Equity Research

June 8, 2020

Zijin Mining
Acquiring Julong to increase copper recourse and boost output growth
Company Update Maintain OUTPERFORM
What's new
Ticker 601899.SH 02899.HK
Zijin Mining announced on June 7 that it plans to spend Rmb3.88bn
CICC investment rating OUTPERFORM OUTPERFORM
in cash for a 50.1% stake in Tibet Julong Copper. After the deal, Zijin Last close Rmb3.82 HK$3.14
Mining, Zangge Holding, Shengyuan Mining Group, and Tibet Mozhu CICC target Rmb4.50 HK$3.60
Gongka Dapu Industry & Trade would respectively hold 50.1%, 24.9%,
10.12%, and 14.88% of Julong Copper. We estimate that Zijin’s total 52wk price range Rmb5.02~3.13 HK$4.19~2.30
copper resources may increase 11.4% to 63.79mnt after the Market cap (bn) Rmb91 HK$100
acquisition, with domestic copper resources rising 63.5% to Daily value (mn) Rmb652.00 HK$98.45

16.85mnt. The consideration implies a low resource price of Shares outstanding (mn) 25,377 25,377
Free float (%) 76 23
Rmb593/t.
Daily volume (mn sh) 165.81 30.54
Comments Business sector Nonferrous Metals
Julong copper’s core assets are large copper and molybdenum
mines in Tibet, including Qulong, Rongmucuola, and Zhibula. If the
02899.HK HSCEI
molybdenum to copper ratio is 3:1, copper resources of Qulong and 151

Rongmucuola may total 12.6mnt with an average copper grade at 134

Relative Value (%)

0.41%, and copper resources of Zhibula may be about 463,000t with 117
an average copper grade at 1.50%, according to a corporate 100
announcement.
83

66
The consideration relatively low; copper resources increasing 2019-06 2019-09 2019-12 2020-03 2020-06

markedly. Zijin’s copper resources totaled 57.25mnt at end-2019

based on complete equity method, with about 82% located overseas. (Rmb mn) 2018A 2019A 2020E 2021E
We estimate that its total copper resources may increase 11.4% to
63.79mnt after the acquisition, with domestic copper resources rising Revenue 105,994 136,098 124,148 134,502

63.5% to 16.85mnt. (+/-) 12.1% 28.4% -8.8% 8.3%

Net profit 4,094 4,284 3,636 5,067
(+/-) 16.7% 4.6% -15.1% 39.4%
See page 3 for details.
EPS 0.16 0.17 0.14 0.20
Valuation and recommendation BPS 1.59 2.02 2.06 2.20
We leave our 2020 and 2021 earnings forecasts unchanged at DPS 0.09 0.10 0.06 0.06
Rmb3.64bn and Rmb5.07bn. Zijin A-shares and H-shares are trading CPS 0.40 0.42 0.54 0.52
at 27x and 19x 2020e P/E. We maintain OUTPERFORM and TP of P/E 17.1 16.7 18.9 13.5
Rmb4.5 (31x 2020e P/E with 18% upside) for A-shares and HK$3.6 P/B 1.7 1.4 1.3 1.2
(22x 2020e P/E with 15% upside) for H-shares. EV/EBITDA 9.8 8.5 8.5 7.0
Dividend yield 3.3% 3.5% 2.1% 2.2%
Risks
ROAA 4.0% 3.6% 2.9% 4.0%
Disappointing progress in transaction and/or operation of mines at
high altitude; sharp drop in copper price. ROAE 10.9% 9.3% 7.0% 9.4%

Source: Wind, Bloomberg, Corporate filings, CICC Research

Yan CHEN, CFA Aobo ZHAN

Analyst Analyst
yan3.chen@cicc.com.cn aobo.zhan@cicc.com.cn
SAC Reg. No.: S0080515060002 SAC Reg. No.: S0080518070002
SFC CE Ref: ALZ159 SFC CE Ref: BLZ827

Please read carefully the important disclosures at the end of this report
 CICC Research: June 8, 2020

Financial summary
Financial statement (Rmb mn) 2018A 2019A 2020E 2021E Financial ratios 2018A 2019A 2020E 2021E
Income statement Growth ability
Revenue 105,994 136,098 124,148 134,502 Revenue 12.1% 28.4% -8.8% 8.3%
COGS -92,651 -120,583 -110,410 -117,423 Operating profit 5.6% 17.1% -13.2% 30.7%
Selling expenses -887 -574 -1,508 -1,749 EBITDA 9.0% 19.1% -2.1% 24.0%
Administrative expenses -2,965 -3,689 -3,365 -3,646 Net profit 16.7% 4.6% -15.1% 39.4%
Other ops income (expense) -1,780 -2,066 -935 -1,139 Profitability
Operating profit 7,436 8,709 7,556 9,873 Gross margin 12.6% 11.4% 11.1% 12.7%
Finance costs -1,254 -1,467 -1,554 -1,755 Operating margin 7.0% 6.4% 6.1% 7.3%
Other income (expense) -51 -268 -299 -170 EBITDA margin 11.0% 10.2% 10.9% 12.5%
Profit before income tax 6,130 6,974 5,704 7,948 Net margin 3.9% 3.1% 2.9% 3.8%
Income tax -1,448 -1,913 -1,426 -1,987 Liquidity
Minority interest -589 -777 -642 -894 Current ratio 0.82 0.86 0.83 0.92
Net profit 4,094 4,284 3,636 5,067 Quick ratio 0.48 0.41 0.51 0.54
EBITDA 11,609 13,830 13,537 16,788 Cash ratio 0.27 0.19 0.17 0.17
Recurrent net income 4,094 4,284 3,636 5,067 Liabilities / assets 58.1% 53.9% 52.5% 50.2%
Balance sheet Net debt / equity 57.8% 59.6% 58.8% 55.0%
Cash and bank balances 10,090 6,225 5,362 4,853 Return
Trade and bill receivables 1,010 944 1,032 1,097 RoA 4.0% 3.6% 2.9% 4.0%
Inventories 12,670 14,887 9,861 10,684 RoE 10.9% 9.3% 7.0% 9.4%
Other current assets 6,679 6,539 9,214 9,525 Per-share data
Total current assets 30,449 28,594 25,468 26,159 EPS (Rmb) 0.16 0.17 0.14 0.20
Fixed assets and CIP 38,952 43,904 48,089 51,470 BPS (Rmb) 1.59 2.02 2.06 2.20
Intangible assets and others 43,479 51,333 50,370 49,453 DPS (Rmb) 0.09 0.10 0.06 0.06
Total non-current assets 82,431 95,237 98,459 100,923 Cash flow per share (Rmb) 0.40 0.42 0.54 0.52
Total assets 112,879 123,831 123,928 127,082 Valuation
Short-term borrowings 25,324 20,210 19,034 17,858 P/E 17.1 16.7 18.9 13.5
Trade and bill payables 4,701 4,803 4,803 3,324 P/B 1.7 1.4 1.3 1.2
Other current liabilities 7,198 8,350 6,974 7,369 EV/EBITDA 9.8 8.5 8.5 7.0
Total current liabilities 37,223 33,363 30,811 28,551 Dividend yield 3.3% 3.5% 2.1% 2.2%
Long-term borrowings 21,797 25,793 26,701 27,609
Other non-current liabilities 6,585 7,596 7,596 7,596
Total non-current liabilities 28,382 33,389 34,297 35,205
Total liabilities 65,606 66,751 65,108 63,756
Share capital 2,303 2,538 2,538 2,538
Retained profit 38,152 48,648 49,747 53,359
Shareholders' equity 40,455 51,186 52,284 55,897
Minority interest 6,818 5,894 6,535 7,429
Total liabilities & equity 112,879 123,831 123,928 127,082
Cash flow statement
Pretax profit 4,683 5,061 4,278 5,961
Depreciation & amortization 4,225 5,389 6,280 7,085
Change in working capital -1,748 -2,488 887 -2,284
Others 3,074 2,704 2,351 2,506
Cash flow from operations 10,233 10,666 13,795 13,268
Capital expenditure -17,857 -15,899 -10,300 -10,300
Others 4,217 1,796 0 0
Cash flow from investing -13,640 -14,103 -10,300 -10,300
Equity financing 78 7,861 0 0
Bank borrowings 8,821 -235 -267 -267
Others -1,243 -7,952 -4,091 -3,209
Cash flow from financing 7,655 -326 -4,359 -3,477
Foreign exchange gain (loss) -69 -84 0 0
Net changes in cash 4,178 -3,847 -864 -508

Source: Corporate filings, CICC Research

Company description
Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd is a large mining group that explores and mines gold and nonferrous metals. By the end of 2019, the company owns
mines in 14 provinces in China and more than 10 other countries, and is one of the largest manufacturers of gold and copper in China. It is also
one of the six largest manufacturers of zinc in China. In 2019, Zijin ranked fifth among major global gold mining companies by revenue.

Please read carefully the important disclosures at the end of this report
2
 CICC Research: June 8, 2020

Comments in full

The investment in the first-phase mining project of Qulong (including Rongmulacuo) is

Rmb14.6bn, with a further investment of Rmb7.2bn needed. It is scheduled to start
operation by end-2021, with an annual output of copper and molybdenum of 165,000t and
6,200t. The second-phase project is expected to start construction 7–8 years after the first
phase comes on stream, with an annual output of copper and molybdenum of 263,000t and
13,000t after completion. The Zhibula mining project is largely completed, with an annual
copper output of about 23,500t. Zijin estimates its mineral copper output at 705,000t in 2022,
and we expect the figure to rise 27% to 894,000t after the acquisition if Qulong mine can
reach its full capacity in 2022. Zijin’s net gearing ratio was about 83% as of 1Q20. We expect it
to rise to 88% (equity method) after the acquisition, but it should improve after the mining
projects are put into production.

Operation of mines at high altitude is challenging. The projects are located in the eastern
section of Gangdise Mountains in Tibet, with the highest altitude at about 5,566 meters and
the base level of erosion near the mining area at about 3,900 meters. We think this may be
challenging for the operation of the mines.

Please read carefully the important disclosures at the end of this report
3
 CICC Research: June 8, 2020

Figure 1: P/E band Figure 2: P/B band

P/E band P/B band

02899.HK 5x 10x 15x 20x 02899.HK 1x 2x 3x 4x
7 12
HKD HKD
6 10
5
8
4
6
3
4
2

1 2

0 0
7 Jan 05 14 Nov 08 21 Sep 12 29 Jul 16 5 Jun 20 7 Jan 05 14 Nov 08 21 Sep 12 29 Jul 16 5 Jun 20

Source: Wind Info, Bloomberg, CICC Research Source: Wind Info, Bloomberg, CICC Research

Figure 3: P/E band Figure 4: P/B band

P/E band P/B band

PE AVE 2.0SD 1.0SD -1.0SD -2.0SD PB AVE 2.0SD 1.0SD -1.0SD -2.0SD
50 12
X X
10
40
8

30 6

4
20
2
10
0

0 (2)
7 Jan 05 14 Nov 08 21 Sep 12 29 Jul 16 5 Jun 20 7 Jan 05 14 Nov 08 21 Sep 12 29 Jul 16 5 Jun 20

Source: Wind Info, Bloomberg, CICC Research Source: Wind Info, Bloomberg, CICC Research

Please read carefully the important disclosures at the end of this report
4
 CICC Research: June 8, 2020

Figure 5: Valuations of comparable companies

EPS BPS
Trade Reporting Target P/E P/B
Company Ticker Rating (Report CY) (Report CY)
currency currency price
2019A 2020E 2021E 2019A 2020E 2021E 2019A 2020E 2021E 2019A 2020E 2021E

ZIJIN MINING* 601899.SH CNY CNY OUTPERFORM 4.50 0.17 0.14 0.20 22.6 26.7 19.1 2.02 2.06 2.20 1.9 1.9 1.7
ZIJIN MINING* 02899.HK HKD CNY OUTPERFORM 3.60 0.17 0.14 0.20 16.7 18.9 13.5 2.02 2.06 2.20 1.4 1.3 1.2
ZHAOJIN MINING* 01818.HK HKD CNY OUTPERFORM 10.00 0.15 0.23 0.25 54.9 33.0 31.2 4.27 4.44 4.58 1.9 1.7 1.7
SD-GOLD* 600547.SH CNY CNY OUTPERFORM 45.00 0.42 0.73 0.77 86.8 49.6 46.6 7.46 8.09 8.68 4.8 4.5 4.2
ZHONGJIN GOLD* 600489.SH CNY CNY NEUTRAL 10.00 0.06 0.08 0.09 149.8 116.3 102.2 3.99 4.04 4.10 2.2 2.2 2.1
HUNAN GOLD* 002155.SZ CNY CNY NEUTRAL 7.50 0.13 0.14 0.16 58.4 56.7 49.6 4.11 4.22 4.35 1.9 1.8 1.8

MMG* 01208.HK HKD USD OUTPERFORM 2.00 -0.03 0.00 0.01 n.a. 51.7 24.6 0.13 0.13 0.14 1.6 1.5 1.4
JCCL* 600362.SH CNY CNY OUTPERFORM 14.00 0.71 0.45 0.55 18.3 29.1 23.7 15.23 14.71 15.12 0.9 0.9 0.9
JIANGXI COPPER* 00358.HK HKD CNY OUTPERFORM 8.00 0.71 0.45 0.55 10.0 15.2 12.4 15.23 14.71 15.12 0.5 0.5 0.5
CHALCO* 601600.SH CNY CNY NEUTRAL 3.00 0.05 0.04 0.06 56.4 73.2 46.1 3.21 3.25 3.31 0.9 0.9 0.9
CHALCO* 02600.HK HKD CNY NEUTRAL 1.70 0.05 0.04 0.06 28.4 35.3 22.2 3.21 3.25 3.31 0.4 0.4 0.4
CH ZN&GE* 600497.SH CNY CNY NEUTRAL 3.30 0.15 0.02 0.03 23.1 150.5 141.1 2.93 2.83 2.85 1.2 1.2 1.2
NONFEMET* 000060.SZ CNY CNY NEUTRAL 3.35 0.24 0.11 0.14 15.6 33.1 26.7 3.06 3.10 3.21 1.2 1.2 1.2

CMOC* 603993.SH CNY CNY OUTPERFORM 3.80 0.09 0.05 0.09 42.0 68.3 38.2 1.89 1.90 1.97 1.9 1.9 1.8
CMOC* 03993.HK HKD CNY OUTPERFORM 2.65 0.09 0.05 0.09 26.6 41.6 23.2 1.89 1.90 1.97 1.2 1.2 1.1
XTC* 600549.SH CNY CNY NEUTRAL 13.00 0.19 0.21 0.29 64.7 58.4 40.8 5.24 5.46 5.76 2.3 2.2 2.1
GANFENGLITHIUM* 002460.SZ CNY CNY OUTPERFORM 49.10 0.28 0.31 0.70 181.2 162.1 71.6 6.46 6.77 7.47 7.8 7.4 6.7
GANFENGLITHIUM* 01772.HK HKD CNY OUTPERFORM 28.50 0.28 0.31 0.70 92.8 80.3 35.5 6.46 6.77 7.47 4.0 3.7 3.3
TIANQI LITHIUM* 002466.SZ CNY CNY NEUTRAL 25.00 -2.10 -0.30 0.26 n.a. n.a. 88.5 6.61 6.31 6.57 3.5 3.6 3.5
JDCMOLY* 601958.SH CNY CNY NEUTRAL 6.50 0.18 0.14 0.18 34.5 42.1 33.3 4.07 3.87 3.94 1.5 1.6 1.5

CNRE* 600111.SH CNY CNY NEUTRAL 8.90 0.17 0.14 0.18 57.1 68.4 54.6 2.64 2.78 2.91 3.7 3.5 3.3
ZHONG KE SAN HUAN* 000970.SZ CNY CNY NEUTRAL 9.50 0.19 0.15 0.22 52.1 64.5 44.6 4.29 4.40 4.58 2.3 2.2 2.1
YUNSHENG* 600366.SH CNY CNY NEUTRAL 5.60 0.05 0.04 0.05 118.7 151.7 110.7 4.31 4.31 4.33 1.4 1.4 1.4
ZHMAG* 300224.SZ CNY CNY NEUTRAL 8.00 0.11 0.14 0.16 75.7 62.9 54.8 3.19 3.13 3.24 2.7 2.7 2.7
GALAXY MAGNETS* 300127.SZ CNY CNY NEUTRAL 15.00 0.46 0.44 0.53 36.9 38.6 31.6 3.90 3.98 4.30 4.3 4.2 3.9

APALT* 002540.SZ CNY CNY OUTPERFORM 5.00 0.28 0.28 0.33 15.3 15.6 13.2 3.64 3.68 3.78 1.2 1.2 1.2
BAOTI* 600456.SH CNY CNY NEUTRAL 26.50 0.56 0.76 0.99 45.2 33.2 25.4 8.68 9.24 10.03 2.9 2.7 2.5
YUNNAN GERMANIUM* 002428.SZ CNY CNY NEUTRAL 9.00 -0.09 0.02 0.03 n.a. 607.4 362.1 2.19 2.21 2.24 4.9 4.9 4.8
OTIC 000962.SZ CNY CNY n.a. n.a. 0.09 n.a. n.a. 88.4 n.a. n.a. 2.64 n.a. n.a. 2.5 n.a. n.a.
Note: CICC covers the companies marked * and we use our estimates, time weighted average forecasts used; the others represent market consensus
As of market close on Jun 5, 2020 (Beijing time)
Source: Wind Info, Bloomberg, Corporate filings, CICC Research

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 CICC Research

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