Laws of Probability

Presenter: Ms.
Sidra Raees
LECTURE 06
Department of Mathematics, NED University of
Engineering & Technology, Karachi
1
Example
A statistics class for engineers consist of 25 industrial, 10
mechanical, 10 electrical and 8 civil engineering
students. If a person is randomly selected by the
instructor to answer a question, find the probability that
the student chosen is
(a) An industrial engineering major
(b) A civil engineering or an electrical engineering major.
Probability & Statistics (MT-331), Sidra Raees

Copyrights Protected-Department of Mathematics, NED University of Engineering & Technology, Karachi
2
Solution:
Denote by I, M. E and C the students majoring in industrial,

mechanical, electrical and civil engineering, respectively. The
total number of students in the class is 53, all of whom are
equally likely to be selected.
(a) Since 25 of the 53 students are majoring in industrial
engineering, the probability of event I, selecting an
industrial engineering major at random is,
25
𝑃 𝐼 =
53
(a) Since 18 of the 53 students are civil or electrical
engineering majors, it follows that
8 10 18
𝑃 𝐶∪𝐸 = + =
53 53 53
3
The two events A and B are said to be not mutually exclusive
if there is something common between A and B and therefore,
𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 ≠ ∅. In other words, if the event A occurs, the event B
may also occur and if the event B occurs, the event A may
also occur; the events A and B are called not mutually
exclusive.
Suppose following are the two events

in an experiment.
A= a king is drawn from a pack and
B= a red card is drawn from a pack
If we draw a King it may be a Red and if we draw a Red card
it may be a King. Therefore these two events are not mutually
exclusive.
4
The probabilities of these two not mutually exclusive
events (i.e. either A or B or both A and B occur) is
computed as
𝑃 𝐴 𝑜𝑟 𝐵 = 𝑃 𝐴 + 𝑃 𝐵 − 𝑃(𝐴 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐵)
OR
𝑃 𝐴 ∪ 𝐵 = 𝑃 𝐴 + 𝑃 𝐵 − 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵)
If A, B and C are three not mutually exclusive events,

then the probability of these events is computed as
𝑷 𝑨 ∪ 𝑩 ∪ 𝑪 = 𝑷 𝑨 + 𝑷 𝑩 + 𝑷 𝑪 − 𝑷 𝑨 ∩ 𝑩 − 𝑷 𝑩 ∩ 𝑪 − 𝑷 𝑨 ∩ 𝑪 + 𝑷(𝑨 ∩ 𝑩 ∩ 𝑪)

5
Example
A die is tossed only once. What is the probability that
either a number less than 5 or an even number occurs on
the die.
Solution:
The sample space is S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6} then n(S) = 6
Let A= number is less than 5, then A = {1, 2, 3, 4}
and then n(A) = 4
Let B= even number occurs, then B = {2, 4, 6}
and then n(B) = 3 and
Since 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 = *2, 4+ ≠ ∅ , then n(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 2
6
Then A and B are not mutually exclusive events.
Therefore 𝑃 𝐴 ∪ 𝐵 = 𝑃 𝐴 + 𝑃 𝐵 − 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵)
𝑛(𝐴) 4 2
𝑃 𝐴 = = =
𝑛(𝑆) 6 3
𝑛(𝐵) 3 1
𝑃 𝐵 = = =
𝑛(𝑆) 6 2
𝑛(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) 2 1
𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = = =
𝑛(𝑆) 6 3
Then,
2 1 1 5
𝑃 𝐴∪𝐵 = + − =
3 2 3 6

7
Example
A card is drawn at random from a deck of ordinary
playing cards. What is the probability that it is a
diamond, a face card or a king?
Solution:
Let A represent the event that the card drawn is a
diamond, B represent the event that the card is drawn is a
face card, C represent the event that the card drawn is a
king, 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 represent the event that the card drawn is
both a diamond and face card, and so on. Then we need
𝑷 𝑨 ∪ 𝑩 ∪ 𝑪 = 𝑷 𝑨 + 𝑷 𝑩 + 𝑷 𝑪 − 𝑷 𝑨 ∩ 𝑩 − 𝑷 𝑩 ∩ 𝑪 − 𝑷 𝑨 ∩ 𝑪 + 𝑷(𝑨 ∩ 𝑩 ∩ 𝑪)

8
Now
𝑛(𝐴) 13
𝑃 𝐴 = = , (there are 13 diamonds)
𝑛(𝑆) 52
𝑛(𝐵) 12
𝑃 𝐵 = = , (there are 12 face cards)
𝑛(𝑆) 52
𝑛(𝐶) 4
𝑃 𝐶 = = , (there are 4 kings)
𝑛(𝑆) 52
𝑛 𝐴∩𝐵 3
𝑃 𝐴∩𝐵 = = , (diamonds and face card)
𝑛 𝑆 52
𝑛 𝐵∩𝐶 4
𝑃 𝐵∩𝐶 = = , (face cards and kings)
𝑛 𝑆 52
𝑛 𝐴∩𝐶 1
𝑃 𝐴∩𝐶 = = , (diamond and king)
𝑛 𝑆 52
𝑛 𝐴∩𝐵∩𝐶 1
𝑃 𝐴∩𝐵∩𝐶 = = , (diamond and face card and king)
𝑛 𝑆 52
Hence, we get
13 12 4 3 4 1 1 22
𝑃 𝐴∪𝐵∪𝐶 = + + − − − + =
52 52 52 52 52 52 52 52
= 0.423
9
Example
A student applies for admission to college A and B. He
estimates that the probability of being admitted to A is 0.7, the
probability of being admitted to B is 0.5 and the probability of
being admitted to both A and B is 0.4. what is the probability
that he will be admitted to at least one of the colleges (i.e.
either A or B or both A and B).
Solution:
Since P(A)=0.7, P(B)=0.5 and
P(A∩ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐵𝑜𝑡ℎ 𝐴 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐵) = 0.4
Now to find
𝑃 𝐴 ∪ 𝐵 = 𝑃 𝑒𝑖𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑟 𝐴 𝑜𝑟 𝐵 𝑜𝑟 𝑏𝑜𝑡ℎ 𝐴 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐵 =?
Therefore 𝑃 𝐴 ∪ 𝐵 = 𝑃 𝐴 + 𝑃 𝐵 − 𝑃 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵
𝑃 𝐴 ∪ 𝐵 = 0.7 + 0.5 − 0.4 = 0.8
10
Suppose A and B are two events in an experiment. If A occurs first
and B occurs second and if the probability of second event B has
not changed (or is not affected) due to occurrence of first event A,
then the events A and B are called independent events.
Suppose two cards are drawn one by one, from a pack of 52 cards,
if the events are;
A = a king is drawn in first attempt, and
B = a king is drawn in second attempt
Whereas the first card is replaced before drawing the second card.
4 4
Therefore 𝑃 𝐴 = and 𝑃 𝐵 =
52 52
Since the probabilities of second event B is not changed due to the
occurrence of first event A, then event A and B are called
independent.

11
The probability of these two independent events A and B
(i.e. both of them occur) is computes as
𝑃 𝐴 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐵 = 𝑃 𝐴 ∙ 𝑃(𝐵)
OR
𝑃 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 = 𝑃(𝐴) ∙ 𝑃(𝐵)
If A, B and C are three independent events, then the

probability of these events is computed as
𝑃 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 ∩ 𝐶 = 𝑃(𝐴) ∙ 𝑃(𝐵) ∙ 𝑃(𝐶)

12
Note:
 If A and B are independent, then
(i) 𝐴′ and B are independent, 𝑃 𝐴′ ∩ 𝐵 = 𝑃(𝐴′ ) ∙ 𝑃(𝐵)
(ii) A and 𝐵′ are independent, 𝑃 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵′ = 𝑃 𝐴 ∙ 𝑃 𝐵′
(iii) 𝐴′ and 𝐵′ are independent, 𝑃 𝐴′ ∩ 𝐵′ = 𝑃(𝐴′ ) ∙ 𝑃(𝐵′ )
 If A, B and C are pairwise independent, then
𝑃 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 = 𝑃(𝐴) ∙ 𝑃(𝐵), 𝑃 𝐴 ∩ 𝐶 = 𝑃(𝐴) ∙ 𝑃(𝐶),
𝑃 𝐵 ∩ 𝐶 = 𝑃(𝐵) ∙ 𝑃(𝐶),
 If A, B and C are independent, then
𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 ∩ 𝐶)′ = 1 − 𝑃(𝐴) ∙ 𝑃(𝐵) ∙ 𝑃(𝐶)
 If A, B and C are independent, then
𝑃 𝐴 ∪ 𝐵 ∪ 𝐶 = 1 − 𝑃(𝐴′ ∩ 𝐵′ ∩ 𝐶 ′ )

13
Example
A bag is contain 5 red and 7 black balls. A ball is drawn at
random from the bag, the color is noted and the ball is
replaced. A second ball is then drawn. Find the probability
that the first ball is red and the second is black.
Solution:
A ball can be drawn in 12𝐶1 = 12 ways, then n(S) = 12
Let A = the first ball is red, then
The number of ways of drawing one red ball is 5𝐶1 = 5 ,
Therefore n(A) = 5
𝑛(𝐴) 5
𝑃 𝐴 = =
𝑛(𝑆) 12
14
Let B = the second ball is black
As the first ball is replaced before the second draw is

made, therefore, A and B are independent events.
The number of ways of drawing one black ball is
7
𝐶1 = 7, then n(B) = 7
𝑛(𝐵) 7
𝑃 𝐵 = =
𝑛(𝑆) 12
So,
𝑃 𝐴 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐵 = 𝑃 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 = 𝑃(𝐴) ∙ 𝑃(𝐵)
5 7 35
= × =
12 12 144

15
Example
A die is thrown two times. Find the probability of getting
a 4 on the first throw and an odd number on the second
throw.
Solution:
The sample space is

16
Let A = 4 occurs on the first toss throw
then, A = {(4,1) (4,2) (4,3) (4,4) (4,5) (4,6)}
𝑛(𝐴) 6 1
𝑃 𝐴 = = =
𝑛(𝑆) 36 6
Let B = an odd number is obtained on the second toss

then, B = {(1,1) (2,1) (3,1) (4,1) (5,1) (6,1)
(1,3) (2,3) (3,3) (4,3) (5,3) (6,3)
(1,5) (2,5) (3,5) (4,5) (5,5) (6,5)}
𝑛(𝐵) 18 1
𝑃 𝐵 = = =
𝑛(𝑆) 36 2
Since the result on the second toss is not affected in any way by the
result on the first toss, therefore A and B are independent
1 1 1
Then 𝑃 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 = 𝑃 𝐴 ∙ 𝑃 𝐵 = × =
6 2 12

17
Example
The probability that A will be alive in 30 years is 0.4 and
the probability that B will be alive in 30 years is 0.8.
what is the probability that
(i) Both will be alive in 30 years
(ii) Both of them will die
(iii) A will be alive and B dead
Solution:
𝑃 𝐴 𝑎𝑙𝑖𝑣𝑒 =𝑃 𝐴 = 0.4
𝑃 𝐴 𝑑𝑒𝑎𝑑 = 𝑃 𝐴′ = 0.6
𝑃 𝐵 𝑎𝑙𝑖𝑣𝑒 =𝑃 𝐵 = 0.8
𝑃 𝐵 𝑑𝑒𝑎𝑑 = 𝑃 𝐵′ = 0.2

18
Since events are independent, then
(i) P(both will alive) = P(A-alive) P(B-alive)

= (0.4)(0.8) = 0.32
(ii) P(both will die) = P(A-dead) P(B-dead)

= (0.6)(0.2) = 0.12
(iii) P(A will be alive and B dead) = P(A-alive) P(B-dead)

= (0.4)(0.2) = 0.08

19
Example
A town has two fire engines operating independently. The
probability that a specific engine is available when
needed is 0.96. What is the probability that neither is
available when needed?
Solution:
Let A and B represents the availability of each fire
engine.
So, 𝑃 𝐴 = 𝑃 𝐵 = 0.96, 𝑃 𝐴′ = 𝑃 𝐵′ = 0.04
𝑃 𝐴′ ∩ 𝐵′ = 𝑃 𝐴′ 𝑃 𝐵′ = 0.04 0.04 = 0.0016

20
Suppose A and B are two events in an experiment. If A occurs first
and B occurs second and if the probability of second event B
changes (or has some effect) due to the occurrence of first event A,
the events are called dependent events.
Suppose two cards are drawn one by one from a pack of 52 cards if
A = a card drawn in first attempt is red
B = a card drawn in second attempt is black
26 1
Whereas the first card is not replaced, then 𝑃 𝐴 = =
52 2
Since first card is not replaced before drawing the second,
therefore, probability of second event B has been affected due to
the first event A.
26
i.e. and is denoted by 𝑃(𝐵|𝐴)
51
Then events A and B are called dependent events.
21
The probability of these two dependent events (i.e. both
of them occur) is computes as
𝑃 𝐴 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐵 = 𝑃 𝐴 ∙ 𝑃(𝐵|𝐴)
OR
𝑃 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 = 𝑃(𝐴) ∙ 𝑃(𝐵|𝐴)
Where 𝑃(𝐵|𝐴) is called the Conditional Probability of B

given A and is defined as
𝑃(𝐴∩𝐵)
𝑃 𝐵𝐴 = where 𝑃(𝐴) > 0
𝑃(𝐴)
Similarly Conditional Probability of A given B is given
by
𝑃(𝐴∩𝐵)
𝑃 𝐴𝐵 = where 𝑃(𝐵) > 0
𝑃(𝐵)

22
If A, B and C are three dependent events, then the
probabilities of these events is computes as
𝑃 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 ∩ 𝐶 = 𝑃 𝐴 𝑃 𝐵 𝐴 𝑃(𝐶|𝐴 ∩ 𝐶)
Note:
 If A and B are independent events then
𝑃 𝐴 𝐵 = 𝑃 𝐴 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑃 𝐵 𝐴 = 𝑃 𝐵
′
 𝑃 𝐴 𝐵 = 1 − 𝑃(𝐴|𝐵)

23
Example
Two cards are drawn in succession from a deck of 52 playing cards
without replacement. What is the probability that both cards are
spades.
Solution:
Two cards are drawn one by one
Let A = card drawn in first attempt is spade, then
13 1
𝑃 𝐴 = =
52 4
Let B = card drawn in second attempt is spade
Since first card is not replaced therefore
12 4
𝑃 𝐵𝐴 = =
51 17
Since the events are dependent, then
1 4 1
𝑃 𝐴∩𝐵 =𝑃 𝐴 𝑃 𝐵 𝐴 = × =
4 17 17
24
Example
A box contain 8 tickets bearing the numbers 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 8,
10. One ticket is drawn and kept aside. Then a second ticket is
drawn. What is the probability that both the tickets show even
numbers.
Solution:
Let A = first ticket drawn shows an even number then
5
𝑃 𝐴 =
8
B = second ticket drawn shows an even number
4
Since first ticket is not replaced then 𝑃 𝐵 𝐴 =
7
Probability that both the tickets show even numbers is
5 4 5
𝑃 𝐴∩𝐵 =𝑃 𝐴 𝑃 𝐵 𝐴 = × =
8 7 14
25
Example
The probability that a regularly scheduled flight departs on time is
P(D) = 0.83; the probability that it arrives on time is P(A) = 0.82;
and the probability that it departs and arrives on time is
𝑃 𝐷 ∩ 𝐴 = 0.78. Find the probability that a plane
(a) Arrives on time, given that it departed on time, and
(b) Departed on time, given that it has arrived on time.
Solution:
(a) The probability that a plane arrives on time, given that it
departed on time, is
𝑃(𝐷 ∩ 𝐴) 0.78
𝑃 𝐴𝐷 = = = 0.94
𝑃 𝐷 0.83
(b) The probability that a plane departed on time, given that it has
arrived on time, is
𝑃(𝐷 ∩ 𝐴) 0.78
𝑃 𝐷𝐴 = = = 0.95
𝑃 𝐴 0.82
26
Example
In a certain college 25% of the students passed Mathematics,
15% of the students passed Statistics and 10% of the students
passed both Mathematics and Statistics. A student is selected
at random.
(i) If he passed Statistics, what is the probability that he
passed mathematics.
(ii) If he passed mathematics, what is the probability that he
passed statistics.
Solution:
Let M = student who passed mathematics and
S = students who passed statistics then
𝑃 𝑀 = 0.25, 𝑃 𝑆 = 0.15, 𝑃 𝑀 ∩ 𝑆 = 0.10
𝑃(𝑀∩𝑆) 0.10 2
(i) 𝑃 𝑀 𝑆 = = =
𝑃(𝑆) 0.15 3
𝑃(𝑆∩𝑀) 0.10 2
(ii) 𝑃 𝑆𝑀 = = =
𝑃(𝑀) 0.25 5
27
Example
Solution:

28
29
Problem for Self-study
The concept of conditional probability has countless uses
in both industrial and biomedical applications. Consider
an industrial process in the textile industry in which strips
of a particular type of cloth are being produced. These
strips can be defective in two ways, length and nature of
texture. For the case of the latter, the process of
identification is very complicated. It is known from
historical information on the process that 10% of strips
fail the length test, 5% fail the texture test, and only 0.8%
fail both tests. If a strip is selected randomly from the
process and a quick measurement identifies it as failing
the length test, what is the probability that it is texture
defective?

30
Solution:
Consider the events
L: length defective, T: texture defective.
Given that the strip is length defective, the probability
that this strip is texture defective is given by
𝑃(𝑇 ∩ 𝐿) 0.008
𝑃 𝑇𝐿 = = = 0.08
𝑃(𝐿) 0.1
Thus, knowing the conditional probability provides
considerably more information than merely knowing
P(T).

31

Laws of Probability

Uploaded by

Document Information

Copyright

Available Formats

Share this document

Share or Embed Document

Sharing Options

Did you find this document useful?

Is this content inappropriate?

Copyright:

Available Formats

Laws of Probability

Uploaded by

Copyright:

Available Formats

Presenter: Ms.

Probability & Statistics (MT-331), Sidra Raees

Denote by I, M. E and C the students majoring in industrial,

Suppose following are the two events

If A, B and C are three not mutually exclusive events,

Probability & Statistics (MT-331), Sidra Raees

Probability & Statistics (MT-331), Sidra Raees

Probability & Statistics (MT-331), Sidra Raees

Probability & Statistics (MT-331), Sidra Raees

If A, B and C are three independent events, then the

Probability & Statistics (MT-331), Sidra Raees

Probability & Statistics (MT-331), Sidra Raees

As the first ball is replaced before the second draw is

Probability & Statistics (MT-331), Sidra Raees

Probability & Statistics (MT-331), Sidra Raees

Let B = an odd number is obtained on the second toss

Probability & Statistics (MT-331), Sidra Raees

Probability & Statistics (MT-331), Sidra Raees

(i) P(both will alive) = P(A-alive) P(B-alive)

(ii) P(both will die) = P(A-dead) P(B-dead)

(iii) P(A will be alive and B dead) = P(A-alive) P(B-dead)

Probability & Statistics (MT-331), Sidra Raees

Probability & Statistics (MT-331), Sidra Raees

Where 𝑃(𝐵|𝐴) is called the Conditional Probability of B

Probability & Statistics (MT-331), Sidra Raees

Probability & Statistics (MT-331), Sidra Raees

Probability & Statistics (MT-331), Sidra Raees

Probability & Statistics (MT-331), Sidra Raees

Probability & Statistics (MT-331), Sidra Raees

You might also like