FOREWORD

Zimbabwe has experienced the most devastating natural disaster in the

country’s recorded history. Cyclone Idai hit the eastern part of
Zimbabwe on 15th March 2019. Strong winds and heavy rain totaling
200mm to 600mm (equivalent to 1–2 seasons) caused flash flooding
across parts of the provinces of Manicaland, Mashonaland East and
Masvingo, which are home to 44 % of the country’s population. At
least 344 people have been recorded dead and at least 257 people are
still missing, and about 60,000 people have been displaced by the
Cyclone.
Cyclone Idai has had a devastating impact on an already fragile
region. It is the latest natural disaster in a succession of economic and
climatic shocks. THe El Nino induced drought linked to climate
variability and change, had already put the affected areas at high risk of
food insecurity, further escalating the surge in the number of poor and
vulnerable households recorded over the past 6 months. THe likely
ripple effects on the entire region are also significant, as the affected
regions produced 1/3 of total agricultural output in Zimbabwe. THe
impacts of these crises are further compounded by broader national
challenges associated with limited fiscal space, liquidity challenges,
high public debt, and a difficult “political” environment which will
make the Cyclone recovery more difficult to mobilize support for.
THe impact of Cyclone Idai is compounding Zimbabwe’s already fragile humanitarian situation.
Tropical Cyclone Idai made landfall over eastern Zimbabwe on 15 March 2019, producing heavy
rains and strong winds impacting nine districts in three provinces of Manicaland, Masvingo, and
Mashonaland East, and severely impacting Chimanimani and Chipinge districts (in Manicaland).
THe cyclone caused substantial flooding, resulting in numerous deaths and significant damage to
infrastructure, property, crops, and livestock. THis included damage to water distribution and water
infrastructure, as well as an elevated risk of water-borne diseases, including cholera. To date, the
Cyclone left 270,000 people in need of humanitarian assistance, including 129,600 children, more
than 10,000 newly displaced people, and has exacerbated already high emergency-level malnutrition
rates.1 THe Government of Zimbabwe (GoZ) declared an emergency on 16 March 2019, activating a
government-led response directed by the Civil Protection Unit (CPU) in coordination with
humanitarian partners, the military, and sub-national flood command centres.

Cyclone Idai has displaced close to 17,000 households, many of whom lost their homes in
landslides that wiped away entire villages, neighborhoods and growth points. THe worst-
affected district is Chimanimani with 8,000 households displaced. Other districts are: Chipinge
3,000; Buhera 1,000 and Mutare, 4000. Nyanga district also has displaced households, although the
extent is yet to be established. THe United Nations (UN) estimates that all displaced households
require shelter, food and nonfood items (NFIs) for the next 13 months. 5 About 25,300 refugees and
host community persons from the area surrounding the Tongogara Refugee Camp (TRC) were also
affected, as 49 percent of the shelters in the camp were completely or partially destroyed. Slowness
in the immediate response has meant that few of the affected persons have access to shelter at the
Skyline temporary camp where most agencies are camping offering services onsite. Rebuilding
homesteads in a debilitating economic environment is a huge challenge for most affected households
who have lost all their assets through the cyclone. THis is particularly the case as the required
building material is not able to reach the most affected districts, and continued rock and landslides
mean that reconstruction might not be advisable even if material is made available.

The damage to food production has been extensive, as the affected areas accounted for one-
third of national agriculture production and the third largest maize growing province in the
country.6 Initial estimates indicate that the cyclone has damaged 24,300 hectares (ha) of food and
cash crops in Chipinge (24,000 ha) and Chimanimani (300 ha) alone, and that 37 per cent (121,000
people) of the rural population in Chipinge district will require urgent food assistance,while 77
percent (114,000 people) in Chimanimani will need food assistance. 7 Household income and food
security in the region has also been severely impacted by agricultural losses already impacted by the
El Niño related drought, and now devastated by Cyclone Idai. THe loss of food production is
particularly large since the cyclone coincided with the annual harvest period. Prior to the cyclone, the
food security situation in Manicaland and part of Masvingo provinces was already serious—all
districts had been classified as being in IPC 3 and the district of Buhera as being in IPC 4. 8 Based on
the previous season production data, an estimated amount of 82,313 MT 9 of maize is at risk of being
lost. Estimated at 2016 price, 10 the total value of the losses for maize would be US$27 million,
assuming 100 percent losses. Beyond the potential direct impact on yield losses, supply chain shocks
will raise prices drastically and affect supply of essential food products to main urban markets,
including Harare. About 70 percent of the population (1,752,698) in Manicaland province would be
food insecure because of the cyclone and the El Niño induced drought. 11 THe cyclone also devastated
16 percent of a herd of 257,309 livestock in Chipinge, Chimanimani and Buhera. Agricultural
markets within the area are dysfunctional due to roads inaccessibility, and the timber industry has
been significantly hampered by damaged roads, including for exports through the Beira corridor.

Cyclone Idai has caused significant infrastructure damage and has affected service-delivery
in Zimbabwe. Key road infrastructure to the country’s two worst affected districts which lie on the
border with Mozambique have been destroyed—the UN estimated that that 95 per cent of the road
network and at least ten critical bridges have been damaged or destroyed in Chimanimani alone after
the cyclone hit,12,13 hampering the rescue and recovery effort, and severely limiting the supply of
goods and transportation to and from the region. 14 Large portions of the region are still in the dark as
downed electricity pylons have not been restored due to impassable roads. THe floods also
compromised access to safe water, basic sanitation and hygiene practices in both rural and urban
areas. damaging water supply stations Schools and health facilities have also been severely damaged,
and many have been closed and inaccessible, unable to operate due to the flooding in the region.
The infrastructure damage will have long-term negative local and regional impact. THe Beira
Corridor, which is the lifeline not only for the interior
Objectives
THe Zimbabwe Rapid Impact and Needs Assessment (RINA) aims to support GoZ efforts “to
identify and quantify the damages caused by the cyclone, develop sector and cross cutting recovery
strategies and broadly estimate the corresponding recovery needs and assistance required by the
country.” THis could lead to potentially developing a recovery framework and to facilitate the
government’s recovery planning efforts. THis will entail the following key activities:

• Identify, assess and quantify the social, infrastructure and environmental impact of the cyclone;
• Develop sector and cross-cutting recovery strategies and estimate the corresponding recovery
needs;
• Launch an analysis of DRM systems and capacity-building needs, including for preparedness and
resilience building in Zimbabwe.

• ZIMBABWE
• RAPID IMPACT
• AND NEEDS
• ASSESSMENT
• ( RINA )
• May 2019
• BACKGROUND AND GENERAL INFORMATION

4.1 Agro-ecological Zones (Natural Regions)

Zimbabwe is divided into five agro-ecological regions. Chipinge and Chimanimani in

Manicaland province have all the five regions in varying sizes, while Mberengwa and Mvuma in
Midlands province; Mwenezi and Chiredzi in Masvingo province have agroecological zones III
to V. The six districts in Matabeleland South province are also made up of Natural Regions III
to V. The main characteristics of the agro-ecological zones are given in Box I below.
Box I: Main Agro-ecological Regions in Zimbabwe.

Natural Region I: It is characterized by high altitude, cool temperatures with average annual temperatures
normally below 15oC, and high, reliable rainfall of over 1 000 mm. It is intensively used for dairy farming,
forestry, tea, coffee, fruit farming, vegetables and in the valleys, maize. 24% of the communal farmland falls in
this region.

Natural Region II: It is intensively cropped farmland, which receives on average 700 – 1 000 mm of rainfall
annually. Areas that fall within this region are ideal for rainfed agriculture with the main crops being maize,
tobacco, vegetables, winter wheat and cotton. 22% of the communal farm areas falls in Natural Region II.

Natural Region III: Climatic conditions favor semi-intensive agriculture. Annual rainfall ranges from 650 to
800 mm, mostly in the form of infrequent heavy storms. Severe mid-season dry spells are common and, as a
result, good farm management is required to retain moisture during the growing season. Rainfed cultivation of
drought-resistant crops such as cotton, soya beans, pearl millet and sorghum is ideal. Water storage and
irrigation are needed for other crops. It accounts for 43% of communal land.

Natural Region IV: This hot, lower -lying land, is subject to seasonal drought and has a mean annual rainfall
of 450 to 650 mm with periodic seasonal droughts and severe dry spells during the rainy season. Suited to
semi-intensive animal husbandry, it is marginal for rainfed maize cultivation. There is a high proportion (62%)
of communal land.

Natural Region V: Without irrigation, this very hot, low-lying zone, with less than 450 mm annual rainfall, is
suitable only for extensive animal husbandry. 45% is occupied by communal land.

Sources: Gore et al (eds.) 1992, Hopes 1996, Ministry of Lands: Agriculture and Rural Resettlement 1989

The agro-ecological zones generally determine the agro-economic activity and land use pattern.
Most of the communal areas are in the drier natural regions, and given the poor resource base
and the poor soils, agricultural production in these areas tend to be low under dryland conditions.
Map 2 and Table 4.1 show the distribution of land over the five natural regions in the areas
affected.
Map 2: Agro-ecological Zones of Zimbabwe
Table 4.1: Distribution of land over agro-ecological zones
Introduction

1. Cyclone Idai and subsequent flooding and landslides affected Malawi,

Mozambique, and Zimbabwe over the period of March 4–17 th, 2019, with severe
repercussions for an already fragile part of Southern Africa and raising the prospects of
significant cross-border impact. The cyclone has affected around two million people
across the three countries and left a trail of destruction with many people dead, missing or
displaced, as well as crops and livestock lost and critical infrastructure destroyed.
Regional effects are already being felt through trade disruptions, disease outbreaks, and
rising outmigration. The Beira corridor is a trading route for countries, including Malawi,
Zambia and Zimbabwe, that links landlocked countries to the ocean through the port of
Beira. The cyclone interrupted trade through the Beira corridor, including supply of
essential goods, seriously affecting already volatile prices, exchange rates, and trade
revenues, particularly in Zimbabwe. Cyclone winds and floods destroyed or damaged
critical infrastructure such as roads and bridges, as well as buildings in Beira used to
facilitate trade, such as warehouses. The scale of the cyclone and cumulative effects from
preceding shocks on an already fragile region could also lead to rising outmigration—to
illustrate, about 0.5 million Zimbabweans migrated to neighboring countries as a direct
consequence of the droughts in 2002 and 2004, and historical evidence suggests that this is
likely to cause severe socioeconomic strain in receiving countries. With the Ministry of
Health in Mozambique declaring a cholera outbreak on March 27 th, 2019 and over 4,000
cases of cholera recorded along the corridor as of May 1 st, 2019, a coordinated regional
effort to control the spread of diseases is critical.

2. The unprecedented scale of impact of Cyclone Idai, on Zimbabwe represents the

country’s most devastating recorded natural disaster, compounding the country’s
already fragile humanitarian situation. Tropical Cyclone Idai made landfall over eastern
Zimbabwe on March 15th, 2019, producing heavy rains and strong winds impacting the
provinces of Manicaland, Masvingo, and Mashonaland East. The cyclone caused
substantial flooding, resulting in numerous deaths and significant damage to infrastructure,
property, crops, and livestock. This included damage to water distribution and
infrastructure systems. There is also an elevated risk of water-borne diseases, including
cholera as Zimbabwe has been experiencing a cholera outbreak since September with a
current total caseload of suspected 10,730, of which 317 were confirmed cases. To date,
the cyclone left 270,000 people in need of humanitarian assistance, including 129,600
children, more than 60,000 newly displaced people, and has exacerbated already high
emergency-level malnutrition rates.1 The Government of Zimbabwe (GoZ) declared an
emergency on the March 16th, 2019, activating a government-led response directed by the
Department of Civil Protection Unit (DCP) in coordination with humanitarian partners, the
military, and sub-national flood command centers.

Country Context

3. Following the change in Government in November 2017, Zimbabwe is undergoing a

transition, as it seeks to reengage fully with the international community, attract
foreign direct investment (FDI), and restore confidence in the economy. The new
Government, which was elected in August 2018, has promised far-reaching economic and
political reforms. However, slow economic growth, rising inflation (75.9 percent in April
2019, year-on-year), increasing poverty, high foreign and domestic debt (US$17 billion),
threaten the country’s longterm development and political stability. A widening current
account deficit, estimated at 4.5 percent of GDP in 2018, has worsened shortages in
foreign exchange, hampering trade and investment, reducing supplies and increasing prices
for basic commodities; further compounded by the parallel black market.

4. Economic trends are indicative of a worsening economic outlook. In 2017,

Zimbabwe’s per capita Gross National Income of US$1,170 fell below the Southern
African Development Community median. 2 Between 2014 to 2018, the country’s Gross
Domestic Product (GDP) growth averaged 2.7 percent, which is only marginally above
population growth and insufficient to improve average per capita income. Deterioration of
growth started in the last quarter of 2018 when shortages of foreign currency and basic
commodities limited productive sectors’ ability to trade and invest and had a dampening
impact on household consumption. The economy is heading into a recession in 2019 as a
result of severe drought, deepening shortages of fuel and foreign currency, and quickly
accelerating inflation. Average Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 10.6 percent in 2018

1 Revised 2019 Zimbabwe Flash Appeal.

2 World Bank’s World Development Indicators.
from less than 1 percent per year in 2014-17 while year-on-year inflation increased by 75.9
percent in April 2019. The unemployment rate has continued to rise, undermining the
livelihoods of the population.

5. Republic of Zimbabwe Arrears Status. Suffering from decades of decline and

hyperinflation, the Government of Zimbabwe has not been able to borrow from
international lenders since 1999, when it started defaulting on its debt. It has arrears of
around $2.5 billion with the World Bank, the African Development Bank and European
Investment Bank. Due to its non-accrual status, the country is ineligible to receive funding
from IDA. In turn, this has deprived Zimbabwe of a critical source of predictable
development financing and has put a severe strain on stable economic growth and socio-
economic development for its population.