Kathmandu University School of Management

Balkumari, Lalitpur

#Assignment-5

Risk Analysis (Failure Mode Method) of

Alaska Fly Fishing Expedition

Submitted by:

Simrik Shrestha

Roll no. 177106

BBA 3rd year, Sem V

Submitted to:
Mr. Jayakar Vaidya
Faculty of Project Management

Submission on: November 28, 2019

 Case Synopsis

President of Blue Note Inc. sent a fax that she wanted to reward her top management team on an
all expenses paid fly fishing adventure in Alaska. So, the team now is planning at Great Alaska
Adventures (GAA) and she would like GAA to organize and lead the expedition. For the Project
Scope statement, the main objective would be to organize and lead a five-day fly fishing
expedition down the Tiksick river system in Alaska from June 21 to June 25 at a cost not
exceeding $27000.

Q. Conduct the risk analysis of the project by using the failure mode method. You have to
select at least seven risk factors and find their mode score. Also propose the risk
mitigation plan for the high-risk score events.

Answer:

As GAA is planning to organize and lead the expedition, their project as this one may have
various risks. The potential risk factors that can affect the expedition directly or indirectly
based on the current market scenario of Alaska are as below:

1. Unpredictable Weather:
As we know the weather is unpredictable including sudden weather change, storms and
heavy rainfall, there is risk that if the weather goes bad, the flight may delay and there can
be complications while fly fishing, boating or even can lead to cancellation of their plans.
2. Inflation:
It will be challengeable if inflation occurs during that period of time. The prices of the
deliverables could increase very high if with the trend, inflation rate increased up to 3% as
per 2018 data. And since there is limited budget of $27000, there will be many problems
arising during the trip.
3. Legal Constraints:
If there are misunderstandings while making contract or there are any terms and conditions
changed, there will be many issues raised. Also, if laws of nature reserves and population
of wild animals and fish may be restrictions on the ability to fly fish and restrict in camping
options.
4. Health and Safety Issue:
Since in Alaska while Fly Fishing, there are high possibilities of bear and other animal
attacks which can affect the clients. Also, due to new environment to client and due to risky
transports, they may get sick or injured during the trip.
5. Resource Constraints:
During the expedition, if there is any shortage of resources is seen, it can impact the entire
trip. Resources here include human resource i.e. guide, trainers, lodge, transportation
mediums, etc. And since, June is the most preferable month for fly fishing in Alaska so
there may be other people going there too which can case shortage for GAA.
6. Technology constraints:
Since, there are technological requirements mentioned, such as air transportation, boat
transportation within Tiksick River, digital cellular communication devices and camps and
fishing conform to state of Alaska requirement, the trip will be highly affected if these
devices or transportation are not available on time or have technical issues which can even
lead to project failure.
7. Delay in Schedule:
GAA has planned 5 days of expedition in detail with each activity allocated to certain time.
If one of the activity is late to be done, all the other activities of the expedition can be
highly affected. For example, if their flight is late by 3 or 4 hours because of unexpected
issues, it can delay the entire schedule of the project.
All the 7 potential risk factors mentioned above are measured and rated based on three
elements including the probability, severity and hideability. First, the probability is
measured based on the likelihood for the risk to occur while the project is running. Then,
Severity is measured based on the impact or damage that can be seen in the project if that
risk event occurs. Similarly, Hideability is measured as to see if the risk can be detected
easily or not during the project. These three are scored or measured on a scale of 1-10
where, 1-3 means low, 4-6 means medium and 7-10 means high. Here, High severity, high
probability and high hideability of risk factors can hamper more in the project.
The scores are also rated based on current market scenario in Alaska and the potential risk
scores are compared to a practices bottom line of 25 which means if the risk score is less
 than 25, the risk can be ignored and should not be bothered with finding mitigation and
vice versa.

Project: Alaska Fly Fishing Expedition Time: 5 days

Risk Event Probability Severity Hideability Risk Score Mitigation Planned
Unpredictable 7 8 3 168 Check weather
Weather forecasts beforehand
and take essentials
according to the
weather
Inflation 7 9 2 126 Plan project at less
cost than assigned
budget to save money
Legal 2 8 2 32 Read well the contract
Constraints and first and foremost
set a meeting to clear
the terms and
conditions
Health and 7 8 2 112 Ensure that every
Safety Issue client has a life
insurance and first aid
trainers should be
taken with them
Resource 5 9 2 90 Reservations should
Constraints be made beforehand.
Planning should be
done in detail
Technology 5 8 1 40 Check the availability
Barriers and functionality of all
the transportation and
devices taken for the
trip
Delay in 2 5 5 50 Flight schedules and
Schedule the itinerary of the
entire trip should be
provided to the client
to finish the project on
time
Risk Event:

1. Unpredictable weather:
Probability- High since in Alaska the weather can change suddenly in June-July.
Severity- It’s impact is very high because bad weather can delay in their schedule and
they even have to cancel plans.
Hideability- Low since weather can be forecasted with various devices and media
instantly.
2. Inflation:
Probability- High since, Alaska in past had stagnant inflation but in 2018, it reached upto
3% inflation rate and can be further increased.
Severity- Very high since they have a fix budget of $27000, if the inflation rate increased
and they do not have spare amount of budget it can impact the entire trip very badly as
goods and services will be expensive.
Hideability- It is low since inflation rate can be easily experienced while buying products
and services. Also, there are many media websites and apps that shows inflation rates.
3. Legal Risk:
Probability- There are low chances that the contracts and terms and conditions will
change because the agreement is made beforehand.
Severity- The impact of legal risk will be high because if the terms and conditions or
policies are changed, it can restrict the clients from doing some particular activities.
Hideability- It will be low since usually; the terms and conditions are explained
beforehand.
4. Health and Safety Issue:
Probability- It is high since there are chances that clients will get injured while hike and
fly fishing and since there are bear and other animal attacks as common dangers, the
probability is high.
Severity- This can highly affect the clients as they will doubt GAA’s security service and,
they can be traumatized which can even ruin the trip.
Hideability- Low since, there are people nearby for help which reduces the Hideability.

5. Resource Constraints:
 Probability- Medium because although there may be resource constraints as they have
outsourced many things but still they can cope up with the situation.
Severity- If the resources are shortage, it will highly affect the clients since the trip is all
about lodging and other resources like trainers are must.
Hideability- Low since the risk can easily be detected through travel advisor apps and
websites.
6. Technology Barriers:
Probability- Medium since there are chances that some technical errors may arise in
boats, air transport and other devices.
Severity- It can highly affect the trip since it may cause delay in schedules and even in
cancellation of plans
Hideability- it’s very low since, we can easily detect a technological barrier
7. Delay in Schedule:
Probability- Low since they have already discussed and pre-planned the schedule.
Severity- Medium as although there might be delays there will be compensation which
must be mentioned in the contract.
Hideability- Medium since they can be detected quite easily rather than other risks.

References

https://alaskafishcatcher.com/?_vsrefdom=adwords&gclid=Cj0KCQiA2vjuBRCqARIsAJL5a-
J61Bri9k03R3-aXvAkfyyTPPH_RsAmxaIHcVYeIPNK86hXaTSMJOQaAgTgEALw_wcB

https://weatherspark.com/m/252/7/Average-Weather-in-July-in-Anchorage-Alaska-United-
States

https://www.adn.com/business-economy/2019/07/06/inflation-in-alaska-went-up-in-2018-
after-stagnating-for-3-years/