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www.safetyandhealthmagazine.com/articles/6368-examining-the-foundation
KEY POINTS
Editor’s Note: This article retains the use of the term “accident” instead of
“incident,” as well as the phrase “unsafe acts of persons,” to be consistent
with the terminology Heinrich used in his book.
Heinrich is best known for his 1931 book, “Industrial Accident Prevention: A
Scientific Approach,” in which he said 88 percent of accidents are caused by
“unsafe acts of persons” and put forth what often is referred to as Heinrich’s
accident triangle or pyramid: In a group of 330 accidents, 300 will result in no
injuries, 29 will result in minor injuries and one will result in a major injury.
Neither premise sits well with Michael Taubitz, founder and principal
consultant of Lean Journey LLC in Fenton, MI. He called Heinrich’s views a
“constraint” on safety professionals who are trying to attack high-severity, low-
probability incidents.
Wrapped up in this issue are questions about Heinrich’s data and conclusions,
and if theories espoused 80 years ago even apply today.
Basic principles
Heinrich was an assistant superintendent in the engineering and inspection
division of Travelers Insurance Co. in Hartford, CT. For his book, he reviewed
75,000 injury and illness cases – 12,000 from insurance records and 63,000
from plant managers – as well as actuarial and engineering reports.
The book introduces 10 “axioms of industrial safety,” the first of which states:
“The occurrence of an injury invariably results from a completed sequence of
factors – one factor being the accident itself.” That sums up Heinrich’s domino
theory. He believed the following five factors must be present for an accident
to occur:
Decades later, Heinrich’s theories – including the domino theory and accident
triangle – continue to draw followers and critics. In his 2002 book, “Heinrich
Revisited: Truisms or Myths,” published by the National Safety Council, Fred
A. Manuele questioned the validity of the 300-29-1 ratio, noting that Heinrich
revised it without explanation in subsequent editions of his book.
Another issue Manuele raised was that the original files Heinrich used do not
exist, preventing others from reviewing his work.
James Howe, head of Safety Solutions in Medford, OR, and former assistant
director of health and safety for the United Auto Workers, also takes issue
with the ratio.
“The pyramid theory has really done a disservice to the safety profession,” he
said, “because it has misled people running safety programs into thinking that
if they work on minor incidents, major incidents will go away. And many, many
companies are aware that that is not the case.” In fact, he said, certain
companies with award-winning low injury rates have suffered some of the
worst catastrophic incidents during the past 10 years.
In refuting Heinrich’s work, Manuele singled out the 88-10-2 ratio of accident
causation as having the most influence and causing the most harm to the
safety profession.
“Why harm? Because when basing safety efforts on the premise that man
failure causes the most accidents, the preventive efforts are directed at the
worker rather than on the operating system in which the work is done,”
Manuele wrote.
Erickson holds that view as well. She cited a 2010 study from the National
Opinion Research Center at the University of Chicago that found 85 percent of
workers rated workplace safety as the most important labor standard. The
findings fit with Erickson’s observations as a consultant and safety manager,
yet she was struck by the dichotomy between that and what Heinrich said.
Howe echoed that concern. “I do think what people don’t realize is that it was
flawed data to begin with,” he said. “I don’t think he miscounted reports or was
misreporting the data. I think he was probably accurately reporting bad data. I
think that’s the problem. I think it has not served us well. It has hurt the
profession an awful lot.”
But when they took their case to senior management, Heinrich’s triangle “was
a huge barrier to try to open eyes that something different is happening,”
Taubitz continued. “The belief that if we drove minor injury rates almost to
zero that somehow magically we would eliminate fatalities was a pervasive
thought in the industry.”
That belief is “just wrong” and hinders efforts to advance safety and risk
reduction, according to Bruce Main, president of Design Safety Engineering
Inc. in Ann Arbor, MI.
“I think, fundamentally, Heinrich’s ideas were useful at the time, but I think it’s
time for us to completely debunk Heinrich’s theories and ideas and start
fresh,” Main said. “I’ve seen Heinrich’s ideas abused many times, and I’d like
this whole idea to be given its fair due and then dismissed because it no
longer applies.”
“When an idea has come to the point where nobody questions it, you lose that
balance. I think we’ve lost a little bit of that balance,” Pardy said.
Redeeming qualities
A common charge against Heinrich is that he blamed the worker for workplace
accidents. But LoMastro said critics are interpreting Heinrich’s theory the
wrong way.
“The fact that most accidents result in unsafe behavior doesn’t mean the
worker did it on purpose,” he said, adding that a worker may have been given
poor training or improper tools.
Indeed, while Heinrich said unsafe acts of persons caused most accidents, his
eighth axiom states: “Management has the best opportunity and ability to
prevent accident occurrence, and therefore should assume the
responsibility.”
Erickson noted that Heinrich’s work reflects the prevailing attitude of his times.
Before him, Frederick Taylor had developed the concept of scientific
management to increase industrial efficiency and productivity, and Henry Ford
had started using the assembly line to manufacture cars. As Erickson put it,
workers were viewed as a cog in the wheel.
Although not a fan of Heinrich’s beliefs, Pardy gives him credit for focusing on
the human side of safety. Nevertheless, he said that the workplace has
changed dramatically since 1930. Employers face an aging workforce and
young workers with different values and expectations, making Heinrich’s work
a starting point rather than the end.
“I think what Heinrich’s book did in the ’30s, it gave us the foundation,” Pardy
said.
Value of research
If Heinrich was wrong, then what is the correct model for incident prevention?
Taubitz said the profession does not have a perfect model to help forecast
severe accidents and fatalities, but he recommended a task-based approach.
Main, also a proponent of task-based risk assessments, suggested replacing
Heinrich with “prevention through design.”
Beyond Heinrich, Erickson called research “pivotal” in ensuring that employers
do not waste time, money and effort on unproven interventions.