(untitled)

Forecasting Exponential smoothing

Forecasting
This spreadsheet was created by either POM, QM or POM-QM for Windows, V4.

25
Alpha 0.60000002 20
15 Demand
Data Error Analysis

Value
10
Period Demand Forecast Error Absolute SquaredForecast
|% Error|
5
Past period 1 17 17
0
Past period 2 21 17 4 4 16 0.19047619
1 35 7 9 11
Past period 3 19 19.4000001 -0.4000001 0.4000001 0.16000008 0.02105264
Past period 4 23 19.16 3.83999997Time
3.83999997 14.7455998 0.16695652
Past period 5 18 21.4640001 -3.4640001 3.4640001 11.9992967 0.19244445
Past period 6 16 19.3856 -3.38559996 3.38559996 11.4622871 0.2116
Past period 7 20 17.3542399 2.6457601 2.6457601 7.00004649 0.132288
Past period 8 18 18.941696 -0.94169602 0.94169602 0.8867914 0.05231645
Past period 9 22 18.3766784 3.62332161 3.62332161 13.1284595 0.16469644
Past period 1 20 20.5506714 -0.55067144 0.55067144 0.30323904 0.02753357
Past period 1 15 20.2202686 -5.22026856 5.22026856 27.2512039 0.3480179
Past period 1 22 17.0881073 4.9118927 4.9118927 24.1266899 0.22326785
Total 5.05873819 32.9832106 127.063614 1.73065001
Average 0.45988529 2.99847369 11.5512376 0.15733182
Bias MAD MSE MAPE
SE 3.75741657
Next period 20.035243
PROBLEMA GASOLINA

Forecasting Moving averages - 3 period moving average

Forecasting
This spreadsheet was created by either POM, QM or POM-QM for Windows, V4.

25
20
15 Demand
Data Error analysis

Value
10
Period Demand Forecast Error Absolute SquaredForecast
|% Error|
5
Past period 1 17
0
Past period 2 21
1 3 5 7 9 11
Past period 3 19
Past period 4 23 19 4Time 4 16 0.17391304
Past period 5 18 21 -3 3 9 0.16666667
Past period 6 16 20 -4 4 16 0.25
Past period 7 20 19 1 1 1 0.05
Past period 8 18 18 0 0 0 0
Past period 9 22 18 4 4 16 0.18181818
Past period 1 20 20 0 0 0 0
Past period 1 15 20 -5 5 25 0.33333333
Past period 1 22 19 3 3 9 0.13636364
Total 0 24 92 1.29209486
Average 0 2.66666667 10.2222222 0.1435661
Bias MAD MSE MAPE
SE 3.62530787
Next period 19