Bank
2.9% (04.4.) Danske Bank 2.7% DZ Bank (27.3.) Baseline: 6.0% 5.8% Baseline
2.4% (03.4.) Barclays
Baseline: 2.0% 1.9% ABN Amro (20.03.) Caixa Bank (27.3.): 5.5%
5.8% (07.4.) ING Group
Citi Group (31.3.): -0.5% 1.7% Baseline 1.8% UBS (03.4.) Danske Bank (03.4.): 5.2%
Visa (06.4.): -1.1% 5.7% (27.3.) Caixa Bank
1.6% (06.4.) Visa Baseline: 1.3% 1.4% Baseline Action Economics (27.3.): 5.0%
Danske Bank (04.4.): -2.0% 1.1% (26.3.) Wells Fargo 1.4% Fitch Solutions
Wells Fargo (26.3.): -2.4% (26.3.) ING Group (07.4.): 4.0%
Fitch Solutions (26.3.): -1.3%
Swedbank (25.3.): -3.0% Credit Suisse (02.4.): 3.3%
ABN Amro (20.3.): -2.7%
JP Morgan Chase (03.4.): -3.4% ABN Amro (07.4.): 3.0%
Deutsche Bank (31.3.): -4.2%
Standard Chartered (03.4.): --4.0%
Barclays (03.4.): -4.5% Morgan Stanley (03.4.): 2.0%
UBS (03.4.): -4.5%) JP Morgan Chase(03.4.): 1.1%
Morgan Stanley (03.4): -5.5%
BAML (02.4.): -6.0% Morgan Stanley (03.4.): -5.0%
Nomura Securities (03.4.): 1.0%
HSBC Holdings (03.4.): -6.5% DZ Bank (27.3.): -5.6%
ING Group (07.4.): -7.0% Natixis (01.4.): -5.9%
HSBC Holdings (07.4.): -6.4%
2020 2021 2020 2021 2020 2021
De minimis impact on the present value Large and perpetual loss of present Ever-growing loss in future output and
of future output value of future output infinite loss of future value
Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. Updated 13 April 2020 Version 1.1.
No lost output Same perpetually Perpetually growing
lost output lost output
Lost output
Lost output
Lost output
Source: BCG 20
ECONOMIC
China's path is indicative of what a strong response can deliver SCENARIOS
As of 08 April 2020
People and goods are Coal consumption moving higher Property transactions are
starting to move again restarting
2.0
65
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70
55
1.7
50 50
1.6
45 40
1.5
40
1.4 30
35
1.3 2020
2020 20
1.2 30 2020
10
1.1 25
1.0 20 0
-18 -14 -10 -6 -212/2
2 6 10 14 18 22 26 30 34 38 10/4
42 -18 -14 -10 -6 -2 12/2
2 6 10 14 18 2212/3
26 30 34 38 42
12
15
18
21
24
27
30
33
36
39
42
0
3
6
9
-18
-15
-12
-9
-6
-3
As of 30 March 2020
Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. Updated 13 April 2020 Version 1.1.
Italy is beginning to follow
89 90 91 88
85 84 86 83 84 87 87 86 86 86 88
79 81 79 80
77 75 76
71
66
59 62
57
53
40
35
Agreement with each statement as of 13-16 March 2020 (%) Agreement with each statement as of 27–30 March 2020 (%)
Note: Question text: “How much do you agree with each of the following statements about the coronavirus?”
Source: BCG COVID-19 Consumer Sentiment Survey, 13–16 March 2020 (N = 1,831 China; 2,521 France; 2,206 Italy; 2,787 UK; 2,345 US), and 27–30 March 2020 (N = 2,916 China; 2,985
France; 2,150 Italy; 2,984 UK; 2,944 US) unweighted; representative within ±3% of census/national demographics 22
Consumers prioritize savings and wellness over BUSINESS ENGAGEMENT
AND RESPONSE
travel and discretionary spend
As of 30 March 2020 UK Germany US Canada Italy France UK Germany US Canada Italy France
In-home entertainment Travel
Fresh and organic foods Luxury/fashion
Packaged food and beverages Public transportation
Preventive health care Home décor
Household care products Women’s clothing
Savings Outerwear
Medical procedures Athletic equipment & clothing
Home electronics & appliances
Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. Updated 13 April 2020 Version 1.1.
Vitamins/supplements
Out-of-home entertainment Shoes/footwear
Utilities Toys and games
Restaurant pickup/delivery Men’s clothing
Education Mobile electronics
Restaurants
Gambling
Healthier categories1 Pressured categories1 Cars/automobiles
Tobacco/smoking
More than 20% of respondents More than 20% of respondents
Out-of-home entertainment
plan to spend more plan to spend less Restaurant pickup/delivery
Cosmetics/perfume
Alcohol
Savings
Medical procedures
Education
Hair and body care
Rent/mortgage
In-home entertainment
Utilities
Insurance
Vitamins/supplements
Note: Question text: “How do you expect your spend to change in the next 6 months across the following areas?” Categories listed exclude baby/child food, childcare, and children's clothing
1. Countries can have categories in both columns - signaling volatility / shift in consumer preferences 23
Source: BCG COVID-19 Consumer Sentiment Survey, 27–30 March 2020 (N = 2,928 CAN; 2,985 FRA; 3,085 GER; 2,150 ITA; 2,984 UK; 2,944 US), unweighted; representative ±3% of census dem.
A large share of global sectors are seeing BUSINESS ENGAGEMENT
AND RESPONSE
total shareholder returns (TSR) decline
As of 21 February 2020 to 04 April 2020
Decline reflects economic scenario and consumer sentiment
TSR performance (21 February – 04 April 2020)1 Observations
Americas Europe Asia
Food/staples Retail -9% -8% -10% Non-discretionary/essential service sectors performing better
Household Products -11% -13% -2% in current climate – food and staples retail best positioned
Healthier sectors Pharma -13% -13% -12%
Telecom -14% -15% -10% Some evidence of more advanced recovery in Asia
Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. Updated 13 April 2020 Version 1.1.
Food & Beverage -17% -23% -8%
Semiconductors -21% -34% -21%
Utilities -22% -27% -4%
Health Equipment -22% -23% -4% Broad set of industries experiencing pressure, with some
Software -25% -27% -23% regions particularly affected for certain sectors (e.g. transport
Prof. Services -26% -26% -24%
Pressured sectors in Europe)
Capital Goods -28% -32% -25%
Transport -28% -43% -14% Utilities and health equipment generally better off in Asia
Financials -28% -31% -24%
Tech Hardware -28% -17% -20%
Materials -28% -25% -24%
Media -31% -42% -6%
Retailing -35% -35% -16%
Insurance -36% -33% -21%
Banks -39% -48% -23% With exception of media, sectors down >20% across
Vulnerable sectors Real Estate -41% -30% -20%
geographies
Auto -45% -42% -30%
Hospitality -47% -43% -25%
Durable Goods -47% -32% -17%
Energy -47% -26% -28%
Note: As of 02 April 2020; Based on top S&P Global 1200 companies; Industries are based on GICS definitions
1 Performance is tracked for the period 21 February 2020 (before international acceleration of outbreak), through 02 April 2020
Source: S&P Capital IQ; BCG Henderson Institute; BCG 24
Current climate implies increase in credit risk for BUSINESS ENGAGEMENT
AND RESPONSE
majority of sectors
As of 21 February 2020 to 02 April 2020 Number of
companies with
Median 5-year CDS1 5-year CDS
implied probability probability of Companies in Observations
of default1 default >15% distress (%)
Food/Staples Retail 7% 0 0%
Household Products 5% 0 0%
Healthier sectors Pharma 4% 3 17%
Telecom 7% 6 23%
Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. Updated 13 April 2020 Version 1.1.
Food & Beverage 5% 1 4%
Semiconductors 7% 1 17% Hospitality and energy
Utilities 5% 0 0% industries facing greatest
Health Equipment 6% 0 0% risk of default based on
Software 5% 0 0% current credit profile
Prof. Services 5% 0 0%
Pressured sectors Capital Goods 6% 7 12% Less discretionary sectors
Transport 4% 8 32% are largely at lower risk of
Financials 8% 0 0% default in current climate
Tech Hardware 6% 1 8%
Materials 8% 11 24%
Other sectors may
Media 11% 3 21% have individual
Retailing 13% 8 47% companies in specific
Insurance 7% 0 0% default risk as well
Banks 9% 2 4%
Vulnerable sectors Real Estate 10% 4 18%
Auto 15% 10 53%
Hospitality 18% 8 62%
Durable Goods 8% 3 17%
Energy 17% 19 59%
Note: As of 02 April 2020; Based on top S&P Global 1200 companies; Industries are based on GICS definitions
1 Credit Default Swap; 2 Performance is tracked for the period 21 February 2020 (before international acceleration of outbreak), through 02 April 2020
Source: S&P Capital IQ; BCG Henderson Institute; BCG 25
BUSINESS ENGAGEMENT
Survey as of 01 April 2020 AND RESPONSE
~60%
Assess viability of current investment plan 56% 38% 6%
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Put in place a cost-discipline plan 56% 40% 4%
of companies
have started
Modify dividend policies or share buy-back plans
preparing for 23% 23% 53%
recession
Assess investment/M&A opportunities
25% 35% 40%
that may arise from a potential downturn
Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. Updated 13 April 2020 Version 1.1.
• Flu struck in three waves across the globe • Social and economic impacts across the globe
Key
considerations • WWI played a crucial role in the outbreak • Outbreak in midst of rising climate awareness
• Particularly deadly for young and healthy • Globalization is at its peak
Societal • Isolation efforts were not immediately • Regional lockdowns with shifts in behavior
Shifts implemented due to soldiers returning home witnessed, such as hoarding
• Precautionary behaviors like wearing masks, • Alternative means of societal interactions
staying indoors, and avoiding public places gaining prevalence, such as online medicines
• Efforts intensified to protect societies from the • Changing mindsets likely altering societal
influenza through vaccines, and more awareness view on speed of globalization
1. Average of estimated fatality rates, 2. Avg. # of people infected by each sick person at the peak of transmission (when the susceptible population is at its largest)
Source: Bridgewater Associates, National Health Commission China, American Journal of Epidemiology, US National Library of Medicine, BCG Henderson Institute analysis 27
Society dramatically embracing digitization and PUBLIC ENGAGEMENT
AND RESPONSE
demanding contactless operations
Government measures taken in
historic crises and right now Likely changes in society
Launch of strong unemployment program: Holistic Higher preference for virtual meetings: Virtual meetings likely
communication about benefit programs, provision of individual to increase– remote work no exception
Employment assistance
Impact on employment situation: Potential shift toward more
Remote trainings: At-home trainings in collaboration with
Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. Updated 13 April 2020 Version 1.1.
community colleges and headhunters flexible and 'shared' workforce
Governmental logistics relief response: Removal of logistics Boom for digitization of essentials: Increased demand for
Daily obstacles by government for essential supplies digital/distanced health care and grocery delivery
essentials Relaunch of online order platforms: Relaunch of necessities Demand for contactless operations: Potential increased usage
shopping through e-commerce and contactless delivery of robots and pick-up shelves
Internet access aid program: Paid internet access for More virtual learning opportunities: Significant expansion of
Education underprivileged students digital learning offering for all academic institutions
Switch to online education format: Online education companies New online caregiving programs: Launch of new online
providing courses for impacted schools programs, including childcare, mental health
Three-level transportation strategies: From maintaining only Less demand for public transportation: Selective use of public
essential transportation to resuming daily transportation transportation in short-term – long-term dependent on alternatives
Transportation
Inbound passenger management: Direct transfer of inbound Centralized essentials supply: Governmental coordination of
passengers to centralized quarantine hotels living and medical supply
Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. Updated 13 April 2020 Version 1.1.
Economic, Business, and Societal
2
Impact and Scenarios
Economic scenarios
Business engagement and response
Public engagement and response
29
1 What can we learn from leaders who have successfully
managed past crises?
Business 2 How (and when) do we restart and bring back the organization
leaders have safely including operations and supply chain?
asked us
Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. Updated 13 April 2020 Version 1.1.
3 What are the big shifts/fundamental changes in consumer
7
behavior and how do we move quickly to seize these shifts?
key questions 6 How do we enable our workforce with “new ways of working,”
accelerate digital, and build robust cyber architecture?
Source: BCG 30
Guiding principles Be visible, purposeful, Leverage the principle
and authentic of “commander’s intent"
for leadership Communicate in ways that engage and Share only key objectives and rationale
in crisis increase the relevance of your teams
and clarify the reasons underlying your
of required actions to allow the
organization to be flexible and
communications adaptive, and allow a focus on
Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. Updated 13 April 2020 Version 1.1.
execution
“THESE are the times that try Use multiple clock-speeds Engage externally
men's souls. The summer soldier Think on multiple timescales by Communicate with customers and
and the sunshine patriot will, in
this crisis, shrink from the service
considering the now, the next, and the stakeholders to gather frequent, fresh,
of their country; but he that later. Ensure that leadership teams look firsthand information to adapt and
stands by it now, deserves the love ahead and prepare for the future respond effectively
and thanks of man and woman.
Tyranny, like hell, is not easily
conquered; yet we have this
consolation with us, that the
harder the conflict, the more Cut through bureaucracy Keep imagination alive
glorious the triumph."
Assemble a multi-functional task force Look out for new needs and opportunities
that is empowered to make decisions to serve clients now and beyond the crisis.
Thomas Paine, The Crisis and suspend normal decision protocols We will not be reverting to a 2019 reality
Illustrative
Current focus for most public and business leaders
Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. Updated 13 April 2020 Version 1.1.
Health care
system capacity
GDP Interventions
Interventions
Critical-care
patients
Time
Cure/vaccine/
Lockdown
treatment/
lifted
herd immunity
61% of world GDP and 41% of world population 18% of world GDP and 19% of world population
G-20 Turkey Spain Germany Italy South Africa China South Korea
countries Brazil Russia Indonesia Saudi Arabia Australia
France UK India Canada
Mexico Argentina USA Japan
Lockdown
9
Establish crisis 1 Develop Scenario-Based
Planning Approach to
2 Create a Rapid Response
and Transformation
management manage uncertainty (RR&T) team
2.1.
17 April 2020 Version 1.1.
3 Revamp Organization and
People for the new normal 6 Manage Cost, Cash, and
Liquidity
1 Develop Scenario-Based
Planning Approach to
potential operations restart; adjust for sector-specific issues
• Perform scenario stress tests around cash-flow
geography and line of business, depth of demand
drop, duration of Fight phase
• Establish preconditions for what it will take to get workforce • Develop recommendations for daily planning,
manage uncertainty back to offices, factories, etc. resources, supply chain, workforce, and other
2.1.
17 April 2020 Version 1.1.
• Set up teams to work on different time horizons (flatten, fight, stakeholder management as per modeled
future) to avoid reverting to crisis management across all scenarios
• Establish nimble cross-functional Rapid Response & • To manage the massive complexity of "restarting",
Transformation team (RR&T) enhance Rapid Response & Transformation team
2
Navigate through
• Define policies to keep employees safe with high morale • Get ahead of the curve on team to manage policies
Flatten, Fight, and Future • Engage across levels to retain talent to get teams back to work safely
• Move to online/remote working; redefine rosters and train • Take a clear view of forward demand and the new
3 Revamp Organization
and People for the new
for efficiency/effectiveness
• Establish preconditions for coming back to the working
normal: manage/restructure organization to fit
capacity needs
environment; clearly communicate • Create dedicated focus to accelerate digital,
normal • Build SWAT teams to address critical business areas, process automation, new ways of working
such as product launch, digital channel redesign, retail
delivery models
Source: BCG 34
Detailed measures across priority action NAVIGATING
BUSINESSES
areas (2/3) THROUGH THE CRISIS
Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. Updated 13 April 2020 Version 1.1.
seize market shifts; leverage learnings to
accelerate digital capabilities
• Take measures to ensure operations continuity: • Ensure quick and safe restart of facilities; drive
Workforce safety and management, stop-gap measures centrally driven efficiency measures
for supply chain, site readiness (access, maintenance,
5 Stabilize & restart Supply
Chain, Manufacturing
services, suppliers)
• Set up capabilities (org, control tower) to
manage unstable supply chain; explore alternate
• Ensure open and direct communication with employees networks, dual/multiple suppliers for critical
• Explore solutions to retain key talent goods and services, delivery methods, etc.
• Accelerate production as demand rebounds;
account for product shifts
• Build forecasts for COVID-19 impact on P&L, balance • Build central team to simulate financials as per
sheet, investor base evolving scenarios; drive agile working ways
6 Manage Cost, Cash, &
Liquidity
• Review capital sufficiency scenarios and possible effects
on credit risk
• Decisively take structural actions: TURN PMO,
zero-based budgets, delayering/restructuring,
• Manage credit and debt commitment for short term re-base tech portfolio, etc.; deploy rapidly as
• Create agile FY20-21 business plans and budgets to deal speed is predictive of success in downturns
with uncertainty
Source: BCG 35
Detailed measures across priority action NAVIGATING
BUSINESSES
areas (3/3) THROUGH THE CRISIS
Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. Updated 13 April 2020 Version 1.1.
• Develop and implement strategy to exploit
greater talent availability
• Address and serve immediate workforce needs for • Identify and implement key digital use cases and
Accelerate Digital &
8 Technology transformation
remote working
• Leverage tools for conducting key processes online
adapt to agile way of working
• Accelerate use cases to meet demand shifts
• Adapt traditional processes to become digitally viable • Redesign key customer journeys with emphasis
on digital interventions
• Ensure immediate support to employees, suppliers, • Determine how to contribute in the crisis to
communities, etc. employees, customers, through medical response,
• Team with government/local communities/across supply of essential items for society, or by playing a
Help Society during
9 COVID-19
industries to address crisis
• Leverage assets, supplier relationships, logistics
positive economic/employment role
• Allocate innovation resources where possible to
networks, and employees to help adjacent communities focus on solutions to COVID-19 crisis
• Work across industry boundaries to identify cross- • Leverage expertise developed to support
sectoral synergies to deploy solutions government policies and responses, rebuild
business for local customers, suppliers, etc.
Source: BCG 36
Additional perspectives on leading through the crisis
Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. Updated 13 April 2020 Version 1.1.
People & Organizations Strategy Crisis Response Checklist Transportation & Logistics Airlines Public Sector
How to protect your Sensing and shaping the Checklist Transportation and logistics The post-COVID-19 flight Governing in the time
workforce during the post-COVID era companies must adapt to keep plan for airlines of coronavirus
COVID-19 pandemic supplies moving
Source: BCG 37
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