Downloadable report GCM compareR

28/05, 2021

Introduction

This report was automatically generated with the GCM compareR shiny app.
The app is intended at assisting ecologists, conservationists and policy makers in the process of understanding
differences between General Circulation Models (GCMs) projections on a geographic area, and in the triage
of subsets of GCMs for their specific needs. It includes options to perform analyses that assess how different
are projections from current climatic conditions and among them.

Note

This report will print “## NULL” when one of the results has not been visualized in the app. Please, make
sure that you create all the results before downloading the report if you want to include these figures in your
report.
The only results not included here are the tables underlying the scatterplots. This data can be downloaded in
.csv format directly from the app using a specific button located on the left panel of the corresponding tab.

Parameters used for the analysis

The parameters used in the session were:

• Year: 2070
• RCP rcp45.
• Bioclimatic variables: .
The geografic area was defined using the following settings:
## - The option country names
## - Country(s) selected: Bolivia
## - Cropped to bounding-box:

1
Results

Selected GCMs

The following are simply maps of the study area for the selected bioclimatic variables as interpreted by each
GCM, also including maps for the baseline (current climatic conditions) and the mean ensemble resulting
from the average of values in all selected models. Every layer is plotted using the same color scale, permitting
the direct comparison of the projections by each GCM, the mean ensemble and the baseline climate.
## $bio_1

Annual Mean Temperature (bio 1, °C) − Unmodified GCMs

BASELINE ENSEMBLE bcc_csm1_1_m bcc_csm1_1 bnu_esm cccma_canesm2 cesm1_bgc
10°S 30
12°S
14°S
16°S
18°S
20°S
22°S 25
cesm1_cam5 csiro_access1_0csiro_access1_3 csiro_mk3_6_0 fio_esm gfdl_cm3 gfdl_esm2g

20

gfdl_esm2m giss_e2_h_cc giss_e2_r_cc giss_e2_r inm_cm4 ipsl_cm5a_lr ipsl_cm5a_mr

10°S
12°S
Latitude

14°S
16°S 15
18°S
20°S
22°S
lasg_fgoals_g2miroc_esm_chem miroc_esm miroc_miroc5mohc_hadgem2_cc
mohc_hadgem2_es mpi_esm_lr
10

5
mri_cgcm3 ncar_ccsm4 ncc_noresm1_mnimr_hadgem2_ao
10°S
12°S
14°S
16°S
18°S
20°S 0
22°S

68°W 64°W 60°W 68°W 64°W 60°W

Longitude

##
## $bio_12

2
 Annual Precipitation (bio 12, mm) − Unmodified GCMs
BASELINE ENSEMBLE bcc_csm1_1_m bcc_csm1_1 bnu_esm cccma_canesm2 cesm1_bgc
10°S
12°S
4000
14°S
16°S
18°S
20°S
22°S 3500
cesm1_cam5 csiro_access1_0csiro_access1_3 csiro_mk3_6_0 fio_esm gfdl_cm3 gfdl_esm2g

3000

gfdl_esm2m giss_e2_h_cc giss_e2_r_cc giss_e2_r inm_cm4 ipsl_cm5a_lr ipsl_cm5a_mr 2500

10°S
12°S
Latitude

14°S
16°S
18°S 2000
20°S
22°S
lasg_fgoals_g2miroc_esm_chem miroc_esm miroc_miroc5mohc_hadgem2_cc
mohc_hadgem2_es mpi_esm_lr
1500

1000

mri_cgcm3 ncar_ccsm4 ncc_noresm1_m

nimr_hadgem2_ao
10°S
12°S
14°S 500
16°S
18°S
20°S
22°S

68°W 64°W 60°W 68°W 64°W 60°W

Longitude

3
Variation from present

The results from comparing GCM projections with current climatic conditions (BASELINE) are presented
here. They can be used to identify which GCMs forecast larger or smaller changes in climate (e.g. units of
increase in mean annual temperature), to diagnose in which direction are produced those changes (e.g. some
models might project an average reduction in annual precipitation and others an increase) and to visualize a
spatial pattern in the predicted change.
The next scatterplots show the averaged projected value for two selected bioclimatic variables is plotted for
each GCM, the ensemble and the baseline, similarly to the method described in Vano et al. (2015):
• Here, values in the axis of the plot show the average value for each bioclimatic variable:

cesm1_cam5

mri_cgcm3 nimr_hadgem2_ao
bcc_csm1_1
fio_esm
ncc_noresm1_m
mpi_esm_lr
(bio 12) Annual Precipitation (mm)

1200 giss_e2_r_cc gfdl_esm2g

cesm1_bgc
gfdl_esm2m
lasg_fgoals_g2 bcc_csm1_1_m csiro_access1_3
giss_e2_h_cc ncar_ccsm4 ipsl_cm5a_lr
BASELINE
giss_e2_r ENSEMBLE
mohc_hadgem2_cc
miroc_miroc5
csiro_access1_0 mohc_hadgem2_es
1100 csiro_mk3_6_0
bnu_esm
inm_cm4
miroc_esm

miroc_esm_chem
ipsl_cm5a_mr
cccma_canesm2
1000
gfdl_cm3

21 22 23 24
(bio 1) Annual Mean Temperature (ºC)

• In this other figure, values in the axis of the plot show the difference in respect to the baseline of the
average value for each bioclimatic variable (so, the indicate change projected in average by each layer):

4
 cesm1_cam5
100 mri_cgcm3
nimr_hadgem2_ao
bcc_csm1_1
fio_esm
mpi_esm_lr ncc_noresm1_m
(bio 12) Annual Precipitation (mm)

giss_e2_r_cc cesm1_bgc gfdl_esm2g

gfdl_esm2m
lasg_fgoals_g2 bcc_csm1_1_m csiro_access1_3
giss_e2_h_cc ncar_ccsm4 ipsl_cm5a_lr
0 BASELINE
giss_e2_r ENSEMBLE
mohc_hadgem2_cc
miroc_miroc5
csiro_access1_0
mohc_hadgem2_es
csiro_mk3_6_0

bnu_esm
inm_cm4 miroc_esm
−100
miroc_esm_chem
ipsl_cm5a_mr
cccma_canesm2

gfdl_cm3

0 1 2 3 4
(bio 1) Annual Mean Temperature (ºC)

Lastly, the following maps show the spatial variation of the changes projected by GCMs when compared with
the current climate (baseline), also including the average ensemble.
## NULL
In addition, the next set of maps show the variation as a percentage relative to the climate of each pixel.
In some cases, extreme values in temperature or precipitation in a sector of the study area might make
difficult the visualization of large changes in other sectors that naturally have smaller values (e.g. changes in
precipitation in an arid region next to a humid mountain will not be easy to detect, because the map’s color
scale is skewed by the large values of the second sector). This visualization shows the projected changes as a
percentage of change with respect to the current conditions.
## NULL

5
Variation among futures

The following results focus on differences within the universe of selected GCMs. As a first step, a mean
ensemble climate projection is calculated by averaging the value in each downscaled GCM on a pixel basis.
Then, the value in each model is compared to the ensemble, to determine whether its projection is greater or
smaller than the average.
The scatterplots are centered on the average ensemble (0, 0 coordinates), and each GCM is plotted using
their mean difference to the ensemble values.
• This first plot is made with scaled values of differences. A circle indicates 2 standard deviations from
the ensemble mean.

2
(bio 12) Annual Precipitation (mm)

1 cesm1_cam5
mri_cgcm3
fio_esm bcc_csm1_1
nimr_hadgem2_ao
mpi_esm_lr ncc_noresm1_m cesm1_bgc gfdl_esm2m
giss_e2_r_ccbcc_csm1_1_m
gfdl_esm2g csiro_access1_3
giss_e2_h_cc
lasg_fgoals_g2 mohc_hadgem2_cc ipsl_cm5a_lr
0
giss_e2_r ncar_ccsm4
csiro_mk3_6_0
miroc_miroc5
csiro_access1_0
inm_cm4 mohc_hadgem2_es
bnu_esm miroc_esm_chem miroc_esm
−1 ipsl_cm5a_mr
cccma_canesm2
gfdl_cm3

−2

−2 −1 0 1 2
(bio 1) Annual Mean Temperature (ºC)

• To the contrary, differences are not scaled in the following plot. The figure is equivalent to those
included in the Variation from present tab, but this one is centered on the ensemble, not in the baseline.
## NULL
The maps show now the spatial distribution of each GCM deviations with respect to the average ensemble.
## NULL
In addition, the next set of maps show the variation as a percentage relative to the climate of each pixel.
In some cases, extreme values in temperature or precipitation in a sector of the study area might make
difficult the visualization of large changes in other sectors that naturally have smaller values (e.g. changes in
precipitation in an arid region next to a humid mountain will not be easy to detect, because the map’s color
scale is skewed by the large values of the second sector). This visualization shows the projected changes as a
percentage of change with respect to the current conditions.
## NULL