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-+Ali / +N

January 24th, 2020 “Anything I come across that feels impossible, I probably need to take a
Volume 209, Issue 914 second look.”
Week 4 - Joe Gebbia (Co-founder, AirBnb)
Highlights: MARKET COMMENTARY
SUDDEN SURGE!
• Pressure on. A sudden surge of tonnage pre-Chinese New Year holidays has started to put pressure on
recycling markets once again, particularly as the already limited number of Recyclers of large
LDT tonnage has started to get booked up.

There is a shortage of capable and performing End Buyers, especially those whose banks will
• Buyer shortage. sanction large Dollar value L/Cs on the heavier lightweight units (Capesize bulkers, VLOCs
and VLCCs) and this seems to be (with the exception of tankers) one of the most active
sectors for the recycling of older assets at present.

After a stunning surge which saw prices improve by over USD 35/LDT over December and
• Caution issued. the early part of January, consecutive days of steel declines in India have started to put
downward pressure on the local market. As such, it is worth issuing a cautionary note as we
head into the long Lunar / Chinese New Year holidays this week that there may ensue
several weeks of softer activity and dampened prices / demand as a result.

• Supply increase. If the current trends persist - with poorer freight rates (particularly on dry bulk vessels) - then
the markets may well see a deluge of tonnage for recycling after the holidays and that will
certainly put downward pressure on prices once again, just as some improved levels and
market stability had started to be seen of late.

• 400/LDT risk. Prices in both India and Bangladesh have surged above the USD 400/LDT mark in recent
times (particularly for favored container units), but all of that could be in danger if supply
starts to outstrip demand and fundamentals suffer going into February.

Finally, the Turkish market has already started to suffer, with price declines on the back of
• Turkey tumbles. falling steel prices being reported this week.

For week 4 of 2020, GMS demo rankings / pricing for the week are as below.

Demo Dry Bulk Tankers Containers

Location Sentiment
Rank USD / LDT USD / LDT USD / LDT
1 India Steady USD 390 / LT USD 400 / LT USD 410 / LT
2 Bangladesh Steady USD 380 / LT USD 390 / LT USD 400 / LT
3 Pakistan Steady USD 370 / LT USD 380 / LT USD 390 / LT
4 Turkey Declining USD 230 / MT USD 240 / MT USD 240 / MT
\

All at GMS would like to wish readers a Happy Chinese New Year!!
 GMS Weekly Page 2 of 8

BANGLADESH

TONNAGE FOR ALL!BANGLADESH

BANGLADESH
The recent efforts by Bangladeshi Buyers to keep up with a rampant Indian market
Competition high.
have somewhat slowed, as a fresh batch of vessels introduced into the market this
week seems to have convinced local Recyclers that there is plenty of tonnage to go
around for all markets to bid on, even at comparatively reduced rates.
BANGLADESH
The majority of the recently concluded large LDT dry units (particularly VLOCs of
38K – 40K LDT) have been committed into Bangladesh this year and the number of
BANGLADESH
capable and open End Buyers is already starting to dwindle as a result.

Stem the flow. Chinese New Year holidays may be coming at an opportune time this week, in order
to stem the flow of tonnage and bring back a bit of confidence / aggression to
BANGLADESH
continue buying units post holidays.

BANGLADESH

BANGLADESH

NO MARKET SALES REPORTED

Page 3 of 8 GMS Weekly

INDIA

INDIA
NERVES OF STEEL!

INDIA
As the highest placed sub-continent market, there were a few nervous wobbles in India
Fundamentals wobble.
this week as consecutive days of steel declines (by almost USD 8/LDT) temporarily
bought a halt to the buying mid-week and an easing in previously surging sentiments.
INDIA
However, subsequent gains towards the end of the week seemed to put the market
back on a positive track and several market and private deals were concluded to Alang
Buyers, at continuingly firmer rates.
INDIA
The INR continues to trade into the low Rs. 71s against the U.S. Dollar, in encouraging
NK yard addition.
signs on local fundamentals as the markets gear up for a potentially busy year ahead –
INDIA
especially with charter rates starting to soften and higher VLSFO prices that would
compel more vessels to be introduced for scrap.

On the sales front, at least two units were concluded to local Recyclers as the Russian
INDIA
owned AMUR (3,861 LDT) was committed basis a rather firm USD 416/LT LDT.
Additionally, bulk carrier ULA (LDT 8,040) was committed basis an India / Pakistan
delivery – however, given ongoing Pakistani reticence to offer on units, she will more
than likely end up in India.
INDIA
Finally, GMS is proud to announce the accession to class NK HKC status of Leela
affiliate yard Efcee Global Ship Recycling Yard, Plot number 84-D, in further
encouraging strides and raised standards made in the industry.

MARKET SALES REPORTED

VESSEL NAME TYPE LDT REPORTED PRICE

AMUR General Cargo 3,861 USD 416/LT LDT
ULA Bulk Carrier 8,040 USD 388/LT LDT
 Page 5 of 8 GMS Weekly Page 4 of 8

PAKISTAN

UNABLE TO ACQUIRE! INDIA

INDIA
The Gadani market unfortunately remains positioned some ways behind their sub-
Positioned behind. continent competitors and despite an increase in supply, local Recyclers have been
unable to get their hands on any market / private tonnage that has been proposed for sale
of late. INDIA
The import of Iranian steel has halted and this should hopefully bring back pricing to
more of an even keel, yet there remains a real lack of confidence to go and acquire at
INDIA
serious and competitive levels in Pakistan, having been on the sidelines for over two
years now.
Lingering hope.
There is perhaps the lingering hope in Gadani that the increased supply of tonnage
INDIA
should see vessels trickle down, even to their competitively lower placed market, yet, we
shall see whether this situation materializes in due course (or not).

INDIA
Buyers ready to acquire

INDIA

NO MARKET SALES REPORTED

 Page 5 of 8 GMS Weekly

TURKEY

FACING THE UNEXPECTED!

Even though the Turkish market was struggling through the maddening shortage of
tonnage that has really affected the domestic ship recycling sector, fundamentals and Steel declines USD
prices had firmed over the last month and provided a degree of confidence to local 25/MT.
Buyers that should the availability of tonnage improve in 2020 (thanks to the low
Sulphur regulations that came into effect), the Turkish market would be ready and be a
suitable alternative to the subcontinent markets.

Unfortunately, local steel prices have declined by a noteworthy USD 25/MT, resulting in
local offerings rolling back in kind. Even the Turkish Lira has started to decline this week
as it approaches TRY 6.0 mark against the U.S. Dollar. Increasingly dire
situation.
Making matters worse have been the firming sub-continent markets and the increasingly
widening pricing gap between the 2 locations (at nearly USD 200/Ton), ensuring that
other than offshore units coming in from EU waters for green recycling, the chances of
Aliaga Recyclers picking up any prospective market units in the near future is all but
impossible.

As a result, an increasingly dire situation for the Turkish market is about to unfold in the
coming weeks.

NO MARKET SALES REPORTED

 Miscellaneous Page 6 of 8
i

FUN FACTS
 Bullfrogs do not sleep.
 The dark region on the north pole of Pluto’s moon, Charon, is called Mordor.
 Eight of the ten largest statues in the world are of Buddhas.
 In 2015, a silver coin with Superman on the heads side was made which is legal tender in Canada. There was
only 350,000 produced.
 It took the creator of the Rubik’s Cube, Erno Rubik, one month to solve the cube after he created it; as of June
2018 the world record is 4.22 seconds.
 Japanese square watermelons are ornamental plants and are not edible.
 Tigers have striped skin not just striped fur. The stripes are like fingerprints and no two tigers have the same
pattern.
 Ketchup originated in China as a boiled-down brine of pickled fish and spices called ‘ke-chiap’.
 In Morse Code -.- means k.
 In 2005, a fortune cookie company called Wonton Food Inc. correctly foretold lottery numbers, resulting in 110
winners and an investigation. No fraud was involved.
 Two PlayStation 1 games, FIFA 2001 and Gran Turismo 2, has scratch & sniff discs. The FIFA 2001 smelled
like a soccer field, while Gran Turismo 2 smelled like car tires.

IMPORTANT DATES
INDIA
BANK HOLIDAYS BEACHING TIDES

January 26 – Republic Day January 21 – January 30

No Holidays in February February 07 – February 15
February 22 – February 28

BANGLADESH
BANK HOLIDAYS BEACHING TIDES

February 21 – Shaheed Day January 26 – January 29

February 10 – February 13
February 26 – February 29

IMPORTANT BANK HOLIDAYS

CHINA PAKISTAN TURKEY

January 24 –30 – Chinese New Year No holidays in January No holidays in January + February
No holidays in February February 05 – Kashmir Day

Prices indicated above are as reported in the market and are not necessarily accurate. This information is provided without prejudice and is given in
good faith and without any guarantees whatsoever. While every care has been taken in the preparation of this report, no liability can be accepted for
any loss incurred in any way whatsoever by any person relying on the information contained herein. Opinions expressed herein may be deemed
subjective and arbitrary. This WEEKLY is intended only for the person or entity to which it is addressed and may contain confidential and/or
privileged material. Any review, retransmission, dissemination or other use of this information by persons or entities other than the intended
recipient is prohibited.
 Page 7 of 8 GMS Port Report

ALANG - Port Position as of January 24, 2020

No. VESSEL NAME LDT TYPE STATUS
1 Abi - 2 3,856 Barge Arrived January 23
2 GC (Under Tow) 30,174 LNG Arrived January 23
3 Denas 1,374 Oil Tanker Arrived January 13
4 Fan 4 1,126 Utility Vessel Beached January 23
5 Fan 6 580 Utility Vessel Beached January 23
6 Lotus 3,312 Oil Tanker Beached January 21
7 Maha 8,350 Gas Carrier Arrived January 24
8 Sawasdee Laemchabang 6,952 Container Arrived January 19
9 Sinokor Ulsan 2,942 Container Arrived January 20
10 Zulu 7 (Under Tow) 115 Crew Boat Beached January 23
11 Zulu 9 (Under Tow) 156 Crew Boat Beached January 23
Total Tonnage 58,937

CHATTOGRAM - Port Position as of January 24, 2020

No. VESSEL NAME LDT TYPE STATUS
1 Berge Hua Shuan 40,394 Bulk Carrier Arrived January 21
2 Bold Endurance 5,839 Cable Layer / Support Vessel Arrived January 21
3 Ji Tai No. 8 2,091 Tanker Arrived January 16
4 Jin Xing 5,355 Bulk / Log Carrier Arrived January 20
5 Karadeniz Powership Ragip Bey 1,469 Offshore Supply Vessel Arrived January 21
6 Trinity Explorer 959 Accommodation Vessel Arrived January 22
Total Tonnage 56,107

GADANI - Port Position as of January 24, 2020

No. VESSEL NAME LDT TYPE STATUS
1 Hua Wei 7 2,371 Oil / Chemical Tanker Arrived January 21
Total Tonnage 2,371
WHILE EXTREME CARE HAS BEEN TAKEN IN THE PREPARATION OF THIS REPORT, NO LIABILITY CAN BE ACCEPTED FOR ANY LOSS INCURRED IN ANY WAY
WHATSOEVER BY ANY PERSON RELYING ON THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN.
 Steel Plate Prices Page 8 of 8

INDIA STEEL INDIA STEEL PAKISTAN STEEL PAKISTAN BANGLADESH STEEL BANGLADESH CHINA STEEL
DATE
PRICES USD/T PRICES PRICES USD/T STEEL PRICES PRICES USD/T STEEL PRICES PRICES USD/T
1/18/2020 423.47 30,100.00 568.48 88,000.00 465.50 39,800.00 368.77
1/19/2020 423.47 30,100.00 568.48 88,000.00 465.50 39,800.00 368.77
1/20/2020 420.53 29,900.00 568.66 88,000.00 465.50 39,800.00 369.92
1/21/2020 415.73 29,600.00 569.21 88,000.00 465.50 39,800.00 370.23
1/22/2020 415.73 29,600.00 569.03 88,000.00 465.50 39,800.00 368.90
1/23/2020 418.13 29,800.00 569.03 88,000.00 465.50 39,800.00 368.78
1/24/2020 422.28 30,100.00 569.03 88,000.00 465.50 39,800.00 368.78

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