Chapter 18

Hypothesis Testing

1
6. If 𝛼 increases (same as 𝛽 decreases ), means that is made less significant

7. If 𝛼 decreases (same as 𝛽 increases ), means that is made more significant

8. If 𝛼 = 0.05 (𝑜𝑟 5%), then 𝛽 = 0.95 (𝑜𝑟 95%) means that:

(a) 𝛼 = 0.05 → The probability of rejecting a true 𝑯𝟎 is 0.05 (making Type (I) error) & Consequently, the

probability of making correct decision is 0.95

(b) 𝛽 = 0.95 → The probability of accepting a false 𝑯𝟎 is 0.95 (making Type (II) error) & Consequently, the

probability of making correct decision is 0.05

9. 𝛼 + 𝛽 = 1 (𝑎𝑙𝑤𝑎𝑦𝑠)
8
 Comparisons between 𝑯𝑨 and 𝑯𝟎

𝑯𝑨 𝑯𝟎
1 Prediction intended for evaluation Opposite of HA

2 HA claims that the results are ‘real’ or ‘significant’ effect, H𝟎 claims that the results are ‘not real’ or ‘not significant’
which means that the independent variable influenced effect, which means that the independent variable did not
the dependent variable. influence the dependent variable.

3 ‘real’ or ‘significant’ effect, means that the results in the ‘Not real’ or ‘not significant’ effect, means that the results in
sample data can be generalized to the population. the sample data cannot be generalized to the population.

4 There are differences in the data in each direction There are no differences in the data in each direction

9
Solution
We can apply the steps for hypothesis testing to make our decision.
1. 𝐻𝐴 : 𝜇 < 30 , therefore 𝐻0 : 𝜇 ≥ 30 (one-tail hypothesis, 𝐻𝐴 to the left) (directional)

(𝐻𝐴 𝑠𝑢𝑝𝑝𝑜𝑟𝑡𝑠 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑟𝑒𝑠𝑒𝑎𝑟𝑐ℎ𝑒𝑟 / 𝑖𝑛𝑣𝑒𝑠𝑡𝑖𝑔𝑎𝑡𝑜𝑟 𝑐𝑙𝑎𝑖𝑚 𝑡ℎ𝑎𝑡 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑒𝑥𝑒𝑟𝑐𝑖𝑠𝑒 𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑔𝑟𝑎𝑚 𝑟𝑒𝑑𝑢𝑐𝑒𝑠
𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑡𝑖𝑚𝑒 𝑡𝑜 𝑙𝑒𝑎𝑣𝑒 ℎ𝑜𝑠𝑝𝑖𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑏𝑒𝑓𝑜𝑟𝑒 30 𝑑𝑎𝑦𝑠)

2. Let 𝛼 = 0.01 (𝑑𝑒𝑝𝑒𝑛𝑑𝑠 𝑜𝑛 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑟𝑒𝑠𝑒𝑎𝑟𝑐ℎ𝑒𝑟 𝑝𝑟𝑒𝑓𝑒𝑟𝑒𝑛𝑐𝑒, 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑖𝑠 𝑔𝑖𝑣𝑒𝑛 𝑡𝑜 𝑢𝑠)

3. 𝑧𝑐𝑟𝑖𝑡 = 2.33, because 𝑛 = 64 ≥ 30 we use the 𝑧-table
(By looking at the second column where 𝛼 = 0.01, then the corresponding 𝑧 = 2.33)
𝑥ҧ −𝜇 24−30
4. 𝑧𝑜𝑏𝑡 = 𝜎 → 𝑧𝑜𝑏𝑡 = 8 =−6
ൗ 𝑛 ൗ
64

5. 𝑧𝑜𝑏𝑡 ≥ 𝑧𝑐𝑟𝑖𝑡 → −6 ≥ 2.33 → 6 ≥ 2.33 → 𝑟𝑒𝑗𝑒𝑐𝑡 𝐻0 → 𝑟𝑒𝑡𝑎𝑖𝑛 (𝑎𝑐𝑐𝑒𝑝𝑡) 𝐻𝐴

12
Example 3

A researcher hypothesizes that males now have different weights than in the previous years. To investigate
this hypothesis, he randomly selects 100 adult males and recorded their weights. The measurements for
the sample have a mean of 𝑋ത = 70 𝐾𝑔. In a census taken several years ago, the mean weight of weight of
males was 𝜇 = 68 𝑘𝑔, with 𝜎 = 8 𝑘𝑔.
Do these results show that adult males now have more weight than previous?

17
Solution
We can apply the steps for hypothesis testing to make our decision.

1. 𝐻𝐴 : 𝜇 ≠ 68 , therefore 𝐻0 : 𝜇 = 68 (one-tail hypothesis, 𝐻𝐴 to the right) (non-directional)

(HA supports the researcher claim that adult males weight now is different than previous = 68)

2. Let 𝛼 = 0.01 (depends on the researcher preference, and is given to us)

0.01
Now, since we have non-directional hypothesis, we divide 𝛼 by 2 → = 0.005
2
3. 𝑧𝑐𝑟𝑖𝑡 = 2.58, because 𝑛 = 100 ≥ 30 we use the 𝑧-table
(By looking at the second column where 𝛼 = 0.005, then the corresponding 𝑧 = 2.58)
𝑥ҧ −𝜇 70−68
4. 𝑧𝑜𝑏𝑡 = 𝜎 → 𝑧𝑜𝑏𝑡 = 8ൗ = 2.5
ൗ 𝑛 100
5. 𝑧𝑜𝑏𝑡 < 𝑧𝑐𝑟𝑖𝑡 → 2.5 < 2.58 → 2.5 < 2.58 → 𝑟𝑒𝑡𝑎𝑖𝑛 (𝑎𝑐𝑐𝑒𝑝𝑡 )𝐻0 → 𝑟𝑒𝑗𝑒𝑐𝑡 𝐻𝐴

18
Conclusion:
The researcher/investigator can accept 𝐻0 and reject 𝐻𝐴 at a 0.01 level of significance. That is, the
mean adult males’ weight now is same as previous mean weight = 68 kg.
Note that, the independent variable is time, and the dependent variable is weight,
because the weight depends on the running time.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
HW 3 (a): Show that if we worked example 3 above with 𝛼 = 0.05, 𝑿 ഥ = 𝟕𝟎
Answer: reject 𝐻0 and accept (retain) 𝐻𝐴 𝐻𝑖𝑛𝑡: 𝑧𝑐𝑟𝑖𝑡 = 1.96

ഥ = 𝟔𝟔
HW 3 (b): Show that if we worked example 3 above with 𝛼 = 0.05, 𝑿
Answer: reject 𝐻0 and accept (retain) 𝐻𝐴 𝐻𝑖𝑛𝑡: 𝑧𝑐𝑟𝑖𝑡 = 1.96

19
Example 4

Work example 2 but with small sample size 𝑛 = 16 𝑛𝑜𝑡𝑖𝑐𝑒 𝑡ℎ𝑎𝑡 𝑛 = 16 < 30

20
Solution
We can apply the steps for hypothesis testing to make our decision.

1. 𝐻𝐴 : 𝜇 > 68 , therefore 𝐻0 : 𝜇 ≤ 68 (one-tail hypothesis, 𝐻𝐴 to the right) (directional)

(𝐻𝐴 𝑠𝑢𝑝𝑝𝑜𝑟𝑡𝑠 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑟𝑒𝑠𝑒𝑎𝑟𝑐ℎ𝑒𝑟 𝑐𝑙𝑎𝑖𝑚 𝑡ℎ𝑎𝑡 𝑎𝑑𝑢𝑙𝑡 𝑚𝑎𝑙𝑒𝑠 𝑤𝑒𝑖𝑔ℎ𝑡 𝑛𝑜𝑤 𝑖𝑠 𝑚𝑜𝑟𝑒 𝑡ℎ𝑎𝑛 𝑝𝑟𝑒𝑣𝑖𝑜𝑢𝑠 = 68)

2. Let 𝛼 = 0.01 (𝑑𝑒𝑝𝑒𝑛𝑑𝑠 𝑜𝑛 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑟𝑒𝑠𝑒𝑎𝑟𝑐ℎ𝑒𝑟 𝑝𝑟𝑒𝑓𝑒𝑟𝑒𝑛𝑐𝑒, 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑖𝑠 𝑔𝑖𝑣𝑒𝑛 𝑡𝑜 𝑢𝑠)

3. 𝑡𝑐𝑟𝑖𝑡 = 2.602, because 𝑛 = 16 < 30 we use the 𝑡-table (we have small sample)
(By looking at the directional row where 𝑝 = 𝛼 = 0.01,
and using 𝑑. 𝑓. = 𝑛 − 1 → 16 − 1 = 15)
(𝑑. 𝑓. 𝑚𝑒𝑎𝑛𝑠 𝑑𝑒𝑔𝑟𝑒𝑒𝑠 𝑜𝑓 𝑓𝑟𝑒𝑒𝑑𝑜𝑚 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑎𝑙𝑤𝑎𝑦𝑠 = 𝑛 – 1)
𝑥ҧ −𝜇 70−68
4. 𝑡𝑜𝑏𝑡 = 𝑠 → 𝑡𝑜𝑏𝑡 = 8ൗ = 1
ൗ 𝑛 16

5. 𝑧𝑜𝑏𝑡 < 𝑡𝑐𝑟𝑖𝑡 → 1 < 2.602 → 1 < 2.602 → 𝑟𝑒𝑡𝑎𝑖𝑛 𝑜𝑟 (𝑎𝑐𝑐𝑒𝑝𝑡 )𝐻0 → 𝑟𝑒𝑗𝑒𝑐𝑡 𝐻𝐴

Clearly, when 𝑛 = 16 (small sample), the investigation did not show a significant weight
increase for the males.

21
 Conclusion:

The researcher/investigator can accept 𝐻0 and reject 𝐻𝐴 at a 0.01 level of significance. That is, adult males’ weight now
has not increased more than previous weight 68 kg.
Note that, the independent variable is time, and the dependent variable is weight,
because the weight depends on the running time.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

HW 4: Do the example 4 above with 𝑋ത = 72 and use the following information:

(1) Sample size 𝑛 = 25, 𝛼 = 0.01, 𝑋ത = 72 𝐻𝑖𝑛𝑡: 𝑡𝑐𝑟𝑖𝑡 = 2.492 & 𝑡𝑜𝑏𝑡 = 2 Answer: Accept 𝐻0
(2) Sample size 𝑛 = 25, 𝛼 = 0.05, 𝑋ത = 72 𝐻𝑖𝑛𝑡: 𝑡𝑐𝑟𝑖𝑡 = 1.711 & 𝑡𝑜𝑏𝑡 = 2 Answer: Reject 𝐻0
(3) Sample size 𝑛 = 16, 𝛼 = 0.05, 𝑋ത = 72 𝐻𝑖𝑛𝑡: 𝑡𝑐𝑟𝑖𝑡 = 1.753 & 𝑡𝑜𝑏𝑡 = 2 Answer: Reject 𝐻0

22
Important facts
1 Hypothesis
2 Alternative Hypothesis (𝐻𝐴 )
3 Null Hypothesis (𝐻0 )
4 Directional Hypothesis
5 Non-directional Hypothesis
6 𝐻𝐴 and 𝐻0 are mutual exclusive
A proposition advanced by the researcher which is evaluated by using the data collected from a sample.
This is the hypothesis for which the researcher is trying to gain support in a statistical analysis by rejecting the null
hypothesis (𝐻0 )
This is the hypothesis for which the researcher is trying to reject in a statistical analysis by accepting the alternative
hypothesis (𝐻𝐴 )
Is the hypothesis that asserts (assures) that differences between groups in the data will occur in one direction,
either to left or right direction.
Is the hypothesis that asserts (assures) that differences between groups in the data will occur in two directions, to
left and right directions at the same time.
If we reject, 𝐻0 then we must accept 𝐻𝐴 , conversely,
if we accept 𝐻0 then we must reject 𝐻𝐴 .
(We can’t reject both or accept both)
25
7 Type (I) Error
8 Type (II) Error
9
Degrees of Freedom 𝐝. 𝐟.
10 Statistical Significance
Rejecting 𝐻0 while it is true, and its probability is α
Accepting 𝐻0 while it is false, and its probability is 𝛽 = 1 − 𝛼
𝑑. 𝑓. = 𝑛 − 1 (𝑛 𝑖𝑠 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑠𝑎𝑚𝑝𝑙𝑒 𝑠𝑖𝑧𝑒)
1. Demonstrates that the result obtained is probably not due to chance but is ‘real’
2. The independent variable must have had a very large effect on the dependent variable.
3. If the obtained probability p is ≤ 𝛼 → can reject 𝐻0 (means accept 𝐻𝐴 )
26
Important graphs to illustrate directional and non-directional of 𝐻𝐴
1. 𝛼 = 0.05, (one-tail hypothesis, 𝐻𝐴 to the right) (directional hypothesis 𝐻𝐴 )

(a) The gray region is the rejection region of the true 𝐻0 at level 𝛼 = 0.05
(b) If 𝑃(𝐻0 𝑖𝑠 𝑡𝑟𝑢𝑒) ≤ 0.05; 𝑟𝑒𝑗𝑒𝑐𝑡 𝐻0 (Type (I) error = 5%) 𝑂𝑅 𝑧𝑜𝑏𝑡 ≥ 𝑧𝑐𝑟𝑖𝑡 ; 𝒓𝒆𝒋𝒆𝒄𝒕 𝐻0
(c) If 𝑃(𝐻0 𝑖𝑠 𝑡𝑟𝑢𝑒) > 0.05; 𝑟𝑒𝑡𝑎𝑖𝑛 𝐻0 (Correct decision = 95%) 𝑂𝑅 𝑧𝑜𝑏𝑡 < 𝑧𝑐𝑟𝑖𝑡 ; 𝒓𝒆𝒕𝒂𝒊𝒏 𝐻0 27
 1. 𝛼 = 0.05, (two-tail hypothesis, 𝐻𝐴 to both sides) (non-directional hypothesis 𝐻𝐴 )

In the two-tail hypothesis we divide 𝛼 𝑏𝑦 2 → 0.05/2 = 0.025

(a) The two gray regions are the rejection regions of the true 𝐻0 at level 𝛼 = 0.05
(b) If 𝑃(𝐻0 𝑖𝑠 𝑡𝑟𝑢𝑒) ≤ 0.025; 𝑟𝑒𝑗𝑒𝑐𝑡 𝐻0 (Type (I) error = 5%) 𝑂𝑅 𝑧𝑜𝑏𝑡 ≥ 𝑧𝑐𝑟𝑖𝑡 ; 𝒓𝒆𝒋𝒆𝒄𝒕 𝐻0
(c) If 𝑃(𝐻0 𝑖𝑠 𝑡𝑟𝑢𝑒) > 0.025; 𝑟𝑒𝑡𝑎𝑖𝑛 𝐻0 (Correct decision = 95%) 𝑂𝑅 𝑧𝑜𝑏𝑡 < 𝑧𝑐𝑟𝑖𝑡 ; 𝒓𝒆𝒕𝒂𝒊𝒏 𝐻0

28