Exercise bab 12 :

1 Manufacturing company has monthly demand as follow

Month Sales Fcst 3MA Fcst 5MA F 3WMA Calculate forecast for October using
Feb 520 a. 3 month moving average = 513,33
Mar 490 b. 5 months moving average = 544
Apr 550 c. 3 months weighted moving average
May 580 520.00 517.00 with weight : 0,5; 0,3 and 0,2 = 485
Jun 600 540.00 526.00
Jul 420 576.67 548 569.00
Aug 510 533.33 528 554.00
Sep 610 510.00 532 528.00
Oct 513.33 544 485.00

2 Computer software has data as follow

Period Units Forecast expo Develop for period 9 using exponential smoothing
1 56 - using alpha = 0,4 70.39
2 61 56.00
3 55 58.00 Ft= aDt+(1-a)Ft
4 70 56.80
5 66 62.08
6 65 63.65
7 72 64.19
8 75 67.31
9 70.39

3 Pizza got demand as follow :

Month Sales 4MA 3WMA Expo a = 0,2

Jan 100 - Forecast September sales using :
Feb 80 100.00 a. 4 month moving average -->115
Mar 110 96.00 b. 3 month weighted average using 0.5, 0.3, 0.2 --> 116,5
Apr 115 96 98.80 c. exponential smoothing using an alpha = 0.2 --> 110,63
May 105 101.25 96 102.04
Jun 110 102.50 110.5 102.63
Jul 125 110.00 111 104.11
Aug 120 113.75 110.5 108.28
Sep 115.00 116.5 110.63

4 The monthly sales for A company are

Month Sales
Jan 20 Forecast next January sales using :
Feb 21 --> 3 month moving average
Mar 15 --> 6 month weighted average using 0.1, 0.1, 0.1, 0.2, 0.2, 0.3 with
Apr 14 the heaviest weights applied to the most recent month
May 13 --> exponential smoothing using an alpha = 0.3
Jun 16
Jul 17
Aug 18
Sep 20
Oct 20
Nov 21
Dec 23

5 soal nomor 3 & 4

compare the MAD, MAPD, which are the best method?

6 Itown has a data sales of printer

Using linear regression, develop a forecast for year 11
Year Printer sales
1 381 y = a + bx
2 579 b = slope 16.03
3 312 a = intercept 380.93
4 501
5 296 y = 380,93 + 16,03x
6 415 year 11 y = 380,93 + 16,03 x 11
7 535 557.26
8 592
9 607
10 473

7 Develop a linear regression model for this data

and calculate the forecast for quarter 11

Quarter x y y = a + bx
1 8 12.60 b = slope 1.25
2 12 16.30 a = intercept 1.34
3 7 9.30
4 9 11.50 y = 1,34 + 1,25x
5 15 18.10 quarter 11 y = 1,34 + 1,25 x 11
6 6 7.60 15.09
7 5 6.20
8 8 14.20
9 10 15.00
10 12 17.80
Pizza got demand as follow :

Month Sales 4MA 3WMA Expo a = 0,2

Jan 100 -
Feb 80 100.00
Mar 110 96.00
Apr 115 96 98.80
May 105 101.25 96 102.04
Jun 110 102.50 110.5 102.63
Jul 125 110.00 111 104.11
Aug 120 113.75 110.5 108.28
Sep 115.00 116.5 110.63

compare which one better forecast (moving average or expo)

Month Sales 4MA [Dt-Ft]
Jan 100 MAD = [dt-ft]/n
Feb 80
Mar 110 8.125
Apr 115
May 105 101.25 3.75
Jun 110 102.50 7.5
Jul 125 110.00 15 the best method for this data is Moving
Aug 120 113.75 6.25
Sep 115.00
TOTAL 865 32.5

Month Sales Expo a = 0,2 [Dt-Ft]

Jan 100 - MAD = [dt-ft]/n
Feb 80 100.00 20.00
Mar 110 96.00 14.00 13.305
Apr 115 98.80 16.20
May 105 102.04 2.96
Jun 110 102.63 7.37
Jul 125 104.11 20.89
Aug 120 108.28 11.72
Sep 110.63
TOTAL 865 93.14
 Forecast September sales using :
a. 4 month moving average -->115
b. 3 month weighted average using 0.5, 0.3, 0.2 --> 116,5
c. exponential smoothing using an alpha = 0.2 --> 110,63

D = [dt-ft]/n MAPD = [dt-ft]/dt

0.038

best method for this data is Moving average ( MAD & MAPD is smaller)

D = [dt-ft]/n MAPD = [dt-ft]/dt

0.108