Final Version - EN - Lesson 2 - Size and Structure of Population

Hai Phong University of Medicine and Pharmacy Module: Population Health
Program on Competency-Based Medicine Subject: Social Medicine
POPULATION SIZE AND STRUCTURE

Le Tran Tuan Anh, Tran Thi Thuy Ha
TARGET:Objectives
After this lesson, students will be able to …
1. Present the objects, methods and role of Demographic research.
2. State some opinions on population.
3. Present the concept of population size, structure and distribution.
4. Analyze the composition of the population pyramid and practice drawing the
population pyramid.
CONTENT:
1. Introduction to Demography
1.1. Subjects and research methods of Demographics:
1.1.1. Demographics and Demographics:
• Population is the number of people in a certain territory or locality.
• Demography is the science of population. It studies the regularity of population
change, population reproduction; the study of changes in the quantity, composition and
distribution of a population in a static state, a dynamic state and the causes of changes in
population phenomena in relation to economic phenomena - society.
Demography studies two states:
Static demography: Studying the state of the population at a certain time such as
quantity, distribution, structure according to various criteria such as age, gender, territory, etc.
Dynamic Demographics: Studying 3 types of population movements:
- Natural movement: Through birth and death.
- Mechanical movement: Through immigration to and from.
- Social mobilization: Research progress in education, career, etc.
1.1.2. Research object: The process of population reproduction
Population processes (birth, death, marriage, divorce, migration) are in constant motion,
constantly innovating in quantity and quality, generation after generation at a higher level of
development. Such a set of population changes is called population reproduction.
Quantitatively, if the population of the following period is larger than the population of
the previous period, we have an expanded population reproduction, if the population of the
following period is smaller than the previous period, it is a narrow population reproduction.
However, demography also pays great attention to the study of population quality, such as
changes in population structure, changes in physical strength, mental strength, and movement
in the birth and death process with population quality.
Population reproduction in the narrow sense is the process of continuously replacing
successive generations of populations through birth and death events. According to this view,
population reproduction in the narrow sense is the object of study of Demography. However,
Population size and structure
purely natural variability occurs only on a worldwide scale (or on a country-by-country scale
if the population of each country is considered a closed population). In smaller territories,
migration often occurs, the movement of people from one territory to another. In a narrow
sense, this movement does not change the number of population structure of the country, but
in fact it changes the population structure of regions, changes the living conditions of the
migrants as well as the living conditions. non-migrants. Even, it changes the population habits
in the areas where people go and where people come… Therefore, it will change the
population behavior of people in the regions. Thus, in a broad sense, migration is also a factor
that changes the population process. On this basis, the concept of population reproduction in a
broad sense was formed.
Population reproduction in the broad sense is the process of continuously replacing successive
generations of populations through birth, death, and migration events. This view holds that
population reproduction in the broad sense is the object of Demography.
1.1.3. Research Methods:
Humans, in addition to natural and biological factors, also exist in certain socio-economic
conditions and are affected by the surrounding socio-economic conditions. Furthermore, people
are the sum total of social relationships. Therefore, all human population behavior is affected and
governed by surrounding conditions. Therefore, when studying any phenomenon or population
process, it is necessary to place it in specific historical conditions. It is necessary to study it with a
comprehensive point of view, a development point of view... of dialectical materialism.
To study population problems, one cannot study an individual, but must study a population
population with a large enough scale, enough to eliminate random factors, find out the law or
regularity of the population process. Therefore, statistical methods are widely used in
demography, from data collection and information processing to presentation and analysis of
population data. Demographers consider statistics to be an indispensable tool in the process of
population research.
In addition, mathematics is also widely used in demography to model population processes, to
represent population growth processes, or to relate population variables to other variables by
means of variables. math function. In order to study "social people", it is necessary to use the
methods of investigation, collection and information processing of Sociology.
In demography, time and age have a special relationship, which no other science has. From this
relationship, people build Lexis schema, develop specific research methods of demographics.
Horizontal and longitudinal analysis, real generation method and hypothetical generation,
generation and cohort.... are characteristic methods for studying different population processes.
1.2. The role of Demographic research:
Any socio-economic form that wants to exist and develop must maintain two lines of production:
the production of social material wealth (the means of production and the means of consumption)
and the production of political capital. human beings themselves. These two production lines
always exist at the same time and are interrelated and affect each other. Therefore, the study of

population reproduction is the study of a field directly and decisively related to the existence and
development of society.
In the relationship with social production, people are both the subject that determines its
existence and development, as well as the object and the consuming force of the wealth they have
created. Therefore, production and service plans are indispensable based on population size and
structure. Market research begins with a general description of the population it serves.
The size, structure, and population growth are often the crystallization of socio-economic
factors, reflecting social conditions. Therefore, starting from the characteristics of the population,
from the population factors, it is possible to learn, detect, and predict other socio-economic
problems. For example, studying migration flows between rural and urban areas allows an
assessment of the country's economic development, today's "baby boom" will
help us forecast the boom in job demand in the next 15-20 years...
If considered separately in each population field, accurate information about the population
allows to see the overall picture of the population. It is an important material foundation of
society, on which one can effectively manage the population growth of the country as well as of
each region. That is also the basis for making a reasonable national population policy.
It can be seen that, demography allows to understand one of the physical foundations of
society, through which to understand social life and contribute to the development of society.
2. Perspectives on population
2.1. Ancient population view:
Since ancient times, thinkers have recognized the special role of population in the
development of society.
Confucius (551-479 BC) - a famous Chinese thinker, social philosopher, said that
population is closely related to land, violating even the smallest "ideal relationship"
between populations. and land areas are both harmful. So he and his successors all tried to
find this "ideal relationship". Thus the ancient thinkers initiated the "optimal population"
theory.
Aristotle (Greek, 384-322 BC) argued that rapid population growth inevitably led to
poverty, crime and resentment among the population; meanwhile, if the country has a
small population, it will raise the standard of living and create social harmony. Because,
according to him, a small population will be able to "get to know each other better,
distribute obligations more accurately", which a large country cannot do at all. He also
mentioned other brutal measures to control the population of other classes: abortion,
killing sick children, forced migration (forcibly emigrating or selling to other areas).
2.2. Medieval population perspective:
In the Middle Ages, religion dominated society, so the population was influenced by
religion. Thinkers often assess the positive consequences of population growth on
economic development.
2.3. Modern perspective:

Adam Smith-David Ricardo (the era of the first industrial revolution) believes that labor is
also a commodity, which will be adjusted according to supply and demand. The demand
for people will regulate the production of people, just as the demand for goods does for all
goods. Demand promotes production when production is too slow, conversely it becomes
the "brake" when production runs too fast. That way, demand will adjust for each
country's population.
Malthus (1766-1834) pointed out that: The population increases exponentially, the means
of subsistence increases exponentially. This is a contradictory pair so there will be a
natural adjustment (poverty, disease, violence, death) and he advocates using solutions
that promote natural adjustment of the population.
Marxist-Leninist doctrine of population:
- Each socio-economic form has its corresponding population law.
- Material production and population reproduction, after all, are decisive factors for the
development of human society.
- It is the responsibility of each country to determine the optimal population.
- Humans are capable of controlling the population process as desired.
3. Size and structure of population
3.1. Population size and density:
3.1.1. Population size:
Population size is the total number of people living in a given territory, at a given time.
Population size is determined through census or regular civil status statistics, calculated
based on the number of inhabitants (total population).
Population size is a basic population indicator. Information on population size is used to
calculate average population and other population indicators, such as fertility and
mortality. In addition, population size is also an important measure for economic
development, education and health planning.
Calculation:
The calculation of the total population in each census is clearly defined in terms of the
number of people present (the number of people actually present), the number of legal
people (the number of permanent residents according to household registration), the
number of people who are temporarily absent, temporary residents and visitors…
To study population size, people often use the following measures:
• Population at time: is the total number of people living in a certain territory at a specified
time (it can be the beginning of the year, the end of the year, the middle of the year or any
time t...).
Commonly used symbols are:
+ PO: population at the beginning of the year (or at the beginning of the period);
+ P1: population at the end of the year (or at the end of the period);
+ Pt: population at time t.

Time-point population size information is used to calculate the rate of population growth
or decline over time.
• Average population (Usually used symbol: ): is the average number of the population at the
time.
P0  P1
P
2
Where: Po is the population at the beginning of the year (at the beginning of the
period).
P1 is the population at the end of the year (end of period)
In case there are not enough data for calculation, one can also take the number of
population at the middle of the year (1/7 every year) as the average population of that year.
• Relationship of population size over time:.
Pt = Po + rt
Pt = Po(1 +r)t
Where
Pt - population at time t
Po- population at the beginning
r - population growth rate
t - population growth period
3.1.2. Population density:
Is an index that determines the concentration of the population living in a territory and is
calculated by the correlation between the number of people per unit area and that population.
The calculation formula is as follows:
D = PS person/km2
Where: D: population density
P: is the total number of people living in the territory.
S: is the area of the territory in km2.
The world population density is increasing, on a worldwide scale in 1989 the density was 35
people/km2 (5,203 billion out of 149 million km2, the total area of the earth is 510 million
km2, of which the oceans account for up to 3/4 of the area), in 1999 the density increased to
40 people/km2, the population density in 2009 was: 46 people/km2 (6.81 billion people/149
million km2). It is expected that by 2050 the world population density will be 60 people/km2
(9 billion people/149 million km2).
Population density in continents and countries is very different depending on topography,
development history of countries, socio-economic development level, and population
development process of each place. Currently, there are countries with high population
density, usually developing countries or newly industrialized countries and have a history of
rapid population growth in the past such as Bangladesh 820 people/km2, South Korea 449
people. /km2, Japan 340 people/km2, India 330 people/km2… There are countries with very
sparse population density, which are developed countries or the polar regions of the earth such
as: Mongolia 1.5 people/km2 , Australia 2 people/km2, Canada 3 people/km2…
3.2. Population Increasing:
• The size of the population changes constantly over time, from the previous time point to the
next time point called population growth. The population growth rate of a region/country is
the sum of mechanical growth and natural growth.
The population balance equation:
Px = Pt - Po = (S – C) + (N – X)
Where
Px: population increase from the beginning to the end of the period.
P0: population at base time
Pt: population at time t
S : number of births
C: number of deaths
N : immigration number
X : number of emigration
Population growth consists of two components: natural increase (or decrease): is the
difference between the number of births and deaths and the amount of mechanical increase
(decrease) or net migration. : is the difference between the number of immigrants coming and
going in an area.
In many cases, natural variation plays a more decisive role in population change than
mechanical variation. This is consistent with developing countries that are currently in the
middle of a population transition, a time when births outnumber deaths.
• Rate (rate) of population growth:
Population growth rate (r) is a relative number that represents the rate of increase or
decrease in population size over a given period of time, usually a year.
Calculation formula:
P1  P0
r x 100
P0
Where
- r: Population growth rate
- P1: number of people at the end of the period (year-end)
- P0: population at the beginning of the period (early year)
If calculating for a long period of time, people often use a measure: Average annual
population growth rate ( ). This indicator represents the typical rate of increase and decrease
in population size during the calculation period. It is usually calculated according to the
following formulas:

P1-P0
r =
P0(t1 - t0) x 100
Where: t0 and t1 are the beginning and the end of a period.

3.3. Population structure:
The natural, social or biological characteristics of a population form its structure.
When analyzing the population, these characteristics are placed into separate criteria
and grouped according to common characteristics. The division of the total population
of a country or region into groups, or divisions according to one or more specific
criteria, is called population structure.
Ways to divide the population structure:
* Segmentation by race: by ethnicity; by language; by nationalityetc.
* Division by administrative boundaries: administrative units (villages, villages,
communes...); nation; continents; area.
* Division by occupation:
- Have a job: have a job; unemployment.
- Field of work: workers, farmers, students-students, services, other...
* Division by education: going to school; school attendance rates at all levels; average
years of schooling; adult literacy rate…
* Division by labor capacity: dependency ratio, young dependency ratio, old
dependency ratio.
* Division by marital status.
When considering the structure of a certain population, age and sex criteria are the two
most commonly used basic characteristics in calculating other population indicators
and analyzing economic and social issues. society, politics.
3.3.1. Population structure by age:
The concept of age:
A person's age is calculated by the time interval from the time of birth to the time of
age calculation.
Age is a commonly used criterion in population and social studies. In demographics,
age is defined by the round age (rounded to the number of times the birthday
anniversary has passed). Eg:
- Newborn to less than 12 months old: 0 years old
- Children from 12 months old to less than 24 months old: 1 year old.
- A person born on January 15, 2000, will be 10 years old on January 14, 2011 and 11
years old on January 16, 2011.
In demographics, the age division can be by age (one year) or by age group (age
groups are evenly spaced by 5 years, 10 years, or by unequal age gaps depending on
the purpose of the study) as groups under working age: (0-14); in working age (15-
59); and over the working age (from 60 and above)… Age structure is an important
variable for planning socio-economic development, in the process of labor resource

planning. It is also an important basis for assessing population processes, population
reproduction, planning and monitoring the implementation of family planning...
Proportion of population in each age group and age group:

It is determined by comparing the population of a certain age (or age group) i with the
total population according to the following formula::
Pi
Ti = P  100
Where
Ti: proportion of population age (age group) i;
P: Total population
Pi : is the number of people age (age group) i
i: is the total age, age group, age range.
The proportion of the population in each age group is an important indicator in the
population structure, a basic indicator to draw the population pyramid and calculate the
indicators: birth, death, and migration.
The proportion of the population in each age group or age group also provides
information about the rejuvenation or aging of the population. The population of a country or
region is classified as “old” or “young” depending on the proportion of the population under
the age of 15 and over 60 years:
Young population: the percentage of children 0-14 years old is over 35%.
the proportion of elderly people over 60 years old is less than 10%.
Elderly population: the proportion of children aged 0-14 under 20%.
the proportion of elderly people over 60 years old is more than 10%.
Median age:
The age that divides the entire population into two equal parts. Median age is an
indicator to assess and monitor population aging or rejuvenation. A population with a higher
median age is "older" and vice versa.
The formula for calculating median age:
P
  Pi
M d  Ld  2 n
Pd
Where
Md: median age of the population
Ld : age is the lower limit of the group containing the median age
n : number of years in the group containing the median age
P/2: half the total population
Pi : Cumulative population from the smallest age group to the group

closest to the group containing the median age
Pd : Population of the group containing the median age
3.3.2. Population dependency ratio:
* Population dependency ratio:
The population dependency ratio expresses the comparative relationship between the non-
working age population (under 15 and 60 years old and older) and the total number of people
of working age (15-59). The formula for calculating the population dependency ratio is as
follows::
P0-14+ P60+
Overall dependency ratio (DR) = P15-59 x 100
The overall dependency ratio shows how many people of working age, on average,
have to "carry" for how many people outside of working age. When the overall dependency
ratio is less than 50, the “burden” is low because on average one non-working age person is
“supported” by more than two people of working age. When a population achieves such a
general dependency ratio, we consider that population to be reaching the "golden structure".
The “golden population structure” will end when the overall dependency ratio starts to
increase again and crosses the threshold of 50.
* Golden population structure, also known as population surplus, is a term used to reflect a
population with the maximum proportion of workers (15-59) and the lowest proportion of
dependents ( people aged 0-14 and over 60 years old); the overall dependency ratio is less
than 50%.
According to Ross (2004), when the population is in the "golden structure" period, investment
resources for the young population will need less and can be used for economic development
and household welfare. The economic benefits derived from the change in population
structure are called the “demographic income” and therefore the “golden population income”
is the goal that governments must make full use of when the populations achieve the "golden"
structure.
The United Nations defines the "golden population structure" as the period in which the
proportion of children under the age of 15 falls below 30% and the proportion of the elderly
aged 65 and over remains below 15% of the total population. Europe experienced this period
from 1950 to 2000. China started this period in 1990 and hoped to last until 2015. India
moved into this period in 2010 and could last until the middle of the world. this century.
Many countries in Africa will not have this period before 2015 or later.
According to the above concept, the period of the golden population structure of our country
began in 2003, 2004. This period can last from 30 to 50 years. Obviously, this is a huge
advantage for the cause of industrialization and modernization of the country, if it can take
advantage of the superiority of the labor force of this period in the next few decades.

According to the results of the 2009 Population and Housing Census, the dependency ratio is:
44.7%
In the years when the population structure reaches the golden population structure, it is
necessary to have policies for human resource development and socio-economic development.
This is a valuable opportunity for each family and country to create momentum for
development. However, without appropriate policies, it is not possible to take advantage of
the population surplus for development goals and even face the problem of employment for
workers. In the period of golden population structure, besides the need for policies on
training, development and use of human resources, it is necessary to propagate so that
families, communities and society care about the elderly on issues such as: Work, life,
health... It is necessary to replicate the good model of care, job creation and creating a happy
and healthy life for the elderly.
3.3.3. Sex Ratio:
The entire population, if divided into male and female populations, forms the population
structure by sex. Gender identity plays an important role in many fields. The gender structure
is decisive in reproductive issues, in the division of labor, in health services and in the
mobilization of military service. Monitoring the sex structure of newborns is important in
monitoring and controlling natural sex balance at birth.
To assess the population structure by sex, the following criteria are used:
Sex ratio – (SR): is the ratio of the male population to the female population in the
same population at a given time:
Pm
SR = x 100
Pf
Trong đó:Where SR - Sex ratio

Pm - Male Population
Pf - Female Population
Sex ratios can be calculated for specific age groups or age groups, for example for
children under 1 year of age or for groups over 65 years of age.
Vietnam's sex ratio has always been below 100, from 1960 to 1979. The main reason
for this is that men have a higher mortality rate and are heavily affected by wars. However,
this ratio tends to increase gradually from 1979 to present. Because the affects of war have
gradually decreased and the sex ratio at birth has also increased quite rapidly in recent years,
which has contributed to theincrease of the sex ratio of Vietnam.
The sex ratio of the population of Vietnam had relâche 96.7 men per 100 women by
the time of the 1999 Census. The results of the 2009 Population and Housing Census show
that the sex ratio has continued to rise. continued to increase and reached 98.1 men per 100
women.

The sex ratio is higher in fast-growing regions with occupations that attract male
migrants from elsewhere, and vice versa, it will be lower in regions with rapid growth but
mainly The main focus is on developing industries that attract female workers. The Central
Highlands and the Southeast both have population growth faster than the national average, but
the sex ratio of the Central Highlands in 2009 is 102.4 higher than the national sex ratio. The
South East region is 95.3 which is lower than the overall sex ratio of the whole country.
The sex ratio, or the proportion of men or women in the total population, is a
comparison between the proportion of the population of men or women with the total
population of a region or country, usually expressed as a percentage.
Proportion of men Pm (f)
(women) = P x 100
in total population
Where: Pm , Pf - is the male or female population at a given point in time.

P is the total population at the same time.
The age and sex structure is directly affected by population fluctuations such as birth, death,
and migration. In contrast, the age and sex structure themselves act as independent variables
affecting demographic and socioeconomic phenomena.
4. Population age pyramid
A population pyramid is a graph of the population plotted by age and sex.
The population pyramid is divided into two parts by a vertical axis in the middle called the
age axis used to represent the age or age group of the population. On this axis, the ages can be
broken down by age, or by evenly spaced age groups, usually 5 or 10 years old. The
horizontal rectangular bars on either side of the age axis represent the population structure by
age of men and women: men on the left, women on the right. The lengths of the horizontal
bars represent the number of men and women in each age group or age group or the ratio of
men and women in each age group or age group in the total population.
Population pyramids are usually constructed based on census data from a certain period of
time. The population pyramid is the current picture of many different birth generations, in
which each generation is influenced by different socio-economic-political circumstances.
The shape of the population pyramid not only provides general information about the age and
sex structure of the population at a given time, but also allows the assessment of the basic
characteristics of population reproduction over time. past; analyzing the influencing factors
that changed the size and structure of the population's age and sex in previous times,
especially factors such as wars, mass migration, famine, epidemics, etc. Large and abnormal
fluctuations always leave long-term consequences for population development. At the same
time, the population pyramid also allows us to predict the future development trend of the
population.

Based on the shape of the population pyramids, three basic population models can be
distinguished: an expanding population pyramid (a progressive pyramid), a stable population
pyramid (a stationary pyramid), and a narrowing population pyramid. (degenerate tower).
- An expanding population pyramid has a cone shape, the bottom of the pyramid expands, the
higher it goes, the faster it shrinks, showing high fertility, low life expectancy, and high child
dependency ratio. This is typical of the population of developing countries, with a rapidly
growing young population.
- The stable population pyramid has most of the same parts, showing the number of people
in almost the same age groups, with low fertility, high life expectancy, and low dependency
ratio. This is characteristic of the population of developed countries, the population tends to
be stable in size and structure.
- A narrower population pyramid has a narrower bottom than an enlarged one, and the middle
part is enlarged, showing a decreasing trend in fertility, increasing life expectancy, especially
the proportion of the population in working age. high, high old dependency ratio, aging
population image.
Some examples of population pyramid models:
Morocco (Extended) Canada (Narrow)
Nam
Male N÷
Female Nam
Male N÷
Female
Ale
Male Female

Nam N÷
Sweden (Stable)

PRICE ASSESSMENT EXERCISES:

Given the population data of province X in 2021 as follows:
Age group Average Female Number Sex ratio
(1000 people)
0-4 275 105
5-9 280 103
10-14 246 102
15-19 225 102
20-24 210 100
25-29 190 99
30-34 146 97
35-39 110 90
40-44 96 85
45-49 80 80
50-59 55 70
60+ 229 60
Question:
1, Calculate the proportions of the three basic age groups of the population.
2. Calculate the median age of the population? Comment?
3. Analysis of the dependency ratio of the population of province X .
REFERENCES:
1. Tran Chi Liem, Demographics, Hanoi, Medicine Publishing House, 2009.
2. Central Population and Housing Census Steering Committee, Population and
Housing Census Results 2009, Hanoi, 2010.
3. Department of Population - National Economics University, Demographic
Textbook, Hanoi, 1997.

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Final Version - EN - Lesson 2 - Size and Structure of Population

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Hai Phong University of Medicine and Pharmacy Module: Population Health

Program on Competency-Based Medicine Subject: Social Medicine

POPULATION SIZE AND STRUCTURE

Population size and structure

Population size and structure

Population size and structure

Population size and structure

Where: t0 and t1 are the beginning and the end of a period.

variable for planning socio-economic development, in the process of labor resource

Proportion of population in each age group and age group:

Pi : Cumulative population from the smallest age group to the group

Population size and structure

Trong đó:Where SR - Sex ratio

Population size and structure

Where: Pm , Pf - is the male or female population at a given point in time.

Population size and structure

Population size and structure

Population size and structure

PRICE ASSESSMENT EXERCISES:

Population size and structure

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