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CCI Daily (Jul 7, 2021)
CCI Daily (Jul 7, 2021)
Coal stocks falling sharply at N China ports; market Fenwei CCI Thermal Index Daily on Jul 07, 2021
eyes further changes Price
Price
DoD
WoW
some traders said the impact on the spot market was (USD/t) (RMB/t) (RMB/t) (RMB/t)
limited. CCI 5500 Composite* 111.0 718.0 0.0 +57.0
"There are few spot cargoes available at northern CCI 5500 Term* 92.1 596.0 0.0 +27.0
ports. Sometimes you even cannot scrape together one
CCI 5500 Bulk* 139.1 900.0 0.0 +100.0
vessel of coal," said a Zhejiang-based trader, adding it
would be less likely for traders to lower prices." CCI 5500* - - - -
Safety still matters CCI 5000* - - - -
While the 100th anniversary of the founding of the CCI 4500* - - - -
Communist Party of China was concluded on July 1,
CCI 4700 Import^ 108.0 790.3 +6.5 +94.8
authorities may still not loosen their guard on coal
mining safety. Domestic supply could be as tight as CCI 3800 Import^ 81.9 599.2 +0.4 +73.6
before the July 1 anniversary, unless new capacity is 1)* FOB Qinhuangdao; includes VAT at 13%. 2)^ CFR South
China; the RMB value includes 13% VAT.
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CCI Daily
July 5 said all related parties should keep alert against (USD/t) (RMB/t) (RMB/t) (RMB/t)
QHD Port
mining accidents, as the situation of mining safety
QHD 5000 (S≤0.6) - - - - -
remained "serious and complicated," especially during a
QHD 5500 (S≤0.6) - - - - -
time when domestic supply keeps in shortage and QHD 5800 (S≤0.6) - - - - -
prices are high. QHD 5800 (S≤0.8) - - - - -
Huang Yuzhi, director of the administration, urged Guangzhou Port
all local branches to learn the lesson from previous IM 4500 Ex-stock 143.4 925.0 0.0 0.0
mining accidents to avoid similar tragedies from Shanxi 5000 Ex-stock 151.2 975.0 0.0 0.0
happening again. Shanxi Prem 5500 Ex-stock 165.9 1070.0 0.0 0.0
Most coal mines reopened after the July 1 Shenmu 5500 Ex-stock 168.2 1085.0 0.0 0.0
anniversary, but a few in Inner Mongolia remain in Shenmu Prem 6000 Ex-stock 176.0 1135.0 0.0 0.0
suspension until mid-July for self-check of safety Shenmu Lump 6100 Ex-stock 231.5 1493.5 -3.4 -30.6
loopholes. The overall production resumed to normal Indonesia 3800 Ex-stock 99.0 638.2 -0.0 -1.3
Indonesia 4200 Ex-stock 102.8 663.2 -0.0 -1.3
levels, while no new construction or expansion projects
Indonesia 4800 Ex-stock 130.7 842.8 -0.0 +1.2
were heard to have started operation.
Indonesia 5500 Ex-stock 162.0 1045.0 0.0 0.0
Demand improved slightly since this week with Australia 5000 Ex-stock 151.2 975.0 0.0 0.0
more trucks coming for coal loading at coal mines, but Australia 5500 Ex-stock 162.0 1045.0 0.0 0.0
this helped little with mine-mouth prices, which kept Shanxi
edging lower from the month beginning. Datong 5500 Mine-mouth 127.1 820.0 0.0 -15.0
Shuozhou 5000 Mine-mouth 108.5 700.0 -10.0 -40.0
Thermal coal prices fall back at China's production
Changzhi 5800 Mine-mouth 158.1 1020.0 0.0 0.0
hubs on increased supply Shaanxi
Thermal coal prices softened at major production Yulin 5800 Mine-mouth 128.1 826.0 -4.0 -19.0
hubs in northern China as coal supply tightness Shenmu 6000 Mine-mouth 132.4 854.1 -4.1 -19.6
alleviated along with increased production after the Yulin 6200 Mine-mouth 132.2 853.0 0.0 -4.0
100th anniversary of the founding of CPC on July 1. Inner Mongolia
Fenwei assessment for 5,500 Kcal/kg NAR thermal Ganqimaodu 6000 Ex-stock 59.7 385.0 0.0 0.0
coal in Shanxi's Datong was at 820 yuan/t on July 6, Ordos 5500 Mine-mouth 121.6 784.0 -11.0 -41.0
mine-mouth with VAT, falling 5 yuan/t further day on Ordos 5000 Mine-mouth 102.3 660.0 -3.0 -38.0
day after a 10 yuan/t drop; that for 5,800 Kcal/kg NAR Dongsheng 5200 Mine-mouth 120.8 779.0 -11.0 -41.0
*includes VAT at 13%.
thermal coal in Shaanxi's Yulin was assessed at 830
yuan/t on the same day, falling 9 yuan/t from a day ago.
On the same day, Fenwei assessed 5,500 Kcal/kg
NAR thermal coal in Inner Mongolia's Ordos at 795
yuan/t, mine-mouth with VAT, down 4 yuan/t from a
day ago following a sharp 17 yuan/t slump.
Thermal coal supply steadily increased as mines
gradually went back to normal production since July 2
after short suspension due to the centenary celebration.
Additionally, state-run coal giants, like China Energy
Investment Corporation, China National Coal Group,
Jinneng Holding Group, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical
Industry Group and Inner Mongolia Yitai Group, have
worked to raise thermal coal supply and shipment.
A batch of capacity is about to put into use in the
near term. Ordos, a coal-producing hub in Inner
Mongolia, is heard to approve a number of opencast
pits to resume operation in August after about half a
year's rectification.
Shanxi and other provinces like Jiangxi announced
to build or expand coal reserve capacity to hedge
against coal supply shortfall in the future.
However, downstream buyers were still sitting on
the sidelines waiting for clarity of market direction,
leading to undesirable sale performance and helping
pulling prices further down.
China Shenhua largely cut its term contract prices
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CCI Daily
for coal supplied by other parties this week. Cargoes of Fenwei CCI Met Index on Jul 07, 2021
5,500 Kcal/kg NAR thermal coal was set at 767 yuan/t, a Price*
Price*
DoD
WoW
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CCI Daily
remained closed due to damage on roads. Fenwei CCI Truck Freight on Jul 07, 2021
It is expected that more Mongolian coking coal Price
Price
DoD
WoW
safety pressure on coal mines and drove output cuts or (1,000DWT) (USD/t) (RMB/t) (RMB/t) (RMB/t)
halts. QHD-GZ 50-60 7.3 47.3 +1.8 +0.6
Most mines in Luliang, Linfen and Changzhi, major QHD-SH 40-50 4.7 30.3 +0.7 +0.6
coal production hubs in Shanxi, were heard to have HH-SH 30-40 5.0 32.3 +0.4 +0.6
Source:Shanghai Shipping Exchange
restored operations this week after the anniversary, and
their production has generally reached the pre-
anniversary levels, sources told Sxcoal.
According to one Luliang-based miner, production
resumption rate in Liulin, a major coal hub for premium
coking coal in Luliang city, exceeded 90% after the July 1
celebration.
In spite of this, premium coking coal supply still fell
short of demand from coke producers which basically
got back to normal production this week.
One Changzhi-based coking plant source said his
stockpiles of primary coking coal could only cover 4-5
days of consumption, and coal prices may not sink down
quickly.
Coal prices haven't showed a clear trend lately, as Seaborne Coal Freight on Jul 07, 2021
no new offer prices were placed as many miners are still Vessel Size
Freight
DoD
WoW
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CCI Daily
at close of the daytime session on July 7, marking the Coal Ports Roundup 1,000 tonnes, excl.marked*
second day of falling. Qinhuangdao Jul 07 DoD WoW YoY
After the 100th anniversary of the founding of the Rail supply 387 +18.7% -6.7% -22.1%
CPC on July 1, the anticipation of crude steel production Coal handing 497 +57.3% +29.1% 0.0%
cuts strengthened in the market, following some local
Stockpile 4,150 -2.6% -7.8% -16.8%
governments' statements to rein in steel production.
This, coupled with low profits of finished steel, led Vessel queue* 36 -1.0 -5.0 -4.0
to limited restocking intention among steelmakers for Vessel expected* 5 -1.0 -6.0 +1.0
the time being. A few steelmakers told Sxcoal that they SDIC Jingtang Jul 07 DoD WoW YoY
would further destock the raw material. Rail supply 84 -44.4% -22.9% -28.2%
On the supply side, market sources said most coking Coal handing 128 +15.3% -100.0% -18.5%
plants kept running at high or even full capacity from
Stockpile 1,800 -2.4% +20.1% +19.2%
July 2, except those plants in a few regions due to strict
environmental measures. Vessel queue* 12 0.0 -3.0 +3.0
As a result, coke stocks kept low amid accelerated Vessel expected* 1 -1.0 -1.0 -2.0
sales. As of July 5, stockpiles at independent coking Jingtang Terminal Jul 07 DoD WoW YoY
plants surveyed by Sxcoal totaled 162,600 tonnes, Rail supply 92 -35.7% +37.3% -27.0%
compared with the recent high of 635,200 tonnes last Coal handing 77 -33.0% -100.0% +32.8%
year.
Stockpile 2,435 +0.6% +3.8% +45.0%
It was learned that Beijing sent an environmental
inspection team to Shandong lately, leading to a 10-50% Vessel queue* 4 0.0 -6.0 +4.0
cut in operating coke-making capacity in the province. Vessel expected* 5 +4.0 +3.0 +3.0
This resulted in supply shortage locally, and local plants Old Jingtang Jul 07 DoD WoW YoY
were poised to raise their prices, although major mills in Rail supply 61 -9.0% -100.0% -6.2%
Hebei and Shandong were yet to accept the first round
Coal handing 91 -6.2% -100.0% -13.3%
of price hike proposal.
Finished steel strengthening Stockpile 1,090 -2.7% -13.5% -40.4%
Fueled by expectations of production cuts, Chinese Vessel queue* 3 -6.0 -9.0 +2.0
steel prices kept rising this week. Vessel expected* 1 +1.0 -2.0 -2.0
The most-traded rebar futures on the Shanghai SDIC Caofeidian Jul 07 DoD WoW YoY
Futures Exchange for October delivery jumped by 135 Rail supply 176 +10.7% -4.3% -12.4%
yuan/t to 5,439 yuan/t at close on July 7. Hot-rolled Coal handing 240 +23.7% +47.2% +31.1%
coils, used in the manufacturing sector, jumped 3.8% to
5,768 yuan/t, the highest closing price since May 19. Stockpile 3,040 -1.9% -14.4% -21.2%
In the spot market on the same day, rebar (HRB 400, Vessel queue* 17 0.0 +5.0 +6.0
20mm) prices increased 10-50 yuan/t from a day earlier Vessel expected* 3 0.0 -3.0 -6.0
in different cities, while the HRC (4.75mm) registered a Caofeidian Phase II Jul 07 DoD WoW YoY
30-50 yuan/t rally. Rail supply 109 +18.5% -18.7% 0.0%
Square billet in Tangshan saw price increase 30
Coal handing 111 -40.0% +1287.5% -8.3%
yuan/t to around 4,960 yuan/t ex-works with VAT,
market sources said. Stockpile 2,060 -0.1% -16.1% -10.4%
"If crude steel output is curbed as expected in the Vessel queue* 2 -3.0 -18.0 0.0
second half of the year, steel products supply may fall Vessel expected* 3 0.0 +3.0 +2.0
short of demand in the few months," said a Guangdong- Huaneng Caofeidian Jul 07 DoD WoW YoY
based trader. "And demand is expected to strengthen Rail supply 67 +13.6% +13.6% -46.8%
along with easing of the rainy weather."
Coal handing 44 -100.0% -44.3% -45.0%
Shanxi state-owned coking coal producer raises Q3 Stockpile 2,023 +1.2% +1.4% +0.5%
term contract prices
Vessel queue* 2 0.0 -4.0 +2.0
A major state-owned coking coal producer in Shanxi
Vessel expected* 1 -1.0 -2.0 -5.0
province adjusted up annual term contract prices for
the third quarter, according to market sources, Huanghua Jul 05 DoD WoW YoY
highlighting optimistic outlook supported by previous Rail supply 660 +13.8% +15.8% +8.2%
supply woes. Coal handing 670 +11.7% +36.7% +8.1%
The coal giant hiked annual term contract prices for Stockpile 2,099 +1.3% +5.0% +25.0%
low-sulfur premium coking coal for Tunlan and Shaqu
Vessel queue* 44 +4.0 +2.0 +9.0
brands by 150 yuan/t, while prices of primary coking
Guangzhou Jul 07 DoD WoW YoY
coal (S 1.0%) for Zhongxing, Jiexiu and Lishi brands were
lifted by 130 yuan/t, and that of primary coking coal Stockpile 2,280 +1.8% +6.5% -8.1%
with sulfur at 1.8% and 2.3% rose by 100 yuan/t, Sxcoal *actual change, not in percent.
learned from sources.
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CCI Daily
Term contract prices for fat coal were also increased This, together with coke firms' active replenishment,
by 100-150 yuan/t for five brands produced in different deepened outlook for a still undersupplied market
places. despite coal mines' resumption after the celebration.
Domestic coking coal shortage has been bolstering Some coal firms in Shandong also raised long-term
prices since April, and the intensified crunch alongside contract prices by 170-180 yuan/t for the affiliated
the coming of the 100th anniversary of the founding of mines, and meanwhile changed payment from banker's
CPC on July 1 further accelerated coking coal price draft to cash payment, translating to a total hike of 200
hikes. yuan/t.
Teck downgrades Q3 met coal production guidance for wildfires
Canadian mining group Teck Resources Limited of last quarter despite its negative effect for production
lowered its metallurgical coal production guidance for in the third quarter.
the third quarter by 300,000-500,000 tonnes because of It is expected to affect met coal deliveries to China,
wildfires happened in British Columbia on June 30, given 2 million tonnes of the total 6.2 million tonnes
according to its announcement on July 6. was shipped to China in the first quarter this year, the
According to the announcement, wildfires damaged miner said in the financial report.
the rail line near Lytton, which disrupted rail service The company said all of its operations of the met
between Teck's metallurgical coal operations and west coal in British Columbia are still ongoing despite the rail
coast terminals. disruption.
The incident, which took place on the last day of Teck is assessing the overall impacts on customer
second quarter, hadn't impacted metallurgical coal sales shipments and its production, which will be dependent
on the length of the rail disruption.
One coal rail line to South Africa's RBCT resumes after derailment
One railway that delivers coal to Richards Bay Coal up $3.75/t from July 2, the new high since May 2011.
Terminal (RBCT) in South Africa resumed operation in The supply shortfall of South African coal raised
the afternoon of July 4 local time, after a 31-wagon train expectations of increasing demand for the fossil fuel
derailed on July 3 that caused two railways out of work. from other sources. On July 5, Newcastle thermal coal
The operator Transnet said the No.2 line has prices were assessed at $146.75T. jumping 4.76% from
reopened after repairs, but the speed was restricted to July 2, the highest ever in the history.
15 km/h. The No.1 line was still in a state of suspension Transnet also announced it would start the annual
for maintenance. maintenance in July 13-19 as scheduled. This may
Transnet said the date of comeback of No.1 line was further concern market participants over the country's
not yet determined, while the reason for the derailment exports.
was under investigation. In late April, a similar accident As of July 2, coal stockpiles at the RBCT totaled 3.4
occurred and forced two lines out of operation for million tonnes, down from 3.6 million tonnes a week
about one week. ago. The RBCT typically needs to hold around 5 million
The disruption of railway delivery, coupled with low tonnes of stockpiles ahead of the maintenance to keep
stockpiles at the RBCT, sparked concerns on South the terminal's exports less affected, a target that seems
Africa's coal supply shortage in the near term, thereby impossible to be realized this year.
driving prices to rise further. Data of globalCOAL South Africa exported 26.11 million tonnes of coal
showed the prices of the RBCT 6,000 Kcal/kg NAR during the first five months, down 8.86% year on year,
thermal coal were assessed at $122.5/t FOB on July 5, the lowest since 2012, the country's customs data
showed.
Russia May coking coal exports surge 46.2% MoM
Russia exported 2.43 million tonnes of coking coal in 29.7% year on year and 36.07% month on month.
May, up 22.6% year on year and 46.2% month on Russia's coking coal exports totaled 10.96 million
month, according to data from the Federal Customs tonnes in January-May, up 2.29% year on year, and the
Service of Russia. total export value dipped 0.96% from the year-ago level
The exports amounted to $220 million in May, up to $931 million.
Russia May thermal coal exports rise nearly 15% MoM, China intakes dip 1.92%
Russia's thermal coal exports stood at 12.53 million million tonnes in May.
tonnes in May, a year-on-year fall of 1.66% but rising In the month, exports of bituminous coal dipped
14.61% from April, showed data from the Federal 2.6% from a year ago to 12.41 million tonnes, increasing
Customs Service of Russia. 13.89% month on month, while other coal exports
Export value totaled $826 million in the month, up skyrocketed 220% on the month to 123,500 tonnes.
7.83% year on year and 23.3% month on month. In January-May, Russia's thermal coal exports
Despite a year-on-year jump of 46.74%, Russia's totaled 60.05 million tonnes, up 4.59% from a year ago,
coal shipment to China still fell 1.92% on the month to while export value ticked up by 5.04% to $3.65 billion.
2.18
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CCI Daily
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