Cocoa 

supply & demand: what to expect in the 
coming years? 
London, 22 September 2015

Daily QKCc1 21/09/2005 - 29/08/2014 (NYC)

Value
VltyOHLC, QKCc1, Trade Price, 0.0, 10, 365.0 USc
05/01/2010, 22.93
Lbs
BarHL, QKCc1, Trade Price
290
05/01/2010, 142.70, 140.40, +2.45, (+1.79%)
BBand, QKCc1, Trade Price(Last), 20, Simple, 2.0 280
05/01/2010, 149.64, 142.35, 135.06 270
260
250
248.94
240
230
220
210
200
190
180
170
160
150
146.00
140
135.50
130
125.19
120
110
104.39
100
90
80
70
60
55.74
50
40
30
20
10

Auto
O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S OTue
N D05/01/2010
J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A SO N D J FM A M J J A S O N D J FM A M J J AS
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Laurent Pipitone - ICCO - laurent.pipitone@icco.org

International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) | September 2015

1
 The “chocapocalypse 2020”

“No more chocolates by 2020!”
“Chocolate bars may get replaced by slabs of palm
oil and vegetable fats packed with raisins and nougat by 2020 ”
The Times of India – 13 April 2014

“Don’t panic, but we could be running 
out of chocolate”
“By 2020, the world could see a chocolate deficit of 1m tonnes”
The Telegraph – 17 November 2014

“We'll run out of cocoa in just SEVEN years!”
“The world will officially run out on October 2, 2020”
Star Sunday – 6 October 2013

Enjoy today’s Easter eggs: they could 
soon become a luxury
The Observer – 4 April 2015

“Manufacturers warn that the world may 
soon run out of chocolate!”
The Week – 17 November 2014

International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) | September 2015

2
 Trend in supply & demand
4,500

4,000

3,500
Thousand tonnes

3,000
Net Production

2,500

2,000
Grindings

1,500

1,000

Source: ICCO

International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) | September 2015

3
 Development of cocoa prices, 
in relation to cocoa availability
$15,000 160%

$14,000 18 July 1977: max 150%

US$18,000 per tonne
$13,000 140%

$12,000 130%

120%
$11,000
110%
$10,000
100%
$9,000
90%
$8,000
80%
$7,000
70%
$6,000 Today: over
60%
US$3,300 per tonne
$5,000
50%
$4,000
24 Nov 2000: min 40%
$3,000 US$1,000 per tonne
30%
$2,000 20%
$1,000 10%

$0 0%

Crop year (Oct-Sep)

Stocks-to-grindings ratio (right scale) ICCO daily price US$/tonne (current)
ICCO daily price US$/tonne (2013/14 terms)

International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) | September 2015

4
 World cocoa production (gross)
2014/15 forecast: 4.192 million tonnes

Africa: 72% Asia & Oceania: 10%

(3.013 million tonnes) (435,000 tonnes)

Latin America: 18%

(744,000 tonnes)

International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) | September 2015

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Source: ICCO
 Regional cocoa production
(thousand tonnes)
3,500

3,000

2,500
Thousand tonnes

2,000

1,500

1,000

500

Africa America Asia

International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) | September 2015

6
Source: ICCO
 2000

1800 1746 1760 Cocoa production: top 12

(thousand tonnes)
1600

1400 Estimates for 2013/14

Forecasts for 2014/15
1200

1000
897

800 720

600

375
400 350
234 250 230 248
228
230 211 210
200
76 78 70 70 51
49 36 42 30 30
0

Source: ICCO

International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) | September 2015

7
 Main factors influencing cocoa production 
and farm profitability
Business environment
• Ease of doing business
• Regulations and taxation
• Infrastructures
• Qualified labour availability and cost
• Policy support to the cocoa sector
Agronomic factors
• Farming system used (from agroforestry model to intensive, productivity-orientated
model, often without shade of any kind (full-sun),
• Level of farm crop diversity
• Variety of the cocoa used: yield, resistance to pests and diseases, quality traits
• Age of the trees
• Level of husbandry – Good Agricultural practices
• Use of inputs (labour, use of phytosanitary products and fertilizers)
• Weather condition
• Presence of pests and diseases
Economic factors
• Price of cocoa beans
• Cost of inputs

International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) | September 2015

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 World cocoa grindings
2014/15 forecast: 4.131 million tonnes

Europe and Russia: 38%

(1.571 million tonnes)

Asia & Oceania 20%

(831,000 tonnes)
Americas: 21%
(875,000 tonnes)
Africa: 21%
(855,000 tonnes)

International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) | September 2015

9
 Regional cocoa grindings
(thousand tonnes)
1,800

1,600

1,400

1,200

1,000
Thousand tonnes

800

600

400

200

Europe Africa America Asia

International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) | September 2015

10
 600
560
550 519
528
516 Cocoa processing: top 15
500
(thousand tonnes)
446
450
406 412 404
Estimates for 2013/14
400
Forecasts for 2014/15
350 322
312
300
259
250 240 234
220
200 200
200

150 135
126
98 96 91 94
100 88 91
73 78 79 77 75 71

50

Source: ICCO

International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) | September 2015

11
 Production surpluses / deficits
4 500 500

4 200
400
thousand tonnes (Production/Grindings)

thousand tonnes (Surplus/Deficit)

3 900
300
3 600

200
3 300

3 000 100

2 700
0

2 400
-100
2 100

-200
1 800

1 500 -300

International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) | September 2015

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 Cocoa apparent consumption

Cocoa year 2008/09 Cocoa year 2013/14

Asia & Oceania

Asia & Oceania European
Union European
Union
15% 17%
Latin Latin
America 39% America 36%
9%
9%

23% 10%
24%
North America 4%
3% 10% North America
Other
Other
Africa Europe
Europe
Africa

Source: ICCO, Quarterly Bulletin of Cocoa Statistics

International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) | September 2015

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 Growth in cocoa consumption
4500 60%
4004
4000 + 51%

3536
50%
3500

3000 + 31%
40%
2614
thousand tonnes

2500 2444
30%
2000 + 23%
+ 28%
1501
1500 1390 1421 20%
+ 12%
1091
1000 + 10%
794 856
10%
435 445
500 362 359
288 117 152 229 257 + 8% 325
+7% + 6%
0 0%

Source: ICCO 2008/09 2013/14 % Increase

International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) | September 2015

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 What about China and India?

Retail Chocolate confectionery consumption Cocoa consumption
China & World China &
World % world % world
India Consumption India
(in thousand tonnes) (in thousand tonnes)
2012/13        6,946           314 4.5%                3,889           115 3.0%
2013/14        7,061           344 4.9%                4,089           138 3.4%
2014/15        7,177           375 5.2%                4,131           150 3.6%
2015/16        7,314           406 5.5%                4,218           162 3.8%
2016/17        7,465           437 5.9%                4,318           175 4.0%
2017/18        7,626           469 6.2%                4,437           188 4.2%
2018/19        7,796           502 6.4%                4,568           201 4.4%

Annual growth
2013/14 -
2018/19 2.0% 7.9% 2.2% 7.9%
Source: Euromonitor, ICCO

International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) | September 2015

15
 ICCO Forecasts for cocoa supply and demand
5000

4800

4600
Thousand tonnes

4400

4200

4000

3800

3600

Production (net) Grindings

Note: These forecasts are the result of the ICCO econometric model on the World Cocoa Economy. The model is
Source: ICCO based on past information and does not take into account new policies set up to support the cocoa sector as well
as abnormal weather condition. The aim of the model is to provide a likely trend with a view to adapt government
policies and investments. Due caution should be used in using these forecasts.

International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) | September 2015

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