REGISTRO HISTÓRICO - EST.

CHILCAYOC
Estación : CHILCAYOC Longitud : 73°43'36.48'' "W" Dpto. AYACUCHO
Parámetro : PRECIPITACIÓN MÁXIMA EN Latitud : 13°52'58.72'' "S" Prov. SUCRE
24 HORAS (mm) Altitud : 3395 m.s.n.m. Dist. CHILCAYOC

Año Ener. Febr. Mar. Abr. May. Jun. Jul. Ago. Set. Oct. Nov. Dic.
1964 20.0 20.0 14.8 10.6 13.0 0.0 1.7 13.4 8.5 14.4 12.9 16.6
1965 21.4 34.5 32.6 20.0 3.5 3.0 12.0 3.5 23.8 9.5 32.9 14.6
1966 15.6 21.8 15.6 15.2 16.5 0.0 0.0 9.5 14.5 27.1 27.6 20.2
1967 25.9 21.5 23.2 14.2 0.0 10.0 15.7 15.6 15.1 18.4 17.3 9.4
1968 17.8 SD SD 5.3 0.0 9.4 0.0 SD 19.9 21.4 10.5 11.1
1969 17.3 46.0 26.0 40.0 0.0 6.0 SD SD SD SD SD SD
1970 46.4 17.9 17.6 0.0 11.3 SD SD SD SD SD SD SD
1971 28.7 24.8 16.7 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 13.2 17.8 0.0 0.0
1972 11.9 17.2 22.4 23.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12.3 19.2
1973 23.2 19.5 21.9 13.8 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.3 0.0 11.7
1974 12.1 19.3 23.4 16.8 8.9 15.0 8.0 33.4 7.7 17.8 14.9 10.7
1975 14.0 10.8 10.1 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.3 3.4 9.7 17.5
1976 20.1 22.4 7.8 13.1 6.9 9.2 5.6 9.1 13.2 0.0 0.0 4.3
1977 9.7 15.2 16.4 5.2 4.3 4.6 0.0 SD SD SD SD 8.6
1978 16.8 15.5 10.6 6.4 0.0 0.0 4.3 6.4 6.4 13.9 12.9 11.8
1979 7.5 10.4 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.4 7.5
1980 9.5 13.7 14.7 0.0 0.0 5.3 4.2 0.0 0.0 11.7 9.6 8.6
1981 16.2 17.0 12.8 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 14.0 16.2 SD SD 21.1
1982 25.4 23.2 18.4 12.9 8.6 8.7 0.0 0.0 17.2 9.7 15.1 14.1
1983 11.8 8.6 6.6 9.7 0.0 0.0 6.4 7.5 16.1 SD 0.0 0.0
1984 16.0 15.1 16.0 8.6 8.5 7.5 7.8 6.8 7.8 9.3 10.9 9.8
1985 SD 16.7 15.6 16.7 13.4 11.0 9.4 0.0 15.1 9.1 SD SD
1986 24.0 20.9 17.4 17.6 12.1 13.2 8.9 11.4 14.2 17.4 17.6 18.7
1987 20.0 8.9 8.9 9.7 17.4 14.6 0.0 7.9 9.8 17.6 7.6 15.2
1988 19.6 20.9 20.8 16.5 17.6 0.0 7.8 0.0 16.4 17.6 10.0 18.4
1989 19.2 20.2 20.0 19.2 12.4 7.9 18.2 20.9 15.4 18.9 18.6 0.0
1990 16.8 15.7 9.1 7.8 0.0 18.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 19.7 24.0
1991 18.9 26.2 26.0 24.2 19.2 21.2 7.9 14.7 17.8 17.8 22.0 13.4
1992 10.9 11.9 11.1 0.0 0.0 18.0 0.0 SD SD SD SD SD
1993 24.2 20.2 24.0 22.2 21.0 18.7 23.8 22.6 21.2 21.2 23.2 25.8
1994 21.5 23.2 22.0 19.8 12.2 10.9 9.1 5.4 10.0 23.2 15.7 15.2
1995 20.9 22.2 16.7 12.4 4.6 14.4 17.6 12.1 11.9 15.0 19.3 20.4
1996 22.7 25.6 22.9 24.7 6.3 2.3 7.2 7.5 5.4 10.7 11.6 18.2
1997 12.0 19.3 8.3 6.6 7.8 0.0 5.8 9.3 18.2 7.5 18.3 18.3
1998 23.6 29.3 19.5 16.0 0.0 4.2 0.0 2.3 3.2 16.3 6.4 12.9
1999 7.4 20.5 21.6 17.5 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.0 23.9 35.7 7.5 15.5
2000 27.0 36.0 31.0 7.0 5.0 6.0 15.0 13.0 18.0 47.0 31.0 21.0
2001 27.0 27.0 28.0 9.0 23.0 12.0 14.0 20.0 19.0 33.0 44.0 13.7
2002 11.0 31.7 24.6 12.1 4.7 2.1 16.5 3.8 11.7 11.4 18.0 21.1
2003 18.6 34.7 28.5 17.5 3.4 1.4 0.8 8.2 8.9 16.5 17.4 33.2
2004 16.2 28.4 18.2 10.8 7.5 9.5 16.0 10.8 14.1 12.1 10.5 13.5
2005 25.2 25.5 15.7 15.9 3.7 0.0 3.5 3.6 14.5 20.3 SD 28.9
 REGISTRO HISTÓRICO - EST. CHILCAYOC
Estación : CHILCAYOC Longitud : 73°43'36.48'' "W" Dpto. AYACUCHO
Parámetro : PRECIPITACIÓN MÁXIMA EN Latitud : 13°52'58.72'' "S" Prov. SUCRE
24 HORAS (mm) Altitud : 3395 m.s.n.m. Dist. CHILCAYOC

Año Ener. Febr. Mar. Abr. May. Jun. Jul. Ago. Set. Oct. Nov. Dic.
2006 35.4 22.8 22.6 16.9 SD 5.8 SD 13.5 SD 12.6 12.4 22.6
2007 26.3 35.5 31.3 13.5 4.1 0.0 8.1 7.3 9.2 13.1 23.7 28.4
2008 20.3 17.8 23.3 4.8 7.5 SD 0.0 0.0 5.7 17.6 8.3 11.2
2009 24.8 27.7 25.5 13.5 2.7 3.5 13.1 3.9 7.8 16.6 26.5 18.4
2010 36.5 22.5 15.8 16.2 6.4 0.0 3.5 3.5 7.8 SD 11.5 24.1
2011 33.7 31.4 19.8 21.9 3.7 2.1 8.7 5.1 SD SD 13.5 21.8
2012 24.7 37.3 28.1 25.9 6.5 2.0 19.0 0.8 12.0 21.0 29.8 31.0
2013 26.6 20.9 30.2 9.1 12.4 5.0 3.1 23.5 8.1 11.2 15.2 22.2
2014 36.0 24.0 12.4 13.2 11.6 0.0 7.8 1.8 25.0 13.6 6.9 18.4
2015 20.4 25.3 23.9 16.0 15.5 3.8 SD SD SD 12.1 13.1 27.8
2016 9.6 19.6 15.8 16.4 11.0 9.2 15.1 5.7 13.9 6.5 15.1 14.9
2017 30.9 33.9 26.4 16.4 12.4 2.7 4.8 2.1 14.3 17.4 10.5 15.9
2018 26.6 21.8 24.0 7.3 5.3 14.3 17.6 6.5 6.4 20.0 12.0 24.7
2019 24.5 24.9 21.0 7.9 9.4 3.6 6.3 0.0 9.3 10.1 26.4 26.2
2020 13.3 27.2 19.0 6.4 22.9 2.0 0.0 3.3 SD 29.4 4.0 SD
2021 35.1 SD SD SD SD SD SD SD SD SD SD SD
Fuente: SENAMHI. Fuente: ANA.
 ANALISIS DE REGISTRO HISTÓRICOS
Estación : CHILCAYOC Longitud : 73°43'36.48'' "W" Dpto. AYACUCHO
Parámetro : PRECIPITACIÓN MÁXIMA EN Latitud : 13°52'58.72'' "S" Prov. SUCRE
24 HORAS (mm) Altitud : 3395 m.s.n.m. Dist. CHILCAYOC

Año Ener. Febr. Mar. Abr. May. Jun. Jul. Ago. Set. Oct. Nov. Dic. PP MAX
1964 20.0 20.0 14.8 10.6 13.0 0.0 1.7 13.4 8.5 14.4 12.9 16.6 20.00
1965 21.4 34.5 32.6 20.0 3.5 3.0 12.0 3.5 23.8 9.5 32.9 14.6 34.50
1966 15.6 21.8 15.6 15.2 16.5 0.0 0.0 9.5 14.5 27.1 27.6 20.2 27.60
1967 25.9 21.5 23.2 14.2 0.0 10.0 15.7 15.6 15.1 18.4 17.3 9.4 25.90
1968 17.8 SD SD 5.3 0.0 9.4 0.0 SD 19.9 21.4 10.5 11.1 21.40
1969 17.3 46.0 26.0 40.0 0.0 6.0 SD SD SD SD SD SD 46.00
1970 46.4 17.9 17.6 0.0 11.3 SD SD SD SD SD SD SD 46.40
1971 28.7 24.8 16.7 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 13.2 17.8 0.0 0.0 28.70
1972 11.9 17.2 22.4 23.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12.3 19.2 23.20
1973 23.2 19.5 21.9 13.8 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.3 0.0 11.7 23.20
1974 12.1 19.3 23.4 16.8 8.9 15.0 8.0 33.4 7.7 17.8 14.9 10.7 33.40
1975 14.0 10.8 10.1 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.3 3.4 9.7 17.5 17.50
1976 20.1 22.4 7.8 13.1 6.9 9.2 5.6 9.1 13.2 0.0 0.0 4.3 22.40
1977 9.7 15.2 16.4 5.2 4.3 4.6 0.0 SD SD SD SD 8.6 16.40
1978 16.8 15.5 10.6 6.4 0.0 0.0 4.3 6.4 6.4 13.9 12.9 11.8 16.80
1979 7.5 10.4 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.4 7.5 14.80
1980 9.5 13.7 14.7 0.0 0.0 5.3 4.2 0.0 0.0 11.7 9.6 8.6 14.70
1981 16.2 17.0 12.8 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 14.0 16.2 SD SD 21.1 21.10
1982 25.4 23.2 18.4 12.9 8.6 8.7 0.0 0.0 17.2 9.7 15.1 14.1 25.40
1983 11.8 8.6 6.6 9.7 0.0 0.0 6.4 7.5 16.1 SD 0.0 0.0 16.10
1984 16.0 15.1 16.0 8.6 8.5 7.5 7.8 6.8 7.8 9.3 10.9 9.8 16.00
1985 SD 16.7 15.6 16.7 13.4 11.0 9.4 0.0 15.1 9.1 SD SD 16.70
1986 24.0 20.9 17.4 17.6 12.1 13.2 8.9 11.4 14.2 17.4 17.6 18.7 24.00
1987 20.0 8.9 8.9 9.7 17.4 14.6 0.0 7.9 9.8 17.6 7.6 15.2 20.00
1988 19.6 20.9 20.8 16.5 17.6 0.0 7.8 0.0 16.4 17.6 10.0 18.4 20.90
1989 19.2 20.2 20.0 19.2 12.4 7.9 18.2 20.9 15.4 18.9 18.6 0.0 20.90
1990 16.8 15.7 9.1 7.8 0.0 18.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 19.7 24.0 24.00
1991 18.9 26.2 26.0 24.2 19.2 21.2 7.9 14.7 17.8 17.8 22.0 13.4 26.20
1992 10.9 11.9 11.1 0.0 0.0 18.0 0.0 SD SD SD SD SD 18.00
1993 24.2 20.2 24.0 22.2 21.0 18.7 23.8 22.6 21.2 21.2 23.2 25.8 25.80
1994 21.5 23.2 22.0 19.8 12.2 10.9 9.1 5.4 10.0 23.2 15.7 15.2 23.20
1995 20.9 22.2 16.7 12.4 4.6 14.4 17.6 12.1 11.9 15.0 19.3 20.4 22.20
1996 22.7 25.6 22.9 24.7 6.3 2.3 7.2 7.5 5.4 10.7 11.6 18.2 25.60
1997 12.0 19.3 8.3 6.6 7.8 0.0 5.8 9.3 18.2 7.5 18.3 18.3 19.30
1998 23.6 29.3 19.5 16.0 0.0 4.2 0.0 2.3 3.2 16.3 6.4 12.9 29.30
1999 7.4 20.5 21.6 17.5 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.0 23.9 35.7 7.5 15.5 35.70
2000 27.0 36.0 31.0 7.0 5.0 6.0 15.0 13.0 18.0 47.0 31.0 21.0 47.00
2001 27.0 27.0 28.0 9.0 23.0 12.0 14.0 20.0 19.0 33.0 44.0 13.7 44.00
2002 11.0 31.7 24.6 12.1 4.7 2.1 16.5 3.8 11.7 11.4 18.0 21.1 31.70
2003 18.6 34.7 28.5 17.5 3.4 1.4 0.8 8.2 8.9 16.5 17.4 33.2 34.70
2004 16.2 28.4 18.2 10.8 7.5 9.5 16.0 10.8 14.1 12.1 10.5 13.5 28.40
2005 25.2 25.5 15.7 15.9 3.7 0.0 3.5 3.6 14.5 20.3 SD 28.9 28.90
2006 35.4 22.8 22.6 16.9 SD 5.8 SD 13.5 SD 12.6 12.4 22.6 35.40
2007 26.3 35.5 31.3 13.5 4.1 0.0 8.1 7.3 9.2 13.1 23.7 28.4 35.50
2008 20.3 17.8 23.3 4.8 7.5 SD 0.0 0.0 5.7 17.6 8.3 11.2 23.30
2009 24.8 27.7 25.5 13.5 2.7 3.5 13.1 3.9 7.8 16.6 26.5 18.4 27.70
2010 36.5 22.5 15.8 16.2 6.4 0.0 3.5 3.5 7.8 SD 11.5 24.1 36.50
 ANALISIS DE REGISTRO HISTÓRICOS
Estación : CHILCAYOC Longitud : 73°43'36.48'' "W" Dpto. AYACUCHO
Parámetro : PRECIPITACIÓN MÁXIMA EN Latitud : 13°52'58.72'' "S" Prov. SUCRE
24 HORAS (mm) Altitud : 3395 m.s.n.m. Dist. CHILCAYOC

2011 33.7 31.4 19.8 21.9 3.7 2.1 8.7 5.1 SD SD 13.5 21.8 33.70
2012 24.7 37.3 28.1 25.9 6.5 2.0 19.0 0.8 12.0 21.0 29.8 31.0 37.30
2013 26.6 20.9 30.2 9.1 12.4 5.0 3.1 23.5 8.1 11.2 15.2 22.2 30.20
2014 36.0 24.0 12.4 13.2 11.6 0.0 7.8 1.8 25.0 13.6 6.9 18.4 36.00
2015 20.4 25.3 23.9 16.0 15.5 3.8 SD SD SD 12.1 13.1 27.8 27.80
2016 9.6 19.6 15.8 16.4 11.0 9.2 15.1 5.7 13.9 6.5 15.1 14.9 19.60
2017 30.9 33.9 26.4 16.4 12.4 2.7 4.8 2.1 14.3 17.4 10.5 15.9 33.90
2018 26.6 21.8 24.0 7.3 5.3 14.3 17.6 6.5 6.4 20.0 12.0 24.7 26.60
2019 24.5 24.9 21.0 7.9 9.4 3.6 6.3 0.0 9.3 10.1 26.4 26.2 26.40
2020 13.3 27.2 19.0 6.4 22.9 2.0 0.0 3.3 SD 29.4 4.0 SD 29.40
2021 35.1 SD SD SD SD SD SD SD SD SD SD SD 35.10

PROM 21.03 22.71 19.49 13.28 7.44 5.80 6.70 7.25 11.70 15.31 14.81 16.77 27.11
DESV. ESTA. 8.14 7.59 6.47 7.26 6.58 6.02 6.56 7.45 6.48 9.04 8.98 7.60 8.17
MAXIMO 46.40 46.00 32.60 40.00 23.00 21.20 23.80 33.40 25.00 47.00 44.00 33.20 47.00
MINIMO 7.40 8.60 6.60 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 14.70
Nº DATOS 57.00 56.00 56.00 57.00 56.00 55.00 53.00 51.00 49.00 49.00 50.00 52.00 58.00
 ANALISIS GRAFICO DE PRECIPITACION MAXIMA 24 HORAS
Estación : CHILCAYOC
Parámetro : PRECIPITACIÓN MÁXIMA EN 24 HORAS (mm)
Año Ppmax (mm)
N°
1 1964 20.0
2 1965 34.5
HISTOGRAMA DE PRECIPITACIÓN HISTORICA
3 1966 27.6
4 1967 25.9 50.0
5 1968 21.4
6 1969 46.0

PRECIPITACIÓN MÁXIMO (mm)

40.0
7 1970 46.4
8 1971 28.7
30.0
9 1972 23.2
10 1973 23.2
11 1974 33.4 20.0
12 1975 17.5
13 1976 22.4
10.0
14 1977 16.4
15 1978 16.8
16 1979 14.8 0.0
1964

2004
1966

1968

1970

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020
17 1980 14.7
18 1981 21.1 Años
19 1982 25.4
20 1983 16.1
50.0
21 1984 16.0
22 1985 16.7
Pmax 24 Horas (mm)

40.0
23 1986 24.0
24 1987 20.0
30.0
25 1988 20.9
26 1989 20.9
20.0
27 1990 24.0
28 1991 26.2
10.0
29 1992 18.0

1996
1964

1966

1968

1970

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020
30 1993 25.8
31 1994 23.2 Años

32 1995 22.2
 ANALISIS GRAFICO DE PRECIPITACION MAXIMA 24 HORAS
Estación : CHILCAYOC
Parámetro : PRECIPITACIÓN MÁXIMA EN 24 HORAS (mm)
Año Ppmax (mm)
N°
33 1996 25.6
34 1997 19.3
35 1998 29.3
36 1999 35.7
37 2000 47.0
38 2001 44.0
39 2002 31.7
40 2003 34.7
41 2004 28.4
42 2005 28.9
43 2006 35.4
44 2007 35.5
45 2008 23.3
46 2009 27.7
47 2010 36.5
48 2011 33.7
49 2012 37.3
50 2013 30.2
51 2014 36.0
52 2015 27.8
53 2016 19.6
54 2017 33.9
55 2018 26.6
56 2019 26.4
57 2020 29.4
58 2021 35.1
 ANALISIS DE OUTLIERS PARA PRECIPITACIÓN MÁXIMA EN 24 HORAS
Estación : CHILCAYOC Parámetro : PRECIPITACIÓN MÁXIMA EN 24 HORAS (mm)
PRECIPITACION MAXIMA 24 HORAS
N° Año J. Asendente Orden P24hr Log(P24hr)
1 1964 12 1 12 20.0 1.301
2 1965 46 1 46 34.5 1.538
3 1966 33 1 33 27.6 1.441
4 1967 29 1 29 25.9 1.413
5 1968 17 1 17 21.4 1.330
6 1969 56 1 56 46.0 1.663
7 1970 57 1 57 46.4 1.667
8 1971 37 1 37 28.7 1.458
9 1972 20 1 20 23.2 1.365
10 1973 20 2 21 23.2 1.365
11 1974 43 1 43 33.4 1.524
12 1975 8 1 8 17.5 1.243
13 1976 19 1 19 22.4 1.350
14 1977 5 1 5 16.4 1.215
15 1978 7 1 7 16.8 1.225
16 1979 2 1 2 14.8 1.170
17 1980 1 1 1 14.7 1.167 Mínimo valor histórico
18 1981 16 1 16 21.1 1.324
19 1982 26 1 26 25.4 1.405
20 1983 4 1 4 16.1 1.207
21 1984 3 1 3 16.0 1.204
22 1985 6 1 6 16.7 1.223
23 1986 24 1 24 24.0 1.380
24 1987 12 2 13 20.0 1.301
25 1988 14 1 14 20.9 1.320
26 1989 14 2 15 20.9 1.320
27 1990 24 2 25 24.0 1.380
28 1991 30 1 30 26.2 1.418
29 1992 9 1 9 18.0 1.255
30 1993 28 1 28 25.8 1.412
31 1994 20 3 22 23.2 1.365
32 1995 18 1 18 22.2 1.346
33 1996 27 1 27 25.6 1.408
34 1997 10 1 10 19.3 1.286
35 1998 39 1 39 29.3 1.467
36 1999 51 1 51 35.7 1.553
37 2000 58 1 58 47.0 1.672 Maximos valor Historico
38 2001 55 1 55 44.0 1.643
39 2002 42 1 42 31.7 1.501
40 2003 47 1 47 34.7 1.540
41 2004 36 1 36 28.4 1.453
42 2005 38 1 38 28.9 1.461
43 2006 49 1 49 35.4 1.549
44 2007 50 1 50 35.5 1.550
45 2008 23 1 23 23.3 1.367
46 2009 34 1 34 27.7 1.442
47 2010 53 1 53 36.5 1.562
48 2011 44 1 44 33.7 1.528
 ANALISIS DE OUTLIERS PARA PRECIPITACIÓN MÁXIMA EN 24 HORAS
Estación : CHILCAYOC Parámetro : PRECIPITACIÓN MÁXIMA EN 24 HORAS (mm)
PRECIPITACION MAXIMA 24 HORAS
N° Año J. Asendente Orden P24hr Log(P24hr)
49 2012 54 1 54 37.3 1.572
50 2013 41 1 41 30.2 1.480
51 2014 52 1 52 36.0 1.556
52 2015 35 1 35 27.8 1.444
53 2016 11 1 11 19.6 1.292
54 2017 45 1 45 33.9 1.530
55 2018 32 1 32 26.6 1.425
56 2019 31 1 31 26.4 1.422
57 2020 40 1 40 29.4 1.468
58 2021 48 1 48 35.1 1.545

PARÁMETROS ESTADISTICOS P24hr Log(P24hr)

Número de datos (n) 58 58
Sumatoria 1572.40 82.016
Valor Máximo 47.00 1.672
Valor Mínimo 14.70 1.167
Media: 27.110 1.414
Varianza: 66.724 0.017
Desviación Estándar: 8.169 0.130
Coeficiente Variación: 0.301 0.092
Coeficiente de Sesgo: 0.6245 0.011

PRUEBA DE DATOS DUDOSOS (Método Water Resources Council)

n= 58.00
Kn= 2.837
Kn: Valor recomendado, varia según el valor de n
(significancia:10%)

Umbral de datos dudosos altos (xH: unidad. Logaritmicas)

𝑥𝐻 = 𝑥ҧ + 𝑘𝑛 ⋅ 𝑠 xH= 1.78

Precipitacion maxima aceptaba

xH
PH= 10 PH= 60.68 mm Ok

Umbral de datos dudosos bajos (xL: unidad. Logaritmicas)

𝑥𝐿 = 𝑥ҧ − 𝑘𝑛 ⋅ 𝑠 xL= 1.05

Precipitacion minima aceptaba

xH
PH= 10 PL= 11.09 mm Ok

Conclución: Como el Valor Minimo es de 14.70 mm y el maximo valor es de 47.00 mm

se observa que los valores de P24 NO se encuentran dentro del rango 11.1 mm 60.7 mm
Por lo tanto: se determina que la serie NO presenta datos dudosos.
 Distribución de frecuencias - Probabilidad de Excedencia

m
0 Xi
0 T P(X 0< x) Dist. Exponencial
1 14.70 1.02 1.69% 100%
2 14.80 1.04 3.39%
3 16.00 1.05 5.08% 90%
4 16.10 1.07 6.78%
80%
5 16.40 1.09 8.47%
16.70 1.11 10.17%

Probabilidad de NO Excedencia
6 70%
7 16.80 1.13 11.86%
8 17.50 1.16 13.56% 60%
9 18.00 1.18 15.25%
50%
10 19.30 1.20 16.95%
11 19.60 1.23 18.64% 40%
12 20.00 1.26 20.34%
13 20.00 1.28 22.03% 30%
14 20.90 1.31 23.73%
20.90 1.34 20%
15 25.42%
16 21.10 1.37 27.12%
10%
17 21.40 1.40 28.81%
18 22.20 1.44 30.51% 0%

25
10

15

20

30

35

40

45

50
0

19 22.40 1.48 32.20%

20 23.20 1.51 33.90% Precipitación (mm)
21 23.20 1.55 35.59%
22 23.20 1.59 37.29%
23 23.30 1.64 38.98%
24 24.00 1.69 40.68%
25 24.00 1.74 42.37%
26 25.40 1.79 44.07% T: Periodo de retorno en años
27 25.60 1.84 45.76% P: Probabilidad de ocurrencia
28 25.80 1.90 47.46%
29 25.90 1.97 49.15% P (X < x ) = probabilidad de no Ocurrencia.
30 26.20 2.03 50.85%
31 26.40 2.11 52.54%
32 26.60 2.19 54.24%
33 27.60 2.27 55.93%
34 27.70 2.36 57.63%
35 27.80 2.46 59.32%
36 28.40 2.57 61.02%
37 28.70 2.68 62.71%
38 28.90 2.81 64.41%
39 29.30 2.95 66.10%
40 29.40 3.11 67.80%
41 30.20 3.28 69.49%
42 31.70 3.47 71.19%
43 33.40 3.69 72.88%
44 33.70 3.93 74.58%
45 33.90 4.21 76.27%
46 34.50 4.54 77.97%
47 34.70 4.92 79.66%
48 35.10 5.36 81.36%
49 35.40 5.90 83.05%
50 35.50 6.56 84.75%
51 35.70 7.38 86.44%
52 36.00 8.43 88.14%
53 36.50 9.83 89.83%
54 37.30 11.80 91.53%
55 44.00 14.75 93.22%
56 46.00 19.67 94.92%
57 46.40 29.50 96.61%
58 47.00 59.00 98.31% n 58