Geotech Geol Eng

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TECHNICAL NOTE

A Method for Estimating the Area Covered by Tailings

in a Dam Failure Scenario
Thais Perez Lazarim . Tennison Freire de Souza Júnior . Sidnei Helder Cardoso Teixeira .
Ana Paula Vianna Mohseni

Received: 30 November 2019 / Accepted: 24 June 2021

 The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2021

Abstract Tailing dams are structures constructed to covered by tailings after dam failure simulations using
create reservoirs for disposing mine waste. Due its small-scale physical modelling and hypothetical val-
relative lower costs, when compared with other leys with different slopes. The validation of the
alternatives for tailings disposal, this kind of structure mathematical model was made by comparing its
is often chosen by many mining companies. However, predictions with those obtained from small-scale
poor construction, malpractice, or negligence during physical models and with the Lucia’s Method as
the dam operation can lead the dam to fail, causing reported by (Lucia in Review of experiences with flow
tailings release affecting the downstream population failures of tailings dams an tailing impoudments,
and the local fauna and flora. This paper presents a University of California, Berkeley, 1981) results.
method based on the infinite slope theory that aims to
predict the potentially covered areas by the tailings Keywords Dam Break  Physical model  Numerical
released from a reservoir, in an eventual dam failure. model  Tailings
This method was used to predict the affected area
List of Symbols
T. P. Lazarim  S. H. C. Teixeira C’ Effective cohesion intercept
Graduate Program in Civil Construction Engineering, Su Undrained shear strength
Universidade Federal Do Paraná, Av. Coronel Francisco
Heráclito dos Santos no 210, Curitiba,
H Height of tailings
PR 81531-970, Brazil a Deposition angle of the tailings
e-mail: thais.lazarim@gmail.com FS Factor of Safety
S. H. C. Teixeira c Specific weight of soil.
e-mail: sidnteix@outlook.com csat Saturated unit weight
/’ Effective friction angle
T. F. de Souza Júnior (&)
Universidade Federal Do Rio Grande Do Sul, Av.
E Elevation of spread tailings (in segment i)
Osvaldo Aranha 99 – 3 andar, Porto Alegre, HNG Height of natural ground (in segment i)
RS 90035-190, Brazil HTi Height of flowing tailings
e-mail: tennisonufpr@outlook.com DEi Variation of tailings elevation
A. P. V. Mohseni
Xi Horizontal distance of initial segment end
Graduate Program in Civil Engineering, Florida Xi ? 1 Horizontal distance of final segment end
University, 256 Weil Hall, Gainesville,
FL 32611, USA
e-mail: amohseni@ce.ufl.edu

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1 Introduction
Mining activities are constantly expanding and have
resulted in a great increase in tailing generation.
According to Ministry of Mines and Energy of Brazil
MME (2019), the Brazilian mineral production rev-
enue was US$ 32 billion and US$ 34 billion in 2017
and 2018, respectively. The mineral sector contributed
to 4.07% in 2017 and 4.06% in 2018 for the Brazilian
gross domestic product (GDP). Iron, metallurgical
coal, and agricultural limestone were the largest
productions of mineral goods in those years.ig In
2019, the mineral sector participated with 22.6% of the
exported goods, registering US$ 41.9 billion (ores and
processed) across the country. The most exported
products were iron (83%), copper (8%), ornamental
rocks (4%), manganese (2%), bauxite (1%) and others
(2%).
The mineral production activity is constantly
demanding new and larger tailing disposal areas.
The commonly adopted technique to store mining
tailings consists of creating large reservoirs by con-
structing earth or tailing dams.
The eventual failure of a tailings dam is a
catastrophic event. An enormous energy is released
with the movement of large amounts of water and
tailings. The material moves downstream the dam
causing flooding, destruction of public and private
properties, interference on the local economy, destruc-
tion of fauna and flora, and loss of life, among others.
In Brazil, as well as in most of the countries around
the world, Emergency Action Plans—EAP are
required for structures classified as high risk, such as
tailing dams. The EAP consists of a document that
contain, among others, the potentially floodable areas
maps, caused by the dam failure event. The elabora-
tion of the flood maps is based on the prediction of
maximum flooded levels, velocities, and other param-
eters. Hydrodynamic models have been commonly
used for dam break studies, however, there are some
uncertainties regarding the tailings rheological model
and parameters to be used. In many cases, Newtonian
and non-Newtonian models for fluids are used to
evaluate the behavior of tailings in dam break studies
(MOON et. al, 2019), as well as flow and area
prediction affected by mud flow through 3D dam
model based on the Navier–Stokes equations and the
Bingham-Papanastasiou rheology model have been
used as the governing equations and the constitutive
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model (Yu et. al., 2020). However, it is possible that
geotechnical models can be used to assess the tailings
deposition profile after it is released from reservoir due
a dam failure, based on the limit equilibrium method.
The method is only valid after an equilibrium between
shear strengths and driving static shear stresses is
reached in tailing mass, i.e., when the factor safety for
slope stability is equal, or even higher, to 1. The limit
equilibrium method and cannot be used for different
conditions.
In this context, this paper describes a methodology
to determine the area potentially covered by the
tailings, in a dam failure scenario. The predicted area
obtained from this method can be used to prepare the
tailings flood map. The method is based on the infinite
slope theory and on experimental observations of
tailings deposition in small-scale valley models. The
results of the proposed method were compared with
the results of the simplified equilibrium model devel-
oped by Lucia (1981).
The model developed by Lucia (1981) consists of
an approach from the fluid flow model, analyzing the
two-dimensional balance of simple forces to predict
the spreading distance of the mud. The balance of
forces model admits that, when the mud flow reaches
the resting situation, the shear strength of the tailings
along its base is equal to the resistance required for the
occurrence of static balance. With the results of retro-
analysis, Lucia (1981) has calculated this resistance
from the final configuration of the tailings, after
rupture, in 16 historical cases. Due to the resistance is
derived from existing conditions at the end of the
occurrence of the mud flow is not the same static
resistance that would be measured in laboratory tests,
the retro-calculated strength is a definitive parameter
that includes not only static shear strength, but also
viscous and inertial effects.
2 2. Literature Background
2.1 Tailing Dams
Tailing dams (see Fig. 1) are artificial barriers built
across natural valleys, using tailings or compacted soil
as construction material, creating a reservoir for the
mining tailings. Tailings dams are usually built in
several stages, in order to became more economically
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Fig. 1 Downstream slope of a tailing dam
attractive, since the construction costs can be dis-
tributed along the time (SOARES 2010).
The structure is initiated by constructing a starter
dam with compacted soil, and frequently operates
during one or two years. The next rising stages can be
constructed using compacted soil, mine sterile or even
tailings (Vick 1983).
There are three classical methods for tailings dam
rising: a) upstream method; b) center line method and
c) downstream method. There are many references in
technical literature that explain these methods (Vick
1983; USEPA 1994; IBM 1995; HALLAM and
DOREY 1995; Mular et al. 2002, Tanchev 2012).
Many dams around the world are constructed using a
combination of the cited methods, according to
Oliveira and Abrão (2015). Haile and Brouwer
(1994) describe the modified centerline method, which
merges downstream method with upstream method,
resulting in somewhat like center line method.
There are three main methods that can be used for
tailings disposition in a dam reservoir. They can be
used isolated on in combination with one another.
These methods are a) Single Point Discharge; b)
Spigoting and c) Cycloning.
Knight and Haile (1983) present a classic work
regarding the description of the subaerial deposition
technique (spigots). Lighthall, Watts and Rice (1989)
describe the deposition methods by Spigoting and
Cycloning including comments about the of construc-
tion cells. These authors state that cell construction is a
method where the mud is hydraulically discharged in a
fill cell. Decantation lakes are created allowing the
solids to settle and excess of water is directed to the
opposite end of the cell to be eliminated. These
techniques are better explained in some publications
such as USEPA (1994), McPhail and Wagner (1987)
Vick (1983) and Fell et al. (2015).
The construction method, the used material and the
tailings disposal method are important factors that
influences the volume of tailings released during a
dam break scenario.
2.2 Causes of Tailings Dam Failures
Rico et al. (2008) identified 15 different causes of
recurrent dam failure. In many cases (39%), the
failures resulted from a combination of different
factors including weather conditions (heavy rains,
hurricanes, ice melting, accumulation of ice in the
tailings dam, etc.) associated with overflow / overtop-
ping, infiltration, foundation failure or poor manage-
ment of structures.
Azam and Li (2010) point out climatic factors and
poor dam management as one of the main reasons for
the dam failures. Failures due to unusual rains
increased from 25%, before the year 2000, to 40%,
after year 2000. This can be attributed to recent
changes in climatic conditions, particularly in mines
near the seas and / or located in equatorial regions with
high rainfall. Similarly, failures due to poor manage-
ment are responsible for 10% and 30% respectively for
the two periods. This increase indicates a hurry to
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exploit natural resources while compromising engi-
neering standards.
ICOLD (2001) conducted a research aiming to
identify causes of 221 dam failures around the world
and concluded that the three major causes of tailings
dam incidents are due to slope instability, overtopping
and earthquakes. Most of the incidents occurred in
active dams and in dams constructed using upstream
method of rising.
Davies (2002) reports that, assuming a worldwide
inventory of 3,500 known tailing dams in operation
along the last 30 years (1970 to 2001), and the fact that
there have been 2 to 5 failures per year, the annual
probability of a dam failure is somewhat between 1 in
700 and 1 in 1750. This annual failure probability does
not provide a favorable comparison with the desirable
probability of 1 in 10000. Souza Junior (2018) listed
several tailings dam accidents that had occurred
comparing the volumes of reservoirs and the volumes
released after rupture.
2.3 Recent Accidents in Brazil
In Brazil, two major accidents motivated changes in
the management policy of these structures. The first
accident was the Fundão Dam failure, which occurred
in Mariana city, on 5th November 2015. About 43
million m3 of iron ore tailings were released from the
reservoir, causing the greatest environmental damage
in Brazil, polluting 668 km of water courses from
Doce River to the Atlantic Ocean, killing 19 people
(Carmo 2017). Also, the tailings mud destroyed the
Bento Rodrigues district, the fauna, and flora along the
Doce river. The incident caused negative impact on
the region’s economy.
Three years after the Fundão tragedy, on January
25, 2019, another dam of iron ore tailings, named
Córrego do Feijão’s Dam (Fig. 1), catastrophically
failed in Brumadinho city. The rupture released more
than 11 million m3 of tailings. Around 10 m high mud
wave moved 10 km downstream the dam, reaching the
Paraopeba river, an important tributary of the São
Francisco river (Rotta et al. 2020). The event killed
more people than the Fundão’s dam failure resulting in
259 fatalities, with 11 others still missing.
After these accidents, new regulations and laws
were created to make tailings dams safer in Brazil,
such as Law 14,066/2020 (BRASIL, 2020a). After the
failure of Córrego do Feijão Dam, in Brumadinho-
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MG, it was established that all dams raised by
upstream method in Brazil should be decommissioned
up to the year 2021, as instructed by Resolution N8 4
(Brasil 2019). The new regulations also require a more
rigorous monitoring of the PAD (Potential Associated
Damage) and of the dam safety (BRASIL, 2020b).
3 Materials and Methods
The research summarized in this paper was developed
in two parts. In the first part, a small-scale physical
model was built to simulate nine tailing deposition
scenarios by varying the thalweg inclination and the
undrained shear strength of the tailings. In the second
part, a numerical model was developed, based on the
analytical equation of the infinite slope and an
interactive numerical approach. Finally, the results
were compared with those obtained using Lucia
(1981) Method.
The experimental part of the research consisted in
assembling a physical model of a hypothetical valley
over which mining tailings were released. The char-
acteristics of the tailings flow in the valley, as the
tailing slope and deposition profile, were evaluated.
4 Tailings Characterization
Tailings of iron ore from a Brazilian mining company
was used in the studies. In order to adequately interpret
the behavior of the material, laboratory tests such as
specific gravity, Atterberg limits (liquid limit and
plastic limit) and grain size analysis of the tailings
were performed.
Sample preparation for characterization was per-
formed according to ABNT 6457 (1986). The deter-
mination of the specific gravity of solids was
performed according to the procedures of DNER-
ME 093 (1994). The granulometric analysis was
performed according to ABNT NBR 7181 (2016),
using sodium hexametaphosphate as a deflocculant.
The tests for liquid limit (LL) and plasticity limit (PL)
were performed according to ABNT NBR 6459 (2016)
and ABNT NBR 7180 (2016), respectively.
Slump Test were performed in the tailings under
different moisture content. A curve relating the
tailings moisture content with its slump was obtained,
in a similar way as presented by Jung and Biswas.
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(2002), where a consistent correlation between slump
and the moisture contents were found. Finally, the
undrained shear strength (Su) of the tailing was
obtained using the Torvane and Mini-Vane tests,
based on ABNT NBR 10,905 (1989).
Table 1 shows the results of the tailings geotech-
nical characterization tests, such as Atterberg limits
and the specific gravity of the grains. The material
contains 19.4% of fine sand, 77.4% of silt and 3.2% of
clay, being classified according to ABNT NBR 6502
(1995) as a sandy silt.
The slump tests were performed with moisture
content ranging from 38 to 57%. Nine different tests
were performed to measure the lateral scattering of the
tailings and its deposition angle. Each test was
performed following the procedure described in
NBR NM 67 1998.
With the data obtained from these tests, a curve
relating the slump height with the moisture content
was plotted, as shown in Fig. 2. Orthogonal pho-
tographs (Fig. 3) of the cone trunk of slump test were
used to determine the deposition angles of the tailings
and its relation to moisture contend, as plotted in
Fig. 4.
Since the extension of the valley of physical model
is known (2.34 m), using the deposition angles of
tailings, it was possible to estimate the theoretical
water content range for the tailings that could be
adequately used in the physical model. The maximum
theoretical value for the moisture content was esti-
mated as 60%.
In order to perform the torvane tests, a 45 mm
diameter disk was used. For the mini-vane test, the
number 3 spring was used, which has a torque equal to
0.00172 N.m, as well as a vane with dimensions of
12.6 by 12.6 mm. Figure 5, shows the results of these
tests presenting the undrained shear strength as a
function of the moisture content. For moisture con-
tents equal to 60%, 73% and 86%, the values of
Table 1 Characterization parameters of tailings
Specific gravity 3.914
Atterberg Limit Plastic Limit—PL (%) 19.2
Liquid Limit—LL (%) 27.3
Plastic Index—PI (%) 8.1
undrained shear strength (Su) of 0,20 kPa, 0,15 kPa
and 0,10 kPa were found, respectively.
The Su values were considered adequate to be used
in the small-scale model, which was designed to have
a geometrical scaling ratio of k = 100 (prototype
dimensions / model dimensions). In this case, consid-
ering the Cauchy similitude law, the same value of
scaling ratio (k = 100) applies to undrained shear
strengths. Therefore, the values of Su used on the
model correspond to 10 kPa, 15 kPa and 20 kPa in a
hypothetical real scale prototype. These values of
undrained strengths are typically values found in
tailings.
5 Small Scale Physical Modeling
The small scale model represents a hypothetical
valley. It was constructed with MDF sheets, eucalyp-
tus slabs, EPS slabs, 1: 2: 3 (Cement: Cal: Sand)
mortar, with sides of 1.8 by 1.5 m and height equal to
0.3 m, designed with scaling factor k = 100 (see
Figs. 6 and 7). The model was designed so that the
slope of the main thalweg was equal to zero when the
base was in the horizontal position. The slope of the
valley bottom could be changed by rotating the box
toe. It significantly changes the model topography, as
shown in Fig. 7.
The physical model does not consider the presence
of rivers or water bodies in the valley as well as flora or
edifications. The Manning rugosity parameter was not
considered in this study, since the rugosity of the
surface has a very smaller dimension compared to the
tailings flow height. Besides that, during the material
flow, it was observed that the upper layers of tailings
slide over the lower layer, in an internal shear
mechanism. For the tested conditions, the shear slide
did not seem to happen on tailing-mortar interface.
The rugosity, nevertheless, can be a parameter with
higher influence in others non tested conditions,
mainly when the relation between rugosity height
and flow height is high.
Nine scenarios were simulated, variating the slope
of the main thalweg and the tailings strength, adopting
different moisture contents, as shown in Table 2. In
each simulation, 120 L of tailings were launched
during 5 min from the launching point of the model,
with a constant flow rate.
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Fig. 2 Relation between moisture content and slump of tailing

Fig. 3 Evaluation of the tailing consistency in slump test a w = 57.1; b w = 38.3%

Fig. 4 Relation between deposition angle and moisture content of tailing

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Fig. 5 Undrained shear
strength as a function of
tailings moisture
Fig. 6 Construction of the physical model
The evaluation of tailings spreading as a function of
thalweg slope was made from deposition profiles in
three sections: AA, BB and CC, according to Fig. 8.
Sections AA and BB were selected to evaluate the
tailings flow behavior in respect to the change in the
landform and the slope acclivity. The main valley
(section CC) is the preferential path for the tailings,
where it reaches greater spreading distances. Fig-
ure 9a, b illustrate the tailings spreading in the model
for scenarios 1 and 9.
To obtain the topographic surfaces, a terrestrial
laser scanner Cyrax HDS 3000 (see Fig. 10), manu-
factured by Cyra Technologies, was used. The
readings were taken before and after the tailings
release, in each of the nine scenarios.
After the scanner readings, the data were exported
to a data sheet with XYZ coordinates which was later
processed in an Excel spreadsheet and using the
software Surfer, version 7.0. This allowed the gener-
ation of a drawing file in a format compatible with
CAD programs.
From the results of reduced model simulations, the
deposition angles (a), flow height (HT) and scattering
distance (L) were obtained. A summary of the data
obtained is shown in the Table 3, where the values of
the slope of the thalweg and the moisture content of
the tailings, are presented. The thalweg slope values
varied from 0 to 4, so the results can be compared
with computations using Lucias Method.
The validation of the results from small-scale
physical models was done using the Lucia (1981)
Method, in which the input parameters are the tailings
volume, the undrained shear resistance and the
saturated unit weight of the tailings. Based on this,
considering a 0.80 m wide breach of a hypothetical
dam, the moisture content established in this study
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Fig. 7 Physical model box (dimensions in centimeters)

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Table 2 Rupture simulation scenarios

Declivity of the main talweg Moisture content
60% (Su = 0,20 kPa) 73% (Su = 0,15 kPa) 86% (Su = 0,10 kPa)

0 Scenario 1 Scenario 4 Scenario 7

2 Scenario 2 Scenario 5 Scenario 8
4 Scenario 3 Scenario 6 Scenario 9

Fig. 8 Hypothetical topography of physical model. a slope 0; b slope 2; c slope 4

Fig. 9 Simulation of scattering of the tailings after rupture—a scenario 1 (w = 60%, talweg slope angle = 0); b scenario 9 (w = 86%,
talweg slope angle = 4)

(60%, 73% and 86%), the values of saturated unit
weight (csat ) and undrained shear resistance (Su)
presented in Table 4, the volume and strength curves,
shown in Figs. 11, 12 and 13, were obtained. A
comparison between results obtained from the phys-
ical models and Lucia’s Method is presented in
Table 5, where it is possible to note a good fitting
between the data.
6 Proposed Numerical Model
By evaluating the scattering geometry of the tailings,
in the physical model, it can be verified that the tailings
deposition height is considerably smaller than its
length, as well as that during the tailings flow, the
upper layers of the material flowed over the inferior
layers until the flowing movement stops. Therefore, it
was considered that the limit equilibrium theory for

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Fig. 10 Planialtimetric survey from Laser Scanner—a Cyrax HDS 3000; b Laptop with reading processing software

Table 3 Data extracted Main talweg slope Tailing moisture content 60% 73% 86%
from the main valley cross
sections after calculation 0 Simulation 1 4 7
(CC)
Deposition angle – a 5.91 5.46 3.81
Flow height – HT 0.16 m 0.13 m 0.11 m
Spacing Distance—L 1.17 m 1.14 m 1.52 m
2 Simulation 2 5 8
Deposition angle – a 7.98 6.27 4.65
Flow height – HT 0.17 m 0.16 m 0.18 m
Spacing Distance—L 1.97 m 1.28 m 1.92 m
4 Simulation 3 6 9
Deposition angle – a 9.12 6.79 5.17
Bold indicates the Flow height – HT 0.20 m 0.22 m 0.22
identification number of the Spacing Distance—L 1.10 m 1.93 m 2.06 m
simulation scenarios

Table 4 Parameters of the numerical modeling of Lucia c’ c’tg/

(1981) FS ¼ 2 aga
þ ð1Þ
sat :H:cos csat tga
Moisture content (%) csat (kN/m3) Su (kPa)
where c0 is the effective cohesion, csat . is saturated unit
60% 18.64 0.20 weight, c0 is the effective unit weight, H is the height of
73% 16.90 0.15 tailings and a is the deposition angle of tailing.
86% 15.16 0.10 In the case of rapid soils movement under saturated
conditions, the soil resistance in terms of total stresses
is given by the undrained shear strength (Su.) and the
friction angle is equal to zero. The safety factor under
infinite slopes could be applied in order to determine these conditions is given by Eq. 2:
the distance traveled by the tailings flow and the shape Su
FS ¼ ð2Þ
of the deposited tailings profile along the talweg. sat :H:cos 2 a:tga
Assuming that the tailing is saturated, that is, the
water table coincides with t height of the tailings The factor of safety is equal to 1 (FS = 1) when the
surface, the Factor of Safety (FS) for an infinite slope movement of the tailings stops. Considering that the
can be obtained from the following equation. deposition angles of the tailings (a) are smaller than
10, as has been experimentally verified in the
physical model, it can be inferred that the cosine of

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Fig. 11 Determination of 0.80

HT and a for moisture
content of 60% and 0,8 m 0.70
wide breach
0.60

Flow Height - HT [m]

0.50
HT = 0.26m
0.40
α = 7,80°

0.30

0.20

0.10 HT = 0.18m HT = 0.22m

α = 6.00° α = 7.30°
0.00
0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 6.00 7.00 8.00 9.00 10.00 11.00

Deposion angle - α [°]

Volume curve - 0° Volume curve - 2° Volume curve - 4°
Resistance curve - 0° Resistance curve - 2° Resistance curve - 4°

Fig. 12 Determination of 0.70

HT and a for moisture
content of 73% and 0,8 m 0.60
wide breach
0.50
Flow Height - HT [m]

0.40 HT = 0.26m
α = 7.00°

0.30

0.20

0.10 HT = 0.22m
HT = 0.17m α = 6.50°
α = 5.40°
0.00
0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 6.00 7.00 8.00 9.00 10.00 11.00

Deposion angle - α [°]

Volume curve - 0° Volume curve - 2° Volume curve - 4°
Resistance curve - 0° Resistance curve - 2° Resistance curve - 4°

the deposition angle is approximately equal to 1 and elevation of tailings surface in each segment, as
the tangent value of the angle is approximately the follows:
same value of the angle, in radians. Given such As shown in Fig. 14, the elevations Ei . and Eiþ1 are
boundary conditions, Eq. 3 can be obtained: given by:
Su Ei ¼ HNGi þ HTi ð4Þ
a¼ ðradiansÞ ð3Þ
csat :H
Eiþ1 ¼ HNGiþ1 þ HTiþ1 ð5Þ
In order to evaluate the tailings spreading profile,
which relates the tailings surface elevation with the The variation of tailings elevation is, therefore,
horizontal distance, it is necessary to divide the given by:
horizontal axis iveral segments and compute the DEi ¼ Ei  Eiþ1 ð6Þ

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Fig. 13 Determination of 0.70

HT and a for moisture
content of 86% and 0,8 m 0.60
wide breach
0.50

Flow Height - HT [m]

0.40 HT = 0.26m
α = 7.00°

0.30

0.20

0.10 HT = 0.22m
HT = 0.17m α = 6.50°
α = 5.40°
0.00
0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 6.00 7.00 8.00 9.00 10.00 11.00

Deposion angle - α [°]

Volume curve - 0° Volume curve - 2° Volume curve - 4°
Resistance curve - 0° Resistance curve - 2° Resistance curve - 4°

Table 5 Comparison between the physical model and the numerical model of Lucia (1981)
Talweg slope Parameters 60% 73% 86%
Lucia (1981) Physical model Lucia (1981) Physical model Lucia (1981) Physical model

0% a 6.00 5.91 5.40 5.46 4.50 3,81

HT 0.18 0.16 0.17 0.13 0.16 0.11
L 1.29 1.17 1.42 1.14 1.70 1.52
2% a 7.30 7.98 6,50 6.27 5.40 4.65
HT 0.22 0.17 0.22 0.16 0.20 0.18
L 1.37 0.97 1.62 1.28 1.84 1.92
4% a 7.80 9.12 7.10 6.79 6.20 5.17
HT 0.26 0.20 0.26 0.22 0.27 0.22
L 1.57 1.10 1.80 1.93 2.24 2.06

Fig. 14 Profile of tailing spreading and geometric parameters

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6.1 Validation of the Proposed Numerical Model

and can be determined considering the angle of the
infinite slope with and the segmentlengths, according
The validation of the numerical model was done by
to Eq. 7:
comparing the calculations with the physical model
DEi ¼ ðXiþ1  Xi Þsinai ð7Þ simulation results. Four radial profiles were evaluated,
as shown in Fig. 16. For each section, the natural
where ai is given by:
terrain and the post-rupture surface of tailings were
Su obtained for each segment with 0.05 m in length and
ai ¼ ð8Þ
csat :HTi the results obtained are shown in Figs. 16, 17, 18, 19.
The presented results are those for Simulation 4, with
It allows us to calculate the value ofEiþ1 , based on
moisture content equal to 73% and main thalweg slope
the values ofSu, csat ., HNGi ., HNGiþ1 and HTi . The
equal to 0.
calculation must be repeated in several interaction
Comparing the results shown in the Figs. 16, 17, 18,
until the value Eiþ1 . is equal to HNGiþ1 .
19, it was possible to notice that the proposed
When the valley presents deeper void spaces, the
numerical method, based on the infinite slope theory
tailings are supposed not to move. In these cases, the
and an interactive numerical procedure, was able to
topographic map must be adjusted to became consis-
predict the geometric configuration of the longitudinal
tent with the method, by eliminating such voids and
profiles of tailings and to satisfactorily determine the
reducing the volume from the moving mass. By this
traveled distance, validating the numerical model with
way, the angle ai is adequately calculated.
the physical model results. In addition, using the
This numerical procedure must be repeated for
proposed numerical model, it was also possible to find
several sections in different directions from the failure
the spreading area of the tailings by adjusting the set
breach of the dam in order to determine the tailings
points of the tailings stream along the four evaluated
spread area (See Fig. 15). The initial elevation of
sections, as shown in Fig. 20.
tailings is a variable that must be assumed in the
In this figure, the blue dashed line represents the
cputation. The correct initial tailings elevation is the
tailing deposition boundary obtained from the pro-
one in which the deposited tailing volume downstream
posed numerical method, and the green dashed line
the dam is equal to the released tailings volume from
represents the boundary obtained in the physical
the reservoir.
modeling. In Sects.2 and 4, the profiles are very close,

Fig. 15 Model topographic survey and evaluation sections–a before tailing release; b after the tailing release

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 Geotech Geol Eng

Fig. 16 Comparative 0.20

Height - H [m]
evaluation between 0.15
deposition profiles of 0.10
proposed numerical 0.05
modeling and physical 0.00
modeling for Scenario 4– 0.00 0.20 0.40 0.60 0.80 1.00 1.20 1.40
Sect.1 Spreading distance - X [m]
Profile of numerical modeling Profile of physical modeling Profile natural ground

Fig. 17 Comparative 0.18

Height - H [m]
evaluation between 0.13
deposition profiles of 0.08
proposed numerical 0.03
modeling and physical -0.02
modeling for Scenario 4– 0.00 0.20 0.40 0.60 0.80 1.00 1.20 1.40
Sect. 2 Spreading distance - X [m]
Profile of numerical modeling Profile of physical modeling Profile of natural ground

Fig. 18 Comparative 0.18

Height - H [m]

evaluation between 0.13

deposition profiles of 0.08
proposed numerical 0.03
modeling and physical -0.02
modeling for Scenario 4– 0.00 0.20 0.40 0.60 0.80 1.00 1.20 1.40
Sect.3 Spreading distance - X [m]
Profile of numerical modeling Profile of physical modeling Profile of natural ground

Fig. 19 Comparative 0.18

Height - H [m]

evaluation between 0.13

deposition profiles of 0.08
proposed numerical 0.03
modeling and physical -0.02
modeling for Scenario 4– 0.00 0.20 0.40 0.60 0.80 1.00 1.20 1.40
Sect. 4 Spreading distance - X [m]
Profile of numerical modeling Profile of physical modeling Profile of natural ground

and Sects.1 and 3 presented a certain discrepancy
between the numerical and physical models.
6.2 Assumptions and Limitations of the Proposed
Numerical Method
The presented method can be repeatedly applied in
other several radial sections from the point of rupture
in order to obtain a more detailed spreading surface.
The main characteristics and limitations of the model
are:
• Limited to slopes of thalweg equal to or less than
10;
• Disturbed undrained shear strength of the tailings
(csat ) must be used in calculation;
• An estimation of the breach dimensions and the
released tailing volume is required as input data for
the model.
• The proposed model was developed considering
some simplifications, as no presence of water
bodies and vegetation along the talweg, no influ-
ence of surface rugosity and validity of infinite
slope stability method when tailings stop to flow,
assuming a regular bottom slope boundary.
7 Final Comments
This research was carried out, aiming to create a
geotechnical prediction method to determine the area
potentially covered by the tailings, in a dam failure

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Geotech Geol Eng
Fig. 20 Comparative evaluation of scattering of the post-
rupture tailings between the physical model and the numerical
model
scenario. This study was motivated by the recent dam
failure accidents that occurred in Brazil and the lack of
international literature on this theme. The majority of
published studies of dam breach is done by using
hydrodynamic numerical simulation, considering that
the tailing behaviors as water (Newtonian fluid) or a
non-Newtonian fluid. The Bigham Plastic Model has
been very used on that kind of simulation.
The rheological Bingham Model parameters of
tailings are complex to be obtained, mainly because of
its variation along deposit profile, while geotechnical
parameters, as undrained shear strength are better
reported on literature and are easier to be obtained.
Therefore, the authors understand that models based
on soil mechanics classic theories can be an alternative
or a complementation for predicting the cover area by
tailings in a dam failure scenario.
An alternative for evaluating the area covered by
tailings after a dam failure is small-scale physical
models, however, such models are not popular in
engineering practice or academic investigations. Once
the shear strength of tailings is conveniently scaled
accordingly the Cauchy similitude law, the authors
understand that these physical models can be useful
for dam breach studies, both in academic and
engineering practice. The results of the physical
model were also compared with the results of the
simplified equilibrium model developed by Lucia
(1981) validating the method.
A simplified equation based on infinite slope theory
was obtained, which allows to estimate the tailings
deposition angle after the flow movement stops, using
undrained shear strength, tailings height and unit
weight. Based on this equation, a numerical model to
predict the deposition profile along the tailing deposit
was developed. The numerical model was able to
describe the floodable area with a satisfactory approx-
imation when compared with small-scale model result.
Acknowledgements The authors would like to thank the
CNPQ (National Research Council) for the research funding of
the PPGECC (Civil Engineering Engineering Postgraduate
Program) of UFPR (Federal University of Paraná) and UFPR
itself for enabling space for proposals, research, and academic
support.
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