Storm

rainfall max rainfall depth

①
Lecture content
① Analysis of storm rainfall
② Predictive model of storm rainfall for a given
rainfall duration and return period
à Depth-Duration-Frequency curves ②

③ Storm rainfall distribution in time

à design hyetograph
④ Areal variation of storm rainfall
à areal reduction factor
④
Areal Reduction Factor [%]

③
Skript:
- Ch. IV, §2.4 1 hour
- Ch. VII, §1 to 4 (all sections) 30’
Area [km2]

Hydrology – Storm Rainfall – Autumn Semester 2017 1

Importance of storm rainfall analysis and modelling

Storm rainfall is the trigger of many phenomena leading to important water

resources problems and natural hazards
- floods
- urban drainage
- soil erosion
- landslides

Mathematical models of storm rainfall are the design input for a number of water
infrastructures and the prediction of natural hazard occurrences
- natural hazards à risk analysis à protection measures and risk mitigation

Hydrology – Storm Rainfall – Autumn Semester 2017 2

Analysis of storm rainfall

Hydrology – Storm Rainfall – Autumn Semester 2017 3

Objective of the analysis
• to extract from rainfall data (time
series), the extreme values
extreme values for different
durations

10’ 20’ 30’ 1h …

9.2 mm 12.5 mm 21.3 mm 36.4 mm …

RAINFALL DEPTH
• to build a mathematical model that ②
computes the rainfall depth, H*, for R = 10 years
a given storm duration, T*, and a
given return period, R
à Depth-Duration-Frequency curve

STORM DURATION
Hydrology – Storm Rainfall – Autumn Semester 2017 4
Extraction of extreme values
from “raw” rainfall data …

t+T 2

Z (t ) = ∫ X ( τ ) dτ
… to time series of rainfall t−T 2

rainfall intensity, X(t)

intensity… H = max { Z ( t ) , L = 1 year } for different T

T time, t

… to annual maxima of rainfall durations, j

depth, H, for a given duration T year, i 10’ 20’ 30’ 1h …

1990 9.2 mm 12.5 mm 21.3 mm 36.4 mm …

Hi,j = H1990, T=20’ … … … … … …

Hydrology – Storm Rainfall – Autumn Semester 2017 5

Estimation of DDFs

Hydrology – Storm Rainfall – Autumn Semester 2017 6

Empirical Depth-Duration-Frequency curves (1)
Sample data table of the annual
maxima of storm rainfall for
different durations

Ordered data table of the annual

maxima of storm rainfall for
different durations

Hydrology – Storm Rainfall – Autumn Semester 2017 7

Empirical Depth-Duration-Frequency curves (1)
Compute the empirical non-exceedance frequency, F, using a convenient plotting position,
e.g. Gringorten
j − 0.44 1
F( j) = and the corresponding return period, R, as R ( j ) =
N + 0.12 ⎡⎣1− F ( j ) ⎤⎦

j F(j) R(j)

Hydrology – Storm Rainfall – Autumn Semester 2017 8

Empirical Depth-Duration-Frequency curves (2)
• The annual maxima for a given R exhibit a power law behaviour
• Interpolation through a power law à empirical
H T ( R ) = a ( R ) T n( R)
Depth
Duration
F(j=19) à R≈34 years
Frequency (DDF)
100"
F(j=18) à R≈12 years curve
90"
80"
Rainfall'Depth'[mm]'

70"
• The interpolating power law allows to
60" estimate the rainfall depth for any given
50" duration and for the empirical frequency for
which the DDF is estimated
40"
30" Interpola5ng"power"law" • For higher n.exc.. frequencies (=higher
Observa5ons,"2nd"lowest"frequency" return periods) it is necessary to carry
20" Observa5ons,"lowest"frequency"
out a PROBABILISTIC ANALYSIS
10" Interpola5ng"power"law"
à DDF estimation by means of the
0" QUANTILE REGRESSION METHOD
0" 500" 1000" 1500" 2000"
Dura2on'[minutes]'
9
DDF through quantile regression method - summary
Step Purpose / Actions Outcome
① Statistical analysis of annual To compute Statistical characterisation of the
maxima of storm rainfall • basic statistics sample data
• relative frequency function
• cumulative frequency function

② Select an extreme value To fit FX(x) to the data Fitted FX(x) for each duration
probability distribution, FX(x), • statistical tests HT
to describe the sample data • probability paper plot
across all the durations • parameter estimation
F
③ Compute the rainfall To extend the basis of values on HR,T computed from PX(x) for
quantiles from the selected which to estimate the DDF different R and T
distribution for the selected HR,T
durations and return periods

R
④ Estimate the DDF from the To calibrate a(R) and n(R) by Calibrated DDF
quantiles computed in ③ means of regression of the values H T ( R ) = a ( R ) T n( R)
log(HR,T) computed in 3 against
the values of log(T)
Hydrology – Storm Rainfall – Autumn Semester 2017 10
DDF through quantile regression method
Selection of the probability distribution (step ②)
- Extreme Value Type I (EV I, Gumbel distribution)
⎡ ⎛ x −u⎞⎤
FX ( x ) = exp ⎢ − exp ⎜ − ⎟⎠ ⎥ u, α parameters
⎣ ⎝ α ⎦

- the selected distribution holds for all the durations

DDF equation
- the DDF follows a power law log HT
H T ( R ) = a ( R ) T n( R) à log H T ( R ) = log a ( R ) + n ( R ) logT
- the parameters a and n depend
on the return period R

log T
Hydrology – Storm Rainfall – Autumn Semester 2017 11
DDF through quantile regression method – Step ①

• Estimation of the statistics of the sample data ( à sample moments)

1 N
- mean m̂T = ∑ H T ,i
N i=1
N
1
∑ ( H T ,i − m̂T )
2
- variance ŝT =
2

N − 1 i=1
- standard deviation ŝT = ŝT2

• Estimation of the parameters of the EV I distribution

- method of moments
6
α T = α T ( ŝT ) αT = ŝT
à π
uT = uT ( ŝT , m̂T ) uT = m̂T − 0.5772α T

- the estimation is carried out for each duration T

Hydrology – Storm Rainfall – Autumn Semester 2017 12

DDF through quantile regression method – Step ③
• Compute the rainfall quantiles for each duration and for selected return periods

⎡ ⎛ hT − u ⎞ ⎤ ⎛ ⎛ R ⎞⎞
FH T ( hT ) = exp ⎢ − exp ⎜ − ⎜⎝ ⎜⎝ F ⎟⎠ ⎟⎠ è hT ( R ) = uT − α T ln ⎜ ln ⎜
⎛ ⎛ 1 ⎞⎞
⎟⎠ ⎥ è T ( ) = − α ⎟
⎝ ⎝ R − 1 ⎠ ⎟⎠
h F u ln ln
⎝ α
T T
⎣ ⎦
é
R −1
F=
R
⎛ ⎛ R ⎞⎞
by defining the Gumbel reduced variate yR = ln ⎜ ln ⎜
⎝ ⎝ R − 1 ⎟⎠ ⎟⎠
observed extremes

one can write hT ( R ) = uT − α T yR

!

Hydrology – Storm Rainfall – Autumn Semester 2017 13

DDF through quantile regression method – Step ④

• Estimate the DDF from the quantiles computed by means of the EV I distribution

R = 50 years

⎛ ⎛ 50 ⎞ ⎞ ⎛ ⎛ 50 ⎞ ⎞
h1 ( R ) = u1 − α1 ln ⎜ ln ⎜ h12 ( R ) = u12 − α12 ln ⎜ ln ⎜ ⎟
⎝ ⎝ 50 − 1 ⎟⎠ ⎟⎠ ⎝ ⎝ 50 − 1 ⎠ ⎟⎠

H T ( R ) = a ( R ) T n( R)
ê
log H T ( R ) = log a ( R ) + n ( R ) logT

ê
• for T=1 è log (T)=0 è log H T ( R ) = log a ( R )

• n corresponds to the slope of the regression line

Hydrology – Storm Rainfall – Autumn Semester 2017 14
DDF through quantile regression method – Numerical example

Station Davos (1978-1996)

① Statistical moments estimation
② EV I parameter estimation (method of moments)

1h 3h 6h 12h 24h
1 N
Statistical mean 13.99 25.91 34.61 46.56 64.26 m̂T = ∑ H T ,i
moments [mm] N i=1
1 N
st. dev. 6.02 7.56 7.55 9.20 19.06 (
∑ T ,i T )
2
ŝT = H − m̂
[mm] N − 1 i=1

EV I α 4.70 5.89 5.89 7.17 14.86 6

αT = ŝT
parameters π
u 11.28 22.51 31.21 42.42 55.68 uT = m̂T − 0.5772α T

Hydrology – Storm Rainfall – Autumn Semester 2017 15

DDF through quantile regression method – Numerical example

Station Davos (1978-1996)

③Computation of EV I rainfall quantiles

⎛ ⎛ R ⎞⎞
hT ( R ) = uT − α T ln ⎜ ln ⎜ ⎟
⎝ ⎝ R − 1 ⎠ ⎟⎠

1h 3h 6h 12h 24h
Rainfall R = 2.33 13.9 25.8 34.5 46.5 64.0
depth from years
EV I [mm]
R = 50 29.6 45.5 54.2 70.4 113.6
years

⎛ ⎛ 50 ⎞ ⎞ ⎛ ⎛ 50 ⎞ ⎞
e.g. h1(50) à h1 ( 50 ) = u1 − α1 ln ⎜ ln ⎜ ⎟ ⎟ = 11.28 − 4.70 ⋅ ln ⎜ ln ⎜ ⎟ ⎟ = 29.6 mm
⎝ ⎝ ⎠
50 − 1 ⎠ ⎝ ⎝ ⎠
50 − 1 ⎠

Hydrology – Storm Rainfall – Autumn Semester 2017 16

DDF through quantile regression method – Numerical example

Station Davos (1978-1996)

④Estimation of the DDF for R=50 years

a(50) = 28.47 mm h-n

H T ( R ) = a ( R ) T n( R) è log H T ( R ) = log a ( R ) + n ( R ) logT è
n(50) = 0.402

h1 ( 50 ) = 29.6 mm → ln ( 29.6 ) = 3.39

T = 1 : ln H T ( 50 ) = ln ( 28.47 ) + n ( R ) ln (1) = 3.35

Hydrology – Storm Rainfall – Autumn Semester 2017 17

!
DDFs vs IDFs (Intensity –Duration-Frequency curves)
The DDF concept and model can be also applied to rainfall intensities
ê
IDFs, Intensity-Duration-Frequency curves
IT [mm/h]
I1
H T ( R ) = a ( R ) T n( R) è I T ( R ) = a ( R ) T n( R )−1
Return Period, R
I2
é
H
I3
I=
T

t1 t2 t3 tT t

Hydrology – Storm Rainfall – Autumn Semester 2017 18

DDF – Hydrological Atlas of Switzerland method
Template to estimate the rainfall depth from 1 h and 24 h DDF curves
Concept:
EV I Read parameters A, B’, C and D’ on maps
- T=1h, R=2.33 years à C
- T=1h, R=100 years à A
- T=24h, R=2.33 years à D’
- T=24h, R=100 years à B’
24 h Compute DDF for desired R and T using the
equations

A−C ⎡ ⎛ ⎛ 1 ⎞⎞⎤
H 1,R = 1.14 ⋅C − 0.14 ⋅ A + − − ⎜⎝ ⎟
4.02 ⎢⎣ R ⎠ ⎟⎠ ⎥⎦
ln ⎜⎝ ln 1−

B′ − D ′ ⎡ ⎛ ⎛ 1 ⎞⎞⎤
1 h H 24,R = 1.14 ⋅ D′ − 0.14 ⋅ B′ + − − ⎜⎝ ⎟
4.02 ⎢⎣ R ⎠ ⎟⎠ ⎥⎦
ln ⎜⎝ ln 1−

For durations between 1 and 24 hrs interpolate

linearly

N.B. The diagram depends on the valid distribution in the

region
Hydrology – Storm Rainfall – Autumn Semester 2017 19
DDF – Hydrological Atlas of Switzerland method
Regions of validity of EV I and EV II distributions

Hydrology – Storm Rainfall – Autumn Semester 2017 20

DDF – Hydrological Atlas of Switzerland method
Regionalisation of rainfall depth for T=1 h and R=2.33 years
map for estimation of C

Hydrology – Storm Rainfall – Autumn Semester 2017 21

DDF – Hydrological Atlas of Switzerland method
Regionalisation of rainfall depth for T=1 h and R=100 years
map for estimation of A

Hydrology – Storm Rainfall – Autumn Semester 2017 22

DDF – Hydrological Atlas of Switzerland method
Regionalisation of rainfall depth for T=24 h and R=2.33 years
map for estimation of D’

Hydrology – Storm Rainfall – Autumn Semester 2017 23

DDF – Hydrological Atlas of Switzerland method
Regionalisation of rainfall depth for T=24 h and R=100 years
map for estimation of B’

Hydrology – Storm Rainfall – Autumn Semester 2017 24

Design hyetograph

Hydrology – Storm Rainfall – Autumn Semester 2017 25

From DDFs to design storm hyetograph
• DDFs provide a rainfall depth, H, for a given duration, T, and given return period R
⤷ HT(R)
• They do not provide the distribution of the storm event through time à no hyetograph
• Actual rainfall events exhibit temporal variability
• A realistic rainfall input for any design procedure (e.g. storm drainage, flood estimation, etc.)
requires to transform HT(R) into a hyetograph that mimics actual rainfall events
ê
Design hyetograph à synthetic hyetograph
!

Most of the synthetic hyetographs are empirical

Hydrology – Storm Rainfall – Autumn Semester 2017 26
US Soil Conservation Service (SCS) synthetic hyetograph
• The SCS hyetograph defines four types of storms based on a 24 hour storm and associates to each of
them a different rainfall distribution
• The concept is based on the definition of the storm advancement ratio, i.e. the proportion of rainfall
amount progressively falling within the 24 h event
• The concept can be easily extended to any storm duration
(24 h = 100% storm duration)

Fraction of 24 h rainfall

time [hours]
[Chow et al., 1988]

[Chow et al., 1988]

!
Hydrology – Storm Rainfall – Autumn Semester 2017 27
Huff‘s synthetic hyetograph
• The concept is based on time distribution patterns developed for four probability groups
• most severe (1st quartile) à least severe (4th quartile)
• Storms within each quartile are classified according to their probability of occurrence in 9 classes
from 10% to 90%
• 10% probability
à equaled or exceeded
in 90% of the observed
storms
Cumulative percent of rainfall

Percent total storm rainfall

• 50% probability
à equaled or exceeded
in about half of the
observed storms
• 90% probability
à equaled or exceeded
Cumulative percent of storm time
in 10% of the observed
[Chow et al., 1998]
storms
Cumulative percent of storm time
Hydrology – Storm Rainfall – Autumn Semester 2017 28
Triangular synthetic hyetograph

• The concept is based on the assumption of a

trinagular shape for the hyetograph
• The shape of the triangle is dictated by the
storm advancement coefficient
• r = ta/Td , being Td the storm duration
and ta the time to peak intensity
• The peak intensity is given as id = 2P/Td
• where P is the rainfall depth estimated
from the DDF curve
• The recession time is: tb = Td - ta = (1-r) Td
• Typical values of r: 0.30 ÷ 0.45
[Chow et al., 1998]

Hydrology – Storm Rainfall – Autumn Semester 2017 29

Synthetic hyetograph based on the Instantaneous Intensity Method
• Based on the storm advancement coefficient
concept
• r = ta/Td
• Two curves are defined to describe the intensity ib = f ( tb )
ia = f ( t a )
• ia=f(ta) for the time before the peak
• ib=f(tb) for the time after the peak
• The total amount of rainfall estimated from the DDF,
P, is
rTd (1−rTd )
P = i ⋅Td = ∫ f (t ) dt
0
a a + ∫ f (t ) dt
0
b b

where is the average rainfall intensity for T

i d

• Symmetry of f(ta) and f(tb) is assumed

dP
• à = f ( t a ) = f ( tb ) Problem with IDF expression I T ( R ) = a ( R ) T n( R)−1
dTd
for t à ta IT à ∞
solution: solve in discrete form for a fixed Δt
Hydrology – Storm Rainfall – Autumn Semester 2017 30
Alternating Block synthetic hyetograph
• The synthetic hyetograph is developed from the IDF curve IT [mm/h]
P = i ⋅Td
• The total amount of precipitation occurs in
Td = n Δt I1
Return Period, R
• Construction: I2
• the intensity is read from the IDF curve for each I3
duration, i.e. Δt à I1, 2Δt à I2, 3Δt à I3 , …
• the rainfall depth for the first Δt is given by
• P1 = I1Δt Δt 2Δt 3Δt Td t
• the subsequent rainfall depths for each Δt are obtained
taking the difference between successive rainfall
depth values, i.e.
• P2 = I2 2Δt – P1
• P3 = I3 3Δt – (P1+P2)
• … I T ( R ) = a ( R ) T n( R)−1
• The blocks P1 , P2 , P3 , … are reordered with the max
intensity at the center of the hyetograph and the
remaining blocks alternating to the right and left
Hydrology – Storm Rainfall – Autumn Semester 2017 31
Areal variation of storm rainfall

Hydrology – Storm Rainfall – Autumn Semester 2017 32

Spatial variability of storm rainfall
• Storm rainfall has been recognised since long time
to be variable in space
• Intensity declines from the storm centre towards
the periphery of the storm
• Modern radar based observations confirm this
• Neglecting the intensity reduction in design
problems can lead to overestimation of the rainfall
input
ê
• There is need to identify a technique to extend the
design storm rainfall from the point (station) to a
given area
PA
ê ARF = r = = r ( A,Td , R )
P0
• Areal Reduction Factor (ARF)
PA areal storm rainfall
P0 point storm rainfall
A area, Td storm duration, R return period
Hydrology – Storm Rainfall – Autumn Semester 2017 33
Spatial variability of storm rainfall

• The difference between point and areal storm rainfall

⤷ increases
– for increasing area
– for low values of precipitation
– for increasing convective character
⤷ decreases
– for increasing storm duration

• Most of the literature methods consider ARF independent from R à r = r(A, Td)

• Most of the ARF formulations are of empirical nature

Hydrology – Storm Rainfall – Autumn Semester 2017 34

ARF general equation

• Point DDF H T = a ⋅T n
• Areal DDF H T , A = a′ ⋅ T ′ n
where
(
a′ = a 1+ a1 Ab1 + a2 Ab2 )
n′ = n + c1 A d1

and a1 , b1 , a2 , b2 , c1 , d1 are empirical parameters to be estimated from data

( )
HT , A d1
• The resulting ARF is: r= = 1+ a1 Ab1 + a2 Ab2 T c1A
HT

Hydrology – Storm Rainfall – Autumn Semester 2017 35

ARF template of US Weather Bureau (1958)

r=
HT , A
HT
(
= 1− e −1.1T −0.25
+e −1.1T −0.25 −0.01A
)
Area [mi2]

24 h
Percent of point rainfall for given area

6 h

3 h

1 h

30’

0 1000
Area [km2] !
Hydrology – Storm Rainfall – Autumn Semester 2017 36
ARF template of Swiss Hydrological Atlas (1)

Hydrology – Storm Rainfall – Autumn Semester 2017 37

ARF template of Swiss Hydrological Atlas (2)

Hydrology – Storm Rainfall – Autumn Semester 2017 38

ARF template of Swiss Hydrological Atlas (3)

Hydrology – Storm Rainfall – Autumn Semester 2017 39

Storm rainfall
example of application of knowledge

Engineering Problem:
⤷ Design of drainage systems (e.g. roof, parking place, ...)
Solution
⤷ Compute the rainfall volume for an accepted level of risk (return period)

Method ②
⤷ Depth-Duration-Frequency curves

Hydrology – Storm Rainfall – Autumn Semester 2017 40

Storm rainfall
example of application of knowledge

Engineering Problem:
⤷ Assessment of the risk of collapse of a hillslope
Solution
⤷ For a known critical rainfall amount – i.e. landslide triggering rainfall depth
computed from a landslide model – compute the return period of the mobilizing
rainfall
Method ②

⤷ Depth-Duration-Frequency curves

Hydrology – Storm Rainfall – Autumn Semester 2017 41