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Reflective Portfolio – Questions

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Reflective Portfolio – Questions

Portfolio Piece 1:

The Effects of Covid-19 on Latin America’s Economy

Just like the rest of the world, Latin America has experienced the effects of Covi-19,

both socially and economically (Fernandes, 2020). Before the pandemic struck, Latin

America's GDP was projected to grow in 2020 at a rate of 1.8%. The growth would have

been a modest recovery from the 0.2% witnessed in 2019. Owing to Covid-19, nonetheless,

the region's economy is anticipated to shrink by about 8.1% in 2021 (Cottani, 2020). Whereas

experts project such recovery in 2021, its expanse is likely to be limited, which leaves the

economic production below the pre-pandemic level at the end of this year. The possibility of

"scarring" and solvency worries further rest on the region's outlook. Whereas there are

progressive possibilities from innovation breakthroughs in vaccines and treatments that

would enable more robust regional performance and global growth. Collaborative

government interventions will be necessary to assess the pandemic's effect on inequality and

poverty in the region.

The COVID-19-centric economic crisis in January 2020 was an unprecedented

worldwide shock to aggregate supply and aggregate demand. The results would have been

relatively worse if it was not for the equally exceptional fiscal and monetary support

strategies that countries implemented to respond to COVID-19. Whereas numerous policy

packages are evident from developed nations, developing markets responded forcefully,

regardless of the remarkably less fiscal and monetary space, and so were international

financial institutions.

Key economic indicators in most economies demonstrate that the worse of the crisis

could be behind and that the global economy is projected to recover in the first quarter of this

year. Nevertheless, the region's economy took a particularly hard hit from the Covid-19 in
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contrast to global or other developing markets. The economic contraction was deeper in 2020

in the region than in most emerging regions such as Africa, the Middle East, Eastern Europe,

and Asia. However, 2021's recovery will be relatively weak and positively expand the income

inequalities across regions.

The pandemic triggered an acute economic contraction in 2020 in the region that

came in the heels of various years of lackluster growth. World Bank's flagship report

projected the region would incur a 5% contraction last year due to the pandemic. The

appearance is uncertain; nevertheless, a semi-recovery in 2021 and 2022 is anticipated:

economic development is expected to resume at a rate of 2.6%, supported by a modest

recovery in investment and private consumption (López-Feldman et al., 2020). There will be

disparities from one nation to the other in the most trying moments and the recovery stage.

Plummeting energy and oil prices will influence commodity-oriented governments. In

contrast, sharp drops in remittances and depreciating demand from the US, China, and other

G7 nations will inflict acute economic pain in other countries. The depreciation in the tourism

industry will, in the meantime, be harmful in the region.

A big part of the population has suffered great hardships. For instance, the latest

estimates of poverty by the World Bank indicate that predicted economic fluctuations may

spark a definitive increase in the poverty rate in the region compared to that of 2019. Most

families already survive with daily incomes and do not have the necessary resources to cope

with quarantines and lockdown that are deployed to manage the virus's spread. Most

individuals are self-employed, and most of the workers are in the informal sector who are

primarily wage earners. Remittances that offer a critical income source and represent a social

safety net for most households are anticipated to experience the most challenging drop

worldwide, with an estimated 19% decline in 2021.

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In the private sector in Latin America, Covid-19 has had ripple repercussions in

various industries in the industry. Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) that generate

almost half of all employment in the region are still struggling in all sectors such as retail,

tourism, and manufacturing, and most cannot function under the current quarantine and

lockdowns. The crisis has dismantled supply chains as well, and handicapped foreign

domestic investment interfered with trade flows and curtailed business operations in

companies in the region (Hevia & Neumeyer, 2020). There is an increasing worry concerning

the private industry's capacity to access funding that could generate painful adjustments in the

current crisis for businesses in the region. Supply chain disruptions have struck the industries

as international trade is greatly affected. Furthermore, the pandemic is upending investment

decisions by the private sector, which influences its prevailing and prospective growth and

creates jobs and economic activity.

The severely hit economies in Latin America include Mexico, Argentina, and Peru.

Columbia, Chile, and Brazil incurred economic depreciation of more than 5% in 2020

(Guiroy et al., 2020). There will be a slow recovery in all the economies except Peru, leading

to an utterly V-shaped recovery. Risks to the baseline scenarios come primarily from changes

in domestic policies, global trade, health conditions, and the possibility of solvency worries to

curtail economic recovery. Fortunately, global financial circumstances are still supportive.

This, and the fact that the rest of Latam-6 nations (except Argentina) have low inflation rates,

offers enough room for central banks to maintain low-interest rates for longer and even

attempt unorthodox monetary easing in some situations, without messing up financial and

currency stability.

Portfolio Piece 2:

Current provision of water and sanitation remains woeful and contributes towards a

poor quality of life for the poor in Kenya

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Kenya has a population of about 50 million, and 32% of the population relies on

unimproved water sources such as shallow rivers and wells and ponds (Null et al., 2018).

However, about 45% of the population does not have access to essential sanitation solutions.

The challenges are particularly profound in urban slums and rural areas where people cannot

connect to a piped water system. In Kenya's rural areas, the aggregate costs for distant or

unreliable water supply are nearly $38 monthly. In contrast, the average bill for water in a

typical family in Nairobi connected to piped water infrastructure is a mere $5 monthly. The

difference demonstrates the economic challenges that typically fall heavily on unconnected

rural people than on families with piped water. Nonetheless, there are various areas where

piped systems do not provide a reliable regular water flow. For that reason, solutions such as

rainwater harvesting tanks and borehole wells are necessary for peri-urban areas and urban

settings.

There is currently more need for safe water amid the pandemic for healthy families in

Kenya for protecting themselves and their loved ones from Covid-19. Towns in Kenya are

developing in unprecedented fashion. Kenya's urban population is at 12 million now, and it is

projected to triple by 2050. Such vigorous urbanization has remarkable ramifications for

water consumption and the management of wastewater in the cities. It is much so in countries

that already have increasing demand and challenges of sanitation and water, such as

overexploitation and pollution (Stewart et al., 2018).

Half of Kenya's urban population can hardly access safe water and sanitation. Less

than 33% of the population can access improved sanitation, and less than 41% of Nairobi's

population has access to proper sewerage infrastructure. The country's national development

strategy, "Kenya Vision 2030," highlights the plan to fill such gaps and ensure that each

citizen can access fundamental sanitation and water by 2030, which is the Sustainable

Development Goals (SDGs) deadline.

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Through numerous International Development Association (IDA), the World Bank

has invested in ensuring Kenyans access to clean water and proper sanitation. The World

Bank does so through investing in Kenya Informal Settlements Improvement Project (KISIP),

Athi Water Services Board (AWSB), and in the Nairobi City Water and Sewerage Company

(NCWSC). However, there is a lot that should be done for the country to reach its target.

Since Nairobi is growing fast, many urban dwellers have been compelled into low-income

and informal settlements with little or no water and sanitation. Squalid living conditions and

poor infrastructure are rampant in such communities, and overcrowding has aggravated the

already dangerous health conditions.

It is possible to expand the water supply to the city, even though it is located

considerably high, at the top of the Athi River tributary basin with some local harvestable

water level. Typically, from the creation of Nairobi city, the struggle for expanding water

supply has been constant from distant freshwater sources. Regardless of the three consecutive

large scale water supply initiatives that were accomplished in mid 1995s, the water demand

outstripped the supply capacity by 2007. Thus, the city is in a structural situation of water

shortage that may become worse. Such fact has relative significant adverse effects on other

elements of water management, particularly given that water must be rationed. Now, another

critical expansion of the water infrastructure is necessary, and without which, the water

situation may further deteriorate in Nairobi (Pickering et al., 2019).

Therefore, the water shortage in Nairobi is an endemic issue that the government

needs to pay much attention to because access to clean water is among thindividuals'asic

needs Nairobi dwellers have had to suffer years. The few initiatives the government has put

in place have not helped much. Furthermore, areas known for affluent individuals and senior

government officials have adequate water. Still, areas such as Kayole and most of the city's
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eastern parts suffer from inadequate water supply (Akala, 2019). Consequently, residents

must purchase water from tankers, and the purity of such water is questionable.

Therefore, the government's strategies have done little to help the poor people

concerning clean water and sanitation. Suppose the government can solve the water problem.

In that case, most poor families, especially the families in the ghettos such as Kayole-Soweto

and Kibera, will save extra coins for food and other things such as medication. Poor

sanitation in such areas has made the areas have constant cases of diseases. Therefore, water

would be handy, especially in this covid-19 period (Mallory et al., 2021).

However, the situation was worse before 2012 until the emergence of the World

Bank-supported project in 2012 that underscored sanitation and clean water in most Nairobi

parts. Currently, most households and places in Nairobi that suffered from a lack of clean

water and sanitation can now have clean water and a relatively proper sewage system.

Portfolio Piece 3:

Aid & Development

Senegal is one of the nations in Africa stable and has experienced three critical and

peaceful political changes since they gained independence in 1960. For instance, the

presidential elections of February 2019 installed President Macky Sall in office. Accordingly,

Senegal has not experienced the regional insecurities, but terrorist activism groups in their

neighbors risk national security and have caused insecurities in the country.

The nation's economic expansion is among the best performing in Africa since 2014,

which has continuously remained at an annual growth of 6%. The government realized a

5.3% increase in 2019. Accordingly, the service industry is increasingly the most significant

contributor to GDP growth. On the side of demand, the strongest drivers of the development

were exports (+7.2%) and investment (+12.5%) (Dieye, 2020).

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Covid-19 has dramatically altered the country's economy since early 2020. The

economic growth has significantly slowed to 1.3% in 2020, with services such as transport

and tourism and exportation suffering the most. The country has, over time, reduced its over-

reliance on foreign aid and development, particularly from the World Bank, and it currently

finances a larger proportion of its budget, unlike was the case immediately after

independence (Munyanyi & Churchill, 2020).

The country responded with applied measures of containment and a rigorous

economic stimulus strategy to safeguard citizens' lives. Nonetheless, limited safety nets and

fiscal buffers, a susceptible healthcare infrastructure, and a substantial informal industry pose

problems.

The economic recovery will possibly be modest, instigated by an active return to

private investment and consumption. Changes projected as per Senegal Emerging Plan (PSE)

should be supported to recover its pre-pandemic path. Significant crowding in private

investment is critical to expanding its productive ability and advocating for export growth.

Services are still the primary GDP contributor, and the leading agriculture (Angeli Aguiton,

2020), the primary sector is the most significant dynamic driver of growth. Gas and oil

developments have delayed because of the pandemic and estimated to contribute to exports

and revenues in 2025.

Although the World Bank has helped Senegal in the fight again Covid-19, just as it

has done in most countries worldwide, Senegal has primarily used its resources to fight the

pandemic (Faye et al., nd). In the past, the government would have solely relied on foreign

aid and development funds. Furthermore, Senegal encourages internal investment and

borrows from Segal citizens to fund most of its budget and only borrows externally if

necessary. Otherwise, the country sponsors most of its projects to avoid any external

influence from lenders and donors. For that reason, in the covid-19 period, the government
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has provided frontline workers against the pandemic with free masks. It has dramatically

helped doctors and nurses against the virus, who have, in turn, cared for patients, and the

country is among the countries that have registered low cases of deaths due to covid-19

(Seck, 2020). Moreover, the country has and is still conducting civic education concerning

the safety measures against covid-19. For example, the government has invested a significant

amount in sensitizing the public on how to wash their hands and the safe distance they should

maintain to prevent the virus's spread.

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References

Akala, J. (2019). In the technological footprints of urbanity: A socio-political history of water

and sanitation in Nairobi, 1899-2015.

Angeli Aguiton, S. (2020). A market infrastructure for environmental intangibles: the

materiality and challenges of index insurance for agriculture in Senegal. Journal of

Cultural Economy, 1-16.

Cottani, J. (2020). The Effects of Covid-19 on Latin America’s Economy. Center for Strategic

and International Studies.

Dieye, A. (2020). Sustainability of the Senegal Socioeconomic Model. In An Islamic Model

for Stabilization and Growth (pp. 157-182). Palgrave Macmillan, Cham.

Faye, C., Wade, C. T., Diéye, S., & Gomis, E. N. A Review of the Results of Senegal's

Response to the COVID-19 Pandemic Through State of Emergency and Curfew.

Fernandes, N. (2020). Economic effects of coronavirus outbreak (COVID-19) on the world

economy. Available at SSRN 3557504.

Guiroy, A., Gagliardi, M., Coombes, N., Landriel, F., Zanardi, C., Camino Willhuber, G., ...

& Valacco, M. (2020). COVID-19 impact among spine surgeons in Latin America.

Global spine journal, 2192568220928032.

Hevia, C., & Neumeyer, A. (2020). A conceptual framework for analyzing the economic

impact of COVID-19 and its policy implications. UNDP LAC COVID-19 Policy

Documents Series, 1, 29.

López-Feldman, A., Chávez, C., Vélez, M. A., Bejarano, H., Chimeli, A. B., Féres, J., ... &

Viteri, C. (2020). Environmental impacts and policy responses to Covid-19: a view

from Latin America. Environmental and Resource Economics, 1-6.

Mallory, A., Omoga, L., Kiogora, D., Riungu, J., Kagendi, D., & Parker, A. (2021).

Understanding the role of informal pit emptiers in sanitation in Nairobi through case
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studies in Mukuru and Kibera settlements. Journal of Water, Sanitation and Hygiene

for Development, 11(1), 51-59.

Munyanyi, M. E., & Awaworyi Churchill, S. (2020). Foreign aid and energy poverty: Sub-

national evidence from Senegal. Available at SSRN 3673243.

Null, C., Stewart, C. P., Pickering, A. J., Dentz, H. N., Arnold, B. F., Arnold, C. D., ... &

Colford Jr, J. M. (2018). Effects of water quality, sanitation, handwashing, and

nutritional interventions on diarrhoea and child growth in rural Kenya: a cluster-

randomised controlled trial. The Lancet Global Health, 6(3), e316-e329.

Pickering, A. J., Njenga, S. M., Steinbaum, L., Swarthout, J., Lin, A., Arnold, B. F., ... &

Null, C. (2019). Effects of single and integrated water, sanitation, handwashing, and

nutrition interventions on child soil-transmitted helminth and Giardia infections: A

cluster-randomized controlled trial in rural Kenya. PLoS medicine, 16(6), e1002841.

Seck, A. (2020). Poverty Consequences of COVID-19 Epidemic-Induced Lockdowns in

Senegal: Extent and Implications from a Household Survey.

Stewart, C. P., Kariger, P., Fernald, L., Pickering, A. J., Arnold, C. D., Arnold, B. F., ... &

Null, C. (2018). Effects of water quality, sanitation, handwashing, and nutritional

interventions on child development in rural Kenya (WASH Benefits Kenya): a

cluster-randomised controlled trial. The lancet child & adolescent health, 2(4), 269-

280.