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Analysis for

Project
Investment
CHR I STI O NO U TO M O

CREUTOMO - INVESTMENT ANALYSIS FOR CONSTRUCTION PROJECT 1


Contents

1. BASIC 2. HOW TO APPLY 3. CASE: TRAM OF


INVESTMENT ANALYSIS SURABAYA

CREUTOMO - INVESTMENT ANALYSIS FOR CONSTRUCTION PROJECT 2


1. Basic
A. Property and Construction Project
B. Motivation to Money
C. Basic for Time Value of Money
A. Property and Construction Project
4

▪ Residential Property

▪ Commercial Office Property

▪ Commercial Retail Property

▪ Industrial Property

▪ Special Property

▪ Civil Work and Infrastructure

CREutomo - Investment Analysis for Construction Project


Residential Property

Single family homes :


1. Landed house
2. Town houses

Multi-family residence :
(Highrise midrise buildings)
1. Flat
2. Apartment
3. Condominium

CREutomo - Investment Analysis for Construction Project 5


Office Property

Single occupancy
(owner/not)
1. Institutional
2. Single tenant

Multiple occupancy
1. Institutional
2. Multiple use
3. Single use

CREutomo - Investment Analysis for Construction Project 6


Retail Property

Freestanding building
(Own and operate by the owner)
shop, stall, etc

Traditional Centre
1. Traditional market building
2. Shop houses
3. Shopping center

Specialized centers
factory outlet
CREutomo - Investment Analysis for Construction Project 7
Industrial Property

1. Heavy manufacturing

2. Light manufacturing

3. Storage, warehouse

CREutomo - Investment Analysis for Construction Project 8


Special Purpose Property

Hotel
Motel
Resort
Mobile home parks
Cinema
Airport
Train/Bus station

CREutomo - Investment Analysis for Construction Project 9


Civil Work and Infrastructure

Dam

Highway and other transportation


(Rail)

Tunnel

Bridge

CREutomo - Investment Analysis for Construction Project 10


Property and Corporate Property
Project investment for property business and project investment for
operational asset
DUA SISI ASET PROPERTI

INVESTASI PROPERTI PROPERTI PERUSAHAAN


PADA BISNIS PROPERTI PADA BISNIS NON PROPERTI

Materi Contoh Model Hubungan Materi


Residensial, kondominium Properti sebagai produk Apartemen Paragon Penyewa individu, Properti perusahaan sebagai aset
bisnis. penyewa perusahaan investasi dan aset operasional

Komersial Retail Fungsi manajemen properti Tunjungan Plaza Mc Donald 1) Strategi properti perusahaan dan
1) Hubungan dengan strategi bisnis
owner dan dasar 2) Keputusan properti perusahaan
Komersial Perkantoran kontraktual BRI Tower PT Sampoerna 3) Pengukuran dan evaluasi kinerja
2) Manajemen pemasaran properti perusahaan
3) Manajemen sewa dan
Kawasan Industri negosiasi SIER Komatsu
4) Manajemen hubungan
penyewa
5) Manajemen perawatan
dan konstruksi baru
6) Manajemen kantor

SINTESA Manajemen properti pada bisnis dan aset residensial, kondominium


Manajemen properti pada bisnis dan aset perkantoran
Manajemen properti pada bisnis dan aset ritel
Manajemen properti pada bisnis dan aset industri
Referensi Kyle, Robert C and Floyd M. Baird, 1995. Edwards, Victoria, dan Louise Ellison, 2004.
Laporan riset pasar seluruh tipe properti di Surabaya dan Jakarta Manning, Chris, and Stephen E Roulac, 2001: 7-57.
Laporan riset pasar properti residensial Indonesia McCourt, Sean B and Peter Holland, 2001.
Laporan riset pasar properti perkantoran Indonesia Nourse, Hugh O and Stephen Roulac, 1993: 475-494
Laporan riset pasar properti retail Indonesia Nourse, Hugh O, 1994: 431-444.
Laporan riset pasar properti kawasan industrial Indonesia Roulac, Stephen E, 2001: 129-152.

CREutomo - Investment Analysis for Construction Project 11


Strategic and Decision of Corporate Property

Strategic Decisions
1. Occupancy to cost minimization 1. Locations
2. Flexibility 2. Quantity
3. Promote human resource 3. Tenancy duration
objectives 4. Identity/Signage
4. Promote marketing message 5. Building size/Character
5. Promote sales and selling process 6. Building amenities
6. Facilitate production, operations, 7. Company space
service delivery
8. Ownership rights
7. Facilitate managerial process and
9. Financing
knowledge work
10. Control
8. Capture the real estate value
creation of the business 11. Risk management

CREutomo - Investment Analysis for Construction Project 12


B. Motivation to Money
13

First: Consumption (daily food, transportation)

Second: Saving (contingency, e.g. accident)

Third: Investment (Increasing value of asset)

Fourth: Speculation (high risk high return)

CREutomo - Investment Analysis for Construction Project


C. Basic of Time Value of Money
14

The “value” of money depends on the amount and when it is received


or spent.

Example: What amount must be paid to settle a current debt of


1000 in two years at an interest rate of 8% ?
Solution: 1000 (1 + 0.08) (1 + 0.08) = 1166

1000

1 2

1166

CREutomo - Investment Analysis for Construction Project


Time Value of Money

P-Pattern “present”
1 2 3 n

F-Pattern “future”
1 2 3 n

A-Pattern “annual”
1 2 3 n

G-Pattern “gradient”
1 2 3 n

CREutomo - Investment Analysis for Construction Project 15


Time Value of Money

To Find Given Multiply By Formula

F P ( F / P )in (1 + i) n

P F 1
( P / F )in
(1 + i) n
A P i (1 + i ) n
( A / P )in
(1 + i ) n − 1
A G 1 n
( A / G )in −
i (1 + i ) n − 1

CREutomo - Investment Analysis for Construction Project 16


Questions

1. What part of the campus can be categorized as property


(space and place) business
2. You are offered an installment of a house worth USD
50.000/ year for eight years. The price of his house is
USD 300.000. What is the interest rate (i) of the house
installments

CREutomo - Investment Analysis for Construction Project 17


2. How to Apply Investment Analysis
How to Apply Investment Analysis
19

1. Stage 1: Determination of Investment Variables


2. Stage 2: Cash flow Analysis
3. Stage 3: Capital Budgeting
4. Stage 4: Sensitivity Analysis and the Probability
5. Stage 5: Comparison and Incremental Analysis

CREutomo - Investment Analysis for Construction Project


The Concept

Variables Cash Flow Capital Budgeting Comparison


▪ CAPEX ▪ Discounted ▪ Net present value ▪ Independent

▪ Rate of Return Cash Flow (NPV) project


(WACC) ▪ Time Value of ▪ Internal rate of ▪ Mutually

▪ Investment Money return (IRR) exclusive


period ▪ Payback Period project
▪ Financing
(PP) ▪ Incremental

▪ Benefit Cost (BC) Analysis


▪ OPEX

▪ Revenue

▪ Terminal value Alternatives and the Sensitivity and


▪ Residual value its probability

CREutomo - Investment Analysis for Construction Project 20


Stage 1: Determination of Investment Variables
21
Variables Components
Development of jetty 17%
LNG tanks 40%
Foundation and structure 6%
Regasification full process 21%
1. CAPEX
Main support facilities 10%
Other support facilities 2%
Indirect cost 4%
Contingency 20% from total CAPEX
Up to 5% of capital cost, consists of: O/M, manpower and management, overhead, lease
2. OPEX
asset for land
3. Land Lease: gross, nett, percentage
Revenue is obtained from the level of store price and volume. Volume is based on
4. Revenue
existing demand and is estimated based on the pessimistic, moderate, and optimistic
scenario. The price level is based on two scenarios, namely at a price level of 1.5 USD /
MMBTU and 1.2 USD / MMBTU
5. Investment The payback period is determined based on the project's technical age and return on
period capital. The analysis in this report plans a period of 20 years
6. Interest rate MARR (Minimum attractive of return) in the form of cost of capital. Based on a safe
rate plus acceptable average risk. The amount of MARR is 14%
7. Capital
NPV, IRR, Payback Period, and Sensitivity
Budgeting
CREutomo - Investment Analysis for Construction Project
CAPEX Estimation
The capital cost or capital expenditure (CAPEX) for the construction of terminal
facilities and LNG regasification consists of the cost of developing docks, LNG
storage, the foundation for LNG storage and lower structures, the cost of
regasification processes, main supporting facilities, other supporting facilities,
and indirect costs. Contingency is set at 20% of the estimated CAPEX value.

Development of jetty
2% 4%
17%
10% LNG Storage

Foundation and structure

Regasification full process


21%

Main support facilities

40% Other support facilities


6%
Indirect cost

CREutomo - Investment Analysis for Construction Project 22


CAPEX estimation

NO KOMPONEN CATATAN USD (103)

1 Jetty Facility development includes dredging 90.000


Full Containment capacity of 125,000 m3 (2
2 LNG Storage 210.000
pieces). LNG storage platform elevated slab.
LNG Storage: foundation and
3 Elevated slab and piling 30.000
bottom structure
Process: regasification unit Integrated OVR 5x100 mmscfd full process
4 110.000
and others including regasification and piping utilities
5 Main supporting facilities Terminal utility, offsite, safety and others 50.000

6 Other supporting facilities Office and others 10.000

7 Direct cost Project Management, engineering, insurance 20.000

SUB TOTAL 520.000

8 Contingency (20%) 104.000

TOTAL CAPEX 624.000

CREutomo - Investment Analysis for Construction Project 23


Analogy Estimate
Suppose that you are proposing to build a petrochemical processing plant
having a capacity of 5 million cubic meters (cu m). Reference made to
previous similar project, but of size 2.5 million cu m shows that the cost
is USD 2 million. Estimate the cost of the proposed plant. Assuming an
exponent of 2/3

Answer:
Proposed cost (USD) =
[Analogous cost] x [(proposed capacity)/(analogous capacity)] assumed an exponent

= USD 2,000,000 x [5/2.5] 2/3


= USD 2,000,000 x 1.5874
= USD 3,174,800

CREutomo - Investment Analysis for Construction Project


24
Parametric Estimate
A statistical model relates the material cost, in US dollars, of constructing an
international-standard urban expressway by the following formula:
C = 937,237 + (83,987xN) + (175,406xL)
C = Material cost of constructing the highway, in US Dollars
N = Number of lanes in the carriageway
L = Length of the proposed expressway, in km
Using the above formula, estimate the material cost of constructing a 17 km, four-
lane, international standard urban expressway

Answer:
C = 937,237 + (83,987xN) + (175,406xL)……….Given N=4, L=17
Material cost
C = 937,237 + (83,987x4) + (175,406x17) USD
= 937,237 + 335,948 + 2,981,902 USD
= 4,255,087 USD
CREutomo - Investment Analysis for Construction Project
25
Cost Index
An office building in Jakarta constructed in 2003 for 25 million USD
has a cost index at that time of 177. The present 2021 cost index is
284. Using the formula, calculate the cost of constructing a similar
building this year.

Answer:
C = (284/177) x 25 Million USD
= 40.11 Million USD

CREutomo - Investment Analysis for Construction Project


26
OPEX estimation

Operating costs are determined based on the calculation of the operation of all major
terminal facilities including the human resources used. Operating costs also include
the use of gas as fuel when needed, electric utilities, water utilities and other utilities.
Operating costs are calculated on an annual basis using the assumption of increasing
costs in accordance with the inflation rate used in the calculation

Year 2019 2039


Components Notes USD (103)
O/M - BOD and Management (A) increase 1%/year 2.400 2.899
O/M - HR (B) increase 1%/year 2.000 2.416
O/M – Maintenance and replacement (C) annually 2.600 2.600
O/M - Utilitas: Power, Fuel, others (D) increase 5%/year 12.770 32.269
O/M - Others (E) increase 5%/year 3.000 7.581
Total O/M (F) (A) + (B) + (C) + (D) + (E) 22.770 47.766
Rental and Lease Land and Facilities (G) annually 9.000 9.000
TOTAL OPEX (ANNUAL) USD 103 31.770 56.766

CREutomo - Investment Analysis for Construction Project 27


Revenue Estimation
2019 2039
Components Descriptions Demand Scenario
103USD
LNG Feed (A) Estimation demand and maximum Pessimist 117,2 500,0
capacity MMSCFD (Million Metric Moderate 168,7 500,0
Standard Cubic Feet per Day) Optimist 220,2 500,0
Regasification (B) Cost 1.5 USD/MMBTU 1,5 1,5
Operation day (C) 30 days/year maintenance 335 335
HHV (D) HHV (BTU/SCF) 1.034 1.034
Revenue (E) LNG feed (MMSCFD) x HHV Pessimist 60.895,4 259.792,5
(BTU/SCF) MMBTU/day * (B) x (C) Moderate 87.654,0 259.792,5
Optimist 114.412,6 259.792,5

103USD Year 2019 Year 2039


REVENUE (1,5 USD) DATA Pessimist Moderate Optimist Pessimist Moderate Optimist
Revenue (A) Annual 60.895 87.654 114.413 259.793 259.793 259.793
Uncertainty (B) 5% Revenue -3.045 -4.383 -5.721 -12.990 -12.990 -12.990
Net Revenue (D) (A) - (B) - (C) 57.851 83.271 108.692 246.803 246.803 246.803
Tax (25%) (E) PPH Badan -14.463 -20.818 -27.173 -61.701 -61.701 -61.701
Net Revenue (F) (D) - (E) 43.388 62.453 81.519 185.102 185.102 185.102

CREutomo - Investment Analysis for Construction Project 28


Stage 2: Cash Flow Analysis
29

Year 2019 2020 2038 2039


VARIABLE SCENARIO 103USD
1 TOTAL CAPEX -624.000 0 0 0
2 TOTAL OPEX (ANNUAL) -31.770 -31.770 -54.815 -56.766
Pessimist 34.710 38.974 148.082 148.082
3 REVENUE Moderate 49.963 65.399 148.082 148.082
Optimist 65.215 84.272 148.082 148.082
Pessimist -621.060 7.204 93.266 91.316
4 NCF (Net Cash Flow) Moderate -605.807 33.629 93.266 91.316
Optimist -590.555 52.502 93.266 91.316
5 DF (Discount Factor, 14%) 1,000000 0,877193 0,082948 0,072762
Pessimist -621.060 6.319 7.736 6.644
6 DCF (Discounted Cash Flow) Moderate -605.807 29.499 7.736 6.644
Optimist -590.555 46.054 7.736 6.644

CREutomo - Investment Analysis for Construction Project


Stage 3: Capital Budgeting
30

1. Net present value (NPV)


2. Internal rate of return (IRR)
3. Payback Period (PP)

CREutomo - Investment Analysis for Construction Project


NET PRESENT VALUE
Sum of the PVs of All Cash Flows
0 1 2 3
10%
CFs:

-100.00 10 60 80

9.09

49.59

60.11
18.79 = NPV

This is net gain in wealth, so accept project if NPV > 0


CREutomo - Investment Analysis for Construction Project 31
INTERNAL RATE OF RETURN
IRR is an estimate of the project’s rate of return.
IRR is the discount rate that forces PV inflows = PV costs.
Same as i that creates NPV= 0. ::i.e., project’s breakeven interest rate.
NPV ($)
iL = 26%, npvL = 5402.82
IRR > MARR MARR > IRR
and NPV > 0 and NPV < 0.
iU = 31% npvU = -4413.57
Accept. Reject.
IRR = iL + [(iU-iL)(npvL)] / [npvL-npvU]

IRR = 0.26 + [(0.310.26)(5402.82)] /


0 [5402.82--4413.57] = 0.2875 = 28.75%
MARR (WACC) (%)
IRR

If IRR > WACC, then the project’s rate of return is greater than
its cost
CREutomo - Investment Analysis for Construction Project 32
PAYBACK PERIOD

◼ The number of years required to recover a project’s cost,


◼ or how long does it take to get the business’s money back?
0 1 2 2.4 3

CF -100 10 60 80
Cumulative -100 -90 -30 0 50

Payback = 2 + $30/$80 = 2.375 years

Acceptable if the Payback Period is less than the period of


Investment
CREutomo - Investment Analysis for Construction Project 33
CAPITAL BUDGETING
Comparison Capital Budgeting
Demand CAPITAL PRICING SCENARIO
Scenario BUDGETING 1,5 USD/MMBTU 1,2 USD/MMBTU
NPV (103 USD) -205.491 -345.360
IRR (%) 9,62 6,03
Pessimist
Payback Period (year) >20 >20
BCR 0,77 0,62
NPV (103 USD) 85.097 -112.889
IRR (%) 15,97 11,24
Moderat
Payback Period (year) 14 >20
BCR 1,09 0,88
NPV (103 USD) 227.642 1.147
IRR (%) 19,76 14,03
Optimist
Payback Period (year) 10 20
BCR 1,25 1,0013

CREutomo - Investment Analysis for Construction Project 34


Stage 4: Sensitivity Analysis
35
IRR Sensitivity According to Price and Demand Levels
IRR Pricing Scenario USD/MMBTU
Price 1,5 Price 1,2 MARR
Pessimist 9,62% 6,03% 14%
Moderate 15,97% 11,24% 14%
Optimist 19,76% 14,03% 14%

20% The most rational condition is seen in


18%
16%
19,76% the moderate demand scenario and
14% 15,97% 14,03% the price level of 1.5 USD / MMBTU
12%
10%
11,24% with an IRR of 15.74%. The
8% 9,62% sensitivity of the rate of return is very
6%
4%
6,03%
much determined by the CAPEX
2% estimate. Capital cost changes are very
0%
Pessimist Moderate Optimist sensitive where changes in rising costs
Price 1,5 Price 1,2 MARR = WACC up to 13% will cause changes in
capital budgeting decisions
CREutomo - Investment Analysis for Construction Project
Stage 5: Comparison and Incremental Analysis
36
◼ Projects are:
◼ independent, if the cash flows of one are unaffected by
the acceptance of the other.
◼ mutually exclusive, if the cash flows of one can be
adversely impacted by the acceptance of the other.

Alternative C Alternative A Alternative B Alternative D


Investment - 190 - 200 - 275 - 350
Cash flow + 19,5 + 22 + 35 + 42
Incremental C – do nothing A – do nothing B–A D–B
Δ investment - 190 - 200 - 75 - 75
Δ cash flow + 19,5 + 22 +13 +7
IRR 9,63 10,49 17,28 8,55
Selected Do nothing A B B

CREutomo - Investment Analysis for Construction Project


Questions

1. Why taking off (Analytical Estimate) should not be


applied for capital expenditure on investment decision?
2. If a bridge project was built 4 years ago with a cost USD
250 million and in that year the cost index is 220, then the
cost of a similar bridge project at this time with a cost
index of 300 is USD 314.9 million. Is it right or wrong?

CREutomo - Investment Analysis for Construction Project 37


2. Tram of Surabaya
Tram (Streetcar)
39
Tram is an LRT train in the city. Trams that depart 5-
10 minutes apart, with a series that is generally one set
(consisting of two trains) so that it is not too long.
It is called light rail because it uses a light train of
about 20 tons like a bus, not as heavy as a 40-ton train.
The location of the rails mixes with city traffic, or is
separated like a bus-way, it can even be elevated or
sub-way, only for part of the track.
Tram characteristics include operating in mixed traffic,
urban circulators and pedestrian accelerators, short
routes, frequent stops, slow speeds, permanent
infrastructure, costs and capacities between buses and
LRT systems, cheaper than LRT, and capacity similar
to BRT

CREutomo - Investment Analysis for Construction Project


Planning and Design
40

CREutomo - Investment Analysis for Construction Project


Planning and Design
41

CREutomo - Investment Analysis for Construction Project


the Alternatives
42
Alternative 1 Alternative 2 Alternative 3

Route length 5,28 Km 6,86 Km 9,4 Km

CAPEX USD 54 Million USD 63 Million USD 95 Million

CREutomo - Investment Analysis for Construction Project


Capex
43

Comparison Length CAPEX Year CAPEX/km


km Million USD Million USD/km

Saint Louis 11.1 271 2012 34.35


Shenzhen 11.7 226 2017 21.29
Izmir Turkey 21.6 163.42 2017 8.34
Zeytinburnur Turkey 5.2 48 2008 9.71
Dubai 10.6 866 2014 104.27
Dijon 20 461 2012 32.43
Alternative 1 5.38 54 2018 10.04
Alternative 2 6.86 63 2018 9.18
Alternative 3 9.4 95 2018 10.1

CREutomo - Investment Analysis for Construction Project


Sensitivity
44

More 50%
Government Subsidies Sensitivity
60%
50%

29,74%
40%

15,78%
30%

10,17%
8,00%
6,86%
20%

4,57%
2,83%
1,45%

10%
0%
0%

0%

0%

CREutomo - Investment Analysis for Construction Project


Sensitivity
45

Rate Sensitivity at 0% Gov. Subsidies Rate Sensitivity at 90% Gov. Subsidies


8,60% 16,00%
8,45%
13,67%
8,40% 14,00%
12,00%
8,20%
8,00% 10,00%
8,00% 8,00%
8,00% 6,68%
7,80% 7,68%
6,00%
7,60%
4,00%
7,40% 2,00%

7,20% 0,00%
Rate IDR 20.000 MARR Rate IDR 19.000 Rate IDR 3500 MARR Harga IDR 3000
Government Subsidies 0% Government Subsidies 90%

CREutomo - Investment Analysis for Construction Project


Sensitivity
46

Demand Sensitivity at 0% Gov. Subsidies Demand Sensitivity at 90% Gov. Subsidies


10,00% 9,26% 10,00% 9,20%
9,00% 9,00%
8,00% 8,00%
7,67%
8,00% 8,00%
7,00% 7,00%
5,89%
6,00% 6,00%
5,00% 5,00%
4,00% 4,00%
3,00% 3,00%
2,00% 2,00%
1,00% 1,00%
0,00% 0,00%
Demand 5000 MARR Demand 4500 Demand 1500 MARR Demand 1400
Government Subsidies 0% Government Subsidies 90%

CREutomo - Investment Analysis for Construction Project


Sensitivity
47

OPEX Sensitivity at 0% Gov. Subsidies OPEX Sensitivity at 90% Gov. Subsidies


8,50% 8,45% 16,00%
13,67%
8,40% 14,00%
8,30% 12,00% 10,63%
8,20% 10,00% 8,95%
8,08% 8,00%
8,10% 8,00% 7,16%
8,00%
8,00% 6,00%
7,90%
7,90% 4,00%
7,80%
2,00%
7,70%
0,00%
7,60% OPEX up to MARR Opex up to Opex up to Opex up to 5%
OPEX up to 15% MARR OPEX up to 10% OPEX up to 5% 20% 15% 10%
Government Subsidies 0% Government Subsidies 90%

CREutomo - Investment Analysis for Construction Project


Result
48
CAPEX with % OPEX RATES PEAK HOUR NPV – IRR
Government (IDR) PASSENGER (Million IDR - %)
subsidies

1 70% 19.497 10.000 2500 53.028 – 10,17


2 80% 19.497 10.000 2500 140.861 – 15,78
3 90% 19.497 10.000 2500 228.694 – 29,74
4 0% (no subsidies) 19.497 20.000 2500 34.978 – 8.45
5 90% 19.497 3.500 2500 49.544 – 13,67
6 0% (no subsidies) 19.497 10.000 5000 99.481 – 9,26%
7 90% 19.497 10.000 1500 9.548 – 9,2
8 0% (no subsidies) 21.447 (>10%) 20.000 2500 6.083 – 8,08%
9 90% 22.422 (>15%) 3.500 2500 7.552 – 8.95%

These results indicate that the development of the Surabaya tram pilot project still
provides opportunities for market and financial receipts with several conditions
for subsidized financing. These subsidies are expected to get returns equivalent to
the benefits of regional economic development and increasing land value

CREutomo - Investment Analysis for Construction Project


Financing Model
49

1. Determination of the best use


and highest land productivity
(Highest and best use)
2. Investment analysis (Project
investment)
3. Project financing
4. Determination of pricing
5. Asset valuation
6. Measuring the asset
performance

CREutomo - Investment Analysis for Construction Project


PPP

CREutomo - Investment Analysis for Construction Project 50


PPP

CREutomo - Investment Analysis for Construction Project 51


Q&A

Thank You

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