Коефіцієнт сезонності для першого року 1

k= B= q=
0.5 0.9 0.5

Коефіцієнт
Експоненційно Значення сезонності
згладжений ряд тренду минулого
періоду
Рік Місяць Продажі грн.
2006 1 17,986,229.37 ₴ 17,986,229.37 ₴ 1.00
2 23,571,964.82 ₴ 20,779,097.10 ₴ 2,513,580.95 ₴ 1.00
3 25,537,589.45 ₴ 24,415,133.75 ₴ 3,523,791.08 ₴ 1.00
4 24,630,951.38 ₴ 26,284,938.11 ₴ 2,035,203.03 ₴ 1.00
5 24,429,696.26 ₴ 26,374,918.70 ₴ 284,502.84 ₴ 1.00
6 26,116,377.22 ₴ 26,387,899.38 ₴ 40,132.89 ₴ 1.00
7 27,931,500.84 ₴ 27,179,766.56 ₴ 716,693.75 ₴ 1.00
8 25,914,893.36 ₴ 26,905,676.83 ₴ -175,011.38 ₴ 1.00
9 24,904,130.08 ₴ 25,817,397.77 ₴ -996,952.30 ₴ 1.00
10 22,360,354.45 ₴ 23,590,399.96 ₴ -2,103,993.26 ₴ 1.00
11 23,825,298.74 ₴ 22,655,852.72 ₴ -1,051,491.84 ₴ 1.00
12 22,241,744.10 ₴ 21,923,052.49 ₴ -764,669.39 ₴ 1.00
2007 1 21,149,853.33 ₴ 21,154,118.21 ₴ -768,507.79 ₴ 1.00
2 23,770,186.15 ₴ 22,077,898.29 ₴ 754,551.29 ₴ 1.04
3 29,608,386.44 ₴ 26,220,418.01 ₴ 3,803,722.88 ₴ 1.06
4 28,588,548.32 ₴ 29,306,344.60 ₴ 3,157,706.22 ₴ 0.99
5 29,712,035.85 ₴ 31,088,043.34 ₴ 1,919,299.48 ₴ 0.98
6 31,191,793.01 ₴ 32,099,567.92 ₴ 1,102,302.07 ₴ 0.99
7 28,311,729.80 ₴ 30,756,799.89 ₴ -1,098,261.01 ₴ 0.96
8 27,438,261.91 ₴ 28,548,400.39 ₴ -2,097,385.65 ₴ 0.98
9 26,166,318.55 ₴ 26,308,666.65 ₴ -2,225,498.94 ₴ 1.00
10 25,916,207.47 ₴ 24,999,687.59 ₴ -1,400,631.05 ₴ 1.02
11 23,168,085.77 ₴ 23,383,571.16 ₴ -1,594,567.89 ₴ 1.00
12 27,707,908.82 ₴ 24,748,456.04 ₴ 1,068,939.61 ₴ 1.06
2,008 1 25,379,304.81 ₴ 25,599,629.54 ₴ 872,950.11 ₴ 1.00
2 27,823,569.50 ₴ 26,634,579.96 ₴ 1,018,750.39 ₴ 1.04
3 28,518,039.22 ₴ 27,220,376.83 ₴ 629,092.23 ₴ 1.06
4 33,971,885.66 ₴ 31,121,273.60 ₴ 3,573,716.31 ₴ 1.04
5 31,577,080.98 ₴ 33,493,356.52 ₴ 2,492,246.26 ₴ 0.96
6 29,328,611.01 ₴ 32,867,434.00 ₴ -314,105.64 ₴ 0.94
7 34,312,920.34 ₴ 34,143,295.19 ₴ 1,116,864.51 ₴ 0.98
8 31,364,477.73 ₴ 33,623,275.94 ₴ -356,330.88 ₴ 0.96
9 29,046,432.43 ₴ 31,196,085.65 ₴ -2,220,104.34 ₴ 0.96
10 27,244,171.43 ₴ 27,864,869.79 ₴ -3,220,104.71 ₴ 1.00
11 24,353,445.57 ₴ 24,555,470.79 ₴ -3,300,469.57 ₴ 0.99
12 25,447,524.88 ₴ 22,633,421.20 ₴ -2,059,891.59 ₴ 1.09
2,009 1 24,255,100.63 ₴ 22,467,345.50 ₴ -355,457.29 ₴ 1.04
2 22,391,875.89 ₴ 21,805,938.91 ₴ -630,811.66 ₴ 1.03
3 27,902,910.63 ₴ 23,797,430.23 ₴ 1,729,261.03 ₴ 1.11
4 24,102,028.42 ₴ 24,354,478.93 ₴ 674,269.93 ₴ 1.01
 5 24,939,643.09 ₴ 25,499,338.16 ₴ 1,097,800.30 ₴ 0.97
6 25,401,741.26 ₴ 26,823,151.66 ₴ 1,301,212.18 ₴ 0.94
7 22,817,313.62 ₴ 25,672,748.87 ₴ -905,241.29 ₴ 0.94
8 23,554,471.31 ₴ 24,694,170.16 ₴ -971,244.97 ₴ 0.96
9 21,219,769.29 ₴ 22,865,358.99 ₴ -1,743,054.55 ₴ 0.95
10 21,144,903.01 ₴ 21,154,497.37 ₴ -1,714,080.91 ₴ 1.00
11 19,185,427.05 ₴ 19,374,880.24 ₴ -1,773,063.50 ₴ 0.99
12 20,507,489.71 ₴ 18,190,248.72 ₴ -1,243,474.72 ₴ 1.11
2,010 1 16,116,507.93 ₴ 16,239,564.41 ₴ -1,879,963.35 ₴ 1.02
2 20,363,081.13 ₴ 17,024,868.07 ₴ 518,776.95 ₴ 1.12
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
8.00
9.00
10.00
11.00
12.00
 Номер Прогноз за відхилення
методом Проноз для похибки моделі Точність
періоду для Похибка моделі
Хольта- оцінки моделі від прогнозованої прогнозу
прогнозу
Вінтерса моделі

17,986,229 - ₴ - 98.65%
17,986,229 5,585,735.45 ₴ 0.06
23,292,678 2,244,911.40 ₴ 0.01
27,938,925 - 3,307,973.45 ₴ 0.02
28,320,141 - 3,890,444.88 ₴ 0.03
26,659,422 - 543,044.31 ₴ 0.00 40,000,000
26,428,032 1,503,468.57 ₴ 0.00
27,896,460 - 1,981,566.95 ₴ 0.01 35,000,000
26,730,665 - 1,826,535.38 ₴ 0.01 30,000,000
24,820,445 - 2,460,091.02 ₴ 0.01
21,486,407 2,338,892.03 ₴ 0.01 25,000,000
21,604,361 637,383.22 ₴ 0.00 20,000,000
21,158,383 - 8,529.77 ₴ 0.00
20,385,610 3,384,575.72 ₴ 0.02 15,000,000
22,832,450 6,775,936.86 ₴ 0.05 10,000,000
30,024,141 - 1,435,592.56 ₴ 0.00
32,464,051 - 2,752,014.97 ₴ 0.01 5,000,000
33,007,343 - 1,815,549.81 ₴ 0.00 -
33,201,870 - 4,890,140.18 ₴ 0.03 1
29,658,539 - 2,220,276.97 ₴ 0.01
26,451,015 - 284,696.19 ₴ 0.00
24,083,168 1,833,039.76 ₴ 0.01
23,599,057 - 430,970.77 ₴ 0.00
21,789,003 5,918,905.56 ₴ 0.05
25,814,793 - 435,488.31 ₴ 0.00
27,487,151 336,418.07 ₴ 0.00
29,439,889 - 921,849.42 ₴ 0.00
27,508,412 6,463,473.21 ₴ 0.04
33,927,161 - 2,350,080.52 ₴ 0.01
35,476,767 - 6,148,155.84 ₴ 0.04
31,259,384 3,053,536.25 ₴ 0.01
34,574,593 - 3,210,115.36 ₴ 0.01
33,176,946 - 4,130,514.03 ₴ 0.02
29,507,129 - 2,262,957.77 ₴ 0.01
24,531,211 - 177,765.71 ₴ 0.00
22,525,852 2,921,673.22 ₴ 0.01
20,483,959 3,771,141.63 ₴ 0.02
23,029,158 - 637,282.05 ₴ 0.00
22,363,878 5,539,032.91 ₴ 0.04
26,539,469 - 2,437,440.25 ₴ 0.01
 24,035,803 903,839.96 ₴ 0.00
24,977,245 424,495.82 ₴ 0.00
27,635,275 - 4,817,961.75 ₴ 0.04
23,694,793 - 140,322.16 ₴ 0.00
22,873,489 - 1,653,719.40 ₴ 0.01
21,080,644 64,258.88 ₴ 0.00
19,315,658 - 130,231.28 ₴ 0.00
19,222,281 1,285,208.80 ₴ 0.00
17,584,122 - 1,467,613.77 ₴ 0.01
14,850,366 5,512,714.66 ₴ 0.07
1 19,549,382 19,549,382
2 18,327,123 18,327,123
3 18,008,697 18,008,697
4 18,012,264 18,012,264
5 18,357,124 18,357,124
6 19,236,739 19,236,739
7 19,543,187 19,543,187
8 21,149,400 21,149,400
9 21,518,186 21,518,186
10 24,649,936 24,649,936
40,000,000

35,000,000

30,000,000

25,000,000

20,000,000

15,000,000

10,000,000

5,000,000

-
1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 1 5 17 19 21 2 3 2 5 27 29 31 33 3 5 3 7 3 9 41 43 45 47 4 9
Дані Експоненційно згладжений ряд Прогноз
45 47 4 9