EXERCISE

1. Table 7-3 Monthly Demand for ABC Corporation

Sales Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5
January 2,000 3,000 2,000 5,000 5,000
February 3,000 4,000 5,000 4,000 2,000
March 3,000 3,000 5,000 4,000 3,000
April 3,000 5,000 3,000 2,000 2,000
May 4,000 5,000 4,000 5,000 7,000
June 6,000 8,000 6,000 7,000 6,000
July 7,000 3,000 7,000 10,000 8,000
August 6,000 8,000 10,000 14,000 10,000
Septembe
10,000 12,000 15,000 16,000 20,000
r
October 12,000 12,000 15,000 16,000 20,000
Novembe
14,000 16,000 18,000 20,000 22,000
r
December 8,000 10,000 8,000 12,000 8,000
Total 78,000 89,000 98,000 115,000 113,000

Consider monthly demand for the ABC Corporationa s shown in Table 7-3. Forecast the monthly demand for year 6 using the static method
for forecasting. Evaluate the bias, TS, MAD, MAPE, and MSE. Evaluate the quality of the forecast

2. Weekly sales og Hot Pizza are as follows:

Week Demands Week Demands

1 108 7 96
2 116 8 102
3 118 9 112
4 124 10 102

1
 5 96 11 92
6 119 12 91
Estimate demand for the next four week using a four-week moving average as well as simple exponential smoothing with α = 0.1. evaluate
the MAD,MSE, bias and TS in each case. Which one of the methods do you prefer? Why

1. Forecast monthly demand for years 6

α=0.6
60
Fn=Ln-1  Dt
L1= αD1+(1-α)Lo L0  t 1
60
Ln= αDn+(1-α)Ln-1

Numbe
Error Absolute Absolut
r of Year Month Demand Level Ln Forecast Bias MSE MAD MAPE TS
(Et) Error (At) e Et/Dt
Months
0       8,216.67                  
1 Year 1 January 2000 4,486.67 8,216.67 6,216.67 6,216.67 6,216.67 38,646,944.44 6,216.67 3.11 310.83 1.00
2 Year 1 February 3000 3,594.67 4,486.67 1,486.67 1,486.67 7,703.33 20,428,561.11 3,851.67 0.50 180.19 2.00
3 Year 1 March 3000 3,237.87 3,594.67 594.67 594.67 8,298.00 13,736,916.89 2,766.00 0.20 126.74 3.00
4 Year 1 April 3000 3,095.15 3,237.87 237.87 237.87 8,535.87 10,316,832.80 2,133.97 0.08 97.04 4.00
5 Year 1 May 4000 3,638.06 3,095.15 (904.85) 904.85 7,631.01 8,417,218.15 1,888.14 0.23 82.15 4.04
6 Year 1 June 6000 5,055.22 3,638.06 (2,361.94) 2,361.94 5,269.07 7,944,142.94 1,967.11 0.39 75.02 2.68
7 Year 1 July 7000 6,222.09 5,055.22 (1,944.78) 1,944.78 3,324.30 7,349,573.34 1,963.92 0.28 68.27 1.69
8 Year 1 August 6000 6,088.84 6,222.09 222.09 222.09 3,546.38 6,437,042.14 1,746.19 0.04 60.20 2.03
9 Year 1 September 10000 8,435.53 6,088.84 (3,911.16) 3,911.16 (364.78) 7,421,504.76 1,986.74 0.39 57.86 (0.18)
10,574.2 (3,929.25
10 Year 1 October 12000 8,435.53 (3,564.47) 3,564.47 7,949,895.86 2,144.52 0.30 55.04 (1.83)
1 )
12,629.6 10,574.2 (7,355.03
11 Year 1 November 14000 (3,425.79) 3,425.79 8,294,088.20 2,260.99 0.24 52.26 (3.25)
9 1 )
12,629.6 (2,725.35
12 Year 1 December 8000 9,851.87 4,629.69 4,629.69 9,389,079.83 2,458.39 0.58 52.73 (1.11)
9 )

2
 13 Year 2 January 3000 5,740.75 9,851.87 6,851.87 6,851.87 4,126.53 12,278,241.38 2,796.35 2.28 66.24 1.48
14 Year 2 February 4000 4,696.30 5,740.75 1,740.75 1,740.75 5,867.28 11,617,667.67 2,720.95 0.44 64.62 2.16
15 Year 2 March 3000 3,678.52 4,696.30 1,696.30 1,696.30 7,563.58 11,034,985.37 2,652.64 0.57 64.08 2.85

Numbe Absolute
Deman Error Absolut
r of Year Month Level Ln Forecast Error Bias MSE MAD MAPE TS
d (Et) e Et/Dt
Months (At)
16 Year 2 April 5000 4,471.41 3,678.52 (1,321.48) 1,321.48 6,242.10 10,454,443.13 2,569.44 0.26 61.73 2.43
17 Year 2 May 5000 4,788.56 4,471.41 (528.59) 528.59 5,713.51 9,855,911.74 2,449.39 0.11 58.72 2.33
18 Year 2 June 8000 6,715.43 4,788.56 (3,211.44) 3,211.44 2,502.07 9,881,323.67 2,491.73 0.40 57.69 1.00
19 Year 2 July 3000 4,486.17 6,715.43 3,715.43 3,715.43 6,217.49 10,087,800.58 2,556.13 1.24 61.17 2.43
20 Year 2 August 8000 6,594.47 4,486.17 (3,513.83) 3,513.83 2,703.66 10,200,760.57 2,604.02 0.44 60.31 1.04
21 Year 2 September 12000 9,837.79 6,594.47 (5,405.53) 5,405.53 (2,701.87) 11,106,427.96 2,737.42 0.45 59.58 (0.99)
22 Year 2 October 12000 11,135.11 9,837.79 (2,162.21) 2,162.21 (4,864.08) 10,814,097.79 2,711.28 0.18 57.69 (1.79)
23 Year 2 November 16000 14,054.05 11,135.11 (4,864.89) 4,864.89 (9,728.97) 11,372,924.28 2,804.91 0.30 56.50 (3.47)
24 Year 2 December 10000 11,621.62 14,054.05 4,054.05 4,054.05 (5,674.92) 11,583,856.13 2,856.96 0.41 55.84 (1.99)
25 Year 3 January 2000 5,848.65 11,621.62 9,621.62 9,621.62 3,946.70 14,823,523.50 3,127.54 4.81 72.85 1.26
26 Year 3 February 5000 5,339.46 5,848.65 848.65 848.65 4,795.35 14,281,088.07 3,039.89 0.17 70.70 1.58
27 Year 3 March 5000 5,135.78 5,339.46 339.46 339.46 5,134.81 13,756,426.74 2,939.88 0.07 68.33 1.75
28 Year 3 April 3000 3,854.31 5,135.78 2,135.78 2,135.78 7,270.59 13,428,039.06 2,911.16 0.71 68.44 2.50
29 Year 3 May 4000 3,941.73 3,854.31 (145.69) 145.69 7,124.90 12,965,735.11 2,815.80 0.04 66.20 2.53
30 Year 3 June 6000 5,176.69 3,941.73 (2,058.27) 2,058.27 5,066.63 12,674,760.42 2,790.55 0.34 65.14 1.82
31 Year 3 July 7000 6,270.68 5,176.69 (1,823.31) 1,823.31 3,243.32 12,373,137.79 2,759.35 0.26 63.88 1.18
32 Year 3 August 10000 8,508.27 6,270.68 (3,729.32) 3,729.32 (486.01) 12,421,097.76 2,789.66 0.37 63.05 (0.17)
33 Year 3 September 15000 12,403.31 8,508.27 (6,491.73) 6,491.73 (6,977.74) 13,321,747.92 2,901.84 0.43 62.45 (2.40)
34 Year 3 October 15000 13,961.32 12,403.31 (2,596.69) 2,596.69 (9,574.43) 13,128,249.70 2,892.87 0.17 61.12 (3.31)
(13,613.10
35 Year 3 November 18000 16,384.53 13,961.32 (4,038.68) 4,038.68 13,219,182.84 2,925.61 0.22 60.01 (4.65)
)

3
 36 Year 3 December 8000 11,353.81 16,384.53 8,384.53 8,384.53 (5,228.58) 14,804,770.31 3,077.24 1.05 61.26 (1.70)
37 Year 4 January 5000 7,541.52 11,353.81 6,353.81 6,353.81 1,125.24 15,495,747.42 3,165.80 1.27 63.04 0.36
38 Year 4 February 4000 5,416.61 7,541.52 3,541.52 3,541.52 4,666.76 15,418,027.68 3,175.69 0.89 63.71 1.47
39 Year 4 March 4000 4,566.64 5,416.61 1,416.61 1,416.61 6,083.37 15,074,149.62 3,130.58 0.35 62.98 1.94
40 Year 4 April 2000 3,026.66 4,566.64 2,566.64 2,566.64 8,650.02 14,861,987.41 3,116.48 1.28 64.62 2.78

Numbe Absolute
Deman Error Absolut
r of Year Month Level Ln Forecast Error Bias MSE MAD MAPE TS
d (Et) e Et/Dt
Months (At)
41 Year 4 May 5000 4,210.66 3,026.66 (1,973.34) 1,973.34 6,676.67 14,594,477.48 3,088.60 0.39 64.00 2.16
42 Year 4 June 7000 5,884.27 4,210.66 (2,789.34) 2,789.34 3,887.34 14,432,237.56 3,081.48 0.40 63.43 1.26
43 Year 4 July 10000 8,353.71 5,884.27 (4,115.73) 4,115.73 (228.40) 14,490,540.71 3,105.53 0.41 62.91 (0.07)
44 Year 4 August 14000 11,741.48 8,353.71 (5,646.29) 5,646.29 (5,874.69) 14,885,770.12 3,163.27 0.40 62.40 (1.86)
(10,133.21
45 Year 4 September 16000 14,296.59 11,741.48 (4,258.52) 4,258.52 14,957,974.60 3,187.61 0.27 61.60 (3.18)
)
(11,836.62
46 Year 4 October 16000 15,318.64 14,296.59 (1,703.41) 1,703.41 14,695,879.41 3,155.35 0.11 60.49 (3.75)
)
(16,517.98
47 Year 4 November 20000 18,127.45 15,318.64 (4,681.36) 4,681.36 14,849,481.07 3,187.82 0.23 59.71 (5.18)
)
(10,390.53
48 Year 4 December 12000 14,450.98 18,127.45 6,127.45 6,127.45 15,322,319.04 3,249.06 0.51 59.53 (3.20)
)
49 Year 5 January 5000 8,780.39 14,450.98 9,450.98 9,450.98 (939.54) 16,832,497.42 3,375.63 1.89 62.17 (0.28)
50 Year 5 February 2000 4,712.16 8,780.39 6,780.39 6,780.39 5,840.85 17,415,322.00 3,443.72 3.39 67.70 1.70
51 Year 5 March 3000 3,684.86 4,712.16 1,712.16 1,712.16 7,553.01 17,131,325.13 3,409.77 0.57 67.50 2.22
52 Year 5 April 2000 2,673.95 3,684.86 1,684.86 1,684.86 9,237.87 16,856,468.17 3,376.60 0.84 67.82 2.74
53 Year 5 May 7000 5,269.58 2,673.95 (4,326.05) 4,326.05 4,911.81 16,891,530.10 3,394.51 0.62 67.70 1.45
54 Year 5 June 6000 5,707.83 5,269.58 (730.42) 730.42 4,181.39 16,588,603.92 3,345.18 0.12 66.68 1.25
55 Year 5 July 8000 7,083.13 5,707.83 (2,292.17) 2,292.17 1,889.22 16,382,520.89 3,326.03 0.29 65.99 0.57
56 Year 5 August 10000 8,833.25 7,083.13 (2,916.87) 2,916.87 (1,027.64) 16,241,906.52 3,318.73 0.29 65.33 (0.31)
57 Year 5 September 20000 15,533.30 8,833.25 (11,166.75 11,166.75 (12,194.39 18,144,614.10 3,456.41 0.56 65.16 (3.53)

4
 ) )
(16,661.09
58 Year 5 October 20000 18,213.32 15,533.30 (4,466.70) 4,466.70 18,175,765.55 3,473.83 0.22 64.42 (4.80)
)
(20,447.77
59 Year 5 November 22000 20,485.33 18,213.32 (3,786.68) 3,786.68 18,110,734.64 3,479.13 0.17 63.62 (5.88)
)
60 Year 5 December 8000 12,994.13 20,485.33 12,485.33 12,485.33 (7,962.44) 20,406,946.07 3,629.24 1.56 65.16 (2.19)
61 Year 6 January 12,994.13
62 Year 6 February 12,994.13
63 Year 6 March 12,994.13
64 Year 6 April 12,994.13
65 Year 6 May 12,994.13

Numbe Absolute
Error Absolute
r of Year Month Demand Level Ln Forecast Error Bias MSE MAD MAPE TS
(Et) Et/Dt
Months (At)
66 Year 6 June     12,994.13                
67 Year 6 July     12,994.13                
68 Year 6 August     12,994.13                
69 Year 6 September     12,994.13                
70 Year 6 October     12,994.13                
71 Year 6 November     12,994.13                
72 Year 6 December     12,994.13                

Permalan permintaan bulanan untuk tahun ke 6 sebesar 12,994. Dimana untuk nilai

MAD, MSE, MAPE, dan TS setiap tahunnya mengalami kenaikan nilai. Hal ini
5
menunjukkan bahwa dalam peramalan 5 tahun tersebut masih banyak kesalahan-
2. Estimated demand for the next four weeks
a. Moving Average

Absolute Squared
Period Demand Level Forecast Error
Error Error MADt %Error MAPEt TSt
e (t) (dt) (Lt) (Ft) (Et)
(At) (MSEt)
1 108
2 116
3 118
4 124 117
5 96 114 117 21 21 420 21 21 21 1.00
6 119 114 114 -6 6 225 13 5 13 1.15
7 96 109 114 18 18 261 15 19 15 2.25
8 102 103 109 7 7 207 13 7 13 3.14
9 112 107 103 -9 9 181 12 8 12 2.62
10 102 103 107 5 5 156 11 5 11 3.37
11 92 102 103 11 11 151 11 12 11 4.38

6
 12 91 99 102 11 11 147 11 12 11 5.38

a. Exponential Smoothing

Absolute Squared
Period Deman Level Forecas Error MAPE
Error Error MADt %Error TSt
e (t) d (dt) (Lt) t (Ft) (Et) t
(At) (MSEt)
106
1 108 107 106 -2 2 3 2 2 2 -1
2 116 107 107 -10 10 47 6 8 5 -2
3 118 109 107 -11 11 68 7 9 6 -3
4 124 110 109 -15 15 111 9 12 8 -4
5 96 109 110 14 14 128 10 15 9 -2
6 119 110 109 -10 10 125 10 9 9 -3
7 96 108 110 14 14 134 11 14 10 -2
8 102 108 108 6 6 122 10 6 9 -1
9 112 108 108 -4 4 111 10 4 9 -2
10 102 108 108 6 6 103 9 6 8 -1
11 92 106 108 16 16 116 10 17 9 0
7
12 91 104 106 15 15 125 10 16 10 2