For instructional purposes only • 1st Semester SY 2020-2021

Lesson 3.4: A Demographic Transition Can

Lead to Stable Population Size and the Future
We Are Creating Now

Lesson Summary
In this section, we will investigate the significance of understanding the demographic transition to
predict the future of the world/ country’s situation.

Learning Outcomes
At the end of this lesson, the students are expected to explain the demographic transition model.

Motivation Question
As a learner, how is it essential to understand the demographic transition model?

Discussion
Frank Notestein, in 1945, a demographer pointed out that a typical pattern of falling death rates
and birth rates due to improved living conditions
(https://www.coursehero.com/file/p6svbrt/Demographic-Transition-Pattern-of-falling-death-rates-
and-birth-rates-due-to/) usually accompanies economic development. He called this pattern the
demographic transition from high birth and death rates to lower birth and death rates. Figure 1
illustrates an idealized model of a demographic transition. This model is often used to explain
connections between population growth and economic development.

Economic and social conditions change mortality and births

Stage I in figure 1 represents the conditions in a pre-modern society. Food shortages, lack of
sanitation, malnutrition, medicine, accidents, and other hazards generally keep death rates in
such a society around 30 per 1,000 people. In Stage II, economic development brings better jobs,
sanitation, medical care, and improved living standards, and death rates often fall very
rapidly(https://www.slideshare.net/422459/chapt04lecture-12268823467949018). Note that
populations overgrow during Stages II and III when death rates have already fallen, but birth rates
remain high. The transition is complete, both birth rates and death rates are low, often a third or
less than those in the predevelopment era, in developed countries in STAGE IV. The population
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comes into a new equilibrium in this phase, but at a much larger size than before
(https://www.slideshare.net/422459/chapt04lecture-12268823467949018).

The inequality between people in their most productive years and retired or declining years can
be a considerable challenge for some countries. The continuing debate in the Philippine Congress
about how to fund the Social Security system is that when this program was established, the

Philippines was in the middle of the demographic transition, with many young people relative to
older people. In 10 to 15 years, that situation will change, with many older people living longer,
and fewer younger workers.

Figure 1. Theoretical birth, death, and population growth rates in a demographic transition accompanying economic
and social development. In a predevelopment society, birth and death rates are both high, and total population remains
relatively stable. During development, death rates tend to fall first, followed in a generation or two by falling birth rates.
Total population grows rapidly until both birth and death rates stabilize in a fully developed society. Source:
(Cunningham W. & Cunningham M.A., 2013)

Factors that help stabilize populations (https://www.coursehero.com/file/p1j9gaoj/Factors-that-

increase-peoples-desires-to-have-babies-are-called-pronatalist/):

a. Growing prosperity, urbanization, and social reforms that accompany development reduce
the need and desire for large families in most countries.
b. Technology is available to bring advances to the developing world much more rapidly than
was the case a century ago.
c. Less-developed countries have historical patterns to follow. They can benefit from the
mistakes of more-developed countries and chart a course to stability relatively quickly.
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d. Modern communications (especially television and the Internet) provide information about
the benefits and methods for social change.

The future we are creating now

How many people will be in the world a century from now? The United Nations Population
Division projects four population scenarios (fig. 2). The optimistic (low) projection recommends
that the world population stabilize just below 8 billion by 2050 and then drop back below current
levels by the end of the century. The medium projection shows a population of about 9.4 billion in
35 years, while the high forecast would reach nearly 12 billion by midcentury.

Figure 2. Population projections for different growth scenarios. Recent progress in family planning and economic

development have led to significantly reduced estimates compared to a few years ago. The medium projection is 9.4
billion in 2050, compared to previous estimates of over 10 billion for that date. SOURCE: (UN Population Division,
2015).

Successful family planning programs often require significant societal changes. Among the most
important of these are:

a. Improved social, educational, and economic status (birth control and women’s rights
are often linked).
b. Improved status for children (fewer children are born if they are not needed as a cheap
labor source).
c. Acceptance of calculated choice as a valid element in life in general and infertility in
particular (the belief that we have no control over our lives discourages a sense of
responsibility).
d. Social security and political stability that give people the means and the confidence to
plan for the future.
e. The knowledge, availability, and use of effective and acceptable means of birth control.

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Family planning gives us choice.

Family planning permits couples to determine the number and spacing of their children. People
can use family planning to have the maximum number of children possible. As the desire for
smaller families becomes more prevalent, birth control often becomes an essential part of family
planning. Any method used to reduce births, including celibacy, delayed marriage, contraception,
methods that prevent embryo implantation, and induced abortions, usually means controlling
birth.

Today there are many options.

More than 100 new contraceptive methods are now being studied, and some appear to have great
promise. Nearly all are biologically based (e.g., hormonal) rather than mechanical (e.g., condom,
IUD) (https://epdf.pub/principles-of-environmental-science-6th-edition.html). Vaccines for
women are being developed that will prepare the immune system to reject the chorionic hormone
gonadotropin, which maintains the uterine lining and allows egg implantation, or that will cause
an immune reaction against sperm(https://www.coursehero.com/file/p7ohhavg/In-this-context-
birth-control-usually-means-any-method-used-to-reduce-births/). Without a doubt, the
contemporary couple has access to many more birth-control options than their grandparents had.

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Vision: A globally competitive university for science, technology, and environmental conservation.
Mission: Development of a highly competitive human resource, cutting-edge scientific knowledge TP-IMD-01
V0 07-15-2020
and innovative technologies for sustainable communities and environment.
No. 20-001