COVID-19 AND

TOURISM
2020: A year in review
 TOURISM IN PRE-PANDEMIC TIMES

1.5 US$ 1.7

billion trillion

INTERNATIONAL MILLIONS OF EXPORT REVENUES GROWING FASTER

TOURISTS JOBS 3rd largest export THAN THE WORLD
International tourist With a high share of category ECONOMY
arrivals in 2019 women 50% of total exports Tourism is a key sector
(10th consecutive year (54% of the workforce) for many small in many advanced and
of sustained growth) and youth developing countries emerging economies
THE IMPACT OF COVID-19 ON
INTERNATIONAL TOURISM
 2020
a timeline marked by closures

23 JANUARY 30 JANUARY 11 MARCH 20 APRIL 1 NOVEMBER

27% of all destinations

Wuhan WHO declares 100% of worldwide
WHO declares worldwide keep their
lockdown the outbreak a destinations have
the outbreak a borders completely
global health introduced travel
pandemic closed for international
emergency restrictions
tourism
 2020
JANUARY–OCTOBER
INTERNATIONAL
TOURIST ARRIVALS

WORLD 2019: 1.5 BILLION (+4%)

WORLD JANUARY–OCTOBER 2020: -72%

MIDDLE ASIA & THE

AMERICAS EUROPE AFRICA EAST PACIFIC
2019 2019 2019 2019 2019
219 MN (+1%) 744 MN (+4%) 70 MN (+2%) 65 MN (+8%) 361 MN (+4%)
JAN–OCT 2020: JAN–OCT 2020: JAN–OCT 2020: JAN–OCT 2020: JAN–OCT 2020:
-68% -68% -69% -73% -82%

SOURCE: WORLD TOURISM ORGANIZATION (UNWTO), DECEMBER 2020

 International Tourist Arrivals (change, %)
0%
-0.4%
-4.0%

-25%

Unprecedented fall of
international tourism -50%

-72.0%
(Jan-Oct)
-75%
2003: 2009: 2020:
SARS Global Economic Crisis COVID-19
INTERNATIONAL
TOURIST
ARRIVALS 1600
GLOBAL ECONOMIC CRISIS (2009)
1459
(MILLONS) 1400
-37 MILLION
-4.0%

SARS EPIDEMIC (2003)

1200
1200 -2 MILLION
-0.4%
956
1000
810
MILLIONS 800
673
COVID-19 PANDEMIC (2020)
600 530 -1.0 TO -1.1 BILLION
-70% TO -75%
438
400 (1990 LEVELS)

200

0
(e) Estimate

)
(e
00

04

08
06

09
05
03
02

07

10
01

14

18
90

16

19
15
13
12
94

98
89

17
96

99
95
93
92

97

11
91

20
20

20
20

20

20

20
20

20
20
20
20

20
20
19

20

20

20
20

20
20
20
19
19

19

19

19
19

19
19

19
19

20
SOURCE:
WORLD TOURISM ORGANIZATION (UNWTO)
DECEMBER 2020
 ESTIMATED
LOSS OF LOSS OF

-72% 900mn US$935bn 10xs

THE
INCOME LOSS
IMPACT INTERNATIONAL TOURIST ARRIVALS INTERNATIONAL TOURIST ARRIVALS IN TOURISM EXPORTS
OF THE 2009 ECONOMIC CRISIS

JANUARY–OCTOBER 2020

JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
INTERNATIONAL
0
TOURIST ARRIVALS, 2020
-1
YTD RESULTS AND SCENARIOS MAY 2020 SCENARIOS
-20 -16
SCENARIO 1: -58%
(Y-O-Y MONTHLY CHANGE, %) SCENARIO 2: -70% ANNUAL CHANGE

SCENARIO 3: -78%
ACTUAL DATA *
-40

Note: These scenarios are not forecasts. They

represent alternative monthly % change in arrivals
based on the gradual opening of national borders
and lifting of travel restrictions on different dates.
(published in May 2020)
-60
* Actual data through October includes estimates
for countries which have not yet reported results.
-65

-80
-77
-81 -80
-91 -83

-100
SOURCE:
WORLD TOURISM ORGANIZATION (UNWTO) -97 -96
DECEMBER 2020
International tourism back to
levels of 30 years ago
-70% to -75% Loss in international tourism
receipts
International tourist arrivals
US$ 1.1 trillion
International tourism could
plunge to levels of Estimated loss in global GDP

1990s over US$ 2 trillion

Loss of international tourist

arrivals
100-120 million
direct tourism jobs at risk
1 billion
 SELECTED
TOURISM
INDICATORS SHORT-TERM RENTALS (AirDNA) -6

2020 OCCUPANCY RATES (STR) -28

(YTD CHANGE, %)*
SEAT CAPACITY - DOMESTIC (ICAO) -38

HOTEL SEARCHES (SOJERN) -47

HOTEL BOOKINGS (SOJERN) -47

SEAT CAPACITY - INTERNATIONAL (ICAO) -62

INT. TOURIST ARRIVALS (UNWTO) -72

*YTD changes correspond to the period January
through November 2020, except for seat capacity
(international and domestic), hotel occupancy
rates and international arrivals (through October). AIR RESERVATIONS (FORWARDKEYS) -81

SOURCE:
SOURCE: VARIOUS (SEE INDICATOR)
DECEMBER 2020
LOOKING AHEAD
 2021–2024
SCENARIOS 1600
1459
1408
1400 1333
2 ½ TO 4 YEARS
1245
TO RECOVER 2019 LEVELS 1203
1200 1148
1103
INTERNATIONAL TOURIST 1050
ARRIVALS
1000

MILLIONS
800
ACTUAL DATA
SCENARIO 1
600
SCENARIO 2
SCENARIO 3
400

200

0
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

SOURCE:
WORLD TOURISM ORGANIZATION (UNWTO)
DECEMBER 2020
 Most tourism
experts do not
expect international
tourism to return to
pre-COVID levels
before 2023

Source: UNWTO Panel of Experts survey, UNWTO World Tourism Barometer, October 2020
 Travel restrictions,
slow virus
containment and
low consumer
confidence: main
barriers to the
recovery of
international
tourism
Source: UNWTO Panel of Experts survey, UNWTO World Tourism Barometer, October 2020
Progressive
decline in
number of
completely
closed
destinations
WHAT HAS CHANGED?
Changes in traveller behaviour
in times of COVID-19
-short-lived trends or here to stay?-
Closer New concerns
Domestic tourism has shown positive signs
Health & Safety measures and
in many markets since people tend to travel
cancellation policies are consumers'
closer. Travellers go for 'staycations' or
main concerns.
vacations close to home.

Get away Last minute

Nature, Rural Tourism and Road Trips have Last-minute bookings have increased
emerged as popular travel choices due to due to volatility of pandemic-related
travel limitations and the quest for open-air events and the travel restrictions.
experiences.
 Changes in traveller behaviour
in times of COVID-19
-short-lived trends or here to stay?-

Younger travellers
More responsible
most resilient
Sustainability, authenticity and localhood:
Change in demographics:
travellers have been giving more
travel recovery has been stronger among
importance to creating a positive impact on
younger segments. 'Mature' travellers and
local communities, increasing looking for
retirees will be the most impacted segments.
authenticity.