Kashmir:

Why does Kashmir Matter?

1. A geopolitical hotspot. CAR

countries. Here, many
races and cultures cross
paths.
2. Home to Muslims, Hindus, Buddhists and numerous indigenous spiritual traditions.
3. Rivers that feed hundreds of millions downstream flow through it.
4. Question of identity and popular sovereignty.
5. Claims of two 2 nuclear states

Why is Kashmir struggle not bearing fruits?

First, not acceptance of the idea that its a territorial dispute between the two countries

Second, Kashmir’s independence could cause a domino effect, set a precedent for other border
areas of three Asian giants (Pakistan, India and China).

Why does Pakistan want Gilgit-Baltistan as the fifth province?

 Strategic Importance of the region– 

 CPEC and heavy investments
 Water Ways
 The region is minerally rich and has 50-100 gold and uranium mines (Mineral
Department of the PoK)
 Three glaciers 
 Social integration with Pak

India’s response:

 Opposed the change in the status quo

 It called upon Pakistan to immediately vacate all areas under its illegal occupation 

What do the people of Gilgit-Baltistan want?

 The people have been demanding for years for the same constitutional

rights as Pakistani citizens have.

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About Status of Gilgit-Baltistan:

 It has been under the control of Pakistan since April 1949

 Until 2009, the region was called Northern Areas and was administered autonomously.
 In 2009, the Gilgit-Baltistan (Empowerment and Self-Governance) Order was passed and
the region was named as Gilgit-Baltistan.
 At present, it does not have any constitutional framework and is under the direct
control of the Pakistani’s Central Government.

Repercussions of GB as a 5th province of Pak:

This will have implications on the dispute over Jammu and Kashmir.

1: Will harm the Kashmir’s movement for self determination.

2: If Pakistan imposes its sovereign writ over Gilgit-Baltistan, Delhi can integrate Kashmir with
India.

3: Will undermine the demand for implementations of the United Nations resolution which call
for referendum in the state

4: By granting GB a status of province, Islamabad will no longer be in a position to term Delhi’s

5th august move ‘illegal’.

The scrapping of article 370 is a violation of Article 2(4) of the independence act of India:

Under Article 2 (4) of the independence act of India, the princely states were given choice to
join “either of the new Dominions”.

Modi government’s unilateral decision of changing the demographics of Kashmir has made it
‘graveyard of Indian hegemonic ambitions’:

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A: the illegality of India’s occupation of Kashmir is being widely acknowledged. UNSC resolution
39 (formation of UNCIP) and 47 (plebiscite)

B: all bilateral ties closed by india

C: the BJP’s fascist plan to impose a ‘final solution’ by changing the demographics of Kashmir

D: Invoke Kashmir freedom struggle

Options for Pakistan after fascist move by Modi:

“We want peace in the whole world and especially in our region.” Gen Bajwa

1: persuasively mobilize world opinion against human rights violations and the plight of the
people of Kashmir

2: The international community should be involved

3: if no immediate solution can be found, it is necessary to keep the slow-moving peace process
on track.

4: Pakistan should launch a campaign to persuade India to jointly start a cross-border

movement of Kashmiris and trade from one part to other. This will create a better environment
in Kashmir.

5: composite dialogue should be resumed in good spirit by both sides.

6: Pakistan’s embassies worldwide should be instructed to hold regular seminars, workshops on

Kashmir as well as use print, electronic and social media to highlight the plight of Kashmiris.

7: Pakistan should approach international civil society through diplomats, delegations, social
media and main media to draw their attention towards the unprecedented difficulties being
faced by Kashmiris

8: International Human Rights Organization should be requested to further emphasize the

severity of Kashmir issue.

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The New Political Map of Pakistan And Kashmir:

1: unveiled on August 4, 2020.

2: supports our principled stance on Kashmir dispute.” Imran Khan.

3: there are various modification in the new political map; the greatest change has been the
inclusion of the entire Jammu and Kashmir region as part of Pakistan.

4: Ladakh as a part of Kashmir and a disputed land.

5: Gilgit Baltistan as a part of Pakistan

Last year New Delhi had also released a political map which showed Azad Kashmir and Gilgit
Baltistan as part of its territory. The questionable move was swiftly rejected by China, Nepal
and Pakistan, reflecting the serious border disputes India has with nearly all its neighbors.

Indian foreign ministry’s response on Pakistan’s new political map:

1: Map has no legal validity

2: map has no international credibility

What are the possible solutions for Kashmir issue?

1: implementation of UN Security Council resolutions

2: Third part mediations: major powers like USA, Russia and China. As Kashmir issue owing to
current situation cannot be resolved by bilateral negotiations.

3: Demilitarization of both parts of Kashmir as suggested by former president of Pakistan G.

Musharraf in his famous four-point formula.

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4: a semi-independent or autonomous federal Kashmir where security of borders is the
responsibility of India and Kashmir under an international agreement

Conclusion + Analysis:

1:The International community is favoring India due to its big economic market and its alliance
with the US. Pakistan should improve relations with all, specially with those that are prepared
to cooperate with it.

2: The Kashmir dispute cannot be resolved militarily; UN could not enforce its resolutions on
Kashmir. India is not prepared to grant self determination and plebiscite under UN auspices to
the people of Kashmir.

3: Proxy wars, confrontation and half-hearted international pressure cannot work. Thus, legal
and political recourse, and not warfare, should be a preferred option for the plight of Kashmir.

4: The humanitarian side of Kashmir issue should be raised persistently in all forums. Internal as
well as international, by Pakistan

Human Rights:

1- Prisoner tortured, water boarded, sleep deprived, solitary confinement

2- AFSPA, rights violations, UNCAT
3- Reluctant in reporting
4- Doctors without borders said 19 pc population suffers PTSD (2015)
5- UNHCHR report 2019: deadly attacks, pellet firing shortguns, forced rape,. India
rejected the report

Bilateral Efforts

1- Bogra Nehru dialogues 1953

2- Shimla Agreement 1972 (( India not only violated the agreement through
‘Operation Meghdoot 1984’ but also twisted interpretation of its articles so as to
avoid the Kashmir question
3- Composite Dialogue 1997-98
4- Lahore, Agra summit 2001
5- Musharaf 4 points 2006
6- Conprehensive Dialogue 2015 (Uri attack, ceased to exist)

Onset of Atrocities by India

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 Draconian laws: AFSPA

State sponsored terrorism

Mass killing: 100,000 ksh died since 1990s

Rape as a tool of instilling fear

Curfew and eco loss of $3b to ksh

6- Expanded its tentacles into Valley: Special status abolished in Aug 2019
Done in three steps
a- Constitutional: presidential order; Article 370/35(A); Parliament vote 2/3
b- Administrative: 80k additional, now 1 Million troops deployed. Ladakh (union
territory) and Kashmir (normal state of india); curfew; leadership arrested ,
media blackout
c- Diplomatic:
I- Domestic narrative: will benefit Kashmir; counter terrorism;
II- Foreign Narrative: internal issue; OIC diplomacy; use of eco and
political clout

7- Demographic change by passing domicile law in 2020

8- Completed siege stage
9- Political leadership in Jail: RSS rule and ideology

Why Special Status Revoked?

7- To achieve electoral promise

8- Hindutva; RSS ideology
9- Change demography

Legal Standing of India’s Move

Kashmir’s Response

a- 20 protests a day despite lockdown

b- Picture will be clearer when curfew is lifted
c- Political agitation

Pakistan Reponses

i- Severing relations with India (trade cut, medicines, air space)

ii- National consensus (public mobilization)
iii- UNSC and OIC, EU council
iv- Human rights watch report, UNCHR, genocide watch
v- Intl media (Aljazeera, NYT)

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 vi- PM speech in UNGA

World Response:

I- Turkey and Malaysia

II- Lukewarm: USA, French
III- ICJ stance over kahsmir is the most vigorous (first violation of HR; second UN charter and
resolution)
IV- Intl Media and EU council support

International Relationships

A. Realism ( self-help, alliances, counter-alliances, balance of power etc )

B. Liberalism ( mutual benefits, negotiations, international and regional institutions etc )
C. Constructivism ( power of ideas, people-people contact, lobbying etc- Victoria Schofield )

Importance of Kashmir

A. Strategic ( water resources, military tactical advantage, geographical location )

B. Political ( diplomatic battles, political stature on national level, ideology )
C. Economic ( CARs, CPEC, tourism )
D. Social ( religious sensitivities, cultural affinities )

Possible Trajectories

1- Continuation of aggression and siege and status quo (most unlikely)

2- Reversal of previous presidential ordinances in the wake of Kashmir uprising after curfew lift
(likely)
3- Resolution of the issue as per UNSC (likely but futuristic)

Critical Analysis

10- The demand of kashmirs to decide their fate and aspiration has evolved during time,
from semi -autonomy to self determination
11- Pak has maintained principle stance since inception of the issue
12- Importance of the region cannot be denied
13- “Just a matter of time” issue, liberated in accordance to the wishes of its people

Books

The Kashmir Saga by Sardar Ibrahim

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For Essay

1—introduction

Every society aspires for life on its own principles. Distinct culture and civilizations. Some are blessed
to have enjoy freedom. Some become the victims of their historical baggage or geography. Kashmir is
one such example. The valley is in tatters since the British left the subcontinent. A number of
stakeholders have failed to address the Kashmir question till date.

2- Geography of Kashmir (Ladakh, aksai chin, Jammu, Kashmir, Gilgit Baltistan, Azad Kashmir)

4- Social Background (muslims 71p , budhists 2 pc , hindus 21pc)

5- Historical background
Treaty of Amritsar = purchase on 75 lakh in 1800s
6- Early Political Consciousness
A- (1945 onwards)
B- Independence movement 1980s
C- Armed Struggle
7- Stance over Kashmir Issue
a- Pak, inida, UN
8- Armed Struggle in 1990s
A- Mujahhideens 1990 – present
B- Educated Freedom fighters (Burhan wani)
9- Current Picture of Kashmir Issue
10- Response from the World
11- Critical Analysis
12- Way Forward