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220
Forecast
MAD = 2.75 218
MSE = 10.857143
216
MAPE = 1.2837%
214
Actual
220
218
216
214
212
210
208
206
204
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Period
Actual Forecast
Moving Average
44
MAD = 1.67
43
MSE = 6.94
42
5 41 41 0 0 0 37
6 38 41.333333 -3.333333 3.3333333 11.111111
36
7 39.666667
35
1 2 3 4 5 6
Period
Actual Forecast
4 5 6
Period
ual Forecast
Exponential Smoothing
50
35
Period Actual Forecast Error |Error| Error 2
30
1 42
25
2 40 42 -2 2 4
20
3 43 41.8 1.2 1.2 1.44
4 40 41.92 -1.92 1.92 3.6864 15
Period
Actual Forecast
Linear Trend Equation
800
Slope = 7.5091 MAD = 73.75
Intercept = 699.4 MSE = 54,472.05 780
760
Period Actual Forecast Error |Error| Error 2
740
1 700 700 700 490000
2 724 714.41818 9.5818182 9.5818182 91.81124 720
3 720 721.92727 -1.927273 1.9272727 3.7143802
700
4 728 729.43636 -1.436364 1.4363636 2.0631405
5 740 736.94545 3.0545455 3.0545455 9.3302479 680
6 742 744.45455 -2.454545 2.4545455 6.0247934
660
7 758 751.96364 6.0363636 6.0363636 36.437686
8 750 759.47273 -9.472727 9.4727273 89.732562 640
9 770 766.98182 3.0181818 3.0181818 9.1094215 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Period
tual Forecast
Trend and Seasonal
Slope = 7.5 Period Season Trend Index Forecast
Intercept = 124 1 4 131.5 0.95 124.925
2 1 139 1.2 166.8
3 2 146.5 1.1 161.15
Season Index 4 3 154 0.75 115.5
4 0.95 5 4 161.5 0.95 153.425
1 1.2 6 1 169 1.2 202.8
2 1.1 7 2 176.5 1.1 194.15
3 0.75 8 3 184 0.75 138
9 4 191.5 0.95 181.925
10 1 199 1.2 238.8
11 2 206.5 1.1 227.15
12 3 214 0.75 160.5
13 4 221.5 0.95 210.425
14 1 229 1.2 274.8
15 2 236.5 1.1 260.15
16 3 244 0.75 183
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Period
Trend Forecast
Compute Seasonal Indexes
Fri
Sat
Thur
Tues
Wed
20 Sun 44 72.428571
21 Mon 50 72.142857
Standard
Index
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
Fri
Sat
Thur
Tues
Sun
Mon
Wed
Simple Linear Regression
0.5
Y
4 0.15 0.1143217 0.0356783 0.2
14 0.25 0.273624 -0.023624
0.15
15 0.27 0.2895543 -0.019554
16 0.24 0.3054845 -0.065484 0.1
12 0.2 0.2417636 -0.041764 0.05
14 0.27 0.273624 -0.003624
20 0.44 0.3692054 0.0707946 0
0 5 10 15 20
15 0.34 0.2895543 0.0504457
7 0.17 0.1621124 0.0078876 X
Linear (Data)