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220
Forecast
MAD = 2.75 218
MSE = 10.857143
216
MAPE = 1.2837%
214
Actual
220
218
216
214
212
210
208
206
204
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Period
Actual Forecast
Moving Average
44
MAD = 1.67
43
MSE = 6.94
42
5 41 41 0 0 0 37
6 38 41.333333 -3.333333 3.3333333 11.111111
36
7 39.666667
35
1 2 3 4 5 6
Period
Actual Forecast
4 5 6
Period
ual Forecast
Exponential Smoothing
50
35
Period Actual Forecast Error |Error| Error 2
30
1 19
25
2 18 19 -1 1 1
15 20
3 18.8 -3.8 3.8 14.44
4 20 18.04 1.96 1.96 3.8416 15
Period
Actual Forecast
5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Period
Actual Forecast
Linear Trend Equation
800
Slope = 0.7143 MAD = 1.51
Intercept = 16.285714 MSE = 3.76 780
760
Period Actual Forecast Error |Error| Error 2
740
1 19 17 2 2 4
2 18 17.714286 0.2857143 0.2857143 0.0816327 720
3 15 18.428571 -3.428571 3.4285714 11.755102
700
4 20 19.142857 0.8571429 0.8571429 0.7346939
5 18 19.857143 -1.857143 1.8571429 3.4489796 680
6 22 20.571429 1.4285714 1.4285714 2.0408163
660
7 22 21.285714 0.7142857 0.7142857 0.5102041
8 640
9 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
10 Period
11
12 Actual Forecast
5 6 7 8 9 10
Period
tual Forecast
Trend and Seasonal
Slope = 7.5 Period Season Trend Index Forecast
Intercept = 124 1 4 131.5 0.95 124.925
2 1 139 1.2 166.8
3 2 146.5 1.1 161.15
Season Index 4 3 154 0.75 115.5
4 0.95 5 4 161.5 0.95 153.425
1 1.2 6 1 169 1.2 202.8
2 1.1 7 2 176.5 1.1 194.15
3 0.75 8 3 184 0.75 138
9 4 191.5 0.95 181.925
10 1 199 1.2 238.8
11 2 206.5 1.1 227.15
12 3 214 0.75 160.5
13 4 221.5 0.95 210.425
14 1 229 1.2 274.8
15 2 236.5 1.1 260.15
16 3 244 0.75 183
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Period
Trend Forecast
Compute Seasonal Indexes
Fri
Sat
Thur
Tues
Wed
Sun
20 Sun 44 72.428571
21 Mon 50 72.142857
Standard
Index
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
Fri
Sat
Thur
Tues
Mon
Wed
Sun
Simple Linear Regression
0.5
Y
4 0.15 0.1143217 0.0356783 0.2
14 0.25 0.273624 -0.023624
0.15
15 0.27 0.2895543 -0.019554
16 0.24 0.3054845 -0.065484 0.1
12 0.2 0.2417636 -0.041764 0.05
14 0.27 0.273624 -0.003624
20 0.44 0.3692054 0.0707946 0
0 5 10 15 20
15 0.34 0.2895543 0.0504457
7 0.17 0.1621124 0.0078876 X
Linear (Data)