PERT

summary and shortcomings

Yael Grushka-Cockayne
 Program Evaluation and Review Technique
(PERT)
1. For each task in a project, we identify :
𝑎𝑎 − 𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚 𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑
𝑏𝑏 − 𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚 𝑙𝑙𝑙𝑙𝑙𝑙𝑙𝑙𝑙𝑙𝑙𝑙 𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑
𝑐𝑐 − 𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚 𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑
2. Calculate mean (𝜇𝜇) and variance (𝜎𝜎 2 ) of each task’s
duration
𝑐𝑐−𝑎𝑎 2
𝜇𝜇 = 𝑎𝑎+4𝑏𝑏+𝑐𝑐
6
𝜎𝜎 2 =
6
3. Identify project’s critical path.

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 Program Evaluation and Review Technique
(PERT)

4. Calculate the project’s mean (𝜇𝜇project ) by summing up

expected durations of critical path tasks.

2
5. Calculate the project’s variance (𝜎𝜎project ) by summing up
the variances of critical path tasks.

This slide handout was created by the University of Virginia Darden School of Business and is provided to support your learning while taking this course. Please do not share or distribute it.
 Program Evaluation and Review Technique
(PERT)

6. Assume that the project’s overall duration follows a

2
normal distribution with 𝜇𝜇project and 𝜎𝜎project

7. Calculate the chance of completing the project by time

T using the normal distribution.

For instance, in Excel, =𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛 (𝑇𝑇, 𝜇𝜇project , 𝜎𝜎project ,1)

 PERT Shortcomings
• Critical Path
• may be several (near-) critical paths
• may differ from what was initially expected
• may change during project execution

This slide handout was created by the University of Virginia Darden School of Business and is provided to support your learning while taking this course. Please do not share or distribute it.
 PERT Shortcomings
• Assumes tasks’ durations are independent
• However, a project delay will often affect many
activities simultaneously: for instance, weather
delays in construction projects, new technology
failure in project development, cash flow
problems in business start-up,
• Project duration might not be Normally
distributed

This slide handout was created by the University of Virginia Darden School of Business and is provided to support your learning while taking this course. Please do not share or distribute it.