zad 1 Tast 1 On GUS in the table we have real date deal with amount graduated high school in Poland

Poland form 2003 to 2019

amount graduated high school in Poland in 2022. Try calculate ex-post error and establish if the linear model is sta

absolwenci studiów na poziomie magisterskim

Kod Nazwa 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
[osoba] [osoba] [osoba] [osoba] [osoba] [osoba] [osoba] [osoba]
0000000 POLSKA 200,766 210,332 211,962 214,647 217,091 212,765 221,915 222,519

Ex post error
t Y
2003 1 200,766 Y
2004 2 210,332 250,000
2005 3 211,962
2006 4 214,647 f(x) = − 3734.79656862745 x + 2310
200,000 R² = 0.611735539576294
2007 5 217,091
2008 6 212,765
150,000
2009 7 221,915
2010 8 222,519
2011 9 215,343 100,000

2012 10 211,270
2013 11 198,956 50,000
2014 12 189,802
2015 13 177,912 0
0 2 4 6 8 1
2016 14 166,671 Ex post error
2017 15 186,743
2018 16 151,499 Y^ error in %
2019 17 146,016 164061.4 -0.15%
2020 18 163810.89 160812.7 -0.46% 250,000
2021 19 160076.09 157628.4 -0.82%
f(x) = 235154
2022 20 156341.3 200,000 R² = 0.609920

150,000

a -3734.797 231037.2
100,000

50,000
1 1 200766
2 1 210332
0
3 1 211962 0 2 4
4 1 214647
5 1 217091
6 1 212765
7 1 221915
8 1 222519
 9 1 215343
10 1 211270
X= 11 1 Y= 198956
12 1 189802
13 1 177912
14 1 166671
15 1 186743
16 1 151499
17 1 146016

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

XT*X= 1785 153 0.002451 -0.022059

153 17 -0.022059 0.257353

XT*Y= 28682084
3356209

A= -3734.797
231037.23
Poland form 2003 to 2019. Fit to the date linear matematical model. On your model prepear forecast the
h if the linear model is statistical significance.

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

[osoba] [osoba] [osoba] [osoba] [osoba] [osoba] [osoba] [osoba] [osoba]
215,343 211,270 198,956 189,802 177,912 166,671 186,743 151,499 146,016

= − 3734.79656862745 x + 231037.227941176
0.611735539576294

4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18

Y
250,000

f(x) = 235154.071720472 exp( − 0.0202894195595531 x )

200,000 R² = 0.609920952667485

150,000

100,000

50,000

0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Task 3

Match to the date belowe the best mathematical model. You should argue your choice. You should predict on this model v
t Y
1 45
2 53
3 62
4 64
Y
5 64 90
6 68
80
7 65 f(x) = 1.69285714285714 x + 52.4571428571429
8 68 70 R² = 0.788226213864721
9 67
60
10 66
11 70 50
12 70
40
13 71
14 77 30
15 80
20
16 79.54286
10

0
0 2 4 6 8 10

a 1.692857 52.45714

Arguments:In this task we have a scatter plot with markers, add a trend line, and make a forecast
d predict on this model value in 16-th period.

8571429

8 10 12 14 16