Pacione, Michael - Population Geography Progress and Prospect (2013)

ROUTLEDGE REVIVALS
Population
Geography:
Progress &
Prospect
Edited by
Michael Pacione
Routledge Revivals
P op u lation G eography:
P rogress and P rosp ect
First p u b lish e d in 1 9 8 6 , this book presents a co m p reh ensiv e overview

of th e c o n te m p o ra ry state o f k n o w le d g e in the field o f p o p u la tio n
g eo g rap h y . It discusses th e c o n tem p o rary state o f th e art a nd surveys
new research d e v e lo p m e n ts and new th i n k i n g in th e m ajo r b ranches of
th e subject. It th ereb y provides an in tro d u c to ry g u id e to c o n tem p o rary
trend s an d forms a reference p o in t for fu tu re d e v e lo p m e n t in the s u b
ject.
T his page intentionally left blank
P op u latio n G eography:
P rogress and P ro sp ect
E d ite d by
Michael Pacione
¡3 Routledge
^ ft m ,/ Taylor &Francis Group
First pub lish ed in 1986
by C room H elm
T h is edition first pu blished in 2011 by R o utle dg e

2 Park Square, Milton Park, A b in g d o n , O xo n, 0 X 1 4 4 R N
Sim ultaneously published in the USA and C anada

by R o utled ge
2 70 Madison A venue, N ew Y o rk, N Y 10016
R out ledge is an im print o f the T aylor & Francis Group, an inform a business
© 198 6 Michael Pacione
All rig hts reserved. N o part of this book may be reprinted or reproduced or
utilised in any form or by any electronic, m echanical, or o th e r means, now
k no w n or hereafter invented, inclu ding pho to cop yin g and recording, or in any
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P u b l i s h e r ’s N o t e
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Disclaimer
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Population
Geography:
Progress
& Prospect
Edited by
MICHAEL PACIONE
V
CROOM HELM
London • Sydney • Dover, New Hampshire
© 1 9 8 6 Michael Pacione
Croom Helm Ltd, Provident House, Burrell Row,
Beckenham, Kent BR3 1AT
Croom Helm Australia Pty Ltd, Suite 4, 6th Floor,
64-76 Kippax Street, Surry Hills, NSW 2010, Australia
British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data

Population geography: progress and prospect.
1. Population geography
I. Pacione, Michael
304.6 HB1951
ISBN 0-7099-4045-9
Croom Helm, 51 Washington Street, Dover,

New Hampshire 03820, USA
Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data

Population geography.
(Croom Helm Progress in geography series)
Includes index.
1. Population geography. 2. Census. 3. Fertility,
Human. 4. Mortality. 5. Population policy. I. Pacione,
Michael. II. Series.
HB1951.P653 1986 304.6 86-6210
ISBN 0-7099-4045-9
Printed and bound in Great Britain by

Biddles Ltd, Guildford and King's Lynn
CONTENTS
List of T ab les
List o f F ig u re s
P reface
INTRODUCTION
1. THEORY AND METHODOLOGY IN POPULATION

GEOGRAPHY
R .I . Woods
2. THE BRITISH AND UNITED STATES* CENSUSES OF

POPULATION
J . C . D ew dney a n d D. R hind
3. FERTILITY PATTERNS IN THE MODERN WORLD

J . C ow ard
4. MORTALITY PATTERNS IN THE MODERN WORLD

P .H . C u rso n
5. GOVERNMENT POPULATION POLICIES

I. Thom as
6. INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION: A SPATIAL

THEORETICAL APPROACH
J . Salt
7. INTERNAL MIGRATION IN THE THIRD WORLD

J . G u g ler
8. COUNTERURBANISATION
A .J . F ield in g
9. MIGRATION AND INTRA-URBAN MOBILITY 257
M. C adw allad er
10. POPULATION MODELLING 284

P. R ees
N otes on C o n trib u to rs 317
Ind ex 318
T A B L E S AND F IG U R E S
Tables
3.1 F e rtility ra te s b y reg io n fo r th e e a rly 1980s............ 63

3.2 R elationships betw een th e to ta l fe rtility ra te and
v a rio u s dem ographic an d socio-economic v a r ia b le s .. 66
3.3 G overnm ent p e rc e p tio n s of fe rtility level by a re a ,
num ber of c o u n trie s an d p e rc e n ta g e d istrib u tio n
of p o p u latio n ................................................................................ 69
3.4 V ariations in family size b y social c la ss in 1951
and 1971, d u ra tio n of m arriage 20-24 y e a rs
(s ta n d a rd is e d fo r age at m a rria g e ).................................... 73
3.5 D istric ts with p a rtic u la rly high o r low age s ta n
d a rd ise d fe rtility in 1981 by major in flu en cin g
fa c to rs ............................................................................................ 78
3.6 R elationship betw een age sta n d a rd ise d fe rtility
and v ario u s dem ographic and socio-economic
v ariab les 1981.............................................................................. 82
3.7 R elationships betw een m arital fe rtility and
h y p o th esised ex p la n a to ry v a ria b le s, Scotland
1981.................................................................................................. 87
3.8 V ariations in family size in N o rth ern Ire la n d by
a rea and relig ion , 1983 (e v e r-m a rrie d women
aged 45 -5 9).................................................................................... 91
4.1 S tan d ard ised m ortality ratio s b y social c la ss,
males aged 15-64 y e a r s , E ngland a n d Wales
1921-72............................................................................................ 101
4.2 In fant d eath ra te s by social c la s s , England and
Wales, av erag e 1979-81........................................................... 104
5.1 In q u iries into population in itia te d by th e g o v e rn
ments of Developed n a tio n s, 1961-72................................ 133
5.2 C hanges in th e commitment to family plan n in g
program m es among low and middle income n a tio n s,
1972-82............................................................................................ 135
5.3 Family plan ning in E ngland and Wales (a ) m ethods
of co ntracep tion e v e r used by women with a
legitim ate b ir th , 1967/8 to 1975; ( b ) u se of th e
family p lan n in g s e rv ic e s , 1970 an d 1975 (e v e r-
m arried women u n d e r 4 1 ).................................................. 140
5.4 A bortion in E ngland and Wales (a ) legally in d uced
ab o rtio n s ( r e s id e n ts ) , 1969-83; (b ) legally
in d u ced ab o rtio n ra te s ( p e r th o u sa n d fo r women
aged 15-49) by S ta n d a rd R egions, 1968-73............... 142
5.5 C hanges of th e volume of UK im m igration b y a rea
of o rig in , 1966-81................................................................. 143
5.6 A classification of in te rn a l m igration and
re d is trib u tiv e program m es w ith selected exam ples
from A fric a ................................................................................ 154
6.1 U nited Kingdom: lo n g -term work p erm its issu ed
1981-83 .................................................................................. 178
6.2 U nited Kingdom; lo n g -term w ork p erm its to p ro fe s
sional an d m anagerial w o rk ers 1983................................ 179
7.1 D em ographic c h a ra c te ris tic s an d income of major
T h ird World c o u n trie s ........................................................... 196
8.1 A nnual n et m igration ra te s p e r th o u sa n d population
fo r US non-m etropolitan a re a s 1960-70 and 1970-75. 230
8.2 Ratio of m etropolitan to n on-m etropolitan p o p u l
ation grow th ra te s in th e US 1950-80............................ 238
8.3 Net in te rn a l m igration ra te s p e rc e n t population for
major reg io n s in F ra n c e , 1954-62 an d 1975-82........... 238
10.1 Sixteen life h isto ry ty p e s ................................................... 287
10.2 Nine life h isto ry ty p e s ......................................................... 288
10.3 An estim ate of th e num ber of p e rso n s in th e OPCS
longitudinal stu d y in a classification u sin g nine
life h isto ry ty p e s ................................................................... 290
10.4 Population accou nts: s tr u c tu r e and exam p les........... 296
10.5 A dem ographic m atrix co n n ectin g o p en ing and
closing population sto ck s in a time in te rv a l u sin g
tra n sitio n d a ta ......................................................................... 302
10.6 A dem ographic m atrix co n necting op en in g and
closing population sto ck s in a time in te rv a l u sin g
movement d a ta ......................................................................... 304
F igures
1.1 A diagram atic summary of T re w a rth a 's system fo r

population g e o g ra p h y ........................................................... 15
1.2 A th eo retical window.............................................................. 19
2.1 US cen su s map and eq u iv alen t GBF/DIME file ............ 51
3.1 Regional v ariatio n s in family size in England and
Wales; 1951, 1961, and 1971.............................................. 72
3.2 D istricts with p a rtic u la rly high o r p a rtic u la rly
low age sta n d a rd ise d fe rtility , 1981.............................. 76
3.3 V ariations in Coale's in d ices of fe rtility ,
Scotland 1981........................................................................... 85
3.4 C hanges in th e in dices of fe rtility 1971-81 in th e
Republic of Ire la n d ............................................................... 89
4.1 S ta n d a rd ise d m ortality ra te s b y social c la ss fo r
age g ro u p s an d selected cau se of d e a th , E ngland
an d Wales, 1970-72................................................................. 100
4.2 S ta n d a rd ise d m ortality ra tio s , A u stralian m ales,
occupational g r o u p s ................................................................. 102
4.3 In fan t an d p e rin a ta l m ortality b y reg ional health
d is tric ts an d social c la s s , E ngland an d Wales,
1979-81.......................................................................................... 103
4.4 A g e-ad ju sted d eath ra te s b y se le c te d cau ses by
ra c e , USA, 1950-77................................................................. 107
4.5 Major c au ses of d e a th , D eveloped an d D eveloping
c o u n trie s, c.1 9 8 0 ..................................................................... 109
4.6 S ta n d a rd ise d m ortality ra tio s b y u rb a n an d non-
u rb a n a re a s , New Z ealand, 1964-67................................ Ill
4.7 Life ex p ectan cy at b ir th c.1 9 8 0 ........................................ 114
4.8 In fan t m ortality ra te s c.1 9 8 0 ............................................ 115
4.9 Male life ex p ectan cy a t b ir th , reg io n s o f w estern
an d n o rth e rn E u ro p e, 1969-77.......................................... 116
4.10 D istrib utio n of diastolic blood p r e s s u r e , chol
estero l and o besity ra te s , Sydney M etropolitan
A rea, 1970-75............................................................................. 122
5.1 World map of governm ent family p la n n in g and pop
ulation reduction program m es, 1978.................................. 136
5.2 Schematic lin k s betw een re se a rc h and governm ent
policy and program m es........................................................... 139
5.3 National population grow th 1970-82, by continent
and World Bank income g ro u p s .......................................... 141
5.4 T ren d of c ru d e b irth ra te in India 1962-82 and th e
ta rg e ts in su ccessiv e fiv e -y e a r developm ent p la n s .. 149
6.1 World refu g ee map..................................................................... 182
6.2 A global refu g ee sy stem ........................................................ 186
8.1 US annual n et m igration ra te s p e r th o u san d pop
ulation 1960-70 and 1970-75 by settlem ent size
(SMSA) c a te g o ry ....................................................................... 228
8.2 T re n d in US regional annual n et m igration ra te s
p e r th o u san d population 1960-70 to 1970-75................. 231
8.3 Net m igration b y ty p e of region Jap an 1955-82........... 236
8.4 F ra n c e , annual n e t m igration r a te s p e r th o u sa n d
population 1954-82 by settlem en t size (r u r a l
commune an d u n ite s u rb a in e s) c a te g o ry ....................... 237
10.1 Life h isto rie s in an ideal d ata s e t ................................ 286
10.2 Examples of s ta te to s ta te tr a n s f e r s employed in
population models..................................................................... 291
10.3 Age-time o b serv atio n p la n s .................................................. 298
To C h ris tin e , M ichael Jo h n a n d Emma V ictoria
PREFACE
The stu d y of population re p re s e n ts an in te g ra l com ponent of

human g eo g rap h y , y e t only since th e early 1950s h as p o p u l
ation geography em erged from th e academ ic shadow s to become
an acknow ledged su b -b ra n c h of th e d iscip lin e. While po p u l
ation is also a focus of in v estig a tio n fo r o th e r s u b je c ts , such
as dem ography, economics and sociology, population
geography is ch a ra c te rise d by its p a rtic u la r p e rs p e c tiv e on
spatial asp ects of population and on th e lin k s betw een
population and th e environm ent. C ontem porary in v e stig a tio n s
in population geography focus on th e th re e major dem ographic
facto rs of fe rtility , m ortality and m igration. R ecent d evelop
ments in population g e o g rap h y have m irro red tr e n d s in th e
discipline as a whole. T hese have in clu d ed a sh ift of em phasis
from d escrip tio n of p a tte rn s of population d is trib u tio n and
comparison p e r s e , tow ards an em phasis on th e p ro c e sse s
u n d erly in g o b serv ed p a tte rn s . T h e re h as also been a
re -o rd e rin g of re s e a rc h em phasis among th e th re e main them es
with g re a te r atten tio n d evoted to population mobility and
m igration stu d ie s. T his re fle c ts b oth th e im portant social an d
economic im plications of population movem ents, an d th e avail
ability of spatially d isa g g re g a te d d a ta . T h ese ch an g es have
been accompanied by developm ent of an applied o r problem -
o riented p e rs p e c tiv e , as dem o n strated by p o licy -re le v a n t
in v estig atio n s in th e fields of settlem ent an d economic p la n
nin g and in the evaluation of th e e ffe c ts of population
policies. Modern population g eo g rap h y is a m u lti-faceted s u b
ject area which see k s to blend tra d itio n a l d e sc rip tio n s of
fe rtility , m ortality and m igration p a tte rn s with a n a ly se s o f th e
dynamic p ro cesses u n d e rly in g th e se p a tte r n s .
T his collection of o riginal e ssa y s is d esig n e d to en cap
sulate th e major them es and re c e n t developm ents in a num ber
of areas of c e n tra l im portance in population g e o g rap h y . T he
volume is a d ire c t re sp o n se to th e need fo r a te x t which
review s th e p ro g re ss an d c u rre n t s ta te o f th e su b jec t an d
which p ro v id es a re fe re n c e p oint fo r fu tu re developm ents in
population geo g rap h y .
Michael Pacione
U niv ersity o f S tra th c ly d e
Glasgow
IN T R O D U C TIO N
The p lu ra listic n a tu re of population g e o g ra p h y , with its

s tro n g links to dem ography an d population s tu d ie s , is
acknow ledged in C h a p te r 1 in which Bob Woods review s re c e n t
developm ents in th e th e o ry and m ethodology of th e su b je c t.
The fundam ental q u e stio n of th e d efin itio n of population
geo g rap h y is co n sid ered and a d istin ctio n is draw n betw een
bro ad definitions (su c h as th a t em ployed b y T re w a rth a ) and
narro w er statem en ts w hich seek to c o n c e n tra te a tte n tio n on
dem ographic g eo g rap h y (ie . th e stu d y o f v a ria tio n s in popu
lation dynam ics via an aly sis of m o rtality , fe rtility and
m igration com ponents a t v a rio u s s c a le s .) C ontem porary popu
lation g eo g rap h y accommodates r e s e a r c h e rs e sp o u sin g both
dem ographic as well as tra d itio n a l g eo g rap h ic p e rs p e c tiv e s .
While su ch p lu ra lity may prom ote p ro g re s s in th e su b je c t it
can also be a rg u e d th a t th e failu re to d efine a p re c ise a re a of
in te re s t and e x p e rtise h as c o n trib u te d to th e limited in fluence
of population g eo g rap h y in th e g en eral field o f population
re s e a rc h . A ttention th e n tu r n s to th e o re tic a l co n sid eratio n s.
The p u rp o se of th e o ry and th e re la te d q u e stio n o f how a
th e o ry can be v alid ated a re su b ject to d etailed exam ination.
The d iscu ssio n th e n exam ines th e d iffe re n t lev els a t which
th e o rie s may be c o n s tru c te d . T h re e d is tin c t scales a re rec o g
n ise d . Micro th e o ry , which seek s to u n d e rs ta n d individual
b eh av io u r, is illu s tra te d w ith re fe re n c e to th e stu d y of
m arriage p ra c tic e s w ithin an environm ent o f c o n stra in ed
choice. M iddle-range th e o ry which is co n ce rn ed with th e
c h a ra c te ris tic s of g ro u p s of people is th e most commonly
employed level of co n cep tu alisatio n . Work a t th is scale is
exem plified by E a ste rlin 's attem p ts to combine economic and
sociological th e o rie s of fe rtility . G rand th e o ry is d ire c te d at
long term social, economic an d dem ographic c h an g e an d is
b e st illu s tra te d b y dem ographic tra n s itio n th e o ry . T he b a sis
of a flexible th e o ry of dem ographic b e h a v io u r b a se d on th e
in te ra c tio n of a v a rie ty of causal fa c to rs is s u g g e s te d . Five
p rin cip al methodologies fo r population g eo g rap h y a re th e n
co n sid ered . Empiricism h as been th e dom inant approach to
1
IN TRODUCTION
p a tte rn identification and modelling with significant co n tri

butions being made in fields such as m ultiregional demo
graphic accounting, and autom ated c a rto g ra p h y . When
attem pting to estab lish causal relationships some form of
positivism has normally been invoked. Though of continued
relevance in population g eo g rap h y , th e lim itations of
positivism have led to th e consideration of altern ativ e
approaches, with for exam ple, a behavioural p ersp ectiv e being
of p a rtic u la r u tility in migration stu d ie s. D espite several
problems (such as th e non-replicability of su rv e y re su lts) the
behavioural and hum anistic approaches can improve u n d e r
standing of th e forces o p eratin g to produce observed popu
lation p a tte rn s . The s tru c tu ra l p ersp ectiv e views human
behaviour as conditioned by the dominant mode of p ro d u ctio n ,
with each mode having its own laws of population. The poten
tial and problems of each of th ese methodologies a re a ssessed .
Two fundam ental issu e s fo r population geography re fe r to the
definition of the subject a re a , and how to increase the
influence of th e geographical component within population
stu d ies. It is su g g ested th a t th e answ er to both questions
lies in g re a te r specificity with concentration on key topics,
g re a te r use of demographic tech n iq u es, and the development
of an applied o r problem -oriented population geography.
Finally, th re e p a rtic u la r are a s in which g eo g rap h ers can make
a significant contribution are id en tified . F irst, the develop
ment of a com prehensive th eo ry of m igration. Second, study
of spatial v ariations in demographic s tru c tu re between cultural
regions and th e ir historical developm ent, th ird , fu rth e r
development of geographical d ata b ases and application of
forecasting methods to contem porary issu e s.
The national census generally re p re s e n ts the most com
prehensive and up to date set of inform ation available on the
dem ographic, economic and social c h a ra c teristic s of a popu
lation. As such it is a prime data source for re se a rc h e rs. In
C hapter 2 John Dewdney and David Rhind seek to introduce
potential u se rs to th e c h a ra c teristic s of th ese data se ts by
describing the n atu re of th e population censuses in B ritain
and th e United S tates. The B ritish census is one of the
longest series of decennial population d ata in the w orld. The
origin and development of the modern census s tru c tu re is
discussed and th e major innovations ( e .g . adoption of the
household as the basic u n it of enum eration) and difficulties
(e .g . in te r-c e n sa l boun d ary changes) id en tified . Issues
related to the collection and p ro cessin g of the data a re th en
ad d ressed inclu d in g , for exam ple, the legal b a sis of the
cen su s, confidentiality c o n stra in ts, th e enum eration d istric t
base and th e role of th e enum erator, cen su s layout, and the
means of p rocessing th e 1000 million pieces of information on
nearly 20 million household schedules. The v arie ty of forms of
output covering d ifferen t geographic scales is d esc rib e d .
These ran g e from p ublished volumes (including county,
2
IN T R O D U C T IO N
reg io n al, new tow n, an d national re p o r ts to g e th e r w ith key

s ta tis tic s fo r local a u th o rity an d u rb a n a re a s ) to th e u n p u b
lished small a rea s ta tis tic s which con tain almost all cla ssi
fications an d c ro s s -ta b u la tio n s likely to b e of relev an ce to
re s e a rc h e rs . A nalysis of th is d a ta h a s been facilitated by
com puter p ack ag es su ch a s SASPAC. A sim ilar o rg an isatio n al
fram ework is em ployed to exam ine th e p ro p e rtie s a n d p o ten tial
of th e U nited S ta te s' c e n s u s. The ra p id g row th of inform ation
contained in th e c e n su s re q u ire d th e in tro d u c tio n of adm inis
tra tiv e an d tech n ical in n o v atio n s in m ethods of collection and
p ro c e ssin g . T hese have in clu d ed th e in tro d u c tio n of FOSDIC
(film optical se n sin g device fo r in p u t to c o m p u te rs), th e use
of sam pling te c h n iq u e s in d a ta collection, an d th e d istrib u tio n
and collection of forms by pub lic mail. A d e tailed exam ination
of th e s tr u c tu r e of th e 1980 c e n su s is p r e s e n te d , an d th e
problem s of i t s p ro se c u tio n d is c u s s e d . P a rtic u la r a tte n tio n is
afforded to th e sp atial dim ension of th e US ce n su s an d th e
function of m aps, g eo g rap h ic b ase file s /d u a l in d e p e n d e n t map
encoding, an d s ta te m aster re fe re n c e files e x p la in ed . T hese
th re e elem ents o ffe r th e p o ten tial fo r autom ated tab u latio n of
re s u lts fo r an almost in fin ite v a rie ty of g eo graphical b ase s
( e .g . SMSAs, school d is tr ic ts , c e n su s t r a c t s , enum eration
d is tric ts and b lo c k s). T he co n ten t of th e US c e n su s is con
sid ered with p e rh a p s th e g re a te s t c o n tra s t with B ritain being
the inclusion of d ire c t q u e stio n s on incom e, p ro p e rty v alu e/
r e n t, an d cost of u tilitie s and fu el. For r e s e a rc h e rs a sig n ifi
cant d ifferen ce is in th e cost of o b tain in g d a ta , with th e US
ce n su s re g a rd e d as pub lic domain. F in ally, fu tu re d ev elop
ments a re id e n tifie d a n d major c o n tra s ts an d com parisons
draw n betw een B ritain and th e United S ta te s.
The im portance of fe rtility s tu d ie s in b o th academic
( e .g . to explain population s tr u c tu r e s ) an d p ra c tic a l term s
( e .g . p re d ic tin g dem and for se rv ic e s) h a s not been reflec ted
in th e volume of work dev o ted to th is a sp e ct of population
geo g rap h y . In C h a p te r 3 John Coward se e k s to re d re s s th is
im balance b y exam ining fe rtility p a tte r n s in th e m odern world
at a v a rie ty of g eo g rap h ic scales. At th e global level fe rtility
p a tte rn s a re c h a ra c te ris e d b y sig n ifican t v a ria tio n s betw een
re g io n s, and in th e v a ria b le s in flu en cin g su ch d is trib u tio n s .
Factors su g g e ste d to explain th e re c e n t in cidence of low f e r
tility ra te s include th e diffu sio n of "m odernisation" to some
T h ird World c o u n trie s , with a key v ariab le b ein g th e ch a n g
ing position of women in so c ie ty , a s re fle c te d in b e tte r levels
of ed u catio n , in c re a se d s ta tu s an d s e c u r ity , an d h ig h e r p ro
po rtio n s of economically activ e fem ales. O th e r causal fa c to rs
are th e e ffe c ts of family p la n n in g schem es, c u ltu ra l a n d r e
ligious b e lie fs, an d governm ent policy a n d a ttitu d e s . A ttention
is th e n focussed on th e in tra -n a tio n a l scale an d on an an aly
sis of re c e n t fe rtility p a tte r n s w ithin th e B ritish Isle s.
Significant them es id en tified fo r E ngland a n d Wales a re th e
decline in regional fe rtility d iffe re n tia ls o v e r th is c e n tu r y ,
3
b u t th e con tin u ed e x isten ce of fe rtility d iffe re n c e s a t th e local

level. Such fin d in g s clearly u n d e rlin e th e im portance o f scale
of an aly sis in g eo g rap h ic in v e s tig a tio n s . T he p rin cip a l fa c to rs
co n trib u tin g to th e regional p a tte r n s w ere id en tified as a
decline in social c la s s -b a s e d d iffe re n tia ls in fe r tility , a n d th e
regional co n v erg en ce of key v a ria b le s in flu en cin g fe rtility
(su c h as female p a rtic ip a tio n in th e la b o u r fo rce , a n d th e
sp re a d of new c u ltu ra l v a lu e s an d n o rm s). A nalysis o f th e
p ro n o u n ced v a ria tio n s in fe rtility a t th e d is tric t level
examined th e c o n trib u tio n of each of th e th re e c o n stitu e n ts of
fe rtility (m arital f e rtility , p ro p o rtio n s m arrie d , an d e x tr a
m arital fe rtility ) to th e o b se rv e d p a tte r n s . O verall it is con
cluded th a t while c e rta in dem ographic and socio-economic
facto rs c o n trib u te to v a ria tio n s in a g e -s ta n d a rd is e d fe rtility
th e level of ex p lan atio n is fa r from com plete and continued
search for additional v a ria b le s is e s se n tia l. Similar a n a ly ses
a re p re s e n te d fo r th e o th e r c o u n trie s of B rita in , a n d th e
Republic of Ire la n d . In th e la tte r , a n a ly sis of d a ta fo r th e
p erio d 1971-1981 at th e co u n ty level id en tified th e dom inant
tre n d a s an extrem ely h ig h (25%) decline in m arital fe rtility .
Possible ex p la n a to ry fa c to rs in clu d e a decline in a g ric u ltu re ,
th e grow th of an u rb a n -b a s e d m id d le-class, r e tu r n m igration
from B rita in , in c re a se d employment o p p o rtu n itie s fo r m arried
women, and th e in c re a s in g s tr e n g th of feminism and risin g
secularism among th e y o u n g . F u r th e r p ro g re s s in u n d e r
sta n d in g fe rtility tr e n d s re q u ire s co n tin u ed an aly sis o f sp atial
fe rtility p a tte rn s b o th to id e n tify ad d itio nal fe rtility -re la te d
v a ria b le s, and to a s s e s s th e role of g e n e ra l models o f fe rtility
ch an g e. Methodological q u e stio n s of p a rtic u la r im portance
concern th e n a tu re and availability of d ata and th e influence
of scale on em pirical fin d in g s.
In C h a p te r 4 P e te r C u rso n illu s tr a te s th e p o tentially
significan t role of m ortality s tu d ie s w ithin a m odern p ro c e s s -
o rien ted population g e o g ra p h y . It is o b se rv e d th a t while
medical g eo g rap h y h as c o n trib u te d to th e sp atial an a ly sis o f
m ortality le ss co n sid eratio n h a s b een given to th e q u e stio n of
d iffe re n tia l m ortality a ris in g from v a ria tio n s in social c la ss,
occup atio n , e th n ic ity , ra c e , age and se x . Examination o f th e
social in eq u ality of d e a th s u p p o rts th e e x iste n c e o f an in v e rs e
relatio n sh ip betw een m ortality and social c la ss, (w hich is
its e lf a summary m easure of a ra n g e of fa c to rs in clu d in g
living an d w orking co n d itio n s, n u tritio n le v e ls, m aternal
s ta tu s and access to h ealth c a re fa c ilitie s). S ig n ifica n tly ,
evidence from England and Wales b ased on s ta n d a rd is e d mor
tality ra tio s for d iffe re n t social g ro u p s s u g g e s ts th a t th e
class g ra d ie n t h as ste e p e n e d o v e r th e la st half c e n tu r y , a
fact which clearly q u e stio n s th e d is trib u tiv e im pact o f th e
h ealth care im provem ents of th e la st e ig h ty y e a r s . Such
c la ss-b a se d d isp a ritie s a re of ev en g re a te r m agnitude in th e
T h ird World. Significant d iffe re n c es in m ortality p a tte r n s are
also found betw een racial and eth n ic m inorities a n d th e
4
majority population in D eveloped C o u n tries w ith , in some

c a se s, th e in cidence of childhood m ortality com parable to ra te s
in th e T h ird World s ta te s . At a g e n e ra l level a c le a r d istin c
tion in major cause of d e a th e x is ts betw een w estern d e g e n e r
ative d ise a se s (su c h as h e a rt d isease) an d th e p a ra s itic and
infectio u s d iseases ( e .g . g a s tro e n te ritis a n d tu b e rc u lo sis)
which dom inate m ortality p a tte r n s in th e D eveloping World.
The sp atial p a tte rn in g of m ortality h a s a ttra c te d most geo
graphical a tte n tio n and exam ples of th is re s e a rc h a re p ro v id ed
at th e in te rn a tio n a l, regional an d in tr a - u r b a n sc a le s. While
th e m apping of m ortality d is trib u tio n s can d e sc rib e p a rtic u la r
environm ents of r is k , in d ic a te p o ssib le lin es of epidemiologic
en q u iry , and su g g e st m odifications to h e a lth c are program m es
causativ e ex planation r e p re s e n ts a more elu siv e goal. Some
p ro g re s s h as been made in id e n tify in g ris k fa c to rs in th e
n atu ral and social en v iro n m en ts which c o n trib u te to p rem atu re
d eath . T hese gen erally inclu d e clim ate, a ir and w ater pol
lution and hou sin g co n d itio n s, while in a T h ird World c o n te x t,
the role of environm ental fa c to rs , lan d u se p ra c tic e s an d th e
effe c ts of th e developm ent p ro c e ss have all been re la te d to
disease h a z a rd . The c e n tra l problem , h o w ev er, rem ains th a t
of e sta b lish in g a causal lin k , (as opposed to a sta tistic a l
re la tio n sh ip ), and it may be th a t "th e scien tific dem onstration
of cau sality in g eo g rap h ic re s e a rc h rem ains an illu so ry and
unobtainable goal". It is su g g e s te d th a t lo n g itu d in al and
cohort stu d ie s and re c o n stru c tio n o f p e rso n a l h isto rie s may
offer g re a te r prom ise th a n c u r r e n t re sid e n c e -b a se d stu d ie s o f
m ortality. It is also n e c e ssa ry to in c o rp o ra te a g r e a te r ran g e
of p ossible fa c to rs ( e .g . biochem ical o r p h y sio lerg ic in flu
ences) in to th e a n a ly sis. It is concluded th a t more so p h isti
cated methodologies which reco g n ise th e tem poral as well as
spatial dim ensions of d ise a se , and in v e stig a tio n s a t more
detailed le v e ls, c o n c e n tra tin g on p a rtic u la r population g ro u p s
are re q u ire d if we a re to ap p ro ach th e objective o f u n d e r
sta n d in g th e p ro c e sse s which lead to sp a tia l v a ria tio n s in
m ortality.
All governm ents en act policies w hich, e ith e r d ire c tly o r
in d ire c tly , affect th e n a tu ra l grow th a n d d is trib u tio n of th e ir
pop u latio n s. Population policies can seek to achieve a num ber
of o b jectiv es, ra n g in g from u rb a n d eco n gestion to national
developm ent. The s tra te g ie s selected re fle c t th e view s of
governm ent an d in te rn a l p re s s u r e g ro u p s as well a s th o se o f
in te rn a tio n a l ag encies an d re s e a r c h e r s . In C h a p te r 5 Ian
Thomas exam ines th e re la tio n sh ip b etw een population re se a rc h
and governm ent p o licy , an d ex p licitly c o n sid e rs th e c o n tri
b ution of a g eographical ap p ro ach to th e an aly sis o f th e
com ponents of population policy. It is a rg u e d th a t while o th e r
disciplines also exam ine th e fa c to rs asso ciated with population
dynam ics g eo g rap h y h as a p a rtic u la r re sp o n sib ility to explain
regional v a ria tio n s in th e o p eratio n a n d outcome o f th e se
fo rc e s. A ttention is th e n focussed on th e n a tu re an d o rig in of
5
INTRODUCTION
population policy in th e United Kingdom w here concern in the

in te r-w a r period o v er th e uneven regional incidence of u n
employment and low levels of fe rtility was rep laced , in the
po st-w ar e ra , by policies with an ti-g ro w th tendencies ( e .g .
family planning programmes and immigration c o n tro ls). In
assessin g th e co ntribution of geographical stu d ies to the
formulation of population policy th re e areas of re se a rc h are
considered. The firs t re fe rs to policies designed to affect the
ra te of population grow th and in th is area th e geographical
in pu t is significantly less th an th at of the o th e r social
sciences. Potential areas for geographic analysis include the
diffusion and utilisation of family plan n in g , the influence of
sp atial-cu ltu ral variations in th e acceptibility of policies,
regional and social differen tials in m ortality, and th e policy
implications of concentrations of elderly o r ethnic populations.
Policies designed to affect population d istrib u tio n and re d is
trib u tio n have been more d irectly influenced by geographic
investigation in term s of both migration th eo ry and empirical
stud ies of migration m otives, m igrant c h a ra c te ristic s, and the
impact on origins and d estin atio n s. T his is illu stra te d with
reference to geographical re se a rc h into African populations.
The th ird main research area considered com prises geographic
studies which affect policy in d ire c tly . T hese include regional
studies of population as well as them atic investigations of
housing and tra n s p o rt issu e s and methodological advances in
data collection and analy sis. It is observed th a t, over recent
decades, governm ents in both th e Developed and Developing
World have displayed in creasin g in te re s t in the stu d y of
population dynamics in o rd e r to acquire information on which
to base national planning p rio ritie s. T here is also concern
over inequalities at regional and u rb an le v e ls, and a general
in te re st in the relationship between population d istrib u tio n
and social and economic developm ent. Such tre n d s em phasise
the relevance and potential of a geographical approach to
population policy.
Migration is a human activ ity which occurs at all geo
graphic scales from local to in tern atio n al, and the analysis of
migration flows re p re s e n ts a major area of re se a rc h in contem
porary population g eography. In C h ap ter 6 John Salt
examines the contribution of th e spatial approach to the
analysis of intern atio n al m igration, co nsidering both vo lu n tary
labour and inv o lu n tary refugee movements. Problems relatin g
to data and definitional lim itations and th e absence of an
em pirically-verified universally applicable model of
international migration are considered. An analytical
framework is proposed which recognises th a t (a) geographical
p a tte rn s of in ternational m igration occur within a system s
framework and are related to complex netw orks of in te rac tio n ,
and (b ) combinations of global and local forces produce
spatial migration netw orks which d iffe r in scale and
behaviour. The in creased explanatory pow er gained b y the
6
IN T R O D U C T I O N
move from m acro-scale models b ased on social p h y sic s tow ards

p ro c e ss-o rie n te d micro an aly tic p e rs p e c tiv e s on m igrant
b eh av io u r is also u n d e rlin e d . The n a tu re of political b a r r ie r s
to in te rn a tio n a l m igration is th e n d is c u sse d b e fo re th e
ch a ra c te ristic s of a s e rie s of m igration n etw o rk s is exam ined.
It is em phasised th a t in o rd e r to u n d e rs ta n d th e com plexity of
in tern atio n al sy stem s, know ledge of a g g re g a te la b o u r m arket
conditions m ust be complemented b y inform ation on th e
socio-economic and dem ographic fa c to rs which u n d erlie
population m ovem ents. T he phenom enon of r e tu r n m igration
has a ttra c te d co n sid erab le in te r e s t in re c e n t y e a rs . To d a te ,
how ever, re se a rc h h a s c o n c e n tra te d upon th e economic dimen
sion, and more detailed in v e stig a tio n of th e h e te ro g e n e ity and
d iffe rin g m otivations of m ig ran ts is re q u ire d . Specific a tte n
tion is th e n affo rd e d to th e m igration of h ig h -le v el m anpower.
It is s u g g e ste d th a t v a ria tio n s in th e ty p e of perso n n el
involved an d ch an g es in th e n a tu re of flows o v e r time re fle ct
governm ent s tra te g ic re q u ire m e n ts an d p o licies, th e n a tu re of
economic lin k ag es betw een c o u n trie s , an d th e lab o u r policies
of em ployers, p a rtic u la rly m ulti-national com panies. In con
tra s t to lab o u r m igration th e en fo rced movement of re fu g e e s is
an u n d e r-re s e a rc h e d com ponent o f in te rn a tio n a l m igration,
with most w ork to d ate fo cu ssin g on th e co n seq u en ces r a th e r
th an on achieving th e o re tic a l u n d e rs ta n d in g of th e causal
forces. A ttem pts which have been made to concep tu alise th e
determ in an ts of re fu g e e flows a re c o n s id e re d , ra n g in g from
typological s tr u c tu r e s b a se d on th e c h a ra c te ris tic s of re fu g e e s
to an aly ses of th e political fo rces g e n e ra tin g movement. A
model of th e global refu g ee system is p re s e n te d a s a p o te n
tially u sefu l e x p la n a to ry fram ew ork fo r th e an a ly sis of refu g ee
flows. It is em phasised th a t while political fa c to rs generally
u n d erlie refu g ee movements th e v a rie d n a tu re of th e re su ltin g
flows d efines a cle a r role for g eo g rap h ical a n a ly sis. The
spatial ap proach to th e s tu d y of in te rn a tio n a l m igration is
c h a ra c te rise d a s b o th em pirical (ie . d a ta d e p e n d a n t) and
pragm atic (ie. co n cern ed with re a l w orld p ro b lem s). It is
concluded th a t th e major c o n trib u tio n of th e g eographical
approach lies in its ab ility to id e n tify v a ria tio n s w ithin and
betw een m igration n e tw o rk s, which b o th h ig h lig h ts th e d a n g e r
of o v erg en eralisatio n and h elp s d efine th e lim its of any
general th e o ry of in te rn a tio n a l m igration.
In C h a p te r 7 Josep h G ugler exam ines th e phenom enon of
in te rn a l m igration in T h ird World c o u n trie s w here th e p r e
dominant c h a ra c te ris tic is population g row th in b o th u rb a n
and ru ra l a re a s . Two major m igratory p a tte r n s a re e v id e n t;
ru ra l - ru ra l movements ( e .g . in re sp o n se to p r e s s u r e on th e
land re s o u rc e , o r due to n a tu ra l d is a s te r s ) , and r u r a l-u r b a n
m igration. T he la tte r is th e su b ject of p a rtic u la r a tte n tio n ,
given th e social, economic an d political problem s p o se d , and
the cru cial role of th is m igration p ro c e ss in th e global u rb a n
tra n sitio n . T he e ffe c ts of th e in co rp o ratio n o f tra d itio n a l
7
economies in to th e w orld c ap italist system a re th e n d isc u sse d .

T hese inclu d e th e ac c e lera te d grow th of population and an
in c re a se d significance of th e u r b a n - r u r a l gap in liv in g s ta n
d a rd s . The n a tu re and e x te n t o f th e se d iffe re n c e s, m easure
ment p ro b lem s, an d th e n e c e ssity of d is a g g re g a tin g d a ta to
co n sid er th e position of in d iv id u al m ig ran ts a re d isc u sse d . It
is su g g e s te d th a t u rb a n -b ia s on th e p a r t of governm ent
decision-m akers is a major cau sal fa c to r w ith r u r a l p e a s a n ts ,
effectiv ely d e p riv e d of political an d economic re p re s e n ta tio n ,
re s o rtin g to m igration in an attem pt to im prove th e ir q u ality
of life. T he fact th a t th e fundam ental fa c to r u n d e rly in g r u r a l-
u rb an m igration is economic lead s to exam ination o f th e u rb a n
lab o u r m ark et. It is o b se rv e d th a t w h ereas in th e colonial
perio d em ployers e x p e rie n c ed h ig h ra te s of la b o u r tu rn o v e r
and ab sen teeism , a s economies w ere in c o rp o ra te d in to th e
world system la b o u r s h o rta g e s w ere rep la c e d by o v e rs u p p ly ,
unem ployment an d underem ploym ent. T he dynam ics o f th is
radical chan g e a re e x p lo re d . V ariation in th e s tr u c tu r e of
u rb a n lab o u r m ark ets also u n d e rlie s two in te rp re ta tio n s of
m igrating b e h a v io u r. T he f ir s t p o s tu la te s a random p ro c e ss of
lab o u r re c ru itm e n t c h a ra c te rise d as an u rb a n job lo tte ry , in
which relativ ely ra p id tu rn o v e r an d h ig h minimum w ages made
even an e x te n d e d job se a rc h a w orthw hile s tr a te g y . T his
how ever a p p e a rs to have b een an excep tio nal model, ty p ified
b y tro p ical A frica in th e p o st-co lo n ial e r a . More commonly,
labour recru itm en t is s tr u c tu r e d on th e b a sis of a se t o f
segm ented m ark ets w ith access to job o p p o rtu n itie s d ep e n d e n t
upon th e m ig ran ts' e d u c a tio n , s e x , a g e , tra in in g and p a tro n
ag e . It is em phasised th a t th e flow of m ig ran ts in to cities
re p re s e n ts only a fra c tio n of th e p o te n tial m ig ran ts in th e
ru ra l r e s e rv o irs . T h ree p rin c ip a l p a tte r n s of m igration are
id e n tifie d , r e tu r n m igration, c irc u la r m igration, an d p e r
manent settlem en t, - an d th e o p e ra tio n , a d v a n ta g e s an d d is
ad v an tag es of each s tr a te g y a re exam ined. F inally, c o n sid e r
ation is given to governm ent atte m p ts to red u c e th e r u r a l-
u rb a n flows. It is o b se rv e d th a t in p ra c tic e in te rn a l m igration
con tro ls a re d ifficu lt to en fo rce an d a re of limited
effe c tiv en e ss. It is a rg u e d th a t policies which seek to deny
th e b e n e fits of u rb a n life to d isa d v a n ta g e d ru ra l dw ellers a re
socially re g re s s iv e , an d th a t w hat is re q u ire d is a po sitiv e
policy aimed a t th e developm ent of r u r a l a re a s . T h is would
re q u ire a sig n ifican t re -o rie n ta tio n of re s o u rc e s ( e .g . v ia th e
ta x sy stem , a g ric u ltu ra l p ric in g o r d ire c t in v e stm en t) a n d ru n
co u n ter to th e in te r e s ts of u rb a n -b a s e d pow er g ro u p s . T h is
s u g g e s ts th a t such a s tra te g y is u nlikely to b e widely
adop ted an d th a t r u r a l- u r b a n m igration will continue to b e a
fe a tu re of th e population g eo g rap h y of th e T h ird World for
th e forseeable fu tu re .
F or most of th is c e n tu ry th e dom inant d irectio n o f p o p u
lation movement in w estern c a p ita list so cieties was from ru r a l
to u rb a n a re a s . Since th e e a rly 1970s, ho w ever, a r e v e rs a l of
8
th is tre n d h as become a p p a re n t an d th e phenom enon of

c o u n te ru rb a n isa tio n h as become a major com ponent of contem
p o ra ry population dynam ics. In C h a p te r 8 T ony Fielding
exam ines th is p ro c e ss in a r e p re s e n ta tiv e a r r a y of c o u n trie s
and th e n co n sid e rs th e v a rio u s e x p la n a tio n s fo r th e em ergence
of such a p a tte r n . A tten tio n is given f ir s t to th e evid en ce for
the "population tu rn a ro u n d " in USA w here dom inant elem ents
in th e post-1970 population re d is trib u tio n in c lu d e d , (a ) a
negative re la tio n sh ip betw een population grow th a n d u rb a n
size, (b ) a p o sitiv e re la tio n sh ip betw een p o pulation grow th
and d istan ce from th e city c e n tr e , an d (c ) a n e t m igration
gain by non-m etropolitan a re a s a t th e e x p e n se of m etropolitan
a re a s. T he e x iste n c e of sim ilar tr e n d s in o th e r c o u n trie s is
revealed b y detailed co n sid eratio n of A u stra lia , Jap an and
F rance. In A u stra lia , while th e tu rn a ro u n d was more th a n a
simple re v e rs a l of th e p re v io u s p a tte rn of u rb a n isa tio n (w ith ,
for exam ple, population lo ss ex p e rie n c ed by rem oter ru ra l
regions as well a s la rg e u rb a n c e n t r e s ) , common fe a tu re s
included a n et in te rn a l m igration loss from th e major cities
and th e em ergence of a "su n b elt" phenom enon in Q ueensland.
Similarly in h ig h ly -u rb a n is e d J a p a n , an d in F ra n c e , a r e v e r
sal of m igration flows in fav o u r of r u r a l a re a s became
ap p aren t aro u n d 1970. A ttention th e n tu r n s to c ritic a l
analysis of th re e major s e ts of a rg u m e n ts to ex plain c o u n te r
u rb a n isa tio n . The f ir s t su g g e stio n th a t it is a s ta tistic a l
arte fa c t a ris in g from th e u n d e rb o u n d in g o f de facto u rb a n
are a s is re je c te d since it is cle a r th a t th e p ro c e ss in volves
more th a n sub u rb a n isa tio n . A second paradigm s u g g e s ts th a t
place p re fe re n c e s can b e st explain th e c h a n g in g p a tte r n s of
net m igration. It is co n clu d ed , h o w ev er, th a t since m igration
decisions a re normally c o n stra in e d by in com e-related fa c to rs
th is argum ent h as at b e s t a s u p p o rtin g role an d h a s g re a te st
relevance fo r re tire m e n t m igration and to u ris t em ploym ent.
The th ir d model s u g g e s ts th a t c o u n te ru rb a n isa tio n r e s u lts
from world economic conditions (in p a rtic u la r th e recessio n
and e n e rg y c ris is ) w hich im proved th e position of ru ra l
regions re la tiv e to m etropolitan a re a s . T h is a rg u m e n t, b ased
on p arallels with th e 1930s, is u nderm ined by sig n ifican t
tem poral d iffe re n c es (su c h a s , th e c u r r e n t av ailability o f
social w elfare program m es) and ev idence which s u g g e s ts th at
the population tu rn a ro u n d commenced p rio r to th e economic
c rise s of 1973. T he a n a ly sis co ncludes by id e n tify in g th e
ex p lan ato ry pow er of an ap p ro ach b ased on th e g e o g rap h y o f
p ro d u ctio n . U tilising th e concept of th e sp a tia l division of
labour th is s u g g e s ts th a t c o u n te ru rb a n isa tio n may be d u e to a
sh ift from regional se c to ra l specialisatio n (in which each place
co n cen trated on all ta s k s involved in p ro d u c in g a good) to a
new spatial division of la b o u r in which p laces a re d iffe re n
tiated with re sp e c t to th e p a r t th e y p lay in th e p ro d u c tio n
p ro c e ss. T h is su g g e s te d th a t th e dominance of RSS up to
1960 p ro d u ced u rb a n isa tio n w h ereas sin ce th e 1970s th e NSDL
9
h a s allowed some form s of employment ( e .g . ro u tin e p ro

duction) and em ployees ( e .g . m anagers) to d e c e n tra lise.
F u rth e r em pirical ev id en ce is re q u ire d to su p p o rt the
RSS-NSDL tra n sitio n model b u t p relim in ary in d ica tio n s a re
th a t it o ffe rs a p o ten tially u se fu l an aly tical fram ew ork.
In C h a p te r 9 M artin C adw allader exam ines rec en t
re se a rc h in to in te r-re g io n a l m igration an d in tr a - u r b a n re s i
dential m obility. The sp a tia l p a tte r n of regional m igration
flows an d th e re la tiv e im portance of p u sh and pull fa c to rs
have been th e su b je c t of in v e stig a tio n e v e r since R avenstein
form ulated h is "laws" of m igration. While th e im portance of
d istan ce and d irectio n h as been d em o n strated it may be q u e s
tioned w h eth er th e ir in d iv id u al e ffe c ts can be isolated from
those of o th e r fa c to rs . A ttem pts to id e n tify th e re lativ e
im portance of d iffe re n t d e te rm in a n ts of m igration u sin g th e
g ra v ity model an d single eq u atio n models have in d ica te d th e
relevance of unem ploym ent r a te s , income lev els, age and
education d iffe re n c e s, and p re v io u s m igration p a tte r n s as well
as environm ental fa c to rs. S ev eral sta tis tic a l ( e .g . m ulti-
collinearity) and th e o re tic a l problem s ( e .g . th e two-way
relatio n sh ip betw een m igration and th e e x p la n ato ry v a riab les)
a re id en tified an d possib le so lu tio n s s u g g e s te d . T hese include
field th e o ry , cannonical co rrelatio n a n a ly s is, and th e u se of
s tru c tu ra l eq u atio n models which specify both th e linkages
betw een d ep e n d e n t an d in d e p e n d e n t v a ria b le s and also th e
in te rre la tio n sh ip s among th e initial cau sal v a ria b le s. The
con trib u tio n of dynam ic models to th e s tu d y of tem poral
change in m igration p a tte r n s ( e .g . via Markov chain an aly sis
o r tim e-series te c h n iq u e s such as m oving a v era g e an d a u to
re g re ssiv e models) is also d is c u ss e d . A ttention th e n tu r n s to
th e b ehavioural ap p ro ach to m igration, c e n trin g on th e
investm ent in human cap ital th e o ry an d on th e co n cep ts of
place u tility and re sid e n tia l p re fe re n c e . In ad dition to the
links betw een p re fe re n c e s and m igration b e h av io u r th e n a tu re
of p re fe re n c e s h as b een ex p lo red an d th e u tility of sev e ra l
p ro c e d u re s (su c h as conjoint m easurem ent te c h n iq u e s and
m ulti-dim ensional scalin g ) is illu s tr a te d . It is su g g e ste d th a t
fu r th e r p ro g re s s in u n d e rs ta n d in g in te r-re g io n a l m igration
may be gained by com bining macro and m icro-scale
a p p ro ach es. S everal im p o rtan t re s e a rc h q u e stio n s a re id e n t
ified in clu d in g (a) th e s tu d y of tem poral c h a n g e s in m igration
p a tte r n s , (b ) in co rp o ratio n of in d iv id u al and in stitu tio n a l
c o n stra in ts in to m igration m odels, an d (c) g re a te r atte n tio n to
th e co n seq u en ces as well a s th e c a u se s of m igration. The
discu ssio n th e n tu r n s to co n sid e r re sid e n tia l movement within
cities. Spatial v a ria tio n s in mobility ra te s a re id e n tifie d and
possible e x p la n a to ry fa c to rs , (re la te d to dem ographic, social,
economic an d h o u sin g c h a ra c te ris tic s of th e u rb a n e n v iro n
ment) a re exam ined. As at th e reg io n al le v e l, a g g re g a te
analy sis of th e role of d istan ce and d ire c tio n in in tr a - u r b a n
movement is complemented by co n sid eratio n of b eh avioural
10
models which focus on th e in d iv id u al m ig ran t. It is o b se rv e d

th a t alth o u g h th e y a re in te r r e la te d , th e major com ponents of
the m igration p ro c e ss can be exam ined sin g ly in an a ttem p t to
illum inate th e u n d e rly in g m echanism s. T h e decision to move,
for exam ple, h as been in v e stig a te d u sin g co n c ep ts su c h as
resid en tial s tr e s s . S tu d y of th e se a rc h p ro c e ss h as co n sid ered
inform ation s o u rc e s , optimum sto p p in g ru le s and th e location
of se a rc h a c tiv ity ; while atte m p ts have b een made to model
resid en tial choice p ro c e s s e s by m eans o f log lin e a r m odels. In
most form ulations to d a te , ho w ev er, in su ffic ie n t a tte n tio n has
been given to th e c o n s tra in ts on in d iv id u al m igration. It is
su g g e ste d th a t f u r th e r in v e stig a tio n of th e e ffect of h o using
supply c o n s tra in ts on m igration b e h a v io u r could in c re a se th e
p re d ic tiv e ability of e x is tin g models an d en hance th e ir u tility
in term s of public policy form ulation.
T he explanation an d p re d ic tio n of human b e h a v io u r in
space is th e g en eral o bjective to which q u a n tita tiv e population
g e o g ra p h e rs seek to make a c o n trib u tio n . Two specific a re a s
in which population m odellers have shown in te re s t a re th e
behaviour of p o p u latio n s in th e p a st an d how population may
develop in th e th e f u tu r e . In C h a p te r 10 Philip R ees, concen
tra tin g on p re d ic tiv e form ulations, e x p lain s th e p rin c ip al
conceptual an d methodological issu e s u n d e rly in g population
modelling. Four fundam ental co n cep ts a re exam ined. F ir s t, th e
concept of th e ideal d a ta se t an d life h isto ry fram ew orks,
second, th e s ta te s of th e sy stem , t h ir d , th e ty p e of tr a n s f e r
data and model ty p e , and fo u rth th e ag e-tim e plan u sed in
o b se rv in g or m easuring dem ographic v a ria b le s. T he p ro p e rtie s
of an ideal d a ta se t em bodying th e life h isto rie s of th e p o p u
lation a re d e ta ile d , an d th e p o ten tial u tility of th e OPCS
longitudinal stu d y n o ted . T he ch ief im portance o f su ch a
conceptual fram ew ork is th a t it en ab les re s e a r c h e rs to ev alu
ate th e ir d a ta a g a in st an ideal an d so reco g n ise any
deficiencies o r b ia s s e s. T he second key co ncept r e f e r s to th e
ways in which a population is classified a n d to th e movement
of in d iv id u als betw een su ch c la sse s o v e r th e ir lifetim e.
Several exam ples of th e k in d of s ta te to s ta te tr a n s f e r s th a t
have commonly been b u ilt in to population models a re p ro v id ed
( e .g . betw een age g ro u p s , m arital co n d itio n , la b o u r force
s ta tu s , and geographic a re a s ) a n d th e problem s of o p e r
ationalising th e se a re co n sid e re d . T he d iffic u lty of in c o r
p o ra tin g sev eral dim ensions in to a model is exam ined.
T h ird ly , th e way in w hich d iffe re n t k in d s o f tr a n s f e r data
affect th e calculation of multi s ta te tra n s itio n p ro b a b ilitie s and
influence th e in te rp re ta tio n of model o u tp u ts is d isc u sse d .
The basic d istin ctio n is draw n betw een tr a n s f e r s a s tr a n
sitio n s, m oves, and last m igratio n s. It is em phasised th a t in
developing a multi s ta te model of a pop ulation it is f ir s t
n e c e ssa ry to a sc e rta in th e ty p e of tr a n s f e r d a ta available and
th e n adopt th e a p p ro p ria te model s tr u c tu r e . T he u se o f th e
method of dem ographic acco u n ts in e stim atin g m ulti sta te
11
INTRODUCTION
mobility is th en illu s tra te d . The final set of concepts con

sidered concerns th e age-tim e plan (ATP) employed in
observing o r m easuring dem ographic v ariab les. The n a tu re of
four ATPs is explained with th e aid of Lexis diagram s, and
the ben efits and problem s of employing each are identified.
Attention th en tu rn s to two fundam ental models in population
geography - th e cohort su rv iv al and th e life table models -
and how th ese can be linked to th e concepts outlined. A
general formulation for m ulti-state projection models is th e n
p rese n te d and critically a sse sse d . Some problem s in imple
menting th e projective models devised are identified and
possible solutions su g g e ste d . To be su ccessful population
modelling must be based on sound inform ation on th e n atu re
of the system being modelled, on th e ty p e of population sta te s
necessary for the problem , and on th e ty p e of tra n s fe r data
available for th e system u n d e r in v estig atio n .
12
C h ap ter One
THEORY AND METHODOLOGY IN POPULATION GEOGRAPHY
R. I. Woods
Population g eo g rap h y h as no one th e o r y , methodology o r , fo r

th a t m a tte r, d efin itio n . It is a widely reco g n ised su b -fie ld of
geo g rap h y as a te a c h in g su b je c t a n d w ork on population
m atters is prom inent in th e re s e a rc h d iscip lin e th a t is geo
g ra p h y . B ut th e d istin c tio n s betw een g eo g rap h ies of p o p u
latio n , w here population is m erely one a sp e c t of a complete
human g e o g ra p h y ; sp atial p e rs p e c tiv e s in population stu d ie s
or d em ography, and population g eo g rap h y as a se p a ra te
en tity in its own rig h t a re excep tio n ally b lu r r e d . Some of
th ese d ifficu lties re la te to th e in h e re n t problem s faced in
defining g eo g ra p h y , b u t o th e rs stem from th e n a tu re of p o p u
lation stu d ie s as a d iffu se m u lti-d iscip lin ary specialism .
In o rd e r to clarify w hat a re th e im portant elem ents in
th is chaotic sta te of a ffa irs we m ust b eg in by exam ining th e
orig in s of com peting d efin itio n s of popu latio n g e o g ra p h y . T his
will pro v id e an in tro d u c tio n to what will be th e main concern
of th is c h a p te r: a d iscu ssio n of th e th e o re tic a l and m ethod
ological developm ents in b o th th e g e o g ra p h e r's ap p ro ac h to
population a n d , since it may be th a t population g eo g rap h y is
also b ein g done b y n o n -g e o g ra p h e rs , population stu d ie s in
g en eral.
DEFINITIONS
Glenn T T re w a rth a 's p re s id e n tia l a d d re s s to th e A ssociation of

American G eo g rap h ers in 1953 p ro v id e s a co n v en ien t s ta r tin g
point fo r o u r co n sid eratio n of th e v a rio u s d efin itio n s o f p o p u
lation g e o g ra p h y . T re w a rth a (1953, see also K o sin sk i, 1984)
was co n cern ed w ith th e need fo r g e o g ra p h e rs to tr e a t p o p u
lation m atters as a p rin c ip a l su b -d isc ip lin e (w ith c u ltu ra l and
p hy sical g e o g ra p h y ) of a te a c h in g and re se a rc h su b je c t th a t
was essen tially h olistic in form . B u t a p a rt from bem oaning th e
neglect of population he p ro p o sed 'a system fo r population
geo g rap h y ' which ev en th ir ty y e a rs o n , is still well w orth
co n sid e rin g . 'T h e g e o g ra p h e r's goal in an y o r all a n a ly ses of
THEORY AND METHODOLOGY IN POPULATION GEOGRAPHY
population is an u n d e rsta n d in g of th e regional d ifferences in

the e a rth 's covering of people. J u s t as area of differentiation
is the theme of geography in g e n e ra l, so it is of population
geography in p a rtic u la r' (T re w a rth a, 1953, 87). Population
geography is th e 'a re a analysis of population', and so
T rew arth a's 'system ' lists 'th e kinds of population fea tu res to
be observed and compared in d iffe re n t a re a s '. A diagram atic
summary of T rew arth a's (1953, 88-87) 'system ' is illu stra te d
in Figure 1 .1 . The objective, shown in th e to p -c e n tre box, is
to u n d e rsta n d th e area differen tiatio n of population, b u t th is
is accomplished via at least th re e ro u te s: h isto rical, numerical
and qualitative. The second box in Figure 1.1 seems th e most
im portant since it covers m ortality and fertility variations
(2b): the d istrib u tio n of population, settlem ent size and
urbanisation (2 d ): m igration at v ario u s scales (2e): b u t is
also linked with notions of reso u rces and c a rry in g capacities
(2c). The th ird box relates to area differentiation in the
qualities of population; some of which are physical (3a) and
some socio-economic (3 b ). The point needs to be em phasised
th a t T rew arth a's 'system ' would re g a rd area differentiation in ,
for example, levels of economic development as p a rt of popu
lation g eography. This is en tirely co n sisten t since th e o th e r
two th ird s of the geography trian g le are physical and
cu ltu ral, n eith er of which would presum ably deal with
economic development as a central issu e .
Although T rew artha arg u ed th e case for population as
the 'pivotal element in g eography' he was also aware th a t,
'th e re is bound to be lack of agreem ent on th e full content of
the field of population geography and adm ittedly th e re is no
one way o r b est way of o rd e rin g and a rra n g in g the topics to
be included. Still, in most disciplines and b ran ch es of d isci
plines, th e re is a core of content on which th e re is reaso n
able agreem ent, even though th e full content and its a rra n g e
ment may b ear th e stamp of individual a u th o rsh ip '
(T rew arth a, 1953, 87). D espite changes in geography as a
teaching subject and re se a rc h discipline many a u th o rs have
used T rew arth a's 'system ' o v er th e last th ir ty y e a rs. John I.
C larke's (C lark e, 1965 and 1972), approach has been p a rtic u
larly influential. 'Population g e o g ra p h y ... is concerned with
dem onstrating how spatial variatio n s in th e d istrib u tio n ,
composition, m igrations and grow th of populations a re related
to spatial variatio n s in th e n a tu re of p la c e s', and th u s
'population g eo g rap h ers endeav o u r to u n rav el th e complex
in te r-re la tio n sh ip s betw een physical and human environm ents
on the one h an d , and population on th e o th e r. The expla
nation and analysis of th e se in te r-re la tio n sh ip s is th e real
substance of population geo g rap h y ' (C larke 1972, 2; see also
C larke, 1984). More re c e n tly , Robin J . P ry o r (1984) begins
his review of methodological problem s in population geography
with: 'I t is assumed h ere th a t population geography deals
with th e analysis and explanation of in te rre la tio n sh ip s betw een
14
THEORY
AND
METHODOLOGY
IN POPULATION
GEOGRAPHY
M Fig. 1.1 A diagram atic summary of G .T . T re w a rth a 's 'system for population g e o g ra p h y '.
01 (S o u rce: b ased on T re w a rth a , 1953, 88-89)
THEORY AND METHODOLOGY IN POPULATIO N GEOGRAPHY
population phenomena and th e geographic c h a ra c te r of places

as both v a ry th ro u g h time and space. Population phenomena
include the dynamics of population d istrib u tio n , u rb a n /ru r a l
location, den sity and grow th (o r d ecline); m ortality, fe rtility ,
and m igration; and s tru c tu ra l c h a ra c te ristic s including age,
sex , eth n icity , marital s ta tu s , economic com position, national
ity , and religion' (P ry o r, 1984, 25). Here we have a workable
and unified definition th a t links T re w a rth a 's 'system ' with
C larke's concern with spatial variations in populations and
places.
This broad definition is also reflected in Daniel Noin's
Geographie de la Population (1979) and J a rg e n B ohr's
iBevOlkerungsgeographie (1983). Both a u th o rs are concerned
with the spatial d istrib u tio n of p o p u latio n , with the
components of its grow th and with th e ch a ra c teristic s of
populations. Noin's (1984) su rv e y of the contents of popu
lation geography textbooks p ublished d u rin g the last tw enty
years shows q uite clearly th a t the broad definition has been
the one most widely adopted and th a t its chief d istin g u ish in g
characteristic is a close ad herence to T re w a rth a's 'system ' b u t
especially boxes 2d, 3a and 3b. O th er definitions and
approaches have been pro p o sed , how ever.
The narrow definition is to be found in Hoods (1979,
1982) and Jones (1981). T h eir ap p ro ach , both sta te d and
implied, is largely concerned with m aterial related to boxes 2b
and 2e in Figure 1.1. T hat is v ariatio n s in population dynam
ics approached via an analysis of th e m ortality, fe rtility and
migration components at v arious scales, in the case of Jones
(1981), and more generally the stu d y of population from the
spatial p ersp ectiv e. The narrow definition deliberately
neglects population d istrib u tio n and re d istrib u tio n (2d) and
the 'q u alities of populations' (3 ), except in the sense th a t the
la tte r affects the com ponents. T his attem pt to narrow the
field of view and to develop a dem ographic geography o r
spatial dem ography has not gone unchallenged by th e advo
cates of th e broad definition (se e , fo r example, C larke,
1980, 1984) who, as we have se e n , still ad h ere to T rew arth a's
'system ' of Figure 1 .1 . They would answ er C larke's (1980,
368) qu estio n , 'How much more dem ographic should population
geography become?' in a way th a t would accept th e techniques
of analysis developed by d em ographers, b u t would reject the
wider methodology and objectives. Newman and Matzke (1984)
seem to su g g est a sensible compromise. For them 'population
geography is a relatively open field of in q u iry . It does have
a recognisable co re, b u t th e re is considerable room fo r many
issu es th a t relate to people and th e ir w ell-being' (Newman and
Matzke, 1984, 6 ). However, the core com prises th e demo
graphic v ariab les, population change and d istrib u tio n ; while
beyond may lie 'social and economic in d icato rs' ( e .g .
language, e th n ic ity , religion, occupation); resid en tial
16
c h aracteristics' (ru ra l and u rb a n ); a n d 'population in its

bro ad er human context' ( e .g . re so u rc e s, politics, p o licy).
It might be objected th a t an ex ten d ed debate o v e r th e
definition and content of population geography is bound to be
arid at b e s t, d e stru c tiv e at w o rst, th a t population geography
should be what g eo g rap h ers active in teach ing and re se a rc h
on population do. T here is no need fo r e ith e r a b road o r
narrow definition where in te r-d isc ip lin a ry boundaries a re
being crossed with in creasin g ease and b y grow ing num bers.
All th is may be so, b u t one is left to p o n d er a rid d le set by
Clarke (1977, 136), 'Why has th e academic influence o f popu
lation geo g rap h ers been less significant th an th e ir num bers
would su g g est?' 'Academic influence' will be taken to stem
from th e theoretical in sig h ts provided by a discipline o r su b
discipline to g eth er with th e empirical know ledge, b u t p e rh a p s
especially th e useful know ledge, accum ulated and th e ability
to pred ict su ccessfu lly . Using th ese c rite ria it may be
appreciated why geography as a re se a rc h discipline lacks
academic influence; why within the discipline the influence of
population geography and population g eo g rap h ers has been
relatively insignificant; and why th e same could be said of
geography's influence on dem ography o r population stu d ie s.
As Jones (1981, vi) has rem arked, 'Population g eo graphers
have not fig u red among th e storm troopers o f methodological
transform ation in geography in recent y e a r s . . . '
My answ er to C lark e's riddle is to arg u e th at because of
the broad definition population g eo g rap h ers have sp read
them selves too thinly o v er too larg e a field; th a t generally
they have not m astered th e tech n iq u es of dem ography as
Trew artha (1953) advised them to; and th a t they have been
unadventurous in th e ir willingness to develop new concepts
for u n d erstan d in g and p red ictio n . Of co u rse th e re have been
exceptions and th e re are signs of ch an g e, b u t most are v ery
recen t. I shall consid er th e th eo ry and method asp e cts o f th is
argum ent in the nex t section, and only two examples of th e
exceptions must suffice at th is sta g e . Regional population
forecasting, once describ ed as having rem ained p e rip h e ra l to
population geography (C lark e, 1980, 389), h as shown its e lf to
have g reat v itality and p ractical value (see Hoods and R ees,
1986). Similarly th e ability of population g eo g rap h ers to
assemble and manipulate larg e d ata s e ts of u seful knowledge
in ways th a t are convenient to o th e r re s e a rc h e rs , p la n n ers
and decision makers can only enhance th e ir influence (se e ,
for example, R hind, 1983).
I shall re tu rn to th is question of academic influence
la te r, b u t at th is stag e it is n ecessary to rep eat th a t th e re is
no one ag reed definition of population geo graphy; th a t the
so-called broad and narrow approaches a re not mutually
ex clu siv e, ra th e r th ey re p re se n t d ifferen ces of em phasis, and
th a t th e p ersiste n c e of u n c e rta in ty may p rove a source o f
17
T HEORY AND METHODOLOGY IN P O P U L A T IO N G EOGRAPHY
w eak n ess. We m ust now tu r n to co n sid e r th e main them e of

th is c h a p te r, th e o re tic a l an d methodological developm ents, b u t
th e issu e of definitional d iv e rs ity will rem ain in th e b a c k
gro u n d .
THE NEED FOR THEORY
All th e a d v a n ta g e s of w orking w ith a th e o re tic a l fram ew ork

need not be sp e lt out h e r e , b u t it may be w orth em phasising
fou r p a rtic u la r p o in ts which a re h elp fu l in population geo
g ra p h y . F ir s t, th e u se of th e o re tic a l s ta te m e n ts, th a t is
statem en ts of p ro sp e c tiv e a sso ciatio n , help to focus re se a rc h
which might o th erw ise become d iffu s e , aim less o r o v e r-
em pirical. Second, th e u se of a b ro a d th e o re tic a l fram ework
perm its in te r-d is c ip lin a ry com parison to be made more
fo rcib ly . T h ird , th e consciously in te rro g a tiv e sty le of th e o ry
co n stru c tio n an d d e s tru c tio n aid s th e definition of p rio ritie s
and c re a te s a sen se of p ro g re s s when a su ccession of p a rtia l
solutions a re forthcom ing. F o u rth , th e adoption of a th e o r
etical fram ew ork m akes ex p licit th e need to tackle issu e s of
p u rp o se , m eaning, u n d e rs ta n d in g , ex p lan atio n and in te r p r e t
ation which might o th erw ise rem ain a t a su b co nscious level.
An e ffect of re c o g n isin g th e s e p o in ts will be to p u sh
population g e o g ra p h e rs c lo se r to th e m ainstream of m ethod
ological d eb ate th a t h as in fu se d human g eo g rap h y in th e
1980s. F ig u re 1.2 in d ic a te s some of th e is s u e s th a t will need
to be ta c k le d . T he u p p e r le ft pane of th e window shows
exam ples of th e levels of th e o ry av ailable in g en eral and
em phasises both th e need to a g re e upon th e p u rp o se of
th e o ry c o n stru c tio n an d th e c rite ria to be u sed in th eo ry
validation (how th e o rie s a re to be ju d g e d ). T he low er left
pane lis ts five d istin c tiv e m ethodologies which a re c u rre n tly
in u se am ongst g e o g ra p h e rs , b u t it does so in a way th a t
s u g g e s ts a se q u en tial o rd e r from em piricism to stru c tu ra lism
which is at le a st p a rtia lly in ste p with re c e n t developm ents in
human g eo g rap h y (J o h n s to n , 1983). T he two p a n e s on th e
rig h t have been le ft to be com pleted by th e r e a d e r , b u t th e
re s t of th is and s u b se q u e n t c h a p te rs will p ro v id e d iscu ssio n
of a to e and exam ples of 1 to 5.
Purpose
C onsideration of p u rp o se not only r e tu r n s u s to definitional
issu e s in tro d u c e d ab o v e, b u t it also makes u s aw are of th e
d iffe re n c es in levels of u n d e rs ta n d in g th a t a re b e in g so u g h t.
For exam ple, th e re is a c le a r d istin c tio n betw een s tu d ie s th a t
seek to model o r fo re c a st m igration flows u sin g a black box
tech n iq u e an d th o se th a t attem pt an in te rp re ta tio n o f human
b eh av io u r an d decision m aking w ith r e s p e c t to m obility. T he
form er u sed th e o ry in a m odelling se n se ; th e y a re concerned
18
T HEO RY AND METHODOLOGY IN P O P U L A T IO N GEOGRAPHY
S pecific to
General population geography
purpose
validation
Theory levels ; micro
middle range
grand
empiricism
positivism
M ethodology behaviouralism
humanism
structuralism
Fig. 1.2 A th e o re tic a l window.
with th e re la tio n sh ip s betw een o u tp u t an d in p u t, with

resp o n se s to p aram eter c h a n g e s an d w ith th e need to p re d ic t
fu tu re p a tte r n s an d d is trib u tio n s . T he la tte r have more
intan g ib le o b je c tiv e s. T hey deal w ith notions like place
u tility , sa tisfa c tio n , environm ental s t r e s s , sta g e in th e life
cycle, b o u n d ed an d selectiv e ra tio n a lity and c o n stra in e d
action. T hese s tu d ie s seek a b ro a d e r u n d e rs ta n d in g of why
ind iv id u als o r g ro u p s m igrate and w here th e y move to , b u t
th e re a re no ag re e d c rite ria on what u n d e rs ta n d in g should
mean. While some r e s e a rc h e rs deal w ith th e c o rre la te s o f flow
p a tte r n s (G reenw ood, 1981) o th e rs a re co n ce rn ed w ith the
c h a ra c te ristic s of m overs com pared w ith s ta y e rs (S p e a re ,
1971, White an d H oods, 1980) o r th e psychology o f decision
making and im plem entation (W olpert, 1964, 1965, 1966; L ieb er,
1978; D e s b a ra ts , 1983). All c o n trib u te to th e common sto c k of
inform ation on m igration, all u se th e o ry to some e x te n t, b u t
even th o u g h th e ultim ate o bjective can be s ta te d , m ethods a re
as d iv e rse as th e in d iv id u al r e s e a rc h e rs u s in g them .
As fa r a s th e u se of th e o ry b y g e o g ra p h e rs stu d y in g
m igration is co n cern ed while th e g e n e ra l p u rp o se is cle a r
th e re is little evidence th a t th e d iv e rs ity of s h o rt-te rm objec
tiv es and m ethods has been ex p licitly rec o g n ised o r th a t th e
variable s ta tu s of conclusions h a s b een a ss e sse d in w ays th a t
reflect such d iv e rs ity .
Validation
How a re th e o rie s to be a sse sse d ? Can th e y be p ro v e d o r
merely tem porarily accep ted while ev id en ce fo r conclusive
rejection is lacking? T h ese a re im p o rtan t q u e stio n s which
19
THEORY AND METHODOLOGY IN P O P U L A T IO N G EOGRAPHY
re q u ire c arefu l co n sid eratio n w hen th e o re tic a l fram ew orks are

used in p o pulation g e o g ra p h y , y e t th e y a re o ften e ith e r
ig n o red o r th e a lte rn a tiv e forms of a n sw e rs a re not recog
nised .
T he b ro ad d efinition of popu latio n g eo g ra p h y in clu d es
settlem ent g eo g rap h y (2a in F ig u re 1 .1 ) and th u s c e n tra l
place th e o ry . T he h is to ry of th e developm ent and u se of
C h ris ta lle r's th e o ry p ro v id e s an in te r e s tin g case s tu d y o f th e
rise an d fall of a v e ry p a rtic u la r form of th eo re tic a l fram e
w ork. C lassical c e n tra l p lace th e o ry is a n o rm a tiv e-d ed u ctiv e
th e o ry b a se d on a num b er of sp ecific environm ental and
behavioural assu m p tio n s. Once th e s ta g e h a s been s e t an d the
ca st selected th e p lay u n fo ld s in a h ig h ly o rd e re d fash io n ,
th e final outcome is c le a r an d th e p r o g r e s s to it in ex o rab le .
In te re s t in C h rista lle r a n d L osch 's v e rsio n s of th e th e o ry was
rek in d led in th e 1950s and 1960s am ongst g e o g ra p h e rs who
sou g h t to move bey o n d th e d e s c rip tio n and classification of
settlem ent ty p e s who re q u ire d fo r th e ir p u rp o se a rig o ro u sly
developed th e o ry of th e location an d fu n ction of se ttle m e n ts.
The f ir s t inclin atio n of th e s e g e o g ra p h e rs was to 't e s t ' the
th e o ry . T hat is to d e riv e from c e n tra l p lace th e o ry h y p o th
eses which could in tu r n y ield em pirically verifiab le p re
dictio n s. S u rp risin g ly many of th e e a rly te s ts rev ealed th a t
th e re was r a th e r more re g u la rity in settlem ent p a tte r n s th a n
one might have ex p e c te d a p rio ri an d th a t c e rta in a sp e c ts of
u rb a n functional h ie ra c h ie s could be id e n tifie d ( B e rr y , 1967;
B e rry an d H orton, 1970). Where th e re was a poor c o rre sp o n
dence betw een o b se rv e d and e x p e c te d , g e o g ra p h e rs w ere
likely to relax th e assu m p tio n s on w hich th e th e o ry was
b ase d . Since even in Iowa an d E ast Anglia th e iso tro p ic p lain s
were b o u n d ed an d u n d u la tin g how could one e x p ect p e rfe c t
hexagons to em erge? T he ra tio n a lity of man as homo
economicus also came in to q u e stio n . Was m otorised man in d if
fe re n t to th e cost e ffe c ts of re la tiv e ly s h o rt in c re a se s in
jo u rn e y to p u rc h a s e an d th u s capable of ig n o rin g th e n e a re st
reta il o u tlet fo r a d e s ire d good? Even if one a c c e p ts an
affirm ative an sw er it m ust be rec o g n ise d th a t th e economic
o rd e rin g of sp ace is not e n tire ly chaotic a n d th u s th a t s e ttle
ment p a tte r n s may p ro v e to be no n -ran d o m .
All of th is p re s u p p o s e s th a t classical c e n tra l place th e o ry
is e x p re s s e d in a form th a t is capable of em pirical v e rifi
cation. B ut th is may p ro v e a d u b io u s p o sition to ta k e . In its
p u r e s t form c e n tra l place th e o ry is b eyond v e rific a tio n ,
r a th e r it p ro v id e s a th e o re tic a l fram ew ork of th e id eal ty p e
form . It is c o n s tru c te d in su ch a way th a t th e com parison of
o b serv ed and e x p e c te d will mainly s e rv e to h ig h lig h t ir r e g u
la ritie s in th e o b se rv e d p a tte r n since th e assum ptions on
which th e th e o ry is b a se d a re h ig h ly id e alise d . T he th e o ry
its e lf may only be a ss e s s e d in term s of it s in te rn a l logic, th a t
is th e m anner in which conclusions can be co n siste n tly
d eriv ed from in itial a ssu m p tio n s. Once th e th e o ry h a s p assed
20
this t e s t, its main function is to rev eal th o se non-econom ic

a sp e c ts, su ch as environm ental v a ria tio n an d u n eq u al re so u rc e
allocation, th a t d is to rt th e p u re ly economically d eterm ined
form of settlem ent p a tte r n g e n e ra te d by c e n tra l place th eo ry
(see W ebber, 1972, 88-116; L eib en stein , 1976).
T his example s e rv e s to raise some in te re s tin g g en eral
poin ts re g a rd in g th e form of validation to be u se d in p o p u
lation g e o g ra p h y . It s u g g e s ts th e need fo r flex ib ility a n d th e
value of avoiding s ta rk ly d efin ed c a te g o rie s - tr u e -fa ls e ,
a c c e p ted -re je c te d - an d above all i t r e f e r s u s b ack to th e
q uestion of p u rp o s e , w hat is o u r o b jectiv e in c o n stru c tin g a
th eo retical framework?
Levels: M icro-theory
The m atter of p u rp o se also lead u s on to c o n sid er th e levels
at which th e o rie s can be c o n s tru c te d . M erton (1967, 39) has
d istin g u ish e d th re e d istin c t c a te g o rie s which he labels micro
th e o ry , middle ra n g e th e o ry an d g ra n d th e o ry . Each of th e se
levels re la te s to a p a rtic u la r way of c o n s tru c tin g know ledge.
For exam ple, an d to ov ersim p lify , m icro -th eory deals w ith th e
b eh av io u r of th e e sse n tia l b u ild in g blo ck s o f a society o r
economy in th e ir in d iv id u al form s. H ere one se ek s to u n d e r
sta n d th e actions of in d iv id u al p e rs o n s , o r families o r h o u se
holds, how th e y th in k , p erc e iv e th e ir re la tiv e p o sitio n s, act
to change an d re a c t to th e ir circ u m sta n c es. Middle ra n g e
th eo ries a re concern ed w ith th e c h a ra c te ris tic s of a g g re g a te s ,
g ro u p s of people d efin ed in s p a tia l, o ccu p atio n al, e th n ic e tc
cate g o rie s. T his form of th e o ry d eals ex p licitly with d e p e n
den t and in d e p en d e n t v a ria b le s , w ith th e m u ltiv ariate a sso c i
ation betw een a num ber of th e la tte r an d one of th e form er.
G rand th e o ry is r a th e r more d ifficu lt to d efine p re c is e ly , b u t
its sp h e re is ty p ified by lo n g -term so cial, economic and
dem ographic ch a n g e . For population g e o g ra p h e rs dem ographic
tra n sitio n th e o ry p ro v id e s p e rh a p s th e most obvious exam ples
(see S k in n e r, 1985, fo r a g e n e ra l d isc u s s io n ).
In te re s t in m icro-scale th e o ry am ongst population geo
g ra p h e rs has re la te d mainly to th e ir co n c e rn w ith m igration
stu d ie s , th e ir d e sire not only to d e sc rib e th e c h a ra c te ris tic s
of m ig ra n ts, o rig in s , d e stin a tio n s an d flow s, b u t also to
u n d e rs ta n d how an d why in d iv id u a ls decide to move (W hite,
1981). B ut th e se id e a s may also b e a p p ro p ria te w hen dealing
with o th e r dem ographic e v e n ts (w hen an d whom to m a rry ,
how many ch ild re n to have and w hen, w h e th er to get
d iv o rc e d ). Let u s co n sid e r th e case of m arriag e , a r a th e r
n eg lected a rea of population g eo g ra p h y .
C ro ss-c u ltu ra l d efin itio n s of m arriage e n c o u n te r c e rta in
problem s for th e significance and m eaning of m arriage v a rie s
in im portant re s p e c ts betw een so cieties. T he most im portant
asp ect re la te s to th e legal r ig h ts of c h ild re n b o rn to p a re n ts
who a re m arried . M arriage th u s becom es an in s titu tio n which
21
THEORY AND METHODOLOGY IN P O P U L A T IO N GEO GR A PHY
legitim ises re p ro d u c tio n , inv o lv es a more o r le ss perm anent

sexual union (im plying th a t b o th p a r tn e r s m ust b e sexually
m ature) and th e o n set of w hich is sig n ified by a pu b lic c e r
emony. In many A frican an d Asian so cieties m arriages are
a rra n g e d betw een teen ag e b rid e s an d grooms b y p a re n ts often
with th e a ssista n c e of th ir d - p a r ty m arriage b ro k e rs . A fter th e
m arriage cerem ony th e b rid e joins th e household o f th e
groom 's p a re n ts w here sh e is in a sen se 'on p ro b atio n ' u n til
th e b ir th of h e r f ir s t child w hereupon sh e becom es a fully
accepted member of th e p a re n ta l family and household. In
th e se circu m stan ces th e ru le s an d co n v en tions of m arriage a re
clearly d eterm in ed , e v ery o n e know s w hat is ex p e cte d o f them
and deviation is ex cep tio n al. In W esternised societies m arriage
has th e same re p ro d u c tiv e an d legitim ising fu n c tio n s, b u t th e
arran g em en t of m arriage is fa r more h a p h a z a rd . H ere th e r e is
a balance betw een th e choices of in d iv id u a ls, and th e con
s tr a in ts imposed by p a r e n ts an d society in g e n e ra l. T he social
norms involved re la te to san ctio n s a g a in st n o n -m a rry in g
couples an d th e u se of a family o rie n ta te d ideal as a means of
giving m eaning to human e x iste n c e . In d iv id u al choice, on th e
o th e r h a n d , in flu en ces th e age at which m arriage o c c u rs , th e
p a r tn e r selected and th e d u ra tio n of th e m arriag e. For the
dem ographer it is th e age at m arriage and th e p ro p o rtio n of
th e p o p u latio n , especially fem ale, m arried in any one age
group th a t is of most in te r e s t since th e se elem ents may have
im portant e ffe c ts on fe rtility p a tte r n s p a rtic u la rly w here
family lim itation is not in use (Woods an d H inde, 1985). But
th e population g e o g ra p h e r may also be co n cern ed w ith contact
p a tte rn s an d inform ation field s ( P e r r y , 1969; Morrill and
P itts, 1967).
Any m icro-theory of m arriage will need to contain two
elem ents: se a rc h and selectio n . Let u s su p p o se th a t once an
indiv id u al becomes eligible (a t 18 y e a rs p e rh a p s ) he o r she
will e n te r th e s e a rc h c a teg o ry which co n tain s p a ssiv e an d
active s e a rc h e rs (th e p ro p o rtio n of th e la tte r in c re a sin g with
a g e ). The se a rc h will its e lf be a ffected by o p p o rtu n itie s,
such a s th e sex ra tio am ongst elig ib les which is demo-
graphically d eterm in ed , an d b y th e s tr u c tu r e of d a y -to -d a y
contact p a tte r n s which a re larg ely conditioned by a s e a r c h e r's
re sid e n tia l, employment an d re c re atio n a l c h a ra c te ris tic s .
Mutual selectio n , on th e o th e r h a n d , will be in flu en ced by
perceiv ed com patibility on a num ber of levels (p h y sic a l, e d u
catio n al, in te r e s ts , family b a c k g ro u n d , fo r exam ple). T he
decision to m arry will th u s re p re s e n t th e culm ination o f a
p ro c e ss of se a rc h an d selection which at e v e ry sta g e biases
the outcome tow ards th e p a irin g of m irro r im ages. B ut m ar
riage also r e p re s e n ts a calcu lated decision to d e sist from
f u r th e r s e a rc h , to cap italise on p r e s e n t a d v an tag e r a th e r th a n
seek in g fo r additional gain in th e fu tu r e (see B e c k e r, 1981).
Viewed in th is way m arriage and m igration will be seen
as m anifestations of re la te d phenom ena which can be u n d e r
22
T H E O R Y AND M E T H O D O L O G Y IN P O P U L A T I O N G E O G R A P H Y
stood w ith in th e c o n te x t o f c o n s tra in e d ch o ice. T h e a c to rs a re

ra tio n a l to a d e g r e e , th e y b a se th e ir d e cisio n s on sp ecific
c rite ria w hich a lth o u g h th e y may n o t be a r tic u la te d a re
re v e a le d b y p re f e r e n c e p a t t e r n s , b u t th e y m ust deal w ith
b o th a lim ited a p p re c ia tio n o f th e p r e s e n t an d an in a d e q u a te
know ledge o f th e f u tu r e . T h e s e a rc h is b ia se d a n d th e se lec
tion fa u lty .
L evels: M id d le -ra n g e T h eo ry
It h a s a lre a d y b een n o te d th a t m id d le -ra n g e th e o ry te n d s to
deal in a g g r e g a te s , w ith th e c h a r a c te r is tic s of g ro u p s o f
people v a rio u sly com bined. R ic h a rd A E a s te rlin 's (1969, 1971,
1978; E a s te rlin , Poliak a n d W achter, 1980) atte m p t to reco n cile
economic a n d sociological th e o rie s of f e r tility in to one com
po site th e o ry p ro v id e s an in te r e s tin g illu s tr a tio n of w hat may
be a tte m p te d w ith th is lev el of c o n c e p tu a lisa tio n . E a ste rlin
draw s from econom ics th e n o tio n th a t th e n u m b e r o f c h ild re n
b o rn may be a m a tte r o f p a r e n ts b a la n c in g c o s ts a n d r e t u r n s ;
th a t w hen th e s u p p ly of c h ild re n e x c e e d s th e dem and th e n
th e u se of m eans to re d u c e th e n u m b er of ad d itio n a l u n w a n te d
b ir th s will be a ffe c te d b y th e c o s ts of family lim itatio n . T he
su p p ly of c h ild re n is ta k e n to b e b io logically d e te rm in e d , b u t
b e c a u se E a ste rlin (1978) mainly d e a ls w ith s u rv iv in g c h ild re n
h is form ulation is a ffe c te d b y c h a n g e s in in fa n t a n d child
m o rtality . T h e dem and fo r c h ild re n will b e re la te d to social
norm s (c h ild re n h a v in g a v alu e fo r t h e i r own s a k e ) , b u t also
th e ris in g c o s ts of r e a r in g ’h ig h q u a lity f c h ild re n (p ro lo n g e d
ed u catio n e tc ) an d th e ir d im in ish in g v a lu e a s c o n tr ib u to rs to
th e family econom y. E a ste rlin a r g u e s th a t in p re -m o d e rn
so cieties th e r e will b e a h ig h dem and fo r c h ild re n a n d th a t it
will ex ceed s u p p ly , b u t th a t w ith m o d ernisation su p p ly will
ris e an d dem and will fa ll. E v en tu ally su p p ly will meet dem and
as e ffe c tiv e m eans o f b i r t h c o n tro l b o th becom e c h e a p e r and
a re u s e d to avoid u n w a n te d b i r t h s . E a ste rlin (1971) u s e d a
sim ilar th e o re tic a l fram ew ork to ta c k le th e q u e s tio n , does
hum an fe r tility a d ju s t to th e e n v iro n m en t? H ere th e e n v iro n
ment is d iv id e d in to th r e e : th e f r o n tie r , s e ttle d r u r a l com
m unities a n d u rb a n com m unities. T h e p re d ic tio n is th a t f e r
tility will b e h ig h e s t on th e f r o n tie r w h ere th e dem and for
c h ild re n a s a so u rc e of a d d itio n a l la b o u r will b e h ig h e s t and
th e m eans of a ffe c tin g fe rtility le a s t a c c e s s ib le , w h ilst in th e
u rb a n a re a s fe r tility will be a t i t s low est fo r th e r e c h ild re n
will not b e in s u c h dem and a n d m eans of b ir th c o n tro l a re
lik ely to b e more a v a ila b le . T h e s e ttle d r u r a l com m unities a re
th o u g h t to o ccu p y an in te rm e d ia te p o sitio n along th e con
tin u u m . B roadly s p e a k in g , E a ste rlin fin d s th a t h is p re d ic tio n s
a re b o rn e o u t in n in e te e n th - c e n tu r y m id -w est A m erica.
T h e re a re two im p o rta n t p o in ts h e r e . F ir s t, E a ste rlin
draw s from an e x is tin g , well e s ta b lis h e d th e o re tic a l fram ew ork
23
T HEO RY AND METHODOLOGY IN P O P U L A T IO N G EOGRAPHY
p rin c ip le s which he ap p lies to a p a rtic u la r c a se , a g g re g a te

dem ographic b e h a v io u r. S econd, th e th e o ry so c o n stru c te d
yields em pirically te sta b le h y p o th e se s (fe rtility will be h ig h e r/
lower in x when y holds e tc ) which make th e th e o ry fa lsi-
fiable. T hese re p re s e n t two sig n ifican t a sp e c ts o f m iddle-
ran g e th e o rie s. M iddle-range th e o rie s will of n e ce ssity have to
face a num ber of common pro b lem s, ho w ever. Most o f th e se
relate to v alid atio n , b u t some also o c c u r b ecause g ro u p s of
people, o r a re a s a re u sed as re fe re n c e u n its . For exam ple,
th e ecological fallacy and th e problem of eq u ifin ality b o th
delimit formal te s tin g p ro c e d u re s . D espite th e se o fte n
ob scu red draw b ack s m id d le-ran g e th e o ry re p re s e n ts th e most
commonly employed level of th e o re tic a l dev ice. A dditional
exam ples will be d isc u sse d below (u n d e r 2 ).
Levels: G rand T heory

Amongst population g e o g ra p h e rs th e most widely u sed g ra n d
th e o ry is u n d o u b ted ly th a t of th e dem ographic tra n s itio n . In
its original form , as conceived b y F. W. N otestein (1945), th e
th eo ry had d istin c t se c tio n s. T he f ir s t com prised a d e s c rip
tion of th e dem ographic situ atio n in p re -S e c o n d World War
Europe and Am erica. The second sk e tc h e d ch an g es in b ir th
and d eath ra te s such th a t b o th w ere in itially h ig h , death
ra te s fell while b ir th r a te s rem ained h ig h , and fin a lly , b irth
ra te s fell to match d eath ra te s a t low lev els. T he th ird
defined th re e sta g e s in term s o f population grow th ra te s :
slow, ra p id and slow. The fo u rth an d final section p ro p o sed
an e x p lan ato ry mechanism (a g ric u ltu ra l, in d u s tria l a n d sa n i
ta ry rev o lu tio n s) which fo rced m ortality down and ultim ately,
via th e sp re a d of c o n tra c e p tio n , rem oved th e p ro p s to high
fe rtility . In su b se q u e n t reform u latio n s N o testein 's th e o ry has
been e n la rg e d an d made more flex ib le, b u t it still re ta in s its
basis in h isto rical an alo g y , its th re e sta g e s and its in siste n c e
th a t dem ographic ch an g e re s u lts from cum ulative socio
economic ad v an ces (o ften term ed m o d ern isatio n ). All form s of
tra n sitio n th e o ry , w h e th e r o rig in al o r re v is e d , deal with
long-term change in th e e n tire dem ographic system which th e y
re g a rd as a consequence of sig n ifican t c h an g es in th e econ
omic technological an d political o rd e rin g of so cie ty . T he fam
ilia r re p re se n ta tio n of th e th e o ry in model form (time se rie s
fo r b ir th an d d e a th ra te s ) an d th e in e v ita b ility w ith which
successive p opulations re p lic a te its g e n e ra l shap e h av e given
th e e x p lan ato ry section of th e th e o ry an im m ortality which is
no lo n g er d e se rv e d (se e Woods, 1979, 6 ).
T h ere a re th re e re a so n s fo r ta k in g th is view . F irs t,
dem ographic tra n s itio n th e o ry may be said to be too g e n e ra l,
it lacks th e specificity of a m id d le-ran g e th e o ry and is th u s
difficult to e v a lu a te . Second, th e re is no mechanism w ithin
th e th e o ry th a t will g e n e ra te th e se q u e n tia l movement betw een
sta g e s (3 m ust follow 2, 2 m ust follow 1 ). T h ird , and p e rh a p s
24
T HEORY AND METHODOLOGY IN P O P U L A T IO N G EOGRAPHY
of most im po rtan ce, th e u se of h isto ric a l analogy is likely to

provide a fau lty logic (w hat will h ap p en in x will hap p en in
y ). It is now obvious th a t th e dem ography of h isto ric al
societies was b o th more v a rie d a n d more complex th a n had
been p re v io u sly been th o u g h t; th a t p a rtic u la r c u ltu re s w ere
likely to have th e ir own specific dem ographic regim es; and
th a t dem ographic e x p e rie n c e m ight not be c u ltu ra lly tr a n s f e r
able. For exam ple, it a p p e a rs th a t economic developm ent
coupled w ith a d m in istrativ e o rg a n isa tio n w ere mainly re sp o n
sible fo r in itia tin g th e se c u la r decline of m ortality th a t b egan
in Europe and N orth America in th e la te n in e te e n th c e n tu r y ,
b u t in Latin Am erica, Asia an d A frica, w here m ortality has
fallen it h as done so la rg e ly v ia th e in tro d u c tio n of European
and American technological e x p erien ce (esp ecially in term s o f
medical scie n c e , chem otherapy an d p u b lic h ea lth ) a n d h a s not
necessarily been linked w ith economic g ro w th . In Europe th e
fall in child th e n in fa n t m ortality te n d e d to re in fo rc e th e need
for and a d v a n ta g e s of family lim itation, b u t th e su d d e n fall in
m ortality am ongst most T h ird World so cieties could only lead
to ra p id population grow th since n u p tia lity and m arital fe r
tility w ere incapab le of a d ju s tin g so q u ick ly to su c h dram atic
changes in th e absen ce of re q u ire d social and economic d ev el
opm ents. T he su b se q u e n t fall in m arital fe rtility w hich has
been o b se rv e d am ongst p o p u latio n s in L atin America an d c e r
tain p a r ts of Asia (especially th e islan d s ta te s ) re la te s not
only to th e e ffe c ts of u rb a n -in d u s tria l g ro w th , b u t also th e
v ario u s family p lan n in g program m es in tro d u c e d w ith g o v e rn
ment s u p p o rt and W estern en co u rag em en t. In C hina th e fe r
tility tra n s itio n is b e in g p lan n ed in d e p e n d e n tly of m odern
isatio n . (T h e re is a volum inous lite r a tu r e on th e se is s u e s , b u t
Caldwell, 1982, B ulatao an d Lee, 1983; Woods, 1982, p ro v id e
in tro d u c tio n s .) One way to b eg in th e developm ent o f a g ra n d
th e o ry of dem ographic b e h a v io u r would b e to a rg u e in term s
of th e fa c to rs th a t cou ld , in a b s tr a c t, in flu en ce dem ographic
s tr u c tu r e s . T he following p ro v id e s an exam ple.
A. F acto rs th a t will te n d to re d u c e m ortality
1. A dvances in medical an d d r u g technology
2. Economic developm ent
3. More eq u itab le income d is trib u tio n
4. Im proved q u a n tity an d q u ality o f food su p p ly
5. Im proved q u a lity of w ater su p p ly
6. E ffective local an d national governm ent
7. Im proved ed u catio n (especially h e a lth ed u catio n )
8. Political sta b ility
B. F acto rs th a t will te n d to re d u c e m arital fe rtility
1. The availability of effe c tiv e c o n tra c e p tiv es
2. U rbanisation
3. In d u stria lisa tio n
4. Im proved ed ucation (especially fo r women)
5. R ising social s ta tu s of women
25
T HEORY AND METHODOLOGY IN P O P U L A T IO N GEOGRAPHY
6. Decline in in fa n t an d child m ortality

7. R e stric tio n s on th e economic v alu e of ch ild re n
8. R ising liv in g s ta n d a rd s
A lthough many of th e se fa c to rs a re a sso c ia te d , ch ange in each
one is capable of e ffe c tin g a n eg a tiv e c h an g e in m ortality o r
marital fe rtility . D em ographic tra n s itio n th e o ry c o n sists o f a
fixed list of fa c to rs which a re th o u g h t to be u n iv e rsally
a p p ro p ria te . The scheme p ro v id e d h e re h as a more flexible
b a sis which allows for th e s u b stitu tio n of fa c to rs . For
in s ta n c e , m arital fe rtility may be re d u c e d as a re s u lt of B1 +
B4 in th e ab sen ce of B2 + B3. No one is on its own su fficie n t
o r n e c e s sa ry , n o r is th e exclu sio n of a fa c to r in a p a rtic u la r
case evidence fo r its irre le v a n c e elsew h ere.
The function of g ra n d th e o ry in th is in sta n c e would be
to e sta b lish th e lis ts of fa c to rs , to sp ecify th e associations
involved (p o sitiv e o r n e g a tiv e ) an d to make clear how th e
dem ographic v a ria b le s (m ortality and m arital fe rtility above)
are them selves in te rre la te d in some total dem ographic system .
It would be fo r middle ra n g e th e o ry to h y p o th e sise on th e
fac to rs inv o lv ed in a p a rtic u la r case (C hina p o st 1949, n in e
te e n th -c e n tu ry E urope e tc ) an d to ex p lo re th e em pirical v alid
ity of such h y p o th e se s.
T he exam ples given above w ere in te n d e d merely to illu s
tra te some of th e more commonly reco g n ised problem s in
th eo ry c o n stru c tio n an d to do so via in s ta n c e s draw n from
population g eo g rap h y o r d em ography. F ig u re 1.2 also lis ts
five p a rtic u la r m ethodologies which will co ntinue to have sig
nificance in g eo g ra p h y . T he rem ain d er of th is c h a p te r is
devoted to a b rie f review of th e im portance and p o te n tial of
each of th e se m ethodologies for th e stu d y of population by
g e o g ra p h e rs.
1 Empiricism
Both dem ography and population g eo g rap h y have been domi
nated by m ethodology th a t is im plicitly em pirical. Much a tte n
tion has been given to th e d e sc rip tio n of p a tte r n , estim ation,
modelling an d fo re c a stin g , b u t re la tiv e ly le ss to in te rp re ta tio n
o r ex p lan atio n . S ta tistic a l d em o g rap h ers h ave developed effec
tiv e estim ation p ro c e d u re s b ased on in a d e q u a te c e n su s o r v ital
d ata w hilst population g e o g ra p h e rs have made a sig n ific an t
co n trib u tio n to th e developm ent of m ulti-regional dem ographic
acco u n tin g system s (see Woods an d R ees, 1986). Both re q u ire
the c o n stru c tio n of formal m athem atical th e o rie s , b u t n e ith e r
is immediately co n cern ed w ith th e ex p lan ation of dem ographic
e v e n ts. G eo g rap h ers have also developed so p h istica te d te c h
niq u es fo r th e h an d lin g of sp atially o rg a n ised population d ata
and especially th e ir u se in autom ated c a rto g ra p h y .
Upon th is b a sis of m apping an d p lo ttin g , c o u n tin g and
d esc rib in g r e s ts a complex web of re s e a rc h th a t employ one
o r a num ber of o th e r m ethodologies.
26
2 Positivism
When q u e stio n s of a cau sal n a tu re a re a d d re s s e d th e n some
form of th e p o sitiv ist m ethodology is u su ally en g a g e d . Posi
tivism c o v ers a num ber of v a ria n ts on th e same them e; b u t
sup p o sed ly tr u e p ro p o sitio n s a re f ir s t s ta te d ex p licitly and
th e n su b jected to close s c ru tin y o r te s tin g . A lthough the
shortcom ings of th is ap p ro ach a re now rec o g n ised (some w ere
mentioned above) th e a sp ira tio n s o f positivism ap p lied to th e
human sciences a re laudable y e t bey o n d fu ll rea lisa tio n . In
th e stu d y of population th is m ethodology h a s b e en p u t to
good effect especially in th o se circu m stan ces th a t len d them
selves to causal modelling of a m u lti-v a ria te k in d . For
exam ple, sp atial v a ria tio n s in m o rtality , fe rtility an d m igration
have been re p eated ly tre a te d in th is w ay. Let u s tak e v a ri
ations in fe rtility as o u r illu stra tio n .
F e rtility levels will be d ire c tly in flu en ced b y m arital
fe rtility , illegitim ate fe rtility an d th e p ro p o rtio n o f th e female
population m arried . Each of th e se com ponents will b e affec ted
by o th e r c u ltu ra l, economic, social, political an d dem ographic
fac to rs whose association w ith th e d e p e n d en t com ponents o f
fe rtility may be h y p o th e sise d and id e n tifie d em pirically in
specific circum stance v ia th e co -v a ria tio n of fa c to rs and
com ponents o v er sp atial u n its . Some o f th e fa c to rs in flu en cin g
m arital fe rtility have a lre a d y been s u g g e s te d above (p 25). A
su b sta n tia l num ber of e x istin g s tu d ie s follow th is line o f
argum ent with v a ry in g d e g re e s of en lig h tenm ent (T eitelbaum ,
1984; A n k er, 1978; Bagozzi and Van Loo, 1978; see also
C adw allader, 1985 on m ig ratio n ).
H ow ever, th e a tte n d a n t problem s are v e ry obvious.
F ir s t, h y p o th e sis evaluation is u sually accom plished th ro u g h
m u ltip le-reg ressio n a n a ly sis which allows th e sig n s and
stre n g th s of association to be sp ecified , b u t d e p e n d s on the
fa c to rs b ein g q u a n tifia b le . S econd, asso ciatio n s may b e u n
stab le when th e scale of an aly sis is a lte re d . T h ird , fa c to rs
are likely to be h ighly in te r-d e p e n d e n t. F o u rth , th e co
variatio n of sta tis tic a l a ttr ib u te s w hilst p ro v id in g a means of
elim inating unlikely p ro p o sitio n s does not give an o p p o rtu n ity
to tra c e many of th e more id io sy n c ra tic p ro c e sse s in v o lv ed in
th e creatio n of dem ographic b e h a v io u r an d th u s p a tte r n s .
P a tte rn an aly sis b y its e lf simply skim s th e su rfa c e o f w hat is
o bserv ab le an d m easu rab le, it does not re la te well to th o se
a sp e c ts which may be in ta n g ib le y e t o f deep sig n ifican ce.
D espite th e se in h e re n t d raw b ack s cau sal modelling h a s been
used to some effect in population s tu d ie s .
S everal forms of positivism will rem ain im p o rtan t in
population g eo g rap h y an d d em ography, b u t now th e r e is fa r
more realism about th e scope of th e m ethodology, its
red u c tio n ist n a tu re and th e p o te n tia l of a lte rn a tiv e
ap p ro ach es.
27
THEORY AND METHODOLOGY IN P O P U L A T IO N G EOGRAPHY
3, 4 & 5 B ehaviouralism , Humanism an d S tru ctu ralism

F igure 1.2 list th re e of th e se a lte rn a tiv e ap p ro ac h e s: b e h a v
iouralism , humanism an d s tru c tu ra lis m . A lthough th e y a re all
commonly u se d in hum an g eo g ra p h y s tu d e n ts of population
have b een less a d v e n tu ro u s in ex p erim en tin g w ith them th a n
one might have e x p e c te d . T he b eh av io u ral app ro ach h as c e r
tainly p ro v e d of v alu e fo r th e stu d y of m igration decision
making and p ro b ab ly h as equ al p o te n tia l in u n scram bling th e
sequence of d ecisions invo lv ed in m arriage and family form a
tion . Its ch ief failings re la te to th e p relim inary assum ption of
ratio n al human b e h a v io u r an d th e d e g re e to which th e a tti
tu d e s and b e h a v io u r of in d iv id u a ls a re th o u g h t to be d e te r
minable (see Cox an d G olledge, 1981). T his methodology does
at least move th e r e s e a rc h e r c lo se r to p ro c e ss recognition by
focusing on m otivation an d not ju s t p a tte rn -fo rm . Humanistic
geo graphy attem p ts a lo n g e r jo u rn e y to w ards th e ex p erien ce
of in d iv id u als via 'th e u n d e rs ta n d in g of humain action th ro u g h
th e stu d y of m eanings allocated to th e elem ent of th e in d iv id
u a l's life-w orld' (J o h n sto n , 1983, 5 7 ). T he r e s e a rc h e r is
obliged to im agine th a t w hich th e in d iv id u al ex p e rie n c es and
to asso ciate w ith it not h is o r h e r own m eaning, b u t th a t of
th e object of s tu d y . The e x e rc ise is d e lib erate ly su b je c tiv e ,
th e re is no attem p t a t p r io r h y p o th e sis o r e x p lan a tio n , u n d e r
sta n d in g an d in te rp re ta tio n a re th e go als. Amongst geo
g ra p h e rs in g en eral th e hum anistic ap p ro ac h has been most
widely developed in lan d scap e s tu d ie s , w here its m eaning is
in te rp re te d from th e in h a b ita n t's p e rs p e c tiv e , an d in u rb a n
social g e o g ra p h y , w here p a rtic ip a n t o b se rv a tio n o ffe rs some
p ro sp e c t of illum ination (see Lowenthal 1961; Ley and
Sam uels, 1978; Ja c k so n , 1983). T h ese m ethods will also be
a p p ro p ria te to u n d e rs ta n d re a c tio n s to dem ographic e v e n ts
(a rra n g e d m a rria g e s, re p e a te d p re g n a n c ie s e tc ) th ro u g h th e
feelings of th o se in d iv id u als who a re d ire c tly in v o lv ed .
How do C hinese p e a s a n ts re sp o n d to th e o n e-ch ild family
policy? What do unem ployed Scots feel about m ig ratin g to
London? What is th e m eaning of ch ild re n fo r th e Indian
family? All of th e se q u e stio n s may be tack led via th e hum an
istic m ethodology. Yet once again th e re a re c e rta in d iffic u lt
ie s. F ir s t, th e r e s u lts o b tain ed b y th e r e s e a rc h e r will n o t be
replicable in th e se n se th a t p o sitiv ist a n a ly sis may be r e p ro
d u ced . Second, th e level of u n d e rs ta n d in g o b ta in e d , w hilst in
one sen se d e e p , will not tr a n s f e r easily to th e p ra c tic a l
req u irem en ts of p la n n e rs an d fo re c a s te rs . T h ird ly , th e re is
little agreem ent on ex actly w hat p ro c e d u re s a r e to b e
followed, th e in v e s tig a to r is left to h is o r h e r own in tu itio n in
th e se a rc h fo r self-k n o w led g e. T h ese a re im portant problem s,
y e t more could be le a rn t from th is a p p ro a c h which would sh e d
light on th e com plicated p ré c ip ita n ts of actio n .
T he la st methodology m entioned in F ig u re 1.2 is s tr u c
tu ralism . Again th e re is no sin g le a g re e d d e fin itio n , r a th e r
th e ap p ro ach h as been given a label th a t co v e rs a n u m ber of
28
d ifferen t n u an ces of opinion. One c e n tra l them e, how ever,

re fe rs to th e significance of c o n s tra in ts on human action
which b o th limit an d enable c e rta in b e h a v io u r p a tte r n s to
em erge. In th e M arxist tra d itio n th e s tr u c tu r e o f so ciety is
conditioned b y th e dom inant mode o f p ro d u ctio n an d its
related social form ation (C a rv e r, 1982). T he b e h a v io u r of
individuals is not a m atter of free will, r a th e r th e form o f
society im poses c o n s tra in ts an d o b lig atio ns w hich se v erely
limit choice. B ehaviour is not d e te rm in ed , how ever. The
org an isatio n of th e c ap italist sy stem , fo r exam ple, re q u ire s
w orkers to sell th e ir la b o u r pow er to th e ow ners o f th e
means o f p ro d u ctio n fo r w ages; it is b a sed on th e p riv a te
ow nership of p r o p e r ty , an d com petition betw een p ro d u ctio n
u n its , p ro d u c e rs an d em ployees. T hese re la tio n sh ip s in fluence
all o th e r a sp e c ts of so c ie ty , in c lu d in g dem ographic b e h a v io u r.
Marx was him self most co n cern ed to r e fu te th e n a tu ra l
istic re p re se n ta tio n of dem ographic sy stem s which is to be
found in M althus's p rin c ip le of p o p u latio n . In i t s place he
ad v an ced , b u t did not e la b o ra te , th e id ea th a t each mode of
pro d u ctio n (an cien t s la v e ry , feudalism , capitalism , socialism ,
Asiatic) would have its own p a rtic u la r ’law of p o p u latio n 1.
U nder capitalism th e re is need fo r an ’in d u s tria l re s e rv e
arm y’ th e relativ e size of which will b e in v e rse ly re la te d to
wage r a te s . The 's u r p lu s pop u latio n ' so g e n e ra te d will com
p rise th e p o o rest section of so c ie ty , th e one su b jec te d to th e
hig h est d eath r a te s , b u t th e one h av in g th e h ig h e st fe rtility
(Woods, 1983, 1986).
A lthough M arx's concept of h isto ric a l materialism p ro
vides th e most clearly a rtic u la te d b a sis fo r a s tr u c tu r a lis t
approach (as seen in H arv ey , 1973) sc h o la rs of M arxian social
th e o ry a re much p reo ccu p ied by th e in te rn a l te n sio n s th a t
ex ist betw een th e d e s ire s of in d iv id u als a n d th e n e ed s of
society , an d th u s betw een th e life th a t in d iv id u als make for
them selves an d th a t p re s c rib e d fo r them b y w ider social
g ro u p in g s. The concept of s tru c tu ra tio n h a s been developed
to reconcile some of th e se te n s io n s , in an in telle ctu a l se n se at
le a st. G iddens (1984) h a s a rg u e d for a com bination of hum an
istic concep ts w ith th o se of a more form alised stru c tu ra lism so
th at in d iv id u als' actio n s would a p p e a r conditioned by th e
s tru c tu ra l c o n tex t w ithin which th e y fin d th em selv es, b u t
th ey would also be capable of ac tin g to c h an g e th a t c o n tex t
and not m erely re a c tin g to i t . Human ag en cy would b e given
an im portant role in a ffe c tin g 'life -w o rld ', b u t th a t se t o f
relatio n sh ip s an d m eanings would also have a d e e p e r sig n ifi
cance em anating from th e way in which society a s a whole is
o rd e re d . The scep tic may see th is m erely as an accommodation
betw een a naive idealism and an o v e r-rig id m aterialism . Yet
th e re a re good re a so n s fo r a more p o sitiv e re sp o n se ,
especially from population g e o g ra p h e rs, who a re concerned
with b o th explanation an d u n d e rs ta n d in g , sp atia lly a rtic u la te d
social c o n s tru c ts an d in d iv id u al decision m aking. T he impli
29
THEORY AND METHODOLOGY IN P O P U L A T IO N GEO GR A PHY
cations fo r em pirical re s e a rc h rem ain u n c le a r, as y e t, b u t

th e re a re some slig h t sig n s o f re o rie n ta tio n am ongst some
p ra c titio n e rs of th e more single-m inded a p p ro ac h es (see
Woods, 1985, fo r ex am p les).
BACKWARDS AND FORWARDS
The th e o rie s an d m ethodologies sk e tc h e d above p ro v id e

exam ples of some of th e id e a s c u rre n tly in vogue am ongst
social s c ie n tists whose co n cern is w ith p o p u latio n . Each of th e
app ro ach es h as a d v a n ta g e s and lim itations, none o ffe r even
th e p ro sp e c t of com plete ex p lan atio n o r u n d e rs ta n d in g y e t
none can b e ig n o re d . T h is p lu ra lity of a p p ro ac h es is only to
b e welcomed, it re fle c ts a h e te ro d o x y , a m ethodological
g ard en of d e lig h ts. T h e re is no lo n g e r any need fo r e c le c ti
cism, choosing th e ap p ro ach to su it th e q u e stio n , a problem
may be tack led u sin g a num ber of a p p ro a ch e s each one of
which will sh ed new lig h t from a d iffe re n t p e rs p e c tiv e . Nor is
th e re need for com petition betw een m ethodologies since each
will w ork to it s own epistem o lo g y . T he th r e e levels of th e o ry
outlined e a rlie r will also te n d to complement one a n o th e r.
F or th e population g e o g ra p h e r a num ber of v e ry s u b
stan tial problem s do rem ain, how ever.
1. How should popu latio n g eo g rap h y be defined?

T his is an im p o rta n t, alth o u g h ted io u s q u e stio n .
T h is c h a p te r ad v o cates th e u se of a narrow d e fi
nition which em phasises th e d iffe re n c es betw een
hum an, u rb a n and population g e o g ra p h y . T he last
m entioned h a v in g an in n e r core which s tr e s s e s
sp atial v a ria tio n s in m o rta lity , fe rtility and
m igration, an d th u s th e d is trib u tio n an d s tr u c tu r e of
population.
2. How may th e influ en ce of population g eo g rap h y be
ad v anced w ithin g eo g rap h y an d in population stu d ie s
in general?
The la tte r will be accom plished when g e o g ra p h e rs
adopt dem ographic te c h n iq u e s; p e rsu a d e demo
g r a p h e r s , b y exam ple, of th e v alu e of p o s t-p o sitiv ist
ap p ro ach es; and red u c e th e ir p reo ccu p atio n w ith
m igration. T he form er would be enhan ced b y the
co n cen tratio n of e ffo rt on p a rtic u la r q u e stio n s (1
a b o v e ), th e developm ent o f consciously th eo re tic al
a n a ly se s; and th e adv an ce of m odelling, fo rec astin g
an d d a ta h a n d lin g /d isp la y te c h n iq u e s (th e 'u se fu l
know ledge' a p p ro a c h ).
3. What s u b s ta n tiv e q u e stio n s rem ain u n an sw ered in
population s tu d ie s th a t could b e tackled b y geo
g ra p h e rs?
30
O bviously th e re a re a num ber of is s u e s b u t th r e e will be

m entioned h e re b y way of illu s tra tio n . F ir s t, th e re is as
y e t no com prehensive th e o ry of m igration which com bines
th e o re tic a l levels and m ethodologies (in d iv id u als
g ro u p s , cau sal models - hum anistic in te r p re ta tio n s e tc ) .
Yet h e re is an area in which em pirical r e s e a rc h by geo
g ra p h e rs h as b een fru itfu l and is most a b u n d a n t.
S econd, th e sp atial v a ria tio n s in contem porary demo
grap h ic regim es betw een c u ltu ra l re g io n s rem ain only
p artially u n d e rsto o d w hilst th e ir h isto ric a l developm ent
has larg ely b een ig n o re d o u tsid e E urope an d America.
T h ird , th e application of fo re c a stin g m ethods via geo
g rap h ical data b a se s to iss u e s of environm ental m anage
m ent, h o u sin g policy and social p la n n in g h a s c o n sid e r
able u n re a lise d p o te n tia l to which population g e o g ra p h e rs
can c o n trib u te th e ir sk ills.
T h ere need be no com placency re g a rd in g p a st achievem ents

nor confusion of fu tu re p u rp o s e ; population g e o g ra p h e rs have
im portant c o n trib u tio n s to make to th e ir te a c h in g su b je c t,
th e ir re se a rc h d iscipline an d to closely re la te d d iscip lin es,
especially dem ography.
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E asterlin, R .A . (1978) 'T he Economics and Sociology of F er
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of Changing F e rtility , 57-133, Princeton U niversity
P re ss, P rinceton, NJ
E asterlin, R .A ., Poliak, R .A . and W achter, H .L. (1980)
'Tow ard a More General Economic Model of F ertility
D etermination: Endogenous P referen ces and N atural F er
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Change in Developing C o u n trie s, 81—135, Chicago Uni
v e rsity P re ss, Chicago
G iddens, A. (1984) The C onstitution of S ociety, Polity P re ss,
Cambridge
Greenwood, H .J. (1981) Migration and Economic Growth in the
United S ta te s , Academic P re ss, New York
H arvey, H.W. (1973) Social Ju stice and th e C ity , Edward
A rnold, London
Jackson, P. (1983) 'P rinciples and Problems of P articipant
O bservation', G eografisk A n n aler, 658, 39-46
Johnston, R .J . (1983) Philosophy and Human G eography,
Edward A rnold, London
Jones, H .R . (1981) A Population G eography, H arper and
Row, London
32
K osinski, L .A . (1984) 'T h e Roots of P opulation G eography' in

J . I . C larke ( e d . ) , P opulation an d G e o g ra p h y , 11-24,
Pergam on, O xford
L eibenstein, H. (1976) B eyond Economic Man, H arv ard Uni
v e r s ity P re s s , C am bridge, Mass
Ley, D. an d Sam uels, H .S . ( e d s .) (1978) H um anistic Geo
g ra p h y , Croom Helm, London
L ieber, S .R . (1978) 'P lace U tility an d M ig ration', G eografiska
A n n a le r, 608, 16-27
Low enthal, t). (1961) 'G e o g ra p h y , E x p erience a n d Im agin
atio n : T ow ards a G eographical E pistem ology', A nnals of
th e A ssociation of American G e o g ra p h e rs, 51, 241-260
M erton, R .K . (1967) On T h eo retical Sociology, F ree P re s s ,
New York
M orrill, R .L . and P itts , F .R . (1967) 'M arriag e, M igration and
th e Mean Inform ation F ie ld ', A nnals o f th e A ssociation o f
American G e o g ra p h e rs, 57, 401-422
Newman, J .L . and M atzke, GTE. (1984) Population : P a tte r n s ,
Dynamics and P ro s p e c ts , P ren tice Hall, Englewood C liffs,
NJ
Noin, D. (1979) G éographie de la P o p u latio n , M asson, P aris
Noin, D. (1984) Ee Champ d 'E tu d e s de” la D ém ographie',
E space, P o p u latio n s, S o c ié té s, 2 ( 2 ) , 65-70
N otestein, F.W. (1945) 'P opulation: T he Lone View' in T .H .
Schultz ( e d .) Food for th e W orld, 36-57, Chicago Uni
v e rs ity P re s s , Chicago
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R ural D o rset, 1837-1936: A S tudy o f M arriage D ista n c e s',
T ra n sa c tio n s, In s titu te of B ritish G e o g ra p h e rs, 461,
liS -lS S
P ry o r, R .J . (1984) 'M ethodological Problem s in Population
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lation , 26-42, Pergam on, O xford
R hind, D. ( e d .) (1983) A C ensus U se r's H andbook, M ethuen,
London
S k in n e r, Q. ( e d .) (1985) The R e tu rn o f G rand T h eo ry in th e
Human S cie n c e s, C am bridge U n iv ersity P r e s s , C am bridge
S p eare, A. (1971) 'A Cost B enefit Model o f R ural to U rban
M igration in T aiw an', Population S tu d ie s , 251, 117-130
T eitelbaum , M .S. (1984) T he B ritish F e rtility D ecline,
P rinceton U n iv ersity P r e s s , P rin c e to n , NJ
T re w a rth a , G .T . (1953) 'A Case fo r Population G e o g ra p h y ',
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W ebber, H .J . (1972) Impact of U n c e rta in ty on L ocation, MIT

P re s s , C am bridge, Mass
White, P .E . (1981) 'M igration a t th e M icro-scale: I n tra -
parochial Movements in R ural N orm andy, 1946-54',
T ra n sa c tio n s, In s titu te of B ritis h G e o g ra p h e rs, New
S eries, 6, 451-470
33
White, P.E . and Woods, R .I. ( e d s .) (1980) The Geographical

Impact of M igration, Longman, London
Wolpert, J . (196i) 'T he Decision Process in a Spatial Con
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Wolpert, J . (1965) 'B ehavioural A spects of th e Decision to
M igrate', Papers and Proceedings of th e Regional Science
A ssociation, 15, 159-169
Wolpert, J . (1966) 'M igration as an Adjustment to E nviron
mental S tr e s s ', Jo u rn al of Social I s s u e s , 22, 92-102
Woods, R .I. (1979) Population A nalysis in G eography,
Longman, London
Woods, R .I. (1982) T heoretical Population G eography,
Longman, London
Woods, R .I. (1983) 'On th e Long-term R elationship Between
Fertility and the S tan d ard of L iving', G enus, 39, 21-35
Woods, R .I. (1985) 'Population S tu d ie s', P ro g ress in Human
G eography, 9, 278-282
Woods, R .I. (1986) M althus, Marx and Population C rises' in
R .J . Johnston and P .J . Taylor ( e d s .) , A World in
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Woods, R .I. and Ilinde, P .R .A . (1985) 'N uptiality and Age at
M arriage in N in eteen th -cen tu ry E ngland', Journal of
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Woods, R .I. and R ees, P.H . ( e d s .) (1986) Population S tru c
tu re s and Models, Allen and Unwin, London
34
C h a p te r Two
THE BRITISH AND UNITED STA TES1 CENSUSES

OF POPULATION
J . C . D ew dney a n d D. R hind
INTRODUCTION
Of all th e s o u rc e s of d a ta u se d in m odern p o p u la tio n geo

g r a p h y , none is r ic h e r th a n th e n a tio n a l c e n s u s , w hich
p ro v id e s a v a s t r a n g e of in fo rm atio n on th e p o p u la tio n ’s siz e ,
d is tr ib u tio n , s t r u c t u r e , liv in g c o n d itio n s a n d m ovem ents. T h e
p ra c tic e o f c o u n tin g p eo p le h a s a le n g th y h is to r y , which
e x te n d s b ack o v e r h u n d r e d s if not th o u s a n d s of y e a r s , b u t
th e c e n s u s a s we know it to d a y is e s s e n tia lly a p ro d u c t of th e
n in e te e n th a n d tw e n tie th c e n tu r ie s . E a rlie r c o u n ts w ere
c a rrie d o u t by a u th o r itie s w ith some sp e c ific p u rp o s e in m ind,
su c h a s ta x a tio n o r m ilitary c o n s c rip tio n , w ere u su a lly con
fin ed to a p a r tic u la r se c tio n o f th e p o p u la tio n - most
commonly a d u lt males - an d w ere n e v e r p u b lis h e d in fu ll.
T h e m odern c e n s u s h a s b e e n d e fin e d (U n ite d N atio n s,
1967) a s " th e to ta l p ro c e s s of c o lle c tin g , com piling, e v a lu
a tin g , a n a ly s in g a n d p u b lis h in g d e m o g rap h ic, econom ic an d
social d a ta p e r ta in in g , a t a sp e c ifie d tim e, to all p e r s o n s in a
c o u n try o r in a w ell-delim ited p a r t of a c o u n tr y ." T h is im
p lies an o ffic ia l, g o v ern m en tal activ ity » a co m p reh en siv e
co v e ra g e of th e e n tir e p o p u la tio n an d th e p u b lic a tio n o f a se t
of d a ta r e f e r r in g to a sp e c ific p o in t in tim e. Also im plicit is
th e id ea th a t a c e n s u s sh o u ld b e one of a r e g u la r s e r ie s ,
th o u g h th is d e s ira b le s itu a tio n h a s so f a r b ee n a c h iev e d in
only a m inority of c o u n tr ie s , in c lu d in g th e U nited K ingdom .
The m odern c e n s u s in v o lv e s m uch more th a n a sim ple h e a d
co u n t an d th e p u b lic a tio n of to ta l n u m b e rs: it also in v o lv es
th e collection a n d p u b lic a tio n of in fo rm atio n on many of th e
c h a r a c te r is tic s o r ’a t tr i b u t e s ’ of th e in d iv id u a l, su c h as
h is /h e r s e x , a g e , m arital s t a t u s , b ir th p la c e , economic a c
tiv ity , social c la s s , e t c . , to g e th e r w ith d a ta on th e
com position of th e h o u se h o ld s among w hich th e p o p u la tio n is
d is tr ib u te d . In m any c o u n tr ie s , in c lu d in g B rita in , th e c e n su s
co llects a d d itio n a l, n o n -d e m o g ra p h ic info rm ation a p p e rta in in g
to h o u se h o ld s, c o v e rin g s u c h m a tte rs a s hou seh o ld te n u r e a n d
am en ities, n u m b e r of room s a n d ty p e of d w ellin g . T h e p u b
35
B R I T I S H AND U N IT E D S T A T E S C E N S U S E S O F PO P U L A T IO N
lish ed r e s u lts a re not confined to r e p o rtin g th e nu m b ers of

people o r h o useholds w ith p a rtic u la r a ttr ib u te s , b u t a re p r e
sen ted in th e form of complex c ro s s-ta b u la tio n s of two or
more c h a ra c te ris tic s , th e cells of which a re r e f e rr e d to as
c en su s 'v a ria b le s '.
A few, sm all-scale national c e n su se s w ere ta k e n before
th e end of th e e ig h te e n th c e n tu ry (Iceland 1703, Sweden
1749, Norway 1769) b u t th e f ir s t d etailed c e n su s of a
population of se v e ra l millions was th a t of th e U nited S ta te s in
1790. B ritain and France followed su it in 1801 a n d fir s t
cen su se s w ere held in most E uropean c o u n trie s d u rin g th e
n in e te e n th c e n tu r y , th e la te s t - an d b ig g e st - b ein g th a t of
the R ussian Empire in 1897. N in eteen th c e n tu ry f irs t c e n su se s
also o c c u rre d in 'E u ro p e O v e rse a s' (C a n ad a , New Zealand
1851; A u stralia 1881), in se v e ra l Latin American c o u n trie s and
in India (1881), b u t most of th e 'T h ird World' was not
covered u n til well in to th e tw e n tie th c e n tu r y , o ften not u n til
a fte r World War II (G hana 1948, N igeria 1952, Zaire 1974).
THE BRITISH CENSUS
O rigin an d Development
The U nited Kingdom h as one of th e w o rld 's lo n g est s e rie s of
te n -y e a rly (d ecennial) c e n su se s - eig h te e n in all - of which
th e f irs t was held in 1801 an d th e most re c e n t in 1981; only
1941, becau se of wartim e co n d itio n s, is m issing from th e
s e rie s . An additional 10 p e r cen t sample c e n su s was held in
1966, b u t p ro p osals fo r 'm id -term ' sam ples in 1976 an d 1986
were re je c te d on g ro u n d s of economy.
With th e p assag e o f tim e, th e B ritish ce n su s h as become
in c re a sin g ly com plex, collecting and p u b lish in g a
p ro g re ssiv e ly g re a te r volume and ra n g e of inform ation; major
chan g es have also o c c u rre d in th e o rg a n isatio n of th e ce n su s
o peration an d th e geog rap h ical b a se fo r th e collection and
publication of th e d a ta .
T he f ir s t fo u r c e n su se s (1801, 1811, 1821, 1831) r e
corded only th e n u m b ers of males and fem ales in each house
and fam ily, w ith a simple occupational breakdow n in to five
categ o ries: p e rso n s in a g r ic u ltu r e , tr a d e , m a n u fa ctu rin g ,
h a n d ic ra fts an d 'o th e r s '; d e ta ils w ere also collected on th e
num bers of h o u se s, families p e r house and w h e th e r th e
houses were v acan t o r o ccu p ied . A q u e stio n on age was ad ded
in 1821.
T he 1841 c e n su s re c o rd e d much th e same inform ation,
b u t th e re w ere im p o rtan t o rg an isatio n al c h a n g e s. T he h o u se
hold became th e basic u n it of enum eration and th e completion
of th e c e n su s form (o r 's c h e d u le ') becam e th e re sp o n sib ility
of th e head of th e h o u seh o ld , a s s is te d w here n e c e ssa ry by
th e E num erator. T he local co n d u ct of th e c en su s in E ngland
and Wales was tr a n s f e r r e d from th e P a rish O v e rse e r to th e
36
B R I T I S H AND U N IT E D S T A T E S C E N S U S E S O F P O P U L A T IO N
R e g istra r of B irth s , M arriages an d D e a th s, a p o st e sta b lish e d

when v ital re g istra tio n becam e com pulsory in 1837. T his
change did not o ccu r in S cotland u n til 1855 a n d th e 1841 and
1851 c e n s u s e s , like th e ir p r e d e c e s s o rs , w ere o rg a n ise d b y th e
official schoolm aster o r 'o th e r fit p e rs o n ' in each p a ris h . By
1861, ho w ev er, th e whole of G reat B rita in had a uniform
o rganisation com prising E num erato rs re sp o n sib le to local
R e g is tra rs , who in tu r n re p o rte d to th e R e g istra rs-G e n e ra l o f
Scotland and of E ngland and Wales. U nder th is sy ste m , th e
basic te rrito ria l u n it became - an d rem ains to th is day - th e
Enum eration D istric t (E D ), a small piece o f te r r ito r y capable
of b ein g co v ered by one in d iv id u al.
For th e c e n su se s of 1841 to 1901 (1861 to 1901 in
Scotland) each E num erator re c o rd e d th e d e tails from th e
cen su s sch ed u les in an 'e n u m e ra to r's b o o k ', from which th e
d ata w ere e x tra c te d fo r tab u la tio n . From 1911 o n w ard s,
punched c a rd s w ere u sed fo r th e re c o rd in g and s o rtin g of
cen su s d ata an d th e e n u m e ra to rs' books h ave con tain ed only
adm inistrative d etails an d a h ead co u n t o f th e population of th e
ED; th e la tte r is u sed in th e p re p a ra tio n of th e population
to tals p u b lish e d in th e Prelim inary R ep o rts (se e below ). The
con fidentiality of th e b o o k s, as of th e sc h ed u le s th em selv es,
is m aintained fo r 100 y e a rs : th o se fo r th e c e n su se s of 1841 -
1881 in clu siv e have now been re le a se d a n d form an invaluable
reso u rce for detailed s tu d ie s of th e dem ographic and social
s tru c tu r e of th e population in th a t p e rio d .
The second h alf of th e n in e te e n th c e n tu ry also saw a
m arked in c re a se in th e amount of inform ation collected and
p u b lish ed . The 1851 c e n su s was much more detailed th a n its
p re d e c e sso rs: q u e stio n s w ere a sk e d not only on s e x , age and
occupation, b u t also on m arital s ta t u s , re latio n sh ip to th e
head of h o usehold, b ir th p la c e , n a tio n a lity , e d u ca tio n , econ
omic activ ity (w o rk in g , unem ployed, re tir e d ) an d w h e th e r th e
ind iv id u al was d e a f, dumb o r b lin d . In 1891, ad d itio n al q u e s
tions w ere ask ed on th e in d iv id u a l's employment s ta tu s
(em ployer, em ployee, self-em p lo y ed ), th e ability to sp eak
Welsh (in Wales) o r Gaelic (in S cotland) an d on th e num ber of
rooms in each h o u seh o ld 's accommodation. In 1911, th e in
d u s try in which th e in d iv id u al w orked was re c o rd e d , a s well
as h is /h e r o ccu p atio n , and th e r e w ere q u e stio n s on th e
fe rtility of m arried women.
From 1841 to 1901 in c lu siv e , d a ta collected a t th e ED
level w ere a g g re g a te d fo r publication b y R eg istra tio n S u b -
D istric ts , D istric ts and C o u n tie s, u n its which did not
necessarily coincide w ith th e co n tem p o rary a d m in istrativ e
divisions. T his so u rce of confusion was rem oved in 1911,
when th e g eographical b a se was a lte re d to fit th e p a tte rn o f
Local A u th o rity A reas. For th e c e n su se s of 1911 - 1971 in
clu siv e, EDs w ere su b d iv isio n s of W ards an d C ivil P a rish e s
and ED d ata could be a g g re g a te d th e n c e to LAAs, which
formed th e b a s is of ta b u la tio n s in th e p u b lish ed volum es. The
37
same applied in 1981 in E ngland an d Wales, b u t in Scotland

EDs w ere b ased on postcode u n its . C h an g es in th e b o u n d a rie s
of LAAs betw een su ccessiv e c e n su se s p re s e n t problem s in th e
stu d y of in te rc e n sa l c h a n g e : in th e case of population c o u n ts,
at le a s t, th e se can be overcome b y re fe re n c e to th e ta b le s
p u b lish ed in th e c e n su s volum es which re c o rd , in g re a t d e
ta il, th e b o u n d a ry ch an g es w hich have o c c u rre d since th e
p rev io u s c e n s u s , to g e th e r w ith th e n um bers of people a f
fected . Special a rra n g e m e n ts had to be made following th e
re o rg an isatio n of local g overnm ent in 1974/75. T hese involved
th e publication of two s e ts of 1971 c e n su s volum es, one giving
data fo r 1971 LAAs an d a second co n tain in g 1971 d a ta r e
ag g re g a te d to th e new LAAs e sta b lish e d in 1974/75.
T he amount and n a tu re of th e d ata collected co n tin u ed to
change th ro u g h su c c e ssiv e c e n s u s e s . In 1921, th e fe rtility
questio n was rep laced by one on n um bers of d e p en d e n t c h ild
re n , an d a new q u estio n was in tro d u c e d on place o f w ork,
p erm ittin g th e e a rlie st s tu d ie s of tra v e l-to -w o rk (com m uting).
The 1931 c e n su s om itted th e q u e stio n s on f e r tility /d e p e n d
en c y , education an d place of w ork b u t ad ded th o se on u n
employment an d 'u su a l re s id e n c e '.
T he tw e n ty -y e a r in te rc e n s a l p e rio d re s u ltin g from the
absence of a 1941 c e n su s was a time of major dem ographic and
social chan g e a n d , fo r th is re a s o n , much additional in fo r
mation was so u g h t in th e 1951 c e n s u s , making it th e most
detailed th u s f a r . In ad d itio n to th e q u e stio n s p re v io u sly
ask ed on se x , a g e , m arital s ta tu s , relatio n sh ip to head of
hou seh o ld , b irth p la c e , in d u s tr y , occupation a n d employment
s ta tu s , th o se on f e r tility , ed u catio n an d place of work were
re in tro d u c e d ; q u e stio n s on household am enities - th e p r e
sence , absence o r sh a rin g of a p ip e d w ater s u p p ly , b a th o r
show er, k itch en sin k , cooking stove and WC - w ere b ro u g h t
in fo r th e f ir s t time. The 1961 c e n su s re p e a te d v irtu a lly all
th e q u e stio n s ask ed in 1951 an d ad d ed new ones on household
te n u re (o w n er-o ccu p ied , re n te d from th e local a u th o rity ,
p riv a te ly r e n te d , e tc ) , on 'u su a l re s id e n ts a b se n t on ce n su s
n ig h t' (p e rm ittin g th e calculation of de ju re as well a s de
facto p o p u latio n s) and on 'a d d r e s s one y e a r ago' (p e rm ittin g
detailed an aly sis o f in te rn a l m igration m ovem ents).
Following a p erio d of heav y im m igration, th e 1971 c en su s
paid p a rtic u la r a tte n tio n to th a t a s p e c t. A lthough th e q u estion
on natio n ality was d ro p p e d , each in d iv id u al was re q u ire d to
sta te h is /h e r p a re n ts ' c o u n try of b ir th as well as h is /h e r own
and h is /h e r d ate of e n tr y in to th e UK if b o rn a b ro a d , q u e s
tions su b se q u e n tly a tta c k e d fo r th e ir alleged racial u n d e r
to n e s. Usual a d d re s s fiv e , a s well as o n e, y e a r ago was also
dem anded and th e 1971 c e n su s was th e f irs t to a sk fo r th e
in d iv id u a l's mode of tra v e l to work ( c a r , b u s , tra in e tc ) and
w h eth er o r not each household had th e u se of a c a r o r c a rs .
In 1981, th e ra n g e of q u e stio n s was co n siderably re d u c e d ,
p a rtic u la rly as re g a rd s th e c o n ten tio u s m atter of im m igration.
38
Both 'd a te of e n try in to th e UK' an d 'p a r e n ts ' b irth p la c e '

were d ro p p e d . T he in te rn a l m igration q u e stio n was again
confined to 'u su a l a d d re s s one y e a r a g o ', all fe rtility q u e s
tions were dro p p ed an d th e household am enities re c o rd e d w ere
red u ced to b a th o r show er and WC. On th e o th e r h a n d ,
sev eral of th e classificatio n s u sed w ere e x p a n d e d - th o se on
marital s ta tu s and mode of tra v e l to w ork, fo r exam ple. In
term s of c e n su s o u tp u t - th e num ber of v a ria b le s re c o rd e d
and th e d etail of th e c ro s s -ta b u la tio n s p ro d u ce d - th e 1981
cen su s h a s p ro d u c e d more inform ation th a n any o f its p r e
d ec e sso rs.
Collecting and P ro cessin g th e Data
The legal b a s is . In B rita in , as in most c o u n trie s , th e c en su s

is com pulsory and is b ack ed b y th e force o f law. From 1801
to 1911, each c e n su s re q u ire d a new Act of P arliam ent, b u t
the 1921 an d all s u b se q u e n t c e n su se s have been held u n d e r
the p ro v isio n s of th e C en su s A ct, 1920, th e most im portant of
which are as follows-
(i) T he Act a u th o rise s th e ta k in g of a c e n su s of p o p u

lation u n d e r th e d irectio n of th e a p p ro p ria te M inister
(in 1981 th e S e c re ta ry of S ta te fo r Social S e rv ic e s) at
in te rv a ls of not le ss th a n five y e a r s . T h u s no new Act
of Parliam ent is re q u ire d to co n d u ct a ce n su s once five
y e a rs have e la p se d , an d th e o p eratio n is d ire c te d by
an O rd e r in Council.
(ii) T he O rd e r p re s c rib e s th e q u e stio n s to b e ask ed w hich,
u n d e r th e term s of th e A ct, m ust be confined to th e
following to p ics: (a ) nam e, s e x , ag e; (b ) occu p atio n ,
p ro fe ssio n , tra d e o r employm ent; (c ) n atio n a lity , ra c e ,
b irth p la c e , la n g u a g e ; (d ) place of ab o d e, c h a ra c te r of
dw elling; (e ) condition as to m arria g e, relatio n to head
of fam ily, is s u e b o rn in m arriag e; (f) 'a n y o th e r
m atter w ith re s p e c t to which it is d e sira b le to obtain
s ta tistic a l inform ation w ith a view to a sc e rta in in g th e
social o r civil condition of th e p o p u la tio n '. T his la st
p ro v isio n m ight a p p e a r to give th e c e n su s a u th o ritie s
th e pow er to a sk any q u e stio n th e y w ish , b u t in p ra c
tice all p ro p o sals co n c e rn in g th e o rg an isa tio n o f th e
c e n s u s , th e q u e stio n s to be ask e d an d th e p u blication
of th e r e s u lts a re su b ject to th e s c ru tin y of P a rlia
m ent. The d ra ft C ensus O rd e r is d e b a te d in - an d is
not uncommonly am ended b y - b o th H ouses of P arlia
m ent, an d not u n til th e final v e rsio n is a p p ro v e d can
th e M inister is s u e th e a p p ro p ria te C en su s R eg u latio n s.
P a rtic u la r a tte n tio n is paid to th e co n fid en tiality o f th e

inform ation collected an d no d a ta may be re lea se d to any
39
B R I T I S H AND U N IT E D S T A T E S C E N SU S E S O F P O P U L A T IO N
ce n su s u s e r - which ap p lies to o th e r governm ent d ep artm e n ts

as well as to local governm ent o fficials an d p riv a te o rg a n
isa tio n s an d in d iv id u a ls - in su ch a way th a t it would reveal
the c h a ra c te ris tic s of an id en tifiab le p e rso n o r household. The
complex 'c o n fid en tiality r e s tr a in ts ' d e sig n ed to meet th is
req u irem en t have been d e sc rib e d in detail elsew here
(D ew dney, 1981). The most im p o rtan t a re th a t (i) all p o p u
lation d a ta fo r a re a s w ith few er th a n 25 in h a b ita n ts a re 's u p
p re s s e d ' ( i .e . not p u b lis h e d ), w ith th e excep tio n o f to tal
population n um bers of males and fem ales; (ii) all household
d a ta fo r a re a s co n tain in g few er th a n e ig h t households a re
s u p p r e s s e d , e x cep t fo r th e nu m b er of ho u seh o ld s. T hese
ru le s affect le ss th a n one p e r cen t of ED 's b u t much la rg e r
num bers of sm aller a re a s such as p o stco d e u n its o r g rid
s q u a re s . F u rth e rm o re , th e a ctu al fig u re s p ro d u c ed are
'a d ju s te d ' by th e "th e addition o f a q u asi-ran d o m p a tte rn o f
+1, -1 ,0 to th e in d iv id u al c e lls".
Collecting th e D ata. C ollecting, p ro c e ssin g and p u b lish in g th e

d a ta a re th e re sp o n sib ilitie s of th e c e n su s offices - in
Scotland th e G eneral R e g iste r Office (G R O (S )), in N o rth ern
Irelan d th e C ensus Office of th e D epartm ent of F inance, and
in England and Wales th e Office of Population C en su se s and
S u rv e y s (O PC S). T he last-n am ed also h as a g en eral re sp o n si
b ility fo r e n s u rin g collaboration among th e th re e p a r ts o f th e
UK (w hich, n e v e rth e le ss co n tin u e to collect and p u b lish th e ir
d ata in slig h tly d iffe re n t w ays) an d w ith th e Isle of Man and
C hannel Islan d s w hich, th o u g h tech n ically o u tsid e th e UK,
hold c e n su se s a t th e same time.
A la rg e , fo r th e most p a r t tem p o rary la b o u r force is
re q u ire d to c a r r y out th e c e n s u s . In 1981 th is involved about
100 C ensus S u p e rv is o rs , o v e r 2000 C en su s O fficers (w ith 6500
A ssista n t C ensus O fficers) an d about 130,000 E n u m erato rs,
to g e th e r w ith a la rg e tem p o rary clerical s ta ff in th e c en su s
offices. A lthough th e d etails of o rg a n isa tio n w ere somewhat
d iffe re n t in E ngland an d Wales, Scotland a n d N o rth e rn Irela n d
re s p e c tiv e ly , th e post and d u tie s of th e E num erator were
common to all p a r ts of th e U nited Kingdom an d it was th e
E num erator who was resp o n sib le for th e g re a t b u lk of th e
fieldw ork, c a rrie d out o v e r a p e rio d of fo u r o r five w eeks.
As a lre a d y in d ic a te d , th e E num eration D istrict h a s long
been th e b asic a re a l b u ild in g block in th e B ritish C e n su s. In
1981, G reat B ritain was d iv id ed in to 130,047 EDs; th u s , on
av e ra g e , an ED co v ered an a rea of ab o ut 1.8 sq km and
contained a population of some 400, d is trib u te d among 150
househ o ld s. In p ra c tic e , th e size of a ED an d th e num ber of
people and h o useholds which it co n tain ed v a rie d g re a tly
acco rd in g to local conditions of pop u latio n d istrib u tio n and
d e n sity , with a predom inance of larg e EDs with small p o p u
lations in ru ra l a re a s an d small EDs w ith a b o v e-av erag e p o p u -
40
lations in tow ns. EDs a re form ed, a n d th e ir b o u n d a rie s fix e d ,

on th e b a sis of two c rite ria : (i) th e y m ust fit w ithin th e
b o u n d aries of W ards, C ivil P a rish e s an d LAAs (in Scotland
th ey a re b ased on p o stcode u n its a n d sometimes re q u ire s u b
division to p ro d u ce Ward fig u r e s ) ; (ii) th e y m ust r e p re s e n t
roughly equ al w ork -lo ad s fo r th e E n u m e ra to rs, who are paid a
lump sum fo r th e ir e ff o r ts . T h u s an ED may com prise a ru r a l
area of se v e ra l sq km w ith a s c a tte re d p o p ulation o r , in
tow ns, a collections of s tr e e ts , a sin g le s tr e e t, p a rt o f a
s tre e t o r ev en a sin g le block of fla ts .
The E num erator is re sp o n sib le fo r th e following ta s k s :
(ii) th e id en tificatio n and lis tin g , p rio r to th e c e n s u s , o f
all h o useholds in th e ED;
(ii) th e d eliv ery to all id en tified h o u se h o ld s, two o r
th re e w eeks b e fo re th e c e n s u s , of a p u b licity leaflet
explain in g its n a tu re an d p u rp o s e ;
(iii) th e d e liv e ry to each h o u seh o ld , w ithin a p e rio d of
te n d a y s b efo re th e c e n s u s , o f th e c e n su s sc h ed u le;
(iv ) collecting th e sch ed u les an d ch eck in g them for
e r r o r s an d in c o n siste n c ie s; w ith r e tu r n v is its to
e r r a n t h o useholds w here n e c e s sa ry ;
(v ) th e p rovision of a prelim inary count o f th e p o p u
lation of th e ED fo r u se in th e p re p a ra tio n o f th e
p u b lish ed Prelim inary R e p o rt.
C learly , th e a c cu racy of th e c e n s u s d e p e n d s on th e care

and co n scien tio u sn ess w ith which th e E num erator c a rrie s out
th ese ta s k s and th e co n sisten cy w ith which h e /s h e a d h e re s to
the in s tru c tio n s an d d efin itio n s laid down by th e ce n su s
office. (OPCS 1981). Once collected an d c h e c k e d , th e com
pleted sch ed u les a re p a sse d up th ro u g h th e chain of command
to reach th e c e n su s offices re sp o n sib le fo r th e p ro d u ctio n of
th e r e s u lts .
P ro cessin g th e d a ta . Betw een th e re c e ip t of th e c e n su s in p u t

- th e com pleted sch ed u les - an d th e em ergence o f th e ce n su s
ou tp u t - th e p u b lish e d re s u lts - th e re o c c u rs a v a s t p ro c e s s
ing o p eratio n . In 1981, th e re s id e n t population of G reat
B ritain totalled 53.6 million, of whom 98.5 p e r cen t liv ed in
19.5 million p riv a te h o u seh o ld s, each o f w hich p ro d u c ed a
household sched u le (d iffe re n t sc h e d u le s w ere u sed fo r th e 0.8
million liv in g in 'communal e sta b lis h m e n ts '). T he sc h e d u les fo r
England and Wales an d fo r Scotland (w hich d iffe r in detail)
are rep ro d u c e d by R hind (1983) a n d th e q u e stio n s u se d in
1971 an d 1981 have b een d isc u sse d in detail b y Dewdney
(1981, 1985) and o th e r s . T h is m aterial is not re p e a te d h e re :
suffice it to say th a t th e modern B ritish c e n su s collects an
enorm ous q u a n tity of raw d a ta .
In 1981, in additio n to h is /h e r name (w hich rem ains
wholly c o n fid e n tia l), e ig h t pieces o f inform ation w ere re q u ire d
41
B R I T I S H AND UNITED S T A T E S C E N S U S E S O F P O P U L A T IO N
from each in d iv id u al: se x , d ate of b ir t h , m arital s ta tu s , r e

lationship in ho u seh o ld , w h ereab o u ts on c e n su s n ig h t, u su al
a d d re s s , u su al a d d re s s one y e a r ago an d c o u n try of b ir th ; all
p e rso n s aged 16 o r o v e r w ere re q u ir e d , in a d d itio n , to s ta te
th e ir 'd e g r e e s , p ro fessio n al and vocational q u alifications' (if
any) and ’w h eth er w o rk in g , r e tir e d , h ousew ife, e tc la st
week1; th o se at work had to p ro v id e th e name and b u s in e s s of
th e ir em ployer, th e ir o ccu p atio n , th e ir employment s ta tu s and
th e ir means of tra n s p o r t to w ork; th o se no lo n g e r w orking
had to p ro v id e th e f ir s t th re e of th e s e item s in relation to
th e ir most re c e n t jo b . In a d d itio n , six pieces of inform ation
w ere re q u ire d from each h ousehold: num b er of room s, te n u re ,
sh a rin g o r lacking b a th a n d /o r WC, num ber of c a rs o r v an s
available, and w h e th e r o r not th e h o u se h o ld 's accommodation
was se lf-c o n ta in e d . T he E num erator had to p ro v id e a location
re fe re n c e , d istin g u ish betw een hou seh o ld s in perm anent and
tem porary (c a ra v a n s , e tc ) s tr u c tu r e s an d to s ta te w h e th e r o r
not th e household s h a re d a b u ild in g w ith o th e r ( s ) (A dditional
inform ation was re q u ire d in S c o tla n d ). T he n et re s u lt was a
data set of approxim ately 1000 million p ieces of inform ation
e n te re d on some 19.5 million sc h e d u le s.
The much sm aller d ata s e ts from th e f irs t eleven
c en su se s (1801-1901 in clu siv e) w ere a g g re g a te d and ta b u late d
manually and from 1911 to 1961 th e d a ta w ere coded and
p u n ch ed onto c a rd s fo r m echanical s o rtin g and a g g re g a tio n .
In 1971 and 1981, ho w ev er, d a ta m anipulation was c a rrie d out
by com puter an d th e new technology p e rm itted th e pro d u ctio n
of more num ero u s, more detailed an d more complex ta b u latio n s
th a n e v e r b e fo re . D ata p ro c e s s in g in th e se two c e n su se s in
volved th e coding of th e item s re c o rd ed on th e c en su s
sch ed u les fo r th e p ro d u c tio n of com puter tap e files from
which th e many c e n su s ta b u la tio n s w ere e v e n tu ally p ro d u c e d .
Not all th e d ata w ere fully coded and s to re d : a co nsiderable
num ber of item s w ere e x tra c te d from a 10% sample o f th e
ce n su s sc h e d u le s. C oding an d sto ra g e involved two s e ts of
o p eratio n s: allocation to areal u n its d ep en d ed on th e locational
re fe re n c e s e n te re d on each sch ed u le b y th e E num erator;
allocation of household an d p o pulation c h a ra c te ris tic s to th e
a p p ro p ria te c a teg o ries re q u ire d coding of th e an sw ers to th e
v ario u s q u e stio n s on th e sc h e d u le .
T he coding of 1000 million item s was clearly a m assive
ta s k . Much of th e c e n su s sch ed u le is now in th e form of
tic k -b o x e s , to which code n u m b ers a re a tta c h e d , an d th is
p a rt of th e o p eratio n is relativ ely sim ple. C ertain item s,
how ever, re q u ire tran sfo rm atio n b efo re coding: d a te s o f b ir th
(co n sid ered to p ro d u ce more a c c u ra te a n sw ers th a n do
re q u e s ts fo r chronological a g e ) , fo r exam ple, h av e to be
tra n sla te d in to age (in y e a rs ) at c e n su s d a te . O th e rs , like
'b u s in e s s of em ployer' an d 'o ccu p atio n ' have to be allocated to
th e categ o ries of th e S ta n d a rd In d u s tria l and S ta n d a rd
O ccupational C lassification re s p e c tiv e ly . D ata involving the
42
location of in d iv id u a ls re q u ire p a rtic u la rly lab o rio u s t r e a t

ment; th e a n sw ers to th e m igration q u e stio n - 'u s u a l a d d re s s
one y e a r ago' - have to be allocated to th e a p p ro p ria te a re a
and c ro s s -re fe re n c e d w ith 'u s u a l a d d re s s on c e n su s n ig h t' to
pro d u ce th e n u m b ers of people who h av e moved betw een p a irs
of a re a s . In c e rta in in s ta n c e s , item s a p p e a rin g in th e c e n su s
o u tp u t a re d e riv e d , d u rin g c o m p u te r-p ro c essin g o f th e
prim ary coded d a ta , from more th a n one item on th e sch e d u le .
A prim e example is th e division o f th e population in to
'socio-econom ic g r o u p s ', w hich is a r r iv e d a t by c ro s s -
re fe re n c in g th e a n sw ers on economic a c tiv ity , in d u s tr y ,
occupation an d employment s ta tu s . Such d ifficu lt item s a re
coded only on a 10% sample b a s is , a m ethod applied in 1981 to
th e q u e stio n s on re la tio n sh ip in h o u seh o ld , o ccu p atio n , in
d u s tr y , w orkplace, means of tr a n s p o r t to work and
educational q u alificatio n s. Given th e am ount of w ork in v o lv ed ,
th e publicatio n of th e final re s u lts by Septem ber 1984 was a
major achievem ent.
The Publication of th e C en su s R e s u lts . As a lrea d y in d ic a te d ,

the p u b lish e d re s u lts of th e B ritish c e n su s a re by no means
confined to simple c o u n ts of th e n u m b ers of p e rso n s o r
households in each of th e c a te g o rie s u se d in coding and
a g g re g a tin g th e raw d a ta , b u t co n sist of s e ts of ta b le s c ro s s -
refe re n cin g two o r more p o p u latio n s o r household a ttr ib u te s .
T aking two exam ples a t random th e re a re fig u re s fo r each
areal u n it show ing th e num ber of econom ically-active m arried
females aged 20-24 w orking full-tim e in th e week befo re th e
ce n su s, an d th e num ber of p e rso n s in p riv a te households in
ow ner-occupied accommodation w ith an econom ically-active o r
re tire d head of household in socio-econom ic g ro u p 3 (se lf-
employed p ro fessio n al w o rk e rs ). T hese 'c e n s u s v a ria b le s'
normally a p p e a r as c o u n ts, from w hich 'd e riv e d v a ria b le s' -
su ch a s p ro p o rtio n s of all people o r households - may be
calculated b y th e c e n su s u s e r .
The p u b lish e d re s u lts of th e 1981 c e n su s a p p e a re d in a
v a rie ty of form s, of which b y fa r th e most com prehensive
were th e tra d itio n a l b o u n d volum es a n d th e Small A rea
S ta tistic s (SA S).
T he P ublish ed v olum es. A se t o f b o u n d volum es h a s b een

p ro d u ced from e v e ry B ritish ce n su s: in 1981 th e y num bered
more th a n 1200 an d co n tain ed some 18,000 p a g e s of ta b le s .
D etails may be o b tain ed from th e c e n su s o ffices' c a ta lo g u es,
from th e an n u al HMSO c atalo g u e, G overnm ent P ublications an d
from th e lis ts p ro d u ced b y D ewdney (1981, 1985) an d o th e rs .
T he volumes to g e th e r p re s e n t th e full ra n g e of c e n su s
d ata ta b u la te d for Local A u th o rity A reas an d o th e r "official"
te rrito ria l u n its . In sum m ary, th e y a re of th r e e main ty p e s :
43
P relim inary R e p o rts , C ounty Volumes an d N ational Volumes.
(a) Prelim inary R ep o rts

The B ritish c e n su s h as a long tra d itio n of p ro d u c in g , w ithin
a s h o rt p e rio d a fte r c e n su s day an d well in ad v ance of th e
main r e s u lts , a selection of p relim in ary d a ta . In 1981, in a
su ccessfu l attem p t to sp eed th e p ro d u c tio n of th e defin itiv e
volum es, th is p relim in ary m aterial was re d u c e d to a minimum.
T h ree Prelim inary R e p o rts w ere p u b lis h e d , one each fo r
England an d Wales, S cotland an d N o rth e rn Ire la n d , b a se d on
Enum erators' co u n ts of th e population p re s e n t on c e n su s
n ig h t. In a d d itio n , th e r e was a special P relim inary R eport on
Towns: u rb a n an d ru r a l a re a s g iv in g p opulation to tals io r
u rb a n a re a s as d efin ed by th e ir pre-1974 b o u n d a rie s. O th e r
early p ro d u c ts w ere th e two s e ts of H istorical T a b le s,
1801-1981, com paring population c o u n ts in 1981 with th o se of
all p re v io u s c e n su se s.
(b ) T he C ounty R ep o rts (R egional R ep o rts in S cotland)

T hese w ere th e la rg e s t single block of 1981 c e n su s m aterial -
148 volumes in all. T h ese con tain a s ta n d a rd set o f ta b le s ,
g en erally a t th e level of Local A u th o rity A re a s, co v e rin g th e
main dem ographic, econom ic, h o u sin g an d household v a ria b le s.
In E ngland an d Wales, each re p o rt com prised two se p a ra te ly
bound p a r ts , P a rt 1 co n tain in g th e 100% an d P a rt 2 th e 10%
v a ria b le s. In S co tlan d , th e r e w ere fo u r volumes fo r each
reg io n : Volumes 1 and 2 re p lic a te d most of th e ta b le s in th e
English and co u n ty r e p o r ts , Volume 3 gave additional v a r i
ables re c o rd e d only in S cotland an d Volume 4 p re s e n te d selec
te d v a ria b le s for lower lev els of a g g re g a tio n su c h a s W ards,
Civil P a rish e s and p o stc o d e s. T he New Towns re p o r ts - two
volumes each for Scotland an d fo r E ngland and Wales - con
tain ed th e s ta n d a rd c o u n ty re p o rt ta b le s fo r th o se u n its . In
N o rth ern Irelan d only one e q u iv alen t volume was p ro d u c e d ,
th e R eport fo r B elfast Local G overnm ent D is tr ic t, th e re s t of
th e d ata a p p e a rin g in th e 'n a tio n a l' volum es.
(c) N ational Volumes

T his se t in clu d ed some volum es co v erin g G reat B ritain - b u t
n e v e r th e U nited Kingdom - a s a w hole, and o th e rs fo r
Scotland, N o rth ern Ire la n d , E ngland an d Wales o r Wales o n ly ,
a situ atio n re fle c tin g th e c o n tin u in g com partm entalisation of
th e B ritish c e n s u s , w hich is c a rrie d o u t b y a se p a ra te office
in each " c o u n try " . T he national volum es fell in to two main
cla s s e s , th o se which re p lic a te d , u su ally at d iffe re n t levels of
ag g re g a tio n , th e ta b le s found in th e c o u n ty and regional
re p o r ts , an d th o se which p re s e n te d additional m aterial. In th e
firs t c a te g o ry w ere th e tw o -p a rt N ational R e p o rt, G reat
44
B rita in , th e S co ttish Sum m ary, th e R ep o rt fo r Wales an d th e

N o rth ern Irelan d Summary R e p o rt.
A second se t of national volum es, o fte n r e f e r r e d to as
the 'c e n su s topic' volum es, p ro v id e d ad d itio n al inform ation on
su b jects not in clu d ed o r only p a rtia lly co v ered in th e c o u n ty /
regional re p o rts an d sum m ary volum es. Each con tain ed a
valuable ap p en d ix in d ic a tin g in w hich o th e r volum es additional
tab u latio n s re la tin g to i t s topic a re to b e fo u n d .
S everal to p ics w ere d ealt w ith in volum es co v e rin g th e
whole of G reat B ritain (N o rth e rn Ire la n d h a s its own s e t of
topic volum es) - S ex , Age an d M arital S ta tu s , G reat B rita in ,
Usual R esidence, GB, P e rso n s of P ensionable A ge, G B, Com
munal E stab lish m en ts, G B, an d Q ualified M anpower, GB.
O th ers covered G reat B rita in b u t th e re was also a s e p a ra te
S cottish volume - C o u n try of B ir th , Economic A ctiv ity , Work
place an d T ra n s p o rt to Work. In th e ca se s of H ousing and
Households and Household and Family C om position, th e r e were
se p a ra te volum ei fo r Scotland a n d fo r E ngland an d Wales.
Migration d ata occupied no few er th a n 24 volum es: National
M igration, G reat B ritain P a rt 1 (100%) an d P a rt 2 (10%),
equiv alen t Regional M igration re p o r ts fo r each of th e nine
sta n d a rd reg io n s of E ngland an d Wales an d fo u r S co ttish
Migration volum es, 1 an d 2 co n tain in g th e 100% an d 3 a n d 4 of
the 10% d a ta . Finally th e r e w ere two special volum es on
language - Welsh L anguage in Wales an d th e S co ttish Gaelic
R e p o rt.
(d ) 'K ey S ta tistic s' volumes

The sh e e r scale of th e p u b lish e d o u tp u t p r e s e n ts problem s for
the u s e r re q u irin g q u ick and easy acc e ss to a b asic piece of
inform ation for a p a rtic u la r a re a . To su p p ly th is n e e d , OPCS
and GRO(S) jointly p ro d u ced th e sum m ary volume Key S ta t
istic s fo r Local A u th o ritie s, G reat B rita in , w hich p r e s e n te d ,
in 19 ta b le s , some 120 v a ria b le s fo r th e 459 local governm ent
d is tr ic ts , most o f them in p e rc e n ta g e form . A f u r th e r six 'k ey
s ta tis tic s ' volum es w ere p ro d u c e d fo r specially id en tifie d
u rb a n a re a s - Key S ta tistic s fo r U rban A re a s, G reat B rita in ,
Key S ta tistic s for Localities (S co tlan d ) an d fo u r regional
volum es, Key S ta tistic s fo r U rban A re a s, N o rth , M idlands,
South E ast an d South West an d Wales.
(e) O th er Publications
An in novation of th e 1981 c e n su s was th e p rin tin g of selected
variab les many of them in p e rc e n ta g e form , in booklet se rie s
- C ounty M onitors, Ward an d Civil P a rish M onitors a n d P arlia
m entary C o n stitu en cy M onitors) A dditional inform ation on
economic a c tiv ity is available from a s e t o f Economic A ctivity
B ooklets, p u b lish ed in m icrofiche.
JnT addition to th e d a ta th em selv es, th e c e n su s offices
have p ro d u ced a much g re a te r ra n g e o f e x p la n a to ry docum en
45
B R I T I S H AND U N IT E D S T A T E S C E N S U SE S O F P O P U L A T IO N
tatio n th a n on any p re v io u s o ccasion. Too e x te n siv e to be

listed h e re , th is m aterial in c lu d e s C en su s Monitor s e rie s and
some 200 U ser G uides, d e ta ils of which can be o b ta in ed from
OPCS.
The Small A rea S ta tistic s (S A S ). SAS have now rep la ced the
tab les in th e p u b lish e d volum es as th e main re so u rc e fo r
re s e a rc h on th e B ritish p o p u latio n . T h e ir developm ent b eg an
in 1961 w hen, fo r th e f ir s t tim e, d a ta w ere made available fo r
EDs in selected a re a s , an d co n tin u ed in 1966, when d a ta w ere
pro v id ed fo r all EDs. The su p p ly of SAS was sy stem atised in
1971 b y th e ir p ro v isio n in a s ta n d a rd form at of 1571 v aria b les
a rra n g e d in 28 ta b le s. In 1981 th e y co n sisted of some 4300
v ariab les (5000 in S cotland) a rra n g e d in 52 ta b le s , o rg a n ise d
into 10 p a g e s. T he la y o u ts for 1971 and 1981 may be ob tain ed
from OPCS an d have been re p ro d u c e d b y Rhind (1983) and
Dewdney (1981, 1985).
SAS a re available a s p rin te d copies (th e 'p a g e s' re fe rre d
to a b o v e ), as m icrofiche, on microfilm o r on m agnetic ta p e for
com puter m anipulation, which is now th e form most commonly
u se d . Each v ariab le h a s its u n iq u e cell n u m b er. Data can be
e x tra c te d an d m anipulated by re fe re n c e to th e se cell n u m b ers,
which can be u se d to c o n stru c t 'd e riv e d v a ria b le s '. As an
exam ple, cell 50 is 'to ta l r e s id e n ts ' an d cell 112 is 'm arried
female re s id e n ts aged 30-34'. T h u s th e la tte r can be
e x p re s s e d as a p e rc e n ta g e of th e form er by th e specification
x 100. SAS a re available fo r E num eration D is tric ts , W ards,
Civil P a ris h e s , Postcode s e c to rs (S cotland o n ly ). Local
A uthority A reas an d P arliam en tary C o n stitu e n c es. Space does
not perm it a d esc rip tio n of th e c o n te n ts of th e SAS ta b le s:
suffice it to say th a t th e y would a p p e a r to contain v irtu a lly
e v e ry m eaningful classificatio n and c ro ssta b u la tio n which it is
possib le to p ro d u ce from th e raw d ata re c o rd e d on th e ce n su s
sch ed u les.
With th e a p p earan ce of SAS in a form su ita b le fo r man
ipulation b y co m p u ter, much a tte n tio n h a s been d ev o ted to
th e p re p a ra tio n of s ta tis tic a l p a c k a g e s fo r u se w ith th e se
d a ta . The most sig n ifican t of th e s e is SASPAC, p ro d u c ed
specifically fo r th e 1981 SAS b y th e U n iv ersities of Durham
and E d in b u rg h u n d e r c o n tra c t to th e Local A u th o ritie s
Management S erv ices an d C om puter Committee (LAMSAC).
SASPAC can be ru n on a v a rie ty o f d iffe re n t co m p u ters,
p ro d u c e s s tra ig h tfo rw a rd an a ly se s of th e d a ta an d p r e p a re s
d ata fo r in p u t to more complex s ta tis tic a l and m apping p a c k
a g e s. Among th e l a tte r , one of th e most widely u se d is
GIMMS, p ro d u ced b y Gimms L td . of E d in b u rg h . F u rth e r
developm ent along th e se lin es seems likely b e fo re th e n e x t
B ritish c e n s u s , sch ed u led fo r A pril 1991.
46
B R I T I S H AND U N IT E D S T A T E S C E N S U S E S O F P O P U L A T I O N
THE AMERICAN CENSUS
O rigin a n d D evelopm ent

T he most fu n d am en tal a sp e c t o f th e A m erican C e n su s is th a t
its o rig in s a re b o u n d u p w ith th e fo rm ation of th e n atio n
s ta te . I t is e n s h rin e d in th e C o n s titu tio n . T h e d e le g a te s to
th e C o n stitu tio n a l C o n v en tio n o f 1787 d e c id e d th a t b o th s ta te
ap p o rtio n m e n ts fo r th e H ouse of R e p re s e n ta tiv e s a n d d ire c t
tax a tio n sh o u ld b e b a s e d u p o n p o p u la tio n d is tr ib u tio n . By
com bining th e tw o, th e le g is la to rs so u g h t to a c h ie v e a b alan c e
betw een p r e s s u r e s fo r o v e r - a n d u n d e r - e n u m e ra tio n . A rticle
I, Section 2 of th e C o n stitu tio n d e c re e s th a t a C e n su s sh o u ld
be h eld a t le a s t o n ce e v e ry 10 y e a r s com m encing w ith in th r e e
y e a r s of th e f i r s t m eeting of C o n g re s s . E ven now , th e
p rim a ry d r iv in g -fo rc e b e h in d th e C e n su s rem ain s a p p o rtio n
m en t, e v id e n c e d b y th e C o u rt a c tio n s ta k e n b y n o r th e a s te r n
c itie s a g a in s t th e B u re a u of C e n s u s a f te r 1980 on th e b a s is of
alleg ed u n d e r-e n u m e ra tio n ; o th e r u s e s o f C e n su s d a ta h a v e ,
of c o u rs e , b u rg e o n e d sin c e 1790.
T h e f ir s t n atio n al C e n s u s a c tu a lly p o s t- d a te d some 38
e a rlie r C e n su se s c a r r ie d o u t in th e C olonies, th e e a rlie s t of
w hich was h eld in V irg in ia in 1624, a n d most o f w hich w ere
c a rrie d o u t at th e re q u e s t o f th e B ritis h B o a rd o f T r a d e .
T h o u g h M adison a n d o th e r s in th e f ir s t C o n g re ss a rg u e d fo r
a w ider in fo rm a tio n -c o lle ctin g ro le , th e 1790 C e n su s re c o rd e d
only th e name o f th e h e a d of fam ily, a n d n u m b e rs th e r e in .
T h ese w ere s u b - d iv id e d in to fre e w hite males (ab o v e a n d
below 16 y e a r s o f a g e ) , fre e w hite fem ales, all o th e r fre e
p e r s o n s , a n d s la v e s . No co u n t w as made of In d ia n s in th e
h in te r la n d s , sin ce th e y d id n o t c o n tr ib u te to re v e n u e a n d ,
fo r a p p o rtio n m en t p u r p o s e s , fiv e sla v e s w ere to b e c o u n te d a s
th e e q u iv a le n t of th r e e p e rs o n s ! T h e a c tu a l job of c a r r y in g
out th is C e n su s w as mainly in th e h a n d s o f th e F e d e ra l
M arshals in e ach o f th e th e n 16 S ta te s , who h ire d e n u m e ra t
o r s . B e g in n in g on A u g u st 2 1790, th e C e n su s was com pleted
in n in e m o n th s, th e la s t r e s u lts b e in g tu r n e d in b y M arch
1792. To c a r r y o u t th e C e n s u s , m uch local e n te r p r is e was
re q u ire d - many e n u m e ra to rs h a d to p ro v id e th e ir own p a p e r .
It is n o t s u r p r is in g th e r e f o r e th a t th e 3 .9 million in d iv id u a ls
re c o rd e d w as g e n e ra lly a c c e p te d to be a sig n ific a n t
u n d e rc o u n t o f th e tr u e p o p u la tio n .
T h e C e n su se s h eld im m ediately th e r e a f te r in tro d u c e d a
n u m b er of im p o rta n t in n o v a tio n s . T h e 1820 C e n s u s , fo r i n
s ta n c e , c o n ta in e d q u e s tio n s on w h e th e r em ploym ent w as in
a g r ic u ltu r e , com merce o r m a n u fa c tu rin g (th o u g h th e r e s u lts
w ere fo u n d to b e v e r y i n a c c u r a te ) . P rin te d s c h e d u le s
a p p e a re d in 1830 a n d a c e n tra lis e d office fo r r u n n in g th e
C en su s was c re a te d f o r th a t p u rp o s e in 1840 - th o u g h it was
to b e d isb a n d e d o n ce th e r e p o r ts w ere is s u e d . By th a t tim e,
th e b r e a d th of in fo rm atio n co llected had in c re a s e d
47
B R I T I S H AND U N IT E D S T A T E S C E N S U S E S O F PO P U L A T IO N
dram atically, th e C e n su s Act of 1840 in s tr u c tin g th e office to

collect "all su ch inform ation in relatio n to m ines, a g r ic u ltu re ,
commerce, m an u factu res an d schools as will e x h ib it a full view
of th e p u r s u its , in d u s tr y , ed u catio n an d re so u rc e s of th e
c o u n try " . From 1850 to 1870, th e M arshals w ere in s tru c te d
not only to u se th e in d iv id u al r a th e r th a n th e household a s
th e u n it of enum eration b u t also to p ro d u c e re p o r ts fo r civil
divisions which th e y would c re a te an d w ere to b e known as
co u n ties.
By 1870, th e ra p id g row th in inform ation collected had
reach ed a sto n ish in g p ro p o rtio n s . T h is h ad se v e ra l e ffe c ts ,
notably th a t th e M arshals w ere swamped w ith inform ation,
were unable to v alid ate it p ro p e rly an d p ro d u c e d th e re p o rts
only when th e d a ta w ere o b so lete. T he C e n su s Act of 1880
d id , in fa c t, in s titu te a tem p o rary C en su s office w ithin the
D epartm ent of th e In te rio r an d made p ro v isio n fo r specially
app o in ted en u m e ra to rs an d s u p e rv is o rs in place of th e
M arshals. T he Act was also th e f ir s t to p ro h ib it e n u m e ra to rs
from disclo sin g any inform ation collected in th e C e n su s. An
innovation of g re a t moment in th e 1890 C ensus was th e in tro
duction of H ollerith's p u n c h e d c a rd ta b u la tin g m achines, b u t
p e rh a p s ju s t as sig n ifican t was th e estab lish m en t o f a p e r
manent C en su s office in 1902. T h re e y e a rs la te r th is moved to
th e D epartm ent of Commerce an d a C en sus g e o g ra p h e r was
ap p o in ted . As well as b ein g th e f ir s t ta k en by th is new
o rg a n isa tio n , th e 1910 C en su s also in c lu d e d a small experim ent
w hich, w hilst soon ab a n d o n e d , h ad immense re p e rc u ssio n s for
contem porary American C en su ses - th e u se of th e public mail
serv ice to d e liv er q u e s tio n n a ire s .
The 1940 C e n su s, ho w ev er, p ro v id e d th e p ro to ty p e for
to d a y 's C en su ses: it in clu d ed th e f ir s t C en su s of h o u sin g and
th e f ir s t s u b sta n tia l re c o rd in g of em ploym ent, unem ploym ent
and m igration. P e rh a p s most im p o rta n t, h o w ev er, it in tr o
duced th e concept of sam pling to re d u c e th e am ount o f w ork
in su b se q u e n t d a ta p ro c e s s in g . By 1960, only a few o f th e
population item s were so u g h t from all of th e re sp o n d e n ts an d
much of th e d istrib u tio n an d collection of C ensus form s was
done b y mail. T h a t y e a r was also th e f irs t in w hich all
C ensus ta b u la tio n s w ere made b y co m p u ter, th e C ensus
B ureau h a v in g in sta lle d a UNI VAC 1 - a rg u a b ly th e firs t
commercial com puter - in th e late 1940s. O th e r im portant
tech n ical developm ents p io n eered o r a d v an ced by th e B ureau
inclu d e FOSDIC o r Film O ptical S e n sin g Device fo r In p u t to
C om puters. Special q u e stio n n a ire form s w ere d e sig n e d , filled
in b y th e re s p o n d e n t, microfilmed an d th e n scan n ed b y com
p u te r to obv iate k e y -p u n c h in g .
As in B rita in (one y e a r l a t e r ) , th e 1970 C en su s saw a
su b sta n tia l in c re a se in th e nu m b er of s ta tis tic s ta b u la te d and
p a rtic u la rly in those fo r small g eo g rap h ic a re a s : d etails w ere
released fo r 1.7 million city blo ck s an d 35,000 C en su s tr a c ts .
Only a few b a sic population an d h o u sin g q u e stio n s w ere a sk e d
48
on a 100% sample b a s is , most b e in g co llected on a 15% o r 5%

b a sis. T hat C en su s b u ilt heavily upon th e 1960 e x p erien c e of
use of th e p ublic mail. S e p a ra te FO SD IC -readable q u e stio n
n a ire s w ere u se d fo r r u r a l an d fo r u rb a n a re a s an d 60% of
th e to tal population in larg e m etropolitan a re a s receiv ed
q u e stio n n a ire s b y mail a n d r e tu r n e d them a f te r com pletion by
the same mechanism. E num erato rs c o n ta cte d only n o n
re sp o n d in g h o useholds o r th o se r e tu r n in g incom plete form s.
Elsew here in th e c o u n try , form s w ere se n t b y mail and
collected b y e n u m e ra to rs.
THE 1980 CENSUS
The C ensus C ontext

The 1980 C en sus cost n early $1 b illio n , com pared with $222
million fo r th a t in 1970. T h is enorm ous e n te r p ris e was planned
from 1973 onw ard s in th e c o n te x t of s e v e ra l im portant fa c to rs ,
including:
- a w idening ra n g e of u s e r n e e d s, esp ecially from commer

cial ag encies fo r small a re a d ata
- ch an g es in life sty le w hich com plicate ta k in g th e C e n su s,
e .g . th e su b s ta n tia l num b er o f illegal im m igrants, new
form s of household h av e been c r e a te d , a n d liv in g in
remote sp o ts h a d , if a n y th in g , become more common
- th e lab o u r m arket c h an g es (w o rk in g ho u sew iv es, e tc .)
had re su lte d in few er sk illed an d c o n scien tio u s in d iv id
uals b ein g available as e n u m e ra to rs. It had also e n s u re d
th a t fa r more calls would need to be made in th e e v e n
in g s to collect forms
- th e racial an d e th n ic v a ria tio n s in th e US e n s u re d th a t
en u m erato rs in hom ogeneous a re a s h ad to be from th e
same b a c k g ro u n d as th o se e n u m e ra te d , th e re b y compli
catin g still f u r th e r th e choice o f e n u m e ra to rs.
The Mail Out-Mail Back C ensus

Some 90% of th e US pop u latio n (b u t only th o se in 50% o f th e
land a re a ) w ere en u m erated in 1980 u sin g a mail out-m ail b ack
C ensus p ro c e d u re . T he claimed a d v a n ta g e s o f th is p ro c e d u re
a re su b s ta n tia l: few er e n u m e ra to rs a re re q u ire d , hence sav in g
c o s ts , th e household h a s time to re fle c t on a n sw e rs and
pro v id e them more a c c u ra tely and it o ffe rs g r e a te r p riv a c y to
th e re s p o n d e n t. In re a lity , h o w ev er, o th e r fa c to rs also led to
its adop tio n . T hese in clu d ed th e d iffic u ltie s o f ob tain in g
suitab le e n u m e ra to rs, th e rem o ten ess o f some se ttle m e n ts, a n d
the relativ ely p oor q u a lity of th e US map b a s e , at le a st when
com pared to th a t in B rita in . T he la st fa c to r is o fte n u n
ap p re c ia ted b y UK r e s id e n ts : th e la rg e s t scale o f com plete,
co n siste n t map cov erag e in m ainland B rita in is 1/1 0 ,0 0 0 , with
49
B R I T I S H AND U N IT E D S T A T E S C E N S U S E S OF P O P U L A T IO N
70% of th e a rea co v ered b y 1/1250 an d 1/2500 scale maps

which a re con tin u o u sly re v is e d . H ence, p u rc h a s e of th e SUSI
(S upply of U npublished S u rv e y Inform ation) in B ritain should
p ro d u ce maps which a re no more th a n a few m onths o u t-o f -
d a te . By c o n tr a s t, th e la rg e s t scale co n tinuous co v erag e in
the USA is a t 1/62,500 scale and many of th e se a re up to 40
y e a rs o u t-o f-d a te . In th e se c irc u m sta n c es, mailing lis ts o ften
co n stitu te th e most u p -to -d a te detailed p o p ulation g eo g ra p h y .
D espite th is , th e b e s t available maps of th e USA w ere com
piled fo r each one of th e 300,000 Enum eration D istric ts fo r
u se in th e field (below ).
Mailing lis ts fo r 1980 w ere g en erally o b tain ed from
commercial so u rc e s , th o u g h se v e ra l fo r th e same a re a w ere
sometimes m erged an d th e r e s u lts ch eck ed by th e p o stal
serv ice in mid-1979. P rio r to th e C e n su s, an en u m erato r
system atically check ed all th e a d d re s s e s in an a re a , ad ding
m issing ones to th e mailing lis t. T he n u m bers o f households
in d iffe re n t a re a s from th e c ity block u p w ard s w ere th u s
valid ated by com parison w ith local w a te r, gas and e le c tric ity
and ad m in istrativ e re c o rd s : o v e r 32,000 of th e 39,500 local
u n its of governm ent p a rtic ip a te d in th is ch eck in g p ro c e ss of
th e a d d re s s lis ts . O th er ch eck s an d u p -d a te s co n tin u ed almost
up to C en su s day on A pril 1 st.
It is w orth s tre s s in g th a t, to make th e mailing operation
a s u c c e ss, enorm ous p u b lic ity e ffo rts w ere made: C ensus
m essages w ere placed in em ployees' pay p a c k e ts , on g ro cery
b a g s, in th e media an d w ere ev en given out in schools. A
resp o n se ra te of 74% was ach iev ed in th e mail out-m ail back
operation (GAO 1982).
The G eography of th e US C ensus
The g eo g rap h y of C e n s u s -ta k in g . A ttach in g a g eo graphical

refe re n ce to a C ensus re c o rd in th e 1980 C en su s re q u ire d
th re e p ro d u c ts p ro d u c e d b y th e G eography Di-vision (Marx
1984). T hese w ere:
(i) M aps, show ing named s tr e e ts and b o u n d a rie s of

enum eration d is tr ic ts , C en su s t r a c ts , to w n sh ip s,
c o u n tie s, cities an d major p h y sic a l fe a tu re s (su c h as
railw ays) to aid position fix in g . T he maps w ere u se d
in u rb a n a re a s prim arily b y en u m e ra to rs when
check in g on n o n -re sp o n d e n ts .
(ii) G eographic B ase Files (G B F )/D ual In d ep e n d en t Map
Encoding (DIME) files. T h ese encode th e topological
re la tio n sh ip s betw een s tr e e ts an d betw een th e postal
a d d re s s and th e p o stal a d d re s s and th e block (see
F ig u re 2 .1 ) . Given a GBF/DIME file, autom ated
m atching of C en su s re c o rd s co n tain in g an in d iv id u al
p o stal a d d re s s w ith a section of a s tre e t a n d hence
50
Z E B R A C IT Y 88 6 S Adam« Twp oos
3 0 4 ______ | 11 o 1
303 m i -i a 3 i «» 11 l a o i 8 0 2
(IS) •3 *2 1
!— ©
200
ED23 ED28
307 509
408
n 407
n 60 6
A i i l a u a * C o . , Ala .
(0 0 1 ) (0 1 )
Straat From To Laft R ig h t

P la c a Tract
Nam* Nod* Nod* B lo ck B lo ck
MAIN ST. 3 2 8855 15 303 308

101-121 100-122
MAIN ST. 2 1 - 15 303 308
123-199 124-198
Fig. 2.1 Portion of a US C en su s map show ing n o d es,

s tr e e ts , b lo c k s, enum eration d is tr ic ts a n d postal
n um bers ( to p ); and section o f p a r t o f th e eq u iv a l
en t GBF/DIME file (from Marx 1984).
with blo ck s is g en erally p o ssib le . M oreover, th e

s tr u c tu r e of th e DIME file p e rm its autom atic ch eck in g
th a t much of th e s tr e e t n etw o rk is com plete - o r a t
le a st th a t w hat is re c o rd e d is c o n siste n t. T h is is
vital since GBF/DIME files w ere c re a te d in colla
b o ra tiv e p ro je c ts b etw een th e C en su s B u reau an d 300
local ag en cies.
It is w orth n o tin g th a t th is only p ro v id e s implicit
g eographical re fe re n c in g - th e s ta n d a rd GBF/DIME
file co n tain s re la tio n sh ip s r a th e r th a n geom etry o f
s tr e e ts , e tc . H ow ever, fo r th e 1% o f th e lan d a re a
51
B R I T I S H AND U N IT E D S T A T E S C E N S U S E S O F P O P U L A T I O N
w hich in c lu d e s 60% o f th e p o p u la tio n , th e la titu d e

a n d lo n g itu d e o f all th e s t r e e t n o d es h a v e b e en
c o n v e rte d in to c o m p u te r form a n d p la n s a re in h a n d
to e x te n d th is fo r th e 1990 C e n s u s (s e e b e lo w ).
(iii) th e M aster R e fe re n c e F ile. F o r ea ch S ta te , th is
c o n ta in s th e re la tio n sh ip b e tw e e n th e g e o g ra p h ic
u n its ( s t r e e t s e c tio n s , e t c . ) in th e GBF/DIME file
w ith th e a re a l u n its fo r w hich th e C e n su s r e s u lts a re
to be ta b u la te d (h e n c e i t is th e US e q u iv a le n t of th e
OPCS A rea M aster File w hich lin k s EDs to a v a r ie ty
o f H ealth S e rv ic e a r e a s , e t c . ) . F or 1980, th is was
c r e a te d b y a m assive c le ric a l e f f o r t to en co d e th e 2 .5
million b lock n u m b e rs on th e C e n su s m aps to g e th e r
w ith th e en u m e ra tio n d is tr ic t n u m b e rs , C e n su s tr a c t
n u m b e rs , p la c e nam es a n d c o d e s , e tc .
G iven th e s e th r e e e le m e n ts, th e c a p a b ility fo r autom atic

ta b u la tio n o f r e s u lts fo r an alm ost in fin ite v a r ie ty of g eo
g ra p h ic b a s e s e x is ts .
T h e G eo g rap h y of C e n su s R e p o rtin g . T h e ta b u la tio n u n its fo r

which 19o0 C e n s u s r e s u lts w ere p ro d u c e d w ere:
Table 2.1: Tabulation Units Recognised In the 1980 Census (from Marx 1984)
Political Areas Statistical Areas
United States Regions (4)

States & State Equivalents (57) Divisions (9)
States (50) Standard Consolidated
D.C. (1) Statistical Areas - SCSA (17)
Outlying Areas (6) Standard Metropolitan
Countries, Parishes & Other Statistical Areas - SMSA (323)
County Equivalents (3,231) Urbanised Areas - UA (373)
Minor Civil Divisions - MCD (30,491) Census County Divisions - CCD (5,512)
Incorporated Places (19,176) Unorganised Territories (274)
American Indian Reservations (275) Census Designated Places - CDP (3,733)
Indian Subreservation Areas (228) Census Tracts (43,383)
Alaska Native Villages (209) Block Numbering Areas - BNA (3,404)
Congressional Districts - CD (435) Enumeration Districts - ED (102,235)
Election Precincts (36,361) Block Groups - BG (156,163)
[In 23 participating States] (Tabulated parts - 200,043)
School Districts (15,850) Blocks (2,473,679)
Neighbourhoods (s 27,750) (Tabulated parts - 2,545,416)
ZIP Codes (a 37,000)
Two o f th e s e ta b u la tio n u n its a re w o rth ex am ining in more

d e ta il. T h e b lo ck is o fte n a v e r y sm all ta b u la tio n u n it in d e e d ,
a n d on ly se le c te d s ta tis tic s from th e 100% C e n su s sam ple a re
p u b lish e d fo r i t . B lock d a ta a r e , h o w e v e r, p u b lish e d fo r all
u rb a n is e d a r e a s a n d all in c o rp o ra te d p la c e s of 10,000 o r more
p e o p le . In a d d itio n , o th e r a re a s can c o n tra c t fo r th e B u re a u
52
to p ro d u ce block d a ta - th e to ta lity of th e S ta te s o f New

Y ork, Rhode Isla n d , V irg in ia, G eorgia and M ississippi are
available in th is form . T he C en su s tr a c t is an u n ch a n g in g
a re a , hence facilitatin g com parison th ro u g h tim e. Unlike th e
are a s of th e same name in tro d u c e d in 1981 B ritish C en su s
re s u lts , th is is (in g e n e ra l) initially d e fin ed on th e g ro u n d
by a Local C ensus S ta tistic a l A reas Committee as a homo
geneous a rea of population an d h o u sin g ; o th e r governm ent
and adm inistration is u rg e d to u se th e s e a re a s . T he concept
and naming of th e 't r a c t ' is p rim arily d u e to Laidlaw whose
assem bly of h isto ric a l an d c u r r e n t d a ta fo r small a re a s was
th re a te n e d when New York ch an g ed th e b o u n d a rie s of th e ir
assem bly d is tric ts (an d hence of C en su s re p o rtin g u n its ) in
1905. C en su s t r a c ts e x ist w ithin all th e S ta n d a rd M etropolitan
S tatistical A reas an d some o th e r a re a s: th e ir a v era g e p o p u
lation is 4,000, w ith a ra n g e o f 2,500 to 8,000 people.
The 1980 C en su s Q uestions

The 1980 C en sus form s a re given in Kaplan and Van Valey
(1980). Q uestions co v e rin g 7 population su b je c ts and 12
housin g su b je c ts w ere ask ed of e v e ry ho u sehold. T he p o p u
lation item s w ere nam e, relatio n sh ip to h o u seh o ld , a g e , 'r a c e ',
se x , m arital s ta tu s an d S p an ish o rig in . T he rem aining q u e s
tions dealt with 26 population an d 20 o th e r h o u sin g item s b u t
were collected on a sample b a sis as p re v io u sly d e sc rib e d : in
to ta l, 79% of households got th e sh o rt (100% o n ly ) form s.
A part from th e com plexity of th e race a n d e th n ic classification
(Kaplan and van Valey 1980, p . 28 2 -3 ), p e rh a p s th e most
in te re s tin g item s a re th o se collected on th e sample b a sis.
Those in th e population section include e d u c a tio n , place o f
b ir th , citizen sh ip and y e a r of im m igration, c u r r e n t lan g u ag e,
a n c e stry , resid en ce an d a c tiv ity 5 y e a rs p re v io u sly , v e te ra n
s ta tu s , d isa b ility , num ber of ch ild re n e v e r b o rn , m arital
h is to ry , employment s ta tu s , place of w ork and jo u rn e y to
w ork, th e in d u s tr y , occupation an d c la ss o f w o rk e r, num ber
of weeks w orked in 1979 an d incom e. T he la s t of th e s e h as
ap p eared in each C en su s since 1940 an d was specifically in
cluded b ecau se it is needed fo r F ed eral fu n d allocation
form ulae. T he 100% sample hou sin g item s in clu d ed ac ce ss to
the hou sin g u n it, plum bing (household am enities in th e
B ritish C e n s u s ), num ber of room s, te n u r e , p ro p e rty v alu e fo r
ow ner occupied u n its a n d , o th e rw ise , m onthly r e n t, and
vacancy s ta tu s . T he sam ple-based q u e stio n s in clu d ed b u ild in g
ty p e , num ber of s to rie s and p re se n c e o f an e le v a to r, so u rce
of w ater an d sew age d isp o sa l, y e a r in which th e b u ild in g was
c o n s tru c te d , th e y e a r in which th e p r e s e n t o ccupant moved
in , h e a tin g eq u ip m en t, fu els u s e d , th e cost of u tilitie s and
fuel, kitchen facilities, num ber of bedroom s a n d o f b athroom s,
p re se n c e of telephone an d of a ir cond itio n ing a n d th e ow ner
ship and u se of c a r s , v a n s and lig h t tr u c k s . C learly th is
53
B R I T I S H AND U NITED S T A T E S C E N S U S E S O F P O P U L A T IO N
ran g e of q u e stio n s is somewhat w ider th a n in th e B ritish

C en su s.
C ensus R esu lts

T he single re p o rt from th e fir s t US C en su s am ounted to only
56 p ag es: th e eq u iv alen t num ber of p rin te d pag es from th e
fou r C en su ses from 1950 to 1980 w ere 50,000, 100,000,
200,000 and (ab o u t) 300,000. In a d d itio n , from 1960 o n w a rd s,
in c re a sin g volumes of d a ta have b een made available in
co m p u ter-read ab le form on m agnetic ta p e .
The r e s u lts available d iffe r to some e x te n t, d e p en d in g on
the transm ission medium a d o p te d . Hence th e p a p e r re p o rts
beg an w ith Prelim inary Population an d H ousing Unit C o u n ts,
su p e rse d e d by eq u iv alen t Final C ou n ts a n d , in a d d itio n , basic
and some e x tr a co u n ts a re p ro v id e d in th e PHC s e r ie s , in
dividual re p o rts b e in g p ro d u c e d for block and C en su s tra c t
level w ithin each SMSA an d a n o th e r fo r governm ental u n its in
each S ta te . In a d d itio n , a whole se rie s of population and
household re p o rts d e sc rib e th e b asic d a ta fo r a v a rie ty of
areal u n its ; w hilst c ro s s -ta b u la tio n s do o c cu r in th e se
r e p o r ts , th e y a re much less common th a n in th e ir B ritish
c o u n te rp a rts . The same is tr u e (alth o u g h to a le s s e r e x te n t)
fo r th e su b ject r e p o r ts , m ostly p ro d u c e d a t national level.
C om puter ta p e s contain much more d etail b o th in term s
of c ro ss-ta b u la tio n s an d g eo g rap h ical d etail - hence one tape
(STF1C o r S ta n d a rd Tape File 1 fo r C ounties co n tain s well
o v er one h u n d re d cells o r v a ria b le s fo r each of th e 3,000+
counties in th e USA. C en su s of Population and H ousing (1980)
p ro v id es d etails of th e STF files which are readily o b tain a b le.
It is w orth p o in tin g out t h a t, unlike th e B ritish policy of
c h a rg in g by d ata p e r a re a l u n it, th e US B ureau of C en su s
c h a rg e s only th e cost of copying th e d a ta . Hence a ta p e full
o f d a ta from OPCS (say EDs in a co u n ty ) could cost £2,000 o r
more, w hilst th e maximum c h a rg e fo r th e 'p u b lic dom ain' US
d ata a p p e a rs to be ab o u t $100.
One o th e r p ro d u c t p ro d u ced in th e US is w orth exam
inin g : th e Public Use M icrodata Sample tap e files which
contain a small sample of u n id en tified in d iv id u al and household
re c o rd s , each co n tain in g v irtu a lly all th e d etails o th e r th a n
name an d a d d re s s fo r th o se people o r households selecte d :
only S tates o r g ro u p s o f co u n ties a re id e n tifie d . N o rris (1983)
pointed out th e a d v a n ta g e s of su ch d a ta in p e rm ittin g th e
u s e r b o th to c re a te h is own c ro s s -ta b u la tio n s an d also to
avoid th e ecological fallacy: he u rg e d th a t th e se d a ta should
be made available for B ritain and d isc u ssio n s are now in han d
betw een OPCS and th e Economic an d Social R esearch Council
to see if an eq u iv alen t o f th e s e d ata can b e p ro d u c e d .
54
B R I T I S H AND U N IT E D S T A T E S C E N S U S E S O F P O PU L A T IO N
C onfidentiality
Since 1910, it h as b een th e p ra c tic e th a t a P re sid en tial
proclam ation is given of co n fid en tiality of C e n su s inform ation.
The C a rte r proclam ation of 1979, fo r in s ta n c e , in clu d e d :
" . . . . B y law , in d iv id u al inform ation collected will not

be u sed fo r p u rp o s e s of ta x a tio n , in v e stig a tio n , o r
re g u la tio n , o r in connection w ith m ilitary o r ju ry
se rv ic e , th e com pulsion of school a tte n d a n c e , th e
reg u latio n of im migration o r w ith th e enforcem ent of
any natio n al, S tate o r local law o r O rd in an ce".
Whilst th is is somewhat more detailed th a n a re th e term s of

the 1920 C ensus Act in B rita in , th e in d iv id u al q u e stio n n a ire
resp o n se s a re re ta in e d as co nfidential fo r a s h o rte r perio d (72
y e a rs com pared w ith 100 in B rita in ).
In addition to th e to tal p ro h ib itio n of giv in g o f in d iv id
u a l's re c o rd s to o th e r a g e n c ie s, th e C en su s B ureau is
ch arg ed with e n s u rin g th a t no in d iv id u a l's c h a ra c te ris tic s can
be o btained from th e p u b lish e d r e s u lts . T he B ureau achieves
th is in a d iffe re n t m anner to th e B ritish - few er c ro s s
tab u latio n s a re p ro d u ced an d th o se which a re a re o ften only
pro d u ced fo r a re a s w ith more th a n a given population size
( e .g . th e Summary T ape File 5 is only available fo r S ta te s,
SMSAs and SC SA s). Hence only simple c o u n ts a re given at
the block level (a v e ra g in g about 70 p eo p le).
Where d etailed d ata a re p re s e n te d , d ata su p p re ssio n
te c h n iq u e s a re a p p lie d , b u t th e y d iffe r somewhat from the
B ritish ap p ro ach . S u p p re ssio n in th e STF1 ta p e s can become
q u ite complex: in g e n e ra l, fig u re s a re se t to zero if few er
th an 15 people o r 5 h o useholds e x ist in a tab le o th e r th an
those of b asic c o u n ts. B ut th ese th re s h o ld s can also be
applied to num bers of S panish o rig in o r in d iv id u al racial
group in selected ta b le s and com plem entary su p p re ssio n
(su p p re ssio n on two o r more b a s e s , e . g . 'fiv e ow ners and
five r e n te r s ') is u se d in some d a ta .
A ccuracy
US C en su ses have c h a ra c te ristic a lly u n d e rc o u n te d th e p o p u
lation th o u g h in g e n e ra l th e d iscrep an cy h as b een dim inishing
in size from 3.3% in 1950 to 2.5% in 1970. H ow ever, th is
u n d e rc o u n t v a rie s g re a tly betw een social an d eth n ic g ro u p s
and in d iffe re n t a re a s of th e co u n try - in p a r tic u la r, th e
e r r o r is g re a te r in re g a rd to H ispanics th a n fo r most o th e r
g ro u p s. C learly all th is has major significance for
apportionm ent at S tate level b u t th e n eed fo r ad justm ent to
obviate th e u n d e rc o u n t is p re s e n t ev en down to th e 39,000
su b -S ta te u n its which gain from r e v e n u e -s h a rin g program m es
b ased on population n u m b e rs. R efining th e ac cu racy can of
co u rse be achieved b y v a rio u s su p p le m e n tary , p o s t-c e n s u s
55
B R I T I S H AND U NITED S T A T E S C E N S U S E S O F P O P U L A T IO N
c h e c k s, th o u g h th e se a re o ften e x p e n siv e . T he B u reau sp e n t

$11 million in 1970 to re d u c e th e u n d e rc o u n t by 0.2%. In
1980, an estim ated $342 million was sp e n t in to ta l (GAO 1982)
on re d u c in g th e u n d e rc o u n t.
THE 1990 CENSUS
US p lan n in g fo r a C en su s now b e g in s ab o u t 7 y e a rs p rio r to

a C ensus an d much re a sse ssm e n t of th e 1980 C en su s was
u n d e rta k e n in th e p erio d 1981-83. T he G eneral A ccounting
Office of th e Com ptroller G eneral of th e US, fo r in sta n c e ,
c a rrie d o u t two in v e stig a tio n s (GAO 1982, 1983) on how th e
1990 C ensus could most efficien tly and economically be c a rrie d
out b y m odifying 1980 p ro c e d u re s : th e D epartm ent of
Commerce re sp o n se s to th e many d etailed recom m endations
w ere also p rin te d in th e se r e p o r ts . B ounpane (1983) has
w ritten a 'look ah ead ' from w ithin th e B u reau which d e sc rib e s
the p ossible m odifications b e in g exam ined. One of th e most
significant of th e s e h in g e s on th e in tro d u c tio n of th e TIGER
(Topologically In te g ra te d G eographically E ncoding and
R eferencing) S ystem , a com puter system to combine m aps,
a d d re s s e s and C en su s g eo g rap h ical a re a s into one d a ta b ase.
This h as two o b jectiv es - to re d u c e th e still high lev els of
manual e ffo rt a t th e C en su s p re p a ra tio n ( c .f . th e highly
autom ated C en sus tab u la tio n ) sta g e an d to re d u ce th e e r r o r s
and in co n sisten cies th a t aro se in 1980 from h a v in g se p a ra te
m aps, GBF/DIME files and M aster R eference Files. Broome
(1984) h as given a d esc rip tio n of th e d esig n of th is system .
To make th is function s a tis fa c to rily , a collaborative program m e
with th e US Geological S u rv e y h as b een se t up to c re a te and
con v ert in to com puter form a to tally new set o f 1/100,000
scale maps of th e USA b y 1987.
THE BRITISH AND US CENSUS COMPARED
Whilst th e y have many su p e rfic ia l sim ilarities - th e y a re larg e

and complex o p e ra tio n s, o rie n ta te d to w ard s an a c c u ra te count
o f th e p o p u latio n , held e v e ry te n y e a rs an d whose r e s u lts a re
fundam ental for much p la n n in g an d re so u rc e allocation - th e re
a re many d iffe re n c es betw een th e a p p ro a c h es u sed fo r C ensus
ta k in g in th e two c o u n trie s.
P e rh a p s th e most im portant of th e s e d iffe re n c es is th e
method of d is trib u tin g and collecting th e q u e stio n n a ire s, th e
way in w hich sam pling is c a rrie d o u t, th e ty p e an d ra n g e of
q u e stio n s a sk e d , th e d ata en co d in g , v alid ation and tab u latio n
p ro c e d u re s u s e d , th e n a tu re of th e b asic C ensus g eo g rap h y
rec o rd e d an d th e cost of o b ta in in g th e re s u lts . N a tu ra lly ,
many of th e se a rise from d iffe re n c es in th e size of th e
c o u n trie s, th e te r r a in to be c o v e re d , an d th e le g islativ e an d
56
B R IT IS H AND UNITED ST A T E S CENSUSES O F POPULATIO N
social context in which th e C ensuses are c a rrie d o u t. It may

be th at the internationally exploited an d ra p id developm ents
in new information technology and th e p re s s u re s upon C ensus
agencies to reduce co sts ( e .g . GAO 1982) will lead to more
commonality b u t each C ensus is essentially co ntex t-sp ecific.
REFERENCES
Bounpane, P .A . (1983) 'T he C ensus B ureau Looks to 1990'

American D em ographics, O ctober, 1983, 1-8
Broome, F .R . (1984) 'T ig e r Prelim inary Design and S tru c tu re
Overview ,' Paper P resen ted to Assoc. Amer. G eographers
Annual Meeting in Washington D.C
Census of Population and Housing (1980) Summary Tape File 1
Technical Docum entation, Data U ser S ervices Division,
Bureau of C ensus, Washington D .C ., 2nd Edition 1982
(equivalent publications cover SFT 2 to 5)
Denham, C. (1980) 'T he geography of th e c e n su s, 1971 and
1981', Population T re n d s , 19, 6-12
GAO, (1 9 8 2 F A $4 billion C ensus in 1990? Timely decisions on
altern ativ es to 1980 p ro ced u res can save m illions,
General Accounting Office, Washington D .C ., GGD-82-13
GAO, (1983) The C ensus Bureau needs to plan now for a
more automated 1990 decennial c e n s u s , General Account
ing Office, Washington D .C ., GGD-83-10
Kaplan, C .P . and Van Valey, T .L ., (1980) ( e d s .) , C ensus
80: Continuing th e F actfinder T ra d itio n , Bureau of
C ensus, Washington D .C ., 490 pp
Marx, R.W. (1984) Developing an In te g ra ted C artographic/
Geographic Data~ Base fo r th e US B ureau of C en su s,
International B ureau of C ensus Memorandum
Morgan, C ., and Denham, 'C ensus Small Area S tatistics
(SAS): M easuring Change and Spatial V ariation', Popu
lation T ren d s 28, 12-17
N orris, P. (1983) TvRcrodata From th e B ritish C e n su s', in D.
W. Rhind ( e d s .) , A C ensus U sers H andbook, M ethuen,
London, p p .301-19
OPCS, (1981) Census 1981: D efinitions, G reat B ritain , (CEN
81 DEF), HMSO, London
Rhind, D.W. (1983) ( e d .) , A C ensus U sers' Handbook,
London, Methuen
UN, (1967) P rinciples an d Recommendations fo r th e 1970
Population C ensuses, UN Statistical P a p e rs, Series M,
No. 44
57
C h a p te r T h ree
FERTILITY PATTERNS IN THE MODERN WORLD
J . Coward
Like most population c h a ra c te ris tic s , th e a n a ly sis o f fe rtility

p a tte rn s can be in v e stig a te d at many d iffe re n t scales o f stu d y
and th is c h a p te r th e re fo re exam ines fe rtility p a tte r n s with
exam ples from a v a rie ty of p o in ts along th e scale continuum .
At th e more macro lev el, fe rtility will be a sse sse d fo r th e
co u n trie s and sub co n tin en tal a re a s of th e w o rld , em phasising
the co n sid erab le d eg re e of contem porary v ariatio n an d the
d iv e rsity of fa c to rs th a t influ en ce th e se d iffe re n tia ls. At a
somewhat fin e r level of a n a ly s is , fe rtility v a ria tio n s in the
B ritish Isles will also be exam ined. H ere, se v eral levels of
ag g reg atio n a re c o n sid e re d , fo cu ssin g on th e c o n stitu e n t
co u n tries of th e B ritish Is le s , regional and sub regional v a ri
ations w ithin each of th e se a re a s and also fe rtility d iffe re n c es
at th e d is tric t level in E ngland and Wales. P rio r to th e se
specific exam ples, h ow ever, the c h a p te r d isc u sse s some g e n
eral issu e s co n cern in g th e geog rap h ical stu d y of fe rtility
p a tte r n s , exam ining th e p o ssib ilities an d lim itations o f su ch
stu d ie s, d ata availability an d th e n a tu re of th e o ry .
GENERAL ISSUES
A lthough th e field of population g eo g ra p h y has ex panded

consid erab ly in re c e n t d ecad es, th e a n a ly sis of fe rtility p a t
te r n s b y g e o g ra p h e rs rem ains a relativ ely n eglected a rea of
stu d y . In many re s p e c ts th is is a s u r p r is in g fe a tu re because
th e re a p p e a rs to be co n sid erab le scope a n d p o ssib ility fo r th e
geographical stu d y of fe rtility . F irs tly , fo r exam ple, sp atia l
variatio n s in fe rtility a re g en erally d isc e rn ib le fo r all the
grad atio n s of th e scale continuum . S econdly, many c o u n trie s
now have at le a st th e b asic d a ta so u rc e s n e c e ssa ry to in v e s ti
gate sp atial v ariatio n s in fe rtility . T h ird ly , th e in te r - d is
cip lin ary n a tu re of fe rtility s tu d ie s , in which a wide ran g e of
biological, dem ographic, socio-econom ic, so cio-psychological,
political an d environm ental fa c to rs can be of p o te n tial
ex p lan ato ry im portance, o ffe rs much o p p o rtu n ity to demon
08
F E R T IL IT Y P A T T E R N S IN T H E MODERN WORLD
s tr a te th a t th e geo g rap h ical ap p ro ach is one b a se d on the

science (o r a r t) of s y n th e s is . F o u rth ly , while re al v a ria tio n s
in fe rtility can be an im p o rtan t s tu d y in th em se lv es, th e y can
also be u tilised as in d ic a to rs of w ider is s u e s , su ch as v a ri
ations in social c h a n g e , o r re la te d to more ap plied population
issu e s su c h as v a ria tio n s in o v erall pop u lation c h a n g e , d is tr i
bution an d s tr u c tu r e an d also th e dem and fo r e d u c atio n ,
health an d serv ice p ro v isio n
T his n eg lect of fe rtility s tu d ie s b y g e o g ra p h e rs was
em phasised b y T re w a rth a (1953) o v e r th ir ty y e a rs ag o , b u t
more re c e n t s u rv e y s of th e lite r a tu r e , su c h a s C larke (1977),
Jones (1981, 1984), Schnell and Monmonier (1983), Rees
(1981) an d Woods (1979, 1982) come to much th e same con
clusion. Jones (1984), fo r exam ple, s ta te s th a t th e n eg lect is
"serio u s an d in d e fe n sib le ", b u t has also s u g g e ste d th a t it can
be ex plained b y fe rtility stu d ie s b ein g p e rc eiv e d a s le ss "geo
graphical" (presu m ab ly re fle c tin g a ttr ib u te s of th e physical
environm ent o r such sp atial a ttr ib u te s a s th e d ire c t e ffe c ts o f
distan ce) th a n , fo r exam ple, s tu d ie s of m ortality o r m igration
(Jones 1981). It is c e rta in ly th e case th a t in most circum
sta n c e s th e p h y sical environm ent p lay s little o r no p a r t in
d irectly in flu en cin g fe rtility p a tte r n s , a lth o u g h , at b road
scales of s tu d y , th e environm ent can e ffe c t p a tte r n s o f h ealth
and diet which ca n , in tu r n , in flu en ce fe rtility c h a r a c te r
istic s . On th e o th e r h a n d , th e role of d ista n c e can sometimes
play a cru cial ro le , a s in , for exam ple, d ista n c e decay
relatio n sh ip s o r in th e geog rap h ical diffu sion of c e rta in ideas
and inform ation.
O th er re a so n s, h ow ever, may also explain th e neglect o f
fertility s tu d ie s . T hese could in c lu d e , fo r exam ple, th e lack
of su b sta n tia l v a ria tio n in fe rtility in many developed
co u n tries at th e b ro a d regional scale; th e g en erally g re a te r
relativ e im portance of m igration in in flu en c in g population
change a t regional and su b -re g io n a l scales an d p a rtic u la r
problem s re la tin g to d ata availability a n d re lia b ility . In term s
of d ata p roblem s, th e stu d y of fe rtility s h a re s many of th e
p o ssib ilities an d lim itations of d ata av ailab ility common to any
geographical stu d y of p o p u latio n . T h u s some o f th e lim itations
include u n reliab ility in v ital re g is tra tio n an d c e n su s so u rce s
due to u n d e r-r e p o r tin g , u n d e r-e n u m e ratio n o r m is-statem ent
of inform ation (p a rtic u la rly am ongst sta tistic a lly u n d e r
developed c o u n trie s ); u n av ailab ility of d a ta re g a rd in g c e rta in
key ex p la n a to ry v a ria b le s a n d , u n til re c e n tly , little d ata
available a t th e more detailed scales o f a n a ly sis. H ow ever,
considerable p ro g re s s h a s b een made re c e n tly re g a rd in g data
collection an d publication and th is h as g re a tly a d d ed to th e
scope of geog rap h ical s tu d ie s of f e r tility . T h u s , a t an i n te r
national lev el, v a rio u s ag en cies a re c o n cern ed w ith estim ating
and p u b lish in g p o pulation n u m b ers an d v ital ra te s (p a rtic u
larly th e U nited N ations an d th e Population R eference B u reau )
w h ilst, am ongst developed c o u n trie s in p a rtic u la r, g re a te r
59
F E RT IL IT Y P A TT E RN S IN THE MODERN WORLD
attention has been paid to p ro v id in g more detailed vital s ta t

istic s, detailed census inform ation for small areas and record
linkage via geographical inform ation system s. Furtherm ore,
the in creasin g use of sample su rv e y s co n centrating on fe r
tility o r including fertility questio n s can again prove u seful in
the stu d y of spatial p a tte rn s of fertility - for example the
recent work of th e World F ertility Survey an d , in many
cou n tries, g re a te r reliance on household s u rv e y s. The ad v an
tage of such su rv e y s is th a t th e re se a rc h e r often has access
to inform ation at th e individual level and th a t th e ran g e of
information is much w ider th an th a t associated with th e sta n
dard cen su s. On the o th e r hand th ese su rv e y s are designed
to be re p re se n ta tiv e of the whole co u n try and reliable in fo r
mation at th e sub-national scale is probably only available at
a broad regional level. The General Household S urvey in
B ritain, for example, pro v id es much inform ation on p a tte rn s
of family formation and family size at th e national level,
although problems of sample size p ro h ib it spatial stu d ies at
scales finer th an th a t of th e sta n d a rd region. T hus while it
can be seen th a t population stu d ies will always be ham pered
by "d ata p roblem s", th e ran g e and quality of th e data
sources available for fertility stu d ies h ardly app ears of
relevance in attem pting to u n d e rsta n d g eo g rap h ers neglect of
th is subject.
Finally, the role of th eo ry in spatial stu d ies of fertility
can be b riefly a sse sse d . T here are two main so urces of
theory th a t are applicable to geographical stu d ies of fertility
involving, on the one h an d , a framework th a t is e ith e r e x
plicitly sp atial, such as diffusion th eo ry o r distance decay
relatio n sh ip s, o r, on the o th er h an d , applying theories devel
oped by o th er disciplines (often used in explaining changes
over time) in a spatial se ttin g . T hese two ty p es are often
combined in a single ap p ro ach , such as th e investigation of
the effects of th e spatial diffusion of m odernisation upon
resu ltin g spatial p a tte rn s . Of the firs t ty p e , diffusion theory
provides a tem pting area of stu d y b u t one which pro v es diffi
cult to in v estig ate. T hus it might be expected th a t ideas and
information re g a rd in g fertility would sp read (at a v a riety of
spatial scales) from certain core areas to outlying area s and
th u s influence in v a ry in g d eg rees th e re su ltin g p a tte rn s of
fertility . Jagielski (1980), for exam ple, examines how the
spread of low fertility from u rb an are a s to su rro u n d in g ru ra l
areas can reflect th e diffusion of th e small family norm. How
ev e r, as Jones (1981) su g g e s ts , it is often difficult to e n v is
age what actually co n stitu tes th e pro cess of diffusion. It is
unlikely th a t knowledge of b irth control practices would
diffuse in th is way because a v ariety of historical and a n th ro
pological stu d ies indicate th a t such knowledge is normally
indigenously g e n erated . On the o th e r h an d , the sp re a d of
information concerning the availability of certain artificial
forms of b irth control might have more application to fertility
60
F E R T IL IT Y PA TT E R N S IN T HE MODERN WORLD
studies in certain co n tex ts, b u t even th e n th e key factor is

generally the v ary in g motivations of individuals concerning
the control of fertility ra th e r th a n knowledge about family
limitation in itse lf. However .r a th e r th an th e sp rea d of in fo r
mation reg a rd in g fertility lim itation, th e w ider process of the
diffusion of cu ltu re may well have im portant rep ercu ssio n s on
changing spatial p a tte rn s of fe rtility . T h u s Caldwell's (1977)
example of th e influence and diffusion of w esternisation in
Nigeria would seem to be p articu larly relev an t when examining
the changing spatial p a tte rn s in th a t c o u n try . Diffusion of
information concerning fe rtility behaviour rem ains a tem pting
yet tan talisin g approach to the stu d y of spatial fe rtility . On
the o th er h an d , th e im portance of distance decay relationships
seems more clear c u t, p articu larly in a local context where
there are variations in th e e x ten t to which individuals make
use of certain services (su ch as family planning o r abortion)
in relation to distance from th ese se rv ic e s. While certain
compositional factors will of course influence the ta k e -u p of
these facilities, th e influence of distance may also play a key
role, as seen in a num ber of stu d ie s of family planning
(Fuller 1984). Of th e th eo ries developed by o th e r disciplines
and applied in a spatial co n te x t, th e most widely used -
eith er explicitly o r implicitly - has been th a t of modernisation
theory and p articu larly in th e way in which demographic
transition theory has been applied in a spatial sen se. In some
ways th e seemingly clear cut n a tu re of m odernisation theory
is appealing in th a t fe rtility decline is associated with the
process of economic development and socio-economic change
and these relationships can be applied to v ariations between
and within co u n tries. In th e la tte r context the model of
convergence-divergence provides an in te re stin g off-shoot of
modernisation th eo ry (Coward 1985), although the p ro cess of
modernisation does not always sp read with time o r necessarily
reduce regional economic d ifferences in th e long term . The
advantage of modernisation th eo ry is th a t it can be applied in
a v ariety of se ttin g s and is sufficiently b road to incorporate
many of the key variables affectin g fe rtility . On th e o th e r
hand, the d isadvantages of such a framework - its ra th e r
rigid evolutionary assum ptions, th e d iv erse n a tu re of the
processes c h aracterisin g modernisation and th e ubiquituous
collection of exceptions to th e norm - e n su re th a t
modernisation theo ry cannot o ffer in its e lf an entirely
satisfactory approach. T h u s, depending on th e scale of
stu d y , o th e r theories may be of u se when considering spatial
variations in fe rtility , involving, fo r exam ple, in te r -
generational wealth flows (Caldwell 1977, 1981, 1982), h is
torical materialism (Woods 1982) and the new home economics
(Schultz 1974). F urtherm ore, a more spatially explicit frame
work has been adopted by Eversley (1982), linking th e spatial
mobility of couples d u rin g th e ir c ritical period of family
building with th e ir earn in g pow er, occupation and housing.
61
F E R T I L I T Y P A T T E R N S IN T H E MODERN WORLD
T his fram ew ork was a d o p te d to in v e s tig a te re g io n a l demo

g ra p h ie s in B rita in , b u t it is lik e ly th a t su c h a fram ew ork
can be ap p lied in o th e r s e ttin g s also .
FERTILITY PATTERNS THROUGHOUT THE WORLD
Two g e n e ra l fe a tu r e s c h a r a c te r is e c o n te m p o ra ry fe rtility p a t
te r n s th ro u g h o u t th e w orld: th e c o n sid e ra b le d e g re e o f v a r i
atio n an d wide ra n g e o f v a ria b le s th a t in flu e n c e su c h v a r i
a tio n s. Each o f th e s e th em es a re exam ined in th is se c tio n .
While th e c o n sid e ra b le d iffe re n c e s in fe rtility b etw een th o se
c o u n trie s of th e N o rth e rn a n d S o u th e rn b lo cs (a s d e fin e d by
th e B ra n d t R e p o rt) a re o f q u ite lo n g s ta n d in g , more re c e n t
fe rtility d e c lin e s in some c o u n trie s o f th e S o uth also e n s u re
th a t th e r e is now a c o n sid e ra b le r a n g e of v a ria tio n w ith in th is
bloc. T h u s while fe r tility rem ain s h ig h in some re g io n s , most
o f A frica fo r ex am p le, more m o d erate le v e ls h a v e now b een
a tta in e d in much of S o u th E ast A sia, Mid A m erica a n d T ro p i
cal S o u th A m erica (T ab le 3 .1 ) . H ow ever, o th e r a re a s h av e
a tta in e d m uch low er fe r tility o v e r th e la st th r e e d e c a d e s , as
seen in th e c a se s o f T em p e ra te S o u th A m erica, E ast A sia and
th e C a rib b e a n (T ab le 3 .1 ) . M o reo v er, th e d iffe re n c e s b etw een
in d iv id u a l c o u n trie s a re p a r tic u la r ly la rg e : in K en y a, for
exam ple, c u r r e n tly d isp la y in g th e h ig h e s t lev el of f e r tility ,
a v e ra g e fe r tility is 8 c h ild re n p e r woman (on th e b a s is of
c u r r e n t age sp ecific r a t e s ) , while in s u c h c o u n trie s a s C u b a ,
B a rb a d o s, S in g ap o re a n d Hong K ong th e T o tal F e rtility R ate
is now 2 o r le s s .
A v a r ie ty o f a p p ro a c h e s can b e u tilise d in a tte m p tin g to
ex p lain th e s e v a r ia tio n s . In g e n e ra l te rm s it c e rta in ly a p p e a rs
th a t th e re la tiv e ly low fe r tility of some c o u n trie s o f th e S o u th
is a p ro d u c t o f v a rio u s fa c e ts o f m o d ern isatio n a n d socio
economic d ev elo p m en t, a s s o c ia te d w ith c h a n g in g p o p u latio n
com position a n d a ttitu d e s to family fo rm ation c o n s is te n t w ith
low f e r tility . In d e e d , i t is te m p tin g to re ly on th e m odern
isatio n fram ew ork b a s e d on th e d em o g rap h ic h is to ry of th e
c u r r e n t W estern ised d e v e lo p e d c o u n trie s a n d assum e th a t
c o n tin u e d m o d ern isatio n will in t u r n lead to low le v e ls of
fe r tility in th e c o u n trie s o f th e S o u th . While it may a p p e a r
u n re a lis tic to e x p e c t a re p lic a tio n o f d em o g rap h ic c o n d itio n s
am ongst s u c h a r a n g e o f c o u n trie s d iffe rin g in te rm s of geo
g ra p h ic a n d p o p u latio n s iz e , p o litical o r ie n ta tio n , social s t r u c
tu r e a n d d em o g rap h ic h is to r y it h a s b e e n a rg u e d th a t many
p a ra lle ls can be fo u n d (v a n De Walle a n d K nodel, 1980).
H ow ever, u s in g s u c h a fram ew ork a s m o d ern isatio n d o es ra ise
q u e s tio n s c o n c e rn in g w h e th e r g e n e ra l p a tte r n s can be d is
c e rn e d a c ro s s th e p r e s e n t d e v e lo p in g c o u n trie s a n d , if so,
th e sp ecific v a ria b le s in v o lv e d . A n aly sis of World F e rtility
S u rv e y d a ta on d iffe re n tia l f e r tility in d ic a te s th a t c e rta in
k ey fa c to rs can b e id e n tifie d (L ig h tb o u rn e e t al. 1982). From
a s tu d y o f 29 d e v e lo p in g c o u n trie s it was fo u n d th a t fe rtility
62
T ab le 3 . 1 : F e r t i l i t y R a te s by R egion f o r t h e E a r l y 1 9 8 0 's
T o tal T o tal
Per c a p it a
R egion p o p u la tio n B i r t h R ate F e rtility
GNP (US $)
(m illio n s) R ate
FERTILITY
N o rth A f r i c a 124 41 5 .9 1240
West A f r i c a 161 49 6 .8 660
East A fric a 150 47 6 .6 330
M iddle A f r i c a 60 45 6 .2 420
S o u th e r n A f r i c a 36 36 5 .2 2490
S.W. A sia 110 37 5 .5 4110
PATTERNS
M iddle S outh A s ia 1036 37 5 .3 260
S .E . A sia 393 33 4 .5 720
E. A s ia 1243 20 2 .6 1360
M id dle America 102 34 4 .9 1970
C a rib b e a n 31 26 3 .4 -
T r o p i c a l S o u th America
IN THE MODERN
220 32 4 .3 2120
T em perate So uth America 44 24 2 .7 2440
N. America 262 15 1 .8 13000
N o rth & West Europe 236 12 1.7 11500
E a s t e r n & S o u th e r n Europe 253 15 2 .0 52 70 1
USSR 274 20 2 .5 5940
O c ean ia 24 21 2 .5 8700
^ S o u th e rn Europe o n l y .
WORLD
S o u rc e : 1984 World P o p u l a t i o n D ata S h e e t ( P o p u l a t i o n R e f e r e n c e B u re a u ).
<r.
o-*
F ERTILITY PA TT E R N S IN THE MODERN WORLD
is generally lower th an average amongst th o se groups charac

te rise d by relatively high levels of female education and
where females c o n trib u te to th e non-dom estic labour force in
large p ro p o rtio n s. M oreover, th e re is still a stro n g relation
ship between in fan t m ortality and fertility (L ightbourne et al
1982). B oserup (1984) also em phasises th e im portance of the
socio-economic factors previously m entioned, although in th is
case she broadens out th e th e sis by su g g estin g th a t one of
the key factors influencing low fe rtility , is th a t of in creasing
secu rity and s ta tu s of women.
In some cases it is difficult to asse ss th e precise effects
of certain v ariab les. For exam ple, much discussion has
cen tred on th e role of family planning clinics in influencing
fertility declines. T hus C u trig h t and Kelly (1981), analysing
fertility change in 81 developing c o u n trie s, su g g est th a t th is
factor has th e g re a te st impact on change while, on the o th e r
han d , E b erstad t (1980) a rg u e s th a t th e im portance of th is
factor has been ex a g g e ra ted . A nother p ersp ectiv e to declining
fertility is offered by Caldwell (1977, 1981, 1982), arg u in g
th a t fertility p a tte rn s must be considered in term s of family
relationships in p a rtic u la r, su g g estin g th a t th e main mechan
ism is th a t of th e re v e rsa l of in te r-g e n e ratio n al wealth flows.
He arg u es th a t th e move away from family based production
and th e effects of W esternisation are of p a rtic u la r im portance
in b rin g in g about th ese declines (Caldwell 1977, 1981, 1982).
A nother relevant factor is th a t of b ro a d e r cu ltu ral and
religious factors influencing fe rtility , as w itnessed by the
generally high fertility levels in many Moslem societies (C larke
1984). Again it is difficult to asse ss th e p recise n a tu re of the
links because th e g eneral ideology of th e Koran is not necess
arily p ro -n a ta list (IPPF 1982) an d th e key factor p e rh ap s
concerns the position of women in th ese so cieties, reflected in
the more specific v ariab les of relatively low levels of female
education (compared with males) and limited non-dom estic
employment o p p o rtu n ities. A nother im portant area of in v e sti
gation concerns th e role of political fa c to rs, p articu larly in
the context by which governm ents perceive th e level o f fe r
tility and th e means by which such tre n d s are subject to
control and influence. Finally, it can be seen th a t some p e r
spectives to fertility change ru n co u n ter to th e dominant
themes concerning th e n a tu re of economic developm ent,
m odernisation and dem ographic tra n sitio n . T hus H arrison
(1979), for example, su g g e sts th a t in some a g ric u ltu ra l s e t
tin g s th e key factor is th a t of ru ra l p o v e rty , p a rtic u larly in
areas where th e re is g reat p re s s u re on a g ric u ltu ra l reso u rces
and with small average size of holdings. He a rg u es th a t in
some se ttin g s, p articu larly p a rts of ru ra l Indonesia and
B angladesh, th e population p re s su re on a g ric u ltu ra l reso u rces
provides th e motivation to lower fe rtility and th u s , in some
se ttin g s, th e re is a way out of th e p o v erty tra p . H arrison
raises an in te re stin g p ersp ectiv e although it should be empha
64
sised th a t he p ro v id e s little s ta tis tic a l ev id en ce to s u p p o rt h is

h y p o th e sis n o r does he explain why th e se fa c to rs may be
applicable in some s e ttin g s b u t le ss re le v a n t in o th e r p a r ts o f
th e world which a re likew ise c h a ra c te rise d by co nsiderable
p re s s u re on a g ric u ltu ra l re s o u rc e s , b u t w here fe rtility
rem ains h ig h .
The role of c e rta in of th e more s ta n d a rd v a ria b le s can
be a sse sse d fo r d iffe re n t g ro u p in g s of th e c o u n trie s o f th e
world u sin g recen tly compiled d a ta . In th is case two g ro u p
in g s a re u s e d , re p re s e n tin g all c o u n trie s of th e world fo r
which a d eq u ate d a ta e x ist an d also th o se d eveloping c o u n trie s
(defined as c o n sistin g of th e S o u th ern b lo c ). F e rtility is
m easured by th e T otal F e rtility Rate an d th u s p ro v id e s an
age s ta n d a rd ise d m easu re, alth o u g h it can be noted th a t on
both a worldwide an d d eveloping a re a s only b asis th e re is a
high d eg ree of association betw een th is m easure an d th e b irth
ra te ( r = 0.96 an d 0.94 re s p e c tiv e ly ). T he v aria b les con
cern ed and th e ir h y p o th e sise d re la tio n sh ip w ith fe rtility are
shown in Table 3.2 an d while th is ty p e of s tu d y cannot
a sse ss th e wide ra n g e of p o te n tia l ex p la n a to ry fa c to rs p r e
viously m entioned, it ca n , a t le a s t, in d icate th e n a tu re of
some of th e b ro a d e r a sp e c ts of c e rta in fa c to rs linked to con
tem porary fe rtility p a tte r n s th ro u g h o u t th e w orld. S everal
fe a tu re s a re of in te r e s t. F ir s t, fo r exam ple, at th e se scales of
stu d y th e association betw een GNP a n d fe rtility is r a th e r
weak an d is in fact not in th e d irectio n e x p ecte d fo r th e
group of developing c o u n trie s. In some w ays th is is s u r p r is
ing because th e association te n d s to be s tro n g e r at c o a rse r
levels of a g g re g a tio n , b u t in th is case it may re fle c t th e
continuation of high fe rtility in some relativ ely p ro sp e ro u s
p a r ts of th e developing world (su c h as th e oil ric h are a s of
SW Asia an d N orth A frica) a s well as th e in ab ility of av erag e
GNP to in c o rp o ra te th e im portant fa c to r of income d is tri
b u tio n . The more dem ographic v a ria b le s o f in fa n t m ortality
and early m arriage a re q u ite s tro n g ly lin k ed to v a ria tio n s in
fe rtility an d th e s e fa c to rs a r e , in tu r n , q u ite s tro n g ly linked
to some of th e o th e r socio-economic v a ria b le s. F inally, while
the association betw een fe rtility an d female economic a c tiv ity
at th is scale of stu d y is v e ry w eak, th e re is a much h ig h e r
deg ree o f association betw een fe rtility an d female education
c h a ra c te ris tic s . G enerally sp e a k in g most o f th e se v a ria b le s a re
highly in te rc o rre la te d and p a rtia l c o rre la tio n a n a ly sis con
sid erab ly re d u c e s th e d e g re e of association w ith fe rtility
(Table 3 .2 ) . H ow ever, th e d e g re e o f association betw een
fe rtility an d in fa n t m ortality an d also female lite ra c y rem ains
reasonably high (T able 3 .2 ) . T h u s d e sp ite th e problem s o f
data availability and an in ab ility to m easure some o f th e major
fertility in flu en cin g fa c to rs at th is scale o f s tu d y , it can be
seen th a t c e rta in b ro a d dem ographic a n d socio-economic
facto rs play im portant roles in d iffe re n tia tin g contem porary
fe rtility v ariatio n th ro u g h o u t th e w orld.
65
FERTILITY
T a b le 3 . 2 : R e l a t i o n s h i p s b e tw e e n t h e T o t a l F e r t i l i t y R ate and v a r i o u s
d em o grap hic and s o c i o - e c o n o m ic v a r i a b l e s
V a ria b le Zero O rd er C o r r e l a t i o n / P a r t i a l C o r r e l a t i o n
(an d h y p o t h e s i s e d
PATTERNS
r e l a ti o n s h ip w ith A ll D e v elo p in g A ll D ev elo p in g
fe rtility ) C o u n tries C o u n tries C o u n tries C o u n tries
VI GNP* (-) -0 .2 4 0 .0 4 -0 .1 0 0 .0 1
V2 Urban P o p u l a t i o n (-) -0 .6 4 -0 .4 7 0 .03 0 .0 3
V3 L ab ou r f o r c e i n a g r i c u l t u r e (+) 0 .7 3 0 .5 7 0 .1 5 0 .0 8
IN THE MODERN
V4 In fan t m o rtality (+) 0 .8 2 0 .7 2 0 .38 0 .3 4
V5 E arly m arriage (+) 0 .6 9 0 .5 9 -0 .1 4 -0 .1 5
V6 Females e c o n o m i c a ll y a c t i v e ( - ) -0 .1 3 0 .0 3 -0 .2 7 -0 .2 0
V7 Female l i t e r a c y (-) -0 .8 7 -0 .7 7 -0 .2 8 -0 .3 1
V8 Female S ec o n d ary s c h o o l (-) -0 .7 9 -0 .6 7 -0 .1 3 -0 .2 0
* L ogarithm ic tr a n s fo r m a tio n
V2 % o f t o t a l p o p u l a t i o n l i v i n g i n a r e a s term ed u r b a n by t h a t c o u n t r y ;
WORLD
V3 % o f l a b o u r f o r c e engaged i n a g r i c u l t u r e ; V4 i n f a n t d e a t h s p e r 1000
b i r t h s ; V5 % fe m a le s aged 15-19 i n u n i o n ; V6 fe m a le s 1 5-6 4 , % e c o n o m i c a ll y
a c t i v e ; V7 % a d u l t s l i t e r a t e ; V8 2 12-17 e n r o l l e d i n S e co n d ary S c h o o l.
P a r t i a l c o r r e l a t i o n s r e f e r t o s e v e n t h o r d e r c o r r e l a t i o n s b e tw e e n f e r t i l i t y
an d a s p e c i f i e d v a r i a b l e c o n t r o l l i n g f o r t h e r e m a in i n g s e v e n v a r i a b l e s .
D ata s o u r c e : 1984 w o rld p o p u l a t i o n d a t a s h e e t ; f e r t i l i t y and t h e s t a t u s o f
women; 1982 w o r l d ' s c h i l d r e n d a t a s h e e t . A l l from t h e P o p u l a t i o n R e f e r e n c e
B u reau.
The o th e r fe a tu re of in te r e s t c o n c e rn in g fe rtility p a t
te r n s th a t will be exam ined is th a t of th e v a ry in g p erce p tio n s
of g o vernm ents to w ard s fe rtility . T o d ay , th e p o ten tia l for
governm ents to influ en ce fe rtility p a tte r n s is p a rtic u la rly
g re a t th ro u g h th e influ en ce of th e mass m edia, financial and
socio-economic in c e n tiv e s an d d isin c e n tiv e s an d th e provision
of family p la n n in g se rv ic e s. T h u s th e re c e n t population policy
in China d ire c te d tow ard s th e estab lish m ent of th e one child
family (Yan Tien 1983, H uang 1982) p ro v id es classic illu s
tra tio n s of how quickly fe rtility can decline in c e rta in circum
stan ces a s well as th e loss o f in d iv id u al freedom co n cern in g
some of th e b asic choices inv o lv ed in family form ation. V ari
ations in gov ern m en ts' p ercep tio n of fe rtility th ro u g h o u t th e
world a re disp lay ed in Table 3.3 an d s e v e ra l fe a tu re s a re of
in te r e s t. F irs tly , a larg e nu m b er o f c o u n trie s o u tsid e th e
N orth p erceiv e fe rtility levels as b ein g too h ig h - th e se
include all th e c o u n trie s w ith p a rtic u la rly larg e populations as
well as many of th e sm aller ones too. In term s of population
size, 89 p e r cent o f th e population of Asia re sid e in co u n trie s
p e rc e iv in g fe rtility as too h ig h , while th e c o rre sp o n d in g p ro
p o rtio n s for A frica an d Latin America a re 51 and 30 p e r
(T able 3 .3 ) . Many c o u n trie s p erceiv e fe rtility levels a s s a tis
facto ry : most developed c o u n trie s fall into th is ca te g o ry b u t
it also in clu d es many of th e c o u n trie s an d much of th e p o p u
lation of A frica and Latin America. T he p re c ise reaso n s
involved in th e se p e rc e p tio n s are not fully know n, alth o u g h it
ap p e a rs th a t many of th e se c o u n trie s a re not a v e rse to r e
ductions in fe rtility an d in most cases some pro v isio n for
family p lan n in g se rv ic e s is av ailab le. Finally num erous
governm ents th ro u g h o u t th e world p e rc e iv e fe rtility as too low
and hence may make c o n certed e ffo rts to in c re a se th e b irth
ra te (T able 3 .3 ) . As most a tte n tio n is norm ally given to
co u n trie s a ttem p tin g to low er fe rtility , some c h a ra c te ris tic s of
th is final g ro u p will be a s s e s s e d . T hose c o u n trie s p erc e iv in g
fe rtility as too low a re liste d in Table 3.3 and alth o u g h bein g
dom inated by many of th e E uropean c o u n trie s , also in clu d es
exam ples from A frica, Asia and Latin Am erica. T he situ atio n
in some of th e E uropean c o u n trie s is p e rh a p s most readily
u n d e rsta n d a b le given th e re c e n t fe rtility declines to below
replacem ent levels in many o f th e se c o u n trie s and th e conse
q u e n t co n cern s o v er population d eclin e, sh rin k in g lab o u r
force and ag ein g p o p u la tio n s. F rance is an in te re s tin g
example becau se th e n a tu re an d im plications of fe rtility tre n d s
have b een a sou rce of co n cern fo r much of th is c e n tu ry . In
the more re c e n t p erio d policy h a s been d ire c te d tow ard
s tre n g th e n in g family policy p rovision w hilst attem p tin g not to
ap p e a r explicitly p ro -n a ta lis t (H uss 1980). A sim ilar situ atio n
c u rre n tly app lies in West Germany (Kollman and C astell
R udenhausen 1982). In some E astern E uropean c o u n trie s th e
governm ents have o ffered p a rtic u la rly a ttra c tiv e m aternity
b en efits fo r women w orking o u tsid e th e home in an attem pt to
67
encourage more th re e child fam ilies, a s well as atte m p tin g to

r e s tr ic t th e availability of ab o rtio n se rv ic e s. H ow ever, in
are a s su ch as th e USSR a n d H u n g ary fe rtility h as rem ained
qu ite low and w estern r e s e a rc h e rs su g g e s t th a t a sh o rta g e of
suitab le h o u sin g coupled w ith h ig h co sts of liv in g may be th e
roost im portant fa c to rs h e re (F re sh b a c h 1982, Compton 1984).
It is more d ifficu lt to a s s e s s th e situ a tio n in th o se n o n -
European c o u n trie s b ecau se little inform ation is available con
c e rn in g th e re a so n s b eh in d su ch governm ent p e rc e p tio n s a n d ,
in a d d itio n , fe rtility lev els a re g en erally h igh in th e se a re a s
anyw ay. H ow ever, re le v a n t fa c to rs might in clude a d e sire to
in c re a se population a n d th e size o f th e arm ed fo rces e ith e r a s
a re su lt of re c e n t w ars o r co n flicts (Is ra e l a n d Kam puchia) o r
because of ex p an sio n ist o r th e need to c o u n te r e x p an sio n ist
policies of o th e rs (L ib y a, C had an d C h ile ). P e rh a p s th e most
su rp ris in g exam ples a re th o se in Middle and West A frica,
where to tal fe rtility ra te s a re aro u n d six c h ild re n , b u t th ese
p e rh a p s re fle c t th e stro n g ly felt lin k s betw een national s ta tu s
and population size in some A frican s ta te s .
FERTILITY PATTERNS IN THE BRITISH ISLES
Within th e B ritish Isle s sp atial v a ria tio n s in fe rtility are

evid en t a t a v a rie ty of scales an d in th is section some a sp e c ts
of th e se p a tte rn s a re exam ined w ithin th e s e p a ra te c o n stitu e n t
are a s of E ngland and Wales, S cotland, N o rth ern Ire la n d and
th e Republic of Ire la n d . By way of b a c k g ro u n d s e ttin g , it
can be seen th a t th e re a re c e rta in b ro a d d iffe re n c es betw een
th e se a re a s: th e se g en erally re fle c t th e c o n tra st betw een th e
Republic of Ire la n d , w ith p a rtic u la rly high fe rtility in relation
to most developed c o u n trie s , an d E ngland and Wales, w here
fe rtility is much low er. T h ese d iffe re n c e s can be a ttrib u te d to
num erous c u ltu ra l, socio-economic an d dem ographic fa c to rs ,
fe rtility in th e Iris h R epublic i s , fo r exam ple, betw een 50 and
100 p e r cen t g re a te r th a n th a t in E ngland and Wales. F e rtility
ra te s in Scotland and N o rth ern Ire la n d v a ry betw een th e se
lev e ls, w ith S co ttish fe rtility v e ry sim ilar to th a t o f E ngland
and Wales, while N o rth ern Iris h fe rtility occupies a position
rou g h ly halfway betw een th a t of E ngland an d Wales an d th e
Republic of Ire la n d . Illegitim acy ra tio s , on th e o th e r h a n d ,
are low er in N o rth ern an d S o u th ern Ire la n d . C u rre n t d iffe r
ences in n u p tia lity a re g en erally le ss m arked, alth o u g h some
of th e fe a tu re s of th e tra d itio n a l West E uropean m arriage
p a tte rn (late age at m arriage an d low p ro p o rtio n s m arry in g )
still p re v a il in th e Irish R epublic. Some of th e d iffe re n c e s in
n u p tia lity , p a rtic u la rly at y o u n g a g e s , can be a ttr ib u te d to
th e in c re a sin g p ro p o rtio n of couples co h ab itin g p rio r to , o r
in ste a d o f, m arriage. In E ngland and Wales th e p ro p o rtio n o f
m arried females a t a g es 20-24 declin ed from 63 p e r cen t in
1971 to 46 p e r cen t in 1981, while somewhat sm aller re d u ctio n s
were re c o rd e d fo r Scotland a n d N o rth ern Ire la n d . P resum -
68
T able 3 . 3 : Government p e r c e p t i o n s o f f e r t i l i t y l e v e l by a r e a , number o f
c o u n t r i e s and p e r c e n t a g e d i s t r i b u t i o n o f p o p u l a t i o n
Government P e r c e p t i o n o f F e r t i l i t y L ev el
FERTILITY
Number o f C o u n t r i e s P ercentage of P o p u la tio n
Area Too Too Too Too

High S atisfacto ry Low* High S a tisfacto ry Low
PATTERNS
A frica 26 19 6 51 45 4
A sia 17 18 4 89 10 1
L a t i n America 15 16 3 30 65 5
O c e a n ia 4 3 0 22 78 0
E u ro p e , USSR &
N o r th America 0 20 10 0 61 39
IN THE
S o u r c e : 1984 World P o p u l a t i o n D a ta S h e e t ( P o p u l a t i o n R e f e r e n c e B ureau)
* The c o u n t r i e s c o n c e r n e d a r e a s f o l l o w s : - F r a n c e , Luxembourg, FRG, GDR,
MODERN
Sweden, H un gary , Romania, B u l g a r i a , C y p ru s , G r e e c e , USSR, I s r a e l , L a o s ,
Kampuchia, L i b y a , Chad, C.A .R, Congo, Gabon, E q u a t o r i a l G u in e a , I v o r y
C o a s t , G u in e a , U rag u a y , C h i l e , B o l i v i a .
WORLD
CO
ab ly , in c re a sin g ra te s of c o h ab itatio n , re c o rd e d fo r E ngland

and Wales b y th e G eneral H ousehold S u rv ey (OPCS 1984a),
have p lay ed a su b s ta n tia l role h e re . In th e Irish R epublic, on
th e o th e r h a n d , n u p tia lity at th e s e a g es in c re a se d somewhat
o v er th e decade 1971-81.
In th is section some c h a ra c te ris tic s o f sp atial v ariatio n s
in fe rtility will be exam ined in relatio n to E ngland an d W ales,
S cotland, N o rth ern Ire la n d an d th e Irish R epublic. Two
them es will be exam ined fo r E ngland an d Wales, in volving th e
red u ctio n in regional fe rtility d iffe re n tia ls an d re c e n t v a ri
atio n s in fe rtility a t th e locail scale. For th e rem aining are a s
a tte n tio n will be paid to re c e n t sp atial v a ria tio n s in fe rtility ,
with p a rtic u la r em phasis on d iffe re n tia ls in m arital fe rtility .
ENGLAND AND WALES: T he d eclin in g m agnitude of v ariatio n

at th e regional level
Within E ngland an d Wales th e e x te n t of v a ria tio n in fe rtility at

the regional level h as g en erally d eclined o v e r th is c e n tu ry .
Some c h a ra c te ris tic s o f th is decline a re exam ined h e r e , fo cu s
in g on th o se fa c to rs which have p lay ed major c o n trib u to ry
roles in th is p ro c e s s . F e rtility is exam ined in relation to the
averag e family sizes of c e rta in m arriage co h o rts m easured
from th e C en su s F e rtility R e p o rts of 1951, 1961 and 1971.
A lthough th e d a ta from th e se c e n su se s a re not id en tical in
form , th e y a re su fficien tly sim ilar to be u tilise d in com paring
spatial v a ria tio n s in family size o v e r th e perio d 1926-1971.
The a v erag e family sizes of th e m arriage co h o rts 1926-31,
1936-41 an d 1946-51, a s m easured from th e c e n su se s o f 1951,
1961 and 1971 re s p e c tiv e ly , a re selected fo r a n a ly sis, th u s
re fe rrin g to th e d u ra tio n of m arriage 20-24 y e a rs fo r each of
th e c e n su se s an d co n seq u en tly re p re s e n tin g com pleted o r n e a r
completed fe rtility . For each cohort reg io n al family sizes have
been s ta n d a rd is e d for v a ry in g a g es a t m arriage. T he scale of
stu d y is fairly b ro a d , re p re s e n tin g th e s ta n d a rd re g io n s and
with th e major c o n u rb a tio n s also in clu d ed se p a ra te ly : in 1951
and 1961 th is in v o lv es se v e n te e n a re a s while in 1971 a slig h tly
d iffe re n t se t of u n its is u tilis e d , as a re s u lt of b o u n d a ry
ch a n g e s, id e n tify in g six teen a re a s .
Some g en eral fe a tu re s of th e c h a n g in g reg ional fe rtility
of th e se c o h o rts a re re fle c ted in th e ch a n g in g coefficients of
v a ria tio n . The decline in th e m agnitude of v ariatio n is most
noticeable when com paring th e 1926-31 co h ort (v = 9.8%) with
th a t of th e 1936-41 co h o rt (v = 6.0%) m easured in 1951 and
1961 re sp e c tiv e ly , while th e re a re only minimal d iffe re n c es
betw een th e c o h o rts m easured in 1961 and 1971 (v = 5.8% in
1971). While th e m agnitude o f v a ria tio n declined from 1951 to
1961, th e overall sp a tia l p a tte rn in g of fe rtility rem ained v e ry
much th e sam e, as w itn essed by th e close association betw een
th e two d istrib u tio n s ( r = 0 .9 8 ) . T he sp atial p a tte r n s of
70
relativ e v ariatio n a re shown in F ig u re 3 .1 (w h ere th e overall

fig u re fo r E ngland an d Wales fo r each of th e co h o rts is r e p
rese n te d b y 100) an d again in d ic a te th a t th e v a ria tio n s a re
more m arked in 1951. In 1951 th e sm allest a v e ra g e family sizes
o ccu r in London and th e South East a n d th e co n u rb a tio n s o f
West Y orkshire and South E ast L a n c a sh ire , c o n tra s tin g with
th e la rg e r a v erag e family sizes o c c u rrin g in M erseyside,
C entral an d N o rth ern Wales, T y n esid e an d also th e rem ainder
of th e N o rth ern region (F ig u re 3 .1 ) . T he main ch an g e
betw een th e co h o rts m easured in 1951 an d 1961 was th a t th e
fou r a re a s w ith th e h ig h e st fe rtility in 1951 h a d moved c lo se r
to th e overall level b u t th e ir fe rtility still rem ained generally
h ig h e r th a n th a t of o th e r a re a s - th u s lead in g to th e decline
in th e o v erall m agnitude of v ariatio n b u t also m aintaining th e
same b ro ad sp atial p a tte r n . It is more difficult to assess
p recisely th e c h an g in g d is trib u tio n s betw een 1961 an d 1971
because of ch an g es in regio n al su b -d iv isio n o v e r th is p e rio d ,
by th e g en eral p a tte r n in 1971 seems b ro ad ly com parable with
the p rev io u s p a tte r n s . T h ro u g h o u t th is p e rio d of s tu d y , th e
averag e size of family in th e M erseyside co n u rb atio n h a s been
m arkedly h ig h e r th a n th a t of any o th e r a r e a , a fe a tu re which
can p e rh a p s be a ttr ib u te d to th e in flu x o f relativ ely large
num bers of m igrants from Irelan d coupled w ith th e social class
c h a ra c te ristic s of th e c o n u rb a tio n . Again it can be n o ted ,
how ever, th a t a v erag e family sizes have moved c lo se r to th e
national level: in 1951 fe rtility was some 33 p e r cent h ig h e r,
while th e co rre sp o n d in g fig u re for 1971 was 18 p e r c e n t.
T his decline in th e e x te n t o f reg io nal v a ria tio n is a
p ro d u ct of num erous p ro c e sse s b u t two would seem to have
p a rtic u la r im portance - th e decline of social c la ss d iffe re n tia ls
and th e e ffe c ts of regional co n v erg en ce. F irs tly , th e period
1900-40 was one c h a ra c te ris e d b y major declines in w orking
class fe rtility as a re su lt of a v a rie ty of social, economic,
dem ographic an d political fa c to rs (G itte n s 1982) a n d , given
the uneven sp atial d is trib u tio n of social c la s s , th is is likely to
have had im portant re p e rc u ssio n s on th e sp a tia l d istrib u tio n
of fe rtility . U n fo rtu n a te ly , d a ta c o n c e rn in g family size by
social class a re not available fo r th e se p a ra te a re a s and
th erefo re th is h y p o th e sis rem ains d ifficu lt to v e r if y , alth o u g h
the overall re d u c tio n s in family size b y social c la ss fo r th e
m arriage c o h o rts 1926-31 and 1946-51 a re q u ite co n sid e ra b le ,
with th e coefficient of v ariatio n d ro p p in g from 18 to 9 p e r
cent (T able 3 .4 ) . For th e m arriage co h o rt m easured in 1951
th e re is a fairly s tro n g co rre sp o n d e n c e ( r = 0 .6 5 ) betw een
regional a v erag e family sizes an d social c la ss (m easured as
the p ro p o rtio n of males in c lasses IV an d V) an d th e n arro w
ing of th e o v erall class d iffe re n tia l is th e re fo re likely to have
had im portant sp atial co n seq u en ces on fe rtility . T he close
association betw een th e two v a ria b le s was m aintained in 1971
( r = 0 .8 4 ). A nother fe a tu re of in te r e s t is th e d isa p p ea ra n ce
of th e p u re ly in v e rse relatio n sh ip b etw een fe rtility an d social
71
-a
FERTILITY
to
PATTERNS
DURATION OF MARRIAGE : 20 - 24 YEARS
IN THE MODERN
WORLD
M arrlag* C o h o rt 1 9 2 6 -3 1
Fig. 3.1 R egional v a ria tio n s in family size in E ngland and Wales: 1951, 1961 and 1971.
T a b le 3 . 4 : V a r i a t i o n s i n f a m i l y s i z e by s o c i a l c l a s s i n 1951 and 1971,
FERTILITY
d u r a t i o n o f m a r r i a g e 20-24 y e a r s ( s t a n d a r d i s e d f o r age a t m a r r i a g e )
1951 1971
S o c ia l C lass
A c tu a l S tan d ard ised A ctual S tan d ard ised
PATTERNS
I 1 .7 7 1 .86 2 .1 3 2 .1 8
II 1.91 1 .98 2 .0 3 2 .0 6
Illn 1 .9 0 1.94
2 .2 6 2 .2 7
H im 2 .2 5 2 .1 7
IV 2.7 1 2 .6 9 2 .2 9 2 .2 6
IN THE MODERN
V 3 .0 2 2 .9 7 2 .5 8 2 .5 6
C o e ffic ie n t
o f v a r i a t i o n (%) 2 0 .2 1 7 .8 9 .8 8 .7
S o u r c e : C e n su se s o f 1951 and 1971. D ata r e f e r t o women m a r r i e d once o n ly

en u m e ra te d w i t h h u s b a n d . D ata f o r 1951 r e f e r t o women aged l e s s t h a n 50 a t
tim e o f C e n s u s , b a s e d on a 20% sam ple o f t h e f u l l C en su s.
WORLD
-o
w
class o v e r th is p erio d (T ab le 3 .4 ) which could also have

b lu rre d some of th e more im p o rtan t d iffe re n c e s in th e reg ional
d istrib u tio n of family size.
T he o th e r im portant fa c to r c o n trib u tin g to th e c o n v e r
gence of regional fe rtility levels h as been th e regional con
v erg en ce of c e rta in k ey com positional fa c to rs in flu en cin g
fe rtility . One su ch fa c to r is th a t of female p a rtic ip a tio n in th e
paid lab o u r force an d G itten s (1982), fo r exam ple, a rg u e s
th a t th is fa c to r was a major d eterm in an t of ch an g in g a ttitu d e s
to family size by ex p o sin g women to v a ry in g norm s an d values
con cern in g m arriage an d family form ation, g e n e ra tin g g re a te r
in d ep en d en ce an d by h elp in g th e developm ent o f joint role
relatio n s w ithin m arriage (a fa c to r o ften asso ciate d w ith lower
fe rtility ). In 1951 th e re w ere m oderate n eg a tiv e associations
betw een regional family sizes an d th e p ro p o rtio n s of females
economically activ e ( r = -0 .2 5 ) and m arried women economi
cally active ( r = -0 .4 0 ). P articip atio n ra te s were h ig h e r th a n
averag e in th e West Y o rk sh ire an d South East L ancashire
co n u rb atio n s (dom inated by te x tile s ) an d also G reate r London
(dom inated b y clerical p o s itio n s), in c o n tra s t with th e lower
th a n a v erag e levels in more ru ra l C en tral and N orth Wales
and th e N o rth ern region (e x c lu d in g T y n e sid e ). How ever, in
some in sta n c e s th e association betw een fe rtility an d female
p articip atio n is less cle a r c u t, as seen in th e c ases of
M erseyside (p a rtic u la rly high fe rtility and h ig h e r th an
a v erag e p a rtic ip a tio n ) and th e South E ast (low fe rtility and
p a rtic ip a tio n ). H ow ever, r e tu r n in g to th e p re s e n t h y p o th e sis,
a dominant fe a tu re of ch an g e betw een 1951 and 1971 was th a t
the sp atial d istrib u tio n s of p a rtic ip a tio n became le ss concen
tra te d . T his is re fle c te d in th e c h an g in g coefficient of local
isation betw een 1951 an d 1971, which d ro p p ed from 30% to 9%
fo r v ariatio n s in m arried women economically active and from
17% to 8% for v ariatio n s in all females economically ac tiv e .
T hese c h a n g e s, re fle c tin g th e g re a te s t re lativ e in c re a se s in
female p a rtic ip a tio n in th o se a re a s w ith tra d itio n ally low er
p articip atio n r a te s , could p a rtly re fle c t th e a lte ra tio n s in th e
spatial u n its o v e r th is p e rio d , alth o u g h it seems unlikely th a t
th is could account fo r th e major p a r t of su c h c h a n g e s. It can
also be o b serv ed th a t th e social c la ss d is trib u tio n s o f males
also co n v erg ed o v e r th is p e rio d , alth o u g h not to th e same
e x te n t, th e coefficient of localisation d ro p p in g from 10% to 7%.
T h u s th e p erio d of s tu d y re p r e s e n ts one of con sid erab le
convergence in term s of some of th e com positional elem ents of
th e population an d th is , coupled w ith th e w ider dissem ination
of v alu es an d c u ltu re th ro u g h th e mass media, p ro b ab ly
played an in flu en tial role in th e d eclin in g e x te n t o f regional
fe rtility v ariatio n .
T h u s while th is an aly sis h a s not been able to examine
the ra n g e of v a ria b le s stu d ie d by G ittins (1982), it seems
likely th a t th e declin in g d iffe re n tia ls in fe rtility by social
74
class and th e tr e n d tow ard reg io n al c o n v e rg en c e have played

major roles in ex p lain in g c h an g in g reg io n al fe rtility c h a ra c
te r is tic s . Finally, while th is section h a s c o n c e n tra te d on th e
declining e x te n t of com pleted (o r n e a r com pleted) family size
it should also be em phasised th a t reg io n al v a ria tio n s in o th e r
a sp e c ts of fe rtility b e h a v io u r a re s till q u ite m arked. F or
exam ple, re c e n t d a ta co n cern in g v a ria tio n s in illegitim ate
m atern ities, ab o rtio n s an d m atern ities legitim ated following
m arriage (OPCS 1984b) in d ic a te th a t th e regional v a ria tio n s
are still q u ite p ro n o u n ced . In d e e d , O v erton (1982), in an
analy sis of fe rtility d iffe re n tia ls in E ngland and Wales,
su g g e s ts th a t in some c a s e s , su ch as th e tim ing of firs t
p re g n a n c y o r th e co n tro l of p re g n a n c ie s am ongst th e u n d e r
tw e n tie s, th e socio-economic d iffe re n c es may be w idening.
T h u s regional co n v erg en ce in one a sp e c t o f fe rtility may not
necessarily in d ic a te a g e n e ra l reg io n al co n v erg en ce in all
fe rtility c h a ra c te ris tic s .
ENGLAND AND WALES: V ariations a t th e d is tric t level
While contem porary regional v a ria tio n s in a v e ra g e family size

in E ngland an d Wales a re relativ ely sm all, th e re still ex ist
qu ite pro n o u n ced v a ria tio n s in c u r r e n t fe rtility at more local
lev els. In many cases local age s tr u c tu r e s p ro d u ce c o n sid e r
able v ariatio n in th e b ir th r a te , b u t , in ad d itio n , th e re a re
often m arked v a ria tio n s in age s ta n d a rd is e d fe rtility
m easures. T h is section exam ines some c h a ra c te ris tic s o f rec en t
age sta n d a rd ise d fe rtility in E ngland an d Wales with p a rtic u la r
em phasis on p a tte r n s at th e d is tric t level of a g g re g a tio n .
T he p re se n c e of co n sid erab le sp a tia l v ariatio n in age
sta n d a rd ise d fe rtility a t th e d is tric t level is re fle c ted in th e
fact th a t in 1981 approxim ately one q u a r te r of all d is tric ts
d iffered from th e o v erall level fo r E ngland and Wales b y te n
p e r cen t o r m ore. T his com pares w ith only 3 o f th e 53 a re a s
at th e county level. T hese d is tr ic ts w ith p a rtic u la rly high o r
low fe rtility a re shown in F igure 3.2 an d th e immediate im
p re ssio n is th a t of a widely s c a tte re d d is trib u tio n . T h e re a r e ,
how ever, c e rta in co n c e n tra tio n s of su c h a re a s , su c h a s in
east L ancashire and p a r ts of th e G re a te r M anchester and West
Y orkshire co n u rb atio n s (h ig h f e r tility ) : S outh Wales (h ig h
fe rtility ); In n e r London (g e n e ra lly low f e r tility ); p a r ts of th e
West Midlands co n u rb a tio n , South W arw ickshire an d N orth
G lo u cestersh ire (low fe rtility ) an d th e frin g e s of G re a te r
London (g en erally low f e r tility ) . It is also p o ssible to a sse ss
the co n trib u tio n s of each of th e th re e main com ponents of
fe rtility - m arital f e rtility , p ro p o rtio n s m arried and e x tr a
m arital fe rtility - to th e se sp atial p a tte r n s . T he re su ltin g
classification ta b u la te s a re a s of re la tiv e ly h ig h o r low fe rtility
in relation to th e com ponent (o r com bination of com ponents)
mainly resp o n sib le fo r in flu en cin g su c h p a tte r n s (T able
75
FERTILITY
PATTERNS
IN THE
MODERN
WORLD
F ig . 3 .2
D is tric ts w ith p a r tic u
la rly h ig h o r p a rtic u la rly
low age s ta n d a rd is e d
f e r tility , 1981.
3 . 5 ) . 1 G enerally sp e a k in g , th e com ponents fo r any one area

ten d to act in th e same d ire c tio n , su c h th a t a re a s w ith
relativ ely h ig h fe rtility te n d to be asso ciated with h ig h e r th a n
averag e v alu es fo r each of th e com ponents. H ow ever, v a rio u s
excep tio n s can be n o te d , th e most notable b ein g th o se a re a s
in In n e r London w here low fe rtility is b ro u g h t ab o u t by p a r
ticu la rly low p ro p o rtio n s m arried a n d o c c u rs d e s p ite , in many
c a se s, levels of m arital and e x tra -m a rita l fe rtility well above
a v e ra g e .
V arying n u p tia lity o c c u rs most fre q u e n tly as th e domi
nant fa c to r c h a ra c te ris in g f e rtility , p lay in g an im p o rtan t ro le ,
e ith e r singly o r in com bination w ith th e o th e r com ponents, in
71 of th e 108 c a se s. T he c o rre sp o n d in g fig u re s fo r m arital
and ex tra -m a rital fe rtility a re 41 and 37 re sp e c tiv e ly . The
effect of relativ ely low n u p tia lity in b rin g in g about low f e r
tility is seen p a rtic u la rly fo r some a re a s in In n e r London and
certain medium sized tow ns in S o u th ern E ngland (T able 3 .5 ) .
While th e se p a tte r n s may be in flu en ced by re lativ ely high
levels of cohabitation in some a r e a s , p a rtic u la rly In n e r
London, th e major in flu e n c in g fa c to r would a p p e a r to be th e
m igration of y o ung single people to th e se a re a s , hence b rin g
in g about low n u p tia lity an d low f e r tility . T he fact th a t many
of th e tow ns and c itie s a re se rv ic e c e n tre s and u n iv e rsity
tow ns (s u c h as C am bridge, E x e te r, C a n te rb u ry a n d O xford)
is again likely to be a facto r a ttra c tin g m ig ra n ts. In d e e d , th e
high cost of h o u sin g in some of th e se tow ns may re s u lt in
those couples in th e e a rly s ta g e s o f family form ation moving
to o u tly in g a re a s of c h e a p e r h o u sin g . On th e o th e r h a n d ,
those a re a s of re la tiv e ly h ig h fe rtility in flu en ced by high
nup tiality a re o ften small tow ns w ith new h o u sin g develop
ments (su ch a s P e te rb o ro u g h , Milton K eynes and H alton)
which have a ttra c te d th e m igration o f y o u n g couples in p a r
tic u la r.
1For each a re a th e e x p ected n u m b ers o f leg itim ate, illegitim ate

and total b ir th s w ere d e riv e d from national age specific
fe rtility r a te s . T he d iffe re n c e betw een a c tu a l an d ex p ected
to tal num bers was th e n a p p o rtio n ed in to th e re la tiv e ex c e ss
o r deficit of legitim ate and illegitim ate an d th e balance was
assum ed to reflect v a ria tio n s in p ro p o rtio n s m arrie d . Single
fa c to r com ponents w ere d efin ed as th o se com ponents w here
th e e x c e ss o r d eficit of b ir th s asso ciated w ith th is facto r
were more th a n double th e size o f th e n e x t most im portant
com ponent. Double fa c to r com ponents w ere defined as th o se
com ponents each c o n trib u tin g at le a st 30 p e r ce n t to th e
ex cess o r d eficit wliile th e th ird com ponent c o n trib u te d less
th a n 20 p e r c e n t. T h re e fa c to r com binations w ere defin ed as
each component c o n trib u tin g a t le a st 20 p e r cen t to th e
ex cess o r deficit of b ir th s .
77
FERTILITY
oo Table 3.5: Districts with particularly high or low age standardised fertility in 1981 by major influencing factors
All three
Single Component Double Component Components
Marital Marital Proportions
PATTERNS
Proportions Marital Extra-marital fertility/ fertility/ married/
married fertility fertility proportions extra-marital extra-marital
married fertility fertility
A. Fertility > 10% higher than expected

Mid. Bedford Tower Hamlets Middlesborough Luton Newham Bolton Bradford
IN THE
Halton Watford Leicester Slough Birmingham Burnley Blackburn
Peterborough Woking Mid-Devon Hackney Rossendale Pendle
Copeland Crawley East Hants Knowsley Ipswich
Maldon Alnwick Derby S. Pembroke
Eastleigh Wrexham Gt. Grimsby Oldham
MODERN
Gosport Anglesea Preston Rochdale
Rushmoor Radnor Newport
Redditch
Rochester
Hyndburn
WORLD
Richmondshire
Tamworth
Mid-Suffolk
Kennet
Dinefwr
Presell
Merthyr Tid.
Rhymney
Milton Keynes
Suble
Gillingham
Rhondda
B. Fertility > 10% lower than expected
Bromley Sheffield S. Lakeland
Camden Solihull Epping Forest
Hammersmith Kingswood Winchester
and Fulham Broxtowe Harrogate
Kensington Gedling
and Chelsea Newcastle U.L
Richmond Oswestry
Wandsworth
Westminster
Bath
Cambridge
Exeter
Brighton
Eastbourne
Hove
York
Three Rivers
Canterbury
Oxford
Ceredigion
See Footnote 1 for explanation of terms.
-3
<£>
Bournemouth W. Derby S. Bucks
Cheltenham W. Dorset Brentwood
Blackpool Durham Welwyn Hatfield
S. Shrops Cotsvold Epsom
Beverley Relgate
Oadby Runnymede
Castle Morpeth Spelthorne
FERTILITY
Selby
Stratford U.A.
PATTERNS
IN THE
MODERN
WORLD
F E RT IL IT Y PA TT E R N S IN THE MODERN WORLD
V ariations in m arital fe rtility also play an im portant role

in ch a ra c terisin g are a s of relativ ely high and low fertility .
Thus in four cases it plays a dominant role in influencing
high fertility (Table 3 .5 ) and in th re e of th e se cases the
areas concerned are towns c h a ra c terise d by the development
of housing schemes o v er th e last fifteen y e ars (W atford,
Woking and C raw ley). T his featu re seems co n sisten t with
E versley's (1982) th e sis th a t many young couples in ten d in g
family building move to are a s with reasonably good access to
cheaper housing in o rd e r to use th e ir financial reso u rces most
efficiently at a time when such re so u rces are often s tre tc h e d .
This featu re also seems applicable to th e cases of Luton and
Slough, where relatively high m arital fe rtility and p ro portions
married co n trib u te to high fe rtility . In o th e r areas th e high
marital fertility may be a re su lt of th e relatively large p ro
portions of th e population of New Commonwealth and Pakistan
o rig in , as seen , fo r exam ple, in Tower Hamlets a n d , combined
with high ex tra-m arital fe rtility , Newham and Hackney (In n e r
London) and also Birmingham. On th e o th e r h an d , p a rtic u
larly low marital fe rtility b rin g s about low fertility in a
v ariety of d ifferen t are a s (Table 3 .5 ). In some c a se s, for
example, th e relatively high social s ta tu s of th e a reas con
cerned may lead to lower fertility as in Solihull and
Kingswood an d , combining with one of th e o th e r com ponents,
West D erb y sh ire, Beverley and South S h ro p sh ire.
The contribution of ex tra-m arital fertility in influencing
age stan d ard ised fertility is often in conjunction with one of
the o th er components. Here it is more d ifficult to a sse ss the
spatial p a tte rn s because variatio n s in ex tra-m arital fe rtility by
socio economic g rouping are not fully documented although it
is known th a t ra te s are generally high amongst immigrant
groups of C aribbean o rig in . More re c e n tly , th e link between
high ex tra-m arital fertility and high youth unemployment has
been su g g ested (Campbell 1984). On th is b a sis, some areas
with relatively high fe rtility influenced wholly o r p a rtly by
high ex tra-m arital fe rtility can be linked with relatively large
C aribbean immigrant populations (H ackney, Birmingham and
Newham) o r high levels of male and female youth unemploy
ment (M iddlesborough, Knowsley and South P em brokeshire).
Many of th e areas with low fertility in which low ex tra-m arital
fertility plays a co n trib u to ry role ten d to be associated with
relatively high social s ta tu s and low levels of y outh unemploy
m ent, as seen in th e cases of W inchester, H arrogate and
South B uckingham shire.
It can also be noted th a t th e spatial variations around
London seem to follow a d istin c t p a tte rn in th a t while In n er
London is associated with are a s of b o th relatively high and
low fe rtility , many of th e are a s of th e su b u rb an frin g e of
G reater London are associated with low fe rtility (p articu larly
on th e n o rth e rn , w estern and south w estern ed g es) while, on
the o th e r h an d , many of th e outlying a reas are associated
80
with high fe rtility (su c h as L uton, Milton K eynes, Gillingham,

R o ch ester an d R ushm oor). T hese la tte r fe a tu re s can again
p e rh a p s be ex p lain ed in relatio n to E v e rsle y 's (1982) th e s is
th a t couples in th e e a rly p h ase of family form ation (th o se with
high level of c u r r e n t fe rtility ) may be in clin ed to move to
more o u tly in g a re a s in se a rc h of c h e a p e r h o u sin g , while
couples who have d elay ed o r fin ish ed family form ation may
have g re a te r d isposable re s o u rc e s fo r th e g en erally h ig h e r
house p ric e s in th e o u te r s u b u r b s o f G re a te r L ondon. It is
difficult to v e rify th is h y p o th e sis from th e evid en ce p re s e n te d
h e re , b u t th e re g u la rity o f th e sp atial p a tte r n s in a n d aro u n d
London would s u g g e s t th a t c e rta in key socio-econom ic fa c to rs
are o p e ra tin g .
Finally, th e overall v a ria tio n s in age sta n d a rd is e d f e r
tility for th e to tal num ber o f d is tr ic ts (403) in E ngland and
Wales can be a sse sse d in relatio n to a ra n g e o f sta n d a rd
dem ographic an d socio-econom ic v a ria b le s d e riv e d from th e
c e n su s. Some o f th e se fa c to rs p ro v e d ifficu lt to m easure as
in , for exam ple, th e e ffe c ts o f th e m igration o f you n g couples
w h ere, due to u navailability of more p re c ise in fo rm atio n , th e
ra te of n e t m igration o v e r th e p e rio d 1971-81 fo r th e whole
population is u tilise d . T he v a ria b le s co n c ern ed an d th e ir
relatio n sh ip with fe rtility a re shown in T able 3 .6 . The zero
o rd e r co rrelatio n s a re all in th e e x p e c te d d ire c tio n , w ith fo u r
of th e e ig h t g re a te r th a n 0 .3 5 . Five o f th e v a ria b le s make a
significant c o n trib u tio n to th e overall v a ria tio n s in fe rtility in
the con tex t of a stepw ise re g re ssio n model, acco u n tin g fo r 50
p e r cen t of th e v ariatio n (T able 3 .6 ) . A p art from m arital
s ta tu s , th e most im portant socio-economic v a ria b le s a re those
of female unem ploym ent, im m igrant p o p u la tio n s, female e d u
cation an d th e p a rtic ip a tio n of m arried women in th e la b o u r
force. H ow ever, th e la tte r two v a ria b le s only c o n trib u te mar
ginal in c re a se s in th e p ro p o rtio n o f th e v aria tio n e x p lain e d .
T hus it can be seen th a t on an o v erall b a s is c e rta in sta n d a rd
dem ographic an d socio-economic v a ria b le s account fo r about
one h alf of th e v a ria tio n in age sta n d a rd ise d fe rtility in
England and Wales, in d ic a tin g th a t th e se a rc h fo r f u r th e r
relev an t v a ria b le s should c o n tin u e . F u tu re a n a ly sis, fo r
exam ple, will hopefully u tilise a more a p p ro p ria te m easure o f
migration th a n th e one u tilise d h e re a s well a s exam ining
housing c h a ra c te ris tic s in more d e ta il.
FERTILITY VARIATIONS IN SCOTLAND
The p io n eerin g c o n trib u tio n s to th e s tu d y o f re c e n t v a ria tio n s

in S cottish fe rtility have b een th o se o f Jo n e s (1975) and
Wilson (1978) who have exam ined v a ria tio n s in th e b ir th ra te
in 1971-72 an d v a ria tio n s in family size m easured in 1971
resp e c tiv e ly . Both conclude th a t th e r e a re q u ite m arked d if
feren ces in fe rtility a t th e county level o f a g g re g a tio n a n d
61
00
FERTILITY
to
T a b le 3 . 6 : R e l a t i o n s h i p b e tw ee n a ge s t a n d a r d i s e d f e r t i l i t y and v a r i o u s
d e m o g ra p h ic and s o c i o - e c o n o m ic v a r i a b l e s , 1981
Z C o n trib u tio n to
PATTERNS
V ariab le Z ero o r d e r v a r i a t i o n ( c u m u la t iv e
(and h y p o t h e s i s e d r e l a t i o n s h i p c o rre la tio n % from s t e p w i s e
w ith f e r t i l i t y ) w ith f e r t i l i t y reg ressio n)
VI P r o p o r t i o n s m a r r i e d (+) 0 .54 29
V2 Female Unemployment (+) 0 .3 7 40
IN THE MODERN
V3 Im m ig rant P o p u l a t i o n * (+) 0 .0 1 48
V4 Female E d u c a ti o n ( - ) -0 .4 6 49
V5 P a r t i c i p a t i o n o f m a r r i e d women ( - ) -0 .1 3 50
V6 S o c i a l c l a s s e s (+) 0 .3 9 -
V7 T e n u re : owner o c c u p a t i o n ( - ) -0 .0 6 -
V8 M i g r a t i o n (+) 0 .1 0 -
R eg ressio n E q u a tio n :-
Y - 5 7 .4 + 0 .0 1 VI + 0 .1 1 V2 + 9 . 0 V3 - 0 .0 4 V4 -- 0 .0 2 V5
WORLD
* L o g arith m ic tr a n s f o r m a tio n .
VI X f e m a l e s 15-29 m a r r i e d ; V2 p r o p o r t i o n o f f e m a l e s aged 16-59 unemployed;
V3 % o f p o p u l a t i o n b o r n i n t h e New Commonwealth, P a k i s t a n and I r e l a n d ;
V4 % o f f e m a l e s w i t h h i g h e r e d u c a t i o n ; V5 % o f m a r r i e d women ag ed 16-59
e c o n o m i c a l l y a c t i v e ; V6 % o f p o p u l a t i o n w i t h h e a d s o f h o u s e h o l d i n s o c i a l
c l a s s e s IV and V; V7 % o f p r i v a t e h o u s e h o l d s owner o c c u p i e d ; V8 o v e r a l l n e t
m i g r a t i o n r a t e 19 71 -81 .
th a t c e rta in key v a ria b le s play an im p o rtan t role in c o n tri

b u tin g to th e se v a ria tio n s . T h is sectio n exam ines fe rtility
p a tte rn s in 1981 an d a tte m p ts to d isc e rn i f th e c h a ra c te ris tic s
o b serv ed in 1971 a re applicable to more re c e n t v a ria tio n s. T he
stu d y c o n c e n tra te s on c u r r e n t fe rtility b e ca u se q u e stio n s
rela tin g to ch ild re n e v e r b o rn w ere om itted from th e U nited
Kingdom c e n su s of 1981.
Jo n es' (1975) s tu d y em phasises th a t v a ria tio n s in age
and m arital s tr u c tu r e play a major role in in flu e n cin g sp a tia l
v ariatio n s in th e b ir th ra te in 1971-72. On th is b a s is , th e r e
fore, it might be e x p e c te d th a t th e e x te n t o f v a ria tio n in
those fe rtility m easures ta k in g account o f su ch v a ria b le s
would be much le ss th a n th a t of th e b ir th r a te . H ow ever, th is
does not a p p e a r to be th e case an d fo r 1981 th e m agnitude of
relativ e v ariatio n in th e b ir th ra te (co efficient of v a riatio n =
11%) is only slig h tly g re a te r th a n th a t fo r th e index o f overall
fertility (10%), which in d ire c tly s ta n d a rd is e s fo r a g e , and th e
index of m arital fe rtility (9%), acco u n tin g fo r age and m arital
s tr u c tu r e . In te re s tin g ly th e e x te n t o f re la tiv e v ariatio n in th e
illegitim acy ra te (30%) is p a rtic u la rly la rg e . T he re lativ e
degree of v ariatio n in th e b ir th ra te in 1981 was somewhat
h ig h e r th a n th a t fo r 1971, alth o u g h th e c u r r e n t s tu d y is
based on a la rg e r num ber of sp atial u n its as a re s u lt o f
bou n d ary ch an g es (56 a s opposed to 31 u se d b y Jo n es) and
consequently p ro v id e s a more detailed summary th a n th a t
available fo r 1971.
In 1981 th e g e n e ra l p a tte r n of v a ria tio n in th e b ir th ra te
was bro ad ly sim ilar to th a t of 1971 (allow ing fo r d iffe re n c e s in
th e spatial u n its u tilis e d ) , w ith re la tiv e ly low ra te s am ongst
the b o rd e r a re a s , th e T ay sid e reg io n an d th e cities o f
A berd een , D undee and E d in b u rg h . T h is c o n tra s ts w ith th e
generally h ig h e r r a te s in much o f u rb a n c e n tra l S cotland,
p artic u la rly th e e a s te rn side of th e Glasgow c o n u rb a tio n . One
d ifferen ce, h ow ever, is th a t in 1981 re la tiv e ly h ig h b irth
ra te s o c c u r in many of th e c o u n ties o f th e H ighlands and
Isla n d s, w hereas th is fe a tu re was much le ss a p p a re n t in
1971-72. V ariations in age s ta n d a rd is e d fe rtility can b e b e st
illu s tra te d b y u sin g C oale's in d ic e s, in which v a ria tio n s in
overall fe rtility re fle c t th e v a rie d c o n trib u tio n s o f m arital
fe rtility , p ro p o rtio n s m arried an d e x tra -m a rita l f e r tility .2
Indeed, v a ria tio n s in th e s e com ponents illu s tr a te th a t th e
spatial p a tte r n s a re b y no means sim ilar (F ig u re 3 .3 ) . For
exam ple, th e p a tte rn of v a ria tio n in m arital fe rtility is q u ite
d iffe re n t from th a t of v a ria tio n s in e ith e r p ro p o rtio n s m arried
2Coales in d ices a re age s ta n d a rd is e d m easures b ased on a

comparison betw een a c tu a l an d e x p e c te d b ir th s , w here th e
la tte r a re d e riv e d from th e H u tte rite age specific fe rtility
ra te s 1921-30 which a re tak en to re p r e s e n t n a tu ra l f e rtility .
See Coale (1967).
83
o r e x tra -m a rita l fe rtility ( r = -0 .1 1 an d 0.15 r e s p e c tiv e ly ),

with th e sp atial p a tte r n of m arital fe rtility dom inated b y th e
relativ ely h ig h ra te s of many of th e w est coast h ighland
a re a s , th e W estern Is le s , Moray an d some e a s te rn a re a s o f th e
Glasgow co n u rb atio n (F ig u re 3 .3 ) . In d eed th is p a tte r n is
bro ad ly sim ilar to th a t of v a ria tio n s in family size as exam ined
by Wilson (1978), em phasisin g th e c o n tin u ity in m arital f e r
tility o v e r time an d a c ro ss b o th c ro ss-se c tio n a l a n d cohort
m easu res. Both Jo n es a n d Wilson show th a t c e rta in key
compositional v a ria b le s su c h as female a c tiv ity , social cla ss
and religion play a sig n ifican t p a r t in ac c o u n tin g fo r v a ri
ations in fe rtility an d it would th u s be e x p ec ted th a t v a r i
atio n s in m arital fe rtility in 1981 would also be p a rtly
explained b y su c h v a ria b le s . T he s tr e n g th of th e se asso ci
atio n s a re sum m arised in T able 3.7 an d th e v a ria b le s co n ce rn
ing th e p ro p o rtio n of th e la b o u r force in a g ric u ltu re and
hou sin g te n u re have also b een ad d ed to th e a n a ly sis In th e
case of th e la tte r , it h as been shown re c e n tly th a t te n u re can
play a major role in c o n trib u tin g to d iffe re n tia l fe rtility in
B ritain (M urphy an d S u lliv an , 1983). T he co rrelatio n s
betw een m arital fe rtility an d th e rem aining v a ria b le s a re all,
with th e ex cep tio n o f te n u r e , in th e h y p o th e sise d d irectio n
and th e v ariab le w ith th e g re a te s t e x p lan a to ry pow er is ,
sim ilar to Wilson's s tu d y , th a t o f th e p a rtic ip a tio n o f m arried
females in th e paid la b o u r force (T able 3 .7 ) . In a stepw ise
re g re ssio n model, two o f th e s e com positional v a ria b le s are
sig n ifican t (p a rtic ip a tio n of m arried women in th e p aid lab o u r
force an d religious d en o m in atio n ), a c co u n tin g for 60 p e r cent
o f th e v a ria tio n in m arital fe rtility in 1981. On th e o th e r
h an d , th e se com positional v a ria b le s p lay a much le ss im portant
role in acco u n tin g fo r v a ria tio n s in p ro p o rtio n s m a rried ,
w here th e sp atial p a tte r n s a re le ss clearly d isc e rn ib le . In th is
case low n u p tia lity o c c u rs in th e major c itie s (p e rh a p s due to
th e in -m ig ratio n of you n g sin g le females to th e se a re a s as well
as a g re a te r d e g re e of c o h a b ita tio n ), th e w e ste rn isle s an d
p a r ts of th e H ighland an d Gram pian re g io n s. In te re s tin g ly ,
th e p a tte r n of illegitim acy is also v a rie d , re fle c tin g th e high
ra te s in th e u rb a n a re a s of Glasgow an d D undee an d some
are a s in th e H ighlands su c h a s Ross an d C rom arty an d also
S u th erlan d (F ig u re 3 .3 ) .
B road p a tte r n s of illegitim acy in S cotland have changed
consid erab ly o v e r th e la st fifty y e a rs from one w h ere, d u rin g
th e p re -w a r p e rio d , many r u r a l a re a s te n d e d to h av e re la
tively h ig h levels to one w h ere, sin ce th e mid 1950's, large
u rb a n a re a s have g en erally had th e h ig h e st levels (Illsley an d
Gill, 1968). T he c u r r e n t d is trib u tio n , th e r e fo re , seem s to
refle c t elem ents of b o th th e old a n d th e new p a tte r n s . The
in d ex of o v erall fe rtility is in flu en ced b y each o f th e th re e
co n stitu e n t com ponents of f e r tility , b u t in th is ease it a p p e a rs
th a t sp atial v a ria tio n s in m arital fe rtility play th e dom inant
role in in flu en cin g o v erall fe rtility . F or exam ple, th e d e g ree
84
F E R T I L I T Y P A T T E R N S IN T H E MODERN WORLD
F ig. 3.3 V ariatio n s in Coale’s in d ic e s o f f e r tility , S co tlan d

1981.
of association betw een th e s e two in d ices ( r = 0.84) is much

h ig h e r th a n th e d e g re e of association betw een overall fe rtility
and each of th e o th e r two com ponents. T h u s overall fe rtility
is h ig h e r in th e w estern coast c o u n tie s, th e W estern Isles and
th e n o rth ern m o st coast co u n ties w ith low er ra te s g enerally
o c c u rrin g th ro u g h o u t th e r e s t of th e c o u n try (F ig u re 3 .3 ) .
Of th e p re v io u sly m entioned socio-economic fa c to rs , only th a t
of th e p a rtic ip a tio n o f m arried women in th e lab o u r fo rce is
highly associated with overall fe r tility , in th is case accounting
for 59 p e r cen t of th e v a ria tio n .
To conclude, while it is d ifficu lt to compare th e spatial
p a tte r n s in 1981 with th o se of 1971 d u e to ch an g in g b o u n d a r
ies and v a ry in g d ata av ailab ility , th e re a p p e a r to be ce rta in
co n sisten t fe a tu re s co n cern in g re c e n t S co ttish fe rtility p a t
te r n s . T h u s c u rre n t v a ria tio n s a re still q u ite m arked and are
by no means a p ro d u c t of v a ry in g age an d m arital s tr u c tu r e
alone. Indeed c e rta in com positional v a ria b le s play a key role
in in flu en cin g th e sp atial p a tte r n s and while th e e x ac t n a tu re
of th e causal re la tio n sh ip s cannot be p re c isely specified from
th e available a g g re g a te d a ta , it a p p e a rs th a t v a ria tio n s in
overall and m arital fe rtility at th is scale of stu d y can be
p a rtly a ttrib u te d to d iffe re n c es in female ac tiv ity p a tte r n s ,
while v ariatio n s in relig io u s denom ination e x e rt an im portant
influence on v a ry in g m arital fe rtility .
DIFFERENTIALS IN THE IRISH REPUBLIC
T here a re sev eral ways in which fe rtility p a tte r n s in th e

Republic of Irelan d a re of in te r e s t. F irs tly , fo r exam ple, th e
overall level of fe rtility is p a rtic u la rly h ig h by West European
sta n d a rd s an d th is fe a tu re can be a ttr ib u te d to a v a rie ty of
economic, social, c u ltu ra l an d dem ographic fa c to rs (Cow ard
1978, 1980; K ennedy 1973). S econdly, fe rtility is in a s ta te of
rap id ch a n g e , inv o lv in g a tr e n d to w ard s e a rlie r a n d more
u n iv e rsa l m arriage coupled w ith g re a te r co n tro l of fe rtility
within m arriag e. The pace o f th e s e ch an g es has been p a rtic u
larly m arked since 1971, in d ic a tin g th a t th e population o f th e
Irish Republic is ra p id ly moving away from th e M althusian
form of population lim itation (d elay ed m arriage and rela tiv ely
high celibacy coupled w ith little re s tric tio n of fe rtility w ithin
m arriage) tow ards more neo-M althusian form s c h a ra c te ris tic of
most E uropean n eig h b o u rs (C ow ard 1982). H ow ever, while
fe rtility h as generally declined o v e r th e last fifte en y e a rs
(th e b irth ra te d ro p p in g from 22 p e r th o u san d to 19 p e r
th o u san d betw een 1971 an d 1983), it still rem ains relativ ely
high in a West E uropean c o n te x t. T h ird ly , sp atial v a ria tio n s
in fe rtility a re q u ite m ark ed , ev en at fairly coarse levels of
ag g re g a tio n , te n d in g to re fle c t, in p a r tic u la r, d iffe re n c es in
economic developm ent and occupation s tr u c tu r e (Cow ard 1978,
1980). T his section b rie fly c o n sid e rs some of th e salient
86
T ab le 3 .7 : R e l a t i o n s h i p s b e tw e e n m a r i t a l f e r t i l i t y and h y p o t h e s i s e d
FERTILITY
e x p l a n a t o r y v a r i a b l e s , S c o t l a n d 1981
V ariab le Z e ro O r d e r C o r r e l a t i o n s
(expected r e l a t i o n s h i p w ith
VI V2 V3 V4 V5 V6
m a r i t a l f e r t i l i t y in p a re n th e s e s )
PATTERNS
VI M a rita l f e r t i l i t y 1.0 0 0 .2 3 -0 .3 4 -0 .6 9 0 .1 4 0.07
V2 R e l i g i o n (+) 1 .0 0 0 .1 9 0.0 7 -0 .4 1 -0 .6 0
V3 S o cial c la s s (-) 1 .0 0 0 .5 0 0 .2 0 -0 .5 0
V4 F em ale p a r t i c i p a t i o n ( - ) 1 .0 0 -0 .0 9 -0 .3 8
V5 O w n er-o ccu p atio n (- ) 1 .0 0 0.31
V6 Labour fo r c e in a g r i c u l t u r e 1 .0 0
IN THE
(+)
V2: P ro p o rtio n of m a r r i a g e s c e l e b r a t e d i n t h e Roman C a t h o l i c C h u rc h .

V3: P ro p o rtio n of m a r r i e d women w hose h u s b a n d f s s o c i a l c l a s s is sk ille d
non-m anual ( I l l n ) .
MODERN
V4: P ro p o rtio n of m a r r i e d women a g e d 1 6 -4 4 i n p a i d e m p lo y m en t.
V5: P ro p o rtio n of p r i v a t e h o u s e h o l d s ow ner o c c u p i e d .
V6: P ro p o rtio n of m ales in a g r i c u l t u r e .
WORLD
00
-J
c h a ra c te ris tic s of re c e n t sp atial v a ria tio n s in fe rtility a t th e

cou n ty scale of ag g re g a tio n an d th e n a tu re of th e ch an g in g
sp atial p a tte r n s o v e r th e in te r-c e n s a l decade 1971-1981.
As fo r many c o u n trie s , v a ria tio n s in th e Iris h b ir th ra te
are s tro n g ly in flu en ced b y age an d m arital s tr u c tu r e . T his is
o b se rv e d , fo r exam ple, w hen c o n tra stin g th e rela tiv e ly low
ra te (16-20 p e r th o u sa n d ) in th e more economically d e p re sse d
n o rth -w e s te rn p a r ts of th e c o u n try (tra d itio n a lly asso ciated
with eld erly age s tr u c tu r e s an d low n u p tia lity ) w ith th e gen
erally h ig h e r r a te s (23-27 p e r th o u sa n d ) of th e e a s te rn
counties aro u n d D ublin. In d e e d , th e s e two v a ria b le s
(m easured b y th e p ro p o rtio n s of th e pop ulation aged 20-34
and females m arried a t ag es 15-49) acco u n t for 71 p e r cen t o f
th e v ariatio n in 1981. T he p a rtic u la rly high ra te s of th e
e a s te rn counties aro u n d D ublin - in e x c e ss o f 23 p e r th o u
sand - e n s u re th a t n a tu ra l in c re a se is p a rtic u la rly high in
th e se a re a s a n d , coupled w ith high ra te s of in -m ig ratio n ,
place con sid erab le p r e s s u r e on th e availab ility of la n d , h o u s
in g an d re s o u rc e s in th e se a re a s . H ow ever, while age s tr u c
tu re h as a major influ en ce on th e b ir th r a te , it can be seen
th a t con sid erab le v a ria tio n s in fe rtility a re still p re s e n t a f te r
controlling fo r th is v a ria b le - a s in d ic a ted by th e overall
deg ree of v ariatio n (v = 12%) in th e T otal F e rtility Rate com
p a re d w ith th e b ir th ra te (v = 11%).
C hanging p a tte r n s of age s ta n d a rd is e d fe rtility o v e r th e
decade 1971-81 can b e b e s t illu s tra te d b y u tilisin g C oale's
ind ices in which th e se p a ra te c o n trib u tio n s to overall fe rtility
b y m arital fe rtility an d p ro p o rtio n s m arried (illegitim acy ra te s
are gen erally low o u tsid e D ublin) can be a s s e s s e d . In d e ed ,
th e p a rtic u la rly m arked c h an g es in fe rtility which have
o c c u rre d d u rin g th e decade 1971-81 h av e involved c o n tra s tin g
tre n d s in each of th e main com ponents of fe rtility . T h u s , on
a national b a s is , p ro p o rtio n s m arried in c re a se d by 8 p e r cen t
while m arital fe rtility declined b y 25 p e r cen t and th e p a r
ticu larly la rg e decline in th e la tte r was re sp o n sib le fo r th e
general decline of 18 p e r cen t in th e o verall level of age
sta n d a rd ise d fe rtility (F ig u re 3 .4 ) . G enerally sp eak in g th e se
chan g es took place th ro u g h o u t th e co u n ties and co u n ty
b o ro u g h s of th e Iris h R epublic su ch th a t th e population in all
of th e se a re a s u n d erw en t d eclines in o v e ra ll fe rtility and
m arital fe rtility , while th e population of all b u t th re e a re a s
(th o se u rb a n p opulations of D ublin, C ork an d Dun Laoghaire
p a rtic u la rly affe c ted b y co n tin u ed in -m ig ratio n o f y o u n g
single people) u n d erw en t in c re a s e s in p ro p o rtio n s m arried
(F ig u re 3 .4 ) . In te re s tin g ly , th e g re a te s t re la tiv e in c re a se s in
p ro p o rtio n s m arried o c c u rre d in th o se w e stern co u n ties which
have gen erally d isp lay ed low er th a n a v e ra g e n u p tia lity an d
th e re fo re it a p p e a rs th a t th e b ro a d reg io n al p a tte r n s of
n u p tia lity a re co n v e rg in g . T he decline in m arital fe rtility is of
p a rtic u la r in te r e s t fo r two re a s o n s. F ir s t, th e g en eral decline
of 25 p e r cent is a p a rtic u la rly larg e re d u c tio n o v e r th e
88
V. CHANGE IN FERTILITY INOICES 1971-01
V. Chon*«
FERTILITY
C D -.
E3>"
n<-
111 1»■«
PATTERNS
IN THE MODERN
DECLINE M INCR EASE IN
MARITAL FORTUITY PROPORTIONS MARRICO
10 Signifi«» « d*clii»>
F ig . 3 4 C h anges in th e in d ices of fe rtility 1971-81 in th e Republic of Ire la n d . (T he u rb an

b o ro u g h s a re c irc le d ).
WORLD
00
CO
decade an d is su re ly a p ro d u c t of th e v a rio u s social, econ

omic, c u ltu ra l and dem ographic c h a n g e s th a t o c c u rre d d u rin g
th e 1970's. Of th e se th e most im portant re g a rd in g fe rtility are
th e con tin u ed declin es in a g r ic u ltu r e , th e g row th of an u rb a n
based middle c la s s , r e tu r n m igration from B rita in , in c re a sin g
employment o p p o rtu n itie s fo r m arried women, th e gro w th o f
th e family p la n n in g m ovem ent, in c re a s in g s tre n g th o f feminism
and risin g secu larisatio n am ongst th e y o u n g e r sectio n s o f th e
population in p a rtic u la r. T he second point of in te r e s t is th a t
the declines in m arital fe rtility have been q u ite la rg e
th ro u g h o u t th e whole c o u n try an d w ere b y no means confined
to th e p rin cip le u rb a n a re a s (F ig u re 3 .4 ) . T his s u g g e s ts th a t
th e scale of social chan g e was also widely sp re a d and in th is
con tex t th e movement of r e tu r n m ig ran ts to many of th e more
ru ra l p a r ts of Ire la n d coupled w ith g overnm ent policy aimed
at fo ste rin g economic developm ent and in d u s tria l grow th
th ro u g h o u t th e whole c o u n try seem p a rtic u la rly a p p ro p ria te in
attem pting to u n d e rs ta n d th e c h a n g in g a ttitu d e s to family
form ation an d fe rtility . T he d eclines in o v erall fe rtility have
been p a rtic u la rly m arked in th e main u rb a n a re a s (d u e to
larg e re d u c tio n s in m arital fe rtility coupled with small o r no
in c re a se s in p ro p o rtio n s m a rrie d ), while th e re d u c tio n s
am ongst th e p o pulations of th e e a s te rn co u n ties have g e n e r
ally been g re a te r th a n th o se of th e w estern co u n tie s. However
th e fact th a t overall fe rtility h a s d eclined th ro u g h o u t th e
whole co u n try (a t th is scale of s tu d y ) rem ains th e dom inant
c h a ra c te ris tic of ch a n g in g fe rtility p a tte r n s o v e r th e most
rec e n t in te r-c e n s a l decade.
FAMILY SIZE IN NORTHERN IRELAND
Similar to th e Iris h R ep u b lic, m arked sp a tia l v a ria tio n s in

fe rtility a re ev id en t in N o rth ern Ire la n d . Compton (1978a,
1978b), for exam ple, h as exam ined th e d etailed p a tte r n s
aro u n d 1971 and shows th a t th e d is trib u tio n of th e population
by relig io u s denom ination, along w ith socio-econom ic and
dem ographic fa c to rs , play im portant ro les in a cco u n tin g for
th e se v a ria tio n s. While q u e stio n s re la tin g to family size w ere
om itted from th e 1981 c e n s u s, a fe rtility s u rv e y u n d e rta k e n
th ro u g h o u t N o rth ern Ire la n d in 1983, b a sed on a sample of
3000 e v e r-m a rrie d women an d th e ir p a r t n e r s , allows more
rec e n t tr e n d s to be in v e s tig a te d . Some of th e prelim inary
re s u lts of th e s u rv e y a re re c o rd e d in T able 3.8 an d in th is
case five se p a ra te a re a s a re given in relation to av e ra g e
com pleted family size. It is a p p a re n t th a t th e d iffe re n c es in
family size betw een Roman C atholics an d non-Rom an C atholics
a re still v e ry d istin c tiv e an d fo r b o th o f th e se g ro u p in g s
th e re is a q u ite m arked sp atial g ra d ie n t of fe rtility . For
exam ple, a v erag e family sizes a re g en erally sm allest am ongst
th e population living bey o n d th e immediate B elfast s u b u r b s ,
90
T a b le 3 . 8 : V a r i a t i o n s i n f a m i l y s i z e i n N o r t h e r n I r e l a n d by
a r e a and r e l i g i o n , 1983. ( E v e r - m a r r i e d women ag ed 4 5 -5 9 )
Roman Non-Roman
Area C ath o lic C ath o lic
B elfast 4 .0 2 .4
B e l f a s t S uburbs 3 .7 2 .6
I n n e r Zone: F r i n g e B e l f a s t 3 .3 2 .2
I n t e r m e d i a t e Zone 5 .2 2 .7
O u ter Zone: West o f t h e Bann 5 .4 3 .2
S o u rc e : N o r t h e r n I r e l a n d F e r t i l i t y S u r v e y , 1983.
somewhat g re a te r in th e in term ed iate frin g e a re a s and p a r

ticu larly la rg e am ongst th e more ru ra l p o p u lations in the
w estern h alf of th e p ro v in c e . F u r th e r a n aly sis will be able to
confirm th e e x te n t to which th is g ra d ie n t is a p ro d u c t of
certain compositional v a ria b le s such as social c la s s , e d u c atio n ,
housing and female a c tiv ity , o r w h eth er it is in flu en ced by
o th e r fa c to rs such as th e diffu sio n of th e small family ideal
from th e more developed e a st to th e le ss developed w est. The
example of N o rth ern Ire la n d th e re fo re p ro v id es a su itab le
illu stra tio n of m arked v a ria tio n s in fe rtility in (re lativ ely
small) developed a re a s and th a t th e se a re ev id e n t ev en at
fairly co arse levels of a g g re g a tio n .
CONCLUSION
The c h a p te r h as em phasised some o f th e c h a ra c te ris tic s of

contem porary fe rtility p a tte r n s fo r a v a rie ty of d iffe re n t scale
levels an d from th e exam ples cited h e re it a p p e a rs th a t v a ri
ations in fe rtility a re most ev id en t to w ard s th e extrem es -
both micro and macro - of th e scale continuum . Given th e
relativ e neglect of fe rtility stu d ie s b y g e o g ra p h e rs, fu tu re
re se a rc h will hopefully c o n trib u te to th e co n tin u ed docum en
tation and m onitoring of sp atial fe rtility p a tte r n s th ro u g h o u t
th e world at a v a rie ty of sc a le s, as well a s c o n trib u tin g to
methodological developm ents b y , fo r exam ple, exam ining a
w ider ran g e of fe rtility in flu en cin g v a ria b le s, m aking g re a te r
use of in d iv id u al d ata as well as a s s e s s in g th e role of g en eral
models of fe rtility change an d d ecline.
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94
C h ap ter Four
MORTALITY PATTERNS IN THE MODERN WORLD
P. H. C urson
GEOGRAPHY AND MORTALITY
Population G eography - M ortality Mislaid

The an aly sis oT m ortality rem ains th e Cinderella su b je ct of
population g e o g rap h y . L arg ely , population g e o g ra p h e rs have
tu rn e d th e ir back on m ortality stu d ie s an d few today include
it as one of th e ir major in te r e s ts . Most g e o g ra p h e rs in te re s te d
in th e stu d y of m ortality have e ith e r moved laterally into
medical g eo g rap h y o r , like th e a u th o r, have tak en refu g e
within h isto rical dem ography o r population s tu d ie s . It is
consequently somewhat d ifficu lt to a d d re s s th e su b je c t of
m ortality p a tte r n s in th e m odern w orld in a volume desig n ed
to d isc u ss p ro g re s s in population g eo g rap h y when v e ry little
work on m ortality h a s been c a rrie d out by population geo
g ra p h e rs . R a th e r, th e sp atial stu d y of m ortality rem ains a
cen tral concern of medical g eo g rap h y a n d , while a s tro n g
th eo retical case can be made fo r re g a rd in g medical geog rap h y
as an in te g ra l p a r t of population g e o g ra p h y , th e c u rre n t
s ta tu s enjoyed by medical g eo g rap h y is clearly th a t of a
viable an d activ e su b -d isc ip lin e in its own rig h t (Jo n e s, 1984,
173). T he p a u c ity of s tu d ie s of m ortality by population geo
g ra p h e rs is p a rtly due to th e ir p reo ccu p atio n w ith th e more
trad itio n al geographical a s p e c ts , su c h as th e re la tio n sh ip s
betw een population d is trib u tio n an d environm ent fa c to rs o r
betw een total population n u m b ers an d human re s o u rc e s .
Specifically th e re h a s b een a c o n cen tratio n on th e d escrip tio n
and an aly sis of c o u n try , regional and in te rn a tio n a l population
p a tte r n s , usually in term s of th e to ta lity o f population fea
tu re s w ith g en eral ex p lan atio n s so u g h t from th e b ro a d e st
ag g re g a tiv e d a ta . Only v e ry ra re ly have population geo
g ra p h e rs concern ed them selves w ith th e system atic stu d y of
p a rtic u la r c h a ra c te ris tic s su ch as fe rtility an d m o rtality , and
ra re ly h as th e re been any co n certed e ffo rt to in v e stig a te
w ell-defined causal h y p o th e se s. Almost all th e te x ts on th e
subject to a p p e a r b efo re 1970 w ere heavily p a tte rn -o r ie n te d in
ap p ro ach , g iv in g e x te n siv e cov erag e to th e sp atial d is tr i-
M O RTALITY P A T T E R N S IN T H E MODERN WORLD
bution of p o p u latio n , in clu d in g dem o g rap hic, socio-economic

and eth n ic fa c to rs , m ig ratio n , an d th e p o p u la tio n -re so u rc e s
q u e stio n , b u t w ith v e ry little a tte n tio n to fe rtility an d mor
ta lity p e r se . From th e 1970s, d e sp ite a g e n e ra l sw ing
tow ard s a more rig o ro u s p ro c e s s-o rie n te d ap p ro ach in geo
gra p h y g e n e ra lly , an d th e eloquent coun sel of some p ra c
titio n e rs such as Woods (1979) an d Jo n e s (1981) fo r a more
single-m inded p u rs u it of causal ex p lan atio n s p a rtic u la rly in
th e stu d y of fe rtility an d m o rtality , population g e o g ra p h e rs
have co n tin u ed to be o ccupied with 'm a tte rs of d is trib u tio n ,
with id e n tify in g population ty p e s an d especially w ith mi
g ra tio n __ ' (Woods, 1984, 44).
T he lack of a tte n tio n given to m ortality also stem s from
th e way in which g eo g rap h y in g en eral and population geo
g ra p h y in p a rtic u la r h av e developed in th e post-1960 p erio d .
In c re a sin g specialisation an d fragm entation have seen th e
em ergence of viable s u b -a re a s of sp ecialisation su ch as
medical g eo g rap h y and u rb a n social g e o g ra p h y , so th a t C larke
could s u g g e s t, ev en as early a s 1972, th a t many population
g e o g ra p h e rs ex clu d ed any d etailed m icro -analysis o f m ortality
p a tte rn s from th e ir ra n g e of in te r e s ts fo r fe a r of en c ro a ch in g
upon th e domain of medical g eo g rap h y (C la rk e , 1972, 126).
Given such a ttitu d e s , th e em ergence of h isto rical demo
g ra p h y , with its co n cern fo r re c o n s tru c tin g p a st m ortality
p a tte r n s , an d epidem iology, w ith its b ro ad in te re s t in mor
tality a n d d isease d is trib u tio n s , h as f u r th e r e ro d e d a s u b
sta n tia l p a r t of population g e o g ra p h y 's tra d itio n a l field of
in te r e s t. Only in re c e n t y e a r s , mainly th ro u g h th e work o f
Woods an d Jo n e s, h as th e r e been any clarion call fo r a re co g
nition of th e role population g eo g ra p h y can play in th e
an aly sis of m ortality p a tte r n s . G en erally , h o w ev er, su ch a
call has gone u n h e e d e d , an d b y th e 1980s population geo
grap h y had fo r many come to re p r e s e n t th e sp atial s tu d y of
m igration, population r e d is trib u tio n , and b ro a d a g g re g a tiv e
an aly ses of sp a tia l d is trib u tio n s . In 1984 C la rk e , th e
Chairman of th e In te rn a tio n a l G eographical U nion's Commission
on Population G eo g rap h y , seems to have acc ep ted th e fact
th a t m ortality (an d fe rtility an d population c h a ra c te ris tic s ) no
lon g er com prised a sig n ifican t p a r t of p o pulation g e o g ra p h y .
S peculating on th e d irectio n th e discipline might ta k e in th e
n e x t few y e a rs , h e a rg u e d th a t m igration (p a rtic u la rly p o p u
lation re d is trib u tio n , la b o u r m ovem ent, o u tm ig ratio n , tr a n s
m igration, an d re fu g e e m ovem ent), d e c e n tra lisa tio n , u r b a n
isation and d is a s te rs could re p r e s e n t th e a re a s o f fu tu re
concern (C la rk e , 1984, 8 -9 ).
Medical G eography - M ortality R etriev ed

The end re s u lt of th e above was t h a t, b y th e 1970s, most of
th e su b sta n tiv e work on m ortality w ithin g eo g rap h y was b ein g
u n d e rta k e n b y medical g e o g ra p h e rs an d h isto ric al demo
96
M O R TA L IT Y P A T T E R N S IN T H E MODERN WORLD
g ra p h e rs . In many cases such work h a s p u rs u e d w ith g re at

v ig o u r an d evangelical zeal th e b ro ad them e o f o b se rv in g ,
docum enting, and an aly sin g sp atial v a ria tio n s in hum an mor
ta lity an d h ealth p a tte r n s and th e ir environm ental rela tio n
sh ip s. B ro ad ly , medical g e o g ra p h e rs h av e claimed th a t th e
identification of th e sp atial c o n to u rs o f m ortality a n d its
p h y sic a l, social an d economic c o rre la te s at v a ry in g levels o f
scale may ultim ately be p ro d u c tiv e o f h y p o th e se s leading to
causal ex p la n a tio n s. Some of th e problem s asso ciated w ith th is
claim an d with th e g eo g rap h ic a p p ro ach to m ortality will be
considered la te r in th is c h a p te r , b u t fo r th e moment it may
be ap p o site to m ention ju s t o n e . One of th e iro n ie s of medical
geo graphy is th a t its p rim a ry in te r e s t in th e o c c u rre n c e ,
d istrib u tio n an d d eterm in an ts of h ealth in human populations
has often b een p u rs u e d th ro u g h th e a n aly sis of m ortality
p a tte r n s . In th e ab sen ce of d etailed re c o rd s of m orbidity,
medical g e o g ra p h e rs have o fte n been fo rced to rely on sp atial
p a tte rn s of m ortality ra te s b y specific cau se as a s u rro g a te
in d icato r of geographic v a ria tio n s in ill-h e a lth . T he problem
is , of c o u rse , th a t d eath ra te s may rev eal re lativ ely little
about illn ess p a tte r n s in a p o p u latio n , an d p e rh a p s even le ss
about th e role of medical in te rv e n tio n . T he q u e stio n rem ains
w hether th e re sid e n tia l d is trib u tio n of people who died from
ischaem ic h e a rt d isease in 1985 really te lls u s a n y th in g about
the spatial d istrib u tio n of th o se who s u ffe r from th e disease
b u t do not n ec e ssa rily die from i t . It would seem to be a
weak b ase upon which to c o n s tru c t a geographical in v e s ti
gation of illn e ss b e h a v io u r an d fo r any sp atial an a ly sis o f th e
geography of ris k . While medical g eo g raphy h a s made a
su b sta n tia l c o n trib u tio n to th e stu d y o f th e sp a tia l p a tte r n s of
m ortality, medical g e o g ra p h e rs have s till been r a th e r parochial
in th e ir ap p ro ach to stu d y in g m o rtality , and th e main th r u s t
of th e ir work h a s been d ire c te d to w ard s th e p o rtra y a l and
analysis of th e sp atial v a ria tio n s of c a u se -sp e c ific m ortality
and 'th e se a rc h fo r environm ental and socio-economic con
ditions which may be causally re la te d to th e se v a ria tio n s'
(Howe and P h illip s, 1983, 33 ). To a la rg e e x te n t th e y have
avoided any detailed co n sid eratio n of d iffe re n tia l m o rtality ,
p artic u la rly social c la ss and occupational v a ria tio n s, as well as
eth n ic an d racial d iffe re n c e s. T he same is tr u e of s tu d ie s of
the m ortality ex p erien ce of p a rtic u la r social and dem ographic
g ro u p s, su ch as teen ag e m ales, ag ed p e n s io n e rs , e t c . , as
well as stu d ie s of a re a lly -b a s e d social communities su c h as
coal-m ining settlem en ts. Even th e stu d y of in fa n t an d p e ri
natal m ortality rem ains an u n d e rn o u rish e d field of geographic
en d eav o u r.
THE SOCIAL INEQUALITY OF DEATH

Inequality in th e face of d eath rem ains one o f th e most d is
tin c tiv e and p e rs is tin g fe a tu re s o f co n tem porary m ortality
97
M O RTALITY P A T T E R N S IN T H E MODERN WORLD
p a tte rn s th ro u g h o u t th e w orld. In eq u ality in life and d eath

are u n d o u b ted ly re la te d , and in many cases re fle c t basic
socio-economic divisio n s w ithin so ciety . A c e n tra l p r e
occupation w ithin g eo g rap h y h as been th e identificatio n of th e
spatial dim ensions of th is in e q u a lity , even th o u g h few geo
g ra p h e rs have in q u ire d in to th e u n d e rly in g c au ses of su ch
p a tte r n s . In d eed , it rem ains som ething of an iro n y , as Jones
p oin ts o u t, th a t many g e o g ra p h e rs fail to a p p re c ia te fully th a t
m ortality p a tte r n s a re p e rh a p s as well u n d e rsto o d th ro u g h th e
sp atial an aly sis of social g ro u p s as th ro u g h b a sic e n v iro n
mental in flu en ces (Jo n e s, 1981, 52 ). T h is section atte m p ts to
tra c e some of th e more im p o rtan t social d iffe re n tia ls in con
tem porary m ortality p a tte r n s .
Rich Man, Poor M a n ... Social C lass D ifferen tials

T h e ex isten ce of sig n ific a n t v a ria tio n s in m ortality levels
among v ario u s social, economic an d e th n ic g ro u p s h as been
rep eated ly d em o n strated b o th in develo p ing and developed
c o u n trie s. In b ro ad te rm s, m ortality would seem to v a ry
in v e rse ly w ith social class o r socio-economic s ta tu s . Such a
circum stance would seem p e rfe c tly u n d e rs ta n d a b le , given th a t
a h ig h social s ta tu s is normally asso ciated w ith b e tte r living
and w orking co n d itio n s, b e tte r n u tritio n , m aternal s ta tu s and
'm o th e rin g ', and a g re a te r know ledge of and se n sitiv ity to
h e a lth -c a re facilities an d p re v e n tiv e medicine (fa c to rs which
affect in d iv id u a ls ), as well as b e tte r sa n ita tio n , public health
and avoidance of environm ental h a z a rd s (w hich affect a re a s ).
Poor h ealth s ta tu s (o ften lead in g to p rem atu re d e a th ) is
consequently a d eterm in an t as well as an outcome of socio
economic co n d itio n s. T he d iffe rin g life sty le s of social g ro u p s
a re also m atched b y im p o rtan t d iffe re n c es in health b e h a v
io u r. Most of th e ev idence on social c lass d iffere n ces in
m ortality comes from s tu d ie s of developed c o u n trie s , p a rtic u
larly B ritain an d th e U nited S tates of America. In B ritain
su ch v ariatio n s a re well docum ented (see B la x te r, 1976;
B ro th e rsto n , 1976; OPCS, 1978; Office of H ealth Economics,
1979) and stro n g ly su g g e s t th a t social c la ss d iffe re n c es are
not re s tric te d to m ortality b u t c h a ra c te ris e th e whole 'gam ut
o f p h y sical an d social a ttr ib u te s upon which estim ates are
made of normal h e a lth developm ent' (B ro th e rs to n , 1976, 74).
T h ere a r e , fo r exam ple, p e rs is tin g social class d iffe re n c es in
'm o th e rin g ', b irth w e ig h ts , h e ig h ts and w eights of school
c h ild re n , e y e s ig h t, d en tal h e a lth , n u tr itio n , sm oking b e h a v
io u r, chronic an d a c u te sic k n e ss p a tte r n s , p e rso n al hygiene
and com prehension an d u tilisatio n of h e a lth -c a re fac ilitie s. At
the level o f m ortality su c h v a ria tio n s can b e illu s tra te d via
sta n d a rd ise d m ortality ra te s b y social cla ss g ro u p s in E ngland
and Wales (T able 4 .1 ) . T h is m aterial shows a s tro n g social
class g ra d ie n t from C lass I to V an d in ad dition su g g e sts
th a t, not only h as th is p a tte rn p e rs is te d o v e r tim e, b u t also
98
th a t th e re h a s o c c u rre d a w idening of cla ss d iffe re n c e s,

ra th e r th a n a n arro w in g , o v e r th e la st 50 y e a r s , in p a rtic u
la r , th o se in th e u n sk illed g ro u p clearly sta n d out a s s u f fe r
in g con sid erab le d isa d v a n ta g e in term s of h e a lth and prem a
tu r e d e a th . F ig u re 4 .1 a d ap ted from th e OPCS R eport of
Occupational M ortality, f u r th e r h ig h lig h ts th e m ortality g ra d i
en t betw een th e v a rio u s social g ro u p s in B rita in , b o th for
w orking-age a d u lts and fo r ch ild re n ag ed from one to fo u r
teen y e a rs . Most major c au ses of d e a th , su ch a s c irc u la to ry
d ise a se s, neoplasm s, an d re s p ira to ry d is o rd e rs , also show
th is social class g ra d ie n t, p a rtic u la rly w hen males only a re
co n sid ered . The m agnitude of su c h v a ria tio n s rem ains s tr ik
in g , an d q u e stio n s th e b ro a d assum ption th a t all g ro u p s o f
society have p a rtic ip a te d equally in th e overall decline o f
m ortality th a t h as c h a ra c te ris e d developed societies o v e r th e
last 80 o r so y e a rs . In a d d itio n , it a rg u e s s tro n g ly fo r a
geography th a t a p p re c ia te s th e sp atial d istrib u tio n o f social
classes as a prim e d eterm in an t of th e sp atial p a tte r n s of
m o rtality .
Some of th e class d iffe re n c e s in m ortality are u n
doubtedly due to th e p u rs u it of o ccu p atio ns which m ay, by
th e ir v e ry n a tu r e , be more h a z a rd o u s in term s o f location and
work ro u tin e s and e x p o su re to v a rio u s environm ental th r e a ts ,
inclu d in g th e g re a te r likelihood of a c c id e n ts a n d le ss job
sec u rity and job sa tisfa c tio n , a s well as r e s tric te d acce ss to
health c a re . F ig u re 4.2 show s m ortality r a te s fo r A u stralian
males in a s e rie s of b ro ad occupational c a te g o rie s. Males
employed in p ro fe ssio n a l, e x e c u tiv e , a d m in istrativ e an d mana
gerial o ccupations had a m ortality e x p e rien ce in 1969-73
su b stan tially below th e national a v e ra g e (100), as did males
engaged in a g ric u ltu ra l a c tiv itie s. Both th e se g ro u p s enjoyed
a level of m ortality of ab o u t h alf th a t of th e most d is
adv an tag ed occupational g ro u p (m in e rs, q u arry m e n and
rela te d w o rk e rs). While th e connection betw een ill h e a lth ,
m ortality an d occupation is o ften s tro n g an d d ire c t, it is
larg ely overshadow ed by o th e r fa c to rs re la te d to occu p atio n ,
such a s incom e, life -sty le an d place of re sid e n c e , and
em braces su ch th in g s a s p o ssessio n of h ousehold am enities,
overcro w d in g , p erso n al h e a lth b e h a v io u r, d ie t, sm oking,
alcohol consum ption, an d know ledge an d u se of h e a lth -c a re
facilities. S u rv e y s of social c la ss v a ria tio n s in h e alth s ta tu s
and c are co n sisten tly h ig h lig h t how social c lass d iffe re n c es
perm eate all levels of h ealth and b e h a v io u r. Evidence for
chronic illn ess an d c ig a re tte sm oking clearly rev e als a social
class g ra d ie n t. It h as also been re p e a te d ly dem o n strated th a t
people in th e lower social c la sse s a re much le ss likely to
resp o n d to h ealth ed ucation p ro g ram s an d to a tte n d a n te n a ta l,
child h ealth an d d en tal c lin ic s, an d a re le ss likely to seek
medical treatm en t o r avail th e ir c h ild re n o f a v a rie ty of
p re v e n tiv e m easures su ch as imm unisation a g a in st th e more
common infectio ns like d ip h th e ria , polio an d m easles. Ineq u al-
99
M ORTALITY P A T T E R N S IN T H E MODERN WORLD
C H IL D R EN 1-14 Y E A R S A O ULTS 16-64 Y E A R S
I II HIN IH M IV V I II MIN DM IV V
D IS E A S E S O F
R E S P IR A T O R Y S Y S T E M
Mole
| female
I II IHN I!IM IV V
M A LIG N A N T N E O P L A S M S D IS E A S E S OF
C IRCU LATO RY S Y ST E M
II IHN HIM IV
Fig. 4.1 S ta n d a rd ise d m ortality ra te s b y social c la ss fo r age

g ro u p s and selected cause of d e a th , E ngland and
Wales, 1970-72. S ource: OPCS O ccupational Mor
ta lity , 1970-72 (1978).
itie s of u se a re com pounded by in e q u a litie s of a c c e ss, an d a

num ber of stu d ie s have vividly rev ealed how sp atial ir r e g u
la ritie s in th e h e a lth -c a re n e t can lead to a sp atial m aldis
trib u tio n in th e p ro v isio n of s e rv ic e s which may serio u sly
disad v an tag e poor people in lo w er-class n eig h bourhoods
(Shannon an d D ev er, 1974; Stim son, 1982).
Im portant social class v a ria tio n s have also been docu
mented in stu d ie s o f in fa n t an d p e rin a ta l m o rtality , and again
th e re is consid erab le ev idence to s u g g e s t th a t, d e sp ite a
su b sta n tia l fall in in fa n t m ortality ra te s in developed c o u n trie s
ov er th e la st 40 y e a r s , th e d ifferen ce betw een th e social
classes h as rem ained a s p e r s is te n t as e v e r. Table 4.2 illu s
tr a te s th e dram atic social class g ra d ie n t in in fa n t m ortality
ra te s th a t p re v a ils in E ngland an d Wales. T he w ives o f men in
lo w -sta tu s o ccupations w ere ab o u t tw ice as likely to lose th e ir
b abies in th e ir f ir s t y e a r o f life as w ere th o se in C lass I.
Similar d isp a ritie s p re v a il w ith re s p e c t to p e rin a ta l, neonatal
and postn eo n atal m ortality. It would also a p p e a r th a t some
th in g of a social class g ra d ie n t e x is ts in b irth w eig h t d a ta as
well, p a rtic u la rly fo r th e lig h te s t g ro u p of bab ies (u n d e r 1500
gram s) who s u ffe r tw o -th ird s of th e p e rin a ta l m ortality in th e
100
T a b le 4 . 1 : S t a n d a r d i s e d M o r t a l i t y R a t i o s by S o c i a l C l a s s , m ale s aged 15-64
y e a r s England and Wales 1921-72
S o c i a l C l a s s Groups*
MORTALITY
I II II IN III IIIM IV V R a t i o I:V
1921-23* 82 94 95 101 125 1 .5 2

1930-33* 90 94 97 102 111 1.2 3
1949-53 86 92 101 104 118 1.37
1959-63 76 81 100 103 143 1.8 8
PATTERNS
1970-72 77 81 99 104 106 114 137 1.7 8
20-64 y e a r s
* I P r o f e s s io n a l o c c u p a tio n s ( e .g . la w y e rs, p h y s ic ia n s )
II M a n a g e r i a l and lo w er p r o f e s s i o n a l g r o u p s ( e . g . t e a c h e r s , n u r s e s ,
m a n a g e rs , f a r m e r s )
IN THE MODERN
I I I S k i l l e d o c c u p a t i o n s ( e . g . s e e 1IIN and IIIM )
I I I N Mon-manual s k i l l e d o c c u p a t i o n s ( e . g . c l e r i c a l w o r k e r s , shop
assistan ts)
IIIM Manual s k i l l e d o c c u p a t i o n s ( e . g . e n g i n e e r i n g c r a f t s m e n , m i n e r s )
IV S e m i - s k i l l e d o c c u p a t i o n s ( e . g . a g r i c u l t u r a l w o r k e r s , postm an)
V U n sk ille d o ccu p atio n s ( e .g . p o r t e r s , la b o u re rs )
S o u rc e : O c c u p a t i o n a l M o r t a l i t y 1 97 0 -72 , 1978; S o c i a l T re n d s 6 , 19 75 :26 .
WORLD
M O R T A L IT Y P A T T E R N S IN T H E MODERN WORLD
Professionol technical
A d m in istrative .executive
and managerial
Clericol workers
So les workers
Form ers .fisherm en

hunters, timbercutters etc
M iners , quarrymen etc
Transport .communication
workers
Croftsmen .production process
workers , lobourers
Se rvice , sport and
recreation workers
M em bers of orm ed services
0 20 40 60 80 100 J2 0 »40 160
S T A N D A R D IS E D M O R T A L IT Y RATIO
F ig. 4 .2 S ta n d a rd is e d m o rtality r a tio s , A u stra lia n m ales,

occu p atio n al g ro u p s . S o u rc e : P opulation R e p o rt, 5,
1981, A u s tra lia n C ouncil on P o p u latio n a n d E th n ic
A ffa irs.
U nited Kingdom (O ffice o f H ealth Econom ics, 1979, 4 ) , ev en

th o u g h th e p a tte r n is le s s c le a r th a n th a t fo r in fa n t m or
ta lity . In all c a s e s , th e r a te s fo r C la sse s IV a n d V w ere
sig n ific a n tly h ig h e r th a n th o s e o f C la sse s I a n d II. It would
a p p e a r th a t th e s e b ro a d d iffe re n c e s in m o rta lity e x p e rie n c e
also h av e a sig n ific a n t s p a tia l e x p r e s s io n , a s can b e see n in
F ig u re 4 .3 , w hich e x p lo re s th e sp a tia l p a tte r n o f a v e ra g e
in fa n t a n d p e rin a ta l m o rtality r a te s fo r 1979-81 in E ngland
a n d Wales a s well a s th e re la tio n s h ip b e tw e en th e in fa n t and
p e rin a ta l m o rtality e x p e rie n c e o f th e two low est social g ro u p s
com pared to th e two h ig h e s t.
In d e v e lo p in g c o u n tr ie s , a lth o u g h it is ex trem ely d iffic u lt
to o b tain re lia b le co m p arativ e d a ta , it is w idely re c o g n ise d
th a t social c la ss d iffe re n tia ls in m o rta lity , p a r tic u la rly in fa n t
m ortality r a t e s , a re e v e n g r e a te r th a n th o s e re c o rd e d fo r
d ev elo p ed n a tio n s . A n u m b er o f s tu d ie s h a v e in d ic a te d a
s tro n g asso ciatio n to e x is t b etw een m o th e rs' e d u c atio n a n d th e
level o f in fa n t a n d c h ild m o rta lity , a s well as a b ro a d socio
economic g ra d ie n t in m o rtality le v e ls (s e e B r a s s , 1980;
Edm onston a n d A n d e s, 1983; H aines a n d A v e ry , 1982;
H o b craft e t a l . , 1984). L evel o f incom e, fo r w hich v e r y little
d a ta a re a v a ila b le , u n d o u b te d ly e x e rc is e s an im p o rta n t e ffe c t
on m o rta lity , e sp e c ia lly in fa n t a n d ch ild m o rta lity . A p a rt from
h a v in g an o b v io u s e ffe c t on h o u s in g , d ie t a n d s a n ita tio n , it
also o p en s u p a w ide r a n g e of h e a lth a n d m edical c a re
o p tio n s , r a n g in g from sim p le, e v e ry d a y a s p e c ts o f h e a lth an d
h y g ie n e , s u c h a s p e rs o n a l a n d h o u se h o ld c le a n lin e ss an d
102
INFANT M ORTALITY
Roie per 1000

•it* biriht
■ 127-135
R3 it8•(26
S 3 10.9 - 11.7
S 10.0-10.8
Averoge Rote 1979-81
P E R IN A T A L M O RTALITY
P ole per 0 0 0
toKJ» birit»»
■ 158-168
E 3 14 7 -15 7 147-157
S3 136-146
fc a 12 5-135 E3 »25-135
□ I M - »2.4
a ) Averoge Rote 1979-81 (6) Unskilled/Partly S k ille d Rate as

Percent of Professional/Intermediate Rate
9 iniicot«'. roiet Cosid or 1979 -80 only
Fig. 4.3 In fan t and p e rin a ta l m ortality by Regional Health

D istric ts and social c la s s , E ngland an d Wales,
1979-81. S ource: D ata from OPCS M onitors, In fan t
and P erin atal M ortality 1979-81.
sterilisatio n of food u te n s ils , to more so p h istic a te d m easu res,

such as inoculation and th e ab ility to locate a n d access
modern h ealth c a re . H obcraft e t a l . , in docum enting some of
th e socio-economic d iffe re n tia ls in child m ortality o v e r a wide
ran g e of c o u n trie s , s tr e s s th e im portance o f b o th m others'
and fa th e rs ' educational level an d f a th e rs ' occupation and
m others' w ork s ta tu s (all s u rro g a te s o f household income
le v e ls). T hey also d em o n strate th e s u b s ta n tia l sp atial v a ri
ations th a t ex ist in in fa n t and child m ortality a c ro ss th e
developing world a n d , in p a rtic u la r, th e in eq u a litie s th a t
exist w ithin p a rtic u la r c o u n trie s . In fa n t a n d child m ortality
are influenced b y th e u n eq u al availability of h e alth and
medical facilities a n d , in p a rtic u la r, th e regional d isp a ritie s
th a t e x ist betw een u rb a n an d r u r a l a re a s . H obcraft e t a l. 's
data dram atically illu s tra te th e wide d iffe re n c e s th a t e x ist
betw een th e health of ch ild re n b elonging to u rb a n 'elite '
populations com pared w ith th o se of th e tra d itio n a l r u ra l
103
MORTALITY
104
T a b le 4 . 2 : I n f a n t D eath R a t e s by S o c i a l C l a s s E ngland and Wales Average
PATTERNS
1979-81. (A verage a n n u a l r a t e s p e r 1000 l i v e b i r t h s )
S o c i a l C£ass P e rin atal* N e o n a ta l P o stn e o n atal In fa n t M o rtality

Group
IN THE MODERN
I 9 .4 5.6 3 .2 8 .8
II 10.9 6 .2 2 .9 9 .0
III 12.7 6 .9 3 .6 10.5
IV 14.9 8 .5 4.9 13.5
V 17.1 9 .7 7.1 16.8
* p e r 1000 t o t a l b i r t h s .
See f o o t n o t e t o T a b le 4 .1 f o r s o c i a l c l a s s d e f i n i t i o n s .
WORLD
S o u rc e : C a l c u l a t e d from OPCS M o n i to r s I n f a n t and P e r i n a t a l M o r t a l i t y , 1979,
1980, 1981.
M O R TA LITY P A T T E R N S IN T H E MODERN WORLD
population. On th e th re e m easures exam ined (n e o n a ta l, p o s t-

neonatal and child m o rta lity ), th e a u th o rs found th e d iffe r
ence betw een th e se two b ro a d so cio -sp atial g ro u p in g s to v a ry
from a s much as 20 tim es fo r child m o rtality , e ig h t tim es fo r
neonatal, an d six tim es fo r p o stn eo n atal m ortality (H o b craft e t
a l ., 1984, 222-223).
O u tsid ers - Racial an d E thnic V ariations

Some of th e most sig n ifican t d iffe re n c e s in m ortality p a tte r n s
in developed c o u n trie s to d ay a re th o se betw een racial and
eth n ic m inorities an d th e m ajority p o p u latio n . Data on su ch
asp ects a re o ften lim ited, b u t those which a re available in d i
cate th a t m ortality le v e ls, p a rtic u la rly childhood m o rtality ,
may be of th e same o rd e r a s found in many c o u n trie s in th e
tran sitio n a l sta g e of developm ent. A boriginals in A u stra lia ,
N egroes an d H ispanics in th e USA, A sians an d West In dians
in B rita in , and Maoris in New Zealand all s u ffe r from a d is
ad v an tag ed h e a lth s ta tu s o ften lead in g to p re m a tu re d e a th ,
d esp ite dram atic im provem ents in g en eral m ortality r a te s in
th e la st 25 y e a rs . In A u stra lia , fo r exam ple, A boriginal in fan t
m ortality ra te s rem ain a t least th re e tim es g re a te r th a n th e
white A ustralian p o p u latio n , a n d fo r p a r ts of th e c o u n try th e
differen ce may be a s g re a t as five tim es. In 1980 th e A borigi
nal in fan t m ortality ra te was estim ated to 32.7 com pared with
a non-A boriginal ra te of only 10.2 (T hom son, 1982, 3 ).
O utside th e major cities A boriginals seem p a rtic u la rly d is
ad v an tag ed . A 1980-81 stu d y of p e rin a ta l outcome among ru ra l
A boriginals in NSW rev e a le d some o f th e dim ensions o f th is
health in e q u a lity . Males' life e x p ectan cy at b irth was e s ti
mated to be only 48-49, w ith th a t o f females b ein g only six to
seven y e a rs b e tte r . T he stillb o rn an d n eonatal m ortality ra te s
were double th o se of th e to tal NSW p o p u la tio n , an d the
Aboriginal h o sp italisatio n ra te two and one h a lf tim es as high
as th e non-A boriginal r a te . In a d d itio n , th e p e rc e n ta g e of
low -birthw eight b ab ies was double th e n o n-A boriginal ra te
an d , in approxim ately 30 p e rc e n t o f all co n fin em en ts, th e
m other was aged u n d e r 20 y e a r s , com pared w ith about eig h t
p e rc e n t of all b ir th s in th e S ta te . F o u rtee n p e rc e n t o f
Aboriginal m others w ere of high p a rity (fo u r o r more
c h ild r e n ) , com pared w ith only fo u r p e r cen t o f non-A boriginal
m others (Ju lien n e e t a l. , 1983). C le a rly , A boriginal health
p a tte rn s a re d istin c tiv e ly d iffe re n t from th e non-A boriginal
secto r of A u stra lia 's p o p u latio n . T he fa c to rs re sp o n sib le for
such in eq u ality a re com plex, b u t A boriginals a re ca u g h t up in
a vicious cycle of poor h e a lth , u n d e rn u tritio n , low educational
lev e ls, p o v e rty , unem ploym ent, a n d in a d e q u a te an d o v e r
crowded h o u sin g w ith o fte n poor sa n ita tio n . In epidemologie
te rm s, w hat d iffe re n tia te s A boriginals from n o n -A boriginals
today is th e ir h ig h level of in fectio u s d isease (p a rtic u la rly
e n te ritis an d d ia r r h o e a ) , a high r a te o f alco h o l-related d is
105
e a se s (e sp e c ia lly c ir r h o s is of th e liv e r a n d p a n c r e a titis ) , h ig h

in fa n t m ortality (p a r tic u la r ly p e rin a ta l a n d cot d e a th s ) , a n d a
h ig h lev el o f pn eu m o n ia.
In th e USA, ra c ia l d iffe re n c e s in m ortality also p e r s is t
an d p ro b a b ly will rem ain a problem a s long a s b ro a d socio
economic d iffe re n c e s rem ain b etw een th e b la c k a n d w hite
p o p u la tio n s. D esp ite a s u b s ta n tia l n a rro w in g o f th e gap
betw een b la c k a n d w h ite life e x p e c ta n c y in th e la st 40 y e a r s ,
black A m ericans to d a y c a n , on th e a v e r a g e , p ro b a b ly e x p e c t
to liv e ab o u t six y e a r s le s s th a n w hite A m ericans. In a d
d itio n , b la c k A m erican m ales h a v e th e low est life e x p e c ta n c y
at b ir th o f all th e m ajor m inority g ro u p s in th e USA. With
re s p e c t to in fa n t m o rta lity , th e g ap b etw een b la ck a n d w hite
b a b ie s h a s not n a rro w e d a t all o v e r th e la s t 50 y e a r s . B lack
bab ie s a re alm ost tw ice a s lik ely to die in th e ir f ir s t y e a r of
life com pared w ith w hite b a b ie s , a n d th e y a re also more lik ely
to w eigh le s s a t b i r th . B lack m o th ers a re le s s likely to se ek
p re n a ta l c a r e , a n d a re fo u r tim es a s lik ely to die g iv in g b ir th
com pared w ith w hite m o th e rs. It w ould seem th a t m o rtality
d iffe re n c e s a re s u b s ta n tia lly sm aller b etw een b la ck a n d w hite
c h ild re n from sim ilar socio-econom ic b a c k g ro u n d s . Most of th e
d iffe re n c e s b etw een b lack a n d w h ite c h ild re n can be
a cc o u n te d fo r by th e h ig h e r p ro p o rtio n of b lac k in f a n ts b o rn
to d is a d v a n ta g e d m o th e rs. O nce b o r n , a n d h a v in g s u c c e s s
fully s u rv iv e d th e f i r s t y e a r o f life , b la c k c h ild re n a re le s s
likely to b e th e re c ip ie n ts o f h e a lth c a r e . In 1979, for
exam ple, only 39 p e r c e n t o f b lack 1-4 y e a r olds w ere im
m unised a g a in s t polio com pared w ith 64 p e r c e n t of w hite
c h ild re n , a n d th e same s itu a tio n a p p lied to m easles a n d
ru b e lla im m unisation (N atio n al C e n te r fo r H ealth S ta tis tic s ,
1983, T ab le 5 ) . More re c e n t f ig u re s in d ic a te th a t alm ost 31
p e r c e n t o f all b la c k fam ilies (a b o u t tw o million fam ilies)
e x is te d below th e p o v e rty le v e l com p ared w ith only n in e p e r
c en t of w h ite fam ilies (R e id , 1982, T ab le 13). S u b s ta n tia l
v a ria tio n s also e x is t in th e c a u s e s o f d e a th b etw een b lac k and
w hite A m ericans. F ig u re 4 .4 in d ic a te s th e tr e n d in m o rtality
ra te s fo r e ig h t major c a u s e s b e tw e e n 1950 a n d 1977. O nly in
th e c a se of d e a th s b y su ic id e d id th e w hite r a te e x c e e d th a t
o f th e b lack p o p u la tio n . In some c a s e s , s u c h as hom icide, th e
black d e a th r a te w as fiv e tim es th a t o f th e w hite p o p u la tio n .
E v id en ce from B rita in , New Z ealand a n d F ra n c e in d ic a te s
th a t much th e same d isa d v a n ta g e d h e a lth a n d m o rtality s ta tu s
c h a r a c te r is e s m any o f th e m ajor m in o rity racial a n d e th n ic
g ro u p s . G illies e t al. (1984) h a v e id e n tifie d some of th e
dim ensions o f h e a lth in e q u a lity in a s tu d y of in fa n t m o rtality
among A sian s liv in g in B ra d fo rd . T h is s tu d y show s A sian s to
have h ad a c o n s is te n tly h ig h e r le v e l o f s tillb ir th s a n d of
p e rin a ta l a n d in fa n t m o rtality r a t e s in th e p e rio d 1975-81
com pared w ith n o n -A s ia n s. T h e a u th o r s a rg u e th a t th is
situ a tio n re fle c ts th e o p e ra tio n of s e v e ra l in te r - r e la te d
fa c to r s , b u t in th e main r e f le c ts social c la s s . In B ra d fo rd th e
106
»930 1955 »960 1965 ¡970 1973 i960 »950 1935 t9$0 1965 W70 »975 »980
— o— Moügnon» neoplosms of festive ergons

Oiseoses of heori ond peritooeym
CtfeCrovflsctflor diseoses ........ Moligrtanf neoplosms of respiratory systems
Accidents — •— D«obetes mellitus
Suicides ------Homicide
Fig. 4.4 A g e-ad ju sted d eath ra te s b y selected ca u se s by

r a c e , USA, 1950-77. S ource: National C e n te r for
H ealth S ta tis tic s , H ealth U nited S ta te s 1979.
majority of Asian m others were in th e low est two social

cla sse s, and th is s ta tu s u n d o u b ted ly in flu en ced th e ir poor
rec o rd of a n ten atal a tte n d a n c e , th e ir h ig h p a rity r a te , the
pra c tic e of b e a rin g ch ild re n u n til late in life, and th e high
pro p o rtio n of lo w -b irth w eig h t b a b ie s.
Finally, H ennan and M cC racken, in th e c o u rse o f d is
c u ssin g th e sp atial d is trib u tio n of m ortality in New Zealand in
th e late 1960s, drew a tte n tio n not only to th e v e ry high
differen tial betw een Maori an d E uropean in fa n t m ortality b u t
also to th e wide sp atial v a ria tio n s th a t e x iste d with p eak s of
high Maori m ortality in T a ra n a k i, th e East C o ast, and
Tham es-Corom andel. T h e ir w ork a d d s s u p p o rt to th e view of
a d istin c tiv e spatio -tem p o ral diffu sio n o f m ortality control
sp re a d in g initially from a re a s w here Maori m ortality had
always been low (la rg e ly th e major u rb a n ise d d is tric ts with
large Maori p o p u latio n s) o u tw ard s to e n g u lf, a t a much la te r
d a te , th e more isolated h ig h e r m ortality a re a s o f tra d itio n a l
Maori settlem ent (H eenan and M cC racken, 1972).
When it comes to a s s e s sin g th e fa c to rs resp o n sib le for
racial and e th n ic v a ria tio n s in m o rtality , it is d ifficu lt to go
beyond Kitagawa an d H a u se r's comment th a t '. . . r a c e d iffe re n
tia ls , in g e n e ra l, a re c o n siste n t w ith th e in v e rs e relatio n sh ip
107
b etw een m o rtality a n d socio-econom ic s t a t u s . 1 (K itagaw a and

H a u se r, 1973, 102).
Major C a u se s o f D eath
F or much o f th e w o rld , th e r e c o rd in g o f c au se of d e a th
rem ains fra g m e n ta ry a n d la rg e ly u n s a tis f a c to r y . Fox (1972)
h a s d e s c rib e d some of th e p ro b le m s re la tin g to th e r e g is
tra tio n of d e a th s in th e F e d e ra l D is tric t o f M exico, an d q u e s
tio n s th e way d e a th s a re a llo cated to th e ir h a b itu a l p lace of
re s id e n c e . O nly in th e d e v e lo p e d c o u n trie s is a c o n s is te n t
so u rc e of c a u se of d e a th m aterial re a d ily a v a ila b le , a n d e v en
h e re th e r e a re r e a s o n s to call in to q u e s tio n th e q u a lity an d
a c c u ra c y of many r e t u r n s . C au se o f d e a th r e g is tr a tio n is
o fte n s u b je c tiv e , a n d is in flu e n c e d b y a d v a n c e s in d ia g n o stic
m ethods a s well a s fa sh io n s in r e p o r tin g a n d v a ria tio n s in
re p o rtin g p ro c e d u r e s . O ne b a sic problem c o n c e rn s th e d if f e r
in g s ty le s of d e a th c e rtific a tio n b etw een d ev elo p e d a n d d e v e l
o p in g c o u n trie s . Some y e a r s ago a World H ealth O rg a n isa tio n
s tu d y o f u r b a n m o rtality drew a tte n tio n to th e s e v a ria tio n s ,
p o in tin g o u t th a t 39 p e r c e n t o f c a u se o f d e a th s ta te m e n ts on
d e a th c e rtific a te s in Mexico C ity may b e in c o r r e c t, com pared
D EV ELO PED C O U N T R IE S
Other ond unknown Ischoemtc beort

couses 118 5 % ) diseoses ( 21% )
Cerebrovoscutor
diseose* (13%)
Other circufofory
diseoses ! 147.1
Respiratory diseoses
i73%)
CardiovascuJor
diseoses (16%)
infkienzo ,pneumc«!ot
bronchitis (15%)
AccOenfj
8 »»tence (5 % )
Other infecltous and

porosiiic diseoses
Cer«om diseases (IO%J
of infancy (7 % ) D*orrhoel dtseoses(0%)
Resprrotory tuberculosis
( 6% )
F ig . 4 .5 Major c a u s e s o f d e a th , d e v e lo p e d a n d d ev elo p in g
c o u n trie s . A bout 1980. S o u rc e : WHO E stim ate s.
108
with 22 p e r cen t in B risto l an d 26 p e r c e n t in San F rancisco

(P u ffe r an d G riffith , 1967). In a more re c e n t s tu d y in
A tlanta, Engel e t a l. (1980) found e v id en ce o f sig n ifica n t
u n d e r-re p o rtin g of some c au ses o f d e a th ( e .g . m alignant
neoplasm s) an d o v e r-re p o rtin g o f o th e rs ( e .g . v a sc u la r
d is e a s e ), as well as many in a c c u ra cie s in e n tr ie s made on th e
d eath c e rtific a te s . D espite su c h sh o rtc o m in g s, th e available
m aterial p rin cip ally from th e WHO on th e major c a u se s of
d e a th , fo r developed an d developing c o u n trie s , is re v e a lin g .
The WHO estim ates fo r a ro u n d 1980, which a re given in
Figure 4.5 in d ic a te m arked d iffe re n c e s w ith re s p e c t to mor
tality s tr u c tu r e . T he developed w orld, c h a ra c te ris e d by an
older an d ag ein g p o p u la tio n , re v e a ls a W estern p a tte r n o f
deg e n e ra tiv e d ise a se s, p a rtic u la rly h e a rt d ise a se , s tro k e , and
o th e r circ u la to ry d is e a s e s , which to g e th e r acco u n ted for 48
p e r cen t of all d e a th s , w ith c a n c e rs a d d in g a n o th e r 19 p e r
cen t. By com parison, b ecau se of th e ir more y o u th fu l p o p u
lation s tr u c tu r e an d b ecau se m ortality co n tin u es to be domi
n ated b y child in fa n t d e a th s , th e o v erall d is trib u tio n of
cau ses of d eath in developing c o u n trie s is dom inated by
diseases p re v a le n t among th e y o u n g , p a rtic u la rly p a ra sitic
and in fectiv e d is o rd e rs , in clu d in g g a s tro e n te ritis an d tu
berc u lo sis. A lthough th e d iffe rin g age s tr u c tu r e o f developed
and developing societies h elp s exp lain th e d is trib u tio n of
death s b y c a u se , a n o th e r im portant reaso n is th e somewhat
belated application of p ublic h ealth and environm ental
m easures in developing c o u n trie s , so th a t many in fectio u s and
p a ra sitic d ise a se s still flo u ris h . T h e re a re also m arked d if
feren ces in u n d e rly in g m orbidity and h ealth p a tte r n s betw een
the developed an d d eveloping w orld. C o n sid eratio n o f the
p a tte rn of hosp ital adm issions in V ictoria, A u stralia and Papua
New Guinea illu s tra te some of th e se b a sic d iffe re n c e s. A part
from c h ild b irth , pneum onia, m alaria, a c c id e n ts an d g a s tro
e n te ritis a re th e lead in g re a so n s fo r adm ission to h o sp ita l an d
health c e n tre s in P apua New G uinea. H ospital adm issions in
th e S tate of V ictoria p re s e n t an a lto g e th e r d iffe re n t p ic tu r e ,
with c a n c e rs , m ental illn e s s , h e a rt d is e a se , s tr o k e , b ro n c h itis
and u rin a ry d is o rd e rs dom inating th e m orbidity p ic tu re .
G eo g rap h ers have not shown v e ry much in te r e s t in th e
p a tte rn s of cause of d e a th p e r s e , b u t r a th e r have e ith e r
p refaced th e ir d iscu ssio n of th e sp atial p a tte r n s o f m ortality
by a b rie f comment on cau se of d e a th o r , in some c a s e s , have
d isa g g re g a te d th e ir m aterial in to b ro a d size of place c a te
g o rie s, such a s H eenan's d iscu ssio n o f d iffe re n tia l m ortality
p a tte rn s in New Zealand (H eenan, 1975). T h is s tu d y , which
exam ines among o th e r th in g s selected c a u se s o f d e a th fo r New
Zealand's 18 u rb a n a re a s , th e two is la n d s , and n o n -u rb a n
a re a s , s u g g e s ts th a t life in a major c ity c a rrie s w ith it a
g re a te r ris k of d eath from p a rtic u la r form s of h e a rt d ise a se ,
c a n c e r, an d suicid e (F ig u re 4 .6 ) . Equally s trik in g is the
e x te n t to which a re a s o u tsid e th e main u rb a n c e n tre s a re
109
sig n ific a n t fo r o th e r form s of h e a rt d is e a s e , in fe c tio n s ,

pneum onia an d d ia b e te s . T h e s tu d y also s u g g e s ts a s u b s ta n
tia l v a ria tio n in th e r is k o f c a n c e r b y p lace of re s id e n c e .
THE SPATIAL PATTERNING OF MORTALITY
So f a r , th is c h a p te r h a s c o n s id e re d o n ly some of th e major
social d iffe re n tia ls in m o rta lity . To a la rg e e x te n t th e s e
re fle c t v a ria tio n s in life s ty le , n u tr itio n , w ork p a t t e r n s ,
a ttitu d e s to h e a lth , a n d p e rs o n a l b e h a v io u r. G e o g ra p h e rs
h a v e , b y c o n tr a s t, p a id more a tte n tio n to m ortality d iffe r e n
tia ls b etw een d iffe re n t p la c e s . T he g e o g ra p h ic a p p ro a c h in
s tu d y in g m o rtality h a s la rg e ly b e e n to map s ta tic p a tte r n s of
m o rta lity , to d e s c rib e th e r e s u ltin g d is tr ib u tio n s a n d , in some
c a s e s , to te s t th e ir s ig n ific a n c e . W here c a u s a tiv e a n a ly s is h a s
b ee n a tte m p te d it h a s , fo r th e most p a r t , ra n g e d from e s s e n
tially su b je c tiv e v isu a l c o m p ariso n s fo r tw o o r more sp a tia l
p a tte r n s to m ore so p h is tic a te d s ta tis tic a l m ethodologies
e x te n d in g from sim ple c o rre la tio n , m ultiple c o rre la tio n and
A B C D E F G h
A Auckland E Other urban
B Wellington North Island
I20r C ChristchurchF Other urban
0 Dunedin South Islonu
G Non-urban
North island
H Non-urban
110 . m South Island
100
90
80
35 £ VI
Ql
—
III
jrt Diseo
-a
Bronchi
Other
€ 1
3 j?
£3 18 Urban Areas | Rest of New Zealand

# Arteriosclerotic and degenerative
F ig . 4.6 S ta n d a rd is e d m o rta lity ra tio s b y u r b a n a n d n o n -

u rb a n a r e a s . New Z e a la n d , 1964-67. S o u rc e: D ata
from H eenan (1975) T a b le s 1 a n d 2.
110
re g re ssio n an aly sis to th o se w hich u n d e rta k e an initial

scre e n in g an d distillatio n of in d e p e n d e n t v a ria b le s before
re g re ssio n m ethods a re u se d to se a rc h out u n d e rly in g causal
d eterm in an ts (Wilson, 1978, 150).
T he u tility of su ch an ap p ro a c h r e s ts on th e b elief th a t
both d eath an d d isease d isp lay d is tin c tiv e sp a tia l p a tte r n s ,
and th a t th e id en tificatio n of th e se may lead to h y p o th e se s as
to cau se. More sp ecifically , th e id en tificatio n o f a re a s o f high
m ortality, o r of a re a s w here m ortality from a specific ca u se is
especially p re v a le n t, can facilitate h e a lth -c a re p la n n in g ,
maximise th e effect of p a rtic u la r h e a lth p ro g ra m s, a n d avoid
ineq u alities in th e p ro v isio n of h ealth c a re . Equally im p o rtan t,
the id en tificatio n of th e sp atial co n to u rs o f m ortality may a)
illum inate b ro ad social an d sp atial v a ria tio n s in th e human
condition, an d b ) p ro v id e clu es a s to cau se an d th u s to
p re v e n tio n . Many g e o g ra p h e rs , th e r e f o r e , see th e id e n tifi
cation of th e sp atial p a tte r n of m ortality as re p re s e n tin g a
firs t ste p in serio u s causal in q u iry . At a slig h tly low er level
of e x p e c ta tio n , th e coincidence o f p a rtic u la r environm ental
and socio-economic fa c to rs w ith p a rtic u la r sp a tia l p a tte r n s of
m ortality may s u g g e s t fru itfu l lines o f f u r th e r epidemiologic
in v e stig a tio n . Finally, th e delineation o f g eographical a re a s
affected b y high an d sta tistic a lly sig n ific an t levels o f mor
tality may p in p o in t p a rtic u la r com ponents of th e p h y sic al and
social environm ent h a z ard o u s to h ealth th a t a re not normally
a p p a re n t. If a n y th in g , most of th e g eo g rap h ic re se a rc h
in v e stig a tin g m ortality h a s been c a rrie d o u t w ithin th e
trad itio n of th e p a tte rn -o rie n ta tio n a p p ro ach (Woods, 1979).
T his work h a s been p rim arily c ro ss-se c tio n a l in ap p ro a c h ,
bro ad ly d e sc rip tiv e , an d c o n cern ed mainly to id en tify sp a tia l
p a tte rn s a s an en d p o in t in th em selv es, r a th e r th a n w ith any
vig o ro u s se a rc h for c a u se s p u rs u e d a t micro level. In
ad d itio n , n early all th e g eo g rap h ic s tu d ie s o f m ortality have
p ro ceed ed , by em ploying re sid e n tia lly -b a s e d d a ta , to p ro d u ce
maps of m ortality on th e b a sis of w here people re sid e d a t th e
time of d e a th . A lthough it is tr u e th a t g e o g ra p h e rs rem ain
p ris o n e rs of th e ir d ata so u rc e s a n d , in p a rtic u la r, o f th e
spatial n e t for which d a ta a re co llected , it would seem th a t a
s tro n g case can be made fo r m ortality maps and an a ly ses
based on w orkplace lo catio n s, re sid e n c e an d job h is to ry , and
n a tu re of em ploym ent. Almost all g eo g rap h ic s tu d ie s have
relied on th e use of s ta n d a rd is e d m ortality ra te s o ften cal
culated fo r males an d females se p a ra te ly . T he value of th is
summary m easure h as re c e n tly been q u e stio n ed b y M cCracken
who, in a sh o rt b u t stim u latin g p a p e r, a rg u e s th e case fo r
d isa g g re g a tin g m ortality in to a g e -sp e cific c a te g o rie s.
M cCracken p o in ts o u t how sta n d a rd is e d m ortality r a te s may
obscu re im portant a g e -sp e c ific v a ria tio n s in m ortality
(M cC racken, 1981). C horopleth maps a re th e most widely u sed
d e sc rip tiv e method an d have th e a d v a n ta g e o f g eographical
p recisio n and th e d isa d v a n ta g e of p lacin g more v isu al w eight
111
M O RTA LITY P A T T E R N S IN T H E MODERN WORLD
on th e la rg e , more sp a rse ly o r u n ev en ly p o p u lated sp atial

u n its while failing to give em phasis to sm aller a re a s su ch as
tow ns and c itie s. In an e ffo rt to surm ount th is problem
sev e ra l g e o g ra p h e rs , su c h a s Howe(1970) and Heenan (1976),
have em ployed more sty lise d dem ographic form ats in w hich the
population size of th e are a l u n it is made p ro p o rtio n al to th e
total population at ris k .
In te rn a tio n a l C o n tra sts

T h ere i i a long tra d itio n in g eo g rap h y co n cern ed with
o b se rv in g , m apping and d e s c rib in g w orldw ide p a tte r n s o f
m ortality d is trib u tio n , such a s c ru d e d e a th r a te s , life e x p e c t
an c y , an d in fa n t m o rtality . Such w ork fits w ithin th e p a tte r n -
app ro ach of population g e o g ra p h y , an d is p rim arily p r e
occupied w ith co n sid eratio n s of Where? r a th e r th a n with Why
th e re ? (J o n e s , 1981, 6 ). A lthough many g e o g ra p h e rs have
examined in te r-n a tio n a l p a tte r n s o f c ru d e d e ath r a te s , su c h a
m easure conceals wide d iffe re n c e s betw een reg io n s and
c o u n trie s, and h as no real p u b lic -h e a lth m eaning. E xpectation
of life at b ir th p ro v id e s a b e tte r in s ig h t in to th e c u rre n t
health s ta tu s of p o p u la tio n , b e in g larg ely in d e p e n d e n t o f age
s tr u c tu r e , even th o u g h it is not a g e -s ta n d a rd is e d . F ig u re 4.7
shows th e sp atial d is trib u tio n o f life ex p ec tan cy a t b irth
aro u n d 1980. An exam ination of th is map re v e a ls a v a rie ty of
m ortality p a tte r n s . T hose c o u n trie s w here life ex p e cta n cy is
50 o r below a re d istin c tiv e ly e q u a to ria l o r tro p ical in d is tr i
b u tio n . Almost all of A frica so u th o f th e S ah ara an d n o rth of
th e R epublic of S outh A frica falls w ithin th is d isad v a n tag ed
g ro u p , as does a group of so u th an d so u th e a st Asian
c o u n trie s e x te n d in g from A fg h an istan th ro u g h In d ia , N epal,
B an g lad esh , Kam puchea an d Laos to In d o n esia. By c o n tr a s t,
w estern an d n o rth e rn E u ro p e, N orth A m erica, Jap an and
A u stralasia all enjoy a life ex p e c ta n cy at b ir th in e x c e ss o f 70
y e a rs a n d , in th e case o f A u stra lia , J a p a n , S w eden, Norway
and S w itzerlan d , in e x c e ss of 75 y e a rs . Most of Latin
Am erica, w ith th e ex cep tio n o f th e A rg e n tin e , U ruguay and
H aiti, an d th e Islamic w orld h ad an in term ed iate ex p ectatio n
of life of betw een 55 an d 64 y e a r s , while th e USSR a n d C hina
had life e x p ectan cy lev els o f betw een 65 an d 69 y e a rs .
T he most im p o rtan t d iffe re n c e b etw een th e m ortality
ex p erien ce of developed an d d eveloping c o u n trie s q u ite clearly
o ccu rs in th e f ir s t y e a r of life (F ig u re 4 .8 ) . N orth and
w estern E u ro p e, N orth A m erica, Jap an an d A u stra la sia vividly
sta n d out as a region of v e ry low in fa n t m o rtality . At th e
o th e r en d o f th e sp e c tru m , in much of A frica, th e Middle E ast
and South Asia in fa n t m ortality ra te s a re a t th e ir h ig h e s t,
often in e x c e ss of 140 d e a th s p e r 1000 live b ir th s . Between
th e se two ex trem es lies a h an d fu l o f e a s t and so u th E uropean
S ta te s , to g e th e r w ith C uba an d C hile, w ith ra te s betw een 12
and 25. F inally, much of c e n tra l an d S outh A m erica, C hina,
112
MORTALITY
PATTERNS
IN THE MODERN
F ig . 4.7 Life e x p e c ta n cy a t b ir th about 1980. Source: D ata from Population R eference B u re a u , World
WORLD
Population D ata S h e e t, 1984.
113
V a
i Less than 12
E 3 1 2 -2 5
(US 2 6 -5 1
H 5 2 -1 0 3
[¡HI] K>4 - 2 0 7
91 More ¡her 28C
F ig . 4.8 In fa n t m o rtality r a te s ab o u t 1980.

P op u latio n D ata S h e e t, 1984.
MORTALITY
PATTERNS
IN THE
MODERN
WORLD
S o u rce : D ata from P opulation R eferen ce B u re a u , World

the USSR, Y ugoslavia an d Romania h av e in term ed iately high

ra te s of betw een 26 an d 103 d e a th s p e r 1000 liv e b ir th s .
Regional C o n tra sts

A num ber of g e o g ra p h e rs have a d d re s s e d th e problem of
regional in eq u alities in m ortality le v e ls, b o th from th e p o int o f
view of d em o n stratin g how national fig u re s can d isg u ise wide
regional v a ria tio n s in h ealth an d m o rtality , an d in an e ffo rt to
discover how su ch d iffe re n tia ls change o v e r tim e. C arvalho,
for exam ple, p ro v id e s estim ates of life e x p ecta n cy ra te s in 10
reg io n s of B razil, and docum ents a sig n ifican t d e c rea se in
regional v ariatio n betw een 1930 an d 1970 (C a rv a lh o , 1974).
Field, in h is b ro ad overview of C anadian regional m ortality
p a tte rn s o v er th e la st h a lf-c e n tu ry , also fin d s evidence of a
decline in th e m agnitude of m ortality d iffe re n tia ls (F ield,
1980). In p e rh a p s th e w id e st-ra n g in g s tu d y , Van Poppel
d iscu sses th e p a tte rn of male an d female life e x p ectan cy for
almost 260 reg io n s of n o rth an d w estern E urope in 1969-77.
His work d em o n strates a c le a r lin k betw een a re a s o f relativ ely
low male life ex p ectan cy an d th e location o f u rb a n isa tio n ,
m ining, heavy in d u s tr y , an d d o c k y a rd s. By c o n tr a s t, a g ri
c u ltu ra l a re a s and th e more afflu en t reg io n s o f u rb a n /
s u b u rb a n settlem ent an d economic d ev elo pm ent, su c h as in
sou th east E n g lan d , p o sse ss a much more fav o u rab le male life
exp ectan cy (F ig u re 4 .9 ) . In B ritain th e re also a p p e a rs a
well-m arked g ra d ie n t from th e o ld e r in d u s tria l a re a s of th e
n o rth and n o rth w est to th e more a d v a n ta g e d so u th and ea st
(Van Poppel, 1981).
A lthough s u b sta n tia l regional d iffe re n tia ls have been
found to e x ist in m o rta lity , an d alth o u g h th e re is some e v i
dence th a t, o v er tim e, su c h d iffe re n tia ls le sse n in m agnitude,
it would ap p e a r th e th e tr e n d is not a s m arked fo r all age
and social g ro u p s. K nox, fo r exam ple, in exam ining regional
p a tte rn s of in fa n t m ortality in B rita in from 1949 to 1972, finds
evidence of co n sid erab le sta b ility in p a tte r n s of social and
spatial in e q u a lity . Commencing with th e assum ption th a t social
class g ra d ie n ts in in fa n t m ortality h av e p e r s is te d a n d p e rh a p s
widened in th is p e rio d , Knox was in te re s te d in d isco v e rin g
w h eth er o r not su ch in e q u a litie s h ad sp atial e x p re s s io n , and
w hether sp atial g ra d ie n ts in in fa n t m ortality have parallelled
social class g ra d ie n ts o v e r th e last 20 y e a rs . In fa c t, he
discovered th a t th e p a tte r n of sp atial in e q u a lity ch an g ed v e ry
little betw een 1949 an d 1972. O v erall, th e sp a tia l d istrib u tio n
of in fan t m ortality te n d e d to re fle c t lo n g -e sta b lish e d v a r i
ations in th e d is trib u tio n of social c la sse s an d levels o f u n
em ploym ent, and v a ria tio n s in th e q u a lity o f life an d e n v iro n
mental co n d itio n s, all of which may h av e h a d an additional
effect on v a ria tio n s in th e q u ality an d u tilisatio n o f in fa n t
health c a re . Knox concluded th a t p a tte r n s o f in fa n t health
both reflect and b o ls te r th e d is trib u tio n o f h ig h e r s ta tu s
115
Fig. 4 .9 Male life e x p e c ta n cy a t b ir th , reg io n s o f W estern

an d N o rth e rn E urope 1969-77. S ource: Van Poppel
(1981).
g ro u p s in society at th e e x p e n se of th e more d isad v an ta g e d

g ro u p s , an d th a t th is sp a tia l p a tte r n was both long e s ta b
lish ed an d p e rs is te n t (K nox, 1981).
In a stu d y of regio n al an d community v a ria tio n s in in fa n t
m ortality in P e ru , Edm onston an d A ndes found evidence o f a
su b sta n tia l r u r a l- u r b a n d iffe re n tia l in m o rtality , a n d su g g e st
th a t m ortality is in v e rse ly re la te d to community siz e, w ith th e
hig h e st ra te s in m ountain S ie rra com m unities an d th e low est in
m etropolitan Lima. A lthough th e re was a s tro n g association
betw een socio-economic s ta tu s , m o th ers' ed u cational lev el and
in fa n t m o rtality , a ltitu d e also d isp lay ed a p e rs is te n tly p o sitive
association w ith community m o rta lity , e v en a f te r c o n tro llin g
fo r socio-economic s ta tu s an d th e d istrib u tio n o f h ea lth facili
tie s (Edm onston an d A n d es, 1983). T u rn in g now to regional
an aly ses of c a u se -sp e c ific m ortality p a tte r n s , Howe (1970,
116
1976) h as p ro v id ed a s e rie s of d etailed c a u se -sp e cific mor

ta lity maps of th e U nited Kingdom, M urray (1967) m aps of
m ortality p a tte r n s in th e USA, Heenan (1975) maps o f d iffe r
en tial m ortality in New Z ealand, an d McGlashan (1977) a
serie s of maps show ing m ortality ra te s from selected c a u se s in
A u stralia. Most of th e se s tu d ie s h av e w orked w ith d a ta col
lected a t th e b ro ad sta tis tic a l level o f c o u n tie s, s h ir e s ,
b o ro u g h s, tow ns an d c itie s , an d all h av e u se d sta n d a rd ise d
m ortality ra te s to id e n tify a re a s o f h ig h and low m ortality
from specific c a u se s. Howe, fo r exam ple, shows how high
ra te s from h e a rt d isease a re c o n c e n tra te d in th e n o rth o f th e
United Kingdom, in so u th Wales, an d in p a r ts o f L an cash ire,
Y o rk sh ire, T eesid e, Scotland an d N o rth ern Ire la n d , as well as
in sev eral London b o ro u g h s. T he coincidence o f h e a rt disease
with densely se ttle d in d u s tria lis e d d is tr ic ts an d w ith low er-
class re sid e n tia l a re a s of th e major c itie s is clearly demon
s tra te d by th is w ork, an d by th e w ork of McGlashan (1977)
and B urnley (1982) in A u stra lia . In re c e n t y e a r s , a num ber
of g e o g ra p h e rs have fo cused on th e in c re a sin g toll of u n
n e c e ssa ry d eath asso ciated w ith th e pace of m odern u rb a n
livin g , su ch as a lco h o l-related d e a th s , motor vehicle acci
d e n ts , an d su icid e. McGlashan h a s , fo r exam ple, exam ined th e
spatial v a ria tio n s in alco h o l-related d e a th s in Tasm ania, and
fin d s a sig n ifican t s ta tistic a l re la tio n sh ip to e x ist betw een
cirrh o sis o f th e liv e r d e a th s , alcoholism , and th e m asculinity
and m arriage ra te (M cG lashan, 1980). B u rn ley and McGlashan
have also an aly sed th e sp atial p a tte r n of suicide d e a th s in
A u stralia, u s in g a v a rie ty of m apping co n v en tio n s (B u rn ley
and M cGlashan, 1980), and B ro d sk y an d H akkert have exam
ined th e spatial d is trib u tio n of m otor vehicle d e a th s in th e
ru ra l a re a s of T exas in term s o f ac c e ss to em ergency medical
serv ices (B ro d sk y an d H a k k e rt, 1983). Selya also exam ines
motor vehicle d e a th s , b u t in th is case w ithin th e isla n d o f
Taiwan and w ithin th e fram ew ork o f th e epidemiologic t r a n
sition model. He ra ise s th e in te r e s tin g q u e stio n a s to w h eth er
th e re is evidence o f sig n ifican t c h a n g e s in ris k -ta k in g b e h a v
io u r asso ciated w ith societies u n d e rg o in g ra p id social ch an g e,
and lin k s th is to th e in c re a se in fatal ro a d ac c id e n ts (S ely a,
1980). A num ber of Ja p an ese sc h o la rs have stu d ie d th e
regional d is trib u tio n of d e a th s from c e re b ro v a s c u la r disease
(T ak ah ash i, 1981; T am ashiro e t a l. , 1981) and lu n g can cer
(Minowa et a l. , 1981). Most of th is w ork h a s b een d ire c te d
tow ards th e aim of p ro v id in g h y p o th e se s fo r th e in v e stig a tio n
of c a u se , su ch as T a k a h a sh i's d iscu ssio n of th e g eo graphical
p a tte rn s of c e re b ro -v a s c u la r d e a th s in J a p a n , which revealed
a s tro n g n o rth e a s t-s o u th w e s t g ra d ie n t, w ith th e h ig h e st
m ortality ra te s in th e n o rth e a s t p re fe c tu re o f th e main islan d
(Tohoku re g io n ), an d th e low est in th e so u th w est p re fe c tu re s
su rro u n d in g th e inlan d se a , as wellas on th e isla n d of
Hokkaido. Within th e Tohoku re g io n , T ak ah ash i also found
considerable v a ria tio n , p a rtic u la rly b etw een th e coastal fish in g
117
communities an d th e in lan d farm ing com m unities. T h is led the

au th o r to p ro b e v a ria tio n s in th e p a tte r n o f d iet a n d e n v iro n
mental fa c to rs su ch as salt in ta k e (v e ry h ig h in th e Tohoku
re g io n ), am bient te m p e ra tu re s , and th e biochem ical e n v iro n
ment of th e isla n d s. More re c e n tly , Mohan and R h in d , in a
m onograph p e rh a p s more im p o rtan t fo r th e method it ad v an ces
th a n fo r th e r e s u lts of its a n a ly s is , h av e exam ined sm all-scale
v a ria tio n s in m ortality e x p e rie n c e w ithin Durham C ounty in
E ngland. U sing th e sig n ed C h i-sq u a re s ta tis tic , which ta k e s
into account ab so lu te an d re la tiv e d ev iatio n s from th e norm as
well as p erm ittin g a q u a sip ro b a b a listic a p p ro ach to m ortality
m apping, th e y examine p a tte r n s of c a u se -sp e cific m ortality at
v a ry in g levels of sp atial reso lu tio n (Mohan and R h in d , 1983).
In tra -C ity C o n tra sts

The application of geog rap h ical m ethods to m ortality p a tte r n s
has also p ro v ed fru itfu l a t th e m etropolitan lev e l, even
tho u g h th e re a re still relativ ely few s tu d ie s available, p a r
ticu larly of cities in th e d eveloping w orld. Most of th e stu d ie s
available a re sta tic s in g le -c ity s tu d ie s , an d th e re have been
few attem p ts e ith e r to tra c e th e c h an g in g sp atial p a tte r n s of
m ortality at th e most detailed ecological lev el, o r to p ro v id e
com parative an aly ses o f th e m ortality e x p erien c e o f se v eral
c itie s. One of th e few exam ples of th e la tte r a p p ro a ch is
Howe's discu ssio n of th e d istrib u tio n o f ischaem ic h e a rt d is
ease an d c a n c e r d e a th s in London an d Glasgow (Howe, 1972,
1982). In th e se b rie f p a p e rs Howe illu s tr a te s th e co n sid erab le
spatial v ariatio n in m ortality p a tte r n s th a t can e x ist betw een
and w ithin larg e B ritish c itie s s h a rin g th e same socio-economic
and h e a lth -c a re sy stem , as well as th e same b road a v e n u es of
access to d o cto rs an d h o sp ita ls. W hereas th e p a tte r n of
m ortality from h e a rt d isease an d c a n c e r showed a declining
incidence as one moved o u tw ard from th e core in London, in
Glasgow much more of a secto ral p a tte r n was e v id e n t. Howe
in d icates th e population g ro u p s most at ris k from p rem atu re
death from c a n c e r a n d /o r h e a rt d isease to be th o se liv in g in
th e in d u s tria l lo w e r-sta tu s s u b u rb s .
The m ajority of s tu d ie s in v e s tig a tin g in tr a - u r b a n p a t
te rn s of m ortality rem ain b ro ad ly d e s c rip tiv e in d e sig n ,
seek in g to id e n tify , m ap, d e sc rib e and explain u rb a n in
eq u alities in m ortality ra te s an d re la te th e s e v a ria tio n s to th e
sp atial d istrib u tio n of a v a rie ty of environm ental a n d socio
economic v a ria b le s. Most stu d ie s a re couched at th e broad
ag g re g a tiv e lev el, re ly in g on d a ta collected fo r b ro a d adm ini
stra tiv e a re a s such a s b o ro u g h s, m u n icipalities, an d electo ral
d is tr ic ts . The most common method h a s b een to map s ta n d a rd
ised m ortality ra te s fo r p a rtic u la r c a u se s (p a rtic u la rly h e a rt
d ise a se , c a n c e rs , c e re b ro v a s c u la r d isease and su ic id e ),
d escrib e th e p a tte r n , in some cases te s t it fo r sig n ifican ce,
and th e n to loosely h y p o th e sise possib le ris k fa c to rs e ith e r
118
in tu itiv e ly o r from com parison w ith o th e r d istrib u tio n a l p a t

te r n s . An additional ste p h as often b een to assem ble an a rra y
of environm ental an d socio-economic v a ria b le s in a co rrelatio n
m atrix and tak e th e re s u ltin g p o sitiv e a n d n e g a tiv e associ
ations w ith m ortality as in d ic a tin g c a u sa lity . B u rn ley h a s , for
exam ple, an aly sed m ortality p a tte r n s in S ydney a n d M elbourne
(B u rn le y , 1977, 1980, 1982), Gibson an d Johan sen (1979) in
S y d n ey , Howe (1970, 1972, 1979) in London a n d Glasgow,
Moens (1984) in B ru s s e ls , Pyle (1971) and Pyle and Rees
(1971) in E x e te r, while Fox (1972) p ro v id e s one o f th e v e ry
few stu d ie s of in tr a - u r b a n m ortality p a tte r n s in a major city
of th e developing w orld. Most of th e se s tu d ie s have c o n sist
ently re p o rte d high ra te s of m ortality to e x ist in in n e r-c ity
a re a s , in b lu e -c o lla r s u b u r b s , and in a n d a ro u n d in d u stria l
a re a s . T h is seems to ap p ly to a wide v a rie ty o f c a u se s of
d e a th , b u t p a rtic u la rly to to tal m o rtality , in fa n t m ortality,
ischaemic h e a rt d ise a se , some c a n c e rs , p e p tic u lc e r, c irrh o sis
of th e liv e r, d e a th s from in fectio u s d isease and suicide.
Exceptions to th e above a p p e a r to be motor vehicle a cc id en ts
and stomach c a n c e r. A num ber of s tu d ie s have also con
sid ered th e problem of th e sp atial p a tte r n s o f in fa n t m ortality
within th e c ity , su ch a s Wilson (1972, 1979), B u rn ley (1977),
Wood (1982), an d P icheral (1976). Wilson, in h is s tu d y of
in fan t d e a th s in Wollongong, A u stra lia , su g g e st th a t th e
uneven spatial d is trib u tio n of in fa n t m ortality w ithin th e city
could be acco u n ted fo r b y a c lu s te r of v a ria b le s re p re s e n tin g
family s ta tu s , m aternal c h a ra c te ris tic s , e th n ic ity , household
c h a ra c te ris tic s , p o v e rty , unem ploym ent, an d environm ental
fa c to rs. In p a r tic u la r , he p o stu la te s th e e x isten c e of a d ire c t
causal link betw een n o n -s ta n d a rd families an d in fa n t d e a th s
o p e ra tin g th ro u g h th e medium of su ch th in g s a s dim inished
m othering, poor a n te n a ta l c a r e , p o o re r m aternal conditions
(fo r exam ple, low age at b ir th , e th n ic s ta tu s , illegitim ate
b irth ) o r , in some c a se s, d e lib e ra te m altreatm ent (Wilson,
1979).
THE IDENTIFICATION OF RISK FACTORS AND CAUSAL

GEOGRAPHIC RESEARCH
As mentioned ab o v e, many g e o g ra p h e rs have claimed th a t th e

identification of sp atial p a tte r n s o f m ortality re p re s e n t th e
firs t sta g e in a sequence of more co m prehensive in v e stig a tio n s
leading to c au se. To a la rg e e x te n t th e e ffo rt has been to
disco v er th o se com ponents of th e n a tu ra l a n d social e n v iro n
ment h azard o u s to h e a lth an d re sp o n sib le fo r p rem atu re
d e a th . T he problem of e sta b lis h in g cau sality would seem to be
a c e n tra l issu e for th e g eo g rap h ic stu d y of m o rtality. P rob
ably th e scientific dem onstration o f c a u sa lity in geographic
rese a rc h rem ains an illu so ry a n d u n o b tain ab le goal. The basic
problem is th a t s ta tistic a l asso ciatio n s o r c o rre latio n s may be
119
su g g e s tiv e , b u t n e v e r co n clu siv e, p ro o f o f a c a u se -e ffe c t

rela tio n sh ip . In p ra c tic e th is m eans th a t th e m atte r o f d e te r
mining cau sality from co rrelatio n an a ly se s is heavily d e p e n
d en t upon th e su b jectiv e b ia se s o f th e in d iv id u al r e s e a rc h e r .
Given th is , many of th e claims o f medical g eo g rap h y th a t th e
spatial ap p ro ach may u n e a rth cau sal p a tte r n s n eed carefu l
s c ru tin y . Much w ork in g eo g rap h y h a s en d ea v o u red to e s ta b
lish c au ses b y v ariab le association o r asso ciativ e o c c u rre n ce
of a nu m b er of enviro n m en tal an d socio-economic fa c to rs , a n d
in many cases th e r e s u lts h av e b een bio-socialiy im probable
and pay little a tte n tio n to co n fo u n d in g o r in te rv e n in g fa c to rs.
In ad d itio n , th e in fe re n c e th a t re sid e n tia l location p la y s a role
in th e cause - e ffect seq u en ce g o v e rn in g human m ortality
need s q u e stio n in g . It is q u ite p o ssib le , fo r exam ple, as Smith
rem a rk s, 'th a t m ortality p a tte r n s may be more an outcome of
perso n al o r g ro u p circu m stan ce th a t o f local o r environm ental
q u ality ' (S m ith, 1982, 3 ). T he problem of what King has
called laten cy an d mobility also h a s not b een fully a p p re c ia ted
by g e o g ra p h e rs (K in g , 1979). Much re s e a rc h on m ortality
does not ta k e in to account th e tim e-lag b etw een ex p o su re to a
p a rtic u la r d isease ag en t an d d e a th . D eg en erative d ise ases may
not lead to d eath u n til se v e ra l d ecad es a f te r th e initial o n s e t,
and in th e interim th e environm ental a n d /o r socio-economic
facto rs resp o n sib le fo r th e symptoms o f th e disease may have
v an ish e d . T his h a s w id e -ra n g in g im plications fo r a g eo g rap h y
of m ortality b ased on th e assum ption th a t place o f resid en ce
at d eath is in some way a fa c to r lead in g o r c o n trib u tin g to
d e a th . It would seem th a t, r a th e r th a n p u rs u e re sid e n c e -
b ased stu d ie s of m o rtality , it would be much more fru itfu l to
employ longitudinal an d co h o rt s tu d ie s , o r p e rh a p s attem p t to
re c o n s tru c t, re tro s p e c tiv e ly , in d iv id u a ls' re sid e n tia l an d work
h isto ry and th e ir h is to ry of e x p o su re to p a rtic u la r e n v iro n
mental h a z a rd s. In a d d itio n , th e ra n g e of v aria b les which
g e o g ra p h e rs have u tilise d in th e ir an a ly se s has been somewhat
re s tr ic tiv e . Few atte m p ts have b een made to c o n sid er th e
spatial p a tte rn in g of biochemical a n d /o r physiologic v a ria b le s
o r how th e ir d is trib u tio n may in flu en ce th e geographical
p a tte rn of m ortality. One su ch attem pt h a s been b y G ibson
and Jo h an sen (1979) w ho, in add itio n to p ro v id in g a num ber
of maps of m ortality p a tte r n s from p a rtic u la r c a u s e s , also
include a s e rie s of p ro v o cativ e maps illu s tr a tin g a wide ra n g e
of bio-social d ata (se e also M eade, 1983). F ig u re 4.10
p re s e n ts ju s t th r e e o f th e se maps show ing th e sp atial d is tr i
bution of diastolic blood p r e s s u r e , ch o lestero l le v e ls, and
levels of o b esity w ithin S y d n ey .
The Id entification of P a rtic u la r R isk F acto rs

Most g e o g ra p h e rs w orking i n th e field of human h ea lth and
m ortality have attem p ted to id e n tify th o se com ponents of th e
phy sical an d socio-economic environm ent th o u g h t to b e in
120
some way h a z ard o u s to human h ealth and p o ssib ly linked to

p rem atu re m ortality.
T he association betw een climate a n d m ortality is b e g in
ning to a ttr a c t more a tte n tio n from g e o g ra p h e rs , alth o u g h a
vig o ro u s scien tific in v e stig a tio n of th e rela tio n sh ip has y e t to
be u n d e rta k e n . Gentilli (1980) h as p ro v id e d a p relim in ary b u t
stim ulating comment on th e in flu en ce of clim atic fa c to rs on
A ustralian h e a lth , ra n g in g a c ro ss a d isc u ssio n of in fectio n ,
v e c to r-b o rn e an d d e g e n e ra tiv e d ise a se s. Seasonal rh y th m s in
m ortality have also a ttra c te d some a tte n tio n from g e o g ra p h e rs ,
with Kevan (1980a, 1980b) d isc u ssin g seasonal v a ria tio n s in
suicid e, McGlashan an d G rice (1983) th e link betw een daily
and monthly minimum te m p e ra tu re s a n d su d d e n in fa n t d eath
syndrom e, Sato (1981) th e seaso n ality o f stom ach c an c er in
Ja p a n , an d Paulozzi (1981) seasonal p a tte r n s of m ortality in
A laska. In u rb a n clim ates, m ortality h a s been most re g u la rly
stu d ie d in relatio n to ex trem es o f te m p e ra tu re . In th e USA
high m ortality ra te s h av e b een shown to be asso ciated with
summer h eat-w av es in s e v e ra l m etropolitan a re a s . On th e
a v e ra g e , high am bient te m p e ra tu re s a re asso c iate d with th e
death s of more th a n 200 A m ericans e v e ry y e a r an d p ro d u c e a
d istin c tiv e p a tte r n of in tr a - u r b a n m ortality and m orbidity.
In n e r-c ity a re a s , to g e th e r with s u b u rb s of low socio-economic
s ta tu s , black p eople, H isp an ics, th e e ld e rly , th e ph y sically
han dicapped and th e poor would all seem to be at risk
(Schum an, 1972).
T he e ffe c ts of a ir pollution on human h ea lth an d mor
tality have also b een long re c o g n ise d . C u rre n tly th e r e is a
co n sen su s th a t th e h ab it of sm oking r e p r e s e n ts a sig n ifican t
risk fa c to r in p rem atu re m ortality from a v a rie ty of d ise a se s,
y et v e ry few g e o g ra p h e rs have co n sid ered sm oking b eh av io u r
in th e ir d iscu ssio n of c a u se -sp e c ific m ortality , with th e
exception of a re c e n t stu d y b y H eenan in to th e g en eral
incidence of sm oking in New Zealand (H een an , 1983). As well
as self-im posed a ir p o llu tio n , p eo p le's lu n g s a re also ex posed
to a ir p o llu ted by th e em issions of motor v eh ic le s, in d u s tr y ,
an d domestic a c tiv itie s . M acDonald, in h is stu d y of ca n ce r
d e a th s in H ouston, found an association betw een a re a s of high
a ir pollution and c a n c e r r a te s , p a rtic u la rly among th e non
white a n d H ispanic population (M acDonald, 1976). Lead has
claimed special a tte n tio n as a p o llu ta n t, mainly b ecau se of its
toxicity an d its fairly re g u la r o c c u rre n c e in th e n a tu ra l
environm ent. In re c e n t y e a r s , co n sid erab le a tte n tio n h as been
d ire c te d tow ard s th e level of lead in g e stio n an d th e d e tr i
m ental e ffe c ts of lead poisoning on y o u n g c h ild re n . H u n ter
h a s, fo r exam ple, exam ined th e summer p eak found in lead
poisoning in u r b a n -in d u s tria l a re a s of th e USA (H u n te r,
1978). Both he an d C aprio e t a l. (1975) have d isc u sse d th e
sp atial v a ria tio n s in lead a b so rp tio n in term s of re sid en tial
proxim ity to major a rte ria l ro u tew ay s. T he a d v e rse e ffe cts of
w ater pollution a re also well d ocum ented, p a rtic u la rly for
121
DIASTOLIC BLOOD
PRESSU RE
CD low
Med urn
High
H Non-Resider rial Uses
C H O LE S T E R O L
□ Low
P 3 M ediu m
L J High
Hi Non-R««Jert<af L/scs
F ig . 4.10 T h e d is trib u tio n o f d ia sto lic blood p r e s s u r e , chol

e s te r o l a n d o b e s ity r a t e s , S y d n e y M etropolitan
A re a, 1970-75. S o u rc e : Sim plified from G ibson an d
J o h a n s e n (1979) w ith p e rm issio n .
122
n in e te e n th -c e n tu ry B ritish an d American com m unities. More

recen tly B eresfo rd (1981), in a re tro s p e c tiv e s tu d y , h a s
in v e stig a te d th e association betw een th e re - u s e o f d rin k in g
w ater an d th e level of g a s tro in te stin a l an d u r in a r y ca n ce r
m ortality in th e London a re a . Among o th e r th in g s , th is stu d y
found th a t th e b ro ad re la tio n sh ip was not in d e p e n d e n t of
socio-economic fa c to rs which acco u n ted fo r most o f th e s ta t
istic a l association (B e re s fo rd , 1981).
T he p h y sical condition an d age o f h o u sin g , n e ig h b o u r
hood d e te rio ra tio n , an d th e lack o f p h y sic a l a n d social amen
ities have also b een exam ined as a ris k fa c to r in human
m ortality. T he role o f d am p n ess, in a d e q u ate sa n ita tio n ,
dilapidation an d o v ercro w d in g have long been reco g n ised as
having some connection to human h e a lth , alth o u g h a d irect
cau se -e ffe c t relatio n sh ip h as been v e ry d iffic u lt to p ro v e a s a
num ber of re la te d social an d economic fa c to rs may in te rv e n e .
The o ccu p an ts of th e most im poverished h o u sin g in any com
m unity a re also likely to be at a d isa d v a n tag e when it comes
to incom e, n u tritio n , e d u c a tio n , a n d ac c e ss to health c a re .
They a re also more su b ject to unem ploym ent a n d , if th e y do
w ork, th e y a re more likely to be e n g ag ed in u n h e alth y and
h azard o u s o ccu p atio n s. A num ber o f s tu d ie s have exam ined
th e role of h o u sin g in hum an h e a lth p a tte r n s . R obinson
fou n d , fo r exam ple, th a t d isa d v a n ta g e d h o u sin g condition was
one of two good in d ic a to rs o f h e a rt-d is e a s e m ortality in n o rth
e a s te rn Ohio (R obinson, 1978).
An a re a of co n sid erab le in te r e s t to g eo g rap h y has been
the possible association betw een elem ents of th e geochemical
environm ent and human m o rtality , ev en th o u g h so fa r most
re s u lts have p ro v e d in co n clu siv e. T he re la tio n sh ip s betw een
th e p h y sical an d chemical com ponents of d rin k in g w ater and
h e a rt d isease and c a n c e r have been exam ined at a v a rie ty of
lev els. S tu d ies from v a rio u s p a r ts o f th e w orld have in d ic ated
th a t so ft-w a te r su p p ly is p o ssib ly a ris k fa c to r in h e a rt
disease (C raw ford e t a l . , 1968; Howe, 1976; M eade, 1983).
A rm strong p a rtic u la rly h a s p io n eered th e g eographical in v e s ti
gation of th e association betw een tra c e elem ents in th e soil
and c an cer m o rtality , p rim arily by way of th e complex food
chain e x te n d in g from p la n ts an d anim als th ro u g h th e c u ltu ra l
p ro c e sse s of food p re p a ra tio n (A rm stro n g , 1967, 1971).
As most s tu d ie s of m ortality p a tte r n s b y g e o g ra p h e rs
have b een c a rrie d out w ithin th e c o n te x t of th e developed
w orld, w ith it s accen t on d e g e n e ra tiv e an d m an-made c au ses
of d e a th , it is not s u r p r is in g th a t g e o g ra p h e rs have paid
considerable a tte n tio n to th e social fa c to rs in p rem atu re
m ortality. Most s tu d ie s h av e u tilise d a b ro a d ecological
a p p ro a c h , se le c tin g socio-econom ic v a ria b le s from c en su s
rec o rd s u su ally to re p re s e n t social c la s s, h o u sin g s ta tu s ,
social d iso rg a n isa tio n , cro w d in g , an d c th n ic m inority s ta tu s .
More re c e n tly , g e o g ra p h e rs have b e g u n to use a much fin er
level of sp atial reso lu tio n to id e n tify m ic ro -p a tte rn s a n d to
123
MO RTA LITY PA TTERN 'S IN T H E MODERN WORLD
escape some of th e problem s a tte n d a n t on th e u se o f la rg e

areal u n its (s e e , fo r exam ple, Mohan and R h in d , 1983). T he
evidence p ro v id e d by th e se stu d ie s s u g g e s ts th a t social c la ss
rem ains one of th e s tro n g e s t d eterm in in g fa c to rs of sp a tia l
in eq u alities in m ortality.
S tu d ies of m ortality p a tte r n s in th e developing world
have larg ely placed em phasis on th e role of th e p h y sical
enviro n m en t, p a rtic u la rly as it re la te s to a wide v a rie ty of
in fectio u s an d communicable d ise a se s. M ukerjee h a s, fo r
exam ple, exam ined th e u n iq u e ecology of a small Indian region
in term s of th e enviro n m en tal d e te rm in a n ts of a ra n g e o f
in fectio u s d iseases su ch a s m alaria an d ty p h o id (M ukerjee,
1980), D utt et a l. th e role of th e p h y sic al environm ent and
la n d -u se p ra c tic e s in an India-w ide s tu d y of m alaria d e a th s
(D utt e t_a l . , 1980), and Kloos and Thom pson th e role o f
environm ental fa c to rs in th e incid en ce an d s p re a d of try p a n o -
somes an d schistosom iasis (Kloos and Thom pson, 1979). T he
disad v an tag ed n u tritio n a l an d h e a lth s ta tu s and th e im port
ance of p re m a tu re d eath among city slum , s q u a tte r an d m inor
ity dw ellers have also a ttr a c te d comment, w ith s tu d ie s by
B asta (1977) and H ughes an d H u n ter (1970). More rec e n tly a
num ber of g e o g ra p h e rs have become in te re s te d in th e in te r
relatio n sh ip s betw een th e developm ent p r o c e s s , p a rtic u la rly
th e modification of th e n a tu ra l environm ent and th e in c re a se
in d isease h a z a rd s an d p re m a tu re m o rtality. Weil show s how
a g ric u ltu ra l colonisation in Latin American has led to the
a lte rin g of th e balance betw een d isease a g e n ts , v e c to rs and
th e ir n a tu ra l h o s ts , an d g re a tly in c re a se d th e transm ission
ra te of many d ise a se s (Weil, 1981). Following up th e same
broad them e, Meade h as show n, in p e n in s u la r M alaysia, how
v o lu n tary resettlem en t p ro g ram s have in c re a se d a wide ra n g e
of d isease h a z a rd s (M eade, 1978). W ater-developm ent p ro je c ts ,
such as dams an d irrig a tio n sy ste m s, h ave in A frica, Asia
and Latin America led to an in c re a se in w a te r-b o rn e a n d
associated d ise a se s, su c h as sch isto so m iasis, m alaria and
fila ria sis, an d c re a te d whole new a re a s of tran sm issio n
(H u n te r et a l. , 1982). More re c e n tly , S indiga clearly demon
s tr a te s how th e sp re a d of ts e ts e an d sle e p in g -sic k n e ss d e a th s
in M aasailand, K enya, was closely re la te d to th e colonial
ad m in istra tio n 's policy g o v e rn in g re se ttlem e n t an d game
re s e rv e s (S in d ig a, 1984).
THE FUTURE
T here is a grow ing aw aren ess of th e n eed fo r g e o g ra p h e rs to

be more co n cern ed w ith cau sal p ro c e s s e s r a th e r th a n w ith
stra ig h tfo rw a rd d e sc rip tiv e an d co rre la tio n al a n a ly se s. It is
also c le a r th a t re s e a rc h in to th e p ro c e s se s which p ro d u ce
spatial d iffe re n c es in m ortality will re q u ire a h ig h e r level of
methodological so p h isticatio n th a n h as h ith e rto been th e c a se.
124
Much more c are is re q u ire d in d e sig n in g stu d ie s th a t will

a d d re s s th e problem of e x p o su re an d outcome in a wide
v a rie ty of environm ental an d c u ltu ra l s e ttin g s , p e rh a p s
th ro u g h th e u se of re tro s p e c tiv e an d p ro sp e c tiv e re se a rc h
stra te g ie s of p a rtic u la r p o p u la tio n s, g ro u p s and in d iv id u a ls.
The u se of c e n su s v a ria b le s as s u rro g a te s can no lo n g e r be
ju s tifie d , n o r can b ro ad a g g re g a tiv e a n a ly se s at th e macro
sp atial level. S pecifically, g e o g ra p h e rs also need to q u e stio n
th e ir p reo ccu p atio n with re sid e n tia lly -b a s e d d a ta an d th e ir
belief in th e im portance of locality as a fa c to r in flu en cin g
p rem atu re d e a th . T h e re is also a n eed to move away from
sta tic c ro ss-se c tio n a l stu d ie s an d to p ro v id e more com parative
and dynamic in v e stig a tio n s of m o rtality . F inally, th e neglect
of m ortality b y population as opposed to medical g e o g ra p h e rs
is serio u s and in d e fe n sib le . The balance sh e e t n eed s to be
made more fav o u rab le.
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131
C h ap ter Five
GOVERNMENT POPULATION POLICIES
I. Thomas
INTRODUCTION
When th e U nited Nations D epartm ent of Economic and Social

A ffairs p ro d u c e d its re p o rt on "T he World Population S ituation
in 1970" (UN, 1971) it o b se rv e d th a t all governm ents have
policies, legislation an d program m es which affect population
grow th and d is trib u tio n . It th e n w ent on to a s s e r t: "How
e v e r, su ch m easures re p r e s e n t national population policy only
when im plem ented for th e p u rp o se of a lte rin g th e n a tu ra l
cou rse of population m ovem ents." ( p . 67 ). T his view was to be
modified co n sid erab ly o v e r th e n e x t five y e a rs an d in ways
which b ro u g h t th e su b je c t m atter of p o pulation policy and
population g eo g rap h y much c lo se r.
The change in official a ttitu d e s was a lre ad y o c c u rrin g
while th e UN re p o rt was b ein g p u b lish e d . In B rita in , fo r
in s ta n c e , S ir Solly Zuckerm an - th e n C hief Scientific A d viser
to th e G overnm ent - in a memorandum on "Population grow th
in th e U nited Kingdom" to th e 1970-71 P arliam entary Select
Committee on Science and T echnology (HMSO, 1971:35-7),
noted th re e main a s p e c ts of population ch ange in B rita in in
which th e governm ent had a p a rtic u la r in te r e s t. T hey w ere
policies which in fluence population m ovement, th e e ffe c ts of
population grow th and movem ent, an d family p la n n in g and
population g ro w th . T he f irs t o f th e s e , g overnm ent policies
likely to affect m ovem ents, w ere of two s o rts : "reg io n al
policies" d esig n ed to im prove conditions in th o se a re a s d e sig
nated developm ent an d in term ed iate a r e a s , and " d is p e rsa l
policies" whose aim was to re d u c e co n g estio n in th e major
u rb a n a re a s . T he second c a teg o ry co v ered th o se a re a s of
national life for which th e governm ent h as a p la n n in g
resp o n sib ility and th e re fo re n eed s to ta k e account o f th e
likely co n sequences of population c h a n g e . T his in clu d ed the
demand for tra n s p o rt facilities, th e n a tu re of h o u sin g p ro
gram m es, th e p la n n in g of ed u catio n s e rv ic e s , th e tra in in g of
skilled w o rk e rs, and th e regional allocation of in v estm en t.
Finally, th e p rovision of family p la n n in g se rv ic e s a s p a r t of
132
GOVERNMENT P O P U L A T IO N P O L IC IE S
the National H ealth Service sin ce th e 1967 Act made th is an

im portant p a rt of th e g o v ern m en t's c o n c e rn .
His statem en t is of in te r e s t in th e c o n te x t of th is book
for se v e ra l re a s o n s. F ir s t, B ritain was n o t alone among
developed n atio n s in review ing th e n a tu re an d d e sira b ility of
governm ent policies d e sig n ed to a ffect population (B e relso n ,
1974; and Table 5 .1 ) .
Secondly, it re p r e s e n ts also th e realisatio n th a t national
population policy should co n cern its e lf n o t only with g o v e rn
ment a c tiv itie s which d ire c tly a ffect - a n d aim to affect -
population g ro w th , m ovem ent, and d is trib u tio n b u t two o th e r
a re a s as well. G overnm ent a c tiv ity in d ire c tly a ffe c ts p o p u
lation in a g re a t v a rie ty of w ays. B ut also , population has an
in te rn a l dynam ic whose e ffe c ts a re of im portance fo r a ran g e
of governm ent a c tiv itie s. T he Zuckerm an memorandum gives
explicit recognition to th e im portance o f each of th e se in te r
actions and a rg u e s th a t th e governm ent should have a co
h e re n t population policy w hich in c lu d e s them . T his b road
in te rp re ta tio n of th e n a tu re of population policy was rep eate d
at th e f ir s t World Population C onference (M auldin e t_a l . ,
1974) w here th e d eveloping n atio n s in p a rtic u la r em phasised
"developm ent" as th e ir prim e con cern an d gave a tte n tio n to
population in so fa r a s it in flu en ced th e p o ssib ilities fo r ach iev
in g d e sire d change (W olfson, 1978). It was also exam ined
T ab le 5 . 1 : I n q u i r i e s i n t o P o p u l a t i o n I n i t i a t e d by t h e
Governments o f D ev elop ed N a t i o n s , 1961-72
Israel (1962)
Canada (1967)
Israel (1968)
G reece (1968)
Japan (1969)
A u stralia (1970)
B ritain (1970)
F ran ce (1970)
Hungary (1970)
U n ite d S t a t e s (1970)
A rg en tin a (1971)
B ritain (1971)
B u lg aria (1971)
C zechoslovakia (1971)
F ra n c e (1971)
Romania (1971)
N eth erlan d s (1972)
S o u rce: B e r e l s o n , 1974a, p p . 2 2 - 2 3 , and B e r e l s o n , 1974b,

776-777.
133
system atically b y R obinson (1975, p . 2) who ad v ocated th is

approach an d c o n tra s te d it w ith w hat he c h a ra c te ris e d a s a
narrow conception of p o pulation policy co n c ern ed prim arily
with th e "o rg a n ise d e ffo rt b y governm ent to affect population
size, g ro w th , d is trib u tio n , o r s tr u c tu r e " , o r th e even more
re s tric te d view of p o pulation policy a s family p la n n in g p ro
grammes d esig n ed to le sse n ra te s of population in c re a se in low
income c o u n trie s. T he g en eral accep tan ce of th is view has
been followed b y th e adoption of population policies in a
num ber of c o u n trie s which form erly re je c te d them (T able 5.2
and F ig u re 5 .1 ) .
T h ird ly , th e C hief S cientific A d v is e r's memorandum also
ind icates q u ite clearly th a t many fe a tu re s of national life
reg u la rly in v e stig a te d by g e o g ra p h e rs a re c e n tra l to th e
con sid eratio n of governm ent population p o licy. T h is c h a p te r
exam ines th e evolution and c o n cern s of re c e n t B ritish p o p u
lation policy an d some of th e re s e a rc h u n d e rta k e n following
th e g o v ern m en t's recognition th a t th e specification o f policy is
a complex and d ifficu lt m a tte r. T h e n , th e c o n trib u tio n of
g e o g ra p h e rs to th e a n aly sis of th e com ponents of population
policy is d isc u sse d w ith re fe re n c e to w ork done in both
B ritain an d in o th e r c o u n trie s.
F igure 5.2 p ro v id e s a schem atic fram ew ork lin k in g
policy, th e o ry , and d ata collection via th e rela te d a c tiv itie s o f
problem id e n tific a tio n , le g isla tio n , im plem entation, a n d moni
to rin g and ev alu atio n . National population policies b rin g
to g e th e r views on th e problem s of a n ation and th e d e te r
m inants of th o se problem s. T h is invo lv es th e p e rc e p tio n s of
some g ro u p w ithin th e nation as to a set of sig n ifican t
national problem s which can be am eliorated o r elim inated by
governm ent in te rv e n tio n . It also in v o lv es some su p p o sed
u n d e rsta n d in g of se q u en ces of cause an d effect in which
c h a ra c te ristic s of population play an im portant p a r t. T he
American d em ographer Bogue (1974) d is c u ssin g population
program m es with A sian policy m akers in B angkok echoed
Keynes when he rem arked:
"A lthough he usually is not aw are of i t , each time a
family p lan n in g ad m in istra to r makes an im portant
policy decisio n , he is m aking p ra c tic a l use (o r
a b u se) of th e o rie s about hum an b e h a v io u r. A policy
is p ro p o sed action to be ta k e n in o rd e r to cause
people to behave in a p a rtic u la r d e sire d w ay. The
re a so n s which th e a d m in istra to r gives fo r ex p ec tin g
his actions to have th e d e sire d e ffect a re b a sed
upon his b eliefs ab o u t why people b eh av e as th e y
do - in o th e r w o rd s, upon an id en tifiab le and
form ulable th e o ry of human b e h a v io u r." ( p . 82,
B ogue, 1974).
G overnm ent population policies re fle c t th e view s of m em bers of
a governm ent b u t also th e influ en ce of in te rn a l and e x te rn a l
134
Table 5 . 2 : Changes I n th e Commitment t o Family P la n n in g Programmes among
I.ow and Middle Income N a t i o n s , 1972-1982
In dex: World Bank Income Groups:

Degree o f Low Income Lower Middle Income Upper Middle Income
Support 1972 1982 1972 1982 1972 1982
A. V. S tro n g 1(a) 1(a) 0 0 2(b) 2(b)

B. S tro ng 2 2 2 3 1 4
C. Moderate 1 3 7 7 4 3
GOVERNMENT
D. Weak 3 5 6 11 1 2
E. V. Weak 25 21 21 15 6 3
Changed Commitment (Index change 1972-78: + to w ard s A, - tow ards E)

+1 5 11 3
+2 1(c) 0 1(d)
+3 0 0 1(e)
POPULATION
-1 1 1 0
-2 0 1(f) 0
FP C a n c e lle d 2(g) 1(h) l(i)
(a ) C hina, (b) Rep. o f Korea and S in g a p o r e , (c) B an g la d e sh , (d) B r a z i l ,

(e) Mexico, ( f ) C o sta R ic a , (g) Kampuchea (1977) and Lao PDR (1 9 7 6 ),
(h) B o l i v i a (19 7 6 ), ( i ) C h il e (19 7 9 ).
POLICIES
Source: d e r i v e d from World Bank, 1984.
135
136
GOVERNMENT
POPULATION
POLICIES
Fig. 5.1 World map of governm ent family p la n n in g an d population red u ctio n program m es, 1978.
Source: D. Nortman & E . H o f s ta t te r , Population a n d family p la n n in g program m es: A
compendium of data th r o u g h 1978. 10th Edition New York: Population Council, 1980.
p re s s u re g ro u p s (G odw in, 1975). It is p ro b ab ly tr u e to say

th a t in te rn a l p r e s s u r e g ro u p s are most in flu en tia l in in d u s
tria lise d n a tio n s, b u t in te rn a tio n a l ag en cies b o th governm ental
(U nited N ations ag encies and th e World B a n k , fo r in sta n c e )
and n o n -g o v ernm en tal (th e c h u rc h e s , F ord & R ockefeller
Foundations, T he Population C ouncil, e t c .) e x e r t a major
influence on th e p re v a ilin g governm ent population policy in
many less developed c o u n trie s . B ut th e view s of th e se
in te re s t-g ro u p s a re them selves moulded by th e fin d in g s of
rese a rc h and d a ta -g a th e rin g , as well as by political con
sid e ra tio n s. G overnm ents o rg a n ise th e ir own re s e a rc h e n q u ir
ies and sp o n so r th a t of s c h o la rs, th e y also conduct m onitoring
and evaluation s tu d ie s of program m es in th e c o u rse of im ple
m entation. T he work of B ra s s , Caldw ell, Coale and H oover,
B o n g a a rts, E a ste rlin , M abogunje an d T odaro fo r in s ta n c e ,
g re a t c o n trib u to rs to sch o larly re se a rc h on population and its
application to th e p ra c tic a l a ffa irs o f g o v e rn m e n t, feed s from
th is p ro c e ss and feed s in to it. T h eo ries may be divided
betw een th o se which tr e a t a re a s o r th e te n d e n cie s in g re at
subpopulations (c la s s e s , u rb a n d w ellers, th e e d u c a te d , e t c . ) ,
and th o se which a re about in d iv id u al b eh a v io u r and the
facto rs which influence in d iv id u a ls. F e rtility b e h a v io u r and
migration a rise from in d iv id u al d ecisio n s, and many of the
failu res in population program m es have re su lte d from mis
u n d e rsta n d in g of th e lin k betw een p e rso n a l action and what
governm ents may do to in fluence it . T h is e ssa y see k s to
examine com ponents of th e re se a rc h -p o lic y c y c le , r a th e r th an
to p ro v id e e ith e r a d esc rip tio n of c o u n try program m es o r a
more d ire c t account of th e geo g rap h ical co n ce p ts and te c h
niques which might have relev an ce fo r form ulating o r ev alu
a tin g population program m es. H ow ever, it co n siste n tly a rg u e s
th a t w hereas c o n trib u tio n s from o th e r d iscip lin es - demo
g ra p h y , econom ics, an d sociology - h ave em phasised the
facto rs which a re asso ciated with population dynam ics, geo
g ra p h e rs have an in te lle c tu a l re sp o n sib ility to exam ine and
account for th e regional v a ria tio n in th e force of th e se fac to rs
and th e re s u lts o f th e ir o p e ra tio n .
THE UK CASE: THE NATURE AND ORIGIN OF NATIONAL

POPULATION POLICIES
Population T re n d s , th e Royal Commissions, an d th e "Im plicit

Policy"
The UK Select Committee R eport of 1971 (HMSO, 1971) was
the re s u lt of m eetings held to in v e stig a te th e conseq u en ces of
population grow th in th e U nited Kingdom. T he p re v io u s two
to th re e decades h ad been m arked by an u n e x p ec ted s u rg e in
population grow th (OPCS, 1978). T he pop u lation of th e United
Kingdom which was 46.0 million in 1931, h ad grow n to 50.6
million b y 1951 an d 53.0 million b y 1961. T he 1971 ce n su s
137
rec o rd e d a total of 55.7 million (HMSO, 1973, p . 7 5 ). T he two

most re c e n t larg e scale a p p ra isa ls of th e population of th e
U nited Kingdom, th e 1940 Royal Commission on th e D istri
bution of In d u stria l Population (Barlow R e p o rt), and th e 1944
Royal Commission on Population (HMSO, 1949) h ad been
in itia te d in wartime and a f te r a p erio d of co n cern of a d iffe r
en t s o r t. T his was a n x ie ty a b o u t, f i r s t , th e high levels of
unem ploym ent in th e 1920s an d 1930s and its uneven regional
incidence a n d , seco n d ly , th e low level of fe rtility reach ed in
B ritain d u rin g th e same p erio d (G lass, 1936, 1940). W hereas
the exam ination of population d is trib u tio n was followed, in the
postw ar y e a r s , by pow erful and in flu e n tia l legislation - in
p a rtic u la r th e D istrib u tio n of In d u s tr y Act of 1945, and the
Town and C ou n try Planning Act of 1947 (A rm strong and
T a y lo r, 1978), th e Royal Commission re p o rt on population
grow th was o v e rta k e n , as it w ere, by dem ographic e v e n ts .
By th e late 1940s it was clear th e population was grow ing
v ig o ro u sly , and su b s e q u e n t s u rv e y s an d c e n su se s showed th is
to be more th a n an ephem eral p o stw a r baby-boom . T he le g is
lation which em erged much la te r - th e 1967 National Health
(Family P lanning) A ct, an d th e A bortion Act - was a n ti-
na ta list in te n d e n c y , th o u g h b asically hum anitarian in
m otivation. T he im m igration legislation of 1962, 1968
(Commonwealth Im m igrants A cts) and 1971 (Im m igration A ct)
also imposed co n tro ls which limited population in c rea se (Jo n e s,
1977).
B ritish G overnm ent in te r e s t in population change by 1971
was affected by two c o n sid e ra tio n s. F ir s t, by concern about
population grow th in th e world at la rg e and its im plications
for re so u rc e av ailab ility , tra d e and in te rn a tio n a l s ta b ility .
Secondly, b y con cern about th e p o ssib le e ffe c ts of th e rec en t
- and co n tin u in g - population in c re a se a t home. B rita in , like
all o th e r west E uropean c o u n trie s still had low levels of
fe rtility and population grow th b y in te rn a tio n a l s ta n d a rd s (see
Figure 5 .3 ) , o r b y th o se of th e n in e te e n th c e n tu ry , b u t th e re
was an en h an ced aw aren ess o f th e im plications of any b u t
zero grow th (D av ies, 1967). Combined w ith w elfare c o n sid e r
atio n s it re s u lte d in th e em ergence of a r a th e r pow erful se t of
policies which dam pened population grow th v ia b o th n a tu ra l
in c re a se and n e t m ig ratio n . Unlike F ra n c e , w here th e re has
rem ained a s tro n g p re fe re n c e fo r p ro n a ta lis t policy (S p e n g le r,
1938; S au v y , 1974, p p . 277-302; D y e r, 1978; G iscard
D 'E stain g , 1979), th e B ritish governm ent app ro ach to d irec t
in te rv e n tio n to influ en ce fe rtility b e h a v io u r had alw ays been
cau tio u s an d equivocal. In th e late 1930s it was mildly p ro
nata list b u t b y th e late 1960s it had v e e re d to w ard s th e
a n tin a ta lis t. P rio r to th e 1967 family p la n n in g leg isla tio n ,
official su p p o rt for family p lan n in g se rv ic e s was contained
only in an en ab lin g memorandum from th e M inistry of Health
in 1930 which allowed Health a u th o ritie s to p ro v id e inform ation
on b irth co n tro l to m arried couples w ho, on medical g ro u n d s,
138
needed it (Medwar & P y k e, 1971, p p . 5 6 -7 ). A fter th e 1967

National H ealth (Family P lanning) A ct, local a u th o ritie s w ere
empowered to give c o n tra c e p tiv e advice w ithout re g a rd to
m arital s ta tu s , an d fo r social as well a s medical re a so n s. The
1967 A bortion Act legalised ab o rtio n on g ro u n d s o th e r th a n
the p re se rv a tio n of th e woman's life. It re p la c e d , fo r th e f irs t
tim e, th e O ffences A gainst th e P erso n s Act o f 1861 b y which
ab o rtio n , in any c irc u m sta n c es, was a crim e a ttr a c tin g a
maximum p en alty of life im prisonm ent. W hereas th e se A cts
were en a b lin g , th o se in tro d u c e d to in flu en ce in te rn a tio n a l
movements w ere more d ire c tiv e .
In 1962 th e Commonwealth Im m igrants Act in tro d u c e d
employment v o u ch ers and su b se q u e n tly c o u n try q u o ta s , th e
1968 Act of th e same name e x te n d e d th e se re s tric tio n s , and
the 1971 Immigration Act im posed a u n ified system of co n tro l.
A lthough th e re a re s e v e re lim itations ab o u t th e adequacy of
data with which to g auge th e im pact of th is leg isla tio n , T ables
5 .3 , 5.4 and 5.5 show som ething of th e e ffec t of th e se
m easures. The variab le reg io n al re sp o n se to th e availability of
abortion facilities was commented on in th e e a rly y e a rs of
operation of th e new A c t, b u t su b se q u e n t re se a rc h on th is
and on th e availability an d use of th e family p la n n in g facili
ties has te n d e d to focus on national sample s u rv e y data and
social class d iffe re n tia ls to th e exclu sio n of regional v a r i
atio n s. The im m igration legislation h as im posed a tig h t co n tro l
on th e volume and g eographical so u rc e s of new re s id e n ts .
Input measures (resources)

itonagement
Output measures ( a c t iv itie s )
Inpact
EVALUATION MONITORING
Coverage, E ffectiv en ess, E fficien cy
DATA / \
IMPLEMENTATION L e g isla tio n
COLLECTION Resource a llo c a tio n
Censuses Programme
R e g istra tio n P ro je c ts
Surveys
Other sources
\
PROBLEM POLICY
IDENTIFICATION O bjectives
S tra te g ie s
T argets
THEORY '
R elationships
Causes and Consequences
"Knowing which le v e rs to p u ll"
Fig. 5.2 Schematic lin k s betw een re s e a rc h a n d governm ent

policy an d program m es.
139
T a b le 5 . 3 : F am ily P l a n n i n g i n E n g la n d and Wales
a . Methods o f c o n t r a c e p t i o n e v e r - u s e d by women w i t h a
l e g i t i m a t e b i r t h , 19 67 /8 t o 1975. ( P e r c e n t a g e s , from
sam ple s u r v e y s )
Method 1967/8 1970 1973 1975
P ill 28 40 65 74
IUD 3 4 8 13
S h e a th 67 68 69 69
W ith d ra w a l 46 45 45 31
None 7 6 3 1
S o u rc e : C a r t w r i g h t 1976, T a b le 7 . p . 13; C a r t w r i g h t 1978,

T a b le 5, p . 4.
b . Use o f t h e f a m i l y p l a n n i n g s e r v i c e s , 1970 and 1975 ( e v e r -

m a r r i e d women u n d e r 4 1 ) . ( P e r c e n t a g e s from sampl e s u r v e y s )
C a te g o ry 1970 1975
C urrent u s e rs :
GP u s e r 14 19
C lin ic user 9 16
O th e r s e r v i c e 1 2
T o tal c u rre n t 24 37
Past u sers 27 31
T o tal e v e r-u s e rs 51 68
Never u s e r s 43 32
Not known 6 -
T o ta l (surveyed) 100 100
S o u rc e : Bone, 1978, T a b le 2 . 1 , p . 6.
N ote: A lth o u g h t h e w i d e r a v a i l a b i l i t y o f f a m i l y p l a n n i n g
d a t e s from t h e 1967 A c t , s u b s e q u e n t c h a n g e s u n d e r t h e
N a tio n a l H ealth i n th e p r o v i s i o n o f f r e e fa m ily p la n n in g
s e r v i c e s i n c l i n i c s (1974) and by g e n e r a l p r a c t i t i o n e r s
(1975) a r e b e l i e v e d t o be i m p o r t a n t (OPCS, 1978, p . 2 9 ) .
The Select Committee Recommendations

The Select Committee re ach ed th e g en eral conclusion th a t
"T he governm ent m ust act to p re v e n t th e co n seq u en ces of
population grow th becom ing in to lerab le fo r th e e v e ry day
conditions of life ." (1971, p . x ) . T h e ir p rin c ip a l recommen
dation was th e creatio n of a Special Office c h a rg e d with th e
d u ty of ad v isin g th e governm ent on population policy. In
o rd e r to do th is th e Office was to co o rd in ate an d im prove th e
140
A v erag e Annual Population Grow th <%) 1 0 7 0 -8 2
Europe North Pacific _ 5Q Africa Asia Latin

America © America
▲
4.5
- • ▲
- ▲
4.0 — •
©
:
-
3.5 © ©©
- • • ©
- •
- ©©
- ©© © ©
3.0 - © © • • • © • ©© ©
- ©
- © • • ©
- © • • •
- ©© • • • • ©©©
2.5 - ©© ©©©© • ©
- © ©© ©
• ©© ©© • ©
- • © •
- •
2.0 - • • • • • • •
- ©
- ©• © •
1.5 - © ©
• ©
: ■ ©
1.0
0.5
0.0
-J-o.s»-
• Low income economies
® Middle income economies Source: Wor,d Bank- 1984' P P - 254-5
▲ High income oil exporters
■ Industrial market economies and East European non-market economies
Fig. 5 .3 National population grow th 1970-1982, b y c o n tin en t

and World Bank income g r o u p s .
Source: World B a n k , 1984, p p . 2 5 4 - 5 ).
141
T a b le 5 . 4 : A b o r t i o n i n E ngland and Wales
a . L e g a l l y in d u c e d a b o r t i o n s ( r e s i d e n t s ) , E n glan d and Wales

1969-1983 ( t h o u s a n d s )
1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983
50 95 111 106 103 121 129 127
S o u rc e : P o p u l a t i o n T re n d s 3 7 , Autumn 1984, T a b le 23 , p . 50
b . L e g a l l y in d u c e d a b o r t i o n r a t e s ( p e r t h o u s a n d f o r women
aged 1 5 - 4 9 ) , by S t a n d a r d R e g io n s o f E n g lan d and Wales
Region 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973
N o rth 2 .6 3 .8 6 .1 7 .2 7 .8 7 .7
Y o rk s. & Humb. 1 .4 2 .7 4 .8 6 .2 7 .1 7 .7
N o rth West 1 .8 3 .2 5 .0 6 .7 7 .9 8 .3
E a s t M id lan d s 1 .5 2 .5 4 .6 6 .4 7 .4 7 .7
West M id lan d s 2 .0 3 .4 6 .4 8 .2 9 .6 9 .8
E a s t A n g lia 3 .0 3 .9 5.4 8 .1 7 .5 7 .6
South E a s t 4 .5 6 .3 8.9 1 0 .8 12 .6 1 2 .6
South West 2 .2 3 .9 5.9 7 .1 8 .6 8 .3
Wales 2 .4 4 .0 6 .2 7 .9 8 .6 8 .3
E ngland & Wales 2 .9 4 .4 6.7 8 .4 9 .7 9 .8
S o u rc e : R e g i s t r a r G e n e r a l ' s S t a t i s t i c a l Review of E n glan d and

Wales f o r t h e Y e a rs 19 68 -7 3 , S u p p le m e n ts on A b o r t i o n , T a b le
2(b).
stu d y of UK an d world p o pulation tr e n d s an d th e ir co nse

q u e n c e s, and to examine th e im plications fo r population policy
of th e p lan s of th e v a rio u s D epartm en ts of S tate (h o u sin g ,
w ater su p p lie s, food, t r a n s p o r t, fiscal p o licy , em ploym ent,
ed u catio n , h e a lth s e rv ic e s ). T he Committee f u r th e r recommen
ded th a t th e Special Office sh o u ld be d ire c tly resp o n sib le to
th e Prime M inister who, it was s u g g e s te d , should re p o rt
annually to Parliam ent on its w ork.
The Ross Panel an d its Recommendations

As a re sp o n se to th e fin d in g s of th e S elect Committee, th e
G overnm ent esta b lish e d a Population Panel in November 1971
in recognition of th e fact th a t "T he q u estion of w h e th e r o r
not th e G overnm ent should have a population policy o r poli
cies is complex and c o n tro v e rs ia l." (HMSO, 1973:v ii). It had
142
T a b le 5 . 5 : Changes i n t h e Volume o f U n i t e d Kingdom Immi

g r a t i o n by A rea o f O r i g i n 1966-1981
Year I m m i g r a ti o n
A ll C oun tries Old O th e r
Commonwealth(a) Commonwealth(b)
1966 219 36 79
1971 200 52 65
1976 191 40 67
1979 195 31 75
1981 153 20 56
S o u rc e : CSO, 1982, T a b le 1.1 3 , P . 19.

N o te s: ( a ) A u s t r a l i a , C anada, New Z e a l a n d ; (b) r e s t o f t h e
Commonwealth and P a k i s t a n .
th e b rie f "to a s s e s s th e available ev id en ce about th e sig n ifi
cance of population grow th fo r b o th p u b lic a ffa irs an d p riv a te
life in th is c o u n try at p re s e n t an d in p ro s p e c t: to make
recom m endations about th e f u r th e r work re q u ire d , an d how it
should be co nducted" ( p .v i i ) . T he Panel concluded th a t
w hereas th e population of B ritain might in c re a se b y 20% by
the end of th e c e n tu ry o r s h o rtly th e r e a f te r , th is in c re a se
could be accommodated an d was not likely to be a sig n ifican t
co n trib u to ry fa c to r fo r th e major a n tic ip a te d national problem s
of th e p e rio d . T hese problem s w ere e x p e c ted to a rise from
the n ecessity for s tr u c tu r a l ch an g e in in d u s tr y , and a ran g e
of environm ental and social p r e s s u r e s re la te d more to lev els of
u rb a n isa tio n , consum ption, and alienation th a n to fa s te r o r
slower ra te s of population in c re a s e . N o n eth eless, th e Panel
concluded " th a t B ritain would do b e tte r in fu tu re with a
sta tio n a ry r a th e r th a n an in c re a sin g p o p u la tio n ." ( p . 6 ). T his
was based on th e b elief th a t most of th e p ro b lem s, th o u g h not
caused in any major sen se b y population g ro w th , would
probably be e a sie r to solve i f th e population was not grow ing,
and th a t grow th c o n tin u in g in to th e 21st c e n tu ry would make
it in creasin g ly d ifficu lt to accommodate y e t more people at
th a t time. When it came to recom m endations, th e Panel took a
re stra in e d position on th e g ro u n d s t h a t , f ir s t, d ra s tic action
was not re q u ire d , b u t - more sig n ifican tly - also b ecau se
"v ery little is known about th e p o ssib le e ffe c ts o f d iffe re n t
m easures on population grow th" ( p .7 ) . It fe lt able to make
firm recom m endations on m easures to elim inate unw anted
p re g n a n c ie s: more com prehensive family p la n n in g se rv ic e s
within th e National H ealth S e rv ic e , ex p an sio n of population
education fo r th e p u b lic an d th e h ealth p ro fe ssio n s, and th e
elimination of in eq u alities in th e p ro v isio n of a b o rtio n facili
tie s . Beyond th is , th e Panel called fo r more c a re fu l m onitor
ing of population tr e n d s an d stu d y of th e in te ra c tio n of
143
dem ographic an d non-dem o g rap h ic co n d itio n s. In G overnm ent

th is was to be u n d e rta k e n b y a M inister with special
re sp o n sib ility fo r pop u latio n m a tte rs , an d a co o rd in atin g
committee. T h ese w ere to be p ro v id e d w ith inform ation from
an ex p an d ed Office of Population C en su ses a n d S u rv e y s
(O P C S ), from r e c u r r e n t sto c k ta k in g of population m atters
in clu d in g m id-term c e n s u s e s , an d form th e w ork of a new
ce n tre of dem ographic re s e a rc h w ithin a u n iv e rs ity .
Developm ents since 1974

As in d icated e a rlie r, th e Population Panel recom m endations
were made at a time w hen, y e t a g a in , th e re was a major
change in th e pace of B ritish population g ro w th . T his
rem oved much of th e u rg e n c y w ith re s p e c t to in te rn a l policy
co n sid e ra tio n s. An e a rly c a su a lty was th e p ro p o sed 1976
m id-term ce n su s w hen, in th e wake of th e oil p ric e c r is is , th e
governm ent was se e k in g to red u ce e x p e n d itu re . N onetheless,
fo r a sh o rt time th e re was a governm ent m in ister resp o n sib le
fo r co o rd in atin g population m a tte rs, an d in th e O v erseas
Development A dm inistration a Population B ureau was main
ta in e d . T he major developm ents, h o w ev er, w ere not a t the
policy level n o r in term s of fiscal program m es; th ey w ere
broadly inform ational an d in th e su p p ly of se rv ic e s. For
exam ple, th e p ro v isio n of family p lan n in g advice and su p p lie s
became a norm al p a r t of th e pub lic h e a lth se rv ic e provision
following th e 1974 N ational H ealth S ervice re o rg a n isa tio n , and
it h as been reco g n ised th a t th e g re a te r involvem ent o f g en eral
p ra c titio n e rs in p ro v id in g free family p la n n in g ad vice and
su p p lies in addition to th o se available th ro u g h clinics h as lead
to th e use of family p la n n in g m ethods an d se rv ic e s becom ing
"a fact of life fo r th e v a s t m ajority of women" (A llen, 1981,
p . 115). Allen a s s e r ts th a t th is has h ad an im pact on th e level
of fe rtility d u rin g th e 1970s, b u t G reb en ik , who w rote th e
1977 D em ographic Review , is more circu m spect (OPCS, 1978).
The work of Erm isch (1983) s u g g e s ts th e c ritica l fo rce s a re
th e p a rtic ip a tio n ra te s of women in th e la b o u r fo rce an d th e
rela tiv e e a rn in g s of men an d women: c h a n g es in motive a re
th e cru cial p re c e d e n t to adoption of any form o f b ir th
co n tro l. T he D em ographic Review was one of a s e rie s o f new
p ub licatio n s which illu s tra te th e second major outcome o f th e
governm ent review of population policy u n d e rta k e n in th e
early p a rt of th e d ecad e. T h e re h av e been co n tin u in g d ev e l
opm ents in population e d u c a tio n , th e dissem ination o f p o p u
lation inform ation, an d in pop u latio n r e s e a rc h . T he major
co n trib u tio n h a s come from governm ent o rg a n isa tio n s: notably
th e Office of P opulation C en su ses and S u rv e y s , b u t also th e
re se a rc h offices of o th e r governm ent b o d ies. The D epartm ent
of Health and Social S e c u rity , fo r in s ta n c e , m onitored th e
family p lan n in g s e rv ic e s (B one, 1973; 1978) an d th e im pact of
an ag in g population (DHSS, 1981), a n d th e D epartm ent o f th e
144
GOVERNMENT POPULATION PO LICIES
Environment continued to monitor th e d istrib u tio n of popu

lation and employment (DOE, 1971; DOE, 1976). T h ese, and
the publications of th e OPCS - Population P rojections, Popu
lation T re n d s, Social T re n d s, Regional T re n d s, and the
various OPCS Monitors and Social S u rv ey R ep o rts, have been
instrum ental both in raisin g governm ental and public aw are
ness of th e sta te of the n atio n 's population, b u t also provided
an im portant stim ulus to f u r th e r population re se a rc h .
The firs t nationally re p re se n ta tiv e s u rv e y s of b irth
control practice in B ritain were organised b y the Population
Investigation Committee of th e London School of Economics
(G lass, 1 9 7 6 :p .x ). T hese were c a rrie d out in 1959-60 and
1967-68. From 1967 th e Office of Population C ensuses and
Surveys began a se rie s of national sample in v estig atio n s which
have provided information on th is topic. Glass commented in
1976, when five such stu d ies had been c a rrie d o u t, "th e fact
that su rv e y s of th is kind are u n d ertak en by the governm ent
re p re se n ts a strik in g change in B ritish official investigations"
(p .x i) . With the governm ent taking responsibility for national
su rv e y s, Glass identified as areas fo r academic rese arch :
enquiries into the e x ten t of infecu n d ity and s u b -fe c u n d ity ,
the causal connections betw een th e employment of m arried
women and fe rtility , and th e means of e stab lish in g a ttitu d e s
to and expectations of family size. However, it is relevant to
note for th is essay th a t th e L angford/PIC stu d y provided no
information on regional variation. The OPCS Social S urveys
and o th er governm ent stu d ies ten d to focus on socio-economic
differentials and derive th e ir d a ta from national sample
surv ey s which are designed parsim oniously and do not perm it
regional disaggregation (B one, 1978; C a rtw rig h t, 1978; and
Dunnell, 1979). The OPCS Monitors on b ir th s , s tillb irth s ,
death s, ab o rtio n s, said o th e r vital e v e n ts have begun to give
regional breakdow ns, b u t th e ir geographical analysis is a
relatively new developm ent.
Research funding for th e u n iv ersities was an o th er of the
Ross Report recommendations. No single new u n iv e rsity c en tre
has been created b u t fu n d s have been pro v ided d irectly and
via the re se a rc h councils to su p p o rt tra in in g and re se a rc h at
the London School of Economics, in th e C en tre fo r Population
Studies at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medi
cine (set up in 1974), th e David Owen C entre fo r Population
Growth Studies at C ardiff (also se t up in 1974), and the
In stitu te of Population Studies at E x eter. G eographical stu d ies
are not prom inent at any of these c e n tre s . But at Durham
(C ensus R esearch U nit), Newcastle (C en tre fo r U rban and
Regional Development S tu d ie s), Liverpool (A frican Population
Mobility Project) and East Anglia (O verseas Development
G roup), to name ju st a few exam ples, fu n d s have been p ro
vided to g eographers for research and tra in in g in population
geography or population c e n su s-re la ted social and economic
stud ies. One re su lt of th is cooperation betw een th e govern
145
ment and th e u n iv e rsitie s h as b een th e se rie s o f annual

conferen ces o rg a n ise d b y th e B ritish Society of Population
S tu d ies - its e lf a p ro d u c t of th e e a rly 1970s - whose p a p e rs
have b een p u b lish e d b y th e Office of Population C en su ses and
S u rv e y s (OPCS, 1982; OPCS, 1983).
COMPONENTS OF GOVERNMENT POPULATION POLICY AND

SOME STUDIES BY GEOGRAPHERS
A lthough population g e o g ra p h e rs an d o th e r v a rie tie s of geo

g ra p h e r have w ritte n at le n g th ab o u t th e d istrib u tio n and
movement of p o p u latio n , an d have exam ined with con sid erab le
skill and so p h isticatio n th e relatio n sh ip of population to
environm ental an d socio-economic co n d itio n s, th e y have not
often d ire c te d th e ir a tte n tio n s specifically to th e need fo r o r
the n a tu re of population policies, and c e rta in ly not to th e
same e x te n t o r with th e same im pact as dem o g rap h ers and
econom ists. T h e re fo re , in exam ining th e link betw een geo
g ra p h e rs and governm ent population policies two ap p ro ac h es
are ad o p ted . F ir s t, th e link is in te r p r e te d b roadly r a th e r
th a n n arro w ly : it is a r g u e d , I believe with some ju stific a tio n ,
th a t g e o g ra p h e rs have p lay ed a not in sig n ifican t role in
c re a tin g th e climate fo r national population p o licies, in in d i
catin g th e re q u ire d com ponents fo r p o licies, and in exam ining
some of th e possib le im plications of leg islation and th e con
sequ en ces (in te n d e d and u n in te n d e d ) of its ap p lication. The
review below is th e re fo re p re s e n te d in two p a r ts : th e f irs t
d isc u sse s d ire c t stu d ie s of population p o licies, th e second
re f e r s to work not d ire c tly fo cu ssed on specific population
policies b u t which c o n trib u te s to official an d public aw aren ess
of e ith e r th e need fo r policy o r th e co n seq u en ces o f policies.
Secondly, some com parisons a re made with th e re c e n t w ork of
re s e a rc h e rs in o th e r d iscip lin es and th e way th e y have con
trib u te d to th e form ulation as well as th e ev aluation of
national population program m es. T h is p ro v id e s an o p p o rtu n ity
to note re c e n t population re s e a rc h which should be o f in te re s t
to population g e o g ra p h e rs th o u g h not c a rrie d o u t by geo
g ra p h e rs .
Policy S tu d ies: Policies d e sig n e d to a ffect th e ra te of

population grow th
G eograp h ers have not c o n trib u te d to any g re a t e x te n t to th e
form ulation, m onitoring o r evalu atio n of national population
program m es d esig n ed to re d u c e p o pulation grow th (F u lle r,
1984) in s h a rp c o n tra s t to th e volume of th e ir w ork on p ro
grammes a ffe c tin g th e d is trib u tio n an d re d is trib u tio n of
population (F u c h s, 1984). O th e r social sc ie n tists - notably
dem o g rap h ers, econom ists, an d p u b lic h e alth sp e c ia lists -
have been active in in v e s tig a tin g an d in flu en cin g population
146
red u ctio n policies (B ulatao an d L ee, 1983; E a ste rlin , 1981;

Intern atio n al S ta tistic a l I n s titu te , 1981; S irag eld in e t a l .,
1983; UN, 1973; Wolfson, 1978; World B an k , 1974, 1984). The
argum ents of political s c ie n tists have also fig u re d prom inently
in th e deb ate about th e relev an ce of b ir th co n tro l program m es
(Mamdani, 1972; Warwick, 1982). H a rv e y 's p a p e r o f 1974 is
one of th e few c o n trib u tio n s b y g e o g ra p h e rs to th is c ritic al
discu ssio n . It is co n d u cted at a high level o f a b stra c tio n b u t
reach es conclusions b ro ad ly c o n siste n t w ith th e p o in t of view
adopted by many of th e d eveloping c o u n trie s a t th e B u c h a re st
World Population C onference (M auldin e t_a l . , 1974), namely
th a t th e su p p o sed problem of population was in fact one of
th e o rg an isatio n of th e economy a n d th e disp o sal of
re so u rc e s. In te re s tin g ly , p ra c tic e in many of th e se n a tio n s,
and p a rtic u la rly in C hina, since 1974 h a s modified th e in te r
p retatio n of th is position sig n ific a n tly : ra p id population
grow th is now seen a s som ething to be co n tro lled b e ca u se of
its im plications fo r n atio n al, social an d economic developm ent,
bu t also in o rd e r to im prove th e h ealth of m others and ch il
dren (World B ank, 1984).
Family Planning and A bortion

B laikie's book on family p la n n in g in Ind ia (B laikie, 1975) is
the most ex te n siv e tre a tm e n t of a g overnm ent b irth control
programme available from a g e o g ra p h e r. It is a stra n g e
reflection on th e re tic e n c e of g e o g ra p h e rs th a t th e rec e n t
review of population g eo g rap h y in India b y Ghosal (C lark e,
1984) b arely m entions th e family p lan n in g program m e of India.
B laikie's stu d y p ro v id ed a v ig o ro u s c ritiq u e of many a sp e c ts
of th e management of th e Indian program m es o f th e late 1960s
and early 1970s to g e th e r w ith c le a r an d num erous recommen
dations for im provem ent. T h ese m essages were d e riv e d from
an an aly sis of detailed field in v e s tig a tio n s , in n o v ativ e c a rto
grap h ic p re se n ta tio n and s ta tis tic a l in v e stig a tio n . T he th e o r
etical u n d e rp in n in g was sp a tia l d iffu sio n , b u t th e conclusions
em phasised th e need fo r geo g rap h ical an d c u ltu ra l sp ecificity
and se n sitiv ity in program m e im plem entation. In th is in sta n c e ,
the geographical p e rs p e c tiv e may h av e o b sc u re d - fo r p r a c ti
cal p u rp o se s - th e policy and program m e relev an ce in so fa r as
th e family p lan n in g se rv ic e was b ein g u s e d as th e case w ith
which diffusion th e o ry was b ein g in v e s tig a te d . T he effect of
the 1975-76 em ergency on th e pop u latio n program m e of India
(G w atkin, 1979) also s e rv e d to le sse n i ts chance of h av in g an
impact on program m e d e sig n . D espite th e excellence of its
an a ly sis, th e stu d y h as not receiv ed th e a tte n tio n it w a rra n ts
from those who d e sig n , implement an d e v a lu a te program m es in
India (D yson an d C rook, 1984). N ortm an's com parison of
national developm ent p lan ta r g e ts an d achievem ents (F ig u re
5.4 ) d em o n strates th e co n tin u in g n eed fo r re s e a rc h into
fe rtility d eterm in an ts in India. Gwatkin drew a tte n tio n to th e
147
p ro b ab le significance of d ista n c e from Delhi as a fa c to r in

exp lain in g th e d iffe re n tia l im pact of th e d riv e fo r more e ffe c
tiv e b ir th co n tro l d u rin g th e em erg en cy . More re c e n tly , th e
S tate c o n tra s ts in fe rtility level h av e in v ite d speculation and
ex p lan atio n . D espite it s com parative p o v e rty K erala h as
reach ed th e low est c ru d e b ir th ra te (P re sto n and B h a t,
1984), an d th is h as b een a ttr ib u te d to th e combined effe ct of
g en eral im provem ents in h e a lth an d e d u catio n an d r e d is tr i
b u tiv e policies (Z ach ariah a n d K u ru p , 1982). T he role of
diffu sio n , th e e x iste n c e of u rb a n b ia s , and th e im pact of
d ista n c e on accep tan ce an d u se a re r e c u r r in g them es in th e
small amount of w ork b y g e o g ra p h e rs on b o th family plan n in g
and ab o rtio n facilities (C ow ard, 1978; F u lle r, 1973; H en ry ,
1978, 1982; Jo n e s, 1977). As n o ted in th e UK case s tu d y ,
national sample in v e stig a tio n s of se rv ic e availability and
accessib ility have been an outcome of B ritish population
policy, b u t th e re have b een re la tiv e ly few com parative and
regional s tu d ie s (M oseley, 1979; B entham , 1984). T he in te r
national significance of a b o rtio n , fo r in s ta n c e , as a com ponent
of population c o n tro l, an d th e regional v a ria tio n s in b o th its
o cc u rre n ce and ac c e p tab ility to g o v ern m en ts has been docu
m ented o v e r th e y e a rs b y T ietze (1983) b u t th e re has been
little in th e way of regio n al cau sal a n a ly sis. As a second
exam ple, th e re c e n t work of Page an d L esthaeghe (1981);
L esthaeghe (1984); B o n g a a rts et a l. (1984), on c h ild -sp a c in g
in A frica d em o n strates clearly th e need for dem ographically
inform ed stu d ie s of th e c u ltu ra l d iv e rs ity e v en w ithin n a tio n s,
and how governm ent population policies m ust be re sp o n siv e to
th e se v a ria tio n s an d th e ir sometimes ra p id m odification, as in
th e case of lactation p ra c tic e s an d th e o p eratio n o f custom ary
taboos on p o st-p a rtu m a b s tin e n c e . T hese s tu d ie s in d ica te the
need for new em phases in e x is tin g p rogram m es, and th e
possib le c o n s tra in ts on e ffic ie n cy , b u t th e re a re r a th e r few of
them b y g e o g ra p h e rs . T h is is d e sp ite a recognition among
n o n -g e o g ra p h e r r e s e a r c h e r s of b o th th e problem s a n d p o te n
tial value of a real in v e stig a tio n (D uncan et__a l . , 1961;
Hermalin, 1975), an d th e u se fu ln e ss of com parative stu d ie s
(Watson and Lapham, 1975).
M ortality
T here h a v e , if a n y th in g , been ev en few er geographical
stu d ies of th e m ortality com ponent of national population
policies. Most developm ent policies in T h ird World c o u n trie s
will have e ith e r an exp licit statem ent of th e ir in te r e s t in
re d u c in g m ortality , especially in fa n t an d child m o rtality , o r
th is in ten tio n will be subsum ed b y th e program m es fo r h e a lth ,
n u tritio n and w ater. T anzania, fo r exam ple, s h o rtly a fte r
independence in 1961 in clu d ed in its f ir s t five y e a r p lan a
ta rg e t to in c re a se th e exp ectatio n of life from th e th en
c u rre n t 35/40 y e a rs to 50 y e a rs by 1980 (T hom as, 1972).
148
Crude
Birth
Rate
Year
Fig. 5.4 T re n d of c ru d e b ir th ra te in India 1962-82 and th e
ta r g e ts in su c c e ssiv e fiv e -y e a r developm ent p la n s.
Source: D .L . N ortm an, 'In d ia 's new b ir th ra te
ta r g e t: An a n a ly s is ', P opulation and Development
Review , 4.2 (J u n e , 1978), p . 281. The 1982 c ru d e
b irth r a te estim ate is from World B an k , 1984,
p . 254).
Recently (T an zan ia, 1981) th e governm ent h a s re -a ffirm ed

th is commitment an d se t th e ta r g e t fo r th e e n d of th e c e n tu ry
at 55 y e a rs . C u rso n (1984, p p . 95-6) h a s rig h tly draw n a tte n
tion to th e tech n ical problem s o f r e s e a rc h on th e sp atial
p a tte rn in g of m o rtality , h ealth and d ise a se , b u t th e se a re no
more in tra c ta b le th a n th e problem s faced b y d em o g rap h ers in
collecting and an aly sin g m ortality d a ta in d eveloping c o u n trie s
(K pedekpo, 1981), and p e r s is te n t e ffo rt in th is d irec tio n h a s
been rich ly rew ard ed (P re sto n an d B e n n e tt, 1983; UN, 1983).
The m ethods developed a re now b ein g applied to id e n tify
regional and social d iffe re n tia ls , an d to re fin e population
ta rg e ts and im prove social w elfare program m es (F le g g , 1982;
Haines and A v ery , 1982; H obcraft e t a l. , 1984; M artin e t a l. ,
1983). The geog rap h ical lite r a tu r e on social p ro v isio n h as
beg u n to inclu d e in te rn a tio n a l s tu d ie s o f th e sp atial in
equ alities of h ealth care system s an d th e dem ographic in d i
149
c ato rs - in clu d in g m ortality m easures - with which su c c e ss

may be ju d g ed (T hom as, 1983; P ro th e ro and G ould, 1984;
Phillips an d Jo se p h , 1984). In d eveloping c o u n trie s th e ra p id
change in m ortality h as been a major immediate c au se of th e
high ra te of overall population in c re a s e , and it is one o f the
dilemmas which governm ent policy m akers in th o se c o u n trie s
face: while try in g to re d u c e th e ra te of population in c re a se
th e y a re also seek in g to re d u c e m ortality.
S tu d ies of reg io n al, social an d c a u se -sp e c ific m ortality
d iffe re n tia ls in developed c o u n trie s a re more common (fo r
some UK an d A u stralian exam ples see: C h ilv e rs, 1978; Howe,
1970, 1979; M cCracken, 1981; M cGlashan, 1977; Wilson, 1979),
b u t th ey re la te more closely to h ealth and environm ental
policies an d program m es th a n d ire c tly to population
program m es. T he re c e n t co n cern in B ritain about v ario u s
forms of in fa n t m o rtality , an d in th e USSR about th e tr e n d in
in fa n t d e a th ra te s a re p e rh a p s e x cep tio n s (F e stb a c h , 1984).
Population Composition: some co n seq u en ces of policies and

tre n d s
An in te re s tin g su b ject a re a w hich, in B ritain a t le a s t,
involves both th e e ffe c ts of n a tu ra l in c re a se and th e re s u lts
of selectiv e m igration, is th e c o n cen tratio n of eld e rly people
in p a rtic u la r a re a s of th e c o u n try . T h is is clearly of d ire c t
concern fo r social policy in g e n e ra l, and fo r a re a h ealth and
local a u th o rity p la n n in g in p a rtic u la r (W arnes, 1982; W arnes
and Law, 1984). A second exam ple, also from B rita in , is the
political an d social im plications of th e selective immigration
policy and its e ffect on b o th population grow th and eth n ic
concen tratio n and se g re g a tio n (P e a c h , 1968; A nw ar, 1979).
Policy S tu d ies: Policies d e sig n ed to a ffect population

d istrib u tio n an d re d is trib u tio n
G eograp h ers have made a much g r e a te r co n trib u tio n to
deb ates on th e whole ra n g e of policies an d program m es which
may be d e sc rib e d g en erally a s d is trib u tio n , re d is trib u tio n and
m igration policies. T h is applies to b o th developed a n d d ev el
oping n atio n s. No attem p t is made h e re to p ro v id e a sy stem
atic review even of th e w ork on population re d is trib u tio n and
im m igration in B rita in . T h ere have b een se v e ra l re c e n t
review s of m igration th e o ry b y g e o g ra p h e rs (White and
Woods, 1980; Jo n e s , 1981; Woods, 1982), and th e se and
o th e rs have also exam ined re d istrib u tio n policies (M abogunje,
1981; G ilb ert, 1982; F u c h s, 1984). None have attem p ted the
com prehensive th e o risin g of Z elinsky (1971) who form ulated a
mobility tra n sitio n th e o ry to p arallel th a t of th e dem ographic
tra n s itio n . The c ritiq u e of th e la tte r b u ilt up o v e r n e arly
fo rty y e a rs b y d em o g rap h ers, econom ists an d sociologists has
150
had a m assive im pact upon th e th in k in g of aid agen cies and

govern m en ts, and still in s p ire s b asic a n d applied re se a rc h
(Caldw ell, 1982), b u t th e work of g e o g ra p h e rs on r e d is tr i
b ution an d m igration - th o u g h in flu e n tia l - h a s been more
fragm ented. In th e la st few y e a r s , a s e rie s of sym posia
o rg an ised b y th e Population G eography Commission of th e
In tern atio n al G eographical Union h a s b een d ev oted to p o p u
lation re d is trib u tio n s of all s o rts (C lark e and Kawabi, 1980;
Webb e t a l. , 1981; C larke an d K osinski, 1982; C larke e t a l. ,
forthcom ing; K osinski an d E lahi, fo rth co m in g ). Since p o p u
lation d istrib u tio n policy is as much ab o u t program m es for
are a s as it is about people (W ander, 1969), se v e ra l compi
lations on regional developm ent policy an d p la n n in g o v e rse as
have in clu d ed d iscu ssio n of a g ric u ltu ra l resettlem en t and
o th e r forms of r u r a l- r u r a l m igration, r u r a l-u rb a n m igration,
in tr a - u r b a n relo catio n s, g row th c e n tre and seco n d ary city
policies, an d c o u n te r-u rb a n isa tio n (R ondinelli and R uddle,
1978; S to h r an d T ay lo r, 1981; G ilbert an d G u g ler, 1982; Lea
and C h a u d h ri, 1983). Similar top ics have been in clu d ed in th e
work on ru ra l g eo g rap h y an d on u rb a n an d regional develop
ment in B ritain (G oddard an d Cham pion, 1983; H ouse, 1982;
Pacione, 1983). T he d iv id in g line betw een population geo
g ra p h y and v a rio u s o th e r su b -d isc ip lin e s b o th w ithin geo
g ra p h y and in o th e r social scien ces becomes b lu rre d a t th is
p o in t. T h is is to be ex p e c te d when dealin g with policy issu e s:
an in itial focus on settlem ent p o licy , h e a lth , tr a n s p o r t, a g ri
c u ltu re , u rb a n developm ent, e t c . , will lead to con sid eratio n of
population dynam ics. E qually, a s ta r tin g point with population
d istrib u tio n o r movement will in ev itab ly lead to th e se cognate
su b je c ts. T his is th e im plication of th e view of population
policy which em erged a f te r th e B u c h a re st C on feren ce. T his
com prehensiveness h as lead some a n a ly s ts (G ilb e rt, 1982, is a
recen t exam ple) to su g g e s t th a t m igration policies will succeed
only when whole social an d economic system s a re re d e sig n e d .
E arlier, B e rry (1973) h ad a rg u e d th a t th e only s ta te s in
which m igration con tro l policies w ork a re a u th o rita ria n : he
had in mind th e Republic of S outh A frica a n d Isra e l. G ilbert
tak e s as his exam ples T anzania and C hina. No d o u b t d eb ates
at th e level of g ra n d political th e o ry will c o n tin u e, b u t th e re
is still a need fo r detailed in v e stig a tio n of th e association of
specific legislation o r in stitu tio n a l a rra n g e m en ts an d th e ra te ,
composition an d d irectio n of m igration. As an exam ple, th e re
has been u sefu l w ork on th e relatio n o f edu catio n policy and
m igration (B arnum an d S abot, 1976; B ell, 1980), d raw ing on
the con cep ts of place u tility (W olpert, 1965) a n d e x p ected
income d iffe re n tia ls (Rempel a n d T o d aro , 1972). Bell, w orking
in U ganda, h as d em o n strated th e im portance of early
m igratory e x p e rie n c e , much of it re s u ltin g from a school
placem ents policy, on s u b se q u e n t p lace u tilitie s. S a b o t's work
in T anzania lead him to conclude th a t th e co n ten t o f ru r a l
education en co u rag ed u n re a listic income e x p e c ta tio n s and
151
stim ulated m igration to th e u rb a n a re a s , b u t th a t economic

policies as well as curricu lu m reform w ere now n eeded to stem
th e flow.
T he ra n g e of w ork on A frica b y g e o g ra p h e rs p ro v id es an
o p p o rtu n ity to illu s tra te th e ty p e s of d is trib u tio n an d r e d is
trib u tio n policies. Adepoju (1982) n o tes fo u r policy ty p e s :
ru ra l developm ent, resettlem en t schem es, y o u th program m es,
and grow th p o le s/a d m in istra tiv e d e c e n tra lis a tio n . If we a d d to
th e se th e ty p e s of program m es d ev ised to dead with unem ploy
ment in T h ird World cities o r th e su p p o se d problem of e x c e ss
ive r u r a l to u rb a n m igration (T o d a ro , 1976; G ilb ert, 1982;
World B an k , 1984), an d ad d to th e specifically r u r a l and
u rb a n a re a policies th o se w ith a national scope which aim to
a lte r th e in te rn a l term s of tra d e betw een r u ra l and u rb a n
a re a s, th e ra n g e of p o lic y -re la ted s u b je c ts becomes wide
(T able 5 .6 ) , an d y e t many of them h av e b een th e su b jec t of
geographical e n q u iry a s th e illu s tra tiv e re fe re n c e s in th e
table d em o n strate.
T he o b jectiv es of th e se program m es may be id e n tifie d as:
1. to en co u rag e an ad e q u a te su p p ly of wage lab o u r at p a r
tic u la r locations (ru r a l o r u r b a n ) ;
2. to p re v e n t people leav in g r u r a l re g io n s - r u r a l a re a s and
small tow ns;
3. to e n co u rag e a g ric u ltu ra l a re a e x te n sio n (th e s p re a d o f
se ttle m e n t);
4. to in c re a se a g ric u ltu ra l p ro d u c tiv ity (b y in te n sificatio n
of u se o r by m echanisation);
5. to free land fo r o th e r u se s - r u r a l ( f o re s ts , game,
re s e rv o irs , la rg e -sc a le a g ric u ltu ra l p ro d u c tio n , m ining)
an d u rb a n ( s q u a tte r re se ttle m e n t fo r com m ercial/residen
tia l/in d u s tr ia l/tr a n s p o r t d e v e lo p m e n t);
6. to p re v e n t people e n te rin g tow ns;
7. to p re v e n t people s ta y in g in tow ns;
8. to p ro v id e em ploym ent/housing e tc . in tow ns (th e re b y
e n co u rag in g m ig ratio n ); and
9. to p ro d u ce a su p p o sed ly more efficien t settlem en t p a tte r n
(ju d g ed b y econom ic-spatial, o r political c rite ria - b o th
ad m in istrativ e an d c o n tro l).
U nderlying th e objectiv es an d th e chosen means a re th o se
"th eo ries" to which Bogue r e f e r r e d , in th is case: th e o rie s of
cap italist developm ent, th e o rie s of sp a tia l effic ien cy , m icro-
economic th e o rie s o f in d iv id u al re sp o n se to in c e n tiv e s , th e o r
ies of search b e h a v io u r, an d th e o rie s of social b e h av io u r and
co n tro l. Weiner (1975) h a s exp o sed some of th e assum ptions
and p u rp o se s b eh in d governm ent m igration policies a n d , in
p a rtic u la r, draw n a tte n tio n to th e p o ssib le relu c ta n c e of
governm ents to a c c e p t, o r a t le a st make p u b lic , th e demo
grap h ic in te n tio n s of a p p a re n tly u n re la te d le g islatio n , fo r
example land u se zoning d esig n ed to p ro d u c e e th n ic s e g re
gation.
152
As in d ic a te d e a rlie r, g e o g ra p h e rs have d em o n strated th e

need fo r policies b y d e sc rib in g pop u latio n d istrib u tio n and
population c h a ra c te ris tic s b u t also b y re la tin g th e conditions
of th e population to environm ental an d socio-econom ic con
d itio n s. T hey have d e sc rib e d c a u se s o f m ovem ents, th e
c h a ra c te ris tic s of movement an d th e selectiv e n a tu re of
m igration. T hey have d e sc rib e d th e co n seq u en ces o f movement
for th e in d iv id u als inv o lv ed an d fo r th e so cieties le ft b eh in d
and th o se a t th e d e stin a tio n . In th e s e w ays th e y have c o n tri
b u te d to th e form ulation and ev alu atio n o f re d is trib u tiv e
policies and program m es to an e x te n t w hich is unm atched in
o th e r a re a s of population policy.
G eographical S tu d ies which in d ire c tly b e a r upon policy.

Regional s tu d ie s an d a tla se s
In a le ss tan g ib le fa sh io n , n uch of th e geographical lite ra tu re
which is not d ire c tly a d d re s s in g its e lf to policy form ulation
and evaluation n o n eth eless c o n trib u te s to p u blic aw a re n ess of
population is s u e s . T h is ap p lies p a rtic u la rly to th e su b sta n tiv e
work d e sc rib in g an d a n a ly sin g th e population d istrib u tio n and
composition, m igration, u rb a n isa tio n , an d p o p u la tio n -re so u rc e
relatio n s fo r specific a r e a s , b u t it also ap p lies to many
them atic stu d ie s co n cern ed - among o th e r to pics - with a g ri
c u ltu re , tra n s p o rta tio n , a n d h o u sin g . T h e re is an e m b a rra ss
ment of ric h e s an d only selected exam ples, some o f them now
classics, a re given fo r A frica (B a rb o u r and P ro th e ro , 1961;
Hance, 1970), Asia (C lark e an d F ish e r, 1971; F arm er, 1977;
T re w a rth a , 1965), and Latin America (Jam es, 1950; S an to s,
1979; G ilb e rt, 1982). In B rita in , th e c a rto g ra p h ic work o f
H unt et a l. (1968), Howe (1970), S h e p h e rd (1974), Dewdney
et al. (1980), Champion (1983) an d a whole ran g e o f regional
a n a ly sts of th e decennial c e n s u s e s is illu s tra tiv e o f th is
co n trib u tio n .
Methodological S tu d ies
G eographers have also c o n trib u te d e x te n siv e ly to th e exami
nation of population d ata an d th e m ethods fo r its collection
and tab u latio n (D enham , 1980; N ag, 1984; Rees an d Wilson,
1977; R h in d , 1983). W hereas th is may not seem d ire c tly
related to governm ent population p rogram m es, th e p r e s s u r e
for th e collection of c e rta in ty p e s o f inform ation and th e
public availability of d a ta a re o fte n closely co n n ected w ith th e
form ulation of social an d economic policy an d program m es. It
also perm its th e evalu atio n of th e im pact o f policies. Geo
g ra p h e rs in B ritain have fig u re d prom in ently in th e d e b a te s
about m igration and e th n ic q u e stio n s in th e c e n su se s and
have c o n trib u te d to th e developm ent of te c h n iq u e s fo r u sin g
g rid -s q u a re and p o stco d e-lo cated in form ation. T h e ir w ork on
em ploym ent, th e availab ility of h o usehold am enities, and
153
T a b le 5 .6 : A C l a s s i f i c a t i o n o f I n t e r n a l M ig ra tio n and R e d i s t r i b u t i v e
Programmes w ith S e le c te d Exam ples from A f ric a
Area In te n d e d E f f e c t on Movement:
Focus A. I n c r e a s e / F a c i l i t a t e B. D im in is h /E lim in a te
I . R u ral
1. F r o n t i e r s e ttle m e n t 1. R u ra l developm ent
- r i v e r b a s in - a g r i c u l t u r a l p ro d u c tio n
- c ro p la n d e x te n s io n - r u r a l p ro d u c tio n I n f r a s t r u c t u r e
( E a s te r n A f r i c a : A lla n , 1965; - ru ra l s o c ia l In fra s tru c tu re
M cM aster, 1961; E g ero , 1974) - r u r a l employment
2. Labour m ig r a tio n 2. I n t e g r a t e d r e g io n a l developm ent
- d i r e c t : q u o ta s programmes
r e c r u itm e n t (T o d a ro , 1971; M abogunje &
- i n d i r e c t : p o l l /h e a d ta x F a n ir a n , 1977; B elshaw , 1982,
e d u c a tio n B enneh, 1984)
(S o u th e rn A f r ic a : P r o th e r o , 1974;
Colem an, 1979; S w in d e ll, 1979)
3. A g ric u ltu ra l re s e ttle m e n t
- la n d refo rm
- I r r i g a t i o n schem es (and
re s e rv o irs )
- r i v e r b a s in schem es
- r e s e ttlin g re se rv e s
- d is e a s e -re la te d
- c re a tio n o f re so u rc e re se rv e s
( f o r e s t , game)
(Kenya: O dlngo, 1971; Sudan: D avies
1964, K h o g a ll, 1982; Uganda: K abera
1982)
4. V illa g is a tlo n
( A lg e r ia : S u tto n & L a w le ss, 1978;
B otsw ana: S i l i t s h e n a , 1982;
T a n z a n ia : Maro & M lay, 1982;
Thomas, 1982)
I I Urban
1. L abour r e c r u i t m e n t /j o b c r e a t i o n 1. I n - m ig r a tio n c o n tr o l
2. Urban h o u sin g p r o v is io n d i r e c t : p a s s law
3. New C a p i t a l s work p e rm it schem es
4. S econdary to w n s/g ro w th c e n t r e s c a s h g u a r a n te e s u n t i l
- employment d e c o n c e n tr a tio n employment
- s o c i a l s e r v ic e d i s t r i b u t i o n I n d i r e c t : r a t i o n c a r d s ( fo o d /
- In d u s tr ia l d is p e rs a l c lo th e s )
- a d m in is tra tiv e d is p e r s a l h o u sin g c o n t r o l s
5. " S e rv ic e c e n t r e “ r e s e t tl e m e n t (S o u th e rn A f r ic a : F a ir & D a v is ,
6. R e p a t r ia t e u rb a n unem ployed 1976; S m ith , 1982)
(West A f r ic a : A d e ju y ig b e , 1970;
K u d ia b o r, 1977; M abogunje, 1978;
E a s te r n A f r i c a : F u n n e ll, 1976;
D a v ie s, 1981; H o y le, 1979; and
g e n e r a l : T odaro 1976; O 'C o n n o r, 1983)
154
GOVERNMENT PO PU L A T IO N PO L IC IE S
III National
1. Disaster responses 1. Moral exhortation:
- relocate population Education, political
- refugee reception 2. Fiscal:
2. International migrants - remove factor-price
- encourage (recruitment, subsides) distortions
- repatriate - wage subsidies
(W. Africa: Pell, 1971; Uganda: - income policies
Twaddle, 1975; refugees: Rogge, 3. Immigration & emigration
1982) restriction
- direct: visa restrictions
- indirect: foreign exchange
restrictions
4. Disaster responses
- flood control
- rural food storage & free
distribution
- food for work programmes
(Tanzania: Sabot, 1979; McCall
198 ; general: Todaro, 1971;
Abbo, 1982)
com m uter c a tc h m e n ts , to nam e b u t a few , h a v e b e e n i n s t r u

m ental in b o th k e e p in g q u e s tio n s in th e n a tio n a l c e n s u s e s a n d
m onitoring th e e ffe c ts o f social p o lic ie s. Work else w h e re b y
p o p u la tio n g e o g ra p h e rs h a s also b een in co o p eratio n w ith
c e n s u s o rg a n isa tio n s to e n s u r e a d e q u a te d a ta collection a n d
p r e s e n ta tio n , a n d h a s d e m o n stra te d th e c o n tin u e d e x is te n c e of
reg io n al d is p a ritie s w hich w a rra n t new g o v e rn m en t in itia tiv e s
o r th e m odification of e x is tin g pro g ram m es w h ere th e s e a re
failin g to a ch iev e th e ir t a r g e t s .
CONCLUSION
G o vernm ents in b o th th e d e v elo p ed a n d d ev elo p in g c o u n trie s

hav e ta k e n more e x p lic it a c c o u n t of p o p u latio n c h a n g e d u rin g
th e la st two d e c a d e s . In b o th ty p e s of a re a c o n c e rn h a s b een
e x p r e s s e d ab o u t p o p u latio n g ro w th a n d p o p u la tio n d is tr i
b u tio n , a lth o u g h th e o rig in o f th a t c o n c e rn a n d th e re s p o n s e s
d iffe r w ith n atio n al c irc u m s ta n c e s . When th e elu c id a tio n o f
p o p u la tio n p olicies h a s b e e n followed b y leg isla tio n a n d th e
c re a tio n of pro g ram m es d e s ig n e d to im plem ent policy - as w ith
family p la n n in g a n d p o p u la tio n r e d is tr ib u tio n program m es -
th e outcom e h a s o fte n b e e n d is a p p o in tin g . Social s c ie n tis ts
h av e b e e n a c tiv e in d e s c rib in g th e s e in te r v e n tio n s a n d s e e k
in g to e x p la in th e v a r y in g d e g re e s o f im p ac t. G e o g ra p h e rs
h av e c o n trib u te d to p olicy re la te d s tu d ie s o f d is trib u tio n and
m ig ra tio n , b u t m uch le s s to th o se c o n c e rn e d w ith r a te s o f
n a tu ra l c h a n g e . T h e re a re o p p o rtu n itie s h e re fo r u se fu l
co m p arativ e a n a ly tic a l w o rk , p a rtic u la rly a s g o v e rn m e n ts seek
in c re a s in g ly to u n d e r s ta n d in tr a - n a tio n a l v a ria tio n s o r elim in
ate reg io n al in e q u a litie s . In a d d itio n , a f u r th e r developm ent
155
of national population policy d u rin g th e p a s t decade has been

g re a te r a tte n tio n to th e in te rre la tio n of p o pulation d istrib u tio n
and change with g e n e ra l social, economic and environm ental
conditions and p ro c e s s e s . T h is is much clo ser to th e t r a
ditional c o n cern s of g e o g ra p h e rs who have a re sp o n sib ility to
dem onstrate th e v alue of th e ir a p p ro a c h .
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th e ir Im plem entation in E ight D eveloping C o u n trie s.
C am bridge: C am bridge U niv. P re ss
Watson, W.B. & Lapham, R .J . ( e d s .) (1975) 'Family Planning
Program m es: World Review 1974', S tu d ie s in Family
P la n n in g , 6 , 8 ( A u g u s t), p p . 205-322
Webbl J.W . N a u k k a rin e n , A. an d K osinski, L .A . ( e d s .)
(1981) Policies of Population R e d is trib u tio n . O ulu: Geo-
g rap h ical Society of N o rth ern Finland
White, P. and Woods, R. ( e d s .) (1980) T he G eographical
Impact of M igration. London: Longman
Wilson, M .G .A . (1979) 'In fa n t D eath in M etropolitan A u stralia
1970-1973', C anadian S tu d ies in P opulation, 6 , p p .
127-44
Wolfson, M. (1978) C h anging A pproaches to Population P ro b
lem s. P a ris: OECD
W olpert, J . (1965) 'B eh av io u ral A sp ects of th e Decision to
M igrate', P a p e rs of th e Regional Science A ssociation, 15,
p p . 159-6&
Woods, R. (1982) T h eo retical Population G e o g rap h y , London:
Longmans
World Bank (1974) Population Policies a n d Economic Develop
ment , A World Bank S ta ff R e p o rt. Baltim ore: Jo hns
H opkins U niv. P re ss (fo r th e World B ank)
World Bank (1984) World Development R eport 1984. New York:
O xford U n iv ersity P re ss
Z achariah, K .C . & K urup R .S . (1982) D eterm inants o f F e r
tility Decline in K e ra la , P ap er d e liv e re d to th e BSPS
C onference on In d ia 's P opulation, O x fo rd , D ecem ber
1982. (see Dyson an d C rook, 1984)
Z elinsky, W. (1971) 'T h e H ypothesis o f th e Mobility T ra n
sitio n ', G eographical R eview , 6 1 , p p . 219-49
165
C h a p te r Six
INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION: A SPATIAL THEORETICAL

APPROACH
J . Salt
INTRODUCTION
The stu d y of m igration h a s become th e c o rn e rsto n e o f th e

geographical in te r e s t in p o p u la tio n , as a w ealth of re se a rc h
te s tifie s . S u rp ris in g ly , re la tiv e ly little of th a t e ffo rt has been
a d d re sse d to in te rn a tio n a l m ovem ent, w ith c e rta in major
ex cep tio n s. Q uite why th is should be so is p u zz lin g , b u t it
can be su g g e ste d th a t it re fle c ts th e re la tiv ely sc a n t a tte n tio n
to in te rn a tio n a l m igration p aid by social sc ie n tists generally
u n til th e la st couple of d ecad es. It is only since about 1970,
with la rg e flows in E urope b ein g p a rtic u la rly in flu e n tia l, th a t
th e su b ject h a s been widely re g a rd e d as a 'p ro b lem '. Even
th e n , p ercep tio n of it as mainly a la b o u r m arket problem has
e n su re d th e dominance of political-econom ic ap p ro ach es to
cau satio n .
U ndoubtedly, a major c o n stra in t in th e stu d y o f in te r
national m igration is th e availab ility of d a ta , most of which
are in a c c u ra te , ir r e g u la r and lack in g in d etail. The d ata
problem is in e x tric a b ly lin k ed w ith th e definition of m igration.
E very b o rd e r c ro ssin g is not autom atically d e sig n a te d a
m igration and b o th th e selected time p erio d for definition and
th e specified list of tr ip ty p e s co n sid e re d as m igrations v a ry
from c o u n try to c o u n try . For re s e a rc h e rs an ideal world
would be one in which d ata are available on all b o rd e r c ro s s
in g s so th a t all possib le ty p e s of movement are re c o rd e d . In
rea lity governm ents collect d a ta only on c e rta in ty p e s of
im m igrants, usually th o se to whom th e y a ttr ib u te some element
of perm anency a n d /o r w here th e re is some in ten tio n to live
and work in th e h o st c o u n try . T he re s u lt is th a t th e ra n g e of
data collected b y s ta te s v a rie s enorm ously and stu d ie s of
in te rn a tio n a l m igration have te n d e d to re fle ct th e d efin itio n s
u se d . In one se n s e , th e n , a d m in istrativ e d ecisions about d a ta
collection have im posed th e ir own form on th e re se a rc h e s
ca rrie d o u t.
In th e p a s t, when fe rtility was high and flows of i n te r
national m ig ran ts w ere re la tiv e ly small elem ents in population
166
IN T E R N A T IO N A L MIGRATION
ch an g e, d ata problem s had le ss dem ographic im portance th a n

th e y do to d a y . Now fe rtility is almost u n iv e rsa lly falling,
while in te rn a tio n a l movements a re fre q u e n tly larg e in a fixed
m atrix of in d e p e n d e n t s ta te s . T he b e h a v io u r of in te rn a tio n a l
population flows can be h ig h ly in flu e n tia l in a c o u n try 's
dem ographic developm ent. A lready in some Middle E a ste rn
co u n tries th e in d ig en o u s population is in a m inority. Even
w here th e scale of flow is small th e q u a lity , especially th e
deg ree of sk ill, may be v e ry im p o rta n t. All s ta te s w ish to
gain high level m anpow er, while th e se d a y s a d ec rea sin g
num ber want u n sk illed w o rk e rs; e v en few er now w ant to
a ttra c t p erm anent s e ttle r s .
The list of p o ten tial ty p e s of b o rd e r c ro ssin g th a t could
be c o n stru e d as in te rn a tio n a l m igration h ig h lig h ts th e n a tu re
of th e definitional dilemma, an d its asso ciated d a ta -g a th e rin g
ex e rc ise , even fo r c o u n trie s with good s ta tistic a l s e rv ic e s .
M igrants may be p erm anent s e ttle r s ; long o r sh o rt term
co n tract w o rk e rs, seasonal o r casual w o rk e rs; th e y may be
legal o r illegal; in c re a sin g ly a tte n tio n is b e in g paid to 't r a n
s ie n ts ', especially sp ecialist w o rk ers tr a n s f e r r e d fo r sh o rt
p erio d s (in clu d in g diplom ats, th o se w orking fo r m ulti-national
o rg a n isa tio n s, and th o se en g ag ed on sp ecific p ro je c ts) b u t
also in clu d in g to u r is ts , businessm en an d s tu d e n ts . In addition
to th ese v o lu n ta ry m ig ran ts a re th o se who have le ss say in
the move, in clu d in g m em bers of th e Armed Forces an d re fu
gees - th e la tte r g ro u p falling in to se v e ra l c a te g o rie s, as will
be seen la te r.
The re a lity today is th a t grow ing in te rd e p e n d e n ce
betw een a larg e num ber of s ta te s o p e ra tin g in a globed econ
omy has led to a w idespread in te rn a tio n a l population mobility
witliin continuum s of time an d sp a c e . T his cannot easily be
accommodated by tra d itio n a l classificatio n s of in te rn a tio n a l
m igration, b ased on a r b itr a r y b re a k p o in ts , which re s u lt in
some ty p e s of movement which a re re g a rd e d a s w orthy of
s tu d y , usually becau se d ata on them a re co llected , an d o th e rs
which a re not.
T h in k in g about in te rn a tio n a l m igration n e e d s, th e re fo re ,
to be in th e co n tex t of a flexible system in which a ra n g e of
ac to rs - m ig ran ts, th e ir fam ilies, th o se left b e h in d , o rig in
and d estin atio n g o vernm ents and p o p u lations - a re active
p a rtic ip a n ts . The role each p lay s d e p e n d s not only on in te r
action with o th e r elem ents in th e sy ste m , b u t on th e o u tsid e
in flu en ces which affect each elem ent in d iv id u a lly . Such a
system will co n seq u en tly have some c h a ra c te ris tic s in common
with o th e r sy stem s, b u t will re sp o n d also to p a rtic u la r local
ev en ts (M abogunje, 1970).
The em pirical n a tu re of much of th e w ork by geo
g ra p h e rs on in te rn a tio n a l m igration makes a review of th a t
work tem p tin g . T his c h a p te r will, h o w ev er, be more con
cern ed with m atters th e o re tic a l, an d p a rtic u la rly w ith an
evaluation of sp atial ap p ro a c h e s to th e d eterm ination of in te r
167
IN T E R N A T IO N A L M IGR ATIO N
national movement. It will su g g e st an an aly tical fram ew ork of

grow ing im po rtan ce, b ased on tw in p illa rs . T he f ir s t is th a t
geographical p a tte r n s of in te rn a tio n a l m igration o c c u r w ithin a
system s fram ew ork an d a re re la te d to complex n e tw o rk s of
in te ra c tio n . T he second is th a t com binations of global and
local fo rces p ro d u ce sp a tia l m igration n e tw o rk s th a t d iffe r
from each o th e r in sc a le , n a tu re an d b e h a v io u r. All th is may
seem elem entary to th e g e o g ra p h e r. H ow ever, a h a rd look at
th e o rie s of cau satio n developed b y o th e r d isc ip lin e s,
especially political econom ics, s u g g e s ts a te n d e n cy to assum e
th e ir u n iv e rsa l a p p lic a b ility . In th e ab sen ce of em pirical
te s tin g in a ra n g e of g eo g rap h ical circu m stan ces su ch assum p
tio n s can lead to m isleading conclusions about how m igration
p a tte rn s have ev o lv ed , a re c u rre n tly fu n c tio n in g , and will
develop. Much of th e c h a p te r will focu s on lab o u r m igrations,
b u t th e an aly sis will be e x te n d e d to in clu d e re fu g e e s as well.
A Spatial A pproach to M igration T heory

The stu d y of in te rn a tio n a l m igration is re p le te with th e o ry ,
and sch o lars from a ra n g e of d iscip lin es have so u g h t g eneral
laws g o v ern in g th e c au ses and co n seq u en ces o f movement.
One re s u lt of th is se a rc h fo r g e n e ra l o rd e r has been a dim in
ish in g aw aren ess of th e g eo g rap h ical v a ria b ility of in te r
national m igration.
In so fa r as th e re is a sp atial th e o re tic a l a p p ro ach to
in te rn a tio n a l m igration, it is b a se d on th e concept of d iv e r
s ity . Economic developm ent is u n e v e n o v e r time an d space
becau se of th e ir r e g u la r d is trib u tio n of raw m aterials and
e n e r g y , agglom erations an d economies of scale in d u c in g co re
p e rip h e ry dichotom ies, u n ev en diffu sio n of technology and
d istrib u tio n of political an d economic p o w er, and th e cyclical
n a tu re of m odern economies. M igration is its e lf a v ariab le
resp o n se to th is sp atial d iv e rs ity in th e m eans of p ro d u c tio n ,
not s u rp ris in g ly ta k in g on a ra n g e of form s m anifest in
cau sa tio n , c h a ra c te r an d im pact.
G eo g rap h ers have tra d itio n a lly re g a rd e d m igration as a
sp atial re-allo catio n of hum an re s o u rc e s . T h e ir a p p ro ach h as
em phasised th e d iv e rs ity of th e p ro c e ss and its e ffe c ts upon
origin and d estin atio n a re a s . M igration is ultim ately stu d ie d as
one element in g e n e ra l reg io n al c h a n g e , th e a p p ro ach both
em pirical an d p rag m atic, re ly in g on w h ate v er d isc ip lin ary
th eo retical fram ew orks a re a p p ro p ria te fo r th e problem u n d e r
co n sid e ra tio n .
At th e core of sp a tia l th e o ry is , of c o u rse , d ista n c e . In
much m igration th e o ry th e d ista n c e concept is c e n tra l and
m acro-analytical models d e riv e d from social p h y sic s have
pro v id ed u se fu l d e sc rip tio n s of complex flow p a tte r n s and
fre q u e n tly in d icated fru itfu l lin es fo r f u r th e r a n a ly sis. G rav
ity and re g re ssio n models, fo r exam ple, have show n how
av erag e d istan ce tra v e lle d b y m ig ran ts can be re la te d to
168
levels of developm ent - th e d ista n c e coefficient in th e g ra v ity

model norm ally d eclining as economic developm ent p ro c e e d s.
R egression models can in d ic a te th e s tr e n g th and a g g re g a te
relatio n sh ip s betw een m igration and o th e r v a ria b le s, b u t th e ir
g re a te s t value is o ften th e in s ig h ts th a t come from a n a ly sis of
th e re sid u a ls from th e models and which can point to o th e r ,
p e rh a p s u n s u s p e c te d , in flu e n c e s. One w eakness o f models
b ased on d istan ce is th e r a th e r neb u lo u s n a tu re of th e con
cep t its e lf, for it can be m easured in d iffe re n t w ays: in term s
of simple mileage, c o s t, time o r in te rv e n in g o p p o rtu n itie s.
In creasin g ly it is realised th a t p e rc e iv e d d istan c e may well be
a more valuable concept th a n lin e a r d ista n c e .
O ver th e la st tw en ty y e a rs p a rtic u la rly , th e re h as been
a move away from models of m igration d e riv e d from social
p h y sics w here m igration is re g a rd e d a s th e outcome of im per
sonal m acroscopic law s, to a more m icroanalytical app ro ach
which seek s to com prehend th e p ro c e sse s involved in c re a tin g
th e spatial p a tte r n . In d iv id u al m igration b e h av io u r is now
re g a rd e d in much geo g rap h ical work as an e x p re ssio n of a
decision-m aking p ro c e ss th a t need not be economically or
spatially ratio n al. C oncepts like d ista n c e decay and in te r
vening o p p o rtu n itie s have become se c o n d ary to th e id e n tifi
cation of specific c a u se s of population and regional change
and to th e in te rre la tio n sh ip s betw een social p ro c e sse s and
individual v a lu e s , p e rc e p tio n s an d p re fe re n c e s (W olpert,
1965).
In b o th th e se a p p ro a c h e s a fundam ental problem is the
geographical scale chosen fo r a n a ly sis. In fa c t, fo r many
m igration s tu d ie s space cannot be re g a rd e d as a continuum ,
movement b ein g re c o rd e d betw een d is c re te sp a tia l u n its a t a
v a rie ty of scales from local to in te rn a tio n a l. Where a d istin c
tion is made betw een in te rn a l and in te rn a tio n a l movement it
re fle c ts th e com partm entalisation of th e world in to nation
s ta te s which in tu r n determ in es th e re c o rd in g of movement.
Hence th e r e can be re la tiv e ly s h o rt d ista n c e movements which
are in tern atio n al an d much lo n g e r o n es th a t do not c ro ss
national b o rd e rs . In th is s tr ic t se n se d ista n ce is o ften ir r e l
evant when co n sid erin g in te rn a tio n a l m ovem ent. In d ee d , most
of th e major fe a tu re s of m igration a re common to b o th in te rn a l
and in te rn a tio n a l movement. Spatial in e q u a litie s can be held to
account fo r movement o v e r any d ista n c e ; betw een a re a s
broadly equ al in levels of liv in g , m igration of hig h ly skilled
people may o r may not be a c ro ss national b o r d e r s . T h ere is
evidence of d istan ce decay a t b o th in te rn a l and in te rn a tio n a l
scales: in th e la tte r c a se , fo r exam ple, th e te n d en c y for
Italians and Y ugoslavians to c o n c e n tra te in so u th e rn G erm any,
A lgerians in M ed iterranean F ra n c e . S electivity p rin c ip le s
o p e ra te , stream s may be se lf-s u p p o rtin g and re v e rs e flows
occur a t all sc a le s. T his means th a t th e main d istin g u ish in g
c h a ra c te ristic o f in te rn a tio n a l m igration is th e political dimen
sion, with re la tio n sh ip s betw een p a irs of p laces stro n g ly
169
I N T E R N A T I O N A L M IG R A T IO N
in flu e n c e d by p o litical id eo lo g ies a n d w ith g o v e rn m e n ts f r e

q u e n tly ta k in g an a c tiv e ro le in o rg a n is in g m ovem ent. Political
b a r r i e r s become a d d itio n a l h u r d le s fo r a n y o n e m oving a c ro s s
th e sp ace c o n tin u u m , a n d th e in te rn a tio n a l m ig ran t is someone
who h a s th e p o w er to c r o s s th em .
T he N a tu re of Political B a r r ie r s
T h e n a tu r e of th e s e b a r r i e r s lie s in th e s o v e re ig n ty o f th e
s ta t e , w hich r e s u lts in law s a n d re g u la tio n s g o v e rn in g
c itiz e n sh ip a n d th e r ig h ts o f e n tr y a n d e x it, a n d which
re fle c ts th e d evelopm ent o f a ttitu d e s to w a rd s fo re ig n m ig ratio n
(U n ite d N a tio n s, 1982). As f a r a s in te rn a tio n a l m obility is
co n c e rn e d re g u la tio n s may ta k e th e form o f law s, adm ini
s tr a tiv e m e a su re s a n d a g re e m e n ts b etw een s ta te s . A g reem ents
may be re c ip ro c a l; th e y may also b e b ila te ra l o r m u lti-la te ra l.
L abour flow s in to n o rth w e s t E urope in th e 1960s a n d e a rly
1970s w ere g o v e rn e d b y a n e tw o rk of b ila te ra l tr e a tie s w hich
h ad th e e ffe c t of c r e a tin g a v a s t la b o u r m a rk e t e x te n d in g
n o rth to F in lan d a n d s o u th in to tro p ic a l West A fric a , an d
en co m p assin g most o f th e M e d ite rra n e an b a s in . N o rthw est
E urope h a s two s e ts o f m u lti-la te ra l a g re e m e n ts , so f a r not
su c c e s s fu lly re p lic a te d e lse w h e re in th e w o rld : th e N ordic and
EEC common la b o u r m a rk e ts . Within e ach o f th e s e , m em ber
n a tio n a ls h a v e th e r ig h t fre e ly to c r o s s f r o n tie r s to see k and
ta k e up w o rk . In p r a c tic e m obility h a s n e v e r b ee n e n tire ly
fr e e , a s each s ta te h a s r e ta in e d p o w ers to re f u s e e n tr y in to
s e le c te d em ploym ent to n o n -n a tio n a ls .
Where e n tr y is not g o v e rn e d b y s u p ra -n a tio n a l a g r e e
m en t, a v a r ie ty of c o n tro l o p tio n s is a v ailab le to p o te n tia l
h o st g o v e rn m e n ts. M ostly th e s e o p e ra te th ro u g h th e is s u e of
re sid e n c e an d w ork p e rm its a n d may b e e ith e r s h o r t o r long
te rm . In ad d itio n a medical c e rtific a te may also be r e q u ir e d , a
s tif f h u rd le fo r some p o te n tia l m ig ra n ts b u t a way of u s in g
th e em ploym ent in s u r a n c e sy ste m to a d v a n ta g e b y th e ho st
c o u n try - h e a lth y im m ig ran ts p a y in s u r a n c e c o n trib u tio n s b u t
a re le s s lik e ly to r e q u ir e m edical s e r v ic e s . T he p e rm it sy stem
allows c o n sid e ra b le fle x ib ility a n d is in c re a s in g ly u se d in some
c o u n trie s s e le c tiv e ly : family m em bers o fte n fin d it more d iffi
c u lt th a n b re a d w in n e rs to e n t e r , while more h ig h ly sk ille d
im m ig ran ts can u su a lly g ain e n tr y m ore easily as c o u n trie s
seek to e n h a n c e th e ir s to c k s o f hum an c a p ita l. T oday b ra in s
a re more in dem and th a n b ra w n , o n e r e s u lt o f w hich is th a t
some o rig in c o u n trie s a re now a c tiv e ly p e rs u a d in g th e ir
im m igrant c itiz e n s w ith n e e d e d sk ills to r e t u r n . E n try b a r
r ie r s p r e s e n t p a r tic u la r p ro b lem s in some a r e a s , a s in p a r ts
o f A fric a , fo r ex am p le, w h ere colonial fro n tie r s c u t a c ro s s
hom ogeneous e th n ic g r o u p s , th o u g h th e y may be ir re le v a n t
w hen re fu g e e m ovem ents o c c u r . Q u ite fre q u e n tly th e v e ry
e x is te n c e of e n tr y c o n tro ls g iv e s ris e to illegal m ig ra tio n , a
g ro w in g problem in much o f th e w orld w h e re tig h te r e n tr y
170
c rite ria actually en co u rag e p ro p o rtio n ally more cla n d estin e

movement am ongst th o se who feel it is p o in tle ss tr y in g to gain
legal e n try becau se th e y lack n e c e ssa ry q u a lific atio n s.
G overnm ent a ttitu d e s to w ard s re g u la tio n s on d e p a rtu re
may also c re a te b a r r ie r s , alth o u g h in c re a sin g ly today some
sta te s a re ad o p tin g policies d esig n ed to make it e a sie r for
th e ir nationals to leav e. A rticle 13 of th e U niversal D eclar
ation of Human R ig h ts stip u la te s th a t e v e ry o n e h as th e rig h t
to leave any c o u n try , in clu d in g h is ow n. In re ality some
c o u n trie s, especially in th e Communist blo ck , do p ro h ib it
em igration, e ith e r g en erally o r fo r c e rta in categ o rie s of
citizen , con tro l b ein g e x e rc ise d th ro u g h th e issu e o f n e c e ss
a ry docum ents, in c lu d in g p a s s p o r t, v isa of d e stin a tio n
c o u n try , an d v accination c e rtific a te . More common now are
policies aimed a t stim u latin g em igration e ith e r fo r reliev in g
dem ographic p r e s s u r e , as in th e case of R w anda, o r fo r the
economic an d social b e n e fits stemming from rem ittan ces and
th e red u ctio n of unem ploym ent. A grow ing te n d e n c y ,
especially in s o u th e rn A sia, is th e o rg a n isa tio n of em igration
th ro u g h c o n tra c ts . C o u n tries may allow po ten tial host
em ployers to come in an d r e c r u it, as in th e case of C hina,
use th e ir own M inistries of L abour to do th e re c r u itin g , as in
T hailand, S ri Lanka and B an g lad esh , o r se t up th e ir own
bodies to o rg a n ise re c ru itm e n t and em ig ration, fo r exam ple,
the Philippine g o v ern m en t's Employment Development B oard
which r e c ru its w o rk ers whose skills a re needed fo r c o n tra c ts
signed betw een its e lf an d o th e r gov ern m en ts (A bella, 1984).
NETWORKS
In tern atio n al M igration N etw orks

In seek in g to u n d e rs ta n d how in te rn a tio n a l m igration o c cu rs
and evolves it is im p o rtan t to review th e p rin cip al netw orks
th a t e x is t. What soon becomes c le a r is th e ir d iv e rs ity o f
geographical form an d c h a ra c te ris tic s a n d , th e re fo re , th a t
attem p ts a t explanation must re g a rd them a s sy stem s w ith
v a ry in g a ttrib u te s an d o rg an isatio n al fo rces.
The m igration n etw ork of W estern E urope o c c u rs in a
region of co n sid erab le d is tin c tiv e n e s s . T he c o u n trie s th e re
are in d u stria lly ad v an ced w ith highly in te ra c tin g economies
and with activ e fro n tie r re g io n s. N ational m igration policies
v a ry , b u t have gen erally evolved w ithin dem ocratic sy stem s of
governm ent which have so u g h t a co n se n su s on th e is s u e . To
the south a g ra d ie n t o c c u rs in s ta n d a rd s o f liv in g w hich is
tra v e rs e d by la rg e num bers of w o rk ers an d th e ir fam ilies.
Western Europe is u n iq u e in th a t ex-colonial lin k s have led to
d istin ctiv e p a tte r n s of im m igration in s e v e ra l c a s e s , with flows
being dom inated by th e re sid u e of em pire: th e inflow o f pieds
n oirs in to F ran ce, fo r exam ple, fits u neasily in to any model of
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I N T E R N A T IO N A L M IG R A T IO N
m ig ratio n . Schem es fo r fre e m ovem ent o f p o p u la tio n h av e also

b een d e v elo p ed b etw een a sso c ia tio n s o f s ta te s .
Within th e W estern E u ro p ean n e tw o rk m ark ed d iffe re n c e s
o c c u r in r a te s o f im m igration a n d in th e d ire c tio n s of lin k s
betw een o rig in an d d e s tin a tio n c o u n tr ie s . F ran c e a n d West
Germ any b o th h a v e sim ilar n u m b e rs a n d p ro p o rtio n s of immi
g r a n ts b u t draw from d if f e r e n t s o u r c e s . In G reat B rita in ,
lev els of im m igration h av e rem ain ed re m a rk a b ly low and
so u rc e s h av e g e n e ra lly d iffe re d from th o s e of c o n tin e n ta l
c o u n trie s . P a tte r n s h av e c h a n g e d o v e r time too: fo r exam ple,
in th e la te r 1950s th e Ita lia n flow sw itc h e d from F ra n c e to
West G erm any an d P o rtu g u e s e a n d S p a n ia rd s w ere su c k e d in to
F ran ce in s te a d . In re c e n t y e a r s r a te s o f inflow a n d outflow
have v a rie d b y n a tio n a l g ro u p : in West G erm any a f te r 1975
inflow s of T u rk s an d Ita lia n s ro se s h a rp ly in com parison w ith
o th e r g ro u p s a n d th o u g h falls in outflow w ere common to all
n a tio n a litie s , ag ain th e r e w ere some d iv e rg e n c e s of e x p e rie n c e
(S a lt, 1985).
T he most a c tiv e m ig ratio n n e tw o rk a t p r e s e n t is th a t
c e n tr e d on th e Middle E a s t, b u t it d if f e r s c o n sid e ra b ly from
th a t b a se d upon W estern E u ro p e a n d c a n n o t be r e g a r d e d as
m erely a d iv e rs io n o f flows from fo rm er E u ro p ean so u rc e s
(B irk s an d S in c la ir, 1980; Seccom be a n d L aw less, 1985). T he
d e stin a tio n c o u n trie s a re tin y in p o p u la tio n te rm s. Hence th e
in flu x of la rg e n u m b e rs o f fo re ig n w o rk e rs h a s led to la b o u r
fo rc e s dom inated q u a n tita tiv e ly a n d q u a lita tiv e ly b y alien s
(S ta h l, 1982). T he Middle E ast c o u n trie s a re s till la rg e ly
n o n - in d u s tr ia lis e d , th e ir econom ies b a se d on one commodity -
oil - w hich m akes them p o te n tia lly h ig h ly v u ln e ra b le . C u ltu ra l
in flu e n c e s a re n o n -E u ro p e a n a n d th e r e is a lack o f to le ra n c e
in re lig io u s a ttitu d e s . P olitical o rie n ta tio n s sp a n a wide s p e c
trum in th e a re a a s a whole; a lth o u g h m ost la b o u r im p o rtin g
is done b y c o u n trie s w ith a b ro a d ly p ro -w e s te rn c a p ita list
s ta n c e , form s of g o v e rn m e n t a re not d e m o c ratic . In g e n e ra l,
h o st c o u n trie s h a v e looked e a s tw a rd s fo r th e ir la b o u r, la tte rly
o v e r v e ry lo n g d is ta n c e s , to T h a ila n d a n d th e P h ilip p in e s, for
exam p le. A lth o u g h th e r e h a v e b e e n a tte m p ts to r e c r u it
Moslems from J o r d a n , T u rk e y a n d N o rth A fric a , many w o rk e rs
in th e 1970s e x p r e s s e d o th e r f a ith s , c r e a tin g a re lig io u s a n d
e th n ic d iv id e b etw een th e fo re ig n a n d th e in d ig e n o u s p o p u
la tio n s . Lack of in d u s tr ia lis a tio n h a s m eant th a t fo re ig n
w o rk e rs w ere em ployed e sp e c ia lly in lo w -sk ill jo b s in co n
s tr u c tio n r a t h e r th a n in th e m a n u fa c tu rin g a n d s e rv ic e in d u s
tr ie s w hich many of them h a d filled in w e ste rn E u ro p e . G ulf
s ta te s too h a v e se t th e ir faces a g a in s t s e ttle m e n t, la b o u r
re c ru itm e n t b e in g m anaged s tr ic tly on a ro ta tio n b a s is , no
d o u b t h a v in g le a rn e d from E u ro p e . As a r e s u lt flow s h av e
become in c re a s in g ly o r g a n is e d , w ith la rg e n u m b e rs of sk illed
and c o n tra c te d e x p a tr ia te s , a n d th e b u lk of la b o u r b e in g
re c ru ite d a n d m anaged b y a g e n c ie s o r th ro u g h g o v ern m en t
re c ru itm e n t o ffic e s. O rig in c o u n trie s too te n d to be a t low er
172
levels of economic developm ent an d more d iv e rse th a n th o se of

so u th e rn E urope. A grow ing d istin ctio n is em erging betw een
newly in d u stria lise d c o u n trie s (N IC) like S outh Korea a n d th e
P hilip p in es, w here th e gro w th of la rg e m ulti-national e n te r
p ris e s is prom oting a c o rp o ra te p ack ag e sty le of o p e ra tio n ,
and o th e rs like In d ia , P ak istan an d B an gladesh w here mi
g ra tio n , declin ing in am ount, is much le s s well o rg a n ise d and
is not p a r t of w ider b u s in e s s re la tio n s (A bella, 1984; L ing,
1984).
T he la b o u r m igration netw o rk c e n tre d upon th e USA and
Canada d iffe rs from th o se d e sc rib e d ab o v e. Levels o f living
g ra d ie n ts to th e so u th a re v e ry s te e p , g iv in g rise to a con
tin u in g problem of illegal movement (K eely an d Elwell, 1981).
F u rth e rm o re , th e im m igration te n d s to have a m arked e th n ic
c h a ra c te r lead in g to major in te g ra tio n p roblem s ( e .g . P o rte s,
1981). Political re la tio n sh ip s a re especially im p o rtan t a ffec tin g
flows betw een th e USA and a num ber of C aribbean an d c en
tra l American sta te s and ev en in some c a se s g e n e ra tin g flow s.
Since th e USA an d C anada a re in little need o f f u r th e r s u p
plies of u n sk illed la b o u r, e x c e p t in c e rta in c ircu m stan c es su ch
as th e seasonal im m igration of a g ric u ltu ra l la b o u r in th e
so u th -w est (R anney an d K ossoudji, 1983), th e em phasis is on
the im port of skilled w o rk ers b u t th e s e a re often th o se most
needed b y o rig in c o u n trie s th em selv es. Morales (1983) has
pointed out th e tra n sitio n a l role o f le ss-s k ille d undocum ented
aliens in in c re a sin g th e flex ib ility of em ployers in highly
developed in d u s trie s su c h a s c a r m a n u fa c tu rin g , who seek to
red u ce employee n u m b ers and s u b s titu te cap ital fo r la b o u r.
Within th e C aribbean th e re may be a ste p -lik e q u ality in
labour m igration w ith en d p o in ts in th e USA, C an ad a,
V enezuela, A rg en tin a an d B razil, b u t o v e r th e la st couple of
decades th e re has u n d o u b ted ly been a g e n e ra l en largem ent of
the re g io n 's m igratory system which h a s tu rn e d se v e ra l
co u n trie s in to so u rc e s of m ultiple outflow s (B a c h , 1983; K ritz ,
1981). Colombia e x p o rts m ig ran ts to V enezuela, E cu ad o r,
Panama an d th e USA; S alv ad o rian s h av e b een going to
H onduras fo r decad es a n d now go to N icarag u a, G uatem ala,
C osta Rica an d Panama. G uatem alans go to Mexico, H aitians to
the Dominican R epublic an d B aham anians and Windward
Isla n d e rs to T rin id ad an d Tobago. V enezuela re c e iv e s mi
g ra n ts from Colombia, A rg e n tin a , P eru a n d th e Dominican
R epublic; Mexico im ports G uatem alans fo r i t s tobacco and
coffee h a rv e s ts an d h a s been re c e iv in g re fu g e e s from
th ro u g h o u t C en tral Am erica. P u e rto R ico, fo r long th e so u rce
of im m igration to th e USA, h as become a re c ip ie n t fo r sig n ifi
cant num bers of m ig ra n ts, mostly from th e Dominican R epublic
and C uba. F u rth e rm o re , th e se flows a re v a ria b le in compo
sitio n . Most p re v a le n t a re people o f low sk ill, m ostly male,
who circu late tem porarily a c ro ss co n tin u o u s b o r d e r s , b u t
grow ing n um bers c o n stitu te th e b ra in -d r a in /g a in to th e USA
or a re re fu g e e s (e ith e r ru ra l p e a s a n ts d isp laced in C en tral
173
IN T E R N A T IO N A L MIGRATIO N
American w ars o r b e tte r-e d u c a te d p ro fessio n als fleeing

re p re s s iv e regim es such as th o se of C uba, Chile o r
A rg e n tin a ). The USA - C anada - C aribbean region m igration
netw ork is th u s h ighly complex g eo g rap h ically , and its p a t
te rn will only be u n d e rsto o d in term s of th e in te ra c tio n of
both g en eral fo rces an d h ighly v a ria b le local co n d itio n s.
B eyond th e se major n etw o rk s o th e rs have th e ir own
p a rtic u la r c h a ra c te ris tic s . M arshall (1981) h as exp lain ed th e
p re fe re n tia l o rie n ta tio n to A rg e n tin a b y n eig h b o u rin g s ta te s in
term s of a ra n g e of g eo g ra p h ic a l, h isto rica l an d c u ltu ra l
lin k s. T hese in clu d e th e so c io -c u ltu ra l hom ogeneity with
U ruguay; th e e x iste n c e of e sta b lish e d communities of each
major so u rce n atio n ality in A rg en tin a a lre a d y , so th a t immi
g ra n ts a re not c u ltu ra l newcom ers and join recep tio n sy stem s
developed a lre a d y ; th e h isto rical d ep en d en ce of P araguay
upon A rg e n tin a , so th a t lab o u r flows m erely re in fo rc e what
alread y e x is ts in economic lin k s g e n e ra lly ; th e easy communi
cation a c ro ss th e fluid fro n tie r reg io n s w ith Bolivia, P araguay
and Chile; an d th e common o rig in s an d tra d itio n s linking
P arag u aian s and n o r th - e a s te r n A rg e n tin ia n s, Bolivians and
n o rth -w e s te rn A rg e n tin ia n s.
T he m igration netw o rk c e n tre d upon South A frica has
been in stitu tio n a lise d o v e r a long p erio d and is clearly d is
tin c tiv e from th o se elsew h ere (BO hning, 1981). It is a highly
o rg a n ise d sy stem , d e sig n e d specifically fo r ro tatio n r a th e r
th a n s e ttle m e n t, an d m aintained b y an in d iv id u al political
philosophy th a t g o v e rn s th e b e h a v io u r of th e n etw o rk . Politi
cal re la tio n sh ip s w ith so u rce c o u n trie s have determ ined
m arked ch an g es in flow p a tte r n s in re c e n t y e a rs , for
exam ple, th e v irtu a l cessatio n of movement from form er
P o rtu g u e se te r r ito r ie s , B otsw ana, Zimbabwe an d Zambia, and
th e in c re a se d reliance on 'in te rn a l' s o u rc e s.
A v e ry d iffe re n t ty p e of netw o rk e x is ts w ithin E aste rn
Europe w here lab o u r im balances a re le ss easy to ex p lain in
term s of c a p ita list fo rces an d th e need fo r th e in te rn a tio n a l
m igration of la b o u r is not su p p o sed to e x ist (G uha, 1978).
Num bers moving seem re la tiv e ly low, th o u g h in th e ab sen ce of
su itab le d ata one cannot be s u re (S c h u ltz , 1975). Technical
co-o p eratio n is th e p rin c ip a l reaso n fo r th e movement w ith
most m igrants b ein g sp e c ia lists of one s o rt of a n o th e r, often
in c o n stru c tio n . E ast G erm any, C zechoslovakia, H ungary and
th e USSR a re th e p rin c ip a l h o st n a tio n s, Poland and B ulgaria
th e main so u rc e s. Y ugoslavia, of c o u rs e , c o n s titu te s a major
anomaly - its lin k s h av e been mainly w ith W estern E urope
since th e 1960s - b u t it seems also th a t o th e r e a s te rn
E u ro p ean s, Poles an d R um anians esp ecially , w orked in th e
West in th e 1970s: one estim ate fo r 1972 was 4,000 (S c h u ltz ,
1975).
A final netw o rk to co n sid e r is th a t c e n tre d on
A u stralasia. Here an o v e r-rid in g co n sid eratio n is g eographical
rem oteness making it im possible to tap ro tational so u rc e s
174
easily . Immigration h a s been mainly E u ro p ean , an d fo r p u r

poses of settlem ent r a th e r th a n fo r la b o u r m arket re a so n s
(Z u b rzy ck i, 1981). Political a ttitu d e s h ave also m ilitated
ag ain st more local su p p lie s from Polynesia o r so u th Asia.
The Links betw een O rigin and D estination

Such a r i t h i com plexities of th e n e tw o rk s ou tlin ed above,
th a t we can only begin to com prehend them b y looking at
p a r ts of them in d iv id u ally , and g ra d u a lly see how each in te r
acts with th e r e s t to c re a te th e whole n etw o rk .
Most attem p ts to exp lain g eo g rap h ical p a tte r n s of in te r
national m igration have been a t th e m acro-scale, invoking
economic ideas of p u sh an d pull form ulated into re g re ssio n
models (S a lt, 1981). The models have norm ally so u g h t to
account fo r tem poral v a ria tio n s in m igration ra te betw een
p a irs of origin and d e stin a tio n c o u n trie s . Such an aly ses have
dem onstrated th e sig n ifican ce, at th e a g g re g a te lev el, of
labour m arket conditions ( e .g . BOhning, 1970; D re tta k is,
1975; Lianos, 1975; WadensjO, 1978). U n fo rtu n a te ly , lack of
detailed flow d ata a n d th e d iscip lin ary in te r e s ts of r e
s e a rc h e rs , mostly n o n -g e o g ra p h e rs , h av e h in d e re d th o u g h not
p reclu d ed attem p ts to model th e complete m atrix of movement
for an y m igration n etw o rk .
Such macro models tell u s little ab o u t th e g eo graphical
reality of much in te rn a tio n a l m ig ratio n , in clu d in g th e v a ry in g
p ro p e n sitie s to m igrate to a n d from p a rtic u la r p la c e s, the
links betw een local o rig in s and d e stin a tio n s c re a te d by flows
of inform ation and th e w ays in which th e se ch an g e o v e r tim e.
Migration ra te s an d com position v a ry c o n sid erab ly b y region
in b o th o rig in an d d e stin a tio n co u n try a n d to link a n d explain
them re q u ire s co n sid eratio n of many v a ria b le s w ithin some
kind of system s fram ew ork. Only by so doing can th e in te r
action in h e re n t in th e m igration p ro c e ss be fully u n d e rsto o d .
A num ber of s tu d ie s have so u g h t to ex p lain regional
v ariatio n s in im m igration ra te s in term s o f a ra n g e of socio
economic and dem ographic v a ria b le s ( e . g . B aucic, 1977;
Jo n e s, 1964; King an d S tra c h a n , 1979, 1980; McDonald, 1969;
P a re n ti, 1958). O th er s tu d ie s have d em o n strated th e w ays in
which lin k s have developed o v e r time b etw een th e specific
reg io n s; fo r example Jo n es (1973) a n d K ing (1977) fo r Malta,
Tapinos (1966) for G alicia, A ugarde an d P re v o st (1970) and
Simon and Noin (1972) fo r A lgeria. In so f a r a s some o f th e se
stu d ie s seek in g to exp lain em igration r a te s r e f e r only to
specific time p e rio d s th e ir u se is lim ited b y th e s ta tic fram e
work u se d . T hey do , h ow ever, in d ic a te th e main fo rce s
involved an d th e ir re sp e c tiv e s tr e n g th s . P e rh a p s more im p o rt
a n t, an aly sis of th e geog rap h ical p a tte r n of re sid u a ls can give
im portant clues why some places e r r from th e norm . King and
S trach an (1980), fo r exam ple, w ere able to dem o n strate a
175
clear relatio n sh ip betw een th e p a tte r n of re sid u a ls to th e ir

model and specific elem ents in th e local economy.
In re c e n t y e a rs th e r e h as b een a grow ing in te r e s t in
re tu r n m igration. Much of th e d iscu ssio n has focused on
developm ental is su e s su c h a s th e u se of rem itta n ce s and
sav in g s an d th e v alue of sk ills a c q u ire d (o r lo st) while
ab ro ad . T he th e o re tic a l a p p ro ach most ad o p ted h a s been
economic, re g a rd in g r e tu r n m igration as an ag en t o f th e
developm ent p ro c e ss. It h as assum ed a d e g re e of hom ogeneity
among r e tu r n m ig ran ts th a t is not re p lic a te d when local a re a s
of r e tu r n a re c o n sid e re d . F u rth e rm o re , th e d iffe re n t motiv
ations of th o se coming b a c k , com pared w ith th o se going o u t,
are not clearly d is tin g u is h e d , larg ely it m ust be ad m itted ,
becau se th e r e is still little em pirical inform ation. Yet th e
evidence does in d icate th a t m otivations do v a r y . T he stu d y of
K ing, S tra c h a n an d M ortimer (1985) in so u th e rn Italy demon
s tra te d th e im portance of non-econom ic co n sid e ratio n s for
re tu r n e e s , a sig n ifican t fin d in g in view of re tu rn m igration's
h y p o th e sise d c o n trib u tio n to economic c h an g e in reg io n s of
u n d er-d ev elo p m en t. It im plies, fo r exam ple, th a t th e y are
unlik ely to be too co n cern ed ab o u t in v estm en t th a t will be
good fo r th e ir home re g io n 's economy.
Complexity is also e v id e n t when th e d etailed geographical
p a tte rn of r e tu r n m igration is exam ined. R e tu rn m ig ran ts to
n o rth e a s te rn Italy w ere much more likely to continue w orking
in th e se c to r th e y h ad occupied while a b ro a d , and more easily
able to o btain jobs on r e t u r n , th a n th o se r e tu r n in g to the
so u th , th e d iffe re n c es re fle c tin g regio n al v a ria tio n s in the
p a tte rn s of in d u stria lisa tio n an d developm ent (S arac en o , 1985;
K ing, S tra c h a n and M ortim er, 1985). In P o rtu g a l, Lewis and
Williams (1985) d isco v ered sig n ific a n t d iffe re n c es in geo
grap h ical p a tte rn s of r e tu r n settlem en t betw een em ig ran tes
(re tu r n in g from th e in d u s tria l c o u n trie s to th e n o rth ) and
re to rn a d o s ( r e tu r n in g from P o rtu g u e se A frican te r r ito r ie s b u t
bo rn in P o rtu g al) an d also d iffe re n c e s in th e c h a ra c te ris tic s
of b o th g ro u p s betw een th o se r e tu r n in g to u rb a n a re a s and
tho se to r u r a l a re a s . For exam ple, e m ig ran tes w ere more
likely th a n re to rn a d o s to r e tu r n to r u r a l places of b ir th so
th e ir p a tte r n of u rb a n d r if t was le ss p ro n o u n c e d ; ric h e r
reto rn a d o s w ere more likely to r e tu r n to u rb a n a r e a s , to have
th e ir own b u sin e sse s an d employ more people th a n poor
re to rn a d o s an d e m ig ra n te s. E m igrantes r e tu rn in g to more
ru ra l a re a s sp e n t le ss on h o u sin g an d more on land a n d were
more likely to be p u s h e d b ack to w ork th a n em ig ran tes
re tu rn in g to u rb a n a re a s ; fo r exam ple, 47 p e rc e n t of ru ra l
area em ig ran tes in te n d e d not w orking a f te r r e tu r n b u t only 25
p e rc e n t m anaged i t , com pared w ith 25 p e rc e n t and 26 p e rc e n t
re sp e c tiv e ly of th e la rg e c ity r e tu r n e e s .
Even a t th e level of in d iv id u al se ttlem en ts th e r e is a
d istin c t geog rap h ical p a tte r n of r e tu r n . A num ber o f stu d ie s
have shown how c e rta in p a r ts of se ttle m e n ts have come to be
176
dom inated by th e h o u ses of re tu r n e e s , th e detailed p a tte rn s

re s u ltin g from a ra n g e of social a n d economic fa c to rs . Findlay
and Samha (1985) have d em o n strated a sim ilar e ffec t in Amman
d u rin g th e 1970s.
High Level Manpower M igration

The inadequacy of g ra v ity an d re g re s s io n m odels, a n d th e
need to view m igration in system s te rm s , is ev id e n t in stu d ie s
of th e movement of h ighly sk illed peo p le. E xplaining th e ir
m igration p re s e n ts some new pro b lem s, fo r sp a tia l d is p a rity is
relativ ely unim p o rtan t to people moving fo r c a re e r re a so n s in
an in creasin g ly global economy.
Such moves o c c u r not only w ithin th e m igration n etw o rk s
ce n tre d upon th e o ld e r p o s t-in d u s tria l economies in W estern
Europe an d N orth A m erica, b u t a re in c re a sin g ly found in
newly in d u stria lis e d c o u n trie s an d in th o se s till going th ro u g h
th e e a rly p h a se s of th e in d u stria lisa tio n p ro c e ss (Law less and
Seccombe, 1984; L ing, 1984; Royal S cientific S o ciety , 1983;
S tah l, 1984). U sing d a ta from th e In te rn a tio n a l P a sse n g e r
S u rv e y , Findlay an d Godden (1985) have d em o n strated a
significant chan g e in th e c h a ra c te r of B ritish m igration to the
Middle E ast. In th e early -m id d le 1970s manual a n d clerical
w o rkers w ere heavily in dem and, a s in f r a s tr u c tu r e p ro jec ts
s ta rte d u p in th e G ulf. From th e late 1970s few er o f th e se
w orkers have been re c ru ite d (p a rtly ow ing to com petition from
Far East c o rp o ratio n s a n d la b o u r so u rc e s) b u t th e re has been
an in c re a se d dem and fo r p ro fessio n al an d m anagerial s ta ff,
especially th o se w ith scien tific an d e n g in e e rin g sk ills a n d ,
in c re a sin g ly , th o se in ed u catio n an d th e w elfare se c to r. In
1982 63 p e rc e n t (13,316) of all w o rk ers re c ru ite d from B ritain
to th e Middle East w ere c la sse d as p ro fe ssio n al o r m anagerial.
T h ere is as y e t little em pirical ev id en ce on th e n a tu re of
th is movement, b u t an exam ination of re c e n t d a ta on th e issu e
of lo n g -term w ork p erm its in B ritain p ro v id e s some in te re s tin g
clu es. Ideally T able 6.1 should include EEC c o u n trie s b u t th e
free movement of la b o u r p ro v isio n s of th e T re a ty o f Rome
mean th a t p erm its a re not n e e d e d , a n d th e r e is no o th e r d ata
sou rce. It is cle a r from th e fig u re s fo r th e major im m igrant
sou rces th a t alth o u g h th e r e is some v a ria tio n betw een
c o u n trie s, th e most p erm its is su e d in each case a re fo r p ro
fessio n al, m anagerial an d re la te d s ta f f , an d th a t d u rin g
1981-83 th e p ro p o rtio n s w ere fairly c o n s ta n t.
T his g ro u p does not c o n s titu te an am orphous an d u n d if
fe re n tia te d m ass. Table 6.2 show s, fo r each c o u n try in 1983,
th e breakdow n of th e p ro fe ssio n a l, m anagerial a n d re la te d
imm igrant g ro u p in to its c o n stitu e n t p a r t s . T h e re a re cle a r
v ariatio n s betw een c o u n trie s in th e p ro p o rtio n s o f d iffe re n t
ty p e s of th e se high level w o rk e rs, a n d some o rig in s a re much
more im portant th a n o th e rs fo r specific sk ill ty p e s . Jap an an d
S w itzerland, fo r exam ple, se n d a h ig h p ro p o rtio n of p ro -
177
178
INTERNATIONAL
T a b le 6 . 1 : U n i t e d Kingdom: L o n g -te rm Work P e r m i t s I s s u e d 1981-83
T o tal Prof. T o tal Prof. T o tal P rof.

Nos. M a n a g e r ia l Nos. M a n a g e r ia l Nos. M a n a g e r ia l
S ource re la te d re la te d re la te d
1981 1982 1983
MIGRATION
A u stria 44 91 33 91 35 86
Japan 731 81 764 84 806 85
Norway 128 91 129 95 94 91
F in lan d 51 92 41 85 79 90
Sweden 159 88 129 89 226 93
S w itzerland 74 85 91 87 60 88
USA 1958 94 1945 94 1862 94
A u stralia 264 93 203 95 267 92
Canada 187 96 152 94 235 92
G reece 57 91 46 96 52 94
T urkey 47 89 56 82 36 81
In d ia 168 84 134 86 162 84
M a l a y s ia 203 98 250 98 257 98
T o tal f o r a l l
co u n trie s 5780 88 5569 88 5818 88
S o u r c e : D epartm ent o f Employment, O v e rs e a s L abo ur D i v i s i o n ( U n p u b l i s h e d ) .

IN TERN ATIO NA L MIGRATION
fessional and managerial su p p o rt s ta ff to th e ir general

(senior) management, b u t few health sp ecialists. For Norway,
scientific, engineering and technological occupations a re the
most im portant, although th is group also te n d s to be signifi
cant from the less developed c o u n trie s, including T u rk e y ,
India and G reece. Migration from Malaysia is dominated by
health professionals. As a general ru le , th e more highly
economically developed the origin c o u n try , the h ig h e r is its
proportion of general (sen io r) management and su p p o rt sta ff,
though th e re are excep tio n s. Quite why th ese v ariations occur
is not immediately c le a r, b u t they almost certainly reflect
such variables as governm ent policies ( e .g . in u sing ov erseas
medical sta ff in the Health S e rv ic e ), th e n a tu re of economic
links and the recruitm ent and sta ff tra n s fe r policies of indi
vidual em ployers.
Table 6 . 2 : U n ite d Kingdom: Long-term Work P e r m i t s t o P r o

f e s s i o n a l and M a n a g e r ia l Workers 1983. (Type o f p r o f e s s i o n a l /
m a n a g e ria l s t a f f (key below)
1 2 3 4 5
A u stria 2 6.7 3 3.3 13.3 16.7 10.0

Japan 20 .4 3 7.9 1.5 17.1 23.1
Norway 12.9 2 5.9 2 .3 47.1 11.8
F in la n d 16.9 3 6.6 11.3 16.9 18.3
Sweden 27 .5 4 4 .5 0 .5 1 8.0 9.5
S w itz e r la n d 11.4 54 .7 1.9 11.3 17.0
USA 19.4 4 0.1 8.7 2 4 .5 7 .3
A u stralia 11.7 3 2 .8 2 7 .5 2 1.9 6.1
Canada 12.9 35 .9 8.8 3 2 .3 10.1
Greece 2 .0 30 .6 6 .1 4 6.9 14.3
Turkey 3.4 24.1 6 .9 5 1.7 1 3.8
India 0 .7 30.1 11.0 3 7.5 14.0
M alaysia 0.0 6.3 8 6 .2 7 .5 0.0
T o ta l f o r a l l
immigrant so u r c e
cou n tries 14.5 3 3 .6 18.7 2 2.9 10.3
Source: Departm ent o f Employment: O v e rs e a s L abour D i v i s i o n

( u n p u b lis h e d )
Key: 1. G e n e ra l ( s e n i o r ) management.
2. P r o f e s s i o n a l , m a n a g e r ia l and r e l a t e d s u p p o r t s t a f f .
3. P r o f e s s i o n a l / m a n a g e r i a l : h e a l t h and w e l f a r e .
4. P r o f e s s i o n a l / m a n a g e r i a l s c i e n t i f i c , e n g i n e e r i n g and
te c h n o lo g ica l s t a f f .
5. O th er m a n a g e r i a l .
179
The System an d th e C a re e r
What h a s h ap p en ed is th a t th e in te rp la y of highly skilled
lab o u r fo rces w ith a d v an ced in d u s tria l economies in an in te r
ac tin g u rb a n system h as g e n e ra te d 'b ra in e x c h a n g e s '. Mi
g ratio n th e o rie s b ased on co n cep ts of d is ta n c e , id e a s of p u sh
and p u ll, an d g ra d ie n ts in w ages an d s ta n d a rd s o f liv in g , a re
in a p p ro p ria te fo r ex p lain in g th e s e e x c h a n g e s.
An e x p la n a to ry fram ew ork fo r h ig h level manpower
m igration should be b ased on th e d is a g g re g a te d n a tu re o f th e
m odern lab o u r m ark et, in which sp ecialist sk ills and tra in in g
mean th a t th e w orkforce is segm ented into se lf-co n ta in ed
non-com peting g ro u p s (S a lt, 1983). A ttem pts at explanation
must d istin g u ish specific o ccupational ty p e s and exam ine th e ir
relatio n sh ip with la b o u r m arket p ro c e sse s and in s titu tio n s . A
close association e x is ts betw een th e c a re e r p a th of th e in d i
v id u a l, th e n a tu re of th e job and th e m igration dem ands
im posed b y th e o rg a n isa tio n of w ork an d th e in te rn a l s tr u c
tu re of th e em ployer.
Within th e m igration system th a t re s u lts th e concept of
c a re e r is most im p o rtan t. A c a re e r c o n sists of a seq u en ce of
jobs held b y an in d iv id u al an d re la te d to each o th e r by th e
acquisition of sk ill an d e x p e rie n c e . Mobility betw een jobs
re s u lts from e ith e r ta s k o r locational ch ange and may occur
w ithin an em ploying o rg a n isa tio n o r in movement betw een
o rg a n isa tio n s. T he c a re e r p a th can th e n be defined as th e
ro u te tak en b y th e employee th ro u g h th e sequ en ce o f jobs
( ta s k s ) , o ccu p atio n s (collections of ta s k s ) , em ployers and
locations. T he choice of ro u te b ro ad ly conform s to th e idea
th a t a c a re e r will p ro g re s s u p w a rd s. We may h y p o th esise th a t
on th e se c a re e r p a th s c ritic a l p o in ts will o c cu r at which
p ro p e n sity to move in c re a s e s an d la b o u r m igration re s u lts .
T hese a re p o in ts which p rim arily re fle c t th e n a tu re of th e
occupation an d th e s tr u c tu r e of ta s k s it c o n ta in s, and the
way in w hich an em ployer o rg a n ise s w ork a n d m anages
c a re e rs . T he le n g th an d n a tu re of c a re e r p a th s v a r y , a n d th e
in terco n n ectio n s re fle c t th e o rg a n isa tio n of w ork by th e
em ployer: fo r exam ple, w h e th e r th e co rp o rate philosophy is
th a t c a re e rs should be fun ctio n al o r g e n e ra l.
From th e dem and side th e em ployer h a s a larg e system of
fixed jo b s in to which m ust be fitte d eligible people. D ifferent
policies e x ist fo r doing th a t. B ut su c h in te ra c tio n cannot
ex ist in isolation from su p p ly side c h a ra c te ris tic s in th e
system , p a rtic u la rly a ttitu d e s to w ork an d employee b e h a v
io u r. T h e re is some ev idence th a t th e s e a ttitu d e s v a ry
betw een m igration sy stem s: American m anagers seem fa r more
mobile th a n th e ir E uropean c o u n te r p a r ts , and Je n n in g s
(1971), h as w ritte n of them as 'm o b ilcen tric'. H ence, a s an
in d iv id u al moves th ro u g h h is c a re e r h is decisions about w here
to w ork, an d w hat a t , a re a ffe c ted b y c o n s tra in ts a n d in flu
ences which o p e ra te a t p a rtic u la r moments in tim e.
180
G eographical m igration p a tte r n s a r e , th e re fo re , d e te r

mined on th e one h and b y th e location d ecisions of em ploying
o rg an isatio n s an d th e sp atial division of lab o u r th e y fa v o u r,
and on th e o th e r b y a g ro u p of eligible people w ith d e g re e s
of skill and ex p erien ce alread y a c q u ire d . T h ese a re elem ents
in a system th e e n e rg y fo r which is p ro v id e d b y th e n eed fo r
em ployers to fill v acan cies w ith th e r ig h t so rt of sk ills, and
by th e d e sire of em ployees fo r c a re e rs which p re s e n t p o ssi
bilities fo r prom otion, job satisfactio n an d g en e ra l im prove
ment in life sty le .
Much of th is movement ta k e s place w ithin th e in te rn a l
labour m arkets (ILM) of m ulti-locational o rg a n isa tio n s. A lready
in th e UK it is estim ated th a t o v e r h alf of in te r-re g io n a l
labour m igration involves people not ch an g in g em ployer
(G leave, 1983). F or m ulti-national o rg a n isatio n ILMs have
become in te rn a tio n a l, w ith em ployees freely moving to jobs in
foreign p a r t s , fo r a ra n g e of re a so n s and in a v a rie ty of
forms of co rp o ra te o rg an isatio n al s tr u c tu r e . For ILM m igration
th e o rg an isatio n its e lf becom es th e co n te x t in which the
m igration system d ev elo p s. T he geog rap h ical s tr u c tu r e of th e
o rg a n isa tio n , c a re e r developm ent p ro c e d u re s and location of
c o rp o rate fu n ctio n s (like R & D c e n tr e s , head and regional
offices) combine to fashion th e g eo g rap h y of m igration. The
system is u sually lu b ric a te d b y g e n e ro u s com pensation p ac k
a g e s, in clu d in g th e u s e of sp ecialist relocation se rv ic e s,
which re d u c e th e fric tio n of b o th lin e a r and psychological
d istan ce (S a lt, 1983).
REFUGEES
The N ature of th e Problem

Most re se a rc h on in te rn a tio n a l m igration, and most of th is
c h a p te r so f a r , h as assum ed th a t movement is larg ely v o lu n
ta r y . H ow ever, th e re can be no d o u b t th a t re fu g e e s now
c o n stitu te a major elem ent in in te rn a tio n a l m igration. T h eir
num bers have grow n from an estim ated one an d a half million
in th e a fterm ath o f World War II to ab o u t te n million today
(C risp an d N ettleto n , 1984). O ver th e la st 50 y e a rs b o th th e
scale and sp atial focus of refu g ee movement have ch an g ed . In
th e in te r-w a r p erio d E urope was th e c e n tre of th e problem ;
from th e 1960s onw ards new w aves o f re fu g e e s have em anated
from T h ird World c o u n trie s w here in s ta b ility , u n d e r-d e v e lo p
ment and revolution h av e led to in te rn a l an d e x te rn a l conflict.
Most of them a re to be found in A frica, th e Middle E ast and
so u th e rn Asia (F ig u re 6 .1 ). In th e se new circu m stan ces old
rem edies like re p a tria tio n , local settlem ent an d resettlem en t
have been rev ealed as g ro ssly in a d e q u a te . In p a rtic u la r th e
refu g ee problem h as become more politicised w ith cynical
in te re s t o ften v e s te d in p re s e rv in g th e id e n tity of e x -p a tria te
181
INTERNATIONAL
MIGRATION
Fig. 6.1 D istrib u tio n of re fu g e e s 1984
g ro u p s, like th e P alestin ian s in th e Middle E ast and A fghans

in P a k ista n , allowing them to become activ e a g e n ts in fom ent
ing an d m aintaining arm ed conflict w ith a view to fu r th e r
political ch an g e.
The association of re fu g e e s w ith conflict is re fle c te d in
the defin itio n s u s e d . T he U nited Nations C onvention of 1951
and th e Protocol of 1967 R elating to R efugee S ta tu s define a
refu g ee as someone who leaves o r rem ains o u tsid e th e ir own
co u n try owing to a w ell-founded fe a r of b ein g p e rse c u te d for
reason of ra c e , relig io n , n a tio n a lity , m em bership of a p a rtic u
la r social g ro u p o r political opinion. T h is definition has been
widened by th e O rgan isatio n of A frican Unity to in clude any
individual who, owing to e x te rn a l a g g re s s io n , occupation o r
foreign dom ination, o r e v e n ts serio u sly d is tu rb in g public
o r d e r , is compelled to leave h is h ab itu al place of re sid e n c e .
This b ro a d e r definition allows u s to re g a rd re fu g e e s as people
whose p re se n c e a b ro ad can be a ttr ib u te d to fe a r of violence.
Not s u rp ris in g ly th e scope of ag en cies concerned with
re fu g e e s has also w idened to include not only th e re fu g e es
them selves, th e o rig in c o u n trie s an d immediate d e stin a tio n s,
b u t also more rem ote d e stin a tio n s , ag en cies striv in g to p ro
vide a s sista n c e , and major pow ers involved in th e conflict
d irectly o r in d ire c tly . R ep atriatio n h as become less a fe a tu re ,
local settlem ent le ss p o p u la r especially if th e d estin atio n
c o u n trie s a re a lre a d y p o o r, an d easily swamped by larg e
num bers. Local settlem ent program m es a re too o ften associated
with a g ric u ltu ra l settlem ent when th e tid e of p o p ulation move
ment is tow ards u rb a n isa tio n . Many s ta te s , while willing to
accept re fu g e e s in th e sh o rt term a re unw illing to allow long
term resettlem en t u n le ss th e n um bers a re small an d special
program m es can be d e riv e d fo r them , for exam ple, th a t of the
UK tow ards th e U gandans and Vietnam ese boat people.
T hough often resettlem en t else w here may remain a long term
aim for re fu g e e s ric h e r sta te s have p ro v e d unw illing to accept
them , especially in th e re c e n t re c e ssio n . In any case th e
perm anent resettlem en t of most A frican re fu g e e s o u tsid e
A frica, fo r exam ple, is ju s t not feasib le.
Refu g ees and M igration: A T h eo retical P e rsp ectiv e

In th e s tu d y of in te rn a tio n a l movement th e an aly sis of refu g ee
flows, and p a rtic u la rly th e ir determ ination h as been divorced
from concern w ith o th e r form s o f m ig ratio n . To a considerable
e x te n t th is re fle c ts d isc ip lin a ry in te r e s t. M igration sp e c ia lists,
mainly g e o g ra p h e rs , econom ists, so cio lo g ists, dem ographers
and political s c ie n tis ts , have c o n cern ed them selves w ith labour
flows and settlem en t, an d have ste e re d clear of moves th a t
seem u n p re d ic ta b le an d a re trig g e re d b y political e v e n ts .
Specialists in in te rn a tio n a l law, and some political s c ie n tis ts ,
in th e ir stu d ie s of re fu g e e flows have focused more on co n se-
183
INTERNATIO NAL MIGRATION
quences th an determ ination. C ausative th eories of refugee

movement a re , th e re fo re , lacking.
It is only recen tly th a t v e ry much attention has been
paid to the need to produce a theory of refugee movement,
though th ere have been attem p ts, usually rooted in sociology,
at producing th eo ries of refu g ee in teg ratio n and settlem ent. It
is , of co u rse, possible to see elem ents of a refugee th eo ry in
some of the classic m igration th eo ries. For example, refugee
movements are m ulti-step (R av en stein , 1885), and refu g ees do
have to surm ount in te rv e n in g obstacles (Lee, 1966).
P ete rse n 's (1958) general typology of m igration recognises two
basic refugee ty p e s , forced and impelled, though th is grossly
oversimplifies th e p ro cess since refugee flows are immensely
varied in both scale (geographical and volume) and time
(sh o rt and s h a rp , long draw n o u t). With little theoretical
basis having been developed, much of th e w riting on refugees
has been pragm atic and d e sc rip tiv e , focussing e ith e r on flight
or settlem ent and with th e aim of inform ing policy m akers, o r
framing advice fo r operational p erso n n el dealing with refugee
adm inistration (S teins and Tomasi, 1981). One of the first
attem pts to provide a com prehensive conceptualisation of the
determ inants of refugee flows was th a t of Kunz (1973). He
developed a model based on th e distinction betw een "antici
patory" and "acute" refugee movements. The anticipatory
refugee p re p a re d fo r th e move, has a clear knowledge of
destination and perm ission to sta y ; he is not easy to d is
tinguish from a v oluntary m igrant except th at the p u sh is
usually more im portant th an th e p u ll. T his type of movement
Kunz re fe rs to as p u sh -p e rm it. For the acute refugee the
push motive is overwhelm ing, th e re is no certain ty as to
destination and th e refugee may at firs t assume th a t th e move
is tem porary. Kunz hypoth esised th re e ty p e s of acute refugee
sub-m odels, p u s h -p re ssu re -p lu n g e (moving from the country
of immediate asylum to a th ird co u n try for perm anent se ttle
m ent), p u s h -p re s s u re -sta y (in th e co u n try of asylum ), p u sh -
p r e s s u r e - r e tu rn .
A ssociated with th ese p a tte rn s of flight and arriv al is
the introduction of stag es in th e p ro c e ss. The term "vin
tages" is used to d escribe th e flight of su ccessive g ro u p s as
the political situation d e te rio ra tes . V intages may unite to form
"w aves", cre a tin g cycles of refu g ee movement. Vintages are
essentially d e p a rtu re and tra n s it co h o rts, displaced by flig h t,
force o r absence (d efectio n ). The Kunz model th erefo re
relates associated d e p a rtu re cohorts (v in tag es) with th e form
of displacem ent, leading to an asylum in te rv al (d escrib ed as
"midway to now here") and finally resettlem ent cohorts
(w aves). It p re s e n ts us with a conceptual typology, a necess
ary firs t step in creatin g a theory of refugee m igration. Kunz
la te r (1981) elaborated his ideas by attem pting to encompass
the a ttitu d e s of refu g ees to ev en ts in th e ir home country
before movement, based on th e d egree of alienation ex p e r
184
IN T E R N A T IO N A L M IG R A T IO N
ienced a n d , as fa r as re se ttle m e n t was c o n c e rn e d , on th e

a ttitu d e s of th e new h o st c o u n try to w a rd s su ch fa c to rs a s
cu ltu ra l com patibility, to le ra n c e , an d im m igration and asylum
law s.
The Kunz model is an a ttem p t to form alise th e p ro c e ss of
refu g ee movement th ro u g h th e developm ent o f a typology
inv o lv in g d isplacem ent, m ovem ent, settlem en t an d th e a tti
tu d e s of re fu g e e s an d asylum c o u n trie s. It p ro v id e s some
conceptual c la rity an d is em pirically b a s e d , th u s allowing
p red ictio n s to be made of th e likely c o u rse o f e v e n ts once a
movement is tr ig g e r e d . H ow ever, it la c k s m echanism s a n d so
has little ex p la n a to ry pow er; it is p a rtic u la rly weak on th e
forces in origin c o u n trie s th a t p ro p el m ovement. It is only a
firs t ste p in th e o ry developm ent, a lb e it a valuable one.
Growing in te re s t among m igration sc h o la rs in refu g ee
problem s d u rin g th e 1980s is now lead in g to a se rio u s attem pt
to develop conceptual models of refu g ee flow determ ination
th a t move on from K unz's typological attem pt which focuses on
re fu g e e s th em selv es, to w ard s a lin k in g o f re fu g e e movement
with th e political in sta b ility in which th e o rig in s o f most
refu g ee flows a re ro o te d . The need fo r su ch a view h a s been
e x p re sse d b y B a rb e r (1984) who h a s draw n a tte n tio n to th e
role of s u p e r pow er riv a lry in fom enting in s ta b ility . Of p a r
tic u la r in te r e s t an d im portance is th e th e o re tic a l fram ew ork
recen tly a rtic u la te d by Zolberg (1985), b a se d on th e ten sio n s
and conflicts in h e re n t in political tra n sfo rm a tio n , an d w orth
re h e a rsin g in some d e ta il. He a rg u e s th a t alth o u g h th e e v e n ts
th a t tr ig g e r re fu g e e flows a re u n p re d ic ta b le , th e y do not
o ccu r random ly b u t a re m anifestations o f p ro c e sse s which are
them selves related to s tr u c tu r a l fe a tu re s o f contem porary
world p o litics. The d eterm in an ts o f re fu g e e flows a r e , th e r e
fo re , am enable to th e o re tic a l a n a ly sis.
The b a sis of Z o lb erg 's arg u m en t is th a t re fu g e e flows
ten d to be g e n e ra te d b y te n sio n s an d co n flicts in h e re n t in
two major ty p e s of political tra n sfo rm a tio n , an a b ru p t ch ange
of regim e a n d /o r th e re -o rg a n isa tio n o f p o litical com m unities.
T hese conditions a re e x a c e rb a te d b y th e socio-econom ic e n
vironm ent which c o n trib u te s to p o v e rty an d in sta b ility in
many le ss developed c o u n trie s , an d to th e su sc e p tib ility o f
many of them to th e in te rv e n tio n o f in te rn a tio n a l political an d
economic fo rc e s. Such in te rv e n tio n , d ire c t o r in d ire c t, te n d s
to make conflicts more violent an d to in c re a se th e p ro b ab ility
th a t th e y would tr ig g e r re fu g e e flow s. It also m eans th a t an
analy sis of th e d e te rm in a n ts of re fu g e e movement sh o u ld be
c ast in a tra n s -n a tio n a l fram ew ork.
A R efugee System
F ig u re 6.2 shows th e p rin c ip a l elem ent in a global system of
refu g ee flow d eterm in atio n . It co n tain s th re e main elem ents:
th e o rig in c o u n trie s of most re fu g e e flow s, mainly T h ird World
185
SU PER PO W ER S THIRD WORLD PRIMARY ORIGINS
RECEIVING COUNTRIES
Fig. 6.2 A global refugee systam

co u n trie s; th e recep tio n c o u n trie s; an d th e s u p e r an d major

regional po w ers.
Most refu g ee flows stem from T h ird World c o u n trie s,
many re c e n tly in d e p e n d e n t, and c h a ra c te ris e d by political
im m aturity. Most of th e se c o u n trie s do not have dem ocratic
forms of g o v ern m en t, n o r well e sta b lish e d political sy stem s.
As s ta te s th e y a re w eak. T h is im m aturity fo s te rs th e political
transfo rm atio n d isc u sse d b y Z olberg; its endem ic n a tu re leads
to in s ta b ility , ten sio n an d conflict from which flow revolution
and violence. Such u p h eav als in ev itab ly lead to outflow s o f
some people - re fu g e e s . T hese s ta te s , weak p o litically , are
also weak socially and economically w ith endem ic p o v e rty and
in eq u ality . Power s tru g g le s o ccu r betw een social c lasses and
g ro u p s an d e n g e n d e r p o litical tra n sfo rm a tio n s. T h ese in te rn a l
conditions may be e x a c e rb a te d by th e actio n s of major
regional an d s u p e r po w ers. At a formal fo reig n policy level
influence may be e x e rte d in an o v e rt w ay, b rin g in g c o u n trie s
clearly w ithin th e o rb it of th e major pow er. As Zolberg has
in d ic a te d , ev en th e p o o re st s ta te s a c q u ire some value as
paw ns in g re a t pow er s tru g g le s . Major p ow ers may also be
involved in inform al, often co v ert action to d e sta b ilise , seek
ing to b rin g about political tra n sfo rm a tio n s and fo s te r in s ta b
ility d ire c tly . T h ere a re num erous T h ird World c o u n trie s th a t
lie on th e frin g e s of s u p e r pow er in flu ence s p h e re s , and
where conflict has become endem ic. In sta b ility and conflict,
b re d from th e in te rp la y of in te rn a l an d in te rn a tio n a l fo rc e s,
combine to cause re fu g e e flows.
The recognition of people as re fu g e e s d ep e n d s upon th e
a ttitu d e s of p o ten tial receiv in g c o u n trie s . Zolberg has pointed
out th a t th e re fu g e e policies of p o te n tia l re c e iv e rs a re often
an ad ju n ct of foreign policy. S tates will more readily accept
as re fu g e e s p e rso n s fe a rin g violence a t th e h an d s of th e ir
an ta g o n ists th a n of th e ir frie n d s . Hence com parable e v e n ts
may tr ig g e r flows in one case becau se th e re is somewhere to
go, b u t not in a n o th e r b ecau se th e r e is n o t.
R eceiving c o u n trie s a r e , th e re fo re , th e th ird major
political element in th e sy stem . T he h ighly p o liticised d efi
nition of a re fu g e e means th a t th e legal p ra c tic e s ad o p ted by
sta te s become an e sse n tia l p a rt of th e fu n ctio n in g of th e
system . T hese become codified in to a refu g ee recep tio n policy
which h as two major in flu e n c e s in additio n to fo reig n policy.
F irst a re th e im m igration laws th a t have been developed and
which determ ine th e d e g re e of o p e n n e ss o f b o rd e rs to th e
nationals of o th e r c o u n trie s. The g ra n tin g of asylum may be
p a rt of such law s. S econd, g eo g rap h ical proxim ity is a major
in flu en ce. Most re fu g e e s go at f ir s t to a n e ig h b o u rin g sta te
u n d e r th e g ra v ity p rin c ip le . T hey may co n g reg ate th e r e o r
move to a more perm anent exile f u r th e r aw ay.
Q uite clearly a lot of h y p o th e sis te s tin g need s to be
done on th is model, b u t prelim inary in d icatio n s a re th a t such
a th eo retical fram ew ork, s tr e s s in g as it does b o th in te rn a l
187
and e x te rn a l relatio n s of s ta te s , p ro v id e s a good sta rtin g

point fo r a n a ly sin g flows. Since re fu g e e s a re politically motiv
ated fo r th e most p a r t , it is in political rela tio n sh ip s th a t
causation is most likely to lie. T he g eo g rap hical in te r e s t m ust
be in stu d y in g re fu g e e s as a m anifestation of political sy stem s
th a t d isp lay spatially u n iq u e c h a ra c te ris tic s . J u s t as it cannot
be assum ed th a t global economic fo rc e s explain all lab o u r
m igration p a tte r n s , so we m ust e x p e c t sim ilar political forces
to re su lt in g eo graphically d iffe re n t ty p e s of re fu g e e flow s.
As y e t th e re has been little attem p t by g e o g ra p h e rs to
dem onstrate how th e in te rp la y of macro fo rces w ith local
situ atio n s p ro d u c e s a g eo g rap h y of re fu g e e s. H ow ever, th e re
is p le n ty of evidence th a t v a ria tio n s in th e global system
describ ed above p ro d u ce sp atially v a ry in g refu g ee re sp o n se s.
T his can be illu s tra te d b y looking at c o n tra s ts in refu g ee
flows to selected c o u n trie s in b o th th e T h ird World an d in
Europe.
P ak istan is c u rre n tly h o st to th e la rg e st re fu g e e p o p u
lation in th e world (F ig u re 6 .1 ) , n e a rly th r e e million. Most o f
th e se a re from A fg h an istan an d live in camps n e a r th e
b o rd e r, b u t in addition th e re a re two h u n d re d th o u sa n d
re fu g e e s from B angladesh an d ab o u t two th o u sa n d Ira n ia n s
(C risp and N ettleto n , 1984). T h ese th r e e o rig in s a re asso ci
ated w ith th re e v e ry d iffe re n t political tra n sfo rm atio n s - th e
firs t cau sed by foreign in v a sio n , th e second mainly by racial
and relig io u s d iffe re n c e s, th e th ir d by a com bination of civil
and foreign w ar, and violent political u p h eav al. T he A fghans
live in th re e h u n d re d an d fo rty village camp s ite s , th e
la rg e st with th ir ty th o u sa n d re fu g e e s , mainly in B alu ch istan .
About th re e q u a r te r s of th e re fu g e e s a re women and c h ild re n ,
the menfolk rem aining b e h in d , many to fig h t. Aid in th e
camps comes jointly from th e P ak istan g o v ern m en t, which
a ssig n s re fu g e e s to cam ps an d g iv es them a minimum s u b s is t
ence allow ance, an d from in te rn a tio n a l aid o rg a n isa tio n s. The
policy is mainly to prom ote s e lf-s u ffic ie n c y , with re settlem en t
in th ir d c o u n trie s not y e t u n d e r c o n sid e ra tio n . In th is s itu
ation th e re fu g e e s a re clearly re g a rd e d a s a p o ten tially in flu
ential fa c to r in th e political situ a tio n in A fg h an istan .
A r a th e r d iffe re n t situ atio n e x is ts in T h ailan d , a n o th e r
major d estin atio n fo r local re fu g e e flow s, w here since 1975
o v er six h u n d re d th o u sa n d re fu g e e s h ave come in from
Kam puchea, Laos an d Vietnam. Unlike th e policy of th e
P ak istan g o v ern m en t, th a t of T hailand is to re s e ttle a s many
re fu g e e s as p ossible in th ir d c o u n trie s , re fle c tin g th e political
difficulties of c ro s s -b o rd e r conflicts betw een K hym er Rouge
so ld iers who in filtra te and u se re fu g e e cam ps, an d th e p u r
su in g V ietnam ese, w ith th e T hai population and arm y c a u g h t
in th e c ro s sfire . C o n seq u en tly , T hai policy is to d e te r new
a rriv a ls by long term d eten tio n in a u s te re camps an d w ith
limited access to resettlem en t p ro c e ssin g fac ilities. C learly ,
unlike P ak istan w here recep tio n policies a re likely to e n e o u r-
188
IN T E R N A T IO N A L M IG R A T IO N
age im migration of re fu g e e s , in T h ailan d th e re v e rs e is th e

case.
In c o n tra s t to b o th of th e se a re th e policies developed to
deal w ith re fu g e e s by E uropean c o u n trie s , since th e en d o f
World War II and th e d escen t of th e Iro n C u rta in no lo n g e r in
th e fro n t line (w ith th e p o ssib le e x cep tio n of F ran ce and th e
movement th e re of p ie d s n o irs in 1962-3). R eception c o u n trie s
in W estern E uro p e, like Sweden an d S w itz e rlan d , rec eiv e th e ir
re fu g e e s larg ely as th ir d c o u n trie s a n d make d istin c tio n s
betw een q u o ta re fu g e e s an d in d iv id u al asylum s e e k e rs . R ecep
tion is re s tr ic te d b u t, in c o n tra st to c o u n trie s in close geo
grap h ical proxim ity to p rim ary so u rc e s , w ell-o rg an ised with
in te g ra tio n b ein g th e p rin c ip a l aim.
CONCLUSION
T h ere is no c o h eren t sp a tia l th e o ry of in te rn a tio n a l m igration.

The cement of space is d is ta n c e , an d th is h a s p ro v ed too
friab le to cope w ith th e s tr e s s e s o f hum an b e h a v io u r. D is
tan ce is im p o rtan t, of c o u rs e , b u t only in th e way it makes
u s look fo r th e significance of d is ta n c e -re la te d phenom ena like
inform ation flows and c u ltu ra l pro x im ity . G ra v ity -b a se d th e o r
ies can b e , a t b e s t, s ta r tin g p o in ts in th e q u e st fo r ex p la
nation. R egression models can be h e lp fu l, especially a t local
and regional le v e ls, in p o in tin g out asso ciatio n s o f v a ria b le s,
b u t th e th e o re tic a l lin k s betw een them re fle c t human a ttitu d e s
and b e h a v io u r. Too o ften su ch models assum e hom ogeneity
among p o ten tial m ig ra n ts, an d th e y a re usually s ta tic in
s tr u c tu r e . T aken as d e sc rip tiv e r a th e r th an e x p lan a to ry
models, how ever, g ra v ity an d re g re ssio n form ulations a re
capable of allow ing some p re d ic tio n s to be made w ith re a so n
able accu racy o v e r th e s h o rt term .
Ultimately th e g eo g rap h ical ap p ro a c h to in te rn a tio n a l
m igration is b o th em pirical an d p rag m atic. Its sta n d p o in t is
spatial v a ria b ility an d fo r th a t it re q u ire s em pirical d a ta , too
often lac k in g . Where em pirical d a ta have b een available th e y
have too o ften shown th a t d ed u c tiv e th e o rie s do not ap p ly .
The pragm atism stem s from a co n cern w ith real world p ro b
lems. M igration is re g a rd e d a s one p ro c e s s o f sp atial change
th a t will in te ra c t w ith o th e rs to p ro d u c e regional d iffe re n
tiatio n . Flow p a tte rn s a r e , th e re fo re , re g a rd e d a s one com
ponent in an in te ra c tin g system of p la c e s.
It is in its d iffu se n a tu re th a t th e s tr e n g th s a n d w eak
n esse s of th e sp atial ap p ro ach may b e d isc e rn e d . By em pha
sisin g d iv e rs ity an d v a ria b ility o v e r sp ace a n d time w ithin
and betw een m igration n etw o rk s it a le r ts u s to th e p itfa lls o f
th e g en eral a p p ro a c h . B ut in fo cu ssin g on d iffe re n tia tio n it
h in d e rs p ro g re s s to w ard s g e n e ra l th e o ry . At th e en d o f th e
d ay , p e rh a p s i t s ab ility to show how d iffe re n t th e o re tic al
app ro ach es may be combined in p a rtic u la r local, regional an d
189
national circu m stan ces can help u s spell o u t th e lim its w ithin
which we might a s p ire to a g e n e ra l th e o ry .
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Sym posium ', IBG C o n fe re n c e , Leeds
Schulz, P. (19751 'L ab o u r M igration Among th e Socialist
European C o u n trie s in th e Post-W .W .II p e rio d ', I n te r
national M igration, 11, 190-201
Secombe, l . J . an d L aw less, R .J . (1985) 'Some New T re n d s in
M editerranean L abour M igration: T he Middle East Con
n e c tio n ', In te rn a tio n a l M igration, 2 3 (1 ), 123-148
Simon, G. and Noin, D. (1972) 'La M igration M aghrebine v e r s
I'E u ro p e ', C ah iers d 'O u tre -M e r, 25, 241-276
Stahl, C.W. (1982) 'In te rn a tio n a l L abour M igration an d I n te r
national D evelopm ent. I .L .O . In te rn a tio n a l M igration for
Em ploym ent', WPI.
S tah l, C.W. (1984) 'S in g a p o re 's F oreign W orkforce: some
R eflections on its B en efits an d C o sts', In tern a tio n a l
M igration Review 1 8 (1 ), 37-49
S te in , B . N . an d Tom asi, S.M . (1981) 'R efu g e es T o d a y ',
In te rn a tio n a l M igration R eview , 15. Special issu e
T apinos, G .P . (1966) 'M igrations e t p a rtic u la rism e s reg io n au x
en E sp a g n e ', P o p u latio n , 2 1 , 1135-1164
United N ations, (1982) 'in te rn a tio n a l M igration Polices and
Program m es: A World S u rv e y ', P opulation S tu d ie s No.
80, U nited N ations, New York
W adensjo, E. (1978) 'T h e Economic D eterm inants of M igration
in C o u n tries of D e stin a tio n ', p a p e r in C onference on
Economic an d D em ographic C hange: Is su e s fo r th e 1980s.
1. U. S . S . P . Liege
W olpert, J . (1965) 'B eh av io u ral A sp ects of th e Decision to
M ig rate', P a p e rs of th e Regional S cience A ssociation, 15,
159-169
Zolberg A. (1985) 'P olitical Forces a s D eterm inants o f I n te r
national M igration. P a p e r p re s e n te d at In tern a tio n a l
192
IN T ER N AT IO NA L MIGRATION
Union fo r the Scientific Study of Population1, Seminar on

'Em erging Issu es in International M igration, Bellagio
Zubrzycki, J7 (1981) 'In tern atio n al Migration in A ustralasia
and th e South Pacific', in M.M. K ritz, C .B . Keely and
S. M. Tomasi (e d s .)
193
C h a p te r Seven
INTERNAL MIGRATION IN THE THIRD WORLD*
J . G u g ler
T h is c h a p te r , in c o n tr a s t to th e o th e r c o n trib u tio n s to th is
volum e, h a s an e x p lic it re g io n a l focu s on th e le ss d e v elo p ed
c o u n trie s o f A sia, O cean ia, A fric a , L atin A m erica, a n d th e
C a rib b e a n . T h e se c o u n trie s a re p o o r b y d e fin itio n . T he ma
jo rity o f p eople ty p ic a lly liv e in r u r a l a re a s w h ere most
c o n tin u e to farm w ith lim ited in p u ts . A nd ev en th o u g h u rb a n
g ro w th e x c e e d s n a tu r a l p o p u la tio n g ro w th in e v e ry c o u n tr y ,
th e r u r a l p o p u latio n c o n tin u e s to grow alm ost e v e ry w h e re .
S till, th e r e is c o n s id e ra b le v a ria tio n am ong T h ird World
c o u n trie s : incom e lev els ra n g e w idely; a n d w hile some
c o u n trie s a re only b e g in n in g to u r b a n is e , o th e r s h a v e n e a rly
com pleted th e u rb a n tr a n s itio n (T a b le 7 .1 ) . W ithin th e T h ird
W orld, L atin A m erica c o n s titu te s a d is tin c t re g io n f u r th e r
along in b o th , econom ic develo p m en t an d u rb a n is a tio n .
T he la rg e ly r u r a l c h a r a c te r o f most T h ird World
c o u n trie s m akes two m ig ra to ry p a t t e r n s s ta n d o u t: r u r a l- r u r a l
m igration an d r u r a l- u r b a n m ig ra tio n . L arg e n u m b e rs of people
p a rtic ip a te in r u r a l- r u r a l m ig ratio n in many T h ird World
c o u n trie s . T hey u su a lly move to more a b u n d a n t o r more
fe rtile la n d s . N a tu ra l calam ities, s u c h a s th e d r o u g h t in th e
S ahel zone in A fric a , p r e c ip ita te su c h m ovem ents. P ublic
a g e n c ie s may a s s is t m ig ra n ts o r in d e e d r e c r u it them . T he
’tr a n s m ig r a tio n schem e in In d o n e sia to move people from th e
most d en sely p o p u la te d is la n d s - J a v a , B ali, a n d Lombok - to
o th e r is la n d s , is th e m ost am bitious s u c h p ro je c t. A bout 2.5
million p eo p le h av e b e e n moved b etw een 1979 an d 1984, and
g o v ern m en t p la n s call fo r 65 million p eople to be s h ifte d u p to
3,000 k ilo m eters from th e ir p r e s e n t hom es o v e r th e n e x t 20
y e a r s . When re se ttle m e n t is s u c c e s s f u l, r u r a l- r u r a l m ig ra n ts ,
u n lik e th e ir c o u sin s who go to th e c ity , a re a s s u r e d of
* T h is c h a p te r d ra w s on my d is c u s s io n o f r u r a l- u r b a n mi
g ra tio n a n d u rb a n em ploym ent in G ilb e rt an d G u g ler (1982).
I w ish to th a n k , w ith o u t im p lic a tin g , William G. F lanagan
fo r h e lp fu l com m ents, S ask ia G u g le r fo r e d itin g .
194
I N T E R N A L M I G R A T IO N IN T H E T H I R D WORLD
(self-)em p lo y m en t a n d o f a n econom ic a s s e t, th e ir la n d , th a t
can s u s ta in them in old a g e . H ence th e y a re th e r e f o re le ss
lik ely to in v e s t in m ain tain in g a claim to la n d in th e ir a re a of
o rig in . As in th e c ity , h o w e v e r, th e y may face h o stility from
in d ig e n e o u s p eople o r o th e r im m igrant g r o u p s .
THE URBAN TRANSITION
R u ra l-u rb a n m ig ratio n in th e T h ird World com m ands special

a tte n tio n . M ig ran ts p u t s tr a in on u r b a n la b o u r m a rk e ts
c h a ra c te ris e d b y w id e sp re a d unem ploym ent an d u n d e re m p lo y
m ent. T h ey e sc a la te dem and fo r u rb a n h o u sin g a n d s e rv ic e s
alre a d y c o n s id e re d in a d e q u a te . F or b e tte r o r w o rse , th e y
e x a c e rb a te p o p u la r p r e s s u r e s on th e p o litic al sy ste m .
R u ra l- u r b a n m ig ratio n in th e T h ir d World also a ro u s e s
in te r e s t b e c a u s e , in th e seco n d h a lf of th e 20th c e n tu r y , it
c o n s titu te s th e la s t p h a s e in a g r e a t hum an re v o lu tio n : it
com pletes th e u rb a n tr a n s itio n . U rb an se ttle m e n ts w ere f ir s t
e s ta b lis h e d more th a n fiv e th o u s a n d y e a r s ago; b u t a s r e
ce n tly a s th e b e g in n in g of th is c e n t u r y , only one in e ig h t
people liv e d in an u rb a n a r e a . B efore th e e n d o f th e c e n tu r y ,
h a lf o f h u m a n ity , th r e e billion p e o p le , will liv e in u rb a n
se ttle m e n ts ; a n d tw o t h ir d s o f th a t n u m b er will live in th e
T h ird World.
T h e m ag n itu d e of th is la s t p h a se of th e u rb a n tr a n s itio n ,
th e s h e e r n u m b er o f p eo p le in v o lv e d in i t , is w ith o u t p r e
ced en t in hum an h is to r y . U rb an g ro w th is p ro c e e d in g a t a
ra p id r a te in all T h ird World c o u n trie s . A nd w hile it h a s
slowed down in many c o u n tr ie s , in d e e d th ro u g h o u t L atin
A m erica, it h a s a c c e le ra te d in o th e r s , e sp e c ia lly in S outh A sia
an d S u b s a h a ra n A fric a . C o u n trie s s u c h a s B a n g la d e sh ,
Cam eroon, K en y a, M ozam bique, N epal, S audi A ra b ia ,
T a n z a n ia , r e p o r t th a t th e ir u rb a n p o p u la tio n s more th a n
do u b led b etw een 1973 a n d 1983 (T a b le 7 .1 ) . T he la rg e s t
T h ird World c itie s a re a b o u t to o u ts tr ip th e ir F irs t World
c o u n te r p a r ts : Mexico C ity a n d Sao Paulo a re p ro je c te d to
become th e w o rld ’s la r g e s t c itie s b e fo re th e tu r n o f th e c e n
tu r y (U n ite d N ations 1 9 8 0 :5 8 ). T h e r a te of u rb a n is a tio n , i . e .
th e in c re a s e in th e p ro p o rtio n o f th e p o p u la tio n u r b a n , in th e
T h ird World now , h o w e v e r, is sim ilar to th e ra te th a t c h a ra c
te r is e d th e u rb a n tr a n s itio n in E u ro p e 75 y e a rs e a r lie r . In
th e q u a r te r - c e n tu r y from 1950 to 1975, th e p ro p o rtio n u rb a n
grew from 16.7% to 28.0% in T h ird World c o u n trie s ; in to d a y 's
more d ev elo p ed c o u n tr ie s , it grew from 17.2% to 26.1%
betw een 1875 an d 1900. T h e s lig h t d iffe re n c e in th e tw o ra te s
o f u rb a n is a tio n is well w ith in th e m argin o f e r r o r o f th e
estim a te s.
While th e r a te of u rb a n is a tio n in th e T h ird World is not
ex cep tio n ally ra p id b y h is to ric a l s t a n d a r d s , th e ra te of
grow th o f i t s u rb a n p o p u la tio n h a s no p a ra lle l. B etw een 1875
195
INTERNAL
co
o>
T a b le 7 . 1 : Demographic C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s and Income o f M ajor T h ir d World C o u n t r i e s 1
Urban Urban sex
MIGRATION
p o p u la tio n as ra tio Urban g ro w th , P o p u l a t i o n grow th
GNP p e r percentage (m a les average annual average annual
P o p u latio n cap ita of to ta l p e r 1,0 00 g ro w th r a t e grow th r a t e
(m illio n s) (d o lla rs) pop u latio n fe m a le s ) (p ercen t) (p erc en t)
R egion/country mid-1983 1983* 19833 c i r c a 1970 1965-73 1973-83 1973-83
IN THE THIRD
E a s t A sia
Burma 35 180 29 1040 4 .0 3 .9 2.0
China 1019 300 21 na na na 1 .5
In d o n esia 156 560 24 1000 4 .1 4 .8 2 .3
K o re a, N orth 19 (930) 62 na 4 .9 4 .2 2 .5
K o re a, So uth 40 2010 62 996 6 .5 4 .8 1.6
M a la y s ia 15 1860 31 1013 3 .3 3 .5 2 .4
WORLD
P h ilip p in e s 52 760 39 933 4 .0 3 .8 2 .7
T h a il a n d 49 820 18 983 4 .8 3 .6 2 .3
V ietnam 59 (240) 20 na 5 .5 2 .4 2 .7
South A s ia
B an g la d e sh 95 130 17 1294 6 .6 7 .6 2 .4
India 733 260 24 1166 4 .0 4 .2 2 .3
Nepal 16 160 7 1173 4 .3 8 .2 2 .6
P ak istan 90 390 29 1227 4.3 4 .3 3 .0
S r i Lanka 15 330 26 1133 3.4 2 .9 1.7
Middle E a s t and N o rth A f r i c a
A fg h an istan 17 (230) 17
A lg eria 21 2320 46
Egypt 45 700 45
Iran 43 (1690) 53
Iraq 15 (1930) 69
Morocco 21 760 43
S au d i A r a b ia 10 12230 71
S yria 10 1760 48
T urkey 47 1240 45
S u b sah aran A f r i c a
Cameroon 10 820 39
E thiop ia 41 120 15
Ghana 13 310 38
Kenya 19 340 17
Mozambique 13 (370) 17
N ig eria 94 770 22
S o u th A f r i c a 32 2490 55
Sudan 21 400 20
T a n z a n ia 21 240 14
Uganda 14 220 7
Z aire 30 170 38
to
-j
na 5.6 6.2 2.6
999 2.5 5.4 3.1
1054 3.0 2.9 2.5
INTERNAL
1085 5.4 5.1 3.1
1029 5.7 5.3 3.6
958 4.0 4.2 2.6
na 8.4 7.4 4.7
1071 4.8 4.2 3.3
1148 4.9 3.7 2.2
MIGRATION
na 7.3 8.4 3.1
903 7.4 6.0 2.7
996 4.5 5.3 3.1
1386 7.3 8.0 4 .0 IN THE
na 8. 2 10.2 2.6
1149 4.7 5.1 2.7
1119 2. 6 3.9 2.4
THIRD
na 6.3 5.5 3.2

1078 8. 1 8. 6 3.3
1191 8.3 0.3 2.8
na 5.9 6.9 2.5
WORLD
198
INTERNAL
Table 7 .1 : (co n tin u ed )
Urban Urban sex

p o p u la tio n as ra tio Urban grow th, P o p u latio n growth
GNP per p e rcen tag e (males average annual average annual
MIGRATION
P o p u latio n c a p ita of t o t a l per 1,000 growth r a te growth r a te
(m illio n s ) ( d o lla r s ) p o p u la tio n fem ales) (p e rc e n t) (p e rc e n t)
R egion/country mid-1983 19832 19833 c ir c a 1970 1965-73 1973-83 1973-83
L atin America
A rgentina 84 953 2.1 2.1 1.6
IN THE
30 2070
B ra z il 130 1880 71 939 4.5 4.1 2.3
C hile 12 1870 82 906 2.8 2.4 1.7
Colombia 28 1430 66 868 4.4 2.9 1.9
Cuba 10 (1180) 70 983 2.8 1.9 0.8
THIRD
Mexico 75 2240 69 966 4 .8 4.1 2 .9
Peru 18 1040 67 1000 4.7 3.6 2.4
Venezuela 17 3840 85 961 4 .8 4.3 3 .5
WORLD
na - Not a v a ila b le
1. This ta b le in c lu d e s a l l T hird World c o u n trie s w ith a p o p u latio n over 9.5 m illio n in m id-1983.
2. GNP p er c a p ita f ig u r e s ( in b ra c k e ts ) a re fo r 1982 and from a d if f e r e n t so u rce ; they a re not s t r i c t l y
com parable w ith th e o th e r GNP per c a p ita f ig u r e s .
3. P ercen tag es urban a re based on d i f f e r e n t n a tio n a l d e f in itio n s of what i s 'u r b a n ', and c ro s s
c o u n try com parisons should be in te r p r e te d w ith c a u tio n .
Source: A ll d a ta from World Bank (1985: annex ta b le s 1, 19 and 2 2 ), except GNP p er c a p ita 1982
(in b ra c k e ts ) from S ivard (1985: s t a t i s t i c a l annex ta b le I I I ) , urban sex r a t i o s from F erree
and G ugler (1985).
I N T E R N A L M IG R A T IO N IN T H E T H I R D WORLD
a n d 1900, th e u rb a n p o p u la tio n in th e now more d ev elo p ed

c o u n trie s grew b y 100% a n d th e r u r a l p o p u la tio n b y 18%. While
T h ird World c o u n trie s w ere tr a v e r s in g ro u g h ly th e same ra n g e
in p ro p o rtio n u r b a n b e tw e e n 1950 a n d 1975, th e ir u rb a n
po p u latio n grew b y 188%, th e ir r u r a l b y 49%. T h e d iffe re n c e
in g ro w th r a te s b etw een th e two e r a s is e x p la in e d b y much
h ig h e r r a te s of n a tu r a l p o p u la tio n g ro w th in T h ird World
c o u n trie s to d a y . U rb an g ro w th is e x c e p tio n a lly ra p id in d e
v e lo p in g c o u n tr ie s , n o t b e c a u s e of an u n u su a lly ra p id in
cre a se in th e p ro p o rtio n o f th e p o p u la tio n u r b a n p ro d u c e d b y
ru r a l- u r b a n m ig ra tio n , b u t b e c a u se o f th e fa s t in c re a s e in th e
to tal p o p u latio n to w hich th is p ro p o rtio n is a p p lie d (P re s to n
1979).
U ntil th e la s t c e n tu r y , m any r u r a l p o p u la tio n s h a d little
o r no co n n ectio n w ith u rb a n c e n tr e s . T h e y liv e d in q u ite
s e lf - c e n tr e d s o c ie tie s . By a n d la r g e , th e y o p e ra te d s u b s is t
ence econom ies, a n d m ain tain ed o nly lim ited e x te r n a l co n
tr a c t s . T he ex p a n sio n o f th e c a p ita lis t sy ste m , u n d e r way
fo r h a lf a m illenium , a n d a c c e le ra te d b y th e In d u s tria l
R ev o lu tio n , h a s h o w ev er in c o rp o ra te d e v e r more o u tly in g
re g io n s in to th e e m e rg in g w orld econom y. By now th e p ro c e s s
is v irtu a lly com plete. T h e w orld o v e r , r u r a l p o p u la tio n s h av e
b een d raw n in to th e u rb a n n e x u s . S u b s is te n c e fa rm e rs h av e
come to p ro d u c e fo r u rb a n m a rk e ts , e ith e r self-em p lo y ed as
p e a s a n ts , o r on th e a c c o u n t o f la n d o w n e rs. T hey h a v e b e
come s u b je c t to p o litical c o n tro l e x e r te d from u rb a n c e n tr e s .
And th e ir c u ltu r e h a s b een tra n s fo rm e d a s th e y h av e b ee n
in d o c trin a te d by fo re ig n m issio n a rie s, su b je c te d to school
c u rric u la m an d ated b y u rb a n e lite s , a n d e x p o se d to film s, a n d
ra d io a n d te le v isio n p ro g ra m s , p ro d u c e d in d is ta n t c itie s ,
some of them h a lf way a c ro s s th e g lo b e .1
F o r many p eo p les th e in te g r a tio n in to th e w orld c a p ita list
system was tra u m a tic . T h e y w ere e n s la v e d , w ere fo rc e d in to
th e en co m ien d a, o r s u ffe re d a s in d e n tu r e d la b o u r. T h ey w ere
th u s tie d to th e la n d ev en while th e p ro d u c t of th e ir la b o u r
e n te re d w orld m a rk e ts . B u t s u c h b o n d s h av e la rg e ly b een
b ro k e n . T oday r u r a l p o p u la tio n s ra is e th e c a sh th e y n eed to
s e ttle ta x e s , to p u rc h a s e m a n u fa c tu re d g o o d s, a n d to p ay
school f e e s , b y se llin g some o f th e p r o d u c ts th e y grow as
in d e p e n d e n t p r o d u c e r s , a s te n a n t fa r m e r s , a n d a s s h a re
c r o p p e r s . O r th e y fin d em ploym ent w ith local la n d o w n e rs, in
o th e r r u r a l a r e a s , o r in th e c itie s . W hether th e y sell p ro d u c e
on th e m ark et o r th e ir la b o u r to an e m p lo y e r, th e y a r e p a r t
of a fa r - r e a c h in g economic sy stem b e y o n d th e ir c o n tro l. T h ey
e x p e rie n c e th e v a g a rie s of th e w orld econom y w hen th e y lose
xF or a n a ly se s o f th e in c o rp o ra tio n of r u r a l p o p u la tio n s, see

P e a rse (1970) on L atin A m erica, a n d G u g ler an d F lanagan
(1978a: 180-3) on West A fric a .
199
IN T ER N A L MIGRATIO N IN T H E T H I R D WORLD
th e ir jobs d u rin g re c e ssio n s o r when a su d d e n dro p in world

m arket p ric e s d e p re s s e s th e ir e a rn in g s from e x p o rt c ro p s .
Some r u r a l p o p u latio n s w ere ex p lo ited to su ch an e x te n t
th a t th e ir liv in g co n d itio n s d eclin ed . E lsew here, specific
g ro u p s ex p e rie n c ed p a u p e riz a tio n . But fo r most r u r a l dw ellers
living conditions h av e im proved; in term s of b e tte r h e a lth and
lo n g e r life , th e ch an g e h as u su ally been d ram atic. H ow ever,
th e se v e ry im provem ents have ac c e lera te d population g ro w th ,
and population p r e s s u r e on th e av ailable lan d h a s become
se v e re in many a re a s .
In co rp o ratio n in to th e w orld system b ro u g h t new ele
ments of d iffe re n tia tio n to ru ra l people - many of whom had
known a m easure of e q u a lity b a se d on g e n e ral ac c e ss to lan d .
The f irs t men to be c o n v e rte d by m issionaries and to a tte n d
th e ir schools had a h e a d s ta rt in employment as te a c h e rs ,
governm ent o fficials, o r commercial c le rk s; th e f irs t to a c
cum ulate a little capital in em ploym ent, o r from th e sale of
th e ir c ro p s , e sta b lish e d them selves a s tr a d e r s o r tr a n s
p o r te r s ; an d th e f ir s t to become a g e n ts fo r th e colonial
governm ent o r th e in d e p e n d e n t s ta te ex p an d ed th e ir control
o v e r la n d , o r d e riv e d th e b e n e fits th a t flow from w ielding
p a tro n a g e . R ural p o p u latio n s th u s came to e x p erie n ce re la tiv e
d ep riv a tio n . As in co rp o ratio n p ro c e e d e d , th e y reco g n ised
th e ir own p o v e rty : th e y saw a few in th e ir m idst ris e to
levels of affluence u n d ream t of in th e p a s t, and th e y came
face to face w ith th e life sty le of o u ts id e rs - m issio n aries,
tr a d e r s , governm ent o fficials, fo reig n e x p e r ts , and to u r is ts .
With th e p erc e p tio n of a b e tte r life enjoyed by some,
came an aw aren ess of th e means to w ards su ch an e n d .
T h ro u g h o u t th e w orld to d a y , most r u r a l d w ellers know w hat it
is like to sell an d b u y in m ark ets o r s h o p s, th e y have seen
what a school c e rtific a te can do for th e fu tu re o f a ch ild ,
have liste n e d to f ir s t- h a n d acco u n ts of th o se who work in th e
c ity . Some im prove th e ir condition while sta y in g in r u r a l
a re a s , o r by moving to o th e r r u r a l a r e a s , as fa rm e rs,
tr a d e r s , o r a rtis a n s . B ut fo r m any, r u r a l p ro s p e c ts a p p e a r
dim an d th e u rb a n scene more p rom ising.
THE RURAL-URBAN GAP
Com parisons of r u r a l an d u rb a n incom es a re notoriously

p ro b le m a tic .2 The u su a l b a sis fo r com parison is an in d e x of
u rb a n wage ra te s an d a c ru d e in d ex of a g ric u ltu re incom es,
2Lipton (1977:146-53, 430-34) p ro v id e s d a ta on r u r a l-u r b a n

d iffe re n tia ls in w ages, incom es, an d e x p e n d itu re s fo r n in e
teen developing c o u n trie s an d d isc u sse s th e shortcom ings of
such d a ta .
200
IN T E R N A L MIGRATIO N IN T H E T H I R D WORLD
such as th e p ric e s which cash c ro p s fe tc h . T h ese m easures

signal su d d en sh ifts in u rb a n o r r u r a l incom es, e .g . th e
rap id rise in u rb a n w ages in most A frican c o u n trie s ju s t
b efore an d sh o rtly a fte r th e attain m en t of in d e p e n d e n c e . But
th ey have serio u s sh o rtco m in g s. A dju stm ents fo r th e d iffe r
ence in th e cost of liv in g betw een r u r a l an d u rb a n a re a s are
difficult to make. And p ro d u c e r p ric e s fail to ta k e in to a c
count ch an g es in th e p ro d u c tiv ity of la b o u r in a g ric u ltu re ,
which may be d e c re a sed by grow ing population p r e s s u r e , b u t
in creased by im provem ents in farm ing te c h n iq u e s.
The forem ost d ifficu lty fo r an y com parison o f u rb a n and
ru ra l incomes in te n d e d to explain an d p re d ic t m igratory b e
haviour is th e need for d isa g g re g a tio n . A verage u rb a n wage
ra te s have little relev an ce fo r th e u n sk illed m ig ran t. R ural
o p p o rtu n itie s will v a ry acco rd in g to th e endowm ent of th e
region of o rig in an d th e m ig ra n t's local p o sitio n , i .e . access
to land an d cap ital in p u ts . T he point is well illu s tra te d by
Shaw 's (1976:74-105) an aly sis of r u r a l o u t-m ig ratio n w ithin
and among Latin American c o u n trie s. V ariations in th e system
of land te n u re a re sig n ifican tly re la te d to th e ra te of ru ra l
o ut-m igration from d iffe re n t p ro v in c e s in b o th Chile and
P eru . Com paring six te e n c o u n trie s , Shaw show s f u r th e r th a t
it is not ab so lu te population p r e s s u r e , b u t acce ss of lab o u r to
land as m ediated by land o w n e rsh ip , th a t a ffe c ts ru ra l o u t
m igration. T he a v e ra g e ra te of o u t-m ig ratio n was h ig h e st for
those c o u n trie s , Mexico, P e ru , V enezuela, in which more th an
half th e land was held b y latifu n d io s an d w here more th an
half th e farm s w ere m inifundios.
An evaluation of th e r u r a l-u rb a n balance of o p p o rtu n itie s
has to ta k e in to account not only in d iv id u al incom es b u t also
public am enities. T he u rb a n a re a s , an d especially th e major
citie s, in v a ria b ly have more and b e tte r facilities th a n th e ir
ru ra l h in te rla n d s , and o ffe r s u p e rio r ed u catio n and tra in in g ,
for th e m ig ra n t's c h ild re n in p a rtic u la r. E x p e rt medical care
and d ru g s can be fo u n d . Piped w ater a s s u r e s clean w ater and
releases women from th e d ru d g e ry of fe tc h in g w ater o v e r long
d ista n c e s. E lectricity re p la c e s th e k e ro se n e lamp and th e open
fire . Some m ig ran ts e v en tu ally succeed in o b tain in g su b sid ise d
h o u sin g . C learly , h e re a g a in , th e re is a se rio u s problem of
d isa g g re g a tio n . M igrants fre q u e n tly e x p e rie n c e se v e re d is
crim ination in access to th e se u rb a n am enities, in d e e d , fo r
some, hou sin g an d s a n ita ry co nditions may well b e w orse th a n
where th e y came from . S till, on balan ce most enjoy more
am enities th a n th o se who sta y e d b e h in d .
R u ra l-u rb a n d iffe re n c es a re b e s t a s s e sse d with an in
d icato r th a t m easures w ell-being d ire c tly . H ealth and life a re
u n iv e rsa l v alu es an d th u s p ro v id e m easures with c ro s s -
c u ltu ra l v a lid ity . M ortality d a ta a re an obvious in d ic a to r.
Estim ates of in fa n t and e a rly childhood m ortality b ro k en down
by ru ra l v e rs u s u rb a n re sid e n c e h av e b een assem bled r e
cently for 44 T h ird World c o u n trie s (G ilb e rt a n d G ugler
201
I N T E R N A L M I G R A T IO N IN T H E T H I R D WORLD
1982:53). In all b u t o n e , r u r a l m o rtality w as re p o r te d h ig h e r

th a n u r b a n ; in 24 c o u n trie s th e r u r a l r a te e x c e e d ed th e
u rb a n b y more th a n 30 p e r c e n t. T h e re lia b ility o f many o f
th e s e d a ta is q u e s tio n a b le , b u t th e r e is re a s o n to assu m e th a t
th e y te n d to u n d e r s ta te r a t h e r th a n e x a g g e ra te u r b a n - r u r a l
d iffe re n tia ls . Info rm atio n on in fa n t a n d c h ild m o rta lity is
u su a lly d e riv e d from r e tr o s p e c tiv e s u r v e y s . C h a ra c te ris a tio n
a s u rb a n o r r u r a l d e p e n d s on re s id e n c e a t th e tim e o f th e
s u r v e y . T h u s some o f th e b i r t h s a n d d e a th s r e p o r te d a s
u rb a n o c c u rre d in r u r a l a r e a s , b e fo re th e m ig ratio n o f th e
m o th e r, a n d to th a t e x te n t h ig h r u r a l m ortality r a te s in c re a s e
th e u rb a n a v e ra g e . A nd th e major s o u rc e of e r r o r , u n d e r
re p o r tin g o f c h ild re n who h a v e d ie d , is more common in r u r a l
th a n in u rb a n a r e a s . S till, th e problem o f d is a g g re g a tio n
rem ain s. At th e u r b a n e n d in p a r tic u la r , m ortality r a te s
among m ig ra n ts p re su m a b ly a r e ab o v e a v e r a g e . T h e d iffe re n c e
sh o u ld not b e e x a g g e ra te d th o u g h : m ig ra n ts u su a lly c o n s titu te
a la rg e p ro p o rtio n o f th e u r b a n p o p u la tio n a n d h en c e s tro n g ly
a ffe c t u rb a n a v e r a g e s . In m ost c o u n tr ie s th e r u r a l- u r b a n
d iffe re n tia l is s u ffic ie n tly la rg e to s u g g e s t a re a l im provem ent
in liv in g c o n d itio n s fo r m ig ra n ts .
C ities a re c e n tr e s o f p o w er an d p riv ile g e - s u c h a
sum m ary sta te m e n t h o ld s th r o u g h o u t th e T h ird World to d a y .
E ven so cialist c o u n tr ie s , w hile re d u c in g income in e q u a lity
w ithin th e u rb a n a n d r u r a l s e c to r s re s p e c tiv e ly , a p p e a r to
fin d it d iffic u lt to deal w ith in t e r - s e c t o r in e q u a lity . In C h in a,
p e rso n a l co n su m p tio n h a s b e e n e stim a te d a t $244 p e r c a p ita in
u rb a n a s a g a in s t $111 p e r c a p ita in r u r a l a r e a s in 1979. T he
ra tio o f 2 .2 is sim ilar to th a t o f o th e r d e v e lo p in g c o u n trie s in
A sia. D esp ite a commitment to re d u c in g th e u r b a n - r u r a l g a p ,
u rb a n p e r c a p ita incom es a re e stim a te d to h av e in c re a s e d
betw een 1957 a n d 1979 a t an a n n u a l a v e ra g e re a l r a te of 2.9
p e r c e n t, b u t r u r a l incom es a t on ly 1.6 p e r c e n t. T h e gap in
p e rs o n a l income is accom panied b y a la r g e gap in collective
consu m p tio n . T h e q u a lity of e d u c a tio n a l an d h e a lth fa cilities
in p a r tic u la r is m uch h ig h e r in u rb a n a r e a s (W orld B ank
1981:52-7; see also Nolan a n d White 1984).
N y e re re , th e P re s id e n t o f T a n z a n ia , fo c u se d a tte n tio n on
th e is s u e a few y e a r s a f te r h is c o u n try h a d gain ed in d e p e n d
e n c e . In th e fam ous A ru s h a D eclaratio n (N y e re re [1967]
1968:28) h e w a rn e d :
A lth o u g h w hen we ta lk o f e x p lo ita tio n we u su a lly

th in k of c a p ita lis ts , we sh o u ld n o t fo rg e t th a t th e r e
a re many fish in th e s e a . T h e y e a t ea c h o th e r . T he
la rg e o n e s eat th e sm all o n e s , a n d sm all o n e s eat
th o se who a re e v e n sm aller. T h e re a r e two p o ssib le
w ays o f d iv id in g th e p eo p le in o u r c o u n tr y . We can
p u t th e c a p ita lis ts a n d fe u d a lis ts on one s id e , and
th e fa rm e rs a n d w o rk e rs on th e o th e r . B ut we can
also d iv id e th e p eo p le in to u rb a n d w e llers on one
202
side and th o se who live in th e r u r a l a re a s on th e

o th e r. If we a re not c a re fu l we m ight get to th e
position w here th e real exploitation in T anzania is
th a t of th e town d w ellers ex p lo itin g th e p e a s a n ts .
Lipton (1977; see also Lipton 1984) d iag n o ses th e problem as

'u rb a n b ia s '. He a rg u e s th a t ru ra l people in th e T h ird World
are p ro v id ed w ith few er re so u rc e s th a n is e ith e r e q u itab le o r
efficient b ecau se allocations a re u rb a n -b ia s e d . At is s u e is not
dish o n esty o r e r r o r s of a n a ly s is , b u t a p re v a ilin g disposition
of policy m ak ers, an d th e ir a d v is o rs , to ju s tify heavily u rb a n
reso u rce allocations. Lipton o ffe rs a major d em onstration of
th e in e q u ity an d in efficien cy of th e se allo cations. His e x p la
nation of th e d ispositional b ias fo cu ses on th e fact th a t
decisions a re made in th e c ity . In ta x a tio n p olicy, in th e
allocation of investm ent re s o u rc e s , in th e p ric in g o f ru r a l
p ro d u c ts , in th e p ro v isio n of in d u s tria l and a g ric u ltu ra l
in p u ts , in education an d re s e a rc h : ev e ry w h ere it is g o v e rn
ment by th e c ity , from th e c ity , fo r th e c ity .
D ispositional b ias in fav o u r of th e city is ce rta in ly
common among T h ird World e lite s , b u t political pow er re la tio n s
need also to be ta k e n in to a cco u n t. A fte r a ll, in te rn a tio n a l
agencies and fo reig n d o n o rs have p re a c h e d th e im portance of
ru ra l developm ent fo r many y e a rs - to little e ffe c t. G over
nment le a d e rs a re p reo ccu p ied with m aintaining th e su p p o rt of
th e g ro u p s th a t condition th e ir ch an ces o f s ta y in g in pow er:
th e arm ed fo rc e s , in v e s to r s , p ro fe ssio n a ls, stra te g ic a lly
placed elem ents of la b o u r - all of them u r b a n -b a s e d . Even th e
lum penproletariat p o ses th e th r e a t o f u rb a n rio ts . R esources
for b o th consum ption an d in v estm en t a re d isp ro p o rtio n ate ly
allocated to cities b ecau se th e ru r a l m asses have little political
lev erag e. In most T h ird World c o u n trie s th e y have been d is
e n fra n c h ise d . Where th e y can p a rtic ip a te in com petitive
elections th e ir v ote is fre q u e n tly co n tro lled by local e lites
th ro u g h p a tro n a g e o r o u trig h t co ercio n . P easant reb ellions
ten d to be iso lated an d ra re ly c o n stitu te an e ffec tiv e th r e a t to
u rb a n e lite s, an d b o y c o tts of p u rc h a sin g agen cies are
similarly d ifficu lt to o rg a n ise a c ro ss th e c o u n try s id e . T he
ru ra l m asses a re th u s u su ally w ithout a v oice, a n d th e ir fate
is n eg lect. T hey a re left with th e option to vo te with th e ir
feet.
WHY PEOPLE MOVE
A su b sta n tia l body of re s e a rc h on r u r a l- u r b a n m igration has

been accum ulated o v e r th e la st two d e c a d e s, an d th e evidence
is overw helm ing: most people move fo r economic re a so n s.
When m ig ran ts a re a s k e d , why th e y m oved, th e y u su ally give
the b e tte r p ro s p e c ts in th e u rb a n economy as th e ir chief
r e a s o n .3 M igration stream s betw een re g io n s have b een shown
203
IN T E R N A L M IG R A T IO N IN T H E T H I R D WORLD
to c o rre s p o n d to income d iffe re n tia ls b e tw e e n th o se r e g io n s .1*

A nd o v e r tim e, a s econom ic c o n d itio n s at a lte r n a tiv e
d e s tin a tio n s c h a n g e , m ig ratio n s tre a m s sw itch a c c o rd in g ly .
R u ra l-u rb a n m igration c o n s titu te s th e a tte m p t to join an
env iro n m en t th a t o f f e r s b e tt e r life c h a n c e s in th e im m ediate
f u tu r e , o v e r a w o rk in g life , f o r th e m ig ra n t’s d e s c e n d a n ts .
T h e s ig h t o f s e v e re a n d w id e sp re a d p o v e rty in T h ird
World c itie s easily le a d s to th e a ssu m p tio n th a t m ig ra n ts did
not know w hat to e x p e c t, th a t illu s io n s a b o u t th e p r o s p e c ts
ly in g ah ead b r o u g h t them to an u rb a n e n v iro n m e n t in w hich
th e y a re tr a p p e d . In f a c t, h o w e v e r, most m ig ra n ts a re q u ite
well info rm ed b e fo re th e y move. Many h a d h e a rd th e a c c o u n ts
of e a rlie r m ig ra n ts who h a d r e tu r n e d to th e v illag e on a v isit
o r to s ta y . Some h a d b e e n ab le to v is it k in o r frie n d s in th e
c ity b e fo re d e c id in g to m ove. S tu d ie s th ro u g h o u t th e T h ird
World r e p o r t, time a n d a g a in , th a t most m ig ra n ts c o n sid e r
th a t th e y h av e im p ro v ed th e ir c o n d itio n , a n d th a t th e y a re
sa tis fie d w ith th e ir move.
M igration is r a r e ly a s o lita ry a f f a ir . E ven w hen
in d iv id u a ls m ig rate a lo n e , o th e r s ty p ic a lly a s s is t them in th e
m ove, in a d a p tin g to th e u rb a n e n v iro n m e n t, in s e c u r in g a
foothold in th e u rb a n econom y. T he e x te n d e d family u su a lly
c o n s titu te s th e c e n tra l elem ent in s u c h a n e tw o rk . R elativ es
a re most likely to h elp to p ay fo r a n e d u c a tio n th a t will
p re p a r e th e f u tu r e m ig ra n t, to p ro v id e a home fo r c h ild re n
who h av e b een se n t to tow n to p u r s u e th e ir e d u c a tio n , to
o ffe r th e new ly a r r iv e d m ig ra n t s h e lte r a n d food fo r a w hile.
Once m ig ra n ts a re e s ta b lis h e d in to w n , th e y can t h u s g e n
e ra lly b e e x p e c te d to a t tr a c t new m ig ra n ts from th e ir home
a r e a , to in itia te c h a in m ig ratio n .
C hain m ig ratio n e n c o u ra g e s d ir e c t m oves, e v e n o v e r
la rg e d is ta n c e s , in c o n tr a s t to 11s ta g e m ig ra tio n ,” i . e . mi
g r a n ts m oving to one o r s e v e ra l in te rm e d ia ry d e s tin a tio n ( s )
b e fo re re a c h in g th e ir fin al d e s tin a tio n . T h e re is in tu itiv e
app eal to th e n o tio n th a t r u r a l e m ig ra n ts go f ir s t to small
tow ns a n d , a f t e r a p e rio d o f a d a p ta tio n to th e u rb a n
e n v iro n m e n t, move on to m etro p o litan a r e a s . O r th e con cep t
o f s ta g e m ig ratio n may be s tr e tc h e d to sp a n two g e n e ra tio n s :
th e f i r s t m akes it to th e local to w n , th e se co n d in to th e c ity .
At p r e s e n t , h o w e v e r, we la c k th e d a ta to s u b s ta n tia te th e
3F o r an e x te n s iv e review of th e lit e r a tu r e on in te rn a l
m igration in A fric a , A sia , an d L atin A m erica, see Simmons,
D ia z -B riq u e ts , a n d L aquian (1 9 7 7 ); fo r a g e n e ra l review of
th e m ig ratio n lite r a tu r e th a t fo c u se s on th e o ry c o n s tru c tio n ,
Shaw (1975); fo r a c o m p re h e n siv e b ib lio g ra p h y of lite r a tu r e
on la b o u r m ig ratio n in L atin A m erica, Low der (1978).
**Yap (1977) p ro v id e s a c ritic a l review of th e econom etric
s tu d ie s th a t h a v e come to dom inate r e s e a r c h sin c e th e late
1960s.
204
IN T E R N A L M IG R A T IO N IN T H E T H I R D WORLD
view th a t sta g e m igration is a sig n ifican t mode of r u r a l- u r b a n

m igration in A frica, A sia, o r L atin America (Simmons e t a l .,
1977:29,58,95).
If m igration is em bedded in social re la tio n s, th e decision
to m igrate, also , is not a rriv e d a t in iso la tio n . G ro u p s, su ch
as fam ily, local com m unity, classm ates, evolve p a tte r n s of
beh av io u r which a re modified o v e r time a s e x p e rie n c e d ic
ta te s . Gone a re th e d a y s when e ld e rs d is a p p ro v e d o f young
men 'r u n n in g aw ay ', fo rcin g them lite ra lly to ab sco n d in th e
n ig h t. T oday, m igration is ac c e p ted v irtu a lly e v e ry w h e re , and
fre q u e n tly th e rem ittan ces of m ig ran ts fu rn is h v illa g e rs w ith
what for them a re th e lu x u rie s o f life. In some c a s e s , and
notably in S o u th ern A frica, th o se who sta y in th e ru r a l a re a s
have become d ep e n d e n t fo r th e ir livelihood on th e e a rn in g s of
those who have found u rb a n em ploym ent.
Once a p a tte r n of m igration is e s ta b lis h e d , going to town
may become th e th in g to d o , th e u rb a n e x p e rie n ce ta k e s on
positive co n n o tatio n s. T h u s , in many p a r ts o f th e Sudanic
b e lt, young men w ere e x p e c te d to have sp e n t one o r se v e ra l
spells of seasonal m igration in Ghana (R o u ch, 1956:194). Such
norms u su ally em phasise th e e x p e rie n c e to be g a in e d , an d th e
challenge to th e you n g to p ro v e th em selv es. Sometimes th e se
norms become so g en erally ac c e p ted th a t in d iv id u a ls a re sw ept
along, even when th e y do not sh a re th e economic ratio n a le for
going to th e c ity . M igration may, in th is w ay, become th e
rule fo r a comm unity. N o n eth eless, once economic circum
stan ces c h a n g e , collective m igration b eh a v io u r quickly a d a p ts
to th e new re a lity .
The p u sh from r u r a l a r e a s , an d th e p ull o f u rb a n a re a s ,
a re often d istin g u ish e d in d isc u ssio n s of m igration. R eference
to p u sh o r p u ll s e rv e s to em phasise th e im portance of a
p a rtic u la r motive in th e decision to m ig rate. R efu g ees, for
exam ple, may be said to be p u sh e d out o f th e ir ru r a l homes.
D uring th e civil s trife th a t accom panied th e P artitio n o f India
in 1947, ab o u t 16 million people fled a c ro ss th e newly e s
tab lish ed b o u n d a rie s; most o f th o se u p ro o ted from r u r a l a re a s
sought a new b e g in n in g in c itie s . War, th e man-made
calam ity, fre q u e n tly makes ru ra i a re a s so in s e c u re th a t
p e a sa n ts p ack up an d leave fo r th e re la tiv e se c u rity of c itie s.
D uring th e many y e a rs of th e blood b a th in In d o china, some
p ea sa n ts so u g h t s h e lte r in th e c itie s , th o u g h many o th e rs
were relocated by fo rce. In In d o n e sia , th e in d ep en d en ce
s tru g g le , as well a s reg io n al reb ellio n s a f te r in d e p e n d e n c e,
led to a mass exodus from th e a ffe c ted r u r a l a re a s . Civil w ars
in K orea, M alaysia, th e S o u th e rn S u d a n , a n d Zaire made
p e a sa n ts abandon th e ir a n c e s tra l la n d s . In Colombia, La
Violencia, th e violent conflict in th e c o u n try sid e w hich laste d
Tor o v er a d e cad e, was a major fa c to r in ru r a l- u r b a n
m igration acco rd in g to some o b s e rv e rs .
Elsew here d ro u g h ts , e a rth q u a k e s , c y clo n es, volcanoes,
o r floods have b ro u g h t immediate p h y sic a l d a n g e r, as well as
205
th re a te n in g h u n g e r an d d ise a se . Such d is a s te rs fre q u e n tly

make ru ra l dw ellers abandon th e ir homes and seek re lie f in
u rb a n a re a s . T hey a re commonly r e f e r r e d to as 'n a tu r a l', b u t
th e y a re man-made to th e e x te n t th a t political a c tio n , o r
in actio n , in c re a se s th e ir s e v e rity and im pact on th e affe cted
population. T h u s th e famines of th e 1970s and 1980s in
S u b sah aran A frica w ere not th e n e c e ssa ry outcome o f an ac t
of n a tu r e . T hey m ust be tra c e d f ir s t an d forem ost to th e
policies of A frican gov ern m en ts th a t did little to develop ru ra l
are a s an d left much of th e p e a s a n try in a p re c a rio u s con
d itio n , w ithout th e re s o u rc e s to deal w ith a n a tu ra l calam ity.
Not only was th e p e a s a n try d isa d v a n ta g e d in g e n e ra l, b u t
th e re were few specific e ffo rts to make m arginal lan d s le ss
v u ln erab le to d ro u g h t, e . g . by sp o n so rin g well c o n stru c tio n ,
re fo re sta tio n . In d e e d , many r u r a l a re a s lack th e ro ad s th a t
could c a rry re lie f su p p lie s: th e h u n g ry have no a lte rn a tiv e
b u t to move to u rb a n a re a s o r cam ps. The d is re g a rd o f u rb a n
decision m akers fo r th e r u r a l m asses was ex p o sed when some
governm ents re fu se d to acknow ledge famine c o n d itio n s, and
re lie f o p eratio n s w ere d elayed a s a c o n seq u en ce.
The p u sh from r u r a l a re a s is d ram atised in th e case of
re fu g e e s . Even in su ch extrem e c a s e s , h o w ever, it can be
seen th a t a com parison is in v o lv ed : th e re fu g e e s move to more
sec u re s e ttin g s . In v a ria b ly , th e decision to m igrate involves
an assessm en t of a lte rn a tiv e locations; people move to a more
prom ising en v iro n m en t. T h is is also th e case w here th e pull
looms la rg e . To tak e th e a rc h e ty p a l c a se , joining th e Gold
Rush implied a p e rc e p tio n of g re a te r o p p o rtu n itie s W estward.
T o d ay , g re a t m asses of r u r a l people a re p o tentially
mobile. And th e y a p p re c ia te th e gap betw een ru r a l a n d u rb an
s ta n d a rd s o f liv in g . Sometimes th e y a re said to be p u sh e d out
by ru ra l p o v e rty , o r to be a ttr a c te d by u rb a n o p p o rtu n itie s.
They a re more a c c u ra tely seen as com paring th e ir p ro s p e c ts
in th e ru ra l as a g a in st th e u rb a n s e ttin g , w eighing th e ir life
chan ces in th e two en v iro n m en ts.
THE URBAN LABOUR MARKET
T h ere have been tim es w hen em ployers in th e T h ird World

clam oured fo r w o rk e rs, when th e y com plained ab o u t high
ra te s of tu r n o v e r an d w id esp read ab sen teeism . In th e early
sta g e s of th e in co rp o ratio n o f th e r u r a l econom y, su b siste n c e
farm ers saw little reaso n to sell th e ir la b o u r e lsew h e re . A fter
th e abolition of s la v e ry , colonial g o v ern m en ts re s o rte d to
forced la b o u r. T h en in th e im position of ta x e s a more su b tle
means of coercion was fou n d : u n le ss th e y grew cash c ro p s o r
p a rte d w ith some of th e ir c a ttle , people w ere forced to e a rn
wages to pay th e ir ta x e s . N early e v e ry w h e re , h o w ev er, in
corp o ratio n soon c re a te d new dem ands in th e ru r a l a re a s th a t
only money could s a tis fy . T he h ig h d e g re e of self-su ffic ie n cy
206
IN T E R N A L MIGRATIO N IN T H E T H I R D WORLD
of th e tra d itio n a l farm er was compromised a s he became

dep en d en t on goods an d se rv ic e s p u rc h a s e d in th e m arket.
Some ra ise d th e cash w ithin th e ru ra l econom y, b u t many
went to work on p la n ta tio n s, in m ines, a n d in th e c itie s.
Even w here ru r a l a re a s w ere effectiv ely in c o rp o ra te d ,
lab o u r sh o rta g e s w ere common, and th e u rb a n work force was
fre q u e n tly d e sc rib e d as uncom m itted. T he level of u rb a n
w ages, and w orking an d liv in g c o n d itio n s, w ere at is s u e .
T h u s, a c h e a p -la b o u r policy c h a ra c te ris e d much o f colonial
A frica. T he policy was b u ttr e s s e d b y th e p ro p o sitio n th a t
m igrants would work le ss a t h ig h e r wage ra te s b ec au se th e y
would sta y in town only as long as n e c e ssa ry to meet a fixed
objective, th a t th e y w ere ta r g e t w o rk e rs. In most s e ttin g s ,
th e p ro p o sitio n th a t th e la b o u r-su p p ly function was th u s
b ack w ard -slo p in g b o re little relatio n sh ip to re a lity ; r a th e r , it
was a m yth th a t p ro v id e d th e ideological u n d e rp in n in g fo r a
cheap -lab o u r policy (B e rg 1961).
L abour sh o rta g e s a re a th in g of th e p a s t. For y e a rs ,
u rb a n lab o u r m ark ets th ro u g h o u t th e T h ird World have been
c h a ra c te rise d by an e x c e ss of la b o u r. T u rn o v e r and
absenteeism a re no lo n g e r of c o n c e rn ; in th e major firm s th ey
are fre q u e n tly at lev els below th o se p re v a ilin g in
in d u stria lise d c o u n trie s . Sabot (1979), in a landm ark s tu d y ,
d escrib es and an aly ses th e tran sfo rm atio n in T an zan ia. The
colonial lab o u r m arket was c h a ra c te ris e d b y a p e rs is te n t
sh o rtag e of la b o u r. G overnm ent a n d p riv a te em ployers paid
low w ages, a rg u in g th a t a t h ig h e r w ages m igrants would work
for s h o rte r p e rio d s. Sabot could fin d no evidence to su p p o rt
th is p ro p o sitio n . M oreover, even i f h ig h e r w ages w ere to
induce th e ind iv id u al m igrant to work fo r a s h o r te r p e rio d ,
th ey could also be ex p e c te d to a ttr a c t a g r e a te r num ber of
m ig ran ts. It a p p e a rs th e n th a t a small num ber o f la rg e e sta te
ow ners an d th e governm ent took a d v a n ta g e o f th e ir oligop
olistic position to ad m in ister w ages a t a level below th a t which
would a ttr a c t a su ffic ie n t num ber o f w o rk e rs. T he sh o rtfa ll
was made up in p a rt th ro u g h fo rced la b o u r u n til th e 1920s
and again d u rin g World War II, a n d th ro u g h u n sc ru p u lo u s
m ethods of re c ru itin g la b o u r in d is ta n t re g io n s. A fte r World
War II u rb a n w ages in c re a se d stead ily while r u r a l incomes
sta g n a te d . When in d ep en d en ce was g ra n te d in 1961, th e rise
in w ages a c c e lera te d . G rowth of th e r u r a l la b o u r fo rce and
th e w idening gap betw een income from farm ing an d from
u rb an wage employment in c re a se d th e size o f th e m igrant
stream , an d lab o u r s u rp lu s rep la c e d la b o u r s c a rc ity . At th e
same time a lab o u r force th a t h ad b een c h a ra c te ris e d a s
"uncom m itted" was sta b ilise d : tu r n o v e r an d mobility ra te s
became low b y in te rn a tio n a l s ta n d a r d s . Sabot e x p la in s th e
dram atic rise in w ages and th e tran sfo rm atio n o f th e problem
of lab o u r sc a rc ity in to a problem of u rb a n unem ploym ent in
term s of th e c o n v e rg e n t in te r e s ts of em p lo y ers, tr a d e u n io n s,
and g overnm ent. The a d v e n t of in d e p e n d en c e pro m p ted a
207
b u r s t of im p o rt-s u b s titu tin g in d u s tria lis a tio n ; th e se rela tiv ely

cap ita l-in te n siv e fa c to rie s had to in v e s t in tra in in g th e
in d u s tria lly discip lin ed sem i-skilled w o rk e rs th e y re q u ire d ; in
o rd e r to se c u re th is in v e stm e n t, th e la b o u r force had to be
stab ilised ; an d em ployers ra ise d w ages to th a t e n d . T he tra d e
unions w ere id e n tifie d w ith th e n atio n alist movement and
gained in s tr e n g th w ith th e em ergence of e d u c a te d le a d e rs
and th e stab ilisatio n o f th e la b o u r fo rce; th e y had only b eg u n
to develop in th e 1950s, b u t more th a n h alf th e lab o u r force
was u n io n ised b y 1965, an d th e y could b r in g p r e s s u r e to b e a r
on w ages b y b o th political action an d collective b a rg a in in g .
The governm ent le g isla te d a minimum wage in 1957 an d in
c re a se d th e w ages of low level governm ent em ployees.
MIGRATION STRATEGIES
R u ra l-u rb a n m igration co n tin u es u n a b a te d th ro u g h o u t much of

th e T h ird World. Why do so many come, th e q u e stio n usually
goes, when u rb a n unem ploym ent is w id esp read a n d u n d e r
employment common? To which a p e a sa n t might resp o n d with
th e c o u n te r q u e stio n : why do so few go , when th e r u r a l-
u rb a n gap is unm istakable? Two in te rp re ta tio n s can be
adv an ced to explain m ig rato ry b e h a v io u r u n d e r th ese
circu m stan ces; b o th e sta b lis h th a t th e decision to m igrate is a
rational re sp o n se to economic co n d itio n s. The d ifferen ce
betw een th e two in te rp re ta tio n s is a c c o u n ted fo r by v a ria tio n s
in th e s tr u c tu r e of u rb a n la b o u r m ark ets.
In T ropical A frica a n aly sis fo cused on m igrants coming in
search of jobs th a t o ffe re d w ages and w orking conditions
reg u la te d b y legislation a n d /o r collective b a rg a in in g . T hey
would sp e n d se v e ra l m onths tr y in g to se c u re su ch a job, b u t,
if u n su c c e ssfu l, e v en tu ally r e tu r n to th e v illage. T h u s in
Kampala, U ganda, H utton (1973:61-2) found a clearly
esta b lish e d p a tte rn in th e middle 1960s. Of th e unem ployed
men she in te rv ie w e d , th r e e - q u a r te r s p lan n ed to leave if th e y
could not find w ork, ty p ically w ithin le ss th a n six m onths.
More th a n th r e e - q u a r te r s of th e se in te n d e d to r e tu r n to th e ir
ru ra l home. Going home, ho w ev er, was only a tem p o rary
m easure; only 11 p e r cen t of th e unem ployed su rv e y e d felt
th a t th e y would sta y th e r e .
In th e 1950s an d 1960s much u rb a n unem ploym ent in
T ropical A frica a p p e a rs to have conform ed to th is p a tte r n .
With in d e p e n d e n c e, u rb a n w ages ro se s u b sta n tia lly in many
co u n trie s - fre q u e n tly th e specific c a u se s fo r wage in c re a s e s
w ere sim ilar to th o se d e te c te d b y Sabot in T an zan ia,
in v ariab ly th e a d v e n t of in d e p e n d e n c e ra is e d ex p e c ta tio n s th a t
governm ents ju d g e d had to be met a t le a st to some e x te n t.
R u ra l-u rb a n m igration s u r g e d , th e la b o u r sh o rta g e s th a t had
p lag u ed colonial g o v ern m en ts v a n is h e d , and u rb a n
unem ploym ent a p p e a re d . Since much la b o u r m igration had
208
IN T E R N A L M IGR ATIO N IN T H E T H I R D WORLD
been s h o rt-te rm , re c e n t im m igrants faced little com petition

from e n tre n c h e d w o rk e rs an d th e ir d e s c e n d a n ts . F u rth e rm o re ,
independence was fre q u e n tly accom panied by a sig n ifican t
expansion in u rb a n em ploym ent. T he system o f re c ru itin g
unskilled lab o u r approxim ated a random p ro c e s s . Since
minimum w ages w ere h ig h , re la tiv e to r u r a l incom es, ev en an
ex ten d ed job se a rc h was a prom ising s tr a te g y . Jo in in g th e
u rb a n unem ployed, th e r u r a l- u r b a n m igrant trie d h is lu ck at
the u rb a n job lo tte ry (G u g ler 1969).
T he p ro p o sitio n th a t p o te n tia l m ig ra n ts tak e in to account
the p ro b ab ility of s e c u rin g u rb a n em ploym ent, along w ith th e
ru ra l-u rb a n real-incom e d iffe re n tia l, was in c o rp o ra te d into a
model b y H arris an d T odaro (1968; 1 9 7 0 ).5 T he p ro b ab ility of
obtain in g u rb a n employment was d efin ed as th e p ro p o rtio n o f
th e u rb a n lab o u r force actu ally em ployed. T he assum ptions
u n d e rly in g th is definition w ere problem atic e v en fo r th e early
sta g e s of u rb a n unem ploym ent in T ropical A frica (G u g ler
1976). T he most com prehensive te s t of th e b a sic pro p o sitio n
was based on a su rv e y of 5,500 h o u seholds in seven
Tanzanian tow ns in 1971. An a n aly sis of th e p ro p e n sity to
m igrate acco rd in g to level of ed ucation p ro v id e d evid en ce for
the sig n ifican t role of b o th , r u r a l- u r b a n income d iffe re n tia ls
and u rb a n employment p ro b a b ilitie s. In c o n tra s t to H arris and
T odaro, how ever, th e employment p ro b a b ility was defined as
th e ratio of th e n et num ber of jobs c re a te d o v e r a four-m onth
perio d (th e estim ated a v e ra g e time sp e n t in th e job s e a rc h ) to
th e num ber of unem ployed (S abot 1979:120-27).
In re tro s p e c t it is c le a r th a t th e u rb a n job lo tte ry
p a tte rn o c c u rre d in excep tio n al c ircu m stan ces. More
commonly, lab o u r tu rn o v e r is low , job c re atio n slow , and
recru itm en t a n y th in g b u t random in T h ird World c o u n trie s . A
more g en erally applicable in te rp re ta tio n of r u r a l-u rb a n
m igration h as to focus on th e fact th a t la b o u r m a rk e ts, like
most m ark ets, a re frag m en ted in a v a rie ty o f w ays, i . e .
d ifferen t c a teg o ries of people enjoy d iffe re n tia l acce ss to
e arn in g o p p o rtu n itie s. A ccess is u su ally la rg e ly a fu n ctio n of
th re e c rite ria : ed u catio n an d tr a in in g , g e n d e r, and
p a tro n a g e . D ifferential access in tu r n sh a p e s th e com position
of th e m igrant stream . T he role of formal ed u catio n as a
p re re q u isite fo r access to th e more p riv ile g e d s tr a ta m otivates
p a re n ts in ru ra l a re a s an d small tow ns to relo cate with th e ir
ch ild ren o r to send th e ir c h ild re n away to b e tte r an d more
p re stig io u s schools. For th o se who h av e asc en d ed th e e d
ucational la d d e r, th e most a ttra c tiv e c a re e r o p p o rtu n itie s a re
5For an account of s u b s e q u e n t m odifications o f th e model, see

Todaro (1976:36-45). R ecently H arris an d Sabot (1982) have
p ro p o sed a g en eralised model of m igration an d job se a rc h in
th e con tex t of wage d isp e rsio n an d im p erfect in form ation, o f
which th e H a rris-T o d a ro model is a special c a se .
209
I NT ER NAL MI GRATI ON IN T HE T H I R D WORLD
in th e c ity . Where new in d u s tr ie s have re c ru ite d s u b s ta n tia l

num bers of women, as in South K orea and in T h ailan d , the
p ro p o rtio n of women among r u r a l- u r b a n m ig ran ts has
in c re a se d .
'C re d e n tia ls' a re g en erally accep ted a s a sc re e n in g
device, and discrim ination on th e b a sis of sex is commonly
ta k e n fo r g ra n te d . P a tro n a g e , in c o n tr a s t, is usually frow ned
upon. It is , h ow ever, w id e sp re a d , su s ta in e d a s it is by
stro n g in te r e s ts an d effe c tiv e m echanism s. Most m ig ra n ts, as
we noted b e fo re , ex p ect an d o btain a ssista n c e from u rb a n
co n ta c ts. T he u rb a n h o s t, to help th e new a rriv a l, to relieve
th e b u rd e n of h o u sin g and p e rh a p s e v en of feeding him, has
good reaso n to find him w ork. T h u s m ig ran ts who have
se c u re d employment in tro d u c e th e ir re la tiv e s and o th e r people
from 'hom e' to th e ir firm . Many em ployers find su c h 'family
b ro k e ra g e ' convenient and even a d v a n ta g e o u s. T hey know
th a t sk ills and know ledge a re not as im portant fo r many
p o sitio n s as o th e r q u a litie s: d e p e n d a b ility , p o te n tia l for
tra in in g , p e rs is te n c e , in itia tiv e . F u r th e r , in many c a s e s , job
ad v e rtise m e n ts will g e n e ra te all too many applications from
people with sim ilar q u alificatio n s. In su ch c ircu m stan ces th e
em ployer p re f e r s to u se a b ro k e r. He se le c ts among his
em ployees one o r two p e rs o n s he t r u s t s , an d a sk s them for
suitab le c a n d id a te s, whom th e y will p ro b ab ly have to tra in .
The b ro k e r will look to h is e x te n d e d family fo r su itab le
ca n d id a te s, and draw up a sh o rt lis t. He may coach a
cand id ate on how to fill in th e application form s, and on how
to re a c t at th e in te rv ie w . A close and complex rela tio n sh ip
th u s a ris e s betw een th e em ployer, th e b r o k e r , and th e new
em ployee. T he b ro k e r h as in c re a se d th e socio-economic
position of h is kin g ro u p an d h is own s ta n d in g w ithin i t , th e
unem ployed h as o b tain ed a jo b , and th e em ployer can e x e rt
lev erag e o v er his employee th ro u g h th e b ro k e r (In te rn a tio n a l
Labour Office 1972: 509-10). B ecause of su ch p a rtic u la ris tic
recru itm en t p a tte r n s , m ig ran ts of common o rigin te n d to
c lu s te r in c e rta in jo b s an d tr a d e s , th e la b o u r m arket is
segm ented.
T he segm entation of th e u rb a n la b o u r m arket is m irrored
in th e stream of m ig ra n ts. T h e ir p ro s p e c ts v a ry w idely, b u t,
at le a s t, th e y a re reaso n ab ly well d efin ed fo r m any. The
in te g ra tio n of new a rriv a ls in to th e u rb a n lab o u r m arket is
th e re b y e ased . In d e e d , unem ploym ent is fre q u e n tly re p o rte d
lower among th e m ig ran ts th a n among th e u rb a n - b o rn . D is
con ten t o v e r discrim ination does not c ry sta lliz e as long as the
c rite ria fo r p riv ile g e d access v a ry from one little niche in th e
u rb a n economy to th e n e x t. In many c o u n trie s , how ever,
larg e segm ents of th e lab o u r m arket a p p e a r a s th e exclu siv e
p re s e rv e of a racial o r e th n ic g ro u p , and b itte r conflicts
among im m igrants an d lo cals, o r among im m igrant g ro u p s ,
e n su e .
210
I N T E R N A L M I G R A T I O N IN T H E T H I R D WORLD
WHO MIGRATES?
G iven th e r u r a l- u r b a n g a p , w holesale e m ig ra tio n from th e

d is a d v a n ta g e d r u r a l a r e a s m ight be e x p e c te d . B u t th e c itie s
a re le ss th a n h o sp ita b le to new im m ig ra n ts; only th e h ig h ly
tr a in e d , well c o n n e c te d , a n d h a rd y v e n tu r e th e r e . T he strea m
th a t a p p e a rs enorm ous a t th e u rb a n e n d c o n s titu te s only a
small p ro p o rtio n o f th e r u r a l p o p u la tio n .
T h e re a re m ajor d iffe re n c e s am ong m ig ra n ts in te rm s of
socio-econom ic b a c k g r o u n d , a n d a c c o rd in g ly th e ir u rb a n
p r o s p e c ts v a r y . At one e n d o f th e sp e c tru m a re th e many
who a re p o o r, a n d ill-e q u ip p e d fo r a n y b u t th e most menial
ta s k s : some come from n e g le c te d a n d im p o v e rish e d re g io n s ,
e .g . m uch of B u rk in a (U p p e r V o lta ), o th e r s o rig in a te from
th e low er s tr a t a o f q u ite d iff e r e n tia te d com m unities, e . g .
village In d ia ; w ith few e x c e p tio n s th e y h av e little sch o o lin g
a n d a re b a r r e d from most o f th e more re w a rd in g o p p o r
tu n itie s . At th e o th e r e n d o f th e s p e c tru m is th e m ig ran t
from an u n u su a lly d e v e lo p e d re g io n , o r more ty p ic a lly a
member o f a p riv ile g e d r u r a l m in o rity , who a tte n d s th e b e tte r
schools a n d clim bs th e e d u c a tio n a l la d d e r h ig h e n o u g h to gain
acc e ss to a p ro m isin g c a r e e r in p u b lic a d m in is tra tio n , w ith a
major com p an y , o r a s a p ro fe s s io n a l.
Y oung a d u lts alw ay s p re d o m in a te am ong m ig ra n ts in
se a rc h o f em ploym ent. T h e y a re u su a lly u n m a rrie d ; b u t even
when m a rrie d , th e y h av e le s s a t s ta k e in th e r u r a l a r e a s th a n
th e ir e ld e r s . T h ey f re q u e n tly lack c o n tro l o v e r r e s o u r c e s ,
lan d in p a r tic u la r , a n d w ield little p o w e r in local a f f a ir s . To
p u t it in to u n iv e rs a l te rm s : th e y a re a t a tr a n s itio n a l s ta g e
betw een ad o lescen ce a n d ad u lth o o d a n d n o t y e t firm ly com
m itted to an a d u lt role in th e local s e ttin g . F o r th a t v e ry
reaso n th e y enjoy an a d v a n ta g e in th e u r b a n econom y: le s s
e s ta b lis h e d , th e y a re more a d a p ta b le to th e d if fe re n t dem ands
of th e u rb a n e n v iro n m e n t. A nd i f m ig ration e n ta ils a c c e p tin g
m arginal e a rn in g s in th e h ope o f e v e n tu a lly s e c u r in g a
p ro te c te d job o r s a tis f a c to r y se lf-e m p lo y m e n t, th e n th e
p o te n tia l re w a rd s a re h ig h e s t fo r th e y o u n g s t a r t i n g on a
lifetim e u rb a n c a r e e r .
T he m ig ratio n o f women h a s re c e iv e d sc a n t a tte n tio n in
th e h u g e m igration l i t e r a t u r e . When m arria g e r e q u ir e s mi
g ra tio n , it is u su a lly th e woman who m oves. F or th a t re a so n
in a c o u n try su c h a s In d ia women o u tn u m b e r men in to ta l
r u r a l- u r b a n m ig ra tio n , e v e n th o u g h men p re d o m in ate in n e t
ru r a l- u r b a n m ig ra tio n . If we a re c o n c e rn e d w ith th e la t t e r ,
w ith th e r e d is tr ib u tio n o f th e p o p u la tio n th r o u g h m ig ra tio n ,
u rb a n se x ra tio s s u g g e s t c o n sid e ra b le v a ria tio n in th e se x
se le c tiv ity of n e t r u r a l- u r b a n m ig ratio n (T a b le 7 .1 ) .
S ou th A sia conform s b e s t to th e s te r e o ty p e th a t women
move u su a lly a s d e p e n d e n ts , a n d a re th e r e f o r e o u tn u m b e re d
by men some o f whom a re u n m a rrie d o r h a v e le ft th e ir w ives
b e h in d . In th is re g io n , men o u tn u m b e r women in th e c itie s b y
211
I N T E R N A L MI G R AT I O N IN T H E T H I R D WORLD
a la rg e m argin in e v e r y c o u n tr y . T h e im balance is som ew hat

re d u c e d , b u t rem ains s u b s ta n tia l, w hen u rb a n sex r a tio s a re
a d ju s te d fo r th e fact th a t men o u tn u m b e r women also in th e
to ta l p o p u la tio n o f e ach of th e s e c o u n tr ie s (F e r r e e a n d G u g le r
1985). In most c o u n trie s in th e M iddle E ast a n d N o rth A frica ,
men also o u tn u m b e r women in th e u r b a n p o p u la tio n , b u t ,
e x c e p t fo r T u r k e y , b y a sm aller m arg in ; th is m argin is
f u r th e r re d u c e d w hen u rb a n se x ra tio s a re a d ju s te d fo r
n atio n a l se x r a tio s . Morocco is a n o tab le e x c e p tio n ,
p re su m a b ly b e c a u se of th e a b s e n c e o f u r b a n men who a re
w o rk in g in E u ro p e . T h e m ajor c o u n trie s o f S u b s a h a ra n A frica
re p o r t a c o n sid e ra b le e x c e s s o f men o v e r women in th e ir
c itie s . E th io p ia , h o w e v e r, c o n s titu te s an im p o rta n t e x c e p tio n
th a t may re fle c t a feu d al p a t te r n in w hich a fflu e n t u rb a n
h o u se h o ld s a ttr a c t a d is p ro p o rtio n a te n u m b e r o f women in one
g u ise o r a n o th e r . In E ast A sia, th e low u r b a n se x ra tio in
th e P h ilip p in e s is re m a rk a b le .
L atin A m erica a n d th e C a rib b e a n s ta n d in s h a r p c o n tra s t
to o th e r T h ir d World re g io n s . T h e y resem b le d ev elo p ed
c o u n trie s in th a t women o u tn u m b e r men in th e u rb a n a r e a s ,
th ro u g h o u t th e re g io n . In some c o u n trie s women p red o m in a te
b y a la rg e m arg in . It w ould a p p e a r th e n th a t s u b s ta n tia l
n u m b ers o f women move on th e ir o w n , a p a tte r n r a re ly e n
c o u n te re d else w h e re in th e T h ird W orld. T he u n ifo rm ity of
th e p a t t e r n , a n d its o c c u rre n c e in th e P h ilip p in e s, th e only
L atin T h ird World c o u n try o u ts id e th e A m ericas, s u g g e s t a
c u ltu ra l in te r p r e ta tio n . While most T h ird World c u ltu r e s
e n c o u ra g e e a rly m a rria g e a n d c h ild - b e a r in g , th e common
h e rita g e o f L atin c o u n trie s in c lu d e s a re lig io u s e th o s th a t
e x a lts th e s ta tu s of th e sin g le w o m an .6 Y oung L atin women
th u s a re p o te n tia lly mobile in d e p e n d e n t o f a s p o u s e . F aced
w ith lim ited r u r a l o p p o r tu n itie s , th e y t u r n to th e c itie s w here
many h o u se h o ld s can a ffo rd to o f fe r them th e low p a y and
lim ited b e n e fits th a t go w ith d om estic s e r v ic e . E v e ry w h e re
y o u n g a d u lts a re th e most lik ely to move b e c a u se th e y a r e a t
a tra n s itio n a l s ta g e b etw een a d o le sc e n c e a n d a d u lth o o d , b u t
th e le n g th o f th is s ta g e v a r ie s a good d eal a c ro s s c u ltu r e s -
esp ecially f o r women.
PATTERNS OF MIGRATION
T he movement o f in d iv id u a ls is th e fo c u s o f much m igration

a n a ly s is . T h is te n d e n c y is e n c o u ra g e d b y th e fa c t th a t
m igration f re q u e n tly in v o lv e s y o u n g s in g le p e r s o n s . H ow ever,
in m any c a se s m ig ratio n is n o t ju s t a once fo r all move,
r a th e r th e r e a re a n u m b e r o f moves o v e r a lifetim e. S uch a
61 am in d e b te d to F ra n c in e v a n de Walle f o r th is o b s e rv a tio n .
212
I N T ER N AL MI GRAT I ON IN T H E T H I R D WORLD
m igratory c a re e r is b e s t u n d e rsto o d w ith re fe re n c e to family

and community. T h re e p rin c ip a l p a tte r n s o f ru r a l- u r b a n mi
gratio n in th e T h ird World th e n s ta n d o u t: (a ) tem porary
m igration of men; (b ) family m igration to u rb a n a re a s followed
by r e tu r n m igration to th e community of o rig in ; a n d (c)
perm anent settlem en t.
T hese a re not fix ed s ta tu s e s . T he man who le ft his
family beh in d may decide to have them join him; th e family
th a t ex p ected to r e tu r n to i t s community of o rig in may se ttle
down in th e c ity fo re v e r. While c h a n g e s in m igratory s ta tu s ,
as p erceiv ed b y th e m ig ra n t, ty p ically go in th e d ire ctio n of
an in c re a sin g commitment to th e place of d e s tin a tio n , th e y are
clearly a ffected by ch a n g in g circu m stan ces in b o th th e u rb a n
environm ent an d th e a re a of o rig in , e . g . d e te rio ra tin g u rb a n
conditions may force men to sen d th e ir families b ack to the
village.
T he p re p o n d e ra n ce of men o v e r women in net r u ra l-
u rb a n m igration in South A sia, in much of S u b sa h a ra n A frica,
and in O ceania (F e rre e an d G ugler 1985) re fle c ts the
ten d en cy of male m ig ran ts to leave wife an d c h ild re n in th e ir
ru ra l a re a of o rig in . If th e In d u s tria l R evolution e n g e n d e re d
the d istin ctio n of w orkplace and home, th e sep a ra tio n of
w orker and d e p e n d e n ts h a s been d ra stic a lly m agnified for
many T h ird World fam ilies. E x ten d ed family su p p o rt typically
facilitates such sim ultaneous involvem ent in th e u rb a n an d th e
ru ra l economy. In d e e d , th e a ssista n c e o f male k in in c e rta in
ta s k s , an d th e p ro te c tio n th e y a ffo rd , fre q u e n tly a p p e a rs as
a p re re q u is ite for a wife to manage th e farm an d to hold h e r
own in a m ale-dom inated en v iro n m en t.
The m igration of in d iv id u a ls, w h e th e r single o r se p a ra te d
from th e ir family, h a s d istin c t economic a d v a n ta g e s: it
optim ises lab o u r allocation, a n d , at le a st in r u r a l-u r b a n
m igration, it minimizes th e cost of s u b s is te n c e . Employers
save on w ages and re tire m e n t b e n e fits, an d p u b lic a u th o ritie s
face le ss dem and fo r h o u sin g an d in f r a s tr u c tu r e . B ut th e re
are also g ain s to m ig ran ts th a t m otivate them to accep t family
se p a ra tio n . L iving c o sts in th e c ity a re h ig h , while u rb a n
earn in g o p p o rtu n itie s fo r women a re u su a lly v e ry lim ited in
th e se re g io n s. T ypically wife an d c h ild re n rem ain on a family
farm grow ing th e ir own food, an d p e rh a p s ev en ra isin g cash
c ro p s. Where land is communally co n tro lled an d cannot be
alien ated , as is th e case in much of T ro p ical A frica, th e r e is
no com pensation fo r th o se who give up farm ing i t . A wife who
comes to town h as to abandon an a s s u re d so u rce o f income to
join a h u sb a n d on low w ages.
T h ro u g h o u t Latin America th e predom inance o f women in
th e u rb a n population s u g g e s ts th a t th e te m p o ra ry m igration o f
men to cities is not a common p a tte r n . H ow ever, some Indian
communities p re s e n t an ex cep tio n to th is g en era lisa tio n . T hey
d em o n strate th e cru cial role of r u r a l social s tr u c tu r e in th e
estab lish m en t and m aintenance of sp ecific p a tte r n s of
213
I N T ER N AL MI GRATI ON IN T HE T H I R D WORLD
m igration. Laite (1981), in h is s tu d y of la b o u r m igration in

highland P e ru , d e sc rib e s an d an a ly se s a w id e -sp re a d p a tte r n
of tem porary m igration of men. T h u s , th e m ajority of m iners
and re fin e ry w o rk ers a re m ig ra n ts, an d n e arly all th e se
m ig ran ts m aintain village in te r e s ts . T he most im p o rtan t
in te re s t is in village la n d , even th o u g h lan d h a s in c re a sin g ly
been tran sfo rm ed in to a commodity an d b ro u g h t in to th e cash
aren a since th e 19th c e n tu ry . T h re e -g e n e ra tio n e x te n d e d
families continue to co n tro l p ro p e rty an d to o rg a n ise p ro
ductio n . The sen io r g en eratio n owns th e re so u rc e s while o th e r
members of th e family w ork on them . So, w hilst ju n io r mem
b e rs of th e household a re 'la n d le s s ', th e y do have acc ess to
lan d . T he m igration of o n e, o r s e v e ra l, men p ro v id e s e x te rn a l
re so u rc e s to meet household n e e d s. D u rin g th e ir a b se n c e , it
is th e women who do th e w ork, o r , a t p la n tin g and h a rv e st
tim e, re c ru it la b o u r. T h e ir ta s k is facilitated by c o -o p era tiv e
p ra c tic e s well e sta b lish e d in A ndean p e a sa n t c u ltu re .
Family se p a ra tio n h a s commonly ta k en th e form of
c irc u la r m ig ra tio n .7 A fter a p e rio d of employment la stin g six
m onths, p e r h a p s , o r a couple of y e a r s , th e m igrant r e tu r n s
fo r an ex ten d ed stay w ith h is fam ily. In th e ideal c a s e , th e
re tu r n coincides with p eak la b o u r re q u ire m en ts on th e farm .
In some a r e a s , such m ig ran ts go a s c o n tra c t la b o u r, i . e . ,
th ey a re re c ru ite d fo r a fixed p erio d of time a t, o r close b y ,
th e ir home p lace, and p ro v id ed w ith r e tu r n tra n s p o rta tio n .
R epetition of th e c irc u la r movement is common, an d many
m ig ran ts b u ild up e x te n d e d u rb a n e x p e rie n c e . It is tem pting
to specu late th a t c irc u la r m igration is th e in itia l re sp o n se of a
'tra d itio n a l' society to new o p p o rtu n itie s to e a rn w ages and
acq u ire m anufactured g oods, to v isu alise 'trib e sm e n ' making
sh o rt fo ray s in to an alien en v iro n m en t. T he fa c ts indicate
oth erw ise. M igration h a s been a p erm an en t fe a tu re of highland
P eru since p e a sa n ts w ent to w ork in th e mines d u rin g the
Inca p erio d ; h a lf a millenium la te r a p a tte r n of tem porary
m igration p e r s is ts . In In d o n esia, w here c irc u la r m igration was
well esta b lish e d d u rin g th e colonial p e rio d , it h a s since
g reatly in c re a se d in im portance (H ugo 1983). And a review of
m igration re se a rc h in th e Pacific isla n d s concludes by
em phasising th e p e rs is te n c e of c irc u la r m igration d u rin g 150
y e a rs of E uropean co n tact (B ed fo rd 1973:126).® C irc u lar
m igration in th e se a re a s to d a y , as in T ropical A frica in th e
p a s t, is a function of th e re c ru itm e n t of men a t low w ages.
7For a re c e n t review of some of th e th e o re tic a l d e b a te s o v er

c irc u la r m igration see M itchell (1985).
®Goldstein (1978) review s th e lite r a tu r e on v ario u s form s of
tem porary m igration in A sia, an d in p a r tic u la r in S ou th -E ast
A sia. He em phasises th a t r e tu r n m igration, an d in p a rtic u la r
c irc u la r m igration is much more common th a n th e sta n d a rd
stu d ie s b ased on c e n su s d ata rev eal.
214
Where em ployees h a v e a c c e s s only to b a c h e lo r accom m odation,

b o th a s p e c ts - th e ch eap la b o u r policy an d th e lim itation of
re c ru itm e n t to men - a re b ro u g h t in to s h a rp re lie f. Most
s tr ik in g ly , in e n v iro n m e n ts th u s c h a r a c te r is e d b y c irc u la r
m ig ra tio n , major em p lo y ers a r e ab le to e s ta b lis h a more sta b le
la b o u r fo rce b y p ro v id in g c o n d itio n s th a t e n c o u ra g e w o rk e rs
to b r in g th e ir w ives a n d c h ild re n .
C irc u la r m ig ratio n was common in T ro p ic a l A frica in
colonial d a y s . H ow ever, th e Union M inière d u H aut K atanga
ch a n g e d its la b o u r p olicy in th e c o p p e r m ines in w hat is now
Shaba P ro v in c e , Z aire, a s e a rly a s 1927. A m easu re o f com
pulsion was in v o lv e d in th a t w o rk e rs h a d to b r in g th e ir
w iv es, b u t th e re g io n soon b o a s te d a s ta b le la b o u r fo rc e . By
1957 th e a v e ra g e le n g th o f s e rv ic e o f A frican em ployees in th e
K atanga m ines w as e le v e n y e a r s . In th e C o p p e rb e lt, in w hat
is now Zam bia, a policy to e s ta b lis h a p e rm a n e n t fo rce was
in ita te d in 1940: p e rm a n e n t accom m odations fo r m arried
em ployees w ere made a v ailab le a n d th e s ta n d a r d o f h o u sin g
im p ro v e d , a d e q u a te sch o o lin g in th e u rb a n a re a s w as p r o
v id e d , an d a p e n sio n schem e in s titu te d . T h e a v e ra g e le n g th
o f em ploym ent o f A frican w o rk e rs in c r e a s e d from fo u r a n d a
h a lf y e a r s in 1956 to se v e n in 1964. In s h a rp c o n tr a s t, th e
S o u th A frican gold m ines c o n tin u e d to r e c r u it la b o u r on
s h o rt-te rm c o n tr a c ts from a d ja c e n t a re a s th ro u g h o u t th e se
y e a r s (Wilson 1972:123-27).
In p a r t s of B ritis h Colonial A fric a , as well a s on some
Pacific is la n d s , c irc u la r m igration was n o t ju s t th e outcom e o f
policies a d o p te d b y e m p lo y e rs: te m p o ra ry so jo u rn of in d ig e n
o us w o rk e rs in u rb a n a r e a s was p o litically in te n d e d , a n d
p o licies w ere a d o p te d to th a t p u rp o s e . In S o uth A fric a , th e
gold m ines a re p ro h ib ite d b y law from p ro v id in g family accom
modation fo r more th a n 3 p e r c e n t o f th e ir A frican w ork
fo rc e . Many men a r e r e c r u ite d on s h o r t- te r m c o n tr a c ts , not
only in th e m in es, b u t in v a rio u s o th e r s e c to rs o f th e
econom y. T he n u m b er o f A frican m ig ra n ts in th e c o u n try h as
b een e stim ated a t a b o u t h a lf o f th o s e in r e g is te r e d em ploym ent
(T u ro k a n d Maxey 1976:241). F u rth e rm o re , o v e r th e la s t two
d e c a d e s , m ajor e f f o r ts h a v e b een d ire c te d to w ard u p ro o tin g
th e m any A frican s who h a v e b e e n lo n g s e ttle d in u rb a n a re a s .
Racial o p p re ssio n h a s th u s c re a te d a p a ra d o x : th e most
in d u s tria lis e d c o u n try on th e c o n tin e n t, w h ere la rg e n u m b e rs
o f A frican s h a v e w o rk ed in m ines, f a c to r ie s , a n d s e rv ic e s for
se v e ra l g e n e ra tio n s , h a s th e h ig h e s t p ro p o rtio n o f s h o rt-te rm
r e c r u its in i t s la b o u r fo rc e .
C irc u la r m ig ratio n c o n s titu te s an a d a p ta tio n to family
se p a ra tio n : th e m ig ran t r e t u r n s r e g u la rly to h is wife a n d
c h ild re n fo r e x te n d e d p e rio d s of tim e, a n d he rem ains activ ely
in v o lv ed in th e e x te n d e d fam ily, a n d in d e e d in v illag e a ff a irs .
T h is s tr a te g y fa ils w ith th e a p p e a ra n c e of u rb a n unem ploy
m ent. When th e s e a rc h fo r a job ta k e s m o n th s, c irc u la r mi
g ra tio n is no lo n g e r a v iab le p ro p o s itio n . T h e m ig ran t who
215
w ants to be a s s u re d of u rb a n employment h a s to cling to his

job. In ste a d of e x te n d e d s ta y s w ith th e family th e re a re s h o rt
v is its , as employment co nditions and d ista n ce p e rm it. What
had been an economic cost to em ployers - a lab o u r force
c h a ra c te rise d by h ig h tu r n o v e r an d absenteeism - h a s become
an in c re a se in social co sts for w o rk e rs: more se v e re s tra in s
in th e ir re la tio n sh ip s w ith w ife, c h ild re n , ex te n d e d family,
and village com m unity. T he fre q u e n c y of v is its v a rie s a g re a t
deal. As im proved means of tr a n s p o r t a re in tro d u c e d , and
th e ir cost d e c re a se s , m onthly o r ev en weekly commuting
become more common. B ut in a c o u n try su ch a s In d ia , many
m igrants co v er co n sid erab le d ista n c e s an d can v isit th e ir
families only d u rin g th e ir an n u al leav e.
T he p re p o n d e ra n ce of men in th e u rb a n population has
sh a rp ly declined in a num ber of c o u n trie s o v er th e la st two
decad es, s u g g e s tin g th a t family se p a ra tio n is becom ing a less
common p a tte r n . T h ere is no ev idence to su g g e st th a t u rb a n
e a rn in g o p p o rtu n itie s for women have m arkedly im proved,
save in a few rap id ly in d u s tria lis in g c o u n trie s such a s South
Korea an d T h ailan d . C e rta in ly , as th e p erio d o f u rb a n
employment h as le n g th e n e d , family se p a ra tio n has become a
less sa tisfa c to ry p a tte r n . At th e same tim e, in c re a se s in
u rb a n w ages have dim inished th e sig n ificance of th e ru ra l
income forgone and of th e u r b a n / r u r a l cost o f liv in g
d iffe re n tia l. Also, in some a r e a s , la n d sh o rta g e s e n ta ilin g a
decline in o u tp u t o r th e , o ften re la te d , breakdow n of
communal co n tro l o v e r land tra n sfo rm in g it in to an a sse t th a t
can be re a lis e d , have re d u c e d th e o p p o rtu n ity cost of
abandoning farm ing.
S ettlin g down in town w ith a family is usually fo r the
long term , many times fo r a w orking life , b u t it does not
always sig n ify a p erm anent move. S tro n g tie s to m em bers of
the e x te n d e d family who have sta y e d b e h in d , an d to the
village com munity, can make an e v e n tu a l r e tu r n an a ttra c tiv e
p ro p o sitio n . At th e same time most m ig ra n ts, even w hen th e y
manage to su p p o rt a family in th e u rb a n s e ttin g , enjoy little
economic s e c u rity . Unemployment an d underem ploym ent a re
w id esp read , b u t few qualify fo r unem ploym ent com pensation.
And social s e c u rity system s co v e rin g disablem ent an d old age
a re still in th e ir in fa n c y . For many u rb a n d w e llers, th e
solid arity o f th e village p ro v id e s an a lte rn a tiv e social
s e c u rity , meagre b u t reliab le. P len tifu l lan d u n d e r communal
con tro l is still a common p a tte r n in T ropical A frica an d th e
Pacific. In su ch a situ a tio n th e m igrant can m aintain his
position in th e ru r a l com m unity, an d ev en d u rin g an e x te n d e d
u rb a n c a re e r rem ain a s s u re d of acc e ss to land on h is r e tu r n .
A review of su rv e y d ata for five West A frican c o u n trie s
showed in e v e ry case a s u b s ta n tia l p ro p o rtio n of th e m igrants
in d icatin g th e in te n t to r e tir e in th e ir home a re a (G u g ler and
Flanagan 1978b). In communities in which r e tu r n m igration is
a common p a tte r n , th e re is a ten d en cy fo r it to be e sta b lish e d
216
I N T ER N A L MI GRATI ON IN T H E T H I R D WORLD
as a c u ltu ra l norm , ju s t as in th e case o f ru r a l- u r b a n

m igration. R a th e r th a n acknow ledging th e economic im pera
tiv e , th e norm of r e tu r n m igration is ty p ically a rtic u la te d as
an ideology of loyalty to th e home com m unity.
In p a r ts of A frica, in much of A sia, an d especially in
Latin A m erica, most m ig ran ts h av e little p ro s p e c t of main
tain in g access to a g ric u ltu ra l land b e c au se of population
p re s s u r e a n d /o r in stitu tio n a l c o n s tra in ts . Wholely d e p en d e n t
on th e ir u rb a n e a rn in g s , th e y have become p ro le ta ria n iz e d .
In ste a d of p la n n in g fo r a r e tu r n to th e v illa g e, th e y p r e s s
for th e p ro v ision of social se c u rity to u rb a n w o rk e rs. And
th e y se a rc h fo r so u rc e s of e a rn in g s o u tsid e o f em ploym ent.
Escaping th e v a g a rie s of employment is a major a ttra c tio n in
e sta b lish in g o n e 's own b u s in e s s . O w nership of a home, how
e v e r ru d im e n ta ry , g iv es th e a ssu ra n c e of accommodation and
o ffe rs th e p o ssib ility of d e riv in g income from r e n t. The
s tre n g th of s q u a tte r movements in Latin America may be
u n d e rsto o d at least in p a r t in term s of th e need fo r m ig ran ts
who have se v e re d th e ir ru ra l connection to e sta b lish an u rb a n
b ase .
T he dem ands made b y m ig ran ts on th e u rb a n system
th u s will v a ry acco rd in g to th e ir p la n s for th e f u tu r e . Single
m ig ran ts e x p ect little . In d e e d , th e lim ited p ro s p e c ts th e y face
are th e key reaso n th e m arried le ft th e ir family b e h in d . T hey
will te n d to opt fo r a minimum of e x p e n d itu re fo r h o u sin g ,
which will allow ta rg e t m ig ran ts to s h o rte n th e ir sta y and
enable o th e rs to in c re a se th e ir rem ittan ces an d sa v in g s.
M igrants who an tic ip a te ev en tu ally r e tu r n in g to th e ir a re a of
o rig in will rem ain co n cern ed w ith co n ditions th e r e . For
perm anent m ig ran ts th e p ro v isio n of s e c u rity in th e u rb a n
s e ttin g , especially in old a g e , becom es c ru c ia l.
In d elin eatin g th e se th re e p a tte r n s o f m igration I have
given co n sid erab le em phasis to in te n d e d , a s a g a in st a c tu a l,
m igratory b e h a v io u r. T h e re is some q u e stio n , h o w ever,
w h eth er a la rg e p ro p o rtio n of m ig ra n ts re a lise th e ir p la n s to
r e tu r n to th e ir a re a of o rig in . In d e e d , it is fre q u e n tly
assum ed th a t th e m ajority will en d th e ir liv es in th e cities
(Lloyd 1979:136). I am not so s u r e . What little d a ta th e r e are
su g g e s t th a t many m ig ran ts do r e tir e to th e ru r a l com m unity.
In any c a se , many of th e im plications of r e tu r n , as d istin c t
from p e rm a n e n t, m igration hold, w h e th e r th e in te n tio n to
re tu r n is ultim ately re a lise d o r n o t; th e y hold as long as
m ig ran ts act upon th e ir assum ption th a t one day th e y will
se ttle down 'b a c k hom e'.
MIGRATION POLICY
The pace of u rb a n grow th in th e T h ird World, w ithout p r e

ced en t in hum an h is to r y , is a m atter fo r c o n c e rn . Policies to
slow down n a tu ra l population grow th a re an obvious re s p o n s e ,
217
sin ce it a c c o u n ts fo r more th a n h a lf of u r b a n g ro w th in most

T h ird World c o u n trie s (U n ite d N ations 1980:24). H ow ever,
u n le s s co ercio n is em p lo y ed , c h a n g e s in p ro c re a tiv e b e h a v io u r
a re r a t h e r slow , a n d th e y a ffe c t th e la b o u r m ark et only a f te r
a c o n sid e ra b le la g . In c o n tr a s t, th e m ajority of r u r a l- u r b a n
m ig ra n ts a re r e a d y to e n te r th e la b o u r fo rc e . If th e y co n
tr ib u te b etw een o n e - th ir d a n d o n e -h a lf to u rb a n g ro w th , th e y
c o n s titu te a c o n s id e ra b ly h ig h e r p ro p o rtio n of th e new
e n tr a n ts in to th e la b o u r fo rc e . Not s u r p r is in g ly th e n most
T h ird World g o v e rn m e n ts g ro p e fo r p o licies to slow down
ru r a l- u r b a n m ig ra tio n . A 1983 U n ited N ations s u rv e y of 129
g o v e rn m e n ts of le ss d ev elo p ed c o u n trie s fo u n d th a t only six
co n sid e re d th e d is tr ib u tio n o f th e ir p o p u la tio n s *a p p r o p r ia te 1;
th r e e - q u a r t e r s s ta te d th a t th e y w ere p u r s u in g policies to slow
down o r e v e n r e v e r s e in te r n a l m ig ratio n (U n ite d N ations 1983:
ta b le x x ii.3 ) .
T h e c a se fo r policies to re d u c e r u r a l- u r b a n m ig ratio n is
s tre n g th e n e d i f th e r a te o f u rb a n is a tio n in th e T h ird World
to d a y , while not w ith o u t h is to ric a l p r e c e d e n t, is se e n as
c o n s titu tin g o v e ru rb a n is a tio n : r u r a l- u r b a n m ig ra tio n , w hich
in v o lv es th e o p p o rtu n ity c o st of r u r a l o u tp u t fo rg o n e , b r in g s
w o rk e rs to c itie s th a t a re u n a b le to fu lly em ploy th e ir e x is t
in g la b o u r fo rc e to p ro d u c tiv e e n d s ; fu rth e rm o re th e s e a d
ditio n al u rb a n d w e lle rs re q u ir e more re s o u rc e s fo r th e ir
su rv iv a l th a n th e y w ould in th e c o u n tr y s id e (G u g le r 1982).
M ig ra n ts, h o w e v e r, ra tio n a lly maximize th e ir b e n e fits . T he
reso lu tio n of th e seem ing p a ra d o x d e riv e s from th e fa ct th a t
r u r a l- u r b a n m ig ratio n h a s a r e d is tr ib u tiv e e ffe c t. R u ra l-u rb a n
m ig ra n ts lay claim to a s h a r e in u rb a n incom e o p p o r tu n itie s ,
th e y gain some a c c e s s to u rb a n am en ities. R u ra l fam ilies se n d
th e ir so n s a n d d a u g h te r s to th e c ity so th a t th e y will be able
to p a r ta k e , h o w ev er little , o f i t s ric h e s .
Policies to r e s t r i c t r u r a l- u r b a n m igration c o n s titu te an
attem p t to k eep th e h a v e - n o ts o u t, to e re c t a b o u n d a ry th a t
will s h e lte r u rb a n p o p u la tio n s from th e com petition of mi
g r a n t s , ju s t a s a fflu e n t c o u n trie s s h e lte r th e ir c itiz e n s b y th e
enactm en t a n d e n fo rc e m en t o f law s c o n tro llin g th e im m igration
o f f o re ig n e rs . B o u n d a rie s a re d ra w n a n d b a r r i e r s e re c te d to
p ro te c t p riv ile g e . R e s tric tin g r u r a l - u r b a n m ig ratio n m eans
clo sin g th e rem ain in g e s c a p e ro u te to th e r u r a l m asses th a t
h av e been d is e n fra n c h is e d a n d n e g le c te d . S till, if m ig ratio n
co n tro ls a re th e e x c e p tio n in th e T h ird W orld, it is n o t o u t of
co n c e rn fo r e q u ity . R a th e r , in te r n a l b o u n d a rie s , to a much
g re a te r e x te n t th a n in te rn a tio n a l b o u n d a rie s , a re d iffic u lt to
police. T he c o u n trie s th a t r e g u la te in te r n a l m ig ratio n a re
th o se th a t c o n tro l th e ir p o p u la tio n s r a th e r c lo se ly ; th e y
in clu d e S o u th A fric a , com m itted to m ain tain in g in e q u ity
betw een B lack a n d W hite, a s well a s so cialist c o u n trie s th a t
avow th e ir c o n c e rn w ith th e 'r u r a l - u r b a n c o n tra d ic tio n 1. Even
w here d r a s tic m e a su re s a r e ta k e n to e n fo rc e c o n tro ls on
in te r n a l m ig ra tio n , h o w e v e r, t h e i r e ffe c tiv e n e s s a p p e a rs
218
I N T E R N A L M I G R AT I O N IN T H E T H I R D WORLD
lim ited. Half of th e r e s id e n ts in th e A frican to w n sh ip of

Sow eto, on th e o u ts k ir ts of J o h a n n e s b u r g , a re said to live
illeg ally th e r e . In C hina h u n d r e d s of th o u s a n d s o f ru s tic a te d
m iddle-school le a v e rs r e t u r n e d to th e c itie s w ith o u t a u th o r
isa tio n in th e 1970s.
C o n tra c t la b o u r in C h in a , th e te m p o ra ry re c ru itm e n t of
w o rk e rs from r u r a l a r e a s to w ork in u r b a n jo b s , illu s tr a te s
th e dilemmas of e q u ity a n d e ffic ie n cy th a t m ig ratio n c o n tro l
p o s e s . B le c h e r (1983; 1986) p ro v id e s an ac c o u n t fo r S h u lu , a
co u n ty in H ebei P ro v in c e . B etw een 1964 a n d 1978 th e in d u s
tria l la b o u r fo rc e in S h u lu tr e b le d . T h re e q u a r t e r s o f th e new
w o rk e rs came from r u r a l a r e a s on te m p o ra ry c o n tr a c ts . By
1978, c o n tra c t w o rk e rs co m p rised o v e r h a lf o f th e w ork fo rce
in c o u n ty -le v e l i n d u s tr y . T h e y re c e iv e d som ew hat low er w ages
th a n r e g u la r w o rk e rs . M oreover, th e y h a d no claim to th e
frin g e b e n e fits en jo y ed b y r e g u la r w o r k e rs , su c h a s fre e
medical in s u r a n c e , a c c id e n t in s u r a n c e (w o rk e rs ' com pen
s a tio n ) , p e n s io n s , a n d sic k le a v e . Most im p o rta n tly , c o n tra c t
w o rk e rs w ere h o u se d in d o rm ito rie s a n d h a d to leave th e ir
fam ilies in th e r u r a l a r e a s . In a p e rio d o f ra p id in d u s tr ia l
isa tio n u rb a n g ro w th was th u s re in e d in . O nly w o rk e rs
need ed in p ro d u c tio n w ere a u th o ris e d to come to u r b a n a r e a s ,
an d m ost, on c o n tra c t te r m s , h a d to leave th e ir d e p e n d e n ts
b e h in d . To th e e x te n t th a t th e sy stem w as e ffe c tiv e ly im ple
m en ted , unem ploym ent was av o id ed a n d th e p ro p o rtio n of
d e p e n d e n ts k e p t ex tre m e ly low in th e u r b a n a r e a s . At th e
same tim e, in e q u itie s w ere c re a te d b e tw e en r e g u la r w o rk e rs
a n d c o n tra c t w o rk e rs , a s well a s b etw een th e la t t e r a n d r u r a l
w o rk e rs . R u ra l p ro d u c tio n te a m s, h o w e v e r, re c e iv e d a s h a re
o f c o n tra c t w o rk e rs ’ w a g e s; a n d in a s much a s c o n tra c t
w o rk e rs a n d th e ir fam ilies rem ained p a r t of th e r u r a l p o p u
la tio n , th e a v e ra g e income o f th a t p o p u la tio n w as h ig h e r th a n
it w ould h a v e b e e n if th e y h ad left a lto g e th e r . T he system
can b e a rg u e d to b e more b e n e fic ia l to th e r u r a l m asses th a n
if some in th e ir m idst w ere to leav e p e rm a n e n tly a n d c u t all
tie s .
T h e re is g e n e ra l a g re e m e n t th a t r u r a l d ev e lo p m e n t, so as
to close th e r u r a l- u r b a n g a p , c o n s titu te s a policy of e q u ity
th a t will tr u ly stem r u r a l- u r b a n m ig ra tio n . A d m itted ly , in itia l
im provem ents in e d u c a tio n a n d in com m unications may e n
co u ra g e m ig ratio n a s lo n g a s r u r a l- u r b a n d is c re p a n c ie s rem ain
la rg e . To sig n ific a n tly re d u c e th e gap r e q u ir e s th a t c o n s id e r
able r e s o u r c e s be made av ailab le to a h u g e r u r a l p o p u la tio n .
R u ral incom es h a v e to be ra is e d d ir e c tly , e . g . th r o u g h a
re d u c tio n in ta x e s o r th r o u g h an in c re a s e in th e p r ic e s of
a g ric u ltu ra l p r o d u c ts , a n d / o r in d ire c tly th ro u g h in v e stm e n ts
th a t ra is e th e p ro d u c tiv ity o f th e r u r a l la b o u r fo rc e w h e th e r
in a g r ic u ltu r e o r in sm all-scale i n d u s t r y . G iven th e size o f
th e r u r a l p o p u la tio n in T h ird World c o u n tr ie s , th is would
re q u ire an enorm ous re a llo c a tio n o f r e s o u r c e s , a reallo catio n
th a t would b e c o n fro n te d w ith th e d e te rm in e d o p p o sitio n o f
219
u rb a n in te r e s ts . A lo n g -ru n r u r a l developm ent po licy , which

in any case would have to focus on la b o u r-in te n siv e in v e s t
m ents to re ta in a grow ing r u r a l p o p u latio n , might c o n stitu te a
feasible compromise. Such a policy a p p e a rs , how ever, to be
beyond th e horizon of most g o v e rn m e n ts, p reo ccu p ied as th e y
are w ith th e ir v e ry su rv iv a l in a much more immediate f u tu re .
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221
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F irst p u b lish e d in Swahili by TANU, th e p a r ty o rg a n

isation
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S abot, R .H . (1979) Economic Development a n d U rban
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Shaw , R. P. (1975) M igration T h eo ry an d F act: A Review and
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T od aro , M .P. (1976) In te rn a l M igration in D eveloping
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Geneva
T u ro k , B ., an d K. Maxey (1976) 'S o u th e rn A frica: White
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U nited Nations (1980) P a tte rn s of U rban a n d R ural Population
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1983 M onitoring R ep o rt' Document IE SA /P/W P.82/A dd. 1,
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I NT ER N AL MI GRATI ON IN T HE T H I R D WORLD
World Bank (1985) World Developm ent R eport 1985, O xford

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Yap, L .Y .L . (1977) 'T h e A ttra c tio n of C ities: A Review of
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Economics, 4, 239-64
223
C h a p te r E ight
COUNTERURBANISATION
A .J . F ielding
INTRODUCTION
T h re e u n a n tic ip a te d c h a n g e s in th e c h a r a c te r of in te rn a l
m igration in ’w e s te r n 1 d ev elo p ed c o u n trie s h av e ta k e n p lace
d u r in g th e re c e n t p e rio d . T h e f i r s t is th e d o w n tu rn in i n t e r
la b o u r m ark et a re a m obility r a t e s . T h e se h a d b ee n in c re a s in g
up u n til ab o u t 1970 a n d w ere e x p e c te d to in c re a se th e r e a f te r .
In d eed it w as a t a b o u t th e time th a t th e d o w n tu rn o c c u rre d
th a t Z elinski p u b lis h e d h is in flu e n tia l p a p e r on th e ’m obility
tra n s itio n ’; th is p a p e r v e r y p e rs u a s iv e ly s itu a te d in te rn a l
m igration w ithin it s b r o a d e r social c o n te x t, a n d a rg u e d th a t
w e ste rn d ev elo p ed c o u n trie s w ere e n te r in g a p h a se in w hich
u n id ire c tio n a l r u r a l- to - u r b a n m ig ratio n stre a m s w ould be
rep la c e d b y ’c irc u la tio n 1, a s itu a tio n in w hich h ig h lev els of
m obility w ould c h a r a c te r is e all a r e a s . It w as n o t to b e . T he
lev els o f in te rre g io n a l m ig ratio n w ere in alm ost all c a s e s low er
in th e la te 1970s a n d e a rly 1980s th a n th e y w ere in th e 1960s
(O g ilv ie, 1979).
T h e seco n d u n e x p e c te d c h a n g e is th e ’tu r n r o u n d ’ in th e
p a tte r n o f n e t m ig ra tio n . P rio r to ab o u t 1970 th e r e was a
p o sitiv e c o rre la tio n b etw een th e p o p u la tio n siz e o f a se ttle m e n t
(co n ceiv ed h e re in la b o u r m ark et a re a te rm s) a n d i t s n e t
m ig ratio n ; th e sm a lle r, m ore r u r a l o r more iso la te d a place
w as, th e more lik ely it was to lose p o p u la tio n th r o u g h in te rn a l
m ig ra tio n , a n d th e l a r g e r , more u rb a n o r more c e n tra l a p lace
w as, th e more lik ely it w as to g ain th ro u g h in te rn a l
m ig ra tio n . It m ight h a v e b e e n e x p e c te d th a t th is p a tte r n
would h av e c o n tin u e d a f te r 1970 b e c a u s e th e em ploym ent sh ift
aw ay from a g r ic u ltu r e an d to w a rd s th e s e rv ic e s c o n tin u e d , as
did th e a d v a n ta g e of m etro p o litan a r e a s o v e r r u r a l a re a s w ith
re s p e c t to w age le v e ls a n d le v e ls o f u n em ploym ent. A gain th is
d id n o t h a p p e n . T h e re la tio n s h ip b e tw e e n size of se ttle m e n t
a n d n e t m ig ratio n becam e a n e g a tiv e o n e , th e la r g e s t c itie s
lost a n d th e sm aller to w n s a n d r u r a l a r e a s gain ed ( C o u r t,
1984).
224
COUNTERURBANISATION
T he th ir d u n e x p e c te d chan g e co n c e rn s th e social compo

sition of in te rn a l m igration stream s. T he r e a d e r may possibly
have a lre a d y decided th a t th e ch an g es in levels of mobility
and in p a tte r n s of n e t m igration h av e som ething to do with
th e recessio n in th e w orld econom y. T h is rec essio n is custom
arily th o u g h t to have b eg u n w ith th e 'oil c ris is ' o f 1973-4 and
to have in te n sifie d in th e y e a rs 1979-81. Since th e im pact of
recessio n is u n ev en a s betw een reg io n s an d social c la s s e s , it
might have been ex p e c te d th a t th o se most a d v e rse ly a ffe c te d ,
th a t is , manual w o rk ers in m a n u fa c tu rin g in d u s trie s and
young people e n te rin g th e lab o u r m arket in non-m etropolitan
and 'old in d u s tria l' re g io n s , would h av e come to c o n stitu te an
even la rg e r p ro p o rtio n of th e in te rre g io n a l m ig ra n ts them th e y
did in th e 1950s an d 60s. T he sig n s a re th a t th is has not
been th e c ase. T he m igration stream s seem to have been
in c re a sin g ly dom inated by members of th e 'new middle c la ss'
(Pohl and S oleilhavoup, 1982).
T h u s we have th r e e p a ra d o x e s:
(i) a d e c re a se in in te rn a l m igration ju s t as we e n te r th e
high mobility 'p o s t-in d u s tria l' e ra ;
(ii) a replacem ent of u rb a n isa tio n by c o u n te ru rb a n isa tio n
d e sp ite th e location in th e major c itie s of the
favourable employment s tr u c tu r e s , h ig h e r th a n av era g e
w ages and lower them a v e ra g e unem ploym ent ra te s ;
(iii) a situ atio n in which th o se th a t need to m igrate th e
m ost, th a t is , th e low paid an d th o se with low job
se c u rity seem to c o n stitu te a d e c re a sin g p ro p o rtio n of
m igration stre a m s, while th o se who need to m igrate th e
le a s t, th a t is , th o se in s e c u re , w ell-paid jo b s, co n sti
tu te an in c re a sin g p ro p o rtio n o f m igration stre a m s.
How can th e se p arad o x ical developm ents be explained? T his
p a p e r fo cuses on th e lite r a tu r e th a t re la te s to th e second
problem - th e replacem ent of a tre n d to w ards a sp atial con
c e n tra tio n of popu latio n b y a tr e n d to w ard s d eco n c en tratio n -
b u t it will be seen th a t some of th e id eas developed re c e n tly
to solve th is problem c a n , in a d d itio n , sh e d a lig h t on o th e r
iss u e s in contem porary m igration a n a ly sis.
The lite r a tu r e review ed in th is e ssa y is b o u n d ed b y th e
following c rite ria :
(i) th e re s e a rc h m ust re la te to population re d istrib u tio n
since 1950, an d to th e ch an g es th a t o c c u rre d about 1970
an d which re s u lte d in c o u n te ru rb a n isa tio n ;
(ii) it m ust be co n cern ed w ith population re d istrib u tio n in
'w e s te rn , d e v elo p ed ', i . e . , m ature cap ita list so cieties.
T his in p ra c tic e means th e c o u n trie s of N orth America
an d W estern Europe p lu s Jap an an d A u strala sia ;
(iii) it m ust re la te to ch an g es a t th e in te r-la b o u r m arket
a re a level; it will n o t be co n c e rn e d w ith s u b u rb a n
isa tio n , th o u g h it is n e c e ssa ry to d isc u ss th e re la tio n
ship betw een s u b u rb a n isa tio n an d c o u n te ru rb a n isa tio n
225
C O U NT E R UR B A N I S AT I O N
since th e d e g re e to which th e se two p ro c e sse s a re to be

seen as em pirically an d concep tu ally se p a ra te is c o n tro
v e rsia l.
T his b rin g s u s to th e q u e stio n of d e fin itio n s. Most of th e
im portant co n cep ts u s e d in th is e ssa y will be defined a s th e y
are in tro d u c e d , b u t th e term 'c o u n te ru rb a n isa tio n ' is so ce n
tra l to th e whole e x e rc ise th a t it is sen sib le to attem pt a
definition rig h t at th e s t a r t . 'C o u n te ru rb a n isa tio n ' will be
used in its narrow se n se ; it will r e f e r to th e te n d en c y for
la rg e r places to lose population th ro u g h m igration, while
sm aller places g ain . 'L a rg e r' and 'sm aller' a re h ere defin ed in
term s of re sid e n t population n um bers and 'p la c e s' a re defined
in term s of lab o u r m arket a re a s . C o u n te ru rb an isatio n is th u s
th e opposite of 'u rb a n isa tio n ' w here th is term is u se d to mean
'a p ro c e ss of population co n c e n tra tio n th a t implies a movement
from a sta te of less c o n cen tratio n in space to a s ta te of more
co n cen tratio n ' (T isd ale q u o te d in B e rry , 1976).
The relativ e population g ro w th s of la rg e and small places
is n o t, of c o u rse , ju s t d e p e n d e n t upon m igration; b u t social
and sp atial v a ria tio n s in fe rtility an d m ortality r a te s have
become v e ry much le ss im portant in th e post World War II
p erio d , a n d th e d iffe re n c es in n a tu ra l in c re a se th a t have
o c c u rre d have been la rg e ly due to d iffe re n tia l a g e - s tr u c tu r e s
co n seq u en t upon a g e -se le ctiv e m igration (R o b e rt, 1983). T h u s
the population c h a n g e s e x p e rie n c ed in p a rtic u la r places have
been v e ry larg ely due e ith e r to th e d ire c t effect of m igration
upon th e n um bers of people re sid e n t th e r e , o r to th e in d ire c t
effe c ts of m igration upon th e p la c e 's dem ographic s tr u c tu r e .
T his ex p lain s th e em phasis in th is e ssa y on population r e d is
trib u tio n .
Even w ithout th e special in te re s t in population r e d is
trib u tio n occasioned by th e re c e n t c h a n g es in tr e n d s , th is
would be an o p p o rtu n e moment to ta k e stock of what was
happ en in g to th e population g eo g rap h ies of th e se c o u n trie s.
The inform ation from th e 1980-82 ro u n d of c e n su se s is now
larg ely available, an d th e m assive ta s k of an aly sis a n d in te r
p re ta tio n is well u n d e r w ay. In a d d itio n , developm ents in th e
concepts of th e an aly sis of u rb a n an d regional change have
been ra p id in re c e n t y e a r s , an d th e time is rip e fo r them to
be te s te d in th e field of em pirical population g eo g ra p h y .
THE TURNROUND IN THE USA
Most of th e many com m entators on th e m igration 'tu r n r o u n d '

in th e USA give th e im pression th a t th e ch ange in tr e n d was
totally u n fo re se e n . T h is is not so . W riting in th e late 1950s,
V ernon (1963) p re d ic te d th a t th e New Y ork m etropolitan
region would ex p erien ce an n u al n e t in -m ig ratio n o f 114,000
p e rso n s p e r annum d u rin g th e p erio d 1955-65, d ro p p in g to
40,000 in th e 1965-75 d ecad e. 'In th e following te n - y e a r
226
COUNTERURBANISATION
p e rio d , th e re will be n et o u t-m ig ratio n from th e region - a

tru ly sp e c ta c u la r r e s u lt, if it can be b e lie v ed , since it would
re v e rs e a h isto rical tre n d of h u n d re d s of y e a r 's s ta n d in g '.
F a r-s ig h te d as th is p re d ic tio n w as, it was not an unqualified
su c c e ss; in th e ev en t th e re v e rs a l came r a th e r e a rlie r th a n
e x p e c te d , and th e re la tiv e decline in m a n u fa ctu rin g employ
ment upon which th e p re d ic tio n was la rg e ly b a s e d , tu rn e d o u t
to be an ab so lu te decline.
T hat American g e o g ra p h e rs an d reg io n al sc ie n tis ts were
bem used b y th e tu rn ro u n d is le s s s u r p ris in g w hen one
rem em bers th e n u m b er, and p e rs u a s iv e n e ss of th e ex p la n
ations th a t had been developed to account fo r th e continued
grow th of th e v e ry la rg e c itie s. Some em phasised th e 'e c o n
omic b a s e ', an d showed how th e ab se n c e of declining se c to rs
such as a g ric u ltu re , an d th e predom inance of ex p an d in g
sec to rs su ch as c e rta in specialised s e rv ic e s and h ig h -g ro w th
in d u s tr ie s , favoured th e la rg e m etropolitan c itie s. O th e rs
s tre s s e d th e im portance of m arket size in th e location of new
in v e stm e n t, th e role of agglom eration econom ies, an d major
cities as th e c e n tre s of in n o v a tio n , g ain in g from th e b e n efits
of 'in itial ad v a n ta g e ' and e x p e rie n c in g a 'v irtu o u s circle' of
grow th. D espite all th e se re a so n s for th e f u r th e r grow th in
population an d employment of th e la rg e st c itie s a n d th e
fu r th e r decline of ru ra l a n d p e rip h e ra l a re a s , th e post-1970
population re d is trib u tio n p a tte r n in th e USA took th e follow
in g forms (H all, 1983):
(i) a n eg ativ e relatio n sh ip betw een grow th and u rb a n size;
(ii) a p o sitiv e relatio n sh ip betw een grow th and d istan c e
from th e city c e n tre ;
(iii) a n et m igration gain by non-m etropolitan a re a s a t th e
ex p en se of m etropolitan a re a s;
(iv ) a regional s h ift in fav o u r of th e so u th an d w est at th e
ex p en se of th e n o rth and e a s t.
Figure 8.1 show s th e s h ifts th a t have tak en place in th e net
m igration ra te s fo r m etropolitan a re a s in d iffe re n t size c a t
ego ries betw een th e 1960s an d th e e a rly 1970s. It is u n fo r
tu n a te th a t th e low est two c a teg o ries (m etropolitan a re a s w ith
populations less th an 250,000, an d non-m etropolitan a re a s ,
i . e . , a re a s lacking a population c lu s te r o f more th a n 50,000)
are not su b d iv id e d , b u t th e p ic tu re th a t em erges is clear
enough; th e la rg e r places have moved from n e t m igration gain
to lo ss, an d th e sm aller places from loss o r small gain to
rap id gain (B eale, 1977; Wardwell an d B row n, 1980).
In addition to th e sh ift to w ard s a n e g a tiv e relatio n sh ip
betw een n e t m igration and size of p la c e , th e re was population
re d is trib u tio n w ithin p la c e s. T h is fav o u red th e a re a s more
d ista n t from th e c e n tre of th e city o v e r th o se th a t w ere
n e a re r (s u b u rb a n is a tio n ). D ata fo r th e e a rly 1970s show s,
how ever, th a t th e tr e n d to w ard s n e t m igration gain in a re a s
o u tsid e th e m etropolitan a re a s was not d u e to m aldefinition of
227
O
O 1970-75
o 2
-6 - m *“
i 1
o o O
o o o
o o o
o' o o*
in o
0« CM m
V
settlem ent size
F ig . 8 .1 US annual net migration rates per thousand population 1960-70 and 1970-75 by settlement
size (SMSA) category.
COUNTERURBANISATION
th e m etropolitan a re a b o u n d a rie s (s ta tis tic a l u n d e rb o u n d in g ).

From Table 8.1 it can be seen th a t alth o u g h th e lev els of n et
m igration gain fav o u red 'n e a r e r ' o v e r more d is ta n t c o u n tie s,
th e sh ift tow ard s n e t gain was ro u g h ly e q u a l o v e r all co u n ties
irre s p e c tiv e of th e ir commuting lin k s w ith m etropolitan a re a s .
T h is p ic tu re is confirm ed b y th e 1980 c e n su s r e s u lts .
The population grow th ra te s 1970-80 fo r c o u n tie s not ad jacen t
to m etropolitan a re a s (+13.8%) was low er th a n th a t fo r
adjacent co u n ties b u t exceed ed th e ra te fo r m etropolitan
counties a s a whole (+10.0%).
The th re e major m igration flows in th e USA in th e y e a rs
1900-70 had been th e movement from e a st to w est, the
m igration of b lack Am ericans from th e so u th e rn s ta te s to the
cities of th e n o rth , an d th e movement from th e r u r a l a re a s
into th e u rb a n (G reenw ood, 1981). Commenting on th e 1980
cen su s r e s u lts , H auser (1981) w rite s, 'a t le ast one a sp ec t of
th is w ell-estab lish ed p a tte rn was fundam entally a lte re d in th e
1970s. For th e f irs t time since th e ta k in g o f th e c e n su s b egan
(1790), th e population of n o n-m etropolitan c o u n tie s, made up
of ru ra l a re a s and small to w n s, grew f a s te r th a n th e p o p u
lation of th e m etropolitan a r e a s '. T he ra p id ity of th is change
is shown in Table 8 .2 .
It m ust b e rem em bered, ho w ev er, th a t as u rb a n c lu s te rs
attain 50,000 population th e y a re tr a n s f e r r e d from the n o n
m etropolitan c a te g o ry into th e m etropolitan. As a re s u lt th e
pro p o rtio n of th e total population of th e USA th a t lived in
m etropolitan a re a s actu ally in c re a se d from 69% in 1970 when
th e re w ere 243 m etropolitan a re a s , to 75% in 1980 when th e re
were 318 m etropolitan a re a s .
F inally, and p e rh a p s most dram atic of all, h a s been the
regional s h ift in fav o u r of th e so u th an d west a t th e ex p e n se
of th e n o rth an d e a s t. In F ig u re 8.2 th e five major reg io n s of
th e USA have b een o rd e re d from th e le a st u rb a n (% no n
m etropolitan popu latio n ) to th e most u r b a n . T he 's u n b e lt/
fro stb e lt' c o n tra s t in th e n e t m igration fig u re s is v e ry m arked
(b u t see P lane, 1983).
The d a ta in F ig u re 8.2 is once again c o n siste n t w ith d ata
from th e 1980 c e n su s which show s th a t th e N o rth e ast an d
N o rth cen tral s ta te s had population grow th ra te s 1970-80 th a t
were fa r lower th a n th e national a v e ra g e (+0.2% and +4.0%
com pared w ith +11.4%), while th e South and West had ra te s
th a t w ere fa r h ig h e r th a n th e a v e ra g e (+20.0% and +23.9%
re s p e c tiv e ly ). The c e n su s r e s u lts also show th a t th e major
chan g es in th e 1970s com pared w ith th e 1960s w ere th e sh a rp
upw ard tre n d in th e South (+5.7%) com pared w ith th e s h a rp
downward tr e n d in th e N o rth east (-9.6% ).
Inform ation fo r th e e a rly 1980s s u g g e s ts th a t although
the n et m igration gain b y non-m etropolitan a re a s a t th e
exp en se of m etropolitan a re a s may have c e a se d , th e g ain s by
the South an d West a t th e ex p en se o f th e u rb a n -in d u s tria l
N o rth east an d N o rth c e n tra l reg io n s o f th e c o u n try have
229
COUNTERURBANISATION
T a b le 8 . 1 : A n n u al N e t M i g r a t i o n R a t e s p e r T h o u sa n d Popu
l a t i o n f o r US N o n - m e t r o p o l i t a n C o u n t i e s C l a s s i f i e d by D e g re e
o f F u n c t i o n a l C o n n e c t i o n w i t h M e t r o p o l i t a n A r e a s 1 9 6 0 -7 0 and
1 9 7 0 -7 5 .
L evel o f
Commuting t o 1970 p o p . N e t m i g r a t i o n r a t e s % p e r annum
M e t r o p o l i t a n A re a x 106 1 9 6 0 -7 0 1 9 7 0 -7 5 S h ift
l e s s t h a n 3% 26.2 -8 .3 + 4 .6 + 1 2 .9
3-9% 1 3 .5 -4 .2 + 5 .6 + 9 .8
10-19% 9 .3 -1 .3 + 7 .8 + 9 .1
20% and o v e r 4 .0 + 1 .1 + 1 3 .1 + 1 2 .0
Source: B erry (1 9 8 0 ).
T ab le 8 .2 : R a t i o o f M e t r o p o l i t a n t o N o n - m e t r o p o l i t a n Popu
l a t i o n Growth R a t e s i n t h e US 1 9 5 0 -8 0 .
1 9 50 -60 1 9 6 0 -7 0 1 9 70 -80
R atio m e t r o / n o n - m e t r o 3 .7 2 .4 0 .7
S o u r c e : Long ( 1 9 8 2 ) .
p e r s is te d a n d may e v e n h av e in c r e a s e d in im p o rta n c e . At th e
same time th e r e a re s ig n s th a t th e o v e ra ll level o f mobility
h a s d e c re a se d (P la n e , 1984).
T he p e rv a s iv e n e s s of p o p u latio n d is p e rs a l in th e USA
d u rin g th e re c e n t p e rio d is show n b y Long a n d de A re ’s w ork
on th e 1980 c e n s u s (L o n g , 1982). U sing th e H oover in d e x of
c o n c e n tra tio n , th e y m e a su re d th e s p a tia l d is trib u tio n s of th e
po p u latio n o f th e USA in 1970 an d 1980 a t d iffe re n t sp a tia l
lev els (c o u n ty , s ta te , d iv isio n a n d r e g io n ) , an d fo u n d th a t
d e c o n c e n tra tio n h a d o c c u rre d a t e ach of th e s e le v e ls . It is
h a rd to e sc a p e B e r r y ’s (1976) co n clu sio n th a t a ro u n d 1970 fa
tu r n in g p o in t (h a d ) b e e n re a c h e d in th e A m erican u rb a n
e x p e rie n c e . C o u n te ru rb a n is a tio n (h a d ) re p la c e d u rb a n is a tio n
a s th e dom inant fo rce s h a p in g th e n a tio n 's se ttle m e n t p a t
t e r n s ’ ( B e r r y , 1976, 1980; R osem an, 1977; V ining and
S tr a u s s , 1977).
THE TURNROUND IN OTHER COUNTRIES
It soon becam e c le a r th a t th e c o u n te ru rb a n is a tio n phenom enon

was not c o n fin ed to th e US b u t was g e n e ra l th r o u g h o u t
’w e s te rn ’ in d u s tr ia l, m a tu re c a p ita lis t c o u n trie s (V in in g , 1978,
230
14-
12-
10-
- 2 i
-4 J
% non- South South North Central

metro East Central 30.8
1970 38.2 37.8
231
Fig. 8.2 Trend in US regional annual net migration

COUNTER URBANISATION
West North East

20 .1 1 4 .3
rates per thousand population 1960-70 to 1970-75.

C O U NT E R U R B AN I S A T I O N
1982; ERIPLAN, 1978; G oldstein, 1975; Ille ris, 1979, 1981).

A lthough th e co n cep ts th a t w ere u s e d v a rie d som ew hat, th e
su b sta n c e of th e em pirical s tu d ie s of tr e n d s in u rb a n develop
ment was th a t u rb a n isa tio n slowed down sh a rp ly d u rin g th e
1960s, to be p a rtia lly o r com pletely rep lac ed b y c o u n te r
u rb a n isa tio n in th e 1970s.
F or a d esc rip tio n of re c e n t tr e n d s th e c o u n trie s can be
g ro u p ed in to th r e e c a te g o rie s:
(i) th o se th a t have a re la tiv e ly re c e n t h isto ry o f u rb a n
isa tio n , sh a re a common w e ste rn (E uro p ean ) c u ltu ra l
tra d itio n , an d contain la rg e 'in te rio rs ' d ev o ted to
p rim ary p ro d u ctio n (a g ric u ltu re , fo r e s tr y , m ining):
A u stralia, C anada, New Zealand;
(ii) a c o u n try with a long u rb a n h isto ry b u t with re c e n t
'w e s te rn ' social an d economic forms fu sed with an
e a s te rn c u ltu ra l tra d itio n : Ja p a n ;
(iii) th o se th a t have a long h is to ry of u rb a n isa tio n , sh a re a
w estern c u ltu ra l tra d itio n and lack larg e in te rio rs :
F ra n c e , U nited Kingdom , E ire, Belgium , N eth erlan d s,
West G erm any, D enm ark, N orw ay, F inland, S w itzerland,
A u stria , G reece, Ita ly , Spain an d P o r tu g a l.1
It is not possib le to tr e a t in detail th e tr e n d s in u rb a n dev el
opment in each of th e c o u n trie s liste d above; in ste a d
A u stralia, Jap an and F ran ce will be u sed to 'r e p r e s e n t' th e ir
resp e c tiv e g ro u p s.
In th e p erio d betw een th e second World War an d 1970 the
p a tte rn of u rb a n developm ent in A u stralia was as simple a s it
was rem ark ab le. It was rem arkable fo r th e deg ree of concen
tratio n of th e n a tio n 's population in th e five large 'p o rt capi
ta ls ' (S y d n e y , M elbourne, B risb a n e , A delaide an d P e r th ) , and
was simple in th a t th e se cities w ere grow ing rapidly th ro u g h
m igration, while in te rio r an d ru ra l places were g enerally are a s
of n et m igration lo ss. S y d n e y 's sh a re of th e p o pulation of
New South Wales in c re a se d from an a lre a d y high fig u re o f 40%
in 1947 to 60% in 1971, an d M elbourne's sh a re of V ictoria's
population in c re a se d d u rin g th e same p e rio d from 53% to 70%
(Whitelaw, 1984). Rapid employment grow th in b o th m anufac
tu r in g and th e s e rv ic e s , accom panied by f u r th e r u rb a n isatio n
was en h an cin g th e a lre a d y p ro n o u n ced 'prim acy' of th e
A ustralian sta te c ap itals.
D uring th e 1970s A u stralian g e o g ra p h e rs c o n sid ere d it
unlikely th a t c o u n te ru rb a n isa tio n was ta k in g place in th e ir
co u n try (W hitelaw, 1984), b u t s u b se q u e n t a n aly sis of
1O th er co u n trie s m ight have been in clu d ed in th e categ o ry

w estern in d u s tria l, m ature c a p ita list c o u n trie s, b u t small size
a n d /o r th e special circu m stan ces of th e ir p re s e n t o r re c e n t
political h isto rie s make them r a th e r u n su ita b le fo r th is essay
(H ong K ong, South A frica, Is ra e l, A rg en tin a . . . ) .
232
COUNTERURBANISATIO N
m igration in th e 1971-76 a n d 1976-81 in te r - c e n s a l p e rio d s h av e

p ro d u c e d a c o n tr a r y c o n clu sio n ( J a r v ie , 1984; H ugo, 1984).
T he f ir s t s ig n s of th e c h a n g e s in m ig ratio n p a tte r n s came
w ith th e p u b lic a tio n o f th e 1976 c e n s u s . C o n tra s tin g th e
1966-71 an d th e 1971-76 p e r io d s , a n d u s in g ’o v e rb o u n d e d 1
d e fin itio n s of th e c a p ita l c ity a r e a s , J a r v ie show s th a t th e r e
was a re v e r s a l in th e n e t m igration b a la n c e s w h e re b y S y d n ey
a n d M elbourne, w hich h a d b e e n n e t g a in e rs in th e la te 1960s
(+4 p e r th o u s a n d a n d +5 p e r th o u s a n d re s p e c tiv e ly ) h ad
become n e t lo s e rs b y th e e a rly 1970s (-2 8 p e r th o u s a n d a n d
-14 p e r th o u s a n d re s p e c tiv e ly ) ( J a r v ie , 1984). At th e same
time la rg e a re a s of n o n -m e tro p o lita n A u s tra lia in c o a s ta l, and
n o n -c o a sta l b u t n o n - in te r io r re g io n s h ad e x p e rie n c e d th e
re v e r s e tr a n s itio n , th a t is , from n e t lo ss to n e t g a in . In
ad d itio n th e r a te s o f n et lo ss fo r m any o f th e in te r io r re g io n s
in th e s o u th e a s te r n t h i r d o f th e c o u n try h ad d im in ish ed .
Small a re a s ta tis tic s on in te r n a l m ig ratio n from th e 1981
ce n s u s h av e n o t y e t becom e a v a ila b le , b u t fig u re s on n e t
m igration ( in te rn a l a n d in te rn a tio n a l) 1976-81 b y siz e o f
settle m e n t show a c le a r c o u n te ru rb a n is a tio n f o r m .2
T he c e n s u s d a ta also sh o w s, h o w e v e r, th a t th e t u r n -
ro u n d in A u stra lia w as no sim ple r e v e r s a l o f th e p re v io u s
p a tte r n . While th e m ajor m etro p o litan a r e a s ( o th e r th a n
B risb a n e an d P e r th ) c e a se d to g ain a p p re c ia b ly b y m igration
an d p ro b a b ly lo st b y in te r n a l m ig ra tio n , many of th e rem ote
a re a s of th e in te r io r , b o th th e m o d erately s e ttle d o n es o f th e
e a s t, s o u th e a s t s o u th a n d s o u th w e s t, a n d th e s p a r s e ly s e ttle d
ones o f th e c e n tr e a n d n o rth w e s t w ere also a re a s of n e t mi
g ra tio n lo s s . T h is m eans th a t th e a r e a s of n e t gain w ere two
of th e la r g e r c itie s (B ris b a n e a n d P e r t h ) , many sm all a n d
m edium -sized to w n s in th e more d e n s e ly - s e ttle d p e rip h e r a l
p a r ts o f th e c o u n tr y , some tr a d in g c e n tr e s a n d ’re s o u r c e 1
tow ns of th e i n te r io r , a n d many r u r a l a re a s alo n g th e e a s t
an d n o rth e a s t c o a s ts .
P e rh a p s th e most s tr ik in g m a n ifestatio n o f th e tu r n r o u n d
in A u stra lia is th e a lte r e d p a tte r n o f in t e r s ta te m ig ra tio n . In
th e 1950s a n d e a rly 1960s th e ra p id g ro w th s of th e two
2T h is sta te m e n t is b a s e d on d a ta p r e s e n te d in Hugo 1983 p .

243, w hich show s th a t fo r th e p e rio d 1976-81 th e n e t
m igration r a te s (in te r n a l a n d in te rn a tio n a l) w ere +1.6 p e r
th o u s a n d fo r c itie s o v e r 1 m illion, +3.5 p e r th o u s a n d fo r
cities b etw een 0 .5 million a n d 1 m illion___ +8.0 p e r th o u s a n d
fo r to w n s b etw een 10 a n d 25 th o u s a n d a n d +17.4 fo r s e ttle
m ents b etw een 5 a n d 10 th o u s a n d . In th is c a s e , h o w e v e r,
local a d m in istra tiv e a re a s w ere u s e d a s a b a s is fo r th e a n a ly
sis an d some o f th e v a ria tio n is th o u g h t to be d u e to th e
s ta tis tic a l u n d e rb o u n d in g of th e p rin c ip a l c itie s (H ugo 1983
p . 4 2 ).
233
COUNTERURBANISATION
la r g e s t c itie s , S y d n e y a n d M elb o u rn e, w ere fu elled b y i n t e r

n a tio n a l m ig ratio n fo r w hich th e s e c itie s w ere th e p rin c ip a l
p o in ts o f e n t r y . B u t i n t e r s ta t e m ig ratio n re in fo rc e d th is tr e n d
w ith each of th e s e c itie s g a in in g 56,000 p e rs o n s th r o u g h th e
in te r s ta te m ig ratio n o f th e A u s tr a lia n - b o rn d u rin g th e y e a r s
1954-66 ( B u rn le y , 1980). T h e in t e r s ta t e n e t m igration fig u re s
from th e 1976 a n d 1981 c e n s u s e s tell a v e r y d iff e r e n t s to r y .
New S outh Wales a n d V icto ria saw t h e i r sizeab le n e t g a in s
th ro u g h in te rn a tio n a l m ig ratio n la rg e ly d is s ip a te d th r o u g h n et
in te r s ta te m ig ratio n lo s s e s . T h e g a in s th ro u g h in te r s ta te
m igration w ere e x p e rie n c e d b y Q u e e n sla n d , W estern A u stra lia
an d th e A u stra lia n N ational T e r r ito r y , w ith th e ANT’s g a in s
la rg e ly c o n fin ed to th e e a rly 1970s a n d Q u e e n sla n d ’s g ain s
in c re a s in g ra p id ly d u r in g th e re c e n t p e rio d . In d e e d ,
Q u e e n sla n d g ain e d 31,500 p e rs o n s th r o u g h in te r s ta te m igration
in ju s t one y e a r 1980-81; 16,000 o f th is gain came from NSW
and 10,000 from V icto ria (H u g o , 1983)!
It can be seen th a t a lth o u g h th e r e was no sim ple r e v e r
sal o f tr e n d s a ro u n d 1970 in A u s tra lia , s e v e ra l o f th e fe a tu r e s
id e n tifie d in th e US v e rs io n of c o u n te ru rb a n is a tio n w ere
p r e s e n t in th e re c e n t p e rio d . T h e most im p o rta n t of th e s e a re
th e n et in te r n a l m ig ratio n lo sse s of th e la r g e s t c itie s , S y d n e y
a n d M elbourne, a n d th e ra p id e m erg en ce o f th e A u stra lia n
v e rsio n of th e ’s u n b e lt1 phenom enon re p r e s e n te d b y th e
in c re a s e d n et m ig ratio n g ain Q u e e n sla n d , e x p e rie n c e d b y b o th
its c a p ita l c ity , B ris b a n e , a n d b y many o th e r p la c e s in th e
S ta te . Hugo (1984, p . 275) w rite s :
’D u rin g th e 1970s A u stra lia e n te r e d a new e ra of p o p u
lation ch an g e q u ite d iffe re n t from th a t o f e a rlie r p o s t-w a r
y e a r s . T h e re h a v e b e e n m ajor re -a lig n m e n ts in p a tte r n s o f
f e r tility , m o rtality a n d in te rn a tio n a l m ig r a tio n ... (In a d d itio n ,
th e 1981 c e n s u s r e s u lts ) show c o n c lu siv e ly th a t th e r e h a s
b e e n . . . a re v e r s a l of th e lo n g e s ta b lis h e d tr e n d to w a rd
in c re a s in g c o n c e n tra tio n o f p o p u la tio n in A u stra lia ’s major
m etropolitan c e n t r e s . . . Some sig n ific a n t d e c o n c e n tra tio n o f
b o th p o p u latio n a n d jo b s h a s o c c u rre d aw ay from th e n a tio n ’s
m ajor c itie s a n d to w a rd c e rta in sm aller tow ns a n d c itie s in
r u r a l a r e a s ’.
Ja p a n e s e u rb a n is a tio n in th e 1950s a n d 1960s was fa r
g r e a te r th a n th a t e x p e rie n c e d in th e US o r A u s tra lia . T he
fo u r p r e f e c tu r e s o f th e S o u th K anto re g io n c e n te rin g upon
Tokyo g ain ed p o p u latio n th r o u g h in te r n a l m igration a t a ra te
of b etw een 250 a n d 400 th o u s a n d p e r s o n s p e r annum d u rin g
th e y e a r s 1950-70 (K aw ashim a, 1980)! T h e same p e rio d saw
th e p o p u la tio n em ployed in th e p rim a ry s e c to r declin e from
50% to 18%. A ro u n d 1970 th e s itu a tio n c h a n g e d ; r u r a l d e p o p u
latio n did not cease a lto g e th e r b u t r a te s of lo ss fo r r u r a l
p r e f e c tu r e s fe ll to a v e r y low le v e l, a n d th e h ig h r a te s o f n e t
m igration g ain e x p e rie n c e d b y th e b e lt o f m etro p o litan c itie s
e x te n d in g from T o kyo in th e n o r th e a s t to O saka in th e s o u th
w est (th e T okaido ’m egalopolis’) w ere re p la c e d b y low r a te s of
234
COUNTERURBANISATION
gain o r b y n et m igration lo ss. F ig u re 8 .3 show s th e c h an g es

fo r th re e g ro u p s of p re fe c tu r e s : th e f irs t is th e g re a te r
Kanto region (te n p r e fe c tu re s ) c e n te re d on Tokyo; th e second
group c o n sists of th e te n p r e fe c tu re s of th e Kinki an d Tokai
reg io n s which contain th e major c o n u rb a tio n s of O saka and
Nagoya; th e th ir d c o n sists mainly o f th e ru r a l p re fe c tu re s
to g e th e r with p re fe c tu re s co n tain in g im p o rtan t reg io n al c ities
and m edium -sized 'f r e e - s ta n d in g ' tow ns. T h is g ra p h show s
b o th th e e x tra o rd in a ry sh ift th a t o c c u rre d betw een 1970 and
1975, and th e way th a t th e capital c ity region has reta in e d
some of its n e t m igration gain while th e o th e r u rb a n in d u s tria l
city reg io n s have n o t.
S u rv e y s of Jap a n e se u rb a n isa tio n tr e n d s p u b lish e d in
English do not include n et m igration ra te s by settlem en t size,
b u t an indication of th e sp re a d of population grow th to ru ra l
and p e rip h e ra l p re fe c tu re s is given by th e fact th a t betw een
1965 and 1970, 21 of th e 47 p re fe c tu re s lost population a t a
time when th e total Ja p an ese population grew by 5.5%, w here
as betw een 1975 an d 1980 only one of th e 47 p re fe c tu re s lost
population (T okyo itse lf) d e sp ite th e fact th a t th e total
Jap an ese population grew a t th e slow er ra te o f 4.5%. The
late st d ata on population grow th ra te s fo r th e y e a r 1982
(S ta tistic a l Y earbook, 1983) su g g e s t th a t th e re a re two k in d s
of a rea th a t a re grow ing more rap id ly th a n th e national
a v erag e (i) th e a re a s close to b u t not n e ce ssa rily w ithin the
commuting zones of th e la rg e s t cities (fo r exam ple, some of
th e p re fe c tu re s of N orth Kanto an d Kinki re g io n s) an d (ii)
provincial city p re fe c tu re s su ch a s Myagi (S en d ai) and
Fukuoka (W itherick, 1983).
Sum m arising th e se tre n d s in u rb a n isa tio n an d s h ifts in
m igration, Ja p an ese population g e o g ra p h e rs fre q u e n tly re fe r
to th e 'U - tu r n ' th a t took place in th e early y e a rs o f th e 1970s
(K u ro d a, 1975; Kawabe, 1980; Nanjo, 1982; Yam aguchi, 1984).
By th is th e y mean th a t a s h ift to w ard s r e tu r n m igration th a t
led to in c re a se d o u t-m ig ratio n from th e major m etropolitan
a re a s , p lu s a su d d e n d rop in th e r u r a l e x o d u s, com bined to
p roduce an a b ru p t en d to u rb a n isa tio n in Ja p a n . U rbanisation
had dom inated Jap an ese population re d is trib u tio n almost con
tin u o u sly since th e Meiji re s to ra tio n in 1868, when Jap an took
its fir s t ste p s tow ard s 'w e s te r n '- s ty le in d u stria lisa tio n and
'm o d ern isatio n '; its p a ssin g was in te r p r e te d a s a sig n o f social
m atu rity - Ja p a n had joined th e ra n k s of th e w o rld 's dev el
oped n atio n s (Kawashim a, 1980).
U rbanisation in F ran ce w as, like th a t in J a p a n , v e ry
rap id in th e early p o s t-w a r p e rio d . L arge flows of young
people from ru r a l a re a s an d small tow ns in to th e major c itie s,
p a rtic u la rly P a ris , accom panied th e major ex p an sio n of u rb a n
m an u factu rin g in d u s trie s an d th e g row th o f se rv ic e em ploy
ment (F ield in g , 1966). In th e p erio d 1954-62 th e re was a
s tro n g positiv e re la tio n sh ip betw een th e size of settlem en t and
net m igration (F ig u re 8 .4 ); only in th e case of th e la rg e st
235
COUNTERURBANISATION
F ig . 8 .3 Net m ig ratio n b y ty p e o f re g io n Ja p a n 1955-82.
se ttle m e n ts d id th e r a te s o f g ain n o t in c re a s e d w ith s iz e . T he

p ic tu re fo r th e p e rio d 1975-82 is alm ost com pletely th e
r e v e r s e ; o v e r most o f th e ra n g e o f se ttle m e n t siz e s th e
re la tio n sh ip is a n e g a tiv e one ( th a t i s , th e c o u n te r u r b a n
isatio n form ) a n d it is o n ly in th e c a se o f th e v e r y sm allest
ru r a l com m unes th a t th e r a te s o f lo ss e x c e e d th o se o f th e
la rg e s t c itie s . F ig u re 8 .4 also show s th a t it was b etw e en th e
m id-1960s a n d th e e a rly 1970s th a t most o f th e c h a n g e took
p lace (C o u rg e a u , 1978, 1982; B oudoul a n d F a u r , 1982).
T he d a ta on w hich F ig u re 8 .4 is b a s e d e n s u r e s th a t
se ttle m e n ts a re d e fin e d in su c h a way a s to in c lu d e all th e
s u b u r b s o f a c ity w hen th e s e c o n s is t o f e x te n s io n s to th e
co n tin u o u sly b u ilt- u p a r e a . In th e re c e n t p e rio d F ra n c e h a s
ex p e rie n c e d ’p é r iu r b a n is a tio n ’ , b y w hich is m eant u rb a n
developm ent in a r e a s th a t a re n e a r to , b u t do not form p a r t
o f , th e c o n tin u o u sly b u ilt- u p a r e a . H ow ever, th e d a ta a t th e
reg io n al lev el fo r th e tw o p e rio d s 1954-62 a n d 1975-82 show s
th a t th e s e local e ffe c ts a re n o t at th e ro o t of th e c h a n g e s
th a t h a v e ta k e n p la c e . In T ab le 8 .3 F ra n c e h a s b e e n d iv id e d
in to ju s t th r e e b ro a d zo n e s: th e Ile - d e - F r a n c e (P a ris ) re g io n ;
th e te n p re d o m in a n tly u rb a n re g io n s of n o r th e r n an d e a s te r n
F ra n c e (c o n ta in in g th e la r g e s t p ro v in c ia l c itie s su c h a s L yon,
M arseille a n d L ille); an d th e p re d o m in a n tly r u r a l re g io n s of
w e ste rn F ra n c e (th e s e w ere in te rm s o f em ploym ent s tr u c tu r e
th e te n most a g r ic u ltu r a l re g io n s in F ra n c e in 1954). T he
ch an g e is q u ite s tr ik in g . T h e n e t g ain o f th e P a ris re g io n in
236
1954-62
1962-68
1968-75
1975-82
Paris
COUNTERURBANISATION
rural communes ■* --------urban communes grouped into agglomerations------►
settlement size (population)
g Fig. 8.4 France, annual net migration rates per thousand population 1954-82 by settlement size
^ (rural commune and unites urbaines) category.
COUNTERURBANISATION
T ab le 8 . 3 : N et I n t e r n a l M i g r a t i o n R a t e s P e r c e n t P o p u l a t i o n
f o r M a jo r R e g i o n s i n F r a n c e 1 9 5 4 -6 2 an d 1 9 7 5 - 8 2 .
% p o p. Net M i g r a t i o n R a t e s
M a jo r R e g io n of France 1 9 5 4 -6 2 1 9 7 5 -8 2
' r u r a l ' w est 36.1 -2 .2 6 + 2 .3 2

'u r b a n 1 e a s t 45.1 + 0.11 + 0.01
P aris reg io n 1 8 .8 + 4 .6 6 -4 .5 1
Source: C ensuses.
th e la te 1950s was tu r n e d in to a lo s s , while th e n e t lo ss of

th e r u r a l w e s te rn re g io n s was tu r n e d in to a gain ( F r a n c a r t,
1983).
One m ight a rg u e th a t th is th re e fo ld d iv isio n was only
a p p ro p ria te to th e s itu a tio n in th e p re-1 9 7 0 p e rio d w hen th e
c o n tr a s ts b etw een P a r is /p r o v in c e a n d u r b a n e a s t / r u r a l w est
w ere a t th e ir g r e a te s t; sin c e 1970 th e p rin c ip a l d iffe re n c e
seem s to be b etw een th e n e t in te r n a l m ig ratio n lo sse s o f th e
re g io n s of n o r th e r n F ra n c e , n o ta b ly Ile -d e -F ra n c e (P a ris )
(-440,000 1975-82), N o rd -P a s -d e -C a la is (L ille) (-1 3 0 ,0 0 0 ) an d
L o rrain e ( -9 0 ,0 0 0 ), a n d th e g a in s of th e re g io n s b o r d e r in g
th e M e d ite rra n e an S e a , sp e c ific a lly P ro v e n c e -A lp e s -C o te s -
d 'A z u r (+20,000) an d L an g u e d o c -R o u ssillo n (+ 120,000).
In th e ir f i r s t a n a ly s is o f th e 1982 c e n s u s r e s u lts th e
n atio n al s ta tis tic a l office w rite :
'T h e c h e c k to u rb a n is a tio n is th e m ost s tr ik in g phenom
enon re v e a le d b y th e c e n s u s r e s u l t s . . . D u rin g th e p e rio d
1975-82, th e g ro w th o f th e r u r a l com m unes i s , on a v e ra g e ,
f a s te r th a n th a t o f th e to w n s. O nly to w n s of le s s th a n 20,000
in h a b ita n ts h a v e a r a te o f g ro w th h ig h e r th a n th a t fo r th e
whole of F ra n c e . In o v e r a c e n tu r y , th is is th e f ir s t tim e th a t
su c h a phenom enon h a s b e e n o b s e r v e d . It h a s i t s o rig in s in
th e s h a rp r e v e r s a l in th e m ig ratio n flows in fa v o u r of th e
r u r a l c o m m u n e s ...'.
R ecen t s tu d ie s on o th e r w e s te rn c o u n trie s confirm th e
tr e n d s d is c u s s e d in th is s e c tio n . B ro ad ly s p e a k in g , c o u n te r
u rb a n is a tio n re p la c e d u rb a n is a tio n a ro u n d o r ju s t b e fo re 1970,
co n tin u e d u n til th e la te 1970s w hen e ith e r it d is a p p e a re d o r it
was re d u c e d to a low er lev el (C h am p io n, 1983; F a lk , 1978;
K o n tu ly , 1984; O gilv ie, 1982).
THEORIES OF COUNTERURBANISATION
While many g e o g ra p h e rs a n d re g io n a l s c ie n tis ts h av e c o n te n te d

th e m se lv e s w ith a d o cu m en tatio n of th e c h a n g e s th a t took
p lace a ro u n d 1970, o th e r s h a v e tr ie d to p ro v id e re a s o n s fo r
238
COUNTERURBANISATION
th ese ch an g es. The v a rie ty of positio n s a d o p ted by w rite rs on

th e tu rn ro u n d is immense; some see c o u n te ru rb a n isa tio n as
noth in g more th a n th e f u r th e r developm ent o f a lre ad y well-
estab lish ed tre n d s n o tab ly s u b u rb a n is a tio n , o th e rs see it as
som ething com pletely new - as a 'clean b re a k with th e p a s t'.
For some th e ex p lan atio n is to b e found in th e fa c to rs
influencing th e location decisions of th e in d iv id u al m ig ra n ts,
notably th e a ttra c tiv e n e s s of places w ith d r y , su n n y clim ates,
fine scen ery and open space in com parison w ith p laces th a t
are re g a rd e d as d ra b , cold an d o v ercro w d ed . For o th e rs th e
explanation lies in th e in n e r w orkings o f th e m ature cap italist
economy, an d it is th e 'logic of cap ital accum ulation' th a t
d riv e s th e space-econom y an d re s u lts in population r e d is tr i
b u tio n . Some re s e a rc h e rs have been highly eclectic in th e ir
approach to ex p lan atio n , while o th e rs have heroically
defended 'sin g le -c a u se ' ex p lan atio n s su c h as economic
recession o r technological ch a n g e . Similarly some in s is t th a t
th e re a re c o u n try - o r even re g io n -sp e c ific c au se s of th e
tu rn ro u n d while o th e rs poin t o u t th e rem arkable sim ilarities in
both th e co n ten t an d th e tim ing of th e ch a n g e s th a t took
place an d assum e th a t b ecau se of th is th e c a u se s m ust lie in
developm ents th a t a re common to all w estern in d u stria l
societies. With so many ap p ro a c h e s an d su c h a rapidly
ex p an d in g lite r a tu r e , it is not feasible to exam ine each
w rite r's position in d e ta il, in ste a d th e main arg u m e n ts will be
listed to g e th e r w ith th e ir s tr e n g th s an d w eaknesses.
The f ir s t c lu s te r of a rg u m en ts c e n tre on th e m anner in
which s ta tis tic s on population re d is trib u tio n and change a re
in te r p r e te d . The most extrem e position is th a t c o u n te ru rb a n
isatio n is n o th in g real o r n ew ; it is in ste a d an ap p earan ce
p ro d u ced b y th e failu re of th e a d m in istrativ ely -d e fin ed
'u rb a n ' a re a s to en c a p su la te th e c o n tin u o u sly -e x p a n d in g 'd e
facto' u rb a n reg io n s (G ordon, 1971; B u rn s , 1981; H am nett,
1982; Pumain, 1983). Since much of th e a p p ea ran ce of u rb a n
decline and of r u r a l reju v en atio n d u rin g th e 1960s had been
due to th e s ta tistic a l u n d e rb o u n d in g of u rb a n a re a s d u rin g a
period of rap id s u b u rb a n is a tio n , it was in ev itab le p e rh a p s
th a t th e tre n d s in th e 1970s would b e view ed as a p ro d u c t of
the same p ro c e ss now o p e ra tin g at an e x te n d e d sp atia l scale.
T h ere i s , h o w ev er, a se rio u s problem w ith th is
arg u m en t. T he mix of p ro c e sse s a ffe c tin g th e ch a n g e s ta k in g
place w ithin la b o u r-m a rk e t a re a s is v e ry d iffe re n t from th a t
affectin g in te r-la b o u r-m a rk e t a re a c h a n g e s. The form er a re
dom inated by p ro c e sse s su ch as h o u sin g su b -m a rk e t form ation
and social se g re g a tio n ; th e la tte r a re dom inated by p ro c e sse s
such as 'd e in d u stria lisa tio n ' an d th e em ergence of new sp atial
divisions of lab o u r (see below ). It is not wise to conflate th e
two levels o r to gloss o v e r th e ir d iffe re n c e s. S u b u rb a n isa tio n
was th e main form of p o pulation re d is trib u tio n ta k in g place
within lab o u r-m ark et a re a s a fte r 1950, b u t it slowed down
appreciably d u rin g th e e a rly 1970s an d in most w estern
239
COUNTERURBANISATION
co u n trie s h as rem ained a t a low level e v e r sin ce . At th e

in te r-la b o u r-m a rk e t a re a level u rb a n isa tio n was th e main form
of population re d is trib u tio n u n til th e late 1960s, an d was
rep laced b y c o u n te ru rb a n isa tio n in th e early-m id 1970s.
A lthough it is sen sib le an d co n v en ient to make th is
sh a rp d istin c tio n betw een th e two le v e ls, some q u alifications
are called fo r. The fir s t is th a t d ecisions to locate in v estm en t
to a new site w ithin th e la b o u r-m a rk e t a re a might be made on
th e b a sis of th e same c rite ria as a decision to move to a new
a re a . For example an in s u ra n c e com pany seek in g a more
stab le clerical w orkforce might choose to occupy office space
in th e s u b u rb s of a m etropolitan c ity r a th e r th a n locate th e
inv estm en t in a p ro v in cial tow n. T he second qualification
a ris e s from th e fact th a t th e definition o f lab o u r-m a rk e t a re a s
is not unprob lem atic. T he la b o u r-m a rk e t a re a s of c e rta in
kin d s of w o rk ers (su c h as female p a rt-tim e em ployees) 'n e s t'
within th o se of o th e r k in d s of w o rk e rs , an d th e lab o u r-m ark et
a re a s fo r th o se em ployed in th e same ty p e of work o v erlap in
a complex fash io n . A special problem a ris e s with small and
medium -sized tow ns located 50-100 kms from a m etropolitan
city ; a small p ro p o rtio n (o ften a v e ry small p ro p o rtio n ) of th e
econom ically-active population (u su a lly male w h ite-collar
w o rk ers) commute to th e centred c ity while most work locally
o r in n e a rb y small to w n s. Many of th e s e k in d s of places have
ex p an d ed in population an d employment in th e re c e n t perio d
but it would u sually be unw ise to assum e th a t it is th e
commuting lin k with th e major city th a t h as been o f c e n tra l
im portance in th a t grow th (T a a ffe , 1980).
To sum m arise, a lth o u g h it is not alw ays easy to draw the
dividing line betw een local in tra -la b o u r-m a rk e t a re a sp atial
deco n cen tratio n an d non-local in te r-la b o u r-m a rk e t a rea
deco n cen tratio n , th e s ta tis tic a l u n d e rb o u n d in g of u rb a n a re a s
is not th e cau se of th e population 'tu r n r o u n d '. S tatistical
u n d e rb o u n d in g is in d e e d a problem in th e a n a ly sis o f
m igration d a ta , an d sub u rb a n isa tio n was im portant d u rin g th e
1950-80 p e rio d , b u t th e judgem ent th a t c o u n te ru rb a n isa tio n
rep laced u rb a n isa tio n aro u n d 1970 is b a se d upon inform ation
at se v e ra l sp atial scales and how ever b ro ad ly d efin ed th e
m etropolitan and in d u s tria l a re a s a r e , th e re s u lts a re con
sis te n t w ith th e view th a t more th a n ju s t su b u rb a n isa tio n was
in v o lv ed . S u b u rb a n isa tio n might ju s t be able to ex p lain some
of th e v ariatio n in th e n e t m igration r a te s o f B elgian
p ro v in c e s, b u t it is h a rd ly eq u al to th e ta s k of ex p lain in g th e
v aria tio n s in th e ra te s of th e Jap a n e se p re fe c tu re s (ab o u t
twice as la rg e in a r e a ) , o r th e F re n c h re g io n s (se v e n tim es
la r g e r ) , o r th e tu rn ro u n d in Iris h n e t m igration (tw en ty tim es
l a r g e r ) , o r th a t of th e American South (one h u n d re d tim es
la rg e r) (F ield in g , 1982).
A second 's ta tis tic a l' arg u m en t is th a t th e re is no
in co n sisten cy betw een a c o u n te ru rb a n isa tio n p a tte rn o f net
m igration g ain s an d lo sses and co n tin u ed p re fe re n c e fo r larg e
240
COUNTERURBANISATION
city liv in g . T his comes ab o u t th ro u g h th e fact th a t a v e ry

high p ro p o rtio n of th e population o f w e ste rn c o u n trie s live in
th e la rg e st cities so th a t n et m igration g a in s to o th e r a re a s at
th e ex p en se of th e se cities can c o -e x ist w ith a situ a tio n in
which th e in h a b ita n ts o f th e se o th e r a re a s a re more likely to
move to th e cities th a n th e in h a b ita n ts o f th e c itie s a re to
move to th e o th e r a re a s . In a c o u n try th a t had one c ity o f
one million in h a b ita n ts an d 100,000 people liv in g in ru ra l
are a s th e p ro b a b ility of a p e rso n m oving from th e c ity to th e
ru ra l a re a s would have to be one te n th o f th e p ro b a b ility o f a
p e rso n moving in th e re v e rs e d irectio n fo r th e ir n e t m igration
balances to be zero (A lonso, 1978). While th is is undeniably
tru e its relev an ce to an ex p lan atio n of c o u n te ru rb a n isa tio n is
re s tric te d to th o se who place p aram ount im portance upon
m ig ran t's p re fe re n c e s in th e ir th e o re tic a l schem es (se e
below).
A re la te d idea is th a t since th e n e t m igration g ain s of
the major cities was fuelled b y r u r a l depopulation linked with
th e decline of a g ric u ltu ra l em ploym ent, it was th e d ry in g up
of th e source of m ig ran ts th a t was re sp o n sib le fo r th e t u r n -
round (M yklebost, 1984). It is tr u e th a t th e p ro p o rtio n of th e
econom ically-active population em ployed in a g ric u ltu re had
fallen to a v e ry low level in many w e ste rn c o u n trie s by 1970,
b u t th is p ro p o rtio n co n tin u ed to decline a fte r 1970 ev en if the
num bers of people th u s released to s u s ta in u rb a n isa tio n w ere
much low er th a n th o se of th e 1950s and 1960s. More
im p o rtan tly , th e tu rn ro u n d in n e t m igration was a s m arked a
fe a tu re o f reg io n s w ith high ru ra l population d e n sitie s as of
reg io n s w ith low d e n sitie s (C encini et a l . , 1983).
Most of th e rem aining a rg u m e n ts of a 's ta tis tic a l' n a tu re
a d d re s s th e problem of th e re v e rs a l in major m etropolitan a re a
population change from g row th to d e c lin e , and th e re fo re
em phasise fa c to rs such as falling b ir th r a te s since 1965
(A lonso, 1978) an d ch an g es in household com position an d size
(B on v alet, 1983). T h ese c o n trib u tio n s an d th o se o f th e u rb a n
life cycle school (B e rg , 1981, 1982; D re w e tt, 1980, 1983; Hall
and H ay, 1980; K laassen , 1981) do not ex p lain th e tr e n d s in
net m igration and th e re fo re will not be in c lu d ed in th is
rev iew .
A second c lu s te r o f a rg u m e n ts c e n tre on th e notion th a t
th e ch an g in g p a tte r n s of n e t m igration can b e s t b e u n d e r
stood b y re la tin g them to th e place p re fe re n c e s o f th e
m igrants th em selv es. It is tr u e th a t th e c o u n te ru rb a n isa tio n
o f th e early 1970s coincided w ith a h e ig h ten ed sen se o f d is
satisfactio n w ith w estern u rb a n life , pow erfully e x p re s s e d in
th e neo-M althusianism of th e 'lim its to g ro w th ' school a n d in
the d isp a ra te p ro te s t movements th a t came to g e th e r u n d e r th e
b a n n e r of th e 'g re e n alliance' (J o n e s , 1984). It is also th e
case th a t circu m stan ces can a ris e when in d iv id u als and
families can e x e rc ise in a re la tiv e ly u n c o n stra in e d m an n er, a
choice of a place of re sid e n c e betw een d iffe re n t tow ns and
241
COUNTERURBANISATION
reg io n s. T his is most obviously so for th e w ealthy re tir e d

(C rib ie r, 1982; Law, 1976), b u t it can also hap p en w hen, in a
highly segm ented lab o u r m ark et, th e su p p ly of a p p ro p ria te ly
qualified p e rso n s for p a rtic u la r k in d s of w ork is fa r le ss th a n
th e num ber of jobs on o ffe r. T h is situ a tio n te n d s o f c o u rse to
a rise most read ily d u rin g tim es of g e n e ra l lab o u r sh o rta g e
such as e x iste d in many w e ste rn c o u n trie s d u rin g th e 1960s.
However, even in tim es of high unem ploym ent, th e choice of
place of resid en ce c a n , fo r some, be re la tiv e ly u n c o n stra in e d .
Some com m entators on th e v e ry h ig h ra te s of unem ploym ent in
ce rta in re s o rt a re a s , su g g e st th a t th is is due to th e a ttr a c
tiv e n e ss of th e se a re a s to th e u n a tta c h e d unem ployed (Dean
e t ad. , 1984).
Those who u se th e se a rg u m e n ts found su p p o rt in th e
re s u lts of q u e stio n n a ire s u rv e y s of m ig ran ts' re a so n s for
moving which showed th a t environm ental co n sid e ra tio n s
fig u red prom inently (L ong, 1979), an d th a t th e most p r e
fe rre d re sid e n tia l location was th a t of a small town w ithin
fairly easy tra v e llin g d ista n c e of a major c ity (Z u ich es, 1980).
T hey also point o u t th a t th e o p p o rtu n itie s fo r retirem ent
m igration had in c re a se d with th e ex p an sion of occupational
pension schem es (B o u rn e , 1980), an d th a t th e a ttra c tiv e n e s s
of su ch a move had been in c re a se d th ro u g h fam iliarity with
o th e r reg io n s as a re s u lt of h e ig h te n e d g eographical mobility
d u rin g c a re e r developm ent, in c re a se d le is u re tra v e l an d a rise
in th e ow nership of 'seco n d homes' (C oppock, 1977; White,
1984).
N e v e rth e le ss, d e sp ite th e p o p u la rity of th e place p r e
feren ce explanation among most N orth American an d ce rta in
W estern E uropean w rite rs (L ong, 1979; D rew ett, 1983), the
contention h e re is th a t since m igration d ecisions a re typically
c o n stra in e d by w ealth, em ploym ent, h o u sin g an d family con
sid e ra tio n s, th is position should p lay no more th an a s u p
p o rtiv e role in th e ex p lan atio n of c o u n te ru rb a n isa tio n and
should be larg ely confined to to u ris t employment an d r e tir e
ment m igration (F ield in g , 1982).
A th ir d c lu s te r of a rg u m e n ts c e n tre s on economic
chan g es th a t have a d v a n ta g e d th e r u r a l and p e rip h e ra l
reg io n s o v e r th e m etropolitan re g io n s (K eeble, 1980). Some
exp lan atio n s w ithin th is c a teg o ry a re tautological in th a t th ey
a re only triv ia lly o r definitionally tr u e ; th e ir c o rre c tn e s s lies
in th e ir mode of e x p re ssio n not in th e world th a t th e y are
supposed to r e p r e s e n t. For exam ple, to say th a t c o u n te r-
u rb a n isa tio n h as o c c u rre d b e c a u se , a f te r 1970, th e d is
economies of agglom eration outw eighed th e econom ies, o r th a t
M yrdalian 's p re a d ' e ffe c ts came to p redom inate o v e r 'b a c k
w ash' effe c ts is not to explain th e developm ent b u t to d e s
crib e it in a d iffe re n t w ay. T he q u estio n 'w hat hap p en ed to
re v e rs e th e balance of a d v a n ta g e and d isa d v a n ta g e ? ' rem ains
un an sw ered .
242
COUNTERURBANISATION
Similarly th e s ta n d a rd (n e o -c la ssic al) economic model o f

m igration is not much help in ex p lain in g th e tu rn ro u n d
(Fielding, 1982; G ober, 1984). Of c e n tra l sig n ifican ce to an
assessm ent of th e u se fu ln e ss of economic th e o ry is th e fact
th a t c o u n te ru rb a n isa tio n in v o lv es n e t m igration loss in those
regions th a t re ta in high p e r c a p ita incom es a n d low unem ploy
ment ra te s (th e m etropolitan r e g io n s ) , an d net m igration gain
in th e reg io n s of low w ages a n d h ig h unem ploym ent (th e ru ra l
and p e rip h e ra l re g io n s) (P lan e, 1984; B o u ch et, 1983). T h is is
precisely th e opp o site of w hat would b e e x p ec ted on th e b a sis
of th e n eo-classical economic model (Z elin sk i, 1983).
A nother line of arg u m en t w ithin th is c a te g o ry is th a t the
tu rn ro u n d h as o c c u rre d b ecau se of economic recessio n an d th e
e n erg y c ris is (K och, 1980). US com m entators point o u t th a t
e n erg y s c a rc ity can have m ultiple e ffe c ts on th e u rb a n and
regional system (Wardwell an d B row n, 1981). It can en co u rag e
investm ent in re s o u rc e -ric h re g io n s located well away from th e
e x istin g c e n tre s of in d u s tria l a c tiv ity (su c h a s n o rth w est
A u stralia, n o rth e rn S co tlan d , w e st-c e n tra l C anada and th e
west coast of Norway) an d in th is way a s s is t th e net
m igration tu rn ro u n d . On th e o th e r h and it should have th e
overall e ffect of d isc o u ra g in g d e c o n cen tratio n since it p u ts a
premium upon th e minimisation of tr a n s p o r t c o sts and th e
achievem ent of sp a tia l proxim ity (L o n g , 1981). T he economic
recessio n argum ent r e s ts p a rtly upon th e e x p e rie n c e of the
1930s when m igration stream s to th e major in d u s tria l c itie s of
the n o rth -e a s t an d n o rth -c e n tra l USA w ere tem porarily
red u ced by th e v e ry high unem ploym ent ra te s th a t w ere to be
found th e re . B ut th e situ a tio n in th e 1970s was in te re s tin g ly
d iffe re n t. In most w e ste rn c o u n trie s th e developm ent o f social
w elfare se rv ic e s in th e p o st World War II period meant th a t
th e unem ployed w ere cush io n ed ag ain st th e d e sp e ra te p o v e rty
ex p erien ced b y th e ir p re -w a r e q u iv a le n ts. F u rth e rm o re , th e
decline in a g ric u ltu ra l employment an d ev en more so th e con
cen tratio n of a g ric u ltu ra l land o w n ersh ip in th e h a n d s of
larg e c ap italist farm ers h as re s u lte d in a much re d u c e d
capacity of r u r a l a re a s to a b so rb th e u rb a n unem ployed.
T h u s, alth o u g h much r e tu r n m igration to r u ra l re g io n s took
place d u rin g th e 1970s, v e ry few of th e m ig ra n ts r e tu rn e d to
a g ric u ltu re (K in g , 1983; R h o ad es, 1978). In an y c a se , as
many o b s e rv e rs adm it, th e tu rn ro u n d came in to b e in g se v e ra l
y e a rs b efo re th e economic c ris is of 1973/4; it o c c u rre d d u rin g
the la tte r p a rt of th e long p o st-w a r p e rio d of grow th and
p ro s p e rity (A lonso, 1978; In o u e, 1983). It is p e rh a p s
p e rtin e n t to note th a t th e recessio n arg u m en t is now coming
to be u se d not as an ex p lan atio n o f th e d e ce n tra lisatio n
ten d en cies of th e 1970s, b u t of th e ir s u b se q u e n t demise!
(Ille ris, 1984).
F inally, th e re is th e notion th a t th e tu rn r o u n d in net
m igration was b ro u g h t about b y g overnm ent policies fo r u rb a n
and regional developm ent. D espite th e fact th a t th e new
243
COUNTERURBANISATION
p a tte r n of n e t m igration c o rre la te d closely w ith th e b ia s in

th e se policies a g a in st th e major m etropolitan reg io n s a n d in
fav o u r of th e ru r a l an d p e rip h e ra l re g io n s, an d d e sp ite the
sizeable public fu n d s d ev o ted to regional developm ent p ro
grammes notably in c e rta in W estern E uropean c o u n trie s , th e re
is much ev idence to s u g g e s t th a t th e tu r n ro u n d would have
o c c u rre d anyw ay; th a t is , w ithout s ta te policy a ssista n c e
(F ield in g , 1982). T h is judgem ent is s u p p o rte d by th e fac ts
(i) th a t th e tu rn ro u n d o c c u rre d in th o se c o u n trie s su c h as
th e US w here a re a developm ent program m es w ere poorly
developed, an d (ii) th a t w here th e policies w ere w ell-devel-
opcd an d w ere g e a re d to th e re v e rs a l of decline in both p e r
ip h e r a l/r u r a l an d 'old in d u s tria l' reg io n s su ch as F ra n c e , it
was only in th e form er th a t th e tu rn ro u n d in n et m igration
ra te s took place.
T h is b rie f review of most of th e ex p lan atio n s p re se n tly
available to u s h as p ro v e d to be r a th e r neg ativ e in tone.
Only th e em phasis upon th e role of place p re fe re n c e s in the
m igration d ecisions of in d iv id u a ls an d h ouseholds h a s been
uph eld w ith any real e n th u sia sm , an d th e n with th e pro v iso
th a t it is only a m inority of people in s tric tly lim ited s itu
atio n s th a t a re in a position to act u p o n th e ir p re fe re n c e s .
T h ere is , ho w ev er, one p e rs p e c tiv e on th e c a u se s o f
c o u n te ru rb a n isa tio n th a t is , in th e opinion o f th is rev iew e r,
much more prom ising th a n th o se liste d above. T his p e rs p e c
tiv e em phasises th e im portance o f jo b -c re a tin g and jo b -
d estro y in g in v estm en t decision in d eterm ining population
re d is trib u tio n an d tr e n d s in u rb a n is a tio n , and it places th e se
decision w ithin a h isto ric a l a n a ly sis of ch a n g in g social class
re la tio n s. T he key concept is th a t of 'sp a tia l division of
lab o u r' (M assey, 1979, 1984; S to rp e r and W alker, 1984;
W alker, 1985). It is a s s e rte d th a t th e sh ift in th e p a tte r n s of
net m igration to w ard s a c o u n te ru rb a n isa tio n form is b e st
u n d e rsto o d as re s u ltin g from th e c h a n g e o v er from a situ atio n
in w hich each place c o n c e n tra te d upon all th e ta s k s involved
in th e p ro d u c tio n of one o r a re la te d se t of p ro d u c ts o r
serv ic e s (reg io n al secto ral sp ecialisatio n [R S S ]), to one in
which p laces becam e d iffe re n tia te d from one a n o th e r with
re s p e c t to th e p a rt o r role th e y p la y e d in th e p ro d u c tio n
p ro c e ss (h ie ra rc h ic a l/fu n c tio n a l o r sim ply 'new ' sp a tia l d iv
ision of lab o u r [NSDL]) (H ym er, 1972; L ip ietz, 1982).
Up u n til th e 1960s RSS had dom inated, a n d b ecau se
th e re was a common sh ift in 'w e s te rn ' societies away from
employment in a g ric u ltu re an d to w ard s th e ex p an sio n of
employment in (i) m a rk e t-o rie n te d m a ss-p ro d u ced consum er
goods an d (ii) pub lic an d p e rso n a l s e rv ic e s , th e r e was a
major sh ift of population away from ru r a l a re a s an d 'old
in d u s tria l' re g io n s, an d to w ard s th e la rg e s t in d u s tria l and
commercial c itie s , especially w hen th e se w ere located in th e
'c o re ' reg io n s of th e national te r r ito r y . T his re d is trib u tio n of
population p ro d u ced an 'u rb a n is a tio n ' re la tio n sh ip betw een n et
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COUNTERURBANISATION
m igration an d settlem en t size (p o s itiv e ), a n d a n e t movement

from th e p e rip h e ra l p laces to th e core o n e s. Not s u rp ris in g ly
th e normal method fo r a n a ly sin g an d fo re c a stin g u rb a n an d
regional chan g e d u rin g th is p e rio d was 's h if t- s h a r e ' a n a ly sis.
T his applied national employment g ro w th ra te s by se c to r to
th e employment s tr u c tu r e s of th e in d iv id u al places so as to
p ro d u ce th e 'e x p e c te d ' employment c h an g e in th o se p la ces.
T his was th e n com pared w ith th e a c tu a l em ployment c h a n g e . A
close fit was u su ally found betw een th e e x p e cted ch an g e and
th e actu al c h a n g e , an d th is was in te r p r e te d to mean th a t th e
's tr u c tu r a l' com ponent, th a t is , th e e ffect due to fav o u rab le
o r u n fav o u rab le employment s tr u c tu r e at th e s ta r tin g d a te was
dominant (A hnstrom , 1982).
By th e 1970s it was c le a r th a t th e s tr u c tu r a l com ponent
in s h ift-s h a re an a ly se s was no lo n g e r dom inant; in d e ed in
some s tu d ie s it was found th a t th e a c tu a l employment chan g es
in p laces w ere in v e rse ly re la te d to th e c h an g e s e x p e c te d on
th e b a sis of th e ir secto ral employment s tr u c tu r e s (F o th erg ill
and G udgin, 1982). T h u s ru r a l a re a s which sh o u ld , because
of th e ir a g ric u ltu ra l em ploym ent, be d eclining w ere e x p e ri
encing employment g row th in b o th m a n u factu rin g and
se rv ic e s , a n d th e major m etropolitan a re a s which sh o u ld ,
because of th e ir b ias to w ard s 'm odern' in d u s try an d financial
se rv ic e s , be grow ing, w ere in fact e x p e rie n c in g employment
stag n atio n o r slow decline o v e ra ll, an d ra p id decline in th e ir
m anu factu rin g em ploym ent. T h is p u zzlin g situ atio n is r a th e r
neatly explained b y th e notion th a t RSS had come to be
rep laced by th e NSDL.
U nder th e NSDL, in s te a d o f th e d iffe re n c e s betw een
places b ein g due to th e d iffe re n t p a r ts th e y play in th e social
division of lab o u r in society (a re s u lt of com petition in th e
m a rk e t), th e y a ris e from th e se p a ra tio n o f ta s k s w ithin a
p a rtic u la r p ro d u c tio n p ro c e ss (th e tech n ical division o f lab o u r
which is a re s u lt of p la n n in g w ithin th e firm , o r of a p lan n ed
sep aratio n of ta s k s betw een firm s). T h e most fundam ental
sep aratio n is th a t betw een conception/com m and a n d ex ecu tio n .
In creasin g ly p laces w ere becom ing d iffe re n tia te d on th e b asis
of w h eth er th e y w ere p rim arily o rie n te d to w ard s th e a c tiv ities
of m anagem ent, su ch as s tra te g ic d ecision-m aking about what
goods o r se rv ic e s should be p ro d u c e d , o r prim arily o rie n te d
to w ard s th e ro u tin e ex ecu tio n of ta s k s in fa c to rie s, sh o p s an d
offices (S c o tt, 1982). T h is d iffe re n tia tio n d id not ta k e place
in a vacuum ; th e em ergence of a NSDL was closely re la te d to
th e social h isto rie s of d iffe re n t a re a s ; firm s (a n d governm ent
agencies) e v a lu a te d p laces from th e p o in t o f view of th e firm 's
need s fo r d iffe re n t k in d s of lab o u r a n d from th e point of view
o f th e ir overall efficiency of o p e ra tio n . In g e n e ra l major
m etropolitan a re a s w ere ju d g e d to b e n e c e ssa ry fo r th e most
specialised management fu n ctio n s an d fo r th o se ac tiv itie s most
closely linked to m anagem ent such as financial s e rv ic e s ,
b a n k in g and in s u ra n c e , ta x an d o th e r legal a d v ice , an d
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COUNTERURBANISATION
m arketing se rv ic e s . P re stig e en v iro n m en ts n e a r to o r in easy

contact w ith m etropolitan cities te n d e d to be chosen as site s
fo r inv estm en t in re se a rc h an d developm ent a c tiv itie s. P ro
duction re q u irin g in d u s tria l sk ills, and fo r which a long
tra d itio n of c ra ft la b o u r was an a d v a n ta g e te n d e d to g ra v ita te
tow ard s th e lo n g -e sta b lish e d in d u s tria l a re a s (o ften coalfield
reg io n s o r major p o r t s ) . R outine p ro d u c tio n was gen erally
closed down in th e major m etropolitan and old in d u s tria l
re g io n s, and new inv estm en t took place in r u r a l a n d p e rip h
era l reg io n s (o r ab ro a d ) o r in p laces w here th e re w ere
w o rk ers th a t h ad not p re v io u sly b een employed (su c h as
women in c e rta in coalfield a re a s ) (C la rk , 1981). T his s e p a r
ation of lab o u r fo rces took place w ithin o rg a n isa tio n s em ploy
in g office s ta ffs as well a s th o se em ploying manual w o rk e rs.
The fav o u red locations fo r th e ro u tin e ta s k s of th e form er
were m edium -sized p ro v in cial c itie s and f re e -s ta n d in g tow ns
close b y th e major m etropolitan c itie s; th e fav o u red locations
for th e la tte r w ere small and m edium -sized tow ns in ru ra l
a re a s (A ydalot, 1984; E ric k so n , 1980; T o d tlin g , 1984).
The re a so n s for th e ch an g e o v e r from RSS to NSDL a re
many and com plex, b u t th e y inclu d e th e tr e n d to w ard s a
con cen tratio n of ow nership an d co n tro l as m ultiplant and
m ultiproduct com panies became firs t national and th e n 't r a n s
national' in th e scope of th e ir o p e ra tio n s (F irn , 1975); th e
equalisation of th e 'g e n e ra l co n d itio n s of p ro d u c tio n ' betw een
d iffe re n t p laces accom panying th e sta n d a rd isa tio n of p u b lic ly -
pro v id ed goods an d s e rv ic e s su ch as th e ro a d , ra il, a ir and
telecom m unications n e tw o rk s, e le c tric ity , g as and w ater p ro
vision and h ealth an d ed ucation se rv ic e s (W ardwell, 1980);
and th e e ffe c ts of technological ch an g e which led to a d e
skilling of many jobs a s well as a re d u c tio n in th e need for
pro d u ctio n of goods a n d s e rv ic e s to be serv ic e d by v e ry
larg e w orkforces c o n c e n tra te d in single w orkplaces. It might
well be a rg u e d , h ow ever, th a t all of th e above w ere 'facili-
ta tiv e ' for th e ch an g eo v er to a NSDL in th e sen se th a t th e y
made it p ossible fo r o rg a n isa tio n s to co n sid er a sp a tia l
sep aratio n of fu n ctio n s an d in p a rtic u la r a d is p e rs a l of
ro u tin e p ro d u ctio n to ru r a l an d p e rip h e ra l re g io n s , b u t th a t
th e re m ust have been re a so n s fo r su c h a d is p e rs a l. Indeed
th e re w ere. The ra p id an d fairly co n tin u o u s g ro w th s of th e
w estern economies a f te r 1945 led to a g en e ra l sh o rta g e of
labour d u rin g th e 1960s, a n d th u s to rec ru itm e n t and
in d u s tria l-re la tio n s problem s fo r em ployers w ith la rg e w ork
fo rces, w orking in larg e esta b lish m e n ts in th e major in d u s tria l
and m etropolitan c itie s. In situ s u b s titu tio n of m achinery for
labour was re s is te d an d was o ften d ifficu lt to e ffe c t. One
p a rtia l solution to th is problem was th e u se o f im m igrant
w o rk e rs, an d it was th e s e w o rk ers th a t came to occupy many
o f th e ro u tin e fa c to ry , b u ild in g -site a n d o th e r manual jobs in
th e major in d u s tria l cities from th e e a rly 1960s on. T he o th e r
solution was to seek o u t 'g r e e n ' lab o u r e lsew h ere. T h is w as to
246
COUNTERURBANISATION
be found among women in r u r a l an d old in d u s tria l a re a s and

more generally among you n g men an d women in sm aller lab o u r
m arket a re a s w here th e w ork p ra c tic e s an d a ttitu d e s o f th e
la rg e facto ry o r office w ere not endem ic. T hese d iffe re n c es
betw een tow ns an d re g io n s w ith r e s p e c t to th e ir social
h isto rie s an d political c u ltu re s (B ag n asco , 1981; W einstein,
1978) w ere sometimes m anifested in v a ria tio n s in lev els of
unionisation (many US s tu d ie s em phasise th e low lev els of
unionisation in th e 's u n b e lt' s ta te s in com parison w ith th e
in d u s tria l N o rth cen tral an d N o rth e a ste rn s ta te s ) (S aw ers and
T ab b , 1984; P eet, 1983), b u t th e y w ere also rev ealed in th e
incidence of in d u s tria l conflict and in levels of la b o u r tu r n
o v e r, b o th of which te n d e d to be h ig h e r in la rg e r in d u s tria l
cities th a n in sm aller tow ns and r u r a l a r e a s . 3 T he sw itching
of investm ent to w ard s th e se sm aller p laces an d more p e rip h
era l reg io n s was accom panied by a major d isin v estm e n t,
especially in m an u factu rin g in d u s tr y , in th e la rg e s t cities
(A hnstrom , 1984; B luestone an d H a rriso n , 1982; CDP, 1977;
H arriso n , 1984; Miles, 1982; T ow nsend, 1983).
The ch an g eo v er from RSS to NSDL might be e x p ec ted to
produce c e rta in m igration outcom es; th e se can be com pared
with what actu ally h ap p en ed :
(i) it would be ex p e c te d th a t o v erall levels of in te r-la b o u r
m arket a re a mobility should d e c re a se (a) because as
secto ral d iv ersificatio n rep laces se c to ra l specialisation
th e 'p u s h fa c to r' of job loss in th e a re a 's sta p le in d u s
tr y should be much re d u c e d (A y dalot, 1983). For
exam ple, th is d iv ersificatio n b re a k s th e lin k s betw een a
decline in a g ric u ltu ra l employment and r u r a l d ep o p u
lation; (b ) becau se more g e n e ra lly , job c re atio n in
non-m etropolitan lab o u r m arkets would be ex p e cte d to
h alt non-m etropolitan to m etropolitan m igration; an d (c)
becau se as female a c tiv ity ra te s in c re a se so also do th e
problem s of mobility fo r tw o-job h o u seh o ld s. As was
seen in th e in tro d u c tio n in te r-la b o u r m arket movements
have in d eed d e c re a sed d u rin g th e p erio d since about
1970.
(ii) it would be ex p e c te d th a t th e social com position of
m igration stream s would change (a ) b ecause manual
3It is not b ein g claimed th a t th e sw itch in g of m an u factu rin g

an d 'b a sic ' serv ice inv estm en t to small an d medium sized
tow ns and ru ra l a re a s is only a re sp o n se to th e se u rb a n and
regional d iffe re n c es in social h is to ry . Site developm ent con
s tr a in ts , h ig h land c o sts an d b urdensom e ta x atio n have
c o n trib u te d to th e c o u n te ru rb a n tr e n d in location decisions
tak en by em ployers, an d d iffe re n c e s in h o u sin g co sts
fav o u rin g non-m etropolitan a re a s have e n co u ra g ed th e same
tre n d am ongst o w n e r-o c c u p iers.
247
C O U NT E R UR B A N I S A T I O N
w o rk er mobility would be le ss not only as a re s u lt of

th e re a so n s liste d above b u t also b ecau se th e in c re a s
in g im portance of th e 'social w ag e', and th e in c re a sin g
sta n d a rd isa tio n of it s v a rio u s elem ents (h e a lth , e d u
c atio n , social s e c u r i t y . . . ) b etw een places re d u c e s the
a d v a n ta g e s to be o b tain ed from moving away from u n
em ploym ent, p oor job s e c u rity o r low w ages; and (b )
b ecau se to obtain an efficien t u se o f th e ir h ig h e r paid
m anpow er, o rg a n isa tio n s would tr a n s f e r tech n ical and
m anagerial p e rso n n e l from one p a r t o f th e ir o p eratio n s
to a n o th e r. A gain th is is found to be th e c a se. T ra n s
fe rs w ithin o rg a n isa tio n s c o n s titu te d about one q u a rte r
of all m ig ratio n -d écisio n s (o f b o th th e economically
activ e and th e r e tir e d ) in th e US in th e 1970s (L ong,
1979), an d th e 'new m iddle c la ss' c o n stitu te a large
and in c re a sin g p ro p o rtio n of all econom ically-active
m ig ran ts (D avanzo, 1978; McKay a n d Whitelaw, 1978;
Pohl and S oleilhavoup, 1982).
(iii) it would be ex p e c te d th a t th e m an u factu rin g d is in v e s t
ment and job loss in th e major m etropolitan an d large
in d u s tria l cities a n d th e sizeable new in v estm en t in
both m an u factu rin g an d se rv ic e s in small an d medium
sized tow ns in ru r a l an d p e rip h e ra l re g io n s would lead
at le a st to an en d to th e 'u rb a n is a tio n ' p a tte r n o f new
m igration g ain s an d lo sse s, an d p o tentially to a r e v e r
sal of th a t p a tte r n . T hat th is h as in d ee d been so has
b een amply d em o n strated in th e firs t p a rt of th is
p a p e r. The NSDL co n c e p t, ho w ever, also s u g g e s ts
th a t, while d e -in d u s tria lis a tio n may well affect all large
c itie s, th o se th a t house th e h ig h e s t-o rd e r fu n ctio n s of
com panies an d p ublic in s titu tio n s may well su sta in th e ir
employment levels th ro u g h th e f u r th e r accretio n of
th e se k in d s of a c tiv itie s (G o d d a rd , 1978). T h e re are
some sig n s th a t th is is th e c a se , w ith capital c itie s and
cities w ith major head office q u a r te r s m aintaining th e ir
p o p u latio n s th ro u g h m igration, while o th e r la rg e in d u s
tria l cities co n tin u e to lose th e ir s .
It is of c o u rse no p ro o f of a se t of id e a s to say th a t what h a s

h appened is conform able w ith th e outcom es p re d ic te d , b u t th e
relativ e lack of c o rresp o n d en ce of e x p e c te d an d a c tu a l o u t
comes found in th e o th e r cases com pared with th e 'RSS to
NSDL tra n sitio n model' e n c o u ra g e s f u r th e r in v estig atio n o f th e
significance of th e c h a n g e s in th e 'g e o g ra p h y of p ro d u c tio n '
for an u n d e rs ta n d in g of re c e n t tr e n d s in m igration a n d u rb a n
developm ent in w estern c o u n trie s.
In th e late 1970s th e c o u n te ru rb a n isa tio n tre n d was its e lf
modified (A rch an g eli, 1980). T he e a rlie r p e rio d of d e c e n tra l
ised p ro d u ctio n b ased upon in v e stm e n ts in b ra n c h -p la n ts and
relo cated offices gave way somewhat to a new form o f d ec en
tra lise d p ro d u ctio n b ased upon su b c o n tra c tu a l re la tio n sh ip s
248
COUNTERURBANISATION
betw een 'c o re ' firm s, located in th e m etropolitan c itie s , and

'p e rip h e ra l' small firm s u su ally located in small an d medium
sized tow ns in ru r a l an d p e rip h e ra l re g io n s (A y d alo t, 1983b;
B ru sco , 1982; D anson, 1982; M u rray , 1983; N orton, 1979).
One exam ple of th is is th e arm am ents in d u s tr y . G overnm ent
'd efen ce' estab lish m en ts an d asso ciated m an u factu rin g seem to
have been im p o rtan t in ex p lain in g th e ra p id economic grow th
of p a r ts of th e American so u th (T abb in Saw ers a n d T ab b ,
1984), and th e h ig h -tech n o lo g y equipm ent re q u ire d fo r
m odern w arfare form ed th e b a sis of th e ra p id ex p an sio n of
'Silicon Valley' in C alifornia (S axenian in M arkusen, 1983).
Defence p ro cu rem en t an d defence e sta b lish m en ts a re also
involved in th e economic grow th o f th e 'M4 c o rrid o r' in
B ritain an d of p a r ts of th e 'm idi' in F ra n c e . As w e ste rn econ
omies a re f u r th e r p e n e tra te d by th e im ports o f consum er
goods m ass-p ro d u ced in e a s t an d so u th e a st Asia and in o th e r
n e w ly -in d u stria lise d c o u n trie s , it may well be th a t th e em erg
ence of th e se zones of sm all-scale p ro d u c tio n o f h ig h -te c h -
nology p ro d u c ts an d re la te d s e rv ic e s will become th e dom inant
elem ent of c o u n te ru rb a n isa tio n - a tr e n d th a t began on the
v e ry d iffe re n t b a sis of 'F o rd is t' b ra n c h -p la n t m ass-p ro d u ctio n
of sta n d a rd is e d p ro d u c ts fo r know n m ark ets in th e late 1960s
and e a rly 1970s (M assey, 1983; S abel, 1982).
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g ratio n in th e D eveloped World' in D .L . Brown and J.M .
Wardwell ( e d s . ) , New D irectio n s in U rb a n -R u ral Mi
g ratio n , Academic P re s s , New Y o rk , p p . 71-114
W einstein, B .L . a n d F ire sto n e , R .E . (1978) Regional Growth
an d Decline in th e US: th e Rise of th e Sunbelt and the
Decline of th e N o rth e a s t, P ra e g e r, New York
White, P. (1984) T he West E uropean C ity: a Social Geo
g r a p h y , Longman, Harlow
Whitelaw, J .S . e t al. (1984) 'T h e A u stralian U rban System ' in
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S y ste m s, O xford U niv ersity P re s s , p p . 71-91
W itherick, M .E. (1983) 'R ecen t Population C hanges in Jap an
and th e ir Spatial Im p lications', G eog. , 6 8 (2 ), 97-114
Yamaguchi, T . (1984) 'T h e Jap a n e se N ational Settlem ent
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p p . 261-279 ---------
Zelinski, W. (1971) 'T h e H ypothesis of th e Mobility T ra n
sitio n ', Geog. R ev . , 61, 219-249
255
COUNTERURBANISATION
Z elinski, W. (1983) 'T h e Im passe in M igration T h e o ry : a

Sketch-M ap for P otential E scapees' in P .A . M orrison
( e d . ) , Population Movements: T h e ir Forms and F unctions
in U rbanization an d D evelopm ent, O rd in a , L iege, p p .
19-46
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T h eo ry ' in D .L . Brown and J.M . Wardwell ( e d s . ) , New
D irections in U rb a n -R u ra l M igration, Academic P re s s ,
New Y ork, p p . 163-188
256
C h ap ter Nine
MIGRATION AND INTRA-URBAN MOBILITY
M. C adw allader
The stu d y of m igration r e p re s e n ts a tru ly in te r-d isc ip lin a ry

field of e n d e a v o u r, in v o lv in g g e o g ra p h e rs , econom ists, sociol
o g is ts , d em o g rap h ers, an d o th e rs . A lthough each discipline
p ro je c ts a p a rtic u la r o rie n ta tio n , su ch th a t econom ists have
ten d ed to em phasise th e in te rre la tio n s h ip s betw een labour
m arkets and m igration while g e o g ra p h e rs h ave h ig h lig h ted th e
sp atial s tr u c tu r e of in te r-re g io n a l flow s, th e re h a s been a
genuine co n v erg en ce of th e d iscip lin ary foci. The p re s e n t
essay re fle c ts th is co n v erg en ce in th a t th e co n c ep ts and
models have been culled from a v a rie ty of p e rs p e c tiv e s . As in
most re c e n t review s of th e m igration lite r a tu re (C la rk , 1982),
a d istin ctio n is made betw een in te r-re g io n a l m igration and
m igration w ithin c itie s , o r re sid e n tia l m obility. Within th e se
two b ro ad categ o ries th e re a d e r will also d isc e rn a somewhat
more inform al d istin ctio n betw een macro and m icro-level
app ro ach es.
INTER-REGIONAL MIGRATION
Many of o u r c u rre n t id e a s about in te r-re g io n a l m igration stem

from th e p io n eerin g work of R av en stein (G rig g , 1977).
R avenstein p o stu la te d a se t of "law s" o r , more a c c u ra te ly ,
gen eralisatio n s th a t w ere in d u c tiv e ly d e riv e d from place of
b ir th d ata fo r v a rio u s p a r ts of th e w orld. In p a rtic u la r , he
made statem en ts co n cern in g b o th th e c h a ra c te ris tic s and
determ in an ts of population movement. F or exam ple, two of his
gen eralisatio n s su g g e s t th a t most m ig ra n ts move only a s h o rt
d ista n c e , an d th a t th e major c au ses of m igration a re economic.
Many of his o rig in al h y p o th e se s have sin ce been confirm ed,
and th e relativ e im portance of p u s h an d p u ll fa c to rs co n tin u es
to p ro v id e a th e o re tic a l fram ew ork fo r much contem porary
re se a rc h (D origo an d T o b le r, 1983).
257
MI GRATION AND I N T R A - U R B A N MOBI LI TY
Spatial P a tte rn s
More re c e n t work on th e sp atial p a tte r n of m igration flows has
em phasised b o th d ista n c e an d d irectio n al b ia se s. In term s of
d ista n c e , a v a rie ty of s tu d ie s have shown th a t th e num ber of
m igrants from any given region d e c re a ses with in c re a sin g
d ista n c e . In a now classic s tu d y , H a g e rstra n d (1957)
examined th e re la tio n sh ip betw een m igration and d istan c e fo r
th e village of A sby in Sw eden. He concluded th a t m igration is
indeed an in v e rs e fu n ctio n of d ista n c e , although th e tem poral
decline in th e d ista n c e coefficient in d ic ated th a t A sb y 's
m igration field was e x p a n d in g . Since H a g e rstra n d 's stu d y a
num ber of sc h o la rs h av e in v e stig a te d th e functional form of
the relatio n sh ip lin k in g m igration and d ista n c e , an d have
su g g e ste d a ra n g e of possib le a lte rn a tiv e s , in clu d in g the
double-log, n eg ativ e e x p o n e n tia l, and s q u a re -ro o t ex p o n en tial
(H ay n es, 1974).
R eg ard less of th e p re c ise functional form , h o w ever, th e
w eight of evidence in d ic a te s th a t th e role of d istan ce has
d ecreased o v e r time. F or exam ple, C layton (1977) found th a t
th e c o n trib u tio n of d ista n c e to th e to tal explained v a riatio n in
in te r - s ta te m igration in th e U nited S ta te s declined p r o g re s s
ively betw een 1935 an d 1970. T h e re is con sid erab le d o u b t,
how ever, as to w h eth er th e in d iv id u al e ffect of d istan c e can
e v e r be sa tisfa c to rily iso la te d . It h a s been a rg u e d th a t
d ista n c e -d e ca y p a ra m e te rs re fle c t a complex com bination of
sp atial s tr u c tu r e , invo lv in g th e size an d co n fig u ratio n of
o rig in s and d e stin a tio n s in a sp atial sy ste m , and in trin sic
in te ra c tio n b e h av io u r, th u s p re c lu d in g an y simple in te r p r e t
ation of th e se p a ra m e te rs (F o th e rin g h a m , 1981).
With re sp e c t to d irectio n al b ia s , th e r e s u lts of d e s c rip
tiv e s tu d ie s a re p e rh a p s even more d ifficu lt to in te r p r e t.
When exam ining th e d irectio n al b ia s in m igration flows betw een
cities in th e U nited S ta te s , Wolpert (1967) concluded th a t
th e re was a d istin c t bias tow ard th e South-W est. As with
d ista n c e , how ev er, su ch a conclusion is tem pered b y th e fact
th a t th e d irectio n al com ponents of m igration stream s a re
in ev itab ly co n stra in e d b y th e e x istin g geom etry of population
d istrib u tio n . T he ex p lo ratio n of m igration flows th ro u g h
v a rio u s forms of lin k ag e an aly sis seem s p o tentially more
prom ising, an d th is a p p ro ach h as b een applied to m igration
d ata from v a rio u s p a r ts of th e w orld. On th e b asis of in te r
action p a tte r n s , th e linkage a n a ly sis g e n e ra te s a h iera rc h ica l
system of m igration field s (S la te r, 1984), th e ch an g in g n a tu re
of which can be u sefu lly m onitored. F or exam ple, u sin g
U nited S ta te s d ata fo r 1935 to 1970, C layton (1977) rev eale d a
red u ctio n in th e num ber of term inal n o d es, re fle c tin g an
in c re a sin g co n cen tratio n a ro u n d a few major d e stin a tio n s,
such as C alifornia, F lo rid a, an d T ex as.
In addition to id e n tify in g d ista n c e an d d irectio n al b ia se s,
a v a rie ty of a u th o rs have attem p ted to s tu d y m igration via
th e p o p u la r g ra v ity model. T h is model p o stu la te s th a t th e
258
MI GRATI ON AND I N T R A - U R B A N MOBI LI TY
amount of m igration betw een an y two re g io n s, o r c itie s , will

be d ire c tly p ro p o rtio n a l to th e p ro d u c t of th e ir p o p u latio n s,
and in v e rse ly p ro p o rtio n al to th e d ista n c e betw een them . If
th e v ariab les a re e x p re s s e d in logarithm ic form , m ultiple
re g re ssio n an aly sis can be u se d to estim ate th e coefficients
associated with population an d d ista n c e . A lthough c ritic ise d
for its ra th e r weak th e o re tic a l b a s e , th e g ra v ity model se rv e d
to dem onstrate how th e notion of p u s h an d p u ll fa c to rs might
be p ro fitab ly o p eratio n alised . In p a r tic u la r, r a th e r th a n
simply u sin g population as a m easure o f regional a ttra c tiv e
n e s s , a v a rie ty of o th e r v a ria b le s b e g a n to b e s u b s titu te d
into th e eq u atio n . For exam ple, along w ith d ista n c e , Lowry
(1966) u se d num ber of p e rso n s in n o n -a g ric u ltu ra l employ
m ent, m an u factu rin g wage r a te s , an d unem ploym ent. When
fittin g a modified form of L ow ry's model to in te r-m e tro p o lita n
m igration flows in C alifornia, R ogers (1967) found th a t o v er
90% of th e v ariatio n was acco u n ted fo r. Since th e n a long list
of a u th o rs have so u g h t to id e n tify th e re la tiv e im portance of
vario u s economic an d social fa c to rs th ro u g h th e co n stru c tio n
of sin g le-eq u atio n re g re ssio n models.
Single-E quation Models

An ex ten siv e list of v a ria b le s have been u se d in su c h sin g le
equation m igration models (G reenw ood, 1975). F ir s t, most
re se a rc h h as shown th a t unem ploym ent ra te s te n d to be
positively re la te d to out-m ig ratio n an d n eg ativ ely rela te d to
in -m ig ratio n . Second, th e o rie s ro o ted in equilibrium economics
a rg u e th a t in any situ atio n c h a ra c te ris e d by in te rre g io n a l
wage d iffe re n tia ls, lab o u r will te n d to m igrate from low to
high income re g io n s. A num ber of stu d ie s have dem o n strated
th a t in-m ig ratio n is positiv ely re la te d to income le v e ls,
although it a p p e a rs th a t d estin atio n income h as a g re a te r
influence on m igration flows th a n o rig in incom e. T h ird , e d u
cational d iffe re n c es account for d iffe re n t m igration r a te s
betw een p la c e s, w ith th e w ell-ed u cated b eing more likely to
be involved in long d ista n c e moves th a n th e ir more poorly
edu cated c o u n te rp a rts . F o u rth , th e p ro p e n s ity of lab o u r force
members to m igrate is likely to d e c re a se w ith in c re a sin g ag e ,
as o ld er people have a s h o r te r e x p e c te d w orking life o v e r
which to realise th e a d v a n ta g e s of m igration. F ifth , grow th in
n o n -a g ric u ltu ra l employment te n d s to be p ositiv ely re la te d to
levels of in -m ig ratio n , alth o u g h re c e n tly th e g row th ra te s fo r
many n on-m etropolitan a re a s have ex ceed ed those of m etropol
itan a re a s . S ix th , v a rio u s stu d ie s have a ttem p ted to m easure
th e impact of su ch environm ental fa c to rs a s clim ate.
Inform ation about p re v io u s m igration flows is also o ften
included in m igration m odels. For exam ple, m igrant sto c k , o r
th e p ro p o rtio n of th e population o f th e s e n d e r a re a re sid in g
in th e re c e iv e r a re a , h as been found to have a positive
relatio n sh ip with m igration. T h is v a ria b le is generally
259
MIGRATION AND I NT RA- URB AN MOBILITY
included as a means of calib ratin g inform ation lev els, and

implies th at p revious out-m ig ran ts send back inform ation
concerning employment o p p o rtu n ities and wage ra te s . Kau and
Sirmans (1977) corroborate th is line of reasoning when they
arg u e th a t th e m igrant stock facto r is especially im portant
when explaining th e behav io u r of those m igrants making th e ir
first in te r-s ta te move. Amount of m igration in the previous
decade has also been used as a m easure of m igrant sto ck , and
found to be positively related to migration flows. This
p a rtic u la r method of m easurem ent, how ever, highlights one of
the problem s involved in in te rp re tin g the theoretical signifi
cance of th e m igrant stock v ariab le, as one would expect
migrant stock to be highly co rrelated with the c u rre n t d e te r
minants of m igration. As Greenwood (1970) su g g e sts, one
could p erh ap s disentangle th e implications of m igrant stock by
comparing the re su lts of d ifferen t models in which it is
included and excluded.
As one might im agine, the explanatory variables in such
models are often in te rre la te d , th u s posing problems of multi-
collinearity when estim ating the reg ressio n coefficients by
ord in ary le a st-sq u a re s analy sis. C onsequently, it has been
suggested th a t th e set of explanatory variables might firs t be
subjected to p rincipal components an aly sis, th u s generating a
smaller num ber of orthogonal components th at reflect the
underlying sim ilarities of the original variables (R iddell,
1970). These com ponents, as measured by the component
scores, are th en used in the reg ressio n eq uation, perm itting
a more realistic in te rp re ta tio n of th e coefficients. Rodgers
(1970) used th is stra te g y when looking at the relationship
between migration and in d u stria l development in so u th ern
Italy. A principal component re p re se n tin g "socio-economic
health" proved to be a good p re d ic to r of out-m igration
between 1952 and 1968.
Besides the technical problem of m ulticollinearity, single
equation migration models also su ffe r from even more
im portant theoretical d efects. In p a rtic u la r, they ignore th e
possibility of two-way in teractio n betw een migration and the
explanatory v ariab les, even though it can be taken as axio
matic th a t although regional c h a ra c teristic s undoubtedly
influence migration p a tte r n s , th e re v e rse is also equally tru e .
In o th er w ords, migration is a cause of economic change as
well as a reaction to i t . Regional development th eo ry su g g e sts
that migration ten d s to in crease income differences across
reg io n s, and empirical evidence su p p o rts th is notion.
Migration also influences unemployment lev els, and
out-m igration can often w orsen ra th e r th an improve the
unemployment problem s in d ep ressed a re a s. Unemployed
perso n s take with them a certain level of ex p en d itu re when
they m igrate, th u s g en eratin g a set of m ultiplier effects th a t
fu rth e r decrease th e level of employment in the region.
260
MI GRAT I ON AND I N T R A - U R B A N MOBI LI TY
T his in te rd e p e n d e n c y betw een th e c h a ra c te ris tic s of

places an d th e flows betw een them h a s been in v e stig a te d
within th e fram ew ork of G eneral Field T h e o ry . Field th eo ry
was originally developed as a method fo r a n a ly sin g causal
relations in social p sy ch o lo g y . T he m ethodology was more
formally a rtic u la te d by Rummel (1965), who div id ed the
c h a ra c te ristic s of social u n its , su c h a s g ro u p s o r n a tio n s,
into a ttrib u te s and ty p e s of b e h a v io u r. B e rry (1966), in his
work on Indian commodity flow s, p ro v id e d a more ex p licitly
geographical p e rs p e c tiv e by exam ining th e c h a ra c te ris tic s and
flows betw een a se t of re g io n s. Within th e c o n te x t o f
m igration, Schw ind (1975) ado p ted a field th e o ry fram ew ork to
in v e stig a te in te r-re g io n a l m igration in th e U nited S ta te s . More
specifically, canonical co rrelatio n a n aly sis was em ployed to
u n rav el th e in te rd e p e n d e n c ie s betw een m igration b e h av io u r
and regional c h a ra c te ris tic s .
Canonical co rrelatio n a n aly sis in v o lv es a rtic u la tin g the
in te rre la tio n sh ip s betw een two g ro u p s o f v a ria b le s, in th is
case th e regional c h a ra c te ris tic s on th e one han d and th e
migration p a tte r n s on th e o th e r. T he two s e ts of v a ria b le s a re
tran sfo rm ed in to o rth o g o n al canonical v e c to rs , su c h th a t the
co rrelatio n s betw een c e rta in v a ria b le s o f th e two s e ts a re
maximised. T he canonical w eig h ts e x p r e s s th e d eg ree of
association betw een th e o rig in al v a ria b le s an d th e canonical
v e c to rs , while th e canonical co rrelatio n e x p re s s e s th e d e g re e
of association betw een th e two s e ts o f v a ria b le s , fo r each
canonical v e c to r. In g e n e ra l, ho w ev er, canonical co rrelatio n
would only a p p e a r to b e a u sefu l tool w here th e in v e stig a to r
has little th e o re tic a l know ledge about th e system a t h a n d , and
even in th o se situ a tio n s w here it is u se d a s a prim arily
ex p lo rato ry te c h n iq u e c e rta in problem s a re e n c o u n te re d .
F ir s t, it is often extrem ely d ifficu lt to su b sta n tiv e ly in te r p r e t
th e canonical v e c to rs , as th e im portance of th e se v e c to rs is
not determ ined b y how well th e y account fo r th e v ariatio n
w ithin th e two s e ts of v a ria b le s, b u t r a th e r how well th ey
account for th e re la tio n sh ip s b etw een th e two s e ts . Second,
the canonical w eights cannot be in te r p r e te d like re g re ssio n
coefficients, as th e y show th e d e g re e to which th e v aria b le s
and canonical v e c to rs a re re la te d , b u t not how th e y a re
re la te d .
S tru c tu ra l E quation Models

A more su itab le ap p ro ach fo r in v e s tig a tin g th e s e complex
in te rre la tio n sh ip s is available in th e form o f s tr u c tu r a l
equation m odels, w here th e term is u se d to in clude both
caused m odels, o r p a th a n a ly sis, an d sy stem s of sim ultaneous
e q u a tio n s. Such models not only sp ecify th e re la tio n sh ip s
betw een th e in d e p e n d e n t v a ria b le s an d th e ultim ate d ep en d e n t
v a ria b le , in th is case m ig ratio n , b u t also ex p licate th e
in te rre la tio n sh ip s among th e causally p r io r v a ria b le s them
261
MI GRATION AND I N T R A - U R B A N MOBI LI TY
se lv e s. In p a r tic u la r , cau sal models an d p a th an aly sis

enco u rag e th e id en tificatio n of d ire c t an d in d ire c t e ffe c ts
betw een v a ria b le s. F or exam ple, an in c re a se in th e minimum
wage ra te might d ire c tly in c re a s e th e am ount of m igration to a
re g io n , b u t at th e same time it might also in c re a se th e level
of unem ploym ent in th a t re g io n , th u s in d ire c tly d e c re a sin g
th e amount of in -m ig ra tio n . When looking a t n et m igration
ra te s in th e U pper Mid-West o f th e U nited S ta te s , C adw allader
(1985) was able to d em o n strate th a t th e d ire c t e ffe c ts o f many
v ariab les on m igration a re a t le a st p a rtia lly o ffse t b y th e
in d ire c t e ffe c ts.
When sig n ifican t feedback e ffe c ts o r recip ro cal cau satio n
a re p re s e n t in th e causal system it is a p p ro p ria te to specify
th e in te rre la tio n s h ip s in th e form of a sim ultaneous-equation
model. Greenwood (1981) u se d nine eq u atio n s and five id e n t
itie s when ex p lo rin g ra te s of in -m ig ratio n and o u t-m igration
for larg e cities in th e U nited S ta te s . B esides m easures of
m igration, th e c o n stitu e n t v a ria b le s in clu d ed income ch an g e,
m an u factu rin g employment c h a n g e , governm ent employment
ch a n g e , and unem ploym ent ch a n g e . T he v a rio u s endogenous
v ariab les w ere found to be sig n ifican tly in te rr e la te d , with
in-m ig ratio n in d u c in g g re a te r employment g ro w th . In a sim ilar
stu d y of in te r - s ta te m igration, G ober-M eyers (1978) u sed a
se t of th re e sim ultaneous e q u a tio n s. Within th is cau sal system
n et m igration, m igration b e n e fits , an d p e r capita income
grow th were e x p re s s e d a s b o th d e p e n d e n t and in d e p en d en t
v aria b le s.
Most of th e se sim u ltan eo u s-eq u atio n models have s tre s s e d
th e recip ro cal re la tio n sh ip s betw een m igration, income, and
employm ent. Using lab o u r m arket a re a s in Sw eden, D ahlberg
and Holmlund (1978) w ere able to show th a t m igration from a
region te n d s to d e c re a se income a n d em ployment grow th in th e
sen d in g re g io n , alth o u g h th e o p p o site was tr u e of
in -m ig ratio n . Sim ilarly, C adw allader (1985) c o n stru c te d a
sim ultaneous-equation model in which incom e, unem ploym ent,
and m igration acted a s th e th re e en d o g en ous v a ria b le s. The
s tru c tu ra l eq u atio n s w ere estim ated u sin g tw o -sta g e le a s t-
sq u a re s a n a ly sis, w ith a g ric u ltu ra l em ploym ent, e d u c atio n ,
and u rb a n isa tio n as ex ogenous v a ria b le s. Income and
m igration w ere recip ro cally re la te d ; high-incom e levels
a ttra c te d m ig ra n ts, b u t a s n e t m igration in c re a se d income
levels d e c re a se d .
Dynamic Models
S tru c tu ra l eq u atio n models have o ften in c o rp o ra te d ch ange
over time b y th e u se of lag g ed v a ria b le s. Tem poral change
has receiv ed more formal a tte n tio n , ho w ev er, in th e co n tex t
of Markov Chain m odels. M igration tra n sitio n p ro b ab ility
m atrices can be c o n s tru c te d to d e sc rib e th e p ro p o rtio n of
people who, d u rin g a given time p e rio d , move from one region
262
MI GRAT I ON AND I N T R A - U R B A N MOBI LI TY
to a n o th e r. A lthough Markov models a re a ttra c tiv e in th a t th e

tra n sitio n p ro b ab ilities re fle c t b o th th e re la tio n sh ip s betw een
regions an d th e sto c h a stic n a tu re o f m igration d e cisio n s, th e y
are limited b y a num ber of r a th e r re s tr ic tiv e assu m p tio n s.
F irs t, th e tra n s itio n p ro b ab ilities a re assum ed to be tem por
ally sta b le . S econd, th e population is assum ed to be homog
eneo u s, im plying th a t e v ery o n e o b ey s th e same tra n sitio n
m atrix. T h ird , th e M arkov p ro p e rty s u g g e s ts th a t th e p ro b
ability of m igrating betw een two a re a s is solely d e p e n d e n t
upon c u rre n t location, an d not u p o n p re v io u s b e h av io u r.
Recent ap p ro ach es have attem p ted to c o n s tru c t models of
change th a t relax th e assum ption of s ta tio n a ry tra n sitio n
m atrices by ex p licitly in c o rp o ra tin g h ete ro g e n e o u s p o p u lations
and ch an g in g p re fe re n c e s (H uff an d C la rk , 1978a). T he lack
of behav io u ral co n ten t in Markov models in d ic a te s th a t th e y
might be p ro fita b ly combined with th e s tr u c tu r a l equation
ap p ro ach , which ex p licitly in c o rp o ra te s a se t of e x p la n ato ry
v ariab les (R o g e rso n , 1984).
An a lte rn a tiv e ap p ro ach fo r c a p tu rin g th e dynam ics of
m igration flows is also available in th e form of v a rio u s tim e-
se rie s te c h n iq u e s. More sp ecifically , one can develop moving
average models and a u to re g re ss iv e m odels. In th e moving
averag e model th e value of an in d iv id u al v a ria b le , at a p a r
ticu la r point in tim e, is g e n e ra te d by th e w eighted av e rag e of
a finite num ber of p re v io u s an d c u rre n t random d is tu rb a n c e s ,
o r sh o ck s. By c o n tr a s t, in an a u to re g re ssiv e model th e
c u rre n t o b se rv a tio n is g e n e ra te d by a w eighted a v e ra g e of
p a st o b se rv a tio n s, to g e th e r w ith a random d istu rb a n c e in th e
c u rre n t p e rio d . Mixed a u to re g re ssiv e -m o v in g a v e rag e models
can be developed for s ta tio n a ry time s e r ie s , and c e rta in ty p e s
of n o n sta tio n a ry time se rie s can be d iffe re n ced so as to
produce a s ta tio n a ry time s e rie s , th u s allowing th e develop
ment of a g en eral in te g ra te d au to re g re ssiv e-m o v in g av erag e
model. Within th e co n tex t of m igration th is a u to re g re ssiv e
in te g ra te d moving a v e ra g e p ro c e s s , know n a s ARIMA, s u g
g e sts th a t th e amount of m igration from one time p e rio d to th e
n e x t is a complex fu n ctio n of p re v io u s m igration p lu s c u rr e n t
and p rev io u s random d is tu rb a n c e s .
The im plications of th e se tim e -se rie s models fo r m igration
have only ju s t b eg u n to b e e x p lo re d . M arkovian models of
in te rre g io n a l m igration a re e sse n tia lly a u to re g re ssiv e .
Sim ilarly, dem ographic fo recastin g models th a t sp ecify th e
d eterm in an ts of population chan g e by acco u n tin g fo r b ir th s ,
d e a th s, an d m igration (R ees an d Wilson, 1977) a re also a u to
re g re s s iv e an d assum e th e random d is tu rb a n c e term to be
negligible. Most g eo g rap h ic p ro c e sse s a re sto c h a stic r a th e r
th a n completely d e te rm in istic , h o w ev er, a s a v a rie ty of
unknown v a ria b le s , o r an exogenously g e n e ra te d random
elem ent, may affect th e d ep e n d e n t v a ria b le . C o n seq u e n tly ,
when a v ariab le like m igration is tr e a te d in dynam ic te rm s we
263
MI GRATI ON AND I N T R A - U R B A N MOBI LI TY
are looking at an u n d e rly in g sto c h a stic p ro c e ss th a t can be

tre a te d as some form of ARIMA model.
C lark (1982a) h a s in v e s tig a te d g ro ss m igration flows
u sin g ARIMA models an d su g g e s ts th a t b o th a u to re g re ssiv e
and moving a v e ra g e p ro c e sse s a re at w ork. In p a rtic u la r,
M arkovian, o r a u to re g re s s iv e m odels, a re a p p a re n tly in a p p ro
p ria te fo r many rap id ly grow ing re g io n s. Such reg io n s contain
a sizeable moving a v e ra g e com ponent, im plying th a t
in -m ig ratio n is a volatile p ro c e s s , more in fluenced b y exog
enous an d ra p id sh o ck s th a n b y p re v io u s p a tte rn s of
in -m ig ra tio n . In c o n tr a s t, a v e ra g e an d d e c e le ra tin g grow th
a re a s seem b e tte r approxim ated b y a u to re g re ssiv e models.
F u tu re e ffo rts along th e se lin es a re likely to in co rp o rate
spatial au to co rrelatio n by u sin g space-tim e au to co rrelatio n
fu n ctio n s. H ow ever, th e p rio r assignm ent of w eights re fle c t
ing th e e ffe c ts of co n tig u o u s in te rre g io n a l m igration flows
rem ains p roblem atical. T he u su a l assignm ent o f w eights
acco rd in g to d ista n c e -d e ca y p rin c ip le s might be unw ise, as
reg io n s a re not n e c e ssa rily h ig h ly in te g ra te d with th e ir
immediate n e ig h b o u rs, at le a st in th e c o n te x t of m igration
(C la rk , 1982b).
B ehavioural A p proaches
A p relim inary ste p to w ard s form ulating a more b eh aviourally
o rie n te d ap proach to m igration in v o lv es th e in v estm en t in
human capital th eo ry of m ig ratio n , w hereby a move from i to j
is assum ed to d ep en d on th e income d iffe re n tia l betw een
reg io n s i and j , d isco u n ted fo r fu tu re income in i, less the
co sts of m igrating from i to j. M igration is re g a rd e d as an
investm ent becau se th e b e n e fits can only a c c ru e o v er a perio d
of tim e, an d as th e in v estm en t is in th e in d iv id u al o r family it
re p re s e n ts an in v estm en t in human c a p ital. A c o st-b e n e fit
fram ework is u tilise d , in which both financial and n o n -fin a n -
cial fa c to rs can be in c lu d e d . For exam ple, th e co sts of
m igrating from i to j might involve "o p p o rtu n ity c o sts" ,
e x p re s s in g th e loss of w ages d u e to moving and se a rc h in g for
w ork, and "p sy ch ic c o s ts " , re p re s e n tin g th e psychological
traum a of u p ro o tin g th e ho u seh o ld . More re c e n t v e rsio n s of
th e human capital th e o ry have em phasised th e notion of
exp ected income d iffe re n tia ls (H a rris an d T o d aro , 1970), th u s
a rg u in g th a t m ig ran ts attem pt to maximise e x p e cted u tility .
Speare (1971) w a rn s, how ever, th a t alth o u g h th e co st-b en e fit
framework p ro v id e s a reaso n ab le re p re s e n ta tio n of th e fa c to rs
involved in th e m igration p ro c e s s , it should not be implied
th a t th e e x p e c te d c o sts an d b e n e fits a re actu ally calcu lated .
Many m igrants will only have a r a th e r v a g u e idea concerning
exp ected e a rn in g p o te n tia l, an d moving c o sts can o ften only
be approxim ately estim ated .
D espite i t s w id esp read u se in th e c o n tex t of lab o u r
m igration, th e human capital a p p ro ach h a s not been immune
264
MI GR AT I O N AND I N T R A - U R B A N MOBI LI TY
from criticism (B lau g , 1976). In p a r tic u la r, most em pirical

calib ratio n s of th e th e o ry h av e u s e d simple logit o r p ro b it
tran sfo rm atio n s in which th e decision to move is view ed
dichotom ously. A lso, re c e n t em pirical ev id ence s u g g e s ts th a t
only com paratively small m onetary re w a rd s a re o b tain ed from
th e investm ent in m igration (G ra n t a n d V anderkam p, 1980).
A ttem pts to ex p a n d th e th e o ry have in c lu d ed n o t only
exp ected income d iffe re n tia ls , b u t also am enity d iffe re n tia ls
and th e an tic ip a te d b e n e fits from local governm ent se rv ic e s
(C ebula, 1980). It h as o fte n b een s u g g e ste d th a t m igrants
will move to reg io n s th a t b e s t s a tisfy th e ir p re fe re n c e s fo r
public g oods, and K leiner an d McWilliams (1977) a rg u e th a t
n o n -w h ites, in p a rtic u la r, a re a ttr a c te d to s ta te s with high
levels of w elfare b e n e fits . A se a rc h th e o re tic fram ew ork can
also be u se d to s tre n g th e n human cap ital th e o r y , with due
consideration b e in g given to th e flows of job inform ation and
a sp e c ts of job com petition (P ick es and R o g erso n , 1984).
A lthough th e in v estm en t in human cap ital models of
m igration a re form ulated in term s of in d iv id u al u tility maxi
m isation, th e y a re fre q u e n tly estim ated u sin g a g g re g a te d ata
th a t re fe r to a v e ra g e income and unem ploym ent levels in th e
orig in an d d e stin a tio n re g io n s. A more ex p licitly m icro-level
approach involves th e concept of place u tility , which sum
m arises an in te n d e d m ig ra n t's a ttitu d e to w ard s a poten tial
d estin atio n (W olpert, 1965). T h u s , place u tility re p r e s e n ts th e
overall a ttra c tiv e n e s s of a p a rtic u la r p la c e , fo r a p a rtic u la r
in d iv id u al, a s ev alu ated a c ro ss a se t o f c h a ra c te ris tic s . An
in d iv id u al's place u tility m atrix c o n ta in s a ttr ib u te s a s the
rows an d places as th e colum ns, w ith th e overall u tility
associated w ith any place b e in g a w eighted sum o f th e valu es
in a column. Individual v a ria tio n s will o c c u r due to th e d if
fere n tia l w eighting of a ttr ib u te s a n d d iffe re n tia l levels of
inform ation about p la c e s. More sp ecifically , th e ra n k in g of
a ttrib u te s will re fle c t sta g e in th e life c y c le , while inform ation
levels a p p e a r to be a fu n ctio n of size a n d d ista n c e v a ria b le s
(C adw allader, 1978).
Lieber (1978) h a s a ttem p ted to u n c o v e r th e a ttr ib u te s of
places which influ en ce th e ir asso ciated u tility v a lu e s by u sin g
th e g rid -s o rtin g tech n iq u e of p e rso n a l c o n s tru c t th e o ry and
the sem antic d iffe re n tia l te c h n iq u e . T h e g r id -s o rtin g te c h
nique allows su b je c ts to d ire c tly id e n tify th e re le v a n t a ttr ib
u te s of stim uli, in th is case p la c e s, th a t a re bein g com pared.
By c o n tra s t, th e sem antic d iffe re n tia l te c h n iq u e involves
p re s e n tin g th e su b je c ts w ith a se t of stim uli w hich th e y a re
re q u ire d to ev alu ate a c ro ss a se rie s of sc ales c o n sistin g of
bipolar a d jectiv es. Some form of fa c to r a n a ly sis is th e n u se d
to u n co v er th e u n d e rly in g dim ensions, o r cognitive c ate
g o ries. U sing th e se m ethods, L ieber found th a t fo u r major
v ariab les b e s t c h a ra c te rise th e ev alu ativ e fe a tu re s of p o ten tia l
destin atio n s: proxim ity to a major c ity , proxim ity to fre s h a ir
265
M IGRATIO N AND I N T R A -U R B A N MOBILITY
rec re atio n a l o p p o rtu n itie s , proxim ity to close re la tiv e s , and

g en eral economic co n d itio n s.
Metal Maps an d M igration

A grow ing num ber of r e s e a rc h e rs have b eg u n to ex p lo re w ays
of u sin g th e su b jectiv e evalu atio n of a lte rn a tiv e s a s a th e o r
etical fram ew ork fo r c o n s tru c tin g m igration models. Much of
th e work in th is a re a was o rig in ally in s p ire d by G ould's
(Gould an d White, 1974) p io n e e rin g in v e stig a tio n s of m ental
m aps, in which he ex p lo re d th e p e rc e iv e d re sid e n tia l d e s ir
ability of d iffe re n t reg io n s w ithin th e U nited S ta te s and
B ritain . Isolines w ere u se d to co nnect p o in ts of eq u al v a lu e ,
th u s c re a tin g a p re fe re n c e su rfa c e th a t re flec ted th e hills and
valleys of d e sira b ility fo r a p a rtic u la r g ro u p of people. Since
th e n e ffo rts have b een made to m easure th e d eg re e of asso ci
ation betw een th e se m ental maps an d m igration flows.
Lloyd (1976) a rg u e d th a t alth o u g h it has been su g g e ste d
for some time th a t sp a tia l b eh a v io u r is at le a st p a rtly a
function of an in d iv id u a l's co gnitions of h is o r h e r a lte r n
a tiv e s, no attem pt h a s been made to ex p licitly exam ine th e
lin k ag es among co g n itio n , p re fe re n c e , an d b e h a v io u r. With
th is th o u g h t in m ind, he id e n tifie d th re e a b s tra c t sp a c e s th a t
could be u sed to an aly se in te r - s ta te m igration flow s. F ir s t, an
n-dim ensional cognitive space co ntained inform ation co n c ern in g
th e cognised c h a ra c te ris tic s of p la c e s. T he a x es re p re s e n t th e
u n d e rly in g cognitive s tr u c tu r e of th e a ttr ib u te s associated
with th o se p la c e s, and so th e co g n ised c h a ra c te ris tic s of any
p a rtic u la r place a re d efin ed b y its location w ithin th a t sp a ce .
Second, an n-dim ensional p re fe re n c e space contained axes
which re p re s e n t th e u n d e rly in g p re fe re n c e s tr u c tu r e , and
define th e d eg re e to which a p a rtic u la r place is p r e f e r r e d .
T h ird , an n-dim ensional b eh a v io u r sp a c e , su c h as th a t asso c i
ated w ith in te r - s ta te m igration, involved ax es th a t re p re s e n t
th e u n d e rly in g s tr u c tu r e o f a c tu a l b e h a v io u r.
Within th is co n ceptual fram ew ork, d a ta w ere g a th e re d
from sam ples of u n iv e rsity s tu d e n ts . T he g rid re p e rto ry te s t
was u se d to collect th e cog n itiv e info rm atio n, and m ultidimen
sional scalin g was u se d to id e n tify th e u n d e rly in g dim ensions
o f th e cognitive sp a c e s. Sim ilarly, G ould's ra n k -o rd e rin g
tech n iq u e was u tilise d to collect th e p re fe re n c e d a ta , w ith
m ultidimensional scalin g again determ in in g th e s tr u c tu r e o f th e
p re fe re n c e sp a c e s. F inally, th e b eh a v io u r space was g e n e r
ated u sin g a 48 b y 48 o rig in -d e stin a tio n m atrix , and s u b
jectin g it to th e rev ealed p re fe re n c e p ro c e d u re s u sed by
R ushton (1981). A s e rie s of canonical co rre latio n an aly se s
su g g e ste d s tro n g lin k a g e s betw een co g n itio n s, p re fe re n c e s ,
and actu al b e h a v io u r. Lloyd e n d ed b y n o tin g , how ever, th a t
d esp ite th e se en co u ra g in g r e s u lts , c o n sid erab ly more w ork
was needed in term s of form ally ex p licatin g th e re la tio n sh ip s
betw een th e cognitive c o n s tru c ts and a ctu al b e h a v io u r, and
266
M IGR ATIO N AND IN T R A - U R B A N MO BILITY
also in term s of id e n tify in g how th e co g n itive inform ation is

tra n s la te d in to o v erall p re fe re n c e s fo r p a rtic u la r d e stin a tio n s,
which a re th e n tra n s la te d into o v e rt b e h a v io u r.
U sing tw e n ty -fiv e K entucky c itie s , White (1974) also
focused on th e rela tio n sh ip betw een p re fe re n c e s an d o v e rt
b eh av io u r. He p ro v id ed ev idence to su p p o rt th e h y p o th e sis
th a t th e in -m ig ratio n to a p a rtic u la r c ity is re la te d to th e
p re fe re n ce value a ttr ib u te d to th a t c ity by a sample of p o te n
tial m ig ran ts. In d eed , th e co rrelatio n betw een re sid e n tia l
p re fe re n ce and in -m ig ratio n in d ic a te d th a t almost h alf th e
v ariatio n in m igration b eh a v io u r can be a cc o u n ted fo r by
p re fe re n c e s . In a la te r p a p e r , ho w ev er, u sin g th e same data
s e t, White (1978) cautioned th a t models lin k in g a g g re g a te d
p re fe re n ce maps with a g g re g a te d b e h a v io u r a re lim ited by the
fact th a t p re fe re n c e p a tte r n s v a ry a c ro ss d iffe re n t socio
economic g ro u p s . T his problem is com pounded by th e fact
th a t socio-economic g ro u p s v a ry in term s o f th e ir p ro p e n sity
to m igrate. White concluded by su g g e s tin g th a t th e p re fe re n c e
of p o ten tial m igran ts might be u sefully d isa g g re g a te d on th e
b asis of accessib ility to a lte rn a tiv e d e stin a tio n s,
socio-economic s ta tu s , and aw aren ess lev els for a lte rn a tiv e
locations.
In a n o th e r s tu d y , u sin g a d ata se t in v o lv in g m etropolitan
are a s th ro u g h o u t th e U nited S ta te s , White (1980) showed th a t
out-m ig ratio n from T o p ek a, K ansas to a selection o f o th e r
cities was more closely re la te d to aw aren ess and p re fe re n c e
indices th a n to su ch tra d itio n a l v a ria b le s a s size, d ista n c e ,
economic, an d dem ographic c h a ra c te ris tic s . In f u r th e r
analy ses of th e same d ata s e t, White (1981) ex p lo red th e
communality an d co n ten t of re sid e n tia l p re fe re n c e s . F irs t,
th e re seemed to be su b s ta n tia l common agreem ent among the
more th a n one th o u sa n d people in six d iffe re n t cities who
ind icated th e ir p re fe re n c e s fo r tw e n ty -six m etropolitan a re a s .
Second, re sid e n tia l p re fe re n c e s w ere more s tro n g ly re la te d to
th e p erceiv ed c h a ra c te ris tic s of c itie s th a n to e ith e r th e ir
objective o r inform ational c h a ra c te ris tic s .
In a sim ilar v e in , «¡ones a n d Z an n aras (1976) in v e stig a te d
the v ariatio n in y o u n g a d u lt in -m ig ratio n ra te s fo r th irty
Venezuelan c itie s. A m ultivariate re g re s s io n model, involving
trad itio n al economic o p p o rtu n ity and q u a lity -o f-life v a ria b le s,
accounted fo r 65% of th e v ariatio n in m igration b e h a v io u r, b u t
a second model, in c o rp o ra tin g m easures of p e rc e iv e d economic
o p p o rtu n ity an d p e rc e iv e d q u a lity -o f-life , im proved th e level
of explanation to 83%. T he a u th o rs noted th a t th e im ages held
by y o u th s will not n e c e ssa rily re fle c t th o se o f th e whole
population, b u t point out th a t y o u th s te n d to form th e most
highly mobile segm ent of th e p o p u latio n , and a re th e re fo re
the most im portant so u rce of p o ten tial m ig ran ts.
Jones (1978) e x te n d e d th is w ork in h is d iscu ssio n of
so-called V enezuelan m yth m aps. In p a r tic u la r, he was able to
show th a t th e se myth m aps, c o n s tru c te d on th e b a sis of
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M IGRATION AND I N T R A -U R B A N MOBILITY
p erc e iv e d economic o p p o rtu n itie s an d q u a lity -o f-life c h a ra c te r

is tic s , could be a ttr ib u te d to im ages p ro je c te d by th e national
n ew sp a p e rs, which te n d to p o p u la rise th e regional develop
ment e lto r ts of th e pub lic s e c to r. Also w ithin th e co n te x t of
V enezuela, th e same a u th o r (J o n e s , 1980) h as since attem pted
to a rtic u la te th e role of co gnitive v a ria b le s in m igration
th ro u g h th e co n stru c tio n of a p a th model, th u s iso latin g the
d ire c t and in d ire c t e ffe c ts of d iffe re n t v a ria b le s.
F inally, Todd (1982) also u se d p a th a n a ly sis to explore
th e role of su b je c tiv e a ttr ib u te s in ex p lain in g sm all-tow n
population change in M anitoba. Given th e d iv e rg e n ce betw een
objective an d su b jectiv e c o rre la te s -o f-p la c e , he su g g e ste d th a t
both k in d s of v a ria b le s could be p ro fita b ly included in
reg re ssio n models. T h is su g g e stio n was s u p p o rte d by th e fact
th a t, in exam ining sm all-tow n sta b ility as evidenced by p o pul
ation c h a n g e , he was able to show th a t th e objective and
su b jectiv e v a ria b le s can have in d e p e n d e n t associations with
in - o r o u t-m ig ratio n once th e problem of m ulticollinerity has
been id e n tifie d .
P referen ces
A lthough th e ex plication of th e lin k s betw een p re fe re n c e s and
o v ert b eh av io u r has been of th e utm ost im portance, it has
been equally im portant to explain th e p re fe re n c e s them selves.
In o th e r w o rd s, can we explain why c e rta in in d iv id u a ls p re f e r
ce rta in locations? The an sw er to th is q u e stio n in v olves try in g
to e sta b lish how in d iv id u a ls in te g ra te v a rio u s p ieces of in fo r
mation into some kind of overall u tility v alue th a t th e y can
th en u se to ran k a lte rn a tiv e s . Within th e m igration lite ra tu re
th e re have been th re e major ap p ro a c h e s to th is problem . The
rev ealed p re fe re n c e ap p ro ach inv o lv es th e exam ination of
o b se rv e d b eh av io u r in o rd e r to u n c o v e r th e u n d erly in g
p re fe re n c e s tr u c tu r e , and so e s ta b lish ru le s of b e h a v io u r.
For exam ple, Schw ind (1971) in d u c tiv e ly d e riv e d th e sp atial
p re fe re n c e s of m igrants fo r reg io n s b y an aly sin g actual
m igration flows betw een S tate Economic A reas in Maine. Simi
la rly , T obler (1979) com puted th e re la tiv e a ttra c tiv e n e s s of
sta te s from d ata on in te r - s ta te m igration. It h a s been pointed
o u t, h ow ever, th a t only p u re ly d isc re tio n a ry b e h a v io u r should
be an aly sed in term s of rev e a le d p re fe re n c e s . In those
in sta n c e s w here th e choice is c o n stra in e d in some w ay, th e re
will be a confounding of p re fe re n c e s and c o n s tra in ts .
Since th e rev ealed p re fe re n c e a p p ro ach only allows one
to ded u ce a p re fe re n tia l o rd e rin g fo r th e ra n g e o f sp atial
a lte rn a tiv e s th a t a re available in a p a rtic u la r s tu d y a re a ,
some re s e a rc h e rs have attem p ted to develop experim ental
d esig n s w hereby u ttrib u te v a lu e s can be m anipulated to
p ro d u ce a v u rie ty of a b s tra c t com binations, th u s c re a tin g a
set of h ypothetical a lte rn a tiv e s th a t is in d e p e n d e n t of any
p a rtic u la r spatial s tr u c tu r e . One of th e p o ten tially most usefu l
268
MIGRATIO N AND IN T R A - U R B A N MO BILITY
ap p ro ach es, w ithin th is c o n te x t, is th e conjoint m easurem ent

model. The conjoint m easurem ent te c h n iq u e p ro v id e s & method
for d efin in g a u tility valu e fo r each a lte rn a tiv e a s a joint
effect of i t s c o n stitu e n t a ttr ib u te s . T he co efficien ts asso ciated
with th o se a ttr ib u te s in d ic a te th e ir in d iv id u al c o n trib u tio n s to
th e overall u tility v alu e.
L ieber (1979) h as su c c e ssfu lly u se d th e conjoint
m easurem ent p ro c e d u re w ithin a m igration co n te x t by a sk in g
su b je c ts to ev alu ate b o th h y p o th e tic a l an d re a l d e stin a tio n s
acco rd in g to th re e p re d e te rm in ed a ttr ib u te s . T he th re e a t t r i
b u te s were tra v e l time to a major c ity , tra v e l time to a fre sh
air re c re atio n a l o p p o rtu n ity , an d tra v e l time to close rela
tiv e s . T he f ir s t two a ttr ib u te s w ere sp lit in to fo u r le v e ls,
with th e th ir d a ttr ib u te b ein g sp lit in to two le v e ls. As a
re s u lt, th e experim ental d e sig n co n sisted of th irty -tw o t r e a t
ment com binations, and L ieber concluded th a t a m ultiplying,
o r n o n lin ear, model may be more a p p ro p ria te fo r d e sc rib in g
the p re fe re n c e ju d g em en ts th a n a lin e a r o ne.
T he main a d v a n ta g e of th e conjoint m easurem ent model
over th e revealed p re fe re n c e ap p ro ach is th a t s u b je c ts are
directly e v a lu a tin g th e a ttr ib u te s assum ed to u n d e rlie d e s tin
ation p re fe re n c e s , r a th e r th a n simply th e a lte rn a tiv e s them
selv es. It is in th is re sp e c t th a t th e d e riv e d ru le s of sp atial
choice a re co n sid ered to be in d e p e n d e n t of th e p a rtic u la r
o p p o rtu n ity se t b ein g c o n sid e re d . One o f th e major d isa d
v an ta g e s of th e te c h n iq u e , h ow ever, is th a t th e experim ental
levels asso ciated w ith each of th e a ttr ib u te s have to be p r e
determ ined by th e e x p e rim e n te r, an d th e se levels will not
n ecessarily coincide with th e in te rn a lis e d th re s h o ld s fo r th e se
a ttrib u te s held by th e su b je c ts th em selv es.
A th ir d ty p e of m ethodolgy u se d to p ro b e th e in d iv id u al
decision-m aking p ro c e ss in v o lv es m ultidim ensional scaling
te c h n iq u e s. Such te c h n iq u e s can help to id e n tify th e cognitive
a ttr ib u te s , o r dim ensions, th a t in d iv id u a ls u se to d iffe re n tia te
betw een a lte rn a tiv e choices. Demko (1974) so u g h t to unco v er
su b je c ts' im ages of a selected g ro u p of citie s in S o u th e rn
O ntario which w ere tre a te d as p o te n tia l m igration d e stin a tio n s.
The g e n e ra te d sim ilarities d a ta w ere su b je cte d to m ultidim en
sional scaling a n a ly sis, in o rd e r to o b tain a se t of d e riv e d
cognitive sp a c e s. Sim ilarly, Lueck (1976) u se d m ultidim en
sional scaling an aly sis to in v e stig a te th e cognition o f nine
cities in th e U nited S ta te s . He concluded th a t a th re e -d im e n
sional solution was able to ad eq u ately account fo r th e v a ri
ation in th e o rig in al dissim ilarities d a ta . He d e sc rib e d th e se
th re e dim ensions as re p re s e n tin g an "excitem ent" sc a le , a
"cleanliness and sa fe ty " scale, and a "social milieu" scale.
As with rev ealed p re fe re n c e s and conjoint m easurem ent,
how ever, th e u se of m ultidim ensional scaling h a s not been
immune from criticism , especially w ith re s p e c t to w h eth e r it
p ro v id es a u se fu l model of th e psychological p ro c e sse s
involved in d ecision-m aking. A sig n ific a n t w eakness is th e
269
MIGRATIO N AND I N T R A -U R B A N MO BILITY
fact th a t th e co gnitive dim ensions h av e to be in te rp re te d in

an a p o ste rio ri fashion b y th e r e s e a r c h e r, unlike conjoint
measurem ent w here th e sig n ific a n t a ttr ib u te s are sp ecified in
ad v an ce. A lso, th e a x es p ro v id e d b y m ultidim ensional scaling
are con tin u o u s in n a tu r e , w hereas it is q u ite likely th a t
in d iv id u als make decisions on th e b a sis of c e rta in th re sh o ld
v a lu e s, r a th e r th a n on th e b a sis of co ntinuous re fe r e n ts
(Harman an d B etak , 1976).
F u tu re w ork on in te r-re g io n a l m igration is likely to
p u rs u e a s y n th e s is betw een th e macro an d m icro-approaches
(Woods, 1982). In o th e r w o rd s, th e se two lin es of in q u iry
should be re g a rd e d as b ein g com plem entary r a th e r th a n
com petitive (G olledge, 1980). T h re e o th e r is s u e s a re also
likely to be prom inent in fu tu re w ork. F ir s t, tem poral
chan g es in m igration p a tte r n s will be ex p lo red more explicitly
th ro u g h th e co n stru c tio n of models in v o lv in g lagged v aria b les
and time se rie s a n a ly sis. S econd, m igration models will be
r e s tr u c tu r e d to in c o rp o ra te a v a rie ty of in d iv id u al and
in stitu tio n a l level c o n s tra in ts (L ew is, 1982). It is th e se
in stitu tio n a l fa c to rs , in any given m igration c o n te x t, th a t a re
th e most am enable to governm ental c o n tro l, and th e re fo re th e
most policy re le v a n t (Flow erdew , 1982). T h ird , m igration
re se a rc h will become in c re a sin g ly se n sitiv e to th e co nse
q u e n c e s, a s well as th e c a u s e s , of m igration (White and
Woods, 1980).
INTRA-URBAN MOBILITY
A v a st an d grow ing body of lite r a tu r e is d ev oted to d e s

c rib in g and ex p lain in g re sid e n tia l movement w ithin u rb a n
a re a s . Almost h alf of th e U nited S ta te s population made at
least one re sid e n tia l move d u rin g th e fiv e -y e a r perio d from
1970 to 1975, an d 45 p e rc e n t of th o se moves re p re s e n te d
chan g es of re sid e n c e w ithin th e same m etropolitan a re a
(Q uigley an d W einberg, 1977). In G reat B ritain th e fig u re s
are somewhat le s s , b u t still co n sid erab le (S h o rt, 1978). Such
high mobility ra te s a re a major fa c to r in sh ap in g th e socio
economic s tr u c tu r e of u rb a n n e ig h b o u rh o o d s, and a re o ften
associated with th e d e te rio ra tio n an d decline of p a rtic u la r
reg io n s w ithin c itie s.
Mobility R ates and Flows

In v e stig a tio n s of th e sp atial p a tte r n of population tu rn o v e r
within cities in d icate th a t mobility r a te s a re much h ig h e r in
th e c e n tre of th e c ity th a n at th e p e r ip h e ry . For exam ple,
C adw allader (1982) fitte d lin e a r, p o w er, and ex p o n en tial
fu n ctio n s to c e n su s tr a c t d a ta fo r P o rtla n d , O reg o n , and
found th a t mobility ra te s d e c re a sed w ith in c re a sin g d istan c e
from th e c e n tra l b u s in e s s d is tr ic t. F u r th e r ex p lo ratio n o f th e
270
M I G R A T IO N AND I N T R A - U R B A N M O B IL IT Y
p a tte r n w as a c h ie v e d th r o u g h th e u s e o f tr e n d s u rfa c e a n a ly
s is . For all th r e e time p e rio d s a n a ly s e d , th e b e s t fit was
p ro v id e d b y th e c u b ic s u r f a c e , w ith b e tw ee n 21 a n d 57 p e r
cen t o f th e v a ria tio n in m obility r a te s b e in g a c c o u n te d fo r. Of
g r e a te r i n t e r e s t , h o w e v e r, w as th e c h a n g e o v e r tim e, w hich
su g g e s te d th a t th e s u r f a c e s w ere becom ing in c re a sin g ly
complex a n d c o n v o lu te d .
In a d d itio n to id e n tify in g th e s p a tia l p a tte r n o f m obility
r a te s , a tte m p ts h av e also b e e n made to e s ta b lis h th e i n t e r
re la tio n s h ip s b etw een m obility r a te s a n d o th e r f e a tu r e s of th e
u rb a n e n v iro n m e n t, s u c h a s socio-econom ic, d e m o g ra p h ic , a n d
h o u sin g c h a r a c te r is tic s . U sin g a re a l d a ta fo r B ris b a n e ,
A u s tra lia , Moore (1969) d e v e lo p e d a c a u sa l model in v o lv in g
v a ria b le s like d is ta n c e from th e c e n tra l b u s in e s s d is tr ic t,
p e rc e n ta g e o f dw ellin g s o w n e r-o c c u p ie d , a n d p e rc e n ta g e o f
A u stra lia n b o r n . D esp ite th e s a tis fa c to ry em p irical f it, how
e v e r , th e model was d is a p p o in tin g in th a t th e e x p la n a to ry
v a ria b le s w ere se le c te d in an ad hoc fa s h io n , r a t h e r th a n on
th e b a s is of some u n d e rly in g th e o re tic a l fram ew o rk . More
re c e n t w ork in th is lin e , h a s u tilis e d th e c o n c e p ts o f h o u sin g
space a n d social sp ace (C a d w a lla d e r, 1981), w ith th e r e s u lts
of a s e rie s of p a th a n a ly s e s em p h a sisin g th e im p o rta n t ro le of
h o u sin g ty p e v a r ia b le s . S u ch c a u sa l sy ste m s can also be
c o n v e n ie n tly m odelled u s in g a sim u ltan eo u s e q u a tio n s a p p ro a c h
(C ad w allad er, 1982). S u ch an a p p ro a c h e x p lic itly re c o g n ise s
th a t m obility r a te s a re a c a u se o f , a s well a s a c o n se q u e n c e
o f, n e ig h b o u rh o o d c h a r a c te r is tic s .
D e sc rip tio n s of i n t r a - u r b a n flow s, r a t h e r th a n ju s t
tu r n o v e r r a t e s , h a v e fo c u se d on th e b ia se s a sso c ia te d w ith
d ista n c e a n d d ire c tio n . As w ith in te r - r e g io n a l m ig ra tio n , th e r e
is a p re p o n d e re n c e o f s h o r t- d is ta n c e m oves. In d e e d , fo r th e
city of S e a ttle , it h a s b e e n e stim a te d th a t th e a v e ra g e le n g th
of an in tr a - u r b a n move is le s s th a n th r e e miles (B o y c e,
1969). T h e e v id e n c e c o n c e rn in g d ire c tio n a l b ia se s is more
am big u o u s, h o w e v e r, a lth o u g h it h a s b e en s u g g e s te d th a t
c e n tr a l- a r e a m oves a re random ly o r ie n te d , w hile moves w ithin
th e s u b u r b s te n d to e x h ib it a se c to ra l b ia s (C la rk , 1971).
S u ch an a s s e rtio n can b e re la te d to th e n o tio n th a t re s id e n ts
o fte n p o s s e s s u r b a n im ages th a t a re s e c to ra l r a t h e r th a n
zo n al, a n d th a t th e u n d e r ly in g socio-econom ic s t r u c t u r e of
c itie s h a s an im p o rta n t s e c to ra l co m p o n ent. It is ex c e e d in g ly
d iffic u lt to g e n e ra lis e a c ro s s d if f e r e n t c itie s , h o w e v e r, a s th e
d ire c tio n of moves will b e a s s e n s itiv e to th e id io s y n c ra tic
location o f new h o u sin g develo p m en t in a p a r tic u la r c ity as it
is to th e o v e ra ll sp a tia l p a t te r n of c itie s in g e n e ra l.
T he most s ig n ific a n t r e g u la r ity in te rm s of m ig ratio n
flow s, h o w e v e r, is th a t most h o u se h o ld s move b etw een a re a s
of sim ilar socio-econom ic s t a t u s . A lp e ro v ic h (1983) c o n s tru c te d
a m ultiple re g r e s s io n model to a s s e s s th e in flu e n c e o f s e v e ra l
v a ria b le s on m igration w ith in th e Isra e li c ity of T el A v iv -
Yafo. T h e e stim a te d c o e ffic ie n ts s u g g e s te d th e im p o rta n ce o f
271
MIGRATION AND IN T R A -U R B A N M O BILITY
such o rig in and d e stin a tio n c h a ra c te ris tic s as a g e , e d u c atio n ,

and h o u sin g q u a lity . B esides re g re s sio n a n a ly se s, e n tro p y -
maximising models also a p p e a r to have some p o te n tial in term s
of p re d ic tin g m igration flows. U sing d a ta fo r A m sterdam ,
C lark an d A very (1978) concluded th a t an entropy-m axim ising
model p ro v id e s an a d e q u a te re p re s e n ta tio n of th e basic s tr u c
tu r e of population flow s, especially given th e d ifficu lties of
finding an a d eq u ate cost fu n ctio n fo r movements betw een small
a re a s of a c ity .
The Decision to Move

Unlike th e a g g re g a te ap p ro a c h e s d e sc rib e d above, b ehavioural
models of re sid e n tia l relocation focus on th e in d iv id u al
d ecisio n -m ak er. T ra d itio n a lly , th e d ecision-m aking p ro c e ss has
been conceptually p a rtitio n e d in to th re e s ta g e s ; th e decision
to move, th e se a rc h fo r available a lte rn a tiv e s , an d th e e v a lu
ation of th o se a lte rn a tiv e s (B row n and Moore, 1971). A lthough
th is com partm entalisation obviously re p r e s e n ts an oversim plifi
catio n , it h as allowed re s e a rc h e rs to focus th e ir a tte n tio n on
d iffe re n t p a r ts of th e overall p ro c e ss . S tu d ie s of th e initial
decision to seek a new re sid e n c e have em phasised th e im port
ance of p re v io u s mobility b e h a v io u r. Of p a rtic u la r in te re s t in
th is co n tex t is th e d u ra tio n -o f-re s id e n c e effect (C lark and
H uff, 1977), which s u g g e s ts th a t th e lo n g e r a household
rem ains in a p a rtic u la r location th e le ss likely it is to move.
A la rg e num ber of movement decisions re s u lt from
families a d ju stin g th e ir h o u sin g to meet th e dem ands for space
g e n e ra te d b y ch a n g in g family com position. A re c e n t typology
of reaso n s for moving e x p lic a te s th is re latio n sh ip betw een
chan g es in family life cycle a n d re sid e n tia l m obility, and
s tre s s e s th e role of h o u sin g sp ace an d te n u re ch an g e (C la rk
and O naka, 1983). Within th e fram ew ork of p a th a n a ly sis,
Pickvance (1974) h as d e m o n strated th a t life-cy cle an d te n u re
s ta tu s play a cru cial role in d eterm in in g both d e s ire d and
exp ected m obility. P ath a n a ly sis h as also been u tilised to
in v e stig a te th e re la tio n sh ip s b etw een re sid e n tia l sa tisfa c tio n ,
d e sire to move, an d a ctu al mobility b e h a v io u r. S p eare (1974)
c o n stru c te d an in d ex of re sid e n tia l sa tisfa c tio n b ased on
housing an d n eighbourhood c h a ra c te ris tic s and found it to be
a u sefu l in d ic a to r of s u b se q u e n t b e h a v io u r. Sim ilarly,
Hourihan (1984) developed a p a th model to ex p lo re how p e r
sonal c h a ra c te ris tic s a re causally a n te c e d e n t to th e p erc e p tio n
of neig h b o u rh o o d a ttr ib u te s in d eterm in in g lev els o f n e ig h
bourhood sa tisfa c tio n .
An a lte rn a tiv e a p p ro ach to p re d ic tin g th e p ro p e n sity to
move of in d iv id u al househ o ld s h as rev o lv ed aro u n d th e con
cep t of re sid e n tia l s tr e s s (Brum m ell, 1981). S tre s s o c c u rs
becau se of th e d ifferen ce betw een a h o u se h o ld 's p re s e n t level
of satisfactio n an d th e level of sa tisfa c tio n it believ es can be
atta in e d elsew h ere. T he amount o f s t r e s s , o r th e m agnitude of
272
M IG R A T IO N AND I N T R A - U R B A N MOBILITY
th is d iffe re n c e, can be m easured a c ro ss a se t o f s tr e s s o r s ,

such as k in d of people liv in g in th e n eig h b o u rh o o d and th e
proxim ity to w ork. C lark and C adw allader (1973) found a
reasonably h ig h c o rre la tio n betw een re s id e n tia l s tr e s s and
d esire to move fo r a g ro u p of s u b je c ts located in S anta
Monica, C alifornia. Of th e five s tr e s s o r s u se d in th e s tu d y ,
size and facilities of th e dw elling u n it a p p eared to be th e
most im p o rta n t, while d ista n c e from w ork was th e least
im p o rtan t.
Such models can also in c o rp o ra te th e d u ra tio n -o f-re s i-
dence effect b y p o stu la tin g a tra d e - o f f betw een d issa tisfa ctio n
and in e rtia (H uff an d C la rk , 1978b). T he level o f s t r e s s , o r
d issa tisfa c tio n , is assum ed to in c re a se o v e r tim e, as th e
household falls o u t of adju stm en t with its p re s e n t situ a tio n .
Sim ilarly, how ever, with in c re a sin g d u ra tio n o f sta y th e
re sista n c e to m oving, o r in e r tia , is also e x p e c te d to in c re a se
o ver time. T h u s th e p ro b a b ility of moving r e p re s e n ts a tr a d e
off betw een s tr e s s and in e rtia , w here b o th com ponents can be
e x p re sse d as ex p o n en tial fu n ctio n s o f ch an g e o v e r time.
D espite th e an aly tical appeal of su c h a co n cep tu alisatio n ,
how ever, th e b lack -b o x n a tu re of th e s tr e s s a n d in e rtia
functio n s in d icate th a t th e model is b e s t s u ite d to a p re d ic tiv e
ra th e r th an e x p la n a to ry role (C la rk , H uff and B u r t, 1979). A
more re c e n t attem p t to f u r th e r re fin e th e s tr e s s - in e r tia , o r
s tr e s s -re s is ta n c e model h as su g g e s te d th a t h o useholds might
be as se n sitiv e to th e d irectio n and ra te o f ch an g e of s tr e s s
as th e y a re to its ab so lu te level at any specific tim e. U sing
data from th e Canadian c ity of S ask ato o n , P hipps and C a rte r
(1984) w ere able to show th a t in te n tio n to move was g re a te s t
for those households ex p e rie n c in g re la tiv e ly high levels o f
s tr e s s th a t had in c re a se d o v e r th e p a s t two y e a rs . The
e ffe c ts of re sista n c e on mobility w ere also s tr o n g , although
somewhat more com plex.
R esidential Search
Once a household d ecides to move it m ust b eg in to se a rc h fo r
a lte rn a tiv e accommodation. T h e re a re th re e in te rre la te d
q uestio n s th a t a re pivotal to an y u n d e rs ta n d in g o f th e r e s i
dential se a rc h p ro c e s s . F ir s t, w hat a re th e inform ation
sou rces u se d to find a p p ro p ria te h ousing? S econd, how long
is th e se a rc h activ ity ? T h ird , is th e r e an y p a rtic u la r sp a tial
p a tte rn associated w ith th e se a rc h a c tiv ity ? T he most
im portant so u rces of inform ation fo r p ro sp e c tiv e m overs a re
new spaper a d v e rtise m e n ts, p e rso n a l c o n ta c ts , p erso n a l
observation of "fo r sale" s ig n s , and rea l e s ta te a g e n ts .
D ifferent so u rces of inform ation a p p e a r to be u sed according
to th e ty p e of dw elling u n it th a t is d e s ire d . N ew spaper
adv ertisem en ts a re often u sed when looking fo r an a p a rtm e n t,
while real e s ta te a g e n ts a re an effe c tiv e so u rce fo r house
h u n te r s , especially in th e c o n te x t o f o u t-o f-to w n b u y e rs
273
MIGRATIO N AND I N T R A -U R B A N M O B IL IT Y
(C lark and Sm ith, 1982). A nalyses of th e seq u e n tial s tr u c tu r e

of inform ation collection s u g g e s t th a t th e p relim inary s ta g e s o f
se a rc h a re c h a ra c te ris e d b y a g r e a te r d e p e n d en cy on new s
p a p e r a d v e rtise m e n ts, while in th e la te r sta g e s hom ebuyers
become in c re a sin g ly re lia n t on re a l e s ta te a g e n ts (C la rk and
Sm ith, 1979).
The len g th of time sp e n t se a rc h in g d e p en d s on th e
deg ree of satisfactio n asso ciated w ith p r e s e n t a lte rn a tiv e s ,
combined w ith th e time an d money c o sts th a t would be
in c u rre d b y f u r th e r s e a rc h . In th is c o n te x t, a v a rie ty o f
p ro b a b ility models have b een c o n stru c te d to dev ise optimal
"sto p p in g ru le s" for h o u sin g s e a rc h a c tiv ity (P h ip p s and
L av e rty , 1983). Most s e a rc h th e o rie s te n d to in c o rp o ra te the
idea of a critic a l u tility v alue w hich d iffe re n tia te s accep tab le
and u n accep tab le a lte r n a tiv e s , b u t th is th re sh o ld value will
change d u rin g th e c o u rse of s e a rc h in g , d ue to le a rn in g and
p re fe re n c e adju stm en t (Sm ith e t a l . , 1979). P erso n ality
facto rs a re also likely to be in v o lv e d , w ith co n se rv a tiv e
households b ein g p re p a re d to follow a sa tisfy in g r a th e r th an
optim ising s tr a te g y . E ffo rts to lin k th e " sto p p in g ru le" models
with th e inform ation acq u isitio n ap p ro ach have focused on the
relatio n sh ip betw een th e c o sts of inform ation d e riv e d from
d iffe re n t so u rc e s an d th e le n g th of s e a rc h (Sm ith an d C la rk ,
1980).
Most em pirical w ork s u g g e s ts th a t th e sp atial p a tte r n of
se a rc h is rem arkably c o n stra in e d . U sing d a ta from T o ro n to ,
B a rre tt (1976) found th a t more th a n 92% of h is sample
re s tric te d them selves to a v e ra g e se a rc h d ista n c e s o f le ss th an
th re e miles. A lthough th e sp atial a s p e c ts of se a rc h have
generally receiv ed le ss a tte n tio n th a n th e issu e s involving
inform ation so u rc e s an d le n g th of s e a rc h , th e re a re two
notable e x p e c tio n s. F ir s t, S ch n eid er (1975) has developed a
sp atial se a rc h model th a t is especially a p p ro p ria te fo r sea rc h
involving inform ation collected b y d riv in g a ro u n d o r w alking
aro u n d an a re a . Second, H uff (1982) h a s c o n stru c te d a model
in which th e se a rc h p ro c e d u re is d e sc rib e d as a tw o -step
p ro cess c o n sistin g of th e in itia l selection of an a re a in which
se a rc h is to be c o n c e n tra te d , followed b y th e a c tu a l selection
of vacancies w ithin th a t ta rg e te d a re a . The p ro b a b ility of
sea rc h in g w ithin a p a rtic u la r a re a d e p e n d s upon th e location
of th e la st vacan cy seen b y th e household and th e re la tiv e
co n cen tratio n of p o ssib le accep tab le v acan cies.
N eighbourhood Evaluation
T he th ir d p a r t o? th e re sid e n tia l d ecision-m aking p ro c e s s ,
neighbourhood ev aluation an d choice, h a s two major com
p o n e n ts. F ir s t, w hat a re th e ev alu a tiv e dim ensions th a t
households u se to d istin g u ish betw een a lte rn a tiv e n e ig h
bourhoods? S econd, how is inform ation on th o se ev alu a tiv e
dim ensions u se d to reach some k in d of a decision? E arly work
274
M IGR ATIO N AND I N T R A -U R B A N M O B IL IT Y
on th e f irs t of th e se two q u e stio n s te n d e d to focus on th e

sem antic d iffe re n tia l te c h n iq u e , w hereby su b je c ts w ere ask ed
to ev aluate a se t of n eig h b o u rh o o d s a c ro s s a s e rie s of scales
c o n sistin g of b i-p o la r a d je c tiv e s. P rin cip al com ponents
analy sis is th e n u se d to u n co v er th e u n d e rly in g dim ensions.
In a stu d y b ased on d a ta collected in C h ris tc h u rc h , New
Zealand, Jo h n sto n (1973) id e n tifie d th r e e major cognitive
ca teg o ries fo r e v a lu a tin g n e ig h b o u rh o o d s; th e p h y sica l a t t r i
b u te s , th e social a ttr ib u te s , an d th e locational a ttr ib u te s .
Similar dim ensions w ere found b y C adw allader (1979),
although th e ex act n a tu re of th o se dim ensions v a rie d a c ro ss
d ifferen t k in d s of n eig h b o u rh o o d s.
An a lte rn a tiv e ap p ro ach to an sw e rin g th is q u e stio n has
involved th e application o f m ultidim ensional scalin g a n a ly sis.
Based on d ata d e riv e d from a su rv e y of women in Hamilton,
O ntario, P resto n (1982) concluded th a t re sid e n tia l a re a s a re
evalu ated in term s of land u s e , lot siz e , social c h a ra c te r , and
housing q u a lity . H ourihan (1979) also u s e d multidim ensional
scaling an aly sis when exam ining n eig h b o urhood p erc e p tio n
among a sample of re s id e n ts in D ublin, Ire la n d . T he social
s ta tu s of th e ev alu ated n eig h b o u rh o o d s tu r n e d o u t to be th e
most im portant d iffe re n tia tin g c h a ra c te ris tic , followed by
fam iliarity and h o u sin g s ty le . H ow ever, in d iv id u al d iffe re n c e s
in th e im portance a tta c h e d to th e s e dim ensions were
ap p a re n tly u n re la te d to th e socio-econom ic s ta tu s of th e
su b je c ts. In a d d itio n , alth o u g h th e o rth o g o n al p rin cip al
com ponents an a ly se s th a t a re generally u tilise d in sem antic
differen tial in v e stig a tio n s assum e th e ev alu ativ e dim ensions
a re in d e p e n d e n t, multidim ensional scalin g a p p ro a ch e s su g g e st
th a t th ey might be highly re la te d .
R esidential Choice
A ttem pts to model th e a ctu al choice p ro c e s s in volved in re s i
dential mobility have in clu d ed u sin g th e conjoint m easurem ent
tech n iq u e and inform ation in te g ra tio n th e o ry . T he conjoint
m easurem ent model re q u ire s su b je c ts to ev alu ate m u lti-a ttri-
b u te a lte rn a tiv e s by com paring p re d e te rm in ed lev els o f th e
supposedly im p o rtan t a ttr ib u te s . T he su b je ctiv e ra n k in g s o f
v ario u s com binations of th e se ex p erim en tal levels a re th e n
decomposed in to p re fe re n c e fu n c tio n s. F or exam ple, K night
and Menchik (1976) have ex p lo red in d iv id u a l p re fe re n c e s fo r a
v arie ty of re sid e n tia l form s b a se d on th e ra n k in g o f h y p o
th etical levels of su c h a ttr ib u te s a s d ista n c e betw een h o u se s,
view from th e b a c k y a rd , an d p ric e . Inform ation in te g ra tio n
th e o ry inv o lv es c o n s tru c tin g an alg e b ra ic model of human
info rm atio n -p ro cessin g , an d th e n te s tin g th is model by means
of an aly sis of v a ria n c e . The th e o ry is co n cern ed w ith how
d iffe re n t p ieces of inform ation a re in te g r a te d in to a single
overall ev alu atio n , an d in a stu d y o f s tu d e n t ju d g em en ts a s to
th e re sid e n tia l d e sira b ility of v a rio u s n e ig h b o u rh o o d s,
275
M IG R A T IO N AND I N T R A - U R B A N M O B IL IT Y
L o u v iere a n d M eyer (1976) p ro v id e d e v id e n c e fo r a lin e a r

a v e ra g in g k in d o f com bination r u le .
An in c re a s in g ly p o p u la r a p p ro a c h fo r a n a ly sin g d is c re te
choice s itu a tio n s in v o lv e s u s in g lo g -lin e a r m odels. Such
m odels r e p r e s e n t a g ro u p o f p ro c e d u r e s fo r in v e s tig a tin g th e
a sso c ia tio n s among a s e t o f c a te g o ric a l v a ria b le s . D isc re te
m u ltiv a ria te a n a ly s is allows a la rg e n u m b er o f p a ra m e te rs to
be e s tim a te d , in c lu d in g o n e s f o r e ach o f th e c a te g o ry le v e ls ,
a s well a s a n y im p o rta n t in te r a c tio n s am ong them . It should
be n o te d , h o w e v e r, th a t m odels w hich c o n ta in t h ir d - o r d e r
in te r a c tio n s , o r more th a n th r e e s e c o n d - o rd e r in te r a c tio n s ,
a re o fte n v e r y d iffic u lt to i n t e r p r e t . T h e most th a t can be
said in su c h s itu a tio n s is th a t th e a sso c ia tio n s t r u c t u r e is
ex trem ely com plex. W hitney a n d B oots (1978) h a v e u s e d a
lo n g -lin e a r m odelling a p p ro a c h to a s s e s s th e im pact of se le c te d
h o u seh o ld c h a r a c te r is tic s on r e s id e n tia l m obility in th e tw in
c itie s o f K itc h e n e r a n d W aterloo, O n ta rio . In a sim ilar v e in ,
Segal (1979) h a s p ro v id e d an exam ple o f lo g -lin e a r m odelling
in th e c o n te x t o f n e ig h b o u rh o o d c h o ic e .
It is c le a r th a t th e p ro c e s s o f re s id e n tia l choice re q u ir e s
h o u se h o ld s to choose b etw een a n u m b e r o f a lte r n a tiv e s th a t
a re e ach d e s c rib e d b y many a t tr i b u t e s . As su c h we a re
d ea lin g w ith a com plex p ro c e s s , a n d most choice m odels make
th e p e rh a p s u n w a rra n te d a ssu m p tio n th a t in d iv id u a ls can
c o n sid e r all th e a t t r ib u t e s d e s c rib in g each a lte rn a tiv e b e fo re
com ing to a d e c isio n . T h e e lim in a tio n -b y -a s p e c ts m odel,
h o w ev er, c irc u m v e n ts th is problem b y e x p lic itly p o s tu la tin g a
s e q u e n tia l p ro c e s s in w hich in d iv id u a ls can elim inate a la rg e
n u m b e r of a lte r n a tiv e s a f t e r o n ly a few a ttr ib u te s h av e b een
c o n s id e re d . T he d e c isio n -m a k e r s e le c ts o ne a s p e c t, o r a t t r i
b u te , a n d th e n elim in ates all a lte r n a tiv e s th a t a r e u n s a tis
fa c to ry w ith re s p e c t to th a t sin g le a t t r i b u t e . T h en a seco n d
a ttr ib u te is c h o s e n , a n d so o n , u n til only one a lte rn a tiv e
rem ain s. In th is way th e d e c isio n -m a k e r is n o t e x p e c te d to
in te g r a te all th e p e r tin e n t in fo rm atio n b e fo re a r r iv in g a t one
ultim ate d e c isio n , b u t r a t h e r , th e p ro b lem is decom posed in to
a s e r ie s o f d ecisio n s te p s .
Within th e c o n te x t o f r e s id e n tia l m obility we can h y p o
th e s is e a t le a st two s u c h s te p s . F ir s t, th e h o u se h o ld m ight
collect info rm atio n to help s e le c t an a p p ro p r ia te n e ig h b o u r
hood. S eco n d , in fo rm atio n is o b ta in e d to choose a sp ecific
h o u se w ith in th a t n e ig h b o u rh o o d . U sing d a ta from S y ra c u s e ,
New Y o rk , T a la rc h e k (1982) fo u n d th a t b e h a v io u ra l p a tte r n s
o f re s id e n tia l s e a rc h a n d selectio n a re h ig h ly in d iv id u a l, b u t
th a t th e s e q u e n c e in w hich in fo rm a tio n is a c q u ire d does
in d ic a te a g e n e ra l tw o -s ta g e p r o c e s s o f th e k in d ju s t d e s
c r ib e d . When in v e s tig a tin g th e lo catio n al choice p ro c e s s o f
some new r e s id e n ts in M elb o u rn e, A u s tra lia , Y oung (1984)
also fo u n d th a t th e e lim in a tio n -b y -a s p e c ts model p ro v id e d an
a c c e p ta b le s ta tis tic a l fit to th e d a ta .
276
M IGR ATIO N AND IN T R A -U R B A N MOBILITY
It should be rem em bered, ho w ev er, when modelling

resid e n tia l choice, th a t one should n e v e r e x p ec t a p e rfe c t
correlation betw een p re fe re n c e s and b e h a v io u r, a s all
decisions a re acted o u t w ithin a s e rie s o f c o n tex tu a l con
s tr a in ts . The c o n stra in ts th a t o p e ra te w ithin th e co n te x t of
resid en tial mobility involve o b stacles th a t p ro d u ce a ttitu d e -
d isc re p a n t b eh av io u r b y r e s tr ic tin g th e o p p o rtu n ity s e t,
in flu en cin g th e form ation of p re fe re n c e s , o r p re v e n tin g choice
actualisation (D e sb a ra ts, 1983). T h ese c o n s tra in ts can be
e ith e r in dividual o r in stitu tio n a l in th e ir o rig in . At th e
individual level a p o ten tial m ig ra n t's income will obviously
re s tr ic t w here he o r sh e can liv e , re g a rd le s s of th e u n d e r
lyin g p re fe re n c e s . At th e in stitu tio n a l lev el, real e sta te
ag e n ts have a sig n ifican t im pact on m igration flows because
they a re a major re p o sito ry of inform ation co n cern in g housing
vacan cies. Sim ilarly, financial in s titu tio n s su ch as b a n k s and
sav in g s and loan associations influ en ce mobility p a tte rn s
th ro u g h th e ir reg u latio n of th e flow of m ortgage money into
th e hou sin g m ark et.
F u tu re re s e a rc h on re sid e n tia l m obility is likely to be
more balanced with re s p e c t to th e co n sid eratio n of demand
and su p p ly side c h a ra c te ris tic s . E x istin g models of the
resid en tial decision-m aking p ro c e ss n eg lect th e role of v a rio u s
in stitu tio n a l c o n s tr a in ts , th u s im plying a situ a tio n of consum er
so v e re ig n ty . G re a te r a tte n tio n to th e b e h a v io u r of su p p ly side
ac to rs will not only in c re a se th e p re d ic tiv e cap acities of su ch
models, b u t will also facilitate th e developm ent of g o v e rn
mental in te rv e n tio n s tra te g ie s fo r im proving h o using con
sum ption (Moore, 1982). T hese lin k s betw een mobility and
public policy will be in c re a sin g ly sc ru tin is e d a s governm ents
attem pt to u n d e rs ta n d th e im pacts of th e ir neighbourhood
program m es.
Acknowledgements
The s tu d y was su p p o rte d by g ra n ts from th e Wisconsin
Alumni R esearch F oundation an d th e National Science
F oundation, g ra n t num ber SES-8206940. P a rt of th e work was
u n d e rta k e n while th e a u th o r was a V isiting Scholar in th e
D epartm ent o f G eo g rap h y , U niv ersity o f C am bridge.
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A ustralian G e o g ra p h e r, 16, 21-28
283
C h a p te r Ten
POPULATION MODELLING
P. Rees
ON MODELS AND POPULATION
Social sc ie n tists look at th e w orld from a larg e num ber of

view points - m ethodological, p o litical, philosophical. Very
often th e y attem pt to make sen se of w hat th e y o b se rv e by
sim plifying th e ir view in to a set of p ro p o sitio n s about human
beh av io u r. T h ese p ro p o sitio n s may be se t out in forms th a t
can be v erified o r re je c te d b y com parison with rea lity
(po sitiv ist social science) o r in forms th a t do not d ep en d on
such com parison (d ialectical social sc ie n c e ). In th is c h a p te r
atten tio n will be c o n c e n tra ted on re p re s e n ta tio n s of re ality o r
models th a t fall betw een th e p o sitiv ist an d dialectical view s.
The models d isc u sse d a re q u a n tita tiv e sta te m e n ts about how
populations develop th a t d e riv e from logical arg u m en t about
the p ro c e sse s th a t a ffect th o se p o p u la tio n s, which can be
filled w ith em pirical c o n te n t, b u t fo r which te s ts o f em pirical
validity a re ra re ly form ulated.
Two co n cern s have m otivated population m odellers: the
firs t is a d e sire to u n d e rs ta n d th e b eh a v io u r of po p u latio n s in
th e p a s t; th e second is a con cern to u n d e rs ta n d how po p u l
ations may develop in th e f u tu r e . T he models d isc u sse d in
th is c h a p te r c o n c e n tra te on th e la tte r c o n c ern .
A wide v a rie ty of d iffe re n t p opulations have been
modelled a t many sp atial sc a le s. T he commonest u n it of
analysis h as been th e in d iv id u al a g g re g a te d fo r some se t of
spatial u n its . G roups of in d iv id u a ls su ch as households have
also been u s e d , th o u g h le ss o fte n . O ccasionally, th e sp a tial
u n it its e lf h a s been u se d an d its evolution betw een population
sta te s o v er time exam ined. T he d ifficu lty of an aly sis ris e s a s
one p ro ceed s from modelling p opulations of in d iv id u a ls to
modelling p opulations of h ouseholds to m odelling populations of
are a s: th e co n sen su s of e x p e rie n c e is th a t, if p o ssib le , it is
b est to work out th e n a tu re of hou seh o ld s and th e c h a ra c te r
of are a s from th e actio n s o f in d iv id u a ls.
What is attem pted in th is c h a p te r is an account of some
of th e is su e s which r e s e a rc h e rs se e k in g to build explicit
284
P O P U L A T IO N MODELLING
q u a n tita tiv e models of population dynam ics need to keep in

mind. T he exam ples a re draw n mainly from th e a u th o r's
exp erien ce with m ulti-regional population models b u t many o f
th e iss u e s apply equally to o th e r families o f models su ch as
tho se based on microsim ulation p rin c ip le s (C la rk e , K eys and
Williams, 1981) o r sp a tia l in te ra c tio n p rin c ip le s (L e d e n t, 1985;
Stillwell, 1983; Willekens and B a y d a r, 1985).
In th e n e x t section of th e c h a p te r some fundam ental
concepts u n d e rly in g population modelling a re d e sc rib e d ,
initially in relatio n to an ideal d a ta s e t. T he following section
th en c o n s tru c ts population pro jectio n models u sin g th o se
fundam ental c o n c e p ts. T he final section of th e c h a p te r in tro
duces some sim plifications of th e m atrix models a n d compli
ca tio n s, th a t is , a sp e c ts of population dynam ics not in clu d ed
in th e e a rlie r review of co n cep ts an d m odels.
FUNDAMENTAL CONCEPTS
An Ideal D ata Set and a Life H istory Fram ew ork

An ideal d ata set fo r in v e stig a tin g population dynam ics would
consist of th e life h isto rie s of a population in which all th e
a ttrib u te s of an in d iv id u al an d th e c h a n g e s in th o se a ttr ib u te s
th a t tak e place a re re c o rd e d c o n tin u o u sly . F ig u re 10.1 show s
an a b s tra c t re p re s e n ta tio n of such a s e t. T he system of
in te re s t is b o u n d e d , b o th sp atially an d tem porally; th e system
is divided in to 4 s ta te s ; th e system h a s a population stock at
th e s ta r t (p e rso n s B, C in th e diagram ) an d a population
stock a t th e e n d ; th e system re c e iv e s e n trie s o f ind iv id u als
from th e o u tsid e world o v e r time (p e rs o n s A, D in th e d ia
gram ) and loses m em bers to th e o u tsid e w orld (p e rso n s
C , D ).
An example th a t b e g in s to ap proxim ate to th is ideal d ata
set is th e OPCS L ongitudinal S tu d y (B row n a n d F ox, 1984) in
which th e Office o f Population C en su ses an d S u rv e y s (OPCS)
has add ed v ital e v e n ts re c o rd s o v e r th e p erio d 1971-81 to a 4
b irth d a y s in 365 (ju s t o v e r 1%) sample o f th e population
usually re sid e n t in E ngland and Wales a t th e 1971 c e n s u s , and
is c u rre n tly lin k in g th o se re c o rd s w ith th e e n trie s fo r th e
same p e rso n s tra c e a b le in th e 1981 c e n s u s . T he focus to d ate
in stu d ie s u sin g th is d ata se t h as b een th e re la tio n sh ip s
betw een ch an g es of s ta te in th e 1971-81 p e rio d (su c h a s mor
ta lity , c a n c e r in cidence o r m igration) to c h a ra c te ris tic s
reco rd ed in th e 1971 c e n su s at th e s t a r t o f th e perio d (su c h
as hou sin g te n u r e , social class o r e th n ic ity ).
T he view of th e o u tsid e w orld ta k e n in F ig u re 10.1 h as
also been u se d in p ro jectiv e s tu d ie s (S to n e , 1971, 1975) b u t
for most p u rp o se s it is n e c e ssa ry to decompose e n trie s and
e x its in to c a te g o rie s th a t more closely m atch re a l e v e n ts .
E n tra n ts to th e system can be d iv id ed in to b ir th s (new
p e rso n s) an d im m igrants (p e rs o n s e n te rin g from th e o u tsid e
285
P O PU L A T IO N MODELLING
S tart Time — End
4 —t— I—<■—t- S p a t ia l B o u n d a r y o l T e m p o ra l B o u n d a ry ot
S y s te m I System
----------------------- B o u n d a ry 8 e t w e e n S t a te a M o v e a B e tw e e n S t a t e s
----------------------- L ife H ia to ry (K n o w n ) Q E n tra n ta T o S y a te m B irth
A , B. C, D. L ife H ia to ry T y p e a © L e a v e rs F ro m S y a te m [d ] D e a th
-------------------- L ife H isto ry (U nknow n)
Fig. 10.1 Life h isto rie s in an ideal d a ta s e t.
w o rld ); le a v e rs can be b ro k e n down in to d e a th s (p e rso n s

dyin g ) an d em ig ran ts (p e rs o n s e x itin g to th e o u tsid e w o rld ).
A full decom position reco g n ises fo u r s ta r tin g life s ta te s for
p e rso n s an d fo u r e n d in g life s ta te s (R ees and Wilson, 1973;
R ees, 1984a), y ield in g six te e n p o ssib le k in d s of life h is to ry .
Such a scheme is shown in Table 10.1. O r, b ecau se th e
d etailed inform ation fo r su ch classificatio n s is o fte n not
available, a conden sed v e rsio n w ith th re e s ta r tin g life sta te s
is o ften u se fu l (T able 1 0 .2 ).
T he im portance of su c h schem es is th a t th e y enable the
re s e a rc h e r to reco g n ise c learly th e position of h is o r h e r d ata
set with re sp e c t to an ideal fram ew ork, a n d , in p a rtic u la r, to
work out w hat su b p o p u latio n s have b een m issed a n d what
b iases a re p re s e n t in th e d a ta se t b e in g em ployed. For
exam ple, in Table 10.3 th e inform ation given in Brown and
286
T a b le 1 0 .1 : S i x t e e n L i f e H i s t o r y Types
F in a l s t a t e s T o tals
S u r v i v a l a t end D ea th i n i n t e r v a l
In sid e O u tsid e In sid e O u ts i d e
s y s te m sy s te m
I n itia l sta te s si so d i do
I n s i d e sy s te m el b S tartin g
E x ist a t ! * p o p u latio n
start 1
O u t s i d e sy s te m eo 1 e f E x istin g
L® im m ig ra n ts
i
1
L_ _
I n s i d e sy s te m bi j rj B irth s
B irth in
p eriod 1
POPULATION
O u t s i d e sy s te m bo 1 m n In fan t
im m i g ra n t s
T o tals End S u rv iv in g D e a th s Non A ll

p o p u la tio n em igrants su rv iv in g persons
em igrants
l i f e h is t o r y quadrant
287
POPULATION
288
T a b le 1 0 .2 : Nine L i f e H i s t o r y Types
MODELLING
F in a l s t a te s T o tals
I n s i d e sy s te m O u ts i d e
S u r v i v a l D eath i n sy s te m
a t end in terv al
In itia l sta te s si di .o
E x isten ce ei q r s S tartin g
In sid e at start p o p u latio n
sy s tem
B irth in bi t u v B ir th s in
in terv al sy s tem
O utside .0 w X y E x istin g
sy s te m im m ig ra n ts
T o tals E nding D e a th s E m ig ra n ts A ll
p o p u l a t i o n i n sy s te m persons
P O P U L A T I O N M O D E L L IN G
Fox (1984) on th e n u m b e rs of p eople c a p tu r e d in th e L ong

itu d in a l S tu d y who e x p e rie n c e v a rio u s e v e n ts h a s b e e n r e
assem bled a n d re -e s tim a te d in a th r e e in itia l s ta te - th r e e fin al
s ta te fram ew o rk . In itia lly , 530,000 sam ple m em bers w ere
se le c te d from th e 1971 c e n s u s , b u t on ly 513,000 could be
tra c e d in th e N ational H ealth S e rv ic e C e n tra l R e g is tra r
(N H SC R ). Some 71,000 b ir th s a n d 28,000 im m ig ran ts w ere
a d d e d to th e sam ple o v e r th e d e c a d e from th e fo u r b ir th d a y s
an d 60,000 d e a th s o c c u r r e d to sam ple m em bers. E m ig ran ts
s u r r e n d e r in g th e ir NHS c a r d s n u m b e r 14,000 b u t th is was
c le a rly an u n d e rc o u n t a s OPCS e stim a te th a t th e r e was a
s lig h t em ig ratio n lo ss to th e E n g lan d a n d Wales p o p u la tio n
o v e r th e 1971-81 d e c a d e . If th e n u m b e r o f e m ig ra n ts is
e stim ated as 30,000 th e n th e rem ain in g n u m b e rs in th e ta b le
(T ab le 10.3) follow from th e a c c o u n tin g a rith m e tic , u sin g
m arginal d is tr ib u tio n s w h ere n e c e s s a r y . Of th e 429,000 sam ple
mem bers who a re e stim a te d to h a v e a p p e a re d in b o th 1971 an d
1981 c e n s u s e s , only 405,000 could b e fo u n d , o f whom 400,000
could also c u r r e n tly be tr a c e d in th e NHSCR. It is th e s e
400,000 w ith h is to rie s lin k e d b etw een 1971 a n d 1981 who a re
in th e p ro c e s s of b e in g in te n s iv e ly s tu d ie d . T h is will be
a p p ro p ria te fo r most p u r p o s e s , b u t r e s e a r c h e r s will n e ed to
b e a r in mind th a t th is d a ta s e t c o n ta in s o n ly 65% of th e life
h is to rie s o rig in a lly sam pled.
T he a c c o u n tin g fram ew o rk u s e d h e re to a n a ly se th e
n a tu re of life h is to ry d a ta s e ts h a s b e e n em ployed in reg io n al
po p u latio n p ro je c tio n s b a se d on a g g re g a te d a ta , b u t w ith one
slig h t d iffe re n c e . T he tr a n s itio n s o f p e r s o n s from o u ts id e th e
system to o u ts id e th e sy stem a g a in (fo r ex am ple, life h is to ry
D in F ig u re 10.1; cells f , h , m a n d p in T ab le 10.1; cell y in
Table 10.2) h av e g e n e ra lly b een ig n o re d a s th e y c o n trib u te to
n e ith e r th e in itia l p o p u la tio n s to c k s n o r to th e fin a l. How
e v e r , if th e fo cu s o f in te r e s t is on b e h a v io u ra l re la tio n s h ip s
in a p o p u la tio n , c o g n isa n c e m ust b e ta k e n of th e s e p e r s o n s ,
estim ated a s 1000 in th e L o n g itu d in al S tu d y sam ple, a s p a r t o f
th e ir liv e s a re s p e n t w ith in th e sy ste m o f i n te r e s t.
S ta te s of th e System
D iscu ssio n to d a te h a s c o n c e rn e d th e m a c ro -s ta te s o r life -
s ta te s of th e p o p u la tio n d e n o te d in T a b le s 10.1 a n d 10.2 u s in g
le tte r s s u c h a s ’’s i" , s u rv iv a l in sid e th e sy stem a t th e e n d of
th e time in te r v a l. H ow ever, of more in tr in s ic in te r e s t will be
th e w ays in w hich th e p o p u la tio n is d e s c rib e d o r c la ssifie d ,
a n d th e m ovement of in d iv id u a ls b e tw e e n su c h c la s s e s o v e r
th e ir lifetim es.
S et o u t in F ig u re 10.2 a re exam ples of th e k in d of s ta te
to s ta te t r a n s f e r s th a t h a v e b e e n b u ilt in to p o p u latio n m odels.
T r a n s f e r s allowed b y th e lo g ic o f th e c la ssific a tio n s h a v e b ee n
sh a d e d .
289
H
T a b le 1 0 .3 : An E s t i m a t e o f t h e Number o f P e r s o n s i n t h e OPCSL o n g i t u d i n a l o
S tu d y , 1 971 -8 1, i n a C l a s s i f i c a t i o n U sing Nine L i f e H i s t o r y Types Z
2
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- O
F in al s t a te s T o tals Ö
E ngland and Wales t-<
I n itia l sta te s S u rvival O u tsid e £
( a l l p o p u latio n s Census D e ath E ngland Z
a r e i n 1000s) 1981 1971-81 and Wales °
England C ensus 1971 (429) (56) (28) 513

and
Wales B i r t h 1971-81 (67) (3) (1) 71
O u ts i d e England and Wales 26 (1 ) (1) 28
T o tals (522) 60 (30) 612
S o u rc e : F i g u r e s a s s e m b le d from Brown and Fox (1 9 8 4 ) . Those i n b r a c k e t s have

been e stim a te d ( e . g . e m ig ra n ts ).
4t
A. Agg group transitions B T r a m l t l o n « In a female
d ominant f e r tility model
Age Age groups at end '"\Child

groups Male Female
at start 0-19 20-39 110-59 60* Adult^\
0-19 V//A Male
20-39
40-59
Y//A Female V/ / / / 2 Z//ZZZ
60*
« F o r those who txlct and survive.
C. Marital condition moves D. Marital c o ndition transitions
Marital Marital M ar i t a l status at end

status move s tatus
t>afore at start
move s M w D s M w D
Single V // Single vaaa M A
Married y/7? AAAA Married '///, M A
Widowed Widowed V / A .\AAy. '// .
Divorced V//, D ivorced AAAAAAA/ AAA/
Single - never married married includes re- m a r r i e d
E. Geographical moves F. Geo g r a p h i c a l transitions
Region Region after move Region Reg i o n at end

before at
move R1 R2 R3 RÛ start R1 R2 R3 RU
Region 1 '/// Region 1 'A / ; AAA/
Region 2
*//A 'A A A W VAA
s
V 'AAA
/ / ///
Region 3 /// R egi o n 3
Region Ü
m m m ii'" Region U / / AAA/ AAA L.\ V V V
/ / / / Inter-region moves Stayers
Q. Labour force transitions H. Educati o n a l t r a n s itions
Status Status at end End of S t art of n e w y e a r

at start old year
In Wo Se Re P s T H
Inactive AA//\AAAVAAV/A Primary VAA, V ///
Working
VA/ / / a v //> S e c ondary VAA/ V/A*
Seeking VAaA A A / AAA/AA/y T e r tlary AAA,
Retired VAA H i gher AAAA
Fig. 10.2 Exam ples of s ta te to s ta te t r a n s f e r s em ployed in
p o p u la tio n m odels.
Most fre q u e n tly in c o rp o ra te d a re a g e g ro u p to ag e g ro u p

tr a n s f e r s (F ig u re 1 0 .2 A ), w hich in m ost c a se s in v o lv e
tr a n s f e r from one ag e g ro u p to th e n e x t h ig h e s t. I f th e p o p
ulation model d e sig n allows a n y o th e r t r a n s f e r (e x c e p t in th e
la st open e n d e d ag e g ro u p ) i t m ust b e tr e a te d s c e p tic a lly .
T he e x a c t m eaning o f th e "a g e g ro u p ” will d iffe r d e p e n d in g
291
P O P ULATIO N MODELLING
on which life h is to ry q u a d ra n t th e tra n s itio n s fall in , and

what age-tim e o b se rv a tio n plan is u se d .
Normally, in population models th e p op u latio n s of both
sex es a re u se d b ecau se th e ir o b se rv e d b e h av io u r d iffe rs .
T ra n s fe rs betw een th e sex es o c c u r in only one re sp e c t in the
fe rtility com ponent of a population pro jectio n model: in fa n ts of
e ith e r sex a re p ro d u c e d b y m ultiplying female p o p u lations a t
risk b y th e a p p ro p ria te fe rtility r a te s . T he m arriage p ro c e ss
is usually re p re s e n te d in dem ographic models by moves by th e
individual from an u n m arried to a m arried s ta te (F ig u re
1 0 .2 0 ). T he in sta n te o u s moves allowed betw een m arital
s ta tu s e s a re logically r e s tric te d by th e ir d efinition: no-one
who has been m arried can become n e v e r-m a rrie d ; a d iv orced
p e rso n cannot become widowed d ir e c tly , a m arriage m ust
in te rv e n e . H ow ever, if we compare a p e r s o n 's m arital con
dition at one point in time with th a t at a n o th e r, th en
tra n s itio n s betw een most m arital s ta tu s e s can tak e place
(F ig u re 1 0.2D ), p a rtic u la rly if th e time in te rv a l is le n g th y .
T h is d istin ctio n betw een in sta n te o u s moves a n d tr a n s
itions o v er a time in te rv a l is an im p o rtan t one in th e d esign
of a population model in c o rp o ra tin g m igration betw een geo
grap h ical p la c e s. A lthough th e m igration m atrices in F ig u res
10.2E and 1 0 .2F a re sim ilarly sh a d e d , th e y a re d istin g u ish e d
conceptually an d should be u se d w ith d iffe re n t population
projection models (see R ees, 1984a).
Labour force tr a n s itio n s , as re p re s e n te d in F ig u re
10 .2G, a re fairly s tra ig h tfo rw a rd in p rin c ip le , th o u g h
m easurem ent of all tra n s itio n s is d ifficu lt b ecause th e in active
and re tire d ten d to escap e th e sta tis tic a l n e ts th a t c a p tu re
th e employed and th o se se e k in g w ork (th e unem ployed).
The example in F ig u re 1 0 .2H of tra n s itio n s in th e e d u c
ational system illu s tra te s th e care th a t must be tak en in
definitions of s ta te s . W hereas most tr a n s f e r s take place o v er
th e co u rse of a y e a r, in schools an d colleges tr a n s f e r s o ccu r
betw een th e en d of one edu catio n al y e a r an d th e b e g in n in g of
th e n e x t. T his c a n , fo r exam ple, cau se confusion when models
in th e educational s e c to r a re com pared w ith those in o th e r
se c to rs.
Most population models will involve com binations of th e
c h a ra c te ris tic s d isp lay ed in F ig u re 10.2. In some c a se s th is is
esse n tia l if reaso n ab le r e s u lts a re to be o b tain e d . For
exam ple, F ig u re 10.2H 's educational tra n s itio n s must be d isa g
g re g a te d carefu lly by age: o th erw ise i f a g e -a g g re g a te d tr a n s
itions p ro b ab ilities w ere to be u se d in th e u su al m ultiplicative
models, th e n p u p ils would be seen su rv iv in g in g ra d e s lo n g er
th an th e ru le s of th e edu catio n al system allow ed. T he most
usu al combination inv o lv es a g e , sex an d one o th e r a ttrib u te of
in te r e s t. E xpanding th e s ta te space of th e model f u r th e r th a n
th e se th re e dim ensions quickly lead s to d ifficu lties of too
sp a rse m atrices of tra n s itio n s . For in s ta n c e , if th e fairly
cru d e classificatio n s of F ig u re 10.2 w ere com bined, the
292
nu m b er of s ta te s in to w hich th e p o p u la tio n h a d to b e d iv id e d
would b e 2048 w ith o v e r 150,000 s ta te to s ta te tra n s itio n s to
be in c o rp o ra te d in to th e p o p u la tio n m odel. A b r ie f review o f
a lte rn a tiv e s tr a te g ie s f o r d e a lin g w ith th is com binatorial
problem is g iv e n below .
Type of T ra n sfe r
T h e re was c o n sid e ra b le c o n fu sio n in th e 1970s, w hen th e
co n v en tio n al c o h o rt- s u r v iv a l a n d life e x p e c ta n c y m odels w ere
g e n e ra lise d to in c o rp o ra te a n a d d itio n a l s e t o f s ta te s su c h as
g e o g ra p h ic a l re g io n s o r m arital s ta tu s e s , a s to th e re la tio n
sh ip b etw een ty p e o f t r a n s f e r d a ta a n d a p p ro p ria te model (se e
R ees, 1983a fo r d e ta ile d s o u rc e s a n d d is c u s s io n ) . What w as a t
issu e was not th e form o f th e m u ltista te c o h o rt- s u rv iv a l o r
life e x p e c ta n c y m odel, b u t r a t h e r th e w ay in w hich th e m ulti
s ta te tr a n s itio n p ro b a b ilitie s sh o u ld b e c a lc u la te d from d if
fe re n t k in d s o f t r a n s f e r d a ta , a n d how th e in te r p r e ta tio n o f
model o u tp u ts d iffe re d d e p e n d in g on t r a n s f e r d a ta ty p e .
T r a n s f e r s can b e m e asu red in one o f th r e e w ays: e ith e r
as tr a n s itio n s o r a s m oves o r a s la s t m ig ra tio n s. A tr a n s itio n
is a c h a n g e of a p e r s o n !s s ta te from th a t at th e s t a r t of a
time in te rv a l to th a t a t th e e n d . A move is a c h a n g e b etw een
a p r io r s ta te to a follow ing s ta te d u r in g a time in te r v a l. A
la s t m igration is th e c h a n g e b etw een th e c u r r e n t s ta te a t th e
en d of a time in te r v a l a n d th e la s t p re v io u s s ta te th a t was
d if f e r e n t, w ithin th e tim e in te r v a l o f m e a su rem en t. If we have
an ideal life h is to ry d a ta s e t , tr a n s f e r s can b e m e asu red in
an y o f th e s e w ay s. C o n sid e r th e life h is to rie s in F ig u re 10.1.
Betw een s ta te s K2 an d K3 th e r e a re tw o moves (b y p e r s o n s B
an d C) b u t o nly one tr a n s itio n (p e rs o n B) a n d one la st
m igration o r m ig ran t (p e rs o n B ). B etw een s ta te s K1 a n d K2
th e r e a re tw o moves (b y p e rs o n s A a n d D ), one la s t
m igration (p e rs o n A) b u t no tr a n s itio n s b e c a u se p e rs o n A
would be c o u n te d in th e o u ts id e s y s te m -s ta te K2 tr a n s itio n ,
not th a t from K1 to K2. In g e n e ra l, th e r e a re more moves
th a n la s t m ig ratio n s th a n tr a n s itio n s (R e e s , 1984a). T he
num ber of tr a n s itio n s a n d la s t m ig ra tio n s can n e v e r ex ce ed
th e n u m b er o f p e r s o n s in th e sy s te m , b u t th e r e is no su c h
re s tr ic tio n on th e n u m b er o f m oves. U sing b o th movement
d a ta a n d tr a n s itio n d a ta it is p o ssib le to lin k o p e n in g and
clo sin g s to c k s of a p o p u la tio n a n d th u s to dev elo p p o p u la tio n
p ro je c tio n m odels (W illekens a n d D rew e, 1984; R e e s, 1984b).
Life ta b le s can b e c o n s tr u c te d from b o th movement an d t r a n s
itio n p e rs p e c tiv e s (L e d e n t, 1980, L ed en t a n d R ee s, 1980). It
is n o t p o s s ib le , h o w e v e r, to employ la s t m ig ratio n d a ta in
su c h m odels d ire c tly (C o u rg e a u , 1980) u n til th e y h a v e b een
co n v e rte d in to tr a n s itio n d a ta e stim a te s (R e e s , 1984a).
T h e re fo re , in d e v e lo p in g a m u ltista te model o f a p o p
ulation o f i n te r e s t it is n e c e s s a ry to f i r s t a s c e rta in w hat ty p e
o f t r a n s f e r d a ta a re a v a ila b le a n d th e n to a d o p t th e a p p r o p r i
293
P O P U L A T IO N M ODELLING
a te model. T h u s , W illekens a n d D rew e (1 9 8 4 ), in th e ir p r o

jection model fo r th e p ro v in c e s o f th e N e th e rla n d s , u se
R e g is te r d e riv e d m ig ratio n d a ta w hich c o n s titu te moves r a th e r
th a n tr a n s itio n s , an d th e r e f o r e u s e a m ovem ent b a s e d p r o
jectio n m odel. Ram a n d R ees (1985) h a v e available m igration
d a ta o f a tr a n s itio n n a tu r e from a r e tr o s p e c tiv e sam ple s u rv e y
in th e ir s tu d y o f th e In d ia n p o p u la tio n o f B ra d fo rd , an d
th e re fo re ad o p t a tra n s itio n b a s e d p ro je c tio n model.
In b o th th e s e s tu d ie s u s e w as made o f dem ographic
a c c o u n ts , w hich a re c o n s is te n t ta b u la tio n s o f th e d a ta in p u t
to th e b a s e p e rio d of th e p ro je c tio n model a n d an in v a lu ab le
aid to th e p r o p e r estim atio n of th e n e c e s s a ry tra n s itio n o r
movement r a t e s . T ab le 10.4 s e ts o u t tra n s itio n a c c o u n ts a n d
movement a c c o u n ts ta b le s fo r one ag e tr a n s itio n .
In th e tra n s itio n a c c o u n ts ta b le (T a b le 1 0 .4 A ), th e same
v a ria b le , K , is u se d th ro u g h o u t to r e p r e s e n t p e rs o n s in an
age tr a n s itf tn c la ssifie d b y row a n d column s ta te s show n in
th e s u p e r s c r ip t lis t w h e re a s d if f e r e n t l e t te r s a re u se d in th e
movement a c c o u n ts ta b le to r e p r e s e n t d iffe re n t e v e n ts . T he
s u p e r s c r ip t list c o n s is ts of a m a c ro sta te lab el fo r in itia l life
s ta te to g e th e r w ith th e a sso c ia te d m eso state location label
followed by a m a c ro sta te lab el fo r fin al life s ta te to g e th e r w ith
its a sso c ia te d location ( o r o th e r s ta te ) la b e l. F o r exam ple,
Kae ^sI r e p r e s e n ts th e n u m b er o f p e r s o n s in an age tra n s itio n
a e x is tin g in re g io n 2 at th e s t a r t o f th e time in te r v a l who
m igrate to a n d s u r v iv e in re g io n 1 a t th e e n d o f th e in te r v a l.
Such inform ation is su p p lie d in many c e n s u s m igration ta b le s
b a se d on a re tr o s p e c tiv e q u e s tio n ab o u t w h ere people w ere
r e s id e n t one o r five y e a r s b e fo re th e c e n s u s . C a re fu l e stim
ation is r e q u ir e d of th e d a ta th a t a re in p u t to p o p u latio n
a cc o u n ts a n d a m odelling sy ste m is u se d to fill o u t th e ta b le
in a c o n s is te n t fash io n (s e e R ees, 1981 fo r full d e ta ils of
o p e ra tio n s s o ftw a re ).
T he exam ple of tr a n s itio n a c c o u n ts fo r S o u th E ast
E ngland (T ab le 1 0 .4B) show s how th e p o p u la tio n s of th e
S ou th E ast a n d th e R e st o f G reat B rita in o f 1.184 a n d 2.385
millions t r a n s f e r o v e r th e 1966-71 q u in q u e n n iu m . Some 16% of
th e S outh E a stfs 20-24 y e a r o ld s m ig ra te o u t o f th e re g io n , to
be only p a rtia lly re p la c e d b y in - m ig r a n ts . O nly 9% o f th e R est
o f B r ita in 's p o p u latio n o u t-m ig ra te s b u t lo sse s a r e h ig h e r
a b so lu te ly .
Movement a c c o u n ts (T a b le 1 0 .4 C ) h av e a sim pler
s tr u c tu r e in th a t th e re g io n a l d e a th s (D a 1, Da2 ) a r e e n te r e d
in th e row s in w hich th e d e c e a se d w ere liv in g p r io r to th e ir
final move r a th e r th a n a s colum n to ta ls (K je *d * , Ka e *d2) to
e x is te n c e -d e a th tra n s itio n m atrix (w hich h a s to be estim ate d
r a th e r th a n m e a su re d d ir e c tly ) . T h e c o u n ts o f in te rre g io n a l
m oves a re e n te r e d in th e same p o sitio n s a s th e c o rre s p o n d in g
c o u n ts of e x is t- s u r v iv e tr a n s itio n s . T h e tw o ty p e s o f a c c o u n ts
d iffe r in th e n a tu r e o f th e d iag o n al te rm s: th e Ka e i s i te rm s
in tra n s itio n a c c o u n ts r e p r e s e n t c o u n ts o f s u rv iv in g s ta y e r s
294
P O P U L A T IO N M O D E L L IN G
who may b e c o u n te d d ire c tly in th e c e n s u s ta b le s o r w orked

o u t a s re s id u a ls b y s u b tr a c tin g from th e in itia l o r fin al p o p u l
atio n s th e o th e r elem en ts in th e c o rre s p o n d in g row o r colum n.
The d iag o n al te rm s in movement a c c o u n ts a r e , h o w ev e r,
alw ays w ork ed o u t a s re s id u a ls a n d m erely s e r v e as a rith m e tic
b a la n c in g te rm s.
A lthough it is n o t p o ssib le to com pare th e exam ple of
movement a c c o u n ts d ire c tly b e c a u se th e s p a tia l sy ste m s d if f e r ,
th e level o f m ovem ents is c le a rly much h ig h e r th a n th e level
of tr a n s itio n s (T ab le 1 0 .4 B ): th is is u n lik ely to r e p r e s e n t a
re a l d iffe re n c e in m obility le v e ls b etw een th e two p e rio d s . In
g e n e ra l, th e la r g e r th e tim e in te r v a l u s e d in m e a su rin g demo
g ra p h ic tr a n s f e r s th e g r e a te r will b e th e d iffe re n c e s b etw een
tra n s itio n , movement a n d la s t m ig ran t m e a su re s o f m u ltista te
m obility. C o n v e rse ly , th e sm aller th e in te r v a l th e c lo se r is
th e ag reem en t b etw een th e m e a su re s. At th e limit of in s ta n
te o u s o b s e rv a tio n th e r e is only one m easu re of in trin s ic
m obility.
A ge-Tim e O b se rv a tio n Plan

T he final se t o f c o n c e p ts w hich n e e d to b e th o ro u g h ly u n d e r
sto o d b y th e p o p u latio n m odeller c o n c e rn th e ag e -tim e p lan
(A TP) u se d in o b s e rv in g o r m e a su rin g d em ographic v a ria b le s .
T h e re a re fo u r A TPs u su a lly in v o lv e d a n d th e ir n a tu r e is
b e s t e x p la in e d g ra p h ic a lly (F ig u re 1 0 .3 ) u s in g fo u r L exis d ia
gram s (L ex is was th e G erm an d e m o g ra p h e r who in v e n te d th e
d ia g ra m ).
T he d iag ram s h av e ag e a s th e ir v e r tic a l a x is a n d time as
th e ir h o riz o n ta l. T h e y also h a v e , in e f f e c t, a th ir d dim ension
along th e p rin c ip a l d ia g o n a l, th a t of c o h o rt. P e rso n s b o rn in
th e same time in te r v a l move to g e th e r d iag o n ally (a t 45 d e g re e s
if th e ag e a n d time sc a le s a re th e sam e) th r o u g h th e diagram
a s th e y ag e w ith th e p a s s a g e o f tim e. P ro jectio n m odels,
w h e th e r co n c e rn e d w ith th e evolution o f p o p u latio n siz e s o r
th e d u ra tio n o f th e liv e s of th e p o p u la tio n , w ork w ith c o h o rts
e ith e r o b s e rv e d in a p e rio d b etw een two ag e g ro u p s (ATP2 in
F ig u re 10.3) o r o b s e rv e d o v e r two p e rio d s b etw e en two b i r t h
d a y s (ATP3 in F ig u re 1 0 .3 ).
H ow ever, ATP2 is o nly r a r e ly a n d ATP3 is h a rd ly e v e r
u sed to o b s e rv e th e d em o g rap h ic in p u ts to p o p u latio n m odels.
One d a ta se t w hich is c o llected in ATP2 form is th a t of t r a n s
itio n s in c e n su s m ig ratio n ta b le s . T h e se ta b le s r e p o r t
m igration b y age g ro u p a t th e e n d o f th e tim e in te r v a l a n d
th e in itia l a g e g ro u p m ust b e in f e r r e d . Sometimes th is le ad s
to a fa ilu re to m easu re m igration fo r th e f ir s t c o h o rt, th o se
b o rn d u r in g th e tim e in te r v a l. In many c o u n trie s ( b u t n o t th e
UK) c a re is ta k e n to em ploy th e d a te of b ir th o f in d iv id u a ls
e x p e rie n c in g e v e n ts to d o u b ly c la ssify th o s e e v e n ts b y ag e at
time of th e e v e n t an d b y co h o rt of b i r t h . T h is m eans th a t
d a ta a re o b s e rv e d u s in g ATP4 (F ig u re 10.3) w ithin L exis d ia -
295
296 T ab le 1 0 .4: P o p u l a t i o n A ccou nts: S t r u c t u r e and Examples
POPULATION
A. T r a n s i t i o n a c c o u n t s : a l g e b r a i c v a r i a b l e s
F in al s t a t e s
S u r v i v a l a t end i n Death i n i n t e r v a l in
I n itia l sta te s R1 R2 RW R1 R2 RW T otals
MODELLING
e lsl els2 e l so eld l „e ld2 elso
Region i Ke l "
£ae2sl £ae2s2 ae 2 so vae2dl £ae2d2 £ae2do
Region 2 K36 '
jâeosl lâeos2 £a eod l jâeod2 Ka e ° . .
Rest World 0a oa
a a a a a
K e.d l K e .d 2
T o tals K e - 81 K e - S2 K e ‘ S0 K e - d° K e" ‘
a a a a a a a
N otes: K - p e r s o n s ( t r a n s i t i o n s ) ; e “ e x i s t e n c e ; s - s u r v i v a l ; o =■ o u t s i d e w orld
a - age c o h o r t (ATP2)
B. T r a n s i t i o n a c c o u n t s : example f o r South E a s t , 1966-71

F in al s t a te s
S u r v i v a l a t end i n Death i n 1966-71 i n
I n itia l states SE RB RW SE RB RW T otals
E x ist South E a st 98 5.5 92.7 101.8 3 .7 0 .2 0 .2 1184.0

1966 Rest B r i t a i n 9 3 .3 2170.4 112.8 0 .2 8 .4 0 .2 2385.3
R est World 88 .9 77.5 0 0 .2 0 .1 0 166.8
T o tals 1167.8 2340.7 214.6 4.0 8 .7 0 .4 3736.1
N o te s: Age group t r a n s i t i o n : 20-24 to 25-29. A l l f i g u r e s l n 1000s.

S ou rce: Rees 1979.
Table 1 0 .4 : (c o n t in u e d )
C. Movement a c c o u n t s : a l g e b r a i c v a r i a b l e s
S t a t e a f t e r move: D e s t i n a t i o n s Death i n
S t a t e b e f o r e move R1 R2 RW in te rv a l T o tals
O rig in s Region 1 M \2 M 10 Da2\

wa21 _a2 „a20
Region 2 M D p
aOl a02 A .a ,,ao.
R est World M M 0 0 M
a a a
T o tals P A p -2 M -° D • R "
a a a a a
N o tes: P = p o p u l a t i o n ; M = moves; D “ d e a t h s ; R - r e s i d u a l s ; a - age c o h o r t (ATP2) ; o - o u t s i d e world,
D. Movement a c c o u n t s : example f o r G r e a t e r London, 1976-81

S t a t e a f t e r move: D e s t i n a t i o n s 1976-81 Death
S t a t e b e f o r e move GL RUK RW 1976-81 T o tals
POPULATION
G r e a t e r London 254.1 188.9 52.6 1.7 49 7.3
R est o f UK 165.1 3 061.0 136.4 11.3 3373.9
R est o f World 65.9 101.9 0 0 167.8
T o tals 485.1 3351.9 189.0 13.0 4039.0
MODELLING
N o tes: Age group t r a n s i t i o n : 20-24 to 2 5 -2 9. A ll f i g u r e s i n 1000s f o r p e r s o n s .
S o u rce: Rees 1984b.
297
P O P U L A T IO N M ODELLING
ATP 1
p e r io d
Pt
x+2 n
t
age t -V :■ ax*n
• a g e g ro u p
' r
I : ax
L'__:
t t+n
tim e —
ATP2 ATP3
p e r io d p e r io d
Pt °t Pt-fn
x+ 2n •
x * 2n
/
// / //
a x+n / //
/ y_
a ge a x+n
a ge
/
x«-n age g roup x+n
< a g e g ro u p
ax s' b //
' o'
t t+n t+n t+ 2 n
tim e — tim e —
ATP4 p e r io d
Pt p t+ n
x+ 2 n
a x+n
age
/ *___I«
'
x+n a g e g ro u p
. / /A
' •
I " I. ax
t+n
tim e —-
K ey
x e xact age n a g o in te rv a l t ,t + n tim e p o in ts ax a g e g ro u p s ta rtin g at a g e x

Pt p e rio d s ta r tin g a t p o in t t ATP a g e tim e plan
F ig. 10.3 A ge-tim e o b se rv a tio n p la n s .
gram tr ia n g le s ( f o r ex am p le, o fo r th e o ld e r c o h o rt, y fo r th e

y o u n g e r) w hich can b e assem b led in to e ith e r th e ATP2 p a r a l
lelogram s ( e . g . , A) o r th e ATP3 p a ra lle lo g ram s ( e . g . , B ).
In o th e r c o u n trie s (in c lu d in g th e UK) e v e n ts a re c la s
sified only b y age a t time o f th e e v e n t u s in g ATP1 (F ig u re
1 0 .3 ). T h e e v e n t d a ta m ust th e n b e c o n v e rte d to ATP2 o r
ATP3 b y assu m p tio n ( f o r ex am p le, th a t e v e n ts in C a re
eq u iv a le n t to h a lf th o s e in D p lu s h a lf th o s e in C ), o r by
298
deconsolidation firs t to ATP4 followed b y a p p ro p ria te

re -a g g re g a tio n (see Rees and Woods, 1985 fo r e x am p les). The
estim ations involved in th is la tte r p ro c e ss (ATP1 to ATP4,
and hence to ATP2 o r ATP3) a re o ften im proved by ap p ly in g
ra te s d eriv ed from la rg e r sp atial u n its th a t contain th e stu d y
a rea at th e ATP2 o r ATP4 level o f deconsolidation and
co n strain in g th e estim ates to th e o b se rv e d ATP1 c o u n ts (see
R ees, 1984b, section 8.2 for an exam ple).
Lessons
Tn c o n stru c tin g a p ro jectiv e model of a po p u latio n , th e
re s e a rc h e r n eed s to keep in mind th e co n c e p ts th a t have been
d escrib ed in th is section of th e c h a p te r. A cle a r view must be
tak en of th e system b ein g s tu d ie d , its b o u n d arie s an d of th e
p ro c e sse s by which population e n te r s in to and e x its from the
system . T his will be u se fu l even if th e available d a ta a re fa r
from ideal. Most system s can be d e sc rib e d in term s of th e 16
life h isto ry ty p e s o r a re d u c e d se t clearly re la te d to them ,
even if population acco u n ts co v erin g th e whole system a re not
co n stru c te d .
The re s e a rc h e r should a s s e s s which of th e p o ssible cla s
sifications of a population su it h is o r h e r p ro jection problem .
Usually age an d sex will be u se d as many o th e r social p ro
cesses v a ry in fundam ental ways with age and a c ro ss th e
se x e s, alth o u g h in many cases age a c ts only as an interm ed i
ate v ariab le for p a rtic u la r life cycle e v e n ts o r its e ffe c ts are
a tte n tu a te d by c o n tex tu al v a ria b le s su ch as h o using te n u re ,
as C ourgeau (1984) h a s eleg an tly d em o n strated w ith re sp e c t
to m igration. The classificatio n s chosen and th e ir detail will
have a p ro fo u n d effect on model d e sig n .
Knowledge of th e ty p e of tr a n s f e r d ata available is
e ssen tial in model d e sig n . D irect m easurem ent of th e tr a n s
ition p ro b ab ilities fo r d isc re te time in te rv a ls u se d in many
population models is p o ssib le only w ith tra n s itio n d a ta ,
alth o u g h movement d a ta fo r sh o rt time in te rv a ls fo r most
p ro c e sse s will p ro v id e a good approxim ation. C o n v erse ly , only
movement d a ta p ro v id e s d ire c t m easures o f th e num bers of
tra n s f e r s o c c u rrin g - tra n s itio n d a ta will te n d to u n d e r
estim ate th e s e . Last m igration d a ta , a p ro d u c t of a g re a t
many s u rv e y s and c e n s u se s , falls betw een th e tra n sitio n and
movement sto o ls, and is b e s t c o n v e rte d in to th e form er p rio r
to u se in population models.
F inally, it is e sse n tia l t h a t, b efo re an y d ata a re in p u t to
population models, th e re s e a rc h e r th o ro u g h ly u n d e rs ta n d s th e
age-tim e plan involved in it s collection, o r , if s u rv e y o r life
h isto ry d ata for in d iv id u a ls a re u s e d , th e a p p ro p ria te a g e
time plan is employed in p ro d u c in g ta b u la tio n s fo r modelling
w ork.
299
PO P U L A T IO N MODELLING
FUNDAMENTAL MODELS
Most population g e o g ra p h e rs will be fam iliar with th e two most

fre q u e n tly u sed p ro je c tiv e m odels: th e c o h o rt-su rv iv a l model
and th e life tab le o r sta tio n a ry population model. Here
atte n tio n will be d ire c te d a t lin k in g th e se models with th e
concep ts outlin ed in one o r two new w ays.
Population Projections and Life T ables

Projective models involve th e p re d ic tio n of how c o h o rts o f the
population will evolve in size and c h a ra c te ris tic s as th e y age
and move forw ard in tim e, an d how new c o h o rts will be added
to th e e x istin g p o p u latio n . It does not m atter w h e th er the
model is form ulated u sin g th e population co unted in age
g ro u p s at a point in time in ATP2 o r a t e x ac t age p o in ts o v e r
an in te rv a l of time in ATP3. T ra d itio n a lly , th e form er
approach h as been u se d b ecau se of th e availability of p o p
ulation sto ck s from c e n su se s ta k e n at one point in tim e. From
many view points know ledge of th e second kind of p o p u latio n ,
in e ffe c t, an a v e ra g e population for a p e rio d , might be ju s t
as u se fu l, b u t th e population sto c k s would have to be
m easured from population r e g is te r re c o rd s.
A second u se of p ro jectiv e models h as been to m easure
d u ra tio n of life by m aking some assum ptions about th e time
spen t in v a rio u s s ta te s by p e rso n s m aking tra n s itio n s betw een
them . T rad itio n ally , th e se life tab le models have been form ul
ated u sin g ATP3 b ecau se a c tu a rie s have alw ays made th e ir
su rv iv al calculations b ased on a p e rs o n 's ex act ag e . T h e re is
no conceptual reaso n why life ta b le s cannot be developed for
age g ro u p s u sin g ATP2 o r why ex act age life ta b le s cannot be
developed from d ata g a th e re d u s in g ATP2 (alth o u g h Ledent
and R ees, 1980, su g g e s t m ethods fo r doing th is th e y miss th e
full im plications of th e ir tra n s itio n m odels). Age g ro u p life
tab les a re less u se fu l th a n e x a c t age ones b e cau se th e y
averag e o v er su rv iv a l ch an ces w hich v a ry somewhat w ithin an
age g ro u p . S u rviv al ch an ces m easured in th e conventional life
table v a ry with tim e, b u t th is v a ria tio n is le ss m arked.
A G eneral M atrix Framework

Leaving choice of age-tim e p lan to one s id e , d e p en d e n t as it
is on modelling p u rp o se , we prop o se h e re a g en eral form ul
ation fo r m ultistate pro jectio n models th a t in c o rp o ra te s th e
points about system s tr u c tu r e an d ty p e of tr a n s f e r d a ta made
above, b e n e fitin g from e a rlie r w ork b y Stone (1975, C h ap ter
VII) an d more re c e n t w ork b y Willekens and Drewe (1984) and
Keilman (1984) b u t d iffe rin g from all of th e se in sev e ra l
a sp e c ts . A system fram ew ork in term ed iate betw een th a t of
Stone (1975, Table 7 .1 , p . 42 - in e ffe c t, F igure 10.1) and
th a t of Rees and Wilson (1973 - in e ffe c t, Table 10.1) is
300
P O P U L A T I O N M O DELLING
ad o p ted ( c f . T ab le 1 0 .2 ) to r e p r e s e n t th e tra n s itio n (T ab le

10.5) an d movement (T a b le 1 0 .6 ) flows th a t co n n e c t o p e n in g
and c lo sin g p o p u la tio n s to c k s . T h e se ta b le s r e p r e s e n t th e
p ro c e s s e s of t r a n s f e r am ong th e s ta te s w ithin th e sy ste m , of
tr a n s f e r out o f th e sy stem s ta te s th r o u g h d e a th a n d emi
g ra tio n , a n d of t r a n s f e r in to th e sy stem a s a r e s u lt of
im m igration a n d in th e c ase of th e low er h a lf of e ach ta b le
(T a b le s 1 0 .5B , 1 0 .6B) of t r a n s f e r in to th e sy stem th ro u g h
b ir th . A m atrix e x p o sitio n is u se d b e c a u se th a t is th e com
m onest m ethod of p r e s e n ta tio n u se d in th e lit e r a t u r e , a lth o u g h
occasional e x c u rs io n s a r e made in to a lg e b ra ic n o ta tio n w here
a p p ro p ria te .
T h e sym bols in th e two ta b le s h a v e th e follow ing m ean
in g s . T h e d e fin itio n s o f c o rre s p o n d in g elem en ts a re lis te d in
p a ra lle l o r d e r fo r e a s y co m p ariso n . All te rm s in th e f ir s t p a r t
of th e ta b le s (T a b le s 1 0 .5A, 10 .6 A) r e f e r to s to c k s a n d flows
in an ag e c o h o rt (A T P 2 ); all te rm s in th e se co n d p a r t o f th e
ta b le s (T a b le s 1 0 .5B , 1 0 .6B ) r e f e r to th e f ir s t ag e c o h o rt,
labelled o , in v o lv in g th e tr a n s itio n b etw een b ir th a n d th e
f ir s t ag e g ro u p .
T able 10.5 T erm s
a m atrix o f tr a n s itio n s b etw een e x is te n c e a n d s u rv iv a l
s ta te s . P e rs o n s a re c la ssifie d b y s ta te a t th e s t a r t a n d
s ta te a t th e e n d o f th e tim e in te r v a l.
a m atrix o f tr a n s itio n s b etw een e x iste n c e an d d e a th
s ta t e s . P e rs o n s a re c la ssifie d b y s ta te a t th e s t a r t of
th e p e rio d a n d s ta te a t d e a th d u r in g th e in te r v a l.
a column v e c to r of tr a n s itio n s from e x is te n c e s ta te s to
th e o u ts id e w o rld , th a t i s , e m ig ra n ts w h e th e r th e y
s u r v iv e to th e e n d of th e p e rio d o r n o t.
a column v e c to r of in itia l p o p u la tio n s c la ssifie d by
e x is te n c e s ta te a t th e s t a r t o f th e tim e in te r v a l.
a row v e c to r o f tr a n s itio n s from th e o u ts id e w orld to
su rv iv a l s ta te s , o r im m ig ran ts who s u rv iv e th e time
in te rv a l in th e sy ste m o f i n t e r e s t .
a row v e c to r of tr a n s itio n s b e tw e e n th e o u ts id e w orld
an d d e a th s ta te s in th e sy stem o r im m ig ran ts who die
w ithin th e sy stem in th e tim e in te r v a l.
a s c a la r , th e sum o f all im m ig rants to th e sy ste m ,
s u r v iv o r s a n d n o n - s u r v iv o r s .
a row v e c to r of final p o p u la tio n s c la ssifie d b y s u rv iv a l
s ta te s a t th e e n d o f th e tim e in te r v a l.
a row v e c to r of d e a th s , c la ssifie d b y s ta te a t d e a th .
a s c a la r , th e sum of all e m ig ra n ts from th e sy ste m .
a s c a la r , th e to ta l of all tra n s itio n s (p e r s o n s ) in v o lv ed
in th e sy stem o f in t e r e s t.
301
T a b le 1 0 .5 : A Demographic M a t r ix C o n n e c tin g Opening and C l o s i n g P o p u l a t i o n S to c k s i n a Time I n t e r v a l
Using T r a n s i t i o n D ata
A. F o r e x i s t i n g c o h o r t s (ATP2)
F in a l s t a te s T o tals
I n s i d e sy s te m O u t s i d e sy s tem ( o p e n in g
S u r v i v a l a t end D eath i n i n t e r v a l (em ig ra tio n ) sto ck s)
I n itia l sta te s (s) (d) (o) (•)
Insid e E x isten ce
ed
sy s tem at sta rt (e)
O u ts i d e (im m igration)
od
sy s te m (o )
3.d
T o tals (clo sin g sto ck s) (.)
N ote: a i s t h e age c o h o r t l a b e l (ATP2); a > 1

B. Fo r t h e I n f a n t C o h o r t s (ATP2)
F in a l s t a t e s T o tals
I n s i d e sy stem O u tsid e system (o p e n i n g
S u r v i v a l a t end D e a th i n i n t e r v a l (e m ig ra tio n ) sto ck s)
In itia l sta te s (s) (d) (o ) (.)
In sid e B irth in
bs bd bo
system in te rv a l (o)
O u tsid e (im m ig ratio n )
od
s y s te m (o)
i° ° '
T o ta ls (clo sin g sto ck s) (.) V °
POPULATION
V a r i a b l e s - K: a m a t r i x v a r i a b l e ; k : a v e c t o r v a r i a b l e ; k: a s c a l a r v a r i a b l e .
S u b s c r i p t s - a : r e f e r s t o t r a n s i t i o n s t a k i n g p l a c e b e tw e e n an a g e g r o u p a x a t ti m e t and t h e n e x t ,
a x+n, a t ti m e t + n , w h e re n i s b o t h t h e ag e and ti m e i n t e r v a l ( s e e F i g u r e 1 0 . 3 , ATP2, a r e a A ).
0 : r e f e r s t o t r a n s i t i o n s t a k i n g p l a c e b e tw e e n b i r t h , o r ag e 0 , d u r i n g a ti m e i n t e r v a l and t h e f i r s t
ag e g r o u p , a ^ , a t ti m e t + n .
S u p e r s c r i p t s i d e n t i f y s u b m a t r i c e s by l i f e s t a t e c o m b i n a t i o n .
MODELLING
303
T a b le 1 0 .6 : A Demographic M a t r i x C o n n e c tin g Opening and C l o s i n g P o p u l a t i o n S to c k s i n a Time P e r i o d
POPULATION
304
U sing Movement Data
A. F o r e x i s t i n g c o h o r t s (ATP2)
D e stin a tio n s ta te s T o tals
I n s i d e sy s te m O u t s i d e sy s te m (o p e n in g
MODELLING
O rig in s t a t e s D e stin a tio n s D eath (em ig ra tio n s) sto ck s)
I
I n s i d e sy s te m O rig in s M d e
a a a Pa
O u t s i d e sy s te m ( i m m i g r a t i o n s ) â 0 0 i
a
T o tals (c lo sin g sto ck s) P d e t
r aF a a a
N o te: a i s t h e age g ro up l a b e l (ATP2); a > 1.
B. For i n f a n t c o h o r t s (ATP2)
D estin atio n s t a te s T o tals
I n s i d e sy s te m O u t s i d e sy s te m (o p e n in g
O rig in s t a t e s D estin atio n s D eath (em ig ra tio n s) sto ck s)
I n s i d e sy s te m O rigins M b
o do *0
O u t s i d e sy s te m ( I m m i g r a t i o n s ) *0 0 0
10
T o tals (c lo sin g sto ck s)
d0 eo eo
V a r i a b l e s - M: m a t r i x v a r i a b l e ; d : v e c t o r v a r i a b l e ; i : a s c a l a r v a r i a b l e .
S u b s c r i p t s - a r e f e r s t o movements t a k i n g p l a c e a t age b etw een an age g ro u p a a t ti m e t and t h e n e x t ,
®x+n* a t tim e t + n , w here n i s b o t h t h e age and tim e i n t e r v a l ( s e e F i g u r e 1 0 . 3 , ATP2, a r e a A).
0 r e f e r s t o movements t a k i n g p l a c e b e tw een b i r t h , o r age 0 , d u r i n g a tim e I n t e r v a l and t h e f i r s t age
g r o u p , a ^ , a t tim e t + n .
T able 10.6 term s

Mfl a m atrix o i moves betw een o rig in and d estin atio n
s ta te s . Moves a re classified b y s ta te befo re th e move
an d s ta te a f te r th e move.
d a column v e c to r of d e a th s classified b y o rig in s ta te ,
th e sta te which a p e rso n leaves on d y in g .
e a column v e c to r o f em igrations classified b y o rig in
s ta te , th e s ta te a p e rso n leaves on e m ig ratin g .
P a I a column v e c to r of in itial p o p u latio n s classified by
o rig in sta te at th e s ta r t of th e time in te rv a l.
i a row v e c to r of im m igrations classified by d e stin a tio n
s ta te , th e s ta te a p e rso n e n te r s on im m igration.
i a s c a la r, th e sum of all im m igrations in to th e sy stem .
p F a row v e c to r of final p o p u la tio n s, classified by d e s tin
ation s ta te at th e en d of th e time in te rv a l.
ea a sc a la r, th e sum o f all em igrations from th e system .
t a sc a la r, th e to tal o f all moves in v o lv in g th e system of
in te r e s t.
T he term s fo r th e in fa n t co h o rt are all e q u iv a le n t,
excep t th a t b ir th s ta te s a re s u b s titu te d fo r e x isten c e
s ta te s and o p en in g sto c k s:
kQb a column v e c to r of to ta l b ir th s classified b y s ta te at
b ir th , summed o v e r m others' a g e s a t m aternity (T able
10.5B te rm ).
b a column v e c to r of b ir th s classified by o rig in s ta te at
b ir th , summed o v e r m others' a g es a t m ate rn ity .
Note th a t, a p a rt from th e o p en in g a n d closing population

sto c k s, also d ire c tly e q u iv alen t a re th e two d e a th s v e c to rs ,
ka -d an d d a , alth o u g h th e y a p p e a r in d iffe re n t locations in
th e tra n sitio n and movement acc o u n ts ta b le s .
A Projection Model
Given th e se d e fin itio n s, we can now develop population p ro
jection models in c o rp o ra tin g outflow co efficien ts th a t "su rv iv e "
initial population sto ck s fo r both tra n s itio n an d movement
cases. S u rv iv al eq u atio n s a re needed fo r b o th e x istin g and
infan t c o h o rts, and a fe rtility model is n eed ed to g e n e ra te th e
opening sto ck s ( b ir th s ) of th e in fa n t co h ort from th e p o p u
lations at ris k in th e e x istin g c o h o rt. T he models a re
specified with exogeneous in p u ts (im m igrants o r immi
g ra tio n s) .
The closing population sto ck s a re given b y , in th e tr a n
sition c ase,
305
POPULATIO N MODELLING
k a ' s = 1 Kge s + k a os ( 1 0 .1)
k o ,s = l K0bS + Hobs ( 10. 2)
and in th e movement case by

pa ( t + l ) = 1 Ma + i a (1 0 .3 )
P0 (t +1) ( 1 0 . A)
where 1 is a row v e c to r of o n es.

To link closing population sto c k s to initial we need to
define outflow co efficien ts. In th e tra n s itio n case each elem ent
in th e K es m atrix is d iv id ed b y its c o rre sp o n d in g row to ta l,
initial populations for e x is tin g c o h o rts
C es (k-e-)-1 Kaes (1 0 .5 )
~a
and fo r th e in fan t c o h o rts, b ir th s
( 10. 6 )
9abS = (bob ->_1 ?obS
where th e circum flex in d ic a te s th a t th e column v e c to rs have
been sp re a d out to form a diagonal m atrix so th a t, for
exam ple.
(k /-)-1 1
(1 0 .7 )
1 Kae l -
i
i 0
K e2..
a
Kaen -
The outflow co efficients from th e Table 1 0 .4B exam ple would
b e , for in s ta n c e , 98.5/1184.0 o r .832 for th e flow of s u r
v iv in g s ta y e rs w ithin th e South E ast region and 92.7/1184.0
or .078 for m igrants (s u rv iv in g ) from th e South E ast to th e
R est of B rita in . T hese coefficien ts a re tra n sitio n p ro b a b ilitie s.
If th e Kaes and Ka m atrices in eq u atio n s (1 0 .1 ) and
(10.2) are s u b s titu te d fo r by e x p re ssio n s d e riv e d from
equations (10.5) and (10.6) re s p e c tiv e ly , we obtain p ro jection
equatio n s fo r th e closing population sto ck s in e x istin g co h o rts
ka ' S = I b a e ‘ Ça e s ♦ k a °s
= k , e - ’ C e s + k os (10.8)
JUG
and for th e in fa n t cohort

k0 ‘s = I >50b - ?0bs + >50os
* bob - ’ 5obs + >50os (10' 9)

where th e prime in d ic a te s tra n sp o sitio n m aking row v e c to rs of
initial populations o r b ir th s to ta ls.
Outflow coefficients com puted by d iv id in g th e flow term
by th e initial population a re a p p ro p ria te fo r th e tra n sitio n
case becau se only the in itial population c o n trib u te s to the
flow. In th e movement c a se , how ever, th e c o n trib u tin g p o p
ulations a re more v a rie d : a m igration in th e 1976-81 period
from G reater London to th e R est o f th e UK could be made by
a p e rso n in th e G reater London population in 1976, o r by a
p e rso n who was in a n o th e r region initially and who m igrated
to G reater London. The p ro p e r population at risk is th e
averag e population o v er th e p e rio d . Normally, an arithm etic
averag e population is a d o p ted with th e assum ption th a t the
population ta k e s a lin e a r p a th betw een s ta r t and end of th e
time in te rv a l.
The outflow co efficients in th e movement case a r e , usin g
algebraic notation of Table 1 0 .4C,
ma i j = Ma i j / . 5 (Pa i - + P a - i )
ma i o = Ma i ° / . 5 (Pa i - + Pa - i )
da i = Da i / . 5 (P a i - + Pa - i ) (10.10)
where lower case le tte r s a re u se d fo r th ese

o c c u rre n c e -e x p o su re ra te s of in te r - s ta te movement w ithin th e
system , of em igration to th e o u tsid e w orld, and of d e a th .
These ra te s cannot be u se d d ire c tly in th e p rojection
equations becau se th e ra te denom inators a re not th e initial
populations.
D raw ing on d e riv a tio n s by R ogers and L edent (1976),
Willekens and R ogers (1978), Rees (1983b), Willekens and
Drewe (1984) and Keilman (1984), th is problem can be solved
in th e following way. F ir s t, we u se a lg eb raic notation and
th en g en eralise th is re s u lt to a m atrix e q u a tio n . T he closing
population sto ck s in an age g ro u p (ATP2) a re given by
V * = pa i- ■ ( 1 Ma i j + V + Ma io)
+ £ M j i + M,oi (10.11)
■j •
S u b stitu tin g fo r th e in te rn a l m igration, d e a th s an d em igration

term s from ex p re ssio n s d e riv e d from eq u atio n set (1 0 .1 0 ), we
307
PO PULATIO N MODELLING
obtain
P*-1 = V ' ( E ma 1J + da 1 + ma io ) ( .5 ( P a1- + Pa - i)

j«
+ Z ma j i ( . 5 (Pa j • + Pa - J ) + Ma 01 (1 0.1 2)
j^ i
which is re p e a te d fo r all s ta te s i = 1 to N.
T hese N eq u atio n s can be re w ritte n in m atrix form ,
u sin g th e n otation of Table 10.6
/ ’ - C! + -5 «a11' 1 C! - -S Ma] Ea1

♦ [ I ♦ .5 Ma ] " l i a (10.13)
where Ma is d efin ed as
( .4l
I m_lj + da 1 + m a 1°) -Ina2^ nl
a
-m 12 ( £ m 2j + d ^ + m.ô) . . . -m n2
d o d d d
j*2
-ma,ln -m„2na ( £ manj + dan + mano)

j^n
T h en , if we define th e m atrix S a th u s
Sa = Cl + .5 Ma ]_1 [ I - .5 Ma] (10.15)
then th e population p ro jectio n model of eq u atio n (10.13) may

be w ritten
?aF ' = ?a Pa' + '5 [ï + §a3 ¿a

(10.16)
The S m atrix is th e m atrix of outflow coefficients th a t tr a n s

form th e in itial o r o p en in g sto c k s in to th e fin al. Both
Willekens and Drewe (1984) an d Keilman (1984) in te rp re t th e se
coefficients as
"p e rio d -c o h o rt tra n sitio n p r o b a b ilitie s ... th a t a

p e r s o n ... classified in s ta tu s i at time t will
's u rv iv e ' u n til t + 1 ... an d at th a t time will occupy
s ta tu s j ." [Keilman, 1984, p . 11].
308
T here a re se v e ra l a rg u m en ts a g a in st th is view (see R ees,

1985, fo r a detailed case) b u t th e most fu ndam ental is th a t no
amount of m athem atical m anipulation will c o n v e rt movement
ra te s into tra n s itio n p ro b a b ilitie s u n le ss inform ation on th e
relationship of moves to tra n s itio n s is in tro d u c e d .
For th e in fa n t cohort (th o se b o rn in th e time in te rv a l)
the movement r a te s a re d efin ed as
diq'-j = Mq ^-J / . 5 (B 1 + P g - 1)
mQi o = MQi ° / . 5 (B i + pQ- i )
(10.16)
V = v 7-5 (B/ + v i}
where B 1 r e fe rs to b ir th s in region i (summed o v e r all ages

of m o th er). D efining Mg in th e same way a s Ma , we o b tain th e
system of projection eq u atio n s fo r th e in fan t cohort
Pn' ( t + 1 )
CO
= Cl + .5 ~U
M - ] " 1 [ I - .5 M ] b
-a
+ [ I + .5 M
-a
] -1 ~o
i
“ §0 fe. + .5 Cl + SQ] i 0 (10.17)
Willekens an d Drewe (1984) and Keilman (1984) have d iffe re n t

equ atio n s for th e in fa n t cohort in which th e population a t risk
for o c c u rre n c e -e x p o su re ra te s a re in c o n siste n tly d e fin e d .
M odifications of th e equation s e ts fo r e x istin g co h o rts a
= 1 to A a re su g g e s te d fo r th e la s t, th e A th, by Willekens
and Drewe (1984) an d Keilman (1984). In fa c t, su ch modifi
cations a re u n n e c e ssa ry if th e adju stm en t (a d d in g to g e th e r
th e final p opulations of th e A - lth an d A th c o h o rt) is p o st
poned u n til th e co n v ersio n of final p o p u lations fo r one period
into th e in itial p o p u latio n s of th e n e x t. In th e tra n sitio n case
th is is accom plished th u s , a tta c h in g time in te rv a l labels to th e
initial an d final p opulations (q is th e c u r r e n t p e rio d , q-1 the
prev io u s p erio d )
k ^ ' i q ) = k0 ‘S( q - l ) ' fo r age group 1
k ae '( q ) = ka_ 1' S( q - l ) ' fo r age groups 2 to A-I

and for th e la st age g ro u p A
’ (q) = lsA. 1*S(q-1)1 + kA-s(q-ir (10.18)

and in th e movement case
309
P O PUL AT IO N MODELLING
X p
P , (q )
~ cl
= -p„
.3
,1 ( q - 1 ) ' f o r age g r o u p s 2 t o A -l
and fo r th e last age g ro u p A
P .1 « ) = PA- i F ( ' i - 1>' + P

a V » (10.1 9)
Initial populatio ns fo r th e new p erio d in th e last age cohort A

are given by a d d in g to g e th e r th e p ro jectio n s of th e la st
cohort and th e la st b u t one: fo r exam ple, th e population th a t
su rv iv e s from 85+ to 90+ to g e th e r w ith th a t which su rv iv e s
from 80-84 to 85-89 make u p th e in itial population fo r the
nex t p erio d of th e 85 an d o v e r age g ro u p .
T he final ste p in th e p ro jectio n model is to in s e rt
betw een th e e x istin g cohort an d in fa n t cohort projection
equatio n s a se t of eq u atio n s for g e n e ra tin g th e b ir th s to tals
th a t e n te r th e in fa n t cohort p ro jectio n . T he initial sto ck s for
th e in fa n t cohort a re norm ally th e sum of b ir th s to m others of
d iffe re n t ag es o v er th e fe rtile age ra n g e , th a t is ,
b. a? u
I kQ (a ) ( 10. 20)
-0
a=V
a2
I b (a) (10. 21)
a=a.
where (a) r e fe rs to th e age of m other (A T P 2).

In th e projection model b ased on tra n sitio n d a ta , th e
next ste p is to make th e b ir th s a function of th e initial
pop u latio n s, ju s t as th e e x is t-s u rv iv e tra n s itio n s w ere so
made. This assum es th a t th e b ir th s a re classified by initial
location of p a re n t o r m other. T his assum ption can be d ro p p ed
la te r. F ertility ra te s can be defined as
Fa = ‘'a 6 ' " ' W"(a> (10-22>

th a t is , b irth s divided by th e in itial p o p u la tio n s, w here Fa is
a diagonal m atrix w ith fe rtility ra te s on th e p rin cip al
diagonal. U n fo rtu n a te ly , v e ry few system s of re c o rd in g vital
ev e n ts classify b irth s b y m o th er's p re v io u s life h isto ry and it
would be d ifficu lt to do so. F e rtility ra te s must be defin ed by
div id in g by th e a v e ra g e population in th e same fashion as th e
movement projection model. In d iv id u al ie rtility ra te s a re
defined in th e tra n s itio n case as
310
f 1 = K b l" / . 5 (K 61 + K ‘'sl) ( 1 0 .2 3 )
3 3 a a
and in th e movement case as
f 1 = B 1/.5 (P 1- + P - 1 ) ( 1 0 .2 4 )
3 3l 3 3
The population at ris k (PA R ), e x p re s s e d as a column v e c to r,

usin g th e lin ear assu m p tio n , a re re sp e c tiv e ly in th e tra n sitio n
case
PAR
~ a = .5 [k- a ' S ' + k- a e ‘ ]
+ k e *i
~a ~a -a -a
= .5 Cl + C e s , D k e *+ .5 k OS (1 0 .2 5 )
~a -a -a
and in th e movement case
PAR = .5 [p * ' + p *]
a „a ~a
= .5 CCS p +-a.5 Cl~a
+ i.a S] i ] + p
~a Ca -
= .5 [I + S p X] + .25 [ I + S ] i ( 1 0 .2 6 )
- ~a „a — -a "a
T h en , if a female dominant fe rtility model is ad o p te d , b irth s

are g e n e ra te d , summed an d sex ed th u s
kQb ‘ X = z x I2 Fa PARa f ( 1 0 .2 7 )
a = a.
bX = zX i2 PARa f (1 0 .2 8 )
a=al ~
where a s u p e rs c rip t f r e f e r s to th e female population a t r is k ,

w here Fa is a diagonal m atrix of fe rtility ra te s defined as in
equations (10.23) o r (1 0 .2 4 ), zx is th e p ro p o rtio n o f all
b irth s of sex x , and a, and a 2 a re th e y o u n g est and oldest
fertile co h o rts re sp e c tiv e ly . T he b ir th to ta ls a re e n te re d in
equatio n s (10.9) and (10.17) re sp e c tiv e ly to obtain th e s u r
vived population in th e fir s t age g ro u p b y system s ta te s at
th e end of th e time in te rv a l.
The projection models a re im plem ented by re c u rsio n o v e r
successive time p e rio d s u sin g e ith e r fixed coefficients and
immigration v e c to rs (sta b ility an aly sis - a s ex p lo red by
A lexander, 1983) o r v ariab le coefficien ts and im migration
v e c to rs.
311
SIMPLIFICATIONS AND COMPLICATIONS
Some b r ie f re m a rk s a re made in th is co n clu d in g sectio n on

some o f th e p ro b lem s faced in im plem enting th e p ro je c tio n
models an d some o f th e so lu tio n s s u g g e s te d .
F lexible Models
In th e p re v io u s se c tio n a m atrix re p re s e n ta tio n o f p o p u latio n
p ro je c tio n m odels was u s e d a s th is is th e com m onest m ethod o f
e x p o sitio n u s e d . H ow ever, th e m atrix model h a s a r a t h e r rig id
s tr u c tu r e fo r many p u r p o s e s , an d an a lte rn a tiv e is to d evelop
a more flex ib le m odelling sy stem tie d to su ita b le so ftw a re . Full
d e ta ils of th e m odelling sy stem a re g iv e n in R ees (1981) fo r
tra n s itio n m odels a n d R ees (1984b) fo r movement m odels. A
b rie f s k e tc h o f th e p rin c ip le s u n d e rly in g th e s e m odelling
sy ste m s is g iv en h e re .
T h e b a sic id e a is to e stim ate each of th e com ponents of
th e a c c o u n ts m atrices (th e in d iv id u a l c ells in T ab le s 10.5 a n d
10.6) s e p a r a te ly , a n d to p ro v id e a s e t o f fo u r ch o ices fo r
each com ponent. T he f ir s t choice is to e n te r flow o r sto c k
d a ta fo r th e co m ponent. T h e se c o n d cho ice is to u se th e flow
o r sto c k d a ta o f th e p re v io u s m odelling p e rio d . T h e th ir d
choice is to e n te r r a te d a ta fo r th e com ponent along w ith a
choice o f a p p ro p ria te p o p u la tio n a t r is k (in itia l o r fin al p o p u
la tio n s , a v e ra g e p o p u la tio n s o r m u ltista te p o p u la tio n s a t r i s k ) .
T he fo u rth choice is to employ th e r a te d a ta fo r th e p re v io u s
p e rio d . T h e re a re also some o th e r ch o ic es w hich e n ab le th e
r e s e a r c h e r to choose b e tw e e n tra n sm issio n m odels (all th o s e in
th e p re v io u s se c tio n a re tra n s m is s io n m odels) a n d adm ission
m odels, a n d b etw een v a rio u s m ethods of a d ju s tin g th e
a c c o u n ts m a tric e s to e n s u r e c o n s is te n c y .
With s u c h m odelling sy ste m s it is p o ssib le to e x p lo re a
v a rie ty of p o ssib le w ays o f clo sin g th e sy stem a n d o f e stim a t
in g th e b a se p e rio d a c c o u n ts m a tric e s (R e e s, 1983b). Many
d iffe re n t k in d s of d a ta can be u s e d .
D ealing w ith a L arg e S ta te -S p a c e

T h e p r e s e n ta tio n above d e lib e ra te ly did not sp e c ify w hat
s ta te s w ere u s e d to c la s sify th e p o p u la tio n w ithin th e sy stem
in o r d e r to re ta in g e n e ra l re le v a n c e . H ow ever, a s w as p o in te d
out e a r lie r , a d o p tio n o f more th a n one o r two dim ensions in
th e c lassificatio n le a d s to d iffic u ltie s of u n re lia b le , s p a r s e
m a tric e s.
T h re e a p p ro a c h e s to th is problem can be id e n tifie d : th e
f ir s t is to decom pose o r a g g re g a te th e sy ste m s p a tia lly , th e
second is to s u b s titu te r a t e s g e n e ra te d from p a ra m e te riz e d
models fo r a s many o f th e model co m ponents as p o s s ib le , a n d
th e th ir d is to r e s tr u c t u r e th e m odels a s m icrosim ulation
m oaels at th e in d iv id u a l scale u s in g lin k e d c h a in s of p r o b -
312
ability eq u atio n s re la tin g selected s e ts o f c h a ra c te ris tic s fo r

an application.
For exam ple, R og ers (1976) h a s shown th a t a set of
models invo lv in g a region an d th e r e s t o f th e c o u n try p ro v id e
a good approxim ation of th e re s u lts of a m ultiregional cohort
su rv iv al model. M asser (1976) h as show n th a t h ierarch ical
models of m igration c a p tu re most d etail along w ith th e g ro s s e r
in te rre g io n a l flows.
R ogers h as re c e n tly sum m arised h is e x te n siv e work on
modelling sch ed u les of age classified m ig ration, fe rtility , fir s t
m arriage and divorce in an illu s tra tiv e p ro jectio n fo r a two
reg io n -fo u r m arital s ta tu s e s system fo r Sw eden (R o g e rs and
Planck, 1984). Work on th e application of sp atial in te ra c tio n
models in which flows a re re p re s e n te d b y a sim pler se t of
orig in and d estin atio n term s and cost fu n ctio n s con tin u es
apace (L e d e n t, 1981, 1985; Stillw ell, 1983) to g e th e r with work
on re la te d estim ation, sta tis tic a l an d lo g -lin e a r models
(W illekens, 1982, 1983a, 1983b). T he in te g ra tio n of su ch
models in a m ultistate p rojection fram ew ork h a s still to be
accom plished.
Microsimulation m ethods (C la rk e , K eys an d Williams,
1981) have g re a t p o ten tial in en ab lin g r e s e a r c h e rs to deal
with household form ation, tra n s itio n an d dissolution more
effectively (C la rk e , 1985) as th e com plicated ev en t seq u en ces
and in te ra c tio n s a re not co n v en ien tly r e p re s e n te d in
ag g re g a te models of th e ty p e o u tlin e d . Microsimulation
m ethods a re also likely to be u se fu l in solving a problem of
classification p e c u lia r to system s in which an in d iv id u a l's
c h a ra c te ris tic s a re in h e rite d . An exam ple would be th e eth n ic
in term ix tu re th a t re s u lts from c ro s s -e th n ic m arriage and
fe rtility : in th e o ry , th e possib le com binations s q u a re with
each g e n e ra tio n , and to date th e problem h as been avoided in
eth n ic population models (see Im migrant S ta tistic s U nit, 1979;
and Ram an d R ee, 1985 for a d isc u ssio n ).
Demography is not enough

As Stone (1975) makes v e ry clear in h is rev iew , dem ographic
v ariab les alone a re in su ffic ie n t for a p ro p e r u n d e rs ta n d in g of
planned sy stem s. Population models m erely su p p ly possible
p a rtic ip a n ts in sy stem s; th e decision m akers co n tro l th e
activ ities and a new class of models n e e d s to be u se d th a t
look at th e co sts of a c tiv itie s an d su p p ly -d em an d rela tio n
sh ip s.
Concluding Rem arks

A lthough th is c h a p te r ta k e s a p a rtia l view of population
models, th e co n cep ts d isc u sse d an d th e models ex p la in ed do
have consid erab le v alu e. It was shown th a t it would be
perilo u s to em bark on any ex e rc ise in population modelling
313
w ithout a c le a r idea of th e n a tu re of th e system b ein g model

led an d th e k in d of population s ta te s o r classifications
n e c e ssa ry fo r th e problem in h a n d . It would also be d a n g e r
ous not to give ca re fu l co n sid eratio n to th e ty p e of tr a n s f e r
d ata th a t could be collected fo r th e system u n d e r s tu d y . It
was dem o n strated th a t population models have to be designed
with th e c h a ra c te ris tic s of th e tr a n s f e r d ata b e in g u se d firmly
in mind. If th e se lesso n s a re app lied in th e r e a d e r's fu tu re
w ork, th e n th e m istakes made by p ra c titio n e rs in th e co u rse
of a rriv in g at th e u n d e rs ta n d in g s em bodied in th is c h a p te r
will not have been made in v ain .
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M ulti-Dimensional Population Projection M odels'. Working
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L edent, J . (1980) 'M ultistate Life T ab les: Movement V ersus
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12, 533-562
L ed en t, J . (1981) 'O n th e R elationship betw een Alonso's
T heory of Movement and Wilson's Family of S patial I n te r
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217-224
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A n aly sis, L a x e n b u rg , A u stria
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POPULATION MODELLING
Masser, I. (1976) 'T he Design of Spatial S y stem s for In te rn a l

Migration A n aly sis', Regional S t u d i e s , 10, 39-52
Ram, S. a n d R ees, P .H . (1985) A Spatial Demographic
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A ccounting A p p ro a c h ', Sistemi U r b a n i, 1^ 3-32
R ees, P .H . (1981) A ccounts B ased Models fo r Multiregional
Population A nalysis: M ethods, P rogram and U ser's
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of G eo g rap h y , U n iv ers ity of Leeds
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Themes an d I s s u e s ' , E nvironm ent a nd P lanning A , 15,
1571-1583
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Data you Use in a Population Model?' Working P a p e r 383,
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Leeds
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P op ula tion s', in R . I . Woods and P .H . Rees ( e d s . ) ,
Population S t r u c t u r e an d Models, G eorge Allen and
Unwin, London
R ees, P .H . an d Wilson, A .G . (1973) 'A c cou nts a n d Models for
Spatial Population A n alysis. 1: A g g re g a te P op ula tion ',
Environment a n d P la n n i n g , 5, 61-90
Rogers"! A"! (1976) 'S h r i n k in g L arge-S cale Population Projec
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Rogers^ A. a n d L ed en t, J . (1976) 'In c re m e n t-D e c re m e n t Life
T ab les: A Comment', D em o g rap h y , 13, 287-290
R o gers, A. an d P lanck , F. (1984) P aram eterized Multistate
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Program', In s tit u te of B ehavioral Science , U n iv e rs ity of
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Stillwell, J . C . H . (1983) 'Migration betw een Metropolitan a n d
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S tone, R. (1971) D em ographic A ccounting and Model B u ild in g ,

OECD, P aris
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Willekens, F. (1982) 'M ultidim ensional P opulation A nalysis with
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M ultidimensional M athematical D em ography, Academic
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Willekens, F. (1983a) 'S pecification and C alibration o f Spatial
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Sociale G eog rafie, 74, 239-252
Willekens, Fi (1983b) 'L o g -L in ear Modelling of Spatial I n te r
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187-205
Willekens, F. an d B a y d a r, N. (1983) 'F o re c a stin g P lace-to -
Place M igration with G eneralized L inear Models (GLM) -
An A pplication to U rbanization in th e N e th e rla n d s'.
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S tru c tu re an d M odels, George Allen an d Unwin, London
Willekens, F. and D rew e, P. (1984) 'A M ultiregional Model for
Regional D em ographic Projection' in H. T e r Heide and F.
Willekens ( e d s . ) , D em ographic R esearch and Spatial
P olicy, Academic P re s s , L ondon, p p . 309-334
W illekens, F. and R o g ers, A. (1978) Spatial Population
A nalysis: M ethods and C om puter P ro g ra m s, R esearch
R eport RR-V6-18, In te rn a tio n a l In s titu te fo r A pplied
System s A naly sis, L a x e n b u rg , A u stria
316
NOTES ON CONTRIBUTORS
Dr M. Cadwallader, Department of Geography, University of

Wisconsin, Madison, USA
Dr J. Coward, Department of Geography, University of
Ulster, Northern Ireland
Dr P.H. Curson, School of Earth Sciences, Macquarie
University, Australia
Dr J . C . Dewdney, Department of Geography, University of
Durham, England
Dr A .J. Fielding, Department of Geography, University of
S u s s e x , England
Professor J. Gugler, Department of Sociology, University of
Connecticut, USA
Dr M. Pacione, Department of Geography, University of
S tra thclyd e, Glasgow , Scotland
Dr P. Rees, School of Geography, University of Leeds,
England
Professor D. Rhind, Department of Geography, Birkbeck
College, University of London, England
Dr J. Salt, Department of Geography, University College
London, England
Mr I. Thomas, School of Development Studies, University of
East Anglia, Norwich, England
Dr R .I. Woods, Department of Geography, University of
Sheffield, England
317
INDEX
A bortion Act 1967 138, 139 ch a in m ig ra tio n 204

a g e -s ta n d a rd is e d f e r tility 4 child m o rtality 5 , 23
ag e-tim e p la n 11, 12, 195-9, see also in fa n t m ortality
298, 300 c irc u la r m ig ratio n 8 , 214, 215
a ir po llu tio n 121, 123 C oale’s in d ic e s 83, 88
a n ti- n a ta lis t 138 co h a b ita tio n 70, 77
Arima 263 co h o rt s u r v iv a l 12, 293, 300
A ru sh a d e c la ra tio n 202 Commonwealth Im m igrants Act
a u to re g re s s iv e m odels 10, 1962 138, 139
263, 264 Commonwealth Im m igrants Act
1968 138
behavio u ralism 2 , 28 c o n fid e n tia lity 2 , 39, 40, 55
bio-so cial d a ta 121 conjoint m easurem ent model
b ir th c o n tro l 23, 147 269, 275
B ra n d t R ep o rt 62 c o u n te ru rb a n is a tio n 9, 151,
B ritish S ociety of Population 224-57
S tu d ie s 146
c a n c e rs 109, 110, 118, 119, d e a th c e rtific a tio n 108

121, 123-4 d e g e n e ra tiv e d is e a s e s 109,
can n o n ical c o rre la tio n a n a ly sis 1 2 0 , 121
10, 201, 206 d em o g rap h ic a c c o u n ts 11
c a re e r p a th 180 d em o g rap hic g e o g ra p h y 16
c a rry in g c a p a c ity 14 d em o g rap h ic tra n s itio n th e o ry
ce n su s 26, 35-57, 138, 145, 1, 21, 2 4 -6, 6 1 -4 , 150
223, 295 d em o g rap h y 1, 13, 16, 17,
-in fo rm atio n 60 26, 31
- r e s u lts 229 se e also h isto ric a l
- s o u r c e s 59 d em o g rap h y
- v a ria b le s 125 D ep artm en t o f th e
C e n su s Act 1840 48 E n v iro nm ent 145
C en su s Act 1880 48 D e p a rtm e n t o f H ealth a n d
C en su s Act 1920 39, 55 Social S e c u rity 144
C en su s fe rtility r e p o r ts 70 d iffu sio n th e o r y 60
c e n s u s t r a c t s 3 , 48, 50, 53 d ire c tio n a l b ia s 258, 271
c e n tra l p lace th e o ry 20, 21 d is ta n c e d e cay 169, 258, 264
319
D istrib u tio n of I n d u s try Act h isto ric a l m aterialism 61
1945 138 Hoover in d ex of c o n cen tratio n
230
ecological fallacy 24 hum an cap ital th eo ry 264, 265
economic b ase 227 humanism 2, 28
elim in atio n -b y -asp ects model
276 illegitim acy 68, 83, 84, 88
empiricism 1, 18, 26 im m igration 38, 53, 172, 173,
Employment Development 175, 311
Board 171 -c o n tro ls 6, 218
e n e rg y c risis 9 -le g isla tio n 138, 139
e n tro p y maximising models 272 -policy 150
enum eration d is tric t 2, 37-8, Imm igration Act 1971 138, 139
40-1, 46, 50, 52 im m unisation 99, 103, 106
environm ental s tr e s s 19 in d e p e n d e n c e 201, 205, 207,
epidemiologic tra n sitio n model 208
118 in d u s tria l re s e rv e arm y 29
eq u ifin ality 24 in fa n t m ortality 64, 65, 97-119
ex ten d ed family 204, 210, passim 150, 201, 202
213, 215, 216 in fectio u s d isease 105 , 109,
ex tra -m a rita l fe rtility 75, 77, 124
80, 83, 84 see also w a te r-b o rn e
d ise a se s
family b ro k e ra g e 210 inform ation field s 22
family p lan n in g 3, 6, 90, 64, inform ation in te g ra tio n th e o ry
67, 132-55 passim 275
feminism 4, 90 in te rn a l la b o u r m arkets (ILM)
fe rtility 1, 16, 24, 29, 37, 181
95-6 in te rn a l m igration 7 -8 , 39,
-b e h a v io u r 137, 138 194-223, 224-5, 233, 307
-d iffe re n tia ls 4 in te rn a tio n a l m igration 6, 7,
-lev els 6, 138, 144, 148 164-93
-r a te s 310 In te rn a tio n a l P a sse n g e r
- p a tte r n s 14, 22, 27, 30, S u rv e y 177
58-94 in te r-re g io n a l m igration 10,
-s tu d ie s 3 257-70
see also m arital fe rtility in te rv e n in g o p p o rtu n itie s 169
fe rtility tra n s itio n 25 in tr a - u r b a n mobility 270-7
field th e o ry 10, 261 ischaem ic h e a rt d ise ase 97,
FOSDIC (Film O ptical S en sin g 118, 119
Device fo r In p u t to
C om puters) 3, 48, 49 K hym er Rouge 188
Koran 64
G eneral Household S u rv e y 60
g ra n d th e o ry 1, 24 lan d ow n ership 201, 243
g ra v ity models 168, 169, 177, laten cy 120
258, 259 latifu n d io s 201
g reen alliance 241 lead poisoning 123
Lexis diagram s 12, 295
h ig h -lev el manpower 7 life e x p e c ta n cy model 293
histo rical dem ography 95, 96 life h is to ry ty p e s 287-9, 299
320
life table models 12, 300 movement accounts 294, 297
life-w orld 29 m oving-average models 203
limits to grow th 241 m ulti-eollinearity 10, 260
linkage analysis 258 m ulti-dim ensional sealing 10,
Local A uthority Areas (LAAs) 266, 269, 270, 275
37, 38, 41, 43, 44, 46 m ulti-regional dem ographic
log linear models 11, 276 accounting system s 26
lum penproletariat 203 m ulti-state tra n sitio n
probabilities 11
marital fertility 4, 25, 26, 75
Markov chain analysis 10, 263
marriage 21-2, 28, 65, 70, National Health (Family
74, 86, 117, 211-2, 313 Planning) Act 1967 138,
mental maps 266-8 139
m icro-theory 1, 21-3 National Health Service 133,
m iddle-range th eo ry 1, 23 143, 144, 289
migrant stock 259 neoplasms 99, 108
migration 1, 6, 8, 14, 16, 22, new spatial division of labour
28, 43, 77, 96, 151-4 (NSDL) 9, 10, 244-8
passim norm ative-deductive theory 20
-flows 9, 18 nu p tiality 68, 70, 77, 84, 88
-information 19
-netw orks 6, 7, 171-5 Offences A gainst the Persons
-p a tte rn s 27, 30 Act 1861 139
-p ro cess 11 oil c risis 144, 225
-stu d ie s 2 OPCS Longitudinal Study 285,
-th e o ry 6, 31 289, 290
see also chain migration O rganisation of African Unity
circu lar migration 183
in tern al migration O verseas Development
in ternational migration Adm inistration 144
in ter-reg io n al m igration O verurbanisation 218
re tu rn migration
stage migration p a rity ra te 107
transm igration path analysis 261, 262, 268
minifundios 201 272
mobilcentric 180 p au perization 200
mobility ra te s 270-2 p eri u rb an isation 236
mobility tran sitio n 150, 224 p ersonal c o n stru c t th eo ry 265
mode of production 2, 29 place p re fe re n ce 242, 244
modernisation 3, 23-4, 61-2, place u tility 10, 19, 151, 265
64, 235 political b a rrie rs 170-1
morbidity 121 Population B ureau 144
mortality 1, 16, 24-6, 95, population dynamics 6, 9, 16,
148-50 137, 285
-g ra d ie n ts 99 population fo recastin g 17
-ra te s 202 population modelling 11, 12,
-stu d ie s 4 284-316
-v ariatio n s 14, 27, 30 Population Panel 142, 143, 144
see also child m ortality, population policies 5, 6, 67,
infant mortality 132-65
321
population s tu d ie s 1, 2, 13, s ta n d a rd is e d m ortality ratio s
95 4, 98, 112, 119
see also B ritish Society of sto p p in g ru le s 274
Population S tudies s tr u c tu r a l equ atio n models
positivism 2, 27, 30 261-2
postcode se c to rs 46 stru c tu ra lism 2, 18, 28
p re s s u re g ro u p s 137 s tru c tu ra tio n 29
prin cip al com ponents an aly sis su b u rb a n isa tio n 9, 225, 227,
260, 275 239, 240
p ro -n a ta lis t 64, 67, 138 su icid e 106, 110, 119, 121
psy ch ic co sts 264 su n b e lt 9, 229, 234, 247
public h ealth 109
th e o ry and methodology 13-34
recession 9, 200, 225, 243 tim e -se rie s te c h n iq u e s 263
re fu g e e s 6, 173, 181-9 to tal fe rtility ra te 65, 68, 88
regional secto ral specialisation Town an d C o u n try Planning
(RSS) 9, 10, 244-8 Act 1947 138
reg re ssio n an aly sis 27, 259, tra n sitio n acco u n ts 294, 296
267, 272 tra n sm ig ra tio n 194
re g re ssio n models 168, 169, T re a ty of Rome 177
175, 177, 189 tre n d su rfa c e an aly sis 271
re p a tria tio n 181, 183
resid e n tia l mobility 10 u n d e rb o u n d in g 229, 239, 240
resid e n tia l p re fe re n c e 10 u n d e rc o u n t 55, 56
resid e n tia l se a rc h 233-4 underem ploym ent 195, 216
resid e n tia l s tr e s s 11, 272, 273 u n d e r-e n u m e ratio n 59
re tu r n m igration 4 , 7 , 90, U niversal D eclaration of
176, 216-7, 235 Human R ig h ts 171
ris k fa c to rs 120-5 u rb a n -b ia s 8, 148, 203
Royal Commission on th e u rb a n job lo tte ry 8, 209
D istrib u tio n of In d u stria l u rb a n la b o u r m arket 206-8
Population 1940 138 u rb a n tra n sitio n 194, 195-200
Royal Commision on Population
1944 138 w a te r-b o rn e d iseases 125
w estern isatio n 61, 64
work p erm its 170
SASPAC 3, 46 World Bank 137
school d is tr ic ts 3 world economy 78, 199, 200,
second homes 242 225
secularism 4, 90 World F e rtility S u rv ey 60
sem antic d ifferen tial tec h n iq u e World Population C onference
265, 275 133
sh ift-s h a re an aly sis 245
single equation models 259-61
SMSAs (S ta n d a rd M etropolitan
S tatistical A reas) 3
small a re a s ta tis tic s (SAS) 3,
43, 46
social p h y sic s 6, 168, 169
social w elfare 9
stag e m igration 204, 205
322

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ROUTLEDGE REVIVALS

First p u b lish e d in 1 9 8 6 , this book presents a co m p reh ensiv e overview

T h is edition first pu blished in 2011 by R o utle dg e

Sim ultaneously published in the USA and C anada

© 198 6 Michael Pacione

A Library of C ongress record exists u n d e r LC C on tro l N u m b e r : 8 6 0 0 6 2 1 0

ISBN 13: 9 7 8 - 0 - 4 1 5 - 6 1 6 1 1 - 9 (hbk)

British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data

Croom Helm, 51 Washington Street, Dover,

Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data

Printed and bound in Great Britain by

1. THEORY AND METHODOLOGY IN POPULATION

2. THE BRITISH AND UNITED STATES* CENSUSES OF

3. FERTILITY PATTERNS IN THE MODERN WORLD

4. MORTALITY PATTERNS IN THE MODERN WORLD

5. GOVERNMENT POPULATION POLICIES

6. INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION: A SPATIAL

7. INTERNAL MIGRATION IN THE THIRD WORLD

10. POPULATION MODELLING 284

N otes on C o n trib u to rs 317

3.1 F e rtility ra te s b y reg io n fo r th e e a rly 1980s............ 63

1.1 A diagram atic summary of T re w a rth a 's system fo r

The stu d y of population re p re s e n ts an in te g ra l com ponent of

The p lu ra listic n a tu re of population g e o g ra p h y , with its

p a tte rn identification and modelling with significant co n tri­

reg io n al, new tow n, an d national re p o r ts to g e th e r w ith key

b u t th e con tin u ed e x isten ce of fe rtility d iffe re n c e s a t th e local

majority population in D eveloped C o u n tries w ith , in some

population policy in th e United Kingdom w here concern in the

move from m acro-scale models b ased on social p h y sic s tow ards

economies in to th e w orld c ap italist system a re th e n d isc u sse d .

th is tre n d h as become a p p a re n t an d th e phenom enon of

h a s allowed some form s of employment ( e .g . ro u tin e p ro ­

models which focus on th e in d iv id u al m ig ran t. It is o b se rv e d

mobility is th en illu s tra te d . The final set of concepts con­

THEORY AND METHODOLOGY IN POPULATION GEOGRAPHY

Population g eo g rap h y h as no one th e o r y , methodology o r , fo r

Glenn T T re w a rth a 's p re s id e n tia l a d d re s s to th e A ssociation of

population is an u n d e rsta n d in g of th e regional d ifferences in

population phenomena and th e geographic c h a ra c te r of places

c h aracteristics' (ru ra l and u rb a n ); a n d 'population in its

w eak n ess. We m ust now tu r n to co n sid e r th e main them e of

THE NEED FOR THEORY

All th e a d v a n ta g e s of w orking w ith a th e o re tic a l fram ew ork

Fig. 1.2 A th e o re tic a l window.

with th e re la tio n sh ip s betw een o u tp u t an d in p u t, with

re q u ire c arefu l co n sid eratio n w hen th e o re tic a l fram ew orks are

this t e s t, its main function is to rev eal th o se non-econom ic

legitim ises re p ro d u c tio n , inv o lv es a more o r le ss perm anent

stood w ith in th e c o n te x t o f c o n s tra in e d ch o ice. T h e a c to rs a re

p rin c ip le s which he ap p lies to a p a rtic u la r c a se , a g g re g a te

Levels: G rand T heory

of most im po rtan ce, th e u se of h isto ric a l analogy is likely to

6. Decline in in fa n t an d child m ortality

3, 4 & 5 B ehaviouralism , Humanism an d S tru ctu ralism

d ifferen t n u an ces of opinion. One c e n tra l them e, how ever,

cations fo r em pirical re s e a rc h rem ain u n c le a r, as y e t, b u t

BACKWARDS AND FORWARDS

The th e o rie s an d m ethodologies sk e tc h e d above p ro v id e

1. How should popu latio n g eo g rap h y be defined?

O bviously th e re a re a num ber of is s u e s b u t th r e e will be

T h ere need be no com placency re g a rd in g p a st achievem ents

A n k er, R. (1969) 'A n A nalysis o f F e rtility D ifferen tials in

p a tte rn identification and modelling with significant co n tri

h a s allowed some form s of employment ( e .g . ro u tin e p ro

mobility is th en illu s tra te d . The final set of concepts con

Of all th e s o u rc e s of d a ta u se d in m odern p o p u la tio n geo

(i) T he Act a u th o rise s th e ta k in g of a c e n su s of p o p u

from each in d iv id u al: se x , d ate of b ir t h , m arital s ta tu s , r e

location of in d iv id u a ls re q u ire p a rtic u la rly lab o rio u s t r e a t

- a w idening ra n g e of u s e r n e e d s, esp ecially from commer