Construction and Building Materials 266 (2021) 121050

Contents lists available at ScienceDirect

Construction and Building Materials

journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/conbuildmat

Carbonation model for fly ash concrete based on artificial neural

network: Development and parametric analysis
Emerson F. Felix a,⇑, Rogério Carrazedo a, Edna Possan b
a
Department of Structural Engineering, University of São Paulo at São Carlos School of Engineering, São Carlos, São Paulo, Brazil
b
Latin American Institute of Technology, Infrastructure and Territory, Federal University of Latin American Integration, UNILA, Foz do Iguaçu, Brazil

h i g h l i g h t s g r a p h i c a l a b s t r a c t

Artificial neural networks are used to

predict carbonation in fly ash
concrete.

ANN with two hidden layers can
generate models with R2 greater than
0.8.

The model proposed consider
parameters considers parameters to
be easily acquired.

Techniques based on machine
learning can accurately predict
carbonation results.

Fly ash content significantly
interferes in the concrete carbonation
rate.

a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t

Article history: Control and prediction of the carbonation depth in reinforced concrete structures has great relevance for
Received 18 July 2020 construction industry, since the carbonation process is directly related to the service life and durability of
Received in revised form 11 September these structures. One challenge in carbonation modelling is to understand the complex relation between
2020
the main parameters of the phenomenon. An Artificial Neural Network (ANN) may overcome this chal-
Accepted 17 September 2020
Available online 1 October 2020
lenge, finding solutions to these nonlinear and complex problems. In this study, an ANN with backprop-
agation algorithm is used in predicting the carbonation depth of concretes that contains fly ash addition.
A total of 90 ANN topologies are implemented. It was observed in the training process that networks with
Keywords:
Fly ash concrete
two hidden layers are able to generate models with determination coefficient greater than 0.8. One of
Carbonation depth them is select as the one that best fit the problem. The optimized configuration provided smallest root
Artificial intelligence mean square error associated with the best determination coefficient. Besides, the parametric study
Artificial neural networks shown that the parameters that had most influence on the carbonation depth in fly ash-concretes were
the cement consumption, fly ash content, CO2 rate and relative humidity. Besides, results indicate that the
model can be applied to estimate the lifespan of concrete structures, and may be used as simulation tool
in the development of engineering projects focused on durability.
Ó 2020 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

1. Introduction

Corrosion is the main pathological manifestation in reinforced

⇑ Corresponding author. concrete structures and has great influence on the composite
E-mail addresses: emerson.felipe.felix@gmail.com (E.F. Felix), rogcarrazedo@sc. material behavior throughout its lifespan [1,2]. The carbon dioxide
usp.br (R. Carrazedo), epossan@gmail.com (E. Possan).

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.conbuildmat.2020.121050
0950-0618/Ó 2020 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
E.F. Felix et al.
(CO2) diffusion in concrete, a process denominated carbonation, is
the main cause of reinforcement depassivation of concrete ele-
ments in urban environments [3].
Therefore, several predictive models for concrete carbonation
have been developed over the past few years [4–11]. However,
most of them are not recommended in project codes so far, despite
the significant advances in the formulations developed in the last
two decades [12]. Nonetheless, a model for the prediction of the
residual service is found in the European Community [13]. This is
justified by the multiple parameters involved, lack of experimental
data considering different scenarios, complexity of the physical–
chemical laws that govern the entire mechanism (due to division
of corrosion process into two stages, initiation and propagation),
among others.
Most of the models available in the literature are based in either
linear regression or, more complexly, in solving the physical–
chemical equations that govern the carbonation mechanism. For
both situations, it is hard or even unfeasible to consider the several
factors that interfere in the carbonation phenomenon. Besides,
when more parameters are used, the model’s extrapolation or gen-
eralization may provide results with low reliability.
In this context, Artificial Intelligence (AI) is promising, because
computational tools such as Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) can
circumvent the difficulties in the carbonation modeling process.
ANN are proven to be effective alternatives with good applicability
in modeling different nature problems [14,15]. Luo et al. [16] and
Akpinar and Uwanuakwa [17] report that efficient models for the
concrete carbonation prediction can be obtained by ANN due to
its ability to map complex and nonlinear problems.
Thus, following the ever increasing use of AI and ANN in diverse
areas of knowledge, especially in concrete carbonation depth
[18–21], this work intends to establish a model to predict concrete
carbonation depth with fly ash addition up to 50%, through ANN.
Concrete with more than 50% of fly ash addition were not consid-
ered in this study due to the low amount of experimental results in
the literature, which would not allow good learning in the ANN
training. Also, a parametric analysis is made to identify the influ-
ence of the water/binder ratio, relative humidity, atmosphere
CO2 content, addition contents and cement consumption on the
progress and behavior of carbonation. Temperature was not
included as a variable since only environmental temperature are
considered, around 20–30 °C. Drouet et al. [22] showed that the
carbonation process is not significantly influenced by this temper-
ature range.
This paper is divided in four sections. First one presents the
introduction, with a contextualization of this work, brief descrip-
tion of the concrete carbonation modeling processes presented in
the literature and the ANN potentiality to model complex and non-
linear problems. Second section presents the modeling process
adopted in this work. After training the ANN, the best model is
determined and results regarding validation and performance
analysis is presented in the third section, where a parametric anal-
ysis is performed to show the model applicability. Finally, the con-
clusions section brings the final remarks.
1.1. Concrete carbonation modelling
Carbonation study has been reported in literature for more than
half a century and the theoretical framework on the topic is exten-
sive [4–8,16,18–20]. The interest in the area led several researchers
to develop models of the behavior and/or prediction of concrete
carbonation over time.
Until the mid-1980 s, models for concrete carbonation depth
were developed through linear and nonlinear regression, consider-
ing different factors, for example, water/binder ratio (w/b), binder
type and exposure conditions [2,23]. In the following years some
2
Construction and Building Materials 266 (2021) 121050
researchers begin to use physical–chemical formulations related
to the cement paste hydration reactions and to the CO2 dissolution
in the concrete matrix porous, improving the evaluation of the car-
bonation depth [5–7]. Nonetheless, these models hold great com-
plexity in solving CO2 diffusion equations and have parameters
that are difficult to measure, such as the diffusion coefficient of
carbon dioxide in concrete.
With computing advancement and emergence of AI and
machine learning techniques, new formulations have been devel-
oped over time to reduce models’ uncertainties [1,16,17,24]. ANN
has been becoming commonplace regarding carbonation phe-
nomenon modeling. As an example, the total number of papers
related to concrete carbonation modeling published in the last dec-
ade and reported in Science Direct database is 396. Among these
papers, 108 (27%) use some machine learning techniques (Support
Vector Machine, ANN, generic algorithms, and others) for
modeling. Fifty studies (13%) employ specifically ANN, as shown
in Fig. 1.
When it comes to modeling the carbonation of concrete con-
taining additions, especially fly ash, only a few works have been
developed in recent years comparing to the total number of pub-
lished papers in the area, which only corresponds to a proportion
of 7%. This happens due to difficulties in determining a formulation
for carbonation depth that considers the influence of all involved
parameters in the phenomenon, specially the influence of the type
and content of this addition on cement or concrete [25].
Several works in literature describe carbonation and its influ-
ence factors [8,20,26–31]. Possan et al. [8], Pauletti et al. [29] and
Ekolu [12] quote that, in general, parameters that influence the car-
bonation are related to: (i) environmental conditions, as tempera-
ture, relative humidity and CO2 content; (ii) concrete
characteristics, as material dosage (trace), execution process, addi-
tion content, curing conditions and binder chemical composition;
and (iii) exposure conditions (internal or external) and rain
covering.
Thus, these factors must be considered both in the carbonation
phenomenon study and in its modeling, to embrace all parameters
contribution related to the problem. In this context, factors as
water/binder ratio (w/b), cement consumption, CO2 content, envi-
ronment relative humidity and fly ash addition content were con-
sidered in the development of carbonation prediction model via
ANN as input variables and, a posteriori, these same factors were
analyzed regarding their importance and influence in the modeling
and phenomenon behavior.
1.2. Artificial neural networks
The ANN are structures inspired by human brain and can be
defined as a parallel and distributed system composed by process-
ing units, called the neurons. These networks are capable to
approximate complex functions with high generality [31]. A
human neuron has one or more layers interconnected by axons,
in which the soma (cell body plus nucleus) retains information
(Fig. 2a). Neurons are disposed in one or more layers (Fig. 2b),
linked by connections associated with synaptic weights that may
store knowledge [32].
Artificial Neural Network are capable to map relations between
input and output layers. Besides, they may compile information
that are not readily seen, by interpolating the results.
Haykin [31] reports that an ANN presents five basic elements
that resemble the biological ones: (I) an input set xk where each
P
input carries its respective synaptic weight, wk; (II) an adder
to sum the input signals, ponder by the respective neuron weights;
(III) an activation function, F(∙), to restrict the output amplitude;
(IV) a bias bk responsible for increasing or decreasing the net input
of the activation function (equivalent to a horizontal translation of
E.F. Felix et al. Construction and Building Materials 266 (2021) 121050

Fig. 1. Number of papers reported in Science Direct database regarding concrete carbonation modeling.

Fig. 2. Representation of (a) a biological neural network and (b) an artificial neural network of Perceptron type.

the activation function graph); and, (V) an output generated by the

network yk as showed in Fig. 2b. In general, a k neuron output of an
ANN Perceptron can be evaluated using Eq. (1).
!
X
n
yk ¼ F wkj xj þ bk ð1Þ
j¼1

where yk represents the k neuron output, F is the activation func-

tion, wkj are the synaptic weights, xj represent the inputs and bk
refer to the bias.
Every network must go through a learning process to map and
approximate a function, and the supervised one is the most used
[32]. The name ‘‘supervised” holds for the network that is initially
controlled by a supervisor, who presents the data to the ANN
which has the objective of finding a relation between input–output
pairs provided in the problem.
The supervised training method used in this study is ‘‘feedfor-
ward backpropagation” [31], the same training method used by
Martins [33] in an ANN to develop a prediction model for the car-
bonation depth of concrete structures located in urban
environment.
Nowadays, there are several types of networks in literature, Fig. 3. Representation of an ANN of MLP type.
which differ especially regarding topology (network architecture).
Braga et al. [32] report that topology has great importance on the
behavior and functioning of a network, since it limits the ANN Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) ANN type. MLP networks have great
applicability to certain problem classes. In the present work neural process information capacity, which allows mapping of non-
networks with multiple neuron layers were used (Fig. 3), the linearly separable data [34].

3
E.F. Felix et al.
2. Model development
In order to determine a predictive model to carbonation of con-
cretes with fly ash, the methodology presented in the flowchart of
Fig. 4 was followed. A program developed in C++, which has already
been validated and employed in other works by the authors [20,21],
was used in the modeling through artificial neural network.
In the first step, a database was created. In the second one, con-
vergence analysis with fixed topology ANN was carried out, to
determine the best learning rate algorithm. Training and validation
of 90 networks (distinguished by topology) were performed in
third step. Then, the analysis of results was conducted to select
models with root mean squared error (RMSE) smaller than 3 mm
– which corresponds to the average error for the carbonation depth
of the entire database. At last, in fourth step, the selected networks
were analyzed regarding their performance and the one with the
best representation of carbonation behavior was identified.
2.1. Database definition
Database creation relied on 272 literature data [35–45], com-
piled as shows Table 1. Such data come from experimental studies
of carbonation from concretes with and without addition of fly ash.
The fly ash addition is considered only as a cement replacement.
Besides, the accelerated carbonation tests used plain concrete
specimens, uncracked, and unloaded, with different mixes propor-
tion, exposed to different environmental condition, as relative
humidity, and CO2 content. Maximum and minimum values are
described in the next section.
In the ANN modeling process, it was necessary to divide data-
base into three sets, one for training, one for validation and the
other to the test stage and performance evaluation, according to
the division indicated in Table 1.
2.2. Selecting the input parameters
To select the important variables to carbonation modeling, a
data dispersion analysis was performed. Pearson’s (Equation (2))
and Spearman’s (Equation (3)) correlation coefficients were also
Fig. 4. Representation of an ANN of MLP type.
4
Construction and Building Materials 266 (2021) 121050
calculated to verify the influence of each available parameter in
database - cement consumption (kg/m3), CO2 content (%), fly ash
addition content (%), relative humidity (%) and w/b ratio, according
to Table 2 and Fig. 5.
Pn
ðx  x Þðy  y Þ
q ¼ sffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffi
i¼1 i m
ffisffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffi
i m
ð2Þ
P
n
2 P
n
2
ðxi  xm Þ ðyi  ym Þ
i¼1 i¼1
cov ðrg X ; rg Y Þ
qs ¼ ð3Þ
rðrg X Þrðrg Y Þ
where xi and yi are the analyzed variables, xm and ym represent the
average values, cov(.) is the covariance function, r(.) is the standard
deviation function, and rgx and rgy are the rank of the pair of vari-
ables x and y.
Scatterplots and correlation coefficients (Fig. 5) enabled a
behavior analysis of available data and to evaluate whether data
presented proper behavior, considering theoretical foundations of
carbonation phenomenon. Thus, it was observed that:
I. There is an inverse relation between cement consumption
and carbonation depth, with negative correlation of 0.45
(Pearson). Regarding monotonicity, a tendency of a fully
decreasing profile for carbonation was observed since Spear-
man coefficient is 0.58.
II. It was not possible to verify a linear correlation or mono-
tonicity between the carbonation depth and the relative
humidity since the correlation coefficients are approxi-
mately zero. It is known that the relationship between car-
bonation depth and relative humidity is non-linear,
presenting a quadratic profile, where maximum carbonation
occurs for humidity close to 60%, and that this environmen-
tal faction has great influence in the phenomenon [27].
III. There is a linear correlation between carbonation depth, CO2
content and w/b ratio, indicated by correlation coefficients
greater than 0.4. Same occurs for monotonicity, in which
Spearman coefficient was, for w/b ratio, 0.54, and for CO2
content 0.45.
E.F. Felix et al. Construction and Building Materials 266 (2021) 121050

Table 1
Number of collected data from literature and database division.

Data reference N. of data N. of data reserved to:

Training Validation Test
Atis [35] 5 3 1 1
Kurda et al. [36] 85 51 17 17
Younsi et al. [37] 15 9 3 3
Lu et al. [38] 36 22 7 7
Hussain et al. [39] 48 30 9 9
Jian et al. [40] 18 12 3 3
Zhao et al. [41] 36 22 7 7
Rozière et al. [42] 4 2 1 1
Das and Pandey [43] 10 6 2 2
Zhang and Li [44] 5 3 1 1
Van and De Belie [45] 10 6 2 2

Table 2
Data correlation coefficients.

Parameter Minimum value Maximum value Correlation

Pearson Spearman
Cement consumption (kg/m3) 250.00 450.00 0.45 0.58
w/b ratio 0.25 0.65 0.40 0.54
Fly-Ash content (%) 0.00 50.00 0.10 0.06
CO2 content (%) 0.10 20.00 0.49 0.45
Relative humidity (%) 45.00 70.00 0.06 0.07

IV. The coefficients found for the fly ash content were 0.10 for
Pearson and 0.06 for Spearman. However, there is a small
nonlinear tendency for carbonation to increase as fly ash
content also increases, as seen in Fig. 5. Therefore, there is
no direct relationship or monotonous profile of the carbona-
tion depth with the fly ash content.
Thus, it is possible to verify that the influence of the w/b ratio,
CO2 content and cement consumption can be captured in the mod-
eling process, since these processes give median correlations, lead-
ing to the existence of a proportionality law between these
variables. This does not happen with relative humidity and fly
ash content. However, as all variables are directly or indirectly
related to the CO2 diffusion mechanism in the concrete porous
matrix [4,26,27] and, as present work aims to establish a model
considering concretes with fly ash, the employed variables for net-
work training were cement consumption (kg/m3), CO2 content (%),
fly ash content (%), relative humidity (%), w/b ratio and time. It is
only through a parametric analysis that will be verified whether
these variables are indeed important to describe the phenomenon
behavior or not.
2.3. ANN training and parameters definition
Several topologies were tested differing by the number of hid-
den layers (one or two) and by the number of neurons present in
each of these layers. The number of neurons varied from 1 to 9.
These topologies are presented in Fig. 6 and b.
As the network learning is supervised with the backpropagation
training algorithm, a learning rate must be stablished, since it is
directly related to the network convergence rate [46]. Fausett
[46] reports that using small values for the learning rate can lead
to a long training, while large learning rates can result in oscilla-
tions around the solution, preventing convergence.
Thus, twelve simulations varying learning rate from 0.05 to 0.60
(with 0.05 increments) were performed, in which a network with
fixed topology of [6-4-1] was adopted. In other words, a network
with six neurons in the input layer, four in the processing layer
5
and one in the output layer was adopted for the learning rate
assessment.
Fig. 7 presents the number of required iterations for training the
network with a [6-4-1] topology by RMSE value (see Equation (4))
for the training and the validation stages. A learning rate of 0.4
generated the best results and, therefore, was adopted in this work.
To all the training processes, it was adopted a bipolar sigmoid
function.
vffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffi
u n
u1 X
RMSE ¼ t ðy  t i Þ2 ð4Þ
n i¼1 i
where yi is the network estimated values, ti represents the known
values and n the amount of data used in the analysis.
After fixing the learning rate, ANN training was initiated, using
as convergence criteria the RMSE value (Equation (4)) and the
maximum number of iterations (1 0 5). Network validation was
implemented in parallel to training phase, preventing the over-
training of the networks, known as ‘‘overfitting” [31].
3. Results and discussion
3.1. Analysis of the ANN modeling
The fifteen best models obtained by ANN training, with RMSE
below 3.0 mm, are presented in descending order in Table 3.
Most of developed models presented satisfactory results for the
adopted R2, RMSE and Emax (maximum error), which demonstrates
the ANN efficiency to map carbonation behavior. Yet it is interest-
ing to notice that as ANN is improved in training phase, it worsens
in the validation stage, as seen in Fig. 8 by comparing the coeffi-
cient of determination (R2) values and root mean squared error
(RMSE). This remarks the importance of using the ‘‘cross-
validation” technique (validation and training simultaneously) in
the ANN learning process.
The models obtained by only network training with [6-2-3-1]
and [6-6-7-1] topology exhibited the best performances, consider-
E.F. Felix et al. Construction and Building Materials 266 (2021) 121050

Fig. 5. Data scatterplots over time of (a) cement consumption, (b) fly ash content, (c) relative humidity, (d) w/b ratio and (e) CO2 content.

ing the determination coefficient and RMSE analysis. However, performance, with smaller variation of R2 and RMSE. Therefore,
when comparing variation of the values between training and [6-6-7-1] network was selected and established for this work
validation phases, [6-6-7-1] network is the one exhibiting better henceforth.

6
E.F. Felix et al. Construction and Building Materials 266 (2021) 121050

Fig. 6. ANNs topology with (a) one hidden layer and (b) two hidden layers.

entire database (Fig. 10), in which R2 is 0.91. Determination coeffi-

Fig. 7. Learning rate assessment.
A performance assessment was then conducted on the ANN
model [6-6-7-1]. The analysis was performed in order to demon-
strate the model applicability to predict the carbonation depth
for fly ash-concretes. The database used in the performance assess-
ment corresponds to non-used data so far – the test data. Values
estimated by the proposed model were compared with the col-
lected experimentally by [35–45] (see Fig. 9). Fig. 10 presents the
determination coefficient of the predicted carbonation depth for
all database (data of training, validation, and test stages).
The results indicate that the model is efficient regarding car-
bonation depth prediction in the test phase (Fig. 9) since its deter-
mination coefficient is 0.89. The same is observed considering the
cient superior than 0.89 is a great indicative about the model effi-
ciency, especially for the concrete carbonation depth, in view of all
the different variables that may affect it.
Fig. 11 shows that less than 20% of the results presented by the
selected model have an absolute residue greater than 2.33 mm.
This value corresponds to the RMSE of the model. The difference
between estimated and experimental values did not exceed
4.0 mm. Since the accuracy of a ruler for carbonation depth mea-
surement is 0.5 mm [47], we consider acceptable the error of the
estimated value in the order of 2 mm, considering all the variability
associated with the concrete carbonation phenomenon. Consider-
ing several factors that may affect measurement, Possan et al. [8]
points out that error in order of 5 mm are acceptable.
Thus, the developed ANN model can estimate the carbonation
depth of concretes with and without fly ash addition yet subjected
to accelerated carbonation tests. The model may help to under-
stand this physical–chemical phenomenon, especially in durability
and performance studies.
3.2. Parametric analysis
Carbonation of concrete consists of a complex mechanism of
diffusion that is dependent on exposure conditions and materials
properties and proportions. The addition of fly ash consumes cal-
cium hydroxide from cement hydration, which affects the carbon-
ation rate. Therefore, in this part of the work, a parametric study is
developed to evaluate the influence of each variable considered in
the model - cement consumption, CO2 content, fly ash addition

Table 3
ANN performance for training and validation stages.

Topology Training Validation

2
RMSE (mm) Emax (mm) R RMSE (mm) Emax (mm) R2
2
[6-2-3-1] 2.7251 4.0712 0.9254 2.0688 3.2287 0.9460
[6-5-4-1]2 2.7545 3.7865 0.8965 2.1943 3.3611 0.9405
2
[6-4-5-1] 2.7796 3.9539 0.8659 2.1985 3.3314 0.9308
1
[6-7-1] 2.9811 4.1906 0.8515 2.2229 3.3955 0.9260
[6-6-7-1]2 2.6538 3.5815 0.9426 2.3348 3.4313 0.9163
[6-2-5-1]2 2.6455 3.5672 0.9434 2.3431 3.4355 0.8966
[6-6-2-1]2 2.7374 3.7691 0.9239 2.4262 3.4423 0.8957
[6-1-3-1]2 2.4957 3.3303 0.9533 2.4613 3.4956 0.8741
2
[6-6-4-1] 2.7687 3.9287 0.8943 2.3202 3.3766 0.8741
1
[6-4-1] 2.3305 3.0959 0.9566 2.5580 3.5513 0.8676
2
[6-6-6-1] 1.9675 2.6156 0.9576 2.6202 3.6277 0.8656
[6-5-1]1 2.1745 2.8859 0.9569 2.6299 3.5942 0.8395
[6-5-6-1]2 1.9400 2.5798 0.9585 2.6514 3.6424 0.8328
[6-1-4-1]2 2.0479 2.7196 0.9570 2.6840 3.6303 0.8305
[6-4-3-1]2 1.9653 2.6124 0.9579 2.7174 3.6541 0.8151
1 2
[x-y-z] 3 layers topology, where x indicates the input number, y the neuron number in the hidden layer and z the output number. [x-y-w-z] 4 layers topology, where x
indicates the input number, y the neuron number in the first hidden layer, w the neuron number in the second hidden layer, and z the output number.

7
E.F. Felix et al.
Fig. 8. ANN performance in training and validation process.
Fig. 9. Comparison of carbonation depth between model results and experimental
observations considering data from the test stage.
content, relative humidity, and w/b ratio. A reference scenario was
stablished with CO2 content equal to 1%, relative humidity 65%, w/
b ratio 0.5, cement consumption 300 kg/m3 and without fly ash
addition, in a concrete element without surface protection. Six ana-
lyzes were carried out, each varying two input variables, then eval-
uating the results – the carbonation depth.
In order to analyze the influence of different fly ash contents
(0%, 15% and 30%), concrete with different compositions and expo-
sure conditions were simulated, considering only one year of expo-
sure to 1% CO2 content. Results are presented in Fig. 12.
Fig. 12 shows that the carbonation depth decreases as cement
consumption increases (Fig. 12) and increases as w/b ratio also
increases (Fig. 12b), regardless fly ash content. This happen due
to the CO2 diffusion delay in concretes with high cement consump-
tion combined with good curing conditions, because these condi-
tions lead to greater compactness and less porosity in cement
matrix [48].
Aguayo et al. [49] experimentally verified that the carbonation
resistance in concrete with addition contents up to 30% is more
sensitive to w/b ratio than concretes with contents between 30
8
Construction and Building Materials 266 (2021) 121050
Fig. 10. Comparison of carbonation depth between model results and experimental
observations considering the entire database.
Fig. 11. Residual error (mm)  observed carbonation depth (mm).
and 50%. Furthermore, concrete with addition up to 30% remark-
ably increased the carbonated depth when w/b ratio is increased.
The inverse relationship between cement consumption and car-
bonated depth, regardless of the concrete age, occurs mainly due to
the greater availability of calcium hydroxide and, consequently, by
the alkaline reserve in mixtures with higher cement content [25].
Parrot [27] and Duval [50] experimentally verified that the carbon-
ation depth is inversely proportional to cement consumption
mostly to consumptions below 300 kg/m3. As the consumption
increases (above 300 kg/m3), this inverse relation tends to attenu-
ate, as proven in Fig. 13.
Fig. 14 shows that w/b ratio has greater influence than cement
consumption in carbonation depth. Thus, even for concrete pro-
duced with higher dosages of cement, CO2 diffusion capacity will
increase with higher w/b ratio, leading to higher carbonation rate.
Fig. 15 shows a positive correlation between water/binder ratio
and carbonation depth. This tendency becomes more meaningful
as material age increases, as observed by Papadakis [5], Hamada
[26], and Felix et al. [51]. Similarly, Leemann and Moro [52] veri-
fied by accelerated carbonation tests that concretes with the same
composition, but with different w/b ratios presented smaller car-
bonation resistance as w/b ratio increases. They also reported a
correlation (Spearman) of 0.88 between w/b ratio and CO2 diffu-
sion coefficient in concrete matrix.
E.F. Felix et al.
Fig. 12. Effect of (a) cement consumption, (b) w/b ratio, (c) CO2 content and (d) relative humidity in carbonation of concretes with different fly ash addition contents.
Fig. 13. Cement consumption and time effects in carbonation depth (a) 3D; (b) isolines.
Fig. 16 shows that the carbonation depth increases as carbon
dioxide and fly ash contents increase. The same behavior is seen
in Fig. 12c. Felix et al. [20] analyzed concretes inserted in different
exposure environments (laboratory – CO2 at 1%; tunnels – CO2 at
0.3%; urban area with heavy traffic – CO2 at 0.1%; light exposure
– CO2 at 0.04%; and, countryside – CO2 at 0.03%) and verified that,
higher the CO2 exposure degree higher the carbonation rate.
Besides, an increase of 0.1% in CO2 exposure degree increased the
carbonation depth in 2.15%.
Fig. 12d brings up the humidity effect on the carbonation depth.
Around 60% of humidity, a peak is noticed as also noticed by with
Parrot [27] and Possan et al. [53]. They also point out that the car-
bonation depth reaches its maximum value when relative humid-
ity lies between 50 and 80%, and that this environmental faction
has great influence in the phenomenon. Possan et al. [53] verified
the influence of the moisture on the carbonation depth in a real
9
Construction and Building Materials 266 (2021) 121050
structure. They extracted specimens from a 35-year-old concrete
dam and observed that higher the moisture, lower the carbonation
depth. Moreover, when moisture was around 100%, no carbonation
was observed. Thus, Fig. 17 shows that carbonation rate is maxi-
mum when humidity is close to 60%, regardless the concrete age,
in accordance with reference results.
Fig. 18 indicates that there is a decreasing trend in the carbon-
ation depth as fly ash content is increased. This behavior had
already been described by Zhang and Li [44].
Besides, Khunthongkeaw et al. [54] verified that there is a pos-
itive correlation between addition content and carbonation depth
for concretes with addition contents up to 30%. For contents above
50%, this correlation is attenuated. For content between 30% and
50%, the carbonation depth has a positive relationship with the
amount of addition, yet smaller than the observed in concretes
with additions below 30%.
E.F. Felix et al. Construction and Building Materials 266 (2021) 121050

Fig. 14. Cement consumption and w/b ratio vs carbonation depth (a) 3D; (b) isolines.

Fig. 15. W/b ratio and time effects in concrete carbonation depth (a) 3D; (b) isolines.

Fig. 16. CO2 content and w/b ratio effects in carbonation depth (a) 3D; (b) isolines.

Notice that in this analysis the w/b ratio and other properties
related to concrete strength were kept constant. Thus, associating
these results with the presented in Fig. 12b, it can be inferred that
for a certain concrete strength, carbonation depth increases as fly
ash content also increases. Nevertheless, Felix et al. [20] observed
in numerical simulations that as concrete compressive strength
increases, additions content no longer influences in carbonation
depth, the same reported by Hussain et al. [39]. Kulakowski et al.
[55] reported that in concretes with compressive strength above
30 MPa, the porosity is smaller due to smaller w/b ratios (below
0.50). The smaller porosity hinders CO2 access into the concrete
and, consequently, results in less carbonation depth, even for con-

10
E.F. Felix et al.
Fig. 17. Relative humidity and time effects in carbonation depth (a) 3D; (b) isolines.
Fig. 18. Fly ash content and time effects in carbonation depth (a) 3D; (b) isolines.
cretes with low alkaline reserve. However, in concrete with com-
pressive strength below 30 MPa, the presence of fly ash addition
increases carbonated depth due the effect of alkaline reserve,
which in these cases is predominant.
4. Conclusions
In this work we explored an artificial neural network to model
the carbonation depth in concretes with fly ash. The proposed pro-
cess shows that the technique is quite simple and reliable to map
physical–chemical behaviors, even the complexes ones, as is the
case of CO2 diffusion in concrete matrix.
Considering the results of the ANN’s development and training,
80% of the trained networks revealed maximum error below
5.0 mm (carbonation depth) and an average error of 3.0 mm, show-
ing that regardless the employed topology, this technique pro-
duced models with consistent representation of carbonation
phenomenon.
Based on the selected ANN model, some simulations have been
carried out aiming a parametrical analysis of the input variables
and some points are highlighted:
& Carbonated depth, regardless concrete age, increases as w/b
ratio, fly ash addition content and/or CO2 concentration also
increase, which indicates a positive statistical correlation
among these parameters.
11
Construction and Building Materials 266 (2021) 121050
& Carbonation depth has an inverse relation with cement con-
sumption, regardless fly ash addition content. Also, when ana-
lyzing the influence of cement consumption with other
variables, it can be noticed that cement consumption has a sec-
ondary influence variable on carbonation depth.
& Fly ash addition content significantly interferes in carbonation
capacity, varying according to concrete age and its cement con-
sumption. Besides, addition content is more significant in con-
cretes with consumptions between 250 and 300 kg/m3.
& Relative humidity with values between 50 and 60% leads to
greater carbonation depths, in which this value is dependent
on the fly ash content addition. As an example, for concretes
without fly ash addition, relative humidity of 50% generates a
peak value for the carbonation depth, whereas for a concrete
with 30% of fly ash addition content, the humidity that yield
the maximum carbonation is 57%.
& When analyzing the influence of CO2 content and w/b ratio, it
was observed that CO2 content has greater relevance in the phe-
nomenon. Thus, environmental exposure with higher CO2 con-
centration (tunnels, parking lots, urban environment with
heavy vehicle traffic, etc.) increase carbonation, regardless w/b
ratio.
The developed ANN model is capable to coherently represent
the carbonation depth of concrete in function of cement consump-
tion, fly ash addition content, relative humidity, w/b ratio and CO2
E.F. Felix et al.
concentration of exposure environment, therefore faithfully
reflecting the influence of several parameters involved in the phe-
nomenon. The proposed model can be used to estimate the carbon-
ation depth for any instant of concrete service life. It may also be
used to predict the corrosion initiation time, when the concrete
cover is fully carbonated. Thus, the ANN model corroborates with
current research related to studies of concrete structures lifespan,
aiming a viable concrete industry in the sense of sustainability
and durability.
Moreover, results point out that new tools employing artificial
intelligence, especially artificial neural networks, can be used to
solve problems related to civil and materials engineering. The
models developed by these techniques may be disseminated in
the technical environment by only adding a friendly interface.
We will now focus on exploring another Artificial Intelligence
technique (such as Extreme Learning Machines and Support Vector
Machine) to analyze its performance to model the carbonation of
concrete and to develop a friendly software that may predict the
carbonation depth and the corrosion initiation time.
CRediT authorship contribution statement
Emerson F. Felix: Conceptualization, Software, Data curation,
Validation, development, Writing-original draft. Rogério
Carrazedo: Funding acquisition, Supervision, Writing - review &
editing. Edna Possan: Funding acquisition, Conceptualization,
Supervision, Writing - review & editing.
Declaration of Competing Interest
The authors declare that they have no known competing finan-
cial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared
to influence the work reported in this paper.
Acknowledgments
The research supported by the Brazilian National Council for
Scientific and Technological Development (CNPq 141078/2018
and CNPq 310564/2018-2) is gratefully acknowledged. This study
was also financed in part by the Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento
de Pessoal de Nível Superior - Brasil (CAPES) - Finance Code 001.
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