6/25/2021 African Continent: Challenges of Climate and Demographic Changes | Global Risk Insights

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African Continent: Challenges of Climate and
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Demographic Changes
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population growth between 2019 and 2050.

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trends better. The businesses should do the same, especially when trying to foresee
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problems and opportunities within its strategy.

Considering the present population trend in Africa, the businesses and investors might
well find the continent appealing for strategic development. However, the impact of
climate change is a much worrying factor for any investment in the continent. They
should be even more wary of the climate change impacts in those states that are
unstable or economies that are not fully advanced.

In a recently published book, Africa security scholars Stephen Emerson and Hussein
Solomon claim

“What is frequently overlooked by outside observers is African scarcity conflict fueled

by heightened competition over basic livelihood resources, such as land, water, and
pasture”.

There is data to demonstrate that localized violence over the aforesaid basic resources is
already increasing across the continent. One study even concluded that approximately
35% of all conflict in Sub-Saharan Africa is resource related. Furthermore, the UN
Peacekeeping operational experts gauge that 40% of all intra-state conflict globally in the
past sixty years had links to natural resources.

In fact, resources have been used in the past to fund militias and insurgencies such as the
infamous ‘blood diamonds’ during the civil war in Sierra Leone (1991 – 2002) that helped
fuel war crimes.

Although wars over water have not taken place yet, there is a strong possibility that this
resource could trigger conflicts in future. Indeed, climate change will act as an intensifier
of conflicts and violence.

Chances of conflict

There remains a huge risk that the local problems could spin out of control into a wider
national or international security crisis. For instance, during the second war in the
Democratic Republic of Congo, the civil war resulted in military interventions by Uganda,
Burundi, Angola, Namibia, and Zimbabwe. Although nation-to-nation war in Africa is now
relatively infrequent, this does not mean that there would not be any conflict
between/among African nations in future. After all, there is the risk that the projected
impacts of climate change in Africa twinned with a rapidly expanding population across
the continent could flare-up international conflicts.

However, climate change impacts and growing population would be giving rise to more
intrastate low-intensity conflict than the international ones. These two factors are more
likely to result in the intensification and proliferation of small-scale low-intensity conflict,
the kind that already occurs in the continent. For example, competition between
herdsmen and farmers over water and arable land fuels much of the internal violence of
the Sahel. Climate change and the expanding demographics will mean that these may
become more widespread, longer-lasting and intense.

Alongside the climate change impacts and growing population, the threats to human
development – such as poverty, crime and health – could lead to insecurity and instability.
Indeed, the threats to human development historically led the African countries to
instability. Hence, the continent must already start preparing to deal with these risk
factors.

Paying close attention to business-intelligence and geopolitical-risk-analysis will help the

businesses and investors to understand the risks involved in Africa and how to mitigate
them. An understanding of the present public policies of African countries will allow
businesses to observe whether or not a country is putting proper mechanisms in place to
mitigate future risks. It is very much certain that over the coming years, some countries
will adapt and plan better than others.

Moreover, the businesses should also pay close attention to other problems in case the
aforesaid problems act as catalysts for other grievances to result in instability, creating
further risks.
 
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6/25/2021 African Continent: Challenges of Climate and Demographic Changes | Global Risk Insights

 In Conclusion  
Global Risk Insights 

Prior to making investments or other plans, it would be prudent for businesses, which
want to operate in a specific country or geographic area, to devote the time necessary to
understand the dynamics of the conflicts in that country/area. For example, it would be
helpful to understand the nature of violence that usually occur in a particular area. After
 all, it would certainly help a business to take an appropriate decision regarding
investment into a country if the business knew that small-scale violence can be mitigated

far easier than the potential for international war, or deeply ingrained guerrilla
 insurgencies or terrorist cells.

 These risk-factors may seem a lot for businesses and investors to analyze. An
 agribusiness or an investment bank is not in the geopolitical analysis industry, after all.

 Hence, businesses and investors that are looking to invest in African countries have the
option of reaching out to those people who are professionally engaged in the field of

analyzing the relevant risks involved for a particular industry in a given
region/country/area.

The consultancy from such experts would help the businesses and investors to
understand, and decide, whether or not to invest in an African country given the facts
that the climate change impacts are worsening in Africa, the continent’s populations are
expanding and there are more extreme and pressing factors today in the world than ever
before.


CATEGORIES:
AFRICA , ENVIRONMENT  TAGS:
AFRICA , CLIMATE CHANGE ,
DEMOGRAPHICS , DEMOGRAPHY ,
ENVIRONMENT , POPULATION ,
POPULATION GROWTH , SAHEL REGION ,
SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

ABOUT AUTHOR

Scott Houghton

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