Gartner for Supply Chain

From Automation
to Autonomy:
The Supply Chain
2035 Roadmap
 Introduction
Over the next 10 years, businesses will progressively delegate decision-making
authority to technology. Chief supply chain officers (CSCOs) and supply chain
heads of strategy must prepare to respond to the opportunity of hyperautomation
and responsibly manage the implications on the workforce. To corroborate this
hypothesis and help CSCOs establish the right path forward, we collected research
findings across Gartner, with a focus on two key enablers.
1. The evolution of technologies, from emerging to mainstream. The Gartner Hype
Cycle for Supply Chain Strategy, 2020 estimates that technologies such as robotic
process automation (RPA) will reach the Plateau of Productivity in two to five years.
Next, digital supply chain twins, supply chain control tower, blockchain in supply chain
and machine learning (ML) are expected to reach the plateau in five to 10 years. Finally,
AI will need more than 10 years to plateau.
2. The evolution of the workforce, specifically digital natives or Gen Z entering
the workforce. Members of Gen Z are often described as digital natives because
they have been familiar with digital technologies their entire lives. Gen Z, prepared to
challenge the digital status quo, is expected to be the innovator. CSCOs should actively
pursue the opportunity to hire members of Gen Z, and should maximize the effect
these younger employees can have on supply chain digitalization.

To prepare for the next 10 years and beyond, CSCOs

should consider the following three steps as they
put together their strategy and roadmap to the
hyperautomated supply chain of the future.
Figure 1 maps out the path of supply chain autonomy against the potential career
paths of Gen Z.

Figure 1. The Path Toward Supply Chain Autonomy

Automation Augmentation Autonomy

(by 2025) (by 2030) (10+ years)

Technology • RPA, IoT • ML, blockchain, • AI

reach plateau • Augmented digital twin of SC • Human
of productivity intelligence • Responsible AI augmentation

Generation Z or • Gen Z enters • Gen Z becomes • Gen Z becomes

digital natives business managers directors

Source: Gartner Hype Cycle for Supply Chain Strategy, 2020; Hype Cycle for Artificial
Intelligence, 2020; Top 10 Technology Trends for 2020: Human Augmentation

© 2021 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Gartner and Hype Cycle are
2 registered trademarks of Gartner, Inc. and its affiliates in the U.S. CM_GBS_1233038
 Step 1:
Automation by 2025
Over the past 40 years, companies have invested a lot to automate routine administrative
tasks through ERP implementation, and made substantial investments in industrial
automation and robotics to streamline their physical operations. There remains a great
number of tasks and processes that can be further automated, especially across
transactional processes and decision making. RPA is rapidly emerging as a low-hanging
fruit, especially to streamline processes such as procure to pay, order management and
customer claim management. Gartner estimates that more than 70% of commercial
enterprises have dozens of hyperautomation initiatives underway. These initiatives are
too often disparate or siloed, and they are either not aligned to business outcomes or
not coordinated with business objectives across functions.
Over the next five years, CSCOs are expected to roll out more coordinated and business-
impactful RPA initiatives as the technology is maturing and experiencing mainstream
adoption. As members of Gen Z start to be hired, employees’ mindsets toward digitalization
will also expect to mature, preparing the ground for the next level in this model.

Step 2:
Augmentation by 2030
Over the following five years, a range of technologies are expected to reach the
Plateau of Productivity, making hyperautomation capable of automating more complex
tasks and decisions with increasing intelligence. Hyperautomation will help automate
complex tasks and decisions that have typically required human judgment (e.g., selecting
across multiple planning scenarios), significantly expanding human capabilities, and
increasing the accuracy and speed of decision making (e.g., finding insights into
terabytes of real-time data). Companies at this level will employ humans to control
and orchestrate the automated supply chain, leaving technology to do most of the
heavy lifting.
As Gen Z employees start to reach leading positions, the process of adopting
hyperautomation will speed up. As awareness and acceptance for hyperautomation
grow, we expect CSCOs will launch more holistic, end-to-end initiatives clearly tied
to business objectives.

© 2021 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Gartner and Hype Cycle are
3 registered trademarks of Gartner, Inc. and its affiliates in the U.S. CM_GBS_1233038
 Step 3:
Autonomy in 10+ Years
The final destination is supply chain autonomy, when all traditional human low-value
activities in the supply chain will be fully automated. This might happen sometime after
2030, when AI, maturing along with “human augmentation” provides the prospect of
a fully automated supply chain. This supply chain will have minimal direct human
involvement and interference from a traditional work perspective, which will suit the
expectations of digitally native Gen Z employees very well. All of the supply chain
leaders we interviewed agree that, sometime after 2030, a large majority of their supply
chain activities will most likely become fully autonomous and self-healing. However,
they don’t expect a lights-off supply chain, with no people at all. They all agree that
hyperautomation supplies an opportunity to free up people’s time for the value-added
work that only humans can perform.

Redefining supply chain strategy, driving innovation, taking care of customer service
and experience, and controlling AI data and decision making are supply chain tasks
that CSCOs expect humans will be responsible for delivering in the supply chain of
the future.

© 2021 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Gartner and Hype Cycle are
4 registered trademarks of Gartner, Inc. and its affiliates in the U.S. CM_GBS_1233038
About Gartner
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S&P 500. We equip business leaders with indispensable insights, advice and tools to
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every industry and enterprise size.

Supply chain digital transformation:

How Gartner can help
Digital is a key priority for most supply chain leaders, but fewer than half have defined
or plan to implement a supply chain digital transformation roadmap that addresses
both short-term improvements and a strategic long-term vision. Supply chain digital
transformation is proven to drive growth, mitigate risk and optimize costs, but requires
strong alignment between business and supply chain strategy to succeed. Gartner
experts in supply chain digital transformation guide supply chain leaders in designing
roadmaps for the future digital supply chain planning organization. Visit gartner.com
to learn how we enable our 2,500+ supply chain leader clients with digital supply chain
technology insights, advice, data and tools.

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© 2021 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Gartner and Hype Cycle are
registered trademarks of Gartner, Inc. and its affiliates in the U.S. CM_GBS_1233038

© 2021 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Gartner and Hype Cycle are
5 registered trademarks of Gartner, Inc. and its affiliates in the U.S. CM_GBS_1233038