INR Crore 2017A

INCOME
Revenue from operations ₹ 30,984
Other income ₹ 522
Total Income ₹ 31,506
Expenses
Cost of material consumed ₹ 19,019
Purchase of stock in trade ₹ -
Change in inventories of finished goods traded goods and workin progress ₹ 97
Excise duty on sale of goods ₹ 2,373
Employee benefit expensess ₹ 1,432
Other expenses ₹ 3,486
Total Expenses ₹ 26,407
Earnings Before Interest Depreciation and Tax (EBITDA) ₹ 5,099
Finance Cost ₹ 27
Depreciation and amortisation expense ₹ 502
Earnings Before Associate's share of profit and Exceptional Items and Tax ₹ 4,569
Share of profit(loss) of associates ₹ 55
Gain in dilution of interest associate ₹ 262
Exceptional Item ₹ -
profit before tax ₹ 4,886
Tax expense
Total tax expensess ₹ 1,339

Profit for the year ₹ 3,547

Dividend paid ₹ 1,737
Other equity ₹ 1,810
 2018A 2019A 2020A 2021A 2022E 2023E

₹ 33,101 ₹ 33,972 ₹ 29,255 ₹ 30,959 ₹ 35,145 ₹ 38,840

₹ 523 ₹ 687 ₹ 731 ₹ 558 ₹ 856 ₹ 946
₹ 33,624 ₹ 34,659 ₹ 29,986 ₹ 31,517 ₹ 36,002 ₹ 39,786

₹ 21,996 ₹ 23,503 ₹ 20,004 ₹ 21,968 ₹ 24,032 ₹ 26,558

₹ - ₹ - ₹ - ₹ 31 ₹ - ₹ -
₹ (110) ₹ (59) ₹ (173) ₹ (256) ₹ - ₹ -
₹ 643 ₹ 1 ₹ 1 ₹ - ₹ - ₹ -
₹ 1,584 ₹ 1,778 ₹ 1,889 ₹ 1,951 ₹ 1,926 ₹ 2,195
₹ 3,664 ₹ 3,730 ₹ 3,473 ₹ 3,165 ₹ 3,894 ₹ 4,290
₹ 27,776 ₹ 28,954 ₹ 25,194 ₹ 26,860 ₹ 29,851 ₹ 33,043
₹ 5,848 ₹ 5,705 ₹ 4,791 ₹ 4,657 ₹ 6,150 ₹ 6,744
₹ 31 ₹ 37 ₹ 47 ₹ 46 ₹ 46 ₹ 46
₹ 575 ₹ 624 ₹ 846 ₹ 715 ₹ 925 ₹ 1,003
₹ 5,242 ₹ 5,044 ₹ 3,899 ₹ 3,896 ₹ 5,178 ₹ 5,695
₹ 50 ₹ 61 ₹ 35 ₹ (47) ₹ - ₹ -
₹ - ₹ - ₹ - ₹ - ₹ - ₹ -
₹ - ₹ - ₹ 678 ₹ - ₹ - ₹ -
₹ 5,292 ₹ 5,104 ₹ 4,612 ₹ 3,849 ₹ 5,178 ₹ 5,695

₹ 1,570 ₹ 1,638 ₹ 952 ₹ 913 ₹ 1,295 ₹ 1,424

₹ 3,722 ₹ 3,466 ₹ 3,660 ₹ 2,936 ₹ 3,884 ₹ 4,271

₹ 1,698 ₹ 1,929 ₹ 1,957 ₹ 1,918 ₹ 2,090 ₹ 2,339
₹ 2,025 ₹ 1,538 ₹ 1,703 ₹ 1,018 ₹ 1,794 ₹ 1,932
 2024E 2025E 2026E

₹ 42,882 ₹ 43,487 ₹ 44,076

₹ 1,045 ₹ 1,060 ₹ 1,074
₹ 43,927 ₹ 44,547 ₹ 45,150

₹ 29,322 ₹ 29,736 ₹ 30,139

₹ - ₹ - ₹ -
₹ - ₹ - ₹ -
₹ - ₹ - ₹ -
₹ 2,498 ₹ 2,585 ₹ 2,574
₹ 4,734 ₹ 4,806 ₹ 4,799
₹ 36,554 ₹ 37,126 ₹ 37,512
₹ 7,373 ₹ 7,420 ₹ 7,639
₹ 46 ₹ 46 ₹ 46
₹ 1,073 ₹ 1,138 ₹ 1,206
₹ 6,253 ₹ 6,236 ₹ 6,386
₹ - ₹ - ₹ -
₹ - ₹ - ₹ -
₹ - ₹ - ₹ -
₹ 6,253 ₹ 6,236 ₹ 6,386

₹ 1,563 ₹ 1,559 ₹ 1,596

₹ 4,690 ₹ 4,677 ₹ 4,789

₹ 2,655 ₹ 2,657 ₹ 2,752
₹ 2,035 ₹ 2,021 ₹ 2,037
INR Crore 2017A 2018A 2019A 2020A
ASSETS
Non-current assets
Property Plant And Equipment ₹ 4,495 ₹ 4,771 ₹ 4,793 ₹ 5,786
Capital Work In Progress ₹ 387 ₹ 239 ₹ 385 ₹ 205
Right Of Use Of Assets ₹ - ₹ 519
Other Intangible Assets ₹ 104 ₹ 190 ₹ 160 ₹ 168
Intangible Assets Under Developments ₹ 194 ₹ 116 ₹ 188 ₹ 187
Equity Accounted Investments In Associates ₹ 1,026 ₹ 1,160 ₹ 1,705 ₹ 2,098
Financial Assets:
Investments ₹ 497 ₹ 918 ₹ 1,234 ₹ 1,551
Loans ₹ 48 ₹ 46 ₹ 60 ₹ 68
Other Finacial Assets ₹ - ₹ - ₹ 34 ₹ -
Deffered Tax Assets
Income Tax Assets(Net) ₹ 333 ₹ 395 ₹ 856 ₹ 322
Other Non Current Assets ₹ 658 ₹ 560 ₹ 676 ₹ 122
Total non current assets ₹ 7,742 ₹ 8,395 ₹ 10,090 ₹ 11,025

Current Assets
Inventories ₹ 709 ₹ 963 ₹ 1,250 ₹ 1,282
Financial Assets:
Investments ₹ 4,544 ₹ 5,591 ₹ 3,174 ₹ 4,709
Trade Receivables ₹ 1,552 ₹ 1,427 ₹ 2,745 ₹ 1,512
Cash And Cash Equalents ₹ 74 ₹ 131 ₹ 208 ₹ 305
Bank Balance Other Than Above ₹ 121 ₹ 107 ₹ 96 ₹ 130
Loans ₹ 25 ₹ 29 ₹ 25 ₹ 24
Other Financial Assets ₹ 145 ₹ 543 ₹ 654 ₹ 364
Other Current Assets ₹ 401 ₹ 212 ₹ 262 ₹ 323
Total Current Assets ₹ 7,571 ₹ 9,002 ₹ 8,413 ₹ 8,649
Total assets ₹ 15,312 ₹ 17,397 ₹ 18,503.47 ₹ 19,674

EQUITY AND LIABILITIES

Equity :
Equity Share Capital ₹ 40 ₹ 40 ₹ 40 ₹ 40
Other Equity ₹ 10,276 ₹ 11,932 ₹ 13,080 ₹ 14,366
Equity Attributed To The Owners Of The Comp ₹ 10,316 ₹ 11,971 ₹ 13,120 ₹ 14,406
Non Controlling Interests ₹ 67 ₹ 93 ₹ 116 ₹ 141
Total equity ₹ 10,383 ₹ 12,065 ₹ 13,237 ₹ 14,547

LIABILITIES
Non Current Liabilities
Finacial Liabilities:
Borrowings ₹ 208 ₹ 150 ₹ 125 ₹ 44
Lease Liabilities ₹ - ₹ - ₹ - ₹ 208
Other Financial Liabilities ₹ - ₹ - ₹ - ₹ -
Provisions ₹ 76 ₹ 119 ₹ 121 ₹ 124
Deffered Tax Liabilities (Net) ₹ 469 ₹ 582 ₹ 613 ₹ 473
Total Non Current Liabilities ₹ 752 ₹ 851 ₹ 859 ₹ 848

Current Liabilities
Borrowings ₹ 40 ₹ 75 ₹ 184 ₹ 166
Lease Liabilities ₹ - ₹ - ₹ - ₹ 33
Trade Payables ₹ 3,266 ₹ 3,375 ₹ 3,438 ₹ 3,128
Other Financial Liabilities ₹ 371 ₹ 205 ₹ 227 ₹ 261
Other Current Liabilities ₹ 457 ₹ 765 ₹ 501 ₹ 531
Provisions ₹ 43 ₹ 60 ₹ 60 ₹ 160
Total Current Liabilities ₹ 4,177 ₹ 4,481 ₹ 4,409 ₹ 4,279
Total Equity And Liabilites ₹ 15,312 ₹ 17,397 ₹ 18,504 ₹ 19,674

check ₹ - ₹ - ₹ - ₹ -
 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E

₹ 5,551 ₹ 5,688 ₹ 5,955 ₹ 6,051 ₹ 5,977 ₹ 5,899

₹ 236 ₹ 236 ₹ 236 ₹ 236 ₹ 236 ₹ 236
₹ 511 ₹ 511 ₹ 511 ₹ 511 ₹ 511 ₹ 511
₹ 318 ₹ 331 ₹ 346 ₹ 359 ₹ 369 ₹ 380
₹ 259 ₹ 259 ₹ 259 ₹ 259 ₹ 259 ₹ 259
₹ 2,408 ₹ 2,408 ₹ 2,408 ₹ 2,408 ₹ 2,408 ₹ 2,408

₹ 1,949 ₹ 2,505 ₹ 3,172 ₹ 4,026 ₹ 5,129 ₹ 6,512

₹ 53 ₹ 53 ₹ 53 ₹ 53 ₹ 53 ₹ 53
₹ - ₹ - ₹ - ₹ - ₹ - ₹ -

₹ 378 ₹ 378 ₹ 378 ₹ 378 ₹ 378 ₹ 378

₹ 63 ₹ 63 ₹ 63 ₹ 63 ₹ 63 ₹ 63
₹ 11,726 ₹ 12,432 ₹ 13,382 ₹ 14,345 ₹ 15,383 ₹ 16,699

₹ 1,789 ₹ 1,255 ₹ 1,451 ₹ 1,609 ₹ 1,563 ₹ 1,615

₹ 6,225 ₹ 5,420 ₹ 5,920 ₹ 7,169 ₹ 7,337 ₹ 7,080

₹ 2,275 ₹ 2,039 ₹ 2,397 ₹ 2,442 ₹ 2,534 ₹ 2,589
₹ 275 ₹ 1,188 ₹ 1,536 ₹ 1,723 ₹ 2,486 ₹ 3,422
₹ 122 ₹ - ₹ - ₹ - ₹ - ₹ -
₹ 40 ₹ 28 ₹ 31 ₹ 34 ₹ 35 ₹ 35
₹ 366 ₹ 539 ₹ 585 ₹ 601 ₹ 626 ₹ 648
₹ 279 ₹ 300 ₹ 352 ₹ 404 ₹ 392 ₹ 397
₹ 11,370 ₹ 10,769 ₹ 12,272 ₹ 13,981 ₹ 14,973 ₹ 15,786
₹ 23,096 ₹ 23,200 ₹ 25,654 ₹ 28,326 ₹ 30,355 ₹ 32,485

₹ 40 ₹ 40 ₹ 40 ₹ 40 ₹ 40 ₹ 40
₹ 15,376 ₹ 17,171 ₹ 19,102 ₹ 21,137 ₹ 23,158 ₹ 25,195
₹ 15,416 ₹ 17,210 ₹ 19,142 ₹ 21,177 ₹ 23,198 ₹ 25,235
₹ 143 ₹ 143 ₹ 143 ₹ 143 ₹ 143 ₹ 143
₹ 15,560 ₹ 17,354 ₹ 19,285 ₹ 21,321 ₹ 23,341 ₹ 25,379
₹ 45 ₹ 45 ₹ 45 ₹ 45 ₹ 45 ₹ 45
₹ 212 ₹ 212 ₹ 212 ₹ 212 ₹ 212 ₹ 212
₹ 146 ₹ 146 ₹ 146 ₹ 146 ₹ 146 ₹ 146
₹ 176 ₹ 176 ₹ 176 ₹ 176 ₹ 176 ₹ 176
₹ 453 ₹ 453 ₹ 453 ₹ 453 ₹ 453 ₹ 453
₹ 1,032 ₹ 1,032 ₹ 1,032 ₹ 1,032 ₹ 1,032 ₹ 1,032

₹ 285 ₹ 150 ₹ 184 ₹ 197 ₹ 188 ₹ 197

₹ 30 ₹ 12 ₹ 17 ₹ 24 ₹ 18 ₹ 19
₹ 5,264 ₹ 3,637 ₹ 4,034 ₹ 4,483 ₹ 4,520 ₹ 4,582
₹ 179 ₹ 266 ₹ 307 ₹ 352 ₹ 349 ₹ 349
₹ 571 ₹ 648 ₹ 670 ₹ 767 ₹ 775 ₹ 787
₹ 176 ₹ 102 ₹ 124 ₹ 152 ₹ 133 ₹ 140
₹ 6,505 ₹ 4,815 ₹ 5,337 ₹ 5,974 ₹ 5,982 ₹ 6,074
₹ 23,096 ₹ 23,200 ₹ 25,654 ₹ 28,326 ₹ 30,355 ₹ 32,485

₹ - ₹ - ₹ - ₹ - ₹ - ₹ -
Cash Flow Statement 2022 2023 2024 2025
Net Profit ₹ 3,884 ₹ 4,271 ₹ 4,690 ₹ 4,677
Add Depreciation ₹ 925 ₹ 1,003 ₹ 1,073 ₹ 1,138
Less Change in Net Working Capital ₹ 296 ₹ 634 ₹ 885 ₹ 220
Cash Flow from Operating Activities ₹ 4,513 ₹ 4,639 ₹ 4,878 ₹ 5,595

Change in Investments ₹ 556 ₹ 667 ₹ 854 ₹ 1,102

Capital Expenditure ₹ 1,075 ₹ 1,285 ₹ 1,183 ₹ 1,073
Cash Flow from Investing Activities ₹ (1,632) ₹ (1,952) ₹ (2,037) ₹ (2,176)

Changes to Equity ₹ - ₹ - ₹ - ₹ -
Loans Raised ₹ - ₹ - ₹ - ₹ -
Loans Repaid ₹ - ₹ - ₹ - ₹ -
Finance Costs Paid ₹ - ₹ - ₹ - ₹ -
Dividend Paid ₹ 2,089.71 ₹ 2,339.24 ₹ 2,654.67 ₹ 2,656.51
Cash Flow from Financing Activities ₹ 2,089.71 ₹ 2,339.24 ₹ 2,654.67 ₹ 2,656.51

Total Cash Flow ₹ 792 ₹ 347 ₹ 187 ₹ 763

Beginning Cash Balance ₹ 396 ₹ 1,188 ₹ 1,536 ₹ 1,723
Closing Cash Balance in Balance Sheet ₹ 1,188 ₹ 1,536 ₹ 1,723 ₹ 2,486
2026
₹ 4,789
₹ 1,206
₹ (215)
₹ 6,211

₹ 1,384
₹ 1,139
₹ (2,522)

₹ -
₹ -
₹ -
₹ -
₹ 2,752.18
₹ 2,752.18

₹ 936
₹ 2,486
₹ 3,422
INR Crore June 30,2018
FY 19
INCOME
Revenue from operations ₹ 8,913
Other income ₹ 117
Total Income ₹ 9,031
Expenses
Cost of material consumed ₹ 6,161
Purchase of stock in trade ₹ -
Change in inventories of finished goods traded goods and workin progress ₹ 45
Excise duty on sale of goods ₹ 0
Employee benefit expensess ₹ 424
Other expenses ₹ 880
Total Expenses ₹ 7,511
Earnings Before Interest Depreciation and Tax (EBITDA) ₹ 1,520
Finance Cost ₹ 8
Depreciation and amortisation expense ₹ 154
Earnings Before Associate's share of profit and Exceptional Items and Tax ₹ 1,358
Share of profit(loss) of associates ₹ 6
Gain in dilution of interest associate ₹ -
Exceptional Item(income/expense) ₹ -
profit before tax ₹ 1,363
Tax expense
Total tax expensess ₹ 438

Profit for the year ₹ 925

Sep 30,2018 Dec 31,2018 March 31,2019 June 30,2019 Sep 30,2019 Dec 31,2019
FY 19 FY 20

₹ 9,168 ₹ 7,937 ₹ 7,953 ₹ 8,186 ₹ 7,661 ₹ 7,075

₹ 211 ₹ 191 ₹ 167 ₹ 224 ₹ 165 ₹ 185
₹ 9,380 ₹ 8,128 ₹ 8,121 ₹ 8,410 ₹ 7,825 ₹ 7,259

₹ 6,465 ₹ 5,511 ₹ 5,366 ₹ 5,711 ₹ 5,410 ₹ 4,786

₹ - ₹ - ₹ - ₹ - ₹ - ₹ -
₹ -122 ₹ -63 ₹ 80 ₹ -26 ₹ -265 ₹ -103
₹ 0 ₹ 0 ₹ 0 ₹ 0 ₹ 0 ₹ 0
₹ 446 ₹ 447 ₹ 460 ₹ 483 ₹ 478 ₹ 481
₹ 983 ₹ 932 ₹ 935 ₹ 845 ₹ 893 ₹ 853
₹ 7,772 ₹ 6,828 ₹ 6,843 ₹ 7,013 ₹ 6,516 ₹ 6,017
₹ 1,607 ₹ 1,300 ₹ 1,278 ₹ 1,398 ₹ 1,309 ₹ 1,242
₹ 8 ₹ 9 ₹ 11 ₹ 11 ₹ 14 ₹ 12
₹ 157 ₹ 158 ₹ 155 ₹ 242 ₹ 210 ₹ 211
₹ 1,441 ₹ 1,133 ₹ 1,111 ₹ 1,144 ₹ 1,085 ₹ 1,019
₹ 13 ₹ 17 ₹ 26 ₹ 8 ₹ 14 ₹ 25
₹ - ₹ - ₹ - ₹ - ₹ - ₹ -
₹ - ₹ - ₹ - ₹ 737 ₹ -60 ₹ -
₹ 1,454 ₹ 1,150 ₹ 1,137 ₹ 1,890 ₹ 1,039 ₹ 1,044

₹ 472 ₹ 377 ₹ 351 ₹ 633 ₹ 155 ₹ 139

₹ 982 ₹ 773 ₹ 787 ₹ 1,257 ₹ 884 ₹ 905

March 31,2020 June 30,2020 Sep 30,2020 Dec 31,2020 March 31,2021
FY 21

₹ 6,334 ₹ 2,969 ₹ 9,473 ₹ 9,827 ₹ 8,690

₹ 157 ₹ 150 ₹ 134 ₹ 206 ₹ 68
₹ 6,491 ₹ 3,119 ₹ 9,607 ₹ 10,033 ₹ 8,758

₹ 4,097 ₹ 1,896 ₹ 6,692 ₹ 7,021 ₹ 6,359

₹ - ₹ - ₹ - ₹ - ₹ 31
₹ 221 ₹ 166 ₹ 26 ₹ -131 ₹ -316
₹ 0 ₹ - ₹ - ₹ - ₹ -
₹ 448 ₹ 393 ₹ 524 ₹ 532 ₹ 503
₹ 881 ₹ 398 ₹ 922 ₹ 958 ₹ 886
₹ 5,648 ₹ 2,852 ₹ 8,165 ₹ 8,380 ₹ 7,463
₹ 843 ₹ 267 ₹ 1,442 ₹ 1,653 ₹ 1,295
₹ 10 ₹ 12 ₹ 11 ₹ 11 ₹ 13
₹ 183 ₹ 179 ₹ 183 ₹ 180 ₹ 174
₹ 650 ₹ 76 ₹ 1,248 ₹ 1,463 ₹ 1,109
₹ -13 ₹ 1 ₹ 13 ₹ -99 ₹ 38
₹ - ₹ - ₹ - ₹ - ₹ -
₹ - ₹ - ₹ - ₹ - ₹ -
₹ 638 ₹ 78 ₹ 1,261 ₹ 1,364 ₹ 1,147

₹ 24 ₹ 20 ₹ 297 ₹ 335 ₹ 261

₹ 614 ₹ 58 ₹ 964 ₹ 1,029 ₹ 885

Free Cashflow to Firm Calculation 2017A 2018A 2019A
EBIT ₹ 4,569 ₹ 5,242 ₹ 5,044
EBIT(1-t) (or NOPAT) ₹ 3,427 ₹ 3,932 ₹ 3,783
Add Depreciation ₹ 502 ₹ 575 ₹ 624
Less Change in Net Working Capital ₹ 1,085 ₹ -583
Less Capital Expenditure
FCFF
FCFF Growth

Valuation Parameters
Valuation as on Specified Date 8/31/2021
Date of Year Ending 3/31/2022
Tax Rate (Effective Future Rate) 25.0%
WACC 12.5%
Terminal Growth Rate 6.2%

Years 2022E 2023E 2024E

Time to Cashflow in Years 0.6 1.6 2.6
FCFF ₹ 3,438 ₹ 3,354 ₹ 3,696
Discounted FCFF ₹ 3,211 ₹ 2,783 ₹ 2,726

Terminal Value of FCFF ₹ 119,132

NPV of Explicit Cash Flows ₹ 27,385
NPV of Terminal Value ₹ 38,505
Enterprise Value ₹ 65,890
Less Debt ₹ 45
Add Cash ₹ 275
No. of Shares Outstanding (in crores) 20
Equity Value ₹ 66,119
CMP ₹ 2,875
Value per Share (today) ₹ 3,310
Upside/Downside 15.1%
 2020A 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E
₹ 3,899 ₹ 3,896 ₹ 5,178 ₹ 5,695 ### ₹ 6,236
₹ 2,924 ₹ 2,922 ₹ 3,884 ₹ 4,271 ### ₹ 4,677
₹ 846 ₹ 715 ₹ 925 ₹ 1,003 ### ₹ 1,138
₹ 235 ₹ 535 ₹ 296 ₹ 634 ₹ 885 ₹ 220
₹ 846 ₹ 1,075 ₹ 1,285 ### ₹ 1,073
₹ 2,256 ₹ 3,438 ₹ 3,354 ### ₹ 4,522
52.4% -2.5% 10.2% 22.3%

2025E 2026E 2027E 2028E 2029E 2030E

3.6 4.6 5.6 6.6 7.6 8.6
₹ 4,522 ₹ 5,072 ₹ 5,427 ₹ 5,807 ### ₹ 6,649
₹ 2,965 ₹ 2,956 ₹ 2,811 ₹ 2,673 ### ₹ 2,418

Terminal Value of FCFF ₹ 127,471.41

NPV of Explicit Cash Flows ₹ 29,571
NPV of Terminal Value ₹ 36,619
Enterprise Value ₹ 66,190
Less Debt ₹ 45
Add Cash ₹ 275
No. of Shares Outstanding (in 20
Equity Value ₹ 66,420
CMP ₹ 2,864 G ₹ 3,310
Value per Share (today) ₹ 3,321 R 5.5%
O
Upside/Downside 16.0% W 6%
T 6.2%
H
6.5%
R 7%
A
T
E
 2026E 2027E 2028E 2029E 2030E 2031E
₹ 6,386
₹ 4,789
₹ 1,206
₹ -215
₹ 1,139
₹ 5,072 ₹ 5,427 ₹ 5,807 ₹ 6,214 ₹ 6,649 ₹ 7,114
12.2% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0%

2031E 2032E
9.6 10.6
₹ 7,114 ₹ 7,612
₹ 2,299 ₹ 2,187

SENSTIVITY ANALYSIS
COST OF EQUITY
11% 12% 12.5% 13% 13.50%
3990 3365 3115 2908 2722
4143 3465 3197 2977 2781
4358 3604 3310 3071 2860
4578 3742 3422 3164 2937
4982 3987 3617 3324 3069
 2032E

₹ 7,612
7.0%
Name CMP O/S shares (cr.) EPS Sales (cr.)
Eicher Motors ₹ 2,415 27 ₹ 41 ₹ 7,988
TVS Motor Co. ₹ 603 48 ₹ 13 ₹ 19,421
Bajaj Auto ₹ 3,849 29 ₹ 168 ₹ 27,741
Atul Auto ₹ 173 2 ₹ -1 ₹ 317
Scooters India ₹ 37 9 ₹ -2 ₹ 24

Min ₹ 37 ₹ 2 ₹ -2 ₹ 24
Max ₹ 3,849 ₹ 48 ₹ 168 ₹ 27,741
Average ₹ 1,415 ₹ 23 ₹ 44 ₹ 11,098
Median ₹ 603 ₹ 27 ₹ 13 ₹ 7,988
Hero Motocorp 20 ₹ 146 ₹ 30,959

Model Suggested Price ₹ 3,805

Model Suggested Market Value ₹ 76,029
Non Current Debt ₹ 44
Less Cash ₹ 396
Model Suggested EV ₹ 75,676

Model Suggested EV ₹ 65,983

Less Non Current Debt ₹ 44
Cash ₹ 396
Model Suggested Market Value ₹ 66,335
Model Suggested Price ₹ 3,320

Weight Assigned to Price Model 25.0%

Weight Assigned to EV Model 75.0%
Relative Valuation ₹ 3,441
Sales per share BV FCF FCF per share EV(cr.) EBIT(cr.) P/E
₹ 399.81 ₹ 378 ₹ 1,150 ₹ 57.54 ₹ 60,638 ₹ 1,575 58.7
₹ 972.01 ₹ 81 ₹ 227 ₹ 11.34 ₹ 36,571 ₹ 1,712 47.7
₹ 1,388.44 ₹ 943 ₹ 2,866 ₹ 143.44 ₹ 110,954 ₹ 6,248 22.9
₹ 15.88 ₹ 135 ₹ -16 ₹ -0.79 ₹ 390 ₹ -1
₹ 1.21 ₹ 4 ₹ 2 ₹ 0.12 ₹ 318 ₹ -18

₹ 1.21 ₹ 4 ₹ -16 ₹ -0.79 ₹ 318 ₹ -18 22.9

₹ 1,388.44 ₹ 943 ₹ 2,866 ₹ 143.44 ₹ 110,954 ₹ 6,248 58.7
₹ 555.47 ₹ 308 ₹ 846 ₹ 42.33 ₹ 41,774 ₹ 1,903 43.1
₹ 399.81 ₹ 135 ₹ 227 ₹ 11.34 ₹ 36,571 ₹ 1,575 47.7
₹ 1,550 ₹ 772 ₹ 3,537 ₹ 177 ₹ 3,896
P/B P/Sales P/FCF EV / EBIT EV/Sales
6.4 8.3 53.9 41.1 7.6
7.5 1.5 -35.3 22.3 1.9
4.1 4.0 37.9 18.9 4.0
1.3 1.2 -53.2 -298.8 1.2
8.3 13.3 -43.5 -17.7 13.2

1.3 1.2 -53.2 -298.8 1.2

8.3 13.3 53.9 41.1 13.2
5.5 5.7 -8.0 -46.8 5.6
6.4 4.0 -35.3 18.9 4.0
0.0
 Price Multiples
P/E EPS Value Minimum value Weight
Upper 58.7 ₹ 146 ₹ 8,570 ₹ 3,349 30.0%
Lower 22.9 ₹ 3,349
Industry Aver 43.1 ₹ 6,294
P/S Sales per Share Value Mean Value Weight
Upper 4.1 ₹ 1,550 ₹ 6,322 ₹ 6,322 15.0%
Lower ₹ -
P/BV BV per Share Value Mean Value Weight
Upper 4.0 ₹ 772 ₹ 3,094 ₹ 2,114 40.0%
Lower 1.5 ₹ 1,134
P/CF CF per Share Value Mean Value Weight
Upper 37.9 ₹ 177 ₹ 6,710 ₹ 6,710 15.0%
Lower ₹ -
 EV Multiples
Value Contribution EV/Sales Sales Value Mean value
₹ 1,005 Lower 1.9 ₹ 30,959 ₹ 58,298 ₹ 58,298
Upper 0.0 ₹ -
EV/EBIT EBIT Value Mean value
Value Contribution Lower 18.9 ₹ 3,896 ₹ 73,668 ₹ 73,668
₹ 948 Upper 0.0 ₹ -

Value Contribution
₹ 846

Value Contribution
₹ 1,007
Weights Value Contribution
50.0% ₹ 29,149

Weights Value Contribution

50.0% ₹ 36,834
Valuations Today Price Weights Upside/Downside
CMP ₹ 2,875
DCF ₹ 3,310 60.0% 15.1%
Relative ₹ 3,441 40.0% 19.7%
Target Price ₹ 3,363 17.0%
Working capital 2017A 2018A 2019A 2020A
Current Assets
Inventories ₹ 709 ₹ 963 ₹ 1,250 ₹ 1,282
Trade Receivables ₹ 1,552 ₹ 1,427 ₹ 2,745 ₹ 1,512
Loans ₹ 25 ₹ 29 ₹ 25 ₹ 24
Other Financial Assets ₹ 145 ₹ 543 ₹ 654 ₹ 364
Other Current Assets ₹ 401 ₹ 212 ₹ 262 ₹ 323
Investments ₹ 4,544 ₹ 5,591 ₹ 3,174 ₹ 4,709

Current Liabilities
Borrowings ₹ 40 ₹ 75 ₹ 184 ₹ 166
Trade Payables ₹ 3,266 ₹ 3,375 ₹ 3,438 ₹ 3,128
Other Financial Liabilities ₹ 371 ₹ 205 ₹ 227 ₹ 261
Other Current Liabilities ₹ 457 ₹ 765 ₹ 501 ₹ 531
Provisions ₹ 43 ₹ 60 ₹ 60 ₹ 160
Lease Liabilities ₹ - ₹ - ₹ - ₹ 33

As days sales
Inventories 8 11 13 16
Trade Receivables 18 16 29 19
Loans 0 0 0 0
Other Financial Assets 2 6 7 5
Other Current Assets 5 2 3 4

Borrowings 0 1
Trade Payables 38 37
Other Financial Liabilities 4 2
Other Current Liabilities 5 8
Provisions 1 1
Lease Liabilities 0 0
2 2
37 39
2 3
5 7
1 2
0 0

Working Capital ₹ 3,198 ₹ 4,283 ₹ 3,700 ₹ 3,935

Change in WC ₹ 1,085 ₹ (583) ₹ 235

Capex Schedule 2017A 2018A 2019A 2020A

Property, Plant & Equipment ₹ 4,495 ₹ 4,771 ₹ 4,793 ₹ 5,786
Intangible Assets ₹ 104 ₹ 190 ₹ 160 ₹ 168
Gross Long Term Assets: ₹ 13,718
Property, Plant & Equipment ₹ 9,772
Intangible Assets ₹ 3,946

Accumulated Depreciation: ₹ 7,764

Property, Plant & Equipment ₹ 3,985
Intangible Assets ₹ 3,778

Net Long Term Assets ₹ 5,954

Property, Plant & Equipment ₹ 5,786
Intangible Assets ₹ 168

Depreciation ₹ 846
Depreciation as a % of GLTA 6.2%

Total Capex
Maintenance Capex
Growth Capex
 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E

₹ 1,789 ₹ 1,255 ₹ 1,451 ₹ 1,609 ₹ 1,563 ₹ 1,615

₹ 2,275 ₹ 2,039 ₹ 2,397 ₹ 2,442 ₹ 2,534 ₹ 2,589
₹ 40 ₹ 28 ₹ 31 ₹ 34 ₹ 35 ₹ 35
₹ 366 ₹ 539 ₹ 585 ₹ 601 ₹ 626 ₹ 648
₹ 279 ₹ 300 ₹ 352 ₹ 404 ₹ 392 ₹ 397
₹ 6,225 ₹ 5,420 ₹ 5,920 ₹ 7,169 ₹ 7,337 ₹ 7,080

₹ 285 ₹ 150 ₹ 184 ₹ 197 ₹ 188 ₹ 197

₹ 5,264 ₹ 3,637 ₹ 4,034 ₹ 4,483 ₹ 4,520 ₹ 4,582
₹ 179 ₹ 266 ₹ 307 ₹ 352 ₹ 349 ₹ 349
₹ 571 ₹ 648 ₹ 670 ₹ 767 ₹ 775 ₹ 787
₹ 176 ₹ 102 ₹ 124 ₹ 152 ₹ 133 ₹ 140
₹ 30 ₹ 12 ₹ 17 ₹ 24 ₹ 18 ₹ 19

12 13 14 14 13 13
21 21 23 21 21 21
0 0 0 0 0 0
5 6 5 5 5 5
3 3 3 3 3 3

1 2
38 38
3 3
6 7
1 1
0 0
2 2
38 38
3 3
6 7
1 1
0 0
2 2
38 38
3 3
7 7
1 1
0 0

₹ 4,470 ₹ 4,766 ₹ 5,400 ₹ 6,285 ₹ 6,505 ₹ 6,289

₹ 535 ₹ 296 ₹ 634 ₹ 885 ₹ 220 ₹ (215)

2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E

₹ 5,551 ₹ 5,688 ₹ 5,955 ₹ 6,051 ₹ 5,977 ₹ 5,899
₹ 318 ₹ 331 ₹ 346 ₹ 359 ₹ 369 ₹ 380
₹ 14,348 ₹ 15,423 ₹ 16,709 ₹ 17,891 ₹ 18,965 ₹ 20,103
₹ 10,244 ₹ 11,298 ₹ 12,557 ₹ 13,716 ₹ 14,768 ₹ 15,884
₹ 4,104 ₹ 4,126 ₹ 4,151 ₹ 4,175 ₹ 4,196 ₹ 4,219

₹ 8,479 ₹ 9,404 ₹ 10,407 ₹ 11,480 ₹ 12,618 ₹ 13,824

₹ 4,693 ₹ 5,609 ₹ 6,602 ₹ 7,665 ₹ 8,791 ₹ 9,985
₹ 3,786 ₹ 3,795 ₹ 3,805 ₹ 3,816 ₹ 3,827 ₹ 3,839

₹ 5,869 ₹ 6,019 ₹ 6,302 ₹ 6,411 ₹ 6,346 ₹ 6,279

₹ 5,551 ₹ 5,688 ₹ 5,955 ₹ 6,051 ₹ 5,977 ₹ 5,899
₹ 318 ₹ 331 ₹ 346 ₹ 359 ₹ 369 ₹ 380

₹ 715 ₹ 925 ₹ 1,003 ₹ 1,073 ₹ 1,138 ₹ 1,206

5.0% 6.0% 6.0% 6.0% 6.0% 6.0%

₹ 846 ₹ 1,075 ₹ 1,285 ₹ 1,183 ₹ 1,073 ₹ 1,139

₹ 846 ₹ 715 ₹ 925 ₹ 1,003 ₹ 1,073 ₹ 1,138
₹ - ₹ 360 ₹ 360 ₹ 180 ₹ - ₹ 1
4 4 2
 Assumptions 2017A

Revenue ₹ 30,984

Revenue model

Dharuhera 2100000
Gurgaon 2100000
Haridwar 2700000
Neemrana 1100000
Halol 1200000
Chittoor 0
Columbia 80000
Bangladesh 0
total capacity 9280000

Industry Data
Domestic
2-wheelers 17589511

Exports
2-wheelers 2339273

Sales(units)
Domestic Sales 6,478,000
Exports 182,000
Total 6,660,000

Market Share
Domestic 36.8%
Exports 7.8%

Utilization 71.8%

Realization ₹ 46,523

Cost Driver 2017A

Total Cost ₹ 26,407

Raw Material Cost ₹ 19,019.00
RM Cost Per Vehicle sold ₹ 28,557
RM Cost / Average Realization 61.4%

Employee Cost ₹ 1,432

4.6%

Other Expenses ₹ 3,486

Pecent of revenue 11.3%

Tax expense
Tax Rate 27.4%
Total tax expensess ₹ 1,339

Change in inventories of finished goods traded goods and workin progress ₹ 97

Excise duty on sale of goods ₹ 2,373

Working capital 2017A

Current Assets
Inventories ₹ 709
Trade Receivables ₹ 1,552
Loans ₹ 25
Other Financial Assets ₹ 145
Other Current Assets ₹ 401
Investments ₹ 4,544

Current Liabilities
Borrowings ₹ 40
Trade Payables ₹ 3,266
Other Financial Liabilities ₹ 371
Other Current Liabilities ₹ 457
Provisions ₹ 43
Lease Liabilities ₹ -

As days sales
Inventories 8
Trade Receivables 18
Loans 0
Other Financial Assets 2
Other Current Assets 5
Investments 54

Borrowings 0
Trade Payables 38
Other Financial Liabilities 4
Other Current Liabilities 5
Provisions 1
Lease Liabilities 0

Working Capital ₹ 3,198

Change in WC

Other Balance sheet assumptions 2017A

Asset Assumption
Capital Work In Progress ₹ 387
Right Of Use Of Assets ₹ -
Intangible Assets Under Developments ₹ 194
Equity Accounted Investments In Associates ₹ 1,026
Investments ₹ 497
Growth

Loans ₹ 48
Other Finacial Assets ₹ -
Deffered Tax Assets
Income Tax Assets(Net) ₹ 333
Other Non Current Assets ₹ 658
Liability Assumption
Financial Liabilities
Borrowings ₹ 208
Lease Liabilities ₹ -
Other Financial Liabilities ₹ -
Provisions ₹ 76
Deffered Tax Liabilities (Net) ₹ 469
Non Controlling Interests ₹ 67
Equity Share Capital ₹ 40
Other Equity ₹ 10,276

Dividend ₹ 1,737
Payout ratio 49.0%
 2018A 2019A 2020A 2021A 2022E 2023E

₹ 33,101 ₹ 33,972 ₹ 29,255 ₹ 30,959 ₹ 35,145 ₹ 38,840

2100000 2100000 2100000 2100000 2100000 2100000

2100000 2100000 2100000 2100000 2100000 2100000
2700000 2700000 2700000 2700000 2700000 2700000
1100000 800000 800000 800000 800000 800000
1200000 800000 800000 800000 800000 800000
0 400000 400000 400000 800000 1200000
80000 150000 150000 150000 150000 150000
120000 80000 80000 80000 80000 80000
9400000 9130000 9130000 9130000 9530000 9930000

20193329 21180000 17420000 16026400 17548908 19216054

14.8% 4.9% -17.8% -8% 10% 10%

2815016 2865851 3136519 2509215 2383754 2622130

20.3% 1.8% 9.4% -20.0% -5.0% 10.0%

7,360,000 7,610,000 6,220,000 5,800,000 6,544,116 7,307,352

220,000 210,000 180,000 144,000 136,800 150,480
7,580,000 7,820,000 6,400,000 5,944,000 6,680,916 7,457,832

36.4% 35.9% 35.7% 36.2% 37.3% 38.0%

7.8% 7.3% 5.7% 5.7% 5.7% 5.7%

80.6% 85.7% 70.1% 65.1% 70.1% 75.1%

₹ 43,669 ₹ 43,443 ₹ 45,711 ₹ 52,085 ₹ 52,606 ₹ 52,080

-6.1% -0.5% 5.2% 13.9% 1% -1%

2018A 2019A 2020A 2021A 2022E 2023E

₹ 27,776 ₹ 28,954 ₹ 25,194 ₹ 26,860 ₹ 29,851 ₹ 33,043

₹ 21,995.94 ₹ 23,503.46 ₹ 20,004.29 ₹ 21,968.04 ₹ 24,032 ₹ 26,558
₹ 29,018 ₹ 30,056 ₹ 31,257 ₹ 35,615 ₹ 35,971 ₹ 35,611
66.5% 69.2% 68.4% 68.4% 68.4% 68.4%

₹ 1,584 ₹ 1,778 ₹ 1,889 ₹ 1,951 ₹ 1,926 ₹ 2,195

4.8% 5.2% 6.5% 6.3% 5.5% 5.7%

₹ 3,664 ₹ 3,730 ₹ 3,473 ₹ 3,165 ₹ 3,894 ₹ 4,290

11.1% 11.0% 11.9% 10.2% 11.1% 11.0%

29.7% 32.1% 20.6% 25% 25% 25%

₹ 1,570 ₹ 1,638 ₹ 952 ₹ 913 ₹ 1,295 ₹ 1,424

₹ (110) ₹ (59) ₹ (173) ₹ (256) ₹ - ₹ -

₹ 643 ₹ 1 ₹ 1 ₹ - ₹ - ₹ -

2018A 2019A 2020A 2021A 2022E 2023E

₹ 963 ₹ 1,250 ₹ 1,282 ₹ 1,789 ₹ 1,255 ₹ 1,451

₹ 1,427 ₹ 2,745 ₹ 1,512 ₹ 2,275 ₹ 2,039 ₹ 2,397
₹ 29 ₹ 25 ₹ 24 ₹ 40 ₹ 28 ₹ 31
₹ 543 ₹ 654 ₹ 364 ₹ 366 ₹ 539 ₹ 585
₹ 212 ₹ 262 ₹ 323 ₹ 279 ₹ 300 ₹ 352
₹ 5,591 ₹ 3,174 ₹ 4,709 ₹ 6,225 ₹ 5,420 ₹ 5,920

₹ 75 ₹ 184 ₹ 166 ₹ 285 ₹ 150 ₹ 184

₹ 3,375 ₹ 3,438 ₹ 3,128 ₹ 5,264 ₹ 3,637 ₹ 4,034
₹ 205 ₹ 227 ₹ 261 ₹ 179 ₹ 266 ₹ 307
₹ 765 ₹ 501 ₹ 531 ₹ 571 ₹ 648 ₹ 670
₹ 60 ₹ 60 ₹ 160 ₹ 176 ₹ 102 ₹ 124
₹ - ₹ - ₹ 33 ₹ 30 ₹ 12 ₹ 17

11 13 16 12 13 14
16 29 19 21 21 23
 0 0 0 0 0 0
6 7 5 5 6 5
2 3 4 3 3 3
62 34 59 73 56 56

1 2
37 37
2 2
8 5
1 1
0 0
2 1
39 38
3 3
7 6
2 1
0 0
2 2
38 38
3 3
7 6
1 1
0 0

₹ 4,283 ₹ 3,700 ₹ 3,935 ₹ 4,470 ₹ 4,766 ₹ 5,400

₹ 1,085 ₹ (583) ₹ 235 ₹ 535 ₹ 296 ₹ 634

2018A 2019A 2020A 2021A 2022E 2023E

₹ 239 ₹ 385 ₹ 205 ₹ 236 ₹ 236 ₹ 236

₹ - ₹ - ₹ 519 ₹ 511 ₹ 511 ₹ 511
₹ 116 ₹ 188 ₹ 187 ₹ 259 ₹ 259 ₹ 259
₹ 1,160 ₹ 1,705 ₹ 2,098 ₹ 2,408 ₹ 2,408 ₹ 2,408
₹ 918 ₹ 1,234 ₹ 1,551 ₹ 1,949 ₹ 2,505 ₹ 3,172
84.8% 34.4% 25.7% 25.6% 28.6% 26.6%

₹ 46 ₹ 60 ₹ 68 ₹ 53 ₹ 53 ₹ 53
₹ - ₹ 34 ₹ - ₹ - ₹ - ₹ -

₹ 395 ₹ 856 ₹ 322 ₹ 378 ₹ 378 ₹ 378

₹ 560 ₹ 676 ₹ 122 ₹ 63 ₹ 63 ₹ 63

₹ 150 ₹ 125 ₹ 44 ₹ 45 ₹ 45 ₹ 45
₹ - ₹ - ₹ 208 ₹ 212 ₹ 212 ₹ 212
₹ - ₹ - ₹ - ₹ 146 ₹ 146 ₹ 146
₹ 119 ₹ 121 ₹ 124 ₹ 176 ₹ 176 ₹ 176
₹ 582 ₹ 613 ₹ 473 ₹ 453 ₹ 453 ₹ 453
₹ 93 ₹ 116 ₹ 141 ₹ 143 ₹ 143 ₹ 143
₹ 40 ₹ 40 ₹ 40 ₹ 40 ₹ 40 ₹ 40
₹ 11,932 ₹ 13,080 ₹ 14,366 ₹ 15,376 ₹ 17,171 ₹ 19,102

₹ 1,698 ₹ 1,929 ₹ 1,957 ₹ 1,918 ₹ 2,090 ₹ 2,339

45.6% 55.6% 53.5% 65.3% 53.8% 54.8%
 2024E 2025E 2026E

₹ 42,882 ₹ 43,487 ₹ 44,076

100
A
B
2100000 2100000 2100000 C
2100000 2100000 2100000 d
2700000 2700000 2700000
800000 800000 800000
800000 800000 800000
1400000 1400000 1400000
150000 150000 150000
80000 80000 80000
10130000 10130000 10130000

21041579 23040529 25229380

10% 10% 10%

2936785 3347935 3883605

12.0% 14.0% 16.0%

8,148,603 8,327,608 8,499,466

168,538 192,133 222,874
8,317,141 8,519,741 8,722,341

38.7% 36.1% 33.7%

5.7% 5.7% 5.7%

82.1% 84.1% 86.1%

₹ 51,559 ₹ 51,043 ₹ 50,533

-1% -1% -1%

2024E 2025E 2026E

₹ 36,554 ₹ 37,126 ₹ 37,512

₹ 29,322 ₹ 29,736 ₹ 30,139
₹ 35,255 ₹ 34,902 ₹ 34,553
68.4% 68.4% 68.4%

₹ 2,498 ₹ 2,585 ₹ 2,574

5.8% 5.9% 5.8%

₹ 4,734 ₹ 4,806 ₹ 4,799

11.0% 11.1% 10.9%

25% 25% 25%

₹ 1,563 ₹ 1,559 ₹ 1,596

₹ - ₹ - ₹ -
₹ - ₹ - ₹ -

2024E 2025E 2026E

₹ 1,609 ₹ 1,563 ₹ 1,615

₹ 2,442 ₹ 2,534 ₹ 2,589
₹ 34 ₹ 35 ₹ 35
₹ 601 ₹ 626 ₹ 648
₹ 404 ₹ 392 ₹ 397
₹ 7,169 ₹ 7,337 ₹ 7,080

₹ 197 ₹ 188 ₹ 197

₹ 4,483 ₹ 4,520 ₹ 4,582
₹ 352 ₹ 349 ₹ 349
₹ 767 ₹ 775 ₹ 787
₹ 152 ₹ 133 ₹ 140
₹ 24 ₹ 18 ₹ 19

14 13 13
21 21 21
 0 0 0
5 5 5
3 3 3
61 62 59

2 2 2
38 38 38
3 3 3
7 7 7
1 1 1
0 0 0

₹ 6,285 ₹ 6,505 ₹ 6,289

₹ 885 ₹ 220 ₹ (215)

2024E 2025E 2026E

₹ 236 ₹ 236 ₹ 236

₹ 511 ₹ 511 ₹ 511
₹ 259 ₹ 259 ₹ 259
₹ 2,408 ₹ 2,408 ₹ 2,408
₹ 4,026 ₹ 5,129 ₹ 6,512
26.9% 27.4% 27.0%

₹ 53 ₹ 53 ₹ 53
₹ - ₹ - ₹ -

₹ 378 ₹ 378 ₹ 378

₹ 63 ₹ 63 ₹ 63

₹ 45 ₹ 45 ₹ 45
₹ 212 ₹ 212 ₹ 212
₹ 146 ₹ 146 ₹ 146
₹ 176 ₹ 176 ₹ 176
₹ 453 ₹ 453 ₹ 453
₹ 143 ₹ 143 ₹ 143
₹ 40 ₹ 40 ₹ 40
₹ 21,137 ₹ 23,158 ₹ 25,195

₹ 2,655 ₹ 2,657 ₹ 2,752

56.6% 56.8% 57.5%
Ratio Analysis 2017A 2018A 2019A
Liquidity Ratios
Current ratio 1.8 2.0 1.9
Quick Ratio 1.6 1.8 1.6
Cash ratio 0.05 0.05 0.07
Leverage Ratios
Debt to Assets Ratio 7.0% 6.9% 5.6%
Debt/Equity 10.4% 9.9% 7.8%
Interest Coverage Ratio 186.9 189.9 153.4
Efficiency Ratios
Asset Turnover 1.9 1.8
Fixed Asset Turnover Ratio 3.8 3.6
Accounts Receivable Turnover 20.8 15.9
Days of Inventory 8 11 13
Creditor velocity 38 37 37
Debtor Velocity 18 16 29
CCC -12 -11 6
Profitability Margin Ratios
EBITDA Margin 16.5% 17.7% 16.8%
Operating Profit (EBIT) Margin 14.8% 15.9% 15.0%
Net Profit (PAT) Margin 11.4% 11.2% 10.2%
Return Ratios
Return on Assets 23.2% 21.4% 18.7%
Return on Total Capital 40.3% 40.0% 35.9%
Return on Capital Employed 41.3% 40.8% 36.0%
Return on Invested Capital 31.6% 30.5% 25.9%
Return on Equity 34.2% 30.9% 26.2%
Market Value Ratios
Book Value per share 519.1 603.2 661.8
Dividend per share
EPS 177.3 186.1 173.3
No. of outstanding shares (in crores) 20 20 20
EPS Growth 177.3 186.1 173.3

No of share outstanding(crores) 20
FV of share 2
2020A 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E

2.0 1.7 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.5 2.6

1.7 1.5 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.3
0.10 0.06 0.25 0.29 0.29 0.42 0.56

6.3% 5.7% 5.7% 5.6% 5.6% 5.2% 5.0%

8.5% 8.5% 7.7% 7.4% 7.5% 6.8% 6.3%
102.7 100.4 132.5 145.3 158.9 159.9 164.6

1.8 1.4 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.4

3.2 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.9 2.7
16.0 15.5 14.4 15.8 16.0 17.2 17.0
16 12 13 14 14 13 13
39 38 38 38 38 38 38
19 21 21 23 21 21 21
-4 -5 -4 -2 -4 -4 -3

16.4% 15.0% 17.5% 17.4% 17.2% 17.1% 17.3%

13.5% 12.7% 14.9% 14.8% 14.7% 14.4% 14.6%
12.5% 9.5% 11.1% 11.0% 10.9% 10.8% 10.9%

18.6% 12.7% 16.7% 16.6% 16.6% 15.4% 14.7%

25.6% 23.9% 28.5% 28.2% 28.0% 25.6% 24.2%
25.6% 23.8% 28.4% 28.3% 28.2% 25.8% 24.4%
21.7% 18.9% 24.0% 23.9% 23.8% 22.3% 21.7%
25.2% 18.9% 22.4% 22.1% 22.0% 20.0% 18.9%

727.3 778.0 867.7 964.3 1066.0 1167.1 1208.5

183.0 146.8 194.2 213.5 234.5 233.9 228.1

20 20 20 20 20 20 21
183.0 146.8 194.2 213.5 234.5 233.9 228.1
ROCE 2017A 2018A 2019A 2020A 2021A
41% 41% 36% 26% 24%

ROCE 2017A 2018A 2019A 2020A 2021A

26% 24% 28% 28% 28%

Domestic sales 2017A 2018A 2019A 2020A 2021A

Values(units) 6478000 7360000 7610000 6220000 5800000
growth 14% 3% -18% -7%

Export 2017A 2018A 2019A 2020A 2021A

Values(units) 182000 220000 210000 180000 144000
growth 21% -5% -14% -20%

Cost Bridge 2021A %Tage Lower Upper

Revenue 30959.2 100% 0% 100% =1-D18
COGS 21968.0 71% 29% 71% =1-D19
Other Expenses 3165.1 10% 19% 10% =D19-D20
Employee Benefit Expenses 1951.0 6% 13% 6% =D20-D21
Tax 913.3 3% 10% 3% =D21-D22
Depreciation 715.1 2% 7% 2% =D22-D23
Finance Costs 46.4 0% 7% 0.15% =D23-D24
PAT 2936.1 9% -2% 9% =D24-D25

Cost of Goods Sold 2017A 2018A 2019A 2020A 2021A

% of sales 61% 66% 69% 68% 71%
Absolute Growth 16% 7% -15% 10%

Working Capital 2017A 2018A 2019A 2020A 2021A

Working Capital 3198 4283 3700 3935 4470
Growth Rate 34% -14% 6% 14%

Gross Profit Margin 2017A 2018A 2019A 2020A 2021A

HMCL 39% 34% 31% 32% 29%
Industry 36.50% 36% 34% 37% 36%

EBITDA Margin 2017A 2018A 2019A 2020A 2021A

HMCL 16% 18% 17% 16% 15%
Industry 20% 21% 19% 20% 20%
Net Profit Margin 2017A 2018A 2019A 2020A 2021A
HMCL 11% 11% 10% 13% 9%
Industry 9% 10% 9% 10% 10%

ROE 2017A 2018A 2019A 2020A 2021A

HMCL 34% 31% 26% 25% 19%
Industry

ROA 2017A 2018A 2019A 2020A 2021A

HMCL 23% 21% 19% 19% 13%
Industry

ROIC 2017A 2018A 2019A 2020A 2021A

HMCL 32% 31% 26% 22% 19%
Industry

Quarter Analysis Q1FY20 Q2FY20 Q3FY20 Q4FY20 Q1FY21

Gross Profit Margin 67.6% 65.7% 64.5% 66.5% 66.1%

Quarter Analysis Q1FY20 Q2FY20 Q3FY20 Q4FY20 Q1FY21

EBITDA Margin 16.6% 16.7% 17.1% 13.0% 8.6%

Quarter Analysis Q1FY20 Q2FY20 Q3FY20 Q4FY20 Q1FY21

Net Profit Margin 14.9% 11.3% 12.5% 9.5% 1.9%

DuPont Analysis 2017A 2018A 2019A 2020A 2021A

Interest Burden

DuPont Analysis 2017A 2018A 2019A 2020A 2021A

Operating Margin

DuPont Analysis 2017A 2018A 2019A 2020A 2021A

Asset turnover

DuPont Analysis 2017A 2018A 2019A 2020A 2021A

Financial Leverage

DuPont Analysis 2017A 2018A 2019A 2020A 2021A

Tax burden

DuPont Analysis 2017A 2018A 2019A 2020A 2021A

ROE

2017A 2018A 2019A 2020A 2021A

Dharuhera 2100000 2100000 2100000 2100000 2100000
Gurgaon 2100000 2100000 2100000 2100000 2100000
Haridwar 2700000 2700000 2700000 2700000 2700000
Neemrana 1100000 1100000 800000 800000 800000
Halol 1200000 1200000 800000 800000 800000
Chittoor 0 0 400000 400000 400000
Columbia 80000 80000 150000 150000 150000
Bangladesh 0 120000 80000 80000 80000
total capacity 9280000 9400000 9130000 9130000 9130000

2017A 2018A 2019A 2020A 2021A

Return on Assets 23.2% 21.4% 18.7% 18.6% 12.7%
Return on Capital Employed 41.3% 40.8% 36.0% 25.6% 23.8%
Return on Equity 34.2% 30.9% 26.2% 25.2% 18.9%

2017A 2018A 2019A 2020A 2021A

EBITDA Margin 16.5% 17.7% 16.8% 16.4% 15.0%
Operating Profit Margin 14.8% 15.9% 15.0% 13.5% 12.7%
Net Profit Margin 11.4% 11.2% 10.2% 12.5% 9.5%
 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E
28% 28% 28% 26% 24%

2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E

6544116 7307352 8148603 8327608 8499466
13% 12% 12% 2% 2%

2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E

136800 150480 168538 192133 222874
-5% 10% 12% 14% 16%

=1-C18
=1-C19
=D19-C20
=D20-C21
=D21-C22
=D22-C23
=D23-C24
=D24-C25

2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E

68% 68% 68% 68% 68%
9% 11% 10% 1% 1%

2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E

4766 5400 6285 6505 6289
7% 13% 16% 3% -3%
Q2FY21 Q3FY21 Q4FY21
69.9% 68.7% 69.4%

Q2FY21 Q3FY21 Q4FY21

15.0% 16.5% 14.8%

Q2FY21 Q3FY21 Q4FY21

10.0% 10.3% 10.1%

2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E

2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E

2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E

2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E

2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E

2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E

2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E

2100000 2100000 2100000 2100000 2100000
2100000 2100000 2100000 2100000 2100000
2700000 2700000 2700000 2700000 2700000
800000 800000 800000 800000 800000
800000 800000 800000 800000 800000
800000 1200000 1400000 1400000 1400000
150000 150000 150000 150000 150000
80000 80000 80000 80000 80000
9530000 9930000 10130000 10130000 10130000

2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E

16.7% 16.6% 16.6% 15.4% 14.7%
28.4% 28.3% 28.2% 25.8% 24.4%
22.4% 22.1% 22.0% 20.0% 18.9%

2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E

17.5% 17.4% 17.2% 17.1% 17.3%
14.9% 14.8% 14.7% 14.4% 14.6%
11.1% 11.0% 10.9% 10.8% 10.9%
 ROCE(HISTORICAL) RO
29% 45%
28% 40%

27% 35%

26% 30%
25%
25%
20%
24%
15%
23%
10%
22% 5%
21% 0%
2017A 2018A 2019A 2020A 2021A 2017A 2018A 2019A 20

DOMESTIC SALES
9000000

8000000

7000000

6000000

5000000

4000000

3000000

2000000

1000000

0
2017A 2018A 2019A 2020A 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E

Values(units) growth

COGS
72%
70%
68%
66%
 COGS
72%
70%
68%
66%
64%
62%
60%
58%
56%
2017A 2018A 2019A 2020A 2021A 2022A 2023A 2024A 2025A 2026A

% of sales Absolute Growth

GROSS PROFIT MARGIN

45%
40% 39%
37% 36% 37% 36%
35% 34% 34%
31% 32%
30% 29%

25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
2017A 2018A 2019A 2020A 2021A

HMCL Industry

Net Profit Margin

14%
13%
12% 11% 11%
10% 10% 10%
10% 9% 10% 9%
9%
8%

6%

4%

2%

0%
2017A 2018A 2019A 2020A 2021A

HMCL Industry
 4%

2%

0%
2017A 2018A 2019A 2020A 2021A

HMCL Industry

PROFITABILITY RATIOS
20.0%

18.0%

16.0%

14.0%

12.0%

10.0%

8.0%

6.0%

4.0%

2.0%

0.0%
2017A 2018A 2019A 2020A 2021A 2022A 2023A 2024A 2025A 2026A

EBITDA Margin Operating Profit Margin Net Profit Margin

Segment wise domestic market share

100%

90%

80%

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%
FY 11 FY 12 FY 13 FY 14 FY 15 FY 16 FY 17 FY 18 FY 19 FY 20 FY 21

Motorcycles Scooters Mopeds

20%

10%

0%
FY 11 FY 12 FY 13 FY 14 FY 15 FY 16 FY 17 FY 18 FY 19 FY 20 FY 21

Motorcycles Scooters Mopeds

Shareholding Pattern
120.00%

100.00%

80.00%

60.00%

40.00%

20.00%

0.00%
Q3FY20 Q4FY20 Q1FY21 Q2FY21 Q3FY21 QFY21

Promoter & Promoter group FIIs DIIs Public

Cost Behaviour
100.0%

90.0%

80.0%

70.0%

60.0%

50.0%

40.0%

30.0%
80.0%

70.0%

60.0%

50.0%

40.0%

30.0%

20.0%

10.0%

0.0%
2017A 2018A 2019A 2020A 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E

Cost of Goods Operating Expenses Non Operating Expenses Row 66

Sales of Ather Energy

3500

3000

2500

2000

1500

1000

500

0
2019 2020

Sales in 2020
7,000,000
6,220,000

6,000,000

5,000,000

4,000,000

3,000,000
2,078,136
1,869,220
2,000,000

1,000,000
180,000
0
Bajaj Hero

Domestic sales Exports

 1,869,220
2,000,000

1,000,000
180,000
0
Bajaj Hero

Domestic sales Exports

Fall in 2W EV sales
154000

152000

150000

148000

146000

144000

142000

140000

138000
2020A 2021A

CSR Spend(in crores)

₹ 140.00

₹ 120.00

₹ 100.00

₹ 80.00

₹ 60.00

₹ 40.00

₹ 20.00

₹-
FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20

Amount(in crores)
 10 0%

ROCE(PROJECTED)
45% 8 0%

40%
35%
71%
30% 6 0%

25%
100%
20%
15%
4 0%

10%
5%
2 0%

0%
2017A 2018A 2019A 2020A 2021A 2022A 2023A 2024A 2025A 2026A

0%

COGS
Revenue
EXPORTS
250000

200000

150000

100000

50000

0
024E 2025E 2026E 2017A 2018A 2019A 2020A 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E

Values(units) growth

WORKING CAPITAL

7000
6000
5000
 WORKING CAPITAL

7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
024A 2025A 2026A 2017A 2018A 2019A 2020A 2021A 2022A 2023A 2024A 2025A 2026A

Working Capital Growth Rate

EBIDTA MARGIN
25%

36% 21%
20% 20% 20%
20% 19%
18%
29% 16% 17% 16%
15%
15%

10%

5%

0%
2021A 2017A 2018A 2019A 2020A 2021A

HMCL Industry

RETURN RATIOS

45.0%

10% 40.0%
9%
35.0%

30.0%

25.0%

20.0%

15.0%
2021A
10.0%

5.0%

0.0%
2017A 2018A 2019A 2020A 2021A 2022A 2023A 2024A 202
 20.0%

15.0%
2021A
10.0%

5.0%

0.0%
2017A 2018A 2019A 2020A 2021A 2022A 2023A 2024A 202

Return on Assets Return on Capital Employed Return on Equity

24A 2025A 2026A

Margin

Risk Factor
Dependence on monsoon

10

Increase in interest rate Covid 19 outbreak

5

Increase in fuel prices Increase in raw material price

19 FY 20 FY 21
Adherence to regulatory norms
 Increase in fuel prices Increase in raw material price

19 FY 20 FY 21
Adherence to regulatory norms

Working Capital Cycle

100

80

60

40

20

0
FY 15 FY 16 FY 17 FY 18 F

-20

-40

Q3FY21 QFY21 -60

lic debtor days creditor days inventory

Growth Trend
40

30

20

10

0
FY 11 FY 12 FY 13 FY 14 FY 15 FY 16 FY 17
 30

20

10

0
FY 11 FY 12 FY 13 FY 14 FY 15 FY 16 FY 17

-10

-20

-30
2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E
Domestic Exports
penses Row 66

Sales of 2W EVs
160000

140000

120000

100000

80000

60000

40000

20000

0
2016A 2017A 2018A 2019A 2020A 2021A

Market Share
37.1%
35.7%

9.9%
7.2%

Motorcycles Scooters

2020A 2021A
 7.2%

Motorcycles Scooters

2020A 2021A

Shareholding Pattern

120.00%

100.00%

80.00%

60.00%

40.00%
1A

20.00%

0.00%
Q3FY20 Q4FY20 Q1FY21 Q2FY21

Promoter & Promoter group FIIs DIIs Pu

FY20
 CONSOLIDATED COST BRIDGE

71%

0%

10%
6%
3%
2% 0%
9%

PAT
Other Ex...
COGS

Employee...

Deprecia...

Finance C...
Tax
Revenue

16000.00

14000.00

12000.00

10000.00

8000.00

6000.00

2024E 2025E 2026E 4000.00

2000.00

0.00
6/1/2016 12/1/2016 6/1/2017 12/1/2017 6/1/2018 12/1/2018 6/1/2019 12/1/2019 6/1

NIFTY Adj Close HMCL Adj Close

 2000.00

0.00
6/1/2016 12/1/2016 6/1/2017 12/1/2017 6/1/2018 12/1/2018 6/1/2019 12/1/2019 6/1

NIFTY Adj Close HMCL Adj Close

HERO and NIFTY Rebased to 100

200%
3A 2024A 2025A 2026A
180%
wth Rate
160%

140%

120%

100%

80%
20% 20%
60%
6%
15% 40%

20%

0%
Jun-16 Oct-16 Feb-17 Jun-17 Oct-17 Feb-18 Jun-18 Oct-18 Feb-19 Jun-19 Oct-19

Hero Motocorp NIFTY

2020A 2021A

Price of Li-ion Battery/KwH

$300.00

$250.00

$200.00

$150.00

$100.00

$50.00

$-
2014A 2019A 2020A
2023A 2024A 2025A 2026A
 $150.00

$100.00

$50.00

$-
2014A 2019A 2020A
2023A 2024A 2025A 2026A

ed Return on Equity

Covid 19 outbreak

Increase in raw material prices

 Increase in raw material prices

Working Capital Cycle

FY 18 FY 19 FY 20 FY 21

creditor days inventory days WC days

Growth Trend

FY 15 FY 16 FY 17 FY 18 FY 19 FY 20 FY 21
FY 15 FY 16 FY 17 FY 18 FY 19 FY 20 FY 21

Domestic Exports
Shareholding Pattern

Q1FY21 Q2FY21 Q3FY21 QFY21

& Promoter group FIIs DIIs Public

 0%
9%
PAT
Finance C...

1/2018 6/1/2019 12/1/2019 6/1/2020 12/1/2020

HMCL Adj Close

1/2018 6/1/2019 12/1/2019 6/1/2020 12/1/2020

HMCL Adj Close

NIFTY Rebased to 100

18 Oct-18 Feb-19 Jun-19 Oct-19 Feb-20 Jun-20 Oct-20 Feb-21

NIFTY

ry/KwH

2020A
2020A
 Domestic Market Share 2017A 2018A 2019A 2020A 2021A
36.8% 36.4% 35.9% 35.7% 37.1%

Increase in Market share 2020A 2021A business description

Motorcycles 35.7% 37.1%
Scooters 7.2% 9.9%

2017A 2018A 2019A 2020A 2021A

Sales 6,478,000 7,360,000 7,610,000 6,220,000 5,800,000

Part of Product Mix 2020A 2021A for ivestment thesis

Premium motorcycles 0.8% 4%
Growth of EV
2016A 2017A 2018A 2019A 2020A
No of Units 22000 27400 54800 124640 152000
% growth 24.5% 100.0% 127.4% 22.0%
CAGR
data from SMEV

Ather Energy
Year 2020 January February March April May
Sales of Ather Energy 285 369 294 4 92
Total Sales 2803 2128 2627 68 343
% 10% 17% 11% 6% 27%
Source: Autocar Professional

Prices of Li-ion Batteries/KwH

2014A 2019A 2020A
Price $ 280.00 $ 120.00 $ 110.00
% change -57% -8%

Particulars 2018A 2019A 2020A 2021A 2022E

Revenue ₹ 33,624 ₹ 34,659 ₹ 29,986 ₹ 31,517 ₹ 36,002
Growth 7% 3% -13% 5% 14%
EBITDA ₹ 5,848 ₹ 5,705 ₹ 4,791 ₹ 4,657 ₹ 6,150
Margin 17% 16% 16% 15% 17%
PAT ₹ 3,722 ₹ 3,466 ₹ 3,660 ₹ 2,936 ₹ 3,884
Growth 5% -7% 6% -20% 32%
EPS ₹ 186 ₹ 174 ₹ 183 ₹ 147 ₹ 194
RoE 31% 26% 25% 19% 22%
RoCE 41% 36% 26% 24% 28%

Particulars 2018A 2019A 2020A 2021A 2022E

EBITDA Margin 17.7% 16.8% 16.4% 15.0% 17.5%
Operating Profit (EBIT) Margi 15.9% 15.0% 13.5% 12.7% 14.9%
Net Profit (PAT) Margin 11.2% 10.2% 12.5% 9.5% 11.1%
Return on Assets 21.4% 18.7% 18.6% 12.7% 16.7%
Return on Total Capital 40.0% 35.9% 25.6% 23.9% 28.5%
Return on Capital Employed 40.8% 36.0% 25.6% 23.8% 28.4%
Return on Invested Capital 30.5% 25.9% 21.7% 18.9% 24.0%
Return on Equity 30.9% 26.2% 25.2% 18.9% 22.4%

Bajaj Hero
Domestic sales 2,078,136 6,220,000
Exports 1,869,220 180,000

Shareholding Pattern Q3FY20 Q4FY20 Q1FY21 Q2FY21 Q3FY21

Promoter & Promoter group 34.63% 34.63% 34.77% 34.76% 34.76%
FIIs 35.29% 34.27% 32.71% 33.29% 35.89%
DIIs 19.56% 19.89% 21.72% 22.85% 19.98%
Public 10.52% 11.21% 10.80% 9.10% 9.37%

CSR Spend Last 4 years

Year Amount(in crores)
FY17 ₹ 85.14
FY18 ₹ 84.31
FY19 ₹ 93.72
FY20 ₹ 130.61
 for ivestment thesis

business description

2021A
143837
-5.4%
37%

June July August SeptemberOctober November December Total

157 114 243 247 278 359 530 2972
1298 1281 1846 2410 2497 3608 4689 25598
12% 9% 13% 10% 11% 10% 11% 12%

Year
No of units

2019
2020

2023E 2024E
₹ 39,786 ₹ 43,927
11% 10%
₹ 6,744 ₹ 7,373
17% 17%
₹ 4,271 ₹ 4,690
10% 10%
₹ 214 ₹ 235
22% 22%
 28% 28%

2023E 2024E
17.4% 17.2%
14.8% 14.7%
11.0% 10.9%
16.6% 16.6%
28.2% 28.0%
28.3% 28.2%
23.9% 23.8%
22.1% 22.0%

QFY21
34.76%
37.19%
18.68%
9.37%
 2019 Y-O-Y Growth
2290 30%

2019 2020
2972 2290
No of units
2290
2972
Growth trend Domestic Exports
FY 11 25.6 34.3
FY 12 13.9 29
FY 13 2.9 -0.9
FY 14 6.5 7.3
FY 15 7.9 17.9
FY 16 1 3
FY 17 6.9 -5.9
FY 18 14.8 20.3
FY 19 4.9 16.5
FY 20 -17.8 7.3
FY 21 -13.2 -6.9

Source : Crisil

Segment Wise change in domestic Market share

Motorcycles Scooters Mopeds
FY 11 77% 17% 6%
FY 12 75% 19% 6%
FY 13 73% 21% 6%
FY 14 71% 24% 5%
FY 15 67% 28% 5%
FY 16 65% 31% 4%
FY 17 63% 32% 5%
FY 18 62% 33% 4%
FY 19 64% 32% 4%
FY 20 64% 32% 4%
FY 21 66% 30% 4%

Working Capital Cycle trend

debtor days creditor dainventory WC days
FY 15 15 51 20 -16
FY 16 14 53 16 -23
FY 17 18 61 18 -25
FY 18 20 65 17 -28
FY 19 30 62 19 -13
FY 20 23 62 21 -18
FY 21 25 90 26 -39

Shareholding Pattern Q3FY20 Q4FY20 Q1FY21 Q2FY21 Q3FY21 QFY21

Promoter & Promoter 34.63% 34.63% 34.77% 34.76% 34.76% 34.76%
FIIs 35.29% 34.27% 32.71% 33.29% 35.89% 37.19%
DIIs 19.56% 19.89% 21.72% 22.85% 19.98% 18.68%
Public 10.52% 11.21% 10.80% 9.10% 9.37% 9.37%
Total 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
company filings

DCF Visualized 2017A 2018A 2019A 2020A 2021E 2022E 2023E

Cost of Goods 60.7% 65.1% 67.6% 66.1% 69.0% 66.8% 66.8%
Gross Margin 39.3% 34.9% 32.4% 33.9% 31.0% 33.2% 33.2%
Operating Expenses 23.1% 17.5% 15.9% 17.9% 16.2% 16.2% 16.3%
EBITDA Margin 16.2% 17.4% 16.5% 16.0% 14.8% 17.1% 16.9%
Depreciation 1.6% 1.7% 1.8% 2.8% 2.3% 2.6% 2.5%
Operating (EBIT) Margi 14.6% 15.7% 14.7% 13.2% 12.5% 14.5% 14.4%
Non Operating Expense 4.3% 4.8% 4.8% 3.3% 3.0% 3.7% 3.7%
PAT Margin 10.3% 10.9% 9.8% 9.8% 9.5% 10.8% 10.7%
Revenue 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

Cost Behaviour 2017A 2018A 2019A 2020A 2021E 2022E 2023E

Cost of Goods 60.7% 65.1% 67.6% 66.1% 69.0% 66.8% 66.8%
Operating Expenses 24.7% 19.2% 17.7% 20.7% 18.5% 18.7% 18.8%
Non Operating Expense 4.3% 4.8% 4.8% 3.3% 3.0% 3.7% 3.7%

Margin Behaviour 2017A 2018A 2019A 2020A 2021E 2022E 2023E

Gross Margin 39.3% 34.9% 32.4% 33.9% 31.0% 33.2% 33.2%
EBITDA Margin 16.2% 17.4% 16.5% 16.0% 14.8% 17.1% 16.9%
Operating (EBIT) Margi 14.6% 15.7% 14.7% 13.2% 12.5% 14.5% 14.4%
PAT Margin 10.3% 10.9% 9.8% 9.8% 9.5% 10.8% 10.7%

S.No. Name CMP Rs. EPS 12M Rs.Sales Rs.Cr. B.V. Rs. EV Rs.Cr. EBIT 12M Rs.Cr.

1 Eicher Motors 2604.05 49.28 8720.35 418.46 65566.93 1814.84
2 Hero Motocor 2991.3 146.05 30959.19 771.63 59939.24 3895.73
3 TVS Motor Co. 650.35 12.51 19420.82 80.55 38839.21 1712.48

Risk Factor score Economy/Ent

Dependence on mon 8 Chart Title ry
Executive
Premium
Scooters
 Economy/Ent
Chart Title ry
Executive
Covid 19 outbreak 9 Premium
Increase in raw mater 8.5 Scooters
Adherence to regulat 8
Increase in fuel price 6
Increase in interest r 8

Hero's Product Mix

Economy/Entry 27.3%
Executive 58.2%
Premium 5.5%
Scooters 9%

Entry Level Motorcycles market share

Hero 64%
TVS 3%
Bajaj 33%

Segment Wise market share

FY 12 FY 13 FY 14 FY 15 FY 16 FY 17 FY 18
Economy/Entry 18.5 19.3 18.1 19.4 22.7 23.2 25.1
Executive 64.6 64.4 65.1 61.8 56.4 54 51.9
Premium 16.9 16.3 16.8 18.8 20.9 22.8 22.9

Cost Bridge 2021A %Tage Lower Upper

Revenue ₹ 31,517 100.0% 0.0% 100.0%
COGS ₹ 21,744 69.0% 31.0% 69.0%
Gross Margin ₹ 9,773 31.0% 69.0% 31.0%
Employee Benefit Expe ₹ 1,951 6.2% 93.8% 6.2%
Other Expenses ₹ 3,165 10.0% 90.0% 10.0%
EBITDA ₹ 4,657 14.8% 85.2% 14.8%
Depreciation ₹ 715 2.3% 97.7% 2.3%
EBIT ₹ 3,942 12.5% 87.5% 12.5%
Finance Costs ₹ 46 0.1% 99.9% 0.1%
Profit before Tax ₹ 3,896 12.4% 87.6% 12.4%
Exceptional Items ₹ -47 -0.1% 100.1% -0.1%
Tax ₹ 913 2.9% 97.1% 2.9%
PAT ₹ 3,029 9.6% 90.4% 9.6%
Cash Cycle
2017A -12
2018A -11
2019A 6
2020A -4
2021E -5
 2024E 2025E 2026E
66.8% 66.8% 66.8%
33.2% 33.2% 33.2%
16.5% 16.6% 16.3%
16.8% 16.7% 16.9%
2.4% 2.6% 2.7%
14.3% 14.1% 14.2%
3.7% 3.6% 3.6%
10.7% 10.5% 10.6%
100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

2024E 2025E 2026E

66.8% 66.8% 66.8%
18.9% 19.1% 19.0%
3.7% 3.6% 3.6%

2024E 2025E 2026E

33.2% 33.2% 33.2%
16.8% 16.7% 16.9%
14.3% 14.1% 14.2%
10.7% 10.5% 10.6%

P/E CMP / BV CMP / SaleCMP / FCF EV / EBITD EV / EBIT ROA 12M %ROE % ROIC %
52.85 6.22 8.16 69.21 28.94 36.13 12.09 12.58 15.34
20.48 3.88 1.93 22.92 13 15.39 18.51 19.57 25.83
51.44 8.07 1.59 -38.12 17.05 22.68 4.66 16.9 31.53

Economy/Ent
Chart Title ry
Executive
Premium
Scooters
 Economy/Ent
Chart Title ry
Executive
Premium
Scooters

FY 19 FY 20 FY 21
28.6 29.3 27.4
47.8 48.6 51.9
23.6 22.1 20.7
 NIFTY50 HMCL
Date Adj Close Return Date Adj Close Return
6/1/2016 8287.75 6/1/2016 2724.62
7/1/2016 8638.50 4.23% 7/1/2016 2745.97 0.78%
8/1/2016 8786.20 1.71% 8/1/2016 3035.90 10.56%
9/1/2016 8611.15 -1.99% 9/1/2016 2926.47 -3.60%
10/1/2016 8638.00 0.31% 10/1/2016 2899.29 -0.93%
11/1/2016 8224.50 -4.79% 11/1/2016 2738.57 -5.54%
12/1/2016 8185.80 -0.47% 12/1/2016 2632.70 -3.87%
1/1/2017 8561.30 4.59% 1/1/2017 2744.02 4.23%
2/1/2017 8879.60 3.72% 2/1/2017 2714.40 -1.08%
3/1/2017 9173.75 3.31% 3/1/2017 2786.92 2.67%
4/1/2017 9304.05 1.42% 4/1/2017 2917.71 4.69%
5/1/2017 9621.25 3.41% 5/1/2017 3292.99 12.86%
6/1/2017 9520.90 -1.04% 6/1/2017 3254.22 -1.18%
7/1/2017 10077.10 5.84% 7/1/2017 3240.29 -0.43%
8/1/2017 9917.90 -1.58% 8/1/2017 3541.07 9.28%
9/1/2017 9788.60 -1.30% 9/1/2017 3345.59 -5.52%
10/1/2017 10335.30 5.59% 10/1/2017 3412.37 2.00%
11/1/2017 10226.55 -1.05% 11/1/2017 3220.70 -5.62%
12/1/2017 10530.70 2.97% 12/1/2017 3354.98 4.17%
1/1/2018 11027.70 4.72% 1/1/2018 3271.93 -2.48%
2/1/2018 10492.85 -4.85% 2/1/2018 3187.95 -2.57%
3/1/2018 10113.70 -3.61% 3/1/2018 3188.95 0.03%
4/1/2018 10739.35 6.19% 4/1/2018 3359.47 5.35%
5/1/2018 10736.15 -0.03% 5/1/2018 3190.84 -5.02%
6/1/2018 10714.30 -0.20% 6/1/2018 3126.57 -2.01%
7/1/2018 11356.50 5.99% 7/1/2018 2965.40 -5.15%
8/1/2018 11680.50 2.85% 8/1/2018 2995.76 1.02%
9/1/2018 10930.45 -6.42% 9/1/2018 2700.63 -9.85%
10/1/2018 10386.60 -4.98% 10/1/2018 2543.28 -5.83%
11/1/2018 10876.75 4.72% 11/1/2018 2812.91 10.60%
12/1/2018 10862.55 -0.13% 12/1/2018 2858.07 1.61%
1/1/2019 10830.95 -0.29% 1/1/2019 2406.65 -15.79%
2/1/2019 10792.50 -0.36% 2/1/2019 2419.68 0.54%
3/1/2019 11623.90 7.70% 3/1/2019 2395.50 -1.00%
4/1/2019 11748.15 1.07% 4/1/2019 2356.75 -1.62%
5/1/2019 11922.80 1.49% 5/1/2019 2514.75 6.70%
6/1/2019 11788.85 -1.12% 6/1/2019 2422.10 -3.68%
7/1/2019 11118.00 -5.69% 7/1/2019 2210.62 -8.73%
8/1/2019 11023.25 -0.85% 8/1/2019 2475.09 11.96%
9/1/2019 11474.45 4.09% 9/1/2019 2602.78 5.16%
10/1/2019 11877.45 3.51% 10/1/2019 2602.26 -0.02%
11/1/2019 12056.05 1.50% 11/1/2019 2341.81 -10.01%
12/1/2019 12168.45 0.93% 12/1/2019 2350.95 0.39%
1/1/2020 11962.10 -1.70% 1/1/2020 2407.53 2.41%
2/1/2020 11201.75 -6.36% 2/1/2020 1974.40 -17.99%
3/1/2020 8597.75 -23.25% 3/1/2020 1579.84 -19.98%
4/1/2020 9859.90 14.68% 4/1/2020 2144.16 35.72%
5/1/2020 9580.30 -2.84% 5/1/2020 2336.29 8.96%
6/1/2020 10302.10 7.53% 6/1/2020 2520.46 7.88%
7/1/2020 11073.45 7.49% 7/1/2020 2648.66 5.09%
8/1/2020 11387.50 2.84% 8/1/2020 3001.77 13.33%
9/1/2020 11247.55 -1.23% 9/1/2020 3142.82 4.70%
10/1/2020 11642.40 3.51% 10/1/2020 2795.82 -11.04%
11/1/2020 12968.95 11.39% 11/1/2020 3104.43 11.04%
12/1/2020 13981.75 7.81% 12/1/2020 3105.58 0.04%
1/1/2021 13634.60 -2.48% 1/1/2021 3251.42 4.70%
2/1/2021 14529.15 6.56% 2/1/2021 3219.42 -0.98%
3/1/2021 14690.70 1.11% 3/1/2021 2913.60 -9.50%
4/1/2021 14631.10 -0.41% 4/1/2021 2819.15 -3.24%
5/1/2021 15108.10 3.26% 5/1/2021 2906.95 3.11%
 NIFTY HMCL
6/1/2016
7/1/2016 4.23% 0.78%
8/1/2016 1.71% 10.56%
9/1/2016 -1.99% -3.60% beta 0.96
10/1/2016 0.31% -0.93% Risk free rate 6.26% 10year bond
11/1/2016 -4.79% -5.54% ERP 6.50%
12/1/2016 -0.47% -3.87% Expected rate 12.5%
1/1/2017 4.59% 4.23% Mkt ret 12.76% =RRI(COUNTA(A3:A62)/12,B3,B62)
2/1/2017 3.72% -1.08% 6.50%
3/1/2017 3.31% 2.67% 0.1276
4/1/2017 1.42% 4.69%
5/1/2017 3.41% 12.86% Terminal Growth Rate Weights
6/1/2017 -1.04% -1.18% Hero Motocorp 8.0% 32.5%
7/1/2017 5.84% -0.43% 2W Industry 7.0% 27.5%
8/1/2017 -1.58% 9.28% Economy 6.5% 22.5%
9/1/2017 -1.30% -5.52% Population 1.0% 17.5%
10/1/2017 5.59% 2.00% Sum of Weights 100.0%
11/1/2017 -1.05% -5.62% Terminal Growth Rate 6.17%
12/1/2017 2.97% 4.17% g = (1 - payout rate)*ROE
1/1/2018 4.72% -2.48%
2/1/2018 -4.85% -2.57%
3/1/2018 -3.61% 0.03%
4/1/2018 6.19% 5.35%
5/1/2018 -0.03% -5.02%
6/1/2018 -0.20% -2.01%
7/1/2018 5.99% -5.15%
8/1/2018 2.85% 1.02%
9/1/2018 -6.42% -9.85%
10/1/2018 -4.98% -5.83%
11/1/2018 4.72% 10.60%
12/1/2018 -0.13% 1.61%
1/1/2019 -0.29% -15.79%
2/1/2019 -0.36% 0.54%
3/1/2019 7.70% -1.00%
4/1/2019 1.07% -1.62%
5/1/2019 1.49% 6.70%
6/1/2019 -1.12% -3.68%
7/1/2019 -5.69% -8.73%
8/1/2019 -0.85% 11.96%
9/1/2019 4.09% 5.16%
10/1/2019 3.51% -0.02%
11/1/2019 1.50% -10.01%
12/1/2019 0.93% 0.39%
1/1/2020 -1.70% 2.41%
2/1/2020 -6.36% -17.99%
3/1/2020 -23.25% -19.98%
4/1/2020 14.68% 35.72%
5/1/2020 -2.84% 8.96%
6/1/2020 7.53% 7.88%
7/1/2020 7.49% 5.09%
8/1/2020 2.84% 13.33%
9/1/2020 -1.23% 4.70%
10/1/2020 3.51% -11.04%
11/1/2020 11.39% 11.04%
12/1/2020 7.81% 0.04%
1/1/2021 -2.48% 4.70%
2/1/2021 6.56% -0.98%
3/1/2021 1.11% -9.50%
4/1/2021 -0.41% -3.24%
5/1/2021 3.26% 3.11%
 date HMCL NIFTY date Hero Motocor
6/1/2016 2724.62 8287.75 Jun-16 100%
7/1/2016 2745.97 8638.50 Jul-16 101%
8/1/2016 3035.90 8786.20 Aug-16 111%
9/1/2016 2926.47 8611.15 Sep-16 107%
10/1/2016 2899.29 8638.00 Oct-16 106%
11/1/2016 2738.57 8224.50 Nov-16 101%
12/1/2016 2632.70 8185.80 Dec-16 97%
1/1/2017 2744.02 8561.30 Jan-17 101%
3:A62)/12,B3,B62) 2/1/2017 2714.40 8879.60 Feb-17 100%
3/1/2017 2786.92 9173.75 Mar-17 102%
4/1/2017 2917.71 9304.05 Apr-17 107%
5/1/2017 3292.99 9621.25 May-17 121%
6/1/2017 3254.22 9520.90 Jun-17 119%
7/1/2017 3240.29 10077.10 Jul-17 119%
8/1/2017 3541.07 9917.90 Aug-17 130%
9/1/2017 3345.59 9788.60 Sep-17 123%
10/1/2017 3412.37 10335.30 Oct-17 125%
11/1/2017 3220.70 10226.55 Nov-17 118%
12/1/2017 3354.98 10530.70 Dec-17 123%
1/1/2018 3271.93 11027.70 Jan-18 120%
2/1/2018 3187.95 10492.85 Feb-18 117%
3/1/2018 3188.95 10113.70 Mar-18 117%
4/1/2018 3359.47 10739.35 Apr-18 123%
5/1/2018 3190.84 10736.15 May-18 117%
6/1/2018 3126.57 10714.30 Jun-18 115%
7/1/2018 2965.40 11356.50 Jul-18 109%
8/1/2018 2995.76 11680.50 Aug-18 110%
9/1/2018 2700.63 10930.45 Sep-18 99%
10/1/2018 2543.28 10386.60 Oct-18 93%
11/1/2018 2812.91 10876.75 Nov-18 103%
12/1/2018 2858.07 10862.55 Dec-18 105%
1/1/2019 2406.65 10830.95 Jan-19 88%
2/1/2019 2419.68 10792.50 Feb-19 89%
3/1/2019 2395.50 11623.90 Mar-19 88%
4/1/2019 2356.75 11748.15 Apr-19 86%
5/1/2019 2514.75 11922.80 May-19 92%
6/1/2019 2422.10 11788.85 Jun-19 89%
7/1/2019 2210.62 11118.00 Jul-19 81%
8/1/2019 2475.09 11023.25 Aug-19 91%
9/1/2019 2602.78 11474.45 Sep-19 96%
10/1/2019 2602.26 11877.45 Oct-19 96%
11/1/2019 2341.81 12056.05 Nov-19 86%
12/1/2019 2350.95 12168.45 Dec-19 86%
1/1/2020 2407.53 11962.10 Jan-20 88%
2/1/2020 1974.40 11201.75 Feb-20 72%
3/1/2020 1579.84 8597.75 Mar-20 58%
4/1/2020 2144.16 9859.90 Apr-20 79%
5/1/2020 2336.29 9580.30 May-20 86%
6/1/2020 2520.46 10302.10 Jun-20 93%
7/1/2020 2648.66 11073.45 Jul-20 97%
8/1/2020 3001.77 11387.50 Aug-20 110%
9/1/2020 3142.82 11247.55 Sep-20 115%
10/1/2020 2795.82 11642.40 Oct-20 103%
11/1/2020 3104.43 12968.95 Nov-20 114%
12/1/2020 3105.58 13981.75 Dec-20 114%
1/1/2021 3251.42 13634.60 Jan-21 119%
2/1/2021 3219.42 14529.15 Feb-21 118%
3/1/2021 2913.60 14690.70 Mar-21 107%
4/1/2021 2819.15 14631.10 Apr-21 103%
5/1/2021 2906.95 15108.10 May-21 107%
NIFTY
100%
104%
106%
104%
104%
99%
99%
103%
107%
111%
112%
116%
115%
122%
120%
118%
125%
123%
127%
133%
127%
122%
130%
130%
129%
137%
141%
132%
125%
131%
131%
131%
130%
140%
142%
144%
142%
134%
133%
138%
143%
145%
147%
144%
135%
104%
119%
116%
124%
134%
137%
136%
140%
156%
169%
165%
175%
177%
177%
182%
Date NIFTY Adj CHMCL Adj Close
6/1/2016 8287.75 2724.62
7/1/2016 8638.50 2745.97
8/1/2016 8786.20 3035.90
9/1/2016 8611.15 2926.47
10/1/2016 8638.00 2899.29
11/1/2016 8224.50 2738.57
12/1/2016 8185.80 2632.70
1/1/2017 8561.30 2744.02
2/1/2017 8879.60 2714.40
3/1/2017 9173.75 2786.92
4/1/2017 9304.05 2917.71
5/1/2017 9621.25 3292.99
6/1/2017 9520.90 3254.22
7/1/2017 10077.10 3240.29
8/1/2017 9917.90 3541.07
9/1/2017 9788.60 3345.59
10/1/2017 10335.30 3412.37
11/1/2017 10226.55 3220.70
12/1/2017 10530.70 3354.98
1/1/2018 11027.70 3271.93
2/1/2018 10492.85 3187.95
3/1/2018 10113.70 3188.95
4/1/2018 10739.35 3359.47
5/1/2018 10736.15 3190.84
6/1/2018 10714.30 3126.57
7/1/2018 11356.50 2965.40
8/1/2018 11680.50 2995.76
9/1/2018 10930.45 2700.63
10/1/2018 10386.60 2543.28
11/1/2018 10876.75 2812.91
12/1/2018 10862.55 2858.07
1/1/2019 10830.95 2406.65
2/1/2019 10792.50 2419.68
3/1/2019 11623.90 2395.50
4/1/2019 11748.15 2356.75
5/1/2019 11922.80 2514.75
6/1/2019 11788.85 2422.10
7/1/2019 11118.00 2210.62
8/1/2019 11023.25 2475.09
9/1/2019 11474.45 2602.78
10/1/2019 11877.45 2602.26
11/1/2019 12056.05 2341.81
12/1/2019 12168.45 2350.95
1/1/2020 11962.10 2407.53
2/1/2020 11201.75 1974.40
3/1/2020 8597.75 1579.84
4/1/2020 9859.90 2144.16
5/1/2020 9580.30 2336.29
6/1/2020 10302.10 2520.46
7/1/2020 11073.45 2648.66
8/1/2020 11387.50 3001.77
9/1/2020 11247.55 3142.82
10/1/2020 11642.40 2795.82
11/1/2020 12968.95 3104.43
12/1/2020 13981.75 3105.58
1/1/2021 13634.60 3251.42
2/1/2021 14529.15 3219.42
3/1/2021 14690.70 2913.60
4/1/2021 14631.10 2819.15
5/1/2021 15108.10 2906.95
Growth trend Domestic Exports
FY 11 25.6 34.3
FY 12 13.9 29
FY 13 2.9 -0.9
FY 14 6.5 7.3
FY 15 7.9 17.9
FY 16 1 3
FY 17 6.9 -5.9
FY 18 14.8 20.3
FY 19 4.9 16.5
FY 20 -17.8 7.3
FY 21 -13.2 -6.9

Source : Crisil

Segment Wise change in domestic Market share

Motorcycles Scooters Mopeds
FY 11 77% 17% 6%
FY 12 75% 19% 6%
FY 13 73% 21% 6%
FY 14 71% 24% 5%
FY 15 67% 28% 5%
FY 16 65% 31% 4%
FY 17 63% 32% 5%
FY 18 62% 33% 4%
FY 19 64% 32% 4%
FY 20 64% 32% 4%
FY 21 66% 30% 4%

Working Capital Cycle trend

debtor days creditor dainventory WC days
FY 15 15 51 20 -16
FY 16 14 53 16 -23
FY 17 18 61 18 -25
FY 18 20 65 17 -28
FY 19 30 62 19 -13
FY 20 23 62 21 -18
FY 21 25 90 26 -39

Shareholding Pattern Q3FY20 Q4FY20 Q1FY21 Q2FY21 Q3FY21 QFY21

Promoter & Promoter 34.63% 34.63% 34.77% 34.76% 34.76% 34.76%
FIIs 35.29% 34.27% 32.71% 33.29% 35.89% 37.19%
DIIs 19.56% 19.89% 21.72% 22.85% 19.98% 18.68%
Public 10.52% 11.21% 10.80% 9.10% 9.37% 9.37%
Total 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
company filings

DCF Visualized 2017A 2018A 2019A 2020A 2021E 2022E 2023E

Cost of Goods 60.7% 65.1% 67.6% 66.1% 69.0% 66.8% 66.8%
Gross Margin 39.3% 34.9% 32.4% 33.9% 31.0% 33.2% 33.2%
Operating Expenses 23.1% 17.5% 15.9% 17.9% 16.2% 16.2% 16.3%
EBITDA Margin 16.2% 17.4% 16.5% 16.0% 14.8% 17.1% 16.9%
Depreciation 1.6% 1.7% 1.8% 2.8% 2.3% 2.6% 2.5%
Operating (EBIT) Margi 14.6% 15.7% 14.7% 13.2% 12.5% 14.5% 14.4%
Non Operating Expense 4.3% 4.8% 4.8% 3.3% 3.0% 3.7% 3.7%
PAT Margin 10.3% 10.9% 9.8% 9.8% 9.5% 10.8% 10.7%
Revenue 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

Cost Behaviour 2017A 2018A 2019A 2020A 2021E 2022E 2023E

Cost of Goods 60.7% 65.1% 67.6% 66.1% 69.0% 66.8% 66.8%
Operating Expenses 24.7% 19.2% 17.7% 20.7% 18.5% 18.7% 18.8%
Non Operating Expense 4.3% 4.8% 4.8% 3.3% 3.0% 3.7% 3.7%

Margin Behaviour 2017A 2018A 2019A 2020A 2021E 2022E 2023E

Gross Margin 39.3% 34.9% 32.4% 33.9% 31.0% 33.2% 33.2%
EBITDA Margin 16.2% 17.4% 16.5% 16.0% 14.8% 17.1% 16.9%
Operating (EBIT) Margi 14.6% 15.7% 14.7% 13.2% 12.5% 14.5% 14.4%
PAT Margin 10.3% 10.9% 9.8% 9.8% 9.5% 10.8% 10.7%

S.No. Name CMP Rs. EPS 12M Rs.Sales Rs.Cr. B.V. Rs. EV Rs.Cr. EBIT 12M Rs.Cr.

1 Eicher Motors 2604.05 49.28 8720.35 418.46 65566.93 1814.84
2 Hero Motocor 2991.3 146.05 30959.19 771.63 59939.24 3895.73
3 TVS Motor Co. 650.35 12.51 19420.82 80.55 38839.21 1712.48

Risk Factor score Economy/Ent

Dependence on mon 8 Chart Title ry
Executive
Premium
Scooters
 Economy/Ent
Chart Title ry
Executive
Covid 19 outbreak 9 Premium
Increase in raw mater 8.5 Scooters
Adherence to regulat 8
Increase in fuel price 6
Increase in interest r 8

Hero's Product Mix

Economy/Entry 27.3%
Executive 58.2%
Premium 5.5%
Scooters 9%

Entry Level Motorcycles market share

Hero 64%
TVS 3%
Bajaj 33%

Segment Wise market share

FY 12 FY 13 FY 14 FY 15 FY 16 FY 17 FY 18
Economy/Entry 18.5 19.3 18.1 19.4 22.7 23.2 25.1
Executive 64.6 64.4 65.1 61.8 56.4 54 51.9
Premium 16.9 16.3 16.8 18.8 20.9 22.8 22.9

Cost Bridge 2021A %Tage Lower Upper

Revenue ₹ 31,517 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% Gross Margi
COGS ₹ 21,744 69.0% 31.0% 69.0% EBITDA
Employee Benefit Expe ₹ 1,951 6.2% 24.8% 6.2% EBIT
Other Expenses ₹ 3,165 10.0% 14.8% 10.0% Profit befor
Depreciation ₹ 715 2.3% 12.5% 2.3%
Finance Costs ₹ 46 0.1% 12.4% 0.1%
Exceptional Items ₹ -47 -0.1% 12.5% -0.1%
Tax ₹ 913 2.9% 9.6% 2.9%
PAT ₹ 3,029 9.6% 0.0% 9.6%
Cash Cycle
2017A -12
2018A -11
2019A 6
2020A -4
2021E -5
 2024E 2025E 2026E
66.8% 66.8% 66.8%
33.2% 33.2% 33.2%
16.5% 16.6% 16.3%
16.8% 16.7% 16.9%
2.4% 2.6% 2.7%
14.3% 14.1% 14.2%
3.7% 3.6% 3.6%
10.7% 10.5% 10.6%
100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

2024E 2025E 2026E

66.8% 66.8% 66.8%
18.9% 19.1% 19.0%
3.7% 3.6% 3.6%

2024E 2025E 2026E

33.2% 33.2% 33.2%
16.8% 16.7% 16.9%
14.3% 14.1% 14.2%
10.7% 10.5% 10.6%

P/E CMP / BV CMP / SaleCMP / FCF EV / EBITD EV / EBIT ROA 12M %ROE %

52.85 6.22 8.16 69.21 28.94 36.13 12.09 12.58
20.48 3.88 1.93 22.92 13 15.39 18.51 19.57
51.44 8.07 1.59 -38.12 17.05 22.68 4.66 16.9

Economy/Ent
Chart Title ry
Executive
Premium
Scooters
 Economy/Ent
Chart Title ry
Executive
Premium
Scooters

FY 19 FY 20 FY 21
28.6 29.3 27.4
47.8 48.6 51.9
23.6 22.1 20.7

₹ 9,773 31.0% 31.0% 0.0%

₹ 4,657 14.8% 0.0% -4.7%
₹ 3,942 12.5% 0.0% -10.2%
₹ 3,896 12.4% 0.0% -12.2%

Revenue ₹ 31,517 100% 0% 100%

COGS ₹ 21,744 69% 31% 69%
Gross Margin ₹ 9,773 31% 31% 0%
Employee Benefit E ₹ 1,951 6% 25% 6%
Other Expenses ₹ 3,165 10% 15% -4%
EBITDA ₹ 4,657 15% 0% -19%
Depreciation ₹ 715 2% 13% -21%
EBIT ₹ 3,942 13% 0% -33%
Finance Costs ₹ 46 0% 12% -34%
Exceptional Items ₹ -47 0% 13% -46%
Profit before Tax ₹ 3,896 12% 0% -46%
Tax ₹ 913 3% 10% -49%
PAT ₹ 3,029 10% 0% -58%
ROIC %
15.34
25.83
31.53