A health services provider needs to estimate the demand for a certain type of service on a we

manpower allocation decisions. Table has data on the demand for th

Week Demand
1 80
2 90
3 65
4 110
5 60
6 80
7 80
8 110

1. Exponential smoothening method

Week Demand Forecast(0.25) Error

1 80 80 0 Better 120
2 90 80 10 Better 100
3 65 82.5 -17.5 80
4 110 78.125 31.875 60
5 60 86.09375 -26.09375 40
6 80 79.5703125 0.429688 Better 20
7 80 79.677734375 0.322266 Better 0
1 2
8 110 79.758300781 30.2417
9 87.318725586 -87.31873
2. Moving average with 3 periods

Week Demand Forecast Error

1 80
2 90
3 65
4 110 78.33333 31.66667
5 60 88.33333 -28.33333
6 80 78.33333 1.666667
7 80 83.33333 -3.333333
8 110 73.33333 36.66667
9 90 -90
3. Apply linear regression technique and compute the forecast.

X Y X*Y X*X
Week Demand
1 80 80 1
2 90 180 4
3 65 195 9
4 110 440 16
5 60 300 25
6 80 480 36
7 80 560 49
8 110 880 64
Total 36 675 3115 204

X bar 4.5
Y bar 84.375
a 76.071428571
b 1.8452380952

Week Forecast Demand Error

1 77.916666667 80 2.083333
2 79.761904762 90 10.2381
3 81.607142857 65 -16.60714
4 83.452380952 110 26.54762
5 85.297619048 60 -25.29762
6 87.142857143 80 -7.142857
7 88.988095238 80 -8.988095
8 90.833333333 110 19.16667
9 92.678571429 -92.67857

4 Forecast is 110 % the average of last four period demand

X Y
Week Demand Forecast Error
1 80
2 90
3 65
4 110
5 60 94.875 -34.875
6 80 89.375 -9.375
7 80 86.625 -6.625
8 110 90.75 19.25
9 90.75 -90.75
type of service on a weekly basis. This information is important for planning
a on the demand for the services in the last 8 weeks.

Chart Title
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

Week Demand Forecast(0.25)

Chart Title
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

Week Demand Forecast

 40
20
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

Week Demand Forecast

Chart Title
120

100

Better 80

Better 60
Better 40

20

Better 0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

Week Forecast Demand