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  • Forecasting J 1st 2nd 3rd Session-5

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    Gandhi Jenny Rakeshkumar BD20029
    7 views4 pages
    The document discusses quantitative forecasting methods for time series data such as sales, passenger vehicle movements, and air passenger movements. It describes three forecasting approaches: level forecasting, level + trend forecasting, and level + trend + seasonality forecasting. It also discusses components of demand including seasonal peaks, trend, and random variation. Two quantitative forecasting methods are described: 1) the naive method which simply forecasts that future demand will be equal to past demand and 2) the simple average method which forecasts demand as the average of past demands.

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    Forecasting j 1st 2nd 3rd Session-5

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    The document discusses quantitative forecasting methods for time series data such as sales, passenger vehicle movements, and air passenger movements. It describes three forecasting approaches: level forecasting, level + trend forecasting, and level + trend + seasonality forecasting. It also discusses components of demand including seasonal peaks, trend, and random variation. Two quantitative forecasting methods are described: 1) the naive method which simply forecasts that future demand will be equal to past demand and 2) the simple average method which forecasts demand as the average of past demands.

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    © All Rights Reserved
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    7 views4 pages

    Forecasting J 1st 2nd 3rd Session-5

    Uploaded by

    Gandhi Jenny Rakeshkumar BD20029
    The document discusses quantitative forecasting methods for time series data such as sales, passenger vehicle movements, and air passenger movements. It describes three forecasting approaches: level forecasting, level + trend forecasting, and level + trend + seasonality forecasting. It also discusses components of demand including seasonal peaks, trend, and random variation. Two quantitative forecasting methods are described: 1) the naive method which simply forecasts that future demand will be equal to past demand and 2) the simple average method which forecasts demand as the average of past demands.

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    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
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    of 4

    Quantitative Methods

    ❖ Time series data: Historical data to make forecasts


    Demand ( in Lakhs) Passenger Vehicle Sales Air passenger
    (In India) movements (in Lakhs)
    35
    4000000 450
    30 3500000 400
    25 3000000 350
    300
    2500000
    20 250
    2000000
    200
    15 1500000 150
    10 1000000 100
    500000 50
    5 0
    0
    0

    Level Level +Trend Level + Trend+ Seasonality

    Do you think forecasting approach will be same for all type of products
    Components of Demand

    Seasonal
    peaks Trend
    component
    Demand for product or

    Actual
    demand
    line

    Average
    demand over
    service

    four years
    Random
    variation
    Year Year Year Year
    1 2 3 4

    Demand=Systematic part (level +trend +seasonality)+ Random part (error)


    Method 1 : The Naïve Method
    ● Ft=At-1 : Simplest Approach to Forecasting

    Period Demand Forecast


    Forecast of Demand
    in Period 2
    1 130 -
    (This forecast made
    after seeing
    Demand in Period 2 155 130
    1)
    3 145 155
    Forecast of Demand
    in Period 5 4 160 145
    (This forecast made
    after seeing 5 151 160
    Demand in Period
    4)
    6 143 151

    7 143
    Method 2 : The Simple Average
    ● Ft=(A1+ A2+A3+…At-1)/(t-1)

    Forecast of Period Demand Forecast


    Demand in Period
    2 (This forecast 1 130 -
    made after seeing
    Demand in Period
    1) 2 155 130.00 130/1 =130

    3 145 142.50 (130+155)/2 =142.50

    4 160 143.33 (130+155+145)/3 = 143.33


    Forecast of Demand
    in Period 5 (This
    forecast made after 5 151 147.50 (130+155+145+160)/4 = 147.5

    seeing Demand in
    Period 4) 6 143 148.20 (130+155+145+160+151)/5 = 148.2

    7 147.33 (130+155+145+160+151+143)/6 = 147.33

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