Nicole Ticnang

BSAcc 1-A

Operations Management

PROBLEM 1

Regression Analysis

Unit Profit
sales (x) (y)
7 0.15
2 0.1
6 0.13
4 0.15
14 0.25
15 0.27
16 0.24
12 0.2
14 0.27
20 0.44
15 0.34
7 0.17

SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.916666
R Square 0.840276
Adjusted R 0.824304
Square
Standard 0.040736
Error
Observation 12
s

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significan
ce F
Regression 1 0.087298 0.08729 52.608 2.75E-05
8
Residual 10 0.016594 0.00165
9
Total 11 0.103892
 Coefficien Standard t Stat P-value Lower Upper Lower Upper
ts Error 95% 95% 95.0% 95.0%
Intercept 0.050601 0.026869 1.88320 0.08905 -0.00927 0.11047 - 0.11047
9 2 0.00927
X Variable 1 0.01593 0.002196 7.25313 2.75E- 0.011037 0.02082 0.01103 0.02082
7 05 4 7 4

RESIDUAL OUTPUT

Observatio Predicted Residual

n Y s
1 0.162112 -0.01211
2 0.082461 0.017539
3 0.146182 -0.01618
4 0.114322 0.035678
5 0.273624 -0.02362
6 0.289554 -0.01955
7 0.305484 -0.06548
8 0.241764 -0.04176
9 0.273624 -0.00362
10 0.369205 0.070795
11 0.289554 0.050446
12 0.162112 0.007888

PROBLEM 2
Trend Analysis

Month Actual Forecast

Demand
1 18 20.6
2 14 20.73333
3 21 20.86667
4 26 21
5 26 21.13333
6 29 21.26667
7 19 21.4
8 19 21.53333
9 25 21.66667
10 15 21.8
11 21.93333
12 22.06667
13 22.2
14 22.33333
15 22.46667

Slope 0.133333
Intercept 20.46667

PROBLEM 3

MAD MSE MAPE

 Period Actual Forecast (A-F) |Error| Error² [|Error|/Actual]
Error *100
1 217 215 2 2 4 0.921659
2 213 216 -3 3 9 1.408451
3 216 215 1 1 1 0.462963
4 210 214 -4 4 16 1.904762
5 213 211 2 2 4 0.938967
6 219 214 5 5 25 2.283105
7 216 217 -1 1 1 0.462963
8 212 216 -4 4 16 1.886792
Sum (∑) -2 22 76 10.26966

MAD 2.75
MSE 10.85714
MAPE 1.283708

Formulas

Period Actual Forecast (A-F) Error |Error| Error² [|Error|/

Actual]
*100
1 217 215 =B2:B9-C2:C9 2 = (B2:B9- =E2:E9/
C2:C9) ^2 B2:B9*100
2 213 216 3
3 216 215 1
4 210 214 4
5 213 211 2
6 219 214 5
7 216 217 1
8 212 216 4
Sum (∑) =SUM =SUM =SUM =SUM
(D2:D9) (E2:E9) (F2:F9) (G2:G9)

MAD =AVEDEV
(B2:B9-
C2:C9)
MSE =F10/(A9-1)
MAPE =G10/A9