Exercise 1

Alpha 0.3
Moving Average Weighted Exponential
Data Forecast Data Weight Forecast Data Forecast
20 20 0.1 20
21 21 0.1 21
15 15 0.1 15
14 14 0.2 14
13 13 0.2 13
16 16 0.3 16
17 17 17
18 18 18
20 20 20 18
20 20 20 18.6
21 21 21 19.02
23 23 23 19.614
Forecast Forecast
for for
January 20.6 January 20.6298

Forecast
for
January 21.33333 1.7
1.8
2
4
4.2
6.9
20.6
Trend
Data Month
20 1
21 2
15 3
14 4
13 5
16 6
17 7
18 8
20 9
20 10
21 11
23 12

15.57576 intercept y = 15.57 + 0.398x

0.398601 slope
for january we replace x by 13 we get: 20.744
Exercise 2

3-day moving average 2-day moving average

Data forecast Data Forecast Deviation Squared error
93 93
94 94
93 93 93.5 0.5 0.25
95 95 93.5 1.5 2.25
96 96 94 2 4
88 88 95.5 7.5 56.25
90 90 92 2 4
Today Today
Forecast 91.33333 Forecast 89
2.7 13.35
MAD MSE
Ratio

0.005376
0.015789
0.020833
0.085227
0.022222

0.02989
MAPE
Exercise 3

3-period average 4-period average

Week Sales Forecast Deviation Week Sales Forecast Deviation
1 17 1 17
2 21 2 21
3 26 3 26
4 18 4 18
5 29 21.66667 7.333333 5 29 20.5 8.5
6 17 24.33333 7.333333 6 17 23.5 6.5
7 21 21.33333 0.333333 7 21 22.5 1.5
8th Week forecast 22.33333

MAD 5 MAD 5.5