Apply simple moving average to forecast the sales for the month of

Actual
Month
Sales Forecast Error
Jan 24500
Feb 27000
Mar 19950
Apr 26000 23816.67 2183.333
May 21200 24316.67 -3116.667
Jun 18900 22383.33 -3483.333
Jul 17500 22033.33 -4533.333
Aug 19000 19200 -200
Sep 18466.67 -18466.67

Consider
time as 3
month
moving
avg
ast the sales for the month of September.
 Q.2 A departmental store may find that in a four month period, the best forecast is derived by using 40 percent of th
actual sales for the most recent month, 30 percent of two months ago,20 percent of three months ago and 10 percent
four months ago. If the actual sales experience was

Month 1 Month 2 Month 3 Month 4 Month 5

100 90 105 95 ?

97.5
ed by using 40 percent of the
months ago and 10 percent of
The past data on the load on weaving machines is shown below:

Month Load(Hrs)
May-20 ----
Jun-20 585
Jul-20 610
Aug-20 675
Sep-20 750
Oct-20 860
Nov-20 970

a) Compute the load on the weaving machine center using 5th moving average for the
month of December 2020

Month Load(Hrs)
Forecast
May-20 ----
Jun-20 585
Jul-20 610
Aug-20 675
Sep-20 750
Oct-20 860
Nov-20 970 696
20-Dec 773

b) Compute a weighted three months average for December ,2020 where the
weights are 0.5 for the latest month,0.3 and 0.2 for the other months respectively.

893
Ganesh Darshini is known for its specialty item, the Mysore Masala Dosa( MMD). Estimating the
demand for MMD during the evening peak hours (6.00 pm to 8.00 pm) is crucial.Table below has
the data regarding the demand for MMD during the last six weeks.

Week Demand
1 80
2 95
3 75
4 110
5 100
6 90

Use the exponential smoothening to estimate the

demand for the next week.

Assume smoothening coefficient is 0.2

Exponential smoothening
120
Week Demand Forecast Error 100
80
1 80 80 0 60
2 95 80 15 40
20
3 75 83 -8 0
1 2 3 4 5
4 110 81.4 28.6
5 100 87.12 12.88
6 90 89.696 0.304
7 89.7568 Demand Forecast

When the lines intersect, error is less. When lines a

nential smoothening

3 4 5 6 7

Demand Forecast

sect, error is less. When lines are away from each other, error is high.
 The demand for the particular period is given for the last 8 periods. Compute exponentially smoothed fo
periods taking α = 0.1 and 0.3. Which of these forecast is better.

Forecast for period 1 is 15

Period 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Demand 10 18 29 15 30 12 16 8
Forecast(0.1) 15 14.5 14.85 16.265 16.1385 17.52465 16.97219 16.87497
Error -5 3.5 14.15 -1.265 13.8615 -5.52465 -0.972185 -8.874967
same better same better better better better

Period 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Demand 10 18 29 15 30 12 16 8
Forecast(0.3) 15 13.5 14.85 19.095 17.8665 21.50655 18.65459 17.85821
Error -5 4.5 14.15 -4.095 12.1335 -9.50655 -2.654585 -9.85821
better

Lower alpha value is better

Demand 10 18 29 15 30 12 16 8
Forecast(0.1) 15 14.5 14.85 16.265 16.1385 17.52465 16.97219 16.87497
Forecast(0.3) 15 13.5 14.85 19.095 17.8665 21.50655 18.65459 17.85821

Chart Title
35

30

25

20

15

10

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Demand Forecast(0.1) Forecast(0.3)

ponentially smoothed forecast for the
st is better.

Chart Title
35

30

25

20
15.98747 15

10

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

Demand Forecast(0.1)

Chart Title
35
30
14.90075 25
20
15
10
5
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

Demand Forecast(0.3)
 A manufacturer of critical components for two wheelers in the automotive sector is interested in forecastin
of demand during the next year as a key input to its annual planning exercise. Information on the past sales
for the last three years (see table below). Extract the trend component of the time series data and use if for
the future demand of the components.

Time Period demand

Period Actual Demand X Y X*Y
Year 1: Q1 360 1 360 360
Year 1: Q2 438 2 438 876
Year 1: Q3 359 3 359 1077
Year 1: Q4 406 4 406 1624
Year 2: Q1 393 5 393 1965
Year 2: Q2 465 6 465 2790
Year 2: Q3 387 7 387 2709
Year 2: Q4 464 8 464 3712
Year 3: Q1 505 9 505 4545
Year 3: Q2 618 10 618 6180
Year 3: Q3 443 11 443 4873
Year 3: Q4 540 12 540 6480
Total 78 5378 37191

b 15.62
a 346.62
X bar 6.5
Y bar 448.17

Linear Trend Equation Year 4

Y = a + bX
Y = 346.62+15.62X
ctor is interested in forecasting the trend
Information on the past sales is available
ime series data and use if for predicting

X*X
1
4
9
16
25
36
49
64
81
100
121
144
650

Q1 549.7121 X=13
Q2 565.3345 X=14
Q3 580.9569 X=15
Q4 596.5793 X=16
A manufacturer of tricycles for children in the age group of two to four years commissioned a market resea
the factors that influenced the demand for its product. After some detailed studies, the market research fir
demand was a simple linear function of the number of newly married couples in the city. Based on this a
causal model for forecasting the demand for the product using data given in table(given below) collected fo
city. Also estimate the demand for tricycle if the number of new marriages is 150 and 25

X Y X*Y X*X
New Marriages Demand for Tricyles
200 165 33000 40000
235 184 43240 55225
210 180 37800 44100
197 145 28565 38809
225 190 42750 50625
240 169 40560 57600
217 180 39060 47089
225 170 38250 50625
Total 1749 1383 303225 384073

X bar 218.625
Y bar 172.875
a 61.284988588677
b 0.510417433556652

Y=172.8+0.00032X
137.847603622175 X=150
188.88934697784 X=250
 ommissioned a market research firm to understand
udies, the market research firm concluded that the
es in the city. Based on this assumption, build a
ble(given below) collected for residential area in a
new marriages is 150 and 250.